派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation's Fiscal Year 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Webcast and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加派克漢尼汾公司 2022 財年第三季財報網路廣播與電話會議。 （操作員說明）

And now it is my pleasure to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在，我很高興將會議交給今天的第一位發言人，財務長 Todd Leombruno。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, Paul. Good morning and thanks to everyone for joining. This is our fiscal year 2022 Q3 earnings release webcast. As Paul said, this is Todd Leombruno. I am Chief Financial Officer. And as usual, with me today are Tom Williams, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President.

謝謝你，保羅。早安，感謝大家的加入。這是我們 2022 財年第三季財報發布的網路廣播。正如保羅所說，這是托德·萊姆布魯諾。我是財務長。和往常一樣，今天和我在一起的還有我們的董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；以及我們的副主席兼總裁李班克斯 (Lee Banks)。

Today, we are going to discuss forward-looking projections and also, we will discuss some non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 in our deck details our disclosure statement on these areas. Actual results may differ from our projections due to uncertainties listed in these forward-looking statements, and those are detailed in all of our SEC filings. Reconciliations for all the non-GAAP measures, along with this presentation, have been made available under the Investors section on parker.com, and those will remain available for 1 year.

今天，我們將討論前瞻性預測，也將討論一些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的投影片 2 詳細介紹了我們在這些領域的揭露聲明。由於這些前瞻性聲明中列出的不確定性，實際結果可能與我們的預測有所不同，這些不確定性在我們所有的 SEC 文件中都有詳細說明。所有非 GAAP 指標的調整表以及本簡報已在 Parker.com 的投資者部分提供，這些內容將保留一年。

I'd like to remind everyone before we begin that we are still bound by the requirements of the U.K. Takeover Code in respect to discussing certain details of the pending Meggitt transaction.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，在討論未決 Meggitt 交易的某些細節時，我們仍然受到英國收購法要求的約束。

As for the call today, as usual, we'll start with Tom discussing some key items for the quarter. I'll follow up with some additional color on our Q3 results and detail the increase to our guide that we issued this morning with all of our press releases. We'll finish the call with any questions you have for Tom, Lee or myself.

至於今天的電話會議，像往常一樣，我們將首先讓湯姆討論本季的一些關鍵事項。我將跟進我們第三季度的業績，並詳細介紹我們今天早上在所有新聞稿中發布的指南的增加情況。如果您向湯姆、李或我自己提出任何問題，我們將結束通話。

And with that, we are now on Slide 3. And Tom, I'll hand it over to you.

至此，我們現在進入投影片 3。湯姆，我將把它交給你。

Thank you, Todd. Welcome, everybody, to the call today. Appreciate your participation.

謝謝你，托德。歡迎大家今天來電。感謝您的參與。

It was a record quarter, record quarter for the quarter and record quarter for all time in a lot of key metrics and was delivered against very difficult circumstances that required exceptional agility and performance by our global team.

在許多關鍵指標上，這是創紀錄的季度、本季度創紀錄的季度和有史以來創紀錄的季度，並且是在非常困難的情況下完成的，這需要我們的全球團隊具有卓越的敏捷性和績效。

I know we all lived through it, but just as a refresher of what happened in Q3, we had the Omicron spikes, which drove absenteeism; we had supply chain challenges; inflation; China COVID shutdowns; and the Ukraine war. So just your basic average quarter. Obviously, I'm being sarcastic, but obviously, not ideal conditions. And what was remarkable against that backdrop, we turned in a number of all-time records, as I mentioned. And my thanks to the entire team for this great performance and resilience in these times.

我知道我們都經歷過這一切，但正如第三季度發生的情況一樣，我們遇到了 Omicron 高峰，這導致缺勤率增加；我們面臨供應鏈挑戰；通貨膨脹;中國因新冠疫情關閉；和烏克蘭戰爭。所以只是你的基本平均季度。顯然，我是在諷刺，但顯然，這不是理想的條件。正如我所提到的，在這種背景下值得注意的是，我們提交了許多歷史記錄。我感謝整個團隊在這些時期的出色表現和韌性。

So a couple of comments about the quarter on Slide 3. Safety is our top priority. We continue to be top quartile when you look at our performance on safety incidents versus our peers. We're doing that through our high-performance teams, which is how we run the factories and the warehouses, and a culture of Kaizen. And as I've mentioned before to shareholders, there's a very strong linkage between safety, engagement and business performance. If you look at those 3 metrics for us over the last 7 years, they're all going in the same direction.

關於幻燈片 3 上的季度的一些評論。安全是我們的首要任務。與同行相比，我們在安全事故方面的表現仍然名列前茅。我們透過我們的高績效團隊來做到這一點，這就是我們營運工廠和倉庫的方式以及 Kaizen 文化。正如我之前向股東提到的，安全、敬業度和業務績效之間有著非常緊密的連結。如果你看看我們過去 7 年的這 3 個指標，你會發現它們都朝著同一個方向發展。

Our sales growth was 9% versus the prior year. Organic was a positive 11%, so that was very nice. We eclipsed $4 billion in sales for the first time in the history of the company, first time over $4 billion in a quarter. That was a great milestone. We had strong demand against virtually all of our end markets. Segment operating margin was 20.3% as reported or 22.7% adjusted. That was 130 basis points better than prior year. So expanded margins, 130 basis points in the kind of conditions that I started the call with, just remarkable performance.

我們的銷售額比前一年增長了 9%。有機率為正 11%，所以這非常好。我們的銷售額在公司歷史上首次超過 40 億美元，一個季度首次超過 40 億美元。這是一個偉大的里程碑。我們幾乎所有終端市場都有強勁的需求。報告所述部門營業利益率為 20.3%，調整後為 22.7%。比去年好 130 個基點。利潤率如此擴大，在我開始通話時的情況下，利潤率增加了 130 個基點，表現非常出色。

We increased the quarterly dividend 29%. That is the largest increase in our history and clearly signals the confidence that we have about Parker for the future. We have some temporary things, which we highlighted in the future slides here, that Todd will go over about the Q4 impact related to China COVID shutdowns. The comment here I just want to make is that that's a temporary thing. How long it goes, it's hard to predict, but we expect to come up to full production sometime in Q1, and that will make up this delta that we're experiencing to Q4 during the course of the rest of FY '23.

我們將季度股息提高了 29%。這是我們史上最大的增幅，清楚地表明我們對 Parker 的未來充滿信心。我們有一些臨時的事情，我們在未來的幻燈片中強調了這些，托德將討論與中國新冠疫情關閉相關的第四季度影響。我在這裡只想發表評論，這是暫時的。很難預測會持續多久，但我們預計將在第一季的某個時候達到全面生產，這將彌補我們在 23 財年剩餘時間到第四季所經歷的增量。

And maybe to clarify, if you're looking at our -- what we're talking about China versus what some of our peers are, we only have 60 days left in our fiscal year. So it's very hard for us to make that up in rest of the fiscal year, but we clearly feel confident that we'll make it up in FY '23.

也許需要澄清的是，如果你看看我們正在談論的中國與我們的一些同行的情況，我們的財政年度只剩下 60 天了。因此，我們很難在本財年的剩餘時間彌補這一損失，但我們顯然有信心在 23 財年彌補這一損失。

If you look at these results, it's the Win Strategy, as the portfolio changes, it's the fact that the company is now much longer cycle and a better performing company.

如果你看一下這些結果，你會發現這就是獲勝策略，隨著投資組合的變化，事實是該公司現在的周期更長，而且業績更好。

On Slide 4, what drives us is really 3 things: living up to our purpose, which is enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow; being great generators and deployers of cash; and being a top-quartile performer. And I want to give you one example on Slide 5, probably our purpose in action related to clean technologies. As the world migrates to a more carbon-friendly environment and applications, we're going to be there to help. One very topical and current area given the inflation pressures in the Russia-Ukraine war is the topic of energy and the availability of energy and inflation of energy prices around the world.

在投影片 4 上，驅動我們的其實是三件事：實現我們的目標，實現工程突破，帶來更美好的明天；成為偉大的現金創造者和部署者；並成為前四分之一的表演者。我想在投影片 5 上給大家一個例子，這可能是我們與清潔技術相關的行動目的。隨著世界轉向更碳友善的環境和應用，我們將隨時提供協助。鑑於俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭中的通膨壓力，目前一個非常熱門的話題是能源以及全球能源供應和能源價格通膨的話題。

And as the world moves from brown sources of energy to greener sources of energy, it's pretty clear that we're going to need to use all shades of color between brown to green as we walk to that cleaner tomorrow. And clearly, a big part of that bridge to that cleaner tomorrow is going to be natural gas. And we wanted to talk about really natural gas, where we play in it, and just how we're going to be able to help society, our purpose and action here.

隨著世界從棕色能源轉向綠色能源，很明顯，當我們走向更清潔的明天時，我們將需要使用棕色到綠色之間的所有顏色。顯然，通往更清潔的明天的橋樑的很大一部分將是天然氣。我們想談論真正的天然氣，我們在其中發揮作用，以及我們將如何幫助社會，我們的目的和行動。

So upstream -- there's 4 main components here: upstream, midstream, liquefaction, storage and regasification and power generation. On the bottom of this slide, you see the 6 Parker technologies that we utilize to go into there and a couple of anecdotal comments for each one. So in upstream, we've got fluid power controls for the rig equipment. We have instrumentation. Valves and controls in there as well. And midstream is primarily gas filtration. On the liquefaction, storage and regasification, that will be our pumps, our valves, ceiling technologies, glucan vance. And this is all under cryogenic conditions, so ultra-low temperatures. And then power gen, I'm going to cover on the next slide.

所以上游——這裡有 4 個主要組成部分：上游、中游、液化、儲存和再氣化以及發電。在這張投影片的底部，您可以看到我們用來探討的 6 項 Parker 技術以及針對每項技術的一些軼事評論。因此，在上游，我們為鑽機設備配備了流體動力控制裝置。我們有儀器。那裡還有閥門和控制裝置。中游主要是氣體過濾。在液化、儲存和再氣化方面，這將是我們的泵浦、閥門、天花板技術、葡聚醣萬斯。而這一切都是在低溫條件下進行的，所以是超低溫。然後是發電，我將在下一張投影片上介紹。

So a lot of what we do for society on compressed natural gas and liquid natural gas is going to be directly applicable as the world moves to hydrogen, which is on Slide 6. So that last value chain as part of natural gas that incurred was the power generation piece. And clearly, what's obvious here and what's really helpful for us, and I think our customers, is all the technologies that we have on CNG and LNG are directly applicable into hydrogen. You can see in the middle of the page, the applications, those 5 bullets we have in the middle.

