PPG Industries Inc (PPG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Elliot, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the fourth quarter PPG earnings conference call.

早安.我叫艾利歐特，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加PPG第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Jonathan Edwards, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Sir.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係總監喬納森·愛德華茲 (Jonathan Edwards)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Elliot, and good morning, everyone. This is Jonathan Edwards. We appreciate your continued interest in PPG and welcome you to our fourth quarter 2023 financial results conference call. Joining me on the call from PPG are Tim Knavish, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Vince Morales, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and John Bruno, Vice President of Finance.

謝謝你，艾利奧特，大家早安。這是喬納森·愛德華茲。我們感謝您對 PPG 的持續關注，並歡迎您參加我們的 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。與我一起參加 PPG 電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Tim Knavish；文斯‧莫拉萊斯，資深副總裁兼財務長；和財務副總裁約翰·布魯諾。

Our comments relate to the financial information released after U.S. equity markets closed on Thursday, January 18, 2024. We have posted detailed commentary and accompanying presentation slides on the investor center of our website, ppg.com. The slides are also available on the webcast site for this call and provide additional support to the opening comments Tim will make shortly.

我們的評論涉及 2024 年 1 月 18 日星期四美國股市收盤後發布的財務資訊。我們已在我們網站 ppg.com 的投資者中心發布了詳細評論和隨附的演示幻燈片。這些幻燈片也可在本次電話會議的網路廣播網站上獲取，並為蒂姆很快將發表的開場評論提供額外支持。

Following management's perspective of the company's results, we will move to a Q&A session. Both the prepared commentary and discussion during this call may contain forward-looking statements reflecting the company's current view of future events and their potential effect on PPG's operating and financial performance. These statements involve uncertainties and risks, which may cause actual results to differ.

根據管理階層對公司業績的看法，我們將進入問答環節。本次電話會議期間準備的評論和討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，反映公司當前對未來事件及其對 PPG 營運和財務表現的潛在影響的看法。這些陳述涉及不確定性和風險，可能導致實際結果有所不同。

The company is under no obligation to provide subsequent updates to these forward-looking statements. The presentation also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Company has provided in the appendix of the presentation materials, which are available on our website, reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. For additional information, please refer to PPG's filings with the SEC.

該公司沒有義務提供這些前瞻性陳述的後續更新。此簡報也包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。本公司已在我們網站上提供的簡報資料附錄中提供了這些非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標的調節表。如需了解更多信息，請參閱 PPG 向 SEC 提交的文件。

And now let me introduce PPG's Chairman and CEO, Tim Knavish.

現在讓我介紹一下 PPG 董事長兼執行長 Tim Knavish。

Thank you, Jonathan, and congratulations on your new role, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. I'd like to start by providing a few highlights on our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial performance, and then I will move to our outlook.

謝謝你，喬納森，恭喜你擔任新職務，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。首先，我想介紹我們第四季和 2023 年全年財務表現的一些要點，然後我將談談我們的展望。

In the fourth quarter, the PPG team delivered strong financial results, including record fourth quarter sales of $4.4 billion and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.53. This is our fourth consecutive quarter of delivering record sales as we continue to benefit from organic sales growth.

第四季度，PPG 團隊取得了強勁的財務業績，其中第四季度銷售額達到創紀錄的 44 億美元，調整後每股攤薄收益為 1.53 美元。這是我們連續第四個季度實現創紀錄的銷售額，因為我們繼續受益於有機銷售成長。

Our fourth quarter adjusted EPS was 25% higher year-over-year driven by aggregated segment margin improvement of 260 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 as we continue to be laser-focused on driving margin improvement.

與 2022 年第四季相比，我們在第四季度調整後每股收益年增 25%，這是由於我們繼續專注於推動利潤率改善，因此細分市場利潤率總體提高了 260 個基點。

Our results reflect our continuing growth trends and strong execution in several of our leading and technology advantage businesses, which culminated in record fourth quarter sales in the Aerospace, Automotive OEM and Automotive Refinish businesses with strong performance in the Protective & Marine and PPG Mexico Architectural Coatings businesses.

我們的業績反映了我們在多個領先和技術優勢業務中的持續成長趨勢和強勁執行力，在航空航太、汽車OEM 和汽車修補漆業務中實現了創紀錄的第四季度銷售額，在防護與船舶和PPG 墨西哥建築塗料業務中表現強勁企業。

Our year-over-year sales volume trend improved compared to recent quarters, decreasing less than 1% year-over-year. We continue to experience lower global industrial production along with soft U.S. and European architectural demand, especially for DIY-related products.

與最近幾季相比，我們的同比銷售趨勢有所改善，年減不到 1%。全球工業生產持續下降，美國和歐洲建築需求疲軟，尤其是 DIY 相關產品。

Notable for us during the quarter was China, where despite a lethargic general economy, we achieved high single-digit percentage volume growth, reflecting our strong mix of businesses in the country. In addition, we delivered flat year-over-year volumes in Europe as we see economic stabilization in the region, albeit at lower absolute demand levels. Our selling prices were about 2% higher with both segments delivering positive price led by the Performance Coatings segment.

本季我們值得注意的是中國，儘管整體經濟低迷，但我們實現了高單位數百分比的銷售成長，反映出我們在該國的業務組合強勁。此外，我們在歐洲的交付量與去年同期持平，因為我們看到該地區的經濟穩定，儘管絕對需求水準較低。我們的銷售價格上漲了約 2%，其中以高性能塗料部門為首的兩個部門都實現了正價格。

We expect total company selling prices to remain modestly positive in the first quarter of 2024 as new selling price increases have been implemented in several of our businesses. We also benefited from further normalization of our operations as we experienced stabilization of both upstream and downstream supply chains and order patterns.

我們預計 2024 年第一季公司總銷售價格將保持適度正值，因為我們的幾項業務已經實施了新的銷售價格上漲。隨著上下游供應鏈和訂單模式的穩定，我們也受益於營運的進一步正常化。

From a supply perspective, the vast majority of our suppliers have more than sufficient capacity heading into 2024. We started the year laser-focused on margin recovery and the fourth quarter marked our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year operating segment margin improvement. And as I mentioned, fourth quarter aggregate segment operating margins increased 260 basis points year-over-year and full year increased 310 basis points.

從供應角度來看，到 2024 年，我們絕大多數供應商的產能都綽綽有餘。今年伊始，我們重點關注利潤率恢復，第四季度標誌著我們營運部門利潤率連續第五個季度同比改善。正如我所提到的，第四季部門總營業利潤率年增 260 個基點，全年成長 310 個基點。

We also achieved our second key priority for the year by delivering excellent cash generation of nearly $900 million during the fourth quarter, which was up over $300 million on a year-over-year basis, leading to record full year cash generation of over $2.4 billion. We significantly reduced working capital by a total of about $600 million on a sequential quarterly basis and this includes the benefit from a partial reduction of our inventory levels. However, we still ended the year with higher inventory levels from a historical perspective, primarily in raw materials and will continue to reduce inventory in the first half of 2024.

我們還實現了今年的第二個關鍵優先事項，第四季度實現了近 9 億美元的出色現金生成，同比增長超過 3 億美元，全年現金生成量創歷史新高，超過 24 億美元。我們按季度環比大幅減少了總計約 6 億美元的營運資金，其中包括部分減少庫存水準帶來的好處。然而，從歷史角度來看，我們年底的庫存水準仍然較高，主要是原料方面，並將在 2024 年上半年繼續減少庫存。

The strong cash generated drove a reduction in net interest expense by about $20 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 as we repaid some high variable cost debt during the quarter. Additionally, we repurchased $100 million of stock in the fourth quarter, which essentially offset dilution.

由於我們在本季度償還了一些高可變成本債務，因此產生的強勁現金使淨利息支出比 2022 年第四季減少了約 2,000 萬美元。此外，我們在第四季度回購了 1 億美元的股票，這基本上抵消了稀釋。

Now a few comments on the full year 2023, as we communicated at the beginning of 2023, my priorities included margin recovery, strong cash generation and further strengthening of our capabilities to support our customers' productivity and sustainability needs, which will result in higher PPG organic growth.

現在對2023 年全年進行一些評論，正如我們在2023 年初所傳達的那樣，我的優先事項包括利潤恢復、強勁的現金生成以及進一步加強我們支持客戶生產力和可持續發展需求的能力，這將導致更高的PPG有機成長。

Coming into 2023, we had a high degree of conviction that our global business portfolio would prove resilient while anticipating a challenging economic environment, and these clearly played out during the year. For the full year, I'm proud of our team's execution against our strategic objectives as it resulted in delivery of record sales, record adjusted EPS and record operating cash flow.

進入 2023 年，我們堅信我們的全球業務組合將在經濟環境充滿挑戰的情況下保持彈性，而這一點在這一年中得到了明顯體現。全年，我為我們團隊執行策略目標而感到自豪，因為它帶來了創紀錄的銷售額、創紀錄的調整後每股收益和創紀錄的營運現金流。

And our sales performance was led by continued selling price execution to offset significant multiyear cost inflation. Our year-over-year earnings' growth was driven by these improved selling prices coupled with moderating input costs and cost structure reductions stemming from our cost management and restructuring initiatives. This resulted in improved margins in both segments.

我們的銷售業績得益於持續的銷售價格執行，以抵銷多年來顯著的成本通膨。我們的年比獲利成長是由於銷售價格的提高，加上成本管理和重組措施帶來的投入成本的緩和和成本結構的降低所推動的。這導致兩個部門的利潤率都有所提高。

Our businesses delivered innovative and value-added products and solutions to our customers, and this enabled several of our businesses to set all-time annual sales records, including our Aerospace, Auto OEM, Automotive Refinish, Architectural Mexico and the Protective & Marine Coatings businesses. Our enterprise growth initiatives delivered about $150 million of incremental sales in the first year, including strong growth from selling our innovative products for electric vehicles as well as our share gains in powder coatings.

我們的業務為客戶提供創新和增值的產品和解決方案，這使我們的多個業務創下了歷史年度銷售記錄，包括我們的航空航太、汽車 OEM、汽車修補漆、墨西哥建築以及防護和船舶塗料業務。我們的企業成長計畫在第一年實現了約 1.5 億美元的增量銷售額，其中包括電動車創新產品銷售的強勁成長以及粉末塗料市場份額的成長。

In automotive refinish, customer adoption of our industry-leading digital tools accelerated yielding nearly 2,000 net body shop wins. These digital tools include our Link Services and moonwalk mixing machines, both of which are best-in-class and are focused on improving body shop productivity.

在汽車修補漆領域，客戶對我們領先業界的數位工具的採用加速了近 2,000 個車身修理廠的淨勝利。這些數位工具包括我們的 Link Services 和 Moonwalk 混合機，這兩種工具都是一流的，專注於提高車身車間的生產力。

In Mexico, we further advanced cross-selling of our valued products, including protective coatings and certain light industrial coatings through the best-in-class distribution network of nearly 5,200 concessionaire locations.

在墨西哥，我們透過由近 5,200 個特​​許經營點組成的一流分銷網絡，進一步推進了我們有價值的產品的交叉銷售，包括防護塗料和某些輕工業塗料。

Finally, our strong focus on the customer drove share gains across several businesses including expansion of our architectural coatings products at Walmart. Strategically, we conducted an ongoing review of both our product and business portfolios leading to the divestiture of several non-core assets including our European and Australian Traffic Solutions businesses, along with the recently announced strategic alternatives review of the silicas product business.

