賓州電力 (PPL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the PPL Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 PPL 公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andy Ludwig, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，該事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁安迪·路德維希 (Andy Ludwig)。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the PPL Corporation conference call on second quarter 2023 financial results. We have provided slides for this presentation on the Investors section of our website. We'll begin today's call with updates from Vince Sorgi, PPL President and CEO and Joe Bergstein, Chief Financial Officer. And we'll conclude with a Q&A session following our prepared remarks.

大家早上好，感謝您參加 PPL 公司關於 2023 年第二季度財務業績的電話會議。我們在我們網站的投資者部分提供了本次演示的幻燈片。我們將首先介紹 PPL 總裁兼首席執行官文斯·索爾吉 (Vince Sorgi) 和首席財務官喬·伯格斯坦 (Joe Bergstein) 的最新情況。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將以問答環節結束。

Before we get started, I'll draw your attention to Slide 2 in a brief cautionary statement. Our presentation today contains forward-looking statements about future operating results or other future events. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the appendix of this presentation and PPL's SEC filings for a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures including earnings from ongoing operations on this call. For reconciliation to the comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the appendix.

在我們開始之前，我將通過簡短的警告聲明提請您注意幻燈片 2。我們今天的演示包含有關未來經營業績或其他未來事件的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。請參閱本演示文稿的附錄和 PPL 向 SEC 提交的文件，了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的一些因素的討論。我們還將在本次電話會議上提及非公認會計準則衡量標準，包括持續經營業務的收益。如需與可比較的 GAAP 衡量標准進行調節，請參閱附錄。

I'll now turn the call over to Vince.

我現在將把電話轉給文斯。

Thank you, Andy, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter investor update. Let's start with our financial results and a few highlights from the quarter on Slide 4. Today, we announced second quarter reported earnings of $0.15 per share. Adjusting for special items, second quarter earnings from ongoing operations were $0.29 per share compared with $0.30 per share a year ago. Overall, second quarter results were in line with our expectations apart from the continued mild weather and storm activity in Kentucky and Pennsylvania, as this has been one of the most active storm years we've ever experienced. Between the mild weather and storm O&M, our year-to-date results were negatively impacted by about $0.09 per share compared to our original plan. But despite these impacts, we remain confident in our ability to deliver our 2023 ongoing earnings forecast of $1.50 to $1.65 per share with a midpoint of $1.58 per share.

謝謝你，安迪，大家早上好。歡迎來到我們的第二季度投資者更新。讓我們從幻燈片 4 中的財務業績和本季度的一些亮點開始。今天，我們宣布第二季度報告的每股收益為 0.15 美元。調整特殊項目後，第二季度持續運營收益為每股 0.29 美元，而去年同期為每股 0.30 美元。總體而言，除了肯塔基州和賓夕法尼亞州持續溫和的天氣和風暴活動之外，第二季度的業績符合我們的預期，因為這是我們經歷過的最活躍的風暴年份之一。在溫和天氣和風暴 O&M 的影響下，我們今年迄今的業績比我們最初的計劃受到了每股約 0.09 美元的負面影響。但儘管存在這些影響，我們仍然對實現 2023 年每股 1.50 至 1.65 美元（中值 1.58 美元）的持續盈利預測的能力充滿信心。

We have identified several areas in which we can offset the headwinds from weather and storms, and Joe will cover that in detail in his financial review. As you know, one area we remain extremely focused on is O&M, and we are on track to achieve the $50 million to $60 million targeted reductions this year. And despite the incremental storm expenses, we are tracking slightly ahead of our O&M forecast through June. We expect that trend to continue and improve through the second half of the year. In addition, today, we reaffirmed our projected earnings per share and dividend growth rates of 6% to 8% through at least 2026, as we remain confident in our low-risk business plan. This will be supported by our $12 billion capital investment plan and targeted O&M savings of at least $175 million by 2026 to advance a reliable, resilient, affordable and clean energy future.

我們已經確定了幾個可以抵消天氣和風暴不利影響的領域，喬將在他的財務審查中詳細介紹這一點。如您所知，我們仍然高度關注的一個領域是運維，我們今年有望實現 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的削減目標。儘管風暴費用有所增加，但我們的跟踪情況仍略高於 6 月份的運營和維護預測。我們預計這一趨勢將在今年下半年持續並有所改善。此外，今天，我們重申了至少到 2026 年每股收益和股息增長率預計為 6% 至 8%，因為我們對低風險業務計劃仍然充滿信心。我們將通過 120 億美元的資本投資計劃以及到 2026 年至少 1.75 億美元的運營和維護節省目標來支持這一目標，以推進可靠、有彈性、負擔得起的清潔能源未來。

Turning to a few second quarter operational highlights. We continue to deliver excellent reliability for our customers across our jurisdiction, again, despite the increased storm activity in both Kentucky and Pennsylvania. This is a direct result of our ongoing investments, not only in system hardening that prevents outages, but also smart grid technology and automation that enables us to respond more quickly when outages do occur. On the integration of Rhode Island Energy, we remain well positioned to complete our transition services with National Grid next year. We also continue to make progress on an important filing before the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission, as we seek to deploy advanced metering functionality across our service territory and build a smarter grid that supports the state's leading climate goals.

