Pool Corp (POOL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Pool Corporation First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 Pool Corporation 2023 年第一季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Melanie Hart, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給副總裁兼首席財務官梅蘭妮哈特。請繼續。

Welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our discussion, comments and responses to questions today may include forward-looking statements, including management's outlook for 2023 and future periods. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information regarding the factors and variables that could cause actual results to differ from projected results are discussed in our 10-K.

歡迎大家參加我們 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。我們今天的討論、評論和對問題的回答可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括管理層對 2023 年和未來時期的展望。實際結果可能與今天討論的結果大不相同。我們的 10-K 中討論了有關可能導致實際結果與預計結果不同的因素和變量的信息。

In addition, we may make references to non-GAAP financial measures in our comments. A description and reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures is included in our press release and posted to our corporate website in the Investor Relations section.

此外，我們可能會在評論中提及非 GAAP 財務措施。我們的新聞稿中包含對我們的非 GAAP 財務措施的描述和對賬，並發佈在我們公司網站的投資者關係部分。

Peter Arvan, our President and CEO, will begin the call with his comments.

我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Peter Arvan 將以他的評論開始電話會議。

Thank you, Melanie, and good morning to everyone on the call. This morning, we released our first quarter results, which were adversely affected by challenging weather patterns across most of the North American market, and we were up against extremely difficult comparisons from 2022. Despite cooler and extraordinarily wetter weather across many of our year-round markets, we posted revenue of $1.2 billion, down 15% for both total and base business revenue when compared to 2022. As a reminder, in the first quarter of 2021, our base business sales grew 51%. In the first quarter of 2022, we saw sales grow by an additional 26%, which makes a quarter-over-quarter comparison tough in and of itself, but especially when confronted with unprecedented weather in some of our major markets.

謝謝你，梅蘭妮，早上好，所有在電話中的人。今天早上，我們發布了第一季度業績，該業績受到北美市場大部分地區惡劣天氣模式的不利影響，而且我們面臨著與 2022 年相比極其困難的情況。儘管我們全年許多地區的天氣都比較涼爽和異常潮濕市場，我們公佈的收入為 12 億美元，與 2022 年相比，總收入和基礎業務收入均下降 15%。提醒一下，在 2021 年第一季度，我們的基礎業務銷售額增長了 51%。在 2022 年第一季度，我們看到銷售額額外增長了 26%，這本身就很難進行環比比較，尤其是當我們的一些主要市場面臨前所未有的天氣時。

What is encouraging, though, is that in the areas where the weather was normal, our business performed in line with expectations.

不過，令人鼓舞的是，在天氣正常的地區，我們的業務表現符合預期。

Looking specifically at our year-round base business markets, we saw sales decline 9%. California, as you well know, saw historic amounts of rain and cooler temperatures in the quarter, which curtailed both construction and maintenance spending and led to a sales decline of 24% in this very important market. This compares with the same quarter last year where we saw sales increase by 31%.

具體來看我們全年的基礎業務市場，我們發現銷售額下降了 9%。眾所周知，加利福尼亞州在本季度出現了歷史性的降雨量和較低的氣溫，這減少了建築和維護支出，並導致這個非常重要的市場的銷售額下降了 24%。與去年同期相比，我們看到銷售額增長了 31%。

In Arizona, we saw sales decline 14% as they, too, experienced above-average rain and cooler temperatures as compared to the normal seasonal patterns and what we saw in 2022. Again, by way of comparison, for the same quarter last year, Arizona saw sales increase by 31%.

在亞利桑那州，我們看到銷售額下降了 14%，因為與正常的季節性模式和我們在 2022 年看到的情況相比，他們也經歷了高於平均水平的降雨和較低的溫度。同樣，通過比較，去年同一季度，亞利桑那州的銷售額增長了 31%。

Texas, which experienced a more normal weather pattern, saw sales decline 6%, following a 7% gain for the same period last year, which is in line with expectations set earlier [the year].

經歷了更正常天氣模式的得克薩斯州銷售額繼去年同期增長 7% 後下降了 6%，這符合 [今年] 早些時候設定的預期。

Florida, which experienced favorable weather in the quarter, saw sales increase 7% on top of the 30% growth that we saw last year in the same quarter. Our seasonal markets, which include Canada, saw sales decreased 23%, but this compares with the 28% growth that we saw in the first quarter of 2022.

佛羅里達州在本季度經歷了有利的天氣，銷售額在去年同期增長 30% 的基礎上增長了 7%。我們的季節性市場（包括加拿大）的銷售額下降了 23%，但這與我們在 2022 年第一季度看到的 28% 的增長率形成了鮮明對比。

As has always been true in our industry, the biggest single external variable that can impact our business is the weather. Early in the quarter, we were encouraged by the weather conditions, but that quickly changed to a headwind and became more impactful as the quarter progressed and the sales effects became more meaningful.

在我們的行業中一直如此，影響我們業務的最大單一外部變量是天氣。本季度初，天氣狀況令我們感到鼓舞，但隨著本季度的推進和銷售效果變得更有意義，這種情況很快就變成了逆風並且影響更大。

All in, we believe that the historic weather pattern that we have seen so far this year, particularly in the Western U.S., negatively impacted revenue by approximately $60 million to $70 million. Typically speaking, adverse weather delays pool and outdoor living construction, which may be made up on the shoulders of the season if the weather allows. Maintenance and repair spending are mostly lost as the pools go unused during the inclement weather, limiting some equipment usage, which may lower postpone repair spending and definitely curtails chemical needs.

總而言之，我們認為今年迄今為止我們所看到的歷史性天氣模式，特別是在美國西部，對收入產生了大約 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元的負面影響。通常來說，惡劣的天氣會延遲游泳池和戶外生活的建設，如果天氣允許的話，這可能會在季節的肩膀上得到彌補。維護和維修支出大部分都損失了，因為在惡劣天氣期間游泳池閒置，限制了一些設備的使用，這可能會降低延遲維修支出，並肯定會減少化學品需求。

After assessing initial permit data, demand for new pool construction is clearly down. The decline ranges from a high negative teens percent to over 50% in some markets. In total, we believe the overall pool permit number is down approximately 30% so far. This is worse than we had contemplated in our previous guide that's driven mostly by the weather and some additional economic headwinds.

在評估初始許可數據後，對新泳池建設的需求明顯下降。在某些市場，下降幅度從十幾歲的負百分比到超過 50% 不等。總的來說，我們認為總體池許可證數量到目前為止下降了約 30%。這比我們之前在主要受天氣和一些額外的經濟逆風影響的指南中預期的更糟。

However, when comparing 4Q 2022 levels to the first quarter of 2023, we see permits up 4%, which is encouraging.

然而，將 2022 年第四季度的水平與 2023 年第一季度的水平進行比較時，我們看到許可增長了 4%，這令人鼓舞。

Weather, interest rates, consumer spending and the end of COVID tailwinds all contributed to lower pool construction activity on a year-over-year basis, but we are encouraged that the sequential quarterly permit level is up. We continue to see lower end pools that typically are financed under the most pressure as consumers grapple with the higher cost of borrowing and higher pool construction costs. We estimate that our sales into the pool construction segment are down 25%, which implies that we continue to take share, which is consistent with our past performance.

天氣、利率、消費者支出和 COVID 順風的結束都導致泳池建設活動同比下降，但令我們感到鼓舞的是，連續的季度許可水平有所上升。隨著消費者努力應對更高的借貸成本和更高的資金池建設成本，我們繼續看到通常承受最大融資壓力的低端資金池。我們估計我們在游泳池建設部門的銷售額下降了 25%，這意味著我們將繼續佔據份額，這與我們過去的表現一致。

Our unmatched value proposition and commitment to an unparalleled customer experience continue to make us the supplier of choice for the industry. For context, new pool construction accounts for approximately 15% of our business. Approximately 60% of the business is driven by maintenance and repair, with the remaining 25% being driven by renovation and remodel.

我們無與倫比的價值主張和對無與倫比的客戶體驗的承諾繼續使我們成為行業的首選供應商。就背景而言，新泳池建設約占我們業務的 15%。大約 60% 的業務由維護和維修驅動，其餘 25% 由翻新和改造驅動。

As you can see, approximately 85% of our business is driven by pools that already exist. As we had anticipated, renovation -- the renovation business appears to be holding up much better than new pool construction. This is based on our estimates that our new pool construction sales are off approximately 25%. However, sales of key construction products that are used only in construction and renovation are down only 3%, which implies that renovation activity is solid.

如您所見，我們大約 85% 的業務是由現有的礦池驅動的。正如我們所預料的那樣，翻新——翻新業務似乎比新泳池建設的表現要好得多。這是基於我們的估計，即我們的新泳池建築銷售額下降了約 25%。然而，僅用於建築和翻新的主要建築產品的銷售額僅下降了 3%，這意味著翻新活動穩固。

Turning to end markets. Commercial swimming pool product sales, which tend to be less weather dependent, are up 12%. Base business sales to the retail channel were off 16% for the quarter, reflecting a return to more normal buying patterns as supply chains have normalized. We believe normalized supply, cooler weather and a later spring across most of the country also delayed some shipments to the stores to align with a later start to the season and normal material availability.

轉向終端市場。受天氣影響較小的商業游泳池產品銷售額增長了 12%。本季度零售渠道的基本業務銷售額下降了 16%，反映出隨著供應鏈的正常化，購買模式回歸到更正常的水平。我們認為，全國大部分地區的正常供應、涼爽的天氣和較晚的春季也推遲了一些對商店的發貨，以配合季節的較晚開始和正常的材料供應。

Pinch A Penny, franchisee revenue is our indicator for retail sell-through. Here, we saw sales increase 10% in the quarter, which we believe is a good indication of the resilience of demand in markets where the weather is more typical for this time of year.

Pinch A Penny，加盟商收入是我們的零售銷售指標。在這裡，我們看到該季度的銷售額增長了 10%，我們認為這很好地表明了每年這個時候天氣更為典型的市場的需求彈性。

Moving on to specific product categories. It should be no surprise to see that equipment sales were down 14% in the quarter, which is attributable to construction unit volume declines based on lower backlogs, unfavorable weather and smaller and later customer early buys. As previously noted, we saw no change in pricing as all the increases in this category are holding and are expected to hold as is normal.

