賓州電力 (PPL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the PPL Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎來到 PPL 公司第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andy Ludwig, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Andy Ludwig。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the PPL conference call on third quarter 2022 financial results. We provided slides for this presentation on the Investors section of our website.

謝謝你。大家早上好，感謝您參加 PPL 2022 年第三季度財務業績電話會議。我們在我們網站的投資者部分提供了本演示文稿的幻燈片。

We'll begin today's call with updates from Vince Sorgi, PPL President and CEO; and Joe Bergstein, Chief Financial Officer; and conclude with a Q&A session following our prepared remarks. Before we get started, I'll draw your attention to Slide 2 and a brief cautionary statement.

我們將從 PPL 總裁兼首席執行官 Vince Sorgi 的最新消息開始今天的電話會議；首席財務官 Joe Bergstein；並在我們準備好的評論之後以問答環節結束。在我們開始之前，我將提請您注意幻燈片 2 和簡短的警告聲明。

Our presentation today contains forward-looking statements about future operating results or other future events. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the appendix of this presentation and PPL's SEC filings for a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements.

我們今天的演示文稿包含有關未來經營業績或其他未來事件的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。請參閱本演示文稿的附錄和 PPL 提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以討論可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的一些因素。

We will also refer to non-GAAP measures, including earnings from ongoing operations and adjusted gross margins on this call. For reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures. Please refer to the appendix. I'll now turn the call over to Vince.

我們還將參考非 GAAP 指標，包括持續運營的收益和調整後的毛利率。用於與可比的 GAAP 措施進行調節。請參閱附錄。我現在將電話轉給文斯。

Thank you, Andy, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter investor update. Turning to Slide 4. We had another solid quarter of financial results as we execute our Utility of the Future strategy. Today, we announced third quarter reported earnings of $0.24 per share.

謝謝安迪，大家早上好。歡迎來到我們的第三季度投資者更新。轉到幻燈片 4。在執行“未來效用”戰略時，我們又取得了穩健的季度財務業績。今天，我們宣布第三季度每股收益為 0.24 美元。

Adjusting for special items, third quarter earnings from ongoing operations were $0.41 per share compared with $0.36 per share a year ago. Based on our strong financial performance year-to-date, today, we increased the midpoint of our earnings forecast from $1.37 per share to $1.40 per share and narrowed our earnings forecast range to $1.35 to $1.45 per share.

調整特殊項目後，第三季度持續運營收益為每股 0.41 美元，而去年同期為每股 0.36 美元。基於我們年初至今強勁的財務業績，今天，我們將盈利預測的中點從每股 1.37 美元上調至每股 1.40 美元，並將我們的盈利預測範圍縮小至每股 1.35 美元至 1.45 美元。

Our 2022 earnings guidance reflects a partial year estimate of contributions from Rhode Island Energy, which we acquired on May 25. Today, we also reaffirmed our projected compound annual earnings per share and dividend growth rates of 6% to 8% through at least 2025.

我們的 2022 年收益指引反映了對我們於 5 月 25 日收購的 Rhode Island Energy 的部分年度貢獻估計。今天，我們還重申了我們預計至少到 2025 年每股複合年收益和股息增長率為 6% 至 8%。

Our per share growth target is based off the midpoint of our pro forma 2022 forecast range of $1.40 to $1.55 per share or $1.48 per share. The pro forma forecast reflects a full year of earnings contribution from Rhode Island Energy. We remain confident in our ability to achieve our growth projections, even in the current macro environment of rising interest rates, high inflation and high commodity costs.

我們的每股增長目標基於我們 2022 年備考預測範圍的中點，即每股 1.40 美元至 1.55 美元或每股 1.48 美元。備考預測反映了羅德島能源公司全年的盈利貢獻。即使在當前利率上升、高通脹和高商品成本的宏觀環境下，我們仍然對實現增長預測的能力充滿信心。

At the time when affordability is paramount for our customers, our strategy and strong balance sheet provide PPL significant resilience. Namely, our current business plan does not rely on rate cases to achieve our stated growth targets. We expect to recover about 55% of our current 5-year CapEx plan through riders and formula rates, reducing regulatory lag and supporting continued strong credit metrics.

在負擔能力對我們的客戶至關重要的時候，我們的戰略和強大的資產負債表為 PPL 提供了顯著的彈性。也就是說，我們當前的業務計劃不依賴費率案例來實現我們既定的增長目標。我們預計將通過車手和公式利率收回我們當前 5 年資本支出計劃的約 55%，減少監管滯後並支持持續強勁的信用指標。

And our strong balance sheet will support growth without the need for equity issuances over the plan period while providing financial flexibility to effectively manage market volatility. We also continue to execute our business transformation initiatives focused on driving efficiency, affordability and improved reliability for our customers.

我們強大的資產負債表將在計劃期內支持增長而無需發行股票，同時提供財務靈活性以有效管理市場波動。我們還繼續執行我們的業務轉型計劃，重點是為我們的客戶提高效率、負擔能力和可靠性。

As we outlined in our Q2 call, this includes hardening the system, deploying smart grid technology and leveraging data science across our T&D operations, optimizing our generation outage schedules and non-outage maintenance costs and centralizing shared services while deploying common systems and platforms. We remain confident that we will achieve our planned O&M savings of at least $150 million through 2025 with the potential for additional upside beyond 2025.

正如我們在第二季度電話會議中概述的那樣，這包括加強系統、部署智能電網技術並在我們的 T&D 運營中利用數據科學、優化我們的發電停電計劃和非停電維護成本以及在部署通用系統和平台時集中共享服務。我們仍然相信，到 2025 年，我們將實現計劃中的至少 1.5 億美元的 O&M 節省，並有可能在 2025 年之後實現額外的增長。

Bottom line, we believe we are well positioned to weather current economic conditions while driving substantial value for both customers and shareowners. Shifting to a few operational highlights on Slide 5.

最重要的是，我們相信我們有能力應對當前的經濟狀況，同時為客戶和股東帶來可觀的價值。轉到幻燈片 5 上的一些操作要點。

In Kentucky, we continue to evaluate opportunities to advance the transition of our generation fleet, the transition that will offer long-term value for our customers and help deliver the clean energy transition in Kentucky. We continue to expect to retire 1,000 megawatts of coal-fired generation by 2028, with the potential to retire an additional 500 megawatts due to EPA's Good Neighbor rule.

