PJT Partners Inc (PJT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the PJT Partners third quarter and nine months 2025 earnings conference call. Joining the earnings conference call today is Paul Taubman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Helen Meates, Chief Financial Officer.

早安.歡迎參加 PJT Partners 第三季及 2025 年頭九個月的業績電話會議。今天參加獲利電話會議的有董事長兼執行長保羅·陶布曼，以及財務長海倫·米茨。

During the course of this conference call, management may make a number of forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, and there are important factors that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are described in the Risk Factors section contained in PJT Partners' 2024 Form 10-K, which is available on PJT Partners' website at pjtpartners.com. The company assumes no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議期間，管理階層可能會發表一些前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，並且存在一些重要因素，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中指出的結果有重大差異。這些因素在PJT Partners 2024年10-K表格的「風險因素」部分中有詳細描述，該表格可在PJT Partners網站pjtpartners.com上查閱。本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Also, the presentation made today contains non-GAAP financial measures, which the company believes are meaningful in evaluating the company's performance. For detailed disclosures on these non-GAAP metrics and their GAAP reconciliations, please refer to the financial data contained within the press release the firm issued this morning, also available on the firm's website.

此外，今天發布的簡報包含非GAAP財務指標，公司認為這些指標對於評估公司績效具有重要意義。有關這些非GAAP指標及其GAAP調節的詳細披露，請參閱公司今天早上發布的新聞稿中包含的財務數據，該新聞稿也可在公司網站上找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul Taubman.

接下來，我將把電話交給保羅·陶布曼。

Good morning. Thank you all for joining us today. This morning, we reported record results, revenue, adjusted pretax income, and adjusted EPS, all reaching record highs for both the three- and nine-month periods.

早安.感謝各位今天蒞臨。今天上午，我們公佈了創紀錄的業績，收入、調整後稅前利潤和調整後每股收益均創歷史新高，包括三個月和九個月期間的業績。

Third quarter revenue was $447 million, up 37%. Adjusted pretax income was $94 million, up 86%. And adjusted EPS was $1.85, up 99% from year ago levels. For the nine months, revenues increased 16% to $1.18 billion. Adjusted pretax income increased 34% and adjusted EPS increased 43% from year ago levels.

第三季營收為 4.47 億美元，成長 37%。調整後稅前收入為 9,400 萬美元，成長 86%。調整後的每股收益為 1.85 美元，比去年同期成長 99%。前九個月，營收成長16%，達到11.8億美元。調整後的稅前利潤較上年同期成長 34%，經調整後的每股盈餘較上年同期成長 43%。

Since our last earnings call, we have seen further improvements in the macro environment. Equity prices are near record highs, volatility across equities and credit near historic lows, debt issuance is strong, and the IPO market has reopened. This favorable capital markets backdrop has been an important catalyst in the M&A recovery. Greater clarity on regulatory outcomes as well as increased CEO confidence has further amplified deal-making momentum with many companies revisiting their strategic wish list.

自上次財報電話會議以來，宏觀環境已進一步改善。股票價格接近歷史高位，股票和信貸的波動性接近歷史低位，債務發行強勁，IPO市場已重新開放。有利的資本市場環境是併購復甦的重要催化劑。監管結果更加明朗，執行長信心增強，進一步推動了交易勢頭，許多公司正在重新審視其戰略願望清單。

That said, we still operate in a world fraught with risk, continuing geopolitical uncertainty, a weakening labor market, stubbornly high interest rates, tariff dislocations, coupled with concerns of an AI bubble have the potential to derail this pickup in activity levels. While we remain optimistic about the near to intermediate operating environment, it is a tempered optimism when balanced against these risks.

儘管如此，我們仍然身處一個充滿風險的世界，持續的地緣政治不確定性、疲軟的勞動市場、居高不下的利率、關稅混亂，再加上對人工智慧泡沫的擔憂，都有可能阻礙經濟活動的復甦。儘管我們對近期至中期經營環境仍持樂觀態度，但考慮到這些風險，這種樂觀態度還是需要謹慎對待的。

After Helen takes you through our financial results, I will review our business performance and outlook in greater detail. Helen?

在 Helen 向大家介紹完我們的財務表現後，我將更詳細地回顧我們的業務表現和前景。海倫？

Thank you, Paul. Good morning. Beginning with revenues. Total revenues for the third quarter were $447 million, up 37% year-over-year. And for the nine months ended September 30, total revenues were $1.179 billion, up 16% year-over-year.

謝謝你，保羅。早安.首先從收入說起。第三季總營收為 4.47 億美元，年增 37%。截至 9 月 30 日的九個月，總收入為 11.79 億美元，年增 16%。

Revenue growth for the third quarter and first nine months was primarily driven by strategic advisory, which was up significantly for both periods. Restructuring revenues rose slightly in the third quarter and first nine months, while PJT Park Hill revenues were flat in the third quarter and down modestly for the first nine months.

第三季和前九個月的營收成長主要得益於策略諮詢業務，這兩個時期該業務均實現了顯著成長。重組業務收入在第三季和前九個月略有成長，而 PJT Park Hill 的營收在第三季持平，前九個月略有下降。

Turning to expenses. Consistent with prior quarters, we presented the expenses with certain non-GAAP adjustments, which are more fully described in our 8-K. First, adjusted compensation expense. We accrued compensation expense at 67.5% of revenues for the first nine months of the year compared to 69.5% for the same period last year. This ratio represents our current best estimate for the full year 2025.

