Pool Corp (POOL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Pool Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Melanie Hart, Vice President and CFO. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Pool Corporation 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給副總裁兼首席財務官梅蘭妮·哈特 (Melanie Hart)。請繼續。

And welcome to our second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our discussion, comments and responses to questions today may include forward-looking statements, including management's outlook for 2023 and future periods.

歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我們今天的討論、評論和對問題的回答可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括管理層對 2023 年及未來時期的展望。

Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information regarding the factors and variables that could cause actual results to differ from projected results are discussed in our 10-K. In addition, we may make references to non-GAAP financial measures in our comments. A description and reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures is included in our press release and posted to our corporate website in the Investor Relations section.

實際結果可能與今天討論的結果大不相同。我們的 10-K 中討論了有關可能導致實際結果與預測結果不同的因素和變量的信息。此外，我們可能會在評論中提及非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的新聞稿包含對我們的非公認會計準則財務指標的描述和調節，並發佈在我們公司網站的投資者關係部分。

Peter Arvan, our President and CEO, will begin today's call. Pete?

我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Peter Arvan 將開始今天的電話會議。皮特？

Thank you, Melanie, and good morning. Three months ago, you will recall that we said the year was off to a challenging start driven primarily by weather, but we cautiously believed at the time that as the year progressed, things would improve. Although things did improve sequentially, allowing us to post the second best quarter in our company's history, they did not improve as much as we would have liked as weather continued to provide headwinds and new construction remains under pressure.

謝謝你，梅蘭妮，早上好。三個月前，您可能還記得，我們​​說過今年的開局充滿挑戰，主要是由於天氣原因，但我們當時謹慎地相信，隨著這一年的進展，情況會有所改善。儘管情況確實有所改善，使我們能夠創下公司歷史上第二好的季度業績，但由於天氣繼續帶來不利因素，而且新建築仍然面臨壓力，情況並沒有像我們希望的那樣改善。

One notable exception to this is for high-end new construction where demand remains solid. The weather change that we count on to initiate the start of the pool season came later than what we have seen for the last couple of years. This effectively shortened our season as homeowners delayed openings and the cooler weather kept water temperatures lower, which negatively impacts our maintenance business, particularly chemical usage.

一個值得注意的例外是高端新建建築，其需求依然強勁。我們預計泳池季節開始的天氣變化比我們過去幾年所看到的要晚。這實際上縮短了我們的季節，因為房主推遲了開放，而涼爽的天氣使水溫較低，這對我們的維護業務，特別是化學品的使用產生了負面影響。

Higher interest rates and uncertain macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh heavily on new pool construction, particularly at the lower end of the market. Additionally, we have seen some indication that more discretionary purchases like heaters and high-end cleaners have been deferred, but we are seeing resiliency in the remodel market.

較高的利率和不確定的宏觀經濟狀況繼續嚴重影響新資金池的建設，特別是在低端市場。此外，我們還看到一些跡象表明，加熱器和高端清潔劑等更多可自由支配的採購已被推遲，但我們看到改造市場的彈性。

Dealers are reporting that demand for renovation is outpacing demand for new construction in many markets. Despite the challenging market conditions, POOLCORP recorded a strong quarter, demonstrating the power of the brand and tremendous execution by the team.

經銷商報告稱，許多市場對翻修的需求超過了對新建建築的需求。儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，POOLCORP 仍取得了強勁的季度業績，展示了品牌的力量和團隊的強大執行力。

We continue to invest in our growth and focus on the customer experience, which is helping us retain and grow our market share. We have opened 8 new sales centers since the beginning of the year, far more than the rest of the industry combined. Pinch A Penny has added 9 new stores since the beginning of the year, adding to our already impressive network of over 275 franchise stores.

我們繼續投資於我們的增長並關注客戶體驗，這有助於我們保持和擴大我們的市場份額。自今年年初以來，我們已新開設了 8 個銷售中心，遠遠超過行業其他公司的總和。自今年年初以來，Pinch A Penny 已新增 9 家新店，進一步豐富了我們已經擁有超過 275 家特許經營店的令人印象深刻的網絡。

Our ability to manage operating expenses in a declining demand environment is noticeable as our operating expenses declined 3% on a year-over-year basis in a quarter, even though we continue to invest in our new locations, new technology and our people.

儘管我們繼續投資於新地點、新技術和員工，但我們在需求下降的環境下管理運營費用的能力還是顯而易見的，一個季度的運營費用同比下降了 3%。

POOL360 adoption is growing as dealers are recognizing the added benefit and time savings that they receive by using the latest release of the tool. Additionally, we are launching our POOL360 water test application at our independent retailers, which is a best-in-class online water testing solution that helps dealers provide water chemistry excellence and drive sales of our private label chemical brands.

POOL360 的採用率正在不斷增長，因為經銷商認識到使用最新版本的工具可以帶來額外的好處並節省時間。此外，我們還在獨立零售商處推出 POOL360 水質測試應用程序，這是一流的在線水質測試解決方案，可幫助經銷商提供卓越的水化學性能並推動我們自有品牌化學品牌的銷售。

Our strong balance sheet has gotten even stronger as we have generated over $377 million of cash from operations, paid down debt, reduced inventory while providing best-in-class service. As in past recessionary period, we get stronger and we'll exit this cycle stronger than ever. When I step back and look at the revised earnings outlook that we reported this morning and put it in context to historical results, not just 2022, I'm proud of how the team is performing and all that we have accomplished.

我們強大的資產負債表變得更加強勁，我們通過運營產生了超過 3.77 億美元的現金，償還了債務，減少了庫存，同時提供了一流的服務。與過去的經濟衰退時期一樣，我們變得更強大，並且我們將比以往任何時候都更強大地退出這個週期。當我退後一步，審視我們今天早上報告的修訂後的盈利前景，並將其與歷史業績（而不僅僅是 2022 年）聯繫起來時，我為團隊的表現以及我們所取得的一切成就感到自豪。

Our market share is improving. The team is more focused than ever on providing best-in-class service. Of course, we are disappointed to report a year-over-year decrease in sales. But when you put things in perspective in this environment, we have achieved a 93% growth in sales and EPS growth of almost 200% from 2019 to 2022.

我們的市場份額正在提高。該團隊比以往任何時候都更加專注於提供一流的服務。當然，我們對銷售額同比下降感到失望。但在這種環境下，我們的銷售額增長了 93%，每股收益增長了近 200%，從 2019 年到 2022 年。

Our North American market has been expanded by over 311,000 new pools built in the last 3 years. Over 30% product inflation has passed through the channel, market growth from new products, strategic acquisitions, continued market share gains and consistent renovation and remodel activity of the aging installed base all gives us confidence in the future.

我們的北美市場在過去 3 年里新建了 311,000 多個泳池，從而得到了擴展。超過30%的產品通脹已經通過這個渠道，新產品帶來的市場增長、戰略收購、持續的市場份額增長以及對老化安裝基礎的持續翻新和改造活動都讓我們對未來充滿信心。

Our size, scale and unmatched experience in the industry allows us to excel in each of these areas and outperform the competition because we have the broadest footprint, the best talent in the industry and the swiftest access to capital, allowing us to prudently and responsibly invest during all business cycles.

我們的規模、行業規模和無與倫比的經驗使我們能夠在各個領域表現出色並超越競爭對手，因為我們擁有行業最廣泛的足跡、最優秀的人才以及最快捷的資本獲取渠道，使我們能夠審慎、負責任地進行投資在所有經濟周期中。

Even with these negative impacts, our second quarter 2023 sales of $1.9 billion exceeded 2021 second quarter sales by $70 million or 4%. As adverse weather carried over into April then varied in impact by geography for the rest of the quarter, the negative trend on top line moderated in the second quarter to minus 10% compared to the first quarter, where sales declined 15%.

即使存在這些負面影響，我們 2023 年第二季度的銷售額仍達到 19 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度的銷售額高出 7000 萬美元，即 4%。由於惡劣天氣持續到 4 月份，然後該季度剩餘時間因地理位置的影響而有所不同，因此與第一季度相比，第二季度的負面趨勢緩和至負 10%，第一季度銷售額下降了 15%。

When we look at our year-round base business market, the impacts of varying weather patterns are apparent. For the second quarter, we saw California sales decline 8%, which is a sequential improvement when compared to the weather driven down 24% that we saw in the first quarter. For reference, California sales increased 9% in the second quarter of 2022 and 33% in the second quarter of 2021.

當我們審視全年的基礎業務市場時，不同天氣模式的影響是顯而易見的。第二季度，加州的銷售額下降了 8%，與第一季度天氣因素導致的銷售額下降 24% 相比，這是一個環比的改善。作為參考，加州的銷售額在 2022 年第二季度增長了 9%，在 2021 年第二季度增長了 33%。

Moving to Arizona. Sales declined 7%, which again is a significant improvement over the 14% decline that we saw in the first quarter. For historical context, sales in the second quarter of 2022 and 2021 were up 20% and 24%, respectively, in Arizona.

搬到亞利桑那州。銷售額下降 7%，與第一季度 14% 的下降相比，有了顯著改善。從歷史數據來看，亞利桑那州 2022 年第二季度和 2021 年第二季度的銷售額分別增長了 20% 和 24%。

Texas experienced cooler temperatures throughout the second quarter and significant precipitation in May, resulting in a 13% decrease over last year and trending down from the 6% first quarter decrease. For perspective, sales in Texas increased 17% in the second quarter of 2022 and 30% in the second quarter of 2021.

得克薩斯州第二季度氣溫較低，5 月份降水量較大，導致降水量較去年下降 13%，較第一季度下降 6% 呈下降趨勢。從長遠來看，德克薩斯州的銷售額在 2022 年第二季度增長了 17%，在 2021 年第二季度增長了 30%。

Florida sales decreased 7% over last year, where for the quarter, we observed typical weather for this time of year other than a wetter June. You will remember that Florida sales was up 7% in the first quarter, bringing the year-to-date number to essentially flat. We have seen a slowdown in Florida new construction, but we must keep in mind that Florida experienced a 23% and 35% growth for the second quarter of 2022 and 2021, respectively, so it remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

佛羅里達州的銷售額比去年下降了 7%，在本季度，我們觀察到除 6 月較為潮濕之外的每年這個時候的典型天氣。您會記得，佛羅里達州第一季度的銷售額增長了 7%，使年初至今的數字基本持平。我們看到佛羅里達州新建工程放緩，但我們必須記住，佛羅里達州在 2022 年第二季度和 2021 年分別增長了 23% 和 35%，因此仍顯著高於大流行前的水平。

Turning to our seasonal markets. Our sales declined 11% in the second quarter, in contrast to the 23% decrease we experienced in the first quarter. Although we observed some improvement as the ground began to thaw, key areas such as Canada, the Northeast and Midwest still experienced temperatures below swimming standards through June. Sales in our seasonal markets grew 5% and 32% in the second quarter of 2022 and 2021, respectively.