因此，隨著世界轉向氫，我們在壓縮天然氣和液態天然氣方面為社會所做的許多事情將直接適用，這在幻燈片 6 上。因此，作為天然氣一部分的最後一個價值鍊是發電件。顯然，這裡顯而易見的、對我們以及我認為我們的客戶真正有幫助的是，我們在 CNG 和 LNG 上擁有的所有技術都可以直接應用於氫氣。您可以在頁面中間看到應用程序，以及中間的 5 個項目符號。

On the right-hand side are our various technologies and similar technologies for both fuel sources. With the exception of our sealing technology, will need to be even more sophisticated and which we're working on as we speak to be able to seal hydrogen, which is a smaller molecule and more difficult to seal. But we'll be a big part of this bridge with natural gas, and we'll be there to help when society's ready for hydrogen as well.

右側是我們針對兩種燃料來源的各種技術和類似技術。除了我們的密封技術之外，我們還需要更複雜的技術，正如我們所說，我們正在研究能夠密封氫，氫是一種較小的分子，更難密封。但我們將成為這座與天然氣的橋樑的重要組成部分，當社會也準備好使用氫氣時，我們將在那裡提供幫助。

If you go to Slide 7, which happens to be one of my favorite slides. And while you may be tired of me showing this slide, I think it's the simplest way for shareholders and people that maybe aren't familiar with us to understand how different the company is over the last 7 years. It's been our people, which is really their engagement, their ownership, those top-quartile results that we see from our people driving top-quartile performance. So in the portfolio, and I would just summarize it, we're going to -- when we close Meggitt, we will deploy $20 billion of money into acquisitions, reshaping the portfolio. We will have doubled engineered materials, doubled aerospace and doubled our filtration businesses over this period of time, dramatically reshaping the company and the future of the company.

如果你看投影片 7，它剛好是我最喜歡的投影片之一。雖然您可能厭倦了我展示這張投影片，但我認為對於股東和可能不熟悉我們的人來說，這是了解公司在過去 7 年中有多麼不同的最簡單方法。這是我們的員工，這實際上是他們的參與、他們的主人翁精神，以及我們從我們的員工身上看到的那些推動最高四分之一績效的最高四分之一的結果。因此，在投資組合中，我只想總結一下，當我們關閉 Meggitt 時，我們將部署 200 億美元的資金進行收購，從而重塑投資組合。在此期間，我們的工程材料、航空航太和過濾業務將翻一番，從而大大重塑公司和公司的未來。

And then on the strategy side, you have the Win Strategy 2.0 and 3.0 now over this period of time. And you've seen what it's done to margins. EPS are just phenomenal. This is high into the right type of metrics on this page, which is hard to do. I can assure you that. So hopefully, you see from this progress, in addition to the alignment we have with the positive secular trends in aerospace, digital electrification and clean tech, that our business is poised for a very promising future over the next 5 years.

然後在策略方面，這段時間有獲勝策略 2.0 和 3.0。您已經看到了它對利潤率的影響。 EPS 非常驚人。這是該頁面上正確類型的指標的高度，這是很難做到的。我可以向你保證。因此，希望您能從這一進展中看到，除了我們與航空航天、數位電氣化和清潔技術領域的積極長期趨勢保持一致之外，我們的業務還將在未來5 年內迎來一個非常光明的未來。

I wanted to close my opening comments with giving you an update on Slide 8 with where we stand with the regulatory clearances regarding to the Meggitt transaction. So on the antitrust side, we have already cleared without any conditions from the following countries: so Australia, China, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Turkey. Brazil has given us unconditional approval subject to their usual 15-day waiting period, so that's in good shape. We've received conditional antitrust clearance from the European Commission, subject to our commitment to divest of our aircraft mill and brake business, which is in process. And then on the foreign investment side of things, the transaction has been cleared by Australia, Denmark, Germany and Italy. So probably the simplest way for me to describe it, what remains and what's left are antitrust clearances for the U.S. and the U.K. and the national security clearances for the U.K. and France.

我想以幻燈片 8 的最新情況來結束我的開場評論，介紹我們在美捷特交易的監管許可方面的立場。因此，在反壟斷方面，我們已經無條件地從以下國家清除了：澳洲、中國、沙烏地阿拉伯、新加坡和土耳其。巴西已無條件批准我們，但通常需要 15 天的等待期，因此情況良好。我們已獲得歐盟委員會的有條件反壟斷許可，但我們承諾剝離正在進行中的飛機製造和煞車業務。在外國投資方面，該交易已獲得澳洲、丹麥、德國和義大利的批准。因此，對我來說可能最簡單的描述方式是，剩下的就是美國和英國的反壟斷許可以及英國和法國的國家安全許可。

So we're making good progress, and we continue to expect the transaction will close sometime during Q3 of this calendar year. And we're very excited. We're going to put 2 great companies together. We're going to double the size of aerospace, and we're going to have great synergies as we work together. And we're going to do all this at the beginning of an aerospace recovery, so the timing is perfect.

因此，我們正在取得良好進展，我們仍然預計交易將在今年第三季的某個時候完成。我們非常興奮。我們將把兩家很棒的公司合併在一起。我們將把航空航太的規模擴大一倍，當我們共同努力時，我們將產生巨大的協同效應。我們將在航空航天復甦開始時完成所有這些工作，因此時機非常完美。

With that, I'll turn it over to Todd to give you more details on the quarter.

接下來，我會將其轉交給托德，向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細資訊。

Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'm going to start on Slide 10. This is just a year-over-year comparison of our Q3 financial results. And Tom mentioned this, really all the credit goes to our team members, really demonstrating stellar execution to generate a number of record results in a quarter that, as Tom mentioned, had a lot of disruptions.

好的。謝謝，湯姆。我將從幻燈片 10 開始。這只是我們第三季財務表現的同比比較。湯姆提到了這一點，實際上所有的功勞都歸功於我們的團隊成員，他們真正展示了出色的執行力，在一個季度內產生了許多創紀錄的結果，正如湯姆提到的，有很多幹擾。

Sales increased 9%. We did eclipse $4 billion for the first time in our history. Organic growth was 11%. Currency was a drag at 2 points. So that's how we get to the 9% growth.

銷售額成長 9%。我們歷史上首次突破了 40 億美元。有機成長率為 11%。貨幣匯率拖累2個百分點。這就是我們實現 9% 成長的方式。

I just want to make a comment. Our backlog levels are unbelievably strong. They're up 25% from this time last year, and over 90% of our end markets are in growing state. We continue to see all regions perform extremely well. Commercial aerospace and really all of the North American markets are really the most robust, but it is broad-based across the company.

我只想發表評論。我們的積壓數量令人難以置信。比去年同期成長了 25%，我們 90% 以上的終端市場處於成長狀態。我們繼續看到所有地區的表現都非常出色。商業航空航太和所有北美市場確實是最強勁的，但它在整個公司範圍內都有廣泛的基礎。

Tom mentioned this, but we did expand segment operating margins, 130 basis points in the quarter. We finished at 22.7% on an adjusted basis. And I'll go through the segments in a couple of slides, but really, every segment, every region contributed to this performance. The inflationary and supply chain issues, they are persistent. They remain. Yet our team members are really showing their resiliency as we leverage the Win Strategy to really achieve our goal, which is top-quartile performance.

湯姆提到了這一點，但我們確實擴大了部門營業利潤率，本季提高了 130 個基點。調整後我們的成績為 22.7%。我將在幾張投影片中詳細介紹各個部分，但實際上，每個部分、每個地區都對這項績效做出了貢獻。通貨膨脹和供應鏈問題是持續的。他們留下來了。然而，當我們利用獲勝策略真正實現我們的目標（即一流的績效）時，我們的團隊成員確實表現出了他們的韌性。

When you look at EBITDA, our EBITDA margins expanded 70 basis points. We finished at 22.6 for the quarter. And net income -- adjusted net income grew by 16% in the quarter, and we finished at $630 million or 15.4% return on sales. Net income grew 16% versus prior year. Very, very impressive.

當您查看 EBITDA 時，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 70 個基點。本季我們的成績為 22.6。淨利潤－調整後的淨利潤在本季度增長了 16%，最終銷售回報率達到 6.3 億美元，即 15.4%。淨利比上年增長 16%。非常非常令人印象深刻。

I think we've mentioned this multiple times before, but Tom was talking about Meggitt. The currency deal contingent hedge we have, pound to dollar, requires mark-to-market accounting treatment. Due to what's going on with currency rates and really the strengthening of the dollar versus the pound, we did record a pretax noncash charge in the quarter of $247 million, and that really accounts for the major difference between the as-reported and the adjusted numbers this quarter.

我想我們之前已經多次提到這一點，但湯姆談論的是梅吉特。我們的貨幣交易或有避險（英鎊兌美元）需要以市值計價的會計處理。由於匯率的變化以及美元兌英鎊的走強，我們確實在本季度記錄了 2.47 億美元的稅前非現金費用，這確實是報告數據與調整後數據之間的主要差異本季。

When you look at EPS, we did $4.83. That is $0.71 greater than prior year. That's up 17% from the $4.12 we did last year. So just really solid performance across the board. And again, I can't thank our team enough.

如果你看看 EPS，我們的收益是 4.83 美元。這比去年增加了 0.71 美元。這比我們去年的 4.12 美元上漲了 17%。因此，全面的表現確實非常可靠。再次，我對我們的團隊感激不盡。

If you go to Slide 11, what we did here is we just put a graph together that displays really the elements of that $0.71 or 17% increase in EPS. And again, once again, this quarter, we continue to outperform. It's really driven by volume. Of course, the margin expansion that Tom and I talked about. But really, what I like about this is it really displays our solid operating performance. The majority of the change, all of it is showing up in segment operating income. $0.75 of the $0.71 increase is all segment operating income. If you look at everything else, that's the $0.04 of a drag, but really proud that we were able to not only improve EPS but do it at the operating line.

