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Operator
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Plug Power Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.
各位好,歡迎參加 Plug Power 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。
I'll now turn the conference over to Teal Hoyos, VP, Marketing and Communications.
現在我將把會議交給行銷與傳播副總裁 Teal Hoyos。
Thank you, Teal. You may begin.
謝謝你,Teal。你可以開始了。
Teal Vivacqua Hoyos - Vice President, Marketing and Communications
Teal Vivacqua Hoyos - Vice President, Marketing and Communications
Thank you.
謝謝。
Welcome to the 2026 third quarter earnings call.
歡迎參加 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。
This call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements contain projections of our future results of operations or of our financial position or other forward-looking information. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We believe that it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on forward-looking statements and such statements should not be read or understood as a guarantee of future performance or results.
本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述包含對我們未來營運結果或財務狀況的預測,或其他前瞻性資訊。我們意圖使這些前瞻性陳述受 1933 年《證券法》第 27A 條及 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條所載之前瞻性陳述安全港條款所涵蓋。我們認為向投資人傳達我們對未來的預期很重要。然而,提醒投資人切勿過度依賴前瞻性陳述,且此等陳述不應被解讀或理解為對未來表現或結果的保證。
Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those discussed as a result of various factors, including but not limited to risks and uncertainties discussed under Item 1A Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2026, and June 30, 2026, as well as other reports we file from time to time with the SEC. These forward-looking statements speak only of the day that the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call or as a result of new information.
此等陳述受風險與不確定性影響,可能因各種因素而導致實際結果或表現與所討論內容出現重大差異,包括但不限於我們截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止會計年度 Form 10-K 年報,以及截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日與 2026 年 6 月 30 日止季度的 Form 10-Q 季報中「第 1A 項風險因素」所討論之風險與不確定性,及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的其他報告。這些前瞻性陳述僅截至其作出之日有效,我們不承擔亦無意在本次電話會議後或因新資訊而更新任何前瞻性陳述。
At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Plug's CEO, Jose Luis Crespo.
接下來,我想把電話會議交給 Plug 的執行長 Jose Luis Crespo。
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2026 earnings call.
各位下午好,感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。
At the start of this year, we committed to three priorities: gross sales, enhanced margins and improved cash flow. Q3 showed clear year-over-year progress on all three and it delivered our strongest quarterly net cash usage of the year.
在今年年初,我們承諾三項優先事項:總銷售額、提升毛利率,以及改善現金流。第三季在這三項上都展現出明顯的年增進展,並創下今年以來最強的單季淨現金使用表現。
Revenue was approximately $201 million, up about 13% year-over-year and up roughly 13% from the second quarter. This was our highest revenue quarter of 2026 so far, and we expect the fourth quarter to be even higher. Gross margin was negative 2.7%, compared with approximately negative 68% in the third quarter of last year. This is a significant improvement and it reflects the cost and operating discipline we have built through Project Quantum Leap. It was slightly below Q2 and Paul will walk you through the drivers.
營收約為 2.01 億美元,年增約 13%,較第二季亦增加約 13%。這是我們 2026 年迄今營收最高的一季,我們預期第四季將更高。毛利率為負 2.7%,相較去年第三季約為負 68%。這是顯著改善,反映我們透過「Quantum Leap 計畫」建立的成本與營運紀律。毛利率略低於第二季,Paul 將為各位說明其驅動因素。
Operating expenses were approximately $70 million compared with roughly $229 million a year ago, reflecting lower unusual charges and a structurally lower cost base. And most importantly, net cash usage fell to approximately $28 million, a record low and a reduction of about 54% from the second quarter. We achieved this without raising any capital. No proceeds from our ATM program and no other equity or debt raises during the quarter.
營業費用約為 7,000 萬美元,去年同期約為 2.29 億美元,反映一次性/異常費用降低以及結構性較低的成本基礎。最重要的是,淨現金使用降至約 2,800 萬美元,創歷史新低,較第二季減少約 54%。我們是在未募集任何資金的情況下達成。本季未透過我們的 ATM 計畫取得任何資金,也沒有其他股權或債務募資。
We also reported positive GAAP basis earnings per share of approximately $0.07 compared with our negative $0.31 a year ago. Positive basic EPS of $0.07 was driven by non-cash fair value gains on our convertible notes and warrants, but Paul will walk you through the components.
我們也公布 GAAP 基礎下的每股盈餘約為 0.07 美元,相較去年同期為負 0.31 美元。基本每股盈餘轉正至 0.07 美元,主要由我們可轉換公司債與認股權證的非現金公允價值收益所帶動,但 Paul 會帶各位了解其組成。
Let me start with what is driving these results across the business.
我先從推動整體業務表現的因素談起。
Our priorities for 2026 have not changed, disciplined execution, sales growth and continued improvement in cash utilization and operating leverage. Through the three quarters, the trend lines are where we said there will be. Revenue has grown every quarter this year from $163.5 million in Q1 to $178.3 million in Q2 to approximately $201 million in Q3. Gross margin has moved from approximately negative 13% in Q1 to near breakeven over the last two quarters. We are reaffirming our full-year revenue growth guidance of 15% to 16%, which we raised on our last call.
我們 2026 年的優先事項沒有改變:有紀律的執行、銷售成長,以及持續改善現金使用效率與營運槓桿。截至前三季,趨勢線符合我們先前所說的方向。今年營收每季成長,從第一季的 1.635 億美元到第二季的 1.783 億美元,再到第三季約 2.01 億美元。毛利率從第一季約負 13% 改善至過去兩季接近損益兩平。我們重申全年營收成長指引為 15% 至 16%,該指引已在上次電話會議中上調。
As we have said, our business is second-half weighted. With the fourth quarter benefiting from a year-end deployment cycles and our backlog and customer schedule support that partner pattern again this year. We are focused on delivering positive EBITDAS in the fourth quarter of 2026 and based on our current forecast, we expect net cash usage in Q4 to be approximately flat. Paul will take you through the drivers behind both.
如同我們所說,我們的業務偏向下半年。第四季將受惠於年底部署週期,而我們的在手訂單與客戶排程也再次支持今年同樣的合作夥伴模式。我們聚焦於在 2026 年第四季實現正的 EBITDAS,並依據目前預測,我們預期第四季淨現金使用將大致持平。Paul 將帶各位了解這兩者背後的驅動因素。
Material handling remains the foundation of our recurring revenue, and it continues to grow. We deployed 1,136 GenDrive units in the third quarter, more than double the 540 we deployed in Q3 last year. This is up 110%. Service margins kept improving because better unit reliability lets each service technician cover more units, and that is driving real overhead leverage. Service has gone from a drag on this business to a profit contributor.
物料搬運仍是我們經常性收入的基礎,且持續成長。第三季我們部署了 1,136 台 GenDrive 單元,較去年第三季部署的 540 台增加逾一倍。增幅為 110%。由於單元可靠度提升,使每位服務技術人員可覆蓋更多單元,服務毛利率持續改善,並帶來實質的間接費用槓桿。服務已從拖累業務轉為獲利貢獻者。
We are also investing in the next generation of GenDrive. During the quarter, we advanced the development of a new fuel cell solutions with a refined power management architecture, more reliable power electronics and enhanced control software. For customers, we expect these enhancements to mean higher fleet uptime, longer stack life and fewer unplanned shutdowns.
我們也在投資下一代 GenDrive。本季我們推進新燃料電池解決方案的開發,包含更精煉的電源管理架構、更可靠的功率電子,以及強化的控制軟體。對客戶而言,我們預期這些強化將意味著更高的車隊可用率、更長的電堆壽命,以及更少的非計畫性停機。
Fuel revenue grew year-over-year. Fuel margins also improved meaningfully year-over-year, but we are still not satisfied with where we are today. Q3 was affected by unplanned downtime at some of our plants, which Paul will also cover, and we expect improvement in Q4. We're working to reduce product and logistics cost across the network and we expect further progress in the coming quarters.
燃料營收年增。燃料毛利率也較去年同期顯著改善,但我們對目前的水準仍不滿意。第三季受到部分工廠非計畫性停機影響,Paul 也會說明,我們預期第四季將改善。我們正致力於降低整體網路的產品與物流成本,並預期未來幾季將有進一步進展。
Our GenEco Electrolyzers business had one of its most important commercial quarters. Electrolyzers revenue this year reflects the timing of deployment as we move from smaller industrial systems to larger scale programs and Paul will also cover the financial impact. Commercially, the momentum is clear. At the end of September, we signed a 280-megawatt GenEco supply agreement with Arcadia eFuels for Project Endor in Denmark. Endor is expected to produce roughly 110 tons of renewable hydrogen per day, combined with captured CO2 to make e-SAF. This agreement follows three years of joint engineering work and deliveries are expected to begin once the project issues notice to proceed.