轉向我們的季節性市場。第二季度我們的銷售額下降了 11%，而第一季度的銷售額下降了 23%。儘管隨著地面開始解凍，我們發現情況有所改善，但整個六月，加拿大、東北部和中西部等關鍵地區的氣溫仍然低於游泳標準。 2022 年第二季度和 2021 年第二季度我們季節性市場的銷售額分別增長了 5% 和 32%。

Pricing on equipment continues to hold with overall sales down 8% for the quarter and less unfavorable than the declines in new construction. Chemical sales in the quarter were down 3%, driven by the weather patterns I discussed earlier and trichlor pricing came down more than we saw in the first quarter, resulting in a 1% drag on consolidated sales for the quarter.

設備定價繼續保持不變，本季度整體銷售額下降 8%，且不如新建築銷量下降的情況那麼不利。由於我之前討論過的天氣模式，本季度的化學品銷售額下降了 3%，而且三氯價格的下降幅度比我們第一季度看到的還要大，導致本季度的綜合銷售額下降了 1%。

Building material sales for the quarter were down 8%, continuing to indicate renovation and remodel numbers are faring somewhat better than anticipated despite the lower new pool construction. As consumers take advantage of leisure travel, our commercial swimming pool sales continued to see an uptick, with net sales for the quarter increasing 8% following a 12% increase in the first quarter over last year.

本季度建築材料銷售額下降 8%，繼續表明儘管新泳池建設量較低，但翻新和改建數量仍略好於預期。隨著消費者享受休閒旅遊，我們的商業游泳池銷售額持續上升，本季度淨銷售額較去年第一季度增長 12%，增長 8%。

Pinch A Penny franchisees collectively reported relatively flat sales for the quarter compared to last year. The franchisees have seen overall impact from less sales of discretionary items such as equipment and recreational items, but nondiscretionary sales are steady. Sales to our independent retail customers were up 11%, an improvement over the 16% decrease that we saw in the first quarter.

Pinch A Penny 特許經營商報告稱，該季度的銷售額與去年相比相對持平。特許經營商看到了設備和娛樂用品等非必需品銷售減少的總體影響，但非非必需品銷售保持穩定。我們獨立零售客戶的銷售額增長了 11%，比第一季度下降 16% 有所改善。

Europe's second quarter sales remained challenged and were down 6% compared to the prior year, but also saw a seasonal increase in trend improvement from the 25% decrease they recorded in the first quarter. In the Horizon business, base business sales were flat for the quarter, an improvement over the 7% decrease we reported in the first quarter. Our irrigation and product category, a strength for us, performed well, particularly boosted by commercial projects but growth was offset by some pricing pressures on commodities, which have seen higher levels of inflation over the last couple of years.

歐洲第二季度的銷售額仍然面臨挑戰，與去年同期相比下降了 6%，但與第一季度 25% 的下降相比，趨勢有所改善，出現季節性增長。在 Horizo​​n 業務中，本季度基礎業務銷售額持平，比我們第一季度報告的 7% 下降有所改善。我們的灌溉和產品類別是我們的優勢，表現良好，特別是在商業項目的推動下，但增長被商品的一些定價壓力所抵消，這些商品在過去幾年中通脹水平較高。

POOL360, our B2B tool, saw sales increased 3% over prior years, which continued to be better than total sales activity. Line volume growth for the same period was 4%, which indicates an accelerating adoption rate as our customers find value in the tool. We are encouraged by the resiliency of our gross margins, which came in at 30.6% in the quarter where competition has increased due to softer new pool construction and current market conditions. Melanie will provide more detail on this topic in her comments.

我們的 B2B 工具 POOL360 的銷售額比往年增長了 3%，繼續好於總銷售活動。同期線路數量增長了 4%，這表明隨著我們的客戶發現該工具的價值，採用率正在加快。我們對毛利率的彈性感到鼓舞，本季度毛利率為 30.6%，由於新池建設疲軟和當前市場狀況，競爭加劇。梅蘭妮將在她的評論中提供有關此主題的更多詳細信息。

During the quarter, our operating expenses were 13% of net sales, an improvement over the 18.6% of net sales we reported in the first quarter. We saw good leverage on our fixed expenses and continue to add new sales centers, opening 3 during the quarter to expand our market presence. We also continue to invest in and expand our employer of choice initiatives and customer-facing programs to ensure we can expand our service offering to our customers.

本季度，我們的運營費用占淨銷售額的 13%，比第一季度報告的淨銷售額的 18.6% 有所改善。我們看到了固定費用的良好槓桿作用，並繼續增加新的銷售中心，本季度開設了 3 個銷售中心，以擴大我們的市場份額。我們還繼續投資和擴大我們的首選雇主計劃和麵向客戶的計劃，以確保我們能夠擴大為客戶提供的服務範圍。

Operating income for the second quarter of 2023 was $327 million, down $92 million compared to last year, an almost 90% increase over 2019. With our reported operating margins of 17.6%, you can see that we've held on to the majority of the benefits we realized as the business rapidly grew over the last 3 years due to our disciplined execution.

2023 年第二季度的營業收入為 3.27 億美元，比去年減少 9200 萬美元，比 2019 年增長近 90%。根據我們報告的營業利潤率為 17.6%，您可以看到我們保留了大部分由於我們嚴格的執行力，我們在過去三年中隨著業務的快速增長而實現了效益。

During the second quarter, we added 5 new locations, 2 acquired and 3 greenfield. This puts us at 8 new greenfield distribution locations to date, keeping us on track to open around 10 for the full year. We also expanded our Pinch A Penny franchise network by adding 4 new franchise customers in the quarter. We continue to invest in the future of the business as we expect to return to steady historical growth after lapping the swift ramp that we have seen over the last several years.

第二季度，我們增加了 5 個新地點，其中 2 個是收購的，3 個是新建的。迄今為止，我們已新增 8 個全新分銷地點，全年有望開設約 10 個分銷地點。我們還通過在本季度增加 4 個新的特許經營客戶來擴大我們的 Pinch A Penny 特許經營網絡。我們將繼續投資於業務的未來，因為我們預計在經歷過去幾年的快速增長後，將恢復穩定的歷史增長。

Last quarter, we began to experience the impact of weather, heightened interest rates, lower consumer spending and the end of COVID tailwinds. As part of our full year expectations, we believe we can see new pool construction down 30% with around 70,000 new pools being added to the installed base in 2023.

上個季度，我們開始經歷天氣、利率上升、消費者支出下降和新冠疫情結束的影響。作為我們全年預期的一部分，我們相信新泳池建設量將下降 30%，到 2023 年安裝基數將增加約 70,000 個新泳池。

We expect some increases in the average spend on new pools built this year as lower-priced pools are experiencing stiffer headwinds than higher-priced units that typically are less dependent on financing. Our product offering continues to expand and we are adding additional capabilities to our sales centers.

我們預計今年新建泳池的平均支出將有所增加，因為價格較低的泳池比通常不太依賴融資的價格較高的泳池面臨更嚴峻的阻力。我們的產品供應不斷擴大，並且我們正在為我們的銷售中心增加更多功能。

Similarly, on remodel and renovation activities in a typical year, we would see around 10% or 550,000 pools, upgrading their pad equipment and taking advantage of new automation, more efficient pumps, alternative sanitizers, all of which increase the ease of pool ownership. Renovation and remodel activities often involve changing the look of the pool in the backyard using our proprietary tile, pool finish and deck material selections.

同樣，在典型年份的改建和翻新活動中，我們會看到大約 10% 或 550,000 個泳池升級其護墊設備，並利用新的自動化、更高效的泵、替代消毒劑，所有這些都增加了泳池擁有的便利性。翻新和改造活動通常涉及使用我們專有的瓷磚、泳池飾面和甲板材料選擇來改變後院泳池的外觀。

The owners of the 5.4 million in-ground pools are continuing to spend approximately $1,000 or more on pool maintenance annually, although some may choose to defer installation to more discretionary items in times of economic stress. Chemical and minor repairs will continue on these bodies of waters along with the above-ground pools and spas that also saw accelerated growth over the last few years.

540 萬個地下泳池的所有者每年繼續在泳池維護上花費約 1,000 美元或更多，儘管有些人可能會在經濟困難時期選擇推遲安裝更多可自由支配的項目。這些水域以及地上水池和水療中心將繼續進行化學和小型修復，這些水池和水療中心在過去幾年中也加速增長。

While we are expecting a decline in sales in the current year mostly due to tough comps, we are comparing against on a year-over-year basis, the long-term outlook of the industry as a whole remains strong. The installed base is bigger than 2019 and continues to grow. Equipment and most all other product inflation is holding and continues to buoy the top line.

雖然我們預計今年的銷售額下降主要是由於嚴峻的競爭，但我們與去年同期進行比較，但整個行業的長期前景仍然強勁。安裝基數比 2019 年更大，並且還在持續增長。設備和大多數其他產品的通貨膨脹率保持不變，並繼續提振收入。

As I mentioned earlier, some trichlor pricing is under pressure as supply conditions have returned to historical normal levels following a period of significant supply disruptions, but this is largely being offset by inflation of other chemicals. Looking ahead, we expect these dynamics to stabilize and reflect consistent pricing characteristics. Everything that we love about this industry and our numerous competitive advantages, are every bit as true today as they were in the past and give us great confidence in the future.

正如我之前提到的，一些三氯價格面臨壓力，因為在一段時期的嚴重供應中斷之後，供應狀況已恢復到歷史正常水平，但這在很大程度上被其他化學品的通脹所抵消。展望未來，我們預計這些動態將穩定並反映一致的定價特徵。我們熱愛這個行業的一切以及我們眾多的競爭優勢，在今天和過去一樣真實，讓我們對未來充滿信心。

Lastly, with almost 7 months of the year behind us, providing an even clearer picture, we have adjusted our full year guidance for 2023 to $13.14 to $14.14, delivering solid teens EPS in the face of unfavorable weather. Early on, macroeconomic headwinds, higher interest rates and market normalization showed the cumulative benefit from exceptional execution by a very dedicated and talented team. Melanie will now provide additional comments in her financial commentary.

最後，在一年過去了近 7 個月的情況下，為了提供更清晰的前景，我們將 2023 年全年指導調整為 13.14 美元至 14.14 美元，在不利天氣的情況下實現了穩定的青少年每股收益。早期，宏觀經濟逆風、利率上升和市場正常化表明，一支非常敬業且才華橫溢的團隊的卓越執行所帶來的累積效益。梅蘭妮現在將在她的財務評論中提供更多評論。

Thank you, Pete, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we reported $1.9 billion in net sales for the second quarter of 2023. This was the second best top line in history after the exceptionally strong results we generated in 2022.

謝謝你，皮特，大家早上好。今天早上，我們公佈了 2023 年第二季度的淨銷售額 19 億美元。這是繼 2022 年異常強勁的業績之後歷史上第二好的營收。

Inflation in the quarter was approximately 3% to 4%, slightly higher for equipment products and a marginal overall pricing benefit from chemicals. We saw some pressure on trichlor prices in the quarter, offset by inflation in other chemical products. The pricing impact of trichlor was around a 1% drag on net sales for the quarter.

