Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2024 fourth-quarter earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amanda Ho.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人 Amanda Ho。

Ma'am, the floor is yours.

女士，請您發言。

Thank you, Matthew.

謝謝你，馬修。

I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings, recent developments, and operating performance.

我要感謝大家參加本次電話會議和網路廣播，回顧我們 2024 年第四季和全年的收益、最新發展和經營業績。

Our speakers today will be our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Guldner; APS President, Ted Geisler; and our CFO, Andrew Cooper.

今天的演講者是我們的董事長兼執行長 Jeff Guldner； APS 總裁 Ted Geisler；以及我們的財務長 Andrew Cooper。

Jacob Tetlow, COO, is also here with us.

營運長 Jacob Tetlow 也和我們在一起。

First, I need to cover a few details with you. The slides that we will be using are available on our Investor Relations website along with our earnings release and related information. Today's comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Our annual 2024 Form 10-K was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language, as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosure.

首先，我需要向您介紹一些細節。我們將使用的幻燈片以及我們的收益報告和相關資訊均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。今天的評論和我們的幻燈片包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。我們的年度 2024 年度 10-K 表格已於今天早上提交。請參閱該文件中的前瞻性陳述、警示性語言以及風險因素和 MD&A 部分，其中指明了可能導致實際結果與我們的揭露內容有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through March 4, 2025.

本次通話的重播將在未來 30 天內在我們的網站上提供。截止到 2025 年 3 月 4 日，您也可以透過電話購買。

I will now turn the call over to Jeff.

現在我將電話轉給傑夫。

Great. Thanks, Amanda.

偉大的。謝謝，阿曼達。

Thank you all for joining us today. I want to look back on 2024 and just say I'm extremely proud of our company and all of our accomplishments. I'm going to provide several updates today and share the successes we were able to achieve despite the challenges that we faced. And we met or exceeded nearly every target we set for ourselves, including delivering strong service reliability to our customers.

感謝大家今天的參與。回顧 2024 年，我只想說，我為我們的公司和我們所取得的所有成就感到無比自豪。今天我將提供一些最新消息，並分享我們面臨挑戰但仍能取得的成功。我們達到或超越了我們為自己設定的幾乎所有目標，包括為客戶提供強大的服務可靠性。

We made significant progress in the last year, but we're not done, and we look forward to continuing to execute on our plan. On the regulatory front, we were able to achieve a constructive outcome in our last rate case, and even more importantly, the commission has been committed to finding ways to reduce regulatory lags.

我們在去年取得了重大進展，但我們還沒有完成，我們期待繼續執行我們的計劃。在監管方面，我們在上一個利率案件中取得了建設性的結果，更重要的是，委員會一直致力於尋找減少監管滯後的方法。

In December, the commission approved a policy statement on formula rates recognizing the need for better regulatory recovery to support our customers and the tremendous growth that we're seeing in Arizona. We started the year with two new commissioners, Commissioner Walden and Commissioner Lopez, who joined the bench in January with Commissioner Marquez Peterson.

12 月，委員會批准了有關公式費率的政策聲明，承認需要更好的監管恢復來支持我們的客戶和我們在亞利桑那州看到的巨大增長。今年年初，我們迎來了兩位新委員，沃爾登委員和洛佩茲委員，他們於一月份與馬奎斯彼得森委員一起加入委員會。

In addition, Commissioner Thompson and Commissioner Myers were elected to Chairman and Vice Chairman respectively, and we look forward to continuing to work collaboratively with the new bench of commissioners.

此外，湯普森委員和邁爾斯委員分別被選為主席和副主席，我們期待繼續與新一屆委員合作。

Turning to the operations side. I want to start by recognizing our field team's exceptional execution in 2024. I'm especially proud of our employees for prioritizing safety and ending the year with zero serious injuries or fatalities or SIFs.

轉向營運方面。首先，我要表揚我們現場團隊在 2024 年的優異表現。我對我們的員工特別感到自豪，因為他們將安全放在首位，並在年底實現了零重傷、零死亡或零事故。

We were able to accomplish this through 113 consecutive days of 100 degrees and above in Phoenix. That's the longest stretch in Arizona history. And APS customers set a peak energy demand record of 8,210 megawatts on Sunday, August 4, breaking a prior record of 8,162 megawatts from 2023.

我們在鳳凰城連續 113 天 100 度以上的高溫下完成了這個目標。這是亞利桑那州歷史上最長的一段時期。8 月 4 日星期日，APS 客戶創下了 8,210 兆瓦的峰值能源需求記錄，打破了 2023 年創下的 8,162 兆瓦的紀錄。

Our generating fleet operated extremely well and was available when our customers critically needed the power. For the 16th consecutive year and the 20th overall, Palo Verde Generating Station's three nuclear units exceeded 30 million megawatt hours of net generation and achieved a capacity factor of 93.7%.

我們的發電機組運作良好，在客戶急需電力時隨時可用。帕洛維德發電廠三台核電機組連續第 16 年、全年第 20 年淨發電量超過 3,000 萬兆瓦時，容量係數達 93.7%。

Finally, in December, I announced my retirement date of March 31. When I became CEO over five years ago, we began executing on a vision to improve our customer experience, to position the company for long-term financial health, and to enable the workforce of the future.

最終，我在 12 月宣布了我的退休日期：3 月 31 日。五年多前，當我成為執行長時，我們開始執行一項願景，即改善客戶體驗，使公司保持長期財務健康，並為未來的勞動力提供支援。

And that future provides both reliable and carbon-free electricity. Ted and I have had a close and trusted partnership throughout our tenures, enabling a seamless succession and continued focus on advancing our company's strategy.

