Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amanda Ho. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在，我很高興把發言權交給主持人Amanda Ho。女士，請您發言。

Thank you, Matthew. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our third quarter earnings, recent developments, and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman, President and CEO, Ted Geisler; and our CFO, Andrew Cooper. Jacob Tetlow, COO; and Jose Esparza, SVP of Public Policy, are also here with us.

謝謝你，馬修。感謝各位參加本次電話會議及網路直播，共同回顧我們第三季的收益、近期發展及營運表現。今天我們的演講嘉賓是董事長、總裁兼執行長泰德·蓋斯勒；以及財務長安德魯·庫柏。營運長 Jacob Tetlow 和公共政策高級副總裁 Jose Esparza 也和我們在一起。

First, I need to cover a few details on the slides. The slides that we will be using are available on our Investor Relations website, along with our earnings release and related information. Today's comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

首先，我需要介紹一下投影片上的一些細節。我們將使用的幻燈片以及我們的獲利報告和相關資訊都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。今天的評論和幻燈片中包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

Our third quarter 2025 Form 10-Q was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures.

我們今天上午提交了 2025 年第三季的 10-Q 表格。請參考該文件，其中包含前瞻性陳述、警示性語言以及風險因素和管理層討論與分析 (MD&A) 部分，其中列出了可能導致實際結果與我們披露結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through November 10, 2025.

本次電話會議的錄音重播將很快在我們的網站上提供，有效期為30天。2025年11月10日之前，用戶還可以透過電話使用該服務。

I will now turn the call over to Ted.

現在我將把電話轉給泰德。

Thank you, Amanda, and thank you all for joining us today. In the third quarter, we delivered strong operational and financial performance, underscoring the discipline and focus to define our strategy.

謝謝阿曼達，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨現場。第三季度，我們取得了強勁的營運和財務業績，凸顯了我們在製定策略方面所展現出的嚴謹性和專注度。

Today, I'll share how we plan to continue to meet rising customer demand and how we successfully navigated a dynamic summer season. I'll also highlight our long-term planning efforts and strategic investments that position us for sustainable growth. Then Andrew will walk through how increased sales and transmission revenue have led us to revise our 2025 earnings guidance, along with our forward-looking financial expectations.

今天，我將分享我們如何計劃繼續滿足不斷增長的客戶需求，以及我們如何成功應對瞬息萬變的夏季。我也會重點介紹我們的長期規劃工作和策略性投資，這些工作和投資使我們能夠實現永續成長。然後，Andrew 將詳細介紹銷售額和輸電收入的成長如何促使我們修改 2025 年的獲利預期以及我們對未來的財務預期。

Importantly, our long-term planning and resource procurement paid off as we reliably serve customers over multiple record peak days this quarter. I'm proud of our entire team for stepping up during the summer season to support our customers and communities with industry-leading reliability, a hallmark of our company.

重要的是，我們的長期規劃和資源採購取得了成效，在本季度多個創紀錄的高峰日，我們都能可靠地為客戶提供服務。我為我們整個團隊感到驕傲，他們在夏季挺身而出，以行業領先的可靠性為我們的客戶和社區提供支持，這是我們公司的標誌性特點。

Our crews battled storms, flooding, and extreme heat, yet we're prepared to ensure customers were taking care of with rapid response and operational excellence. Additionally, Palo Verde Generating Station operated at 100% capacity factor the entire summer, delivering a solid performance for our customers and the entire Desert Southwest region.

我們的工作人員克服了暴風雨、洪水和極端高溫的挑戰，但我們始終保持快速反應和卓越的營運能力，確保客戶得到妥善照顧。此外，帕洛維德發電廠整個夏季都以 100% 的容量係數運行，為我們的客戶和整個沙漠西南部提供了可靠的性能。

Our peak demand record reflects the strong underlying economic growth in our service territory with weather-normalized sales growth of 5.4% and residential sales growth of 4.3% in the third quarter alone. Arizona's population growth remains robust, fueled by major employers, expanding their operations, and driving demand for skilled labor.

我們的需求高峰記錄反映了我們服務區域強勁的潛在經濟成長，僅第三季度，經天氣因素調整後的銷售額增長了 5.4%，住宅銷售額增長了 4.3%。亞利桑那州的人口成長依然強勁，這主要得益於大型雇主擴大業務規模，推動了對技術工人的需求。

The state's ability to attract and retain high-quality talent is truly a key differentiator and a powerful signal of the long-term economic fatality we're helping support. SEMICON West, recognized as North America's largest microelectronic exhibition and conference was held outside California for the first time in more than 50 years with Phoenix being selected as the host city. Our region's economic momentum continues to accelerate.

一個州吸引和留住優秀人才的能力確實是關鍵的差異化因素，也是我們正在助長長期經濟衰退的強烈訊號。被譽為北美最大的微電子展覽和會議的 SEMICON West，50 多年來首次在加州以外的地方舉辦，鳳凰城被選為主辦城市。我們地區的經濟成長動能持續加速。

Site Selection Magazine recently named Maricopa County, the top county in the nation for economic development in 2025, citing its success in attracting high-growth industries like semiconductors, data centers, and logistics.

《選址雜誌》最近將馬里科帕縣評為 2025 年全美經濟發展最佳縣，理由是該縣成功吸引了半導體、資料中心和物流等高成長產業。

Taiwan Semiconductor reaffirmed its commitment to Arizona, accelerating production of 2-nanometer wafers and advanced technologies. They also announced plans to acquire a second location in Phoenix to support their vision for a stand-alone giga-fab cluster.

台積電重申了對亞利桑那州的承諾，加快了2奈米晶圓和先進技術的生產。他們還宣布計劃在鳳凰城收購第二個地點，以支持他們打造獨立千兆晶矽晶圓廠集群的願景。

Meanwhile, Amcor Technology broke ground on a $7 billion advanced semiconductor packaging and testing facility, which is an increased investment of $5 billion over their original plans. The first phase is expected to be completed by mid-2027 with production beginning in early 2028. To support this growth, we're executing our plan for long-term investments in both transmission and baseload generation, which are essential to secure a reliable grid for the long term.

同時，安姆科科技公司破土動工興建一座價值 70 億美元的先進半導體封裝和測試工廠，比原計畫的投資增加了 50 億美元。第一階段預計將於 2027 年年中完成，並於 2028 年初開始生產。為了支持這一成長，我們正在執行長期投資計劃，投資領域涵蓋輸電和基荷發電，這對於確保電網長期可靠運作至關重要。

In Q2, we announced our role as the anchor shipper on the Desert Southwest expansion project. And just days ago, we announced our plans to develop a new generation site near Gila Bend just southwest of Phoenix, which could add up to 2,000 megawatts of reliable and affordable natural gas generation to our customers.