接下來談談費用。與前幾季一致，我們在列報費用時加入了一些非GAAP調整，這些調整在我們的8-K文件中進行了更詳細的描述。首先，調整後的薪資費用。今年前九個月，我們的薪資支出佔營收的 67.5%，去年同期為 69.5%。該比例代表我們目前對 2025 年全年的最佳預測。

Turning to adjusted non-compensation expense. Total adjusted non-compensation expense was $51 million in the third quarter, up 5% year-over-year and $153 million for the first nine months, up 10.5% year-over-year. As a percentage of revenues, 11.5% in the third quarter and 13% in the first nine months.

接下來討論調整後的非薪酬支出。第三季調整後的非薪資支出總額為 5,100 萬美元，較去年同期成長 5%；前九個月調整後的非薪資支出總額為 1.53 億美元，較去年同期成長 10.5%。佔收入的百分比，第三季為 11.5%，前九個月為 13%。

The main drivers of the expense increase for the first nine months of the year were higher occupancy costs, which are up 19% year-over-year, reflecting the expansion of our New York and London offices and higher travel and related expenses, which are up 25% year-over-year, primarily reflecting higher levels of business-related travel. Overall, for the full year, we continue to expect that our non-comp expense will grow at around 12%, a similar rate to our 2024 growth rate.

今年前九個月支出增加的主要原因是辦公場所租金上漲（同比增長 19%），這反映了我們在紐約和倫敦的辦公室擴張；以及差旅及相關費用上漲（同比增長 25%），這主要反映了商務旅行水平的提高。總體而言，我們預計全年非補償性支出將成長約 12%，與我們 2024 年的成長率相似。

Turning to adjusted pretax income. We reported adjusted pretax income of $94 million in the third quarter and $230 million for the first nine months. Our adjusted pretax margin for the third quarter was 21% compared with 15.5% for the same period last year and 19.5% for the first nine months compared with 16.9% for the same period last year. The provision for taxes, as with prior years, we presented our results as if all partnership units have been converted to shares and that all of our income was taxed at a corporate tax rate.

接下來是調整後的稅前收入。第三季調整後稅前收入為 9,400 萬美元，前九個月調整後稅前收入為 2.3 億美元。第三季調整後的稅前利潤率為 21%，去年同期為 15.5%；前九個月調整後的稅前利潤率為 19.5%，去年同期為 16.9%。與往年一樣，我們在提稅準備時，假設所有合夥單位都已轉換為股份，並且所有收入都按公司稅率徵稅。

Our effective tax rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 15.5%, which now represents our current expectation for the full year. This rate is slightly below our previous full year estimate of 16.5%. As a result, the effective tax rate for the third quarter was 14%.

2025 年前九個月的實際稅率為 15.5%，這代表了我們對全年的預期。這一比率略低於我們先前對全年16.5%的預估。因此，第三季的實際稅率為 14%。

The reduction in the full year rate is primarily due to an updated estimate of our income allocation across state and foreign entities. Earnings per share. Our adjusted if converted earnings were $1.85 per share for the third quarter, up 99% and $4.43 per share for the first nine months, up 43% from the same period last year.

全年稅率的降低主要是由於我們對州內和外國實體收入分配的估算進行了更新。每股收益。如果以實際收益計算，我們第三季的調整後每股收益為 1.85 美元，年增 99%；前九個月的調整後每股收益為 4.43 美元，年成長 43%。

For the quarter, our weighted average share count was 43.8 million shares, down 2% versus a year ago. And during the third quarter, we repurchased the equivalent of approximately 186,000 shares primarily through exchanges.

本季度，我們的加權平均股份數量為 4,380 萬股，比去年同期下降 2%。第三季度，我們主要透過交易所回購了約 186,000 股股票。

Our repurchases in the first nine months of the year totaled approximately 2.3 million shares. We are in receipt of exchange notices for an additional 115,000 partnership units and subject to a Board approval, we intend to exchange these units for cash.

今年前九個月，我們的回購總額約 230 萬股。我們已收到關於額外 115,000 個合夥單位的交換通知，在獲得董事會批准後，我們打算將這些單位兌換成現金。

On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $520 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and $558 million in net working capital, and we have no funded debt outstanding.

從資產負債表來看，本季末我們擁有 5.2 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資，以及 5.58 億美元的淨營運資本，且我們沒有未償還的已融資債務。

Finally, the Board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share.

最後，董事會批准了每股0.25美元的季度股息。

Back to Paul.

回到保羅身上。

Thank you, Helen. Beginning with restructuring. Notwithstanding favorable economic and capital markets conditions, demand for liability management and restructuring activity remains high. Even with a relatively benign credit environment, our market-leading restructuring team continues to deliver strong performance with third quarter and year-to-date revenues at record levels.

謝謝你，海倫。首先從重組開始。儘管經濟和資本市場狀況良好，但對負債管理和重組活動的需求仍然很高。即使在信貸環境相對寬鬆的情況下，我們市場領先的重組團隊仍然保持強勁的業績，第三季和年初至今的營收均創歷史新高。

At the same time, certain corners of the economy are feeling the weight of relatively high interest rates, dislocations caused by higher tariffs, disruptions resulting from accelerating technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. While these headwinds may not yet be broad-based, they are being felt in certain industries, including technology, media, healthcare, automotive and consumer.

同時，經濟的某些領域正感受到相對較高的利率、更高的關稅造成的混亂、加速的技術創新和不斷變化的消費者偏好所帶來的衝擊。雖然這些不利因素可能尚未普遍存在，但某些產業，包括科技、媒體、醫療保健、汽車和消費品產業，已經感受到了這些不利因素的影響。

For the current year, we expect our restructuring results to meet or exceed last year's record results. Looking ahead, we expect our restructuring bankers to remain highly active as they continue to address liability management opportunities resulting from this concentrated stress.