如果你看投影片 11，我們在這裡所做的就是將一張圖表放在一起，真正顯示 EPS 成長 0.71 美元或 17% 的要素。本季度，我們再次表現出色。它確實是由數量驅動的。當然，是湯姆和我談到的利潤擴張。但實際上，我喜歡它的是它真正展示了我們穩健的營運績效。大部分變動都體現在分部營業收入。增加的 0.71 美元中的 0.75 美元是所有部門的營業收入。如果你看看其他一切，你會發現這只是 0.04 美元的拖累，但我們不僅能夠提高每股收益，而且能夠在營運線上做到這一點，這讓我們感到非常自豪。

If we jump into Slide 12, this is our segment performance. Growth continues to be broad-based across every segment and every region. Demand is -- continues to be robust. Our orders are up 14%. The team has taken prudent actions to manage the inflationary environment. And that really has positioned us to continue to maintain margin-neutral on all of these price cost issues that are fairly well documented across the world. That and the operating execution that I talked about really allowed us to improve margins in every segment.

如果我們跳到投影片 12，這就是我們的片段表現。每個細分市場和每個地區都繼續實現廣泛的成長。需求持續強勁。我們的訂單增加了 14%。該團隊已採取審慎行動來管理通膨環境。這確實使我們能夠繼續在所有這些價格成本問題上保持利潤中性，這些問題在世界各地都有充分記錄。這以及我談到的營運執行確實使我們能夠提高每個細分市場的利潤率。

If you look at our incrementals, 37%, we've talked about this a couple of times, but we still are going up against pandemic-level comps. We had $25 million of discretionary savings in Q3. If you account for that, incrementals would have been 44% for the quarter. So just really solid incremental performance. It really highlights the power of the Win Strategy, and it demonstrates the transformation that we spoke about at our Investor Day just at March 8.

如果你看看我們的增量，37%，我們已經討論過幾次了，但我們仍然在對抗疫情等級的比較。第三季我們有 2500 萬美元的可自由支配儲蓄。如果考慮到這一點，本季的增量將為 44%。所以，這只是非常可靠的增量效能。它確實凸顯了獲勝策略的力量，也展示了我們在 3 月 8 日投資者日談到的轉型。

If you jump into the segments, North America surpassed sales of $2 billion, organic growth was almost 15% versus prior year, and adjusted operating margins expanded by 100 basis points and reached 22.9% for the quarter. That led the company this quarter, right, which is really impressive. North America has certainly had challenges across the supply chain. It's great to see them rebound and lead the company again.

如果你深入細分市場，北美地區的銷售額超過了 20 億美元，有機成長比去年同期近 15%，調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 100 個基點，本季達到 22.9%。這引領了公司本季的發展，對吧，這確實令人印象深刻。北美的整個供應鏈確實面臨挑戰。很高興看到他們反彈並再次領導公司。

Their incrementals improved in the quarter, and they're the best incrementals they generated all fiscal year. And even more importantly, order rates accelerated to 23% and backlog, of course, grew even stronger. Just very great execution, broad-based demand in the North American segment.

他們的增量在本季度有所改善，並且是整個財年中最好的增量。更重要的是，訂單率加速至 23%，而積壓訂單當然也變得更強勁。北美市場的執行力非常出色，需求廣泛。

If we move to international, sales were about $1.4 billion. Organic growth there is almost 9% from prior year. EMEA and Latin America combined was mid-teens positive, and Asia Pacific was low single digit, but all regions are positive in the international segment. Again, here, operating margins expanded 110 basis points in international and finished really at a high level of 22.7%. Really satisfied to see the consistent performance our international teams continue to post. And we've talked about this. It's been a long-term effort for a long time. And I'm really happy that we're seeing the results out of our international segment. Order rates in international are plus 9%.

如果我們轉向國際市場，銷售額約為 14 億美元。有機成長較上年增長近 9%。歐洲、中東和非洲和拉丁美洲的綜合成長率為十幾歲左右，亞太地區的成長率為低個位數，但所有地區的國際市場均呈正成長。國際業務的營業利潤率再次擴大了 110 個基點，最終達到 22.7% 的高水準。看到我們的國際團隊繼續保持穩定的表現，我感到非常滿意。我們已經討論過這一點。這是很長時間以來的長期努力。我真的很高興我們看到了國際業務的成果。國際訂單率加 9%。

If we look at aerospace, aerospace continues to rebound. Sales were $632 million. Organic growth was almost 6%. Very strong demand in our commercial markets, both OEM and MRO. And operating margins, great expansion here, 250 basis points of improvement, came in at 21.9%. And I just want to remind everyone, with this great margin performance, we are still operating at below pre-COVID at baseline, when it comes to sales.

如果我們看看航空航天，航空航天繼續反彈。銷售額為 6.32 億美元。有機增長接近 6%。我們的商業市場（OEM 和 MRO）需求非常強勁。營業利益率大幅擴張，提高了 250 個基點，達到 21.9%。我只是想提醒大家，儘管利潤率如此出色，但就銷售而言，我們的營運水準仍低於新冠疫情前的基線。

Orders in aerospace are minus 4%. But if you remember, we talked about this last quarter. There were a few large military orders in the prior period that really just kind of make a tough comp in aerospace. If you exclude those items, aerospace orders were positive 20. And again, aerospace dollars in the quarter are the largest dollar level that we've had in the last 4 quarters. So it just really gives us confidence in the aerospace recovery.

航空航太領域的訂單為-4%。但如果你還記得的話，我們在上個季度討論過這個問題。前期有一些大型軍事訂單，確實在航空航太領域構成了艱難的競爭。如果排除這些項目，航空航天訂單為正 20。同樣，本季的航空航天美元是過去 4 個季度中最高的美元水準。所以這確實讓我們對航空航太產業的復甦充滿信心。

Really proud to be able to share these results across all of our segments. And like Tom says, it really demonstrates the power of the performance and portfolio change that a lot of -- all of our team members have been working on for some time.

能夠在我們所有的部門分享這些成果，我感到非常自豪。正如湯姆所說，它確實展示了我們所有團隊成員已經努力了一段時間的績效和投資組合變革的力量。

So if we go to Slide 13, cash flow generation, right? Tom talked about being great generators and great deployers of cash. Year-to-date, we've exceeded $1.5 billion in cash flow from operations. That's 13.3% of sales. Our free cash flow is about $1.4 billion. That's almost 12% of sales. And our year-to-date conversion is 117%. We continue to still manage this diligently in a growth environment, right, which is not the easiest thing to do.

那麼，如果我們轉到投影片 13，現金流的產生，對吧？湯姆談到了成為偉大的現金創造者和偉大的部署者。今年迄今為止，我們的營運現金流已超過 15 億美元。佔銷售額的 13.3%。我們的自由現金流約為 14 億美元。這幾乎佔銷售額的 12%。我們今年迄今的轉換率為 117%。我們繼續在成長環境中努力管理這一點，對吧，這不是最容易做的事情。

If you look at year-to-date, working capital is a use of cash of about 3%. Versus last year, it was a source of cash of about 1.2%. Q4 is our strongest quarter for cash. If you followed us for a long time, you know that. We still continue to forecast mid-teens CFOA. And obviously, greater than 100% conversion when it comes to cash flow conversion.

如果你看看今年迄今為止的情況，你會發現營運資金約佔 3% 的現金使用。與去年相比，現金來源約為 1.2%。第四季是我們現金最強勁的季度。如果您關注我們很長時間，您就會知道這一點。我們仍繼續預測 CFOA 為 15 左右。顯然，現金流轉換率超過 100%。

Tom called out the 29% dividend increase that we announced. This really reflects the confidence we have and our ability to generate cash, not just in the short term but in the long term as we look out to achieving those FY '27 goals.

湯姆對我們宣布的股息增加 29% 表示讚賞。這確實反映了我們的信心和產生現金的能力，不僅是在短期，而且是在長期，因為我們希望實現 27 財年的目標。

Just a few notes on leverage. Our gross debt to EBITDA was 2.8x. Our net debt was 2.6x. But if you remember, we have about $2.5 billion of cash in escrow to pay for the Meggitt transaction. We are classifying that as restricted cash. If you exclude that $2.5 billion, our net debt to EBITDA would be 1.8x.

關於槓桿的一些注意事項。我們的 EBITDA 總債務是 2.8 倍。我們的淨債務是 2.6 倍。但如果您還記得的話，我們有大約 25 億美元的託管現金用於支付 Meggitt 交易。我們將其歸類為受限現金。如果排除這 25 億美元，我們的 EBITDA 淨負債將為 1.8 倍。

Now let's look at the guidance. If I go to Slide 14, on the guidance, we obviously announced an increase to our guidance this morning. I'm going to give it to you on an as-reported and adjusted basis. We're raising full year EPS by $0.10. Last quarter, we were projecting $18.05 per share. We are now at $18.15 per share at the midpoint. We've also narrowed the range to $0.15 on either side.

現在讓我們看看指南。如果我看幻燈片 14，在指導上，我們今天早上顯然宣布增加指導。我將根據報告和調整後的情況將其提供給您。我們將全年每股收益提高 0.10 美元。上季度，我們預計每股 18.05 美元。我們現在的中間價為每股 18.15 美元。我們也將兩邊的區間縮小至 0.15 美元。

Sales growth for the full year is forecasted to be about 10%. We did increase the organic guide 50 basis points from 10.5% to 11%, so 11% full year organic growth. And while currency remains a headwind in the quarter, for the full year, we think it will be about a 1% drag to the top line. Just a reminder on currency, for our guide, we are using March 31 rates to calculate our estimate.

預計全年銷售成長10%左右。我們確實將有機指導值從 10.5% 提高了 50 個基點至 11%，因此全年有機成長 11%。雖然貨幣在本季仍然是一個阻力，但對於全年來說，我們認為這將對營收產生約 1% 的拖累。只是關於貨幣的提醒，對於我們的指南，我們使用 3 月 31 日的匯率來計算我們的估算。

If you look at the segment operating margins, full year guidance is 22.1%. I just want to call out, if you look at that versus last year's actuals, that's a 100-basis-point increase in segment operating margins. So I'm glad to be able to speak to that. The corporate G&A interest and other is really expected to be $947 million on an as-reported basis and $459 million on an adjusted basis. And the adjusted -- we've kind of -- the adjustments, we've detailed out for everybody. The acquired intangible asset amortization is $315 million. Business, realignment charges are $20 million. LORD cost to achieve is $5 million. And of course, we closed our Russian operations. That is a charge of $20 million. If you're curious, that was $13 million in the segment line and $7 million below the segment operating income line.

