Park Aerospace Corp (PKE) 2025Q1電話會議重點和逐字稿

Brian Shore - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Alicia. This is Brian. Welcome to Park's fiscal '25 Q1 investor conference call. Nice to have you all on board. I have with me, as usual, Matt Farabaugh, our CFO. Also, Mark Esquivel, President and COO.

We issued our published earnings release, first-quarter earnings release after the close. You want to take a look at that. In the earnings release, there are instructions as to how you can access the presentation we're about to go through. It's also posted on our website if you want to go that route.

The last investor call, the Q4 investor call, was only six weeks ago. So normally, we have a three-month time frame in doing calls. So what we'll do is focus on mostly new and updated information in this investor call. Try not to go over too many things we covered in our Q4 call. Of course, at the end of the presentation, we'll be happy to take any questions you might have.

Let's go on to slide 2, forward-looking disclaimer. If you have any questions about the forward-looking disclaimer language, let us know. Slide 3. So we have a little table of contents here, Q1 investor presentation. After that, supplementary financial information, as usual, we provide this to you, but we don't cover it. We'll review it during the call, but if you have any questions about it, let us know.

We're featuring the James Webb Space Telescope here, as you know. This great James Webb was constructed with Park's proprietary sigma stretch, and it's really quite an amazing thing. Just recently, I think, maybe the last couple of weeks, we discovered the most distant oldest galaxy that so far has been discovered, 290 million years after the Big Bang, which is very recent after the Big Bang. The Big Bang supposedly was about 13.8 billion years ago.

And the key point here is this is not supposed to happen. These galaxies aren't supposed to exist so early in the development of the universe. Through the James Webb, really, most of our views about the universe and its origin are just kind of being blown out of the water. Quite interesting.

Let's go on to slide 4, our quarterly results for fiscal '23, '24, and '25. Q1, as you know from the news release, I guess, sales $13,970,000, gross profit a little over $4 million; gross margin, 29.3%; and EBITDA, just EBITDA, $2.6 million.

I just want to remind you, last quarter, we went through a number of things that affect our earnings over the longer haul related to ramping up our business and what we call a juggernaut and setting up our new facility. And one of the things we mentioned, we're not going to go through all those things again, but I just want to bring depreciation to your attention.

The new factory depreciation is about $1.3 million per year. And that equates to about 2.3% of the gross margin. So depreciation actually does affect gross margin because it's part of the cost of goods sold. It doesn't affect EBITDA, of course, by definition.

Let's go on to slide 5. So slide 5, what did we say about Q1 during our Q4 investor call, which took place on May 30, not six weeks ago? We had a sales estimate of $15.75 million, $16.25 million, and as I just said, $14 million of sales. That seems a little strange, doesn't it?

Adjusted EBITDA estimate, $3.25 million to $3.75 million. That was our estimate. We have EBITDA at $2.6 million. So what's going on here? Just to remind you, the Q1 sales estimate that we provided during our Q4 call was based upon fully booked sales in Q1, and the Q1 EBITDA estimate was based upon those fully booked sales. So obviously, you know what I'm leading to.

However, the language in bold. And this language, we're just taking it from our Q4 call, so it's a little awkward. These are things we said during Q4. It may seem a little bit strange. But however, our fiscal year '25 Q1 sales and EBITDA will be impacted by then unknown amounts, but storm damage to the company's facilities, which were reported in a May 22, 2024, company news release.

Again, this is speaking on May 30. And although it was reported in the news release, and then unknown amount of Q1 sales will slip from Q1 into Q2. As a result of the storm damage, we do not expect, or we did not expect to lose any sales or business as a result of storm damage, and we still don't expect to lose any.

Okay, let's go on to slide 6. What about that storm? Let's talk about the storm damage. Now we have more information about it. On Sunday, May 19, at approximately 8:00 PM local time, Park's Newton, Kansas facilities were damaged by strong straight-line winds reportedly reaching 100 miles an hour. Not a tornado as far as we know, but straight-line winds could actually be more damaging than tornadoes in some cases.