本季度的通貨膨脹率約為 3% 至 4%，設備產品的通貨膨脹率略高，化學品的整體定價略有優勢。我們看到本季度三氯價格面臨一些壓力，但被其他化工產品的通脹所抵消。三氯的定價影響對該季度的淨銷售額造成約 1% 的拖累。

As we had anticipated, gross margin of 30.6% saw 180 basis point decline compared to second quarter 2022. The benefit from lower cost inventory on hand have largely been sold through and contributed nominally to the second quarter gross margin. Current gross margin primarily reflects replacement costs and the seasonal benefit we would typically expect to see in the second quarter. Gross margin was somewhat negatively impacted by sales concession activity in our response to competitors reacting to the slower start to the season.

正如我們預期的那樣，與 2022 年第二季度相比，毛利率為 30.6%，下降了 180 個基點。現有庫存成本較低所帶來的好處大部分已售出，並在名義上為第二季度的毛利率做出了貢獻。目前的毛利率主要反映了重置成本和我們通常預期在第二季度看到的季節性收益。毛利率受到銷售特許活動的一定程度的負面影響，這是為了應對競爭對手對本季開局較慢的反應。

Operating expenses declined by 3% year-over-year in the quarter. SG&A costs as a percentage of net sales was 13% for the quarter, significantly better than the 18.6% we reported in first quarter, as we realized improved expense leverage on our fixed costs in the higher sales quarter.

本季度運營費用同比下降 3%。本季度 SG&A 成本占淨銷售額的百分比為 13%，明顯好於我們第一季度報告的 18.6%，因為我們意識到在較高銷售季度固定成本的費用槓桿有所改善。

Our field teams did an excellent job in managing through the seasonal expense growth between the first quarter and the second quarter. Last year, we increased expenses by $36 million from first quarter to second quarter, and we were able to moderate that to only $17 million in the current quarter compared to Q1.

我們的現場團隊在管理第一季度和第二季度之間的季節性費用增長方面做得非常出色。去年，我們從第一季度到第二季度增加了 3600 萬美元的支出，與第一季度相比，我們在本季度將支出減少到僅 1700 萬美元。

We remain focused on compensation and freight-related variable expenses, while continuing our investments in new locations and tools and technology to support our long-term growth. The 13 new locations opened since June 2022 added incremental expenses and were a moderate drag on operating income.

我們仍然專注於薪酬和與貨運相關的可變費用，同時繼續對新地點、工具和技術進行投資，以支持我們的長期增長。自 2022 年 6 月以來開設的 13 個新店增加了增量支出，對營業收入產生了適度的拖累。

We completed 3 acquisitions year-to-date, each providing unique strategic benefits and once folded into the network, will contribute profitable growth going forward. Together, these added less than 1% to net sales for the quarter. So for us, it was not significant to break out separately in the press release.

今年迄今為止，我們完成了 3 項收購，每項收購都提供了獨特的戰略優勢，一旦納入網絡，將貢獻未來的盈利增長。這些合計為本季度淨銷售額增加了不到 1%。所以對於我們來說，在新聞稿中單獨爆發並沒有什麼意義。

Our second quarter operating margin was 17.6% versus 20.4% last year, but continues to be above the 15.4% in 2019. Looking back to 2019, we ended the year with a 10.7% full year operating margin. That expanded almost 600 basis points to 16.6% for the full year 2022 as we realize benefits of around 150 basis points from inflation-driven price increases and inventory gains that have now largely normalized.

我們第二季度的營業利潤率為 17.6%，而去年為 20.4%，但繼續高於 2019 年的 15.4%。回顧 2019 年，我們全年營業利潤率為 10.7%。 2022 年全年，這一數字增長了近 600 個基點，達到 16.6%，因為我們意識到通脹驅動的價格上漲和庫存增長帶來了約 150 個基點的收益，而這些收益目前已基本正常化。

We are experiencing some pullback in our operating margin from last year, but we believe the margins we will achieve in 2023 well above the pre-pandemic levels are setting a good baseline and will be sustainable as we hold on to the 30% to 35% industry growth from inflation, combined with our strategically beneficial acquisitions, increased scale, product expansions and improved operating efficiencies.

與去年相比，我們的營業利潤率出現了一些回落，但我們相信，我們將在 2023 年實現的利潤率遠高於大流行前的水平，這正在設定一個良好的基準，並且隨著我們保持在 30% 至 35% 的水平，這將是可持續的通貨膨脹帶來的行業增長，加上我們具有戰略意義的收購、規模擴大、產品擴展和運營效率提高。

We reported diluted EPS, excluding ASU of $5.89 compared to $7.59 in second quarter 2022. While 22% below last year, this is comparable to 2021 second quarter EPS and is 94% higher than the $3.03 excluding ASU we reported in second quarter 2019. Many changes have affected our historically stable and growing industry since then, which bring positive opportunities for our future growth and profitability. Receivables continue to be well managed. Days sales outstanding was 26.2 days compared to prior year of 27.2. We have made excellent progress on rightsizing our inventory by vendor and by location now that supply chains have normalized.

我們報告的稀釋後每股收益（不包括 ASU）為 5.89 美元，而 2022 年第二季度為 7.59 美元。雖然比去年低 22%，但這與 2021 年第二季度每股收益相當，比我們在 2019 年第二季度報告的不包括 ASU 的 3.03 美元高出 94%。此後的變化影響了我們歷史上穩定且不斷增長的行業，這為我們未來的增長和盈利帶來了積極的機會。應收賬款繼續得到良好管理。銷售應收天數為 26.2 天，而上年為 27.2 天。既然供應鏈已經正常化，我們在按供應商和地點調整庫存方面取得了巨大進展。

One of the metrics we monitor to ensure a great customer experience and analyze for lost sales opportunities continue to trend well. We have reduced inventory year-over-year by $186 million against the $260 million inventory reduction we estimated at year-end. We are continuing to aim toward the end of the season or end of third quarter to achieve these inventory levels.

我們為了確保良好的客戶體驗並分析失去的銷售機會而監控的指標之一繼續保持良好的趨勢。我們的庫存同比減少了 1.86 億美元，而我們年底估計庫存減少了 2.6 億美元。我們繼續致力於在本季末或第三季度末達到這些庫存水平。

As we accomplish this, we will be uniquely positioned to work with our channel partners on early buys to best position us for the 2024 season. With acquisitions, new locations and expanded product line offerings at many of our sales centers, our capabilities in managing market capital is another indicator of our focus on capacity creation and the value we continue to provide to our customers while generating strong returns for our shareholders.

當我們實現這一目標時，我們將處於獨特的地位，能夠與我們的渠道合作夥伴合作進行早期購買，以便為 2024 年季節做好準備。通過在許多銷售中心進行收購、開設新地點和擴大產品線，我們管理市場資本的能力是我們注重產能創造和繼續為客戶提供價值的另一個指標，同時為股東創造豐厚的回報。

We reduced debt outstanding by $411 million from June of 2022. And although we had lower average debt outstanding during the quarter, an increase in our average interest rate resulted in a rise of $8 million in our quarterly interest expense. Cash flow from operating activities was $377 million, an increase of $348 million compared to last year, as strong earnings and working capital reductions contributed to increased cash flow.

自 2022 年 6 月起，我們的未償債務減少了 4.11 億美元。儘管本季度的平均未償債務較低，但平均利率的上升導致季度利息支出增加了 800 萬美元。經營活動產生的現金流量為 3.77 億美元，比去年增加 3.48 億美元，這是由於強勁的盈利和營運資本減少導致現金流量增加。

We have completed $44 million of share buybacks in the open market during the first half. Our Board increased our authorization under our share repurchase program to $600 million during the quarter. Our full year cash flows are expected to be around $800 million, benefiting from cash generated due to reductions in inventory. From a timing standpoint, our cash flow is strongest in the second half of the year after building preseason inventory in first quarter and paying for early buy inventory purchases in the second quarter.

上半年，我們在公開市場完成了 4400 萬美元的股票回購。本季度，我們的董事會將股票回購計劃的授權增加至 6 億美元。我們的全年現金流預計約為 8 億美元，受益於庫存減少產生的現金。從時間角度來看，在第一季度建立季前庫存並在第二季度支付早期購買庫存後，我們的現金流在下半年最為強勁。

Moving to our outlook. For the full year, we expect sales compared to 2022 to be down in the range of negative 10%. We're down 12% through the first half with a 15% year-over-year decrease in Q1 and a 10% decline in Q2. Last year for base business, we realized a 10% increase in Q3, which was the same as Q2 and a 1% growth in fourth quarter. We will have 1 less selling day in the third quarter and for the full year, which we typically add or subtract around 1% to 2% for the quarter.

轉向我們的展望。就全年而言，我們預計銷售額與 2022 年相比將下降 10% 的範圍內。上半年我們的業績下降了 12%，其中第一季度同比下降 15%，第二季度同比下降 10%。去年基礎業務方面，我們第三季度實現了10%的增長，與第二季度持平，第四季度實現了1%的增長。我們將在第三季度和全年減少 1 個銷售日，我們通常會在該季度增加或減少 1% 至 2% 左右。

Gross margin is expected to return to seasonally normalized level in the second half of the year as inventory gain benefits have now fully passed through. As we have stated previously, we expect full year 2023 gross margins to be around 30%.

由於庫存收益收益現已完全傳遞，毛利率預計將在下半年恢復到季節性正常水平。正如我們之前所說，我們預計 2023 年全年毛利率將在 30% 左右。

Operating expense growth moderated in the second quarter for year-to-date growth over prior year of 1% and will continue to be well managed for the full year. With continued investments in the business, we will maintain certain core expenses and limit full year base business expense growth to 1%. This will have us well positioned for when top line growth returns.

第二季度運營費用增長放緩，年初至今較上年增長 1%，全年將繼續得到良好管理。隨著業務的持續投資，我們將維持一定的核心費用，並將全年基本業務費用增長限制在 1% 以內。這將使我們在營收增長恢復時處於有利地位。

When we look at potential uses for the increased cash flows we expect to generate this year, we anticipate spending around $25 million to $50 million on acquisitions, $50 million to $60 million on capital expenditures, $170 million on cash dividends and the remaining approximately $550 million on a combination of debt reductions and share buybacks.

當我們考慮今年預計產生的增加現金流的潛在用途時，我們預計將支出約 2500 萬至 5000 萬美元用於收購，5000 萬至 6000 萬美元用於資本支出，1.7 億美元用於現金股息，其餘約 5.5 億美元債務削減和股票回購相結合。

We continue to maintain our leverage ratio at the low end of our target rate of 1.5 to 2x with the mix of floating and fixed-rate debt, reflecting a strong and flexible financial position to take advantage of future growth opportunities. Interest expense for the full year is expected to be between $55 million and $62 million, including slightly higher interest rates in the second half.

我們繼續將槓桿率維持在 1.5 至 2 倍目標利率的低端，並採用浮動利率和固定利率債務，反映出我們擁有強大而靈活的財務狀況，可以充分利用未來的增長機會。全年利息支出預計在5500萬至6200萬美元之間，其中下半年利率略有上升。

Our annual tax rate should be in line with last year's tax rate of 25.2%, excluding ASU. We expect the third quarter rate to be slightly lower than the annual rate. Our Board increased the quarterly dividend payout by 10% this quarter, increasing the quarterly dividend to $1.10. We expect to pay full year 2023 dividends of around $170 million, more than double the $84 million paid to shareholders in 2019.

