派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加派克-漢尼汾 2022 財年第四季度和全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給首席財務官 Todd Leombruno。請繼續。

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Parker's fiscal year 2022 Q4 earnings release webcast. As Carmen said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer, speaking. And as usual, with me today are Tom Williams, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, Vice Chairman and President.

謝謝你，卡門。大家早上好，感謝您參加派克 2022 財年第四季度收益發佈網絡直播。正如 Carmen 所說，我是首席財務官 Todd Leombruno。和往常一樣，今天和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官湯姆·威廉姆斯；和李班克斯，副主席兼總裁。

Today, our discussion will address forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 of the presentation provides details to our disclosure statement in these areas. Actual results may differ from our projections due to uncertainties listed in these forward-looking statements and detailed in our SEC filings. Reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures, along with this presentation, have been made available under the Investors section at parker.com and will remain available for 1 year.

今天，我們將討論前瞻性預測和非公認會計準則財務指標。演示文稿的幻燈片 2 提供了我們在這些領域的披露聲明的詳細信息。由於這些前瞻性陳述中列出並在我們的 SEC 文件中詳細說明的不確定性，實際結果可能與我們的預測不同。所有非 GAAP 措施的對賬以及本演示文稿已在 parker.com 的“投資者”部分提供，並將保留 1 年。

In respect to the Meggitt transaction, while we expect this transaction to close in Q1 of fiscal year 2023, that's our current quarter, we are still down by the requirements of the U.K. Takeover Code in respect to discussing certain details. We do plan to hold an investor call shortly after the close to provide expanded color on the transaction once the regulations allow.

關於美捷特交易，雖然我們預計該交易將在 2023 財年第一季度（即我們當前的季度）完成，但我們仍然不符合英國收購守則在討論某些細節方面的要求。我們確實計劃在收盤後不久召開投資者電話會議，以便在法規允許後為交易提供更多色彩。

For the call today, we'll start with Tom discussing the fourth quarter and our fiscal year 2022 full year results. And I'll follow with a brief financial summary and review some of the assumptions around our initial fiscal 2023 guidance that we issued this morning. After that, we'll finish the call with the Q&A section for any questions you have for Tom, Lee or myself.

對於今天的電話會議，我們將從湯姆開始討論第四季度和我們 2022 財年的全年業績。接下來，我將提供一份簡短的財務摘要，並回顧我們今天上午發布的關於我們最初的 2023 財年指導的一些假設。之後，我們將在 Q&A 部分結束您對 Tom、Lee 或我自己的任何問題。

So with that, Tom, I'll turn it over to you and ask everyone to refer to Slide #3.

因此，湯姆，我將把它交給你，並請大家參考幻燈片#3。

Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everybody, and let me welcome everybody as well to the call.

謝謝你，托德，大家早上好，讓我也歡迎大家來電。

Starting with Slide 3. We had a great quarter. It was absolutely a dynamite record performance, great execution by the team around the world. The first two bullets really is what drove our success. Safety has always been our top priority. We're leveraging high-performance teams. Think of that as how we are organized around the world and how we engage and involve our people. Lean is how we run the factories and Kaizen is our culture of continuous improvement in how we go about making things better.

從幻燈片 3 開始。我們有一個很棒的季度。這絕對是一個炸藥的記錄表現，世界各地的團隊的出色執行。前兩顆子彈確實是推動我們成功的原因。安全一直是我們的首要任務。我們正在利用高績效團隊。把它想像成我們在世界各地的組織方式，以及我們如何讓我們的員工參與進來。精益是我們經營工廠的方式，Kaizen 是我們不斷改進的文化，我們如何讓事情變得更好。

We also just conducted our 2022 engagement survey. We were able to capture over 90% participation of our people around the world, asked them questions around empowerment and engagement. And we got great results. We got results that put us in the top 8% of industrial companies. And it's really these first two bullets that's driving an ownership culture within the company, driving an ownership of results and our business performance.

我們還剛剛進行了 2022 年敬業度調查。我們能夠吸引全球 90% 以上的員工參與，向他們詢問有關賦權和參與的問題。我們得到了很好的結果。我們的結果使我們躋身工業公司前 8% 的行列。正是前兩顆子彈在公司內部推動了所有權文化，推動了對結果和業務績效的所有權。

Going down to the third bullet, sales were $4.2 billion. It's an increase of 6% versus the prior year. Organic growth was 10% versus the prior year, so excellent quarter organically.

到第三個項目，銷售額為 42 億美元。與去年同期相比增長了 6%。有機增長與去年相比增長了 10%，因此有機增長非常出色。

Segment operating margins was 20.9% as reported or 22.9% adjusted. So that's a 70 basis points better than prior year. This is really excellent margin expansion in the face of all the challenges that you're fully aware of, supply chain inefficiencies, inflation, and of course, the China COVID lockdowns.

報告的分部營業利潤率為 20.9%，調整後為 22.9%。因此，這比去年高出 70 個基點。面對您充分意識到的所有挑戰、供應鏈效率低下、通貨膨脹，當然還有中國 COVID 封鎖，這確實是極好的利潤率擴張。

So just really outstanding performance in a very difficult environment. Lots of records and my thanks to the global team for all their hard work.

因此，在非常困難的環境中表現非常出色。很多記錄，我感謝全球團隊的辛勤工作。

If we move to Slide 4, talking about the full year, came in at $15.9 billion in sales, 12% organic growth versus the prior year. So a really big year for us organically. Record segment operating margin, 20.1% as reported or 22.3% adjusted. That was 120 basis points better than the prior year. It really speaks to the robustness and the agility of our business model. Operating cash flow was $2.4 billion, and that represented 15.4% of sales. So a mid-teens CFOA with growing sales, which was very commendable.

如果我們轉到幻燈片 4，談論全年，銷售額為 159 億美元，與上一年相比有機增長 12%。所以有機地對我們來說是非常重要的一年。分部營業利潤率創紀錄，報告為 20.1%，調整後為 22.3%。這比去年高出 120 個基點。它確實說明了我們商業模式的穩健性和敏捷性。經營現金流為 24 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.4%。因此，一個銷售額不斷增長的中年 CFOA，非常值得稱道。

And then, of course, all of you hopefully are aware we announced our FY '27 targets in the March Investor Day, and I'll just summarize. It was bigger growth, bigger margins, bigger cash flow targets, and we're confident in our ability to get there in the future. So a transformed company with a promising future.

然後，當然，希望你們所有人都知道我們在 3 月的投資者日宣布了 27 財年的目標，我只是總結一下。這是更大的增長、更大的利潤率、更大的現金流目標，我們對未來實現目標的能力充滿信心。因此，一家轉型後的公司，前景廣闊。

What drives us is on Slide 5. It's what's been driving us in the past, present and will drive us in the future. First is living up to our purpose, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. Being great generators of cash as evidenced by the mid-teens and CFOA that you saw, and great deployers of cash by our pending Meggitt acquisition. And then being a top quartile company and how we perform versus our peers.

驅動我們的是幻燈片 5。它是過去、現在和未來推動我們的動力。首先是實現我們的目標，實現工程突破，創造更美好的明天。正如您所看到的青少年和 CFOA 所證明的那樣，是偉大的現金創造者，以及我們待定的 Meggitt 收購所證明的偉大的現金部署者。然後是一家頂級四分之一的公司，以及我們與同行相比的表現。

Which really goes to Slide 6. What I'd like to show to this slide, it's updated now for FY '22 numbers. And really the reason for showing it is objective evidence that our company is significantly different, significantly better than it's been in the past.

這真的是幻燈片 6。我想在這張幻燈片上展示的內容，現在已針對 22 財年的數字進行了更新。真正展示它的原因是客觀證據表明我們的公司明顯不同，明顯優於過去。

On the left-hand side is adjusted EPS, and on the right-hand side is adjusted EBITDA margin. And I think the pace of improvement speaks for itself. You can look at this chart, everything is moving high into the right and it's really great progress.

左側是調整後的每股收益，右側是調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。我認為改進的速度不言而喻。你可以看看這張圖表，一切都在向右上方移動，這真的是很大的進步。

In particular, if you look at '21 versus '22 on EPS, going from $15.04 to $18.72. That's a gain of $3.68. It's the largest year-over-year dollar gain we've had on EPS in the history of the company. So it was a 24% improvement.

特別是，如果你看一下 21 年與 22 年的每股收益，從 15.04 美元到 18.72 美元。這是 3.68 美元的收益。這是公司歷史上每股收益的最大同比增長。所以這是一個 24% 的改進。

On the right-hand side, almost 800 bps of EBITDA margin improvement, which is fantastic. And if you look at these two improvement trends side by side, arguably the most improved industrial company out there over this time period, and I'm hoping for the shareholders, a great company to invest in as well.

在右側，EBITDA 利潤率提高了近 800 個基點，這太棒了。如果你並排看這兩個改進趨勢，可以說是這段時間裡進步最大的工業公司，我希望股東們也能投資一家偉大的公司。

Going to Slide 7. I like the picture here, we're trying to symbolize that we're coming in for a landing here on Meggitt. We're close to the end. We expect to close sometime in Q1, our current quarter FY '23. The only remaining regulatory approval is the U.S. Department of Justice, which we expect to complete sometime in the quarter. And following the U.S. DOJ, it's customary to go to court in the U.K. to get final approval, which we expect also in the current quarter.

轉到幻燈片 7。我喜歡這裡的圖片，我們試圖像徵我們即將登陸 Meggitt。我們接近尾聲了。我們預計將在第一季度的某個時候關閉，即我們當前的 23 財年季度。唯一剩下的監管批准是美國司法部，我們預計將在本季度的某個時候完成。繼美國司法部之後，通常會在英國上法庭以獲得最終批准，我們預計本季度也會獲得最終批准。

The timing here is perfect. We're adding a transformational acquisition, doubling aerospace at the beginning of a commercial aerospace recovery and with the synergies in front of us to help us grow the top line and the bottom line. And as Todd mentioned, we'll host a call after this closes to bring you up to date on Meggitt and to update our guidance.