我們的 GenEco 電解槽業務迎來其最重要的商業季度之一。今年電解槽營收反映部署時點,因我們正從較小型的工業系統轉向更大規模的專案,Paul 也會說明其財務影響。在商業面,動能十分明確。9 月底,我們與 Arcadia eFuels 就丹麥 Endor 專案簽署了 280 兆瓦的 GenEco 供應協議。預期 Endor 每日可生產約 110 噸再生氫,並結合捕獲的 CO2 製造 e-SAF。此協議延續了三年的共同工程合作,一旦專案發出開工通知(notice to proceed),預期將開始交付。
Just as important, we also signed a strategic cooperation agreement that positions Plug as the preferred electrolyzer supplier for four additional Arcadia projects in Europe and the Americas, more than 1 gigawatt of potential capacity. Arcadia's offtake agreement with Uniper for Endor e-SAF is an encouraging sign. That the demand side of this market is taking shape. This is driven as much as by decarbonization as by the need for energy security in Europe.
同樣重要的是,我們也簽署了一項策略合作協議,使 Plug 成為 Arcadia 在歐洲與美洲另外四個專案的優先電解槽供應商,潛在產能超過 1 吉瓦。Arcadia 與 Uniper 就 Endor e-SAF 簽訂的承購協議是一個令人鼓舞的訊號。顯示這個市場的需求端正在成形。其驅動因素既來自去碳化,也來自歐洲對能源安全的需求。
In July, we secured a 50-megawatt order from Orica following FID on the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, the largest renewable hydrogen project to reach FID in Australia. We also shipped one-megawatt GenEco system to HWR, Hydrogen in New Zealand to fuel heavy-duty trucks, and we continue FEED work on the 275 megawatt hydrogen current project in Quebec.
7 月,我們在澳洲最大、已達成最終投資決策(FID)的再生氫專案——Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub——完成 FID 後,取得 Orica 的 50 兆瓦訂單。我們也向紐西蘭的 HWR(Hydrogen in New Zealand)出貨 1 兆瓦 GenEco 系統,用於為重型卡車提供燃料;同時,我們持續推進魁北克 275 兆瓦氫能現行專案的 FEED 工作。
On execution, commissioning continues on our 25-megawatt project with Iberdrola and BP in Spain and our 100-megawatt project with Galp in Portugal. Additionally, we have already started activities for the Carlton Power projects in the UK and the Orica project in Australia.
在執行方面,我們與 Iberdrola 與 BP 在西班牙的 25 兆瓦專案,以及與 Galp 在葡萄牙的 100 兆瓦專案,持續進行試車與投運。此外,我們已經開始推進英國 Carlton Power 專案以及澳洲 Orica 專案的相關活動。
Now, let me take a minute on how the role of hydrogen is evolving, because this is the reason we expect electrolyzers to be a growth engine for Plug. The energy crisis that was created by the war in Ukraine and more recently the developments in the Middle East have put energy security and energy independence at the top of the agenda, especially in import-dependent regions like Europe, which imports roughly 85% of the natural gas it consumes. Hydrogen is uniquely positioned to address this because it turns locally generated solar and wind power into fuels, ammonia and other products that are imported today otherwise.
現在,我想花一點時間談談氫能角色如何演變,因為這正是我們預期電解槽將成為 Plug 成長引擎的原因。烏克蘭戰爭引發的能源危機,以及近期中東局勢的發展,使能源安全與能源自主成為最重要的議題,尤其是在像歐洲這類依賴進口的地區——歐洲進口其消耗天然氣約 85%。氫能在解決此問題上具有獨特優勢,因為它能將本地產生的太陽能與風能轉化為燃料、氨以及其他目前需要進口的產品。
The industry sees the same shift. The Hydrogen Council's Global Hydrogen Compass 2026 identifies energy security and resilience as the leading driver of hydrogen adoption ahead of decarbonization. The Hydrogen Council calls hydrogen a geopolitical insurance policy. Our European strategy is built around this shift. For example, most hydrogen used in European refineries today is made from natural gas; much of it is imported. Replacing it with hydrogen made from local renewables removes that import exposure. The same logic applies to e-fuels.
產業也看到了同樣的轉變。氫能委員會(Hydrogen Council)的《Global Hydrogen Compass 2026》指出,能源安全與韌性是推動氫能採用的首要驅動因素,甚至領先於去碳化。氫能委員會將氫能稱為一種地緣政治的保險政策。我們的歐洲策略正是圍繞這一轉變建立。例如,當今歐洲煉油廠使用的大多數氫氣是由天然氣製造;其中很大一部分依賴進口。以本地再生能源製造的氫氣取代它,可消除對進口的曝險。同樣的邏輯也適用於電燃料(e-fuels)。
These are exactly the kind of projects we are executing with Galp, Iberdrola BP, and Arcadia. The Renewable Energy Directive III began as a decarbonization policy, but energy security and energy independence are now at the center of how EU member states are writing it into national law, turning policy into binding demand in refining transport and sustainable aviation fuels. As we noted last quarter, our team estimates that in Spain, the draft framework alone could drive approximately 10 gigawatts of electrolyzer demand by 2030. With Galp, Iberdrola BP, Carlton Power, and our Arcadia, Plug has one of the strongest installed and contracted positions in Europe.
這正是我們與 Galp、Iberdrola BP 以及 Arcadia 正在執行的那類專案。《再生能源指令 III》(Renewable Energy Directive III)起初是一項去碳化政策,但如今能源安全與能源自主已成為歐盟成員國將其納入國內法的核心,讓政策轉化為在煉油、運輸與永續航空燃料領域的具約束力需求。如同我們上季所提到的,我們團隊估計,僅西班牙的草案框架就可能在 2030 年前帶動約 10 吉瓦的電解槽需求。憑藉 Galp、Iberdrola BP、Carlton Power 以及我們與 Arcadia 的合作,Plug 在歐洲擁有最強的已安裝與已簽約布局之一。
Energy security and energy independence are fueling the adoption of green hydrogen, and we will discuss this in more depth during our Plug Symposium 2026 on November 19. This year, the Symposium will be virtual and I encourage you to sign up on Plug's website.
能源安全與能源自主正在推動綠氫的採用,我們將在 11 月 19 日舉行的 Plug Symposium 2026 中更深入討論。今年的 Symposium 將以線上形式舉行,我鼓勵各位到 Plug 的網站報名。
To sum up, revenue is growing, gross margin is improving, operating expenses are lower, and net cash usage is at a record low, all without raising capital. We are reaffirming our 15% to 16% revenue growth through the year, and we remain focused on a positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter.
總結來說,營收正在成長、毛利率正在改善、營業費用降低、淨現金使用量降至歷史新低,而且全程未進行募資。我們重申全年營收成長 15% 至 16% 的目標,並持續聚焦於第四季達成 EBITDA 轉正。
With that, I will turn the call over to Paul for a more detailed review of the quarter, including our liquidity position and financial outlook. Paul:?
接下來,我將把電話會議交給 Paul,請他更詳細回顧本季表現,包括我們的流動性狀況與財務展望。Paul:?
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Thanks, Jose Luis and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝你,Jose Luis,各位下午好。
As Luis covered this quarter's revenue, I just would add that through the nine months, we're at $542 million, up about 12% year-over-year. Gross margin was negative 2.7%, a roughly 65 percentage point improvement from negative 68% a year ago. It was slightly below our Q2 of '26, and I'll explain why, but the year-over-year trend shows the structural changes we've made are working. Equipment revenue was $106 million, up from $97 million, driven by material handling GenDrive deployments more than doubled, and we recognized nine hydrogen site installations versus none a year ago.