未來我們將提供可靠且無碳的電力。泰德和我在整個任職期間一直保持著密切和信任的合作關係，實現了無縫繼任並繼續專注於推進公司策略。

The strength of our team and the dedication of our people is truly what makes this company special, and I can't fully express how proud I am to have been a part of this journey.

我們團隊的力量和員工的奉獻精神確實使這家公司與眾不同，我無法完全表達我作為這段旅程的一部分的自豪感。

And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Ted to talk about our future and what we can look forward to.

接下來，我將把時間交給泰德來談談我們的未來以及我們可以期待的事情。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

And first, I'd like to take this opportunity to recognize everything you have done to create a strong foundation for our company's success with your collaborative leadership approach over the past five years. Under your leadership, our team has achieved performance improvement across all aspects of our business, including improving our customers' experience and the company's long-term financial health.

首先，我想藉此機會對您在過去五年中透過協作領導方式為我們公司的成功奠定堅實基礎所做的一切表示讚賞。在您的領導下，我們的團隊在業務的各個方面都實現了績效提升，包括改善客戶體驗和公司的長期財務狀況。

We're truly grateful for your years of service to Pinnacle West and APS. And I'm personally grateful for the trust and confidence you've placed in me during these years.

我們非常感謝您多年來為 Pinnacle West 和 APS 所做的服務。我個人非常感激大家這些年來對我的信任與信心。

Thanks, Ted.

謝謝，泰德。

Looking ahead, I'm honored and humbled to continue serving our customers and shareholders through an era of unprecedented growth. Our team is focused on robust grid expansion, improving the timely recovery of our investments, delivering an exceptional customer experience, and a relentless focus on talent development.

展望未來，我很榮幸能夠在前所未有的成長時代繼續為我們的客戶和股東服務。我們的團隊專注於強勁的電網擴張、提高投資的及時回收、提供卓越的客戶體驗以及堅持不懈地關注人才發展。

I firmly believe we have the right strategy, the right team, and the right culture to deliver consistently for our customers while creating sustained competitive value for our shareholders. Arizona is well-positioned for long term growth, and our company is committed to enabling this growth through strong execution of our generation, transmission, and distribution investments.

我堅信我們擁有正確的策略、正確的團隊和正確的文化，能夠始終如一地為我們的客戶提供服務，同時為我們的股東創造持續的競爭價值。亞利桑那州具有長期成長的有利條件，我們公司致力於透過大力執行發電、輸電和配電投資來實現這一成長。

We recognize the importance of creating customer value and we remain focused on delivering an excellent customer experience. Our employees are putting customers first and working towards our goal of achieving an industry leading customer experience.

我們認識到創造客戶價值的重要性，並始終致力於提供卓越的客戶體驗。我們的員工將客戶放在第一位，並致力於實現業界領先的客戶體驗的目標。

Because of this commitment, we made solid progress on that front 2024, finishing the year as a top performer among utilities for power quality and reliability, the top performer in helping customers choose rate options, a top performer in helping customers lower their bills, and a top performer for overall digital experience.

由於這項承諾，我們在 2024 年取得了堅實的進展，並在當年成為電力品質和可靠性方面表現最佳的公用事業公司、在幫助客戶選擇費率方案方面表現最佳的公用事業公司、在幫助客戶降低帳單方面表現最佳的公用事業公司以及在整體數位體驗方面表現最佳的公用事業公司。

Our customer base which for decades leaned heavily residential, is now more diverse than ever, mirroring the diversification in our growing Arizona economy, a robust increase in commercial and industrial customers in our service territory, including new chip manufacturing and expanded data center operations, is leading the strong economic growth across our entire state.

幾十年來，我們的客戶群主要集中在住宅領域，但現在比以往任何時候都更加多樣化，這反映了我們不斷增長的亞利桑那州經濟的多樣化，我們服務區域內的商業和工業客戶強勁增長，包括新的晶片製造和擴大的數據中心運營，正在引領整個州的強勁經濟增長。

As an example, construction continues in Northwest Phoenix on the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company facility. By the end of the decade, TSMC is expected to have invested $65 billion in three dedicated semiconductor fabs.

例如，台灣半導體製造公司工廠正在鳳凰城西北部繼續建造。到本世紀末，台積電預計將在三座專用半導體工廠投資 650 億美元。

The first fab began high volume chip production in the fourth quarter of 2024. Amkor Technology also announced plans to invest $2 billion in the semiconductor advanced packaging and testing facility to be built in nearby Peoria, Arizona, creating more than 2,000 jobs.

第一家晶圓廠將於 2024 年第四季開始大量生產晶片。安靠科技也宣布計劃投資 20 億美元在亞利桑那州皮奧裡亞附近建造半導體先進封裝和測試工廠，創造 2,000 多個工作機會。

Both companies, along with an already strong Arizona presence by Intel, is expected to stimulate many suppliers and related manufacturing and service entities to establish operations here, further increasing growth for our state and APS.

這兩家公司，加上英特爾在亞利桑那州的強大影響力，預計將刺激許多供應商和相關製造和服務實體在這裡開展業務，進一步促進我們州和 APS 的成長。

TSMC in the nearby science and manufacturing park alone is anticipated to create approximately 62,000 jobs. Meanwhile, our residential customer base also continues to grow. In 2024, we installed more than 32,000 new residential meters, the most since before the Great Recession.