這裡的時機是完美的。我們正在增加一項轉型收購，在商業航空航天復甦之初將航空航天業翻一番，並利用我們面前的協同效應來幫助我們提高收入和利潤。正如托德所說，我們將在此結束後召開電話會議，讓您了解 Meggitt 的最新信息並更新我們的指導。

Moving to Slide 8. We're going to talk a lot in the Q&A about FY '23 sales guidance, I'm sure. But I wanted to highlight the future growth drivers that we talked about in the March Investor Day, these growth drivers remain intact. I'm just going to walk you briefly through the five columns that you see here.

轉到幻燈片 8。我敢肯定，我們將在 Q&A 中談論很多關於 23 財年銷售指導的內容。但我想強調我們在 3 月投資者日討論的未來增長動力，這些增長動力保持不變。我將簡要介紹您在此處看到的五列。

The first is our business system, The Win Strategy. It's about the things we can do ourselves to grow differently organically. It's about innovation, strategic positioning, distribution growth, incentive plan changes that we're making and simplify design.

首先是我們的業務系統，The Win Strategy。這是關於我們自己可以做的事情，以實現不同的有機增長。這是關於我們正在進行的創新、戰略定位、分銷增長、激勵計劃變更和簡化設計。

Go to the next column, the CapEx, changes that we expect over this time period, we think this will be a very constructive time for industrials. There's going to be a need to invest in supply chain development, tool sourcing, automation, all things that are going to be very helpful and needed to for Parker products.

轉到下一欄，資本支出，我們預計在這段時間內的變化，我們認為這對工業來說將是一個非常有建設性的時期。將需要投資於供應鏈開發、工具採購、自動化，以及所有對派克產品非常有幫助和需要的東西。

Regarding channel restocking, and particularly here, I'm referring to the distribution channel, it's improving, but there's still a ways to go. And I think our partners will probably be somewhat cautious as they add inventory. But as we go out the next several years, they're clearly not at the inventory levels they'd like to be, so that's additional tailwind.

關於渠道補貨，特別是在這裡，我指的是分銷渠道，它正在改善，但還有一段路要走。而且我認為我們的合作夥伴在增加庫存時可能會有些謹慎。但隨著我們在接下來的幾年裡走出去，他們顯然沒有達到他們想要的庫存水平，所以這是額外的順風。

The acquisitions are transformational. They've reshaped the portfolio, doubling filtration, doubling engineered materials, doubling our aerospace business once Meggitt closes and really reshaping the portfolio to be much more longer cycle, accretive, more resilient.

這些收購是變革性的。他們重塑了產品組合，將過濾功能加倍，工程材料加倍，在 Meggitt 關閉後將我們的航空航天業務翻倍，並真正重塑產品組合，使其周期更長、更具增值性、更具彈性。

And then our linkage to the secular trends around the world, aerospace, digital, electrifications and clean technologies are all going to help us grow it differently.

然後，我們與世界各地的長期趨勢、航空航天、數字化、電氣化和清潔技術的聯繫都將幫助我們以不同的方式發展它。

So there's targeted organic growth by FY '27, 4% to 6%. We think industrials and Parker in particular is going to be a very attractive space over the upcoming years.

因此，到 27 財年，目標有機增長為 4% 至 6%。我們認為工業，尤其是派克在未來幾年將成為一個非常有吸引力的領域。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Todd to talk more about the quarter.

有了這個，我將把它轉回托德來更多地談論這個季度。

Okay. Thanks, Tom.

好的。謝謝，湯姆。

I'm going to start on Slide 10. This is just a year-over-year comparison of our Q4 financial results. And as Tom said, really proud of our team members for just delivering across-the-board record results against the backdrop of several continued global challenges.

我將從幻燈片 10 開始。這只是我們第四季度財務業績的同比比較。正如湯姆所說，我們為我們的團隊成員在持續不斷的全球挑戰的背景下提供全面創紀錄的結果感到非常自豪。

So as Tom mentioned, the sales was up 6%. We did hit a record sales number of $4.2 billion in the quarter. Organic growth was double-digit at 10%. I think everyone is following these currency rates, the strong dollar drove currency headwinds for us. It was minus 4% impact to sales. Our backlog remains healthy. It did increase 21% versus the prior year, and over 90% of our markets are in growth phase. So we're very happy with that. Two markets to note, commercial aerospace and North American industrial markets are two that really remain very robust.

正如湯姆所說，銷售額增長了 6%。我們在本季度確實達到了創紀錄的 42 億美元的銷售額。有機增長達到兩位數，達到 10%。我認為每個人都在關注這些貨幣匯率，強勢美元給我們帶來了貨幣逆風。對銷售的影響為負 4%。我們的積壓工作保持健康。它確實比去年增加了 21%，我們 90% 以上的市場都處於增長階段。所以我們對此非常滿意。需要注意的兩個市場，商業航空航天和北美工業市場是兩個真正保持非常強勁的市場。

Adjusted segment operating margin was 22.9% for the quarter. That's a 70 basis point increase versus the prior year. And our adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.1%. That's a 100 basis point increase from prior year in the quarter. Both these margin numbers, segment operating and EBITDA margins, exited the year at the highest levels of our fiscal year. So really happy with the strong finish that the team put forth in Q4.

本季度調整後的部門營業利潤率為 22.9%。這比上一年增加了 70 個基點。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 23.1%。該季度比去年同期增加了 100 個基點。這些利潤率數字、部門運營利潤率和 EBITDA 利潤率均以本財年的最高水平退出了這一年。對團隊在第四季度的強勁表現感到非常高興。

When you move down to net income, adjusted net income was $671 million. That's a 16% ROS, which just also happens to be a 16% improvement from prior year. And again, I'll just note due to the continued strengthening of the dollar, specifically versus the pound, we did record a pretax noncash charge in the quarter for $619 million. That is related to the Meggitt deal-contingent currency contracts.

當你向下移動到淨收入時，調整後的淨收入為 6.71 億美元。這是 16% 的 ROS，也恰好比上一年提高了 16%。再說一次，由於美元持續走強，特別是兌英鎊，我們確實在本季度記錄了 6.19 億美元的稅前非現金費用。這與 Meggitt 交易或有貨幣合約有關。

And I just want to remind everyone that these contracts we entered into these contracts really to eliminate currency exchange rate risk associated with the purchase price of the Meggitt acquisition. And the total expected U.S. dollar outlay related to the transaction included in these contracts is neutral to the transaction consideration we announced last year.

我只想提醒大家，我們簽訂這些合同確實是為了消除與美捷特收購價格相關的貨幣匯率風險。與這些合同中包含的交易相關的預期美元總支出與我們去年宣布的交易對價無關。

So moving on to EPS. EPS is great, $5.16 on an adjusted basis, that is a record, It is an increase of $0.78 or $0.18 or 18% versus prior year, really strong results there. And I really just commend our team for the strong finish for the fiscal year.

所以轉向EPS。每股收益很好，調整後為 5.16 美元，創紀錄，與去年相比增加了 0.78 美元或 0.18 美元或 18%，那裡的業績非常強勁。我真的只是讚揚我們的團隊在本財年的強勁表現。

If you move to Slide 11, this is just a bridge. This details some of those elements of the $0.78 improvement. We did generate 35% incremental margins. That was really aided by our margin expansion, but more significantly, just very solid execution across every one of our businesses.

如果您移至幻燈片 11，這只是一座橋樑。這詳細說明了 0.78 美元改進的一些要素。我們確實產生了 35% 的增量利潤。這確實得益於我們的利潤率擴張，但更重要的是，我們每一項業務的執行都非常穩健。

Adjusted segment operating income increased by $80 million or 9% versus the same quarter last year. That accounts for over 60% or $0.47 of the EPS improvement that we had in Q4.

調整後的部門營業收入與去年同期相比增加了 8000 萬美元或 9%。這占我們第四季度每股收益改善的 60% 以上或 0.47 美元。

If you net corporate G&A, interest expense and other, all that amounts to just $0.01 favorable. And we did have a few discrete tax settlements in the quarter. That drove a lower income tax expense, that did calculate to a $0.24 positive impact to EPS, and that was specifically in our fourth quarter.

如果您將公司 G&A、利息費用和其他費用淨額計算，那麼所有這些費用僅為 0.01 美元。我們在本季度確實有一些離散的稅收結算。這推動了較低的所得稅費用，這確實對每股收益產生了 0.24 美元的積極影響，尤其是在我們的第四季度。

And then finally, just a slight reduction in the number of shares outstanding accounted for a favorable $0.06 to EPS. So all in, that's the 18% increase in adjusted EPS or our $5.16.

最後，僅發行在外的股票數量略有減少就為每股收益帶來了有利的 0.06 美元。總而言之，這是調整後每股收益增加 18% 或我們的 5.16 美元。

If you move to Slide 12, I'll talk a little bit about the segments. Across the board, very strong performance here, 35% incremental margins. We increased segment operating income really across the board, and it's really just nice to see positive organic growth in every segment. That growth continues to be very broad-based.

如果您轉到幻燈片 12，我將稍微談談這些部分。總體而言，這裡的表現非常強勁，利潤率增加了 35%。我們確實全面增加了部門營業收入，很高興看到每個部門都有積極的有機增長。這種增長的基礎仍然非常廣泛。

Orders for the total company ended up positive 3%. And that really is against a backdrop of increasingly more challenging comps. And the team really remains agile in this current supply chain and inflationary environment. We're happy with our actions. It is materializing in results, in the financial statements and just really proud of all the effort that's going on here. All of this gives us performance or confidence in our performance that we will achieve our FY '27 targets that Tom mentioned, we just announced just back in March.