Luis 已經說明了本季營收,我只補充一點:累計前九個月,我們營收為 5.42 億美元,年增約 12%。毛利率為負 2.7%,較一年前的負 68% 改善約 65 個百分點。雖然略低於我們 2026 年第二季的水準,我會解釋原因,但年對年的趨勢顯示我們所做的結構性調整正在奏效。設備營收為 1.06 億美元,高於去年的 9,700 萬美元,主要受惠於物料搬運 GenDrive 部署量增加逾一倍,且我們認列了 9 座氫能站點安裝收入,而一年前為零。
Year to date, we've already surpassed last year's material handling sales. Electrolyzer revenue was down about $40 million year over year, primarily on deployment timing. For the year, we expect electrolyzers to be slightly down versus last year. However, it's important to understand the dynamics of this market. As we've established this business. The early deployments were mainly small industrial applications and stack sales. Recently, we have shifted the focus to larger scale deployments and a much bigger pipeline. The overall portfolio traction in this transition is just coming into its own scale. The future growth will be driven by energy security and energy independence and decarbonization, as Jose Luis mentioned, and is anchored in real projects.
截至目前,今年累計我們已超越去年的物料搬運銷售。電解槽營收年減約 4,000 萬美元,主要是部署時點所致。就全年而言,我們預期電解槽營收將較去年略為下滑。不過,理解這個市場的動態非常重要。隨著我們建立起這項業務,早期部署主要是小型工業應用與堆疊(stack)銷售。近期我們已將重點轉向更大規模的部署,以及更龐大的案源管線。在這個轉型過程中,整體產品組合的市場牽引力正逐步進入規模化階段。如 Jose Luis 所提到,未來成長將由能源安全、能源自主與去碳化所驅動,並以真實專案為基礎。
50 megawatts with Orica now in execution, the Carlton Power project in the UK, 280 megawatts signed with Arcadia pending FID, 270 megawatts with Hy2gen in the FEED process, and all the megawatts we are commissioning.
目前正在執行的包括:與 Orica 的 50 兆瓦專案、英國 Carlton Power 專案、與 Arcadia 簽署的 280 兆瓦(待 FID)、與 Hy2gen 在 FEED 流程中的 270 兆瓦,以及我們正在試車投運的所有兆瓦數。
Now on equipment margin, it was essentially breakeven versus negative 77% a year ago. Driven by restructuring, volume, pricing and much lower inventory adjustments. Sequentially, it was a bit below Q2 because of electrolyzer scale-up costs, partly offset by better material handling margins. Also of note, customer warrant charges, which reduced revenue, were higher in the quarter. It was $14.4 million versus $10.9 million a year ago, reflecting increased sales to Amazon. On service revenue, it grew 47% to $29 million and margin reached 31%, up from 27% in Q2 and negative 2% a year ago. Better reliability means each technician covers more units and parts consumption is almost 50% down year-over-year.
再談設備毛利率,本季基本上打平,相較一年前的負 77% 大幅改善。改善主要來自重整、出貨量、定價,以及大幅降低的存貨調整。就季對季而言,因電解槽擴產成本影響而略低於第二季,但部分被較佳的物料搬運毛利率所抵銷。另外值得注意的是,客戶保固費用(會降低營收)在本季較高。本季為 1,440 萬美元,高於一年前的 1,090 萬美元,反映對 Amazon 的銷售增加。服務營收方面,成長 47% 至 2,900 萬美元,毛利率達 31%,高於第二季的 27%,也優於一年前的負 2%。可靠性提升意味著每位技術人員可覆蓋更多設備,且零件耗用量年減近 50%。
On PPA revenue, it was $28 million, up 13%. Margin improved to negative 16% from about negative 30% in Q2 and negative 85% a year ago. This was driven by pricing, lower maintenance costs and lower lease costs from our buyout program.
PPA 營收為 2,800 萬美元,成長 13%。毛利率由第二季約負 30% 改善至負 16%,也優於一年前的負 85%。這主要由定價、較低的維護成本,以及我們買斷計畫帶來的較低租賃成本所驅動。
Fuel revenue was $38 million, up 6% year-over-year. Margin was negative 52% versus negative 79% a year ago. This was on higher pricing and lower production and purchase fuel costs. The Q3 margin was slightly behind the Q2 because of unplanned outages at our plants in Q3, which forced more external purchases. These issues are largely resolved and we've rebalanced sourcing, so we expect fuel margin to improve in Q4.
燃料營收為3,800萬美元,年增6%。毛利率為負52%,相較去年同期為負79%。這主要受惠於較高的定價,以及較低的燃料生產與採購成本。第三季毛利率略低於第二季,因為第三季我們工廠發生非計畫性停機,迫使我們增加外部採購。這些問題大多已解決,我們也已重新平衡採購來源,因此我們預期第四季燃料毛利率將改善。
Operating expenses for the quarter were $70 million, and this included gains and losses from asset monetizations and contract terminations. Normalizing for those and other unusual items, we see about $70 million to $75 million as the right near-term run rate. Net income attributable to Plug was $99.8 million or $0.07 positive per basic share. That reflects $192 million in non-cash mark-to-market gains on our convertible notes and warrant liability, which equates to about $0.12 EPS on a diluted basis. Excluding those gains, we would have reported a net loss, but a far smaller one than a year ago, which reflects real operating improvement. These adjustments will continue each quarter in either direction until the instruments mature or are settled.
本季營業費用為7,000萬美元,其中包含資產變現與合約終止所產生的損益。若將上述及其他非經常性項目正常化,我們認為短期合理的費用水準約為7,000萬至7,500萬美元。歸屬於Plug的淨利為9,980萬美元,或每股基本盈餘0.07美元(為正)。這反映了我們可轉換公司債與認股權證負債的1.92億美元非現金按市價評價收益,折合稀釋後每股盈餘約0.12美元。若排除這些收益,我們將會呈報淨損,但相較去年同期會小得多,這反映出實質的營運改善。在這些金融工具到期或結算之前,這些調整將在每一季持續出現,可能為正也可能為負。
Net cash usage was about $28 million, down from $61 million in Q2 and $145 million in Q1, and we raised no capital. Asset monetizations help fund the year without dilution. Underneath that, the operating improvement is real: higher gross margin, structurally lower OpEx, and reduced maintenance CapEx.
淨現金使用約2,800萬美元,低於第二季的6,100萬美元與第一季的1.45億美元,且我們未募集任何資金。資產變現有助於在不稀釋股權的情況下支應全年資金需求。更重要的是,營運改善是真實的:更高的毛利率、結構性較低的營業費用(OpEx),以及較低的維護性資本支出(CapEx)。
Two monetization updates. On Stream, we received about $51 million this year, including $46 million in Q3. The remaining stages for this project depend on regulatory and permitting steps in Texas and New York that have taken longer than expected. Stream remains under contract and engaged, but we have not included any of these proceeds in our Q4 forecast.
兩項變現進度更新。就Stream而言,我們今年已收到約5,100萬美元,其中第三季收到4,600萬美元。該專案剩餘階段取決於德州與紐約的監管與許可程序,所需時間比預期更長。Stream仍在合約之下並持續推進,但我們未將任何相關款項納入第四季預測。
Separately, we're working to release about $62 million of restricted cash posted as collateral for power supply at our Texas plant, targeting the end of Q1 '27. Inventory is down about $49 million from the year end, and we expect another meaningful reduction in Q4. We ended the quarter with $134 million in unrestricted cash and $469 million in restricted cash. We think there's a good chance that Q4 net cash usage may be relatively flat. This means we could continue to not need new capital to fund our operational plan in the near term.
另外,我們正努力釋放約6,200萬美元的受限制現金,該筆現金係作為德州工廠電力供應的擔保品,目標在2027年第一季末完成。存貨較年末減少約4,900萬美元,我們預期第四季還會再顯著下降。本季末我們持有1.34億美元不受限制現金,以及4.69億美元受限制現金。我們認為第四季淨現金使用很可能相對持平。這表示短期內我們可能仍不需要為了支應營運計畫而新增募資。
We're reaffirming our full year revenue guidance, as Jose Luis said, to 15% to 16%, which implies Q4 revenue of roughly about $280 million. That's driven mainly by equipment in terms of growth and supported by our backlog and customer schedules. The biggest driver is material handling. We have a pipeline to potentially ship more GenDrive units in Q4 than the first nine months combined, and this is at stronger contribution margins.
如Jose Luis所說,我們重申全年營收指引為成長15%至16%,這意味著第四季營收約為2.8億美元。成長主要由設備帶動,並由我們的在手訂單與客戶排程所支撐。最大的驅動因素是物料搬運。我們有機會在第四季出貨的GenDrive台數,可能超過前九個月合計,而且貢獻毛利率更強。
Remain focused on positive EBITDAS in Q4, and this path runs mainly through gross margin, stemming from equipment volume leverage, manufacturing cost reductions, service reliability, fuel cost optimization, and continued PPA buyouts. Volume and mix will determine the final result, but we believe we're well positioned.