預計僅附近的科學製造園區的台積電將創造約 62,000 個就業機會。同時，我們的住宅客戶群也在持續成長。2024 年，我們安裝了超過 32,000 個新的住宅電錶，這是大衰退之前最多的一次。

Importantly, we see residential growth across our entire service territory. For example, the Yuma area saw 34% year over year growth in meter sets, and Casa Grande saw a 36% year over year growth. Finally, metro Phoenix experienced 49% year over year growth in new meter sets.

重要的是，我們看到整個服務區域的住宅都在成長。例如，尤馬地區的電錶數量年增 34%，卡薩格蘭德地區的電錶數量較去年同期增加 36%。最後，鳳凰城都會區新電錶數量較去年同期增加了 49%。

We are well positioned to capitalize on this demand and have embarked on the largest transmission and generation expansion in our company's history. In fact, we recently procured nearly 7,300 megawatts of new resources to be in service between 2026 and 2028.

我們已做好準備，充分利用這項需求，並已著手進行公司史上規模最大的輸電和發電擴建。事實上，我們最近採購了近 7,300 兆瓦的新資源，將在 2026 年至 2028 年期間投入使用。

We're committed to serving Arizona's economic and population growth responsibly while maintaining a top tier reliability for our customers as we connect new large customer facilities, light chip manufacturers, and data centers.

我們致力於負責任地服務亞利桑那州的經濟和人口成長，同時在連接新的大型客戶設施、光晶片製造商和資料中心時為客戶提供一流的可靠性。

We continue to make progress on responsibly decarbonizing the electric grid while focusing on reliability and affordability for our customers. Last year, we delivered top quartile reliability for our customers through another record year of summer heat and peak demand, while at the same time, generating 54% of our total energy mix from carbon-free resources.

我們繼續在負責任地實現電網脫碳方面取得進展，同時專注於為客戶提供可靠性和可負擔性。去年，我們經歷了又一個創紀錄的夏季高溫和高峰需求，為客戶提供了最高四分位的可靠性，同時，我們總能源結構的 54% 來自無碳資源。

We're also working to improve timely investment recovery through innovative rate design and regulatory outcomes that benefit our customers and our company. This began last year when we secured the new system reliability benefit mechanism for improving cost recovery on new generation investments, and we look forward to continuing to collaborate with the commission and stakeholders on implementing a formula rate plan in the future.

我們也致力於透過創新的利率設計和監管成果來提高投資的及時回收，從而使我們的客戶和公司受益。這項工作始於去年，當時我們確保了新的系統可靠性效益機制，以提高新一代投資的成本回收率，我們期待未來將繼續與委員會和利益相關者合作實施公式費率計劃。

We're focused on executing our plan and expect to file a new rate case mid-year 2025 to support Arizona's economic expansion.

我們專注於執行我們的計劃，並預計在 2025 年中期提交新的費率案例，以支持亞利桑那州的經濟擴張。

Thank you for your time today.

感謝您今天抽出時間。

I'll now turn it over to Andrew, who will discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings and our forward-looking financial expectations.

現在我將把時間交給安德魯，他將討論我們 2024 年第四季和全年的收益以及我們的前瞻性財務預期。

Thanks, Ted and Jeff, and thanks again to everyone for joining us today.

謝謝泰德和傑夫，再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

Earlier this morning, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results. I'll share those results and highlight key drivers, and we'll review our full year 2025 financial guidance which was provided in Q3 2024.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第四季和全年財務表現。我將分享這些結果並強調關鍵驅動因素，我們將審查 2024 年第三季提供的 2025 年全年財務指引。

We lost $0.06 per share during the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to a flat result in Q4 of 2023. Our largest positive drivers year over year were new rates as well as benefits from weather and continued sales growth. These were offset by negative drivers in O&M, D&A, financing costs, and other net.

2024 年第四季，我們每股虧損 0.06 美元，而 2023 年第四季的業績持平。與去年同期相比，我們最大的積極驅動力是新利率以及天氣帶來的好處和持續的銷售成長。這些被營運和維護、折舊和攤提、融資成本和其他淨額的負面驅動因素所抵消。

For the full year 2024, we ended at $5.24 per share, an increase of $0.83 per share from 2023, slightly above our updated annual guidance range. The constructive rate case outcome, as well as strong sales and usage growth throughout the year were the largest positive drivers of this increase.

2024 年全年，我們的每股收益為 5.24 美元，較 2023 年每股收益增加 0.83 美元，略高於我們更新的年度指引範圍。建設性利率案例結果以及全年強勁的銷售和使用成長是這一成長的最大積極驅動力。

We also had benefits from our approved surcharges and positive contributions from weather. Offsetting these benefits were increases in O&M, D&A, and debt financing costs, as well as share dilution from our equity issuance.

我們還受益於已批准的附加費和天氣的積極貢獻。抵銷這些收益的是 O&M、D&A 和債務融資成本的增加，以及我們發行股票造成的股份稀釋。

We saw strong and consistent customer and sales growth continue throughout 2024 with customer growth coming in at 2.1% for the full year. This was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range of 1.5% to 2.5% and continues the trend of steady customer growth each year.

我們看到，2024 年全年客戶和銷售額將持續強勁且穩定地成長，全年客戶成長率達到 2.1%。這略高於我們 1.5% 至 2.5% 的指導範圍中點，並延續了每年客戶穩定成長的趨勢。

Last quarter, we had raised our full year 2024 sales growth guidance from 2% to 4%, up to 4% to 6% to match our long-term growth guidance after seeing multiple quarters of strong growth, particularly in the C&I segment.

