Primerica Inc (PRI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Primerica fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Primerica 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Nicole Russell, SVP, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係資深副總裁 Nicole Russell。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Primerica's fourth quarter earnings call.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加 Primerica 第四季財報電話會議。

A copy of our press release, issued last night, along with other materials relevant to today's call are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. Joining me on our call today are Chief Executive Officer, Glenn Williams; and our Chief Financial Officer, Tracy Tan.

我們昨晚發布的新聞稿副本以及與今天的電話會議相關的其他資料已發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有執行長 Glenn Williams；以及我們的財務長 Tracy Tan。

Our comments this morning may contain forward-looking statements in accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Litigation Reform Act. We assume no obligations to update these statements to reflect new information, and refer you to our most recent Form 10-K filing as may be modified by subsequent Form 10-Q for a list of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed or implied.

根據《證券訴訟改革法》的安全港規定，我們今天上午的評論可能包含前瞻性聲明。我們不承擔更新這些聲明以反映新資訊的義務，並請您參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格文件，該表格可能會被後續的 10-Q 表格修改，以獲取可能導致實際結果與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性清單。

We also reference certain non-GAAP measures, which we believe provide additional insight into the company's financial results. Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to their respective GAAP numbers are included at the end of our earnings release, and are available on our Investor Relations website.

我們也參考了某些非公認會計準則指標，我們認為這些指標可以為了解公司的財務表現提供更多見解。非 GAAP 指標與各自 GAAP 數據的對帳包含在我們的收益報告末尾，也可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

I would now like to turn the call over to Glenn.

現在我想把電話轉給格倫。

Thank you, Nicole, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Our fourth quarter and full year results highlight an outstanding year for Primerica, with record-breaking results across the board. These range from the expansion of our distribution network to achieving unprecedented investment sales and delivering solid financial performance. These milestones highlight the strength of our business and our ability to create value for all stakeholders.

謝謝你，妮可，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們的第四季和全年業績凸顯了 Primerica 出色的一年，各項業績均創下新高。這些包括擴大我們的分銷網絡、實現前所未有的投資銷售額以及實現穩健的財務表現。這些里程碑凸顯了我們業務的實力以及為所有利害關係人創造價值的能力。

Starting with a quick recap of our financial results. Fourth quarter adjusted net operating income increased 11% compared to the prior year period, while diluted adjusted operating income per share increased 17%. On a full year basis, adjusted net operating income increased 14% and adjusted operating income per share increased 20%. These results reflected very strong sales volume and higher client asset values in our Investment and Savings Products segment and the steady contribution from our large in-force block of Term Life insurance premiums.

首先快速回顧一下我們的財務結果。第四季調整後淨營業收入較去年同期成長 11%，每股攤薄調整後營業收入成長 17%。全年調整後營業淨收入成長14%，調整後每股營業收入成長20%。這些結果反映了我們投資和儲蓄產品部門非常強勁的銷售量和更高的客戶資產價值，以及我們大量有效定期人壽保險費的穩定貢獻。

During the year, we repurchased $425 million of our common stock and paid a total of $113 million in regular dividends. In total, we returned 79% of adjusted net operating income to our stockholders in 2024. Taking into consideration the predictable nature of our cash flows, in November 2024, our Board of Directors approved a new $450 million share repurchase program for 2025.

本年度，我們回購了價值 4.25 億美元的普通股，並支付了總計 1.13 億美元的定期股息。整體而言，我們在 2024 年向股東返還了 79% 的調整後淨營業收入。考慮到我們現金流量的可預測性，2024 年 11 月，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 2025 年 4.5 億美元股票回購計畫。

Our distribution performance during the fourth quarter capped off a remarkable year of growth at Primerica. During the quarter, we recruited more than 95,000 individuals, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. We also saw a 12% increase in the number of individuals obtaining a new life license. This double-digit growth in new life licenses during 2024 reflects the growing demand for additional income and alternative career choices as well as improvements we've made to our licensing process in recent years.

我們第四季的分銷業績為 Primerica 的顯著增長年畫上了圓滿的句號。本季度，我們招募了超過 95,000 名員工，與去年同期相比成長了 6%。我們還發現獲得新人壽保險執照的人數增加了 12%。2024 年新壽執照數量的兩位數增長反映了對額外收入和其他職業選擇日益增長的需求，以及我們近年來對執照頒發流程所做的改進。

We ended the year with a record high 151,611 life license representatives, up 7% compared to year-end 2023. 25,493 of these life licensed representatives also held a securities license at year-end. Looking ahead, we expect to continue growing the life sales force, albeit at a more normalized pace of around 3% in 2025.

截至今年年底，我們的人壽保險執照代表數量達到創紀錄的 151,611 名，比 2023 年底增加了 7%。其中 25,493 名人壽保險執照代表在年底也持有證券執照。展望未來，我們預期人壽銷售隊伍將持續成長，到 2025 年，成長速度將更加正常，約 3%。

Now let's turn to our sales results, starting with Term Life. We issued nearly 89,700 policies during the fourth quarter and $30 billion in new term life protection for middle-income families. Productivity remained within our normal historical range at an average monthly rate of 0.20 new policies issued per life license representatives.

現在讓我們來看看我們的銷售業績，從定期壽險開始。我們在第四季度簽發了近 89,700 份保單，並為中等收入家庭提供了 300 億美元的新定期人壽保險。生產力維持在正常的歷史範圍內，平均每位人壽執照代表每月簽發 0.20 份新保單。

While we're encouraged by our momentum in expanding our distribution reach, we also recognize the continued high cost of living on the families we serve. Balancing the benefit of a larger sales force with the challenges posed by these cost of living headwinds, we're taking a conservative outlook for 2025 and anticipate full year issued life policies to grow around 2%.

雖然我們對擴大分銷範圍的勢頭感到鼓舞，但我們也意​​識到我們所服務的家庭的生活成本仍然很高。在擴大銷售團隊帶來的好處與生活成本逆風帶來的挑戰之間取得平衡，我們對 2025 年持保守態度，預計全年發行的人壽保險單將增長 2% 左右。

Our Investment and Savings Product business had another strong quarter, with sales of $3.3 billion, up 41% year-over-year. This growth was driven by solid demand for investment products across all major product lines. Client asset values ended the year at $112 billion, up 16% compared to 2023, while net client inflows for the quarter totaled $731 million, significantly higher than inflows of $172 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

我們的投資和儲蓄產品業務又度過了一個強勁的季度，銷售額達到 33 億美元，年增 41%。這一成長是由所有主要產品線的投資產品強勁需求所推動的。年底客戶資產價值達到 1,120 億美元，較 2023 年成長 16%，而本季淨客戶流入總額為 7.31 億美元，遠高於 2023 年第四季的 1.72 億美元流入量。

For the full year, robust client demand across all product -- investment products fueled growth in new sales. Enhanced benefits on variable annuity products continue to fuel demand for clients seeking income protection and retirement, contributing to a 44% increase in VA sales in 2024. Additionally, managed account sales grew by 47%, driven in part by our new managed account platform, which offers clients a broader range of product choices and provides representatives with enhanced planning tools to better serve client needs.