轉向第二季度的一些運營亮點。儘管肯塔基州和賓夕法尼亞州的風暴活動有所增加，但我們仍然繼續為我們管轄範圍內的客戶提供卓越的可靠性。這是我們持續投資的直接結果，不僅是在防止停電的系統強化方面，而且是在智能電網技術和自動化方面，使我們能夠在停電發生時更快地做出響應。在羅德島能源的整合方面，我們仍處於有利位置，可以在明年完成與國家電網的過渡服務。我們還繼續在羅德島公用事業委員會提交的一份重要文件上取得進展，我們尋求在我們的服務領域部署先進的計量功能，並建立一個更智能的電網來支持該州的領先氣候目標。

Hearings before the Rhode Island PUC were held in late July to review our business case and cost recovery proposals. We expect a decision on our AMF filing later this fall. We also remain on track with the Kentucky CPCN process, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide. Finally, we continue to receive awards for our industry-leading approach in grid innovation as both the Edison Electric Institute and the Southeastern Electric Exchange recognized PPL Electric Utilities for its groundbreaking use of dynamic line rating technology. PPL Electric is the first utility in the nation to integrate this technology with its transmission management system. DLR sensors provide real-time information that enables us to better utilize our existing transmission line capacity and reduce congestion on the grid. (inaudible) has also recognized the value that this technology can bring to the industry and better managing congestion on the transmission network.

羅德島州 PUC 於 7 月下旬舉行了聽證會，以審查我們的業務案例和成本回收提案。我們預計將於今年秋季晚些時候對 AMF 備案做出決定。我們還繼續推進肯塔基州 CPCN 流程，我將在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地介紹該流程。最後，我們繼續因其行業領先的電網創新方法而獲獎，愛迪生電力研究所和東南電力交易所都認可 PPL 電力公用事業公司突破性地使用動態線路評級技術。 PPL Electric 是美國第一家將該技術與其傳輸管理系統集成的公用事業公司。 DLR 傳感器提供實時信息，使我們能夠更好地利用現有的輸電線路容量並減少電網擁堵。 （聽不清）還認識到該技術可以給行業帶來的價值，並更好地管理傳輸網絡的擁塞。

Turning to Slide 5 and an update on the CPCN process in Kentucky. We remain focused on advancing our generation investment plan as we seek to replace 1,500 megawatts of aging coal generation with an affordable, reliable and cleaner energy mix by 2028. We remain confident our plan represents the best path forward for our Kentucky customers. As proposed, it would replace several 1970s era coal units with over 1,200 megawatts of new combined cycle natural gas generation, nearly 1,000 megawatts of solar generation and 125 megawatts of battery storage. In addition, it would establish more than a dozen new energy efficiency programs.

轉向幻燈片 5，了解肯塔基州 CPCN 流程的最新情況。我們仍然專注於推進我們的發電投資計劃，力求到2028 年用負擔得起、可靠和清潔的能源組合取代1,500 兆瓦老化的煤炭發電。我們仍然相信，我們的計劃代表了肯塔基州客戶的最佳前進道路。根據提議，它將用超過 1,200 兆瓦的新聯合循環天然氣發電、近 1,000 兆瓦的太陽能發電和 125 兆瓦的電池存儲取代幾個 1970 年代的燃煤機組。此外，還將製定十多個新的能源效率計劃。

In May, the Kentucky Public Service Commission approved our request to consolidate the CPCN filing and our generation retirement request as required by Senate Bill 4. The commission approved the consolidation while keeping the CPCN procedural schedule largely unchanged. For the schedule, intervenor testimony was filed July 14 with no real surprises. Next up is our rebuttal testimony due August 9, followed by an info conference scheduled for August 15 to explore a potential settlement. Public hearings are then set to begin August 22 and could last several days. Again, we are very confident that the plan we've proposed is in our customers and the state's best interest but we are also open to settlement discussions with the parties to the case. Ultimately, with or without a settlement, we anticipate a decision on our filings from the commission by November 6. That concludes my strategic and operational update.

5 月，肯塔基州公共服務委員會批准了我們根據參議院第 4 號法案的要求合併 CPCN 備案和一代退休請求的請求。委員會批准了合併，同時保持 CPCN 程序時間表基本不變。對於日程安排，干預者證詞於 7 月 14 日提交，這並不令人意外。接下來是我們將於 8 月 9 日提交的反駁證詞，隨後定於 8 月 15 日召開信息會議，探討潛在的和解方案。公開聽證會將於 8 月 22 日開始，可能持續數天。同樣，我們非常有信心我們提出的計劃符合我們的客戶和國家的最大利益，但我們也願意與案件各方進行和解討論。最終，無論是否達成和解，我們預計委員會將在 11 月 6 日之前對我們提交的文件做出決定。我的戰略和運營更新到此結束。

I'll now turn the call over to Joe for the financial update.

我現在將把電話轉給喬，了解最新的財務情況。

Thank you, Vince, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to Slide 7. As Vince mentioned, second quarter earnings from ongoing operations were $0.29 per share compared to $0.30 per share in Q2 2022. The Primary drivers of $0.01 per share decline from last year were lower sales volumes in both Kentucky and Pennsylvania driven by mild weather and as expected in our plan higher interest expense due to increased borrowings at higher interest rates to fund our growth. Those factors were partially offset by lower O&M expense, driven by our continued focus on operating efficiency and improved earnings at the Rhode Island segment from 2 additional months of results in Q2 2023 compared to the prior year.