第二季度，我們宣布了我們在沙漠西南擴建項目中擔任主要貨運商的角色。就在幾天前，我們宣布了在鳳凰城西南部的吉拉本德附近開發新發電廠的計劃，這將為我們的客戶增加高達 2000 兆瓦可靠且價格合理的天然氣發電量。

The Desert Sun Power Plant is a two-phase project designed to serve both existing customers and the rising demand from extra large energy users like data centers and manufacturers. Phase 1 is expected to begin serving committed customers by late 2030. Phase 2 is expected to support new demand from our queue of high load factor customers.

沙漠太陽發電廠是一個分兩期進行的項目，旨在服務現有客戶，並滿足資料中心和製造商等超大型能源用戶日益增長的需求。第一階段預計將於 2030 年底開始為已簽約客戶提供服務。第二階段預計將滿足我們高負載率客戶隊列中的新增需求。

Importantly, we're working with customers now to contract for the Phase 2 capacity using our subscription model, a commercial construct designed to ensure growth pays for growth while protecting affordability for all customers.

重要的是，我們現在正與客戶合作，利用我們的訂閱模式簽訂第二階段的容量合約。這種商業模式旨在確保成長能帶來收益，同時保障所有客戶都能負擔。

Investment in generation alone will not be enough to support the growth in customer demand. We're making significant investments in transmission as well with multiple projects underway and more in development. These projects are expected to enhance reliability, resiliency, and integration of new resources. They also expand our access to out-of-state generation and regional markets.

單靠對發電設施的投資不足以滿足不斷增長的客戶需求。我們也在輸電領域進行了大量投資，目前有多個項目正在進行中，還有更多項目正在開發中。這些項目有望提高可靠性、韌性和新資源的整合。它們也擴大了我們進入州外發電和區域市場的管道。

Transmission investment benefit from constructive and timely recovery through our (inaudible) formula rate and creates opportunities for additional wheeling revenues that support affordability for our retail customers.

透過我們的（聽不清楚）公式費率，輸電投資可從建設性和及時的回收中受益，並創造額外的輸電收入機會，從而支持我們零售客戶的負擔能力。

Turning to our pending rate case. We remain actively engaged with intervenors in responding to data requests, and remain on track for a hearing in Q2 of next year. As we approach the end of 2025, our priorities remain clear: executing our mission to deliver reliable and affordable service to our customers; investing in baseload generation and transmission to serve growth; and achieving a constructive regulatory outcome that protects customer affordability while reducing regulatory lag.

接下來討論我們待審的費率案件。我們將繼續積極與介入者合作，回應資料請求，並按計劃於明年第二季舉行聽證會。隨著 2025 年即將結束，我們的優先事項仍然很明確：履行我們的使命，為客戶提供可靠且價格合理的服務；投資於基荷發電和輸電以滿足增長需求；以及取得建設性的監管成果，在保護客戶負擔能力的同時減少監管滯後。

Thank you for your time today. I'll now turn it over to Andrew.

感謝您今天抽出時間。現在我把麥克風交給安德魯。

Thank you, Ted, and thanks again to everyone for joining us today. This morning, we released our third quarter 2025 financial results. I'll walk through the key drivers behind our performance, provide context on our updated 2025 guidance and share our outlook for 2026 and beyond.

謝謝你，泰德，也再次感謝今天所有到場的各位。今天上午，我們發布了2025年第三季財務業績。我將詳細介紹我們業績背後的關鍵驅動因素，提供我們更新後的 2025 年業績指引的背景信息，並分享我們對 2026 年及以後的展望。

We reported earnings of $3.39 per share for the quarter, a modest increase of $0.02 year over year. This result was primarily attributable to higher transmission revenues and higher sales driven by robust sales growth across customer classes.

本季每股收益為 3.39 美元，比上年同期略微增長 0.02 美元。這項結果主要歸功於輸電收入的增加以及各客戶群強勁的銷售成長帶動了銷售額的提高。

These gains were partially offset by lower weather-driven sales compared to last year's Q3, higher interest expense, reduced pension, and [OPEB] benefits and an increase in our outstanding share count. Based on strong sales growth along with above normal weather, an increase in transmission revenues, and contributions from El Dorado, we are raising our 2025 EPS guidance from a range of $4.40 to $4.60 per share, up to $4.90 to $5.10 per share.

這些收益部分被以下因素抵銷：與去年第三季相比，受天氣影響的銷售量下降；利息支出增加；退休金和[OPEB]福利減少；以及流通股數量增加。基於強勁的銷售成長、高於正常水平的天氣、輸電收入的增加以及 El Dorado 的貢獻，我們將 2025 年每股收益預期從 4.40 美元至 4.60 美元上調至 4.90 美元至 5.10 美元。

With the ability to derisk future operating expenses, our updated guidance reflects an increase to our forecasted O&M for the year to a range of $1.025 billion to $1.045 billion.

由於能夠降低未來營運費用的風險，我們更新後的業績指引反映出，我們對全年營運和維護費用的預測增加至 10.25 億美元至 10.45 億美元。

Sales growth across all customer classes continues to be strong. We experienced 5.4% weather-normalized sales growth for the quarter, including 6.6% C&I growth, supported by the continued ramp-up of our large load customers, and 4.3% residential growth.

各客戶群的銷售成長動能依然強勁。本季度，經天氣因素調整後的銷售額增長了 5.4%，其中工商業銷售額增長了 6.6%，這得益於我們大客戶持續增長的需求；住宅銷售額增長了 4.3%。

Year-to-date residential sales growth stands at 2%, exceeding our expectations and fueled by continued customer growth to the top end of our range. We are, therefore, narrowing our customer growth guidance range to the high end of 2% to 2.5% for the year.

今年迄今為止，住宅銷售成長了 2%，超出了我們的預期，這主要得益於高端客戶群的持續成長。因此，我們將今年的客戶成長預期範圍縮小至 2% 至 2.5% 的高端。

As we look ahead to 2026, we anticipate earnings per share of $4.55 to $4.75 per share. The expected year-over-year decrease compared to our revised 2025 earnings guidance is due to the projection of normal weather and higher financing and D&A costs as we work through the rate case process.

展望 2026 年，我們預計每股收益為 4.55 美元至 4.75 美元。與我們修訂後的 2025 年盈利預期相比，預計同比下降的原因是，我們預計天氣將恢復正常，並且由於我們正在進行利率調整，融資和折舊成本將會增加。

We continue to expect robust customer and sales growth increased transmission revenues, focused O&M management, and some positive contributions from our El Dorado subsidiary. Customer growth next year is expected at 1.5% to 2.5%, supported by Arizona's ongoing population and business expansion.

