Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings and welcome to the Pagaya Technologies fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Pagaya Technologies 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Josh Fagen, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興介紹主持人、投資者關係主管喬希費根 (Josh Fagen)。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Pagaya's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our business and results are Gal Krubiner, Chief Executive Officer of Pagaya; Sanjiv Das, President; and Evangelos Perros, Chief Financial Officer. You can find the materials that accompany our prepared remarks and a replay of today's webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.pagaya.com.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Pagaya 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們的業務和業績的是 Pagaya 執行長 Gal Krubiner； Sanjiv Das，總裁；以及財務長 Evangelos Perros。您可以在我們網站 investor.pagaya.com 的投資者關係部分找到我們準備好的發言隨附的資料以及今天的網路廣播的重播。

Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and forecasts with respect to, among other things, our operations, the financial performance, including our financial outlook for the third quarter and full year of 2024. Our actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們當前的預期和預測，其中包括我們的營運、財務業績，包括我們對 2024 年第三季和全年的財務展望。我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause these results to differ materially from our expectations include, but are not limited to, those risks described in today's press release and our filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. Please refer to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, including our 10-K, 10-Q, and other reports for a more detailed discussion of these factors.

可能導致這些結果與我們的預期有重大差異的因素包括但不限於今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請參閱我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K、10-Q 和其他報告，以獲得有關這些因素的更詳細討論。

Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, fee revenue less production costs, or FRLPC, FRLPC as a percentage of network volume, and core operating expenses will be discussed on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available to the extent available without unreasonable efforts in our earnings release and other materials, which are posted on our Investor Relations website.

此外，電話會議中還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率、調整後的淨收入、費用收入減去生產成本或 FRLPC、FRLPC 佔網路容量的百分比以及核心營運費用。我們在收益報告和其他資料中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表，只要不付出過多努力，這些對帳表都會發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。

We encourage you to review the shareholder letter, which was furnished with the SEC on Form 8-K today for detailed commentary on our business and performance in conjunction with the accompanying earnings supplement and press release.

我們鼓勵您查看今天以 8-K 表格形式提交給美國證券交易委員會的股東信，以便結合隨附的收益補充和新聞稿來詳細了解我們的業務和業績。

With that, let me turn the call over to Gal.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給 Gal。

Thank you for joining us today for a discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results as well as an update on our business as we enter 2025 on the strongest overall footing in our company's history. You will see from our press release this morning that we closed out 2024 with an annual revenue of more than $1 billion up 27% year over year. FRLPC of $407 million, up 54% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $210 million up 156% year over year. All of our key reported metrics were at record levels and beat our prior guidance.

感謝您今天加入我們，討論我們的 2024 年第四季度和全年業績以及我們業務的最新進展，因為我們將以公司歷史上最強勁的整體基礎進入 2025 年。您將從我們今天早上的新聞稿中看到，我們在 2024 年結束時的年收入超過 10 億美元，比去年同期成長 27%。FRLPC 為 4.07 億美元，年成長 54%，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.1 億美元，年成長 156%。我們報告的所有關鍵指標均達到了創紀錄的水平並超過了我們先前的預期。

As we close out 2024 and as part of our regular quarterly process, we have updated the fair market values for our risk retention securities tied to 2021, 2022, and 2023 loan vintages. We noted during the third quarter of 2024 earning that we expected to have taken the vast majority of expected impairment charges associated with our [2023] vintages along with prior vintages by year end 2024.

隨著 2024 年的結束，作為我們常規季度流程的一部分，我們更新了與 2021、2022 和 2023 年貸款年份相關的風險保留證券的公平市場價值。我們在 2024 年第三季的收益中指出，我們預計到 2024 年底將計入與我們 [2023] 年份以及之前的年份相關的絕大部分預期減損費用。

The 2023 risk retention securities, which totaled at $275 million at the end of the third quarter, were marked down by $145 million this quarter, which impacted our P&L. Even with the vast improvement in credit performance, the values of these securities, as mentioned in the past were extremely sensitive to even small changes in underlying credit in prepayment assumptions because of the challenging funding environment that existed during 2023.

2023 年風險保留證券在第三季末總額為 2.75 億美元，本季減記了 1.45 億美元，影響了我們的損益表。即使信貸表現有了很大的改善，但正如過去所提到的，由於 2023 年的融資環境充滿挑戰，這些證券的價值對預付款假設中基礎信貸的哪怕是微小的變化也極為敏感。

We believe that we are now poised to generate consistent growth going forward that is profitable and as such we are providing our first ever GAAP net income profit guidance as part of our 2025 outlook. EP will provide more detail on our financial results later in the call.

我們相信，我們現在已準備好在未來實現持續的盈利增長，因此，我們在 2025 年展望中提供了首個 GAAP 淨收入利潤指引。EP 將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關我們財務結果的更多詳細資訊。

I want to take a step back and revisit where Pagaya is in its evolution. Why didn't it sets our product and company apart and underscore the value that we bring across our network, our ecosystem, and to our shareholders. We created Pagaya to enable lenders to provide more credit products and services to more, customers who have traditionally been excluded from the financial ecosystem.

我想回顧一下，重新檢視 Pagaya 的演變歷程。為什麼它不能讓我們的產品和公司脫穎而出，並強調我們為我們的網路、我們的生態系統和我們的股東帶來的價值。我們創建 Pagaya 是為了讓貸款人能夠向更多傳統上被排除在金融生態系統之外的客戶提供更多的信貸產品和服務。

These are good bowlers, hardworking mainstream Americans. And the country's biggest lenders are increasingly leveraging Pagaya's differentiated product value proposition to do exactly that. Offering more credit products and services to more customers. And when they do, they retain and add more customers and more valuable depositor accounts. They maintain and enhance customer lifetime value, and they boost return on marketing spend. All, without bearing the balance sheet costs.

這些都是優秀的投手，也是勤奮的美國主流人群。該國最大的幾家貸款機構正越來越多地利用 Pagaya 的差異化產品價值主張來實現這一目標。向更多客戶提供更多的信用產品和服務。當他們這樣做時，他們就會保留並增加更多的客戶和更有價值的存款帳戶。它們維持並提高客戶終身價值，並提高行銷支出的回報率。全部，無需承擔資產負債表成本。

Recently, several lending partners have extended the use of our unique solution to further engage existing customers to boost cross sell and further solidify relationships. As important as the unique value proposition our product offer is the deep level of integration within our partners internal lending funnel. This enables Pagaya to seamlessly add and service customers on behalf of these lending partners.

最近，幾家貸款合作夥伴擴大了我們獨特解決方案的使用範圍，以進一步吸引現有客戶，促進交叉銷售並進一步鞏固關係。我們的產品所提供的獨特價值主張與合作夥伴內部借貸管道的深度整合同樣重要。這使得 Pagaya 能夠代表這些貸款合作夥伴無縫地添加和服務客戶。

The best evidence of our solution is the industry demand and usage, with over $2.6 trillion of loan applications running through across our network, resulting in a $28 billion of loan originated provided to 2 million people. To put things in perspective, that's nearly 1% of all adult Americans. And with this demand and success, the flyway only getting stronger. Each application across our network provides Pagaya more valuable data which is used to make our underwriting technology even stronger.

我們的解決方案的最佳證據是行業需求和使用情況，我們的網路處理的貸款申請超過 2.6 兆美元，最終向 200 萬人提供了 280 億美元的貸款。換個角度來說，這幾乎佔了所有美國成年人的 1%。隨著這種需求和成功，飛行路線只會變得更強大。我們網路中的每個應用程式都為 Pagaya 提供了更有價值的數據，這些數據可用於使我們的承保技術更加強大。

This in return, enhance the value we provide to our partners and when our partners thrive, Pagaya thrives. The timing has never been better for Pagaya to help our 31 lending partners in the fast changing environment.

這反過來又提高了我們為合作夥伴提供的價值，當我們的合作夥伴蓬勃發展時，Pagaya 也會蓬勃發展。在快速變化的環境中，Pagaya 為我們的 31 家貸款合作夥伴提供幫助的時機再好不過了。

Momentum on the funding side of our network is just as robust and truly underscores the support from several of the largest institutional investors in the financial investment world. Look no further than our recently announced forward flow agreement with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital to purchase up to $2.4 billion in consumer loans through Pagaya Network over 24 months.