整個公司的訂單最終增長了 3%。這確實是在越來越具有挑戰性的比賽的背景下進行的。在當前的供應鍊和通貨膨脹環境中，團隊確實保持敏捷。我們對我們的行為感到滿意。它正在實現結果，在財務報表中，並且為這裡正在進行的所有努力感到非常自豪。所有這一切都使我們對我們將實現湯姆提到的 27 財年目標的表現或表現充滿信心，我們剛剛在 3 月份宣布。

So if I jump into the businesses in North America, very strong organic growth, 15% versus prior year. Sales reached $2.1 billion, adjusted operating margins increased 40 basis points. Our North American team achieved 22.9% ROS. And really, we've talked about this all year. They continue to manage well through a more difficult regional supply chain environment, so just kudos to them.

因此，如果我涉足北美的業務，有機增長非常強勁，比去年同期增長 15%。銷售額達到 21 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率提高了 40 個基點。我們的北美團隊實現了 22.9% 的 ROS。真的，我們整年都在談論這個問題。他們繼續在更困難的區域供應鏈環境中管理得很好，所以對他們表示敬意。

Incrementals in this segment was about 25%. So we're happy with that, with all the headwinds. And really, orders continue to impress at plus 10%. In the North American segment, our backlog is up 50% this prior year, and it did grow 5% sequentially from Q3.

該部分的增量約為 25%。因此，我們對此感到滿意，並且遇到了所有不利因素。實際上，訂單繼續以 10% 的速度增長。在北美市場，我們的積壓訂單比前一年增長了 50%，並且比第三季度環比增長了 5%。

Moving on to international. International sales, $1.4 billion, organic growth just above 5% for that segment. Organic growth in EMEA and Latin America was mid-teens positive with Asia Pacific, mid-single digits negative. Obviously, that was driven by the shutdowns in China based on the COVID outbreak.

繼續走向國際。國際銷售額為 14 億美元，該細分市場的有機增長略高於 5%。歐洲、中東和非洲和拉丁美洲的有機增長為正數，亞太地區為正數，負數為中個位數。顯然，這是由於中國因 COVID 爆發而停工所致。

But margins, if you look at margins, margins were 22.4% and still increased 30 basis points from prior year despite all that -- all those challenges. And really just tremendous effort from our Asia Pacific team. We forecasted $100 million negative sales impact based on the shutdowns at the time we talked last quarter. The team really outachieved and that ended up being only a $50 million impact for the quarter, and it was really a strong month in June. So much appreciation to our super dedicated Asia Pacific team. They really went above and beyond to serve our customers.

但是利潤率，如果你看一下利潤率，利潤率是 22.4%，儘管如此——所有這些挑戰，仍然比上一年增加了 30 個基點。我們的亞太團隊付出了巨大的努力。根據我們上個季度談到的停工情況，我們預測了 1 億美元的負面銷售影響。該團隊確實表現出色，最終對該季度僅產生了 5000 萬美元的影響，而 6 月份確實是一個強勁的月份。非常感謝我們超級敬業的亞太團隊。他們真的超越了為我們的客戶服務。

International order rates did inflect to a minus 4%, which did reflect some short-term impact from those shutdowns in China, but great overall performance by the international team.

國際訂單率確實下降到了負 4%，這確實反映了中國停工的一些短期影響，但國際團隊的整體表現很好。

Looking at Aerospace, another strong quarter from Aerospace. This is the best organic growth and margin performance that, that segment has had all year. Sales were $676 million. Organic growth is about 8%. Commercial businesses in both the OEM and MRO markets are very, very strong. And the operational margins increased 260 basis points and finished at an impressive 24.2%.

看看航空航天，航空航天的另一個強勁季度。這是該部門全年最好的有機增長和利潤率表現。銷售額為 6.76 億美元。有機增長率約為 8%。 OEM 和 MRO 市場的商業業務都非常非常強大。營業利潤率增加了 260 個基點，達到了令人印象深刻的 24.2%。

Those Q4 margins did benefit from a favorable mix, aftermarket mix and lower-than-expected NRE expenses that were really just due to some program timing.

這些第四季度的利潤率確實受益於有利的組合、售後市場組合和低於預期的 NRE 費用，這實際上只是由於某些計劃時間安排所致。

So this is really a record margin performance for that segment, and I still note that we are still below pre-COVID sales levels. So we're very happy with the cost controls and the execution in our Aerospace business.

因此，這確實是該細分市場創紀錄的利潤率表現，我仍然注意到我們仍低於 COVID 之前的銷售水平。因此，我們對航空航天業務的成本控制和執行非常滿意。

A note on orders. Aerospace orders are showing flat. But if you remember, we've talked about this. We did have some very significant military orders that we booked in Q2 of our FY '22 and that continues to make our 12-year comparisons difficult. If we exclude those items, Aerospace orders were positive 24% for the quarter. And our Aerospace dollars in respect to orders continue to remain really strong. So overall, segment performance, very, very strong, and I'm proud of our teams. It's really a testament to our strategy and our purpose.

關於訂單的說明。航空航天訂單持平。但如果你還記得，我們已經討論過這個。我們確實有一些非常重要的軍事訂單，我們在 22 財年的第二季度預訂了這些訂單，這繼續使我們的 12 年比較變得困難。如果我們排除這些項目，本季度航空航天訂單為正 24%。我們在訂單方面的航空航天資金繼續保持強勁。所以總的來說，細分市場的表現非常非常強大，我為我們的團隊感到自豪。這確實證明了我們的戰略和目標。

So if we jump to Slide 13, cash, we had an unbelievable cash flow generation quarter in Q4. It was really stellar. We did exceed the forecast that we gave at Investor Day for both cash flow from operations and free cash flow by about $100 million for the full fiscal year. Tom mentioned this, but we generated $2.4 billion in cash flow from ops. That was 15.4% of sales. Free cash flow was $2.2 billion or 13.9% of sales. And obviously, the conversion is 168%.

因此，如果我們跳到幻燈片 13，現金，我們在第四季度有一個令人難以置信的現金流產生季度。這真是太棒了。我們確實超過了我們在投資者日對整個財政年度的運營現金流和自由現金流的預測約 1 億美元。湯姆提到了這一點，但我們從運營中產生了 24 億美元的現金流。那是銷售額的 15.4%。自由現金流為 22 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.9%。顯然，轉化率為 168%。

We really have been managing working capital very diligently throughout the year. As our year progressed, that use of working capital began to normalize across the company. If you look at this year, the change in working capital was a 1.6% of sales use of cash. If you're comparing that to prior year last year, that was a [1.0%] source of cash.

我們全年都在非常努力地管理營運資金。隨著我們這一年的進展，營運資金的使用開始在整個公司正常化。如果你看一下今年，營運資金的變化是銷售現金使用的 1.6%。如果您將其與去年的前一年進行比較，那是 [1.0%] 的現金來源。

So we are very disciplined. Our teams are focused on generating top quartile cash flow performance and again, we're really confident that we can achieve that FY '27 target of 16%.

所以我們非常有紀律。我們的團隊專注於產生最高四分之一的現金流表現，我們真的有信心能夠實現 27 財年 16% 的目標。

Just a few comments on leverage at the end of the quarter. Gross debt to EBITDA was 4.7, net debt-to-EBITDA was 4.5. That increase from last quarter is really a result of our issuance of $3.6 billion of bonds that we will use to fund the Meggitt transaction. That cash is sitting in escrow. It is on our balance sheet listed as restricted cash. If we exclude that restricted cash, our net debt to EBITDA at the end of June was 2.0x. So happy with the reduction there. The spike is just really preparing for the Meggitt transaction.

本季度末關於槓桿的一些評論。總債務對 EBITDA 為 4.7，淨債務對 EBITDA 為 4.5。與上一季度相比的增長實際上是由於我們發行了 36 億美元的債券，我們將用這些債券為 Meggitt 交易提供資金。這筆現金存放在託管賬戶中。它在我們的資產負債表上列為受限現金。如果我們排除受限制的現金，我們在 6 月底對 EBITDA 的淨債務是 2.0 倍。對那裡的減少感到非常滿意。峰值只是真正為 Meggitt 交易做準備。

And just one final note on our strong cash flow performance. We've already used $1.5 billion of cash that we've generated this year to fund the Meggitt transaction. So we are really happy with our position on that and we're looking forward to getting to close and welcoming all the Meggitt team members into Parker-Hannifin.

最後一點是關於我們強勁的現金流表現。我們已經使用今年產生的 15 億美元現金為美捷特交易提供資金。因此，我們對我們在這方面的立場感到非常滿意，我們期待著結束並歡迎所有 Meggitt 團隊成員加入 Parker-Hannifin。

Okay. If we go to Slide 14, guidance, this is just some detail on the guidance we released this morning. As usual, we're providing this on an as reported and an adjusted basis. And I think everyone got this, but just to be very clear, while we expect that Meggitt transaction to close in this quarter, we have not included any sales or earnings in our guidance number.

好的。如果我們轉到幻燈片 14，指導，這只是我們今天早上發布的指導的一些細節。像往常一樣，我們在報告和調整的基礎上提供此信息。我認為每個人都明白這一點，但要非常清楚，雖然我們預計美捷特交易將在本季度完成，但我們的指導數字中並未包含任何銷售額或收益。

However, we have given you color on the interest expense that is already committed for Q1. And I'll give you some more color on that in a second. So no sales and earnings, just the Q1 interest that we have already committed to in our Q1.

但是，我們已經為您提供了第一季度已經承諾的利息費用的顏色。我會在一秒鐘內給你更多的顏色。所以沒有銷售和收益，只有我們在第一季度已經承諾的第一季度利息。

So if you look at sales, reported sales growth for the year is forecasted to be flat to 3% and or 1.5% positive at the midpoint. Organic growth is obviously better than that. It's expected to be 3.5% at the midpoint with a range of 2% to 5% on that.

因此，如果您查看銷售額，預計今年報告的銷售額增長將持平至 3% 或 1.5% 的正值。有機增長顯然比這要好。預計中間值為 3.5%，範圍為 2% 至 5%。

As usual, we're using currency rates as of June 30. We do forecast currency to be a headwind this year. It will be about a 2% headwind to sales versus the prior year. And as usual, if you look at the split, our sales are 48% first half, 52% in the second half.