轉到特定的產品類別。本季度設備銷售額下降 14% 不足為奇，這是由於積壓訂單減少、天氣不利以及客戶早期購買量較小和較晚導致建築單位數量下降。如前所述，我們看到定價沒有變化，因為該類別的所有增長都保持不變，並且預計將保持正常。

Chemical sales in the quarter were down 11%, which is also expected with the cooler and wetter weather. Of note, Florida, which had favorable weather throughout the quarter, saw chemical sales increased 12%.

本季度的化學品銷售額下降了 11%，這也是隨著天氣變冷和變濕而出現的。值得注意的是，整個季度天氣良好的佛羅里達州的化學品銷售額增長了 12%。

Building material sales for the quarter were down 7%, reflecting lower new build offset somewhat by higher renovation and remodel numbers.

本季度的建材銷售額下降了 7%，反映出新建築的減少在一定程度上被翻新和改建數量增加所抵消。

Let me now provide some context on Europe. We continue to see the demand in Europe remains soft. The general economic outlook, the effects of the war and, again, the weather have combined degree headwinds that resulted in our sales decline in 25%. For context, last year, in the first quarter, sales were up 5% as the effects of the war had yet to begin, and the general economic outlook was more stable. For reference, the first quarter of 2021 saw sales increase 115%, so the 2-year stack is quite difficult.

現在讓我提供一些有關歐洲的背景信息。我們繼續看到歐洲的需求仍然疲軟。總體經濟前景、戰爭的影響以及天氣的影響綜合起來造成我們的銷售額下降 25%。就背景而言，去年第一季度，由於戰爭的影響尚未開始，整體經濟前景更加穩定，銷售額增長了 5%。作為參考，2021 年第一季度的銷售額增長了 115%，因此 2 年的堆棧相當困難。

Turning to Horizon base business results. The first quarter sales decreased 7%, with residential activities declining most prevalent in the Western states, offset somewhat by commercial project demand and stronger demand in Florida and Texas. Weather implications are being felt in this business as well, delaying some projects, but we are optimistic that some of this loss can be made up.

轉向 Horizon 基礎業務結果。第一季度銷售額下降 7%，住宅活動下降在西部各州最為普遍，但在一定程度上被商業項目需求以及佛羅里達州和德克薩斯州的強勁需求所抵消。該業務也受到天氣影響，推遲了一些項目，但我們樂觀地認為可以彌補部分損失。

Moving down the income statement. Let me briefly cover gross margin. We are very pleased with the 30.6% that we posted, reflecting the work that we have done in this area related to mix, pricing and inventory investments. Melanie will provide additional color in her prepared remarks.

向下移動損益表。讓我簡要介紹一下毛利率。我們對公佈的 30.6% 感到非常滿意，這反映了我們在該領域所做的與組合、定價和庫存投資相關的工作。梅蘭妮將在她準備好的發言中提供額外的色彩。

Operating expenses came in at 18.6% of net sales. Although this is higher than we have seen in the previous 2 years, this is largely attributable to investments that we continue to make towards our long-term growth inflation and the effects of a softer weather-driven revenue quarter. As we have previously discussed, our cost model is somewhat variable, but we do not want to take structural actions that would impede our ability to fulfill future demand. As you know, the first quarter is our seasonally least significant, especially given the unprecedented weather headwinds. It would be premature to read too much into the quarter.

營業費用占淨銷售額的 18.6%。儘管這比我們在過去兩年中看到的要高，但這主要歸因於我們繼續為實現長期增長通脹而進行的投資以及天氣驅動的收入季度疲軟的影響。正如我們之前所討論的，我們的成本模型有些可變，但我們不想採取會阻礙我們滿足未來需求能力的結構性行動。如您所知，第一季度是我們季節性最不重要的季度，尤其是考慮到前所未有的天氣逆風。對本季度進行過多解讀還為時過早。

We, however, continue to invest in new sales centers and customer programs that we believe allow us to continue to provide best-in-class service and value for our customers and suppliers. For the quarter, we added 7 new locations, 2 acquired and 5 greenfields. For the balance of the year, we expect to add another 5 to 7.

然而，我們將繼續投資於新的銷售中心和客戶計劃，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續為我們的客戶和供應商提供一流的服務和價值。本季度，我們增加了 7 個新地點、2 個收購地點和 5 個新建地點。對於今年餘下的時間，我們預計再增加 5 到 7 個。

Additionally, Pinch A Penny welcomed 5 new franchise new locations in the quarter. With respect to customer tools, POOL360 saw online or activity decreased by only 3%, indicating deeper penetration and increased usage within our customer base.

此外，Pinch A Penny 在本季度迎來了 5 個新的特許經營地點。在客戶工具方面，POOL360 的在線或活躍度僅下降了 3%，這表明我們客戶群中的滲透率和使用率有所提高。

Completing the income statement, we reported operating income of $146 million, which reflects strong execution in the weather-constrained environment. It is noteworthy that although this represents a 38% decline at the shoulders of the season, it is 13% higher than what we posted in the first quarter of 2021 and significantly higher than prepandemic levels.

完成損益表後，我們報告營業收入為 1.46 億美元，這反映了在天氣受限環境中的強大執行力。值得注意的是，儘管這代表本賽季末下降了 38%，但比我們在 2021 年第一季度發布的數據高出 13%，並且明顯高於大流行前的水平。

Before I turn the call over to Melanie for her financial commentary, let me address our guidance update. In any given year, we face challenges with the weather and uncertainties in the economy and how that can affect customer behavior, labor cost and availability and operating expenses. Competitive pressures, and of late, geopolitical events can also impact our results. Some of these we can foresee and prepare for, while others we cannot, but still have a significant short-term impact on financial results.

在我把電話轉給梅蘭妮聽取她的財務評論之前，讓我談談我們的指導更新。在任何一年，我們都面臨著天氣和經濟不確定性的挑戰，以及這將如何影響客戶行為、勞動力成本和可用性以及運營費用。競爭壓力和最近的地緣政治事件也會影響我們的結果。其中一些我們可以預見和準備，而另一些我們不能，但仍然對財務結果產生重大的短期影響。

In a typical year, it is not uncommon to be impacted by one or more of these conditions. The implications on short-term operating results vary with each, but experience tells us that the more prominent impact are felt with significant changes in the weather, which can produce immediate impacts on operating results that will vary based on the weather event, the market size where they occur and timing. This is nothing new, and we have seen it frequently in the past.

在典型的一年中，受到這些條件中的一種或多種影響的情況並不少見。對短期經營業績的影響各不相同，但經驗告訴我們，天氣的重大變化會帶來更顯著的影響，這會對經營業績產生直接影響，具體影響將因天氣事件、市場規模而異它們發生的地點和時間。這不是什麼新鮮事，我們過去經常看到它。

Changes in economic factors can be as significant. But generally, the effects are felt more slowly across the business. In 2023, we saw significant weather impacts in 2 of our largest year-round markets, Arizona and California, which were most prevalent later in the quarter where the effects are more pronounced. At the same time, we saw and expected the expiration of COVID tailwinds, which favorably impacted 2020 through the 2022 season. Results -- and were contemplated in our previous guidance. Individually, each will cause notable variances and results on a year-over-year basis. But when they stack up in very large year-round markets and are combined with return to normal buying patterns in the rest of the markets, it can meaningfully change our operating results in the short term.

經濟因素的變化可能同樣重要。但總的來說，整個企業感受到的影響要慢得多。 2023 年，我們在亞利桑那州和加利福尼亞這兩個最大的全年市場看到了重大的天氣影響，這兩個市場在本季度後期最為普遍，影響更為明顯。與此同時，我們看到並預計到 COVID 順風的結束，這對 2020 年到 2022 賽季產生了有利影響。結果——並在我們之前的指南中進行了考慮。單獨來看，每一個都會導致顯著的差異和結果逐年增長。但是，當它們在非常大的全年市場上堆積起來，並與其他市場恢復正常的購買模式相結合時，它可以在短期內顯著改變我們的經營業績。

We want to remind our investors that the fundamentals of this business remain unchanged over the long term. Pools and outdoor living remains highly desirable. The southern migration will continue, and the resilience of our industry, which is driven by the installed base of pools, is very much -- as true today as it was pre-COVID, just larger and more valuable. Flexible work-for-home arrangements remain in place for many pool and homeowners.

我們想提醒我們的投資者，該業務的基本面長期保持不變。游泳池和戶外生活仍然非常受歡迎。南方遷移將繼續，我們行業的彈性，由池的安裝基礎驅動，非常 - 今天和 COVID 之前一樣真實，只是更大，更有價值。對於許多游泳池和房主來說，靈活的在家工作安排仍然存在。

The inflation that has made its way through the channel is here to stay, making the size of the industry larger. The installed base of products continue to grow and age. And the opportunity to upgrade and modernize existing pools and backyard continues. And our ability to take share based on our unmatched competitive profile gets stronger every year.

通過該渠道的通貨膨脹將繼續存在，使該行業的規模更大。產品的安裝基礎繼續增長和老化。升級和現代化現有游泳池和後院的機會仍在繼續。我們憑藉無可比擬的競爭優勢獲得市場份額的能力逐年增強。

Taking a short-term view of the business and reacting to short-term issues like weather with structural changes or deviating from our proven strategic plan would be a disservice to our investors. We remain committed to being the best supplier in the industry. We see the value in investing in our capabilities to broaden our product and service offering that will enable us to continue share gains while remaining focused on discipline and execution and capital allocation.

以短期的眼光看待業務並對短期問題做出反應，例如結構性變化的天氣或偏離我們經過驗證的戰略計劃，將對我們的投資者造成傷害。我們始終致力於成為行業中最好的供應商。我們看到了投資於我們擴大產品和服務範圍的能力的價值，這將使我們能夠繼續分享收益，同時繼續專注於紀律、執行和資本配置。

The weather issues will pass, but their effects on the first quarter results will mostly stay. The economic pressures related to interest rates will affect new pool construction in the short term, but the desirability of pools and outdoor living will remain strong in the long term.