我們預計今年的重組業績將達到或超過去年的紀錄水準。展望未來，我們預期重組銀行家將繼續保持高度活躍，因為他們將繼續應對這種集中壓力帶來的負債管理機會。

Turning to PJT Park Hill. The primary fundraising environment continues to be challenged by historically low levels of capital return, coupled with a significant increase in the number of managers seeking to raise capital. This, in turn, has elongated fundraising timelines and pressured the quantum of capital raised.

轉向PJT公園山。主要融資環境持續面臨挑戰，一方面是資本報酬率處於歷史低位，另一方面是尋求融資的基金經理人數量大幅增加。反過來，這延長了籌款時間，並限制了籌款規模。

As GPs and LPs seek additional paths to liquidity, the same forces that have dampened primary fundraising activity have also served to catalyze continuation fund activity. And more capital has flown into the space as investors have come to better appreciate the attractive return profiles associated with secondary products, creating a virtuous cycle.

隨著普通合夥人和有限合夥人尋求其他流動性途徑，抑制一級基金募資活動的相同因素也促進了延續基金的活動。隨著投資者越來越認識到二級市場產品具有吸引力的回報特徵，更多的資本湧入該領域，從而形成良性循環。

For PJT Park Hill, third quarter revenues were comparable to a year ago with strength in private capital solutions offsetting lower primary revenues. For the full year, we expect overall PJT Park Hill revenues substantially in line with last year's record levels.

對於 PJT Park Hill 而言，第三季營收與去年同期持平，私募資本解決方案的強勁表現抵消了主要營收的下降。我們預計 PJT Park Hill 全年總收入將與去年創紀錄的水平基本持平。

Turning to strategic advisory. Many of the pieces necessary for a meaningful rebound in M&A activity have fallen into place as the year has progressed. However, the recovery has been uneven. While we have seen a market increase in larger M&A transactions, we have not yet seen an increase in the overall number of transactions. Even though the average deal size is up almost 40%, the aggregate number of transactions has actually declined.

轉向策略諮詢。隨著時間的推移，併購活動出現實質反彈所需的許多因素已經到位。然而，復甦進程並不均衡。雖然我們看到大型併購交易的市場有所成長，但我們尚未看到交易總數的成長。儘管平均交易規模增加了近 40%，但交易總數實際上卻下降了。

For the three- and nine-month periods, our strategic advisory business delivered record revenues substantially above prior year levels. Our mandate count has increased meaningfully from a year ago and now stands at record levels. Overall, our strategic advisory business remains on track to deliver another record year as the significant investments we have made over an extended period of time continue to bear fruit.

在三個月和九個月的時間段內，我們的策略諮詢業務實現了創紀錄的收入，遠超過去年同期水準。我們的授權數量比一年前有了顯著成長，目前已達到歷史最高水準。整體而言，我們的策略諮詢業務仍有望再創佳績，因為我們長期以來的重大投資正在持續取得成效。

On the talent front, we continue to add talent as we invest in our strategic advisory franchise and the firm more broadly. As a result of our active recruiting efforts, our headcount overall has increased 7% from a year ago and four partners joined our strategic advisory franchise in the third quarter.

在人才方面，我們不斷增加人才，增加對策略諮詢業務和公司整體發展的投入。由於我們積極進行招募工作，我們的員工總數比一年前增加了 7%，第三季有四位合夥人加入我們的策略諮詢團隊。

A decade ago, we set out to build a next-generation investment bank. We envisaged a firm where complex challenges would meet creative solutions, where top professionals would build their careers and where success would be defined by excellence, impact and integrity. Ten years in, our firm has grown substantially and so too have our aspirations. Today's mission is clear, to be the world's best investment bank.

十年前，我們著手打造新一代投資銀行。我們設想，在這樣的公司裡，複雜的挑戰將遇到創造性的解決方案，頂尖的專業人士將在這裡發展他們的職業生涯，而成功將由卓越、影響力和誠信來定義。十年過去了，我們公司發展壯大，我們的抱負也隨之擴大。今天我們的目標很明確，那就是成為世界上最好的投資銀行。

As we celebrate our 10th anniversary, we would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the dedication of our colleagues and the trust and support of our clients. And to our shareholders, thank you for your partnership. We continue to see tremendous opportunity ahead, and we remain determined to capitalize on our enormous potential. As before, we remain confident in our near, intermediate and long-term growth prospects.

在公司成立十週年之際，我們想藉此機會感謝同事們的奉獻精神以及客戶的信任與支持。感謝各位股東的合作。我們仍然看到未來蘊藏著巨大的機遇，我們也決心充分發揮我們的巨大潛力。和以往一樣，我們對近期、中期和長期的成長前景依然充滿信心。

And with that, we will now take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Devin Ryan, Citizens.

（操作員說明）德文·瑞安，市民。

Congratulations on 10 years.

祝賀成立十週年。

Thank you. Good to speak, Devin.

謝謝。很高興和你說話，德文。

Yes, absolutely. So I want to start, Paul, on the restructuring outlook and appreciate the framing that you gave and still sounds like you expect a strong kind of backdrop there. We've been hearing somewhat mixed trends, I would say, through earnings.

是的，絕對的。保羅，我想先談談重組前景，我很欣賞你給的框架，聽起來你仍然期待著一個強而有力的背景。從獲利情況來看，我們聽到的趨勢有些喜憂參半。

And so, I just want to get a sense of how you're thinking about PJT specific relative to the broader macro backdrop for trends because you guys have a leading practice and so potentially outperform the industry in different environments. So do you still see the environment being very good? Or is this more just about PJT maintaining or even gaining share as your kind of always going to be active in that business?