全年來看，客戶對所有產品－投資產品的強勁需求推動了新銷售的成長。變額年金產品的福利增強持續刺激尋求收入保障和退休的客戶的需求，推動 2024 年 VA 銷售額成長 44%。此外，託管帳戶銷售額成長了 47%，部分原因是我們的新託管帳戶平台，該平台為客戶提供了更廣泛的產品選擇，並為代表提供了增強的規劃工具，以更好地滿足客戶需求。

Finally, strong equity markets continue to support demand for mutual funds in both the US and Canada. Preliminary results in January show strong momentum, but we remain mindful of economic and market uncertainties. These factors, combined with more challenging year-over-year comparisons as the year progresses, lead us to expect full year sales growth in the mid- to high single-digit range during 2025.

最後，強勁的股票市場持續支撐美國和加拿大對共同基金的需求。一月份的初步結果顯示出強勁勢頭，但我們仍然關注經濟和市場的不確定性。這些因素，加上隨著時間的推移，年比比較將變得更加困難，使得我們預計 2025 年全年銷售額成長率將達到中高個位數。

We remain well positioned to take advantage of the improving mortgage lending market and the role we can play in helping new income families obtain a new mortgage or consolidate consumer debt. In 2024, we closed nearly $400 million in US mortgage volume, a 35% increase compared to the prior year. At year-end 2024, we were licensed to do business in 33 states through nearly 3,200 license representatives. We also have a referral program in Canada, which allows us to offer similar benefits to our Canadian clients.

我們仍然能夠利用不斷改善的抵押貸款市場以及我們在幫助新收入家庭獲得新抵押貸款或整合消費者債務方面所能發揮的作用。2024 年，我們完成了近 4 億美元的美國抵押貸款額度，比前一年增長了 35%。截至 2024 年底，我們已透過近 3,200 名授權代表獲得了在 33 個州開展業務的許可。我們在加拿大也有一個推薦計劃，這使我們能夠為加拿大客戶提供類似的福利。

As we look ahead to 2025, our plan is to continue expanding our distribution capabilities across all product lines, while identifying opportunities to improve productivity and maintain the financial discipline needed to maximize profitability. We appreciate your continued support and look forward to sharing more updates as we progress through the year.

展望 2025 年，我們的計劃是繼續擴大所有產品線的分銷能力，同時尋找提高生產力和保持最大化盈利能力所需的財務紀律的機會。我們感謝您一直以來的支持，並期待今年分享更多更新。

With that, I'll hand it over to Tracy.

說完這些，我就把它交給 Tracy。

Thank you, Glenn. Good morning, everyone. In my prepared remarks today, I will review our fourth quarter financial results and then provide an outlook for key financial measures for 2025.

謝謝你，格倫。大家早安。在今天的準備發言中，我將回顧我們第四季度的財務業績，然後對 2025 年的主要財務指標進行展望。

We ended the year with great momentum, reaching the $3 billion revenue mark for the first time, and delivering strong performance for our stockholders.

我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，首次達到了 30 億美元的收入大關，並為股東帶來了強勁的業績。

Starting with Term Life segment. Fourth quarter revenue of $451 million increased 4% compared to the prior year period, driven by 6% higher adjusted direct premiums.

從定期壽險部分開始。第四季營收為 4.51 億美元，較去年同期成長 4%，這得益於調整後的直接保費成長 6%。

Looking more closely at our financial ratios. The benefits and claims ratio during the fourth quarter of 2024 was 58.6% compared to 58.2% in the prior year. Benefits and claims were adversely affected by a $4.2 million remeasurement loss recognized during the period, that resulted from a refinement to our actuarial model for estimating reserves, which was not related to any assumption changes.

更仔細地審視我們的財務比率。2024 年第四季的福利和索賠比率為 58.6%，而前一年為 58.2%。福利和索賠受到本期間確認的 420 萬美元重估損失的不利影響，該損失是由於我們對估計準備金的精算模型進行了改進，與任何假設變化無關。

Excluding the model refinement, the benefits and claims ratio was 57.9%, favorable to the prior year period, primarily due to better mortality experience and in line with our full year guidance of around 58%. The debt amortization and insurance commissions ratio at 12.2% was largely consistent with the prior year period. Overall, last rates remain elevated, but year-over-year trends appear to be stabilizing.

不計模型改進，福利和索賠比率為 57.9%，優於去年同期，主要由於更好的死亡率體驗，並符合我們全年約 58% 的指導。債務攤銷及保險佣金比率為12.2%，與去年同期基本一致。總體而言，最後利率仍然較高，但同比趨勢似乎穩定。

We believe persistency will normalize over time. While we recognize that higher lapses can constrain future ADP growth, they have not meaningfully affected our key financial ratio.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，堅持將會變得正常化。雖然我們認識到更高的失誤率可能會限制未來 ADP 的成長，但它們並未對我們的關鍵財務比率產生重大影響。

The fourth quarter insurance expense ratio increased from 7.1% in the prior year period to 8% in 2024. This year-over-year change was driven primarily by increased variable expenses associated with growth in direct premiums, recruiting and licensing, higher performance-based employee incentive compensation as well as higher ongoing technology investments in digital tools.

第四季保險費用率從去年同期的 7.1% 上升至 2024 年的 8%。這一同比變化主要是由於直接保費、招聘和許可增長導致的變動費用增加、基於績效的員工激勵薪酬增加以及對數位工具的持續技術投資增加。

Finally, the Term Life operating margin was 21.3% compared to 22.6% in the prior year period, while pretax income remains unchanged year-over-year.

最後，定期壽險的營業利潤率為 21.3%，而去年同期為 22.6%，而稅前收入與去年同期相比保持不變。

As we look ahead, we expect ADP growth of around 5% in 2025. We believe the benefits and claims ratio and the DAC amortization and insurance commissions ratio will remain stable at around 58% and 12%, respectively.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年 ADP 成長率將達到 5% 左右。我們認為，福利和索賠比率以及 DAC 攤提和保險佣金比率將分別保持穩定在 58% 和 12% 左右。

For the full year, we expect the operating margin to be around 22%, although we foresee some level of variability due to the normal seasonality inherent in insurance expenses. As a reminder, our first quarter expenses are usually higher due to the grant of management equity awards to the retirement-eligible employees that are fully expensed when granted, as well as other employee-related and operational expenses unique to the first quarter.

我們預計全年營業利潤率將在 22% 左右，但由於保險費用固有的正常季節性，我們預計會出現一定程度的波動。提醒一下，我們的第一季費用通常較高，因為向符合退休條件的員工授予了管理股權獎勵，這些獎勵在授予時已全額計入費用，以及第一季特有的其他員工相關費用和營運費用。

Turning next to the Investment and Savings Products segment. Fourth quarter revenues of $286 million increased 29% due to a combination of favorable equity market conditions, driving client asset values higher, and strong demand for our investment solutions. Pretax income of $82 million increased 31%.