最後，我們對客戶的強烈關注推動了多項業務的份額成長，包括在沃爾瑪擴展我們的建築塗料產品。從策略上講，我們對我們的產品和業務組合進行了持續審查，導致剝離了包括我們的歐洲和澳洲交通解決方案業務在內的多項非核心資產，以及最近宣布的對二氧化矽產品業務的戰略替代審查。

In a variety of cases, we also simplified and improved our product offering, allowing us to reduce complexity and drive down working capital. Finally, these actions plus strong balance sheet management resulted in record full year 2023 cash generation of $2.4 billion.

在各種情況下，我們也簡化和改進了我們的產品供應，使我們能夠降低複雜性並降低營運資本。最後，這些行動加上強而有力的資產負債表管理，導致 2023 年全年現金產生量達到創紀錄的 24 億美元。

So overall, we achieved excellent financial results in 2023 and are anticipating improving from this higher base in 2024. We remain confident that we will deliver positive sales volume in 2024, including benefits from China, India and Mexico. We've delivered share gains in several businesses, including Auto Refinish, Packaging and the Protective & Marine Coatings businesses.

因此，總體而言，我們在2023 年取得了出色的財務業績，並預計在2024 年在此基礎上有所改善。我們仍然有信心在2024 年實現積極的銷量，包括來自中國、印度和墨西哥的收益。我們在多項業務中實現了份額成長，包括汽車修補漆、包裝以及防護和船舶塗料業務。

We will also execute on our more than $250 million order backlog in Aerospace drive further growth in our well-positioned businesses in Mexico and further expand the benefits of our key growth initiatives, including powder coatings, electric vehicle products and digital solutions. We will drive further improvement of our operating margins aided by the sales volume growth leverage and our initiatives that drive manufacturing productivity following several years of supply chain and other disruptions.

我們還將執行航空航太領域超過 2.5 億美元的積壓訂單，推動我們在墨西哥定位良好的業務的進一步成長，並進一步擴大我們關鍵成長計畫的效益，包括粉末塗料、電動車產品和數位解決方案。在銷售成長槓桿和我們在經歷了幾年的供應鏈和其他中斷之後提高製造生產力的舉措的幫助下，我們將進一步提高我們的營業利潤率。

Lastly, we entered 2024 with a strong balance sheet, which provides us with the flexibility for further shareholder value creation going forward, including funding organic growth initiatives, appropriate acquisitions, debt repayment and share repurchases.

最後，我們以強勁的資產負債表進入 2024 年，這為我們未來進一步創造股東價值提供了靈活性，包括為有機成長計劃、適當的收購、債務償還和股票回購提供資金。

Now I'll comment on our first quarter outlook. We expect to deliver sequential adjusted EPS growth from $1.53 per share in Q4 2023 to a range of $1.80 to $1.87 per share in Q1 of 2024, an increase of 20% at the midpoint of the range.

現在我將評論我們的第一季前景。我們預計調整後每股盈餘將從 2023 年第四季的 1.53 美元成長到 2024 年第一季的每股 1.80 美元至 1.87 美元，中間值成長 20%。

We anticipate global industrial production to remain soft, and our year-over-year sales volume performance will be unfavorably impacted by the approximate $40 million nonrecurring Walmart customer load-in that occurred in the first quarter of 2023. Also, the timing of the Easter holiday will shift some sales into the second quarter.

我們預計全球工業生產將保持疲軟，我們的同比銷量表現將受到 2023 年第一季約 4000 萬美元的非經常性沃爾瑪客戶載入的不利影響。此外，復活節的時間安排假期將把部分銷售轉移到第二季。

Despite these difficult year-over-year comparison items, we expect our first quarter sales volume will be flat overall aided by positive sales volume growth in our Aerospace, Protective & Marine and Packaging Coatings businesses. We project solid growth in our Auto OEM business in Asia Pacific where we expect to drive solid volume growth in China, led by our strong positioning with the electric vehicle OEM producers.

儘管存在這些困難的同比比較項目，但我們預計，由於航空航天、防護與船舶和包裝塗料業務的銷量積極增長，我們第一季的銷量總體將持平。我們預計亞太地區的汽車 OEM 業務將實現穩健成長，在我們與電動車 OEM 生產商的強大定位的帶動下，我們預計將推動中國銷量的穩健成長。

Additionally, we expect to deliver organic sales growth through our best-in-class Mexico distribution platform. We anticipate overall company selling prices to remain positive as some modest declines in our industrial reporting segment related to a small portion of customer-based index contracts will be more than offset by targeted selling price increases in our Performance Coatings segment.

此外，我們希望透過我們一流的墨西哥分銷平台實現有機銷售成長。我們預計公司整體銷售價格將保持正值，因為我們的工業報告部門與一小部分基於客戶的指數合約相關的小幅下降將被我們高性能塗料部門的目標銷售價格上漲所抵消。

First quarter comparisons also include declines in certain transitory European and energy-related pricing indices that were put in place during the period of extremely high energy prices in the region. These particular price declines are offset by lower purchased energy costs for our facility.

第一季的比較還包括某些短暫的歐洲和能源相關定價指數的下降，這些指數是在該地區能源價格極高期間制定的。這些特定的價格下降被我們工廠購買能源成本的降低所抵消。

The net selling price increases, along with various productivity initiatives will serve to offset somewhat higher expected wage inflation in 2024, especially in emerging regions. With regard to commodity raw materials, supply remains ample, and we will continue to realize benefits from moderating input costs including further recognition of savings stemming from working down our higher inventories as we progress through 2024.

淨銷售價格的上漲以及各種生產力措施將有助於抵消 2024 年預期工資通膨的上升，特別是在新興地區。就大宗商品原料而言，供應仍然充足，我們將繼續從降低投入成本中獲益，包括進一步認識到隨著 2024 年的進展，減少較高庫存所帶來的節省。

We will diligently manage our costs and expect to deliver manufacturing and productivity gains supported by a more stable supply chain and customer order patterns. We anticipate more moderate year-over-year earnings' growth in the first quarter associated with some of the transitory items I mentioned earlier.

我們將努力管理成本，並期望在更穩定的供應鏈和客戶訂單模式的支持下實現製造和生產力的提高。我們預計第一季的年比獲利成長將更為溫和，這與我之前提到的一些臨時項目有關。

However, we are confident that we will deliver our commitment for full year earnings' growth of around 10% at our forecast guidance midpoint. Finally, I want to thank our more than 50,000 employees for making it happen by delivering excellent 2023 financial results and positioning the company for growth and value creation in 2024 and beyond for the benefit of all stakeholders. Thank you for your continued confidence in PPG. And this concludes our prepared remarks.

然而，我們有信心兌現全年獲利成長 10% 左右的承諾（以我們的預測指引中點計算）。最後，我要感謝我們的50,000 多名員工，他們在2023 年取得了出色的財務業績，並為公司在2024 年及以後的增長和價值創造做好了準備，造福了所有利益相關者，從而實現了這一目標。感謝您對 PPG 的持續信任。我們準備好的演講到此結束。

And now would you please open the line for questions.

現在請您開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

First question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Tim and Vince, do you expect total company pricing to be up in '24? And I presume that if it is, it's a positive performance than industrial. Within performance, are you seeing pressure from big box retailers to lower your paint prices?

Tim 和 Vince，您預計 24 年公司總定價會上漲嗎？我認為如果是的話，這將是比工業領域更積極的表現。在業績方面，您是否看到大型零售商要求降低塗料價格的壓力？

Dave, thanks for the question. We will have positive company price for full year 2024. Again, to your point, largely from Performance Coatings and more targeted beyond that. As far as big box pricing, most of the big box pricing is contractual and so I wouldn't say that you'll see a significant movement in that pricing throughout the year.

戴夫，謝謝你的提問。我們將在 2024 年全年獲得積極的公司價格。同樣，就您的觀點而言，主要來自高性能塗料，並且除此之外更有針對性。就大盒子定價而言，大部分大盒子定價都是合約定價，因此我不會說您會在全年看到該定價的重大變動。

Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 John McNulty。

So maybe a little bit more color on the raw material front. Can you speak to relative to what you reported in the fourth quarter, how much lower our raw materials that you're buying right now? Because it does look like things are held up a little bit because of FIFO and also some of your destocking. Is it just the mid-single-digit dip that you guided to for 1Q? Or is there more to it than that? And how should we be thinking about that?

所以也許在原料方面多一點色彩。您能否談談相對於您在第四季度報告的情況，您現在購買的原材料下降了多少？因為由於先進先出以及您的一些去庫存，事情看起來確實有點受阻。這只是您指導的第一季中個位數下降嗎？或者有比這更多的事情嗎？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes, John, this is Vince. If you look throughout all of last year, we continued to accrue larger benefits from the moderation of raw materials. We will remind everybody raw material costs are still higher on a multiyear basis by a significant amount. As Tim mentioned, most of our suppliers have more than ample capacity, and it's certainly a focus for them to pick up more volume. We expect some incrementally better invoice benefits from raw materials, and then that will eventually flow through our P&L as we go through the year. But year-over-year, we expect some incrementally beneficial invoice pricing.

是的，約翰，這是文斯。如果你縱觀去年全年，我們繼續從原料的節制中獲得更大的利益。我們要提醒大家的是，多年來原物料成本仍大幅上漲。正如蒂姆所提到的，我們的大多數供應商都擁有充足的產能，因此增加銷售無疑是他們的重點。我們預計原材料會帶來一些逐漸更好的發票收益，然後隨著我們這一年的發展，這些收益最終將流入我們的損益表。但與去年同期相比，我們預期發票定價會逐漸有利。

And I would just add -- this is Tim, John. Thanks for the question. I would just add that fundamentally, upstream of us, it's still a pretty long environment. No issues on our end from availability and I think that's a good indicator for us as we move through the year as well.

我想補充一下──這是提姆，約翰。謝謝你的提問。我想補充一點，從根本上來說，在我們的上游，它仍然是一個相當長的環境。我們的可用性沒有出現任何問題，我認為這對我們來說也是一個很好的指標，因為我們在這一年也是如此。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 和 Baird。

Tim, I want to go back to the question that was asked earlier about pricing. As you kind of zoom out a bit, price for PPG as a whole has been up over 20% since 2021, and a lot of that is just enormity of the raw material cycle and so on and so forth, which seems to have changed significantly. Your confidence on pricing holding or being up in 2024 and maybe even beyond that, is that based partly on the mix change in the portfolio with Aerospace and so on and so forth? Or is there something unique about the industry structure now that's going to allow you to hold on to the enormity of these price increases, but (inaudible) doing what they're doing.

提姆，我想回到之前提出的有關定價的問題。如果你稍微縮小一下範圍，自 2021 年以來，PPG 的整體價格已經上漲了 20% 以上，其中很大一部分只是原材料週期的巨大影響等等，這似乎已經發生了重大變化。您對 2024 年甚至更遠的情況下保持定價或上漲的信心，部分是基於航空航天等投資組合的組合變化嗎？或者，現在的行業結構是否有一些獨特之處，可以讓您堅持這些價格上漲的幅度，但（聽不清楚）做他們正在做的事情。

It's not a mix issue for us, Ghansham. It's more -- first of all, I'm very pleased with how we've continued to hold price, even just closing out fourth quarter with another 2% increment. Again, we'll be positive in Q1, the confidence level is more because of a couple of things. One, to Vince's point earlier, raws are still quite elevated. We're talking about coming off of extremely high peaks. And so -- but they're still quite elevated from, say, 2019.

對我們來說，這不是一個混合問題，Ghansham。更重要的是，首先，我對我們繼續保持價格感到非常滿意，即使第四季結束時價格又上漲了 2%。同樣，我們對第一季持樂觀態度，由於幾件事，信心水平更高。第一，按照文斯之前的觀點，原始數據仍然相當高。我們談論的是從極高的山峰上下來。所以——但與 2019 年相比，它們仍然相當高。

So we don't see what I would characterize as massive deflation by any means. And the confidence level as we move through the year, I'll talk Performance Coatings. We -- as you know well, we get price almost irrespective there of the raw material environment because of the unique value proposition that we deliver in Performance where we're such a small part of the cost structure of our customers from a pure paint standpoint, but the value-add outside of the can that we deliver is such a big significant impact on their cost structure.