我們繼續期待強勁的客戶和銷售成長、輸電收入增加、專注的維運管理，以及我們的 El Dorado 子公司的一些積極貢獻。預計明年客戶成長率為 1.5% 至 2.5%，這得益於亞利桑那州持續的人口和商業擴張。

Last year, we set a post-recession record with nearly 35,000 new meter sets. We're on track to match that figure again in 2025 and our forecast for 2026 customer additions remained strong.

去年，我們創下了經濟衰退後的紀錄，新安裝的電錶數量接近 35,000 套。我們預計在 2025 年再次達到這一數字，並且我們對 2026 年新增客戶的預測仍然強勁。

For overall sales growth, we expect weather normalized sales to continue to grow at 4% to 6% in 2026. And with the strong residential sales growth trends and continued ramping and acceleration plans by our extra high load factor customers, including in the advanced manufacturing space, we are increasingly confident in our forecasted long-term sales growth range and are raising it up from 4% to 6% to 5% to 7% and extending it through 2030.

就整體銷售成長而言，我們預計到 2026 年，經天氣因素調整後的銷售額將繼續以 4% 至 6% 的速度成長。鑑於住宅銷售強勁成長趨勢，以及包括先進製造業在內的超高負載率客戶持續推進和加速發展計劃，我們對預測的長期銷售成長範圍越來越有信心，並將成長預期從 4% 提高到 6%，再提高到 5%，再提高到 7%，並將成長預期延長至 2030 年。

Our capital and financing strategy remain focused on enabling growth while maintaining affordability and financial discipline. We've updated our capital plan through 2028 to include critical strategic investments in transmission and generation that support reliability and the demands of our rapidly growing service territory.

我們的資本和融資策略仍然專注於在保持可負擔性和財務紀律的同時促進成長。我們已更新了 2028 年的資本計劃，其中包括對輸電和發電的關鍵策略投資，以支持可靠性並滿足我們快速增長的服務區域的需求。

As highlighted by Ted, we look forward to developing these new resources for the benefit of our customers. These investments are expected to drive rate base growth of 7% to 9% through 2028, an increase from our prior guidance of 6% to 8% through 2027. To support this plan, we've updated our financing strategy for '26 through '28, maintaining a balanced mix of debt and equity aligned with our balance sheet targets.

正如 Ted 所強調的，我們期待開發這些新資源，以造福我們的客戶。預計這些投資將推動利率基礎在 2028 年之前成長 7% 至 9%，高於我們先前預測的 2027 年之前成長 6% 至 8%。為了支持這項計劃，我們更新了 2026 年至 2028 年的融資策略，保持債務和股權的平衡組合，以符合我們的資產負債表目標。

For 2026, approximately 85% of our equity need has already been priced with an additional $1 billion to $1.2 billion of Pinnacle West equity forecasted through 2028.

2026 年，我們約 85% 的股權需求已經定價，預計到 2028 年，Pinnacle West 還將需要 10 億至 12 億美元的股權。

On the O&M front, our 2026 outlook reflects our commitment to cost efficiency. We expect a slight year-over-year decrease despite continued customer growth, and we remain focused on reducing O&M per mega hour over the long term.

在維運方面，我們 2026 年的展望體現了我們對成本效益的承諾。儘管客戶數量持續成長，但我們預計將比去年同期略有下降，我們將繼續致力於長期降低每兆小時的維運成本。

Finally, we are affirming our long-term EPS growth guidance range of 5% to 7% based on the midpoint of our original 2024 guidance range. We recognize that regulatory lag will continue to be a factor in 2026.

最後，我們確認長期每股盈餘成長預期範圍為 5% 至 7%，該預期範圍基於我們最初 2024 年預期範圍的中點。我們認識到，監管滯後在 2026 年仍將是一個影響因素。

However, we remain confident in our long-term financial strategy. Our service territory offers unique advantages, including strong growth across all customer classes and a diversified economic base that includes advanced manufacturing, data centers, and continued population growth.

然而，我們對我們的長期財務策略仍然充滿信心。我們的服務區域具有獨特的優勢，包括所有客戶群的強勁成長以及多元化的經濟基礎，其中包括先進製造業、資料中心和持續的人口成長。

Working closely with the Arizona Corporation Commission and stakeholders, we're committed to addressing regulatory lag, improving recovery timing, and ensuring affordability as we continue serving new and existing customers.

我們與亞利桑那州公司委員會和利益相關者密切合作，致力於解決監管滯後問題，改善回收時間，並在繼續為新舊客戶提供服務的同時，確保價格合理。

This concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

我們的發言稿到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給接線員，以便回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

（操作說明）朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯，傑富瑞集團。

Appreciate it and nicely done. I got to say again. Look, let me -- if I can kick it off here. Obviously, the gas build is front and center here for you guys, good progress. How are you thinking about just eventually giving visibility on '29 and '30, especially as what you see that here.

謝謝，做得很好。我得再說一次。聽著，讓我——如果我能在這裡開始的話。顯然，瓦斯系統建設是你們目前關注的重點，進展順利。您打算如何最終讓 '29' 和 '30' 獲得關注，尤其是像您在這裡看到的那樣。

Can you speak a little bit to the extent possible of what that trajectory as you rolled it forward here? What potentially look like in that context? And maybe speak a little bit more to the sequencing of getting this pipeline built in time and in service to align with what seems like a fairly tight time frame altogether to build out this generation.

您能否盡可能詳細地談談您是如何將這個專案推進到現在的？在這種情況下，它可能會是什麼樣子？或許還可以更詳細地談談如何按時完成這條管道的建設和投入使用，以配合看似相當緊迫的這一代產品的建設時間框架。

Yes, Julien, thanks very much. And I'll start and then Andrew can talk about the capital plan. The pipeline is expected to be in service in 2029. We're staying very close to that project and remain confident in the milestones between here and there. And so as you know, that was the first key step.

是的，朱利安，非常感謝。我先開始，然後安德魯可以談談資本計畫。該管道預計將於 2029 年投入使用。我們將密切關注該項目，並對從現在到那時之間的各個里程碑充滿信心。所以，如你所知，那是第一個關鍵步驟。

Second step then is starting to announce some of the generation capacity projects that we've been working on, Desert Sun being the first major announcement and project that we would expect.

第二步是開始公佈我們一直在進行的一些發電能力項目，沙漠太陽項目是我們預計的第一個重大公告和項目。

And so as we've said, we think about this in really two phases. The first phase is going to be necessary to support committed customers. That's a part of the 4.5 gigawatts that we've already committed to and are building out to serve. And we'd expect to be able to have that phase in service in 2030.