天氣問題將會過去，但它們對第一季度業績的影響將主要存在。與利率相關的經濟壓力將在短期內影響新游泳池的建設，但從長遠來看，游泳池和戶外生活的需求將保持強勁。

Our installed base will continue to grow in size and value. Asset creation continues. Our investment in our people and our focus on being the employer of choice is ongoing. And helping our customers grow and be more efficient is what we focus on each day and gives us the confidence that short-term issues that we see will have no bearing on the continued and long-term success of our business.

我們的安裝基礎將在規模和價值上繼續增長。資產創造仍在繼續。我們對員工的投資以及我們對成為首選雇主的關註一直在持續。幫助我們的客戶成長和提高效率是我們每天關注的重點，這讓我們相信，我們看到的短期問題不會影響我們業務的持續和長期成功。

With this in mind, we have elected to lower our guidance and increase the size of our estimated range for 2023 from $14.62 to $16.12 to account for the recent challenges but remain incredibly proud of what the team has done and very confident in the future.

考慮到這一點，我們選擇降低我們的指導，並將 2023 年的估計範圍從 14.62 美元增加到 16.12 美元，以應對最近的挑戰，但我們仍然對團隊所做的事情感到無比自豪，並對未來充滿信心。

I will now turn the call over to Melanie for her financial commentary.

我現在將把電話轉給梅蘭妮，聽取她的財務評論。

Thank you, Pete, and good morning, everyone. We have exceeded $1 billion in sales in the first quarter for the third year in a row as we continue to see the cumulative 30% to 35% inflation realized over the last several years remain a part of our base.

謝謝皮特，大家早上好。我們連續第三年在第一季度的銷售額超過 10 億美元，因為我們繼續看到過去幾年實現的累計 30% 至 35% 的通貨膨脹仍然是我們基礎的一部分。

Our first quarter revenue decrease of 15% compared to first quarter 2022 where we realized 33% top line growth and 26% base business growth and still represents a 14% increase over 2021. Inflation is in line with our expectations, and the pricing that took place at the beginning of the season on equipment remains intact. At this time, we are not aware of any additional price increases to come through during the season.

與 2022 年第一季度相比，我們第一季度的收入下降了 15%，我們實現了 33% 的收入增長和 26% 的基礎業務增長，但仍比 2021 年增長了 14%。通貨膨脹符合我們的預期，定價也符合我們的預期賽季初裝備上的位置保持完好。目前，我們不知道這個季節還會有任何額外的價格上漲。

Chemical inflation overall was around 4% for the quarter, with trichlor pricing seeing some pressures offset by increases in other chemical product lines. Gross margin of 30.6% was 110 basis points less than prior year and reflects a strong margin for the first quarter from a historical comparison standpoint. Prior year gross margin included a benefit from multiple price changes amid higher levels of inflation. As expected, first quarter gross margin benefited from the sell-through of our lower-cost inventory investments made last year and also reflects the higher base we would anticipate toward our full year longer-term guidance of 30% gross margins, which includes the continuing benefit from acquisition-related accretion.

本季度化學品整體通脹率約為 4%，三氯定價的一些壓力被其他化學品產品線的上漲所抵消。毛利率為 30.6%，比去年同期低 110 個基點，從歷史比較的角度來看，第一季度的毛利率很高。上一年的毛利率包括在較高通脹水平下多次價格變動帶來的收益。正如預期的那樣，第一季度毛利率受益於我們去年進行的低成本庫存投資的銷售，也反映了我們預計全年 30% 毛利率的長期指導基數更高，其中包括持續的受益於收購相關的增長。

Operating expenses increased $12.5 million or 6% over prior year. Fixed costs impact our first and fourth quarters more significantly as the higher sales quarters of second and third provide us more ability to leverage nonvariable costs and is also where we would typically see higher correlations to sales for volume-related expenses.

營業費用比上年增加 1250 萬美元或 6%。固定成本對我們第一季度和第四季度的影響更為顯著，因為第二和第三季度較高的銷售季度使我們能夠更好地利用非可變成本，而且我們通常會看到與銷量相關的費用與銷售的相關性更高。

During the quarter, we continued to invest in strategic projects that we anticipate will drive long-term growth and profitability, specifically those around our customer experience offerings.

在本季度，我們繼續投資於我們預計將推動長期增長和盈利的戰略項目，特別是那些圍繞我們的客戶體驗產品的項目。

Our overall costs related to facilities, freight, insurance, IT, advertising and marketing and people have increased from a year ago, and we are focused on increasing productivity in the network to offset the inflationary increases we are seeing in these areas, therefore, limiting the total year-over-year expense dollar increases.

我們與設施、運費、保險、IT、廣告和營銷以及人員相關的總體成本比一年前有所增加，我們專注於提高網絡的生產力以抵消我們在這些領域看到的通貨膨脹增長，因此，限制總費用同比增加。

We have also added 5 new locations during the quarter, which will increase our overall capacity and ability to gain market share in expanded geographic areas. These new locations will be an initial drag on earnings and represent higher operating cost growth but will generally be neutral to earnings in year 2 and generate normalized profitability by year 4.

我們還在本季度增加了 5 個新地點，這將提高我們的整體能力和在擴大的地理區域中獲得市場份額的能力。這些新地點最初將拖累收益並代表更高的運營成本增長，但通常不會影響第 2 年的收益，並在第 4 年產生正常的盈利能力。

For the full year, we still plan to open the 10 new locations anticipated as our longer-term view has not been impacted by short-term market considerations. This is in addition to a similar number of franchise locations to be added as part of the Pinch A Penny network.

對於全年，我們仍計劃開設預期的 10 個新地點，因為我們的長期觀點並未受到短期市場考慮因素的影響。這是作為 Pinch A Penny 網絡的一部分添加的類似數量的特許經營地點之外的補充。

We realized operating margin for first quarter of 12.1%, which was consistent with the 2021 first quarter margin and a meaningful step-up over the prior 5 years as we have become larger and more efficient. The quarters in the shoulder of the season provide less of an opportunity for leverage, but the results achieved in the first quarter of 2023 are a good indication of the benefit we would expect to see longer term as we continue to leverage our scale for increased profitability.

我們實現了第一季度 12.1% 的營業利潤率，這與 2021 年第一季度的利潤率一致，並且隨著我們規模和效率的提高，與過去 5 年相比有了顯著的提升。季末的幾個季度提供的槓桿機會較少，但 2023 年第一季度取得的成果很好地表明，隨著我們繼續利用我們的規模來提高盈利能力，我們預計將在長期內看到收益.

Interest expense for the quarter increased $10.6 million over prior year as we saw our average interest rate increase from 1.5% in prior year to 4.8% for the current quarter. We have held our debt outstanding consistent with year-end while also making $44 million in open market share repurchases year-to-date. We continue to remain under our stated target leverage ratio and have more than adequate capacity to fund our capital priorities.

本季度的利息支出比去年同期增加了 1060 萬美元，因為我們看到我們的平均利率從去年同期的 1.5% 上升到本季度的 4.8%。我們的未償還債務與年底持平，同時今年迄今還進行了 4400 萬美元的公開市場股票回購。我們繼續保持在我們既定的目標槓桿率之下，並且有足夠的能力為我們的資本優先事項提供資金。

Next, I'll discuss our balance sheet and cash flows. Days sales outstanding was 26.5 days compared to 26.4 days in 2022. Net receivables decreased consistent with overall sales changes, and we continue to utilize our credit function as a valuable resource to our customers as we work with them to support their sales activity.

接下來，我將討論我們的資產負債表和現金流量。銷售未償天數為 26.5 天，而 2022 年為 26.4 天。應收賬款淨額的下降與整體銷售變化一致，我們繼續利用我們的信貸功能作為客戶的寶貴資源，因為我們與客戶合作以支持他們的銷售活動。

Inventory level increases have continued to improve from third quarter 2022 when we saw supply chains and lead times normalize. We have reduced our base business inventory growth from 43% year-over-year in third quarter 2022 to 18% in fourth quarter 2022 and again to 3% at first quarter 2023. Our focus on inventory is by sale center and by SKU, which ensures that we have optimal levels of inventory and can provide the highest level of service for our customers.

從 2022 年第三季度開始，我們看到供應鍊和交貨時間正常化，庫存水平的增長持續改善。我們已將基礎業務庫存增長率從 2022 年第三季度的 43% 降至 2022 年第四季度的 18%，並在 2023 年第一季度再次降至 3%。我們對庫存的關注重點是銷售中心和 SKU，這確保我們擁有最佳的庫存水平，並能為我們的客戶提供最高水平的服務。

We are making progress on moving through the safety stock inventory levels we had at the same time last year and are continuing to target the end of the season as a return to normal inventory levels.

我們在去年同期的安全庫存水平上取得了進展，並繼續將本季末作為恢復正常庫存水平的目標。

Our efforts on managing working capital are evident in the improvement in cash flows from operations of $311 million over first quarter last year. We are expecting higher payments in the second and third quarter on vendor early buy seasonal payment terms compared to last year where these programs were generally not offered. However, full year cash flow from operations is expected to exceed $800 million.

我們在管理營運資金方面的努力從去年第一季度 3.11 億美元的運營現金流改善中可見一斑。與去年通常不提供這些計劃相比，我們預計第二和第三季度供應商提前購買季節性付款條款的付款會更高。然而，全年運營現金流預計將超過 8 億美元。

We completed $44 million of share buybacks during the quarter and have $186 million remaining under our share repurchase program authorization. We typically review our capital allocation plan with our Board of Directors at the time of our upcoming annual meeting and will announce any changes shortly thereafter.

我們在本季度完成了 4400 萬美元的股票回購，根據我們的股票回購計劃授權，還有 1.86 億美元剩餘。我們通常會在即將召開的年度會議上與董事會一起審查我們的資本分配計劃，並會在其後不久宣布任何變更。

We have updated our EPS guidance for the full year 2023. Our new range is $14.62 to $16.12, including the $0.12 ASU tax benefit realized to date. Our range considers the results to date, and at the low end, impact from a mild recessionary environment.