像往常一樣，我們使用截至 6 月 30 日的貨幣匯率。我們確實預測今年的貨幣匯率將是一個不利因素。與上一年相比，銷售額將下降約 2%。和往常一樣，如果你看一下拆分，我們上半年的銷售額是 48%，下半年是 52%。

Moving on to segment operating margins. Our as reported segment operating margin guidance is 20.4%. On an adjusted basis, that's 22.5%. That's at the midpoint. We have a range of 20 basis points on either side of that. And the split of segment operating income is 47% first half, 53% second half. We are forecasting incremental margins to be 30% for the full year.

繼續細分營業利潤率。我們報告的分部營業利潤率指引為 20.4%。在調整後的基礎上，這是 22.5%。那是在中點。我們在這兩邊都有 20 個基點的範圍。分部營業收入佔比上半年為47%，下半年為53%。我們預計全年利潤率的增量為 30%。

And just to give a little bit more clarity on a few additional items. Corporate G&A, we expect to be $204 million in FY '23. The interest related to the legacy company, so this is excluding Meggitt interest, is expected to be $228 million. And that Meggitt-related interest that will cover Q1 only is $42 million or roughly $0.25 of EPS. We will give you an updated interest expense number once we schedule that update call that we have post close on Meggitt.

只是為了更清楚地說明一些額外的項目。公司 G&A，我們預計 23 財年將達到 2.04 億美元。與遺留公司相關的利益，因此不包括 Meggitt 的利益，預計為 2.28 億美元。僅涵蓋第一季度的美捷特相關權益為 4200 萬美元或每股收益約 0.25 美元。一旦我們安排了我們在 Meggitt 上發布的更新電話，我們將為您提供更新的利息費用編號。

Other income and expense is expected to be $14 million and as usual, any acquisition-related expenses that are associated with the Meggitt transaction, we'll continue to book those as incurred. We're not going to guide for those, we will just adjust those out as they incurred.

其他收入和費用預計為 1400 萬美元，與往常一樣，與美捷特交易相關的任何與收購相關的費用，我們將繼續按發生額入賬。我們不會為這些提供指導，我們只會在它們發生時調整它們。

We do expect the tax rate from continuing ops to be 23% next year, that is essentially what our continuing ops rate was this year. That does not include any discrete items that may be favorable or unfavorable.

我們確實預計明年持續運營的稅率為 23%，這基本上是我們今年的持續運營稅率。這不包括任何可能有利或不利的離散項目。

And finally, we expect full year EPS on an as-reported basis to be $16.53 at the midpoint or $18.50 adjusted. And the range on both of those figures is plus or minus $0.40. EPS is split 46% first half, 54% second half. And just a little color on Q1. We foresee Q1 adjusted EPS to be $4.13, and that's right at the midpoint. And then just a little color on those adjustments. It's really just the acquired intangible asset amortization, which is now $300 million, and expected business realignment charges of $35 million. So we tried to give a lot of color there. We hope that, that was helpful.

最後，我們預計全年每股收益在報告的基礎上為中點 16.53 美元或調整後的 18.50 美元。這兩個數字的範圍都是正負 0.40 美元。上半年每股收益為 46%，下半年為 54%。在 Q1 上只是一點顏色。我們預計第一季度調整後的每股收益為 4.13 美元，正好處於中點。然後在這些調整上加一點顏色。這實際上只是收購的無形資產攤銷，現在為 3 億美元，預計業務重組費用為 3500 萬美元。所以我們試著在那裡給很多顏色。我們希望，這很有幫助。

Slide 15 might give a little bit more color. This is just the bridge and really, the highlights here. It's really just continued strength and demand across the board. Obviously, our productivity initiatives and our expectations across all of our operations, increase of segment operating income on a year-over-year basis. The total is $0.49 EPS of increase. And I just want to note that, that does include an estimated headwind of approximately $0.40 based on currency. So in a constant currency, obviously, that $0.49 would be $0.89, but we're incorporating that $0.40 currency headwind, so we get a $0.49 increase in segment operating margin.

幻燈片 15 可能會提供更多顏色。這只是這座橋，真的，這裡的亮點。這實際上只是全面的持續實力和需求。顯然，我們的生產力計劃和我們對所有業務的期望，使部門營業收入同比增長。總計每股收益增加 0.49 美元。我只想指出，這確實包括按貨幣計算的大約 0.40 美元的逆風。因此，在不變的貨幣下，顯然，0.49 美元將是 0.89 美元，但我們將 0.40 美元的貨幣逆風納入其中，因此我們的部門營業利潤率增加了 0.49 美元。

When you look at corporate G&A, that legacy interest and any other items, those are all forecasted to be favorable to prior, those actually help us by $0.09. And then again, that forecasted tax rate of 23% creates a $0.55 headwind compared to that lower tax rate that our actual rate was in FY '22.

當您查看公司 G&A、遺留利益和任何其他項目時，這些項目都被預測為比以前有利，這些實際上幫助了我們 0.09 美元。再說一次，與我們在 22 財年的實際稅率相比，23% 的預測稅率產生了 0.55 美元的逆風。

And I just would note there on that, our FY '22, we always have discretes. We don't try to forecast them because they move around so much. But our FY '22 did have a higher-than-normal amount of discrete items. So that's just a little color on there.

我只想在那兒指出，我們的 22 財年，我們總是有離散的。我們不會試圖預測它們，因為它們會四處移動。但我們 22 財年的離散項目數量確實高於正常水平。所以這只是那裡的一點顏色。

And as I mentioned earlier, we've included that interest expense. You can see the bridge there. It's $0.25, it's $42 million. That is the Q1 amount only, and that's how we walk from our FY '22 finish to legacy $18.75, or including that $0.25 of Meggitt, $18.50.

正如我之前提到的，我們已經包括了利息費用。你可以看到那裡的橋。是 0.25 美元，是 4200 萬美元。這僅是第一季度的金額，這就是我們如何從 22 財年完成到傳統的 18.75 美元，或包括 Meggitt 的 0.25 美元，即 18.50 美元。

So with that, that's my color on guidance. Tom, I'll hand it back to you and ask everyone to move to Slide 16.

因此，這就是我對指導的看法。湯姆，我會把它還給你，請大家移到幻燈片 16。

So just to wrap things up before we open up Q&A. It was a record FY '22, probably easier to say what was not a record, there were so many records to speak of. A challenging environment, just my congratulations to the entire global team for just a job well done. It's been our people, the portfolio changes and the second bullet there, the changes we made on The Win Strategy specifically on Strategy 3.0 that have driven over this period of time 800 basis points, almost 800 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion.

所以只是在我們打開問答之前總結一下。這是 22 財年的唱片，可能更容易說什麼不是唱片，有很多唱片可以說。充滿挑戰的環境，我祝賀整個全球團隊完成了出色的工作。是我們的人員，投資組合的變化和第二個子彈，我們在 The Win Strategy 特別是在 Strategy 3.0 上所做的改變在這段時間內推動了 800 個基點，幾乎 800 個基點的 EBITDA 利潤率擴張。

We're positioned to perform well in FY '23, and it's really because of the remaining items you see on this page the last three bullets. The portfolio is dramatically different, reshaped from where it was in the past with Meggitt closing in this quarter. Very few companies are going to be in a position to add a great company tied to future growth and synergies that we will be able to do.

我們的定位是在 23 財年表現良好，這實際上是因為您在此頁面上看到的剩餘項目是最後三個項目符號。隨著美捷特在本季度收盤，該投資組合與過去的投資組合大不相同。很少有公司能夠加入一家與我們能夠實現的未來增長和協同效應相關的偉大公司。

And then we're positioned for growth with the secular trends, aero, digital, clean tech and electrification. So hopefully, you feel, as you've seen in our numbers, a transformed company with a promising future.

然後，我們為長期趨勢、航空、數字、清潔技術和電氣化的增長做好了準備。因此，正如您在我們的數據中看到的那樣，希望您能感覺到，一家轉型後的公司，未來充滿希望。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Carmen to open up to Q&A.

有了這個，我會把它交給卡門來接受問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

I'm not sure if I'm going to cross any lines with this Meggitt question, but I'll just give it a try. They reported today, as I'm sure you well know. And they put up a 17% EBITDA margin. Just thinking about the trajectory from your slides last year, right? You had them at 19% in 2019, dipping to 14% in 2020, clearly on the upswing now. Are you able to, in any way, address whether kind of the aggregate results there are, in fact, in line with your original deal case?

我不確定我是否會在這個 Meggitt 問題上越界，但我會試一試。他們今天報導了，我相信你很清楚。他們提供了 17% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。想想你去年幻燈片的軌跡，對吧？ 2019 年的比例為 19%，2020 年降至 14%，現在顯然處於上升趨勢。您是否能夠以任何方式確定總體結果是否符合您最初的交易案例？

Jeff, it's Tom. Thank you for the question. Yes, we feel very good about Meggitt's results. They're growing faster actually than we had expected and faster than Parker Aerospace. They grew at 11% for the last 6 months. Their EBITDA held in there at 17%, as you mentioned, and we projected, as we looked at this, as they get back to pre-COVID levels, that would put them at 19% and hopefully may be better. And then with the $300 million of synergies. So they're still in a trajectory, when we put the two companies together, to get that back to that 30% EBITDA for Meggitt. So we feel very good about what the job that they're doing. And frankly, we can't wait to officially welcome them to the team.