我們的年稅率應該與去年25.2%的稅率一致，不包括ASU。我們預計第三季度增長率將略低於年率。我們的董事會本季度將季度股息支付增加了 10%，將季度股息增加至 1.10 美元。我們預計將支付 2023 年全年股息約 1.7 億美元，是 2019 年支付給股東的 8400 萬美元的兩倍多。

As Pete commented earlier, we have updated the range for our EPS guidance for the full year 2023 to $13.14 to $14.14, which includes the $0.14 ASU tax benefit realized to date. This assumes a share count of 39.4 million shares consistent with June 30. We based our guidance on the assumption of normal historical weather conditions as the midpoint.

正如皮特之前評論的那樣，我們已將 2023 年全年 EPS 指導範圍更新為 13.14 美元至 14.14 美元，其中包括迄今為止實現的 0.14 美元 ASU 稅收優惠。假設 6 月 30 日的股數為 3,940 萬股。我們的指導基於以正常歷史天氣條件為中點的假設。

We issued our second annual corporate responsibility report during the quarter. We are proud to have expanded our disclosures in the areas that we are focused on and as part of our capacity creation efforts. These initiatives and activities are paying off through more efficient water usage and the benchmarking of our electricity usage in our continued efforts to lower our overall emissions.

我們在本季度發布了第二份年度企業責任報告。我們很自豪能夠在我們關注的領域擴大我們的披露範圍，並將其作為我們能力建設工作的一部分。這些舉措和活動通過提高用水效率和用電量基準來持續努力降低總體排放量而取得了回報。

Our results for the second quarter, while somewhat less favorable than we had hoped, through the resilience of our industry and the sustainability of much of the pricing and market growth components we realized over the 2019 to 2022 period prior to this period of market stabilization. Our financial position is strong, and we are well situated to support the return of industry growth.

我們第二季度的業績雖然比我們預期的要差一些，但我們在市場穩定之前的 2019 年至 2022 年期間實現了行業的彈性以及定價和市場增長部分的可持續性。我們的財務狀況強勁，並且有能力支持行業增長的回歸。

I will now turn the call over to begin our Q&A session.

我現在將轉接電話並開始我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ryan Merkel of William Blair.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的瑞安·默克爾。

I wanted to start off with a question I'm getting from clients this morning, which is how can we be comfortable that this is the last cut to guidance. So Pete, maybe just walk us through how you approach guidance, what's changed and why you're comfortable that the new guidance range is achievable?

我想從今天早上從客戶那裡得到的一個問題開始，那就是我們如何才能放心地接受這是最後一次指導意見的削減。那麼皮特，也許請向我們介紹一下您如何對待指導、發生了什麼變化以及為什麼您對新指導範圍的實現感到滿意？

Sure. That's a good question, Ryan, and we spent considerable time on it. I guess the difference between now and when we guidance out at the end of the last quarter is that we have passed the most seasonally significant part of the year, and we're 3 weeks through the month of -- almost 3 weeks through the month of July, which gives us much better visibility into how the year is going to trend. So nothing new to report on new pool construction.

當然。這是一個很好的問題，瑞安，我們在這個問題上花了相當多的時間。我想現在和我們在上季度末發布指導時的區別在於，我們已經度過了一年中季節性最重要的部分，而且我們這個月已經過去了三週——幾乎整個月已經過去了三週七月，這讓我們更好地了解今年的趨勢。因此，關於新水池建設沒有什麼新的報導。

We had said last time we thought new pool construction was going to be up 30%. We still think it's going to be often in neighborhood of 30%, skewed more heavily towards the lower-priced pools with higher-priced pools doing better. Our ability to gain share as evidenced by our analysis of our new pool sales is consistent with what we thought before. So we're down slightly less than the industry as we believe in new terms of new pool construction, so nothing new to report.

上次我們曾說過，我們認為新泳池建設將會增長 30%。我們仍然認為它通常會在 30% 左右，更傾向於價格較低的礦池，而價格較高的礦池表現更好。我們對新池銷售的分析證明了我們獲得份額的能力與我們之前的想法一致。因此，我們的跌幅略低於行業，因為我們相信新泳池建設的新條款，所以沒有什麼新的報告。

The weather provided significant headwinds in the second quarter. The season started late. And as you know, we basically contemplate normal weather in our guidance. We didn't get the normal weather that we were counting on and the seasonal markets opened late. And then, frankly, the poor weather moved around some of the year-round markets too and presented significant headwind.

天氣給第二季度帶來了重大阻力。這個季節開始得很晚。如您所知，我們在指導中基本上考慮的是正常天氣。我們沒有得到我們所指望的正常天氣，季節性市場開盤很晚。然後，坦率地說，惡劣的天氣也影響了一些全年市場，並帶來了巨大的阻力。

The other thing that we saw and we have better visibility to now is the consumer buying patterns and what we see there. We are -- the nondiscretionary spend is good. I mean we talked a little about the spend on chemicals with the pricing on chemicals that trichlor is down, everything else is up a little, it's about the same.

我們看到的另一件事是消費者的購買模式以及我們所看到的，現在我們已經有了更好的了解。我們——非可自由支配的支出是好的。我的意思是，我們討論了化學品的支出，三氯化學品的價格下降了，其他一切都上漲了一點，大致相同。

Chemical sales are going to be higher when the weather is hotter. So the hotter water and hotter weather came later than anticipated. We are now getting good weather in terms of heat and that's having an impact on the chemical spend. So the nondiscretionary portion of our business is doing well.

當天氣更熱時，化學品銷量將會更高。因此，更熱的水和更熱的天氣來得比預期要晚。我們現在天氣炎熱，這對化學品支出產生了影響。因此，我們業務的非全權委託部分錶現良好。

What we've seen is that a continuation really of the, we'll call semi-discretionary purchases by consumers, so the consumer that has a heater that may need to be repaired. Well, this time of the year, nobody is thinking about heating their pools because most of them are too hot as it is. But those that would consider buying a new cleaner given the current economic environment, we're -- what we're seeing is some people deferring some of those expenses to next year and not doing -- not making the purchase this year.

我們所看到的是，這種情況的延續，我們稱之為消費者的半自由裁量購買，因此擁有可能需要維修的加熱器的消費者。嗯，每年的這個時候，沒有人考慮加熱他們的游泳池，因為大多數游泳池都太熱了。但考慮到當前的經濟環境，那些考慮購買新清潔劑的人，我們看到有些人將其中一些費用推遲到明年，但今年沒有購買。

So we've got 6.5 months, almost 7 months of visibility into the year. So we have a better view of what the consumer buying pattern is, and the idea that we think it would significantly improve over what we have seen based on the macroeconomic conditions and the weather pattern, we baked into our guidance.

所以我們今年還有 6.5 個月，差不多 7 個月的時間。因此，我們對消費者的購買模式有了更好的了解，並且我們認為，根據宏觀經濟條件和天氣模式，我們認為這種模式將顯著改善，並將其納入我們的指導中。

The only thing I didn't touch upon in my commentary just now is the renovation and remodel market. And as I said, the renovation and remodel market is doing better than what we see in new construction. If you look at I mentioned our building materials being off 2 products to consider when we look at new pool construction and renovation and remodel would be tile and pool finish.

我剛才的評論中唯一沒有提到的是裝修市場。正如我所說，翻新和改建市場的表現比我們在新建建築中看到的要好。如果你看我提到的我們的建築材料，當我們考慮新的泳池建設和翻新和改造時，需要考慮兩種產品，即瓷磚和泳池飾面。

Pool finish is down 2% for the year and tile is down 9% for the year. We think that the backlog on renovation was higher in the beginning of the year, and we expect that to moderate. So we think it was more favorable than the full year -- our full year outlook at the beginning of the year, but we think that's going to moderate as dealers work through the backlog.

泳池飾面同比下降 2%，瓷磚同比下降 9%。我們認為年初裝修積壓情況較多，預計這種情況會有所緩解。因此，我們認為這比全年——我們年初的全年展望——更有利，但我們認為，隨著經銷商處理積壓訂單，情況將會有所緩和。

We consider normal weather for the balance of the year, so we're not counting on an extended season. And I think we've captured most of our possibilities in terms of market demand, pricing considerations, supply chain interruptions within our guidance. So I just think we have more clarity now with a large portion of the year behind us and a good look at what July is going to bring.

我們認為一年中剩餘時間天氣正常，因此我們不指望季節會延長。我認為我們已經在我們的指導範圍內抓住了市場需求、定價考慮、供應鏈中斷方面的大部分可能性。所以我認為我們現在更加清晰了，今年的大部分時間已經過去，並且可以很好地了解七月將帶來什麼。

Got it. That's very helpful. And for my follow-up, I was hoping you could comment on what you're seeing in June and what you're seeing in July. Have you seen trends improve a bit as the weather has got a bit hotter in some of the key pool markets?

知道了。這非常有幫助。對於我的後續行動，我希望您能對六月和七月所看到的情況發表評論。隨著一些主要泳池市場的天氣變得更熱，您是否看到趨勢有所改善？

Yes, certainly. The great part about this business is that most of the spend is nondiscretionary. So when the weather cooperates and it is hot and people are using their pools, then the demand for maintenance items such as chemical and parts and service is good. So when things heated up, we are encouraged by the uptick in sales.

是的，當然了。這項業務的重要之處在於，大部分支出都是非可自由支配的。因此，當天氣適宜且炎熱且人們使用泳池時，對化學品、零件和服務等維護項目的需求就會很好。因此，當事情升溫時，我們會因銷售額的上升而受到鼓舞。

However, one thing I got to point out though is we have very stiff comps in the third quarter, too. The third quarter is by no means a layup given the growth that we saw in the third quarter of last year. The comps really don't moderate until the fourth quarter, so business is good. The sales centers are busy. But when we look at the comps that we have from last year, which was weather was good, sales centers were busy and consumers were certainly a bit more confident and new pool construction was stronger, we have to take that into consideration.

然而，我必須指出的一件事是，我們在第三季度的比賽也非常激烈。考慮到去年第三季度的增長，第三季度絕不是一個停頓。直到第四季度，比較才真正放緩，所以生意很好。銷售中心很忙碌。但當我們看看去年的比較時，天氣很好，銷售中心很忙，消費者肯定更有信心，新泳池建設更強大，我們必須考慮到這一點。

Our next question comes from Susan Maklari of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的蘇珊·馬克拉里（Susan Maklari）。

My first question is, Pete, can you just expand a bit on consumer sentiment? And what you're hearing from some of your larger customers? It sounds like there's, to some extent, a mix shift that's happening with the higher end versus the lower end consumer. Is that fair? And then what do you think it's going to take from a macro perspective to get some of these consumers back into the market on the discretionary or the semi-discretionary side?