我們更新了 2023 年全年的 EPS 指導。我們的新範圍是 14.62 美元到 16.12 美元，包括迄今為止實現的 0.12 美元 ASU 稅收優惠。我們的範圍考慮了迄今為止的結果，並在低端考慮了溫和衰退環境的影響。

Continuing unfavorable weather throughout the remainder of the year or awarding economic comment could impact our expected outlook. We are now expecting to see sales compared to 2022 to be down mid-single digits versus a flat to down 3% from our initial guidance. Based on current trends, it is possible that new pool construction could decline up to 30% in view of the number of permits issued year-to-date and the less available billable days.

在今年餘下時間持續不利的天氣或授予經濟評論可能會影響我們的預期前景。我們現在預計，與 2022 年相比，銷售額將下降中個位數，而與我們最初的指導相比持平至下降 3%。根據目前的趨勢，鑑於年初至今頒發的許可證數量和可用計費天數減少，新池建設可能會下降 30%。

Maintenance revenue is also expected to see a 1% lower increase than previously expected from the use of less consumables stemming from the unfavorable weather in the first quarter. Our overall expectations related to renovation and model activity, our Horizon business and Europe remained relatively unchanged. We continue to pursue 4 to 5 tuck-in acquisitions for the year with a minimal impact from the current year results.

由於第一季度不利的天氣導致消耗品的使用減少，預計維護收入的增幅也將比之前預期的低 1%。我們對翻新和模型活動、我們的 Horizon 業務和歐洲的總體預期保持相對不變。我們繼續在今年進行 4 到 5 次收購，對當年業績的影響最小。

We completed our first acquisition of 2023 by purchasing Pro-Water Irrigation and Landscape Supply, adding 2 locations to our Horizon network during the quarter.

我們通過購買 Pro-Water Irrigation and Landscape Supply 完成了 2023 年的首次收購，在本季度為我們的 Horizon 網絡增加了 2 個地點。

Looking at the trends on base business growth last year, we saw a 26% growth in the first quarter, followed by 10% growth in Q2 and Q3 and modest growth in Q4. The largest year-over-year impact is expected to be seen in the first quarter and first half. We have 1 less selling day in the third quarter and for the full year compared to 2022.

從去年的基礎業務增長趨勢來看，我們看到第一季度增長了 26%，隨後第二季度和第三季度增長了 10%，第四季度增長溫和。預計第一季度和上半年的同比影響最大。與 2022 年相比，我們第三季度和全年的銷售日減少了 1 個。

We continue to forecast gross profit margin for the full year in line with our longer-term guidance of around 30%. Second quarter will be a difficult comparison as prior year gross margins increased 150 basis points from 2021. So we would expect the 2023 margin for second quarter to be slightly higher than the full year projection as is normal for the second quarter.

我們繼續預測全年的毛利率與我們 30% 左右的長期指引一致。第二季度將是一個艱難的比較，因為去年的毛利率比 2021 年增加了 150 個基點。因此我們預計第二季度的 2023 年利潤率將略高於全年預測，這對第二季度來說是正常的。

Inflationary pressures on operating costs will be partially offset by our continued efforts in capacity creation and our ability to manage variable costs. Growth on expenses will be significantly less than the inflationary cost inputs we are challenged with. Our management teams will make decisions to manage costs while continuing to invest in valuable programs and team members that will be necessary to support our long-term growth.

運營成本的通脹壓力將被我們在產能創造方面的持續努力和我們管理可變成本的能力部分抵消。支出的增長將大大低於我們面臨的通貨膨脹成本投入。我們的管理團隊將做出管理成本的決策，同時繼續投資支持我們長期增長所必需的有價值的計劃和團隊成員。

Produced volumes would allow for more field focus on our ongoing operational projects such as expansion of our priority pick express order program in replenishment, velocity flooding and delivery optimization. These initiatives will increase available capacities longer term across the network without more significant capital spend.

生產量將使我們能夠更多地關注我們正在進行的運營項目，例如擴大我們在補貨、速度氾濫和交付優化方面的優先揀選快遞訂單計劃。這些舉措將增加整個網絡的可用容量，而無需更多的資本支出。

There have not been any changes to our expectations on interest expense for the full year. We still anticipate interest expense will range from $50 million to $60 million. With exceptional cash flow generation, we expect debt balances to decrease throughout the year. We also plan to complete the transition from LIBOR to SOFR on our available rate debt agreements before the end of second quarter. This change will not materially impact our results or financial position. Our overall borrowing rate continues to benefit from the portion of our debt currently tied to fixed rate interest rate swap agreements.

我們對全年利息支出的預期沒有任何變化。我們仍然預計利息支出將在 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元之間。憑藉出色的現金流生成，我們預計全年債務餘額將減少。我們還計劃在第二季度末之前完成可用利率債務協議從 LIBOR 到 SOFR 的過渡。這一變化不會對我們的業績或財務狀況產生重大影響。我們的整體借款利率繼續受益於我們目前與固定利率掉期協議掛鉤的部分債務。

Estimated weighted average shares outstanding that will be applied to net income will be approximately 39.5 million shares at each remaining quarter and 39.5 million for the full year. This number was 39.4 million shares at March 31. We will update our forecast quarterly to reflect the impact of any future share repurchases.

預計將應用於淨收入的加權平均流通股在每個剩餘季度約為 3950 萬股，全年約為 3950 萬股。截至 3 月 31 日，這一數字為 3940 萬股。我們將每季度更新一次預測，以反映任何未來股票回購的影響。

As we continue to focus on our 4 key operating priorities, our ability to integrate our ESG framework into those priorities has expanded. We expect the benefits not only to expand our efforts around sustainability and governance, but also to assist in our capacity creation efforts as we utilize the same practices to grow our operating margins over the long term. Our second annual corporate responsibility report will be issued during the quarter, and we'll provide more detail on what we have accomplished.

隨著我們繼續專注於我們的 4 個關鍵運營優先事項，我們將 ESG 框架整合到這些優先事項中的能力得到了擴展。我們預計這些好處不僅會擴大我們在可持續性和治理方面的努力，而且還會在我們利用相同的做法來增加我們的長期運營利潤率時幫助我們進行能力建設。我們的第二份年度企業責任報告將在本季度發布，我們將提供更多關於我們所取得成就的細節。

Our first quarter 2023 reflects the transition period as we exit time of our characteristic growth, coupled with supply chain disruptions only to navigate challenging weather and macroeconomic conditions while generating strong current year operating results and focusing on the long-term stable growth nature of our business.

我們的 2023 年第一季度反映了過渡期，因為我們退出了我們特色增長的時間，加上供應鏈中斷，只是為了應對充滿挑戰的天氣和宏觀經濟條件，同時產生強勁的本年度經營業績，並專注於我們業務的長期穩定增長性質.

We will now begin our Q&A session.

我們現在將開始我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Ryan Merkel 和 William Blair。

First off, can you comment on trends so far in April? And specifically, I'm wondering how California and Arizona, if that's bouncing back at all.

首先，您能評論一下 4 月份到目前為止的趨勢嗎？具體來說，我想知道加利福尼亞州和亞利桑那州是如何反彈的。

Yes. The beginning of the month of April, Ryan, the weather wasn't all that much different. But as the month has progressed -- or California and Arizona, we have -- we've seen improvement. On the construction side, think about it this way, between construction and renovation. In California, if the yards are still soaked and the builders can't build, that's simply going to forestall the construction. Renovation, as long as there's a pool there, the renovation work can typically work regardless of temperature and range. So we're seeing some improvement in that area.

是的。四月初，瑞安，天氣並沒有太大的不同。但隨著月份的進展——或者我們已經在加利福尼亞州和亞利桑那州——我們看到了改善。在建設方面，這樣想，介於建設和改造之間。在加利福尼亞州，如果院子裡仍然濕漉漉的，而建築商無法建造，那隻會阻止施工。裝修，只要有游泳池，裝修工作通常可以進行，不受溫度和範圍的影響。因此，我們在該領域看到了一些改進。

As it relates to the maintenance spend, maintenance -- the biggest component on maintenance, as you know, is chemicals. Chemicals are really going to be tied to water temperature. So we're encouraged that the sun is out. Temperatures are heating up. And if you look this week and next week, Arizona is going to be in the mid- to high 90s. So we like the trend that we think things are turning in our favor.

由於它與維護支出、維護有關——如您所知，維護的最大組成部分是化學品。化學品確實與水溫有關。所以我們很高興太陽出來了。氣溫正在升溫。如果你看一下這周和下週，亞利桑那州將處於 90 年代中後期。所以我們喜歡我們認為事情正在朝著對我們有利的方向發展的趨勢。

Got it. That's helpful. And then you changed the guidance for the year to down mid-single digits. Is this what you're expecting in the second quarter? And really what I'm getting at is, can we be confident that the first quarter is mostly weather versus demand falling apart in a bigger way?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後你將今年的指導更改為中個位數。這是您對第二季度的預期嗎？我真正要說的是，我們能否確信第一季度主要是天氣而不是需求以更大的方式崩潰？

Yes. I think we would -- we're very confident that first quarter was significantly driven by the weather. And I say that because if I look at the results in Texas, which in my prepared remarks -- and I also mentioned Florida, where we had pretty good weather, in those areas, the business did well and was very much in line with expectations. So we've never seen the water problem that we have in California, and combine that with very cold temperature. The same thing in Arizona, the Phoenix market has had more rain than I think they've seen in a 10-year period before they had anything like this.

是的。我認為我們會 - 我們非常有信心第一季度在很大程度上受到天氣的推動。我之所以這麼說，是因為如果我看看德克薩斯州的結果，在我準備好的發言中——我還提到了佛羅里達州，那里天氣很好，在這些地區，業務表現良好，非常符合預期.因此，我們從未見過加利福尼亞的水資源問題，並將其與極冷的溫度結合起來。在亞利桑那州也是如此，鳳凰城市場的降雨量比我認為他們在發生這種情況之前 10 年內看到的還要多。

So I would tell you that in those areas, very confident that it's weather-related. If I look at the seasonal markets, it really -- if you look at the quarter in total in the seasonal markets, it doesn't look terrible, but you really have to look at it in context of when the weather happened. So in the seasonal markets, the beginning of the quarter, actually, the weather wasn't bad. The weather deteriorated in the seasonal markets towards the end, which simply delayed the opening of pools and delayed construction projects. So I think that we're comfortable that the weather played a major role in the way the season is opening up.