所以，我只是想了解一下您是如何看待 PJT 的具體情況，以及它與更廣泛的宏觀趨勢背景之間的關係，因為您擁有領先的實踐經驗，因此有可能在不同的環境下超越行業平均水平。所以你還是認為環境非常好嗎？或者，這更多的是關於 PJT 如何維持甚至擴大市場份額，因為你始終會在該行業保持活躍？

Well, it's always hard to deconstruct the market versus your position in the market precisely. But we don't see any real diminution in restructuring activity. We just don't see it. So we're operating at elevated levels relative to historic levels. But as I pointed out repeatedly, for most of that history, we're looking back at a baseline where the macroeconomic environment was far more constructive than it is today and where money was nearly free, and interest rates were nearly 0. We're also looking at a baseline where the quantum of debt outstanding was meaningfully less. And we're also looking at a baseline where there was not as much disruption, innovation and what we refer to as concentrated stress.

嗯，要準確地將市場與你在市場中的地位區分開來總是很困難的。但我們並未看到重組活動出現任何實質減少。我們就是看不到。所以，我們目前的營運水準高於歷史水準。但正如我一再指出的那樣，在大部分歷史時期，我們回顧的基準線是宏觀經濟環境比今天好得多，資金幾乎是免費的，利率接近 0。我們也檢視了一個基準線，在這個基準線下，未償債務的金額要少得多。我們同時也在檢視一個基準線，在這個基準線上，並沒有那麼多的顛覆、創新以及我們所說的集中壓力。

So in an overall accommodative environment, you can have a higher baseline of restructuring activity. We've talked about this repeatedly. We continue to see that. Now as it relates to our practice, the growth pillars beyond what the overall market conditions are, continued penetration of sponsor clients, which will give us a broader addressable market. Second is continued growth outside the United States as we build out local presence around the globe. And the third is, as we continue to build out our industry footprint, we have more relationships with which to leverage. So I don't spend a lot of time talking about or thinking about the exact interplay of the 2. But as we look at our activity levels, they remain elevated, and we expect them to be elevated for the foreseeable future. And I do think there's a call option on a meaningful shock to the system because we're not experiencing any of that today. I'm not predicting it, but none of this assumes any real deviation from the current environment.

因此，在整體上較為寬鬆的環境下，重組活動的基線水平可能會更高。我們已經多次討論過這個問題。我們持續看到這種情況。就我們的實踐而言，除了整體市場狀況之外，成長支柱還包括贊助商客戶的持續滲透，這將使我們擁有更廣泛的潛在市場。其次，隨著我們在全球建立在地化業務，美國以外的地區也將持續成長。第三，隨著我們不斷擴大產業影響力，我們將擁有更多可以利用的人脈關係。所以我不會花太多時間去談論或思考這兩者之間的確切相互作用。但從我們的活動水平來看，它們仍然很高，而且我們預計在可預見的未來，它們仍將保持在高位。而且我認為，未來可能會出現對系統造成重大衝擊的情況，因為我們今天還沒有感受到任何此類衝擊。我並不是預測未來，但這一切都沒有假設當前環境會有任何真正的偏差。

I appreciate all that color, Paul. And then just for my follow-up, when I look at partner productivity, I appreciate it's kind of a crude number from the outside. But on a blended basis, it looks like you're on track for a record year productivity on my numbers at least. And I appreciate some of that's very strong restructuring and then you have strategic advisory ramping pretty materially as those partners on the platform mature. So I'd love to just get an update on how you think about the productivity potential of partners from here, particularly as strategic advisory still feels like the environment is getting better, but then also the bankers on the platform are maturing as they've been doing. And I guess in that question, just love to hear about how you think about what is a reasonable number of kind of revenue per partner for strategic advisory when you're hiring somebody externally? Are you targeting $15 million to $20 million? Or is there a number? Just any more color you can give on how you're thinking about the potential from here given that you're going to have it looks like a record year there.

保羅，我喜歡這些色彩。然後，我想補充一點，當我查看合作夥伴的生產力時，我意識到從外部來看，這只是一個粗略的數字。但綜合來看，至少根據我的數據，你們今年的生產力有望創下歷史新高。我欣賞其中一些強有力的重組，隨著平台上的合作夥伴日趨成熟，策略諮詢服務也得到了相當大的提升。所以我很想了解您對合作夥伴的生產力潛力有何看法，特別是考慮到戰略諮詢領域的環境似乎正在好轉，而且平台上的銀行家們也像以往一樣日益成熟。我想透過這個問題，了解您在聘請外部策略顧問時，對於每位合作夥伴的合理收入金額有何看法？你的目標是籌集1500萬美元到2000萬美元嗎？或者說，有一個數字嗎？鑑於今年看起來會是創紀錄的一年，您能否再多談談您對未來發展潛力的看法？

Yes. I never think about a number. I never talk about a number. I don't believe in a number. What I believe is if you hire difference makers, you ultimately make a difference in your financial results to the positive. I really do. And I think it's so hard to come up with a number because you need to assume an environment. You need to assume how active that sector or that product is at that time. You need to look at what else has been built out at the firm, which creates either tailwind or headwind for those individuals. And then you need to ask yourself, are you looking in year 2, year 4, year 6, year 8. So we don't believe in that. And as far as the number, in a perverse way, I'd love nothing more than to take the number down.