我們網路的融資動能同樣強勁，真正凸顯了金融投資領域幾家最大機構投資人的支持。我們最近宣布與 Blue Owl Capital 管理的基金達成遠期流量協議，將在 24 個月內透過 Pagaya Network 購買高達 24 億美元的消費貸款。

This is the second large forward flow agreement announced in just less than six months, a testament to the demand for the high quality consumer loan originated on our network. In addition to that, we have raised $27 billion in our ABS program across 66 transactions with over 130 institutional funding partners.

這是不到六個月內宣布的第二份大型正向流動協議，證明了我們網路上發起的高品質消費貸款的需求。除此之外，我們還透過 66 筆交易，與 130 多個機構融資合作夥伴在 ABS 計劃中籌集了 270 億美元。

We closed our sixth AAA-rated ABS transaction in the fourth quarter and executed our third path through securitization of the year in December 4, $100 million. We expect that all of our funding programs will continue to experience strong, growing, and oversubscribed demand as Pagaya becomes a one-stop shop for big institutional investors that are looking to get exposure to the space in the form of personal loans, auto loans, or point-of-sale loans.

我們在第四季完成了第六筆 AAA 級 ABS 交易，並於 12 月 4 日執行了今年的第三次證券化，金額為 1 億美元。我們預計，隨著 Pagaya 成為希望以個人貸款、汽車貸款或銷售點貸款形式進入該領域的大型機構投資者的一站式服務中心，我們所有的融資計劃將繼續經歷強勁、成長和超額認購的需求。

Our current management team is highly experienced, having navigated challenging credit businesses through various titles. This management's job has been to drive the maturity of our operating model and financial structure to amplify and maximize the value we can provide not only to our partners but to our shareholders as well.

我們目前的管理團隊經驗豐富，曾在各個職位上處理過具有挑戰性的信貸業務。管理階層的職責是推動我們的營運模式和財務結構的成熟，以擴大和最大化我們不僅可以為合作夥伴而且可以為股東提供的價值。

Over the last year, we have built the strongest and most efficient funding mechanism in Pagaya's history. We have restructured our balance sheet, enhanced our liquidity profile, and that means we are now fully self-funded.

在過去的一年裡，我們建立了 Pagaya 史上最強大、最有效的融資機制。我們重組了資產負債表，增強了流動性狀況，這意味著我們現在完全可以自籌資金。

Investors may wonder if we need to raise equity capital to support the business given the quarters outside GAAP net loss? The answer is simple. It's no. We do not expect to need any equity capital moving forward. Our certainty is derived from the optimization our team achieved on our funding and operating model in 2024.

投資人可能會想，考慮到非 GAAP 淨虧損季度，我們是否需要籌集股本來支持業務？答案很簡單。不是。我們預期未來不需要任何股本資本。我們的確定性源自於我們的團隊在2024年對融資和營運模式所實現的最佳化。

We work tirelessly to increase our net fees reflected in FRLPC by 55% year over year to 4.5% of our volume, while at the same time reducing our net cash requirements to fund our volume from 3% to almost 1.5%. Along with high quality liquid securities on our balance sheet, this paves the way to positive cash flow, eliminating any need for an equity raise.

我們不懈努力，將 FRLPC 中反映的淨費用同比增長 55%，達到我們交易量的 4.5%，同時將為我們的交易量提供資金的淨現金需求從 3% 降低到近 1.5%。加上我們資產負債表上的高品質流動證券，這為正現金流鋪平了道路，消除了任何股權融資的需要。

We believe that we now have the oppositional and financial momentum, balance sheet strength, maturity and deep institutional credit skills to manage through various environments. We expect that our growth will be disciplined and while credit impairment will always be part of any credit related business, for Pagaya, their impact is expected to be far smaller. This is reflected in our inaugural GAAP net income guidance, which we will discuss later in the call.

我們相信，我們現在擁有應對各種環境的競爭和財務動力、資產負債表實力、成熟度和深厚的機構信貸技能。我們預計，我們的成長將受到約束，儘管信用減損始終是任何信貸相關業務的一部分，但對於 Pagaya 而言，其影響預計會小得多。這反映在我們的首次 GAAP 淨收入指引中，我們將在稍後的電話會議上討論。

We are entering 2025 at a pivotal point where we believe that we have achieved the scale of rating and structural efficiency to be GAAP net income positive by the second quarter of 2025. In closing, I could not be more excited standing here today in front of you ahead of what Pagaya will deliver to the investment community and partners throughout this year and going forward.

我們正處於 2025 年的關鍵時刻，我們相信我們已經實現了評級和結構效率的規模，到 2025 年第二季度實現 GAAP 淨收入為正。最後，今天站在這裡，我非常興奮，期待 Pagaya 今年以及未來為投資界和合作夥伴帶來成果。

This inflection point is an important one. We will continue our mission to boost financial inclusion, to bridge mainstream and Wall Street, and at the same time showcase our ability to generate powerful and consistent EPS growth for our shareholders. We look forward to demonstrating the benefits of all of our hard work and investment to maximize the value of one of the country's most unique and in demand lending networks.

這個轉折點非常重要。我們將繼續我們的使命，促進金融包容性，連接主流和華爾街，同時展示我們為股東創造強勁和持續的每股收益成長的能力。我們期待展示我們所有辛勤工作和投資的成果，以最大限度地提高該國最獨特和最有需求的借貸網絡之一的價值。

With that, let me turn the call over to our President, Sanjiv Das to provide an update on our product and growth strategy.

接下來，我將把電話轉給總裁 Sanjiv Das，以提供有關我們的產品和成長策略的最新資訊。

Thank you, Gal. I'd like to start where Gal left off by reiterating that we believe that our business is now the strongest it's ever been. Our solutions have never been as in demand as they are currently, and our business has never been as well positioned to service that demand while sustainably maximizing the impact for our shareholders.

謝謝你，加爾。我想從加爾所說的地方開始，重申我們相信我們的業務現在處於有史以來最強勁的狀態。我們解決方案的需求從未像現在這樣大，我們的業務也從未像現在這樣能夠很好地滿足這種需求，同時可持續地為我們的股東帶來最大利益。

In terms of our lending partners, growth from existing partners and our new partner pipeline remain extremely robust. We expect that we will continue to boost monetization among leading institutional partners, adding new products to better penetrate their existing customer bases while seeing the ramp from more recently added relationships. In fact, we anticipate at least eight lending partners will each generate $500 million or more of network volume during 2025.

就我們的貸款合作夥伴而言，現有合作夥伴和新合作夥伴的成長仍然非常強勁。我們期望，我們將繼續推動領先機構合作夥伴的貨幣化，增加新產品以更好地滲透現有客戶群，同時看到最近增加的關係的提升。事實上，我們預計 2025 年至少有 8 家貸款合作夥伴將各自產生 5 億美元或更多的網路交易量。

I want to take a moment to review our momentum across our three core products personal loans, auto, and point-of-sale loans. These three product lines are at different stages of maturity and monetization within our business, which drives a mix of strong, stable growth from longer standing products along with more rapid growth trends from newer products, fueling consistent, long-term growth from both volume and monetization.

我想花點時間回顧我們的三大核心產品（個人貸款、汽車貸款和銷售點貸款）的發展勢頭。這三條產品線在我們的業務中處於不同的成熟度和貨幣化階段，推動了長期產品的強勁穩定增長以及新產品的更快速增長趨勢，從而推動了銷量和貨幣化的長期持續增長。

Starting with our most mature product, personal loans. Partner demand remains robust as we look into 2025. Growth here is disciplined as we continue to see strong and stable consumer performance among lone vintages that have seasoned over the last 12 to 18 months. In terms of monetization, personal loan FRLPC is robust at 6.3% versus 4.5% overall.