接下來討論投資和儲蓄產品部分。第四季營收為 2.86 億美元，成長 29%，這得益於有利的股票市場條件、客戶資產價值的提高以及對我們投資解決方案的強勁需求。稅前收入 8,200 萬美元，成長 31%。

Sales-based revenues increased 42%, while revenue generating sales rose 39%. Revenues grew at a higher rate than sales due to continued strong demand for variable annuity, while sales-based commission expenses generally rose in line with correlated sales. Asset-based revenues increased 27%, slightly outpacing the growth in average client asset values due to continued growth in the US managed accounts and Canadian mutual funds sold under the proprietary distributor model for which we earn higher asset-based fees. Asset-based commission expenses grew at a similar pace to correlated revenues when including commissions on Canadian segregated funds which are recognized as insurance commissions and debt amortization.

銷售收入成長 42%，而創收銷售額成長 39%。由於變額年金的需求持續強勁，收入成長率高於銷售額成長率，而基於銷售的佣金支出通常與相關銷售額同步成長。資產型收入成長了 27%，略高於平均客戶資產價值的成長，這是由於美國管理帳戶和自營經銷商模式下銷售的加拿大共同基金持續成長，我們從中獲得了更高的資產型費用。當包括被視為保險佣金和債務攤銷的加拿大獨立基金佣金時，基於資產的佣金支出的成長速度與相關收入的成長速度相似。

The Corporate and Other Distributed Products segment incurred a pretax adjusted operating loss up $1 million during the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to a pretax adjusted operating loss of $5.4 million in the prior year period. The improvement was due in part to a $3.3 million adjustment to the ceded reserve for a closed block of long-term life insurance business in the prior year period and $2.6 million of higher net investment income as the segment continues to benefit from higher yielding investments and the growth in the size of the portfolio. The segment also incurred higher operating expenses, which I will address shortly when I review total consolidated operating expenses.

2024 年第四季度，企業及其他分銷產品部門的稅前調整後營業虧損增加 100 萬美元，而去年同期的稅前調整後營業虧損為 540 萬美元。業績改善的部分原因是，去年同期對長期人壽保險業務已關閉部分已轉讓準備金進行了 330 萬美元的調整，以及由於該部門繼續受益於收益更高的投資和投資組合規模的增長，淨投資收入增加了 260 萬美元。該部門還產生了更高的營運費用，我將在審查合併總營運費用時盡快解決這個問題。

Our invested asset portfolio ended the year with a net unrealized loss of $206 million versus a net unrealized loss of $131 million at the end of September. We believe the change in unrealized losses during the quarter was a function of interest rate movements and not underlying credit concerns, and we have no present intention to dispose of them. The portfolio is well diversified and of high quality with an average rating of eight.

我們投資的資產組合在年底的淨未實現損失為 2.06 億美元，而 9 月底的淨未實現損失為 1.31 億美元。我們認為本季未實現損失的變化是利率變動的結果，而不是潛在的信貸問題，我們目前無意處理這些損失。該投資組合多元化且品質較高，平均評級為 8 分。

Finally, fourth quarter consolidated insurance and other operating expenses were $152 million, up 13% year-over-year. The primary drivers of expense growth were higher variable costs associated with growth of our ISP and Term Life segment, higher employee-related incentive compensation due to the company's overall strong performance in 2024 as well as increased investments on technology.

最後，第四季合併保險和其他營運費用為 1.52 億美元，年增 13%。費用成長的主要驅動因素是與我們的 ISP 和定期壽險部門成長相關的更高的可變成本、由於公司 2024 年整體強勁的表現而導致的更高的員工相關激勵薪酬以及對技術的投資增加。

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect full year consolidated insurance and other operating expenses to increase by around $40 million or 6% to 8%. This includes $12 million to support the growth in the business, $12 million in higher employee staffing costs and $16 million higher technology costs.

展望 2025 年，我們預計全年合併保險和其他營運費用將增加約 4,000 萬美元，即 6% 至 8%。其中包括 1,200 萬美元用於支持業務成長、1,200 萬美元增加員工成本和 1,600 萬美元增加技術成本。

As I mentioned earlier, we expect operating expenses on a dollar basis to be elevated in the first quarter, with year-over-year growth rate in line with our full year guidance. We also expect fourth quarter 2025 expenses to normalize compared to prior year due to strong performance driven in 2024 higher expenses.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計第一季的營運費用（以美元計算）將會上升，年成長率與我們的全年預期一致。我們也預計，由於 2024 年業績強勁導致支出增加，2025 年第四季的支出將與去年相比恢復正常。

Moving to our capital position. The holding company had cash and invested assets of $497 million at the end of December 2024. As of December 31, 2024, Primerica Life's estimated RBC ratio was 430%.

轉向我們的資本地位。截至 2024 年 12 月底，該控股公司擁有現金和投資資產 4.97 億美元。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，Primerica Life 的估計 RBC 比率為 430%。

With that, operator, I'll open the line for questions.

接線員，現在我可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

威爾瑪伯迪斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Could you talk about -- is 5% ADP growth, a good run rate? Or is there still a boost in that figure from the IPO reinsurance transaction?

您能談談—5% 的 ADP 成長率是否是一個好的運作率嗎？或者 IPO 再保險交易仍會推動這一數字的成長？

Good morning, Wilma. ADP growth guidance of 5% growth has considered the runoff of insurance. And clearly, the ADP growth is directly impacted by the large in-force block that we have and the premiums that it continues to generate as well as the new sales that get layered on. And we also have considered the higher lapses in this guidance as well. So the 5% does consider the coinsurance runoff, as you know, that is running off at a faster pace, that's being considered as well.

早上好，威瑪。ADP 5%的成長指引已將保險業務的流失納入考量。顯然，ADP 的成長直接受到我們擁有的大量有效保險塊、其持續產生的保費以及分層的新銷售額的影響。我們也考慮到了該指導中的更大失誤。因此，5% 確實考慮了共同保險的流失，如您所知，它的流失速度更快，這也被考慮在內。

Okay. Great. And then could you talk about what's driving the strong ISP sales despite a little bit of pressure on the life side due to cost of living pressures? And then along those same lines, how do you see lapses trending into 2025? Is there some evidence that we put a peak?

好的。偉大的。那麼，您能否談談，儘管生活成本壓力導致生活方面面臨一些壓力，但是是什麼推動了 ISP 銷售強勁？那麼，按照同樣的思路，您認為到 2025 年失誤的趨勢會是如何呢？有證據表明我們達到了頂峰嗎？

Sure. Let me take the first part of that, and then we'll turn to Tracy for the lapses, Wilma.

當然。讓我先講第一部分，然後我們再請特蕾西和威爾瑪來糾正失誤。

Yeah. Fortunately, our two businesses are complementary, but they also have different dynamics that drive them in different directions at different times. And I think that's part of the uniqueness of our model. So while we are seeing cost of living pressures that are a headwind for our life business and even for the small transaction business on the ISP side, the systematic savers, often they are saving $25, $50, $100 a month. They're under the same kind of budgeting pressures at home that are our life -- they're the same people as our life clients. So they're experiencing the same pressures.