謝謝你，文斯，大家早上好。讓我們轉向幻燈片7。正如Vince 提到的，第二季度持續運營收益為每股0.29 美元，而2022 年第二季度為每股0.30 美元。每股較去年下降0.01 美元的主要原因是肯塔基州和賓夕法尼亞州銷量下降。由於溫和的天氣以及我們計劃中的預期，由於以更高的利率增加借款以資助我們的增長，因此利息支出增加。這些因素被運營和維護費用的下降所部分抵消，這是由於我們持續關注運營效率，以及羅德島部門的收益提高，2023 年第二季度的業績比上一年多了 2 個月。

Overall, our teams performed well for the quarter and results were slightly ahead of expectations, apart from the mild weather, which impacted results by $0.03 per share compared to our forecast. Degree days were lower by more than 20% in our Kentucky service territory and by over 35% in Pennsylvania. This resulted in lower actual electricity sales volumes of 4% in Kentucky and 8% in Pennsylvania compared to normal.

總體而言，我們的團隊在本季度表現良好，結果略高於預期，但溫和的天氣影響結果與我們的預測相比每股 0.03 美元。我們的肯塔基州服務區域的學位日減少了 20% 以上，賓夕法尼亞州的學位日減少了 35% 以上。這導致肯塔基州和賓夕法尼亞州的實際售電量與正常情況相比分別下降了 4% 和 8%。

Turning to the ongoing segment drivers for the quarter on Slide 8. Our Pennsylvania Regulated segment results decreased by $0.01 year-over-year. Results were primarily driven by lower sales volumes and higher interest expense partially offset by higher transmission revenue and higher distribution rider recovery. Our Kentucky segment results decreased by $0.03 per share year-over-year. Results were impacted primarily by the lower sales volumes and higher interest expense, partially offset by lower O&M expense. Our Rhode Island segment results increased by $0.02 per share year-over-year, reflecting the additional 2 months of earnings this quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8 中本季度持續的細分市場驅動因素。我們的賓夕法尼亞州監管細分市場業績同比下降了 0.01 美元。業績主要是由於銷量下降和利息支出增加而部分被更高的傳輸收入和更高的分銷乘客恢復所抵消。我們的肯塔基州分部業績每股同比下降 0.03 美元。業績主要受到銷量下降和利息費用增加的影響，但運營和維護費用下降部分抵消了影響。我們的羅德島分部業績每股同比增長 0.02 美元，反映了本季度額外 2 個月的收益。

Finally, results at Corporate and Other increased $0.01 per share compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower O&M expense and other factors that were not individually significant partially offset by higher interest expense.

最後，企業及其他部門的業績與上一年相比每股增加了0.01 美元，這主要是由於運營和維護費用的減少以及其他因素，這些因素並未單獨顯著地被較高的利息費用部分抵消。

Moving to Slide 9. Our Q2 performance puts PPL's GAAP earnings at $0.54 per share year-to-date through June 30. Adjusting for special items recorded through the second quarter, earnings from ongoing operations totaled $0.77 per share for the first half of 2023. Mild weather has unfavorably impacted our year-to-date results by a total of about $0.08 per share compared to our planned due to lower sales volumes. In addition, we have experienced higher storm-related costs of about $0.01 per share compared to our planned so far this year due to the significant storm activity. Importantly, we've been able to more than offset these increased storm costs and we are tracking favorably to plan on O&M through the second quarter, and we remain confident in achieving our 2023 earnings forecast as we expect to offset the unfavorable weather and storm impacts due to the projected outperformance in several areas.

轉向幻燈片9。根據我們第二季度的業績，截至6 月30 日，PPL 的GAAP 收益為每股0.54 美元。對第二季度記錄的特殊項目進行調整後，2023 年上半年持續運營業務的收益總計為每股0.77 美元。由於銷量下降，溫和的天氣對我們今年迄今的業績產生了不利影響，與我們的計劃相比，每股收益總計約 0.08 美元。此外，由於風暴活動頻繁，與今年迄今為止的計劃相比，我們的風暴相關成本增加了約 0.01 美元/股。重要的是，我們已經能夠抵消這些增加的風暴成本，並且我們正在積極跟踪整個第二季度的運營和維護計劃，並且我們對實現2023 年盈利預測仍然充滿信心，因為我們預計將抵消不利的天氣和風暴影響由於預計在多個領域表現出色。

First, the disc mechanism in Pennsylvania is projected to offset the lower sales volumes and higher O&M experience in that segment. Second, we are tracking favorably on our integration of Rhode Island Energy, which we expect to provide upside compared to our plan. Third, the convertible debt financing that we executed in the first quarter will reduce our annual interest expense relative to our plan. And finally, we continue to optimize our discretionary O&M. This includes contractor and consultant spend, and the timing of filling open positions and other discretionary O&M spend. In total, these identified offsets present a clear path to achieving the midpoint of our 2023 earnings forecast of $1.50 per share. We have an excellent track record of achieving our financial targets, which we expect to continue in 2023.