從我們最成熟的產品個人貸款開始。展望 2025 年，合作夥伴需求依然強勁。這裡的成長是有規律的，因為我們繼續看到在過去 12 到 18 個月內成熟的單一年份的葡萄酒的消費者表現強勁而穩定。在貨幣化方面，個人貸款 FRLPC 表現強勁，達到 6.3%，而整體為 4.5%。

Despite the relative maturity of this product on our network, volumes this quarter grew by 24% on an organic basis to 1.6 billion. Turning to auto lending, here too we are focusing on disciplined and judicious growth as we ramp back up to leverage improving sector trends.

儘管該產品在我們的網路上相對成熟，但本季的交易量仍有機成長了 24%，達到 16 億。談到汽車貸款，我們也將重點放在有紀律且明智的成長，因為我們將重新利用不斷改善的行業趨勢。

Here too we have seen strong and stable credit performance with 2023 vintages markedly better than 2022 peaks. EP will discuss these trends in detail later in the call. After an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, we focused our efforts during 2024 on improved credit underwriting and are positioned to benefit from substantially improving funding efficiency and notable improvement in returns and margins.

我們也看到了強勁而穩定的信貸表現，2023 年的業績明顯優於 2022 年的高峰。EP 將在稍後的電話會議中詳細討論這些趨勢。在宏觀經濟背景不確定的情況下，我們在 2024 年集中精力改善信用承保，並將從大幅提高融資效率和顯著提高回報和利潤率中受益。

We completed the onboarding of OneMain Financial and expect to start generating more volume from recently onboarded partners. Our year-end auto volume annualized run rate was nearly $1 billion, with fourth quarter sequential growth of just under 40%.

我們完成了 OneMain Financial 的入職培訓，並期望從新加入的合作夥伴那裡獲得更多的業務量。我們年底的汽車銷量年化運行率接近 10 億美元，第四季環比成長略低於 40%。

Our purest product, the newest and fastest growing vertical, is said to be the most powerful contributor to medium-term growth, leveraging very strong demand for our product. Here, we are pushing forward with existing partners, Klarna and US Banks, Elavon, while discussions continue with many major center banks and global payment brands.

我們最純粹的產品、最新、成長最快的垂直產業被認為是中期成長最有力的貢獻者，它推動了對我們產品的強勁需求。在這裡，我們正在與現有合作夥伴 Klarna 和美國銀行 Elavon 共同推進，同時繼續與許多主要中央銀行和全球支付品牌進行討論。

Already we are seeing robust growth in this vertical, with over 170% sequential growth in our POS volumes in the fourth quarter. Our year end exit rate represents a run rate of more than $1 billion in network volume with strong returns.

我們已經看到該垂直領域的強勁成長，第四季我們的 POS 量較上季成長超過 170％。我們的年終退出率代表網路容量運作率超過 10 億美元，回報率很高。

Turning to a new partner pipeline, demand remains extremely robust. Among our potential new partners, I'd like to highlight several late stage discussions among US regional banking institutions and look forward to sharing more progress through 2025.

談到新的合作夥伴管道，需求仍然非常強勁。在我們潛在的新合作夥伴中，我想強調美國地區銀行機構之間的幾次後期討論，並期待在 2025 年分享更多進展。

As we gain more traction with new and existing partners, we have evolved our product strategy to help partners serve their customers' needs outside of the second look products. Our pre-screen product, for instance, which is in testing with three existing partners, has enabled lenders to drive engagement with substantially lower customer acquisition costs, and we believe that over time we will drive increased conversion.

隨著我們與新舊合作夥伴的聯繫越來越緊密，我們改進了產品策略，以幫助合作夥伴在第二視角產品之外滿足客戶的需求。例如，我們的預篩選產品正在與三個現有合作夥伴進行測試，該產品使貸方能夠以大幅降低的客戶獲取成本來推動參與，並且我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們將推動轉換率的提高。

As a reminder, the pre-screen product is truly innovative. It leverages our access to lending partners customer data combined with our own data to provide recommendations for additional lending products to customers who deserve them and who would benefit from them.

需要提醒的是，預篩選產品確實具有創新性。它利用我們對貸款合作夥伴客戶資料的存取權限以及我們自己的數據，為需要這些產品且能從中受益的客戶提供額外貸款產品的推薦。

By helping our partners to offer additional products and opportunities to engage with qualified customers, the pre-screen product enables our partners to drive further growth without additional marketing costs, not only boosting return on investment, but retention. We look to scale this product further through 2025.

透過幫助我們的合作夥伴提供額外的產品和與合格客戶互動的機會，預先篩選產品使我們的合作夥伴能夠在不增加行銷成本的情況下推動進一步成長，不僅可以提高投資報酬率，還可以提高保留率。我們期望在 2025 年將進一步擴大該產品的規模。

We are also focused on helping our partners leverage customer acquisition products across asset classes outside their traditional channels. For instance, we are testing affiliate expansion with several existing partners and see promising customer acquisition trends, which is another avenue to help our partners drive customer and revenue growth, engagement, and returns on investment.

我們也致力於幫助我們的合作夥伴利用傳統管道之外的跨資產類別的客戶獲取產品。例如，我們正在與幾個現有合作夥伴測試聯盟擴展，並看到了有希望的客戶獲取趨勢，這是幫助我們的合作夥伴推動客戶和收入成長、參與度和投資回報的另一種途徑。

We believe that the best way we can measure the value we provide our partners is through the FRLPC we generate on network volume. After all, as our partners benefit, so do we. In fact, our FRLPC grew by 55% in the fourth quarter of 2024, resulting in a record 4.5% of network volumes, the top of our guidance range.

我們相信，衡量我們為合作夥伴提供的價值的最佳方式是透過我們在網路量上產生的 FRLPC。畢竟，我們的合作夥伴受益，我們也受益。事實上，我們的 FRLPC 在 2024 年第四季成長了 55%，網路容量達到了創紀錄的 4.5%，達到了我們指導範圍的最高水準。

Our quarterly application volume of $197 billion helps illustrate our deep integration across many large lending institutions, and the fact that we have funded under 1% of those loans speaks to our extremely prudent underwriting standards.

我們每季 1,970 億美元的申請量表明我們與許多大型貸款機構的深度整合，而我們為不到 1% 的貸款提供資金的事實說明了我們極其審慎的承保標準。

As I turn over to EP to discuss our financials in more detail, I want to leave you with the understanding that we expect our growth will be as balanced and disciplined as ever. We have extremely robust demand trends from both new and existing partners and opportunities to expand the ways in which we help them engage and monetize their customers across their enterprise offerings.

當我轉向 EP 更詳細地討論我們的財務狀況時，我想讓你們明白，我們預計我們的成長將像以往一樣平衡和有紀律。我們有來自新舊合作夥伴的極其強勁的需求趨勢，以及擴展我們幫助他們透過企業產品吸引客戶並從客戶中獲利的方式的機會。

With that, I will now pass it over to EP.

說完這些，我現在將話題交給 EP。

Thank you, Sanjiv. 2024 was a solid year for Pagaya from a financial perspective as we turn the corner to a new chapter in our company's history. In the beginning of 2024, we set out two aspirational goals: to become cash flow positive and to set ourselves up to become GAAP net positive in 2025.

謝謝你，Sanjiv。從財務角度來看，2024 年對 Pagaya 來說是堅實的一年，因為我們翻開了公司歷史的新篇章。在 2024 年初，我們制定了兩個遠大目標：實現現金流為正，並努力在 2025 年實現 GAAP 淨正。

And while the journey to get there has been very challenging, the team readily embraced it and successfully executed towards achieving these goals. We are ready to leverage all of the hard work, tough decisions, instructive learnings from our disappointing past performance, and deep management experience to truly demonstrate the earnings power of our business in 2025 and beyond.

儘管實現這一目標的路途十分艱辛，但團隊欣然接受，並成功實現了這些目標。我們準備好利用所有的努力、艱難的決定、從令人失望的過去表現中吸取的有益教訓以及深厚的管理經驗來真正展示我們業務在 2025 年及以後的盈利能力。

Throughout 2024, we were enlightened by our experience dealing with legacy issues and the adverse impact from our 2021 to 2023 performance but still remained laser focused on building a disruptive business that can withstand all cycles and create long term shareholder value.