我們仍聚焦於第四季達成正的EBITDAS,而這條路徑主要來自毛利率改善,包含設備出貨量帶來的規模效益、製造成本降低、服務可靠性提升、燃料成本最佳化,以及持續進行PPA買斷。最終結果將取決於出貨量與產品組合,但我們相信自身處於有利位置。
With that, let's open the lineup for questions, and I'll turn it back to the operator.
接下來我們開放提問,我把時間交回給主持人。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Eric Stine, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.
Eric Stine,Craig-Hallum Capital Group。
Luke - Analyst
Luke - Analyst
Hey, this is Luke on for Eric. Thanks for taking our questions. So just for our first one here, for the outlook and material handling, can you give us some more context on how much of your expected growth can be contributed to the refresh cycle opportunity versus new site wins with both existing and new customers? So you've got that 20,000 unit number in the next three years on the refresh side that you've outlined before. Do you have visibility into a similarly sized opportunity for new sites?
嗨,我是Luke,代替Eric發問。感謝讓我們提問。第一個問題關於展望與物料搬運:能否提供更多背景,說明你們預期的成長中,有多少來自汰換週期(refresh cycle)的機會,相較於在既有與新客戶中贏得新站點(new site wins)?你們先前提到未來三年汰換端有2萬台的數字。對於新站點,你們是否也能看到規模相近的機會?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So in fourth quarter, we're expecting to begin the refreshing cycle for Walmart. Our expectation is to see probably between 2,000 to 2,500 units to be refreshed in Q4. So that's where the cycle starts and then as we mentioned before, the 20,000 units for refreshes are going to be gone in the next two to three years. We expect that that will be on top of the normal business that we have with our 16 customers and with new customers. This year, we signed new customers like, for example, Southwire is going to be part of our Symposium and we're looking at a few new customers to be signed up next year.
在第四季,我們預期將開始為Walmart啟動汰換週期。我們預期第四季大約會汰換2,000到2,500台。因此週期會從這裡開始;如我們先前提到的,汰換的2萬台將在未來兩到三年內完成。我們預期這將是在我們與16家客戶的既有正常業務,以及新客戶業務之上的增量。今年我們簽下了新客戶,例如Southwire將參加我們的Symposium,我們也在洽談幾家新客戶,預計明年簽約。
Luke - Analyst
Luke - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. So just switching gears for our second question here on the electrolyzer side. How some of the early operating data from some of your initial projects, like with Galp and Iberdrola helping you generate and finalize new business on that front, can you just talk a little about the value that these early projects are providing just as a reference for prospective customers?
了解。這很有幫助。第二個問題換個方向,關於電解槽(electrolyzer)業務:你們在一些初期專案(例如與Galp、Iberdrola的合作)所取得的早期營運數據,如何幫助你們在這方面開發並敲定新業務?能否談談這些早期專案對潛在客戶作為參考所提供的價值?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I didn't hear well the question. Can you please repeat it?
我沒有聽清楚這個問題。可以請你再重複一次嗎?
Luke - Analyst
Luke - Analyst
Yeah, I mean, just looking at the electrolyzer side, just some of the early progress you're making with whether that's some of the operating data you're getting just in this commissioning process, how that's helping you generate, finalize new leads, just kind of as a reference for prospective customers?
好的,我的意思是,就電解槽這一塊來看,你們在初期進展中——不論是你們在試車(commissioning)過程中取得的一些營運數據——這些如何幫助你們產生並敲定新的潛在案源,作為提供給潛在客戶的參考?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Oh, (laughter) no, thank you. That's a good question, very good question. Well, number one is position us really well for second phases on these projects. The 25 megawatts for Iberdrola and BP is just a first phase on the refinery in Castellon in Spain. The refinery uses much more hydrogen than just the 25 megawatts. So first is positioning us very well for future business. The same thing with Galp. The first 100 megawatts is what we're doing right now, but Galp is also planning another 100 to 200 megawatts in the same site. Deployments are going well, commissioning is going well, so it's really helping for new business with the same customers, but the same thing is happening with other customers. I can tell you, for example, that I've been talking to another customer in Greece.
喔,(笑聲)好的,謝謝。這是個好問題,非常好的問題。第一,它讓我們在這些專案的第二階段上處於非常有利的位置。Iberdrola與BP的25兆瓦只是西班牙Castellon煉油廠的第一階段。該煉油廠使用的氫氣遠不止25兆瓦所能供應的量。所以首先,它讓我們在未來業務上具備很好的布局。Galp也是同樣情況。我們目前正在做的第一期是100兆瓦,但Galp也計畫在同一場址再做100到200兆瓦。部署進展順利、試車進展順利,因此這確實有助於與同一批客戶拓展新業務;同樣的情況也正在其他客戶身上發生。例如我可以告訴你,我最近也一直在和希臘的另一位客戶洽談。
It is a similar situation as BP and Iberdrola is the local utility company with the local oil and gas company doing a joint venture to produce hydrogen and the reference of Iberdrola is actually similar project, 25 megawatts is really powerful when we are talking about we are already doing these type of projects, not only we are planning them, we are now commissioning them in the case of the Iberdrola and BP project very close to operation now. So very good reference points for future business. And thank you for the question.
這與 BP 的情況類似,而 Iberdrola 是當地的公用事業公司,與當地的油氣公司合資生產氫氣;提到 Iberdrola 的案例其實是類似的專案。當我們談到我們已經在做這類專案時,25 兆瓦確實非常有力——我們不只是規劃而已;以 Iberdrola 與 BP 的專案為例,我們現在正在進行試運轉(commissioning),距離投入營運已非常接近。因此,這些都是未來業務非常好的參考點。也謝謝你的提問。
Operator
Operator
Craig Irwin, Roth Capital Partners.
Craig Irwin,Roth Capital Partners。
Craig Irwin - Analyst
Craig Irwin - Analyst
Good evening and thanks for taking my questions. So Jose Luis, I wanted to ask about the regulatory environment. So first, I think we understand pretty well that the accommodative changes that President Trump made in the Big Beautiful Bill are part of the re-acceleration that we're seeing now in the lift truck, the hydrogen lift truck market for you and allowing your customers, your pedestal customers to have the confidence to continue to invest in hydrogen.
晚安,謝謝讓我提問。Jose Luis,我想問一下監管環境。首先,我想我們相當清楚,川普總統在《Big Beautiful Bill》中所做的較為寬鬆的調整,是我們現在在堆高機、氫能堆高機市場看到重新加速的一部分;也讓你們的客戶、你們的「基座客戶」(pedestal customers)更有信心持續投資氫能。
Now, the changes in the regulatory environment on the back of changes to democratic control in both the House and the Senate seems to set up a favorable environment for Plug over the next couple of years, given very strong Democrat support for hydrogen. And Plug has always had a champion in their corner in the state of New York with Senator Schumer. Can you maybe unpack for us what you think issues or relevant factors could be for the regulatory environment for Plug over the next couple of years. What would you ask for to streamline the development of this business as you approach this new environment that hopefully is a little bit more accommodative against what actually has been pretty positive already?
另外,隨著眾議院與參議院的民主黨控制權變動所帶來的監管環境變化,考量到民主黨對氫能的強力支持,這似乎為 Plug 在未來幾年創造了有利環境。而 Plug 在紐約州一直有一位重要支持者,也就是參議員 Schumer。你能否為我們拆解一下,你認為未來幾年 Plug 的監管環境可能有哪些議題或相關因素?在這個新環境下——希望它比目前更具包容性,儘管目前其實已經相當正面——你會希望政府做些什麼來簡化這項業務的發展?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, Craig, thank you for attending the call and thank you for the question. I appreciate it.
Craig,謝謝你參加這次電話會議,也謝謝你的提問。我很感謝。
The changes in the midterms, the results of the midterms obviously are favorable to the Democratic Party. It's very early to really tell or say where things are going to go. One thing I want to make clear is hydrogen has always been and we've always seen it as a bipartisan matter. And we've gotten support from Republicans. We were able to extend, as you just said, the ITC under President Trump during this term and it has really helped the growth that you're seeing right now with material handling. As Paul said, this year, the nine months of the year, we have already achieved more sales than in full year in 2025. So we've been able to manage hydrogen with both sides of the aisle.