如果您查看該部門的營業利潤率，全年指導值為 22.1%。我只是想指出，如果你比較去年的實際情況，你會發現分部營業利潤率增加了 100 個基點。所以我很高興能夠談論這一點。以報告計算，公司一般管理費用利息及其他實際預期為 9.47 億美元，按調整後計算為 4.59 億美元。我們已經為每個人詳細介紹了調整後的調整。收購的無形資產攤銷為3.15億美元。業務調整費用為 2000 萬美元。 Lord 的實現成本為 500 萬美元。當然，我們關閉了俄羅斯業務。這是2000萬美元的費用。如果你好奇的話，那是分部線內的 1,300 萬美元，分公司營業收入線下的 700 萬美元。

Meggitt acquisition-related expenses that we've incurred to date is $84 million. And finally, that deal contingent hedge that I mentioned, on a full year basis, it's $396 million. We will continue to adjust transaction-related expenses as they are incurred, all the way up until we get to close.

迄今為止，我們已發生的與 Meggitt 收購相關的費用為 8,400 萬美元。最後，我提到的交易或有對沖，全年為 3.96 億美元。我們將繼續調整發生的交易相關費用，直到我們結束為止。

And a note on tax. Our full year tax rate is down a little bit. We expect that to be about 21.5% for the full year. And when you do all the math, for us, that equates to an EPS -- adjusted EPS guide for Q4 of $4.60.

還有關於稅的說明。我們的全年稅率略有下降。我們預計全年約為 21.5%。當你進行所有數學計算時，對我們來說，這相當於第四季度調整後 EPS 指導值為 4.60 美元。

This quarter, we actually put another slide in here. It's a bridge on our guidance reconciliation. The Q3 performance that we had, we really outperformed our guide significantly. We beat our guide by $0.29. We've rolled that into our full year guide here. And based on really strong backlog and order rates, in North America specifically, we have increased our Q4 North American organic growth guide by 300 basis points versus what we thought last quarter. And that really is generating about $0.08 of segment operating income in Q4.

本季度，我們實際上在這裡放了另一張幻燈片。這是我們指導協調的一座橋樑。我們第三季的表現確實明顯優於我們的指南。我們比導遊高出 0.29 美元。我們已將其納入我們的全年指南中。基於非常強勁的積壓和訂單率，特別是在北美，我們將第四季度北美有機成長指南比我們上季度的預期提高了 300 個基點。這確實在第四季度產生了約 0.08 美元的部門營業收入。

Tom has mentioned this, but the COVID-related shutdowns in China are a near-term temporary headwind for us in Q4. Obviously, Q4 is the end of our fiscal year here. We are estimating that to impact Q4 sales by $100 million. We're using a 40% decremental on this $100 million, which is greater than what we normally operate at, simply because a number of our facilities are fully shut down. So we are confident that the facilities that are operating in China and those others in the international segment are going to be able to perform, but we're using a 40% decremental on just that $100 million of near-term headwind. That equates to a $0.24 EPS headwind going into Q4. All the other items net to a slight EPS reduction of $0.03, and that really is the walk on how we get to our new guide of $18.15.

湯姆提到了這一點，但中國與新冠病毒相關的停工對我們第四季來說是短期的暫時阻力。顯然，第四季是我們財年的結束。我們預計這將影響第四季銷售額 1 億美元。我們對這 1 億美元進行了 40% 的遞減，這比我們通常的營運水準要高，因為我們的一些設施已經完全關閉。因此，我們相信在中國運營的設施以及國際市場的其他設施將能夠正常運轉，但我們針對 1 億美元的近期逆風採取了 40% 的減額。這相當於進入第四季每股收益 0.24 美元。所有其他項目的每股盈餘淨值略有下降 0.03 美元，這確實是我們如何達到 18.15 美元的新指南的過程。

So before I turn it back over to Tom, I just want to make sure everyone saw the press release that we issued on Tuesday, with Robin announcing her retirement plans after what will be almost 2 decades with Parker Hannifin. And Robin has really been a driving force within the company, really helping us to transform our M&A processes, our long-range planning and, of course, serving as our voice and our biggest fan with the investment community. She has put forth timeless effort to champion of Pure W, which is our first business resource group that is focusing on developing women leaders, and that will leave a lasting imprint on Parker.

因此，在我將其轉回湯姆之前，我只想確保每個人都看到了我們週二發布的新聞稿，羅賓宣布了她在帕克漢尼芬工作近 20 年後的退休計劃。羅賓確實是公司內部的推動力量，確實幫助我們改變了併購流程、長期規劃，當然，他也擔任了我們在投資界的代言人和最大的粉絲。她為支持 Pure W 付出了不懈的努力，這是我們第一個專注於培養女性領導者的商業資源組織，這將為 Parker 留下持久的印記。

So Robin, all of us here, we couldn't be happier for you, for your husband, Scott, as you transition into the best phase, the next phase of your life, and we thank you very much.

所以羅賓，我們所有人，當你過渡到生命中最好的階段、下一個階段時，我們為你和你的丈夫斯科特感到高興，我們非常感謝你。

So I'm going to just pile on while we have Robin blushing and embarrass her even more. She's just done a great job. I've had a chance to work with her for 20 years. If I think about her deal-making skills and what she did when she led M&A, her ability to finance all these transactions, which isn't the easiest thing. And like Todd said, the Investor Relations and you've all experienced it, her ability to be the top spokesperson for the company, just an outstanding leader. We're going to miss her.

所以我會在羅賓臉紅的時候繼續說下去，讓她更難堪。她剛剛做得很好。我有機會和她一起工作了 20 年。如果我考慮到她的交易技巧以及她在領導併購時所做的事情，以及她為所有這些交易提供資金的能力，這並不是最容易的事情。正如托德所說，投資者關係部和你們都經歷過，她有能力成為公司的最高發言人，只是一位傑出的領導者。我們會想念她的。

But thankfully, she's given us lots of lead time here, and she's not leaving until the end of the year. And we'll get every ounce out of her that we possibly can on these next several months. She's nodding her head in agreement.

但值得慶幸的是，她在這裡給了我們很多準備時間，而且她要到年底才會離開。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將盡可能地從她身上榨取每一分錢。她點頭同意。

So the last slide, Slide 16. We have a highly engaged team. They're the people behind these results. Their ownership, their engagement that drove the -- is driving our success. You saw the EPS and the margin expansion, just phenomenal, speaks to the Win Strategy, speaks to the portfolio changes. We are a longer-cycle, more resilient company. And we've got great alignment to the secular trends that I referred to earlier. And we're going to help the world as it moves to the clean technologies to be more sustainable.

最後一張投影片，投影片 16。我們有一個高度敬業的團隊。他們就是這些結果背後的人。他們的所有權和參與推動了我們的成功。你看到了每股收益和利潤率的擴張，這是驚人的，說明了獲勝策略，說明了投資組合的變化。我們是一家週期較長、彈性較強的公司。我們與我之前提到的長期趨勢非常一致。我們將幫助世界轉向清潔技術，使其更永續。

We gave you a new guide -- new feedback where we're headed for FY '27 with continued improvement across the board and really a transformed company with a bright promising future. Again, my thanks to everybody, the global team, just a fantastic quarter, fantastic year-to-date. And I'm going to turn it back to Paul to start the Q&A.

我們為您提供了新的指南——新的回饋，我們將在 27 財年全面持續改進，成為一家真正轉型後擁有光明前景的公司。我再次感謝大家，感謝全球團隊，這是一個出色的季度，今年迄今也非常出色。我將把它轉回給保羅來開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Congrats, Robin. I did not see the announcement. You will be missed. And we appreciate your help over the years.

恭喜，羅賓。我沒有看到公告。我們會想念你的。我們感謝您多年來的幫助。

I wanted to talk a little bit about your results. I mean it doesn't seem like supply chains hurt you guys really at all. I mean you had 11% core growth in a 0 GDP world. So was there a tangible impact to supply chains on being able to get stuff out the door in the quarter? It sure didn't seem like it could have been much.

我想談談你的結果。我的意思是，供應鏈似乎並沒有真正傷害你們。我的意思是，在 GDP 為零的世界中，核心成長率為 11%。那麼，本季供應鏈的出貨是否受到了實質影響？看起來肯定不會太多。

Scott, it's Tom. Supply chain is still a challenge. I would characterize it, if I take chips out -- I'll come back to chips in a second -- that has stabilized, but stabilized still at a fairly inefficient level. It really hasn't shown much improvement over the last several quarters nor are we forecasting that. Obviously, we're not forecasting very far out here for the rest of our fiscal year. But I think it's going to be a challenge as we go into the calendar -- rest of the calendar year.

斯科特，是湯姆。供應鏈仍然是一個挑戰。我會描述它，如果我把晶片拿出來——我會在一秒鐘內回到晶片——它已經穩定了，但仍然穩定在一個相當低效的水平。在過去的幾個季度中，它確實沒有顯示出太大的改善，我們也沒有預測到這一點。顯然，我們對本財年剩餘時間的預測不會太遠。但我認為，當我們進入日曆時——日曆年的剩餘時間——這將是一個挑戰。

What we did see worsen was chips, and that continues to be a challenge. But I think why you've seen us perform maybe better than most has been our ability to -- we're local for local. Our supply chain has been built around that for years. And while we continue to want to localize even more, we kind of had a running start against a lot of this. We've been active on trying to increase tool sourcing. And our engineers -- we spent a fair amount of time with our engineers working to develop alternative materials that would be qualified with our customers. Our materials are either more readily available, especially in the chipset, qualifying alternative chips. And some of our engineered materials products or some of the chemicals, et cetera, were difficult to get. We've been qualifying alternative materials there. So I would put saying doing all of the above and just an awful lot of elbow grease and work in the factories, in the warehouses to make this work. This is not the easiest environment, but the team did a great job with it.