The very good news is none of our people were at the facilities at the time, and nobody was hurt. We were lucky with the timing of the storm from that perspective. That's probably the only night of the week, maybe Saturday, but every other night at 8:00 PM, there'll be a lot of people at the facility. And inside the facility, there are shelters, storm shelters. But if people are outside, going back and forth in the car, cars at a time of a storm like this, that could have been a very bad result. We're very lucky and fortunate that did not happen.

Unfortunately, though, that was the good news with the timing. The storm damage occurred at the very beginning of the last two weeks of Q1. That's the bad news with the timing. As a result, production was seriously disrupted during those last two weeks of the quarter, and shipments, meaning sales, were significantly negatively impacted during those last two weeks of the quarter. Now we understand the big discrepancy between what we estimated and what actually happened for Q1.

But Park's people did an incredible job recovering from the storm and storm damage. And thanks to our people, our facilities were fully operational with the employment of certain temporary measures, by June 3, '24, and that's the first day of Park's fiscal year '25 Q2. And that's just two weeks after the storm occurred, so quite a remarkable job, I believe, in storm recovery by the Park people.

Slide 7, what was damaged by the storm? See, I keep getting questions about all this stuff, so maybe some of this is old hat for you. It's boring, but we haven't really provided this information, so I'm going through it all now because I've had lots and lots of questions about these different aspects of the storm.

What was damaged? The roofs in all three buildings, we have three buildings on our campus were damaged and likely will need to be replaced. The roofs were very quickly temporarily repaired, and the roofs are secure.

Numerous specialty HVAC units were either damaged or destroyed and will need to be repaired. Repairs are complete or replaced, pending the replacements, new units are in order. Temporary temperature and humidity control has been in place. These HVAC units are not just for people comfort. They were required to maintain certain temperature and humidity limitations within certain aspects of the plant, the labs, and other production areas of the plant.

So let's see where we are here. Company cars in the parking lot were damaged. Yeah, they were damaged, but also they weren't where they were left. They were physically moved to different parts of the parking area. And there was minor additional damage to the facilities like the R&D building. It's roll-up doors, garage doors damaged.

What was not damaged by the storm? This is probably the more important question. The structures of the three buildings located at the campus, they were not damaged other than the roof damage, which we already mentioned. The production equipment, none of the production equipment was damaged, obviously good news. Production lab and R&D lab equipment, not damaged by the storm.

So let's go on to slide 7. By the way, I should tell you, these HVAC units, they're on the roof, and some were physically ripped off the roof. They were in the parking lot, obviously wrecked. They fell off the top of the building in the parking lot when we arrived at the facility. Quite a storm.

Slide 8. How long will it take to complete all the repairs? It could take up to six months. I'm not sure, but all production lab facilities, as we said, have been fully operational and functional since June 3, and they continue to be fully operational and functional.

What about insurance? Another question we keep getting asked. The company's property insurance policy contains a wind damage deductible provision of approximately $2.5 million. So for fire, it's much less, but for wind damage, the deductible is quite high. And we do that intentionally because we could have a much lower deductible, but it's going to cost us with our premium, annual premium.

And so when we think about insurance for parking anyway, we think about cash traffic costs. The smaller for parking, we lost $2 million, $2.5 million. We have the cash. We'd rather insure that ourselves because if we don't, we buy insurance. We're betting against the bank.

The insurance company is always going to be smarter than us, but we just win over time. So we don't play that game. The company submitted a claim against this policy. Any recovery the company received for the policy will be accounted for to time the recovery.

Let's go on to slide 9 on how we accounted for the storm. The company recognized a one-time charge. This is in our Q1 report, in our Q1 of approximately $1.1 million, predominantly to account for the write-down of the book value of the buildings which were damaged and the equipment which was either damaged or destroyed.

This charge also included approximately $80,000 of people costs incurred during those two weeks on the storm, but many Park people were working on the storm recovery and cleanup rather than a production and testing of products. In other words, they're making stuff that we sell. They're working, but they're not producing anything, so that was part of their charge.