因此，無論如何，我們都看不到我所說的大規模通貨緊縮。以及我們今年的信心水平，我將談論高性能塗料。如您所知，我們的價格幾乎與原材料環境無關，因為我們在性能方面提供了獨特的價值主張，從純塗料的角度來看，我們只佔客戶成本結構的一小部分，但我們提供的罐外增值對他們的成本結構產生了巨大的影響。

So that's a very different model there. And on industrial side, where maybe it is more proportionate to raw material increases or decreases. We just don't see the long supply dynamic upstream of us changing dramatically as we move through the year. When you think about, for example, China, just not having a V-shaped rebound and China is a big consumer of raws. So we expect a more moderate environment as we move through 2024.

所以這是一個非常不同的模型。在工業方面，可能與原料的增加或減少更成比例。我們只是沒有看到我們上游的長期供應動態在這一年中發生巨大變化。例如，當你想到中國時，只是沒有 V 型反彈，而中國是原料消費大國。因此，我們預期 2024 年的環境會更加溫和。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的達菲費雪。

Two questions. First is cash flow as a percent of EBITDA, if you hit the midpoint of your guide this year, EBITDA should be up about $250 million. Should we expect a commensurate move in cash flow would be one and then two, in the Auto OE business, you guided to down low single digits coming into Q4. You did mid-single digits up, again, guiding down in Q1, is that just conservatism? Because when you look at the auto numbers, it seems like Auto OE should be better than that unless there's some pricing in there. So can you just talk about what you're seeing in Auto OE for Q1 price versus volume?

兩個問題。首先是現金流量佔 EBITDA 的百分比，如果今年達到指引的中點，EBITDA 應該會增加約 2.5 億美元。如果我們預期汽車原配業務的現金流量會相應變化為一，然後是二，您指導第四季度的現金流量將下降到較低的個位數。您再次實現了中個位數的上漲，並在第一季引導下跌，這只是保守主義嗎？因為當你查看汽車數據時，似乎 Auto OE 應該比那更好，除非那裡有一些定價。那麼您能否談談您在汽車原廠第一季的價格與銷售方面所看到的情況？

Yes. Duffy, this is Tim. I'll take -- I'll do the auto one. I'll let Vince do the cash versus EBITDA one. Auto had a really good year for us last year, and we are well positioned for what we view as a multiyear recovery. So I personally continue to be bullish on auto as we look into the full year 2024.

是的。達菲，這是提姆。我會做——我會做自動的。我會讓文斯做現金與 EBITDA 的比較。去年，汽車產業對我們來說是非常好的一年，我們已經為我們認為的多年復甦做好了準備。因此，在展望 2024 年全年時，我個人繼續看好汽車產業。

When you look at our Q1, and we went from up mid-single digits in Q4, and we're projecting low single digits down in Q1, a lot of that, if you go back to last year, we were a strong double digit up in Q1 of 2023. And also, yes, there is some, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we do have some of our index pricing rolling back and that has some impact. But I would not -- personally, I'm not overconcerned about auto volumes as we move through the year. I think total builds were 89-point-something last year. I believe there is some incremental upside to that as we move through 2024.

當你看我們的第一季時，我們從第四季度的中個位數上升，我們預計第一季的低個位數下降，其中很多，如果你回到去年，我們是一個強勁的兩位數2023 年第一季上漲。而且，是的，正如我在開場白中提到的，我們確實有一些指數定價回落，這會產生一些影響。但我不會——就我個人而言，我並沒有過度擔心今年的汽車銷售。我認為去年的總建造數是 89 點左右。我相信，隨著 2024 年的到來，這會帶來一些增量的好處。

Our share position is good. Our China auto position is really good. And as you know, out of the 90 million new builds, about 30 million will come out of China. So overall, feeling good about auto. There's a little bit of a year-over-year comp soft point and a little bit of index pricing rolling off in Q1.

我們的股票狀況很好。我們中國汽車的地位確實很好。如您所知，在 9000 萬棟新建建築中，約 3000 萬棟將來自中國。總的來說，對汽車感覺良好。第一季的年比比較軟點和指數定價有所下降。

Just to add, as we talked several times, Duffy, on auto, acceleration in China helps us from an EV perspective as well. So we have more content on any traditional EV than we do otherwise. So that's a -- proper for us in PPG in particular. To your cash flow question, yes, I think the short answer is typically EBITDA would certainly serve as a proxy for cash flow, plus or minus. We have the last couple of years -- expanded answer is we have the last couple of years, had working capital movement that has either helped or hurt the cash flow on a transitory basis.

只是補充一下，正如我們多次談到的，達菲在汽車方面，中國的加速從電動車的角度也對我們有幫助。因此，我們在任何傳統電動車上的內容都比其他方面更多。所以這對我們 PPG 來說尤其合適。對於您的現金流量問題，是的，我認為簡短的答案通常是 EBITDA 肯定可以作為現金流量（正負）的代理。我們過去幾年的情況——擴展的答案是，我們過去幾年的營運資金流動要么會暫時幫助或損害現金流。

We do have, as Tim alluded to in his opening comments, probably a couple of hundred million dollars of excess raw materials in inventory. We're going to work that down in 2024. So that will have a cash flow implication for us in a positive manner. But I think generally, what you're saying in EBITDA and cash flow should be -- the movement should be consistent.

正如蒂姆在開場白中提到的那樣，我們確實有可能有價值數億美元的過剩原料庫存。我們將在 2024 年解決這個問題。這將對我們的現金流產生正面的影響。但我認為一般來說，你所說的 EBITDA 和現金流應該是——變動應該是一致的。

Yes. And Duffy, this is Tim. I'm going to come back with one additional -- Vince mentioned the EV situation. And we all see the headlines on EVs, but that's largely U.S. and Europe right now. And as you know, 2/3 of the world's EVs are made in China, and that content number, if you look at the average PPG content across the EV space for 2023, was up by 20%. So our content per EV built was up by 20% in 2023. So that bodes well for us as well.

是的。達菲，這是提姆。我會再補充一點——文斯提到了電動車的情況。我們都看到有關電動車的頭條新聞，但目前主要是美國和歐洲。如您所知，全球 2/3 的電動車是在中國製造的，如果您查看 2023 年整個電動車領域的平均 PPG 含量，該含量數字將增加 20%。因此，到 2023 年，我們生產的每輛電動車的含量增加了 20%。這對我們來說也是個好兆頭。

Our next question comes from Stephen Byrne with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的史蒂芬伯恩。

Tim, you've been involved in this partnership with Home Depot for a long time. I'm curious to hear your view whether it's going better or worse than what you had expected? And any potential forward in structuring in that relationship in 2024? And if you don't mind, can you just comment on SG&A for 2024? It seemed to really jump in the fourth quarter. Were there some unusuals in there like with your strategic actions? Any comments on that, how should we forecast that going forward?

提姆，您與家得寶的合作關係已經持續很久了。我很想聽聽您的看法，情況是比您預期的更好還是更糟？ 2024 年這種關係的建構有何潛在進展？如果您不介意的話，您能評論一下 2024 年的 SG&A 嗎？看來第四節真的有進步。您的策略行動是否存在一些異常情況？對此有何評論，我們該如何預測未來？

Good morning, Steve. There was -- the quick answer on your second question is there were some unusuals and Vince will take that. But your first one, the Home Depot relationship and progress on the Pro program is going as expected. Quite frankly, the challenge that we have is that as it's growing off relatively small denominator, as you know, it's still being offset by the challenges on the DIY side. DIY is still the Home Depot and the Glynn brand and Olympic brands are still a critical part of our DIY Omnichannel strategy going forward. And unfortunately, the negatives there from a volume standpoint are offsetting the good progress that we have on our Pro Omnichannel between the Home Depot and our own network.

早安，史蒂夫。關於你的第二個問題，快速回答是有一些不尋常的情況，文斯會接受的。但你的第一個，家得寶的關係和專業計劃的進展正在按預期進行。坦白說，我們面臨的挑戰是，正如您所知，隨著它的成長相對較小，它仍然被 DIY 方面的挑戰所抵消。 DIY 仍然是家得寶，格林品牌和奧運品牌仍然是我們未來 DIY 全通路策略的重要組成部分。不幸的是，從數量的角度來看，負面因素正在抵消我們在家得寶和我們自己的網路之間的專業全通路方面取得的良好進展。

If I look at -- just to give some perspective, so Q4, despite the challenges out there, we were up low single digits on our Pro Omnichannel. And our sell out with the Home Depot was one of our better quarters yet. So we're making progress there. But our DIY Omnichannel, which includes not only what we do with the Home Depot, but also our big partner in the Midwest, our DIY remain down. So that's the issue there, but the momentum continues to grow. It's -- as I've said many times, we are building a business model for the future. That's brick-and-mortar light and it's a marathon, not a sprint, and we continue to kick off miles on the marathon. So good progress.

如果我看一下——只是為了提供一些觀點，那麼第四季度，儘管面臨挑戰，我們的專業全通路仍實現了低個位數成長。家得寶 (Home Depot) 的銷售情況是我們迄今為止表現最好的季度之一。所以我們正在那裡取得進展。但是我們的DIY全通路，不僅包括我們與家得寶所做的事情，還包括我們在中西部的大合作夥伴，我們的DIY仍然處於下降狀態。這就是問題所在，但勢頭仍在增長。正如我多次說過的，我們正在建立面向未來的商業模式。這是實體燈，這是一場馬拉松，而不是短跑，我們繼續在馬拉鬆上開始數英里。進步如此之好。

Yes, Steve, on the overhead, I'm going to just look at the whole year. There's always movement between quarters within a year. But on a full year basis, our overhead was up about $380 million. About 1/3 of that is directly correlated to the increase in sales, whether it be volume, price or FX.

是的，史蒂夫，關於管理費用，我只想看看全年。一年內各季度之間總是存在著變動。但以全年計算，我們的管理費用增加了約 3.8 億美元。其中約 1/3 與銷售額的成長直接相關，無論是銷量、價格或外匯。

So on a percentage basis, if you just do the percents comparison, you get about 1/3 of that directly related to our sales movement. Another 1/3 of that on a year-over-year basis, and then Tim alluded to this in his opening remarks, we did have a higher shareholder based and performance-based compensation and the reminder that in the prior year, we had much lower compensation.

因此，以百分比為基礎，如果您只進行百分比比較，您會得到大約 1/3 與我們的銷售變動直接相關的數據。與去年同期相比，又增加了 1/3，然後蒂姆在開場白中提到了這一點，我們確實有更高的基於股東和績效的薪酬，並提醒我們，在上一年，我們有很多較低的補償。

So kind of a doubling effect on a year-over-year basis. And the final third, roughly $100 million or so was inflation and the remainder of that would be growth initiatives for some of the key programs we won throughout the year and including our clinic's growth, et cetera.

與去年同期相比，效果翻倍。最後三分之一，大約 1 億美元左右是通貨膨脹，其餘部分將是我們全年贏得的一些關鍵項目的成長計劃，包括我們診所的成長等。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Is your China strength primarily China for China? Or is it the strong exports of cars that we're seeing out of China?

你們的中國優勢主要是為了中國而中國嗎？還是我們看到中國汽車出口強？

John, it's both. But I mean the vast majority of the vehicles that we paint in China stay in China. The exciting part on the export side is the largest producer of EVs now in the world, a Chinese producer is beginning to export. So that will just be incremental upside but the vast majority of the cars that we paint in China stay in China.