所以我會告訴你，在那些地區，非常有信心它與天氣有關。如果我看一下季節性市場，真的——如果你看季節性市場的整個季度，它看起來並不糟糕，但你真的必須在天氣發生的背景下看它。因此，在季節性市場中，實際上，本季度初的天氣還不錯。季節性市場的天氣在接近尾聲時惡化，這只是推遲了游泳池的開放和建設項目。所以我認為我們很高興天氣在這個季節的開放方式中發揮了重要作用。

And then just on the second quarter, is mid-single digits kind of the right framework? Or how should we think about the cadence of the year?

然後就在第二季度，中個位數是正確的框架嗎？或者我們應該如何思考一年的節奏？

Yes. So our expectation just for kind of the revenue over the year is not changed significantly from where we talked about when we gave kind of our original guidance. Although, obviously, we didn't have the impact of the weather on the first quarter. So from a comp standpoint, when you're just doing the comparison, the first quarter base business last year was a 26% growth, and then that was only 10% for second quarter. So when you look at the comparison for second quarter, it's not as difficult as a comparison. So our original guidance was that we would see a larger decline kind of in the first half of the year, and then that would move to kind of modest growth for the second half. And so we would expect that to play out pretty similarly to that just with the larger decline in the first half because of the weather on the first quarter.

是的。因此，我們對全年收入的預期與我們給出最初指導時所說的相比沒有太大變化。雖然，很明顯，我們在第一季度沒有受到天氣的影響。所以從比較的角度來看，當你只是做比較時，去年第一季度的基礎業務增長了 26%，而第二季度只有 10%。所以當你看第二季度的比較時，它並不像比較那麼困難。所以我們最初的指導是我們會在今年上半年看到更大的下降，然後在下半年轉向溫和增長。因此，我們預計這將與上半年由於第一季度的天氣而出現較大跌幅的結果非常相似。

Our next question will come from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is thinking a bit about the changes in the lending environment, especially as it relates to regional banks during the quarter, do you think that that's had any implications on consumers' willingness or the ability to take on new pools? And also with the projects that were delayed in the quarter because of weather, are you seeing that they're still in the backlog? Or has the cancellation rate changed at all there?

我的第一個問題是考慮一下貸款環境的變化，尤其是當它與本季度的區域銀行相關時，您認為這對消費者的意願或接受新資金池的能力有任何影響嗎？還有由於天氣原因在本季度推遲的項目，您是否看到它們仍在積壓中？還是那裡的取消率發生了變化？

Very good question. So I would tell you that as it relates to consumer lending and the banks and the questions around that, certainly, that's nothing that we had contemplated as we were looking at how the year was going to play out. What I would tell you is that there's a couple of common themes. One is that we have always said for -- at least for the last 12 months that we're seeing pressure in at the lower-end pools. But you have to consider with lower-end pools is that the rate of financing versus cash buyers goes up significantly. The entry-level pool is much more higher percentage of financing larger projects, much lower percentage that are financed versus paid for with cash.

很好的問題。所以我會告訴你，因為它與消費者貸款和銀行以及圍繞它的問題有關，當然，這不是我們在考慮今年的結果時所考慮的。我要告訴你的是，有幾個共同的主題。一是我們一直在說——至少在過去的 12 個月裡，我們看到了低端礦池的壓力。但是你必須考慮低端池是融資與現金買家的比率顯著上升。入門級資金池為大型項目融資的比例要高得多，用現金融資的比例要低得多。

So the way the year is playing out, the uncertainty in the lending environment is exacerbating an already pronounced issue with entry-level pools, but I don't really think it's affecting much at, let's call it, the mid-level and certainly not at the upper end.

因此，今年的發展方式是，貸款環境的不確定性加劇了入門級資金池已經很明顯的問題，但我真的認為這不會對中級資金池產生太大影響，當然也不會在上端。

Okay. That's helpful. And then can you talk a bit about the maintenance part of the business? How are you thinking of the share gains that you've seen there in the last couple of years, the mix shift that has benefited the business? Has there been any change in that in the last couple of months?

好的。這很有幫助。然後你能談談業務的維護部分嗎？您如何看待過去幾年您在那裡看到的份額增長，以及使業務受益的組合轉變？在過去的幾個月裡，這有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. And I apologize, I didn't respond to the second part of your first question, I'll touch on. So your question about cancellations because of weather delays, we've not really seen that. The cancellation rate really hasn't changed. I don't think it's significant. So people that generally put down deposits and they were put off by the weather have essentially already arranged their financing. It's still very early in the season. So if your pool happens 30 days, 45 days or 60 days later than it was anticipated, I think you're still going to have a fairly happy homeowner.

是的。抱歉，我沒有回答你第一個問題的第二部分，我會繼續。所以你關於因天氣延誤而取消的問題，我們還沒有真正看到。取消率確實沒有改變。我認為這並不重要。因此，那些普遍存入存款並因天氣原因而推遲的人基本上已經安排了融資。這個季節還很早。因此，如果您的游泳池比預期晚 30 天、45 天或 60 天，我認為您仍然會有一個相當幸福的房主。

Your next question as it relates to the maintenance and share gain, part of our value proposition has to do with providing an absolutely unparalleled customer experience. That has to do with the locations of our sales centers, the inventory profiles that we carry, the speed at which we're able to get people in and out of our business, the knowledge of our salespeople and certainly our B2B tool with POOL360 helps. All of those things, right, along with our focus on execution, have allowed us to continue to gain share in that we provide what we believe to be best-in-class service.

您的下一個問題與維護和份額收益有關，我們價值主張的一部分與提供絕對無與倫比的客戶體驗有關。這與我們銷售中心的位置、我們攜帶的庫存概況、我們能夠讓人們進出我們的業務的速度、我們的銷售人員的知識以及我們帶有 POOL360 的 B2B 工具當然有幫助.所有這些，正確的，以及我們對執行的關注，使我們能夠繼續獲得份額，因為我們提供我們認為是一流的服務。

I don't really think that that's going to change. POOLCORP has historically gained share. We typically's don't give that share back. Now we can't tell you that in an individual market, there may be a customer here or there. Certainly, that has been part of normal operations forever. But in aggregate, we believe that the share gains will continue.

我真的不認為這會改變。 POOLCORP 的份額歷來有所增加。我們通常不會返還該份額。現在我們不能告訴你，在一個單獨的市場中，這里或那裡可能有一個客戶。當然，這一直是正常操作的一部分。但總的來說，我們認為股票收益將繼續。

Our next question will come from David Manthey with Baird.

我們的下一個問題將來自 David Manthey 和 Baird。

First question is on the new 2023 top line algebra. I believe you said new construction down 30%, maintenance down 1%, renovation down 10% to 15%. And I didn't catch what you said on green. Could you just make sure I have those numbers right?

第一個問題是關於新的 2023 頂線代數。我相信你說新建築下降 30%，維護下降 1%，翻新下降 10% 到 15%。我沒聽清你在綠色上說的話。你能確定我的數字是正確的嗎？

Yes. So for the Horizon business, we didn't make any changes within our top line assumptions to what we had put out at the beginning of the year. So that will stay at a decline of 5% to 10% is the range on the grain business.

是的。因此，對於 Horizon 業務，我們沒有對今年年初提出的頂線假設做出任何改變。因此，將保持在 5% 到 10% 的下降幅度是糧食業務的範圍。

Okay. And the other numbers were right?

好的。其他數字是對的嗎？

Well, and the only thing just to mention, the -- on the maintenance side, that was the volume-related versus our expectation on inflation still remains around 4% for the full year.

好吧，唯一要提到的是，在維護方面，與我們對全年通貨膨脹的預期相比，與數量相關的通貨膨脹率仍然保持在 4% 左右。

Okay, 4% for the year. And on that 30% decline in new pools is that revenues or volumes that you're implying that with the bottom end dropping out that ASPs could actually be higher?

好吧，今年4%。在新池下降 30% 的情況下，你暗示的收入或數量是指隨著底端的下降，ASP 實際上可能會更高？

Yes. I think -- so we think that the industry -- and again, still very, very early to call the year, right? Because what I last year was declining permits sequentially quarter-over-quarter. And as I mentioned, the permits from fourth quarter to first quarter have actually improved.

是的。我認為 - 所以我們認為這個行業 - 再一次，仍然非常非常早地宣布這一年，對吧？因為我去年的情況是逐季下降許可。正如我提到的，從第四季度到第一季度的許可實際上有所改善。

So today, I would tell you that permit activity implies a 30% decline. I think what I also mentioned is that we have our own internal measurement, which is what our sales are into that channel by looking at specific products that are used only in new pool construction. I think that our performance is better than the market. And I think -- so the market -- permit data today would show minus 30%, and I think our performance as we measure it in new pool construction would be minus 25%.

所以今天，我會告訴你許可活動意味著 30% 的下降。我想我還提到的是，我們有自己的內部衡量標準，即通過查看僅用於新泳池建設的特定產品，我們對該渠道的銷售額。我認為我們的表現優於市場。我認為——所以市場——今天的許可數據將顯示負 30%，我認為我們在新池建設中衡量的表現將是負 25%。

And yes, if the number of -- if you look in aggregate the number of pools, the number of pools are going to be affected much more dramatically at the lower end, and the higher end would be more stable. So logical to think that the ASP on an average -- on the average pool for 2023 would be higher than 2022.

是的，如果數量——如果你看一下池的總數，池的數量將在低端受到更大的影響，而高端會更穩定。認為 2023 年平均 ASP 會高於 2022 年是合乎邏輯的。

Okay. And then second, on SG&A, it seems like what you're saying is in a declining top line environment, you hope to offset the investments that you're making with your capacity creation and efficiency efforts. Is that to say that you're budgeting SG&A dollars to be flat for the year?