首先，賓夕法尼亞州的光盤機制預計將抵消該細分市場較低的銷量和較高的運維經驗。其次，我們正在積極跟踪羅德島能源的整合，我們預計與我們的計劃相比，這將帶來好處。第三，我們在第一季度執行的可轉換債務融資將相對於我們的計劃減少我們的年度利息支出。最後，我們繼續優化我們的自主運維。這包括承包商和顧問的支出，以及填補空缺職位的時間和其他可自由支配的運營和維護支出。總的來說，這些確定的抵消額為實現我們 2023 年每股 1.50 美元盈利預測的中點提供了明確的途徑。我們在實現財務目標方面擁有良好的記錄，我們預計將在 2023 年繼續實現這一目標。

Looking ahead and our plans to achieve at least $175 million of O&M efficiencies by 2026, we established a Transformation Management Office or TMO, to ensure we achieve our long-term efficiency objectives. The TMO, which I chair, with support from our Chief Operating Officer and our Chief Information Officer, and with the engagement from our employees across the entire company is responsible for tracking our progress on savings initiatives as well as identifying and verifying additional areas of possible savings. To date, we have identified over 100 initiatives with savings potential significantly above our $175 million target. This structure and rigorous process gives us even more confidence that we will achieve the targeted savings assumed in our long-term forecast and it will help us deliver a more affordable clean energy transition for our customers. That concludes my prepared remarks.

展望未來，我們計劃到 2026 年實現至少 1.75 億美元的運維效率，我們建立了轉型管理辦公室 (TMO)，以確保我們實現長期效率目標。我擔任 TMO 主席，在首席運營官和首席信息官的支持下，並在整個公司員工的參與下，負責跟踪我們在節約計劃方面的進展，並確定和驗證其他可能的領域節省。迄今為止，我們已經確定了 100 多項舉措，其節省潛力遠高於我們 1.75 億美元的目標。這種結構和嚴格的流程使我們更有信心，我們將實現長期預測中假設的目標節約，並將幫助我們為客戶提供更實惠的清潔能源轉型。我準備好的發言就到此結束。

I'll turn the call back over to Vince.

我會把電話轉回給文斯。

Thank you, Joe. In closing, we remain confident in achieving our goals for 2023. While mild weather and storms have created some headwinds, we have plans in place to overcome those challenges and deliver on our commitments to share owners. We're also on target to complete more than $2.5 billion in infrastructure improvements to provide safe, reliable and affordable energy for our customers. Our integration of Rhode Island Energy continues to go smoothly. We continue to progress our regulatory filings in both Kentucky and Rhode Island. And last but not least, we're solidly on track to deliver our targeted O&M savings as we execute our Utility of the Future playbook, incorporate more technology and automation and centralized various functions across PPL to deliver better value for customers and share owners alike.

謝謝你，喬。最後，我們對實現 2023 年的目標仍然充滿信心。雖然溫和的天氣和風暴帶來了一些阻力，但我們已製定計劃來克服這些挑戰並兌現我們對股東的承諾。我們的目標還包括完成超過 25 億美元的基礎設施改進工作，為我們的客戶提供安全、可靠和負擔得起的能源。我們對羅德島能源公司的整合繼續順利進行。我們繼續推進肯塔基州和羅德島州的監管備案工作。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們正在穩步實現我們的目標運營和維護成本節省，因為我們執行未來的實用手冊，整合更多技術和自動化，並在PPL 中集中各種功能，為客戶和股東等提供更好的價值。

With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.

那麼，操作員，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Pretty straightforward quarter here. I had 2 housekeeping questions. First, can you quantify what's the AMI ask in Rhode Island? How much investment that is?

這裡非常簡單。我有 2 個家政問題。首先，您能量化 AMI 在羅德島州提出的要求嗎？那投資是多少？

We're in the $200 million range Durgesh.

我們的價格是 2 億美元，Durgesh。

Got it. And over (inaudible).

知道了。結束了（聽不清）。

$250 million somewhere around there. Sorry, say that again?

大約有2.5億美元。抱歉，再說一遍？

Sorry. Over what time frame is that $200 million to $250 million?

對不起。 2 億至 2.5 億美元需要多長時間？

Well, we need to get that approved, right? So we just went through the hearings late last month. We expect to have a decision by the commission up there in the fall of this year. And then that will kind of dictate the time frame over which we deploy that capital.

好吧，我們需要獲得批准，對嗎？所以我們上個月末剛剛進行了聽證會。我們預計該委員會將在今年秋季做出決定。然後，這將決定我們部署該資本的時間框架。

Would that be incremental to your current CapEx plan Vince? Or do you have some...

這會增加您當前的資本支出計劃 Vince 嗎？或者你有一些...

No, that's in the current plan.

不，這是在當前的計劃中。

Got it. Okay. And then just in terms of the offsetting the year-date headwinds and weather and storm, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you mentioned like integration savings. Can you elaborate on that? How brings that pie obviously, it sounds like a lot of opportunities in excess of $175 million. But maybe just like what's the upside on the integration and Rhode Island and what might be the other opportunities?

知道了。好的。然後，就抵消年初的逆風、天氣和風暴而言，我想您在準備好的發言中提到過，您提到了整合節省。你能詳細說明一下嗎？顯然，這塊蛋糕是如何帶來的，聽起來有很多超過 1.75 億美元的機會。但也許就像整合和羅德島州的好處是什麼以及其他機會是什麼一樣？

Yes. So the integration in Rhode Island Durgesh is going very well. Really, what we're -- have been able to do is exit TSAs quicker than we had expected and at a lower cost which is driving a lot of the outperformance we're seeing there. We're also mindful of the pace at which we're hiring some of the open positions we have there. So we're fully staffing up that operations and looking to take over completely from grid. And so those are the areas that are driving the Rhode Island integration. We would expect that to be about $0.01 to $0.02 for the year.