傑夫，是湯姆。感謝你的提問。是的，我們對 Meggitt 的結果感到非常滿意。實際上，它們的增長速度比我們預期的要快，而且比 Parker Aerospace 還要快。他們在過去 6 個月中增長了 11%。正如你所提到的，他們的 EBITDA 保持在 17%，我們預計，當我們看到這一點時，隨著他們回到 COVID 之前的水平，這將使他們保持在 19%，並希望可能會更好。然後是 3 億美元的協同效應。因此，當我們將兩家公司放在一起時，他們仍處於一個軌道上，以使美捷特的 EBITDA 回到 30% 的水平。所以我們對他們正在做的工作感覺很好。坦率地說，我們迫不及待地想正式歡迎他們加入團隊。

And just then on, I guess, for Todd on this interest expense. Just to be totally clear, this $0.25 or $42 million just ties to the permanent financing you did, right? So on close, obviously, there's going to be additional interest expense in the equation. It sounds like you're going to kind of fine-tune that for us when you do close. But I just want to be kind of clear on that and any other color you could provide there.

就在那時，我猜，托德要承擔這筆利息費用。完全清楚的是，這 0.25 美元或 4200 萬美元與您所做的永久融資有關，對嗎？因此，很明顯，等式中會有額外的利息費用。聽起來你會在關閉時為我們進行微調。但我只是想明確一點，以及你可以在那裡提供的任何其他顏色。

Yes, it's a good question. You're right. The majority of that $0.25 is related to the longer-term debt that we issued. There is a slice of some CP in there, but the vast majority of that is the bonds that we issued in prep for that.

是的，這是個好問題。你是對的。這 0.25 美元的大部分與我們發行的長期債務有關。那裡有一部分 CP，但其中絕大多數是我們為此準備發行的債券。

And you're right, we will give you a full look at the financing and the interest of layout post close, and we'll fill in the rest of the quarters for the year on that.

你是對的，我們將全面了解融資和佈局後的利息，我們將在此基礎上填寫今年剩餘的季度。

Can I just sneak one more in? Are we still looking at kind of a $70 million gap, so to speak, between GAAP accounting and IFRS accounting as it relates to R&D and other items?

我可以再偷偷溜進去一個嗎？我們是否還在考慮 GAAP 會計和 IFRS 會計之間在研發和其他項目方面存在 7000 萬美元的差距？

Yes, Jeff, I think -- I don't know if we can answer that, Jeff. We're still kind of looking at that. Obviously, post close, that will be part of what we give color on.

是的，傑夫，我想——我不知道我們能否回答這個問題，傑夫。我們仍然在考慮這一點。顯然，關閉後，這將是我們賦予顏色的一部分。

Our next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Congrats on a nice year.

祝賀美好的一年。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Maybe I'll just kind of start, kind of maybe parse out a little bit more the guidance that you just gave for 1Q, the $414 million number, obviously, adjusted for the interest expense would have been kind of more like $438 million. Can you maybe just give us a little bit of details on the trends that you saw exiting the quarter and what the expectation is either from growth or for margins for the core business in 1Q?

也許我會開始，也許會更多地分析一下你剛剛為第一季度提供的指導，4.14 億美元的數字，顯然，根據利息費用調整後會更像是 4.38 億美元。您能否詳細介紹一下您在本季度看到的趨勢以及第一季度核心業務的增長或利潤率的預期？

Joe, it's Tom. So I'll talk about the first quarter, but I'd like to lift it up and then we'll talk about the whole year as well because it kind of goes hand in hand with our thinking there.

喬，是湯姆。所以我會談論第一季度，但我想把它舉起來，然後我們也會談論全年，因為它與我們在那裡的想法息息相關。

And maybe if I could start with we always relish -- and I'm being a little bit sarcastic being one of the first companies to talk about calendar '23, it's a difficult spot to be put in. And this forecast period is probably a little more complex than others because we have a lot of unprecedented actions that have somewhat unknown consequences, things that you're all familiar with, quantitative tightening, rising interest rates, inflation, the dollar strengthening, energy costs and availability and the Ukraine more. So it's a list that we really haven't faced and forecasted into.

也許如果我可以從我們總是津津樂道的開始——而且我有點諷刺地成為最早談論 23 年日曆的公司之一，這是一個很難進入的地方。這個預測期可能是比其他人稍微複雜一點，因為我們有許多前所未有的行動，它們的後果有些未知，你們都熟悉的事情，量化緊縮，利率上升，通貨膨脹，美元走強，能源成本和可用性以及烏克蘭更多。所以這是一個我們真的沒有面對和預測的列表。

But we've got strong backlogs. We've got resilient order entry. We are very pleased with the order entry that we showed for the quarter. And actually, we saw even though international was minus for the quarter, and that was really influenced by EMEA and Asia in the month of June, in particular Asia with the COVID shutdowns. We saw international orders come back quite nicely in July, kind of in that mid- to upper single digits.

但我們有大量的積壓工作。我們有彈性訂單輸入。我們對本季度展示的訂單條目感到非常滿意。實際上，我們看到，即使本季度國際市場為負，這確實受到了 6 月份歐洲、中東和非洲和亞洲的影響，尤其是在 COVID 關閉的亞洲。我們看到 7 月份的國際訂單恢復得相當好，有點像中上位數。

So our guidance really includes our AI model, the inputs from the divisions, customers and distributors. And we still see broad-based growth across almost all of our end markets. We've got almost all the end markets positive.

所以我們的指導確實包括我們的人工智能模型，來自部門、客戶和分銷商的投入。我們仍然看到幾乎所有終端市場的廣泛增長。我們幾乎所有的終端市場都是積極的。

If I could maybe go deeper into some of the secular areas. Aerospace, which you saw at the midpoint, is at 6.5%. We've got greater than 10% for commercial OEM and military MRO, high single digits for commercial MRO. But we're soft on military OEM versus some of the initial provisionings of the pull forward that happened on F-35 and the 135 that will turn around in FY '24. So Aerospace, in general, really, really positive for the whole year.

如果我可以深入一些世俗領域。您在中點看到的航空航天為 6.5%。我們的商業 OEM 和軍用 MRO 超過 10%，商業 MRO 的高個位數。但我們對軍事 OEM 的態度較弱，而 F-35 和 24 財年將扭轉局面的 F-35 和 135 上發生了一些前拉的初步規定。所以航空航天，總的來說，對全年來說真的非常積極。

That whole digital thread to the company is going to grow in that mid-single to high single digits. And what I'm referring to is in markets like semiconductor, heavy-duty truck, which is obviously needed to transport all these digital goods, lift trucks for 5G type of things, data centers, telecom.

公司的整個數字線程將以中個位數到高個位數增長。我指的是半導體、重型卡車（顯然是運輸所有這些數字商品所需要的）、5G 類物品的叉車、數據中心、電信等市場。

And then if I look at clean tech, electrification kind of in aggregate, and if I look at automotive, ag, mining and construction, and you just cut the sliver of electrification that cuts through those, that's all growing at greater than 10%. I'm going to get to your Q1, Joe, hang in there with me.

然後，如果我看一下清潔技術、電氣化的總體情況，如果我看一下汽車、農業、採礦和建築，你只是削減了貫穿這些的電氣化的一小部分，它們的增長率都超過了 10%。我要去你的第一季度，喬，和我一起呆在那裡。

Powergen is going to grow mid-single digits. That's a combination of renewables and conventional. And oil and gas, which has been soft the last couple of years, is going to turn positive greater than 10%. So we've got LNG, CNG and really kind of a return to investment here with, I think, the world recognizing as we journey from brown to green or any of all shades of colors in between if we're going to need oil and gas for many, many years.

Powergen 將增長中個位數。這是可再生能源和傳統能源的結合。過去幾年一直疲軟的石油和天然氣將轉正超過 10%。所以我們有液化天然氣、壓縮天然氣和真正的投資回報，我認為，如果我們需要石油和氣很多很多年。

The other part I would remind people is not only are the growth rates of these secular trends faster, the bill of material content is higher. So our bill of material tends to be 1.5x to 2x traditional ICE application.

我要提醒人們的另一部分不僅是這些長期趨勢的增長率更快，而且材料清單的內容更高。所以我們的物料清單往往是傳統 ICE 應用程序的 1.5 到 2 倍。

So now if I get closer to your question now, the first half, second half splits. First half -- I'm talking about total company, 5.5% organic; second half, 2% organic. And we've got Q1 at a little higher organic growth rate, kind of, say, high single digits, 7%, give or take, for that Q1. And that's what's coming off of the current orders that we've got. The fact that we saw international get better in the month of July is what really kind of framed our thinking for Q1.

所以現在如果我現在更接近你的問題，上半場，下半場分裂。上半年——我說的是整個公司，5.5% 有機；下半年，2% 有機。我們的第一季度有機增長率略高，比如說，高個位數，7%，對於第一季度，給予或接受。這就是我們現有訂單的結果。我們看到國際在 7 月份變得更好，這一事實真正構成了我們對第一季度的思考。

Joe, I'll just add a little bit of color on Q1. Obviously, you called out the additional interest expense that we tried to highlight there. But tax rate is a big issue. If you look at our Q4 tax rate, it had those discrete items in there. We are guiding to 23%. And then you know this is a normal thing, but we do recognize a higher amount of equity-based comp in Q1. So if you're doing a Q4 to Q1 walk, that other line is higher than what we normally have in Q4.

喬，我將在第一季度添加一點顏色。顯然，您提到了我們試圖在那裡強調的額外利息費用。但是稅率是個大問題。如果您查看我們的第四季度稅率，就會發現其中包含那些離散的項目。我們正在指導 23%。然後你知道這是正常的事情，但我們確實認識到第一季度基於股權的補償量更高。因此，如果您要進行 Q4 到 Q1 的步行，則另一條線高於我們通常在 Q4 中的水平。

It comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.

它來自 Scott Davis 與 Melius Research 的系列。

You're one of the few companies we cover that's generated real cash flow this quarter, and you didn't seem to have a whole lot of supply chain problems. I mean what -- is there anything that supply chain or that you would call out as an issue?

您是我們報導的少數幾家本季度產生實際現金流的公司之一，而且您似乎沒有遇到很多供應鏈問題。我的意思是——有什麼供應鍊或你會提出的問題嗎？

Scott, it's Tom. I'll first -- part of why we've done as maybe better than most has been that strategy we've been utilizing for years, that's local for local. We've been focused on dual sourcing before dual sourcing became popular. And so that has clearly helped us weather this.