期中選舉的變化、期中選舉的結果顯然對民主黨有利。但現在要真正判斷或說明事情會往哪裡走,還太早。我想先澄清一點:氫能一直以來——我們也一直認為——是跨黨派的議題。我們也獲得共和黨的支持。正如你所說,我們在川普總統任內得以延長 ITC(投資稅額抵免),這確實幫助了你們現在在物料搬運領域看到的成長。如 Paul 所說,今年截至前九個月,我們的銷售額已經超過 2025 全年的水準。因此,我們一直能在兩黨之間推動氫能。
Now having said that, obviously, as you said, there are many things and many activities that we can have with the new Congress. We definitely will try to work to make hydrogen, a discussion during the legislature. If you ask me the type of things that I would like to ask, it would be ideal to be able to extend the production tax credit. So projects associated with implementing electrolyzers are projects that will have the capability to use the production tax credit for a longer time than the end of 2027. And those would be some of the things that we can discuss and I'm sure they're going to be on the table during the legislature.
話雖如此,正如你所說,隨著新一屆國會上任,我們確實可以推動很多事情、進行很多活動。我們一定會努力讓氫能成為立法期間的討論議題。如果你問我希望爭取什麼,我理想上會希望能延長生產稅額抵免(production tax credit)。也就是說,與部署電解槽相關的專案,能夠在 2027 年底之後更長時間地使用生產稅額抵免。這些都是我們可以討論的事項,我也相信在立法期間會被擺上檯面。
Craig Irwin - Analyst
Craig Irwin - Analyst
So then second question I wanted to ask is an open question about pedestal customers. So you have your two. Early pedestal customers, both Walmart and Amazon, recommitting to hydrogen fuel cells and expanding their fleets again. Can you maybe unpack for us the opportunity for pedestal customers whether or not you see potential for new names to be added to the list? The political certainty as far as support and potential extension of the production tax credit, something that maybe some of these customers will view as positive. What do you think is fair as far as an expectation around pedestal customers this next year?
那第二個問題,我想開放式地問一下「基座客戶」(pedestal customers)。你們有兩家。早期的兩家基座客戶 Walmart 與 Amazon,都再次承諾採用氫燃料電池並重新擴大車隊規模。你能否為我們拆解一下基座客戶的機會?你是否看到名單上可能新增客戶名稱的潛力?在政治確定性方面,對於支持氫能以及可能延長生產稅額抵免,或許一些客戶會視為正面因素。你認為對於明年基座客戶的合理預期應該是什麼?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we continue working with new names and new customers. As I mentioned before, Southwire is a customer that signed up. Last year, we have implemented during this year in 2026, they are having an increase in business because of all these electrification and they, as the name indicates, they do electrical equipment, is one of those customers that we believe we can have very healthy growth with other customers that we continue working with that are not as large as Amazon and Walmart are Home Depot and Grainger, which are also pedestal customers with which we have several sites in each one of the cases.
我們持續與新的名字、新的客戶合作。如我先前提到的,Southwire 是已簽約的客戶。去年簽下後,我們在今年 2026 年已經開始導入;由於各種電氣化帶動的需求,他們的業務正在增加。而且顧名思義,他們做的是電氣設備;這是我們認為可以與之實現非常健康成長的客戶之一。另外,我們也持續與一些規模不如 Amazon 與 Walmart 那麼大的客戶合作,例如 Home Depot 與 Grainger;他們同樣是基座客戶,我們在這兩家各自都有多個據點。
We continue, as I said, trying to sign new customers, we are talking right now to four or five potential new customers for 2027 and in those cases, in all the cases, we always try to figure out a way to try to have repeat business and convert them into pedestal customers. Obviously, ITC, the investment tax credit that was extended with the first couple of years of President Trump is really helping with existing pedestal customers and definitely with new customers. So we continue working on that and we continue trying to get new pedestal customers as we advance as always.
如我所說,我們持續嘗試簽下新客戶;目前我們正與 4 到 5 家可能在 2027 年導入的新客戶洽談。在這些案例中——其實在所有案例中——我們總是嘗試找出方法,讓合作能夠重複下單,並把他們轉化為基座客戶。很明顯地,ITC(投資稅額抵免)在川普總統任期前幾年獲得延長,確實對既有基座客戶以及新客戶都有很大幫助。所以我們會持續推進,也會一如既往在前進的過程中持續爭取新的基座客戶。
Craig Irwin - Analyst
Craig Irwin - Analyst
Well, that's really encouraging. Thank you for taking my questions and I'll bring the rest of them offline.
這真的很令人鼓舞。謝謝你回答我的問題,其餘的我會私下再跟進。
Operator
Operator
Sameer Joshi, Wainwright.
Sameer Joshi,Wainwright。
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I just have two quick ones.
嗨,謝謝讓我提問。我只有兩個很快的問題。
The next generation GenDrive is already there. So just wanted to see if when you talk to customers about GenDrive sales, are they saying that they will wait for the next generation to arrive and is that affecting your backlog buildup on that front?
下一代 GenDrive 已經在路上了。所以我想了解一下,當你們和客戶談 GenDrive 的銷售時,他們是否會說要等下一代上市?這是否會影響你們在這方面的在手訂單(backlog)累積?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, we are -- number one, we are improving with many of these improvements already on the existing GenDrive. We do updates to GenDrive software updates and we do -- as we do service and maintenance to the GenDrive, we include some of those upgrades in our GenDrive. All new GenDrive that we manufacture, we also include the new upgrades that come native from manufacturing, which is always a better option than actually doing the upgrades in the field, but we are not seeing any slowdown on purchases based on the next generation plus the next generation GenDrive till we're going to have them probably early in 2027, right?
不會。我們——第一,我們已經把許多改良先用在現有的 GenDrive 上。我們會對 GenDrive 進行軟體更新;而且在我們對 GenDrive 做服務與維護時,也會把其中一些升級一併納入我們的 GenDrive。我們製造的所有新 GenDrive,也都會在出廠時原生搭載新的升級;這永遠比在現場做升級更好的選項。不過我們沒有看到因為下一代而導致採購放緩;而下一代 GenDrive 我們大概會在 2027 年初推出,對吧?
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Understood. Got it. Thanks for that clarification.
了解。明白了。謝謝你的說明。
And then my second question is on the cash burn and more sort of getting a little bit of nuance on this, the restricted cash release of that. Do we have sort of an internal expectation as to how fast or the pace at which you will have the release of restricted cash? I think it has been steadily going down. So that's good, but just wanted to see what the cadence is over the next two, three, four quarters.
那我的第二個問題是關於現金消耗(cash burn),以及更細緻地問一下受限制現金(restricted cash)釋放的部分。你們內部是否對受限制現金釋放的速度或節奏有預期?我想它一直在穩定下降。這是好事,但我想了解未來兩、三、四個季度的釋放節奏會是怎樣。
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'm going to let Paul answer (laughter) --
我會讓 Paul 來回答(笑聲)--
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
So just for context of your question, one thing we've talked publicly about is that we've transitioned the business model away from this legacy subscription-based PPA structure and. So we're on the process of converting those legacy customers to buying the equipment and there'll be sales of the equipment and move into service and so the legacy PPA contracts are winding down and then the bank deals that back those deals, which is what the restricted cash is largely associated with are winding down. So there's a natural progression anyway and it's historically it's been about $50 million a quarter, it's probably about down to about $40 million a quarter at the moment.
所以先就你問題的背景補充一下,我們曾在公開場合談到的一件事是,我們已經把商業模式從這種傳統、以訂閱為基礎的 PPA 架構轉移開來,而且。因此我們正在把那些既有客戶轉換為購買設備,接下來會有設備銷售,並轉向服務;因此既有的 PPA 合約正在逐步到期結束,而支撐那些交易的銀行融資案(也就是受限制現金主要所對應的部分)也正在逐步結束。所以本來就有一個自然的進程;歷史上大約每季 5,000 萬美元,目前大概已降到每季約 4,000 萬美元。
We certainly expect that to continue, but one other thing that we're doing is where we can, we're actually buying out a lot of those programs early and that enables us to release that restricted cash, which is why you see it coming down probably a little faster than normal. And that means we can use that money to pay off the leases and buy the equipment back at very reasonable terms and it's helping a lot with the profitability of that line because then we could take those assets over longer periods of time and in some cases, we're actually able to sell that equipment to the customer, underlying customer, so I'd say I expected over the majority of it to wind down over the next two years or so. But again, probably $40 million on par per quarter minimum and then it may go faster if we continue to buy out more of these bank deals over time.