我們確實看到惡化的是晶片，這仍然是一個挑戰。但我認為，為什麼​​您看到我們的表現可能比大多數公司更好，因為我們有能力——我們以本地為中心。多年來，我們的供應鏈一直圍繞著這一點建立。雖然我們仍然希望進一步在地化，但我們在很多方面都已經開始了。我們一直在積極嘗試增加工具採購。我們的工程師 - 我們花了相當多的時間與我們的工程師一起開發符合客戶要求的替代材料。我們的材料要么更容易獲得，特別是在晶片組中，合格的替代晶片。我們的一些工程材料產品或一些化學品等很難獲得。我們一直在那裡對替代材料進行鑑定。因此，我想說的是，完成上述所有工作，並在工廠、倉庫中付出大量的苦力和工作，才能使這項工作成功。這不是最簡單的環境，但團隊做得很好。

Yes. It certainly seems so. The example you gave on natural gas to hydrogen was kind of interesting. And I -- it begs the question of, does the competitive landscape change as you go to the more complex hydrogen applications? I mean my understanding is that it's -- the specs have to be pretty darn tight, and hydrogen, it's a highly volatile material. But does the competitive landscape change at all? Or is it -- do you think the competitors will be there -- the similar competitors would be there?

是的。看起來確實如此。你給的天然氣到氫氣的例子很有趣。我──這就引出了一個問題，當你轉向更複雜的氫氣應用時，競爭格局是否會改變？我的意思是，我的理解是——規格必須非常嚴格，而氫是一種高度揮發性的材料。但競爭格局有什麼變化嗎？或者是——你認為競爭對手會在那裡——類似的競爭對手會在那裡嗎？

Scott, it's Tom again. I think it does change a little bit. I think it thins out because I think there's fewer people that can do the kind of things that we can do in that area. The fact that we've already developed a lot of these cryogenic solutions puts us in a running start with that. Yes, we had to look at hydrogen embrittlement to make sure that there's material compatibility, which we're doing.

斯科特，又是湯姆。我認為它確實改變了一點。我認為它會變得稀疏，因為我認為能夠做我們在該領域可以做的事情的人越來越少。事實上，我們已經開發了許多此類低溫解決方案，這使我們處於一個良好的開端。是的，我們必須研究氫脆，以確保材料的兼容性，我們正在這樣做。

And then our -- the advancement we've had in engineering materials and the fact that we have that technology in addition to all the other technologies, because the big -- like I mentioned, the big challenge with hydrogen is sealing a molecule that's much smaller and prone to leaking and, to a point, volatile. And so we're doing investments as we speak. We just looked at that early this week. We had a clean tech review with all of our groups. And we're investing in that right now so we can be ready for when that does come to market.

然後我們——我們在工程材料方面取得的進步，以及我們除了所有其他技術之外還擁有這項技術的事實，因為像我提到的那樣，氫的巨大挑戰是密封一個分子較小且容易洩漏，並且在某種程度上具有揮發性。所以我們現在正在做投資。我們本週早些時候剛剛看到了這一點。我們與所有團隊進行了清潔技術審查。我們現在正在對此進行投資，以便我們可以為該產品上市做好準備。

Your next question is from Mig Dobre with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird。

Robin, all the best. Congrats. Tom, I want to go back to your comments on North America. You really kind of highlighted this geography as accelerating maybe relative to the others. And I'm wondering, what are you seeing that's differentiated or special here? And let's leave the China COVID lockdowns to the side because that part is pretty obvious. And I'm curious, when we're looking at the sequential acceleration and order intake, are you actually seeing better volumes? Or is this just a function of higher pricing given everything that's happening on the commodity side?

羅賓，一切順利。恭喜。湯姆，我想回到你對北美的評論。你確實強調了這個地理位置相對於其他地理位置可能正在加速。我想知道，您在這裡看到了什麼差異化或特別之處？讓我們把中國新冠疫情封鎖放在一邊，因為這部分是非常明顯的。我很好奇，當我們觀察連續加速和訂單量時，您是否真的看到了更好的銷售量？或者這只是考慮到大宗商品方面發生的一切而導致定價上漲的結果？

Well, I think in North America -- Mig, it's Tom. I think North America has gotten on top of the horse, so to speak. The supply chain challenges we had were the most pronounced in North America. They had more work to do; more work to do on logistics, on dual sourcing, on qualifying alternative materials versus the other regions. And I think you see the benefit of some time and good work by all the teams, which was evidenced in their MROSs improving as you go through the course of the year and then having their best ROS quarter to date and leading really all the segments. So North America clearly has gotten on top of that, made a lot of progress to that vantage point.

嗯，我想在北美──米格，是湯姆。可以這麼說，我認為北美已經處於領先地位。我們面臨的供應鏈挑戰在北美最為明顯。他們還有更多工作要做；與其他地區相比，在物流、雙重採購、合格替代材料方面還有更多工作要做。我認為你會看到所有團隊花時間和出色工作所帶來的好處，這在他們的MROS 不斷改善中得到了證明，隨著你經歷這一年的過程，然後擁有迄今為止最好的ROS 季度並真正領先所有細分市場。因此，北美顯然已經超越了這一點，在這一有利位置上取得了巨大進展。

There is good volume improvement really across the world. Obviously, I think most of that volume improvement has been in North America and in aerospace. Because aerospace, with their long-term contracts, were somewhat shielded from the inflation pressures there. So they benefit from the volume as well.

世界各地的銷量確實有了很大的提高。顯然，我認為銷量的成長大部分發生在北美和航空航太領域。因為航空航太業簽訂了長期合同，在一定程度上免受通貨膨脹壓力的影響。因此，他們也從數量中受益。

Okay. And then my follow-up, I'm curious, as you're looking at your international business, maybe Europe specifically, are you sort of seeing any change in the pace of business, customer confidence or whatever you want to call it as a result of this situation in Russia and Ukraine? How did April progress for you maybe relative to March? If you can comment on that.

好的。然後我的後續行動，我很好奇，當你審視你的國際業務時，也許是特別是歐洲，你是否看到業務節奏、客戶信心或任何你想稱之為的任何變化？俄羅斯和烏克蘭的這種情況會造成什麼結果？相對於三月，四月對你來說進展如何？如果你能對此發表評論。

Well, on EMEA, I would say -- again, it's Tom. It's probably too soon to know for sure how the whole rush Ukraine process is going to play through. Obviously, Russia, and our hearts go out to the Ukrainian people. And we've done an awful lot of our philanthropic work has been to help all the people that are involved in there. But it's small sales for us. It's immaterial from a -- of course, the human toll is huge, but sales tolls is immaterial.

嗯，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我會再說一遍，是湯姆。現在確定整個緊急烏克蘭進程將如何進行可能還為時過早。顯然，俄羅斯和我們的心與烏克蘭人民同在。我們做了很多慈善工作來幫助所有參與其中的人。但這對我們來說銷量很小。當然，人員傷亡是巨大的，但銷售損失並不重要。

But our orders for -- if I look at Q3 versus Q2, were roughly the same. They were in the low teens. I'm talking about EMEA. We do forecast sales -- sales, you break out the international piece in EMEA, was 13% for Q3. We are forecasting it to soften in Q4 to 5%. So we do anticipate some moderation there. Some of it is comp, some of it is based on what we're seeing with the orders, and that's all baked into our guide. But I think to fully understand what the second derivative is of all the Ukrainian war, I think we're going to need more time to see how that plays through.

但如果我看看第三季和第二季度，我們的訂單大致相同。他們才十幾歲。我說的是歐洲、中東和非洲地區。我們確實預測了第三季的銷售額——歐洲、中東和非洲地區的國際銷售額為 13%。我們預計第四季將放緩至 5%。因此，我們確實預計那裡會有所緩和。其中一些是補償，一些是基於我們在訂單中看到的內容，這些都已納入我們的指南中。但我認為，要充分理解所有烏克蘭戰爭的二階導數是什麼，我認為我們將需要更多時間來看看它是如何運作的。

Your next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Jeff Sprague。

Congrats, Robin. Just a couple Meggitt-related questions, if I could. First, Todd, on the FX hedge, are you completely economically neutral at close on this? Obviously, the dollar has strengthened a lot against the pound, which impacts the ultimate out-of-pocket. If you could just clarify that. And also, any color on whether or not your funding costs to ultimately consummate the deal have moved materially here?

恭喜，羅賓。如果可以的話，我只想問幾個與美捷特相關的問題。首先，托德，關於外匯對沖，您在經濟上完全保持中立嗎？顯然，美元兌英鎊大幅走強，影響了最終的自付費用。如果你能澄清一下就好了。另外，您最終完成交易的融資成本是否發生了重大變化？

Yes. Jeff, thanks for that question. On the deal contingent hedge, what we did is we locked in a pound-dollar rate. I think we did that in September time period. Obviously, a lot has changed across the world and the economic landscape since then.

是的。傑夫，謝謝你提出這個問題。在交易或有避險方面，我們所做的是鎖定英鎊兌美元匯率。我想我們是在九月期間做到的。顯然，自那時以來，世界各地和經濟格局都發生了很大變化。

We still are confident that, that was the right thing to do. It has made our certain fund process as we go through the transaction, certainly much clearer and much easier. Most recently, and you've seen the pound to the dollar, really the pound weakened and the dollar strengthened. That has created these accounting transactions that we have to record each quarter.

我們仍然相信，這是正確的做法。它使我們在進行交易時的特定資金流程變得更加清晰和容易。最近，您已經看到英鎊兌美元，實際上英鎊走弱，美元走強。這就產生了我們必須每季記錄的會計交易。

So from an economic value standpoint, we're working through that right now. Obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces with the valuation of the purchase price accounting of all that stuff. But we're confident that we're going to like the results that we have.

因此，從經濟價值的角度來看，我們現在正在解決這個問題。顯然，所有這些東西的購買價格核算的估值都有很多變化。但我們有信心我們會喜歡我們所得到的結果。

As far as the financing goes, we've done a lot of work on this with our team, with our advisers on this. And really, what we found is the increasing interest rate environment is pretty much priced into the market. So just on a high level, the way we are attaching that is really based on our strong cash flows. We are just leaning towards more of a mix of serviceable debt on the transaction. So when you look at this compared to the last large deals that we've done, the financing plan is basically using the same methodology, and they're about the same costs in total.