在肯塔基州，我們繼續評估機會以推進我們的發電機組轉型，這一轉型將為我們的客戶提供長期價值並幫助在肯塔基州實現清潔能源轉型。我們繼續預計到 2028 年將淘汰 1,000 兆瓦的燃煤發電，並有可能根據 EPA 的好鄰居規則再淘汰 500 兆瓦。

In connection with these expected retirements, and following the RFP completed earlier this year, we're targeting a mid-December filing with the Kentucky Public Service Commission, which would include requests for Certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity, or CPCN, for any supply-side assets that would be owned by us. We're also updating our load forecast to reflect the recent economic development in our service territories, including Ford's EV battery plant as well as updating demand-side management and energy efficiency programs to fully address the demand side of the equation.

關於這些預期的退休，在今年早些時候完成 RFP 之後，我們的目標是在 12 月中旬向肯塔基州公共服務委員會提交申請，其中包括對任何供應的公共便利和必要性證書 (CPCN) 的請求-我們擁有的資產。我們還更新了我們的負荷預測，以反映我們服務區域最近的經濟發展，包括福特的 EV 電池廠，以及更新需求側管理和能源效率計劃，以充分解決需求側的問題。

As we evaluate our supply options, we're focusing on solutions that are least cost, and will ensure the reliability our customers need and expect. We anticipate these least cost solutions will be a combination of company-owned resources and power purchase agreements and will include solar, energy storage and combined cycle natural gas.

在評估我們的供應選擇時，我們專注於成本最低的解決方案，並將確保我們的客戶需要和期望的可靠性。我們預計這些成本最低的解決方案將結合公司擁有的資源和購電協議，並將包括太陽能、儲能和聯合循環天然氣。

We also expect this generation replacement strategy to significantly improve the carbon intensity of our Kentucky generation fleet. Our mid-December filing will begin a regulatory review process that will conclude with an order from the KPSC.

我們還預計這一代更換策略將顯著提高我們肯塔基發電機隊的碳強度。我們在 12 月中旬提交的文件將開始監管審查程序，最終將以 KPSC 的命令結束。

While there is no statutory timing requirement for the KPSC to review a CPCN filing, we would expect to conclude the regulatory review process by the end of 2023. In other updates, our Rhode Island Energy subsidiary expects to file several plans with the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission by the end of Q4. That will support our customers' evolving energy needs.

雖然 KPSC 沒有法定時間要求來審查 CPCN 備案，但我們預計將在 2023 年底之前完成監管審查流程。在其他更新中，我們的羅德島能源子公司預計將向羅德島公共部門提交多項計劃第四季度末公用事業委員會。這將支持我們客戶不斷變化的能源需求。

We've already filed our annual energy efficiency plan in late September, which is critical to our reliability, customer satisfaction, affordability and sustainability objectives. Within the next couple of months, we'll file the company's annual infrastructure, safety and reliability plans for both electric and gas, which will outline our plans to enhance the reliability of state's energy infrastructure while at the same time, preparing the electric grid for more renewable energy, including offshore wind and distributed energy resources.

我們已經在 9 月下旬提交了年度能效計劃，這對我們的可靠性、客戶滿意度、可負擔性和可持續性目標至關重要。在接下來的幾個月內，我們將提交公司年度電力和天然氣基礎設施、安全和可靠性計劃，其中將概述我們提高州能源基礎設施可靠性的計劃，同時為電網做好準備更多可再生能源，包括海上風能和分佈式能源。

Costs approved through the ISR plan will be recoverable through the ISR rider mechanism, which reduces regulatory lag for these investments between base rate cases. By the end of the year, we also expect to file our advanced metering plans at the Rhode Island PUC, outlining the deployment of advanced meters to our electricity and gas customers in the state.

通過 ISR 計劃批准的成本將通過 ISR 騎手機制收回，這減少了這些投資在基本費率案例之間的監管滯後。到今年年底，我們還希望向羅德島 PUC 提交我們的先進計量計劃，概述為我們在該州的電力和天然氣客戶部署先進儀表。

PPL has experience installing almost 3 million advanced meters and realizing the benefits that those meters can provide. We will leverage this experience in Rhode Island and deliver this value for our Rhode Island customers as well.

PPL 擁有安裝近 300 萬個先進儀表並意識到這些儀表可以提供的好處的經驗。我們將利用在羅德島的這種經驗，並為我們的羅德島客戶提供這種價值。

Our advanced metering plan will be foundational for our grid modernization plan, which we also plan to file by year-end. The GMP is a longer-term strategic initiative we're developing in support of the needs of our customers as we deliver the grid capable of connecting 100% renewable energy by 2033, which is now a law in Rhode Island.

我們的高級計量計劃將成為我們電網現代化計劃的基礎，我們還計劃在年底前提交該計劃。 GMP 是我們正在製定的一項長期戰略計劃，以支持我們客戶的需求，因為我們提供的電網能夠在 2033 年之前連接 100% 的可再生能源，這現已成為羅德島州的一項法律。

Finally, in late October, we announced a strategic partnership with the Elia Group to support the development of transmission solutions for offshore wind in the New England region. Specifically, PPL and Elia signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly develop and propose innovative transmission solutions to integrate offshore wind to the onshore grid.

最後，在 10 月下旬，我們宣布與 Elia Group 建立戰略合作夥伴關係，以支持新英格蘭地區海上風電輸電解決方案的開發。具體來說，PPL 和 Elia 簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，共同開發和提出創新輸電解決方案，將海上風電整合到陸上電網中。

We believe PPL and Elia are uniquely suited to support New England in this regard. Elia has been a clear pioneer in developing offshore transmission grid solutions through its subsidiaries in Belgium and Germany as the company has connected 14 offshore wind farms to the onshore grid.

我們相信 PPL 和 Elia 在這方面特別適合支持新英格蘭。 Elia 已通過其在比利時和德國的子公司將 14 個海上風電場連接到陸上電網，成為開發海上輸電網解決方案的明顯先驅。

Meanwhile, PPL has established a proven track record of successfully citing, building and operating large transmission projects here in the U.S. Both of our companies are clear leaders in grid innovation and reliability. And we both share a strong focus on advancing the clean energy future, while keeping energy safe, reliable and affordable.

與此同時，PPL 在美國成功引用、建設和運營大型輸電項目方面建立了良好的記錄。我們兩家公司都是電網創新和可靠性方面的明顯領導者。我們都非常重視推進清潔能源的未來，同時保持能源安全、可靠和負擔得起。

Together, we recently responded to a request for information issued by 5 New England states that are seeking input on potential transmission system changes and upgrades to integrate future offshore wind generation with current estimates of as much as 30 gigawatts by 2050.