所以正如我們所說，我們實際上是分兩個階段來考慮這個問題的。第一階段的必要性在於支持忠實客戶。這是我們已經承諾並正在建設中的 4.5 吉瓦電力項目的一部分，旨在為當地提供服務。我們預計該階段將於 2030 年投入使用。

So still a healthy margin passed when the pipeline is in service, but a schedule that we're comfortable with meeting Importantly, we've got all the key equipment secured, land interconnection is in place. So I think we're in a good spot to be able to deliver on that time line.

因此，管道投入使用後仍能確保充足的利潤空間，而且我們能夠按計畫完成。重要的是，所有關鍵設備都已到位，陸地互連也已就緒。所以我認為我們有能力按時完成任務。

And then the second phase of that project, we've identified the opportunity to be able to serve our subscription customers with. We've rolled out an opportunity to subscription customers for 1.2 gigawatts and we're actively working with those counterparties on their desired timing and ramp rate to be able to take advantage of that second phase.

然後，在該專案的第二階段，我們發現了為我們的訂閱客戶提供服務的機會。我們已經向訂閱客戶推出了 1.2 吉瓦的容量，並且我們正在積極與這些客戶合作，確定他們想要的時間安排和成長速度，以便能夠利用第二階段的機會。

And that's one of the benefits of the subscription model is we can ensure that the delivery time line of that second phase corresponds with the counterparties ramp rate, and we make sure that reliability is protected by keeping those two in sync.

訂閱模式的優勢之一在於，我們可以確保第二階段的交貨時間表與交易對手的進度同步，並透過保持兩者同步來確保可靠性。

Both will, of course, take service from the new pipeline, but we're comfortable with the timing and how that coincides with the pipelines in service. And we'll continue to monitor pipeline progress along the way. And be prepared to adjust if needed. But we're comfortable with the time line we've laid out.

當然，兩者都將使用新管道，但我們對時間安排以及它與正在使用的管道的吻合程度感到滿意。我們將持續關注管道建設的進展。並做好必要時做出調整的準備。但我們對制定的時間表感到滿意。

Andrew, do you want to speak to the capital plan?

安德魯，你想談談資本計畫嗎？

Sure. Yes. Julien, as specifically relates to the Desert Sun project. There is some of the capital related to that project, both on the generation side as well as small amounts on the transmission side in the current plan. You've got long lead equipment and land and things like that, that are in the plan.

當然。是的。Julien，具體來說，與 Desert Sun 計畫有關。目前的計劃中包含一些與該項目相關的資金，包括發電方面的資金以及輸電方面的少量資金。你們有需要很長時間才能到位的設備和土地等等，這些都在計劃之中。

And certainly, given the service base that Ted is talking about for Phase 1, you would see that CapEx ramp up as we get closer to the end of the decade. Certainly around the broader capital plan as we work through the rate case and understand the dynamics of the formula grade and continue to develop our subscription model with our customers that will provide us the opportunity to give more visibility as we certainly want to make sure that, that growth pays for growth.

當然，考慮到泰德所說的第一階段的服務基礎，隨著十年末的臨近，你會看到資本支出不斷增加。當然，在更廣泛的資本計劃框架下，隨著我們研究利率方案，了解公式等級的動態，並繼續與客戶共同開發我們的訂閱模式，這將使我們有機會提供更高的透明度，因為我們當然希望確保成長能夠帶來成長。

But the plan that we've put forward through '28 reflects the beginnings of some of those really big long -- longer lead time investments we're making on the generation and the transmission side. You could see it in the 2028 kind of new run rate for transmission investments and some of the additional information we provided about our ability to start to look at that additional $6 billion backlog of FERC regulated transmission assets and start to begin to develop those in parallel with a project like Desert Sun. So that's the plan.

但我們提出的到 2028 年的計畫反映了我們在發電和輸電方面進行的一些真正意義上的長期投資的開端，這些投資的準備時間較長。您可以從 2028 年輸電投資的新運行速度以及我們提供的其他資訊中看出這一點，這些資訊表明我們有能力開始關注 60 億美元的 FERC 監管輸電資產積壓，並開始與像 Desert Sun 這樣的專案並行開發這些資產。這就是計劃。

We feel good about the plan for '28. And as we are able to certainly provide more information about the time line through the end of the decade, and we've tried to start to do that with some of the construction work in progress disclosure that we've been providing over the last few quarters.

我們對2028年的計畫感到滿意。而且，我們當然能夠提供更多關於本十年末的時間線信息，並且我們已經嘗試通過在過去幾個季度中披露的一些在建工程信息來開始做到這一點。

Got it. And next just you kind of teed up the next piece. How is that progress going on the subscription? You talked about this 1.2-k-watt opportunity. Where are you in sort of filling that bucket or that opportunity?

知道了。接下來，你就為下一部分做好了準備。訂閱進度如何？你提到了這1.2千瓦的機會。你目前在把握這個機會方面做得怎麼樣了？

Yes, we've got active dialogue. This was [Tranche 1] of our subscription and recognize that the timing of Tranche 1 coincides with developing that Phase 2 of Desert Sun as well as well as the inservice of the new pipeline.

是的，我們正在積極對話。這是我們認購的[第一期]，並且認識到第一期的時間與沙漠太陽計畫第二階段的開發以及新管道的投入使用相吻合。

So we're working with counterparties now to match that up with their desired in-service timing. But conversations are active, and we remain optimistic in being able to deploy subscription model to both continue to serve part of the 20-gigawatt queue that is ready to begin service in our service territory while also designing it in a way that helps with financing and protects customer reportability.

因此，我們現在正與交易對手合作，以使之與他們期望的上線時間相匹配。但對話仍在進行中，我們仍然樂觀地認為，能夠部署訂閱模式，既可以繼續為服務區域內準備開始服務的 20 吉瓦隊列中的一部分提供服務，又可以以一種有助於融資和保護客戶報告的方式進行設計。

So I think the key elements of the model has been well received by the market. We're actively working with counterparties, it's going to be a good way to be able to serve that queue both now and going forward.

所以我認為該模式的關鍵要素已經得到了市場的認可。我們正在積極與交易對手合作，這將是滿足當前和未來交易需求的有效途徑。

Yes. Fair enough. One little detail here, on '26 you've got this $0.55 bump here on transmission. That's a sustainable level, right? That's a pretty big bump.

是的。很公平。這裡有個小細節，26 年款的變速箱價格上漲了 0.55 美元。這是可持續的水平，對吧？那可真是個相當大的漲幅。

Yes. Julien, we'll provide guidance as we go forward, obviously, on that. But I think it's reflective of the trend. We've been very committed to investing in our FERC regulated transmission business, and that's some of the capital that I was talking about, both because of that need to access resources from further field and to serve our growth.

是的。Julien，很顯然，我們會就此提供指導。但我認為這反映了當前的趨勢。我們一直致力於投資受 FERC 監管的輸電業務，這正是我剛才提到的部分資金來源，這既是因為我們需要從更遠的地方獲取資源，也是為了滿足我們的成長需求。

And given the FERC construct, the formula rate, and the amount of capital that we've stepped into there, this is just a natural reflection of the plan that we've put forward and converting it now into annual earnings opportunity.