斯科特，是湯姆。我將首先 - 我們做得可能比大多數人更好的部分原因是我們多年來一直在使用的策略，這是本地對本地的。在雙重採購流行之前，我們一直專注於雙重採購。因此，這顯然幫助我們度過了難關。

But we're not immune. We felt it. Our team has done a great job, I think, scheduling their shops, working with suppliers. I think the use of our lean techniques and Kaizen are all things that have maybe helped us perform better than others.

但我們也不能倖免。我們感覺到了。我認為我們的團隊做得很好，安排他們的商店，與供應商合作。我認為使用我們的精益技術和改善可能幫助我們表現得比其他人更好。

If I was to characterize supply chain going forward, I would -- let's take the chips out of it for a second. It has stabilized. And in our forecast period coming up, FY '23, we're going to see slow gradual improvement. I wouldn't characterize that we're going to be back to normal by the end of FY '23, but making a small improvement, which will be good as in this year, it was more of a struggle for the whole year.

如果我要描述未來的供應鏈，我會 - 讓我們先把籌碼拿出來。它已經穩定下來。在我們即將到來的預測期內，即 23 財年，我們將看到緩慢的逐步改善。我不會說我們將在 23 財年末恢復正常，但會做出一點小小的改進，這會像今年一樣好，這對全年來說更像是一場鬥爭。

But chips is a different story. We're fortunate we're maybe not quite as chip dependent. Obviously, our OEM customers are, but certainly, our Aerospace business, Motion Systems, in particular, those two businesses have a fair amount of electrical -- electronic content. And that one, we're not forecasting really any improvement.

但薯片是另一回事。幸運的是，我們可能不太依賴芯片。顯然，我們的 OEM 客戶是，但可以肯定的是，我們的航空航天業務，尤其是運動系統，這兩個業務擁有相當數量的電氣 - 電子內容。而那個，我們並沒有預測真正的任何改進。

We've done an awful lot of work with our engineering team qualifying alternative suppliers, alternative materials across the board. And a lot of credit goes to them. We've been able to be very nimble and agile with expanding our available materials and supplies to satisfy demand. And we did that on chips, but chips is still a struggle. And for FY '23, we're not forecasting any help on chips. I think it will take beyond that time period to get better.

我們已經與我們的工程團隊進行了大量工作，以全面確定替代供應商和替代材料。很多功勞歸於他們。我們已經能夠非常靈活和敏捷地擴展我們可用的材料和供應以滿足需求。我們在芯片上做到了這一點，但芯片仍然是一場鬥爭。對於 23 財年，我們預計不會對芯片有任何幫助。我認為需要超過那個時間才能變得更好。

Yes. Tom, I would just add, working capital -- working capital as a focus. We talk about it every week. Our teams are very dedicated to it and really did a fantastic job in Q4.

是的。湯姆，我只想補充一點，營運資本——營運資本是重點。我們每週都會談論它。我們的團隊對此非常投入，並且在第四季度確實做得非常出色。

Clearly, must have confidence in supply chain to be able to have working capital improve like that.

顯然，必須對供應鏈有信心才能使營運資金如此改善。

But yes, I just wanted to clarify on guidance, the 2% to 5% organic guidance, is that -- I would imagine that just based on pricing you did this year alone, you'd probably have a few points of price in there. But can you clarify on that, please?

但是，是的，我只是想澄清一下指導，即 2% 到 5% 的有機指導，是不是——我想僅根據你今年所做的定價，你可能會有幾個價格點.但是你能澄清一下嗎？

Scott, you broke up about midway there, but I think you were asking about the guidance. You're probably asking volume versus price, is that your question?

斯科特，你在中途分手了，但我想你是在問指導。你可能問的是數量與價格，這是你的問題嗎？

That's correct, Tom. Sorry if I break up.

沒錯，湯姆。如果我分手了對不起。

Okay. All right. So as you know, we don't get into segmenting price for all the commercial reasons and the downfalls and pitfalls of doing it. I just suffice it to say as we go from that 5.5% the first half to 2% in the second half, that volume is going to mimic that. And probably when we look at a volume standpoint, Aerospace is going to be fine all year, good organic growth. Organic growth actually expands in the second half versus the first half. But on the Industrial side, the second half will be weaker for all the things that we see out in the world.

好的。好的。如您所知，我們不會出於所有商業原因以及這樣做的失敗和陷阱而進行分段價格。我只想說，當我們從上半年的 5.5% 到下半年的 2% 時，這個數量將模仿這一點。也許當我們從數量的角度來看，航空航天全年都會很好，有機增長良好。與上半年相比，下半年的有機增長實際上有所擴大。但在工業方面，下半年我們在世界上看到的所有事情都會變得更弱。

And so somewhere in our Q3 and we will probably get to flat volume and slightly negative, somewhere in that time period. So we do -- that is in our forecast period.

因此，在我們第三季度的某個地方，我們可能會在那個時間段的某個地方達到平穩的成交量和略微負值。所以我們這樣做了——那是在我們的預測期內。

It comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

它來自斯蒂芬沃爾克曼與傑富瑞的路線。

I'm wondering maybe somewhat on the same topic here. Presumably, despite the fact that you've really done a great job with margins and incrementals, I'm guessing there's still been some sort of productivity headwinds from these supplier kind of issues. And I'm wondering if that's true and if maybe you can ballpark what sort of headwind you've seen?

我想知道這裡可能有點同一個話題。據推測，儘管您在利潤和增量方面確實做得很好，但我猜這些供應商類型的問題仍然存在某種生產力逆風。我想知道這是不是真的，如果你能大致了解你所看到的逆風是什麼？

Yes, Steve, it's Tom. It's really hard to do that, to give that kind of that detail -- and just you're right, it's in there. We had to overcome it. We overcame it with all the things we were doing, the supply chain, Win Strategy, pricing, et cetera, but it's really hard to quantify. It will be something that will gradually help us as we go into this year. But as I mentioned, we're projecting gradual improvement, not some big step change in the supply chain improvement.

是的，史蒂夫，是湯姆。很難做到這一點，給出那種細節——你是對的，它就在那裡。我們必須克服它。我們通過我們正在做的所有事情克服了它，供應鏈、贏戰略、定價等等，但這真的很難量化。隨著我們進入今年，它將逐漸幫助我們。但正如我所提到的，我們正在計劃逐步改進，而不是在供應鏈改進方面做出重大改變。

Got it. Okay. I guess what I'm trying to think about this is that if supply chain were to normalize, and it doesn't sound like that's really totally your view. But if it were, my guess is that the incremental margins would be kind of higher than what you've laid out.

知道了。好的。我想我想要考慮的是，如果供應鏈正常化，這聽起來並不完全是你的觀點。但如果是這樣的話，我的猜測是增量利潤會比你設定的要高一些。

Well, certainly, it would help us. I mean the incrementals in the guide are pretty respectable. North America is at around numbers [30%], international is at a decremental upper 20s and aerospace in the mid-20s.

嗯，當然，它會幫助我們。我的意思是指南中的增量是相當可觀的。北美的數量約為 [30%]，國際處於遞減的 20 多歲，而航空航天則處於 20 多歲的中期。

Recognize that Aerospace has a unique challenge this year as we compare it to the prior. Our mix shift is going to be much more commercial OE. We've got commercial OE growing 2x commercial MRO, which is what the exact inverse we had in FY '22. We had commercial MRO growing twice as what commercial OE. And I think everybody understands the difference in margins on MRO versus OE that. So that's probably the biggest headwind there, but it's still putting up mid-20s incrementals.

認識到今年航空航天面臨著獨特的挑戰，因為我們將其與往年進行了比較。我們的混合轉變將更加商業化 OE。我們的商業 OE 增長了 2 倍商業 MRO，這與我們在 22 財年的情況正好相反。我們的商業 MRO 增長是商業 OE 的兩倍。而且我認為每個人都了解 MRO 與 OE 的利潤率差異。所以這可能是那裡最大的逆風，但它仍然在 20 年代中期出現增量。

But to your point, Steve, if we were to end up having even quicker supply chain improvements, yes, that's a potential upside for us, a potential upside for us.

但就你的觀點而言，史蒂夫，如果我們最終能夠更快地改善供應鏈，是的，這對我們來說是一個潛在的好處，對我們來說是一個潛在的好處。

Super. And then just on the final one on supply chain is just we do hear Hydraulics as a bottleneck for a lot of the customers that we speak with still. And I don't know whether they're just using the wrong supplier or whether that's kind of an area of issue. But are there opportunities for kind of share gains here if you're able to manage this more effectively?

極好的。然後就在供應鏈的最後一個環節，我們確實聽說液壓系統仍然是我們與之交談的許多客戶的瓶頸。而且我不知道他們是否只是使用了錯誤的供應商，或者這是否是一個問題領域。但是，如果您能夠更有效地管理這一點，這裡是否有機會獲得某種份額收益？

Again, Steve, it's Tom. Absolutely. And I would not want to pretend that we are lily white in that because we have opportunities because I know our customers listen to this, and that's one of the top things that they talk to me about.

再一次，史蒂夫，是湯姆。絕對地。我不想在這方面假裝我們是百合花，因為我們有機會，因為我知道我們的客戶會聽這個，這是他們與我談論的最重要的事情之一。

But we do have a distinct advantage in that were typically much better than our competitors when you look at lead times and our ability to deliver. So we always look at these times where it's kind of a struggle that we can become the go-to supplier of choice and have an opportunity. And once a customer makes that kind of commitment, it tends to be pretty sticky. They're not going to switch back after making the effort to switch to us. So again, that's a potential upside.

但我們確實有一個明顯的優勢，當您查看交貨時間和我們的交付能力時，這通常比我們的競爭對手要好得多。因此，我們總是看到這些時候，我們很難成為首選供應商並有機會。一旦客戶做出這樣的承諾，它往往會很粘人。在努力轉向我們之後，他們不會再轉回去。再說一次，這是一個潛在的好處。

It comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

它來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

A nice quarter. I guess my first question, Tom, can you just talk to your assumptions within North America and Industrial organic growth first half versus second half? And then just sort of your organic growth is below your targeted range of the 4% to 6%. So just your view on the macro? I mean, like how does Europe and China come out of this? And why is North America sort of more resilient?