是的。我從不考慮數字。我從不談論數字。我不相信數字。我認為，如果你聘用能夠帶來改變的人，最終會對你的財務表現產生正面的影響。我真的這麼認為。我認為很難給出一個確切的數字，因為你需要假設一個環境。你需要預估一下當時該產業或產品的活躍程度。你需要看看公司還有哪些發展，這些發展會為個人帶來順境還是逆境。然後你需要問自己，你是在看二年級、四年級、六年級還是八年級的內容。所以我們不相信這種說法。至於這個數字，從某種扭曲的角度來看，我最希望的就是把它降下來。

I mean, if tomorrow, we could find 10 incredible partners to add to the platform on day 1, by definition, our so-called partner productivity would go down because those same revenues would be divided by an extra 10 individuals. So it's a number that we don't spend a lot of time with, but we have great confidence that what we're building is highly additive and accretive to our overall financial results and to our brand and to the service of our clients. And that's how we think about it. And I think it's more of the relative construct. And if you ask me, do I think we've hit maximum levels, I'd say no, not close because there are a lot of partially built systems in our franchise, whether it's just beginning to put our toe in the water in a geography or just beginning the journey to build out an industry group or we have that, but we don't yet have full recognition or we have the recognition from the clients, but it hasn't yet translated into revenue. So I think we feel very good about the direction of travel, but I don't spend a lot of time thinking about it as a number.

我的意思是，如果明天我們能找到 10 位優秀的合作夥伴在第一天就加入平台，那麼根據定義，我們所謂的合作夥伴生產力就會下降，因為同樣的收入要分給另外 10 個人。所以，我們不會花太多時間在這個數字上，但我們非常有信心，我們正在建立的東西會大大提升我們的整體財務表現、品牌以及客戶服務水準。我們就是這麼想的。我認為這更多的是一種相對的概念。如果你問我，我們是否已經達到最高水平，我會說沒有，還差得很遠，因為我們的特許經營體系中有很多系統尚未完全建成，無論是剛開始在某個地區試水，還是剛剛開始建立某個行業集團，或者我們已經有了這些，但我們還沒有獲得充分的認可，或者我們已經獲得了客戶的認可，但還沒有轉化為收入。所以我覺得我們對前進的方向非常滿意，但我不會花太多時間去思考它的具體數字。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

James Yaro，高盛集團。

Paul, I'd love to just get your perspective on the impact of the government shutdown on the business. Do you expect this to have an impact on the fourth quarter? But really more importantly, how are you thinking about the impact going forward? Is there anything beyond the temporary impact?

保羅，我很想聽聽你對政府停擺對企業的影響有何看法。你認為這會對第四季產生影響嗎？但更重要的是，您如何看待這件事對未來的影響？除了暫時的影響之外，還有其他影響嗎？

Look, I think it has real implications to a lot of individuals in this country who are suffering because of the shutdown, but I don't think that it really affects our business in a meaningful way. It creates some complexities and complications and maybe some timing issues, but I think those pale in comparison to other implications. What I worry about more is ultimately what does this do to the broader macroeconomic environment in the country, which is really a function of how long does this shutdown continue, which workers aren't paid for how long, what resolution do we end up with and what are those implications? I think it's the macro implications that matter more. And the reality is no one has answers to that. So we're all watching and waiting. I think that's the bigger question is what, if anything, does this do to overall economic output and consumer confidence and business confidence.

我認為，疫情封鎖對這個國家許多遭受苦難的人們來說確實有實際影響，但我認為這對我們的業務並沒有產生實質的影響。這會帶來一些複雜性、麻煩，也可能會帶來一些時間上的問題，但我認為與其它影響相比，這些問題都顯得微不足道。我更擔心的是，這最終會對該國的整體宏觀經濟環境造成什麼影響，這實際上取決於停工持續多久，哪些工人會停薪多久，我們最終會得到什麼樣的解決方案，以及這些解決方案會帶來什麼影響？我認為宏觀層面的影響更為重要。而現實是，沒有人能回答這個問題。所以我們都在觀望。我認為更重要的問題是，這會對整體經濟產出、消費者信心和企業信心產生什麼影響（如果有的話）。

That's super clear. Just maybe turning to the primary fundraising business. I'd love to just get your perspective on the ability for that to continue to improve. Obviously, it was down for a couple of years there, and you've seen a nice bounce back there over the past few quarters. So is this sustainable? And how are you thinking about the outlook for that business?

非常清楚。或許應該轉向主要的募款業務。我很想聽聽您對這項能力能否持續提升的看法。顯然，那裡的經濟曾經低迷了幾年，但在過去幾個季度裡，你已經看到經濟出現了不錯的反彈。那麼，這種做法可持續嗎？您如何看待這家企業的前景？

Well, there's good news, bad news and then back to good news. So the good news is it's getting better. The bad news is, as it gets better, everyone is going to want to come to tap the market because they've been on the sidelines. So that's going to make it a crowded trade. And then the good news from the bad news is in a crowded market, they're going to want the best fundraising team, and that's going to play to our strength. So I think overall, it's positive, but it's like everything else, it's never 100% positive. There are some puts and takes there.

嗯，先有好消息，再有壞消息，然後又回到好消息。好消息是情況正在好轉。壞消息是，隨著情況好轉，每個人都想來入市，因為他們之前一直在觀望。所以這將會是一筆競爭激烈的交易。壞消息中也有好消息：在競爭激烈的市場中，他們會想要最好的募款團隊，而這正是我們的優勢所在。所以我覺得整體來說是正面的，但就像其他事情一樣，它永遠不可能百分之百正面。這裡面有一些出價和收益。

Brennan Hawken, Bank of Montreal.

布倫南·霍肯，蒙特利爾銀行。

I was hoping that you could -- I know, Paul, I heard you sort of loud and clear that the 67.5% is your expectation for the full year. But taking a step back, what's the best way we should be thinking about operating leverage, right, and the path for pretax margin as you continue to see this strong revenue growth as you see the -- as the investments that you've made in strategic advisory begin to bear fruit. How should we be thinking about that either in the year-end and then, of course, into the coming years?