就融資而言，我們與我們的團隊和顧問一起做了很多工作。事實上，我們發現利率上升的環境幾乎已經反映在市場中。因此，從高水準來看，我們的附加方式實際上是基於我們強勁的現金流。我們只是傾向於在交易中提供更多可償還債務的組合。因此，當你將其與我們最近完成的大型交易進行比較時，融資計劃基本上使用相同的方法，總成本大致相同。

So more to come on that, Jeff, but we feel good with where we're at in respect to financing and the pending transaction.

傑夫，還有更多的事情要做，但我們對融資和懸而未決的交易的進展感到滿意。

Great. And then what -- thanks for the color on the approvals and what remains. Would the U.K. national security be the longest pole in the tent here? Or should we think about the remaining items as roughly equivalent and on the same timeline?

偉大的。然後呢——感謝批准上的顏色以及剩下的內容。英國國家安全部門會是帳篷裡最長的桿子嗎？或者我們應該將其餘項目視為大致相同且在同一時間線上？

Jeff, it's Tom. It's hard to predict that. But we've had a lot of discussions with the U.K. government. There's a couple of tracks there. There's economic considerations, which are really the things we had at 2.7; the national security considerations that were in (inaudible) in a number of discussions with them. And then you have their antitrust process as well. And I can't predict who will go first, just that the list of who's in the outbox is increasing. And this all bodes well that we're getting closer to the end. And I think you'll see them probably all kind of go roughly in about the same time frame would be my guess.

傑夫，是湯姆。很難預測這一點。但我們與英國政府進行了許多討論。那裡有幾條軌道。還有經濟方面的考慮，這確實是我們在 2.7 時所考慮的；與他們進行的多次討論中（聽不清楚）的國家安全考慮。然後還有他們的反壟斷程序。我無法預測誰會先發，只是寄件箱中的名單正在增加。這一切都預示著我們離結局越來越近了。我想你會看到它們可能會在大約相同的時間範圍內發生，這是我的猜測。

Your next question is from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米庫克。

Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess, first, just a modeling question. It looks like the aerospace margins get a nice bump in the next quarter. So is there anything unusual driving that? Or I'm just trying to understand what that could potentially mean for the trajectory into 2023 as aerospace starts to improve. So that's my first question.

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。我想，首先，這只是一個建模問題。看起來航空航太的利潤率在下個季度會得到很好的提升。那麼駕駛過程中有什麼不尋常的地方嗎？或者我只是想了解隨著航空航太業開始改善，這對 2023 年的發展軌跡可能意味著什麼。這是我的第一個問題。

And then I guess my second question, again, very good organic growth. Tom, the market is very concerned about a slowdown, and people are using the R word. Just wondering if you could talk to how you think your portfolio could perform in a slowdown, or some of the market share gains. Are you getting market share? And could that -- and the pricing dynamics, could that help make your sales more resilient, assuming we're going into a downturn over the next 6 to 12 months?

然後我再次猜測我的第二個問題，非常好的有機成長。湯姆，市場非常擔心經濟放緩，人們正在使用“R”這個詞。只是想知道您是否可以談談您認為您的投資組合在經濟放緩或部分市場份額增長時的表現如何。您獲得市場佔有率了嗎？假設我們在未來 6 到 12 個月內陷入低迷，這以及定價動態是否可以幫助您的銷售更具彈性？

Jamie, it's Tom. So I'll start with the first one, the aero margins. Q4 is nationally our highest margin in aerospace, typically, based on shop visits and the exposure with the summer, et cetera, for aircraft and engines. And then also, it's been driven by the commercial MRO activity increasing as it's growing at the fastest rate. That happens to be our highest margins, which is why you see that performing like they do.

傑米，是湯姆。所以我將從第一個開始，即空氣動力裕度。第四季是我們在航空航太領域全國最高的利潤率，通常是根據飛機和發動機的車間參觀和夏季的曝光情況等得出的。此外，它是由商業 MRO 活動增加所推動的，因為它以最快的速度成長。這恰好是我們最高的利潤率，這就是為什麼你會看到我們的表現像他們一樣。

Now coming back to -- this question happens all the time as far as, well, how will Parker do during the next recession? And I'm hoping if you go to that slide that I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it's my favorite slide that shows the margin and EPS expansion. That has 2 notes of recessions: a pandemic and, of course, everything we're experiencing today all in it. And you've seen us move pretty much at a 45-degree angle. So I think you could, rest assured, that this team has proven its resilience to weather any recession. And we'll -- if it happens, we'll weather it the same way we have in the past.

現在回到這個問題，帕克在下一次經濟衰退期間會怎麼做？我希望如果你去看我在準備好的發言中提到的那張投影片，這是我最喜歡的顯示利潤率和每股盈餘擴張的幻燈片。這有兩個衰退的跡象：一場流行病，當然，還有我們今天所經歷的一切。您已經看到我們幾乎以 45 度角移動。因此，我認為您可以放心，這個團隊已經證明了其抵禦任何經濟衰退的能力。如果發生的話，我們會像過去一樣度過難關。

But I would argue to your point that the company is significantly different. In Investor Day, we went through the longer view of the company between the Win Strategy and how the portfolio has dramatically changed. Now we doubled the size of engineered materials, filtration and aerospace, and that's going to allow us to grow differently. And when we showed you that 5-year vision, if you -- those who maybe didn't see it, there was a mix of short, long and aftermarket. And when we get out to FY '27, I add up the long and aftermarket, it's roughly 85% of our sales mix. So that's going to have us operate much differently.

但我會同意你的觀點，即該公司有很大不同。在投資者日，我們從更長遠的角度審視了公司的獲勝策略和投資組合如何發生巨大變化。現在，我們將工程材料、過濾和航空航天的規模擴大了一倍，這將使我們能夠以不同的方式發展。當我們向您展示 5 年願景時，如果您——那些可能沒有看到它的人，就會發現短期、長期和售後市場的混合體。當我們進入 27 財年時，我將長期市場和售後市場加起來，它大約占我們銷售組合的 85%。因此，這將使我們的運作方式大不相同。

Now if you go to, say, the time, I don't care about 5 years. I'm worried about what's happened in the next 12 months or so. I think I would come back to our ability to perform is proven in good times and bad times. And we have the benefit of the beginning of our commercial aerospace recovery, which is going to help us. We have that linkage to the secular trends much more so than we have in the past, which, okay, they could get impact, and I'm talking about electrification, digital, aerospace and clean tech, but they're probably not going to get impacted the same as any of the traditional end markets.

現在如果你去，比方說，時間，我不在乎5年。我擔心未來 12 個月左右會發生什麼事。我想我會回到我們的表現能力，無論順境或逆境都得到了證明。我們受益於商業航空航太復甦的開始，這將對我們有所幫助。我們與長期趨勢的聯繫比過去更加緊密，好吧，它們可能會產生影響，我說的是電氣化、數位化、航空航天和清潔技術，但它們可能不會與任何傳統終端市場一樣受到影響。

We have Meggitt coming on board, so we get a lift from the acquisition just from an incremental revenue there. We're going to have the synergies, et cetera. And we have a company that is dramatically leaner or agile proven by what we've done the last 7 years. So we're ready -- the last quarter, I was being sarcastic when I was referring to it as a normal quarter. I think, if anything, we've proven to be very resilient team and the ability to be flexible, nimble and I think you'll see that going forward.

我們有美捷特加入，所以我們從收購中獲得的收益只是來自那裡的增量收入。我們將產生協同效應等等。我們過去 7 年所做的一切證明了我們公司的精簡程度和敏捷程度顯著提高。所以我們已經準備好了——上個季度，當我將其稱為正常季度時，我是在諷刺。我認為，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們已經被證明是一個非常有彈性的團隊，並且有能力變得靈活、敏捷，我想你們會看到這一點。

Okay. Congratulations, Robin. Thanks for all the help you've been fantastic.

好的。恭喜你，羅賓。感謝您提供的所有幫助，您真是太棒了。

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

Your next question is from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Best of luck, Robin. A quick question on the China getting back to full production in July. Can you just give us a little more color on your confidence in that? And then also I mean, historically, you've sort of gone through 3 12 pressure curves through the key markets. Obviously, the North American orders are strong. But I'm just curious, are there any areas that you're seeing the book-to-bill or the 3 12 pressure curves that you track that are starting to show those are some of the short-cycle businesses that maybe are showing a little bit of cracks? Or are we just not seeing any cracks anywhere in the North American market at this stage?

祝你好運，羅賓。關於中國在七月恢復全面生產的一個簡短問題。您能否給我們更多一點關於您對此的信心的資訊？我的意思是，從歷史上看，您已經經歷了關鍵市場的 3 12 條壓力曲線。顯然，北美訂單強勁。但我只是很好奇，您是否看到訂單到賬單或您跟踪的 3 12 壓力曲線的任何區域開始顯示這些是一些可能正在顯示出的短週期業務一點點裂紋？或者現階段我們在北美市場上沒有看到任何裂縫？

David, it's Tom. So I'll start with the full production comment in China. If you notice, we put Q1. We didn't say July. We said Q1. And the first thing I'll say is it's an educated guess. Obviously, I'm no smarter than anybody else. And only President Xi knows when those lockdowns are going to turn around.

大衛，是湯姆。我將從中國的完整製作評論開始。如果您注意到的話，我們將 Q1 放在其中。我們沒有說七月。我們說的是Q1。我要說的第一件事是，這是一個有根據的猜測。顯然，我並不比其他人聰明。只有習近平主席知道這些封鎖何時會解除。

However, a couple of things. Just part of what we have to do when we forecast is use some pragmatic thinking and a little bit of history. So we go back to when China went through it, the beginning of COVID, it had a pretty rapid rebound compared to the other regions. So some of that was factoring our equation. And then just thinking about the practicality, how long can you practically keep people locked up in their apartments and their homes, and it started middle of March. And so there's a point of diminishing returns here, where people are going to have to come back, the factories are going to have to come back.

然而，有幾件事。當我們進行預測時，我們必須做的一部分就是使用一些務實的思維和一點歷史。所以我們回到中國經歷的時候，即新冠疫情爆發之初，與其他地區相比，它的反彈相當快。所以其中一些因素考慮了我們的方程式。然後想想實用性，你實際上可以把人們鎖在他們的公寓和家裡多久，它從三月中旬開始。因此，這裡存在一個收益遞減點，人們必須回來，工廠也必須回來。

And so our best guess is sometime in Q1 of FY '23. Not saying [it's a lot]. It could be out could be September, and I could be wrong. And I typically had to pick a time. The whole point I was making about that comment is that it's temporary. This is not a permanent situation in China. Then if we look at FY '23 and we look at China, we would make up whatever happens here in the next several months because we have another 12 months ahead of us to make up with that.