約翰，兩者都是。但我的意思是，我們在中國噴漆的絕大多數車輛都留在中國。出口方面令人興奮的部分是，目前世界上最大的電動車生產商，中國生產商開始出口。因此，這只是增量增長，但我們在中國噴漆的絕大多數汽車仍留在中國。

Yes. And John, I think for our book of business, again, 2023, especially at the beginning part of 2023, it was a tougher year. We're starting to see industrial and some of our other businesses kind of turned the corner in the fourth quarter and now heading into 2024.

是的。約翰，我認為對於我們的商業書籍來說，2023 年，尤其是 2023 年初，這是更艱難的一年。我們開始看到工業和我們的一些其他業務在第四季度出現了好轉，現在正進入 2024 年。

One more job from John Bruno, outside of auto OEM, a very high percentage of the coatings we sell in China are for products that stay in China.

約翰·布魯諾（John Bruno）的另一項工作是，在汽車 OEM 之外，我們在中國銷售的塗料中有很大一部分是用於留在中國的產品。

Our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬許·史佩克特。

So I wanted to follow up on industrial pricing. So when you're talking about down modestly for the first quarter year-on-year, maybe it's 50, 100 basis points, I guess, in the frame of that, does that -- is it stabilized at that level through the year? Or do you expect it to decline? So kind of separating the energy give-back from maybe some of the index pricing.

所以我想跟進工業定價。因此，當你談論第一季同比小幅下降時，我想，在這個框架內，可能是 50、100 個基點，全年是否穩定在這個水平？還是你預期它會下降？因此，將能源回饋與某些指數定價分開。

And I guess when you look at this longer term then, what does this mean for margin potential for the Industrial segment? Are we looking at more normal incrementals from here to price raw still play into that? Or what are the factors that maybe move the margins up from the current level beyond this year?

我想當你從長遠來看，這對工業領域的利潤潛力意味著什麼？我們是否正在考慮從這裡開始對原始價格進行更正常的增量仍然會發揮作用？或者說，哪些因素可能會導致今年以後的利潤率從目前的水平上升？

Yes, Josh, let me start, and I'll let Tim add some color here. But we did. I just want to remind people, and again, we talked about this in opening comments in our prepared remarks we released last evening. Just a reminder, in Q1 last year in Europe, that was exceedingly high. The energy costs, natural gas costs were $30 to $40 per MMBtu depending on the day. Most companies, PPG included, invoked surcharges to pass those through that. We're lapping that in Q1 of this year. That is 1/3 to half of our price decline in the first quarter in the Industrial Coatings segment. And the remainder is organic based on the indices that Tim was talking about.

是的，喬什，讓我開始，我會讓蒂姆在這裡添加一些顏色。但我們做到了。我只是想提醒人們，我們在昨晚發布的準備好的演講中的開場評論中再次討論了這一點。只是提醒一下，去年第一季歐洲的數字非常高。能源成本、天然氣成本為每 MMBtu 30 至 40 美元，具體取決於日期。包括 PPG 在內的大多數公司都會徵收附加費來解決這些問題。我們將在今年第一季實現這一目標。這是工業塗料領域第一季價格下降的 1/3 到一半。剩下的部分是基於蒂姆所說的指數的有機的。

Tim, you have some color here?

提姆，你這裡有顏色嗎？

Yes, I think the question about margin expansion beyond what Vince described in pricing is the volume leverage will be significant on the Industrial segment because that's the segment that really got hit the hardest during COVID and COVID recovery. And so we've still got significant margin upside driven by volume leverage.

是的，我認為關於利潤率擴張的問題超出了文斯在定價中所描述的範圍，即數量槓桿對工業領域將非常重要，因為這是在新冠疫情和新冠疫情復甦期間真正受到打擊最嚴重的領域。因此，在成交量槓桿的推動下，我們的利潤率仍有顯著的上升空間。

The other side, if you go back to our CEO Day in May in New York, we pointed to about $150 million to $200 million of manufacturing productivity gains that we had line of sight to in the coming years, really, not just to get back to where we were pre-COVID, but also as we modernize, automate, digitize our operations. So those will really be the 2 levers that get us to the next horizon on margin largely across the Industrial segment, but somewhat also in the Performance Coatings side.

另一方面，如果你回顧5 月在紐約舉行的執行長日，我們指出，我們預計在未來幾年內，製造業生產力將提高約1.5 億至2 億美元，實際上，不僅僅是為了收回成本。到了新冠疫情之前的水平，而且我們的運營也實現了現代化、自動化和數位化。因此，這確實是兩個槓桿，可以讓我們在工業領域的利潤率上達到新的水平，但在高性能塗料方面也有一定程度的提高。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with VRP.

我們的下一個問題來自 VRP 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Tim, would you elaborate on your volume outlook that's embedded in your '24 guide? Would you expect volumes to be flat or up a little bit? Part of the reason I ask is we've seen many chemical companies suffer from volumes that are trending well below real GDP. And so as you look across your portfolio and survey and forecast, do you think we'll see convergence in 2024? Or are there pockets of residual destocking or other headwinds that might make that more ambitious?

Tim，您能詳細說明一下您的 '24 指南中包含的銷售展望嗎？您預計成交量會持平還是略有上升？我問這個問題的部分原因是我們看到許多化學公司的銷售量遠低於實際 GDP。因此，當您審視您的投資組合、調查和預測時，您認為我們會在 2024 年看到融合嗎？或者是否存在一些殘留的去庫存或其他阻力可能使這項計劃變得更加雄心勃勃？

So first of all, we're going to have positive volume in 2024 for the year. I would -- our sales, we said, are going to be up low single digits. We might have to start putting a fourth letter there because I think the -- I'm sorry, the volume will be a little higher on the low single-digit side and the price will be a little lower on the low single-digit side.

首先，我們將在 2024 年實現正銷量。我會—我們說過，我們的銷售額將成長低個位數。我們可能必須開始在那裡放第四個字母，因為我認為 - 對不起，低個位數一側的數量會稍高一些，而低個位數一側的價格會稍低一些。

But we have volume momentum for really 5 quarters now, minus 3, minus 2, a little lighter, minus 2. Our fourth quarter, we rounded it up to minus 1. It was actually less than minus 1. We're looking at a 0 for Q1. But -- and that includes the impact of the Walmart load-in. It includes the shift from -- of Easter from one quarter to the next.

但我們現在已經有 5 個季度的成交量動量了，負 3，負 2，稍微輕一點，負 2。我們第四季度，我們將其四捨五入為負 1。實際上小於負 1。我們正在考慮Q1為0。但是——這包括沃爾瑪加載的影響。它包括復活節從一個季度到下一個季度的轉變。

So we have momentum on volume, some of it just because of the diversity of our portfolio and where we participate but some of it because of the growth initiatives that we've worked on throughout 2023, where we've picked up share that will start to kick in this year. I think about our Packaging Coatings business, our Industrial Coatings business, our Refinish Coatings business.

因此，我們在銷售上有動力，部分原因是我們投資組合的多樣性以及我們參與的領域，但部分原因是我們在 2023 年全年開展的增長計劃，我們已經獲得了將從中開始的份額今年開始。我想到了我們的包裝塗料業務、工業塗料業務、修補塗料業務。

So it's really the positivity on volume is one even though they've had negative numbers in front of them for much of 2023, we do have volume momentum. We see it flipping in early 2024. And it's a combination of strength of our portfolio positioning and execution on our growth initiatives.

因此，成交量確實是正面的，儘管在 2023 年的大部分時間裡他們的數字都是負數，但我們確實有成交量動力。我們預計這種情況會在 2024 年初發生逆轉。這是我們投資組合定位的優勢和成長計畫執行力的結合。

And just a couple of other items of note, Kevin, we expect Europe to stabilize, which really reflects a lack of a destock. We experienced a destocking, especially in the first half of 2023, and that's -- we feel that ran its course. So stabilization in Europe, which has been a negative for us. And again, China on the 2023 first half basis was light. So again, as that normalizes -- the pandemic effect of that hopefully is behind us. And as that normalizes, we can provide us with some uplift. And we are -- we do have this backlog that Tim alluded to in the opening remarks in Aerospace.

還有其他一些值得注意的事項，凱文，我們預計歐洲將穩定下來，這確實反映了庫存去化的缺乏。我們經歷了庫存去化，尤其是在 2023 年上半年，我們認為這種情況已經結束。歐洲的穩定對我們來說是不利的。再次強調，2023 年上半年的中國市場表現清淡。再說一次，隨著這種情況正常化——大流行的影響有望成為過去。隨著這種情況的正常化，我們可以為我們帶來一些提升。我們確實有蒂姆在《航空航天》開場白中提到的積壓工作。

So we continue to produce more products at our manufacturing sites and that we expect that to continue to grow throughout the year to work down that backlog, which is more than a half a year backlog for us.

因此，我們繼續在我們的製造工廠生產更多的產品，我們預計全年產量將繼續成長，以減少積壓，這對我們來說已經超過半年的積壓。

Our next question comes from Michael Leithead with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的邁克爾·萊特黑德。

I wanted to ask around cash deployment. Your net leverage ended the year towards the lower end of where it's historically been. I guess, 3 very brief questions. One, can you just remind us roughly what target leverage you intend to maintain? Two, how does the M&A market look today, say, relative to returning more cash to shareholders this year? And then third, I think you're guiding to $15 million of interest in 1Q, but about $95 million for the year. So why does that step up so much? I'm assuming that takes into consideration of more cash deployment. Could you just help clarify that?

我想問一下現金部署的情況。您的淨槓桿率在今年底接近歷史低點。我想，三個非常簡短的問題。一，您能大致提醒我們您打算維持多少目標槓桿嗎？第二，例如，相對於今年向股東返還更多現金而言，今天的併購市場看起來如何？第三，我認為您指導第一季的利息為 1500 萬美元，但全年約為 9500 萬美元。那為什麼會增加這麼多呢？我假設這考慮到了更多的現金部署。你能幫忙澄清一下嗎？

Mike, it's Tim. I'll start. Target, we don't write a target in pen because it changes with time, depending on where we are in the execution of our strategy. We're doing some portfolio things. You've seen some announcements in that regard. And where we are on our strength of our balance sheet, very strong right now, but it would be different as the environment changes.

麥克，是蒂姆。我開始吧。目標，我們不會用筆寫下目標，因為它會隨著時間而變化，這取決於我們執行策略的階段。我們正在做一些投資組合的事情。您已經看到了一些這方面的公告。我們的資產負債表目前非常強勁，但隨著環境的變化，情況會有所不同。

M&A, it has -- it was a little quiet there for some time. We're seeing some things come across our desk now. Nothing huge in the pipeline, but we're seeing some assets come across, and we're evaluating those. Overall, on the strength of the balance sheet and deployment, consistent with what I said throughout last year, #1, we're going to focus on continuing to generate strong cash. That gives us a great deal of flexibility. I'm very proud of what the team did in 2023.

併購，有一段時間有點安靜了。我們現在看到一些東西出現在我們的辦公桌上。管道中沒有什麼大的東西，但我們看到了一些資產，我們正在評估這些資產。總體而言，根據資產負債表和部署的實力，與我去年全年所說的一致，#1，我們將專注於繼續產生強勁的現金。這給了我們很大的靈活性。我對團隊在 2023 年所做的事情感到非常自豪。

Just to be very clear, we will not let cash sit on the balance sheet. We'll do what we need to do from dividends. We've got some good organic growth investments that we'll invest in. Love to do some shareholder value accretion -- accretive acquisitions. And if that doesn't come along, then we'll return cash by buying shares. We did some in Q4 for the first time in a long time. And if we've got excess cash sitting on the balance sheet, you can be assured that, that's what we'll do.