我們最近一起回應了新英格蘭 5 個州發出的信息請求，這些州正在尋求有關潛在輸電系統變更和升級的信息，以整合未來的海上風力發電，目前估計到 2050 年將達到 30 吉瓦。

Moving forward, we anticipate forming a joint venture with Elia to pursue any potential offshore transmission opportunities that may arise after the RFI. We expect an RFP for proposed transmission projects in New England could be issued as early as third quarter 2023.

展望未來，我們預計將與 Elia 組建一家合資企業，以尋求 RFI 之後可能出現的任何潛在海上傳輸機會。我們預計新英格蘭擬議輸電項目的 RFP 最早可在 2023 年第三季度發布。

Many offshore transmission projects stemming from this effort are expected to drive investments beyond 2026 and would be expected to be FERC jurisdictional projects under FERC formula rates. And while we are in the early stages of this process, we're excited to be participating in the process and are optimistic that PPL and Elia can develop innovative and cost-effective offshore transmission solutions for New England.

許多由此產生的海上輸電項目預計將推動 2026 年以後的投資，並有望成為 FERC 公式費率下的 FERC 管轄項目。雖然我們處於這個過程的早期階段，但我們很高興能夠參與這個過程，並對 PPL 和 Elia 能夠為新英格蘭開發創新且具有成本效益的海上輸電解決方案感到樂觀。

Any investments made through this partnership would be incremental to the $27 billion of capital investment opportunities through 2030 that we highlighted at our Investor Day. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe for the financial update. Joe?

通過這種夥伴關係進行的任何投資都將增加我們在投資者日強調的到 2030 年 270 億美元的資本投資機會。有了這個，我現在將電話轉給喬進行財務更新。喬？

Thank you, Vince, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to Slide 7. We reported 2022 third quarter GAAP earnings of $0.24 per share. Special items in the third quarter were $0.17 per share, primarily due to integration expenses associated with the acquisition of Rhode Island Energy, commitments made during the acquisition process, and impacts associated with the sale of Safari, which we announced in late September and closed on earlier this week.

謝謝你，文斯，大家早上好。讓我們轉到幻燈片 7。我們報告 2022 年第三季度 GAAP 每股收益為 0.24 美元。第三季度的特殊項目為每股 0.17 美元，主要是由於與收購 Rhode Island Energy 相關的整合費用、收購過程中做出的承諾以及與我們於 9 月下旬宣布並於本週早些時候。

Adjusting for these special items, third quarter earnings from ongoing operations were $0.41 per share, an improvement of $0.05 per share compared to last year. Another strong quarter brings our year-to-date GAAP earnings to $0.77 per share.

調整這些特殊項目後，第三季度持續運營收益為每股 0.41 美元，與去年同期相比每股增加 0.05 美元。另一個強勁的季度使我們年初至今的 GAAP 收益達到每股 0.77 美元。

Adjusting for year-to-date special items of $0.36 per share, our ongoing earnings results are $1.13 per share through 9 months of 2022 compared to $0.83 in 2021. Turning to the ongoing segment drivers on Slide 8.

調整年初至今每股 0.36 美元的特殊項目後，我們到 2022 年 9 個月的持續收益結果為每股 1.13 美元，而 2021 年為 0.83 美元。轉向幻燈片 8 上的持續細分驅動因素。

Our Pennsylvania Regulated segment results improved by $0.01 per share year-over-year, excluding share accretion. The increased earnings in Pennsylvania were driven by lower O&M expenses in the period, primarily from lower storm and support group costs.

我們的賓夕法尼亞監管部門業績同比增長 0.01 美元，不包括股票增值。賓夕法尼亞州收入的增加是由於該期間運營和維護費用較低，主要是風暴和支持小組成本較低。

Our Kentucky segment decreased by $0.01 per share year-over-year, excluding share accretion. The decrease was due to various factors that were not individually significant. The addition of our Rhode Island segment increased earnings by $0.04 per share for the quarter.

我們的肯塔基分部同比下降 0.01 美元，不包括股票增值。減少是由於各種因素，但個別因素並不顯著。羅德島分部的加入使本季度每股收益增加了 0.04 美元。

Results at Corporate and Other were $0.01 lower compared to the prior year due to factors that were not individually significant. Finally, our third quarter results were $0.02 higher due to share accretion resulting from the $1 billion of stock buybacks completed in 2021.

由於個別因素並不重要，公司和其他部門的業績比上一年低 0.01 美元。最後，由於 2021 年完成的 10 億美元股票回購導致股價上漲，我們第三季度的業績增長了 0.02 美元。

Turning to Slide 9. Our results to date support the $0.03 increase in the midpoint of our ongoing earnings forecast to $1.40 per share. As shown on the left of the slide, the primary drivers of the increase in our forecast are at our Kentucky and Rhode Island segments with higher margins due to favorable weather compared to our forecast in Kentucky as well as lower O&M expenses in both jurisdictions as we execute on our business transformation.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們迄今為止的結果支持將我們持續盈利預測的中點增加 0.03 美元至每股 1.40 美元。如幻燈片左側所示，我們預測增長的主要驅動因素是我們的肯塔基州和羅德島州部分，由於天氣有利，與我們在肯塔基州的預測相比，利潤率更高，而且兩個司法管轄區的運營和維護費用較低，因為我們執行我們的業務轉型。

Turning to the right part of the slide. We've also narrowed our forecast increasing the bottom end of the range to $1.35 per share from $1.30 per share given our strong year-to-date performance and only a few months remaining in the year.

轉向幻燈片的右側部分。鑑於我們年初至今的強勁表現以及今年僅剩幾個月，我們還縮小了預測範圍的下限，從每股 1.30 美元上調至每股 1.35 美元。

In closing, our financial results to date reflect the improved low-risk profile of the new PPL as we continue to deliver for both customers and shareowners. Our strategic actions have well positioned PPL to achieve those results with an excellent financial foundation and a strong balance sheet to navigate the current macroeconomic environment.

最後，我們迄今為止的財務業績反映了新 PPL 的低風險狀況有所改善，因為我們繼續為客戶和股東提供服務。我們的戰略行動使 PPL 能夠以出色的財務基礎和強大的資產負債表來應對當前的宏觀經濟環境，從而取得這些成果。

And we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our growth projections of 6% to 8% in earnings and dividends through 2025. That concludes my prepared remarks. I'll turn the call back over to Vince.

我們仍然相信我們有能力實現到 2025 年 6% 至 8% 的收益和股息增長預測。我準備好的發言到此結束。我會把電話轉回文斯。

Thank you, Joe. In closing, I'm proud of how we continue to execute the strategy we outlined at our Investor Day in June. Across PPL, we are laser-focused on creating technology-enabled utilities of the future, on delivering the clean energy transition reliably and affordably and on driving long-term value for our customers and our shareowners.