Just so you know, if you know Park at all, I doubt you're shocked to hear this, our hourly people were fully paid during those two weeks. Some companies, the salary people, they get paid to send the hourly people home. They get screwed. We don't do that kind of stuff at Park. The hourly people, they were mostly working on the storm recovery and cleanup. New and replacement equipment will be accounted for, that means capitalized at the time of their purchases and installations. Okay.

Then let's go on to slide 10. Total misshipments in Q1, a doozy of a number, $2.5 million. What were the causes? Well, the first one is storm-related misshipments, $1.8 million. That's the big one, of course. I think we estimated when we did our Q4 call, I don't remember this exactly, maybe $2 million, so something like that, $1.8 million.

Supply chain and other issues, approximately $300,000. This is a little bit, it requires a little explanation, because we said we were going to manage our supply chain by carrying inventory and providing loan at lead times. This is actually a case where one of our major suppliers is struggling a little bit to meet one of our customer specs, so it's not that there wasn't effective planning. These things had to get worked out over time, and they always do, ultimately do.

International shipments, we talk about this quite a bit. Every quarter, we've got wars in the Middle East and Europe, about $400,000. Question, what portion of the supply chain and international shipment issues could have been ameliorated if our Park people were not singularly focused on storm recovery? I mean, I don't know the answer to that question, but my guess is it's more than zero. That was the focus. We had to get our factory back up and running. We had customers who needed product.

Bottom line is we're very delighted that none of our people were hurt by the storm. That was a good part of it. When the timing of the storm was unfortunate, as it relates to our Q1, luck was not on our side in that regard.

Let's go on to slide 11, Park's balance sheet, cash, and cash dividend history. I was once told by one of our key investors, they recommended that we cover this every quarter. I thought it was a good recommendation, so we do that.

We have a zero long-term debt. We reported $74.4 million in cash and markup series at the end of Q1. I always have to remind you, though, there's still $9.3 million of remaining tax transition installment payments payable from the end of Q1 through June of '25. This relates to repatriation, I think.

So a payment of $4.2 million was made in [June '24], but that's not reflected in Q1. June is in Q2. It's a total of $9.3 million based upon the Q1 reported cash. In $9.3 million, we paid $4.2 million, about $5.1 million to go and that's payable in June of next year.

All right. Park's cash dividend, we paid 39 consecutive years of uninterrupted regular cash dividends without ever skipping a dividend or reducing a dividend amount. In bold, Park has paid $594 million, or $28,097.50 per share in cash dividends since the beginning of fiscal '25. My comment is always, that's a hell of a lot of money for a little company like Park, probably even a big company, $594 million. A lot of cash, I would think. Not chump change, as they say.

Let's go on to slide 12. Fiscal year '25 Q1, top five customers, something that's one of our regular features. Avio relates to the Vega launcher. That's an ablated material. You're probably not surprised to see that. Kratos obviously relates to Kratos fire jet, unmanned aircraft, structural materials, materials for the aircraft structures. Lifeport, that relates to Sikorsky. Those are materials for interiors.

MRAS, Middle River, we're using a lot of different aircraft. We've got a feature for that, or we can't feature for MRAS. We chose the [COMAC ARJ21], materials for the cells and thrust reversers. NORDAM, the Bombardier Global 7500 business jet, that's materials for GE Passport 20 primary structures. It's an engine component, which are primary structures for that engine.

So let's go on to slide 13. I won't spend a lot of time on this. Sorry, my chart -- on your chart. The new ones in the middle, Q1, I guess the only thing I'd point out is commercial is a little lower. And I think that's because as a ratio, we lost -- because of the storm, we lost more MRAS business, more commercial business than the non-commercial. We'll cover that later on.

Let's go on to slide 14. Park was niche military aerospace programs. This is always the latest project. I should mention the top five that's on this project. So let's see. What are we talking about here? The programs themselves, the Aster 30 bladed materials, not surprisingly, Boeing Osprey, materials for aircraft structures; the McDonnell Douglas Harrier II material aircraft structures. And this SkyKnight system, multi-target short-range air defense missile. This is interesting.