我們當然預期這個趨勢會持續;但我們另外在做的一件事是,在可行的情況下,我們其實會提早買斷其中許多方案,這讓我們能釋放那部分受限制現金,這也是你看到它下降可能比正常更快一些的原因。這也表示我們可以用這筆錢去償還租賃,並以非常合理的條件把設備買回來;這對該業務線的獲利能力幫助很大,因為之後我們可以把這些資產在更長的期間內使用;而在某些情況下,我們其實也能把該設備賣給最終客戶。所以我會說,我預期其中大部分會在未來大約兩年內逐步結束。但同樣地,至少每季大概 4,000 萬美元的水準,然後如果我們隨時間持續買斷更多這些銀行交易案,速度可能會更快。
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
That color was helpful, thanks a lot. Maybe I will squeeze one more question here.
這些補充資訊很有幫助,非常感謝。也許我再塞一個問題。
And this is and sorry if it has been already addressed, but for the product margin, the product revenue margins, how should we expect that to trend? Would the fourth quarter be a positive and a significantly positive product sale quarter -- margin quarter, I mean.
這個問題是——如果之前已經回答過先說聲抱歉——但就產品毛利、產品營收毛利而言,我們應該預期它會怎麼走勢?第四季會是一個正向、而且顯著正向的產品銷售季度——我是指毛利季度。
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah, for Q4, we absolutely expected a step function improvement. And the reason why is, if you look at the math and you follow what our projections are and we're forecasting the full year 15%, 16%, it kind of translates out to that $280 million number for Q4 and that's about a 40% improvement off of Q2's sales level and the majority of that is material handling equipment. So that postures us very well where you should see a very strong contribution margin off of that equipment in Q4 and so that means you're going to see progression in the margin for equipment as well.
是的,就第四季而言,我們絕對預期會有一個階梯式的改善。原因是,如果你看一下數學關係並追蹤我們的預測,我們預估全年 15%、16%,換算下來第四季大概就是 2.8 億美元左右,而這比第二季的銷售水準大約高出 40%,其中大部分來自物料搬運設備。因此這讓我們在第四季處於非常有利的位置,你應該會看到該設備帶來非常強勁的貢獻毛利,所以也代表你會看到設備毛利率同樣出現改善。
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Sameer Joshi - Analyst
Got it. That is helpful and good luck with the 4Q. It looks like this is going to be an exciting quarter.
了解。這很有幫助,祝第四季順利。看起來這會是一個令人振奮的季度。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.
Colin Rusch,Oppenheimer。
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Thanks, guys. Can you talk a little bit about the impact of the moratorium and the kind of the flux of the political wins around in a couple of different states given your process around the asset sales and how you think that impacts timing and some of the cash flow elements?
謝謝,各位。能否談談禁令(moratorium)的影響,以及在幾個不同州圍繞政治勝利所帶來的變動(flux),考量你們在資產出售流程上的安排,你們認為這會如何影響時程,以及一些現金流的要素?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So thank you, Colin. Thank you for the question.
所以謝謝你,Colin。謝謝你的提問。
Paul covered this a little bit during his remarks. For Stream, so far, we have received about $51 million on the transactions. That includes $46 million that we got in the third quarter. Now, there is, like we all know, I think data centers have been one of the main topics during the midterms. There is a lot of discussions and a lot of regulatory and permitting questions that are being brought around data centers.
Paul 在他的發言中已稍微提到這點。就 Stream 而言,截至目前我們在這些交易上已收到約 5,100 萬美元。其中包含我們在第三季收到的 4,600 萬美元。現在,如同大家所知,我想資料中心在期中選舉期間一直是主要議題之一。圍繞資料中心有很多討論,也出現許多監管與許可(permitting)方面的問題。
Now, we continue working with Stream. I've been working very closely with the CEO of Stream, Michael, and we're very engaged in trying to figure out how these projects can move forward. We, out of caution, have decided not to include any of the proceeds from the transactions in our Q4 projections. So the numbers that you have seen in terms of cash that Paul has discussed include no proceeds from the Stream. We're pushing to see if this can happen faster, but it's going to take a little bit longer than we all expected.
目前我們仍持續與 Stream 合作。我一直與 Stream 的執行長 Michael 非常密切地合作,我們也非常投入,試圖釐清這些專案如何能夠往前推進。出於謹慎,我們決定不把任何來自這些交易的款項納入我們第四季的預測。所以你們看到 Paul 談到的現金數字,並未包含任何來自 Stream 的交易款項。我們正在努力推動看看能否更快發生,但這會比我們所有人原先預期的要多花一些時間。
Now Paul also mentioned, and I think it's important to highlight, is that doing in the package of these assets that we're trying to monetize, we had a PPA -- a wind PPA that we own in Texas. We're trying to sell that PPA that's completely independent on the data center moratoriums and discussions that I just talked about. And that can release about $62 million on restricted cash that we posted as collateral for that PPA. Those discussions are going fairly well and we're expecting that sometime in Q1, we will see that cash release.
另外 Paul 也提到——我認為這點很重要——在我們試圖變現的這一包資產中,我們在德州擁有一份 PPA——一份風電 PPA。我們正嘗試出售該 PPA,而這與我剛才提到的資料中心禁令與相關討論完全無關。而這可以釋放大約 6,200 萬美元的受限制現金,那是我們為該 PPA 提供的擔保品。相關討論進展相當順利,我們預期在第一季的某個時間點會看到這筆現金釋放。
So slower than we were expecting. We're still working very hard with Stream to see how we can move the projects forward. And in the meantime, we're concentrating on trying to get the PPA restricted cash release.
所以進度比我們原先預期的慢。我們仍在非常努力地與 Stream 合作,看看如何推動專案往前走。同時,我們把重點放在爭取 PPA 受限制現金的釋放。
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Colin Rusch - Analyst
That's perfect, guys. And then just from a cost perspective, I'm just thinking about the next 15 to 18 months and some of the kind of volatility in the supply chain kind of broadly speaking in commodity prices. Just want to get a sense of how you're managing some of those inputs and how we might think about that getting potentially passed through from a pricing perspective?
非常好,各位。接著從成本角度來看,我在想未來 15 到 18 個月,以及供應鏈在大宗商品價格方面整體而言的一些波動。我想了解你們如何管理這些投入成本,以及從定價角度我們應該如何看待這些成本可能被轉嫁出去?
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
There's a couple of different elements to your point, your comments, but let me talk about if Jose Luis, okay, I'll talk about the supply chain and the cost side. I'd actually say I'm super excited because the last couple of years, we've been really focused on driving inventory levels down and that's created a challenge of working with the supply chain of driving additional leverage, but we've made a lot of progress and even though we have additional opportunity there. The shift is coming to a point where with the growth of sales, we can actually work with suppliers with next generation of improvements, next generation of price downs. And so we're actually seeing resurgence, if you will, of opportunities where we're actually getting more leverage on that supply chain scope and working with our partners.
你提到的點、你的評論包含幾個不同面向,不過讓我先談供應鏈與成本端;Jose Luis——好,我來談供應鏈和成本面。我其實非常振奮,因為過去幾年我們一直很專注於把庫存水位降下來,這在與供應鏈合作、爭取更多槓桿時帶來一些挑戰,但我們已經取得很大進展,雖然仍有更多機會。隨著銷售成長,情勢正走到一個點:我們其實可以與供應商合作,推動下一代的改善、下一代的降價。因此我們確實看到——可以這麼說——機會再度浮現,我們在供應鏈範疇上取得更多槓桿,並與合作夥伴一起推進。
And obviously, sales growth helps a lot in that. Volume helps a lot in terms of being able to optimize your manufacturing process from a scrap and standpoint, so there's no dynamics, but we actually haven't seen tremendous pressure at a point where some of we don't have the same reliance on things like copper and other precious metals at that level that create that kind of dynamic. So we haven't really felt that. There's always some levels of it, but I'd say it's more on the positive side in terms of the leverage of the volumes and so forth.
而且很明顯地,銷售成長對此幫助很大。就能否最佳化製造流程(例如報廢率等面向)而言,規模/產量(volume)也很有幫助,所以確實存在一些動態因素;但我們並沒有看到非常巨大的壓力,因為我們在那個層級上並不像以往那樣高度依賴銅或其他貴金屬,去造成那種動態。所以我們並沒有真的感受到那種壓力。當然總會有一些程度的影響,但我會說整體更偏正面,主要來自於量的槓桿等等。
And on the pricing side, I guess I'll turn to Jose Luis in terms of pricing strategy and so forth with working with customers, but they're pretty astute. They pay attention to what's going on in the market, they're pretty astute to what's going on with us and so pricing is more of a holistic conversation with them, but I don't know that I necessarily see the need or the opportunity to kind of focus specifically on commodities in terms of pushing those kind of pricing points through to the customer base.