謝謝你，喬。最後，我為我們如何繼續執行我們在 6 月的投資者日上概述的戰略感到自豪。在 PPL 中，我們專注於創建未來的技術支持公用事業，可靠且經濟地提供清潔能源轉型，並為我們的客戶和股東創造長期價值。

Our strategy delivers top-tier earnings and dividend growth of 6% to 8% annually. And as we said, we remain confident in our ability to deliver this growth. Our growth is supported by $27 billion in investment opportunities through 2030 and one of the strongest balance sheets in our sector.

我們的戰略每年帶來 6% 至 8% 的頂級收益和股息增長。正如我們所說，我們對實現這種增長的能力充滿信心。到 2030 年，我們的增長得到 270 億美元的投資機會和我們行業中最強大的資產負債表之一的支持。

It's anchored in operational efficiencies in the near term with stronger rate base growth driving earnings growth later in the decade. And we firmly believe it's the right strategy at the right time to effectively manage the risks associated with the current macroeconomic environment while continuing to deliver real value for our customers and shareowners.

它立足於近期的運營效率，強勁的利率基礎增長將在十年後推動收益增長。我們堅信，在正確的時間採取正確的戰略，可以有效管理與當前宏觀經濟環境相關的風險，同時繼續為我們的客戶和股東創造真正的價值。

Across our company, we continue to execute our plans for the new PPL and we're as excited as we've ever been about our future. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.

在我們公司，我們繼續執行新 PPL 的計劃，我們對我們的未來一如既往地興奮。有了這個，接線員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Shar Pourreza 和 Guggenheim Partners。

So just a couple of quick ones here. You mentioned again today that a CCGT and some renewables would be leading candidates for new energy and capacity. Has the IRA kind of changed the calculus on your potential ownership of the latter, so being renewables? And I guess, how should we think about scale there?

所以這裡只有幾個快速的。您今天再次提到，CCGT 和一些可再生能源將成為新能源和產能的主要候選者。 IRA 是否改變了您對後者潛在所有權的計算，因此是可再生能源？我想，我們應該如何考慮那裡的規模？

Yes, it clearly has. So the IRA has clearly improved the competitiveness of company-owned renewables versus third-party PPA pricing, Shar, right? The PTC optionality there plus the additional tax attribute enhancements for certain types of labor apprenticeship programs and then in our case, we're using coal sites, et cetera.

是的，它顯然有。所以 IRA 明顯提高了公司擁有的可再生能源相對於第三方 PPA 定價的競爭力，Shar，對嗎？那裡的 PTC 可選性加上某些類型的勞工學徒計劃的額外稅收屬性增強，然後在我們的案例中，我們正在使用煤礦等。

So clearly, the economics are moving in the right direction from where we were before to now, post IRA. I don't want to get too far out in front of the filing in terms of how much of the resources we see. But clearly, I think there's an opportunity for solar storage, combined cycle on the solar and storage side.

很明顯，經濟正朝著正確的方向發展，從我們之前到現在，愛爾蘭共和軍之後。就我們看到的資源數量而言，我不想在提交文件前走得太遠。但很明顯，我認為太陽能存儲、太陽能和存儲方面的聯合循環有機會。

I think we'll see a combination of PPAs and company-owned there. And then on the combined cycle, we would expect that to be company-owned.

我認為我們會在那裡看到 PPA 和公司所有的組合。然後在聯合循環中，我們希望它是公司所有的。

Got it. Perfect. And then just on the Rhode Island filings, Vince, are these sort of the gating mechanisms to maybe potentially narrow that CapEx range you have there? I mean, when you rolled out your plan, the out years had a roughly $200 million range between the bottom and top end. Now that you've been on the system, is this something we could see narrowed or even raised next year?

知道了。完美的。然後就在羅德島的文件中，文斯，這些門控機制是否有可能縮小你在那裡的資本支出範圍？我的意思是，當你推出你的計劃時，未來幾年的底部和頂部之間大約有 2 億美元的範圍。既然你已經在系統上了，明年我們是否可以看到縮小甚至提高這個範圍？

Yes, I think that's a good point. I would say timing why, Shar, you're probably right. I think we would see that maybe next year with our ability to narrow those ranges. We really want to get through this first regulatory process in the state. So these filings are our first filings in the state, as you know. And so we would expect to get through those kind of mid next year, and that will set us up for a much clearer view of '23, '24.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的觀點。我會說為什麼，Shar，你可能是對的。我認為我們可能會在明年看到縮小這些範圍的能力。我們真的很想通過該州的第一個監管程序。如您所知，這些文件是我們在該州的第一份文件。因此，我們預計會在明年年中度過這種情況，這將使我們對 23 年、24 年有更清晰的認識。

The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Just firstly, just I think -- can you size the CapEx dollars for us? Or did I hear you say you don't want to kind of get ahead of the filing in terms of what this might mean. I'm thinking of just the Kentucky generation bucket separately and then Rhode Island separately.

首先，我想——你能為我們確定資本支出的規模嗎？或者我是否聽到您說您不想提前了解這可能意味著什麼。我正在分別考慮肯塔基一代，然後分別考慮羅德島。

Yes. So for Kentucky, I would say the opportunity is probably in the $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion range, Durgesh in total. The piece that could pull into the 5-year period would probably be in the $1 billion to $2 billion. So as you know, we had generation replacement in the $15 billion bucket, right, the $27 to $30 bucket of our $27 billion.

是的。所以對於肯塔基州，我想說機會可能在 15 億到 25 億美元之間，Durgesh 總共。可以進入 5 年期間的部分可能在 10 億到 20 億美元之間。所以如你所知，我們在 150 億美元的桶中進行了一代更換，對，我們 270 億美元中的 27 到 30 美元桶。

And -- so as we look at what we're seeing now with the CPCN filing where I think we're going to see some of that pull into '25, '26 as we prepare for '27, 2028 in service dates for some of these options. So $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion total, $1 billion to $2 billion moving potentially into the 5-year period.

而且 - 所以當我們看看我們現在看到的 CPCN 文件時，我認為我們會看到其中一些進入'25，'26，因為我們為一些服務日期的'27，2028做準備這些選項。因此，總計 15 億至 25 億美元，10 億至 20 億美元可能進入 5 年期。

Got it. And how about just the Rhode Island opportunity here? You've got the AMF, the GMV. Should we -- is there a way to kind of handicap what the CapEx upside might be there?

知道了。那麼這裡的羅德島機會又如何呢？你有 AMF，GMV。我們是否應該 - 有沒有辦法阻礙資本支出的上行空間？

Yes, I think the ranges that we provided incorporate, what we're talking about with these current filings. And again, once we get through, I think, this first round in the state, we'll be able to narrow that range following next year's -- in next year's update.