一個不錯的季度。我想我的第一個問題，湯姆，你能談談你在北美和工業有機增長上半年與下半年的假設嗎？然後你的有機增長就低於你的 4% 到 6% 的目標範圍。所以只是你對宏觀的看法？我的意思是，歐洲和中國是如何擺脫這種局面的？為什麼北美更有彈性？

Yes, Jamie. So the forward section, remember, is over the cycle with an FY '27 target. And actually being 2% to 5% in the current climate with all the things I said at the beginning, quantitative tightening, high inflation, high interest rates, the dollar is growing. I mean, I actually think it's pretty remarkable that we're putting in that kind of a number, given all the conditions we're facing. So I'll make that comment on the 4% to 6%.

是的，傑米。因此，請記住，前面的部分已經完成了一個 27 財年目標的周期。實際上在當前環境下是 2% 到 5%，加上我一開始所說的一切，量化緊縮、高通脹、高利率，美元正在增長。我的意思是，考慮到我們面臨的所有條件，我實際上認為我們輸入這樣的數字是非常了不起的。因此，我將對 4% 到 6% 發表評論。

But specifically in North America, first half is more like 7.5%, second half goes to 1.5%. And international is first half 2.5% versus kind of a flat second half.

但特別是在北美，上半年更像是 7.5%，下半年達到 1.5%。國際市場上半年為 2.5%，而下半年則持平。

As far as end markets, I gave color around the secular ones, but if I just was to bucket and I don't want to read this giant list and bore everybody to tears. But we have a couple on the greater than 10%. And I would say this is pretty indicative as I describe across these the world.

就終端市場而言，我為世俗市場提供了色彩，但如果我只是想冒險，我不想閱讀這份龐大的清單，讓每個人都流淚。但我們有一對超過 10%。我想說，正如我在世界各地所描述的那樣，這非常具有指示性。

Obviously, some of the regions have a little bit more softness. In particular, and I think maybe before I go to that and some of your question around maybe the difference between regions. We see EMEA have probably -- and given everything that's going on there, between the war and energy challenges, being the region, in the second half is probably going to go negative. So that's in our guide.

顯然，某些區域的柔軟度要高一些。特別是，我想也許在我開始之前，你的一些問題可能是地區之間的差異。我們看到歐洲、中東和非洲可能已經——考慮到那裡正在發生的一切，在戰爭和能源挑戰之間，作為該地區，下半年可能會變得消極。這就是我們的指南。

Asia Pacific, we've got not weaker than North America, obviously, it's going to be in that low single digits throughout the whole year. But in the first half, we've got China somewhat flat; rest of Asia, mid-single digits in the second half. Both China and the rest of Asia gets in that low to mid-single digits. Recognizing that Asia gets a chance to compare to the current quarter and the last Q4, which was really a tough quarter given all the shutdowns.

亞太地區，我們的表現並不弱於北美，顯然，全年都將處於低個位數。但在上半年，我們的中國有點平淡；亞洲其他地區，下半年處於中個位數。中國和亞洲其他地區都在低到中個位數。認識到亞洲有機會與當前季度和上一季度進行比較，考慮到所有停工，這確實是一個艱難的季度。

So North America, more resilient on order entry. We've seen that in the last quarter or 2 as we've been projecting that trend for the whole year. And maybe I'll just stop there and see if you have any follow-up to that.

因此，北美在訂單輸入方面更具彈性。我們已經在上一季度或第二季度看到了這一點，因為我們一直在預測全年的趨勢。也許我會停下來看看你是否有任何後續行動。

No. I mean that's good color. I guess my only other question is I know you don't want to comment specifically on pricing and what your assumptions are. But to what degree should we think your pricing is fairly sticky so that if we do get into a deflationary market, that potentially is a positive for you? And I guess sort of what's embedded on price cost in the 2023 guide?

不，我的意思是顏色很好。我想我唯一的另一個問題是我知道你不想具體評論定價和你的假設是什麼。但是，我們應該在多大程度上認為您的定價相當粘性，以便如果我們確實進入通貨緊縮的市場，這可能對您有利？我猜想 2023 年指南中包含的價格成本是什麼？

Jamie, it's Lee. I would say as you look at pricing across the enterprise, it's fairly sticky. I mean there are material contracts on the OEM level that flex based on what's happening with commodities, but that's a small part of what's going on. So I'm not really concerned about a price roll back inside the company.

傑米，我是李。我想說的是，當您查看整個企業的定價時，它相當具有粘性。我的意思是 OEM 級別的實質性合同會根據商品的情況而有所不同，但這只是正在發生的事情的一小部分。所以我並不真正擔心公司內部的價格回落。

It comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

它來自與 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Looking at the splits, it looks like despite you have higher organic in the first half than the second half, the margin improvement in the first half and second half year-over-year is about the same, right? It's about 20 bps in the first half year-over-year and 10 bps in the second half.

從拆分來看，儘管上半年的有機收益高於下半年，但上半年和下半年的利潤率同比增長大致相同，對吧？上半年同比增長約 20 個基點，下半年增長 10 個基點。

So I'm just making sure we understand, despite the slower organic growth in the second half of the year, the margin performance year-over-year will be similar. And again, is that a price cost is inherently better in calendar first half of '23 than back half?

所以我只是確保我們明白，儘管下半年有機增長放緩，但同比的利潤率表現將相似。再說一次，在 23 年上半年的日曆中，價格成本本質上是否比下半年更好？

Dave, it's Tom. Yes, that's part of it. Yes, definitely, pricing was better in the second half of '22, which will help us as we go into '23. But I think we've proven in slowing top line areas to do pretty good at margin control. So I'd look for us to continue to do that.

戴夫，是湯姆。是的，這是其中的一部分。是的，毫無疑問，22 年下半年的定價更好，這將有助於我們進入 23 年。但我認為我們已經證明，在放慢頂線區域方面，我們在利潤控制方面做得很好。所以我希望我們繼續這樣做。

And then lastly, the comment about July. I think you said all of international orders went back to up, I think you said mid to upper single digit. Was that a year-over-year order comment for July for all of international? And if you can give us a little more color on that would be great.

最後，關於七月的評論。我想你說所有的國際訂單都回升了，我想你說的是中上位數。對於所有國際公司來說，這是 7 月份的同比訂單評論嗎？如果你能給我們更多的顏色，那就太好了。

Yes. David, thank you for -- this is Tom again. Thank you for asking because it allows me to clarify.

是的。大衛，謝謝你——我又是湯姆。謝謝你的提問，因為它讓我澄清。

So it's just a 1 month, so it's a 1/12, it will be July versus July. So it's not our typical 3/12, which is why I don't typically quote that number, but given coming off the negative 3/12 in international.

所以這只是 1 個月，所以是 1/12，這將是 7 月與 7 月的對比。所以這不是我們典型的 3/12，這就是為什麼我通常不引用這個數字，而是考慮到國際上的負 3/12。

Of course, when you have to forecast into a new calendar year, we look for every single piece of data we can get our hands on. And that was a nice indicator for us because we saw really all 3 regions. Latin America held up well in Q4, but Latin America continued to do well in July. But we had both EMEA and Asia turn back positive in July. It's 1 month. So it's not a long data trend, but it was a good indicator.

當然，當您必須預測新的日曆年時，我們會尋找我們可以獲得的每一條數據。這對我們來說是一個很好的指標，因為我們真的看到了所有 3 個區域。拉丁美洲在第四季度表現良好，但拉丁美洲在 7 月份繼續表現良好。但我們在 7 月份看到歐洲、中東和非洲和亞洲都轉正。 1個月了。所以這不是一個長期的數據趨勢，但它是一個很好的指標。

I think China getting better in July from June to a little bit of reopening. I don't think would surprise people. But that Europe reaccelerated in July. I'll leave it at this. Any color on that? Is that distribution? Is it OEM? I think that's a pleasant surprise that Europe reaccelerated last month.

我認為中國在 7 月份從 6 月份開始好轉，到了一點點重新開放。我認為不會讓人們感到驚訝。但那個歐洲在 7 月再次加速。我會把它留在這裡。上面有什麼顏色嗎？那是分佈嗎？是代工嗎？我認為歐洲上個月重新加速是一個令人驚喜的驚喜。

Yes, 1 month, I don't have my typical segmented market type of comparison, but I would just say it will be across both distribution and OEM.

是的，1 個月，我沒有典型的細分市場類型比較，但我只想說它將跨越分銷和 OEM。

David, I would just add on the margin walk throughout the year, currency does come into effect that a little bit, right? So we have a little bit more headwind in the first half and it kind of normalizes as we get to the second half just because the comps become a little bit easier on those currency changes. I'm just looking at the margin walk, it's a very similar progression Q1 to Q4 versus what we did this year as well.

大衛，我只想增加全年的保證金，貨幣確實有點生效，對吧？所以我們在上半年遇到了更多的逆風，隨著我們進入下半年，它有點正常化，只是因為這些貨幣變化的補償變得更容易了。我只是在看邊際走動，這是與我們今年所做的非常相似的第一季度到第四季度的進展。

It comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

它來自 Nigel Coe 與 Wolfe Research 的系列。

So it does feel like July was a bit stronger than June or certainly in the second quarter, second quarter calendar, of course. I mean you're very broad and you touch pretty much every single part of the industrial economy.

所以感覺 7 月比 6 月要強一些，或者肯定是在第二季度，當然是第二季度日曆。我的意思是你的範圍很廣，你幾乎觸及了工業經濟的每一個部分。

I'd just be curious if you could give you a perspective on what's going on outside of China, obviously, which is a bit more of its own beat. But -- so maybe Tom, you might want to take that.