These are bladed materials, not surprising -- for a new program, and we're making our first shipment this month in the program. So that's good news. The pie chart itself, as you always say, radomes, rocket nozzles, drones, those are niche markets for Park, military. But even for us, aircraft structures, we consider to be a niche market as far as military is concerned.

Let's go on to slide 15. Now we talked a lot about supply chain last quarter, why we're doing it again because it's becoming more of an issue, we think, and it's becoming recognized as more of an issue. So we're going to go back over it again, it adds some additional information. Supply chain challenges, you just don't want to go away. Whenever we hear that they're behind us, we find that they're not behind us. We didn't -- we didn't hear back in '21.

That supply chain challenges would be all behind us in '22. I think we did. Then we hear in '22, challenges would be things of the past in '23. I think we heard that. There are recent statements by aerospace industry leaders, including GE Aerospace and Avolon that supply chain issues will persist at the end of '25 or longer. That's just since our Q4 presentation earnings calls. This is really new stuff.

Another new item, Safran is building a new turbine blade facility in order to increase turbine blade production since supply chain is just not making it. What are supply chain issues really all about? What's causing them? Why wouldn't they go away? Are they fundamentally workforce issues have the workforce issues been resolved?

So you can have all the great factories and all the equipment and everything else. You get not only people but trained people to operate this stuff, you're not going to be able to produce the products you need to produce. So there goes the supply -- which leads to the supply chain issues.

Let's go on to slide 16. We hear unemployment is not that bad, but is that the full story, not really. 7.2 million able bodied men are not working, left the workforce forever. Why is that happening?

Plus, here's a new thing. They are new in this presentation, not new to the industry. The aerospace industry laid off millions of employees many of whom are highly experienced at the beginning of the pandemic. With a benefit of hindsight, that was not so brilliant. As you know, Park laid off not one employee, but Park was apparently very alone in that regard.

Many of the experienced employees laid off by the aerospace industry have not come back, probably never come back. Really a sad situation. Aerospace manufacturing is quirky and enigmatic. What do you mean by that? It needs to be learned over many years, it's not intuitive. You have the smartest guy in town or downtown, you put them in aerospace manufacturing. They're not going to figure it out just intuitively, just quirky stuff you have to learn over a long, long period of time.

What is it like replacing employees that have 25 years of aerospace experience with employees with 25 days? That's not a rhetorical question. It's not such a good thing. It's a bear, very difficult because that's reality in some cases.

Let's go on to slide 17. How is that working out? Not so well. I see the problem, we see it every day in the industry, not pretty. I was just talking to, I guess he's the Head of Engineering, one of our customers who was meeting with an OEM with his guys, and they were talking about some basic testing procedures for composite materials, very, very, very basic, very basic. I'm not going to say what it was.

But -- and they look to them like what is that? And we were shocked -- you don't know what that is? I mean it wasn't insulting. It's just like, wow, these are probably smart people, but they just had no experience. People that left during the pandemic probably had 20 years of experience. So it was really kind of -- I don't know what you call it, like revealing to have that discussion.

What the ongoing supply chain challenges mean for the aerospace industry? These challenges are impacting program ramp-ups and new program introductions as evidenced by the recent Airbus announcement, which we'll discuss below. What's an example of a defense program? How about Patriot missiles?

Have you read this recently that we, the US government -- these are for military sales or US government has approved them. We're reallocating them from countries that were signed up for Patriot missiles, supposed to get them. We're taking away their Patriot missiles to give to Ukraine.

Now, our government said, we're not including Taiwan and Israel, okay, well, who are we including? Maybe Japan, maybe Korea, lots of European countries. Why are we doing that? Why don't we just produce more of these missile systems because everybody wants them? Well, why are we not doing it because of supply chain restrictions and limitations?