是的，我認為我們提供的範圍包括我們在這些當前文件中談論的內容。再一次，我認為，一旦我們通過了該州的第一輪，我們將能夠在明年的更新中縮小範圍。

And then just one, hopefully, quickly following up. The -- you have -- am I right in thinking about the balance sheet capacity that whether it's the Kentucky upside or the (inaudible) CapEx upside that you can absorb that without having to issue equity?

然後只有一個，希望能迅速跟進。你有 - 我在考慮資產負債表能力時是否正確，無論是肯塔基州的上行還是（聽不清）資本支出的上行，你都可以在不必發行股票的情況下吸收它？

Yes. We resized the balance sheet to not only fund the CapEx we had in the plan, but those 2 upsides as well, yes.

是的。我們調整了資產負債表的大小，不僅為計劃中的資本支出提供資金，而且還為這兩個好處提供資金，是的。

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 David Arcaro。

I was just wondering, would you be able to talk about or size the potential upside in transmission CapEx that's outside of the offshore transmission opportunities, if you're seeing any?

我只是想知道，如果您看到任何情況，您是否能夠談論或評估海上輸電機會之外的輸電資本支出的潛在優勢？

Are you specifically referring to Rhode Island or more generally, David?

戴維，您是具體指羅德島還是更籠統的指代？

More generally, I was thinking.

更一般地說，我在想。

Yes. So we continue to look at transmission across the portfolio in all 3 of our jurisdictions. Continue to see opportunity for additional system hardening as well as smart grid technology in those networks, primarily in Rhode Island and Kentucky.

是的。因此，我們繼續研究我們所有 3 個司法管轄區的投資組合的傳輸。繼續在這些網絡中看到額外的系統強化和智能電網技術的機會，主要是在羅德島和肯塔基州。

So definitely see additional opportunity there. I would say in the $27 billion, we have that opportunity in there. Again, that's probably an area where maybe some of that to get pulled in from the back half of the decade into the current 5-year plan. But that will all be part of our more fulsome update once we get through the regulatory filings in Kentucky and then come out with our normal cadence with our update would be on the year-end call in February. But -- yes, those are all areas that we're looking at.

所以肯定會在那裡看到更多的機會。我想說，在 270 億美元中，我們有這樣的機會。同樣，這可能是一個領域，其中一些可能會從本世紀後半期被納入當前的 5 年計劃。但是，一旦我們通過肯塔基州的監管文件，然後以我們的正常節奏出來，我們的更新將在 2 月份的年終電話會議上進行，這將成為我們更全面更新的一部分。但是——是的，這些都是我們正在關注的領域。

Okay. Understood. And then wondering if you could give an update, just a level of kind of execution risk in achieving the O&M cost cuts in terms of the backdrop that you're seeing right now? And just looking over the next 12 months, what's your level of confidence in being able to kick things off aggressively on that path?

好的。明白了。然後想知道你是否可以提供更新，只是在你現在看到的背景下實現 O&M 成本削減的某種執行風險？看看接下來的 12 個月，您對能夠在這條道路上積極開展工作的信心程度如何？

Yes, we're feeling very confident in our ability to hit at least the $150 million by 2025. Again, we talked about a potential upside to that beyond 2025. Joe talked about for the 2022 forecast, really 2 main areas there, weather and then O&M the real source of O&M, both in Rhode Island and Kentucky is the result of our business transformation and centralization efforts.

是的，我們對到 2025 年至少達到 1.5 億美元的能力充滿信心。我們再次討論了 2025 年後的潛在上升空間。Joe 談到了 2022 年的預測，實際上有兩個主要領域，天氣和那麼 O&M 是 O&M 的真正來源，在羅德島和肯塔基州都是我們業務轉型和集中化努力的結果。

And so we're -- I would say we're ahead of schedule on that, David, which is great. And so it just gives us further confidence that we'll be able to at least hit the $150 million going into 2025.

所以我們 - 我會說我們在這方面提前了，大衛，這很棒。因此，這讓我們更有信心，我們至少能夠在 2025 年達到 1.5 億美元。

Next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Michael Lapides。

Just curious on the Kentucky generation transformation opportunity. Can you remind us how much does that depend on an acceleration of coal plant retirements? And what's your -- like, has your forecast of the timing of shutting down some of the coal plants in the state changed?

只是對肯塔基一代轉型機會感到好奇。您能否提醒我們，這在多大程度上取決於燃煤電廠的加速退役？您對關閉該州某些燃煤電廠的時間的預測是否發生了變化？

So the transformation initiatives in Kentucky are really not, I would say, directly tied to -- well, they're certainly not tied to accelerating our coal plant retirement. So our existing retirement dates other than 1 unit that we had in 2034 that we think may need to be pulled up into the 2020s as a result of the EPA Good Neighbor rule.

因此，我想說，肯塔基州的轉型舉措實際上與 - 嗯，它們當然與加速我們的燃煤電廠退休無關。因此，我們現有的退休日期不是我們在 2034 年擁有的 1 個單位，我們認為由於 EPA 好鄰居規則，我們可能需要將其推遲到 2020 年代。

But other than that, our existing end-of-life depreciation dates are what's in the plan, Michael. On the transformation initiatives or the O&M reduction initiatives, we're just -- that's enabling us to just be more prudent in how we're looking at outage scheduling and overall O&M on those plants that will be retiring in 2024 and 2028.

但除此之外，我們現有的報廢折舊日期都在計劃中，邁克爾。在轉型計劃或 O&M 減少計劃方面，我們只是——這使我們能夠更加謹慎地看待將在 2024 年和 2028 年退役的那些工廠的停電計劃和整體 O&M。

So there's some linkage there, but I wouldn't say it's really dependent. And then in terms of overall acceleration of coal plant retirements, we're really not factoring that into our update today. Again, other than that one 2034 plant and the potential for that to get pulled in. But again, as we see economics continue to change, regulation continue to change, that's certainly something that we will continue to keep an eye on. But our existing depreciation dates are really what's driving the CapEx opportunity there.

所以那裡有一些聯繫，但我不會說它真的依賴。然後就燃煤電廠退休的整體加速而言，我們真的沒有將其納入今天的更新中。同樣，除了那個 2034 年的工廠和它被拉入的可能性之外。但是，隨著我們看到經濟不斷變化，監管不斷變化，這肯定是我們將繼續關注的事情。但我們現有的折舊日期才是真正推動資本支出機會的因素。

Okay. So if you don't build a combined cycle in the next 5 to 7 years, do you see yourself is having a shortage of effective base load or non-intermittent generation by the latter part of the decade?