我的第一個問題是，皮特，你能稍微談談消費者情緒嗎？您從一些大客戶那裡聽到了什麼？聽起來，在某種程度上，高端消費者與低端消費者正在發生混合轉變。這公平嗎？那麼，您認為從宏觀角度來看，如何才能讓其中一些消費者重新回到可自由支配或半可自由支配的市場呢？

So I think your sentiment on -- your observation on mix shift is accurate. We -- when I talk to our dealers, and I talked to a lot of dealers across the country from very, very large dealers to small dealers, what we're hearing is that at the higher end, and we have some customers that frankly specialize in very large projects, they're actually doing quite well. Believe it or not, I've had a couple tell me that they're sold out for this year and into next year, but they are the very high-end specialty builders.

所以我認為你對混合轉變的看法是準確的。我們——當我與我們的經銷商交談時，我與全國各地的很多經銷商交談，從非常非常大的經銷商到小型經銷商，我們聽到的是高端經銷商，坦率地說，我們有一些客戶專注於非常大的項目，他們實際上做得很好。不管你信不信，有幾個人告訴我，他們今年和明年的房子都賣完了，但他們是非常高端的專業建築商。

As you work down the chain from very high end to more entry-level pools, there is a phenomenon that happens and that is -- has to do with how that pool is paid for. The very high-end pools are typically purchased by more affluent families, and the percentage of those that have really any concern about financing cost is actually very low.

當你沿著鏈條從非常高端的礦池到更入門級的礦池時，會發生一種現象，那就是——與該礦池的支付方式有關。非常高端的泳池通常是由較富裕的家庭購買的，而真正擔心融資成本的比例實際上非常低。

The flip side to that is if you go to the ops end of the spectrum, the entry-level pools, which is what we think drove a lot of the new pool, the increase in new pool activity through the pandemic, there was a lot more entry-level pools built. So I think the mix of pools was skewed towards the entry-level pools. And the reason is because financing cost was actually quite low.

另一方面，如果你去操作端，即入門級礦池，我們認為這推動了很多新礦池的發展，在大流行期間新礦池活動的增加，有很多建造了更多入門級泳池。所以我認為池的組合偏向於入門級池。原因是融資成本其實很低。

And if you talk to the dealers, what they would tell you is that many of those conversations, many of the closes happened at the kitchen table. And they were basically -- they were selling a backyard resort, but they were basically selling that as a monthly payment. And monthly payments when the interest rates and finance rates and HELOCs were very low and lending was free flowing, monthly payments for those projects and the fact that a few years ago you had less inflation so the overall price of the pool was lower, they were selling that based on -- some of those were $700 to $750 a month payment.

如果你與經銷商交談，他們會告訴你，許多對話、許多成交都發生在廚房的餐桌上。他們基本上是在出售一個後院度假村，但他們基本上是以每月付款的方式出售的。當利率、融資利率和 HELOC 非常低並且貸款自由流動時，每月付款，這些項目的每月付款以及幾年前通貨膨脹較少，因此池的總體價格較低的事實，它們是出售該產品的依據是——其中一些每月付款 700 至 750 美元。

That was a very achievable number for folks that wanted a pool and decided to invest and become pool owners. As interest rates have come up, as inflation has worked its way through the system, as labor rates have come up, that same payment, in many cases, dealers are telling me is now $1,200 to $1,400, which simply puts it out of the range for many of the families that would be stretching at, frankly, a $700 to $750 level.

對於那些想要一個泳池並決定投資並成為泳池所有者的人來說，這是一個非常容易實現的數字。隨著利率上升、通貨膨脹在整個系統中蔓延、勞動力價格上升，經銷商告訴我，在很多情況下，同樣的付款現在是 1,200 美元到 1,400 美元，這簡直超出了範圍坦率地說，對於許多家庭來說，這筆費用將達到 700 至 750 美元。

So if you ask me what I think it's going to take to change that, I really think it would be -- it would have to be one of two things or a combination. One is if interest rates were to moderate, it's just math that brings down the price of the financing costs and brings down the monthly payment. That would make pools more affordable for those folks that are sitting on the sidelines waiting for that to happen.

因此，如果你問我需要做什麼才能改變這一點，我真的認為——它必須是兩件事之一或兩者的結合。一是如果利率適度，那麼融資成本的價格和每月還款額的下降只是數學而已。對於那些坐在場邊等待這種情況發生的人們來說，這將使泳池變得更便宜。

The other thing that happens over time is the memory of 2% interest and 3% interest fades in people's mind and they become more accustomed to, "Well, okay, if I'm going to do a HELOC, it's going to cost me 6% or 7% or 8%." And as wages continue to catch up to inflation, then it becomes more acceptable. And I think you'll see some more pools at the entry level start to come back in.

隨著時間的推移，發生的另一件事是 2% 利息和 3% 利息的記憶在人們的腦海中逐漸消失，他們變得更加習慣於，“好吧，好吧，如果我要進行 HELOC，這將花費我 6 美元”。 %或7%或8%。”隨著工資繼續趕上通貨膨脹，它就會變得更容易被接受。我認為您會看到更多入門級泳池開始回歸。

I think your follow-on question was -- or the second part of the question had to do with consumer sentiment. And I think I briefly mentioned that with Ryan's question. What dealers are telling us is that certainly, break/fix things, it is -- if the pump isn't working, if the filter is leaking, if the salt cells stopped working, if in some cases if the light stopped working, it's going to get fixed. Consumers really don't have a choice because remember, with the pool, you have to move the water, filter the water and treat the water in order to make sure that it doesn't turn green. So that's a given.

我認為你的後續問題是——或者問題的第二部分與消費者情緒有關。我想我在瑞安的問題中簡短地提到了這一點。經銷商告訴我們的是，當然，破壞/修理東西，如果泵不工作，如果過濾器洩漏，如果鹽池停止工作，如果在某些情況下如果燈停止工作，那就是會得到修復。消費者確實別無選擇，因為請記住，對於游泳池，您必須移動水、過濾水並處理水，以確保水不會變綠。所以這是給定的。

I think over the last couple of years, we've seen people trade up in terms of technology. They've gone from pressure cleaners and suction cleaners, which were once the industry standard. Now we've seen people move towards the higher-end product, the robotic cleaners and such and higher levels of automation. I think in many of those cases, consumers are saying, "Well, I'd like a new robot." But given the macroeconomic conditions, inflation of everything from groceries, perhaps additional leisure travel being done and general household expense increase, they're saying, "I'll probably going to wait and I'll get the new cleaner next year as opposed to this year and we'll live with the pressure cleaner or suction cleaner 1 more year." So I just think it's a matter of just kind of how the consumer is feeling about everyday spending.

我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們已經看到人們在技術方面進行了升級。它們已經不再是曾經作為行業標準的壓力清潔器和吸塵器。現在我們看到人們轉向更高端的產品、機器人清潔工以及更高水平的自動化。我認為在很多情況下，消費者都會說：“好吧，我想要一個新機器人。”但考慮到宏觀經濟狀況、食品雜貨的通貨膨脹、可能進行的額外休閒旅行以及一般家庭支出的增加，他們說，“我可能會等待，明年我會買新的清潔工，而不是今年，我們將繼續使用高壓清潔器或吸塵器一年。”所以我認為這只是消費者對日常支出的感受問題。

Yes. Okay. That's very helpful color. And then just following up, you mentioned that there was some increased competition earlier in the season as things were slow to get started in some parts of the country. As things have picked up in the summer, are you seeing that, that competition is eased? And how are you thinking about your ability to hold the market share gains that you've realized in the last couple of years against that? And I guess, finally, with that, any thoughts on or updates to your inflation expectations for this year?

是的。好的。這是非常有用的顏色。然後，您提到本賽季早些時候的競爭有所加劇，因為該國某些地區的進展緩慢。隨著夏天情況有所好轉，您是否看到競爭有所緩解？您如何看待自己在過去幾年中保持市場份額增長的能力？我想，最後，您對今年的通脹預期有什麼想法或更新嗎？

Yes. Great question. So there's really nothing new about the competition. If I go back, I've been in the pool industry now, this is my seventh year, I believe. And I can tell you that from the very first -- my very first month when I went out and was meeting the team and trying to learn about the market and what would happen, and I would hear these stories about competitors that would go after a piece of business that we would have or we would hear about hypercompetitive pricing at a particular account or a particular product.

是的。很好的問題。所以競爭確實沒有什麼新鮮事。如果我回去的話，我現在已經進入泳池行業了，我相信這是我的第七年了。我可以告訴你，從一開始——我出去的第一個月，我就出去與團隊會面，試圖了解市場和會發生什麼，我會聽到這些關於競爭對手的故事，他們會追隨我們將擁有的一項業務，或者我們將聽到有關特定帳戶或特定產品的超競爭定價的信息。

That was basically the norm, all the way up to the pandemic. We kind of got a break during the pandemic when inventory was scarce, and it was more a question of do you have it versus how much is it? So we got a little bit of a reprieve during that period of pandemic spending when people just said, "I want, I want, I want," and those that had it certainly had an advantage. And you know what we did from an investment perspective to make sure that we had product, and that allowed us to take share. It allowed us to gain new customers that in the past might not have had a reason to try us as a supplier, that were perhaps happy with who they were using before that now tried us and got exposure to the vast network and the tools and resources that we offer, which pale in comparison to those of our competitors.

這基本上是常態，一直到大流行。在大流行期間，庫存稀缺，我們得到了休息，更多的問題是你有沒有庫存，而不是有多少？因此，在大流行支出期間，我們得到了一點緩和，當時人們只是說，“我想要，我想要，我想要”，而那些擁有它的人肯定有優勢。你知道我們從投資的角度做了什麼來確保我們擁有產品，這使我們能夠分享份額。它使我們能夠獲得新客戶，這些客戶在過去可能沒有理由嘗試我們作為供應商，他們可能對他們之前使用的客戶感到滿意，現在嘗試我們並接觸到龐大的網絡以及工具和資源我們提供的產品與我們的競爭對手相比相形見絀。

So what I would say is that I still hear stories every day about a competitor that is going after a piece of business or trying to liquidate some inventory or trying to raise some cash putting a ridiculous price into the market. I think it is isolated. I don't think it's anything new, and it's nothing, quite frankly, that we are worried about.

所以我想說的是，我每天仍然聽到有關競爭對手正在追求某項業務或試圖清算一些庫存或試圖籌集一些現金以荒謬的價格進入市場的故事。我認為這是孤立的。我不認為這是什麼新鮮事，坦率地說，我們也沒有什麼擔心的。

When I consider what we've done over the last 3 years to widen the base of our business and improve the quality of our value proposition, I think it gives me great confidence in our ability to maintain the share that we gained and continue to gain. Since 2019, through acquisitions and greenfield openings, we have 59 new locations. So there's 59 more locations today than they were in 2019.