Of course, that would be the preference, not to give [Rappi or PayPal], to give them to everybody who wants them. These are all approved countries. You're not getting Patriot missiles to enemies. Demand is there, but the industry is falling short, meaning demand, where's this going? Is there any solution in sight?

Yeah, there might be. I have some thoughts about it. I'm not going to go through them now, but there might be. What does it mean to Park? At Park, we found ways to manage our supply chain challenges with better planning, strategically carrying more inventory and providing suppliers longer lead times. But these supply chain issues, they threw major challenge for us and very consuming of our time and energy.

Importantly, in some cases, like the two examples we just mentioned, the program's part supplies into are being negatively impacted by supply chain constraints and issues unrelated to our supply chain. These are just supply chain issues that these OEMs have that don't relate to our specific supply chain and they negatively impact these programs.

Slide 18, let's change gears here. We won't spend a lot of time on this slide because we cover it every quarter. So I think we showed just to give you the perspective -- GE Aerospace, we made a change, used to be GE Aviation. GE Aerospace jet engine programs, such an important part of Park's business, so we carved every quarter.

Just some basics firm pricing LTA, it's a requirements contract from '19 to '29 with Middle River Aerostructure Systems, MRAS, a sub of ST Engineering Aerospace. And we always explain this, what is this about? All these programs are GE Aerospace programs, how did this happen?

Well, when we got into these programs, MRAS was a sub of GE Aerospace and then GE Aerospace, I don't know, three, four, five years ago, I don't remember, sold MRAS and ST Engineering, but they're still the GE programs.

By the way, I think we mentioned in the past, but under this LTA, our pricing goes up on January 1, 2025. So redundant factory. We built a redundant factory that's in production. And we're sole source on composite materials for these programs. We're not going to go into the program. We talk about every quarter.

Nice picture of the legendary Boeing 747, engine itself, We love this picture because you get a perspective on the size of these cells. You see this guy in the background. He looks pretty small, doesn't he?

Let's go on to slide 19. We don't need to cover the first item. The second item, containment wrap for GE9X engines. That's something that could be an important program for Park using our AFP materials. The third and fourth item relate to our film adhesive product forms, they're in qualification and also, they've been added to the LTA, life of program agreement requested by MRS and STE, agreement is in progress.

What is the life of program agreement mean to Park? Well, probably a lot. Although if you ask my personal opinion is that we're on these programs, we're going to be in these programs whether we have an agreement or not, although it is the intention of MRAS and STE that we have a life of program agreement, they are the ones that have requested it, and it's still in progress. I guess that's all saying about it right now.

Let's go to slide 20. Update on GE Aerospace jet engine programs. The first one is A320 aircraft family. That's a Big Kahuna, I guess. Everyone has this huge backlog. We're updating this number 700 -- sorry, 7,137. That's just a lot of airplanes, if you know aerospace, commercial aerospace, that's just so many airplanes.

Airbus is maintaining, this is a key point here, that intended to achieve a rate of 75 NEO family aircraft deliveries per month in '26. And they reiterated that double down on that intention during the recent annual meeting and their first quarter investor call, 75 per month, '26.

Let's go on to slide 21. And we don't have to go through it. Just a little history about the delivery rates. I guess the point of interest is in '23. Airbus finally exceeded '19, which is a pre-pandemic year. And then in the first six months of '24, similar to the first six months of '23, a little bit more, but not significantly. Clearly, based upon this huge, huge backlog, Airbus already would be at the rate of 75 per month, if not for supply chain constraints limitations.

Let's go on to slide 22. Here's the big news. Then on June 24, 2024. I mean this is just a few weeks ago, the Airbus surprisingly announced that its pushing on its goal of achieving 75 A320 aircraft family that rate from '26 to '27, the 75 aircraft family delivery rate from '26 to '27. And not surprisingly, what did Airbus highlight? Supply chain issues and limitations as the key reason for the pushout.

But what is surprising is Airbus highlighted engine availability related to both the Pratt and the CFM engines as the main supply chain corporate. Why is it surprising? Because that was the case, Airbus would say that was the case, the engines were the limitation.