好的。因此，如果您在未來 5 到 7 年內不建設聯合循環，您是否認為自己會在這十年的後半段面臨有效基本負荷或非間歇發電短缺的問題？

I don't necessarily want to speculate on that, Michael. I think we're kind of finishing the analysis right now for the CPCN. We'll make that filing with the commission, and then we'll go through the regulatory process there. So would rather not speculate on what is like that until we get through the process with the commission.

我不一定想對此進行推測，邁克爾。我想我們現在差不多要完成 CPCN 的分析了。我們將向委員會提交該文件，然後我們將在那裡完成監管程序。因此，在我們完成與委員會的流程之前，寧願不要猜測那是什麼。

Got it. So in other words, the CPCN filing will show a supply and demand for the service territories in Kentucky and, therefore, will show whether there's a potential -- effectively the supply need?

知道了。所以換句話說，CPCN 文件將顯示肯塔基州服務區域的供需情況，因此，將顯示是否存在潛在的——有效的供應需求？

Absolutely. So we're updating the load forecast. So we're including all of the economic development that we're seeing in the state. So that's an increased to load. We're updating our DSM and energy efficiency plan. So that will be a decrease to load.

絕對地。所以我們正在更新負載預測。所以我們包括了我們在該州看到的所有經濟發展。所以這增加了負載。我們正在更新我們的 DSM 和能源效率計劃。所以這將減少負載。

So we'll have a full-blown updated load forecast. We'll look at all the capacity that's retiring and then the amount of the capacity and energy required to meet that load on a 24/7 basis. So yes, all of that will be included in the filing. That will all be public on the KPSC's website.

因此，我們將有一個全面更新的負載預測。我們將查看所有正在退役的容量，然後是 24/7 全天候滿足該負載所需的容量和能源量。所以是的，所有這些都將包含在文件中。這一切都將在 KPSC 的網站上公開。

You'll see all of the input and output assumptions that we made from the modeling that we've done. The only thing we'll do is we'll see confidential protection on any commercially sensitive information like the actual bid prices from the RFP. But other than that, you'll get a very clear picture of the supply need and the least cost solution to solve that.

您將看到我們根據已完成的建模做出的所有輸入和輸出假設。我們唯一要做的就是看到對任何商業敏感信息（例如 RFP 中的實際投標價格）的保密保護。但除此之外，您將非常清楚地了解供應需求以及解決該需求的最低成本解決方案。

The next question comes from Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Paul Zimbardo。

Just want to check on the interest rate side of the house. I know in the past, you've been active on hedging and just -- have you added any new additional swaps, hedges, anything like that? Just broadly, if you could comment on comfort about the variable rate exposure?

只想檢查房子的利率方面。我知道過去，你一直在積極進行對沖，只是 - 你是否添加了任何新的額外掉期、對沖等類似的東西？從廣義上講，您是否可以對可變利率敞口的舒適度發表評論？

Sure. I'll let Joe take that.

當然。我會讓喬拿走那個。

Yes, sure. So Paul. So from a variable rate exposure, about 15% of our consolidated long-term debt portfolio is floating rate. So the total debt portfolio is about $13 billion. We feel comfortable with that level of floating rate exposure and really don't see any material impact to the plan from fluctuations that we've seen to date in interest rates.

是的，當然。所以保羅。因此，從可變利率敞口來看，我們合併的長期債務組合中約有 15% 是浮動利率。因此，總債務組合約為 130 億美元。我們對這種浮動利率敞口水平感到滿意，並且確實沒有看到我們迄今為止看到的利率波動對該計劃產生任何實質性影響。

And so maybe I could just make a couple of comments overall on interest rates broadly even outside of the floating rate exposure. We still feel very good about our plan despite the recent rise in interest rates. And so -- and we -- obviously, we reaffirmed our long-term growth forecast this morning.

因此，即使在浮動利率風險敞口之外，也許我也可以就廣泛的利率發表一些評論。儘管最近利率上升，我們仍然對我們的計劃感到非常滿意。因此 - 我們 - 顯然，我們今天早上重申了我們的長期增長預測。

We've discussed several times and on our Investor Day that we've developed a plan that's low risk and contemplated the macro headwinds that we see, including interest rates, and there are several factors that we have and levers that we have within our plan to help offset the higher rates.

我們已經多次討論過，在我們的投資者日，我們已經制定了一個低風險的計劃，並考慮了我們看到的宏觀逆風，包括利率，我們有幾個因素和我們計劃中的槓桿以幫助抵消較高的利率。

Those are tracking mechanisms that we have in our jurisdictions to help mitigate exposure. 55% of our capital runs through some form of tracker or rider. Obviously, we're very focused on operational efficiencies we have the potential to outperform on our savings targets within this plan period.

這些是我們在我們的管轄範圍內擁有的跟踪機制，以幫助減少風險。我們 55% 的資金通過某種形式的跟踪器或騎手運行。顯然，我們非常關注運營效率，我們有可能在此計劃期內超越我們的儲蓄目標。

And then from a load perspective, we've not incorporated any load growth in our current business plan. And we do continue to see low growth in both Pennsylvania and Kentucky. And in Kentucky, we have known incremental upside as well with the economic development that's been announced recently within the state. And then just on Rhode Island, we are decoupled there, so load is not a factor.

然後從負載的角度來看，我們沒有將任何負載增長納入我們當前的業務計劃。我們確實繼續看到賓夕法尼亞州和肯塔基州的低增長。在肯塔基州，我們已經知道該州最近宣布的經濟發展帶來的增量增長。然後就在羅德島，我們在那裡解耦，所以負載不是一個因素。

Okay. Great. And just following up on the load side actually. I was kind of curious, things seem to be moving around a bit between Kentucky, Pennsylvania. Residential was a little weak in Pennsylvania, but strong Kentucky and the opposite for industrial. So just if you could give a little bit more insight on what you're seeing on the ground?

好的。偉大的。實際上只是在負載方面跟進。我有點好奇，事情似乎在肯塔基州和賓夕法尼亞州之間移動了一點。賓夕法尼亞州的住宅有點弱，但肯塔基州很強，而工業則相反。那麼，是否可以就您在實地看到的情況提供更多的見解？

Yes, sure. So I would say in both jurisdictions, the general economy continues to be strong. You're seeing that in Pennsylvania C&I load even in Kentucky, C&I -- commercial is up. Industrial is down in Kentucky really due to one steel manufacturer and this is really just a year-over-year anomaly where last year, there was a lot of pent-up demand coming out of the pandemic.