當我考慮過去三年來我們為擴大業務基礎和提高價值主張質量所做的努力時，我認為這讓我對我們保持並繼續獲得份額的能力充滿信心。自 2019 年以來，通過收購和新建門店，我們擁有 59 個新地點。因此，今天的地點比 2019 年多了 59 個。

If you look at our -- what differentiates our network compared to the others, we have about 100 NPT centers, which allow the smaller builders to use our showrooms, to have their customers pick out the finishes for a new pool or a renovation and remodel. We have product trainers that teach new customers, new plaster crews, new tile crews, how to apply and how to install our proprietary products. If you look at our private label capabilities, those that we had before the pandemic and then with the addition of Pinch A Penny and SunCoast chemicals and the fact that we're vertically integrated from a chemical packaging perspective, again, nobody that we compete with on the wholesale distribution side has capabilities like that. We think that gives us flexibility. We think that gives us additional capabilities to serve customers.

如果你看看我們的網絡與其他網絡相比有何不同，我們有大約 100 個 NPT 中心，這些中心允許較小的建築商使用我們的陳列室，讓他們的客戶挑選新游泳池或翻新和改建的飾面。我們有產品培訓師，教授新客戶、新灰泥人員、新瓷磚人員如何應用和安裝我們的專有產品。如果你看看我們的自有品牌能力，那些我們在大流行之前擁有的能力，然後再加上 Pinch A Penny 和 SunCoast 化學品，以及我們從化學品包裝角度垂直整合的事實，再次強調，沒有人可以與我們競爭批發分銷方面有這樣的能力。我們認為這給了我們靈活性。我們認為這賦予了我們服務客戶的額外能力。

Our focus on speed at the counter and the customer experience, our focus on -- we've invested in digital tools in POOL360, as you can see, is gaining traction. The POOL360 water test software that we've begun rolling out as a great tool for the independent retailers to improve their chemical business, which at the same time, will improve our chemical business of our private label chemicals, because that is the chemical solution that the software will recommend and takes that variability out of the dealer's hands in terms of what chemicals to recommend and how much it's all done through a digital platform.

正如您所看到的，我們對櫃檯速度和客戶體驗的關注，我們對 POOL360 數字工具的投資，正在獲得越來越多的關注。我們已經開始推出 POOL360 水質測試軟件，作為獨立零售商改善其化學品業務的一個很好的工具，同時，這也將改善我們自有品牌化學品的化學品業務，因為這是化學解決方案該軟件將推薦並消除經銷商在推薦哪些化學品以及通過數字平台完成多少方面的可變性。

We've invested in marketing capabilities, specific marketing capabilities that help our dealers grow, that help drive demand creation, all things that none of our competitors do. So certainly, the market is -- I don't want to paint a picture that the market is not contested. We have competitors, we have good competitors that are trying to grow just as well as we are. But when I look at the tools and resources that we have including, frankly, the best team in the industry, when you look at the -- how seasoned our management team is and their years of experience and the multiple cycles that they have seen as compared to some of our competitors that are relatively new to the space, I would put our team up against any other team, and they will win that race hands down.

我們投資於營銷能力，特定的營銷能力，幫助我們的經銷商成長，幫助推動需求創造，所有這些都是我們的競爭對手所做不到的。當然，市場是——我不想描繪出市場沒有競爭的景象。我們有競爭對手，我們有優秀的競爭對手，他們正在努力與我們一樣成長。但是，當我看到我們擁有的工具和資源，坦率地說，包括業內最好的團隊時，當你看到我們的管理團隊經驗豐富、他們多年的經驗以及他們認為的多個週期時，與我們的一些在該領域相對較新的競爭對手相比，我會讓我們的團隊與任何其他團隊競爭，他們將輕鬆贏得這場比賽。

Our next question comes from David Manthey from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的大衛·曼蒂 (David Manthey)。

First question, Pete or Melanie, could you estimate the second quarter year-to-year change by new pools renovation and maintenance revenues that you experienced? I know it's not an exact size, but could you give us an idea there? And then also, I don't know if you mentioned price contribution across blue and green, if you could give us that as well.

第一個問題，皮特或梅蘭妮，您能否估計一下您經歷的新泳池翻新和維護收入第二季度的同比變化？我知道這不是確切的尺寸，但是您能給我們一個想法嗎？另外，我不知道您是否提到了藍色和綠色的價格貢獻，是否也可以告訴我們。

Yes. So we are seeing probably an impact in the second quarter on the new pool construction. It was about a negative 5% and the renovation was around a negative 3%. And then price contribution, we are -- on the green side, it's a little bit less than blue. So we said 3 to 4 in total. The green would trend to the lower end of that because they did have some more of the commodity, particularly the piping. That was overall impacting their sales, but their sales for the quarter actually did -- they came in relatively flat.

是的。因此，我們可能會看到第二季度對新泳池建設的影響。大約是負5%，裝修是負3%左右。然後是價格貢獻，我們在綠色方面，比藍色方面要少一些。所以我們總共說3到4個。綠色會趨向於較低端，因為他們確實有更多的商品，特別是管道。這總體上影響了他們的銷售額，但他們本季度的銷售額實際上確實如此——他們的銷售額相對持平。

Your answer to the first question, Melanie, was that -- I'm asking about total revenues.

梅勒妮，你對第一個問題的回答是——我問的是總收入。

Well, I guess -- I thought you were asking for the walk between kind of last year and this year.

嗯，我想——我以為你是在要求在去年和今年之間散步。

Right. You're saying your new pools were down, what, 5%?

正確的。你是說你的新池下降了，什麼，5%？

The revenue related to new pools, yes.

是的，與新礦池相關的收入。

Okay. Okay. All right. And then second, speaking of new pools and new pool construction, can that segment reaccelerate in the absence of an improvement in turnover in the housing market and maybe more specifically, a resumption of the Southern migration?

好的。好的。好的。其次，說到新池和新池建設，如果房地產市場成交量沒有改善，或者更具體地說，南方移民恢復，該細分市場能否重新加速？

Yes. I think, Dave, as I mentioned, what you're going to see is basically stability at the mid and upper end, the families that have the financial means to do it without financing that are seeing stability in their home values that say, "I want a pool," I think that's going to happen.

是的。我認為，戴夫，正如我提到的，你將看到的基本上是中高端的穩定，那些有經濟能力在沒有融資的情況下做到這一點的家庭會看到他們的房屋價值的穩定性，“我想要一個游泳池，”我想這將會發生。

At this point, I don't see an acceleration in new pools yet because I don't see the -- what I think it would be the indicators that we would see that the lower-end pools come back into favor, and a lot of that is going to have to do with, as you mentioned, movement in the housing market. So I'm moving, so I might have freed up some equity, so I have some cash that I can use to build a pool and/or lower interest rates that would encourage me to move forward with a project if I had to finance most of it.

目前，我還沒有看到新池的加速增長，因為我沒有看到——我認為這將是我們會看到低端池重新受到青睞的指標，而且很多正如您所提到的，這與房地產市場的變動有關。所以我要搬家了，所以我可能釋放了一些股權，所以我有一些現金可以用來建立一個資金池和/或降低利率，如果我必須提供大部分資金，這將鼓勵我推進一個項目它的。

Our next question comes from Trey Grooms from Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬斯的特雷·格魯姆斯。

I guess first on the guide, I'm backing into an EBIT margin kind of in that low teens range. Melanie, is there anything we need to be aware of as far as kind of the cadence here as we look at the balance of the year?

我想首先在指南中，我將把息稅前利潤率調整到十幾歲的範圍內。梅蘭妮，當我們查看今年的剩餘時間時，就節奏而言，我們有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Yes. No. So if you're backing into that for the full year, I think that's pretty reasonable. When you look at just kind of top line, the comps that we'll have in the third quarter, where we were still up 10% for base business year-over-year are going to be more difficult than the fourth quarter where we were just up 1%.

是的。不。所以如果你全年都支持這一點，我認為這是相當合理的。當你看一下營收時，我們在第三季度的業績將比第四季度更加困難，我們的基礎業務仍同比增長 10%僅上漲1%。

We did start to see some of the slowdown in new construction in -- starting out in the fourth quarter, primarily kind of November, December of last year. So when you look at kind of the year-over-year comps, those should get relatively easier in the fourth quarter. And then third quarter, we'll also have that 1 less selling day as well.

從第四季度開始，尤其是去年 11 月和 12 月，我們確實開始看到新建築建設有所放緩。因此，當您查看同比比較時，您會發現第四季度的情況應該相對容易一些。第三季度，我們的銷售日也會減少 1 個。

Yes. Okay. Got it. And then kind of sticking with the guide. As we kind of look at the revised EPS guidance range here and Pete, I understand why you would have confidence in the guide given where we are in the year, and I appreciate the color you gave around that prior question. But looking at that range, what would kind of drive us to be more at the top end or the bottom end of that range? Is that -- given that confidence you have, do you think that, that would be more of a top line-driven swing or potential fluctuations in margins that could get us there?

是的。好的。知道了。然後就堅持遵循指南。當我們在這里和皮特查看修訂後的每股收益指導範圍時，我理解為什麼您會對我們今年所處的情況對指南充滿信心，並且我很欣賞您對之前問題給出的顏色。但看看這個範圍，什麼會促使我們更多地處於該範圍的頂端或底端？考慮到您的信心，您是否認為這將更多地是由營收驅動的波動或潛在的利潤波動來幫助我們實現這一目標？

The biggest driver there is going to be where we end up on the top line, kind of within that range bracketing that down 10%. So that will get us to the high and low end of the range. There'll be some expense offsets that will depend on the actual volume, but margins should be relatively similar in both case scenarios.

最大的推動因素將是我們最終達到的營收，在下降 10% 的範圍內。這樣我們就可以達到該範圍的高端和低端。根據實際數量，會有一些費用抵消，但在這兩種情況下，利潤率應該相對相似。

The volume -- as you know, volume leverage is by far our biggest lever.

成交量——如您所知，成交量槓桿是迄今為止我們最大的槓桿。

The next question comes from Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的斯科特·施尼伯格。

Pete or Melanie, could you -- you covered weather very well on the first question from Ryan. But I'm curious, you mentioned it was a $60 million to $70 million impact in the first quarter. When we're at this point next year, looking back on 2023, how much would you say is the -- will have been the weather impact from this year on a year-over-year basis? I guess is there an update to $60 million to $70 million is what I'm asking.

皮特或梅蘭妮，你們可以嗎——你們在瑞安提出的第一個問題上很好地回答了天氣問題。但我很好奇，您提到第一季度的影響為 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元。當我們明年此時回顧 2023 年時，您認為今年的天氣影響與去年同期相比有多大？我想我要問的是6000萬美元到7000萬美元是否有更新。

We have estimated for second quarter around $30 million.

我們預計第二季度的銷售額約為 3000 萬美元。

Incrementally, so $90 million to $100 million, Melanie?

逐漸增加，所以 9000 萬美元到 1 億美元，梅蘭妮？

Yes. That's correct.

是的。這是正確的。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then, Peter, you had said -- I think it was your part in the prepared remarks, that remodeling was trending ahead of what you had originally expected for the year, now that you're halfway through the year and had a chance to look at it. But then you kind of softened the commentary and said, but it looks like it's getting worked through pretty well. Could you elaborate on that, please?