上個季度，在看到多個季度的強勁成長（尤其是在 C&I 領域）後，我們將 2024 年全年銷售成長預期從 2% 上調至 4% 至 6%，以符合我們的長期成長預期。

This strong growth continued in the fourth quarter with weather normalized sales growth coming in at 5.5%. We ended the full year near the high end of our sales guidance -- sales growth guidance range at 5.7%. This growth was driven by both consistent residential sales growth of 1.1% for the full year and strong growth in our C&I segment of 9.7% for the year.

這種強勁成長勢頭在第四季得以延續，天氣正常化後的銷售成長率達到 5.5%。我們全年的銷售額成長接近預期的高端——預期成長範圍為 5.7%。這一增長得益於全年住宅銷售額持續增長 1.1% 以及 C&I 部門全年 9.7% 的強勁增長。

As Ted mentioned, this growth trend reflects the diversity of our Arizona economy, as we saw growth across a breadth of C&I sectors from small business to manufacturing. The robust weather benefit in 2024 allowed us the opportunity to de-risk future spend.

正如泰德所提到的，這種成長趨勢反映了亞利桑那州經濟的多樣性，因為我們看到從小型企業到製造業等各個商業和工業領域都在成長。2024 年強勁的天氣優勢使我們有機會降低未來支出的風險。

We are focused on cost efficiencies, and we continue to work towards our goal of declining O&M per megawatt hour. Cost management is a priority, and we will continue to strive for operational excellence and efficiency through our lean culture and initiatives.

我們注重成本效率，並持續努力實現每兆瓦時降低營運和維護成本的目標。成本管理是首要任務，我們將繼續透過精實文化和措施努力實現卓越營運和效率。

Looking ahead, we are reiterating all aspects of 2025 guidance provided on our third quarter 2024 call. Our weather normalized sales growth guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 4% to 6%, matching our long-term expectations, with extra high load factor C&I customers contributing 3% to 5%.

展望未來，我們重申在 2024 年第三季電話會議上提供的 2025 年指導的所有方面。我們對 2025 年天氣標準化銷售成長的預期保持不變，為 4% 至 6%，這與我們的長期預期相符，其中超高載客率的 C&I 客戶將貢獻 3% 至 5%。

As Ted talked about earlier, we continue to see both residents and businesses viewing Arizona as a highly attractive destination to call home. We are also reaffirming our capital and financing plans and are already making progress on both.

正如泰德之前所說，我們繼續看到居民和企業都將亞利桑那州視為一個極具吸引力的居住地。我們也重申了我們的資本和融資計劃，並且已經在這兩個方面取得進展。

Our capital plan continues to focus on strengthening infrastructure, improving reliability, and meeting the accelerating demands of our growing service territory. These investments include strategic transmission and new generation resources, with over 40% of our future capital investments being tracked via our system reliability benefit surcharge or through our FERC formula rates, allowing for more timely recovery.

我們的資本計畫繼續專注於加強基礎設施、提高可靠性以及滿足不斷增長的服務區域日益增長的需求。這些投資包括戰略傳輸和新一代資源，其中超過 40% 的未來資本投資將透過我們的系統可靠性效益附加費或透過我們的 FERC 公式費率進行跟踪，從而實現更及時的回收。

Our financing plan supports a balanced utility capital structure matched to our spending profile and includes a mix of both debt and equity. We are focused on maintaining a solid balance sheet and stable credit ratings. We completed our block equity in early 2024 and closed out the year by opening it at the market program, consistent with the cadence of our investment.

我們的融資計劃支持與我們的支出狀況相符的平衡公用事業資本結構，包括債務和股權的組合。我們專注於維持穩健的資產負債表和穩定的信用評級。我們在 2024 年初完成了整體股權投資，並在年底按照市場計劃開啟了這項投資計劃，這與我們的投資節奏一致。

Our laser focus on cost management, balanced capital investment and financing plans along with the strong growth trajectory of our service territory allows us to reaffirm our long term 5% to 7% EPS growth guidance based on the midpoint of our original 2024 guide of $4.60 to $4.80 per share.

我們專注於成本管理、平衡的資本投資和融資計劃，加上我們服務領域的強勁增長軌跡，使我們能夠根據我們最初的 2024 年每股收益 4.60 美元至 4.80 美元的中點，重申我們的長期每股收益增長 5% 至 7% 的指導。

We ended 2024 strong and our confidence in our plan for 2025 and the long term, while continuing to recognize and address the challenges of regulatory lag with our regulators.

我們在 2024 年取得了強勁成績，對 2025 年及長期計劃充滿信心，同時繼續與監管機構共同認識和應對監管滯後的挑戰。

We are focused on executing our plans to deliver reliable, affordable service to our increasingly diversified and growing service territory while maintaining financial health and creating value into the future.

我們專注於執行我們的計劃，為我們日益多樣化和不斷增長的服務領域提供可靠、實惠的服務，同時保持財務健康並為未來創造價值。

This concludes our prepared remarks.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。

I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

朱利安·杜穆林·史密斯（Julien Dumoulin-Smith），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

And first off, Jeff, Ted, congrats. It's been a pleasure and welcome indeed. So I want to just leave with that here.

首先，傑夫、泰德，恭喜你們。我真的很榮幸並且非常歡迎。所以我只想就此打住。

Thanks, Julien. Pass our regards on to Jamison as well.

謝謝，朱利安。也請代我向 Jamison 問候。

Absolutely, indeed. So maybe just to kick things off here, I mean, obviously making good progress on the core business. With respect to the ACC, it's clarified that it supports settlements in general. And frankly, now we're looking at a formula rate potentially.