I think maybe a couple of years ago, the engines were limitation. And then maybe about a year ago, they said, wait, we're good with engines, everything is good with engines. The new limitations, what was it? It was castings and forgings, materials, electronics like maybe semiconductors and I forgot one other thing. I don't remember. But it was not engines anymore, not engines anymore. So good. We're good with engines. That was wonderful.

So what happened? We're back to talking about engines as the main problem. Airbus further commented that engine availability -- significantly integrated in recent weeks or recent weeks that Airbus will end up with gliders. You know what that means? They're going to have these airplanes sitting in the ramp with no engines, gliders, to go in gliders.

Airbus also commented that the engine story is a new situation that we're not expecting. So wow, this one has really blinded side of Airbus, kind of shocking. Just push-out of the 75 A320neo per month target certainly is a setback and disappointment maybe a little embarrassment for Airbus.

With push-out, the target will provide Airbus with more leeway and runway to achieve its new target, maybe more realistic target. And we believe Airbus will be more committed than ever to achieve this new target without additional delays or push-outs.

It's just our opinion. I mean I know I can't speak for Airbus. But I think they're a little embarrassed by this and probably very upset about it. And my guess is they're going to be very, very, very committed to not push it out and push out that 75 per month target any further.

Let's go on to slide 23. What about the engines for the A320neo aircraft family? So as you know, Park is on the CFM LEAP-1A engine. We're not on the Pratt engine, Pratt PW1100G engine, we supply into that second item. We recovered that. And we have no content on the Pratt -- on the A320neo aircraft using the Pratt engines.

Third bullet item. According to the July '24 edition, this is late-breaking news, of Aero Engine News, the CFM LEAP-1A's market share of firm engine orders for A320neo family of aircraft at 63.5% as of May 31. At the delivery rate of 75 A320 family aircraft per month, I mean we believe -- I have lots of confidence Airbus will get there. We just don't know when. That 63.5% LEAP-1A market share translates into 1,143 LEAP-1A engines per year.

What's that worth to Park? Well, we have something of a juggernaut slide, you can look at that later on. Here's a juicy. There are currently are -- listen to this, 8,156 firm LEAP-1A engine orders. That's according to Aero Engine News, that's very current. So CFM, they're going to make all those engines. There's no doubt about it. They're going to get more orders as well. But they're going to make all those engines.

So what does that mean to Park? I mean, I don't have to estimate going back to the -- you look at the juggernaut slide, maybe $0.25 billion. So I don't know, does it really matter so much whether it's '26, '27, what the numbers will be '28. Those engines we produced. And from our perspective, that's a key thing. That's a thing that we feel so Park's so fortunate about that were also qualified on those engines.

Those engines are ours. Those engines will be produced. So we can get really hung up on what quarter it is. And we just don't know. We've been pretty open about that. And we can't tell you something we don't know, we can guess a little bit. But to us, the key thing is that those engines will be produced and produced with Park materials.

Let's go on to slide 24. The A321XLR, that's a variant of the A320neo aircraft family. Airbus expects that to enter service before the end of '24. And I just saw an article today, that purification is expected, I quote, coming days, end quote. That sounds pretty soon. This is a potentially a very important program for Park.

COMAC 919, another really important potential program for Park. This is a LEAP engine, but a different kind of LEAP engine, they call it LEAP-1C made by CFM. COMAC plans to achieve a production rate of 150 919 aircraft per year in '28. They've received over 1,500 orders for the 919 aircraft according to COMAC.

COMAC reported expanding its 919 aircraft production lines within -- get this, 330,000 square meter facility in Pudong, China, which is near Shanghai. So I guess one of the key executives at MRAS who I worked with quite closely, just visited that facility a couple of weeks ago and I met with him afterwards. Very, very impressed.

It's like what they do in China. I don't know if you have experience in China. They build a city just for a major program. That's what they do. That's what they're doing. And he was quite confident that they will get to this rate of 150 airplanes per year, which is 300 engines, of course, and maybe more. This guy is usually a little bit of a skeptic, not a pie-in-the-sky type.