好的。我很感激。然後，彼得，你說過——我認為這是你在準備好的發言中的部分，改造的趨勢超出了你今年最初的預期，現在你已經過半了，有機會看它。但後來你軟化了評論並說，但看起來事情進展得很好。請您詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. I looked at -- we looked at the permit activity and what we believe happening on new pool construction and how we triangulated on that, we look at those 2 products that I mentioned, new pool finish or pool finish and tile, knowing that those 2 products only go into 2 things, one is a renovation and new pool construction.

是的。我查看了 - 我們查看了許可活動以及我們認為新泳池建設中發生的情況以及我們如何對此進行三角測量，我們查看了我提到的這兩種產品，新泳池飾面或泳池飾面和瓷磚，知道這兩個產品只涉及兩件事，一是翻新和新泳池建設。

So the new pool finish, as I mentioned in the second quarter, was up 2%. And that number for -- earlier in the year was -- I'm sorry, new pool finish was down 2% for the second quarter, kind of similar to what it was in the first quarter, but it was skewed.

因此，正如我在第二季度提到的，新的池完成率增長了 2%。今年早些時候的數字是——對不起，第二季度新池完成率下降了 2%，與第一季度的情況類似，但有所傾斜。

So when I looked at how the end of the second quarter plays out with pool finish and tile, it looks like it's moderating a little bit, meaning that it started out better and then has moderated a little bit. And given that we don't really see a big movement in new pool construction, my only conclusion is, is that some of that has to do with renovation and remodel.

因此，當我查看第二季度末的泳池飾面和瓷磚效果時，它看起來有點緩和了，這意味著它開始時更好，然後又緩和了一點。鑑於我們並沒有真正看到新泳池建設的大動作，我唯一的結論是，其中一些與翻新和改造有關。

Now keep in mind, when we look at renovation and remodel, what I'm not saying is that our expectations are any different. I just think that when you look at the guide we gave related to new pool construction -- I'm sorry, related to renovation and remodel being down 15% to 20%. I think that it's going to be skewed more heavily towards the beginning of the year being better. And then as they work through the backlog, we think it will be weaker towards the back half.

現在請記住，當我們考慮翻新和改造時，我並不是說我們的期望有所不同。我只是認為，當您查看我們提供的與新泳池建設相關的指南時，很抱歉，與翻新和改建相關的指南下降了 15% 至 20%。我認為今年年初情況會更好。然後，當他們處理積壓的工作時，我們認為後半部分的情況會更弱。

The next question comes from Joe Ahlersmeyer from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Just a couple of questions from my end. First, on the -- just a follow-up from earlier. I think you said negative 5% was the 2Q impact from new construction. That's not that the category was down 5%, it's that it was a 5-point impact to the consolidated number. Is that correct? .

我最後只想問幾個問題。首先，只是之前的後續行動。我想你說過負 5% 是新建築對第二季度的影響。這並不是說該類別下降了 5%，而是對綜合數字產生了 5 個百分點的影響。那是對的嗎？ 。

Yes.

是的。

And then just thinking about the cumulative change in the sales guide from earlier in the year, let's take sort of the initial midpoint down 1% to 2% and then now we're at 10%. Can you maybe bucket that 8- to 9-point change in sort of -- and I know this is a lot, but 4 different buckets, kind of one, things that are pushed to next year. So that maybe is the deferrals that you talked about, things that are current year circumstances like weather that really have nothing to do with next year and the things that are worse this year but may improve next year, I'm thinking maybe the pool construction economics impacts there.

然後考慮一下今年早些時候銷售指南的累積變化，讓我們將最初的中點下降 1% 到 2%，然後現在是 10%。你能不能把 8 到 9 點的變化放在一起——我知道這是很多，但有 4 個不同的部分，有點像一個，那些被推到明年的事情。所以這可能是你談到的延期，今年的情況，比如天氣，與明年確實無關，還有今年更糟糕但明年可能會有所改善的事情，我想也許是泳池建設那裡的經濟影響。

And then things that are worse than expected that likely won't recover, so are in structural impairments to your business like share loss or pricing, which I think both of which you said you're not experiencing. And I -- if you're not going to bucket it, maybe just the way to think about the question is if you're still investing behind growth, the question that I'm getting from investors is thinking about earnings next year, is there really any impairment to next year's earnings power between the beginning of the year and now? And so maybe just if you could take the opportunity to explicitly say that from February to July, actually very little has changed in your mind about what your earnings power is next year.

然後，比預期更糟糕且可能無法恢復的事情也會對您的業務造成結構性損害，例如股票損失或定價，我認為您說您沒有經歷過這兩種情況。我——如果你不打算這麼做，也許思考這個問題的方法是，你是否仍在投資於增長，我從投資者那裡得到的問題是考慮明年的收益，是從年初到現在，對明年的盈利能力真的有損害嗎？因此，如果您能藉此機會明確表示，從 2 月到 7 月，您對明年盈利能力的看法實際上幾乎沒有改變。

From a top line, if you kind of walk through -- so our initial guidance was flat to negative 3%. So we did have some expectation that we could see some negative impact. The biggest thing that changed since that point in time, the biggest single indicator is going to be the weather. So when you look at the cumulative weather impact, that is around $90 million, as we talked about.

從頂線來看，如果你稍微看一下——那麼我們最初的指導是持平至負 3%。所以我們確實有一些預期，我們可能會看到一些負面影響。自那時以來變化最大的事情，最大的單一指標將是天氣。因此，當您查看累積的天氣影響時，正如我們所討論的，該影響約為 9000 萬美元。

The other thing that we called out that it's not -- there's nothing else kind of that's significant in an individual standpoint. But the things that were kind of new for this quarter was the impact on the trichlor pricing, and so that was about 1% for the quarter. We do think that, that will continue for the rest of the year.

我們指出的另一件事是，從個人角度來看，沒有什麼其他事情是重要的。但本季度的新變化是對三氯定價的影響，因此本季度的影響約為 1%。我們確實認為這種情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。

So overall, not that significant. The other thing, the deferred sales activity, so we don't think the consumer sentiment, we don't see that, that will continue as we get into next year, but that is something that was not considered in our initial guide as part of that. And then we also -- when you look at the change in our early buy activity from our customer standpoint, which we equate to channel inventory, that did come in higher this year than we had originally anticipated as well as part of our initial guide.

所以總體來說，沒有那麼重要。另一件事是推遲的銷售活動，所以我們認為消費者情緒不會在進入明年時繼續下去，但我們最初的指南中沒有考慮到這一點的。然後，當您從客戶的角度來看我們早期購買活動的變化時（我們將其等同於渠道庫存），今年的變化確實高於我們最初的預期以及我們最初指南的一部分。

The next question comes from Andrew Carter from Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Andrew Carter。

Going into the guidance, looking at it here, did you say SG&A would be modestly up this year and that would be a change from minus 2%? And within that, given the kind of guidance reduction this year, is incentive comp meaningfully lower, therefore, there will be a reset next year?

進入指導，看看這裡，您是否說今年的 SG&A 會小幅上漲，這將是負 2% 的變化？其中，考慮到今年指導意見的減少，激勵補償是否顯著降低，因此明年是否會進行重置？

Incentive comp in the current guide is less than what we originally at the beginning of the year, we had kind of talked about $10 million to $15 million. So it's a little bit too early to call the final number because when we look at the balance of the year, we are continuing to aggressively pursue various different sales actions and programs. And so there's still quite a bit left in the year to determine what that final number will be, but we will expect that to be a little bit higher than kind of our original $15 million estimate.

當前指南中的激勵補償比我們最初在年初時的獎勵要少，我們曾談論過 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元。因此，現在得出最終數字還為時過早，因為當我們查看今年的餘額時，我們將繼續積極尋求各種不同的銷售行動和計劃。因此，今年仍然有相當多的時間來確定最終數字，但我們預計該數字會比我們最初估計的 1500 萬美元略高一些。

And so as we go into next year, we would expect that to revert back and come back into the expense base, but that the gross profit dollars that we'll generate from the revenue will more than offset the incremental expense on the inbound comp side.

因此，當我們進入明年時，我們預計會恢復並回到費用基礎，但我們從收入中產生的毛利潤將超過抵消入境補償方面的增量費用。

And then back to you, like -- I'm sorry, did I catch that SG&A is going to be up this year and that might be just because of new branches and acquisitions?

然後回到你的問題上——對不起，我是否注意到今年的銷售、一般管理費用（SG&A）將會上升，這可能只是因為新的分支機構和收購？

Yes. So the guide for the full year is that it will be up no more than 1%. So yes, the original we had talked about that it could be kind of negative 2% to plus 2%, depending upon where the top line fell out. So we've -- as we've gotten further through the year, we can more confidently say that it won't exceed a 1% increase.

是的。因此，全年的指導意見是漲幅不會超過 1%。所以，是的，我們最初討論過，它可能是負 2% 到正 2%，具體取決於頂線的下降情況。因此，隨著這一年的進展，我們可以更加自信地說，增幅不會超過 1%。

Okay. And then kind of thinking about like kind of harp on the kind of the share perspective. I know you wait for the markets, but if you look out there and think about like unique customers that have come in, in '21, '22, if you look at that activity, do you have a firm sense that you know you're at least holding market share or that they're not going elsewhere? Anything more granular that you have real time that tells you that, hey, you're still outperforming the market, holding your market share gains or maybe not, maybe you're ceding some market share?

好的。然後像豎琴一樣思考分享的觀點。我知道你在等待市場，但如果你看看那裡，想想在 21 年、22 年進入的獨特客戶，如果你看看那個活動，你是否有一種堅定的感覺，你了解你自己。至少持有市場份額或者他們不會去其他地方？有沒有比實時更詳細的信息告訴您，嘿，您仍然跑贏市場，保持市場份額增長，或者也許沒有，也許您正在放棄一些市場份額？

Yes. Andrew, market share is -- it's a bit elusive in an industry like ours, so we have to triangulate it on market share. But we also -- one of the beauties of this business is that we operate now 432 individual P&Ls, and we track customers at the local level.

是的。安德魯，市場份額在我們這樣的行業中有點難以捉摸，所以我們必鬚根據市場份額進行三角測量。但我們這項業務的優點之一是，我們現在運營著 432 個單獨的損益表，並且我們在本地層面跟踪客戶。

So we have a pretty good view of what's going on from -- at the individual customer level. And then we also get some information from the manufacturers as what's going on in the channel in total. And then we look at things like if the permit data and new pool construction is going to be down 30%, we have the ability to kind of back into what is our new pool construction number look like given we do an analysis, we look at certain items that are sold only on a new pool to try and triangulate in on that. And we know that we're trending better than the minus 30% that the industry is likely going to see on new pool construction.

因此，我們對個人客戶層面的情況有一個很好的了解。然後我們還從製造商那裡獲得一些信息，了解渠道中發生的情況。然後我們會考慮這樣的事情，如果許可證數據和新水池建設將下降 30%，我們有能力回顧我們的新水池建設數量，因為我們進行了分析，我們看看某些物品僅在新池中出售，以便嘗試對此進行三角測量。我們知道，我們的趨勢比行業在新泳池建設中可能看到的負 30% 的趨勢要好。

So unfortunately, it's not an exact science. But given industry information that we can see and that we get from our supplier partners, I think we're very confident in our ability to continue to grow and take share.