我只是很好奇你能否給你一個關於中國以外正在發生的事情的看法，顯然，這更像是它自己的節奏。但是 - 所以也許湯姆，你可能想接受那個。

But just in terms of the financing for Meggitt, it looks like we've got about $6 billion already financed on the balance sheet. I'm just wondering, just based on whatever cash you got on collateral with the derivative contract, et cetera, how much more is to be raised to get to that $9.9 billion?

但就美捷特的融資而言，我們似乎已經在資產負債表上獲得了大約 60 億美元的融資。我只是想知道，僅根據您在衍生品合約等方面獲得的抵押品所獲得的現金，還需要籌集多少資金才能達到 99 億美元？

Yes. Nigel, this is Todd. We are complete with the financing program for that. The one element of that is that $2 billion delayed draw term loan that we will pull once we get more clarity on the close date. So that's really the last piece and it's already set. We just have to wait until we get some clarity on close.

是的。奈傑爾，這是托德。我們已經完成了這方面的融資計劃。其中一個因素是 20 億美元的延遲提取定期貸款，一旦我們對關閉日期更加明確，我們將取消這些貸款。所以這真的是最後一塊，它已經設置好了。我們只需要等到我們得到一些明確的結論。

So the $42 million in 1Q, so we can analyze that, add on the $2 billion for the delayed draw and that gets us in the ballpark of the current interest rates for -- interest expense for Meggitt.

所以第一季度的 4200 萬美元，所以我們可以分析，加上延遲抽獎的 20 億美元，這讓我們在當前利率的範圍內 - 美捷特的利息費用。

Yes. Nigel, it's a good question. What our plan on that is to come back to you once we close and we've got some clarity on what the rates happen to be. We will lay that all out for you in very good detail.

是的。奈傑爾，這是個好問題。我們的計劃是在我們關閉後回复您，並且我們已經清楚地了解了費率。我們將非常詳細地為您說明一切。

It comes from Joseph O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

它來自富國銀行的 Joseph O'Dea。

I wanted to start on backlog. I imagine it was flat to up a little bit sequentially. I think running at something like 2x what would be normal levels relative to demand. And so as you're thinking about the upcoming year, what do you expect in terms of backlog trends? Do you think this is something that sort of normalizes relative to demand over the course of the year? Or based on what you're hearing from customers that they still want to order kind of well in advance and just generally how you're preparing for that.

我想從積壓開始。我想它是平的，有點順序上升。我認為以相對於需求而言正常水平的 2 倍運行。因此，當您考慮即將到來的一年時，您對積壓趨勢有何期望？您是否認為這會在一年中相對於需求正常化？或者根據您從客戶那裡聽到的他們仍然希望提前訂購的內容，以及您通常是如何為此做準備的。

Joe, it's Tom. So backlog is up significantly year-over-year, about 21%, backlog was $7.8 billion on June 30. But sequentially, it was pretty flat.

喬，是湯姆。因此，積壓量同比顯著增加，約為 21%，6 月 30 日的積壓量為 78 億美元。但按順序來看，它相當平緩。

And so I think this is kind of the peak in the backlog. I would expect it to moderate to the years slowly declining, probably not getting back to what I would call normal backlogs in the course of the whole year, but starting to moderate.

所以我認為這是積壓的高峰。我預計它會緩和到緩慢下降的年份，可能不會在全年恢復到我所說的正常積壓，而是開始緩和。

And this backlog, in addition to our order entry patterns, the secular trends, the portfolio changes. These are all part of why we felt good about the 2% to 5% organic growth guide.

而這個積壓，除了我們的訂單輸入模式，長期趨勢，投資組合的變化。這些都是我們對 2% 到 5% 的有機增長指南感到滿意的部分原因。

Got it. And then related to market share gains, do you have any perspective on what you think you achieved in terms of share gains last fiscal year? I imagine North America was a bigger opportunity with presumably some of the tougher supply chain dynamic in that region. So I don't know specifically if you could comment on that as well and really all of this related to the industrial businesses.

知道了。然後與市場份額增長有關，您對上一財年的份額增長有何看法？我想北美是一個更大的機會，大概是該地區一些更艱難的供應鏈動態。因此，我不知道您是否也可以對此發表評論，並且實際上所有這些都與工業業務有關。

Joe, it's Tom again. So I would characterize it as, yes, we did gain some share. Calculating market share by region and all that is really difficult. There's -- you don't get the degree of accuracy.

喬，又是湯姆。所以我將其描述為，是的，我們確實獲得了一些份額。按地區計算市場份額真的很困難。有 - 你沒有得到準確度。

We track share by account. And obviously, I'm not going to quote any accounts here. But that's where you can actually get good accuracy because you know what potential is for an account and you know what your sales is into it. And you have good gauge R&R and repeatability of that.

我們按帳戶跟踪份額。顯然，我不會在這裡引用任何帳戶。但這就是您實際上可以獲得良好準確性的地方，因為您知道一個帳戶的潛力是什麼，並且您知道您的銷售額是多少。你有很好的 R&R 和可重複性。

So we've seen where we've been able to make some improvements, not in every single account, but on some accounts. And so I would use that as an indicator that we had made some progress, but obviously, more to come.

所以我們已經看到了我們能夠在哪些方面進行改進，不是在每個帳戶上，而是在某些帳戶上。所以我會用它作為我們已經取得一些進展的指標，但顯然，還會有更多進展。

Carmen, just -- I think we maybe have time for one more question.

卡門，只是——我想我們可能還有時間再問一個問題。

It comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

它來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe just the first quick one around the free cash flow margin assumption. And you had a very strong sort of 14% margin in the year just finished. As you look at the sort of the current business ex Meggitt, how should we think about that free cash flow margin in the upcoming fiscal year? Should that sort of move up slightly with operating margins? Or do you get a big sort of hit still from working cap in the first half or something?

也許只是圍繞自由現金流邊際假設的第一個快速假設。在剛剛結束的一年裡，你的利潤率非常高，達到了 14%。當您查看 Meggitt 之前的當前業務時，我們應該如何考慮下一個財政年度的自由現金流利潤率？這種情況是否應該隨著營業利潤率略有上升？或者你是否在上半場仍然受到工作上限的影響？

Julian, this is Todd. It's a great question. We obviously are very proud of our cash flow performance that we just finished in FY '22. We do see a little upside of that in FY '23. Obviously, the growth isn't as great as the growth period that came through. The teams continue to manage working capital. So I think you'll see a slight increase in that.

朱利安，這是托德。這是一個很好的問題。我們顯然對我們剛剛在 22 財年完成的現金流表現感到非常自豪。我們確實在 23 財年看到了這一點。顯然，增長不如所經歷的成長期那麼大。團隊繼續管理營運資金。所以我認為你會看到這個數字略有增加。

We'll give you a little bit more color once we get some of the Meggitt details on what it does for the whole company. Obviously, on the integration here, the stub here, there will be some pressure on the total company free cash flow just as we get through the acquisition. But core company will be very similar to what we did last year with a little upside.

一旦我們獲得有關 Meggitt 對整個公司的作用的一些詳細信息，我們將為您提供更多色彩。顯然，在這裡的整合，這裡的存根，就像我們完成收購一樣，公司的總自由現金流會有一些壓力。但核心公司將與我們去年所做的非常相似，但有一點上行空間。

That's good to hear. And then a quick follow-up. Aerospace guidance, I think, Tom, you had said that the organic sales growth assumption for Aerospace is higher growth in the second half, I think, year-on-year than the first half. Any color around that? Is it to do with sort of easing supply chain constraints in commercial OE, lumpiness in military? And then commercial MRO, I think you said up high single, which may look low versus what some other companies have talked about for the next year or two.

聽起來還不錯。然後快速跟進。航空航天指導，我認為，湯姆，您曾說過航空航天的有機銷售增長假設是下半年的增長高於上半年，同比增長。周圍有顏色嗎？是否與緩解商業 OE 中的供應鏈限制和軍事上的混亂有關？然後是商業 MRO，我認為您說的是高單價，與其他公司在未來一兩年所談論的相比，這可能看起來很低。

Yes. So maybe I'll just give you the splits on -- not the split but the segments. So our guide assumes a mid-teens commercial OEM, a high single-digit decline in military OEM. That's again the pull forward and the provisioning on the F135 and the 135 engine. High single digits on commercial MRO. Remember, that's comparing against what we just did last year, which was a plus 36%. So that's -- you get this really big difficult comp on the commercial MRO, but it continues to grow. And then military MRO, positive mid-teens. Do that math, those 4 segment gets you to 6.5%.

是的。所以也許我只會給你拆分——不是拆分，而是細分。因此，我們的指南假設了一個十幾歲的商業 OEM，軍事 OEM 出現了高個位數的下降。這又是 F135 和 135 發動機的前導和配置。商業 MRO 的高個位數。請記住，這與我們去年所做的相比，增加了 36%。所以這就是——你在商業 MRO 上得到了這個非常困難的組合，但它還在繼續增長。然後是軍事 MRO，積極的青少年。算一下，這 4 個部分讓你達到 6.5%。

This first half, second half is just kind of the normal pattern. Aerospace tends to be stronger growth in the second half. You'll have some of the military MRO probably hitting stronger in the second half as well.

上半場，下半場只是一種正常的模式。航空航天下半年趨於強勁增長。下半場你可能還會有一些軍事 MRO 的表現更強。

All right. This concludes our FY '22 Q4 earnings webcast. We really do appreciate all your support, all your interest in Parker. Like we said, we will do another one of these shortly once we get through close. Robin and Jeff are obviously here all day if you have any further questions. Once again, I thank everyone for joining, and we will talk to you soon.

好的。我們的 22 財年第四季度收益網絡廣播到此結束。我們非常感謝您的所有支持，以及您對派克的所有興趣。就像我們說的那樣，一旦我們完成關閉，我們將很快再做一次。如果您還有其他問題，羅賓和傑夫顯然整天都在這裡。再次感謝大家的加入，我們將很快與您交談。

With that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。