在定價方面,我想我會把定價策略以及與客戶合作等相關問題交給 Jose Luis 來回答,但他們其實相當精明。他們會關注市場上正在發生的事情,也很清楚我們這邊的動態,因此定價更像是與他們進行一個整體性的討論;但我不確定我是否真的看到有必要或有機會,去特別聚焦在大宗商品上,並把那類定價點推進到客戶群。
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We went through price adjustments, as you know over the last couple of years, especially on the hydrogen side. We continue every year reviewing hydrogen because that's specifically the one that is affecting more on a year-over-year basis, I always think about pricing with customers associated to the value the solution provides. We believe that material handling brings a lot of value to our customers and this is why we are able to hold prices overtime.
如你所知,過去幾年我們做過價格調整,尤其是在氫氣這一塊。我們每年都會持續檢視氫氣,因為這是對年對年影響最明顯的一項;我一直認為,與客戶談定價應該要與解決方案所提供的價值連結。我們相信物料搬運能為客戶帶來很大的價值,這也是為什麼我們能夠長期維持價格。
The other thing is that over time also, we discover more value that the technology brings to customers. For example, in the environment that we live in today with utility power constraint, our solutions actually bring an advantage to our customers in terms of managing better the utility power that they use, we discussed this in past calls. So as we evolve, the technology evolves and the use of it evolves, the value that we provide to customers also evolves and increases.
另外一點是,隨著時間推移,我們也會發現這項技術能為客戶帶來更多價值。例如,在我們今天所處的環境中,公用事業電力受限,我們的解決方案其實能在更好管理其用電方面為客戶帶來優勢,我們在過去的電話會議中也討論過。因此,隨著我們演進、技術演進、使用方式也演進,我們提供給客戶的價值也會隨之演進並提升。
So from that point of view, we believe we are well positioned to keep the pricing what it is. And in the case of the hydrogen side, we review pricing as needed based on the cost of production.
從這個角度來看,我們相信我們處於有利位置,可以把定價維持在目前的水準。至於氫氣這一端,我們會依據生產成本在需要時檢視定價。
Operator
Operator
Jason Tilchen, Canaccord Genuity.
Jason Tilchen,Canaccord Genuity。
Jason Tilchen - Equity Analyst
Jason Tilchen - Equity Analyst
Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions.
下午好,謝謝讓我提問。
Apologies if this has already been covered off as I've been jumping between a few calls, but was hoping you could maybe walk us through the bridge from Q3 to Q4 on an EBITDA basis. I understand I think you referenced gross margin being the biggest factor there contributing that improvement, but maybe a little bit more color, especially on the equipment side of things, how much of that coming from operating leverage, higher throughput versus some of the other efficiencies, that would be very helpful?
如果這題已經被談過先說聲抱歉,因為我在幾場電話會議之間來回切換;但我想請你們帶我們走一遍,從 Q3 到 Q4 在 EBITDA 層面的銜接(bridge)。我理解你們提到毛利率是推動改善的最大因素,但能否再多給一些細節,特別是在設備端:其中有多少來自營運槓桿、產能/產出提升(higher throughput),相較於其他效率提升?這會很有幫助。
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Jason. Good question. I'll let Paul (multiple speakers) --
謝謝你,Jason。好問題。我讓 Paul(多位發言者)—
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Paul Middleton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
My favorite question, I get to answer all the time and I think I'm excited because we're knee deep in the quarter and we're seeing it unfold. There's still a lot of work to do and a lot of things we've got to accomplish. But at a high level, I guess what I would share with you is what I have shared is that if you look at our guidance that we reaffirm today in context of where we're at to date. It would mathematically it gets you to roughly about $280 million of sales in Q4, and that's about 40% growth off of Q2.
我最喜歡的問題,我一直都有機會回答,而且我很興奮,因為我們現在正深入在本季當中,看到它逐步展開。還有很多工作要做,也有很多事情必須完成。但從高層次來說,我想跟你分享的是我先前也分享過的:如果你看我們今天重申的指引,並結合我們目前為止的進度,用數學推算,Q4 大約會到約 2.8 億美元的銷售額,這相較於 Q2 約有 40% 的成長。
Majority of that is equipment sales, and most of that is material handling, which we've actually we've really ramped the margin profile in that. If you ever have the luxury of coming to see our plant here, and one thing you notice is that we have a tremendous amount of opportunity to scale volume and get even greater operating leverage. So every incremental piece of equipment and dollar for sales, especially on the equipment side for material handling, offers significant contribution margin. It can be in the upward range of 30% to 40%. That's going to be super powerful.
其中大部分是設備銷售,而多數又是物料搬運;我們其實已經大幅拉升了這一塊的毛利結構。如果你有機會來參觀我們這裡的工廠,你會注意到我們在擴大量能、取得更高營運槓桿方面有非常大的空間。因此,每增加一台設備、每增加一美元的銷售額,特別是在物料搬運的設備端,都能帶來顯著的貢獻毛利。可能落在 30% 到 40% 的上行區間。這會非常有力。
We talked about fuel to date and I'm knocking on wood, we've been running our plants very well this quarter by avoiding rebalancing the sourcing mix, we think that could be $5 million to $7 million of opportunity to improve that margin profile by not having to do so many pickups and then there's a handful of other dynamics. Warrants we expect to be slightly down because of the mix with higher sales to Walmart as an example. And there's other operational efficiencies we're driving, but the key is really fundamentally sales volume and mix, that's the key driver for the quarter and will be one of the biggest bridge factors as we look to achieve our targets for Q4.
我們也談過截至目前的燃料情況,我敲敲木頭(希望保持順利),本季我們透過避免重新平衡採購來源組合,讓工廠運轉得很好;我們認為,若不必做那麼多取貨(pickups),就有機會帶來約 500 萬到 700 萬美元的改善空間,進而提升毛利結構;此外還有一些其他動態。我們預期權證(warrants)會因組合因素略為下降,例如對 Walmart 的銷售占比提高。另外我們也在推動其他營運效率,但關鍵其實是銷售量與產品組合,這是本季最主要的驅動因素,也會是我們在達成 Q4 目標時,橋接分析中最大的因素之一。
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, so we are laser focused on executing. As Paul said, there's mix, there's all the things that we need to actually get done in the quarter. There are a couple of commercial items that we also need to close. We have a line of sight, it's going to take work, but we are, as I said, focused on getting to EBITDAS positive in Q4.
是的,所以我們非常專注在執行。如 Paul 所說,有組合因素,也有本季我們必須實際完成的所有事項。另外也有幾個商務項目需要完成簽結。我們看得到達成的路徑,這會需要努力,但正如我所說,我們專注於在 Q4 達成 EBITDA 轉正。
Operator
Operator
Saumya Jain, UBS.
Saumya Jain,UBS。
Saumya Jain - Analyst
Saumya Jain - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question.
嗨,下午好。謝謝讓我提問。
Just one quick one for me. So you maintained your full year '26 revenue growth guide. So with year-to-date revenue around $543 million, what specific customer installations, orders or developments are fully locked in to give you the confidence in hitting that target for the remainder of the year?
我只有一個簡短問題。你們維持了 2026 全年營收成長指引。以年初至今營收約 5.43 億美元來看,哪些特定的客戶安裝、訂單或進展是已完全鎖定(fully locked in)的,讓你們對今年剩餘期間達成該目標有信心?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it's a little bit of a mix, right? We have projects that are locked in and are in an execution with Amazon, with Walmart, with other material handling customers. As I mentioned before, we also have a fair amount of refreshes of units of GenDrive with Walmart that we're working on. And on the electrolyzer side, we have mainly the finalization or basically commissioning of some of the projects that we have in Europe, a few projects here in the US as well and also the progress- - revenue recognition for progress in projects like ALT, like Iberdrola, but also some of the revenue is coming from Orica already and from Carlton Power. So it's a little bit of a mix. We have a lot locked in terms of commercial agreements and now it's a matter of execution. Q4 is going to be a matter of execution and a matter of producing, installing and commissioning.