需要明確的是，我們不會讓現金留在資產負債表上。我們將從股息中做我們需要做的事情。我們有一些很好的有機成長投資可供投資。喜歡做一些股東價值增值的事情——增值性收購。如果沒有實現，那麼我們將透過購買股票返還現金。我們很長一段時間以來第一次在第四季做了一些事情。如果我們的資產負債表上有多餘的現金，你可以放心，這就是我們會做的。

Now Q1, we're sitting with a lot of cash right now, but we typically consume significant cash in Q1. And so we'll be a little cautious here in Q1 so that we don't get back into paying high interest cost debt, which we just got out of. But beyond that, you should expect us to not let the cash sit there.

現在第一季度，我們現在持有大量現金，但我們通常會在第一季消耗大量現金。因此，我們在第一季會有點謹慎，這樣我們就不會再次支付我們剛剛擺脫的高利息成本債務。但除此之外，你應該預料到我們不會讓現金坐在那裡。

Yes. Let me just add. This is Vince. I just want to reemphasize the key comment Tim said, we prefer a strong balance sheet. Due to the optionality it gives us on many fronts, we feel where we are today, we don't need to let cash grow. We will consume cash through April. That's our traditional seasonality of our businesses. So the $1.5 billion that sits on the balance sheet, we will consume through April. That allows us to not enter the debt markets as significantly as we normally would for commercial paper. At this time of the year, we're typically adding commercial paper throughout -- from now through the end of April.

是的。讓我補充一下。這是文斯。我只是想再次強調提姆所說的關鍵評論，我們更喜歡強勁的資產負債表。由於它在許多方面為我們提供了選擇，我們感覺我們今天的處境，我們不需要讓現金成長。我們將在四月消耗現金。這是我們業務的傳統季節性。因此，我們將在 4 月消耗資產負債表上的 15 億美元。這使我們能夠不像通常進入商業票據那樣大量進入債務市場。每年的這個時候，我們通常會在整個過程中添加商業票據——從現在到四月底。

So that's why our interest cost in Q1 will be lower because we're going to use the cash on hand to fund that seasonal inventory build. That cash will then -- we typically generate strong cash in the back half of the year, which is we'll deplete our interest income. And then as we generate that strong cash in the back half of the year, we'll look at other uses.

這就是為什麼我們第一季的利息成本會較低，因為我們將使用手頭上的現金來為季節性庫存建設提供資金。然後，這些現金將 - 我們通常會在今年下半年產生強勁的現金，這將耗盡我們的利息收入。然後，當我們在下半年產生大量現金時，我們將考慮其他用途。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑夫澤考斯卡斯。

I was wondering whether you could comment on the direction of titanium dioxide prices? Secondly, you make a fuss over the difference between or you make a fuss over your LIFO inventories. So if you would valued things on LIFO instead of FIFO?

請問您能否評價鈦白粉價格走勢？其次，你對兩者之間的差異大驚小怪，或者你對你的後進先出庫存大驚小怪。那麼，您是否願意按照 LIFO 而不是 FIFO 來評估事物呢？

What might the difference have been at the end of the year? And then finally, in your accounts payable and accrued liabilities line, your year-over-year increase, that is a benefit, was about $380 million. And sequentially, maybe it was $250 million. Now you guys don't disaggregate accounts payable from accrued liabilities.

到年底可能會有什麼差異？最後，在應付帳款和應計負債項目中，年成長（即收益）約為 3.8 億美元。接下來，可能是 2.5 億美元。現在你們不將應付帳款與應計負債分開。

Can you explain what's going on there in that many, many companies had much lower accounts payable this year, and it seems to have really worked in the other direction for you?

你能解釋一下到底發生了什麼嗎？今年有很多很多公司的應付帳款要低得多，而且這似乎對你來說確實起到了相反的作用？

Jeff, it's Tim. I'll take titanium dioxide question. And Vince, you can take the more finance-related questions there. TiO2, we see very good availability. We see a long supply chain upstream of us, it's still quite long. And so we're seeing some modestly lower pricing on TiO2 than what we would have seen last year. It's not down as much as some other parts of our basket, but it's definitely down from where we were last year, Jeff.

傑夫，我是提姆。我來回答二氧化鈦的問題。文斯，你可以在那裡回答更多與財務相關的問題。 TiO2，我們看到非常好的可用性。我們看到我們上游的供應鏈很長，而且仍然很長。因此，我們看到二氧化鈦的價格比去年略有下降。它不像我們購物籃中的其他部分那樣下降那麼多，但它絕對比我們去年的水平下降了，傑夫。

And on TiO2, in addition to pricing, I do have to mention that a key part of our strategy is to continue the research work that we do to reduce our titanium dioxide content in our formulas every year without sacrificing any performance. And our team has done a great job there. We're down about 1% per formula over the last several years, and we achieved that again in 2023.

關於二氧化鈦，除了定價之外，我確實必須提到，我們策略的關鍵部分是繼續我們所做的研究工作，每年減少配方中的二氧化鈦含量，而不犧牲任何性能。我們的團隊在那裡做得很好。過去幾年，我們每個配方奶粉的用量下降了約 1%，2023 年我們再次實現了這個目標。

Yes, Jeff, on the balance sheet questions, I'm not going to be able to calculate the FIFO, LIFO impact on the fly here. We can just remind everybody, we're at 75% or so FIFO, the difference between, again, the invoice cost and what we're realizing on the income statement for raw material moderation, that is tens of millions of dollars if we move that to a FIFO.

是的，傑夫，關於資產負債表問題，我無法在這裡計算先進先出、後進先出的影響。我們可以提醒大家，我們的先進先出率約為 75%，發票成本與我們在損益表上實現的原材料節製成本之間的差異，如果我們移動，則為數千萬美元到 FIFO。

I can't calculate it precisely. As it relates to payables, for us, we had a couple of items in the fourth quarter. Our tax provisioning is about $100 million higher. We ended the year on a weekend -- 2-day weekend.

我無法精確計算。由於與應付帳款相關，對我們來說，我們在第四季度有幾個項目。我們的稅收撥備高出約 1 億美元。我們在一個週末結束了這一年——兩天的週末。

So our accounts payable is higher because of that. There's natural FX in that number on a year-over-year basis. And we had, as you saw, an environmental special for about $30 million where we accrued $30 million for future environmental spending. And we talked about the compensation increase in the fourth quarter. So those are the big elements in our payables on a year-over-year basis.

因此，我們的應付帳款較高。與去年同期相比，這個數字包含自然匯率。正如你所看到的，我們有一項大約 3000 萬美元的環境特別計劃，其中我們為未來的環境支出積累了 3000 萬美元。我們談到了第四季度的薪資成長。因此，這些是我們逐年應付帳款的重要組成部分。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

A few quick ones from me. In the first quarter, I get the timing shift of Easter, but February also had an extra day this year. So does that not offset the Easter impact and then also on TiO2, how much Chinese TiO2 are you guys buying these days? And how much of it is in Europe? And have you changed any purchasing patterns as a function of the EU's investigation to Chinese imports?

我的一些快速的。在第一季度，我得到了復活節的時間轉移，但今年二月也多了一天。那麼這是否不能抵消復活節的影響以及鈦白粉的影響，你們這些天購買了多少中國鈦白粉？其中有多少是在歐洲？您是否因歐盟對中國進口產品的調查而改變了任何採購模式？

And then lastly, the Pro Architectural business has been holding up an awful lot better than the DIY, just in a similar -- fortunately, far enough away from COVID now that I think we should be able to have a conversation about what's driving the DIY weakness other than just a pull forward of volumes. And what's keeping the Pro business so high or so strong because it just seems like there's a disconnect between sort of Pro demand being there, but DIY being so weak.

最後，專業建築業務的表現比 DIY 好得多，只是在類似的情況下——幸運的是，現在距離新冠疫情已經足夠遠了，我認為我們應該能夠就推動 DIY 的因素進行對話除了成交量的拉動之外，還有其他疲軟因素。是什麼讓專業業務保持如此高或如此強勁，因為專業需求的存在與 DIY 的疲軟之間似乎存在脫節。

So if you could help with those 3 things, I'd appreciate it.

因此，如果您能在這三件事上提供幫助，我將不勝感激。

Okay, Vince, this is Tim. On the Q1. Yes, I'd say you're correct. There is an extra day in February. I think the negativity of Easter impacts that more significantly in 1 day because particularly some parts of the world, Europe, vacations before, some vacations after, other parts of the world. We do have -- Easter time is typically a good month for us in Mexico. And so it's more significant than the 1 day. But you are correct.

好的，文斯，這是蒂姆。在 Q1 上。是的，我想說你是對的。二月多了一天。我認為復活節的負面影響在一天內會更顯著，因為特別是世界上的某些地區，歐洲，之前的假期，之後的一些假期，世界其他地區。我們確實有——復活節對我們墨西哥人來說通常是一個美好的月份。所以它比 1 天更重要。但你是對的。

Also on Q1 though, we have -- in addition to the Easter impact, you do have that customer load-in that we mentioned and the energy pricing issue that Vince mentioned earlier. On the Pro DIY, first of all, DIY remains down. And yes, some of it, I don't know if we could put a time stamp exactly on it, but some of it, you could call it COVID -- post-COVID hangover, as people did a lot of pull forward, I think now it's more general inflation and general consumer spending and confidence on remodeling at home.

不過，在第一季度，除了復活節的影響之外，我們還提到了我們提到的客戶加載以及文斯之前提到的能源定價問題。在Pro DIY上，首先，DIY依然低迷。是的，其中一些，我不知道我們是否可以在上面準確地貼上時間戳，但其中一些，你可以稱之為新冠病毒——新冠病毒後的宿醉，因為人們做了很多努力，我現在認為更普遍的通貨膨脹和一般消費者支出以及對國內改造的信心。

And some of it is existing home resale too where sellers -- DIY sellers will paint their house, DIY buyers will paint their house. So I do think some of it is related to what's happening with existing home sales as well. But I do think it's some combination of that and just overall inflation and how it's hitting the average consumer's pocket book and the decisions that they're having to make.

其中一些也是現房轉售，賣家——DIY賣家會粉刷他們的房子，DIY買家會粉刷他們的房子。所以我確實認為其中一些也與現有房屋銷售的情況有關。但我確實認為這是整體通貨膨脹以及它如何打擊普通消費者的錢包以及他們必須做出的決定的某種組合。

On the Pro side, it does remain strong. We do see some areas of weakness, again, in things like existing home resale, some of that's done by pros as well but we see strength in commercial strength and maintenance. And I think that's why it's holding up well. And that's not only a U.S. phenomenon, that's a phenomenon that we see in Europe as well.

在專業版方面，它確實保持強勁。我們確實再次看到了一些弱點，例如現有房屋轉售，其中一些也是由專業人士完成的，但我們看到了商業實力和維護方面的優勢。我認為這就是它保持良好狀態的原因。這不僅是美國的現象，我們在歐洲也看到了這種現象。

TiO2.

二氧化鈦。

Europe, I'm sorry, I missed that element. Yes, the TiO2 Europe, we're watching this process very closely. A couple of things. We have not dramatically shifted. We do buy a good bit from the Chinese TiO2 suppliers. They're an important part of our supply portfolio. And we're watching this process in Europe. We think, number one, it will be a very lengthy process. Number two, we have -- we're constantly working on the diversity of our supply base in TiO2 and the flexibility of that supply base, and we've made significant improvements there and where else we can use the various TiO2 from different parts of the world, including China.