絕對是如此。所以也許只是為了在這裡開始，我的意思是，核心業務顯然取得了良好的進展。關於 ACC，已明確表示其總體上支持和解。坦白說，現在我們正在考慮潛在的公式利率。

How do you think about a test case here being able to be settled, right? Do you need to fully litigate in order to see and implement formula rates at this point?

您認為這裡的測試案例能夠解決嗎？您是否需要進行全面訴訟才能了解並實施公式費率？

Yeah. Julien, I appreciate the question.

是的。朱利安，我很感謝你提出這個問題。

We always believe that settlements can lead to good outcomes both for our customers, the regulators, stakeholders, and company. We've got a long track record of constructive settlements in the past. That said, we're not assuming that this case will be settled nor does it need to be settled in order to achieve a constructive outcome.

我們始終相信，和解可以為我們的客戶、監管機構、利害關係人和公司帶來良好的結果。我們過去有著長期建設性解決的記錄。話雖如此，我們並不認為此案會得到解決，也不需要解決才能取得建設性的結果。

So I think our go in default position is to prepare for a litigated case, particularly considering that the filing will likely include details around the formula rate plan. And that'll be a new rate-making concept that we want to make sure we get right and get implemented correctly.

因此，我認為我們採取預設立場是為了應對訴訟案件，特別是考慮到備案文件可能包括有關公式費率計劃的詳細資訊。這將是一個新的利率制定概念，我們希望確保我們理解正確並正確實施。

But we're always open to settlements and to the extent that stakeholders choose to align around a constructive outcome that could be concluded through a settlement. Then I believe we'll be open to do so as well. And it could be that you get some partial areas that you're able to resolve ahead of time.

但我們始終對和解持開放態度，只要利害關係人選擇就可以透過和解達成建設性成果。那我相信我們也會願意這麼做。您可能會遇到一些可以提前解決的部分問題。

So but yeah, first time in the formula for sure.

是的，這確實是第一次採用這個公式。

And maybe a little bit more of a longer term question as you think about it. Obviously, you guys give a CapEx forecast through '27 only and versus some of your peers. And obviously, given the longer dated nature of some of the demand growth, some of the CapEx is a little bit longer dated than we've seen historically.

如果你仔細想想，這可能是一個更長期的問題。顯然，你們僅給出了截至 27 年的資本支出預測，並且與一些同行進行了比較。顯然，考慮到部分需求成長的長期性，部分資本支出的持續時間比我們歷史上看到的要長。

Clearly, I'm cognizant of the low growth coming at the high end of the range. Obviously, the RFP here being exceptionally large. I mean how do you think about CapEx trends beyond the '27 period? I just want to start to needle a little bit on that just given the trends we're seeing from some of your peers and given the robust growth dynamics you're seeing.

顯然，我意識到高端市場的低成長。顯然，這裡的 RFP 非常大。我的意思是，您如何看待 27 年後的資本支出趨勢？鑑於我們從一些同行那裡看到的趨勢以及您所看到的強勁成長動力，我只是想對此進行一些探討。

Hi, Julien. It's Andrew. No, it's a great question.

你好，朱利安。我是安德魯。不，這是一個很好的問題。

And we provide the three years because that's the period in which we forecast in the shorter term. But if you think about the types of projects that we're looking at right now, they're longer data generation projects. They're the high voltage transmission, those longer lead time projects.

我們提供三年的數據是因為這是我們短期預測的時期。但如果你考慮我們現在正在研究的專案類型，它們都是較長的資料生成專案。它們是高壓輸電，那些交付週期較長的項目。

And so those will extend over this period. Frankly, as we look at our generation resources and the ability to through a formula be able to recover distribution and maintenance generation CapEx as well, there are going to be incremental opportunities that we look at as we go out into the future past this rate case and think about the formula rate.

這些將會延續到這個時期。坦白說，當我們審視我們的發電資源以及透過公式收回分配和維護發電資本支出的能力時，我們將會看到一些增量機會，因為我們將在未來超越這個費率案例並思考公式費率。

So between the nature of the projects that may not be captured in a '25 to '27 period other than through being AFUDC construction work in progress. You're talking about. If you look at our strategic transmission plan, you have projects within service states at the end of this decade into the beginning of the next decade.

因此，除了 AFUDC 正在進行的建設工作之外，這些項目的性質可能無法在 25 至 27 年期間捕獲。你在說的是。如果你看一下我們的策略傳輸計劃，你會發現在這個十年末到下一個十年初的服務狀態下有一個項目。

And frankly, as the generation resources that we begin to look at to meet the needs in the 2030s start to develop through the plan, those are going to be longer lead time and larger projects where we look at the variety of ways to finance them.

坦白說，隨著我們開始考慮透過該計劃來滿足 2030 年代的需求的發電資源開始發展，這些項目將會是更長的準備時間和更大的項目，我們將考慮各種方式來為其融資。

And what are we going to own on the generation side versus PPA. So there's a lot that as we get through the other side of this formula rate opportunity, we'll be looking at from a capital allocation and overall size of the capital envelope.

與 PPA 相比，我們在發電方面將擁有什麼？因此，當我們透過這個公式利率機會的另一端時，我們會從資本配置和資本總額的總體規模來考慮很多事情。

Congrats, guys.

恭喜你們，夥伴們。

Michael Lonegan, Evercore.

邁克爾·洛尼根（Michael Lonegan），Evercore。

Congrats, Jeff and Ted.