So as you see, when we get to the juggernaut, we're changing the number of 300 from 200. That's engines, obviously, based upon 150 airplanes. That's a really -- this is a really big important potential program for Park.

So one other item I want to mention to you, I just saw this today, which came after a press time. Airbus has just upgraded their 20-year forecast. They're now expecting 42,430 airplane deliveries over the next 20 years. Single aisle, 33,510. Wide bodies, 8,920. Maybe you're right, maybe not, but no matter how you slice it, that's a whole lot of airplanes, a lot of airplanes.

You see, CFM driving the Airbus A320 aircraft family and COMAC 919 aircraft buses. What that means is that both these programs use that CFM -- the CFM LEAP engine, so it's really up to CFM to get their production rates up to support these two very exciting programs. Let's hope they do that.

Let's go on to slide 25, Boeing 777X, with the GE9X engines. Boeing expects that to be certified next year. Here's something brand new, the second check item, Boeing just received TIA-type inspection authorization for the 777X from the FAA.

That's a really -- that's a big deal and just conducted its first certification test flight for the 777X last Friday. That's breaking news. It's really encouraging because some people are concerned that Boeing has a serious issue that could bog down the 777X. We sure hope it doesn't because it's such an important program, potential program for Park.

To me, if I'm Boeing, I'm not -- I'm thinking I really want to do everything I can to get to focus on this program because this is their opportunity to be a leader for a long, long, long time. Even if they sort out the problems with the MAX, they're still not a leader, they're following the Airbus.

This is a program where they're a leader. There's nothing like it in terms of payload and range capability. And those are the two key criteria for airplane like this, nothing like it and nobody is even trying to develop anything like it. So Boeing has a chance to be a real leader for a long, long, long time with this aircraft. And it's a wonderful program for Park if it goes forward.

Let's go on to slide 26. Okay, we see this slide every quarter. What's new? Only $5 million of GE Aerospace jet program sales in Q1. So -- and we have told you when we did our Q4 forecast that before the storm, our number was $6.3 million. Why was that? Because that's all we booked. So we had $6.3 million booked, we only shipped $5 million. So $1.3 million that was booked did not get shipped because of the storm.

What are we forecasting for Q2? $6.25 million to $6.75 million and that's basically booked. So that doesn't mean it will happen. I'm just telling you it's booked -- we do need any more sales to get to those numbers. We're doing something a little new year.

We've given you a forecast for the year. We haven't done this for quite a while. Mark and I agonized over this over the weekend trying to figure out what to tell you. But we wanted to give you something for the year was $23 million, $26 million we felt. And we do this, remember, we didn't forecast, we're not giving you a low number that we can be and be the heroes.

We don't do that. We're saying to you, this is what we think will happen. The best of our ability, this is what we think a lot of issues, a lot of risk, a lot of uncertainties with us doing the best we can to tell you what we think will happen.

Let's go on to slide 27. So what we'll be talking about in terms of Q2 when you talked about Q1, so we didn't go through that. Q2, we're forecasting $15.9 million and to $16.4 million. We got about $16.8 million booked. But remember, at the end of the quarter, we always lose some at the end of the quarter because it's doesn't ship -- international shipment issues, supply chain, that kind of stuff.

And EBITDA, they forecasted $3 million, $3.3 million. A little low, but I just want you to know that $2.5 million of C2 B fabric sales in Q2, the sales of $2.5 million. Remember, that's where for large OEMs, we buy this fabric, and we sell to them pretty quickly at a small markup. So very low margins.

Now we actually -- when we actually use that product to make the material for them, then the margins are quite attractive. So just another thing, Mark, and I kind of agonized over the weekend and let's go on to slide 28.

Again, we're doing something we haven't done recently has given you the annual forecast. Let's look at the sales history first because I think it's pretty interesting. You just start in '17 going to '20, looks like almost $10 million per year. $31 million, [$28 million], over $40 million, $50 million or $60 million. $10 million per year.