歐洲，抱歉，我錯過了這個元素。是的，歐洲鈦白粉，我們正在非常密切地關注這個過程。有幾件事。我們並沒有發生巨大的轉變。我們確實從中國鈦白粉供應商那裡購買了大量鈦白粉。它們是我們供應產品組合的重要組成部分。我們正在歐洲關注這個過程。我們認為，第一，這將是一個非常漫長的過程。第二，我們不斷致力於 TiO2 供應基地的多樣性和供應基地的靈活性，我們已經在這方面以及我們可以在其他地方使用來自不同地區的各種 TiO2 進行了重大改進。世界，包括中國。

And again, we continue our longer-term initiative of reducing our dependence solely on TiO2 by removing it from our formulations without sacrificing performance. So those 3 things I would point to. Again, we're watching it very closely, and we'll adapt and I'm confident that the -- between the upstream supply being in a long situation and the diversification work that we've done, we'll do what we need to run our business.

我們再次繼續實施長期計劃，透過在不犧牲性能的情況下將其從配方中去除來減少對 TiO2 的依賴。所以我要指出這三件事。再說一次，我們正在非常密切地關注它，我們會適應，我相信，在上游供應處於長期狀態和我們所做的多元化工作之間，我們會做我們需要做的事情來經營我們的業務。

And just to expand on that diversification capability, we continue to add slurry capabilities around the world, which allows us to mix different TiO2 suppliers products and efficiency, we're at a multiyear, 6%, 7% of efficiency in TiO2 in the last 4 or 5 years. And we have very active projects continuing to become more efficient. Some of those could be recognizable in terms of our -- the breadth of our buy.

為了擴大這種多元化能力，我們繼續在世界各地增加漿料能力，這使我們能夠混合不同的 TiO2 供應商產品和效率，我們在過去幾年中 TiO2 的效率達到了 6%、7% 4年或5年。我們有非常活躍的項目，並且持續變得更有效率。其中一些可以根據我們購買的廣度來識別。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Congrats on the new role, Jonathan. I wanted to come back to the volume questions. Tim, it sounded from your answer that flattish in Q1, basically, but you would expect as we progress through the year Q2, we'd probably see positive volumes. It sounded like that. I was wondering if you could clarify that. And Vince, when you mentioned Europe stabilizing, which is obviously a positive sign. But if I think about math of Europe deteriorating in the earlier parts of '23, if it's stabilizing at these low levels, it might suggest that '24, the net would be negative in terms of volume.

恭喜你獲得新角色，喬納森。我想回到音量問題。提姆，從你的回答來看，第一季基本上持平，但你預計隨著第二季的進展，我們可能會看到積極的銷售。聽起來是這樣的。我想知道你能否澄清這一點。文斯，當你提到歐洲穩定時，這顯然是一個積極的跡象。但如果我考慮到歐洲的數學在 23 世紀初期惡化，如果它穩定在這些低水平，則可能表明 24 年，淨交易量將是負數。

So I was wondering if you could speak to that? And also any sort of comments you have with respect to -- I know you indicated that China, you anticipate positive volumes there, particularly with the weak comps. But what you're expecting in the Americas as well would be fantastic.

所以我想知道你能談談嗎？還有您對中國的任何評論——我知道您表示，您預計中國的銷量會出現積極增長，特別是在比較疲軟的情況下。但您對美洲的期待也將是美好的。

Okay. Frank, I'll start. It's Tim. I think your interpretation of my volume comments are spot on. Positive volume for the year, flattish in Q1, and then you should see an uptick soon thereafter. So I do think that's spot on. I know you asked Vince to your question, I'm going to give a quick lead in on Europe. Despite the very benign 2023 volume environment in Europe, we had a record year of earnings in 2023 in Europe.

好的。法蘭克，我要開始了。是蒂姆。我認為你對我的捲軸評論的解釋是正確的。今年成交量為正，第一季持平，不久後您應該會看到成交量上升。所以我認為這是正確的。我知道你向文斯提出了你的問題，我將快速介紹歐洲的情況。儘管歐洲 2023 年的銷售環境非常良好，但我們在 2023 年的獲利仍創下了紀錄。

So yes, it does impact the top line, but our team has really executed well and we had all-time record earnings and also, it's not all of our businesses in Europe, we have -- Arrow is very strong in Europe. Auto had a better-than-expected year in Europe. And frankly, we do expect that to continue. It's really mostly around the Deco market, particularly the Retail Deco market in Europe that saw negative volume. And PMC, PMC had a great European year with -- particularly driven by both Protective & Marine aftermarket. So I'd give that lead into Europe and hand it over to Vince.

所以，是的，它確實影響了營收，但我們的團隊執行得非常好，我們的盈利創歷史新高，而且，這並不是我們在歐洲的全部業務，我們——艾睿在歐洲非常強大。歐洲汽車業今年的表現優於預期。坦白說，我們確實希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。實際上主要是圍繞著裝飾市場，尤其是歐洲的零售裝飾市場出現了負銷量。 PMC 在歐洲度過了美好的一年——特別是在防護和海洋售後市場的推動下。所以我會把歐洲的主導權交給文斯。

Yes. When we say Europe stabilizing in Europe, Europe stabilizing in volumes for '24, we're looking at it quarter-over-quarter, Frank, and I know as you know, we're a very seasonal business there in our Deco, our architectural coatings business. So each quarter, we expect that stabilization respective to the last -- prior year quarter.

是的。當我們說歐洲在歐洲穩定，歐洲在24 年銷量穩定時，弗蘭克，我們正在逐季度地觀察它，我知道正如你所知，我們在德科、我們的德科、我們的德科是一個非常季節性的業務。建築塗料業務。因此，我們預計每個季度都會相對於去年的最後一個季度保持穩定。

So again, on a full year basis, we expect that to be flat, reflecting that year-over-year comp quarter-by-quarter. Again, our view of China is a bit different, I think, than what most markets are seeing. We always have to remind folks, we do not have a large architectural presence in China. One of the heaviest unfavorable items in China is the construction and housing market, very little exposure for us. Again, we're turning the corner on Industrial. Auto is growing.

因此，從全年來看，我們預計這一數字將持平，反映出逐季度的年比情況。我認為，我們對中國的看法再次與大多數市場的看法有所不同。我們總是要提醒人們，我們在中國沒有大量的建築業務。中國最不利的項目之一是建築和房地產市場，對我們來說影響很小。我們再次在工業領域迎來轉機。汽車正在成長。

Our Refinish business is returning in China because of higher miles driven and Aerospace is starting to come back. So our mix of businesses in China helps us. And again, the fact that we don't have that architectural content, the architectural industry draws a lot of raw materials as well. So the fact that, that's down is supportive of our earnings in China.

由於駕駛里程增加，我們的修補漆業務正在中國回歸，航空航太業也開始回歸。因此，我們在中國的業務組合對我們有幫助。再說一遍，事實上我們沒有建築內容，建築業也消耗了大量原料。因此，這一下降支撐了我們在中國的利潤。

And the last part of your question, what are we seeing in the U.S. relative to volume? We've got the PMC business, mostly on the P side, the Protective side, doing well in the U.S., driven a lot by energy spending and infrastructure traffic with infrastructure spending will be stronger this year, Refinish doing very well. And auto, the U.S. SAAR is holding up very well. I know inventories have ticked up a bit, but they're still only at about 40 days. So those would be on the -- and of course, Aero, we're selling everything we can make.

你的問題的最後一部分是，我們在美國看到的相對於交易量的情況是什麼？我們的 PMC 業務，主要是 P 側、保護性側，在美國表現良好，很大程度上受到能源支出和基礎設施交通的推動，今年基礎設施支出將更加強勁，修補漆表現非常好。而汽車方面，美國 SAAR 表現良好。我知道庫存增加，但仍然只有 40 天左右。所以這些都會出現在——當然，Aero，我們正在出售我們所能製造的一切。

So those would be on the positive side of the U.S. ledger. The negative side, again, we've said DIY multiple times, we do expect at least the first half of this year, to be soft there. The only upside there might be that we do believe destocking in that space is behind us.

因此，這些將是美國帳簿上積極的一面。消極的一面，我們已經多次說過 DIY，我們確實預計至少今年上半年會疲軟。唯一的好處可能是我們確實相信該領域的去庫存已經過去了。

And then finally, I would say general industrial coatings driven by just industrial activity, and this could be all kinds of widgets that get painted. That's still a bit soft in the U.S. So that's a bit of a positive and negative ledger here at home, Frank.

最後，我想說的是工業活動驅動的一般工業塗料，這可能是各種需要塗漆的小部件。美國的情況仍然有點疲軟，所以這在國內是一個積極和消極的分類賬，弗蘭克。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyCorp.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyCorp 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Can you just provide an update on your strategic efforts to broaden the product lines with Comex, where are you versus your goals? How -- what are your plans for '24 and maybe broader -- any update on other strategic organic growth initiatives that you talked about last year?

您能否介紹一下您與 Comex 擴大產品線的策略性努力的最新情況，以及您的目標在哪裡？您對 24 年甚至更廣泛的計劃有何更新？您去年談到的其他策略性有機成長計劃有什麼更新嗎？

Yes, sure, Aleksey. So in PPG Comex in Mexico, we said in May, one of our key initiatives was to continue our robust performance and growth in the Deco space, and the team did that another record year, double-digit sales up on the year, but also to introduce other parts of our portfolio to that strong concessionaire network. And we've done that. Protective Coatings were up, let's call it, very high single digits. Adding again, adding that fourth letter, but traffic sales were up double digit. And I just returned, we just had all of our concessionaires together this past weekend and I was down there meeting with them, and they're very bullish on their ability to sell not only Deco, but these protective traffic, powder, light industrial coatings.

是的，當然，阿列克謝。因此，在墨西哥的PPG Comex，我們在5 月表示，我們的關鍵舉措之一是繼續在Deco 領域保持強勁的業績和成長，團隊又實現了創紀錄的一年，銷售額同比增長了兩位數，而且將我們投資組合的其他部分引入這個強大的特許經營網絡中。我們已經做到了。防護塗料的成長，我們可以稱之為，非常高的個位數。再次添加，添加第四個字母，但是流量銷售額增長了兩位數。我剛回來，上週末我們所有的特許經營商都聚集在一起，我在那裡與他們會面，他們非常看好他們不僅銷售 Deco，而且銷售這些保護性交通、粉末、輕工業塗料的能力。

So we're off and running. We just literally on -- I believe it was Monday of this week, introduced powder brands and refinish brands that are specific and dedicated and exclusive to the concessionaire network and that got a very good reception.

所以我們就出發了。我們只是字面上 - 我相信這是本週的星期一，推出了專門針對特許經營網絡的粉末品牌和修補漆品牌，並獲得了非常好的反響。

Your other question on the initiatives that we kicked off last year as part of our enterprise growth strategy, I'd say I'm very pleased with the first year of execution of that enterprise growth strategy. As we said in the opening remarks, those initiatives, just in the first year, generated about $150 million of incremental sales. And some of those initiatives are longer-term initiatives than others and still in development.

關於我們去年啟動的作為企業成長策略一部分的舉措的另一個問題，我想說，我對該企業成長策略的第一年執行感到非常滿意。正如我們在開場白中所說，這些舉措僅在第一年就帶來了約 1.5 億美元的增量銷售額。其中一些舉措是比其他舉措更長期的舉措，並且仍在開發中。

So between powder, films, the Mexico opportunity that we just talked about, EVs up 20% content per vehicle. They're all up and running and I'm very pleased with the progress that we have seen so far.