在整個 2024 年，我們從處理遺留問題的經驗以及 2021 年至 2023 年業績的不利影響中獲益良多，但我們仍然專注於打造能夠經受住所有周期並創造長期股東價值的顛覆性業務。

Pagaya has been tested, as has our sector, US consumers and our lending partners, and we have persevered and emerged from a series of macro and other factors with a strong fee generating engine, improved capital structure and liquidity profile, and significant operating leverage.

Pagaya 以及​​我們的行業、美國消費者和貸款合作夥伴都經歷了考驗，我們堅持下來，並擺脫了一系列宏觀和其他因素的影響，擁有強大的費用生成​​引擎、改善的資本結構和流動性狀況以及顯著的經營槓桿。

I'm very pleased to be here today and provide our inaugural launch of positive GAAP profitability guidance, which we expect in the second quarter of this year while executing on a business plan that is self-funded. This is no small fit for a company of our size and short history.

我很高興今天能在這裡首次發布積極的 GAAP 獲利預測，我們預計該預測將在今年第二季度實現，同時執行一項自籌資金的業務計劃。對於我們這種規模和歷史較短的公司來說，這很不合適。

Our results for the fourth quarter were better than our guidance, demonstrating strong monetization of robust network volume and continued operating leverage, leading to 88% EBITDA growth. We are publicly guiding to GAAP net income profitability for the first time, which I will discuss in more detail later.

我們第四季的業績好於我們的預期，顯示強勁的網路容量和持續的營運槓桿實現了強勁的貨幣化，從而實現了 88% 的 EBITDA 成長。我們首次公開指導 GAAP 淨收入獲利能力，稍後我將詳細討論。

Before turning to detailed results, I'd like to highlight several achievements which reflect consistent execution of our financial strategy. FRLPC has a percent of volume at a record 4.5% increased 25 basis points quarter over quarter and 130 basis points year over year, the truest measure of the value we provide to our network partners.

在介紹詳細結果之前，我想先強調幾個體現我們財務策略一貫執行的成就。FRLPC 的交易量百分比達到創紀錄的 4.5%，比上一季增加了 25 個基點，比去年同期增加了 130 個基點，這是我們為網路合作夥伴提供的價值的最真實衡量標準。

Core operating expenses were 49% of our FRLPC, the lowest in our public history, a testament to the operating leverage in our model and the trend which will persist going forward.

核心營運費用占我們FRLPC的49%，這是我們上市以來的最低水平，證明了我們模型中的營運槓桿以及未來將持續存在的趨勢。

Our funding program has been further optimized with diverse funding sources such as the recent forward flow from Blue Owl and improvement within our ABS program. Net required to fund our volume has declined to 2% to 3% for personal loans and 1.5% to 2.5% for all network volume. This is a step function improvement in our risk exposure in absolute terms, as well as cash flow characteristics. Our interest expense and access to liquidity have improved meaningfully as we completed our previously announced balance sheet restructuring and refinancing.

我們的融資計劃已進一步優化，資金來源多種多樣，例如最近來自 Blue Owl 的正向資金流入以及我們 ABS 計劃的改進。個人貸款的淨融資需求已下降至 2% 至 3%，全網絡貸款的淨融資需求已下降至 1.5% 至 2.5%。這是我們的風險敞口在絕對值上以及現金流特徵上的一個階躍改善。隨著我們完成先前宣布的資產負債表重組和再融資，我們的利息支出和流動性取得得到了顯著改善。

Lastly and importantly, we no longer expect to face material headwinds [to stability] from securities on our balance sheet associated with 2021 to 2023 vintages. This allows us to demonstrate the true earnings power of our operating model, a stable recurring growth in revenue is expected to drive profitability.

最後，也是最重要的一點，我們預期資產負債表上與 2021 年至 2023 年相關的證券不再面臨重大阻力（穩定性）。這使我們能夠展示我們營運模式的真正獲利能力，預計穩定的經常性收入成長將推動獲利能力。

Turning to network volume, we saw 9% growth in the fourth quarter to $2.6 billion, of which we funded under 1% of the flow through our network, relatively in line with the trend over the last several quarters. Part of the increase was attributable to CRM and higher than expected conversion versus what we expected with our previous guidance.

談到網路交易量，我們看到第四季成長了 9%，達到 26 億美元，其中我們為網路流量提供的資金不到 1%，與過去幾季的趨勢相對一致。部分成長歸因於 CRM 以及高於我們先前預期的轉換率。

Personal loans remain the largest contributor to volume up 24% year over year, organically at approximately 60% of total. Total revenue, another income of $279 million grew by 28% from the year ago quarter, with fee revenue up 31%, primarily due to personal loans.

個人貸款仍然是貸款規模最大的貢獻者，年增 24%，有機成長約佔總貸款規模的 60%。總營收為 2.79 億美元，較去年同期成長 28%，其中費用收入成長 31%，主要得益於個人貸款。

FRLPC grew 55% to a record $117 million in the quarter and was a record 4.5% of network volume. This was at the high end of the 3.5% to 4.5% range we provided for the second half of 2024 and was up 130 basis points from the year ago quarter.

本季度，FRLPC 成長 55%，達到創紀錄的 1.17 億美元，佔網路容量的 4.5%，創紀錄。這是我們為 2024 年下半年提供的 3.5% 至 4.5% 範圍的高位，比去年同期上漲了 130 個基點。

Once again, lending products made up the majority, or 71% of total FRLPC, up from 63% one year ago and 32% two years ago. This is an important and purposeful shift towards more sustainable and predictable revenue growth through the cycle.

貸款產品再次佔據了大多數，佔FRLPC總額的71%，高於一年前的63%和兩年前的32%。這是一個重要且有目的的轉變，旨在實現整個週期中更永續、更可預測的收入成長。

Our adjusted EBITDA grew 88% year over year to a record $64 million with margins up 730 basis points to 23%. Incremental margins of 49% in the quarter reflected strong operating leverage, a trend we expect to continue going forward.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 年成長 88%，達到創紀錄的 6,400 萬美元，利潤率上漲 730 個基點，達到 23%。本季 49% 的增量利潤率反映了強勁的經營槓桿，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

Net income attributable to Pagaya was a loss of $238 million and was primarily impacted by fair value adjustments, a risk that we have highlighted during our third quarter earnings. The losses ended up higher than we expected. Overall, fair value adjustments net in our overall portfolio were a loss of $156 million versus $101 million in the prior quarter. Approximately 90% was attributable to 2023 vintages.

歸屬於 Pagaya 的淨收入虧損 2.38 億美元，主要受到公允價值調整的影響，這是我們在第三季收益中強調的風險。最終的損失比我們預期的要高。整體而言，我們整體投資組合的公允價值調整淨虧損 1.56 億美元，而上一季為 1.01 億美元。約 90% 歸因於 2023 年份的葡萄酒。

In addition, previously recorded market driven losses of $79 million in other comprehensive income on our balance sheet were reversed and reported as other expenses net on our P&L. This reversal is attributable to our fair value estimate, assuming we will exercise our optional redemption rights on several of our investments as the most likely scenario compared with prior estimates.

此外，我們資產負債表上其他綜合收益中先前記錄的7,900萬美元的市場驅動損失已被沖銷並作為損益表中的其他費用淨額報告。這種逆轉歸因於我們的公允價值估計，假設與先前的估計相比，我們將對幾項投資行使可選贖回權，這是最可能的情況。

We believe we have taken the majority of our losses related to historical vintages in the last quarter, and we do not expect them to have a material impact, if any, to our performance in the future. I want to highlight a few things and emphasize what I mentioned before. Losses in any consumer lending business are to be expected, but the outcome of our execution over the challenging 2021 to 2023 period is still deeply disappointing.

我們相信，我們在上個季度已經承擔了與歷史年份相關的大部分損失，我們預計這些損失不會對我們未來的業績產生重大影響（如果有的話）。我想強調幾點並強調我之前提到的內容。任何消費貸款業務都會出現虧損，但我們在充滿挑戰的 2021 年至 2023 年期間的執行結果仍然令人深感失望。

Throughout 2024 we have taken significant actions to effectively navigate similar outcomes in the future. Select examples include our scale and expanded flow access, improved credit underwriting and risk management overlay, funding optimization and diversification, cost of capital improvement, all of which have been validated by third parties such as rating agencies, corporate funding partners, and institutional investors looking to gain access to our production. In addition, introducing GAAP net income guidance is one step towards driving visibility and accountability.