鑑於聯邦能源監管委員會的架構、公式利率以及我們投入的資本量，這只是我們提出的計劃的自然體現，現在將其轉化為年度收益機會。

Nicholas Campanella, Barclays.

尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉，巴克萊銀行。

This is Fei. So quickly, just one clarification on equity dilution, if I could. So since 2026 equity need is 85% taken care of, which is the $550 million already priced as you put in the slide. What's the true incremental equity needs for '26 through '28 especially when we look at the $1 billion to $1.2 billion total equity used for the three-year guidance period?

這是費。那麼，如果可以的話，請容許我快速澄清一下關於股權稀釋的問題。因此，2026 年的股權需求已得到 85% 的滿足，也就是您在投影片中提到的 5.5 億美元。考慮到三年指導期內總共需要投入 10 億至 12 億美元的股權，那麼 2026 年至 2028 年真正的新增股權需求是多少？

And also, I guess, how should we think about the cadence of issuing through '26 and '27? And how should we think about any equity mitigation given the strong sales growth backdrop that you just provided in the update.

另外，我想，我們該如何考慮 2026 年和 2027 年的發行節奏呢？鑑於您在最新報告中提到的強勁銷售成長背景，我們應該如何考慮任何股權風險緩解措施？

Thanks Fei. So yes, on the equity, as you pointed out, we have substantially derisked the need in '26 through all the equity that we've priced both through the block issuance we did in 2024 and our use of our ATM over the last two years. So it would feel like we're in a good position.

謝謝費。是的，關於股權，正如您所指出的，我們透過 2024 年的大宗發行以及過去兩年使用 ATM 發行的所有股權，大幅降低了 2026 年的風險需求。所以感覺我們處於有利地位。

If we look over the incremental need over the three years, that '26 to '28 period, that's what that $1 billion to $1.2 billion represents. And so certainly, these projects are lumpy. So the cadence of issuance need kind of goes with that. That's where an ATM has worked well for us to date to be able to time our drawdowns and our issuance with the CapEx as we go through some of these larger projects.

如果我們看一下 2026 年至 2028 年這三年間的增量需求，那麼這 10 億至 12 億美元就代表了這一點。所以，這些項目肯定是不完美的。所以發行節奏也與此相符。到目前為止，ATM 對我們來說非常有效，它使我們能夠根據資本支出來安排提款和發行時間，從而推進一些大型專案。

But your last question around mitigation is really the key one. When you think about that range and our ability to meet our long-term aspirations around the balanced capital structure and to minimize the amount of equity dilution within that balanced capital structure, it really comes back to all the work we're doing both around reducing regulatory lag through the rate case process to improve retained earnings and our ability to fund that capital from internally generated funds.

但你最後一個關於緩解措施的問題才是關鍵。當你考慮到這個範圍以及我們實現長期目標的能力，即保持資本結構的平衡，並最大限度地減少該平衡資本結構中的股權稀釋程度時，這實際上取決於我們所做的一切工作，包括通過費率案件程序減少監管滯後，以提高留存收益，以及我們利用內部產生的資金為該資本提供資金的能力。

And then to look to our large loan customers in the subscription discussion to make sure that to the extent that we could secure cash upfront, to fund those investments that it reduces the need for us to go after the market for equity.

然後，在認購討論中，我們會考慮我們的大貸款客戶，以確保我們能夠預先獲得現金，為這些投資提供資金，從而減少我們進入股權市場的需求。

So while that's the range today of forecasted need, we're going to continue to work through the rate case process and the engagement on the large load side to try to mitigate that as much as possible.

因此，儘管目前預測的需求範圍是這樣的，但我們將繼續推進費率調整流程，並與大負載用戶進行溝通，以盡可能減輕需求。

Got it. That's very helpful. And secondly, just on the transmission capital investment slide you laid out, if I could. I appreciate the clarity on the $2.6 billion cumulative transmission CapEx through '28. And also the [$6 million] plus through 2034. Could you just comment on your assumption on annual transmission CapEx post 2028? And how should we interpret the $6 billion plus, especially on what's contributing and driving the upside?

知道了。那很有幫助。其次，關於您列出的輸電資本投資幻燈片，如果可以的話，我想問一下。我很欣賞截至 2028 年累計輸電資本支出 26 億美元的明確說明。此外，到 2034 年還將增加 600 萬美元。您能否就您對 2028 年後年度輸電資本支出的假設發表一下看法？那麼我們該如何解讀這超過 60 億美元的成長，尤其是哪些因素促成了這一成長並推動了成長？

Yes. So we haven't laid out the specifics of the plan post 2028 because these are really the projects that reflect in the 10-year strategic transmission plan that we filed with the commission every other year. There are a host of projects in their, 500 or 600 miles of high-voltage lines that we're developing to meet different needs. And there's some fungibility in terms of to develop this line with that line. So we're doing a lot of that work today.

是的。因此，我們還沒有詳細列出 2028 年以後的計劃，因為這些項目實際上反映在我們每兩年向委員會提交的 10 年戰略輸電計劃中。他們有很多項目正在進行中，我們正在開發 500 或 600 英里的高壓輸電線路，以滿足不同的需求。而且，在開發這條產品​​線和那條產品線方面，它們之間有一定的可互換性。所以我們今天做了很多這方面的工作。

The way I would think about it overall is that we went from [$200 million] a year of run rate CapEx five years ago in transmission for just sort of the local area projects, the things that we do that are [60-plus], that number is increasing to the $300 million to $400 million range of just the blocking tackling (inaudible) do on the transmission side.

總的來說，我的想法是，五年前我們在輸電方面每年的資本支出為 2 億美元，這僅僅是針對一些本地項目，而我們做的那些 60 多個項目，這個數字正在增加到 3 億到 4 億美元，這僅僅是輸電方面的一些基礎工作。

And so the increments above that, that you see almost that the potential for that $850-plus million number to be a run rate, there is a baseline $300 million to $400 million in there. And then in print above that is reflective of the beginning of investing in these strategic transmission projects but it's a really long runway and the number will vary from year to year.

因此，在此基礎上增加的增量，幾乎可以預見到超過 8.5 億美元的運行率，其中至少有 3 億至 4 億美元的基準。上面的印刷內容反映了對這些戰略輸電項目進行投資的開始，但這還有很長的路要走，而且每年的數字都會有所不同。

But I think if you look at 2028, that is a reflection of the opportunity on an ongoing basis through the combination of core transmission and that increment from strategic transmission.