因此，在粉末、薄膜和我們剛才談到的墨西哥機會之間，電動車每輛車的含量增加了 20%。它們都已啟動並運行，我對迄今為止所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

And if I could just add a little broader commentary. We talked in May about being bullish on the Mexico economy. I think that has come through in space for us in the region. We continue to see reshoring of industrial activity into Mexico. We'll support that with our industrial -- we'll support that certainly with our Comex brand. In addition, one of the things we haven't -- Tim alluded to it on the opening comments, but we haven't talked about it in the Q&A, a second economy for us that's well outpacing most other regional economies is India. And we've got a good position in India as well, and that's supported by, I'll call it reshoring into India or shoring in India that is just starting.

如果我可以添加一些更廣泛的評論。我們五月曾討論過看好墨西哥經濟。我認為這對於我們該地區的太空來說已經實現了。我們繼續看到工業活動回流到墨西哥。我們將透過我們的產業來支持這一點——我們當然會透過我們的 Comex 品牌來支持這一點。此外，我們沒有提到的一件事——蒂姆在開場評論中提到了這一點，但我們沒有在問答中談到這一點，對我們來說，遠遠超過大多數其他區域經濟體的第二個經濟體是印度。我們在印度也擁有良好的地位，這是由我稱之為回流印度或剛開始的印度回流所支持的。

Our next question comes from Laurent Favre with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Favre。

In the presentation, in the list of watch out, you've mentioned the Red Sea situation. And Tim, I was wondering if you could talk about, I guess, how you're looking at the risks there in terms of ability to source impacts on costs. Have you seen anything on that side yet? And on the flip side, on the positive or potential positive, there's such a thing? Could it be a reason for a bit of a restocking along the chain in your customers? Or is it just not big enough of the deal right now?

在簡報中，在註意事項清單中，您提到了紅海局勢。提姆，我想知道您是否可以談談您如何看待成本影響能力的風險。你看到那邊有東西了嗎？另一方面，從積極的或潛在的積極方面來看，有這樣的事情嗎？這是否是您的客戶在供應鏈上進行一些補貨的原因？還是現在的交易規模還不夠大？

Yes. Laurent, it's really not been anything near material to us to this point. First of all, from our direct products, Paint & Coatings don't do very well shipping around the world. We're mostly local for local. So minimal impact on our direct products. Our suppliers, we have -- our suppliers have plenty of capacity. There's plenty of inventory upstream of us. And our suppliers are seeing some delays but they're accounting for that in their production planning and in their logistics planning.

是的。 Laurent，到目前為止，這對我們來說確實不是什麼重要的事情。首先，從我們的直接產品來看，油漆和塗料在全球範圍內的運輸效果不佳。我們主要是本地人。因此對我們直接產品的影響最小。我們的供應商，我們有足夠的能力。我們上游有充足的庫存。我們的供應商發現了一些延誤，但他們在生產計劃和物流規劃中考慮到了這一點。

So we're not expecting any impact to us there to the financial impact. We've seen a few minor, small surcharges being implemented, but frankly, to this point, pretty insignificant. So the piece that we're watching and the reason we listed it on that part of our slide, was we're not certain of the impact on customers particularly if you think about European auto OEMs where they've got sourcing from around the world. And if they're missing any critical parts, it may impact production scheduling, we have seen none of that so far.

因此，我們預計不會對我們的財務產生任何影響。我們已經看到了一些小額附加費的實施，但坦白說，到目前為止，這還相當微不足道。因此，我們正在觀看的內容以及我們將其列在幻燈片的那部分的原因是，我們不確定對客戶的影響，特別是如果您考慮到歐洲汽車原始設備製造商，他們從世界各地採購。如果他們缺少任何關鍵部件，可能會影響生產計劃，但到目前為止我們還沒有看到這種情況。

But that's really the piece we're watching more of our customer impact than on any internal impact. To your restocking, maybe I doubt that we'll see any significant inventory build of Paints & Coatings as a result of this. I think it will be more a movement of inventories upstream of us and how our suppliers deal with their own logistics planning. But again, the fact that they're pretty long right now, we're not expecting any issues.

但這確實是我們更關注客戶影響而不是任何內部影響的部分。對於您的重新進貨，也許我懷疑我們是否會因此而看到油漆和塗料的任何重大庫存增加。我認為這更多的是我們上游的庫存流動以及我們的供應商如何處理自己的物流計劃。但同樣，事實上它們現在已經很長了，我們預計不會有任何問題。

And Laurent, just to put numbers to it. Typically, the average delay to do -- not going through the Red Sea is about 10 to 12 days. So certainly, plan -- we can plan for that on our raw material purchases.

勞倫特（Laurent），只是為了給它加上數字。通常情況下，不穿越紅海的平均延誤時間約為 10 至 12 天。所以當然，要計劃——我們可以在原料採購上製定計劃。

And Laurent, one more for me. We have nothing in the guide for the first quarter for this area.

還有勞倫特，再給我一個。我們第一季的指南中沒有關於這一領域的內容。

Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的派崔克‧坎寧安。

Just on Auto Refinish. It seems like there's maybe some normalization there. So I guess my first question is what's causing lower collision claims in the U.S.? Is there anything structural you can point to like balance of total vehicles trending upwards? And how should we think about the outlook for Refinish for the full year by region?

就在自動修補漆上。似乎那裡可能有一些正常化。所以我想我的第一個問題是什麼導緻美國的碰撞索賠較低？有什麼結構性的東西可以指出，例如車輛總數的平衡呈上升趨勢嗎？我們該如何看待全年各地區修補漆的前景？

Yes, I'll take this one. Refinish had a good year, a record quarter, and that was off of tough comps. Yes, claims still down in the U.S. Still down versus 2019. But we're able to achieve our results even at that level. And what I'll tell you is body shop activity is up and strong. And the only thing -- most of our body shop customers have backlogs, driven mostly by labor availability.

是的，我要這個。 Refinish 度過了美好的一年，創下了創紀錄的季度業績，而且這是在艱難的競爭中實現的。是的，美國的初請失業金人數仍然下降。與 2019 年相比仍然下降。但即使在這個水平上，我們也能取得成果。我要告訴你的是，車身修理廠的活動正在增加並且很強勁。唯一的一件事是——我們的大多數車身修理廠客戶都有積壓訂單，這主要是由於勞動力可用性造成的。

So even though claims are down and we watch that closely, we're still performing. I would also add, largely because of our digital tools, we had a really good share-gain year and even the revenue that we get from those digital tools was up more than 100% year-over-year.

因此，儘管索賠下降並且我們密切關注，我們仍然表現出色。我還要補充一點，很大程度上是因為我們的數位工具，我們今年的份額增長非常好，甚至我們從這些數位工具中獲得的收入也同比增長了 100% 以上。

So we feel good about that moving into this year. We've got a good order book as we sit here today. So yes, we are watching claims and mouse-driven. The only thing I can hypothesize is that the type of driving is maybe a bit different. Most downtowns and cities are still not as crowded as they used to be. We see more claims coming from suburbia than we used to. But overall, we feel positive about this business moving into the year. I'm confident in our best-in-class productivity, value proposition, we're winning shops. So I would say we expect to have another really strong year out of our Refinish business.

因此，我們對今年的進展感到滿意。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們已經收到了一個很好的訂單。所以是的，我們正在關注索賠和滑鼠驅動。我唯一可以假設的是駕駛類型可能有點不同。大多數市中心和城市仍然不像以前那麼擁擠。我們看到來自郊區的索賠比以前更多。但總體而言，我們對今年的這項業務感到樂觀。我對我們一流的生產力和價值主張充滿信心，我們正在贏得商店。所以我想說，我們預計我們的修補漆業務將迎來另一個非常強勁的一年。

Yes. And then regionally, we expect the U.S. and Europe to hang around 0 plus or minus for the year. As we said earlier, we expect China to grow as we see kind of a reopening on a full year basis there. So that's the regional aspects. And just again, to hit on Tim's comment about our digital tools, these are tools we think are best-in-class. We have body shop productivity, focus on those tools. And those are a subscription model for us that didn't exist 3 or 4 years ago.

是的。然後從地區來看，我們預計今年美國和歐洲的成長率將徘徊在 0 正負左右。正如我們之前所說，隨著我們看到全年重新開放，我們預計中國將會成長。這就是區域方面。再次強調一下蒂姆對我們的數位工具的評論，我們認為這些工具是同類中最好的。我們擁有車身車間的生產力，專注於這些工具。這些對我們來說是三、四年前還不存在的訂閱模式。

Our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

I guess just one question, Tim, when you think about the -- achieving the 10% EPS growth at the midpoint, can you sort of break down sort of the key drivers? I know you talked about volume growth quite a bit. Is that low single digits, kind of half, a little bit more? Maybe how much is deflation and anything else that sort of gets you to that 10%?

我想只有一個問題，蒂姆，當你想到 - 在中點實現 10% 的每股收益增長時，你能分解一些關鍵驅動因素嗎？我知道您多次談到了銷量成長。這個數字是低個位數嗎？是一半還是多一點？也許通貨緊縮和其他任何因素能讓你達到那 10%？

Yes, Mike, I guess we'll both have a little bit of extra time this weekend. So we won't be glued to the TV screen based on last week's results. So wish you the best for that. We'll have some, it's a number of things. We'll certainly have positive price, as I mentioned earlier. We will have higher low single digits on volume, which will bring not only the benefit of margin dropping, but we will get better leverage out of our manufacturing assets by finally starting to get positive volume. We'll have manufacturing productivity that will be a piece of that. We do expect, even though it's a bit early to say what will happen on raws in the second half of the year, we do expect price net inflation to continue to be a good guy for us. And beyond that, I just answered some of the enterprise growth initiatives that we talked about.

是的，麥克，我想這個週末我們都會有一些額外的時間。因此，我們不會只盯著上週的結果看電視螢幕。所以祝你一切順利。我們會有一些，有很多東西。正如我之前提到的，我們肯定會有積極的價格。我們的銷售量將達到更高的低個位數，這不僅會帶來利潤率下降的好處，而且我們將透過最終開始獲得正銷量來從我們的製造資產中獲得更好的槓桿作用。我們將擁有製造生產力，這將是其中的一部分。我們確實預計，儘管現在說下半年原材料會發生什麼還為時過早，但我們確實預計價格淨通膨將繼續對我們有利。除此之外，我剛剛回答了我們討論的一些企業成長計畫。

Those things will start to -- some of them have already started kicking in with that $150 million that I mentioned but we'll see continued momentum on those enterprise growth initiatives. Additionally, we got cash deployment. We haven't talked about that. We certainly didn't talk about it as we were rebuilding last year and paying down debt. But that will be another piece of the equation that wasn't there last year.

這些事情將會開始——其中一些已經開始用我提到的 1.5 億美元開始實施，但我們將看到這些企業成長計畫的持續勢頭。此外，我們也進行了現金部署。我們還沒有討論過這個。去年我們正在重建並償還債務時，我們當然沒有談論它。但這將是去年不存在的另一個因素。

Yes. And Mike, just I think it's important, a midpoint of 10%. Our operating results are going to be better than that. We do have some tax headwinds like most companies will have as some of the tax rates around the world move up. So we guided to a higher year-over-year tax rate. So operating results above 10%, offset -- modestly offset by this tax -- a higher tax rate.

是的。麥克，我認為 10% 的中點很重要。我們的經營業績將會比這更好。隨著世界各地一些稅率的上升，我們確實面臨一些稅收阻力，就像大多數公司都會遇到的那樣。因此，我們指導了更高的同比稅率。因此，高於 10% 的經營業績抵消了較高的稅率——該稅收適度抵消了這一影響。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自勞倫斯·亞歷山大和傑弗里斯。

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Obviously, the focus is on China for a good reason, but I was just wondering what India in terms of sales versus China? And if there's any time in the coming years where India will be kind of competing in terms of importance versus China?