是的。所以羅德島Durgesh的整合進展非常順利。事實上，我們能夠做的就是以比我們預期更快的速度和更低的成本退出 TSA，這推動了我們在那裡看到的大量出色表現。我們還注意到我們在那裡招聘一些空缺職位的速度。因此，我們正在為該運營部門配備充足的人員，並希望完全從電網接管。這些都是推動羅德島一體化的領域。我們預計今年約為 0.01 至 0.02 美元。

As far as the progress on the $175 million and the establishment of the TMO, that's going extremely well. As I noted, we have over 100 initiatives totaling more than $175 million. Really, it's driven by significant employee engagement as we're developing tends to implement and achieve the $175 million, the TMO also provides a forum for employees to share their ideas, areas that we could save on O&M and be more efficient across the company. So I don't want to give a dollar amount on that yet at this point as to where we are. We -- part of the process of that brings a lot of rigor to the savings, we got to bet them all to complete business cases where needed. What I can tell you is that we are confident in achieving the $175 million and potentially more than that and the development of the TMO really is even enhanced that confidence as we're working through this.

就 1.75 億美元的進展以及 TMO 的建立而言，進展非常順利。正如我所指出的，我們有 100 多項舉措，總金額超過 1.75 億美元。事實上，它是由大量員工參與推動的，因為我們正在開發旨在實施和實現1.75 億美元的目標，TMO 還為員工提供了一個論壇，讓他們分享他們的想法、我們可以節省運營和維護費用並提高整個公司效率的領域。因此，目前我還不想透露我們目前的情況。我們——這個過程的一部分，帶來了很多嚴格的節省，我們必須賭上所有的錢來完成需要的業務案例。我可以告訴您的是，我們有信心實現 1.75 億美元，甚至可能更多，而且在我們努力解決這一問題的過程中，TMO 的發展確實增強了這種信心。

The next question comes from Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的保羅·津巴多。

Just to follow up on that last question of Durgesh quickly. Is the TMO and those savings more about derisking and extending the outlook? Or is that something that could be incremental in the planning period?

只是為了快速跟進杜爾吉什的最後一個問題。 TMO 和這些節省更多的是為了降低風險和擴展前景嗎？或者這是否可以在規劃期間逐步增加？

Yes. So we'll have to go through all of those items. I mean, certainly derisk and give us confidence in the $175 million through the planning period, whether those items that are in excess of the $175 million we'll have to see whether they come into this period for execution, whether they are longer-dated items. And look, there's headwinds that we have to offset as well. We still see inflation and interest rates. So we have a bank of ideas and opportunities to execute on should we see those headwinds persist or increase, and then it just gives us confidence in the near term to achieve the $175 million and the 6% to 8% earnings growth, and it gives us confidence in the longer term to continue to execute on the strategy.

是的。所以我們必須檢查所有這些項目。我的意思是，當然要消除風險，讓我們對整個規劃期間的1.75 億美元充滿信心，無論是那些超過1.75 億美元的項目，我們都必須看看它們是否會進入這個時期執行，它們是否是較長期的項目。看，我們也必須克服一些逆風。我們仍然看到通貨膨脹和利率。因此，如果我們看到這些逆風持續存在或加劇，我們有大量的想法和機會可以執行，然後它只會讓我們有信心在短期內實現1.75 億美元和6% 至8% 的盈利增長，並且它給了我們信心。我們對長期繼續執行該戰略充滿信心。

Yes. I would reiterate that, Paul. I think it gives us both, right? Certainly, shores up the confidence in the $175 million, but likely gives us upside potential looking beyond that.

是的。我要重申這一點，保羅。我認為這給了我們雙方，對吧？當然，這增強了人們對 1.75 億美元的信心，但也可能給我們帶來除此之外的上行潛力。

Okay. Great. Very clear. And then switching topics. I noticed the weather-normalized sales volumes were decently down in the quarter and now trailing 12 months, both Pennsylvania, Kentucky. Just could you give any color on what you're seeing on the ground and just expectations for the second half of the year?

好的。偉大的。非常清楚。然後就轉換話題了。我注意到，賓夕法尼亞州和肯塔基州的天氣正常化銷量在本季度大幅下降，並且已經連續 12 個月下降。您能透露一下您所看到的情況以及對下半年的期望嗎？

Yes, sure. So well, from a second half of the year, we would expect we have in our forecast normal weather. From our longer-term forecast, we continue 50 basis points of sale of the growth in our plans in total and we continue to be -- believe that, that's an achievable growth forecast. Some of the near-term impact that we're seeing, particularly on the residential side has been due to energy conservation with the rising commodity prices. I would expect that to be a shorter-term anomaly given that we've seen a significant decline in commodity prices already this year and we would expect longer term to see growth in residential usage as electric vehicles and electrification becomes more prevalent.