恭喜傑夫和泰德。

In the past, you've talked about a goal for an evergreen 5% to 7% EPS growth rate. Obviously, formula rates will help improve cost recovery. Sales growth continues to be robust near the top end of expectations. CapEx opportunity is significant, backload of high load customers large. Just wondering if you see an opportunity to increase your growth rate to the high end of 5% to 7% or above that range at some point or does your focus remain on a continuation of 5% to 7% with a smoother profile?

過去，您曾談到實現 5% 至 7% 的常年 EPS 成長率的目標。顯然，配方率將有助於提高成本回收。銷售成長持續強勁，接近預期最高水準。資本支出機會龐大，高負荷客戶的積壓量很大。只是想知道您是否看到有機會在某個時候將成長率提高到 5% 到 7% 的高端或更高，或者您的重點是否仍然是以更平穩的模式繼續保持 5% 到 7% 的成長率？

Yeah. Michael, I think that first and foremost is the continuation of the 5% to 7% with a smoother profile. That is our number one goal right now is to work through this next rate case proceeding to try to find ways to reduce regulatory lag.

是的。邁克爾，我認為最重要的是繼續保持 5% 到 7% 的成長速度，並且保持更平穩的成長曲線。我們現在的首要目標是透過下一個利率案件的審理，試圖找到減少監管落後的方法。

We've also leaned into CapEx that has more contemporaneous recovery like the generation projects including the 800 megawatts we won in the last RFP that -- are should be eligible for the SRB as well as the substantial increases in transmission.

我們也傾向於具有更多同期復甦的資本支出，例如發電項目，包括我們在上一個 RFP 中贏得的 800 兆瓦項目 - 這些項目應該有資格獲得 SRB 以及大幅增加的傳輸。

But certainly, as we look at the long term, we're pretty conservative in how we forecast that top line growth. We've got a long runway in the past experience with data center type customers. And so as we see the ramp up of some of our large industrial customers, as we see the continued residential customer behavior, that this year, we saw 1.1% residential customer growth, which was pretty substantial above the top end of what our expectation was there.

但毫無疑問，從長遠來看，我們對營收成長的預測是相當保守的。我們在過去與資料中心類型客戶合作的經驗中累積了豐富的經驗。因此，我們看到一些大型工業客戶數量的增加，也看到住宅客戶行為的持續成長，今年，我們看到住宅客戶成長率為 1.1%，這相當可觀，高於我們預期的最高水準。

So as we look at those customer classes and on the residential side, a continuation of trends around kind of the acceleration of new rooftop solar, we'll continue to look at what that top line looks like. But number one is getting through the formula rate opportunity and the chance to have a smoother path of earnings going forward.

因此，當我們觀察這些客戶類別和住宅方面時，我們會繼續關注新屋頂太陽能加速發展的趨勢。但最重要的是獲得公式利率機會和未來更平穩的獲利路徑的機會。

And then secondly, I was wondering if you could share your thoughts and talk about the level of support from legislators for House Bill 2201 proposed in Arizona. That would address wildfire mitigation plans and proposed limitations on liabilities as it pertains to class action lawsuits, damage claims, and other items.

其次，我想知道您是否可以分享您的想法並談談立法者對亞利桑那州提出的第 2201 號眾議院法案的支持程度。這將解決野火緩解計劃和與集體訴訟、損害索賠和其他事項相關的責任限制提案。

I'm just wondering what your thoughts and confidence level is in favorable legislation being passed.

我只是想知道您對通過有利立法的想法和信心程度。

Michael, I appreciate the question.

邁克爾，我很感謝你提出這個問題。

It's still pretty early in the process. It's a House Bill and it's still in the House. So we'll continue to monitor. Of course, we support it as well as many other organizations throughout the state, firefighters association, many of the unions, other utilities. Really all those that have been paying attention to wildfire risk throughout our country and the West in particular realize that any legislation that's going to help establish guidelines and standards for how to be better around wildfire prevention and ensure that all entities are aligned on what good wildfire prevention measures look like is probably good legislation for any state.

這個過程還處於相當早期的階段。這是一份眾議院法案，目前仍在眾議院審議。因此我們會繼續監控。當然，我們以及全州的許多其他組織、消防員協會、許多工會和其他公用事業組織都支持它。實際上，所有關注我國尤其是西方國家野火風險的人都意識到，任何有助於制定更好地預防野火的指導方針和標準，並確保所有實體都對良好的野火預防措施達成一致的立法，對於任何州來說，都可能是好的立法。

And so we support it. We think that there's forward momentum and progress and we'll continue to monitor it along the way. But probably too early to be able to anticipate any final conclusion at this point.

因此我們支持它。我們認為這是一個前進的動力和進展，我們將繼續關注這一進程。但現在預測最終結論可能還為時過早。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Travis Miller, Morningstar.

崔維斯·米勒，晨星。

I got to echo the congratulations to both of you, Jeff, over the last five years.

傑夫，我要向你們兩位表示祝賀，祝賀你們過去五年來的成就。

A real quick clarification on the major 2025 rate case. As the formula rates go, how does that go together, right? Would it be then the next rate case that you would implement formula rates because obviously, this would be the historical?

對 2025 年主要利率案例進行快速澄清。按照公式費率，它們是如何結合在一起的，對嗎？那麼，在下一個利率案例中，您是否會實施公式利率，因為顯然，這將是歷史性的？

So how is that kind of timing going to work if the commission does support formula rates as part of the filing?

那麼，如果委員會確實支持公式利率作為備案的一部分，那麼這種時間安排將如何實施？

Yeah. Travis, I appreciate the question.