An investor, which is we talked to the last week, asked me an interesting question, and it's funny nobody ever asked me before. What do you think -- where do you think now after the pandemic? Very interesting question because I said, well, I don't know. It looks like we were growing $10 million per year. I don't know why we stopped that.

So we'd probably be at $90 million to $100 million in 2024, I guess. If we just extrapolate, we never know where it's hypothetical. I can't go back and rewrite history. But then you could see in '21 the pandemic here, that in '22, '23, '24, we're still not getting out of pandemic malaise.

The pandemic is over, but we screwed things so badly with all the people we hired, creating these -- sorry, all the people we fired or not Park, the industry fired, laid off, let go of -- so we're really struggling to recover because of all these supply chain issues that we created by maybe not responding, reacting to the pandemic in the best way.

Now it's not a criticism because time the pandemic was so frightening, so scary that we can't really blame people for reacting the way they did. But with a bit of high sign of saying, it was probably not the best reaction.

So we actually -- we're looking to provide you with a three-year forecast when we announced -- in this presentation. But with the push-out of the Airbus, the Airbus target of 75 airplanes per month. And also, supply chain issues being elevated, we chickened out on that and we cited that gives you a forecast for '25, $60 million to $65 million, $13 million and $15 million in EBITDA.

And again, we're taking some risk here, but there's so much uncertainty. But again, what we're doing is doing the best we can to tell you what we think will happen, not giving you a low number that we could be and be heroes and wonderful everything else. Important things at the bottom, supply chain limitations affecting aerospace industry. Yeah, we just talked about that when we look at the top-line progression.

Next one, ramping up cost for the juggernaut. That's not going to affect top line, but it affects bottom line, because we ramp up the cost before the sales. And honestly, that makes our company less profitable on a temporary basis.

Let's go on to slide 29. Okay. Our GE Aerospace jet engine programs, revenue outlook, the juggernaut, we've been talking about this for several quarters. What's the timing for the outlook? We're not sure, but the juggernaut is still coming. It can't be stopped, and we better be ready. So we just spent a lot of time talking about what quarters going to hit, and we just don't know. But I will tell you one thing. In my opinion, Park is so, so, so fortunate to be sole source qualified in these wonderful programs, these wonderful programs.

So when will they go to the moon? We don't know. But these programs are very -- these are the programs you want to be on and we're so very fortunate and lucky to be on these programs. So maybe not in other programs that we won't mention, but you probably know what I'm talking about.

Let's go on to slide 30. Here is the juggernaut. Just a couple of changes here. Well, a couple of things I want to highlight. First of all, A320neo. So we look at using that 1,080 number. That means that's using 60% market share for LEAP engine, 75 airplanes per month. Just do the math, you can do in your head, that was 900 airplanes a year times two engines, that's 1,800, times 0.6. That's meaning 60% market share. That's your 1,080.

Now earlier in the presentation, we said, well, it's really not 60%, it's 63.5%, and that translates to 1,143. But we're going to use 1,080 just so we don't have to update and revise this page just like every time we do a presentation. Just every month, that percentage that market share percentage is going to change.

Somebody made a comment that I was trying to be conservative. No, not really. Just that we didn't want to go through this process of every recorder, having to update change the assumption in the slide because every month, the market share that we get from Aero Engine News is going to be different. I noticed also the C919, we had 200 units, now 300 units.

On the ARJ21, we didn't change the 72, but I just want to point out that we saw a recent report that COMAC delivered 35 airplanes per year in both '22 and '23. That's obviously what, 70 engines, and that does include spares. So we may move that number up at some point.

We're not doing that now. Okay? And then if we go on to slide 31, our Park maintenance crew. Thank you Park maintenance group for leading this storm recovery effort and cleanup effort. Great guys.

You can probably figure it out just looking at them. But I also say this is not totally representative because as we mentioned earlier, it's really all the hourly people that worked on the storm recovery and clean up. Okay, operator, that concludes the review of the presentation. If there are any questions, we'd be happy to take them.

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