是的。幸運的是，我們的兩項業務是互補的，但它們也具有不同的動力，導致它們在不同時期朝著不同的方向發展。我認為這是我們模型的獨特之處。因此，雖然我們看到生活成本壓力對我們的人壽業務甚至 ISP 方面的小額交易業務造成不利影響，但係統儲蓄者通常每月可以節省 25 美元、50 美元甚至 100 美元。他們在家裡面臨著與我們一樣的預算壓力——他們和我們的生活客戶是同一群人。所以他們承受著同樣的壓力。

What we see that's a little bit -- or a lot exempt from that are those that are rolling over retirement plans, potentially or moving retirement plans, either out of the 401(k) from a former employer or out of a previous plan sponsor over to Primerica. Those aren't generally impacted by cost of living. They are retirement plans, so people are not prone to withdraw from them as often either. So that lends a little stickier.

我們看到，那些正在展期退休計劃（可能為或轉移退休計劃）的人有一點或很大程度上不受此限制，這些退休計劃要么來自前雇主的 401（k），要么來自先前的計劃發起人，轉移到 Primerica。這些通常不受生活成本的影響。它們是退休計劃，因此人們也不太容易經常退出。因此這會讓事情變得更加棘手。

So the bigger tickets aren't impacted by cost of living pressure. And that's really what drives the volume in a significant way or the large sales. It takes a lot of small sales to add up to one large sale as you know. And so those large sales, that money is still in motion. I think we're experiencing that. And I think most of our peers are experiencing a lot of movement between big accounts. And so we're benefiting from that and not experiencing the headwind from cost of living on that front.

因此，大額票不會受到生活成本壓力的影響。這才是真正推動銷售或大銷售的因素。如您所知，需要大量的小額銷售才能累積成一筆大額銷售。因此，這些大額銷售額和資金仍在流動中。我認為我們正在經歷這樣的事情。我認為我們的大多數同行都經歷了大帳戶之間的大量流動。因此，我們從中受益，也沒有遭遇生活成本方面的阻力。

Tracy, do you want to talk a little bit about how we see persistency?

崔西，你想談談我們如何看待堅持嗎？

That's right. I will. On the persistency and the last experience for 2024, overall, we continue to see elevated lapses, but we have seen the trend stabilizing. Fourth quarter, clearly, there was a leveling of lapses. So we're not seeing that increasing on a year-over-year basis.

這是正確的。我會。就持久性和 2024 年的最後經驗而言，總體而言，我們繼續看到失誤率上升，但我們已經看到趨勢趨於穩定。第四季度，明顯出現了失誤。因此，我們並沒有看到這一數字同比增長。

One thing I definitely want to point out is 2024, we had adverse impact from the prior year last restriction. So overall, '24, if you remove that, less restriction, the 2024 trending is coming down in terms of the lapse elevation levels.

我肯定想指出的一件事是，2024 年，我們受到了前一年最後一次限制的不利影響。所以整體而言，如果去掉 24 這個限制，那麼從海拔遞減水準來看，2024 年的趨勢將會下降。

And also higher lapses are across multiple durations, but mostly pronounced in earlier durations of two to five, for example. And the persistency for those, when we look at it on a cumulative basis, is actually really improving and slightly better on a cumulative basis than pre-pandemic period.

而且較高的失誤會跨越多個持續時間，但大多數發生在較早的持續時間（例如 2 至 5）內。從累積的角度來看，這些因素的持久性實際上確實在改善，並且比疫情前略有改善。

So during the pandemia period, we had extraordinarily low lapses. Those that would have lapsed stayed on with those policies and after the pandemic, and we see elevated lapses because of the catch-up. But overall, the cumulative impact, when we look at from the 2020 forward, is actually better than pandemic period now.

因此，在疫情期間，我們的失誤率極低。那些本來會失效的政策仍然繼續執行，但在疫情過後，由於追趕，我們看到失效的情況增加。但總體而言，從 2020 年來看，累積影響實際上比現在的疫情時期更好。

And we also believe that the higher lapses is mostly driven by the cost of living pressure on the middle-income families, which it takes a few years for them to get back, and it depends on the speed and the degree with which they're purchasing power and the ability to afford improves. But over time, we do believe that we will be returning to our normal levels. And our ADP guidance also already considered those elevated lapses as well. So I hope that helps, Wilma.

我們也認為，較高的失繳率主要是由於中等收入家庭的生活成本壓力所致，他們需要幾年時間才能收回成本，這取決於他們購買力和負擔能力提高的速度和程度。但隨著時間的推移，我們確實相信我們將恢復到正常水平。我們的 ADP 指導也已經考慮到了這些高額失誤。所以我希望這會有所幫助，威爾瑪。

Wilma, did that get you what you needed? Or is there more we can share?

威爾瑪，這樣你就得到你想要的東西了嗎？或者我們可以分享更多嗎？

No. I think that covers it.

不。我想這就涵蓋了。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇、派珀·桑德勒。

Just kind of building on that comment about cost of living pressures and is taking a couple of years to correct. What's the expected duration of that catch-up? And can that really be corrected with that improvement in the cost of living?

只是基於關於生活成本壓力的評論，需要幾年的時間來糾正。預計追趕過程將持續多久？那麼，生活成本的改善真的能夠改變這一現狀嗎？

I think we are going to need to see more improvement in the cost of living. So I think there's a buildup of high expenses of people bridging their budget with withdrawn savings and credit card usage while it's going on. And so that would indicate that we need improvement for a sustained period of time before we start to see it flow through and see some easing of people's buying habits when it comes to buying life insurance or small investments.

我認為我們需要看到生活成本有更多改善。因此，我認為，在這種情況下，人們透過提取儲蓄和使用信用卡來彌補預算，從而導致支出增加。因此，這表明我們需要持續一段時間的改進，然後才能開始看到它的實施，並看到人們在購買人壽保險或小額投資時的購買習慣有所緩和。

So I think that's a complete guess, John, to know exactly how long it takes because we're not sure how much longer the cost-of-living pressures might be here. We saw a little bit of a surprise this morning. I think the market reacted to that they're still here. They haven't gone away.

所以我認為這完全是一個猜測，約翰，要知道具體需要多長時間，因為我們不確定這裡的生活成本壓力還會持續多久。今天早上我們看到了一點驚喜。我認為市場對他們仍然在這裡做出了反應。他們還沒走。

But I would say, once we get on the other side of things, get normalized, you measure that in a year or more, that you'll still see some of that impact. It will improve over time, and we're watching for in the numbers Tracy just described, we see it as well in persistency, obviously, as well as sales. But that's entirely just a guess. We don't have any empirical evidence to our formula for that. It's just consumer behavior.