我希望你能——我知道，保羅，我聽得很清楚，你對全年的期望是 67.5%。但退一步講，我們應該如何更好地思考經營槓桿，以及隨著收入持續強勁增長，隨著我們在戰略諮詢方面的投資開始取得成效，稅前利潤率的發展路徑。我們應該如何看待這個問題，無論是在年底還是展望未來幾年？

Well, I think into year-end, we've given you our best estimate for this year. You talked about operating leverage, which I appreciate the question because to me, operating leverage is what's the pretax margin because ultimately, that's what drives shareholder value. And if you look at our operating margin for this year and you look at it in the historical context of where we've operated, I suspect that if you ex-out 2020 and 2021 when we lived in this surreal world where there was no travel, there was no entertainment, there was no discretionary spend and margins were overly inflated. I think our margins this year are going to be at the high end of anything we've produced in our 10-year journey as a public company.

嗯，我認為到年底，我們已經給出了今年的最佳預估。您談到了經營槓桿，我很感謝這個問題，因為在我看來，經營槓桿就是稅前利潤率，因為歸根究底，這才是股東價值的驅動因素。如果你看一下我們今年的營業利潤率，並將其放在我們過去經營的歷史背景下進行考察，我懷疑，如果排除 2020 年和 2021 年，當時我們生活在一個超現實的世界裡，沒有旅行，沒有娛樂，沒有可自由支配的支出，利潤率被過高地誇大了。我認為我們今年的利潤率將達到我們作為上市公司 10 年來的最高水平。

So we're quite proud of that and we are focused on it. We don't like to focus on any one individual component of that because, a, there's a lot of interrelationships between all of these line items; and b, you're trying not to manage the firm for the here and now, you're trying to manage it for the long-term. But if you're asking me, do we think that there's further margin improvement along the journey, I think the answer is yes. And I just don't want to lose sight of the fact that while we may be running with comp to revenue margins that are higher than our historical levels have been, we also have run this firm at, I think, the lowest non-comp to revenue margins that we've had as a firm. And if you take all of that together, the overall output is quite attractive.

所以，我們為此感到非常自豪，我們正專注於此。我們不喜歡關注其中任何一個單獨的組成部分，因為，a，所有這些項目之間有很多相互關係；b，你不是在為眼下管理公司，而是在為長遠發展管理公司。但如果你問我，我們是否認為在過程中利潤率還有進一步提高的空間，我認為答案是肯定的。我不想忽略這樣一個事實：雖然我們目前的同店銷售利潤率可能高於歷史水平，但我認為，我們公司的非同店銷售利潤率也是公司歷史上最低的。綜合所有因素來看，整體結果相當吸引人。

But to answer your question, there's more upside from here, and we're going to get at it. But exactly how and when, I don't know. But when I look at it over 10 years, this is going to be ex those two aberrational years, I think our best operating margin year in a decade.

但要回答你的問題，未來還有更大的發展空間，我們接下來會努力實現這一點。但具體如何操作以及何時進行，我並不清楚。但從 10 年的角度來看，除去那兩年的異常情況，我認為這將是我們十年來營業利潤率最高的一年。

And then when you think about the operating margin improvement that you guys are likely to generate here in 2025, is that a good way to be thinking about a path forward sort of you never want to anchor overly on one particular year, obviously, because things will move around. But is that a decent way to be thinking about it going forward? Or are there other factors -- what other factors should we consider?

然後，當你思考你們在 2025 年可能實現的營業利潤率提升時，這是否是一個思考未來發展道路的好方法？顯然，你永遠不應該過於執著於某一年，因為情況會改變。但從長遠來看，這是合理的思考方式嗎？或是有其他因素嗎？我們應該考慮哪些其他因素？

Well, look, I think as a general matter, there's -- we believe in operating leverage in the business. Let's just start there. We also believe in disciplined cost, but not an obsession with cost at the expense of long-term value-enhancing growth. So that's the mix. And since we continue to believe that we should be able to grow our top line faster than our expenses, we think that there's more operating margin to be had. But in any given quarter, any given year, you're buffeted by a lot of very specific things, which makes it very difficult to manage to a number in the short-term, which is why I like to sort of step back a little bit. And what I just suggested is if you look back at our journey as a public company over 10 years and you take out the two fantasy years where it just wasn't a normalized world because no one was traveling, no one was entertaining, there were no conferences. There was no travel expense. There was no entertaining expense.

嗯，你看，我認為總的來說，我們相信企業中的經營槓桿作用。我們就從這裡開始吧。我們也相信成本控制，但不會為了追求成本而犧牲長期價值提升的成長。這就是混合比例。而且，由於我們仍然相信我們的營收成長速度應該超過支出成長速度，我們認為還有更大的營業利潤空間。但是，在任何一個季度、任何一年，你都會受到很多非常具體的事情的影響，這使得在短期內很難控制一個數字，這就是為什麼我喜歡稍微退後一步的原因。我剛才建議的是，回顧我們作為一家上市公司的 10 年歷程，去掉那兩年虛幻的時光——那兩年世界並不正常，因為沒有人旅行，沒有人娛樂，也沒有會議。沒有差旅費用。沒有招待費用。

If you just strip those out, we're sitting here today saying we're still seeing the fruits of our investment, and we're going to post on a relative basis, our best or near best operating margin. So that, to me, is just a proof point that, a, there's operating leverage in the business; and b, we can get at that operating leverage.

如果把這些因素剔除掉，我們今天坐在這裡說，我們仍然看到了投資的成果，我們將公佈相對而言最佳或接近最佳的營業利潤率。所以，對我來說，這只是一個證明點，一是企業中存在經營槓桿；二是我們可以得到這種經營槓桿。

Brendan O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

Brendan O'Brien，Wolfe Research。

To start, I just wanted to touch on the dynamic you flagged, which is the divergence of deal value versus deal count, which is something we've been keeping an eye on ourselves. The drivers of the increase in the larger activity is apparent around derive and things of that nature. But I just wanted to get a sense as to what you think is behind the lack of breadth and activity so far and what could maybe drive an improvement in that dynamic over the next coming year?