不幸的是，這不是一門精確的科學。但考慮到我們可以看到的以及從供應商合作夥伴那裡獲得的行業信息，我認為我們對繼續增長和占領市場份額的能力非常有信心。

One last question, on the deferrals that you do -- that you talked about, you mentioned that's been pretty steady, something breaks, it gets fixed. I guess when we go into these later months and something breaks in August and you have the option to winterize or whatever, do you think there could be an added risk that you see deferrals pick up this season and that might be something that could catch you off guard? Or is that just something that, as I say, that it's just too small, it doesn't even matter?

最後一個問題，關於你所做的延期——你談到過，你提到這一直很穩定，有些東西出了問題，它就會得到修復。我想當我們進入後面的幾個月，八月份出現一些問題，你可以選擇過冬或其他什麼的時候，你認為可能會有一個額外的風險，你會看到這個季節的延期增加，這可能會吸引你措手不及？或者正如我所說，這只是太小了，甚至不重要？

Yes. I'm not sure this late in the season, right? So for instance, I don't have -- nobody is going to winterize their pool in July or August, right, because it's still hot. And if you -- even if you say, "Hey, look, the pump broke, I'm not going to fix it. I'm going to just winterize the pool." The pool is still going to turn green because the water temperature is high. And that's going to do damage to the pool finish. So homeowners are not likely to do that.

是的。我不確定這個賽季這麼晚，對嗎？舉例來說，我沒有——沒有人會在七月或八月對他們的游泳池進行防凍，對吧，因為它仍然很熱。如果你——即使你說，“嘿，看，水泵壞了，我不會修它。我只會給游泳池做防凍措施。”由於水溫很高，泳池仍然會變綠。這會對泳池表面造成損害。所以業主不太可能這樣做。

So we don't really see a change in consumer behavior on essentials, right? The break/fix, the things that you have to move the water, filter the water and treat the water, if you have any part of that equation that is bad, you really have no choice but to fix it. And winterizing the pools, pools are not drained.

所以我們並沒有真正看到消費者在必需品上的行為發生變化，對吧？中斷/修復，你必須移動水、過濾水和處理水，如果這個方程的任何部分有問題，你真的別無選擇，只能修復它。並對水池進行防凍處理，水池不排水。

They essentially -- they put a cover over them, they put a lot of chemicals in there. But if the water temperature is still warm, you can't put enough chemicals in that pool, onetime dose and cover it in order to keep it from turning green. And green pools, obviously, a lot of bad things come from that. They're unsightly, frankly, they're dangerous and they're going to do damage in the pool. So I don't really think that's a big concern.

他們本質上是——他們在上面蓋上蓋子，在裡面放了很多化學物質。但如果水溫仍然溫暖，你就不能在池子裡放入足夠的化學物質，一次性投藥並蓋上蓋子，以防止池子變綠。顯然，綠色泳池會帶來很多不好的事情。坦率地說，它們很難看，而且很危險，而且會在泳池中造成損害。所以我真的不認為這是一個大問題。

The next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

I just had one question here. I wonder if you could just sort of focus in on maintenance and repair business, maintenance and repair spending. And talk about the extent to which you're seeing price elasticity, where within the various product categories, you may be seeing that. And in the aggregate, what percentage of maintenance repair is really showing kind of elevated levels of price elasticity versus more nondiscretionary, inelastic pattern?

我在這裡只有一個問題。我想知道您是否可以專注於維護和維修業務、維護和維修支出。並談論您看到的價格彈性的程度，在各種產品類別中，您可能會看到這種情況。總體而言，相對於非自由裁量、無彈性的模式，真正顯示出較高價格彈性水平的維護維修百分比是多少？

I guess the way I would approach that is, when it comes to maintenance and repair, it really depends on the item. So for instance, when we talk about maintenance, a big portion of the maintenance business is chemicals. And there, we've seen a decline in trichlor pricing in some areas frankly, because of inventory that was purchased in anticipation, frankly, of higher usage that people are trying to get rid of before the end of the year because you don't want to end -- you don't want to winter over a bunch of chemicals because every month, they sit on a shelf and in a bucket, they become less potent.

我想我的方法是，當涉及到維護和維修時，這實際上取決於項目。例如，當我們談論維護時，維護業務的很大一部分是化學品。坦率地說，我們看到某些地區的三氯價格下降，因為坦率地說，由於預期使用量會增加而購買的庫存，人們試圖在年底前擺脫這些庫存，因為你不這樣做想要結束——你不想在一堆化學物質上過冬，因為每個月，它們放在架子上和桶裡，它們的效力就會減弱。

So we've seen certainly some heightened activity to get rid of some chemicals. But frankly, right now, the demand for chemicals is very strong. And we're seeing an offset in that in terms of the other chemicals, which would be balancers, shock and specialty. And then, again, when it comes to an equipment, my pump quit or the motor fails, so I have a choice, I can fix it or I can replace it. We haven't seen a big shift in the customer behavior as it relates to well, I'm not going to fix, I'm not going to replace it anymore, I'm going to fix it. Because we look at our median order value, you look at our median line value, and then we look at our parts sales, whole good sales, and we haven't really seen anything materially change there.

因此，我們確實看到了一些消除某些化學物質的活動的加強。但坦白說，目前化學品的需求非常旺盛。我們看到其他化學品（平衡劑、減震劑和特種化學品）的抵消作用。然後，再說一次，當涉及到設備時，我的泵停止運行或電機出現故障，所以我有一個選擇，我可以修理它，也可以更換它。我們還沒有看到客戶行為發生重大轉變，因為這與很好有關，我不會修復它，我不會再更換它，我會修復它。因為我們查看我們的中位訂單價值，您查看我們的中位線價值，然後我們查看我們的零件銷售，整體良好的銷售，我們並沒有真正看到任何實質性變化。

So when it comes to a break/fix item, the only thing in terms of price elasticity, if one of those components fails, it has to be replaced. And chances are that when that happens, that's not something that is negotiated at the distributor that says, "Hey, I can buy this cheaper here or there." They're in -- they pick up what we have because they're there for many other reasons other than we may be a nickel cheaper or more expensive. So I don't really see a lot of price elasticity on nondiscretionary items.

因此，當涉及到故障/修復產品時，就價格彈性而言，唯一的問題是，如果其中一個組件出現故障，則必須更換它。當這種情況發生時，經銷商可能不會說“嘿，我可以在這里或那裡買更便宜的東西。”他們進來了——他們拿起了我們擁有的東西，因為他們在那裡還有很多其他原因，除了我們可能便宜或貴一分錢之外。因此，我並沒有真正看到非自由支配物品的價格彈性很大。

Discretionary items, a little bit different story. So as I mentioned, robots, for instance, which are a great product for pools, have gone up in value. And that's where some people are looking at saying, "Maybe I'll wait till next year on that."

可自由支配的物品，有點不同的故事。正如我所提到的，例如，機器人，它是泳池的絕佳產品，其價值已經上升。這就是有些人說的：“也許我會等到明年。”

Our last question comes from Garik Shmois of Loop Capital.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Garik Shmois。

I know it's a little early, but I was just wondering how you're thinking about product inflation into next year, if you're seeing any indications from your suppliers on how they're thinking about pricing if we're returning more to kind of a normal 1% to 2% inflation environment? Or any color you might have a bit early into next year would be great.

我知道現在有點早，但我只是想知道您如何看待明年的產品通脹，如果您看到供應商提供的任何跡象表明，如果我們更多地退回實物，他們將如何考慮定價正常的 1% 至 2% 通脹環境如何？或者明年早些時候你可能擁有的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. Very early to give you an accurate answer to that question. I can tell you that where my head is at right now is I believe that it's going to be above normal once again. And the reason is, is because everybody's SG&A costs and operating costs, whether it is rent, whether it is trucks, people, labor being obviously the biggest component, none of those -- none -- there's been no retreat in anybody's operating expenses. So I can't see manufacturers only passing on the historic 1% to 2%. I would expect it to be higher. I could be wrong, but I would expect it to be higher.

是的。很早就給你這個問題的準確答案。我可以告訴你，我現在的想法是，我相信它會再次高於正常水平。原因是，因為每個人的SG&A成本和運營成本，無論是租金、卡車、人員、勞動力顯然是最大的組成部分，但沒有一個——沒有——任何人的運營支出都沒有下降。所以我不認為製造商只放棄歷史性的 1% 到 2%。我預計它會更高。我可能是錯的，但我預計它會更高。

Okay. And my follow-up question is just on Pinch A Penny just because we had a retail competitor speak of the need to draw down inventories and accelerate pricing pressure. As a result, it looks like your results in Pinch A Penny held in quite well in the quarter. Are you seeing any of those similar dynamics with respect to incremental pricing and inventory destock that has to occur?

好的。我的後續問題只是關於“Pinch A Penny”，因為我們有一家零售競爭對手談到需要減少庫存並加速定價壓力。因此，看起來您的 Pinch A Penny 業績在本季度保持得相當不錯。您是否看到任何與必鬚髮生的增量定價和庫存去庫存相關的類似動態？

Yes. The Pinch A Penny franchisees is a -- they operate a great business, and our model is different than most of our competitors as it relates to the publicly traded entities. So we're happy with the performance. But as I mentioned, they're seeing a similar pattern in that the nondiscretionary business is holding up quite well.

是的。 Pinch A Penny 特許經營商是——他們經營著一家偉大的企業，我們的模式與大多數競爭對手不同，因為它與公開交易的實體相關。所以我們對錶現很滿意。但正如我所提到的，他們看到了類似的模式，即非全權委託業務表現良好。

But some of the equipment as specifically like cleaners and such that are more discretionary, I should have one. I don't have to have one. If I have an older one, I might be able to get, buy another year with it. Though they're seeing some hesitation for the consumer at that point, but that, frankly, is baked into their performance, which is why they're flattish. And given the underlying conditions, we're actually pretty happy with that.

但有些設備，比如清潔工之類的，比較隨意，我應該有一個。我不必擁有一個。如果我有一個舊的，我也許可以再買一年。儘管他們當時看到消費者有些猶豫，但坦率地說，這已融入他們的表現中，這就是他們表現平淡的原因。考慮到基本條件，我們實際上對此非常滿意。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Peter Arvan for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Peter Arvan 發表閉幕詞。

Yes. I just want to thank everybody for your continuing interest and support in POOLCORP, and thank you for joining us today. We look forward to continuing to lead the industry for the remainder of the year and beyond and providing the highest level of value of service for our customers and our suppliers.

是的。我只想感謝大家對 POOLCORP 的持續關注和支持，並感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在今年剩餘時間及以後繼續引領行業，並為我們的客戶和供應商提供最高水平的服務價值。

We'll be discussing our third quarter 2023 results on October 19 of this year, and look forward to talking to you all then. Thank you very much.

我們將於今年 10 月 19 日討論 2023 年第三季度業績，並期待屆時與大家交談。非常感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。