但我想說，一旦我們進入另一個階段，使其正常化，你在一年或更長時間內衡量它，你仍然會看到一些影響。隨著時間的推移，它會有所改善，我們正在關注 Tracy 剛才描述的數字，顯然，我們也看到了它的持久性以及銷售額。但這完全只是猜測。我們的公式沒有任何經驗證據。這只是消費者行為。

My follow-up question with that, what's the opportunity in that backdrop to increase operational leverage through improved application speed automation? So maybe what took 10 minutes could take three and then it allows the application volume to increase and average agent to be more productive.

我的後續問題是，在這種背景下，透過提高應用程式速度自動化來增加營運槓桿的機會是什麼？因此，也許需要 10 分鐘才能完成的工作只需要 3 分鐘，這樣就可以增加申請量並提高平均代理的工作效率。

Sure. That's a great question and one that is on the top of our minds all the time. Tracy mentioned some of the expense numbers, and the largest numbers she mentioned was for technology -- higher technology costs. And those are some of the types of things in addition to reacting to regulatory demands and requirements and other costs of doing business, but we're always looking for a way to make our process easier for both clients and representatives under the assumption that you get two benefits.

當然。這是一個很好的問題，也是我們一直在思考的問題。特蕾西提到了一些支出數字，她提到的最大數字是技術費用——更高的技術成本。除了應對監管要求和要求以及其他營運成本之外，我們還會考慮這些事項，但我們始終在尋找一種方法，讓客戶和代表都能更輕鬆地完成我們的流程，同時保證您獲得雙重好處。

Number one is the more likely to complete the process themselves. Someone who's already motivated and in the purchasing process is more likely to follow through if it's easy, if it's short, if it's quick, convenient, and all of that. And obviously, that's more efficient as well. And then that frees up more time for our representatives to see more clients. Should there -- should the limit on their productivity be, I got more people to see that I can get to, often, it's not having enough people to see. So it doesn't solve that problem. But absolutely, that's a big part.

第一是更有可能自己完成這個過程。如果購買過程簡單、簡短、快速、方便等，那麼已經有購買動機並處於購買過程中的人就更有可能完成購買。顯然，這也更有效率。這樣我們的代表就有更多時間去見更多客戶。他們的生產力是否應該受到限制，我可以看到更多的人，但通常情況下，是沒有足夠的人可以看到。所以它並不能解決這個問題。但絕對而言，這是很重要的一部分。

And as we introduced our new product and process a couple of years ago for NextGen, we have significant improvements in all of that. And now, of course, we're going back through to see what the technology that has emerged in the last couple of years can help us in that area, both in the field as well as processing and issuing policies and doing that faster and more efficiently here in the home office. So all of that is on our technology menu to see what we can accomplish as we move through 2025.

幾年前，我們為 NextGen 推出了新產品和新流程，在所有這些方面都取得了顯著的進展。現在，我們當然要回顧過去幾年出現的技術能夠為我們在這一領域提供哪些幫助，無論是在現場還是在處理和發布政策，並在總部更快、更有效率地完成這些工作。因此，所有這些都在我們的技術選單上，以查看我們在 2025 年能夠取得什麼成就。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

The good VA activity, you're talking about how the large transactions drive volumes. There's a lot of money in motion. Is this a demographic tailwind that should persist?

良好的 VA 活動，您正在談論大額交易如何推動交易量。有大量資金在流動。這種人口順風趨勢會持續下去嗎？

It is driven by demographics as we see the older generations that have accumulated something moving that money to get into the best place for their next phase of life as they move from accumulation to distribution, and so there's definitely a piece of that. It's also the not quite ready for retirement or not preparing for retirement yet that are changing jobs and just changing careers. As more job changes happen, more people move their 401(k)s out of the previous employer.

這是由人口結構推動的，我們看到老一輩積累了一些財富，他們把錢轉移到最好的地方，為下一個人生階段做好準備，從積累轉向分配，所以肯定有這方面的原因。那些還沒有為退休做好準備或尚未準備退休的人也在換工作或換職業。隨著工作變動的增多，越來越多的人將自己的 401(k) 計劃從之前的雇主轉移出去。

So it's something that we're benefiting from at Primerica. We have long relationships with our clients. And generally, as you know, we're a middle market-focused company. So we may be a higher level of hands-on service to middle market clients than maybe some of our peers have. So as the demographics move in our favor in that range, we are there to kind of service those clients in a way that maybe some of our peers are not.

因此這是我們 Primerica 所受益的。我們與客戶保持長期的合作關係。總的來說，如您所知，我們是一家專注於中端市場的公司。因此，我們為中端市場客戶提供的實際服務水準可能比我們的一些同行更高。因此，隨著人口統計數據朝著有利於我們的方向發展，我們將以一些同行無法做到的方式為這些客戶提供服務。

So it is driven demographically. It's driven by more options as we stated, VAs particularly, with the income guarantees that are in there as people move into income mode. They want to make sure they don't outlive their income. So it's a combination of a lot of hard work on behalf of our team, both in the home office and the field, over the years to be ready. Product improvements and the demographic changes and then the consistency of -- we've had a couple of years of good market performance in a row that builds confidence where people are willing to look for alternatives and maybe improve the returns on their retirement accounts.

所以這是由人口因素所驅動的。正如我們所說，這是由更多的選擇推動的，特別是 VA，隨著人們進入收入模式，它提供了收入保障。他們想確保自己的收入不會耗盡。因此，為了做好準備，我們的團隊（無論是在總部還是在現場）多年來都付出了很多努力。產品改進和人口結構變化以及一致性——我們已經連續幾年擁有良好的市場表現，這建立了人們願意尋找替代方案並可能提高退休帳戶回報的信心。

So I think we have all four of those things working in our favor right now. And some of the conservatism that you heard is because of the uncertainty. It's not pessimism. It's just uncertainty as we move into a new administration with new policies and new methods, we're not sure how that's going to turn out. So we've kind of approached 2025 with a little bit of an air of conservatism based on those unknowns.

所以我認為現在這四件事都對我們有利。你所聽到的一些保守主義是由於不確定性所造成的。這不是悲觀主義。隨著我們進入新政府，實施新政策、新方法，這充滿不確定性，我們不確定結果會如何。因此，基於這些未知因素，我們對 2025 年抱持著一點保守的態度。

And then Tracy, anything on the mortality front? Any changes you might have observed either in the US or Canada?

那麼 Tracy，關於死亡方面有什麼事嗎？您在美國或加拿大觀察到了什麼變化嗎？

Yeah, Mark, the mortality front, our experiences have been very stable and favorable. So for entire 2024, we've been observing pretty positive trends on mortality. Both in the US and Canada, mortality is very, very low and really not much unfavorable experience to talk about, but US has seen real improvement and particularly in the fourth quarter. So we are hoping to see that continued trend, that would be beneficial.