是的，當然。那麼，從今年下半年開始，我們預計天氣會正常。從我們的長期預測來看，我們的計劃總體銷售增長將繼續增長 50 個基點，並且我們仍然相信，這是一個可以實現的增長預測。我們看到的一些近期影響，特別是在住宅方面，是由於大宗商品價格上漲而導致的能源節約。鑑於今年我們已經看到大宗商品價格大幅下跌，並且隨著電動汽車和電氣化變得更加普遍，我們預計長期住宅使用量將出現增長，我預計這將是一種短期異常現象。

Lower industrial sales in Kentucky have not really impacted our margins. Those customers more are demand-driven than usage. As we think about longer term, there's a number of factors that give us confidence in our assumptions. We continue to see positive economic factors in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, including continued flow unemployment rates and strong GDP growth. As we've discussed in numerous times in Kentucky, we're coming off of back-to-back record years of economic development of over $10 billion of ounce investments in each of '21 and '22. That includes the Ford EV battery plant initiative, which we've talked a lot about. That's broken ground and well under construction.

肯塔基州工業銷售額的下降並沒有真正影響我們的利潤率。這些客戶更多的是需求驅動而不是使用情況。當我們考慮更長期的問題時，有很多因素讓我們對自己的假設充滿信心。我們繼續看到賓夕法尼亞州和肯塔基州的積極經濟因素，包括持續的失業率和強勁的 GDP 增長。正如我們在肯塔基州多次討論的那樣，我們正在擺脫經濟發展的連續創紀錄年份，在 21 年和 22 年每年投資超過 100 億美元盎司。這包括福特電動汽車電池廠計劃，我們已經對此進行了很多討論。那已經破土動工，正在建設中。

The state is targeting another $8 billion of investment for 2023. So when we look at the 10 years prior to this period from 2010 to 2020, there was an average of about $4 billion per year in economic development. So to see $10 billion in each of '21 and '22 and projecting $8 billion this year highlights the Kentucky is a great place to do business and continued economic development there in support of our growth assumptions. But we continue to see strong industrial growth in manufacturing and agricultural sectors as well.

該州的目標是到 2023 年再投資 80 億美元。因此，當我們回顧這一時期之前的 10 年（即 2010 年至 2020 年）時，平均每年的經濟發展約為 40 億美元。因此，“21 世紀”和“22 年”每年都達到 100 億美元，並且預計今年將達到 80 億美元，這突顯肯塔基州是一個經商的好地方，那裡的經濟持續發展支持我們的增長假設。但我們仍然看到製造業和農業部門的工業增長強勁。

Yes. We're not concerned with volumes at all other than the impact on weather. I would say our volume story is really weather-driven.

是的。除了對天氣的影響之外，我們根本不關心數量。我想說我們的故事實際上是由天氣驅動的。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛·阿卡羅。

Let's see. I think just one here. I was curious, we're starting to see some easing of supply chain pressures in the solar industry, commodity costs coming down, module prices declining somewhat in PPA prices easing. I was just wondering if you think that could impact at all the outlook for your Kentucky, just the generation mix maybe longer term, or other opportunities to see lower PPA prices or lower costs in the current CPCN filing or if you're thinking and analysis has evolved at all for the longer-term generation mix there?

讓我們來看看。我想這裡只有一個。我很好奇，我們開始看到太陽能行業供應鏈壓力有所緩解，商品成本下降，組件價格在購電協議價格放緩的情況下有所下降。我只是想知道您是否認為這可能會影響肯塔基州的所有前景，只是長期的發電組合，或者在當前CPCN 備案中看到更低的PPA 價格或更低的成本的其他機會，或者您是否正在思考和分析已經為那裡的長期世代組合而進化了嗎？

Yes. Look, I think the bigger issue in getting our solar deployed in Kentucky is siting and permitting days as opposed to necessarily the supply chain issues, although you're right, they have been an issue across the industry, and that is starting to abate.

是的。看，我認為在肯塔基州部署太陽能的更大問題是選址和許可天數，而不是供應鏈問題，儘管你是對的，但它們一直是整個行業的一個問題，而且這個問題正在開始減弱。

In our case, though, I think it is more siting and permitting, which I think the company-owned solutions make that much easier because we can navigate that easier than third-party developers have been able to so far. So as you know, our CPCN has a combination of company-owned and PPAs in it. We'll continue to look at the executability of those PPAs and that if we continue to see issues there that could actually push us more to recommending more company-owned where we have a higher degree of confidence that we can get them built.

但就我們而言，我認為更多的是選址和許可，我認為公司擁有的解決方案使這一點變得更加容易，因為我們可以比第三方開發人員迄今為止更容易地進行導航。如您所知，我們的 CPCN 結合了公司自有和 PPA。我們將繼續關注這些購電協議的可執行性，如果我們繼續發現其中的問題，實際上可能會促使我們更多地推薦更多公司擁有的產品，因為我們對建造它們有更高的信心。

Next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

下一個問題來自古根海姆合夥人公司的 Shar Pourreza。

So Vince, I just want to -- starting with the Kentucky CPCN filing. I mean, obviously, thanks for the incremental color and the prepared on the time line. As we look ahead to the prospects for settlement. You mentioned August 15 formal conference. I guess what could that look like? Is it partial, maybe the gas but not the renewables? Just any additional color on how to think about that would be great.

Vince，我只想從肯塔基州 CPCN 的文件開始。我的意思是，顯然，感謝增量顏色和時間線上的準備。當我們展望和解前景時。你提到8月15日正式會議。我猜那會是什麼樣子？是部分的嗎？也許是天然氣，但不是可再生能源？只要有任何關於如何思考這一點的額外顏色就太好了。

Well, look, I think you can appreciate, I don't necessarily want to get into negotiating positions at this point on the call. But what I'll say just around the process itself is we're actively engaged right now with various interveners. As you mentioned, the settlement conference is scheduled for the 15 if that goes well, and we can get settlement on at least significant issues in the case with enough parties. Then we may be able to present a stipulation to the PSC for their consideration.