好的。其次，在 SG&A 方面，你所說的似乎是在收入下降的環境中，你希望通過你的能力創造和效率努力來抵消你正在進行的投資。那是說您將全年的 SG&A 美元預算持平嗎？

So the SG&A dollars will follow volume. So kind of within our range, it could be -- you could look at it as kind of negative 2 to plus 2 compared to last year, depending upon where top line falls. The key to that is when you look at first quarter, we talked about some of the activities that we had related to some of our customer events and our investments in our POOL360 technology and some advertising and marketing things that we've been focused on. And really, first quarter gives us the ability to manage those special projects from a strategic standpoint.

所以 SG&A 美元將跟隨數量。所以在我們的範圍內，它可能是——與去年相比，你可以把它看作是負 2 到正 2，這取決於頂線下降的位置。關鍵是當你看第一季度時，我們談到了一些與我們的一些客戶活動相關的活動，以及我們對 POOL360 技術的投資，以及我們一直關注的一些廣告和營銷活動。實際上，第一季度讓我們有能力從戰略角度管理這些特殊項目。

So when we get to second and third quarter, that's when you're going to see the larger increases from staffing, from freight over time. So those are really where we see a lot of those more variable expenses come into play. So we would certainly expect that the expense growth, when you look at kind of the 6% in first quarter going down to something significantly less than that for the full year, that we would see that leverage come through in the second and third quarters.

因此，當我們進入第二季度和第三季度時，隨著時間的推移，你會看到人員配備和貨運的大幅增長。因此，這些確實是我們看到很多可變費用發揮作用的地方。因此，我們當然希望費用增長，當你看到第一季度的 6% 下降到遠低於全年的水平時，我們會看到第二和第三季度的槓桿作用。

Our next question will come from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

So I think I caught -- I heard you say $60 million to $70 million impact from the weather in the quarter. And if we take that out of the base business decline, you're still down sort of around 11%. And I think before, you had said mid-single to high singles was your expectation for the decline in the quarter. Is there a way to bridge the rest of that gap? Or am I thinking about that incorrectly?

所以我想我抓住了 - 我聽說你說本季度的天氣影響了 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元。如果我們將其從基礎業務下滑中剔除，您仍然下降了大約 11%。我想之前，您曾說過中單到高單是您對本季度下降的預期。有沒有辦法彌合其餘的差距？還是我想錯了？

So what are you starting with the base business, it's also going to be impacted by the new pool construction side as well. And then we also had the early buys where last year's first quarter benefited about 2% from early buys.

那麼你從基礎業務開始做什麼，它也會受到新泳池建設方面的影響。然後我們也有早期購買，去年第一季度從早期購買中受益約 2%。

Okay. And so then incorporating this mid-teens decline in the first quarter and your update to the full year, it looks like really only about a point of growth comes out of the remaining 3 quarters. Is that also sort of the right way to think about the update in light of what you did in the first quarter?

好的。因此，然後結合第一季度的這種十幾歲的下降和你對全年的更新，看起來剩下的三個季度實際上只有大約一個增長點。根據您在第一季度所做的事情，這也是考慮更新的正確方法嗎？

So we think kind of the top level of our range versus the bottom level of the range, there is some variability in kind of our top line expectations. So depending upon which way you model to, you'll get a point or a couple of points.

因此，我們認為我們範圍的最高水平與範圍的最低水平，我們的最高預期存在一些可變性。因此，根據您建模的方式，您會得到一分或兩分。

Our next question will come from Andrew Carter with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Andrew Carter。

Just wanted to ask -- I didn't catch it if you gave a product inflation number for the quarter. Have your expectations -- are they the same as before on that? I know you said equipment pricing. What about chemical pricing? What are you seeing there? And how does kind of the chemical in that down 11% in the quarter break out between price and volume?

只是想問——如果你給出了本季度的產品通脹數字，我沒聽清。你有什麼期望——他們在這方面和以前一樣嗎？我知道你說的是設備定價。化學品定價呢？你在那裡看到什麼？本季度下跌 11% 的化學品在價格和數量之間的表現如何？

So inflation overall for the quarter was a little bit higher than the 4% that we're expecting for the year because we did have some carryover when you're doing just a comparison first quarter over first quarter. So I would say 4% to 5% total inflation for the quarter. With that, the equipment is on the higher end. Inflation for chemicals actually wind up right around 4%. So when you look at the negative 11%, it's plus 4% for inflation and negative 15% for volumes as it relates to the weather.

因此，本季度的整體通貨膨脹率略高於我們今年預期的 4%，因為當您僅對第一季度與第一季度進行比較時，我們確實有一些結轉。所以我會說本季度的總通貨膨脹率為 4% 到 5%。這樣一來，設備就處於高端。化學品的通貨膨脹率實際上上升了 4% 左右。因此，當您查看負 11% 時，通貨膨脹增加 4%，與天氣相關的體積減少 15%。

But our overall expectation for the year on inflation is still going to be about 4%, so we'll catch a little bit higher at the beginning of the year. And then as we get to fourth quarter, we'll see that moderate from a comparison standpoint -- built into that 4% on the chemicals. We are seeing some pressures on the trichlor, but that is being offset and really offset to the positive because we saw the 4% for the year -- or for the quarter, excuse me, on other product categories.

但我們對今年通貨膨脹率的總體預期仍將在 4% 左右，因此我們會在年初稍高一些。然後當我們進入第四季度時，從比較的角度來看，我們會看到溫和的——內置在化學品的 4% 中。我們看到了三氯的一些壓力，但這種壓力正在被抵消，並且確實抵消了積極因素，因為我們看到了今年的 4% - 或者本季度，對不起，其他產品類別。

Got it. And with some pressure on trichlor that the initial guidance did contemplate the packaging initiatives from Porpoise coming online, offsetting that, is that still the case in terms of that? Or do you expect greater productivity from that side? Or -- and do you have any worry about where chemical deflation could go on trichlor potentially disrupting the product margin for the year?

知道了。由於對三氯的一些壓力，最初的指導確實考慮了 Porpoise 上線的包裝計劃，抵消了這一點，就此而言，情況仍然如此嗎？或者您期望從那方面獲得更高的生產力？或者——您是否擔心三氯化學通貨緊縮可能會破壞當年的產品利潤率？

Yes. (inaudible) you think about the SunCoast chemical business and our ability to package, that -- the facility doesn't have capacity to do the entire business, right? So we actually are blending -- we're blending what Porpoise does for us or the SunCoast does for us with what we're purchasing in the open market.

是的。 （聽不清）你想想 SunCoast 的化學業務和我們的包裝能力，該設施沒有能力完成整個業務，對嗎？所以我們實際上是在混合——我們將 Porpoise 為我們所做的或 SunCoast 為我們所做的與我們在公開市場上購買的東西混合在一起。

So as the blend together, I think we are better off than if we were buying everything in the open market. What I would tell you is that the trichlor pricing, part of it is a function of supply/demand in that there was a lot of trichlor that came into the market towards the back half of last year. And as that inventory sells through, then what you're going to see is some deflation on the trichlor pricing. But as Melanie said, the important part is that being offset with cal-hypo and bleach pricing and of the other balancers, right?

因此，作為混合在一起，我認為我們比在公開市場上購買所有東西要好。我要告訴你的是，三氯的定價部分是供需關係，因為去年下半年有很多三氯進入市場。隨著庫存售罄，您將看到三氯的定價出現一些通貨緊縮。但正如 Melanie 所說，重要的部分是用低鈣和漂白劑定價以及其他平衡器抵消，對嗎？

So I don't know that our thinking is all that much different on chemicals. It really is in line with what we had contemplated at the beginning of the year.

所以我不知道我們對化學製品的想法有多大不同。確實符合我們年初的設想。

The industry had more product on the ground, let's call it, a quarter or 2 ago, significantly more than there is today. So the oversupply is coming down, which is only going to help pricing stability going forward.

一個季度或兩個季度前，該行業有更多的產品，我們稱之為，比今天多得多。因此，供過於求正在下降，這只會有助於未來的價格穩定。

Our next question will come from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Scott Schneeberger 和 Oppenheimer。

Peter, could you just comment on Florida and in Texas as well? Just Florida seemingly better than we would have expected on the good weather. How much do you read into that and your overall takeaway? I know it's early in the year, but did you extrapolate that at all to other markets if we have a good weather year throughout the rest of the year?

彼得，你能不能也評論一下佛羅里達州和德克薩斯州？只是佛羅里達似乎比我們預期的好天氣要好。你讀了多少和你的整體外賣？我知道現在是今年年初，但如果我們今年餘下時間的天氣都很好，你是否將其推斷到其他市場？

Yes. I think it's a function of the installed base continues to grow. We're happy with that when the sun is out. I mean the crazy thing is pools are in no less favor today than they were a year ago. But what we were faced in the first quarter, because of the weather conditions, made the first quarter very tough. But where the weather was good, I would say, Florida -- I would also tell you that almost the entire Southeast was also in very good shape and in line with expectations.

是的。我認為這是安裝基數持續增長的一個功能。當太陽出來時，我們對此很滿意。我的意思是瘋狂的事情是游泳池今天比一年前更受青睞。但是我們在第一季度所面臨的情況，由於天氣狀況，使得第一季度非常艱難。但是在天氣好的地方，我會說，佛羅里達州——我還要告訴你，幾乎整個東南部的情況也非常好，符合預期。

And if I look at Texas, again, I think we cited the business in Texas was down 6% or so, and that was after being up 7% last year. So again, the market really hasn't changed. What does change is people's ability to work on construction projects in particular. And what does change is the amount of maintenance that is necessary. Now when there is a significant amount of rain, certainly, when the rain stops, there's a -- at times, there's a bit more chemical that is required. But frankly, that happens more during the warm part of the year because it has to do with water temperature.

如果我再看看德克薩斯州，我認為我們引用了德克薩斯州的業務下降了 6% 左右，而那是在去年增長 7% 之後。再說一次，市場真的沒有改變。真正改變的是人們從事建築項目的能力。真正改變的是必要的維護量。現在，當有大量降雨時，當然，當雨停止時，有時需要更多的化學物質。但坦率地說，這種情況在一年中溫暖的時候發生得更多，因為它與水溫有關。

So if you have water temperatures in Texas, for instance, they were -- a month ago, they were basically in the high 50s. Water temperature in the high 50s, whether it rains a lot or not, don't -- doesn't require a lot of chemicals. So we think that the markets are behaving as we would expect. I don't think we're reading into it and say, hey, it's going to be -- there's significant growth coming. I think we're looking at saying that the maintenance business is going to be in line with the installed base and accented or influenced by weather. And construction is going to be a function of demand in new pool construction and the billable days to do it. And the offset really, which we -- again, we had contemplated, is the renovation business that has been good.