是的，馬克，就死亡率而言，我們的經驗非常穩定且有利。因此，在整個 2024 年，我們一直觀察到死亡率相當正面的趨勢。在美國和加拿大，死亡率都非常低，確實沒有太多不利的經驗可談，但美國已經看到了真正的改善，特別是在第四季。因此我們希望看到這種趨勢持續下去，這將是有益的。

And in terms of long term, obviously, mortality is difficult to predict, but we do think that pandemic probably has taken off some of the population that now, there are some benefits on the mortality improvement that we've seen across the industry and we, in particular, with our demographics and the experience during pandemic certainly has a positive trend currently going on. I hope that helps, Mark.

從長期來看，死亡率顯然很難預測，但我們確實認為，這場大流行可能已經導致部分人口死亡，現在，我們看到整個行業的死亡率有所改善，這帶來了一些好處，特別是考慮到我們的人口統計數據和大流行期間的經驗，目前肯定出現了積極的趨勢。我希望這能有所幫助，馬克。

It does. And then final question, just for my edification, you said the remeasurement loss is not related to assumption changes but a refinement of the model. Can you say what that refinement was? Or is it more technical?

確實如此。然後是最後一個問題，僅供我參考，您說重新測量損失與假設變化無關，而是與模型的細化有關。你能說說這種改進是什麼嗎？或者說它更具技術性？

Yeah. The refinement is really more a technical software improvement that we've made on the actuarial side of calculation. And since we've moved down to LDTI, we continuously to look for ways to make our calculation more accurate and looking at ways to improve how we produce our results on the method side. So this really has nothing to do with either experience or long-term trends, assumption changes. So this is a really technical side item. And it's a small immaterial in the magnitude of [7 billion] of reserves that we have. Hope that helps.

是的。這種改進實際上更多的是我們在精算計算方面所做的技術軟體改進。自從我們轉向 LDTI 以來，我們一直在尋找方法來使我們的計算更加準確，並尋找方法來改進我們在方法方面產生結果的方式。所以這其實與經驗、長期趨勢、假設變化無關。所以這是一個真正技術性的附加項目。與我們擁有的 [70 億] 儲備相比，這只是微不足道的一點。希望有幫助。

It does.

確實如此。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特‧卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

So I wanted to focus on the Life segment just for a minute. It looked like the rep count was up, I guess, 7% year-over-year, but policies issued was up maybe 1%. And I guess, shouldn't we see a tighter sort of correlation between those two growth rates?

因此我想花一分鐘時間集中討論一下生活部分。我估計看起來代表數量同比增長了 7%，但簽發的政策可能增長了 1%。我想，我們不應該看到這兩個成長率之間有更緊密的相關性嗎？

Yeah. Generally, Suneet, there's been a very close relationship between the size of the sales force and our policy growth. Often there is a difference in timing on that. We did have a significant amount of growth in a relatively compressed period of time. And so one of our productivity dynamics that we're working on in 2025 is to bring that new class of licenses up to productivity level. And that's an opportunity on the upside for us in 2025.

是的。整體而言，Suneet，銷售團隊的規模和我們的政策成長之間存在著非常密切的關係。通常，時間上存在差異。在相對較短的時間內，我們確實實現了顯著的成長。因此，我們在 2025 年致力於的生產力動力之一就是將新類別的許可證提升到生產力水平。這對我們來說是2025年的一大機會。

The math of productivity works against you as you grow the sales force and the denominator gets larger, particularly with brand new reps, but we do think there's a lag there, as always, in getting them up to the average productivity level, but we believe there's some upside as we put it all together with the headwinds of the cost of living we talked about earlier and maybe some of the other uncertainty headwinds in middle income payments on the positive side, potential tailwinds or that productivity catch up, and we would expect to see some of that in 2025.

隨著銷售隊伍的擴大，分母變得越來越大，特別是對於全新的銷售代表來說，生產力的計算對你不利，但我們確實認為，在讓他們達到平均生產力水平方面總是存在滯後，但我們相信，當我們把這一切與我們之前談到的生活成本的阻力，以及中等收入支付中的一些其他不確定性阻力放在一起時，預計會有一些好處，

Got it. That makes sense. And then I guess if I heard correctly, it sounds like your guidance for life agent growth for 2025 is around 3%, which is lower than I think it's been historically. Is there something unusual about 2025? Or are you sort of getting to the point where the sales force is kind of so big, it just becomes harder to grow on top of these big numbers?

知道了。這很有道理。然後我想如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來您對 2025 年人壽保險代理人成長的預測是在 3% 左右，這低於我認為的歷史水平。2025 年有什麼不尋常的事嗎？或者說，你們是否已經到了銷售隊伍過於龐大的地步，以如此大的數字為基礎進行成長變得越來越困難？

I think it's a bit of us reverting to the mean, Suneet. If you look back in the years prior to that, our sales force growth has been around 4%-ish. I think prior to last year, over multiple years. And so we just see after a year where we had so many things go in our favor, just a dose of conservatism, and things reverting to average in the next year and kind of getting back to that range.

我認為我們有點回歸平均值了，Suneet。如果回顧之前的幾年，我們的銷售團隊成長率一直在 4% 左右。我認為在去年之前，已經過去了很多年。因此，我們看到，經過一年的時間，很多事情都對我們有利，只是有點保守，而到了第二年，事情就會恢復到平均水平，並回到那個範圍。

And so -- and again, the uncertainty of just not knowing what's in front of us this early in the year. As the year progresses, we'll refine that projection. So -- but it's starting out pretty close to what a normal year at Primerica is maybe just a little less, but that's the uncertainty factor in it.

所以——再說一次，我們只是不知道今年年初我們面臨什麼，這充滿不確定性。隨著時間的推移，我們將完善這項預測。所以 — — 但它的起點與 Primerica 的正常年份非常接近，可能只是少了一點，但這就是其中的不確定因素。

Got it. If I could just sneak one more in just on the VA. Do you currently sell the RILA product? Is that a big part of what you're selling these days?

知道了。如果我可以在 VA 上再偷偷地再來一次就好了。您目前銷售 RILA 產品嗎？這是你們目前銷售的大部分產品嗎？

Yeah. The index linked to variable annuity?

是的。與變額年金掛鉤的指數？

Correct.

正確的。

Yeah, we do. And we are seeing our product mix shift more and more towards that just like the industry is in a very similar kind of mix shift dynamic to the rest of the industry, with a significant proportion of the VA sales moving to the index-linked VA product.

是的，我們知道。我們看到我們的產品組合越來越多地朝著這個方向轉變，就像行業中其他產品的組合轉變動態非常相似一樣，相當一部分 VA 銷售轉向了與指數掛鉤的 VA 產品。

Dan Bergman, TD Cowen.

丹‧伯格曼 (Dan Bergman)，TD Cowen。

I guess to start with the higher share repurchase authorization for 2025 and a pretty big increase in the dividend, capital return looks like it will take another sizable step-up this year. Was there anything unusual in the 2024 statutory earnings? Is there any other onetime items that are boosting that? Or should we think of this as a pretty sustainable level going forward? And I guess, relatedly, what capital are trying to think was 79% of earnings in 2024, is that around where we should expect that ratio to remain longer term?