我是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。顯然，關注中國是有充分理由的，但我只是想知道印度與中國的銷售額相比如何？未來幾年印度是否會在重要性上與中國競爭？

Dan, this is John Bruno. I can take this. Most people know India has been one of the best economies in the world in 2023. We have a really good position there. We have a JV with Asia Paints. Our sales growth was circa 10% in 2023, and we expect continued good growth in 2024.

丹，這是約翰·布魯諾。我可以接受這個。大多數人都知道，到 2023 年，印度將成為世界上最好的經濟體之一。我們在那裡的地位非常好。我們與亞洲塗料有一家合資企業。 2023 年我們的銷售額成長約為 10%，我們預計 2024 年將繼續保持良好成長。

Yes. We -- our partnership with Asian Paints in India is fantastic and continues to perform very well. And across the same segments that were really strong in the rest of the world, which are doing well over there, automotive OEM, automotive refinish, industrial coatings, protective coatings. So that partnership is really world-class and helps us take our global technology advantage solutions to someone and partner with someone that's best-in-class within India. And so it's a really good story for us, not only in 2023, but going forward.

是的。我們與印度亞洲塗料公司的合作夥伴關係非常好，並且繼續表現良好。在世界其他地區表現強勁的相同細分市場中，汽車原始設備製造商、汽車修補漆、工業塗料、防護塗料也表現良好。因此，這種合作夥伴關係確實是世界級的，有助於我們將我們的全球技術優勢解決方案帶給某人，並與印度一流的人合作。因此，這對我們來說是一個非常好的故事，不僅是在 2023 年，而且是在未來。

And again, going forward, as I alluded to earlier, again, there's a multitude of industries that are establishing or expanding their footprint in India, electronics, automotive, some aerospace. So again, a multitude of global industries that are expanding their footprint.

再說一遍，正如我之前提到的，許多行業正在印度建立或擴大其足跡，包括電子、汽車和一些航空航天。同樣，眾多全球產業正在擴大其足跡。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Congrats on the strong results in '23. So just a question on the guidance. So if I look at the sales guidance, it looks like you are hoping to get to low single-digit organic growth in 2024. Just wanted to confirm that, that would be also including low single-digit volumes.

恭喜 '23 取得的優異成績。所以只是關於指導的問題。因此，如果我查看銷售指南，您似乎希望在 2024 年實現低個位數的自然成長。只是想確認這一點，這也包括低個位數的銷售量。

And if so, how do you see that kind of playing out cadence-wise through the quarters, if you're guiding to flat volumes you want to -- you get to maybe 2% to 3% in Q2 and then mid-single digits in the back half?

如果是這樣，您如何看待整個季度的節奏，如果您希望銷量持平，那麼您在第二季度可能會達到 2% 到 3%，然後是中個位數在後半部分？

And similarly, on the earnings' growth bridge, your guidance kind of implies 1% growth EPS in Q1. So that would kind of require low double digits in Q2 through Q4, maybe something in the order of 13%. Is that the right way to think about it that really some of these onetime items in Q1 holds back your growth and you get more into the low single digits to mid-single digits on sales Q2 to Q3, Q4 and maybe low double digits to mid-teens Q2 through Q4 EPS growth?

同樣，在獲利成長橋樑上，您的指導意味著第一季每股收益成長 1%。因此，這需要第二季到第四季的低兩位數成長，也許是 13% 左右。這是正確的思考方式嗎？第一季的一些一次性產品確實阻礙了您的成長，而您在第二季到第三季、第四季的銷售額中更多地進入了低個位數到中個位數的情況，也許還有低兩位數到中個位數的情況。-第二季度到第四季度的青少年每股收益增長？

I think the math you have, Arun, is definitely accurate. We talked a lot on the call already about factors that affect Q1, some comparable factors last year, et cetera. Again, we're a seasonal business. For us, Q2 and Q3 are very large quarters for our Deco architectural businesses. They're very large, even larger for our traffic businesses. So again, we'll see a pickup in those businesses seasonally, but we're also expecting some different volume tenor than we had last year in those businesses.

阿倫，我認為你的數學絕對是準確的。我們已經在電話會議上討論了很多影響第一季的因素、去年的一些可比較因素等等。再次強調，我們是季節性企業。對我們來說，第二季和第三季對於我們的裝飾建築業務來說是非常大的季度。它們非常大，對於我們的交通業務來說甚至更大。因此，我們將再次看到這些業務的季節性回升，但我們也預計這些業務的銷售量會與去年有所不同。

Tim went through, I think, a laundry list of items earlier that included the leverage on those higher volumes. We also would expect improved manufacturing that we've been working on, and we alluded to in our May CEO update that manufacturing should grow throughout the year.

我想，蒂姆早些時候已經列出了一系列項目，其中包括對這些較高交易量的槓桿作用。我們也期望我們一直致力於改善製造業，並且我們在五月的執行長更新中提到製造業應該在全年中成長。

So again, I definitely agree that Q1 on a year-over-year basis, up modestly, but the back half of the year, we expect to grow in terms of a size.

因此，我再次肯定同意第一季同比略有成長，但在今年下半年，我們預計規模會有所成長。

Our next question comes from Aron Ceccarelli with Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Aron Ceccarelli 和 Berenberg。

I would like to go back to the topic of raw materials cost for a second. Your guidance has been improving throughout 2023. You were guiding down high single digit in Q3 to Q4. When I look at Q1 2023, your raw materials costs were still slightly inflationary. So why are you guiding just for mid-single-digit decline now? What has changed, if anything? Because when I look at gross margin, it expanded 450 basis points year-over-year in Q4. It looks to me this is accelerating. So what is driving this mid-single-digit guidance for Q1, please?

我想再回到原料成本的話題。您的指引在 2023 年全年一直在改善。您在第三季到第四季的指導值下降了高個位數。當我查看 2023 年第一季時，你們的原物料成本仍然略有通膨。那麼，為什麼您現在只預測中個位數的跌幅呢？如果有的話，發生了什麼變化？因為當我看毛利率時，第四季年增了 450 個基點。在我看來，這種情況正在加速。那麼是什麼推動了第一季中個位數的指引呢？

I think as we alluded to earlier, we do expect sequential improvement in the moderation of raw materials Q4 to Q1. And the mix of business for us as we build inventories, and we deplete inventories in Q4. We're building inventories in Q1. So that has a factor. But again, for the full year, we still expect moderation -- further moderation of raw materials for the full year 2024 versus 2023.

我認為，正如我們之前提到的，我們確實預計第四季度到第一季原材料的放緩將出現連續改善。當我們建立庫存並在第四季度耗盡庫存時，我們的業務組合。我們正在第一季建立庫存。所以這是有一個因素的。但同樣，對於全年，我們仍然預計會放緩——與 2023 年相比，2024 年全年原料將進一步放緩。

Our final question today comes from Jaideep Pandya with On Field Investment Research.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 On Field Investment Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

Maybe it's not relevant, but given how low volumes are across the value chain, could you tell us like what is the spare capacity you have? I'm basically asking this question because a lot of investors are wondering if the margin growth left in the Coating sector beyond 2024 and given that it looks like in '25, '26, growth will come from volume. Just wondering what is the spare capacity you have in the system these days? That's my first question.

也許這不相關，但考慮到整個價值鏈的產量很低，您能告訴我們您有多少閒置產能嗎？我問這個問題基本上是因為很多投資人想知道 2024 年後塗料產業的利潤率是否還會成長，考慮到 25 年、26 年的情況，成長將來自銷售。只是想知道現在系統中還有多少剩餘容量？這是我的第一個問題。

The second question is really around raw materials. Do you expect to buy in sync with your volume growth this year? Or would you still destock? And therefore, if your volume growth is, let's say, up 2%, we shouldn't really expect raw material purchasing to be up 2%, it should be maybe 0.

第二個問題其實與原料有關。您預計今年的購買量會與銷售成長同步嗎？或者說你還會去庫存嗎？因此，如果你的銷售成長是，比方說，成長 2%，我們不應該真正期望原料採購成長 2%，它應該是 0。

And the last question really is on Marine Protective. You alluded to firefighting protective. Now one of your competitors is very strong in that area. So have you launched new products and therefore gaining share from that competitor? Or is that the market is just doing very well?

最後一個問題其實是關於海洋防護的。您提到了消防防護。現在，您的競爭對手之一在該領域非常強大。那麼您是否推出了新產品並因此從競爭對手那裡獲得了份額？或者市場只是表現得很好？

Okay. Let me take those on, Jaideep. It's Tim. First of all, capacity, we got plenty of capacity. We have capacity -- volumes are still down significantly versus 2019. And we haven't taken capacity out since 2019. And frankly, I would say, our industry peers and certainly our suppliers, there's capacity. So yes, you're exactly right. You should expect that as volume comes up, certainly, we will get leverage from that volume, which will drop as margin improvement.

好的。讓我來承擔這些，Jaideep。是蒂姆。首先，產能，我們有足夠的產能。我們有產能——與2019 年相比，產量仍然大幅下降。自2019 年以來，我們還沒有削減產能。坦白說，我想說，我們的行業同行，當然還有我們的供應商，都有產能。所以是的，你是完全正確的。你應該預料到，隨著交易量的增加，我們當然會從該交易量中獲得槓桿作用，而隨著利潤率的提高，槓桿作用將會下降。

Second question, raw materials and inventories. We do still have probably a few days higher DOI that we would like to have $100 million, $150 million more raw material inventory than we would like to have. So yes, we will be buying raw materials in Q1 as we get ready for the peak paint season and some of them are more seasonal businesses, but maybe a little bit less than what links directly to demand because of that excess that we're sitting on today.

第二個問題，原料和庫存。我們的 DOI 可能仍比我們希望的高出幾天，比我們希望的原材料庫存多 1 億美元、1.5 億美元。所以，是的，我們將在第一季購買原材料，因為我們為油漆旺季做好了準備，其中一些是更具季節性的業務，但由於我們目前的過剩情況，可能會比直接與需求相關的業務少一點。今天。

And finally, on Marine and Protective, the quick answer is yes. We have launched some new products, new technologies recently in the fire protection area that are quite strong and being well received by the market. For hydrocarbon fire protection is a product called PITT-CHAR NX, which has been very well received and on the cellulosic fire protection side, a product called Steelguard 651 which is also being very well received.

最後，關於海洋和防護，快速的答案是肯定的。我們最近在消防領域推出了一些新產品、新技術，效果相當強勁，受到市場的好評。對於碳氫化合物防火，有一種名為 PITT-CHAR NX 的產品，該產品非常受歡迎；在纖維素防火方面，有一種名為 Steelguard 651 的產品也很受歡迎。

So those new technologies are delivering share gain for us. But separate from fire protection, we've got really a fantastic product on the marine dry dock side that's very sustainable, very fuel efficient and drives -- it's really getting really good market receptivity and we've got a lot of share gains that will be -- we'll reap the benefits of those share gains in 2024 and beyond, and that's a product called Sigmaglide. So it is technology-driven in those spaces.

因此，這些新技術正在為我們帶來份額成長。但除了消防之外，我們在海洋乾船塢方面確實擁有一款出色的產品，它非常可持續，非常省油且驅動——它確實獲得了非常好的市場接受度，我們獲得了很多份額收益，這將我們將在 2024 年及以後從這些份額成長中獲益，這就是一款名為 Sigmaglide 的產品。因此，這些領域是技術驅動的。

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back over to Jonathan Edwards.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉回喬納森·愛德華茲。

Thank you, Elliot. Well done today. We appreciate your interest and confidence in PPG and this concludes our fourth quarter earnings call. Have a good day.

謝謝你，艾利奧特。今天幹得好。我們感謝您對 PPG 的興趣和信心，我們的第四季財報電話會議到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。