好吧，聽著，我想你可以理解，我不一定想在電話會議的此時進入談判立場。但我要說的是，圍繞這一過程本身，我們現在正在積極與各種干預者接觸。正如你提到的，如果順利的話，和解會議定於15日舉行，我們至少可以在足夠多的當事人參與的情況下就案件中的重大問題達成和解。然後我們也許可以向 PSC 提出一項規定供他們考慮。

As you know, the hearings are scheduled to begin on the 22 of August, that could become a forum for the PSC to take up the settlement agreement, if we're able to reach one. But at this point, I'd say, Shar, it's too early to tell if we'll be able to reach a settlement. But if we don't, of course, we're ready to defend the plan as filed, as we've been indicating all along. So a little early at this point to tell if we can get there. But certainly, we're open to those discussions.

如您所知，聽證會定於 8 月 22 日開始，如果我們能夠達成和解協議，聽證會可能成為 PSC 討論和解協議的論壇。但在這一點上，我想說，莎爾，現在判斷我們是否能夠達成和解還為時過早。但如果我們不這樣做，當然，我們準備捍衛所提交的計劃，正如我們一直以來所表明的那樣。所以現在判斷我們是否能到達那裡還為時過早。但當然，我們對這些討論持開放態度。

So let me just drill down a little bit on the defending side. Any off chance there are issues with the CPCN, right? Do you -- I guess, Vince, do you have avenues, either through pollution control or T&D work to offset that space in your CapEx plan, I guess, in a scenario where there's issues. And then do me a favor, could you just maybe frame what -- how much of that CapEx you could see being backfilled, right, in that worst-case scenario?

讓我稍微深入了解一下防守方。 CPCN 很有可能出現問題，對嗎？我猜，文斯，在出現問題的情況下，你是否有辦法通過污染控製或 T&D 工作來抵消你的資本支出計劃中的空間。然後幫我一個忙，您能否框架一下，在最壞的情況下，您可以看到多少資本支出得到回填？

Well, look, I think the key takeaway is I'm not sure I would expect whether we have a settlement or fully litigating our case that, that would have a material impact on either our capital plan or our EPS targets given the different buckets of CapEx, whether it's building replacement generation or environmental spend or other types of CapEx that we might deploy in Kentucky and elsewhere across the fleet.

好吧，看，我認為關鍵的一點是，我不確定我們是否會達成和解或充分訴訟我們的案件，這將對我們的資本計劃或每股收益目標產生重大影響，因為考慮到不同的類別資本支出，無論是建設替代發電還是環境支出，還是我們可能在肯塔基州和艦隊其他地方部署的其他類型的資本支出。

If you look at the testimony and based on everything that's been filed to date, I don't think the outcome Shar is going to be an all or nothing on the coal plant retirements. But when you look at the -- Good Neighbor Plan, which was consistent with what we were assuming in the CPCN, that would require SCRs on Genco-II, Mill Creek 1, Mill Creek 2, also a new cooling tower at Mill Creek 1. When you look at the MATS regs and the ELG regulations, especially the ELG regs, that could result in significant incremental investments if we were required to do so. So even if it was a full rejection of the retirements, which again, I don't think that will be the outcome. As we've talked in the past, that's in the $500 million to $1.5 billion of environmental CapEx. That doesn't even include the amount of maintenance capital we have to spend on those plants going forward. So again, I'm not sure the outcome necessarily impacts the CapEx and EPS trajectory. It might just be different buckets where we're spending that capital.

如果你看一下證詞並根據迄今為止提交的所有內容，我認為夏爾的結果不會是燃煤電廠退役的全部或全部。但是，當您查看“睦鄰計劃”時，該計劃與我們在 CPCN 中的假設一致，這需要在 Genco-II、Mill Creek 1、Mill Creek 2 以及 Mill Creek 1 的新冷卻塔上安裝 SCR . 當您查看MATS 法規和ELG 法規，尤其是ELG 法規時，如果我們被要求這樣做，可能會導致大量增量投資。因此，即使完全拒絕退休，我也不認為這會是結果。正如我們過去談到的，這相當於 5 億至 15 億美元的環境資本支出。這甚至不包括我們未來必須花在這些工廠上的維護資金。再說一遍，我不確定結果是否一定會影響資本支出和每股收益軌跡。我們可能只是將資金花在不同的方面。

And then just lastly, that bucket you're going to be spending that capital. This is obviously the worst-case scenario, so no one's are assuming this. But in the case that it does turn out to be negative, that incremental capital doesn't have a timing lag, right? So you can go ahead and recognize it fairly immediately where we wouldn't keep divots in your earnings growth in the near term?

最後，你將花費這筆資金。這顯然是最壞的情況，所以沒有人這麼假設。但如果結果確實是負數，那麼增量資本就沒有時間滯後，對嗎？因此，您可以繼續並立即認識到這一點，因為我們不會在短期內影響您的盈利增長？

Some of that CapEx would have to -- we would have to start spending that right away to continue to operate those plants. And that, to your point, that would be recoverable under the environmental cost recovery which does not require a base rate case for recovery.