因此，例如，如果德克薩斯州的水溫是——一個月前，它們基本上處於 50 多度的高溫。 50 多度的水溫，無論下雨與否，都不需要——不需要很多化學品。因此，我們認為市場表現符合我們的預期。我不認為我們正在閱讀它並說，嘿，它將會 - 將會有顯著的增長。我認為我們正在考慮說維護業務將與已安裝的基礎保持一致，並受天氣的影響或影響。建設將取決於新池建設的需求和計費天數。真正的抵消，我們 - 再次，我們已經考慮過，是一直很好的裝修業務。

Great. And Melanie, on inventory management, could you just speak to how you're starting the year there? It sounds like that is exactly where you want to be, but just maybe some discussion about how that's being managed. What was ordered early in the season? Is it where you want it to be? And will we continue to see inventory declines at the pace you previously expected? And what should that pace look like?

偉大的。梅蘭妮，關於庫存管理，你能談談你是如何開始這一年的嗎？聽起來這正是您想要的，但也許只是討論一下如何管理它。本季初訂購了什麼？它是你想要的地方嗎？我們會繼續看到庫存以您之前預期的速度下降嗎？那速度應該是什麼樣的？

We were very pleased with our ability to be able to rightsize inventory in the first quarter. It did increase from year-end, but that is very typical from a seasonal standpoint. And we want to make sure that all of the sales centers are stocked up for the season.

我們對能夠在第一季度調整庫存規模的能力感到非常滿意。它確實比年底有所增加，但從季節性的角度來看，這是非常典型的。我們希望確保所有銷售中心都備有當季的庫存。

If you go back and look at it historically, the dollar amount of what we increased from year-end to first quarter was significantly less than what we would have normally needed to do because of the inventory that we had on hand.

如果你回頭看看歷史，我們從年底到第一季度增加的美元金額明顯低於我們通常需要做的，因為我們手頭有庫存。

So from a management standpoint, we have corporate resources that look at that and evaluate what we have on hand by sales center as well as also local resources in each of the markets that are responsible for the management of the overall inventory levels. So we are definitely pleased with the progress that we've made.

因此，從管理的角度來看，我們擁有公司資源來查看和評估我們手頭的銷售中心以及負責管理整體庫存水平的每個市場的本地資源。所以我們對我們取得的進展感到非常滿意。

When you look at the dollar increase this year, first quarter compared to last year first quarter, and you look at it by product line, we are really exactly where we want to be. The 2 areas where we have more inventory this year versus last year is on controls and variable speed pumps, and that's because we were still short in first quarter on those 2 particular product lines. So we've made really good progress.

當您查看今年第一季度與去年第一季度相比的美元增長，並按產品線查看時，我們確實正處於我們想要的位置。與去年相比，今年我們擁有更多庫存的 2 個領域是控制和變速泵，這是因為我們在第一季度仍然缺少這 2 個特定產品線。所以我們取得了非常好的進展。

As we get through the second quarter, we will continue to bring that down from both a number and a growth standpoint year-over-year with the kind of full expectation that by the end of third quarter would be when we would be more in line with our historical levels from a days of inventory on hand. And that'll prepare us to really go forth in the fourth quarter and evaluate the early buy opportunities from the vendors and make the appropriate decisions that'll set us up for 2024.

隨著我們度過第二季度，我們將繼續從數量和增長的角度來看同比下降，並完全期望到第三季度末我們將更加符合預期我們手頭庫存天數的歷史水平。這將使我們做好準備，在第四季度真正開展工作，評估供應商的早期購買機會，並做出適當的決定，為 2024 年做好準備。

Our next question will come from Trey Grooms with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Trey Grooms 和 Stephens。

Melanie, I think you mentioned modest growth in the second half is kind of in the expectations. If you could, maybe give a little color around what you guys are seeing there that maybe gives you some confidence in seeing that back half improve some versus first half, excluding weather. So kind of the puts and takes there for the second half top line. And clearly, your comps get easier in 4Q, but still pretty tough in 3Q. Just wanted to understand the driver behind your expectations there.

梅蘭妮，我認為你提到下半年的適度增長有點符合預期。如果可以的話，也許可以給你們在那裡看到的東西一些顏色，這可能會讓你們有信心看到後半場比上半場有所改善，不包括天氣。下半場頂線就是如此。很明顯，你的組合在第四季度變得更容易，但在第三季度仍然非常艱難。只是想了解您的期望背後的驅動因素。

Yes. Mostly, it is going to be focused on the comps when you're looking at it. So we would expect that the trend on the daily sales would continue on a good pace. But we did start to see some of the new pool construction permits and the construction activities start to slow down really at the beginning of fourth quarter, kind of started a little bit in the end of the third quarter. So the comps there certainly will get easier on the new construction side.

是的。大多數情況下，當您查看它時，它將專注於伴奏。因此，我們預計日銷量的趨勢將繼續保持良好的勢頭。但我們確實開始看到一些新的泳池施工許可證，施工活動在第四季度初開始真正放緩，在第三季度末開始有所放緩。因此，在新建築方面，那裡的競爭肯定會變得更容易。

We did see that the remodel activity did remain very strong in fourth quarter of last year kind of offsetting some of that on the new pool construction side. So I think it's going to be comps. It's also going to be weather in the seasonal markets. The biggest thing that will impact us in fourth quarter similar to first quarter is going to be how favorable the weather is and if the season kind of extends out and our customers are able to continue to work.

我們確實看到改造活動在去年第四季度確實保持非常強勁，這在一定程度上抵消了新泳池建設方面的影響。所以我認為這將是補償。這也將成為季節性市場的天氣。與第一季度相似，第四季度對我們產生影響的最大因素將是天氣的好壞，以及旺季是否可以延長，我們的客戶是否能夠繼續工作。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then it sounds like you guys are still gaining share in some of these harder hit -- well, you pointed out California. And are you seeing similar kind of share gains in other hard-hit markets, maybe like Arizona? And then just as a point of clarity, kind of back to the guide, I know your prior guide didn't have any market share gains baked in, I don't believe, but is that still the case with the updated guide given today?

知道了。好的。這就說得通了。然後聽起來你們仍然在其中一些受重創的市場中獲得份額——好吧，你指出了加利福尼亞。您是否在其他遭受重創的市場（例如亞利桑那州）看到類似的份額增長？然後為了清楚起見，回到指南，我知道你之前的指南沒有任何市場份額增長，我不相信，但今天更新的指南仍然如此？

Yes. I would say that our share gains really are happening across the country. And as I mentioned, that's really a product of a tremendous amount of work and, frankly, investment that the business is making and very talented people that provide an unparalleled service. So I'm very comfortable that our ability to gain share, because if I look at it really across the country, we can see it in virtually every market that we play in.

是的。我想說的是，我們的份額增長確實正在全國范圍內發生。正如我所提到的，這確實是大量工作的產物，坦率地說，是企業正在進行的投資以及提供無與倫比服務的非常有才華的人。所以我對我們獲得份額的能力感到非常滿意，因為如果我真的在全國范圍內觀察它，我們幾乎可以在我們參與的每個市場中看到它。

Now as I mentioned, there will be a branch here or there where that may not be true. But on balance, certainly for the network, we're very confident in our ability to continue to take share.

現在，正如我提到的，這里或那裡可能會有一個分支，但情況可能並非如此。但總的來說，當然對於網絡而言，我們對我們繼續分享份額的能力非常有信心。

And the guide, any share gains in that down kind of mid-singles?

指南，在那種低迷的中單中有任何份額收益嗎？

Nothing significant at this point. We want to be cautious as we see what the weather looks like in second quarter.

在這一點上沒有什麼重要的。當我們看到第二季度的天氣情況時，我們希望保持謹慎。

Our next question will come from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Loop Capital 的 Garik Shmois。

Wanted to ask first on operating expense in the first quarter. Just hoping you could provide how much of the increase was driven by some of the things you had previously called out like the rent and facility cost inflation versus the marketing expense in the first quarter versus the lower fixed cost leverage that you saw on the weaker volumes.

想先問問第一季度的營業費用。只是希望您能提供增長中有多少是由您之前提到的一些因素驅動的，例如租金和設施成本通脹與第一季度的營銷費用以及您在銷量較弱時看到的較低的固定成本槓桿.

Yes. So the rent increases that we saw are not going away. So that is something as we go out through the rest of the year. I mean we did see some incremental rent increases from the new locations that we opened in the quarter, but the inflationary increases in rent are -- will continue through the rest of the year for the most part. So we have renewal count throughout the year, but really no changes in expectations. So the increase there year-over-year does -- from a percentage of expense to revenue does impact the first and fourth quarter more significantly. So that will not go away.

是的。所以我們看到的租金上漲並沒有消失。所以這就是我們在今年餘下時間裡出去的事情。我的意思是我們確實看到我們在本季度開設的新地點的租金有所增加，但租金的通貨膨脹上漲 - 將在今年餘下的大部分時間裡持續。因此，我們全年都有續訂數量，但預期確實沒有變化。因此，同比增長確實 - 從費用佔收入的百分比確實對第一季度和第四季度產生了更大的影響。所以那不會消失。

What we did see in first quarter if we did focus very much on some activities that we did with our customers. So there were a couple of million dollars of expenses related to some customer-facing activities as well as a couple of million dollars of incremental investments in some of the other projects that we're working on to be able to expand capacity in some of our operating initiatives as well.

如果我們確實非常關注與客戶開展的某些活動，那麼我們在第一季度確實看到了什麼。因此，有幾百萬美元的費用與一些面向客戶的活動相關，還有幾百萬美元的增量投資用於我們正在開展的其他一些項目，以便能夠擴大我們的一些產能運營舉措也是如此。

Got it. Follow-up question is just on the maintenance revenue guidance going from flat to down 1, just not that big of a change, but I just want to confirm that it was primarily weather or are you seeing any change in customer behavior on maintenance given the choppier macro at all?