是的。崔維斯，我很感謝你的提問。

The way we would anticipate it working is this next case would really look like a traditional rate case based on a historic test year with post-test year plan. So if you assume a mid 2025 filing, let's anticipate a conclusion of a case perhaps by the end of 2026. And then if that included designed for a formula rate plan on a go forward basis consistent with the commission's policy statement, which of course is orienting a formula rate plan based on a historic test year, then you could assume as soon as one year later a formula rate plan would then take into account any adjustments that would be made based on whatever the formula rate plan is intended to adjust.

我們預期其運作方式是，下一個案例實際上看起來像是基於歷史測試年和測試後年計劃的傳統利率案例。因此，如果您假設在 2025 年中期提交申請，那麼我們預計案件可能在 2026 年底結案。然後，如果其中包括為符合委員會政策聲明​​的未來公式利率計劃而設計的，這當然是根據歷史測試年份來製定公式利率計劃，那麼您可以假設一年後公式利率計劃就會考慮到根據公式利率計劃打算調整的內容而進行的任何調整。

So it's a way to keep the cost trued up on a go forward basis once you conclude this next rate case. And we'll look to work through all the details of that in this next case as a part of the filing and align with the commission on details around how that formula would work.

因此，一旦您完成下一個費率案例，這就是一種在未來保持成本平衡的方法。我們將在下一個案件中研究所有細節，作為備案的一部分，並與委員會就公式如何運作的細節進行協調。

And then one quick other one on that. ROE, what are your thoughts on that? I don't think it was in the policy statement, but you correct me if I'm wrong there.

然後再簡單說一下這一點。ROE，您對此有何看法？我認為這不在政策聲明中，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。

Well, we wouldn't envision --

嗯，我們不會想像--

Is that something that would change every year?

這是每年都會改變的事情嗎？

Yeah. Travis, we wouldn't envision that the ROE would really be a factor any different than it is today around a formula rate. So we would take the opportunity in this case to be able to demonstrate what an appropriate ROE would be for us to be able to attract capital commensurate with our peers.

是的。崔維斯，我們不會想像 ROE 會成為一個與今天公式利率有任何不同的因素。因此，我們將藉此機會展示適當的 ROE 是多少，以便我們能夠吸引與同行相當的資本。

And then we'll look to work with the commission on how that would be maintained in a future forward formula rate construct. So it wasn't detailed out in the policy statement, and we'll just look to work through all those details in this upcoming case.

然後，我們將與委員會合作，研究如何在未來的遠期公式利率建構中維持這一水準。因此，政策聲明中沒有詳細說明，我們將在即將到來的案件中研究所有這些細節。

Yeah. And then one higher level. Again, back to the formula rates. Any chance that if this is successful, that you would shift around CapEx or is there some opportunity to shift around CapEx between -- transmission already obviously has that network level but between distribution and generation perhaps shifting that CapEx if you end up getting that formula rate plan authorization?

是的。然後再提高一個等級。再次回到公式利率。如果成功的話，您是否有可能會轉移資本支出，或者是否有機會在傳輸之間轉移資本支出 - 傳輸顯然已經具有該網絡級別，但在分配和發電之間，如果您最終獲得該公式費率計劃授權，也許會轉移該資本支出？

Yeah. Travis, it's Andrew. Yeah, that's a great question.

是的。崔維斯，我是安德魯。是的，這是一個很好的問題。

I think we will definitely be looking at capital allocation should we be working through a formula rate. If you think about some of the projects that we're spending more heavily on today, they're in the generation space and they're in the transmission space because of the more contemporaneous recovery.

我認為，如果我們按照公式利率來運作，我們肯定會考慮資本配置。如果您想想我們今天投入更多資金的一些項目，它們位於發電領域，並且由於同期的復甦而位於輸電領域。

And in the case of transmission, a formula rate that has a premium for ROE associated with it. But the opportunity in our distribution system and our IT backbone infrastructure. And one of the areas that I always think about is maintenance of our generation fleet, not only just some of our older fossil units, but investing in Palo Verde for the long term.

在傳輸的情況下，公式利率與 ROE 溢價相關。但我們的分銷系統和 IT 骨幹基礎設施中存在機會。我一直考慮的領域之一是我們的發電機組的維護，不僅僅是一些較老的化石燃料機組，還包括對帕洛弗迪的長期投資。

And all of those are opportunities that we have to wait for periodic rate cases to recover on. And so we'll look at both the allocation among our business lines and then what the size of the overall capital spend would be as it's supported by our credit metrics and our financing plan with the more predictable and contemporaneous recovery that we see should formula rates be adopted.

所有這些都是我們必須等待定期利率恢復的機會。因此，我們將研究業務線之間的分配情況，然後研究整體資本支出的規模，因為它受到我們的信貸指標和融資計劃的支持，如果採用公式利率，我們將看到更可預測和同步的復甦。

Chris Ellinghaus, Williams Capital.

威廉斯資本 (Williams Capital) 的克里斯·埃林豪斯 (Chris Ellinghaus)。

Ted and Jeff, I hope you have a great retirement.

泰德和傑夫，我希望你們退休後過得愉快。

As you get a better sense of some of these longer lead time owned projects, would that give you the opportunity to extend your CapEx forecast at that point?

當您對這些較長交付週期的專案有了更好的了解時，您是否有機會延長您的資本支出預測？

Chris, it could, but I'll just underscore what Andrew said, which is I think our CapEx forecast is really meant to reflect what our capital plan is currently while we're entering a period of a new rate application along with agreeing with the commission on how to keep rates trued up going forward to a formula rate plan.