在整個 2024 年，我們採取了重大行動，以有效應對未來類似的結果。精選範例包括我們的規模和擴大的流量管道、改進的信用承保和風險管理覆蓋、資金優化和多樣化、資本成本改善，所有這些都已得到第三方的驗證，例如評級機構、企業融資合作夥伴和希望獲得我們產品的機構投資者。此外，引入 GAAP 淨收入指引是提高可見度和可問責性的一步。

Continuing with our results, interest expense was $26 million in the quarter, while share-based compensation expense of $16 million was towards the lower end of our expected range of $15 million to $20 million per quarter.

繼續我們的業績報告，本季的利息支出為 2,600 萬美元，而股權激勵支出為 1,600 萬美元，接近我們預期的每季 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元範圍的低端。

Adjusted net income was positive for the sixth consecutive quarter at $13 million excluding share-based compensation and other non-cash items such as fair value adjustments. Our credit performance remains strong with continued improvement over the past two years driven by enhancement of our underwriting models.

調整後淨收入連續六個季度為正值，為 1,300 萬美元（不含股權激勵費用和公允價值調整等其他非現金項目）。我們的信用表現依然強勁，在過去兩年中，由於核保模式的增強，我們的信用表現持續改善。

Our personal loan cumulative net losses for first and third quarter 2023 vintages are 20% to 35% lower than peak losses in late 2021 at the same month on book. Auto a cumulative net losses for first and third quarter of 2023 vintages are trending approximately 30% to 50% lower than peak 2022 vintages at the same month on book.

我們 2023 年第一季和第三季的個人貸款累計淨損失比 2021 年末帳面同期的峰值損失低 20% 至 35%。2023 年第一季和第三季的累計淨虧損比帳面同期 2022 年高峰期的汽車淨虧損趨勢低約 30% 至 50%。

Turning to funding, the team has driven meaningful improvements in diversification and efficiency of our funding channels. In our ABS program as of the end of 2024, we have issued $26 billion across 64 transactions with more than 130 partners, including our six AAA-rated transaction, which closed in the fourth quarter. We expect net risk retention [levers] in our personal loan paid ABS program to remain in the 4% to 5% range of notional size of the deals.

在融資方面，團隊推動了我們融資管道的多樣化和效率的顯著提升。在我們的 ABS 計畫中，截至 2024 年底，我們已與 130 多個合作夥伴透過 64 筆交易發行了 260 億美元債券，其中包括第四季度完成的六筆 AAA 級交易。我們預計個人貸款支付 ABS 計劃中的淨風險保留（槓桿）將保持在交易名義規模的 4% 至 5% 範圍內。

Last week we announced our second large forward flow agreement with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital to purchase up to $2.4 billion in consumer loans through the Pagaya network over a 24 month period. This is a clear testament to the attractiveness and demand of consumer credit originated across the Pagaya's platform and our focus on funding loan origination in a capital efficient manner.

上週，我們宣布與 Blue Owl Capital 管理的基金達成第二份大型正向流動協議，將在 24 個月內透過 Pagaya 網路購買高達 24 億美元的消費貸款。這清楚地證明了 Pagaya 平台上消費信貸的吸引力和需求，以及我們專注於以資本高效的方式為貸款發放提供資金。

We have further diversified on the back of our third pass-through securitization of the year in December for $100 million. As a reminder, past transactions not only help to diversify our funding sources, but the net risk retention requirement is at a minimum 1% of the notional size of the deal. We will continue to leverage strong demand from investors for this product.

我們在 12 月進行了今年第三次 1 億美元的直通證券化，從而進一步實現了多元化。提醒一下，過去的交易不僅有助於我們實現資金來源多樣化，而且淨風險保留要求至少為交易名義規模的 1%。我們將繼續利用投資者對該產品的強勁需求。

We currently expect all non-ABS funding channels to represent 25% to 50% of our 2025 funding sources. This will lead to continued reduction in required risk retention, and we will continue to consider holding more securities when and if it makes economic sense.

我們目前預計所有非 ABS 融資管道將占我們 2025 年融資來源的 25% 至 50%。這將導致所需風險保留的持續減少，如果具有經濟意義，我們將繼續考慮持有更多證券。

Before turning to guidance, I want to review our balance sheet and provide more details on fair value adjustments for the quarter. We ended the year with $227 million in cash and cash equivalents and $764 million in investments in loan and securities. In the fourth quarter, the fair value of the overall investment portfolio net of non-controlling interest and prior to any new additions in the quarter was adjusted downward by $156 million versus $101 million last quarter.

在發表指引之前，我想先回顧一下我們的資產負債表，並提供更多有關本季公允價值調整的細節。截至年底，我們的現金和現金等價物為 2.27 億美元，貸款和證券投資為 7.64 億美元。第四季度，扣除非控股權益且未計入本季度任何新增資產的整體投資組合的公允價值較上季度的 1.01 億美元下調了 1.56 億美元。

90% of those adjustments were driven by the 2023 vintages as a result of the meaningfully higher cost of capital at which these transactions were executed, leading minimal to no cushion against changes in initial loss assumptions which still ended up being higher than expected at the time of pricing.

其中 90% 的調整是由 2023 年份葡萄酒推動的，因為執行這些交易的資本成本明顯較高，導致對初始損失假設變化的緩衝很小甚至沒有，而初始損失假設最終仍高於定價時的預期。

Additionally, we reversed the previous loss of $79 million in other comprehensive income in our shareholders' equity, which was a reclassification to other expenses, as I explained earlier. Our 2025 guidance, which includes positive GAAP [profitability] in 2025, reflects multiple illustrative scenarios related to future impairments, if any, as laid out in our earnings supplement.

此外，我們還扭轉了股東權益中其他綜合收益中 7,900 萬美元的先前損失，這是對其其他費用的重新分類，正如我之前所解釋的那樣。我們的 2025 年指引包括 2025 年的正 GAAP [獲利能力]，反映了與未來減損（如有）相關的多種說明性情景，如我們的收益補充中所述。

In the fourth quarter, we also added $17 million of new investments in loan and securities, net of pay downs from prior investments, inclusive of an $8 million gain on sale. As of year end, the mix of our investments was 31% notes and 68% certificates versus 13% notes and 87% certificates a year ago. The improvement in mix and quality of our assets is an additional source of potential liquidity for Pagaya as we head into 2025.

第四季度，我們還增加了 1,700 萬美元的貸款和證券新投資，扣除前期投資的償還金額，其中包括 800 萬美元的銷售收益。截至年底，我們的投資組合為 31％ 的票據和 68％ 的證書，而一年前為 13％ 的票據和 87％ 的證書。隨著我們邁向 2025 年，資產組合和品質的改善為 Pagaya 帶來了額外的潛在流動性來源。

Turning to our outlook. Our full year 2025 and Q1 2025 outlook reflect the current momentum and resilience in our business, and while we see improvement in the macro environment, we remain cautious. The focus remains on profitable growth, and we expect to generate positive GAAP net income profitability in the second quarter of the year.

轉向我們的展望。我們對 2025 年全年和 2025 年第一季的展望反映了我們業務的當前發展勢頭和韌性，雖然我們看到宏觀環境有所改善，但我們仍保持謹慎。我們仍專注於獲利成長，預計今年第二季將實現正的 GAAP 淨收入獲利。

We expect continued growth across personal loan, auto and POS products while FRLPC reflects the full year impact of the improvement in fees in 2024 and the change in funding mix. Given the investments to date in operating efficiencies, we do not expect any material investment in the business in 2025.

我們預計個人貸款、汽車和 POS 產品將繼續成長，而 FRLPC 反映了 2024 年費用改善和資金結構變化對全年的影響。鑑於迄今為止在營運效率方面的投資，我們預計 2025 年不會對該業務進行任何重大投資。

GAAP net income profitability will be driven by these factors along with lower fair value adjustments, if any, as well as lower interest expense. All the results of our relentless execution in 2024 to get the company to be cash flow and GAAP net positive.