因此，我們最好的猜測是在 23 財年第一季的某個時間。不是說[很多]。它可能會在九月發布，我可能是錯的。我通常必須選擇一個時間。我對這個評論的全部觀點是它是暫時的。這在中國並不是永久的情況。然後，如果我們看看 23 財年，再看看中國，我們將在接下來的幾個月彌補這裡發生的一切，因為我們還有另外 12 個月的時間來彌補。

Now on your comment related to end markets, we have over 90% of end markets positive. And virtually, with the exception -- everything is positive, with the exception of aerospace, military and power gen. And that's our outlook for Q4. Feels the same. And the pressure curves look good and we still feel very good about what's going on. Broad-based, I would describe it.

現在，根據您對終端市場的評論，我們對 90% 以上的終端市場持正面態度。事實上，除了航空航天、軍事和發電之外，一切都是積極的。這就是我們對第四季的展望。感覺一樣。壓力曲線看起來不錯，我們仍然對正在發生的事情感覺很好。我會描述它的基礎廣泛。

And last quick clarification. The aerospace, it's rolling 12 months. I appreciate that. When does that large order that's making for the difficult comps roll off in that calc?

最後快速澄清一下。航空航天業，已經滾動了 12 個月。我很感激。導致困難比較的大訂單什麼時候會在該計算中減少？

Yes. David, I can take that one. This is Todd. We probably still have another 2 quarters to get through that. If you remember, we just started calling that out last quarter. This is the second quarter we've called it out. So we've got 2 more quarters to go.

是的。大衛，我可以接受那個。這是托德。我們可能還有另外兩個季度的時間來完成這個任務。如果你還記得的話，我們上個季度才開始呼籲這一點。這是我們宣布的第二季。所以我們還有 2 個季度的時間。

Your next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Would echo all the comments about Robin. Really, really great working with you and wish you the best.

會回應所有關於羅賓的評論。與您合作真的非常好，祝您一切順利。

First question, on industrial, on the global business. So just looking through the guidance, it looks like you're kind of forecasting a mid-single-digit decline. And you had a pretty high decremental, call it, high 30s decremental. I know that the comps are tough in 4Q, but is there anything else that you want to call out for the 4Q number?

第一個問題，關於工業、全球商業。因此，只要瀏覽一下指導意見，您似乎就預測會出現中等個位數的下降。你有一個相當高的減量，稱之為 30 多歲的高減量。我知道第四季的比較很艱難，但是對於第四季的數字，您還有什麼想說的嗎？

Joe, so are you referring to sales or margins?

喬，你指的是銷售還是利潤？

Yes. So if my math is right, it looks like sales are expected to be down year-over-year. Margins also down, call it, more than 100 basis points. I'm just trying to parse it out and see whether there's some conservatism in there or you guys are seeing something specific to 4Q for the international business.

是的。因此，如果我的數學正確的話，銷售額預計將同比下降。利潤率也下降了超過 100 個基點。我只是想對其進行解析，看看其中是否存在一些保守主義，或者你們看到了國際業務第四季特有的東西。

Okay. So well, margins total for the company, 22.2% is what the effective Q4 guide is. We did 22.2% last year, last Q4. And we see expansion in North America. North American markets expand. Aerospace margin expands. And then Asia, international margins expand -- declined a little bit, still coming in our implied guidance right around 21%, and that's because of the China shutdown. So really good margin expansion in the areas outside of the China shutdown.

好的。那麼，公司的利潤總額為 22.2%，這是第四季度的有效指導值。去年第四季度，我們完成了 22.2%。我們看到了北美的擴張。北美市場擴大。航空航天利潤擴大。然後，亞洲的國際利潤率有所擴大，略有下降，但仍處於我們的隱含指引中，約 21%，這是因為中國的封鎖所致。因此，在中國停工之外的地區，利潤率確實實現了良好的成長。

And then on the top line, Todd preferred to this that we bumped up North America organic guide by 300 bps of going prior guide to new guide, bumped up aerospace by 50. And of course, we took down international. So maybe to calibrate people, the effect of the China shutdowns, we would throw -- we would increase total guide from Q4 by 250 bps, if that was running normal. And the total international will go up 650 bps. So it's a pretty big impact, which is weighing down international.

然後在頂線上，托德更喜歡這一點，我們將北美有機指南比之前的新指南提高了 300 個基點，將航空航天提高了 50 個基點。當然，我們降低了國際水平。因此，也許為了校準人們，中國關閉的影響，我們會拋出 - 如果運行正常，我們會將第四季度的總指導增加 250 個基點。國際總量將上升 650 個基點。所以這是一個相當大的影響，給國際帶來了壓力。

Got it. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. And then also, I kind of wanted to ask about aero also, more from a near-term perspective. I recognize you guys are kind of calling for some good growth year-over-year on the margins as well. Sequentially, though, it doesn't really seem like the margins are expected to pick up in the fourth quarter just based on the full year guide. Is there anything like you would call out from a mix standpoint in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter? Or still seeing good mix coming through in 4Q as well?

知道了。好的。這很有意義。然後，我也想從近期的角度詢問有關空氣動力學的問題。我知道你們也呼籲利潤率能夠實現年比良好成長。不過，僅根據全年指南，第四季的利潤率似乎並不會真正回升。從第四季與第三季的混合角度來看，您是否會提出類似的觀點？或者在第四季度仍然看到良好的組合？

Joe, this is Todd. I could take that one. What we've got in the fourth quarter guide -- you're talking specifically for aerospace, right?

喬，這是托德。我可以接受那個。我們在第四季度指南中得到的內容——您是專門針對航空航天領域的，對吧？

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

Yes. We actually are improving margins from Q3 to Q4. We did 21.9% in Q3, and we're right at 22.2% for Q4. So there is expansion there.

是的。實際上，從第三季度到第四季度，我們正在提高利潤率。第三季我們的成長率為 21.9%，第四季的成長率為 22.2%。所以那裡有擴張。

Your next question is from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Congrats, Robin. For me, I'm very impressed with the sort of incremental margin performance accelerating here. And I'm wondering just kind of directionally how we should be thinking about that for '23. Is there some reason that it would revert to kind of a long-term average? Or do we get to enjoy a longer period of a little bit higher incrementals?

恭喜，羅賓。對我來說，這裡的增量利潤表現給我留下了深刻的印象。我想知道我們應該如何考慮 23 年的方向。是否有某種原因會使其恢復到長期平均？或者我們可以享受更長一段時間的更高一點的增量？

Steve, it's Tom. I'm going to probably not make any specific comments about '23. I think you can appreciate there's a lot of things that changed. We're one of the first companies to get -- has the good fortune to talk about '23, and so I won't talk about it a month sooner than I need to. However, in general, when I've articulated incrementals, they tend to inflect at your highest point at the beginning of an upturn. They start to moderate. And then you use 30% kind of over-the-cycle type of number. And then once you're deeper in the cycle, it would go below 30%. So we'll see as the numbers roll up and as we forecast.

史蒂夫，是湯姆。我可能不會對 23 做出任何具體評論。我想你會意識到很多事情都改變了。我們是第一批有幸談論「23」的公司之一，所以我不會比需要的早一個月談論它。然而，總的來說，當我闡述增量時，它們往往會在經濟好轉開始時達到最高點。他們開始節制。然後你使用 30% 的過週期類型的數字。然後，一旦你深入循環，它就會降至 30% 以下。因此，隨著數字的增加和我們的預測，我們將會看到。

But I continue to -- we gave you our 5-year look. I think we had incrementals in that low 30s over the course of the next 5 years to get to those 5-year targets. And so that's -- we need to do that consistently somewhere over the next 5 years to hit those 5-year targets. And you've seen our track record on doing that. We are pretty good about our say-do ratio on the 5-year targets. So we'll see what happens, but the company is clearly in better shape and better condition to generate those incrementals.

但我繼續下去——我們給了你們五年的展望。我認為，在接下來的 5 年裡，我們將在 30 多歲的時間裡取得增量，以實現這些 5 年目標。因此，我們需要在未來 5 年的某個時間點持續這樣做，以實現這些 5 年目標。您已經看到了我們在這方面的記錄。我們對 5 年目標的「說做」比例相當滿意。因此，我們將看看會發生什麼，但該公司顯然處於更好的狀態和條件來產生這些增量。

Okay. Yes. Agreed. Well, it's worth a try. Maybe I'll shift to ask you about distribution. And I'm curious if there's any interesting trends you're seeing in distribution that are worth calling out as we try to think about the direction of everything here. And maybe you can add a comment on kind of distributor inventory when you do that.

好的。是的。同意。嗯，值得一試。也許我會轉而問你有關分銷的問題。我很好奇，當我們嘗試思考這裡的一切方向時，您在分發中是否看到了任何值得指出的有趣趨勢。也許您可以在這樣做時添加對經銷商庫存類型的評論。

Steve, it's Lee. Just -- so distribution as a whole, I would say, is going very well. I'll break it down a little bit. North America, all markets are very positive. There's -- for those distributors that are covering the natural resource industries, that business is coming back quickly and specifically. Internationally, we continue to grow distribution despite all the turmoil about 100 basis points a year. So we've been making great progress on that.

史蒂夫，我是李。我想說的是，整個發行過程進展順利。我會稍微分解一下。北美所有市場都非常積極。對於那些覆蓋自然資源產業的經銷商來說，業務正在迅速且具體地恢復。在國際上，儘管存在各種動盪，我們仍繼續將分銷增長每年約 100 個基點。所以我們在這方面已經取得了很大的進展。

And I would say on inventory, everybody could use more. I mean there's a great pull taking place. We're able to satisfy customers. But as a whole, distribution, if they could build more inventory, I think they would.

我想說的是，在庫存方面，每個人都可以使用更多。我的意思是，正在發生巨大的拉力。我們能夠讓客戶滿意。但作為一個整體，分銷，如果他們能夠建立更多的庫存，我認為他們會的。

And are you seeing more price in the distributor channel relative to the rest?

相對於其他通路，您是否發現分銷通路的價格較高？

Well, we've been -- as you know, we've been very proactive on making sure we cover material cost and do the pricing that's necessary with that. And those distributors have been passing those price increases along.