知道了。後續問題只是關於維護收入指導從持平到下降 1，變化不大，但我只想確認這主要是天氣，或者您是否看到客戶在維護方面的行為有任何變化波濤洶湧的宏？

Yes. No, it really is a function of weather. As we've said many times, one of the best parts about our industry is that the maintenance is really nondiscretionary. You have to move the water, filter the water and treat the water. And again, the -- it has to do with the amount of precipitation and the water temperature and how much the pools are used.

是的。不，它確實是天氣的函數。正如我們多次說過的，我們行業最好的部分之一是維護真的是非自由裁量權的。您必須移動水、過濾水和處理水。再一次，這與降水量和水溫以及游泳池的使用量有關。

Obviously, if the weather is cooler and it's raining, people aren't using it, and that's going to curtail some of the maintenance spend. So we're very comfortable that the maintenance spending is really a function of the size of the installed base and the implications of the weather and how much the pools are used and the chemical load that would be associated with that.

顯然，如果天氣涼爽下雨，人們就不會使用它，這將減少一些維護支出。因此，我們感到非常欣慰的是，維護支出實際上是安裝基礎規模、天氣影響、游泳池使用量以及與之相關的化學負荷的函數。

Our next question will come from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. Just a couple of cleanups for me, if I could. I know this is not going to be scientific, Peter, but I'm wondering if you have a view of sort of where we are with backlogs because we've talked about that in some previous calls, backlogs on new and refurbishment projects.

偉大的。如果可以的話，只需為我做幾次清理工作。我知道這不是科學的，彼得，但我想知道你是否對我們在積壓方面有什麼看法，因為我們在之前的一些電話中談到過，新項目和翻新項目的積壓。

Yes. As you can imagine, we spend a great deal of time talking to our customers. And you're 100% right, it's not scientific. So a year ago, I was comfortably telling you that many of the builders are booked out through the end of the year. I would tell you now, depending on the type of builder and the part of the country, I heard backlogs of 2 months to 6 months tend to be much more common, 2 months related to the lower-end pools, right? There's certainly more capacity there and depending on what part of the country you're at, of course. And at the upper end, your high-quality builders that build the very large projects, they were and are and remain in very high demand. So their backlogs really haven't changed much at all, right? So most of them are booked out for the season for the high-end guys, but certainly capacity. But if you needed a number for how to contextualize it, I would tell you, if you thought about 2 to 6 months, you will be wrong.

是的。可以想像，我們花了大量時間與客戶交談。而且你是 100% 正確的，這不科學。所以一年前，我很高興地告訴你，許多建築商在年底前都被預訂一空。我現在告訴你，根據建築商的類型和國家/地區的不同，我聽說 2 個月到 6 個月的積壓往往更為常見，2 個月與低端礦池有關，對吧？當然，那裡的容量更大，具體取決於您所在國家/地區的哪個地區。在高端，你們建造超大型項目的高質量建築商，他們過去、現在和現在的需求量都非常大。所以他們的積壓訂單真的沒有太大變化，對吧？因此，他們中的大多數人都在本賽季為高端球員預訂了一空，但肯定有容量。但是，如果您需要一個數字來說明如何將其背景化，我會告訴您，如果您考慮 2 到 6 個月，那您就錯了。

Okay. Great. And you teed me up perfectly because I wanted to ask how should we think about the mix between sort of high end and low end because you've mentioned that difference a couple of times.

好的。偉大的。你完美地訓練了我，因為我想問我們應該如何考慮高端和低端之間的混合，因為你已經多次提到了這種差異。

Yes. I think what we're seeing and what the builders are reporting is the most challenging pool for them to sell right now is the price point pool. The family that is going to have is going to have to stretch and going to have to be where there's a higher degree of financing. So the lending cost play a bigger role than whether that project is affordable or not. So I would tell you that similar to what we started to see last year, the lower end pools will be under the most pressure and the mid- to higher end, we don't really see much demand. So I think it was (inaudible) and asked the question, does that imply that the ASP will likely creep up for the average pool? And I think that's a fairly safe assumption based on the mix that we see.

是的。我認為我們所看到的和建築商報告的是他們現在出售的最具挑戰性的池是價格點池。將要擁有的家庭將不得不伸展，並且必須在融資程度更高的地方。因此，貸款成本比該項目是否負擔得起起著更大的作用。所以我會告訴你，與我們去年開始看到的情況類似，低端礦池將承受最大的壓力，而中高端礦池，我們並沒有真正看到太多需求。所以我認為這是（聽不清）並問了這個問題，這是否意味著 ASP 可能會逐漸上升到平均水平？我認為這是一個基於我們所看到的組合的相當安全的假設。

Okay. Sorry. And to push that, is it like 50-50? Is that the way to think about the high-end, low-end mix normally or something different?

好的。對不起。並推動它，它像 50-50 嗎？這是考慮高端、低端混音的正常方式還是不同的方式？

I would tell you that I think it's probably -- at the lower end, it's probably a little more than 50-50. I would tell you that the lower end is probably a very unscientific number, Steve. So I guess I would tell you, it's probably in the 60% to 65% would be at the lower end.

我會告訴你，我認為它可能 - 在低端，它可能比 50-50 多一點。我會告訴你，下限可能是一個非常不科學的數字，史蒂夫。所以我想我會告訴你，它可能在 60% 到 65% 之間。

Got it. Okay. We'll hold you to it. I'm just trying to understand. And then a quick one for Melanie, if I could. I think the cash flow from operations number that you gave, greater than $800 million, if I'm not mistaken, I think that's the same as what we were talking about before. So how should we think about that? A little bit lower net income, a little bit higher inventory liquidation? Is that...

知道了。好的。我們會堅持下去的。我只是想了解。如果可以的話，然後給 Melanie 一個快速的。我認為你給出的運營現金流量大於 8 億美元，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為這與我們之前談論的是一樣的。那麼我們應該如何考慮呢？淨利潤低一點，庫存清算高一點？就是它...

Yes. No, that's right on. That's the way I would think about it as well.

是的。不，那是正確的。我也會這麼想。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Shaun Calnan with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Shaun Calnan。

Just one question from me. So you mentioned that there was a 2% headwind from lower early buy activity. Do you have any feedback from the dealers on what drove that slowdown? Is that weather-related? Is it weaker expectations coming into the year? Or anything to do with inventory levels at the dealers?

我只有一個問題。所以你提到早期購買活動減少有 2% 的逆風。對於導致經濟放緩的原因，您有經銷商的反饋嗎？跟天氣有關嗎？今年的預期會變弱嗎？或者與經銷商的庫存水平有什麼關係？

I think it's a combination of things, right? I would tell you that dealers now realize that the supply chains have essentially returned to normal for almost all items. So whereas a year ago, they were saying, I need to get my order in if I need to have product because when the season opens and pools are being used and my phone is blowing up, I need to have products. Now we've assured them that, hey, I have inventory -- there's plenty of inventory in the channel. So they said, okay, I don't need to take that product in earlier. So a portion of it is supply chain-related. A portion of it is a later start to the season, right? So if the -- I would tell you if you were to survey dealers in the seasonal markets, they essentially, in the last week or so, have just started opening pools.

我認為這是多種因素的結合，對吧？我會告訴你，經銷商現在意識到幾乎所有商品的供應鏈都已基本恢復正常。因此，一年前，他們說，如果我需要產品，我需要收到訂單，因為當季節開始並且正在使用游泳池並且我的手機爆炸時，我需要有產品。現在我們向他們保證，嘿，我有庫存——渠道中有大量庫存。所以他們說，好吧，我不需要早點服用那個產品。所以其中一部分與供應鏈相關。其中一部分是賽季開始較晚，對吧？因此，如果 - 我會告訴你，如果你要調查季節性市場的經銷商，他們基本上在上週左右剛剛開始開放游泳池。

So if inventory is available, and I don't need it until the middle of April, and I know that I can enter an order on POOL360 and have it shipped directly to my branch or to my service or a warehouse, I'm not going to have to put that order in and take it earlier in the year. I think that's a portion of it.

因此，如果有可用庫存，並且我在 4 月中旬之前不需要它，並且我知道我可以在 POOL360 上輸入訂單並將其直接運送到我的分支機構或我的服務或倉庫，我不會將不得不在今年早些時候下訂單並接受它。我認為這是其中的一部分。

As far as your comment on inventory, some people have called that shadow inventory. Again, I think it really depends. In aggregate, I don't think it's a very large number because if you look, in aggregate, most of our customers don't have the ability to store a lot of products. Might there be a little more product left over in the system from last season if they knocked up earlier. And the answer to that is maybe, but we don't view that as a significant amount of product.

至於你對庫存的評論，有些人稱之為影子庫存。同樣，我認為這真的取決於。總的來說，我不認為這是一個很大的數字，因為如果你看，總的來說，我們的大多數客戶都沒有能力存儲很多產品。如果他們早點啟動的話，上個賽季系統中可能會剩下更多的產品。答案是也許，但我們不認為這是大量產品。

The early buy headwind, I think, has more to do with product availability and timing of when the season starts. And the reason I would tell you that is if you look at the markets like Florida and Texas, to me, it's illogical to think that there was more or less shadow inventory in those markets or that the early buys were significantly different. I really think it's a function of when I need product to use and whether product is available.

我認為，早期購買逆風更多地與產品可用性和季節開始的時間有關。我要告訴你的原因是，如果你看看佛羅里達州和德克薩斯州這樣的市場，對我來說，認為這些市場或多或少存在影子庫存或者早期購買有很大不同是不合邏輯的。我真的認為這是我何時需要使用產品以及產品是否可用的功能。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Peter Arvan, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給總裁兼首席執行官 Peter Arvan，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Yes. Thank you all for your continued support, and we look forward to discussing our second quarter 2023 results on July 20. Have a great day. Thank you.

是的。感謝大家一直以來的支持，我們期待在 7 月 20 日討論我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you (inaudible) in today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。謝謝你（聽不清）在今天的演講中。您現在可以斷開連接。