但我認為，展望 2028 年，這將反映出透過核心輸電和策略輸電的增量相結合而持續存在的機會。

Got it. That's super helpful. If I could, just another quick clarification on the robust sales growth guidance you refresh. I guess, seeing a really elevated level of 5% to 7% through 2030, while looking at a 7% to 9% rate base growth is through 2028. I guess can you comment on your confidence level to possibly extend the 7% to 9% rate growth further into the horizon?

知道了。這太有幫助了。如果可以的話，我想再快速澄清一下您不斷更新的強勁銷售成長預期。我估計，到 2030 年，利率水準將保持在 5% 到 7% 的高位，而到 2028 年，利率基數成長率將達到 7% 到 9%。我想請您談談您對未來一段時間內將7%至9%的利率成長幅度有多大的信心？

And I guess, what could be the key drivers contributing to that?

那麼，造成這種情況的關鍵驅動因素可能是什麼呢？

Yes. So we've laid out through 2028 on the rate base side. And one of the reasons it stepped up is that you're beginning to see some of those long lead projects come into service in '28. The best example being Red Hawk, the expansion of our natural gas facility there.

是的。所以我們規劃到了 2028 年的利率基礎。其中一個原因是，你開始看到一些週期較長的專案在 2028 年投入使用。最好的例子就是紅鷹項目，這是我們在那裡擴建的天然氣設施。

As you get into 2029 and 2030 and beyond, more of these larger projects come in and service up to your point, the higher sales growth we're seeing, especially from the large load type customers. And so as we continue to kind of move forward and develop the CapEx plan around Desert Sun around those strategic $6 billion strategic transmission that we were just talking about, we'll continue to look at that rate base growth rate.

隨著進入 2029 年、2030 年及以後，會有更多此類大型項目進入市場，並達到您所期望的水平，我們看到更高的銷售成長，尤其是來自大宗貨物類型的客戶。因此，隨著我們繼續推進並製定圍繞沙漠太陽項目（Desert Sun）的資本支出計劃，特別是我們剛才提到的價值 60 億美元的戰略輸電項目，我們將繼續關注費率基礎增長率。

Our confidence is that, that runway is quite long. What the level is, is what we'll be able to kind of continue to work through. That [SWIP] disclosure that I mentioned earlier, it's also a good way to think about some of the projects that we know are already in the hopper that take us into '29 and '30. And a good way to extrapolate if you do some of that math.

我們確信，那條跑道很長。具體水平如何，我們將繼續努力解決。我之前提到的[SWIP]披露，也是思考一些我們知道已經在籌備中的項目的好方法，這些項目將帶我們進入2029年和2030年。如果你做一些相關的數學計算，這不失為一個很好的推論方法。

[Shar Pourreza], Wells Fargo.

[Shar Pourreza]，富國銀行。

This is actually Alex on for Shar. So just on the growth rate outlook, just you guys are still targeting that 5% to 7% of the '24 midpoint. Just in the context of today's new '26 guidance, can you just help frame what you might use as your new base? And will you roll forward the plan as soon as the rate case is concluded.

這其實是Alex替Shar主持節目。所以就成長率前景而言，你們仍然以 2024 年中點的 5% 到 7% 為目標。僅就今天發布的 2026 年新指南而言，您能否幫忙建立您可以用作新基礎的內容？一旦費率案件結束，你們會立即推進該計劃嗎？

Sure. Yes. So really, the rigs becomes precipitant for us to look at all that. And if you think about [bashers], we really try to set a high bar for ourselves as we can to make sure that we're consistently meeting or exceeding expectations and doing so in the right way. And so we want to get to the point where the -- that 5%, 7% becomes evergreen.

當然。是的。所以，鑽井平台對我們來說確實很有必要注意所有這些問題。如果你想想那些批評者，我們真的會盡力為自己設定一個高標準，以確保我們始終達到或超過預期，並以正確的方式做到這一點。所以我們希望達到這樣的效果：那 5%、7% 的殖利率能夠長期保持穩定。

Right now, we're in a situation where earnings are lumpy. We go and we have a rate case and we get a rate increase, and then there's regulatory lag through a lengthy rate case process.

目前，我們正處於獲利波動較大的時期。我們去申請利率調整，然後利率上漲，但之後由於漫長的利率調整流程，監管方面會有延遲。

The formula rate is really an important element here to be able to convert that earnings growth rate from being kind of a long term, look at '24 and then look at '28 is something that can be more evergreen. And so I think, as we work through the rate case process and the structure of the formula rate, we'll be much better positioned to talk about what all that looks like.

公式比率在這裡確實是一個重要的因素，它可以將獲利成長率從某種長期指標（例如 2024 年和 2028 年）轉換為更長期的指標。因此，我認為，隨著我們逐步推進利率案件流程和公式利率的結構，我們將能夠更好地討論這一切究竟是什麼樣子。

And ultimately, that's the goal is to be able to deliver year in, year out. produce more modest increases year over year for customers as well. That's a really important part of it. And ultimately, that creates the better stability for us around our earnings growth.

最終目標是能夠年復一年地交付成果，同時也要為客戶帶來逐年較為溫和的成長。這是其中非常重要的一部分。最終，這將為我們的獲利成長創造更好的穩定性。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just switching gears here, just give you a sense -- more of a sense on the megawatt pipeline you have around the hyperscaler side and just sort of how you think about capacity first generation needs?

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。然後，我們換個話題，讓我更深入地了解超大規模資料中心方面的兆瓦級專案儲備，以及您是如何看待第一代發電容量需求的？

Yes, sure, Alex. So we continue to see just a robust pipeline of demand. As we've articulated in the slides, we've got 4.5 gigawatts of incremental demand that we've already committed to. That's in part what Desert Sun is going to be serving as well as future generation and transmission investments that are included in our guidance period and will have to be developed even beyond.

好的，當然可以，亞歷克斯。因此，我們持續看到強勁的需求動能。正如我們在幻燈片中闡述的那樣，我們已經承諾了 4.5 吉瓦的新增需求。沙漠太陽計畫的部分目標就是服務於此，同時也是為了滿足我們指導期內包含的未來發電和輸電投資需求，這些投資甚至需要在指導期之後繼續發展。

But in addition to that, we want to start making progress on committing and serving part of the 20 gigawatts of uncommitted load that is in our current [Q]. And so that's also a part of what Desert Sun will begin to be able to allow us to serve. But of course, we anticipate wanting to be able to offer much more than just that initial tranche of 1.2 gigawatts.

但除此之外，我們也希望開始著手解決目前電力系統中20吉瓦未分配負載的部分問題。[問]所以，這也是《沙漠之陽》雜誌將開始讓我們能夠提供的服務的一部分。當然，我們預計能夠提供的電力將遠遠超過最初的 1.2 吉瓦。

So the intent is contract that first tranche and then we'll continue to identify generation and transmission capacity expansion opportunities as we get to a certain point in the predevelopment of those projects to where we are confident in the timing and level of capacity available for us to be able to offer, and we'll go to the market and offer another tranche service to that uncommitted queue.