嗯，正如你所知，我們一直非常積極主動地確保我們承擔材料成本並進行必要的定價。這些經銷商一直在轉嫁價格上漲。

Your next question is from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Robin, congratulations. Going back to Meggitt and some of these currency moves. The -- I'm guessing that the bulk of the functional currency for Meggitt is U.S. dollar. I'm guessing that the bulk of the cost base is sterling. Is that correct? And -- because that then implies that if we do have a sort of a structurally weaker sterling going forward, that should be helpful to margins. So just wondering if you can maybe comment on that.

羅賓，恭喜你。回到 Meggitt 和其中一些貨幣走勢。我猜 Meggitt 的大部分功能貨幣是美元。我猜大部分成本基礎是英鎊。那是對的嗎？而且——因為這意味著如果英鎊未來確實出現某種結構性疲軟，那應該會對利潤率有所幫助。所以只是想知道你是否可以對此發表評論。

Yes. Nigel, this is Todd. I don't think I could comment on that. We are bound by the code. We did mention, I believe, on the call, there's a significant mix of the Meggitt business that is in the U.S. that obviously is dollar-based. So I think I'll leave it at that. But I...

是的。奈傑爾，這是托德。我想我無法對此發表評論。我們受守則約束。我相信，我們確實在電話會議上提到過，美捷特在美國的業務有很大一部分顯然是以美元為基礎的。所以我想我就這樣吧。但是我...

Okay. Yes. The move is significant, so it's worth exploring. And then just thinking about international. So it looks like ex China, the -- so the kind of the ex China business is low single digits in 4Q. So I'm just wondering if maybe you could just talk about what you're seeing geographically in international markets. And then would you encourage us to model the recovery of that $100 million of lost sales through FY '23 at this point?

好的。是的。這項舉措意義重大，因此值得探索。然後只是考慮國際化。因此，看起來中國以外的業務在第四季處於低個位數。所以我想知道您是否可以談談您在國際市場上所看到的情況。那麼您是否會鼓勵我們對 23 財年 1 億美元銷售損失的恢復進行建模？

Nigel, it's Tom. Yes, $100 million, we will recover sometime in FY '23. And obviously, we'll embed that when we give you the guide here in August. But when I think about the markets across the regions, in Q3, I'll just give you the reasons. This is all organic numbers I've given you. In both North America and EMEA, in mid-teens; Latin America, upper teens; aerospace, 6%; and then Asia was in the low single digits. And Asia Pacific was impacted because of China. China was down mid-single digits. The rest of Asia was up high single digits. And that's how you got to the Asia number.

奈傑爾，是湯姆。是的，1 億美元，我們將在 23 財年的某個時候收回。顯然，當我們在八月為您提供指南時，我們將嵌入這一點。但當我考慮第三季各地區的市場時，我只會告訴你原因。這是我給你的所有有機數字。在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，都是十幾歲左右；拉丁美洲，十幾歲；航空航天，6%；然後亞洲處於低個位數。亞太地區因中國而受到影響。中國的跌幅為中個位數。亞洲其他地區的漲幅高達個位數。這就是您獲得亞洲號碼的方式。

But when you look at end markets, it's pretty much across the board. As I mentioned on David's question, we have strength in 90% of our end markets. The only market decline was aerospace, military and power gen. So it's very broad-based. If I looked it up even higher, distribution and industrial both growing about the same rate, and a little bit slower, but it's been across all the segments.

但當你觀察終端市場時，你會發現情況幾乎是全面的。正如我在 David 的問題中提到的，我們在 90% 的終端市場上都有實力。唯一下降的市場是航空航太、軍事和發電。所以它的基礎非常廣泛。如果我再往上看，分銷和工業的成長速度大致相同，只是稍慢一些，但所有領域都是如此。

For our final question, it's from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

對於我們的最後一個問題，來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

So yes, I guess my final question, really, just on the aerospace business. I guess 2 aspects. One is I think you toned down the sales guide a little bit for the year. So just trying to understand what drove that and whether you think on the revenue side, the military headwinds abate entering fiscal '23. And then the margin performance for the year as a whole in aerospace is kind of exceptional on the operating leverage this year. Is there any way you could parse out drivers within that around maybe synergies or lower R&D, just so we can sort of use our own math to get to the sort of forward incrementals next year?

所以，是的，我想我的最後一個問題確實是關於航空航天業務。我猜有2個面向。一是我認為你們今年的銷售指南有所緩和。因此，只要想了解是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及您是否從收入方面考慮，進入 23 財年，軍事阻力就會減弱。然後，就今年的營運槓桿而言，航太業全年的利潤率表現非常出色。有沒有什麼方法可以解析出圍繞協同效應或較低研發的驅動因素，這樣我們就可以使用我們自己的數學來實現明年的向前增量？

So Julian, it's Tom. What's driving aerospace, if I just give you the 2 key components, is the commercial recovery. Our growth in Q3 commercial MRO was plus 31%, and commercial OEM was plus 21%. So those 2, when we get to the full year, plus 27% for commercial MRO, plus 17% for commercial OEM. And I think actually, when I look at my numbers, we bumped aerospace up 50 bps in Q4 versus the prior guide. So we see aerospace as positive. The order entry, again, once we cycle over the multiyear military order, which we've been trying to give you visibility to that, that was plus 20%. I mean the orders that we had, commercial OEM was over 100%, commercial MRO was 60%, so gigantic orders. And what you get right now offsetting that is the military piece, which everybody tracks out the companies. The military piece for supplier health, a lot of the OEMs pulled in military business into FY '21, which makes the comparable in '22 difficult. But we'll cycle through that, and military will eventually get back to kind of a low single-digit type of growth.

朱利安，是湯姆。如果我只給你兩個關鍵組成部分，推動航太業發展的動力就是商業復甦。第三季商業 MRO 成長了 31%，商業 OEM 成長了 21%。因此，當我們進入全年時，這 2 個因素加上商業 MRO 的 27%，以及商業 OEM 的 17%。我認為實際上，當我查看我的數據時，我們在第四季度將航空航天業務與先前的指導相比提高了 50 個基點。所以我們認為航空航天是積極的。再次，一旦我們循環查看多年軍事訂單（我們一直試圖讓您了解這一點），訂單輸入就會增加 20%。我的意思是我們的訂單中，商業 OEM 超過 100%，商業 MRO 為 60%，所以訂單非常龐大。現在抵消的是軍事部分，每個人都在追蹤這些公司。對於供應商健康而言，軍事部分，許多原始設備製造商將軍事業務拖入 21 財年，這使得 22 財年的比較變得困難。但我們會經歷這個循環，軍事最終將恢復到低個位數的成長。

So I'm very bullish on aerospace. Obviously, we don't have any of the Meggitt synergies and that kind of stuff into it now. But we have the same goal for aerospace as we do for everybody else, trying to get to 25% ROS over the next 5 years. And we've got a great acquisition in Meggitt, which we've shown what that synergies brings, that Meggitt business up to 100% EBITDA once we get the end of those synergies. So we have a lot of things that will help us with aerospace.

所以我非常看好航空航天。顯然，我們現在沒有任何美捷特的協同效應和類似的東西。但我們對航空航太的目標與其他產業的目標相同，力爭在未來 5 年內達到 25% 的 ROS。我們對 Meggitt 進行了一次偉大的收購，我們已經展示了協同效應帶來的效果，一旦我們完成這些協同效應，Meggitt 業務的 EBITDA 就會高達 100%。所以我們有很多東西可以幫助我們發展航空航天。

And is there any kind of outsized mix or R&D tailwind you'd call out for the margin performance in fiscal '22 just overall in aerospace?

對於 22 財年航太產業的整體利潤率表現，是否有任何規模龐大的組合或研發推動力？

Well, in the current quarter, it was light, mainly due to timing, nothing unique there. I would say, in general, it's a tad light or it's going to be 2.5% to 3% for this fiscal year. It's going to probably be more in that 3% to 4% range if I go over that 5-year period of time. But you won't see that hit in any material quarter -- material way, like a specific quarter, a specific year. It's going to -- over that period of time, we'll grow the MRO. And we're on still the R&D. And so by historical standards, that's a pretty efficient R&D spend versus what we were at the beginning of the super cycle for aerospace.

嗯，在當前季度，情況很清淡，主要是由於時機的原因，沒有什麼特別的。我想說，總的來說，這個財年的增幅有點小，或者說是 2.5% 到 3%。如果我考慮到 5 年的時間段，可能會更多地在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。但你不會在任何重要的季度看到這種打擊——重要的方式，例如特定的季度、特定的年份。在那段時間裡，我們將擴大 MRO。我們仍在進行研發。因此，按照歷史標準，與航空航太超級週期開始時相比，這是相當有效的研發支出。

Julian, I would just add to that. If you remember, at the pandemic when we made our adjustments, aerospace made the most aggressive adjustments from a cost basis. So we have obviously benefited from that throughout this year. Those costs are not coming back. So that would be another change from this year versus pre-pandemic levels.

朱利安，我想補充一點。如果你還記得，在疫情期間我們進行調整時，航空航太業從成本基礎上做出了最積極的調整。因此，今年我們顯然受益匪淺。這些成本不會回來。因此，與今年大流行前的水平相比，這將是另一個變化。

Okay. That concludes our Q3 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today. Robin and Jeff are going to be here today if you have any further questions or if you'd like to congratulate Robin personally. I would just like to make sure everyone knows, Robin will be here through December 31 of this calendar year. So you definitely have time to congratulate her, hopefully in person, as we go throughout the year, and she'll be here for the next couple of calls as well.

好的。我們的第三季財報電話會議到此結束。我要感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有任何其他問題或您想親自向羅賓表示祝賀，羅賓和傑夫今天將會在這裡。我只是想確保每個人都知道，Robin 會待到今年 12 月 31 日。所以你肯定有時間向她表示祝賀，希望是親自祝賀，因為我們全年都會這樣做，她也會在這裡接聽接下來的幾次電話。

So that is it. I'd like to thank everyone for their interest in Parker, and thanks again for joining us today. Thank you.

就是這樣。我要感謝大家對帕克的興趣，並再次感謝您今天加入我們。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect. Stay safe and well. Have a good day.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。保持安全和健康。祝你有美好的一天。