是的，當然。所以我想說，在這兩個司法管轄區，總體經濟繼續保持強勁。你看到賓夕法尼亞州的 C&I 負載甚至在肯塔基州，C&I -- 商業廣告已經開始。肯塔基州的工業下降實際上是由於一家鋼鐵製造商，這實際上只是同比異常情況，去年大流行導致大量被壓抑的需求。

And so the production was higher than we've ever seen it. And so we've kind of, I would say, normalized back to normal levels for that one steel customer. And then on -- so really no underlying issues with the economy there. And then you're right, on the residential, we saw a bit of a dip in the third quarter versus last year.

所以產量比我們見過的要高。因此，我想說，對於那個鋼鐵客戶，我們已經恢復到正常水平。然後繼續——所以那裡的經濟真的沒有潛在的問題。然後你是對的，在住宅方面，我們看到第三季度與去年相比有所下降。

We really think that, that's related to just customers' immediate response to the high commodity prices that we're seeing now flow through our bills, right? So the wholesale prices are up and we're adjusting our prices accordingly. And then so we think there's some level of just conservation going on within the residentials to try to manage their bills there. But again, no underlying impacts around the general economy. I think that continues to look strong.

我們真的認為，這與客戶對我們現在看到的高商品價格的即時反應有關，對吧？所以批發價上漲了，我們正在相應地調整我們的價格。然後，我們認為住宅內正在進行某種程度的保護，以試圖管理他們在那裡的賬單。但同樣，對整體經濟沒有潛在影響。我認為這看起來仍然很強勁。

The next question comes from Nick Campanella with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Nick Campanella。

So I just wanted to ask on the credit side. And I'm sorry if I'm making you repeat yourself. I don't know if I heard it, but just as we think about the kind of potential megawatt additions that you're contemplating in Kentucky, can you execute on those without additional, call it, growth equity capital?

所以我只想問信用方面。如果我讓你重複一遍，我很抱歉。我不知道我是否聽到了，但就像我們考慮您正在肯塔基州考慮的那種潛在的兆瓦增加一樣，您能否在沒有額外的情況下執行那些，稱之為增長股權資本？

Yes, we can, Nick.

是的，我們可以，尼克。

Okay. Great. And then just how does IRA kind of affect your credit stance, if at all?

好的。偉大的。那麼 IRA 是如何影響您的信用狀況的（如果有的話）？

Not a major impact on credit. So really, the AMT provision is probably maybe where you're going on that. Again, we don't see any impact on our cash flows coming from the AMT. We generally use our tax attributes. When we sold WPD, we were about a 15% taxpayer in our projections anyway.

對信用影響不大。所以說真的，AMT 條款可能就是你要去的地方。同樣，我們認為 AMT 對我們的現金流沒有任何影響。我們通常使用我們的稅收屬性。無論如何，當我們出售 WPD 時，根據我們的預測，我們大約是 15% 的納稅人。

Of course, they modified right, the rules there at the very end. There's still a lot of regulation that still needs to come from treasury on the final act. So when we look at it, Nick, really not anticipating any impact on our cash position as a result of AMT. And then on the other provisions, the clean energy provisions, obviously, those are supportive of us being more competitive on company-owned renewables versus third-party PPAs. But again, that's not going to really drive any credit impacts.

當然，他們修改對了，規則在最後。在最後的行動中，仍然有很多監管需要來自財政部。因此，當我們審視它時，尼克真的沒有預料到 AMT 會對我們的現金頭寸產生任何影響。然後是其他條款，清潔能源條款，顯然，這些條款支持我們在公司擁有的可再生能源方面比第三方 PPA 更具競爭力。但同樣，這不會真正推動任何信貸影響。

The next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.

下一個問題來自 Glenrock Associates 的 Paul Patterson。

Just a few quick follow-ups. The remuneration component in Rhode Island that I think you guys are foregoing in the RFP. I just wasn't clear why that was taking place? Or could you give a little bit more color as to the thought process behind that?

只是一些快速跟進。我認為你們在 RFP 中提到的羅德島薪酬部分。我只是不清楚為什麼會這樣？或者您能否就其背後的思維過程給出更多的顏色？

Yes. The way the final law came out on that, Paul, was that we were only able to earn that remuneration up until 2026. And if you look at the -- when those contracts will actually come online that would not happen within the window that was allotted in the law. So there really wasn't any reason to try to go after any remuneration when the reality is we wouldn't be able to pick up any given the timing constraints in the law.

是的。保羅，最終法律的出台方式是，我們只能在 2026 年之前獲得該報酬。如果你看看——當這些合同真正上線時，這不會發生在窗口內法律規定的。因此，當現實是我們無法在法律的時間限制下獲得任何報酬時，真的沒有任何理由試圖追求任何報酬。

Okay. That makes sense. And then the Elia JV, I read the release, I think, from last week. Just other than Elia's expertise in our experience in Europe. Is there anything else that you can elaborate on in terms of the competitive advantage you guys think that you guys are mentioning today and on the release, I mean, sort of like what do you think -- could you give a little bit more color with respect to that?

好的。那講得通。然後是 Elia JV，我讀了上週的新聞稿。除了 Elia 在我們在歐洲的經驗方面的專業知識。關於你們今天和發佈時提到的競爭優勢，你們還有什麼可以詳細說明的嗎？尊重那個？

Well, I certainly don't want to talk about where we think our competitive advantages would be versus competing bidders in that process. But again, I would just say, given Elia's deep expertise in offshore and our deep expertise in onshore and ISO understanding of the ISOs and siting, operating and building transmission here in the U.S. I think our partnership creates a great opportunity for us to bring innovative solutions to New England. But I don't want to get into any more detail on that.

好吧，我當然不想談論在那個過程中我們認為我們的競爭優勢與競爭投標人的競爭優勢在哪裡。但是，我只想說，鑑於 Elia 在海上的深厚專業知識以及我們在陸上和 ISO 對 ISO 以及在美國這裡選址、運營和建設傳輸的理解的深厚專業知識，我認為我們的伙伴關係為我們創造了一個很好的機會來帶來創新新英格蘭的解決方案。但我不想對此進行更多詳細說明。

Okay. You guys (inaudible) give away your competitive advantage. But I just -- could be anywhere beyond -- I mean, you mentioned New England, but is there any thought of -- anything wider than New England or just New England?

好的。你們（聽不清）放棄了您的競爭優勢。但我只是 - 可能在任何地方 - 我的意思是，你提到了新英格蘭，但有沒有想過 - 比新英格蘭或新英格蘭更廣泛的任何地方？

Potentially, there could be opportunity there. Obviously, the New England opportunity is in front of us right now, and that's where we're focused. But again, I think the opportunity for a long-term partnership with Elia is certainly there.