因此，我們的目標是先簽訂第一批合同，然後隨著專案前期開發進展到一定階段，我們將繼續尋找發電和輸電能力擴張的機會，直到我們對能夠提供的容量的時機和水平充滿信心，屆時我們將進入市場，向尚未承諾的客戶隊列提供另一批服務。

And that's the model that we anticipate being able to deploy going forward. Bottom line is we anticipate being able to continuously offer capacity to eat into that 20 gigawatts. And we think the 1.2-gigs that we've offered recently is just the first step into that trajectory.

這就是我們預計未來能夠部署的模式。總之，我們預計能夠持續提供產能，以消耗這 20 吉瓦的電力。我們認為，最近提供的 1.2G 容量只是邁向這一目標的第一步。

Travis Miller, Morningstar.

崔維斯米勒，晨星公司。

Just want to confirm on the guidance for '26. There's no contribution from the rate case. Is that correct? And then if that's correct, any ideas or guidance you could give on what maybe a dollar increase or so to speak, would be in the back end of the year? Any thoughts there?

想確認一下 2026 年的指導。利率案沒有貢獻。是這樣嗎？如果情況屬實，您能否就年底可能出現的一美元成長幅度提供一些想法或指導？大家有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, Travis, you're correct. We have not made any assumptions for rate case conclusion that's informed 2026 guidance. As we said, we do anticipate the case resolving in the last quarter of the year. And given that such a small quarter for us anyhow and the timing just didn't seem prudent for us to be able to make any assumptions at this point.

是的，崔維斯，你說得對。我們沒有對利率案件的結論做出任何假設，也沒有對 2026 年的指導意見做出任何假設。正如我們所說，我們預計該案件將在今年最後一個季度解決。而且考慮到這對我們來說只是一個很小的季度，現在做出任何假設似乎都不明智。

But certainly, once the case concludes, that will allow us to step back and reevaluate the constructive nature of the outcome and what that means in terms of forward-looking guidance.

但可以肯定的是，一旦案件結束，我們將能夠退後一步，重新評估結果的建設性意義以及這對未來發展方向的意義。

So we'd look to do that at that time as well as the details around how the formula rate would work both timing and level on a go-forward basis. So look for further updates once the case concludes on all those aspects.

因此，屆時我們將著手處理此事，以及未來公式利率的運作細節，包括時間和水準。因此，一旦案件所有這些方面都調查完畢，請關注後續更新。

Okay. Makes sense. And then separately, that 4.5 gigawatts of committed customers, can you kind of elaborate on who those customers are? And maybe is any of that going to kind of your system wide base with residential or small commercial? And how do you -- how would you break up that 4.5 gigawatts?

好的。有道理。另外，關於這 4.5 吉瓦的忠實客戶，您能否詳細說明這些客戶是誰？或許這些產品會應用在你們面向住宅或小型商業用戶的系統範圍內？那麼，你會如何分配這 4.5 吉瓦的電力呢？

Yes. The 4.5 gigawatts is a nice balance and blend between incremental industrial growth, such as chip manufacturing, TSMC and Amcor being examples of that as well as their supply basis. As well as, of course, data centers that are already in development or even in service, but we expect to ramp through this period.

是的。4.5 吉瓦的裝置容量很好地平衡了工業成長（例如晶片製造，台積電和安姆科就是這方面的例子）及其供應基礎。當然，還有那些已經在開發或已經投入使用的資料中心，但我們預期這段期間內將逐步擴大規模。

And then importantly, we continue to see just steady and robust residential and small business growth. So I'd say that's one of the hallmarks of our growth story is a very diversified story, not too dependent on one industry or customer base or another Maricopa County just recently ranked top County for economic development in 2025. And it's the third fastest in the US, phoenix just rank number one of the top 15 growth markets for manufacturing. And all of that is separate from a data center story. It just shows the true underlying growth.

更重要的是，我們繼續看到住宅和小型企業保持穩定強勁的成長。所以我認為，我們成長故事的一大特色就是非常多元化，不太依賴某個產業或客戶群。馬里科帕縣最近被評為 2025 年經濟發展最佳縣。而且它是美國成長速度第三快的城市，鳳凰城在製造業成長最快的 15 個市場中排名第一。而這一切都與資料中心的故事無關。這恰恰反映了其真正的潛在成長。

We're also pleased to see that affordability still is a hallmark of our service territory, favorable cost of living. Phoenix inflation is growing at about 1.4% versus national average at 2.9%. So I think there's a lot of drivers behind why we're seeing diversified growth in that 4.5 gigawatts represents all sectors, which gives us confidence in the growth rate, but also means that we've got a lot of infrastructure to deploy to continue to keep up with the various sectors that are demanding it.

我們也欣喜地看到，經濟實惠仍是我們服務區域的一大特點，生活成本低。鳳凰城的通貨膨脹率約為 1.4%，而全國平均為 2.9%。所以我認為，我們看到多元化成長的背後有很多驅動因素，4.5 吉瓦涵蓋了所有行業，這讓我們對成長率充滿信心，但也意味著我們需要部署大量基礎設施，才能繼續滿足各個行業的需求。

Okay. Yes. No, that sounds good. And then -- most of that 4.5 gigawatts go into rate base? Or is some of that the subscription model that you were talking about that might be outside of rate base?

好的。是的。不，聽起來不錯。然後——這4.5吉瓦的大部分都用來計入電價基數？或者，您提到的訂閱模式中是否包含一些不在費率基礎上的部分？

Well, let's be clear, all of our investment goes in the rate base. The subscription model still goes into rate base, we are just contracting with those customers. Think about it as more of a special rate agreement rather than out of rate base, and that special rate agreement just ensures that growth pays for growth and that the timing of their ramp coincides with the timing of the ramp of the infrastructure to be built to serve them as well as potentially getting their help to finance some of that infrastructure so that we maintain a healthy balance sheet as we grow these rate base investments, specifically for data centers.

明確地說，我們所有的投資都投入了利率基礎。訂閱模式仍然會納入費率體系，我們只是與這些客戶簽訂合約而已。可以把它看作是一項特殊的費率協議，而不是從費率基礎中劃出的協議。這項特殊的費率協議確保成長能夠帶來成長，並確保他們的業務成長時間與為他們服務的基礎設施建設的成長時間相吻合，同時也可能獲得他們的幫助來為部分基礎設施提供融資，從而在我們增加這些費率基礎投資（特別是數據中心投資）的同時，保持健康的資產負債表。

So it's all going in the rate base. It's just a matter of how you recover the dollars is really the difference in the subscription model.