這些因素以及較低的公允價值調整（如果有）以及較低的利息支出將推動 GAAP 淨收入獲利能力。我們在 2024 年不懈執行的所有成果使公司實現了現金流和 GAAP 淨正值。

For the first quarter of 2025, we expect network volume in the range of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion. Total revenue and other income in the range of $280 million to $295 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $65 million to $75 million. We expect first quarter GAAP net income in the range of negative $20 million to break even.

對於 2025 年第一季度，我們預計網路交易量將在 25 億美元至 27 億美元之間。總收入和其他收入在 2.8 億美元至 2.95 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 在 6500 萬美元至 7500 萬美元之間。我們預計第一季 GAAP 淨收入將在負 2,000 萬美元左右，達到收支平衡。

For the full year, we expect network volume in the range of $10.25 billion to $11.75 billion, total revenue and other income of $1.15 billion to $1.275 billion, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $265 million to $315 million. We are guiding the GAAP net income for the year in the range of negative $10 million to $40 million.

我們預計全年網路交易量將在 102.5 億美元至 117.5 億美元之間，總收入及其他收入將在 11.5 億美元至 12.75 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.65 億美元至 3.15 億美元之間。我們預計今年的 GAAP 淨收入將在負 1,000 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元之間。

With that, let me turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰‧赫克特 (John Hecht)。

Morning guys, thanks very much for taking my questions and all the details that you've provided. And I guess my question is you've done some -- you've given us some details around the fair value marks in the quarter. The marks were a little bit bigger than prior quarters, maybe can you give us a little bit more detail on kind of what framework you use to make the fair value marks? What's baked into them now and what gives you confidence that there won't be ongoing fair value marks as we go through 2025?

早上好，大家好，非常感謝您回答我的問題並提供所有詳細資訊。我的問題是，您已經做了一些——您已經向我們提供了有關本季度公允價值標記的一些詳細資訊。與前幾季相比，標記稍微大了一點，也許您能給我們一些細節，說明您使用什麼框架來制定公允價值標記？目前它們已經發生了哪些變化？

Sure, John. Hi, it's Gal here. Thank you so much. So I will take the first piece and then we'll hand it over to EP to speak more specific, about the framework and where the loss is coming from and Sanjiv to speak about what it means for the business.

當然，約翰。你好，我是 Gal。太感謝了。因此，我將負責第一部分，然後我們將把它交給 EP，讓他更具體地說，關於框架和損失的來源，並讓 Sanjiv 談談這對業務意味著什麼。

So. First, let me say that as we think about the impairments and as you mentioned out, the last three quarters were an outsized losses versus what we used to have in the past and what we expect to have in the future. Most of them are the things that are driving for 2023. If you recall in our last earning call that we stood here in November, we actually said that we are going to have another quarter of losses coming through.

所以。首先，我想說的是，當我們考慮減損時，正如您所提到的，與過去以及我們預期的未來相比，過去三個季度的損失過於巨大。其中大部分都是推動2023年發展的因素。如果你還記得，在我們 11 月的上一次財報電話會議上，我們實際上說過，我們將會再經歷一個季度的虧損。

Most of the losses, and if you will speak specific numbers, are related to the 2023 vintages that throughout the year got seasoned and therefore versus where they are marked on the balance sheet where the actual data coming in to the fair market value hit.

大部分損失（如果你要說出具體的數字）都與 2023 年份的葡萄酒有關，這些葡萄酒全年都經過陳釀，因此與它們在資產負債表上的標記位置以及公平市場價值的實際數據相符。

And all of that in 2023 was because the funding conditions were so challenging that in order to support the network, the funds, and the investors, et cetera, we needed to put up these things that we knew could have some potential losses in the form of the level of sensitivity to it.

而 2023 年發生的一切都是因為融資條件非常具有挑戰性，為了支持網絡、基金和投資者等，我們需要提供這些東西，我們知道這些東西可能會以敏感度的形式帶來一些潛在的損失。

But really the bigger question that you're asking is, how should we feel comfortable that this will not be happening again? So first and foremost, let me share that the guidance that we provided for 2025 is including any potential credit related impairments. We have built in the last two or three quarters a very robust infrastructure and capabilities to be much more predictive about these types of outcome as it relates to the losses in the different parts.

但實際上，您要問的更大的問題是，我們如何放心這種事情不會再發生？因此，首先，讓我分享一下，我們為 2025 年提供的指導包括任何潛在的信貸相關減損。在過去的兩三個季度裡，我們已經建立了非常強大的基礎設施和能力，可以更好地預測與不同部分的損失相關的結果。

And if you remember, we repeatedly said that as we think about the 2024 deals and transactions that we have on the balance sheet because of the different environments that were produced in plus how we know the performance of the credit is performing and it's performing well. We are in the very strong belief and we have the visibility to know that a meaningful or magnitude like that of losses is out of the question.

如果你還記得的話，我們曾經反覆說過，當我們考慮 2024 年的交易時，我們會在資產負債表上列出這些交易，這是因為在不同環境下產生的，而且我們知道信貸的表現良好。我們堅信並且清楚，發生如此重大或程度的損失是不可能的。

That comes to the last piece, which is when we are thinking and speaking about the 2024 trends and where we are standing today is the business and what the business is underwriting today is a very strong production that is consisted both on the credit -- on the income side, but a lower cost of capital and a better structures on the other side that is translated into normal future losses meaningful on the 2024 in the future.

這是最後一部分，也就是當我們思考和談論 2024 年的趨勢時，我們今天的業務以及今天的業務承保的是非常強勁的生產，它既包括信貸——在收入方面，也包括較低的資本成本和更好的結構，另一方面，這將轉化為未來 2024 年有意義的正常未來損失。

And when we did the full fair market value as in our regular process to bring this down, the prior '24 vintages should not have any material drag on our performance and hence we are today, having the ability to provide a GAAP net income guidance inclusive of any potential credit related impairments.

當我們按照常規流程，按照完全公平市場價值來降低這一數字時，之前的 24 個年份不應該對我們的業績產生任何重大拖累，因此，我們今天有能力提供包括任何潛在信用相關減值在內的 GAAP 淨收入指引。

I will hand it over now to EP to speak a little bit more about the specifics of the numbers and the things behind, and then Sanjiv will close it out with understanding of the business impact.

現在我將把時間交給 EP，讓他更詳細地介紹這些數字以及背後的含義，然後 Sanjiv 將以對業務影響的了解來結束發言。

Thanks, Gal. Hi John, thank you for your question. Just wanted to give a little bit more context as well, a little bit more details, and more importantly, highlight what we have done to mitigate such outcomes in the future. In the last quarter we did highlight that we expected more losses of the 2023 vintages were the challenging vintages. We had indicated that we had a mark on those of $275 million and we did take a $144 million impairment against those this quarter out of the total of $156 million.

謝謝，加爾。你好，約翰，謝謝你的提問。只是想提供更多背景資訊、更多細節，更重要的是，強調我們為減輕未來此類後果所做的努力。在上個季度，我們確實強調，預計 2023 年份的葡萄酒損失會更大，因為這些年份的葡萄酒面臨挑戰。我們已表示，我們對其中 2.75 億美元進行了標記，並且我們在本季度從總計 1.56 億美元中計入了 1.44 億美元的減值。

Overall credit related impairments were at $229 million net of non-controlling interest, which included a $79 million reversal of previously accumulated losses on our balance sheet that were moved into other expenses. 90% of those losses I pointed out are driven by the 2023 and the rest from the '21 and '22 vintages. As a reminder, these were executed during a very challenging funding environment where the cost of capital was higher than the actual expected return. So even small changes in credit was exposing us to potentially large losses.