潛在地，那裡可能有機會。顯然，新英格蘭的機會現在就在我們面前，這就是我們關注的地方。但同樣，我認為與 Elia 建立長期合作夥伴關係的機會肯定存在。

And given our 2 skill sets, it's not unique to necessarily to just New England. But clearly, that's where our focus is right now.

鑑於我們的 2 種技能，它不一定只適用於新英格蘭。但很明顯，這就是我們現在的重點。

The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Anthony Crowdell。

Quick following up on Paul's question earlier on load. You gave some nice detail and I know Rhode Island is decoupled, so it really doesn't matter, but you mentioned you are seeing some residential load cutback maybe because of high bills. Just thought on where you're forecasting load growth in '24 or even in your 5-year period, if you've provided that.

快速跟進 Paul 早些時候在加載時提出的問題。你提供了一些很好的細節，我知道羅德島是脫鉤的，所以這真的無關緊要，但你提到你看到一些住宅負荷減少可能是因為高額賬單。只要考慮一下您預測 24 年甚至 5 年期間的負載增長（如果您提供了）。

Yes. So our current plan, we have really no load growth built in for PA and Kentucky. So we're relatively flat across that period.

是的。所以我們目前的計劃，我們真的沒有為賓夕法尼亞州和肯塔基州內置負載增長。所以我們在那個時期相對平穩。

Does the change in residential cause concern on your plan? Or do you think it's going to be more temporary in that you'll be able to hit your plan on flat?

住宅的變化是否會影響您的計劃？還是您認為這會更暫時，因為您可以按計劃完成計劃？

Yes. I think it's likely temporary, but it's also just the way our tariff structures are, Anthony. We're really most heavily weighted to load fluctuations in Kentucky. PA, we do have some impact from load, but it's not as impactful as Kentucky just because of the way we have demand charges and fixed charges in PA versus those levels in Kentucky.

是的。我認為這可能是暫時的，但這也是我們關稅結構的方式，安東尼。我們真的最重視肯塔基州的負載波動。賓夕法尼亞州，我們確實對負載產生了一些影響，但它不像肯塔基州那樣有影響，只是因為我們在賓夕法尼亞州的需求費用和固定費用與肯塔基州的水平相比。

But -- yes, what we're seeing in PA, one, I think you're right, that will probably be more of a temporary reaction to the pricing but also just the tariff structure doesn't give us really pause for concern.

但是 - 是的，我們在賓夕法尼亞州看到的，一個，我認為你是對的，這可能更多是對定價的臨時反應，而且只是關稅結構並沒有讓我們真正停下來關注。

Great. And just lastly, you gave some great detail earlier on, on a lot of CapEx opportunities. if I could just take a step back and wonder, is there -- do you think there's any ability within the current 5-year plan of changes to the rate base growth rate or that if those plans come to fruition that, that's more something on the back end of the decade? You talked about AMI, you talked about some RFP in Kentucky. Just is that the ability for that to maybe hit the 5-year plan?

偉大的。最後，您早些時候就許多資本支出機會提供了一些非常詳細的信息。如果我可以退後一步想知道，你認為當前 5 年計劃中是否有任何能力改變利率基礎增長率，或者如果這些計劃實現，那就更重要了十年後？你談到了 AMI，你談到了肯塔基州的一些 RFP。只是這有可能達到5年計劃的能力嗎？

Yes. As I talked earlier, again, I think the total CapEx opportunity in Kentucky is probably in the $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion range, Anthony. But I think $1 billion to $2 billion of that could actually come into the 5-year period, which obviously would raise rate base growth, that -- compared to what our current plan shows.

是的。正如我之前所說，我認為肯塔基州的資本支出總額可能在 15 億至 25 億美元之間，安東尼。但我認為其中的 10 億至 20 億美元實際上可以進入 5 年期間，這顯然會提高利率基礎增長，與我們目前的計劃相比。

The next question comes from David Paz with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 David Paz。

You may have just addressed this, but let me maybe ask it differently. When you update your long-term EPS growth outlook in February, will you incorporate the Kentucky CPCN filing into your growth target? And if so, how much do you anticipate the gap between that long-term rate base and EPS growth targets to narrow?

您可能剛剛解決了這個問題，但讓我換個方式問。當您在 2 月份更新您的長期 EPS 增長前景時，您是否會將肯塔基 CPCN 備案納入您的增長目標？如果是這樣，您預計長期利率基礎與每股收益增長目標之間的差距會縮小多少？

Yes. Joe, do you want to talk to that?

是的。喬，你想和那個談談嗎？

Yes. Sure, David. So we'll incorporate at least some of that CapEx that we would file relative to the CPCN when we update our plan next year. As far as closing the gap between rate base and earnings growth, I think it's a little early to say exactly how much that will close.

是的。當然，大衛。因此，當我們明年更新計劃時，我們將至少納入我們將提交的與 CPCN 相關的部分資本支出。至於縮小利率基礎和盈利增長之間的差距，我認為現在說具體縮小多少還為時過早。

It will certainly close because you think about the generation need in Kentucky and those units coming off-line, the whole units coming offline in 2028. We'll need the new generation to be ready to serve load at that time. And so construction would have to start probably beginning in 2025.

它肯定會關閉，因為你考慮到肯塔基州的發電需求和那些即將下線的機組，整個機組將在 2028 年下線。屆時我們需要新一代準備好為負載服務。因此，建設可能必須在 2025 年開始。

So I think you'd see incremental capital related to replacement gen in '25 and '26, which certainly would help to close the current gap between rate base growth and earnings growth.

因此，我認為您會在 25 年和 26 年看到與替代發電相關的增量資本，這肯定有助於縮小當前利率基礎增長與收益增長之間的差距。

Yes, David, I would just say that update will be a fulsome update, right? So we will not just update it for Kentucky CapEx related to generation, but across the portfolio where we see incremental capital needs. Again, we've talked about transmission in prior questions. So we'll do a fulsome update to Joe's point, that will help close the gap between the two.

是的，大衛，我只想說更新將是一個令人興奮的更新，對吧？因此，我們不僅會更新與發電相關的肯塔基州資本支出，還會更新我們看到增量資本需求的整個投資組合。同樣，我們在之前的問題中談到了傳播。因此，我們將對 Joe 的觀點進行全面更新，這將有助於縮小兩者之間的差距。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Vince Sorgi for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Vince Sorgi，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Great. Thank you. Just want to thank everybody for joining us today, and we're looking forward to seeing everybody at EEI. Stay safe, and we'll see you soon.

偉大的。謝謝你。只想感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待在 EEI 見到大家。保持安全，我們很快就會見到你。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。