我想，首先從 2025 年更高的股票回購授權和股息的大幅增加開始，資本回報看起來今年將再次大幅提升。2024 年法定收益有什麼異常嗎？還有其他一次性物品可以促進這一點嗎？或者我們應該認為這是一個相當可持續的未來水準？我想，與此相關的是，資本試圖思考的是 2024 年收益的 79%，我們是否應該預期該比例會長期維持在這個水平？

Dan, this is a great question. One of the features of our Primerica business that we are very much focused on and continue to support, it's our ability to generate consistent, sustainable cash and capital return as a percent of earnings. And as you know, historically, we've been very strong on our business being able to generate free cash on a consistent basis, very resilient, regardless of the economics and environment that's going on, and that's what we continue to see.

丹，這是一個很好的問題。我們非常關注並將繼續支持的 Primerica 業務的特點之一是，我們能夠以一定百分比的收益產生一致、可持續的現金和資本回報。如您所知，從歷史上看，我們的業務一直非常強大，能夠持續產生免費現金，而且非常有彈性，無論經濟和環境如何，這也是我們繼續看到的。

So in 2024, we were able to return 79%, which is right around 80%. This also highlights our distribution model, which is that we're able to grow on a sustainable level and not tying up our capital as we scale up. And as you see the step-up on the share buyback and the dividend is another evidence of that continued trend. We're able to deliver around 80% in 2025.

因此，到 2024 年，我們的回報率為 79%，也就是 80% 左右。這也凸顯了我們的分銷模式，即我們能夠以可持續的水平成長，並且在擴大規模時不會佔用我們的資本。如您所見，股票回購和股利的增加是這一持續趨勢的另一個證據。我們能夠在 2025 年實現約 80% 的交付量。

So from a business model standpoint, the characteristics of our business model really helps provide that consistency. And we have been confident in terms of our features of our distribution model and the reinsurance of mortality that we have, along with our independent sales force that also helps with the upfront acquisition costs and the growth on operating expenses, all of those features help us provide this level of capital return as a percent of earnings, which is very much in line with a typical distribution model company, and this is what we are pretty much focused on. I hope that helps, Dan.

因此，從商業模式的角度來看，我們商業模式的特徵確實有助於提供這種一致性。我們對我們的分銷模式和死亡再保險的特點充滿信心，加上我們的獨立銷售隊伍也有助於降低前期收購成本和運營費用的增長，所有這些特點都幫助我們提供這種水平的資本回報率（佔收益的百分比），這與典型的分銷模式公司非常一致，這也是我們非常關注的。我希望這能有所幫助，丹。

Yeah. Very helpful. And then maybe --

是的。非常有幫助。然後也許--

Dan, let me answer the question about statutory. There's nothing unusual around that line, and we really are pretty much focused on having a very healthy capital at our insurance side of the business and the RBC ratio. We typically strive to be around 400%, and as much as possible, it's very conservative. That gives us plenty legroom as Glenn put out the vision to continue to drive the top line growth. We're very well positioned to provide that capital to drive our top line growth. Hope that helps, Dan.

丹，讓我回答有關法定的問題。這條線沒有什麼不尋常的，我們確實非常注重在保險業務方面擁有非常健康的資本和 RBC 比率。我們通常努力將其控制在 400% 左右，並且盡可能保持保守。當格倫提出繼續推動營收成長的願景時，這給了我們足夠的空間。我們完全有能力提供資本來推動我們的營收成長。希望這能有所幫助，丹。

Got it. Yeah, very, very helpful. And then maybe just switching gears a little bit, following up on the earlier comments around technology. It sounds like higher tech spend is a big driver of the growth in the insurance and operating expenses you're guiding to in 2025. So should we think of this higher technology spend as a new run rate going forward? Or are there any lumpy expenses in there that should subside going forward? I guess maybe said differently, what inning are you in regarding upgrading your technology capabilities? So any color just around that would be great.

知道了。是的，非常非常有幫助。然後可能只是稍微轉換一下主題，繼續之前關於技術的評論。聽起來，更高的技術支出是您所預測的 2025 年保險和營運費用成長的主要驅動力。那麼，我們是否應該將這種更高的技術支出視為未來新的運作率？或者其中是否存在一些大開支，這些開支在未來應該會減少嗎？我想也許換個說法，您在升級技術能力上處於什麼階段？因此，任何與其相近的顏色都可以。

Yeah. This is very much in line with looking at our capital return, how we use our cash. Part of other priority, in addition to generating very strong capital return as a percent of earnings to shareholders, the remaining cash is very much focused on supporting our growth in terms of having enough capital to support our insurance and noninsurance business as well as investing in organic growth. And we are very confident in our ability to drive our sales force to serve our clients, reach more demographics that we intend to help that's underserved.

是的。這與我們的資本回報以及我們如何使用現金非常一致。其他優先事項之一是，除了產生非常強勁的資本回報（佔股東收益的百分比）之外，剩餘現金還主要用於支持我們的成長，即擁有足夠的資本來支持我們的保險和非保險業務以及投資於有機增長。我們非常有信心，我們有能力推動我們的銷售團隊為客戶服務，並涵蓋更多我們想要幫助的、服務不足的人。

So that part of the organic investment into technology is very much in line with our strategic vision and long term to help improve productivity, both on the processing of transactions as well as our ability to provide unified communications with our sales team, sales force, improving client experiences. All of those are part of the technology improvement so that the client can have easier, better way to look at their investments, look at the -- handle the life insurance transactions, and also giving our sales force continued improvement on the tools to improve their productivity as well as our call center, making our call center more scalable to go along with a larger growth sales force as well as a number of transactions.

因此，對科技的部分有機投資非常符合我們的策略願景，並且從長遠來看有助於提高生產力，包括交易處理以及我們與銷售團隊、銷售人員提供統一溝通的能力，從而改善客戶體驗。所有這些都是技術改進的一部分，以便客戶可以更輕鬆、更好地查看他們的投資，查看——處理人壽保險交易，同時也讓我們的銷售人員不斷改進工具，以提高他們的生產力以及我們的呼叫中心，使我們的呼叫中心更具可擴展性，以適應更大的增長銷售隊伍和大量交易。

So in terms of trend, we're going to continue to well focusing on strong return for our stockholders using the remaining capital effectively to help support our organic growth.

因此，就趨勢而言，我們將繼續專注於為股東帶來豐厚回報，有效利用剩餘資本來幫助支持我們的有機成長。

Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

傑克‧馬滕 (Jack Matten)，BMO 資本市場。

So a follow-up question on the outlook for Term Life-issued policies. You talked about cost of living headwinds to put pressure on lapse rates. I'm wondering if you could unpack or quantify how much of a headwind it's been to sales levels over the past year and how much is influencing the guidance for 2% growth in mission policies this year? I think you mentioned they have been of a conservative estimate.