其中一些資本支出必須立即開始支出才能繼續運營這些工廠。就您而言，這可以根據環境成本回收來回收，不需要基準費率回收情況。

The next question comes from Gregg Orrill with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的格雷格·奧里爾。

This may be repetitive. I know you said that the testimony from intervenors was kind of in line with expectations. Did you learn anything about their positions that was incremental to the process that -- or the process itself that you're willing to share?

這可能是重複的。我知道你說過乾預者的證詞有點符合預期。您是否了解了有關他們的職位的任何信息，這些信息對於您願意分享的流程或流程本身是增量的？

Not really, Gregg. I would say the testimony was as expected. I think we talked about expected intervener positions when we rolled out the plan that we filed. So we knew the coal association would be against retiring coal. We know the environmental intervenors would be pushing more renewables. Again, our plan we think balances all of those interests. But more importantly, it complies with SB4, it complies with our obligations to serve lease cost, reliable, safe energy. It is increasingly cleaner which we're hearing a lot from our customers and from our 2 major cities in Louisville and Lexington.

不是真的，格雷格。我想說證詞符合預期。我認為，當我們推出我們提交的計劃時，我們討論了預期的干預者立場。所以我們知道煤炭協會會反對煤炭退役。我們知道環境干預者將推動更多的可再生能源。同樣，我們認為我們的計劃平衡了所有這些利益。但更重要的是，它符合 SB4，它符合我們服務租賃成本、可靠、安全能源的義務。我們從客戶以及路易斯維爾和列剋星敦這兩個主要城市那裡聽到了很多這樣的說法，它變得越來越乾淨。

So we were extremely thoughtful and took a lot of actually intervener input from the IRP process into coming up with what we proposed. As I talked about, however, we are willing to engage in settlement discussions with the parties, and we'll see if we can reach something here in the next couple of weeks going into the hearings beginning on the 22. So I would say, as expected and we incorporated most, if not all of that into the original plan that we filed with the commission.

因此，我們考慮得非常周到，並從 IRP 流程中吸收了許多實際干預者的意見，才提出了我們的建議。然而，正如我所說，我們願意與各方進行和解討論，我們將在接下來的幾週內在 22 日開始的聽證會中看看是否能達成一些協議。所以我想說，正如預期的那樣，我們將大部分（如果不是全部）納入我們向委員會提交的原始計劃中。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Anthony Crowdell。

I just wanted to follow up on Shar's question just one, and I'm not sure you can answer it. Do you know if the commission in Kentucky would prefer the parties reach a settlement or given maybe with the closure of plants or whatever, that they're more buyers or they prefer a fully litigated track to have maybe a stronger record?

我只是想跟進 Shar 的一個問題，我不確定你能否回答。你知道肯塔基州的委員會是否希望雙方達成和解，或者考慮到可能關閉工廠或其他什麼，他們是更多的買家，或者他們更喜歡完全訴訟的軌道以獲得更好的記錄？

I don't know that they have a preference one way or the other. Anthony, to be honest with you, they're going to uphold their obligation to ensure whether it's a settlement or our case that it meets the requirements of SB4 and again, our obligation to serve in a lease cost reliable way. So they're going to do their duty regardless of what's in front of them, whether it's a settlement or our case. Not sure if they have a preference on which one is in front. I mean they'll take a settlement as evidence in the case. They don't have to approve the settlement, but they will certainly take it as evidence in the case the authority really lies with them in terms of whether or not to accept that or not.

我不知道他們是否有這樣或那樣的偏好。安東尼，說實話，他們將履行自己的義務，確保無論是和解還是我們的案件，都滿足 SB4 的要求，而且我們有義務以可靠的租賃成本方式提供服務。因此，無論他們面臨什麼，無論是和解還是我們的案件，他們都會履行自己的職責。不確定他們是否偏好哪一個在前面。我的意思是他們會把和解協議作為案件的證據。他們不一定要批准和解，但他們肯定會把它作為證據，在案件中，權威確實在他們是否接受這一點上。

Great. And then just lastly, I believe the company has been successful in reaching settlements in the past in Kentucky. Has -- I'm just -- my memory is getting a little foggy. I believe the commission has approved those settlements and not modify them. Is that accurate?

偉大的。最後，我相信該公司過去在肯塔基州已成功達成和解。我——我只是——我的記憶變得有點模糊了。我相信委員會已經批准了這些和解方案，並且沒有修改它們。準確嗎？

So you're right. Generally, we have been able to reach settlement with the parties to our cases. The commission has modified them slightly in the past, nothing to material. At times, they've accepted them as filed. And other times, they've modified them, I would say, slightly.

所以你是對的。一般來說，我們能夠與案件當事人達成和解。該委員會過去曾對它們進行過輕微修改，但沒有什麼實質意義。有時，他們會接受已提交的文件。我想說，其他時候，他們會稍微修改一下。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Vince Sorgi for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回文斯·索爾吉（Vince Sorgi）發表閉幕詞。

I just want to say thanks for joining us on the call. Feeling good about our progress so far year-to-date, looking forward to the second half of the year. And have a great weekend, everyone, and we'll see you soon at the next conference.

我只想感謝您加入我們的電話會議。我們對今年迄今取得的進展感到滿意，對下半年充滿期待。祝大家週末愉快，我們很快就會在下一次會議上見到你們。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。