首先，我想談談您指出的動態，即交易價值與交易數量的差異，這也是我們一直在關注的問題。推動更大範圍活動增加的因素在衍生性商品和類似事物方面顯而易見。但我只是想了解一下，您認為目前缺乏廣度和活躍度的原因是什麼，以及在未來一年裡，什麼因素可能會推動這種局面有所改善？

Look, I think there's -- some of this is there's -- you have to really deconstruct the market. So I'll just give you two. I don't want to turn this into three, I'll give you two thoughts.

你看，我認為——其中一些是——你必須真正解構市場。所以我只給你兩個。我不想把這件事變成三件事，我只說兩點想法。

Number one, we clearly are dealing in a more favorable regulatory environment. Where is that going to create more momentum? It's going to be in the larger transactions. And if you're dealing with sub-billion dollar deals or $1 billion to $5 billion sizes and everything, but it's probably a pretty good correlation that that's not where there's regulatory complexity. So it should be no surprise that as you're dealing with a more pro-growth, pro-business administration, you would see more of a skew to the high end, and that gets picked up in dollar values, doesn't get picked up in number of transactions as much.

第一，我們顯然身處在一個更有利的監管環境。這又將如何產生更大的勢頭呢？這將在大額交易中反映出來。如果你處理的是低於10億美元的交易，或是10億到50億美元的交易，那麼很可能監管的複雜性就不在這個範圍內。因此，在更支持成長、支持商業發展的政府領導下，出現更偏向高端市場的趨勢也就不足為奇了，這種趨勢會反映在美元價值上，但不會反映在交易數量上。

The second would be the velocity of capital with sponsors. And I continue to think that we haven't really gotten the reset with sponsor activity. We will. We hope. And when we get that, you'll start to see that reflective in number of transactions and in transaction count. I think those would be the two that I would highlight.

第二點是資金流向贊助商的速度。我仍然認為，我們在贊助商活動方面還沒有真正實現重置。我們將。我們希望如此。當我們達到那個目標時，你就會開始在交易數量和交易計數中看到這種變化。我認為我會重點介紹這兩點。

That's helpful color. And for my follow-up, I just wanted to unpack your commentary on the Park Hill business a bit. You noted in your prepared remarks that Park Hill revenues were down year-on-year so far this year and PCS revenues were up, but the placement line was also up. So I just wanted to -- if you could just unpack that piece a bit more, whether there's some non-Park Hill fees in that placement line. And then also last quarter, you noted that you expect a significant acceleration in PCS fees in the second half. Based on the commentary, it doesn't seem like that came through in 3Q. So I just wanted to get an update here.

這是個很有幫助的顏色。作為後續問題，我只想稍微解讀一下您對帕克山事件的評論。您在準備好的演講稿中提到，今年到目前為止，Park Hill 的收入年減，而 PCS 的收入有所上升，但安置線也有所上升。所以我想問的是——如果您能再詳細解釋一下那部分內容，那條招聘信息中是否包含一些非 Park Hill 的費用。此外，上個季度您也提到，預計下半年 PCS 費用將大幅增加。從評論來看，第三季似乎並沒有反映出這一點。所以我想在這裡了解一下最新情況。

Well, just let me just take the latter part. I think it did. And just to recall, those get booked in advisory. So just to be clear, what we said is exactly what happened, and that strength is counted as advisory as distinct from placement in most instances, and that's reflected in our financials. But on the former, I'll turn it back to you.

好吧，就讓我來回答後半部。我覺得確實如此。需要提醒的是，這些預約都安排在諮詢服務中。所以說清楚點，我們所說的就是事實，而這種實力在大多數情況下被視為諮詢而非投資，這也反映在我們的財務報表中。但對於前者，我會把它交還給你。

Yes. And then on the -- just a reminder that the placement line includes Park Hill placement, but it also includes any corporate placement. So we did have some placement fees that were outside of Park Hill.

是的。還有一點要提醒的是──安置名單包括 Park Hill 的安置，但也包括任何企業安置。所以，我們確實有一些安置費是在帕克山以外的地方收取的。

Which is just another -- I think all you're doing is you're putting a highlight on the fact that I think we maybe need to transition away from these advisory placement designations because I'm not sure it helps give anybody any real clarity on the business. And we don't spend a lot of time apportioning it one way or the other. At the end of the day, they're advisory with a capital A revenues because they all relate to intellectual capital and intellectual advice. But I appreciate your question.

這只是另一個問題——我認為你所做的只是強調了這樣一個事實，那就是我們或許需要放棄這些顧問職位稱號，因為我不確定它是否能幫助任何人真正了解業務。我們不會花太多時間去權衡利弊。歸根結底，它們都是諮詢服務，收入以大寫字母 A 開頭，因為它們都與知識資本和知識諮詢有關。但我很感謝你的提問。

Alex Bond, KBW.

Alex Bond，KBW。

Just wondering if there's anything that stood out from you in your recent dialogues with clients in regard to the overall credit backdrop. Curious how you're thinking about this broadly given your obviously strong presence in the restructuring market, the fact that private credit remains in the headlines, and we've got a couple of high-profile bankruptcies here recently. So any color you can add here would be great.