扣除非控制權益後的整體信貸相關減損為 2.29 億美元，其中包括轉入其他費用的 7,900 萬美元先前累積的損失的逆轉。我指出的損失中有 90% 是由 2023 年份的葡萄酒造成的，其餘的則是由 21 年和 22 年的葡萄酒造成的。提醒一下，這些都是在非常具有挑戰性的融資環境中執行的，其中資本成本高於實際預期回報。因此，即使信貸發生微小變化也可能使我們面臨巨大的損失。

I still want to highlight that despite that, the credit performance of the 2023 vintages are significantly better and improved relatively to the '21 and '22 peaks in the range of 20% to 50% relative to those, and you can see a lot more of that details in our supplement. And the second piece I want to highlight is that based on what the markets that we currently have on the 2023s and the prior businesses, we do not expect any material impact on this -- on our performance relative to those vintages.

我仍然想強調的是，儘管如此，2023 年份的信用表現明顯更好，並且相對於 21 年和 22 年的峰值有所改善，增幅在 20% 至 50% 之間，您可以在我們的補充資料中看到更多細節。我想強調的第二點是，基於我們目前對 2023 年和之前業務的市場情況，我們預計這不會對我們相對於這些年份的表現產生任何重大影響。

All of that gives us confidence obviously together with all the other factors driving our guidance in our ability to deliver the GAAP net income positive for the year. We are providing more visibility in our supplement on what we are assuming in terms of potential impairments, if any, for 2025. In our supplement, I encourage you to look at that for more details.

所有這些顯然都給了我們信心，再加上其他推動我們今年 GAAP 淨收入正成長的因素。我們將在補充報告中更清楚地說明我們對 2025 年潛在損害（如果有的話）的假設。在我們的補充中，我鼓勵您查看更多詳細資訊。

Now, to your question around the approach on the valuation for those, as you know fair value is effectively based on a range of all different relevant assumptions that drive the changes in projected cash flows.

現在，關於您對這些估值方法的問題，如您所知，公允價值實際上是基於一系列推動預期現金流變動的不同相關假設。

These securities are now seasoned. If you think about the 2023, right, they season 12 to 18 months now approximately, which is basically the point where we can really start being predictive about end state losses and assumptions that we have to make three to four years out.

這些證券目前已成熟。如果你考慮一下 2023 年，那麼現在大約還有 12 到 18 個月的時間，這基本上是我們真正可以開始預測最終狀態損失和我們必須在三到四年後做出的假設的點。

So while we have some trends from the earlier vintages in 2023, we did warn about this in 3Q, but we had to go through the full process and get significantly more data at the end of the year to conduct the full testing assessment.

因此，雖然我們從 2023 年早期的年份中獲得了某些趨勢，但我們確實在第三季度對此發出了警告，但我們必須經歷整個過程並在年底獲得更多數據才能進行全面的測試評估。

What's more important, I think, is here to highlight the actions that we have taken to basically mitigate similar outcomes in the future, and those are driven by three things. The optimization of our ABS structures, the diversification of our funding sources, and obviously some improvement in the macro environment.

我認為，更重要的是強調我們已經採取的行動，從根本上減輕未來類似後果的發生，這些行動由三件事推動。我們的ABS結構不斷優化，資金來源日益多樣化，宏觀環境也明顯改善。

On the ABS structures, the structural improvements that we have validated by our AAA-rating in our [PL portfolio] and doubling our auto, all of that has lowered the cost of capital, and that's a permanent improvement in these structures.

在 ABS 結構方面，我們透過 [PL 投資組合] 中的 AAA 評級和雙倍的汽車評級驗證了結構性改進，所有這些都降低了資本成本，這是這些結構的永久性改進。

In addition, 25% to 50% of our funding is expected to come by non-ABS vehicles and therefore that require basically no capital to be put at risk. All of that lowers the absolute amount of capital that we put to use to fund our volume, which is significantly lower than it would have been relative to the 2023. And obviously the macro environment has improved, has been a tailwind, even though we do remain cautious about that. And interest rates are still at a very high level relative to historical levels, but all of that allows us to have a buffer in terms of the cost of capital that we're currently seeing relative to the expected return of the assets.

此外，預計我們的 25% 至 50% 的資金將來自非 ABS 工具，因此基本上不需要承擔任何資本風險。所有這些都降低了我們用於資助我們業務的絕對資本量，該資本量明顯低於 2023 年的水準。顯然宏觀環境已經改善，並形成了順風，儘管我們對此仍持謹慎態度。儘管相對於歷史水平，利率仍然處於非常高的水平，但所有這些都使我們能夠在目前看到的相對於資產預期回報的資本成本方面獲得緩衝。

All of that gives us very strong confidence, and this is why we're here today, guiding to positive GAAP net income as it relates to our 2025 performance.

所有這些都給了我們非常強烈的信心，這就是我們今天在這裡的原因，指導我們實現與 2025 年業績相關的正 GAAP 淨收入。

I will pass it over to Sanjiv for maybe some additional remarks.

我將把它交給 Sanjiv，也許他會做一些補充評論。

Yeah, I mean, basically EP and just to close it out briefly, but very importantly, the way I think about this, John, is the benefits of having leaned in to grow and develop a really solid operating business through a challenging funding period are quite clear. We see that, we've stood by our lending and our funding partners through the cycle with very good returns. We've now grown our FRLPC to very strong levels as you saw at 4.3%. we gained our AAA-rating through this process, significantly improved our ABS structure.

是的，我的意思是，基本上是 EP，只是簡短地結束一下，但非常重要的是，約翰，我對此的看法是，在充滿挑戰的融資期內，傾向於發展和發展真正穩固的運營業務的好處是相當明顯的。我們看到，在整個週期中，我們一直支持我們的貸款和融資合作夥伴，並獲得了非常好的回報。我們的 FRLPC 現在已成長至非常強勁的水平，如您所見，為 4.3%。我們透過這個過程獲得了 AAA 評級，顯著改善了我們的 ABS 結構。

We've strengthened the pipeline of potential partners. You've heard about US Bank, Klarna, OneMain, all of this was done as a result of leaning in; entered new asset classes, with significant payoff like POS as we noted last quarter and this quarter. And finally, diversified our funding sources beyond ABS to forward flows and pass throughs with huge institutional partners on both sides in Blue Owl and Castlelake. And of course net-net, what this has done to the operating business that we are generating today is very strong. And so now we are able to focus on growing it to '25 and '26.

我們加強了潛在合作夥伴的管道。你聽過美國銀行、Klarna、OneMain，所有這些都是傾斜的結果；進入了新的資產類別，並獲得了像我們上個季度和本季指出的 POS 那樣的顯著回報。最後，我們將資金來源多元化，除了 ABS 之外，還透過與 Blue Owl 和 Castlelake 等雙方的大型機構合作夥伴進行轉發和轉接。當然，總體而言，這對我們今天的營運業務產生了非常強勁的影響。所以現在我們可以集中精力將其發展到25年和26年。

David Scharf, Citizens JMP.

David Scharf，公民 JMP。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for thanks for taking my questions. Obviously demand in the pipeline remains very strong, so I'll just follow up with a couple follow on credit questions. Hey, first is, I guess for EP, I just want to make sure I understand the guidance correctly because I'm looking at the slide that has the -- slide 21 which has the scenarios about write downs in impairments in the loan portfolio.

是的，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。顯然，管道需求仍然非常強勁，因此我只想跟進幾個有關信貸的問題。嘿，首先，我想對於 EP，我只是想確保我正確理解了指導，因為我正在看幻燈片 21，其中有關於貸款組合中減值減記的情景。

It looks like scenario A is sort of driving your guidance. Am I led to believe that if expected cash flows actually perform in line with your forecasts, that you're -- that we'll have $100 million to $150 million more pre-tax income and then tax effective for GAAP? Is that how we're supposed to interpret slide 21 that this -- that inherent in the GAAP guidance is some very conservative assumptions around expected cash flows.

看起來場景 A 正在推動你的指導。我是否可以相信，如果預期現金流實際上符合您的預測，那麼我們的稅前收入將增加 1 億至 1.5 億美元，並且符合 GAAP 的稅收效果？這就是我們應該如何解釋幻燈片 21 的呢？ 即 GAAP 指南中固有的一些關於預期現金流的非常保守的假設。

Hi, thank you for the question. No, I think I would let me provide more clarity. If we expected any more losses on our existing portfolio, we would have obviously taken that. So the base case is what drives effectively our expectation for 2024. What we are doing is in our guidance, together with everything else. We're just using that scenario A, which provides an additional $100 million to $150 million potential impairments, if any, and that's what's basically driving our guidance.