克里斯，有可能，但我只想強調安德魯所說的話，我認為我們的資本支出預測實際上是為了反映我們目前的資本計劃，同時我們正進入一個新的利率應用期，並與委員會就如何保持利率與公式利率計劃保持一致達成一致。

So our first priority is really to work through that process. And then after that, as they reflect on what the right capital outlook could be, capital allocation across our three business lines of generation, transmission, distribution. So we'll certainly continue to assess and reflect on what a forward-looking forecast could be.

因此我們的首要任務其實是完成這項進程。然後，當他們反思正確的資本前景時，我們會在發電、輸電、配電三大業務線上進行資本配置。因此，我們肯定會繼續評估和思考前瞻性預測。

But priority number one is to file this case and then align with commission and stakeholders on how to keep rates trued up going forward through the formula rate plan.

但首要任務是提起訴訟，然後與委員會和利害關係人協調如何透過公式費率計劃來保持費率的穩定。

When you talk about the end of 2026 sort of timeline for adjudicating the case, are you including in that sort of thought process the complication addition of the formula rate issue in the case?

當您談到 2026 年底審理案件的時間表時，您是否在思考過程中考慮到了案件中公式利率問題的複雜性？

Chris, yes. That's a rough estimate of what a timeline could be based on historical timelines of practice. But given that the commission really took most of 2024 to host workshops and ultimately align on what a good mitigation tool would be to minimize regulatory lag aligning on formula rate plan, a lot of that work and alignment has already been done.

克里斯，是的。這是根據歷史實踐時間表對時間表的粗略估計。但考慮到委員會確實花了 2024 年的大部分時間來舉辦研討會並最終就什麼是好的緩解工具來最大限度地減少監管滯後以及公式費率計劃的調整達成一致，許多工作和調整已經完成。

It culminated in the issuance of a policy statement. And so this is really about including and ultimately implementing that policy statement in our rate case filing and then just simply detailing out the mechanics of how it would work.

會議最終發布了一份政策聲明。因此，這實際上是在我們的費率案例文件中納入並最終實施該政策聲明，然後詳細說明其運作機制。

So yes, that timeline estimate we believe can still be accomplished with the formula rate plan mechanics being agreed to as well.

所以是的，我們相信，只要公式費率計劃機制得到同意，這個時間表估計仍然可以實現。

Maybe it's a good question for Ted. You put out your statement on new nuclear thoughts in December, I think it was. When you talk about the early 2040s, can you just sort of discuss what you see as the decision points to get to that point in terms of when new SMRs are ready? How do you sort of get to that decision tree that you sort of have in your mind?

也許這對泰德來說是一個好問題。我認為您在 12 月就新核子想法發表了聲明。當您談到 2040 年代初期時，您能否簡單討論一下，就新 SMR 何時準備就緒而言，您認為達到這一階段的決策點是什麼？您如何獲得您心中的決策樹？

Yeah. Chris, this is Ted.

是的。克里斯，這是泰德。

We really wanted to put out the announcement to just recognize that we think nuclear has the potential for helping us serve customers in the long term with reliable, affordable, carbon-free energy. But given the reality of the long lead time it takes to develop and frankly the uncertainty around which nuclear technology may be best suited for any potential future investment, step one was really for us to begin a formal collaboration with some of our utility partners in the state, Salt River Project and Tucson Electric.

我們真正想發布這項聲明只是為了表明我們認為核能有潛力幫助我們長期為客戶提供可靠、實惠、無碳的能源。但考慮到開發所需的長期準備時間，坦白說，對於哪種核子技術最適合未來的潛在投資存在不確定性，我們的第一步實際上是與該州的一些公用事業合作夥伴，即鹽河項目和圖森電力公司開始正式合作。

And begin assessing where locations may be suitable for new nuclear, what technologies may be in the best interest of our customers over the long term, and importantly, monitor the technology and supply side maturity over time. And so the announcement was really a recognition that we think nuclear is a promising technology, but it's too early to be able to commit to a project.

並開始評估哪些地方可能適合建造新的核電站，哪些技術可能符合我們客戶的長期最佳利益，更重要的是，隨著時間的推移監測技術和供應方面的成熟度。因此，這項聲明實際上表明我們認為核能是一項很有前景的技術，但現在承諾一個專案還為時過早。

However, we are taking the developments that we see elsewhere seriously. And we want to dedicate a team to pay attention to those developments and begin thinking about what options may exist in Arizona. As we start to zero in on potential suitable locations, what technology is maturing nicely in the marketplace, and importantly, if the supply side starts to mature where you have a dependable scaled up set of contractors that can develop the technology, then I think the decision criteria will become more clear and we'll be in a better position to more seriously consider whether there's a project that could come from this effort.

然而，我們也認真對待在其他地方看到的事態發展。我們希望專門派遣一個團隊來關注這些事態發展，並開始思考亞利桑那州可能存在哪些選擇。當我們開始鎖定潛在的合適地點時，哪些技術在市場上已經成熟，更重要的是，如果供應方開始成熟，擁有一批可靠的、可以開發該技術的承包商，那麼我認為決策標準將變得更加清晰，我們將能夠更認真地考慮是否有一個項目可以通過這項努力來實現。

But at this point, I just emphasize it's really an assessment period and then we'll know more in the future.

但在這一點上，我只想強調這確實是一個評估期，我們將來會知道更多。

Thank you. That completes our Q&A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。各位，今天的活動就到這裡了。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。