想問您在最近與客戶的對話中，關於整體信貸環境，有沒有什麼特別突出的地方？鑑於您在重整市場中顯然擁有強大的影響力，私人信貸仍然是新聞熱點，而且最近還出現了幾起備受矚目的破產事件，我很想知道您對此有何看法。所以，如果你能在這裡添加任何顏色，那就太好了。

Well, look, I'll just make some general observations. One is when you see spreads tighten as much, I'm not sure that credit has been appropriately priced. I think that's maybe more the issue. And I suspect that over time, you'll probably see sort of more normalized spreads. And as it relates to these situations, unfortunately, malfeasance is a risk factor, and it occurs in bull markets, it occurs in bad markets. And I'm not yet seeing evidence that this is widespread. But when you're putting out an enormous quantum of capital, it does put pressure on diligence, diligence standards. And if you're dealing with individuals or entities that are not forthright and are engaged in improper activity, you're not going to catch all of it, which is why I just come back to some of this may not have been fully reflected in just how credit overall has been priced.

好吧，我先說幾點整體看法。一種情況是，當利差收窄到這種程度時，我不確定信用定價是否合理。我認為這或許才是真正的問題。我懷疑隨著時間的推移，你可能會看到價差趨於正常化。而就這些情況而言，不幸的是，瀆職行為是一種風險因素，它在多頭市場中會發生，在熊市中也會發生。我目前還沒有看到證據表明這種情況很普遍。但是，當你投入巨額資金時，這確實會對盡職調查和盡職調查標準造成壓力。如果你遇到一些不坦誠、從事不正當活動的個人或實體，你不可能發現所有問題，所以我才說，有些問題可能還沒有完全反映在信用的整體定價上。

What we're much more focused on is the fact that you can't have a world of enormous technological dislocation, all this innovation changes in market sizes, customer behaviors, demand and not have losers alongside winners. Everyone can't be a winner. And we're creating all of these new economy technology companies and new ways for efficiency, there are going to be companies left behind. So I suspect that if you just take a slightly longer-term lens, the number of companies that are going to need to address their balance sheets is probably more likely to grow than to shrink. It may not happen immediately, but I think there's a longer-term trend at play here.

我們更關注的是這樣一個事實：在一個科技發生巨大變革、市場規模、客戶行為、需求發生如此巨大創新變化的世界裡，不可能沒有贏家和輸家。人人都不可能成為贏家。我們正在創造所有這些新經濟技術公司和新的效率提升方式，但總是會有一些公司被落下。因此，我懷疑，如果從更長遠的角度來看，需要解決資產負債表問題的公司數量可能會增加而不是減少。這或許不會立即發生，但我認為這裡有長期趨勢。

And then maybe for my follow-up, I suppose just trying to understand to what degree maybe the strong restructuring activity has been a benefit to the comp ratio in recent periods. The headcount here is obviously a little bit lower than the strategic advisory business. So I guess just in a scenario where maybe the restructuring activity does slow a bit, is it -- is there anything that would lead you to believe that there might be less comp leverage just given the smaller headcount there? And maybe if there's anything else we should be considering in that regard?

然後，我的後續問題是，我想了解一下，近期強勁的重組活動在多大程度上對薪酬比率產生了積極影響。這裡的員工人數顯然比策略諮詢業務少一些。所以我想，如果重組活動稍微放緩，那麼——鑑於員工人數減少，是否有任何跡象表明薪酬槓桿作用可能會降低？或許我們在這方面還有其他需要考慮的因素？

Look, obviously, if there are big dislocations to our revenue, good or not, that will affect because this is a roll-up of all of the businesses. But if we continue to have steady growth or if we're going to have a reasonable match between the headcount growth and revenue, then you're just going to see a steady decline in the comp ratio. If you see a disconnect between those as we saw in '23, where you have the overall strategic advisory market meaningfully down. At the same time, you're adding meaningful heads, you're going to see real pressure to the comp line. So it's like anything else, we see a baseline direction of travel, which is to get our comp ratio lower. But if there is a shock to the system in one place, good or bad, that could either accelerate or retard the improvement. But that's why we never want to lock in precisely to a number. We're much more comfortable talking about the direction of travel and what factors would cause that to no longer be operative.

顯然，如果我們的收入出現重大波動，無論是好是壞，都會產生影響，因為這是所有業務的合併。但是，如果我們繼續保持穩定成長，或者如果我們能夠使員工人數成長與收入保持合理的匹配，那麼薪酬比率就會穩定下降。如果你看到這兩者之間存在脫節，就像我們在 2023 年看到的那樣，當時整體策略諮詢市場大幅下滑。同時，隨著更多有意義的球員加入，你會看到競爭線面臨真正的壓力。所以和其他事情一樣，我們看到了一個基本的前進方向，那就是降低我們的薪酬比率。但是，如果系統在某個地方受到衝擊，無論是好的還是壞的，都可能加速或延緩改進。但也因為如此，我們才永遠不想把目標精確地鎖定在一個數字上。我們更願意討論發展方向以及哪些因素會導致這種發展方向不再奏效。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

James Yaro，高盛集團。

I just wanted to ask a nitty-gritty one. Any, I guess, pull forward in the quarter that we should be aware of?

我只是想問個具體問題。我想，本季還有哪些值得我們關注的好消息呢？

It was relatively modest. It was $8 million this quarter. Last year, it was $6 million, so pretty similar.

它相對來說比較簡樸。本季營收為800萬美元。去年是600萬美元，所以差不多。

That concludes our question-and-answer period. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Taubman for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將電話交還給陶布曼先生，請他作總結發言。

Well, we thank everyone for their interest and for participating in this morning's earnings report, and we look forward to speaking with all of you in the new year when we report full year results. Thank you, and have a good day.

感謝大家對今天早上的財報報告的關注和參與，我們期待在新的一年與大家再次交流，屆時我們將發布全年業績報告。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。