因此，後續問題是關於定期人壽保險單的前景。您談到了生活成本逆風對失效率造成的壓力。我想知道您是否可以解釋或量化過去一年對銷售水平造成的阻力有多大，以及對今年任務政策 2% 增長指導的影響有多大？我認為您提到它們都是保守估計。

Yeah, Jack, I don't think we've broken out exactly what we think our growth might have been if there wasn't headwind. So there's multiple factors playing. The economic headwinds, which, as I mentioned, were created not only by prices, but it's also a function of wage growth or lack thereof for our clients.

是的，傑克，我認為如果沒有逆風，我們的成長可能達到什麼程度我們還沒有完全弄清楚。所以有多種因素在起作用。正如我所提到的，經濟逆風不僅是由價格造成的，也是我們客戶薪資成長或缺乏成長的結果。

It's really difficult to say. If the cost of living had been neutral to middle-income families, we believe sales would have been what they were plus another percentage point or two or three or however many because there are so many other factors involved as well. We just know that the time we spend with clients, helping them prioritize their budgets in order to make room, because every dollar is in play when we sit down with the family.

這確實很難說。如果生活成本對中等收入家庭來說是中性的，我們相信銷售額將與現在持平，再加上兩個百分點、三個百分點或更多，因為還涉及許多其他因素。我們只知道，我們花在客戶身上的時間，是為了幫助他們確定預算的優先順序，以便騰出空間，因為當我們與家人坐下來時，每一美元都很重要。

It's not like they call us over and say, look, I've got this $80, $100 a month. I don't know what to do with. Can you come talk to me about life insurance? We're having to sit down and help them reprioritize their budgets. And that's where we identify the headwinds because as we look at budgets, there's not a lot of waste in them. And so we really have a tough prioritization discussion with clients to free up what they need to begin to protect their incomes and hopefully begin some type of small investment program.

他們不會叫我們過來說，看，我每個月有 80 美元、100 美元。我不知道該怎麼辦。你能來和我談談人壽保險嗎？我們必須坐下來幫助他們重新安排預算。這就是我們發現的阻力，因為當我們查看預算時，發現其中並沒有太多的浪費。因此，我們確實與客戶進行了艱難的優先排序討論，以釋放他們所需的資金來開始保護他們的收入，並希望開始某種小型投資計劃。

And so it's more of a qualitative reporting in some of our surveying that we do through our financial security monitor, you may be familiar with in the household budget index. All of that is to try to figure out exactly how much resistance is out there. But quantifying and saying it was -- we would have been 2% greater if we've had a neutral cost of living dynamics, a little difficult to do.

因此，在我們透過金融安全監測進行的一些調查中，它更像是一種定性報告，您可能熟悉家庭預算指數。所有這些都是為了弄清楚到底存在多大的阻力。但量化並說它是——如果我們的生活成本動態保持中性，我們的收入將會更高 2%，這有點困難。

So we know the headwinds out there. We know we've been able to overcome it last year. We grew in spite of the headwinds, and we are projecting that we can continue to grow. But we do know there's some resistance to growth as a result of that. So sorry, I can't give you something more specific on how much that is.

所以我們知道那裡的阻力。我們知道去年我們已經克服了它。儘管面臨逆風，我們仍然實現了成長，我們預計我們能夠繼續成長。但我們確實知道，這會導致一些成長阻力。很抱歉，我無法告訴你更具體的金額。

That's very helpful. And just a question on the ISP redemption rates, think like outflows as a percent of beginning assets have started to trend lower in recent quarters. I guess could you just talk about some of the drivers impacting that? I mean do you expect some upward pressure still from some of those cost-of-living challenges or even just given that client asset values are higher levels following kind of the strong market performance over the past couple of years?

這非常有幫助。關於 ISP 贖回率的一個問題，想想最近幾季流出量佔初始資產的百分比開始呈下降趨勢。我想您能否談談影響這現象的一些因素？我的意思是，您是否預計一些生活成本挑戰仍會帶來一些上行壓力，或者僅僅因為客戶資產價值在過去幾年強勁的市場表現之後處於較高水平？

Generally, it's going to be more driven at Primerica and in the smaller accounts and homes that are closer to the financial edge, redemptions are going to go up when money gets tight, and cost of living pressures happen. We coach our plants not to do that unless you have to. You're working against yourself by redeeming.

一般來說，Primerica 和較小帳戶以及更接近財務邊緣的房屋的贖回率會更高，當資金緊張和生活成本壓力加大時，贖回率就會上升。我們訓練我們的植物不要這樣做，除非你必須這樣做。你在透過救贖來對抗自己。

But one buffer against that is three-fourth of our accounts are retirement accounts. They're for long term. And often, if they are IRAs or other types of qualified plans, registered plans in Canada, their penalties for withdrawal. So that's another kind of offense around the accounts that prevent them from just putting and taking. We also recommend that people set up an emergency fund, and that's the put and take to account.

但有一個緩衝因素，那就是我們的四分之三的帳戶都是退休帳戶。它們是長期的。通常，如果它們是 IRA 或其他類型的合格計劃，即在加拿大註冊的計劃，則會受到提款處罰。因此，這是針對帳戶的另一種違法行為，阻止他們隨意訪問。我們也建議人們設立應急基金，並將其存入帳戶。

So the result of all that is we do believe that we have significantly fewer redemptions percentage-wise than most of the companies in our space. It comes from the good coaching. It comes from primarily long-range retirement planning, and so we protect and build against that and teach continuing to systematically invest in good times and bad.

因此，我們確實相信，從百分比來看，我們的贖回率比我們這個領域的大多數公司都要低得多。它源自於良好的指導。它主要來自於長期退休計劃，因此我們保護並建立它，並教導人們在順境和逆境中繼續有系統地投資。

But we do see that move a little bit with the cost of living. Fortunately, we haven't seen it move a lot. And again, like the discussion we had earlier about what drives volume. The big accounts many times that are moving that are a significant part of our volume, the 401(k) and mature retirement accounts, those are people who are struggling quite as much month-to-month, and so they're not making large redemptions.

但我們確實看到生活成本有所改變。幸運的是，我們沒看到它有太大的移動。再次，就像我們之前討論的關於是什麼推動了銷售一樣。很多時候，大額帳戶的流動量很大，占我們帳戶總額的很大一部分，這些帳戶包括 401（k）和成熟退休帳戶，這些人每個月都在苦苦掙扎，所以他們不會進行大額贖回。

We see an increase in a number of smaller redemptions and tough economic times, but it doesn't really impact the large accounts as much as often, unless people go into distribution mode after they return, start a systematic withdrawal plan. But our withdrawal rate is very healthy, lower than the industry average, we believe, and we expect that to continue even if some financial stress does continue on families through 2025.

我們看到小額贖回的數量正在增加，並且在經濟困難時期有所增加，但這對大額帳戶的影響並不大，除非人們回來後進入分配模式，開始系統的提款計劃。但我們相信，我們的提款率非常健康，低於行業平均水平，我們預計，即使到 2025 年家庭仍將面臨一些財務壓力，這種情況仍將持續下去。

There are no further questions at this time. And with that, that does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。