所以這一切都計入了利率基數。訂閱模式的真正差異在於如何收回成本。

Steve D’Ambrisi, RBC Capital Markets.

Steve DâtreAmbrisi，RBC Capital Markets。

I just was hoping for a little bit more color on the year-over-year change in sales growth as an EPS driver. I know for '25 guidance, you had embedded $0.58 and for '26 guidance, it looks like you're embedding $0.39. I guess I would just step back and say it doesn't seem like the magnitude or mix is really that different given both years were 4% to 6% total, of which 3% to 5% was from large C&I. So can you just give a little color there? Is it mix within the C&I classes? Or what's driving the difference in EPS magnitude uplift from sales growth?

我只是希望能夠更詳細地分析一下銷售額年增率作為每股收益驅動因素的情況。我知道你們在2025年的業績指引中嵌入了0.58美元，而在2026年的業績指引中，似乎嵌入了0.39美元。我想說的是，考慮到這兩年的總成長率都在4%到6%之間，其中3%到5%來自大型工商企業，因此，這兩個年份的成長率在規模或組成上似乎並沒有太大區別。能稍微潤飾一下嗎？是否在C&I類車輛中混合使用？或者說，是什麼因素導致了銷售成長對每股盈餘幅度提升的差異？

Steve, it's Andrew. Sure. Yes, so you're right, '26 does have a bit of a smaller contribution there. And that's really the fact that we're talking about a pretty big group of customers that has puts and takes in their ramp rate from year to year.

史蒂夫，我是安德魯。當然。是的，你說得對，'26 年的貢獻確實較小一些。事實上，我們談論的是一大群客戶，他們的成長速度每年都會有所波動。

And some of those -- as we've been in early data center market, we've been able to develop more sophisticated forecasting on a customer-by-customer basis, who's testing equipment, who's actually ramping. And so you do see some variation within the customer class.

而其中一些——由於我們一直處於資料中心市場的早期階段，我們已經能夠根據每個客戶的情況，開發出更複雜的預測方法，例如誰在測試設備，誰在實際擴大規模。因此，你會發現客戶群內部存在一些差異。

So the residential small business number is relatively stable. And as we've seen this quarter and our guidance for this year, the expectation of continued pretty large new customer additions and an actual positive contribution from residential sales despite the fact that we've continued to have energy efficiency and distributed generation press up against that.

因此，居民區小型企業的數量相對穩定。正如我們在本季度和今年的預測中所看到的，儘管能源效率和分散式發電持續對住宅銷售構成壓力，但我們仍預期新增客戶數量將繼續大幅增長，住宅銷售也將做出實際的積極貢獻。

So it really is the year-to-year variability in some of our large loan customers. I think where we really want to focus is the fact that this is a long-term set of customers with the trajectory now that we feel confident about through [2018], including raising that sales guidance by 100 basis points over that period. And the fact that, that means that the (inaudible) contribution that steps up by 100 basis points as well. So over the long term, feeling really good. There is some intra-year variability.

所以，這確實是我們一些大額貸款客戶逐年波動造成的。我認為我們真正想要關注的是，這是一群長期客戶，我們對他們目前的業績發展軌跡充滿信心，並計劃在 2018 年之前將銷售預期提高 100 個基點。而事實上，這意味著（聽不清楚的）貢獻也將增加 100 個基點。所以從長遠來看，感覺真的很好。存在一些年內波動。

But once you pair that with continued customer growth, residential growth and then the continued conversion of our transmission investments into revenue through our formula. We're feeling pretty confident about the ultimate outcome.

但是，一旦將這一點與持續的客戶成長、住宅成長以及透過我們的公式將輸電投資持續轉化為收入結合起來，就會發生這種情況。我們對最終結果相當有信心。

That's really helpful. And I guess like that would be like the put and take versus what kind of we were assuming is just the sales growth versus transmission. I know Julien asked about it, but can you talk a little bit more about that clearly throughout the rest of the plan, transmission growth steps up materially into '28? And so does that $0.55 benefit scale linearly with the increase in transmission spending? Or is there something that's causing super normal growth in recoveries in --

這真的很有幫助。我想這就像是買賣交易，而不是我們之前假設的銷售成長與傳輸之間的關係。我知道 Julien 問過這個問題，但您能否更清楚地談談，在整個計劃中，輸電增長在 2028 年將大幅提升？那麼，這0.55美元的收益是否與輸電支出的增加呈線性關係呢？或者說，是否存在某種因素導致了康復率的超常增長？--

Yes. No. Over time, it should be proportionate to the investment. We earn pretty quickly, right, when we're putting assets into service. I think the thing that will happen is it will get a little bit lumpier because in the near term, that $300 million to $400 million of run rate projects, those are smaller projects that get done within a given year, maybe over two years at [MAC]. And we're moving forward into lines that may take longer to build.

是的。不。從長遠來看，它應該與投資成比例。當我們把資產投入使用時，我們很快就能獲得收益，對吧。我認為接下來會發生的情況是，項目進度會變得有些波動，因為短期內，那些3億到4億美元的年度項目，都是一些規模較小的項目，它們通常會在一年內完成，也可能需要兩年左右的時間。[蘋果]。我們正在推進一些可能需要更長時間才能建成的生產線。

Some of the things that we're looking at are can you energize them on [sectialized] basis so that we can reduce the regulatory lag if we're building a 100-mile line, can you do it in segments? That's the type of thing that we're thinking about to make sure that we continue to translate that opportunity into earnings.

我們正在研究的一些問題是，能否分段供電，以便減少監管滯後；如果要建設一條 100 英里的線路，能否分段進行？我們正在考慮的就是這類問題，以確保我們能夠繼續將這種機會轉化為收益。

The other thing that's been nice about the transmission opportunity is that it's part of the broader wholesale market. And so the opportunity to offset some of the impact to our retail customer base through willing rolling over our system has been a big part of our customer affordability story as well. So there's multiple benefits to doing it. We are doing some larger projects. So the scaling will ultimately get there over the long term.

輸電機會的另一個好處是，它是更廣泛的批發市場的一部分。因此，透過自願過渡到我們的系統來抵消對零售客戶群的部分影響，也是我們提高客戶可負擔性的重要組成部分。所以這樣做有很多好處。我們正在進行一些大型專案。因此，從長遠來看，規模最終會實現的。

But intra year, there could be some lumpiness just given you're talking about that increment above the core $300 million to $400 million being longer lead time projects that can take a few years to get into service.

但是，年內可能會出現一些波動，因為你談論的是核心 3 億至 4 億美元之外的增量，這些增量是周期較長的項目，可能需要幾年時間才能投入使用。

Thank you. That completes our Q&A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。各位，今天的活動到此結束。您可以暫時斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您的參與。