所以這有點是組合,對吧?我們有一些已鎖定、且正在執行中的專案,包含 Amazon、Walmart,以及其他物料搬運客戶。如我先前提到的,我們也正在推進相當數量的 GenDrive 單元更新(refresh),與 Walmart 合作進行。而在電解槽(electrolyzer)方面,主要是我們在歐洲的一些專案進入最後收尾或基本上是試運轉/投運(commissioning),美國這邊也有幾個專案;同時也包含像 ALT、Iberdrola 這類專案的進度—依進度認列營收(revenue recognition for progress);另外也已有部分營收來自 Orica,以及 Carlton Power。所以這是一個混合。我們在商務協議方面已鎖定很多,接下來就是執行的問題。Q4 會是執行的問題,也是生產、安裝與試運轉/投運的問題。
Operator
Operator
Chris Senyek, Wolfe Research.
Chris Senyek,Wolfe Research。
Chris Senyek - Analyst
Chris Senyek - Analyst
I wanted to just ask about the 8-gigawatt BEDP pipeline, how much of that is still active, how much has it grown and how much could you realistically contribute that to '27 revenue?
我想問一下 8 吉瓦的 BEDP 管線(pipeline):其中有多少仍然是活躍的、有多少已經成長,以及你們實際上能在 2027 年營收中貢獻多少?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So most of it is active, some of it is what you're already seeing converting, for example, the 280 megawatts with Arcadia and a couple of the projects that we have with Arcadia. Specifically one in Texas, another 280 megawatts, very similar to the one in Denmark are part of those 8 gigawatts. So you're seeing already some of those projects either moving towards FID, signing agreements until with pending notice to proceed. You will see other projects that we're going to hopefully announce before the end of the year.
其中大部分是活躍的,有一部分就是你已經看到正在轉換的,例如與 Arcadia 的 280 兆瓦,以及我們與 Arcadia 的幾個專案。具體來說,德州有一個、另外還有一個 280 兆瓦,與丹麥那個非常類似,都是這 8 吉瓦的一部分。所以你已經看到其中一些專案正朝向 FID(最終投資決策)推進、簽署協議,並在等待開工通知(notice to proceed)。你也會看到其他專案,我們希望能在年底前宣布。
But out of the 8 gigawatts, most of it is still at play, most of it are still moving ahead. Some of the revenues we already seen, as I said, Orica is already in percentage of completion revenue recognition and we're going to see a little bit of it in Q4 and the majority of it in 2027. The Carlton Power projects are the same thing as we get the notice to proceed for the projects with Arcadia, you will see some revenue and the revenue will start very quickly because the majority of these projects being so large are projects that are set up for percentage of completion.
但在這 8 吉瓦之中,大部分仍在推進中,大部分仍在持續往前走。如我所說,我們已經看到部分營收;Orica 已經採用完工百分比法(percentage of completion)進行營收認列,我們會在第四季看到一小部分,而大部分將在 2027 年反映。Carlton Power 的專案也是同樣情況;當我們收到與 Arcadia 相關專案的開工通知(notice to proceed)後,你會看到一些營收,而且營收會很快開始,因為這些大型專案多數都是以完工百分比法來建置與認列。
I would also say that we always talk about the 8 gigawatts funnel of qualified projects and opportunities. In reality, we have a much larger funnel on electrolyzers. We just and I think I mentioned this before, we try to pick the projects that we feel are better qualified to convert into FID in that funnel and in that part of the funnel. Some of them come in, some of them come out, but as a total, we believe that we have a good opportunity to keep converting those projects into of reality.
我也想說,我們一直在談那個 8 吉瓦、已合格專案與機會的漏斗。但實際上,我們在電解槽方面的漏斗要大得多。我們只是——我想我之前也提過——我們會在那個漏斗、以及漏斗的那一段中,挑選我們認為更有資格轉換為 FID 的專案。有些會進來、有些會出去,但就總體而言,我們相信我們有很好的機會持續把這些專案轉化為現實。
And as I mentioned before, the legislation in Europe is becoming a reality in countries like Spain, in France, there is also a big push for that. In countries like in Germany, we are seeing some of those projects becoming more and more feasible and more and more bankable. We were going to talk a lot about that during our Symposium. We have some of our customers at Arcadia coming to the Symposium. We have a couple of bankers, we have Hy24 and we have Société Générale also coming to the Symposium to talk about how these projects are moving and are advancing to FID. So I recommend that you join the Symposium and we can talk a little bit more about how these projects are becoming financial.
而且如我先前提到,歐洲的相關立法正在成為現實,在西班牙、法國等國家也有很大的推動力。在德國等國家,我們看到其中一些專案正變得越來越可行、也越來越具備可融資性(bankable)。我們會在研討會(Symposium)期間大量談到這些內容。我們有一些 Arcadia 的客戶會來參加研討會。我們也有幾位銀行界人士,Hy24 以及法國興業銀行(Société Générale)也會出席研討會,討論這些專案如何推進並朝 FID 邁進。因此我建議你參加研討會,我們可以更深入談談這些專案如何逐步具備財務可行性。
Chris Senyek - Analyst
Chris Senyek - Analyst
Yeah, fantastic. Thanks for sharing. I'll definitely attend.
是的,太棒了。謝謝分享。我一定會參加。
And just on maybe the refresh cycle, I know you talked about that 20,000-unit number. I believe that's over for three years and you gave a data point of 2,000 and 2,504 Q. Just are you able to share sort of cadence for the rest of the remaining refresh cycle?
另外關於可能的汰換(refresh)週期,我知道你提到那個 20,000 台的數字。我理解那是三年期間的總量,而你也提供了 2,000 台以及 2,504 台(Q)的數據點。你是否能分享一下,在剩餘的汰換週期中,後續的節奏(cadence)大概會是怎樣?
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean, we could, but just so you get the idea is we did our first project with Amazon and I think I mentioned this in a prior call in October of 2016. And after that, we started basically deploying in large numbers sites every year, so 2017, 2018, 2019, one of the years I remember we deployed probably about 30 sites with around 250 to 300 units per site. So that's going to be the cadence that we're going to see and that's going to be just with the Amazon side.
我的意思是,我們可以分享,但先讓你理解一下:我們與 Amazon 的第一個專案是在 2016 年 10 月,我想我在之前的電話會議也提過。之後,我們基本上每年都以大量的站點進行部署,所以在 2017、2018、2019;我記得其中有一年我們部署了大約 30 個站點,每個站點約 250 到 300 台設備。所以這就是我們將會看到的節奏,而這僅限於 Amazon 這一端。
With the Walmart side, as I said, we start kind of the new wave of refreshes in Q4. With Walmart, we've been doing refreshes for several cycles already, but the new wave of refreshes starts now with 2,500 or so units and next year, we'll see some more as well. It's going to be -- the cadence is the same cadence as when we installed them originally.
至於 Walmart 這一端,如我所說,我們在第四季開始新一波的汰換。對 Walmart 而言,我們已經做過好幾個週期的汰換,但新一波汰換現在開始,約 2,500 台左右;明年也會再看到一些。其節奏——會與我們當初原始安裝時的節奏相同。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Jose Luis for closing comments.
謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回給 Jose Luis 做結語。
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jose Crespo - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you all for your questions and your continued engagement. Our priorities for the rest of 2026 are clear: deliver the fourth quarter, as we just discussed convert our commercial pipeline, which we also discussed today protect our liquidity through reducing our cash needs and achieve positive EBITDAs in Q4. Three quarters into this year, the numbers tell a consistent story. Sales are up, margins are improving, operating expenses are down and we are still steadily reducing our cash needs. We still have the work to do, we still have work to do, but Plug's team is doing what we said we would do.
感謝各位的提問以及持續的參與。我們在 2026 年剩餘期間的優先事項很明確:如我們剛才討論的,交付第四季表現;轉化我們的商業管線(我們今天也談到了);透過降低現金需求來保護流動性;並在第四季達成 EBITDA 轉正。今年進行到第三季,數據呈現一致的趨勢。銷售成長、毛利率改善、營運費用下降,而我們也仍在穩步降低現金需求。我們仍有工作要做,我們仍有工作要做,但 Plug 的團隊正在做我們說過會做的事。
Now it's about finishing the year. Thank you for your support, and we look forward to reporting on our fourth quarter and our full-year results. And I'm looking forward also to seeing you during the Symposium, November 19.
現在重點是把今年收尾完成。感謝各位的支持,我們期待在第四季與全年業績公布時向各位報告。我也期待在 11 月 19 日的研討會上與各位見面。
Thank you, everyone.
謝謝各位。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation. _____ _____
今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。_____ _____