你好，謝謝你的提問。不，我想我應該提供更清晰的解釋。如果我們預期現有投資組合會進一步遭受損失，我們顯然會承擔這項損失。因此，基本情況有效地推動了我們對 2024 年的預期。我們正在做的一切都是在我們的指導之下，與其他一切一起。我們只是使用情境 A，它提供了額外的 1 億到 1.5 億美元的潛在減損（如果有的話），這基本上就是我們指導的依據。

And that's, just to be clear, it's on the full year guidance for 2025, not 2Q.

需要明確的是，這是 2025 年全年指引，而不是第二季指引。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑薩克拉尼（Sanjay Sakhrani），KBW。

Hi, this is Steven Kwok, filling in for Sanjay. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow up around the network volume growth. It seems like there's a pretty wide range across, what you're guiding me to for 2025. Could you just talk about, what the current operating environment looks like and what are the factors that we should consider in terms of how you get to either end of the range? Thanks.

大家好，我是 Steven Kwok，取代 Sanjay。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想追蹤網路容量的成長情況。您為我指引的 2025 年目標似乎涵蓋的範圍很廣。您能否談談目前的營運環境是什麼樣的，以及在如何達到該範圍的兩端方面我們應該考慮哪些因素？謝謝。

Sure, so I think I would like to take your question to a little bit, a bigger question. I think that will frame exactly what you're trying to ask. I think the question is how Pagaya thinking about growth. And there is a very important piece that lending to that is actually building them budget or the guidance as you see it now and giving us the north star of what we're solving for over the cycle.

當然，我想我可以把你的問題稍微擴大一點，成為一個更大的問題。我想這就能準確地概括出你想問的問題。我認為問題在於帕加亞如何看待成長。其中非常重要的一點是，向這些機構提供貸款實際上就是在為他們建立預算或指導，就像您現在看到的那樣，並為我們提供在整個週期內要解決的問題的北極星。

So the long story short of it is that we perceived ourselves as a network. When you perceived yourself as a network and not an originator, what we're actually providing or the way we grow is either to get more customers, our lending partners, or to sell to our lending partners more products such as the pre-screen that Sanjiv has shared over the phone call, and there are many more.

長話短說，我們將自己視為一個網路。當你將自己視為一個網絡而不是發起人時，我們實際提供的內容或我們發展的方式要么是獲得更多的客戶，要么是我們的貸款合作夥伴，要么向我們的貸款合作夥伴銷售更多的產品，比如 Sanjiv 在電話中分享的預篩選，還有更多。

When you take these top of the funnel type of growth activities which are not driven by changes so much in macro, we are trying to build an over the cycle business that would provide products and services that are relevant to lenders in any environment.

當您採取這些不受宏觀變化驅動的漏斗頂端成長活動時，我們正在嘗試建立一個跨週期的業務，以提供與任何環境下的貸方相關的產品和服務。

And that we think about it as a steady state of growth of a 20% CAGR over the cycle regardless of the different pieces and will not bore you on this phone call, but there are many other factors that in different environments are balancing themselves out to make sure that only the relevant piece is the increase of the top of the funnel, which is how much we are solving for our partners and our -- and the different products to our partners.

而我們認為這是一個穩定成長的狀態，無論不同的部分如何，整個週期的複合年增長率都達到 20%，我們不會在這個電話中讓您感到無聊，但還有許多其他因素在不同的環境中自我平衡，以確保只有相關的部分是漏斗頂部的增長，也就是我們為合作夥伴解決了多少問題以及為我們的合作夥伴提供不同的產品。

Inside of that, the levers of the way you can think about it all the pulls and the push are how good our models are and therefore we are [progressing] them. How good are the products and how much we can sell off them, how good the team is executing into getting more partners, how cheap our cost of capital is so we can actually later sell the loans in a more profitable way or in the same time could approve more loans because our cost of capital is lower.

在這其中，你可以思考所有拉動和推動的槓桿，它們都與我們的模型有多好有關，因此我們正在推動它們。產品有多好，我們能賣出多少，團隊在獲得更多合作夥伴方面的執行力有多強，我們的資本成本有多便宜，以便我們以後可以以更有利可圖的方式出售貸款，或者同時可以批准更多的貸款，因為我們的資本成本較低。

But I think the more interesting piece and that I would love Sanjiv to take is how our customers' needs have changed that is really talking to the maturity of the company and the stages. Sanjiv, you want to take it?

但我認為更有趣的部分，也是我希望 Sanjiv 能夠了解的部分，是我們的客戶需求發生了怎樣的變化，這實際上反映了公司和階段的成熟度。Sanjiv，你想拿走它嗎？

Sure. I'll just say a couple of things. Gal's pretty much address it. I'll just say a couple of additional things. Number one, our partners today are large public companies. We are a large proportion of what they do on the PL side. Predictability to our partners is extremely important. So instead of going all in and showing spikes and troughs and growth, we show predictability in our growth, and that has been one of the reasons why we have given the outlook that we have. That's number 1.

當然。我只想說幾件事。Gal 幾乎已經解決了這個問題。我只想補充幾點。第一，我們今天的合作夥伴都是大型上市公司。我們在 PL 方面所做的工作佔了很大一部分。對我們的合作夥伴來說可預測性極為重要。因此，我們不會全力以赴，展現高峰、低谷和成長，而是展現成長的可預測性，這也是我們給出上述前景的原因之一。這是第一點。

Number 2, I would say just from an operating environment standpoint, you asked about the operating environment and wider range. We see that consumer cycles are relatively stable in 2024 compared to 2023 and '25 seems to be pretty stable as well. Our personal loan delinquencies are down. Our auto delinquencies are largely stable, and so we've taken all that into consideration.

第二，我想說，僅從營運環境的角度來看，您詢問的是營運環境和更廣泛的範圍。我們發現，與 2023 年相比，2024 年的消費週期相對穩定，而 2025 年似乎也相當穩定。我們的個人貸款拖欠率下降了。我們的汽車拖欠率基本上穩定，因此我們將所有這些都考慮在內了。

Including the fact that we don't -- we have not accounted for any rate drops, and so we've been in our opinion, somewhat conservative but extremely responsible.

事實上，我們沒有考慮任何利率下降，因此我們認為，我們的做法有些保守，但卻極為負責任。

Pete Christensen, CI. Please go ahead.

皮特·克里斯滕森，CI。請繼續。

Good morning. Thanks for that question. EP, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, I just I was just hoping you can reiterate it. I think you're able to overcome some redemption issues that you've had, potentially with these marks, and then as a quick follow up, just curious how you see the mix of network volume evolving this year. I would assume higher degree of point-of-sale could translate to lower risk of -- on the risk retention side just some thoughts there would be helpful. Thank you.

早安.謝謝你的提問。EP，我想你在準備好的發言中提到過，我只是希望你能重申這一點。我認為您能夠克服所遇到的一些贖回問題，可能透過這些標記，然後作為快速的跟進，只是好奇您如何看待今年網路容量組合的發展。我認為更高程度的銷售點可以降低風險——在風險保留方面，一些想法可能會有所幫助。謝謝。

Sure, just to clarify a little bit on your first point, what was highlighting is that in the evaluation that we did for a fair value for Q4, some of that is coming through early redemption rights that we have on some of those securities. We didn't have any issues or anything, so just provide some clarity.

當然，只是想稍微澄清一下你的第一點，需要強調的是，在我們對第四季度的公允價值進行的評估中，部分公允價值來自於我們對部分證券的提前贖回權。我們沒有遇到任何問題，因此只需提供一些澄清資訊即可。

But moving on to the important question, as we think about the volume guidance again as we have been doing in the past, you need to appreciate the fundamentals of our model. We don't grow by chasing credit growth or chasing conversion, we grow by adding more partners to the network. So when you think about the higher end of our range on the volume side, effectively that would imply that some of the newer partners that we have announced will accelerate more than we would versus the lower end of the range, which means we will take a little bit more time for those relationships to mature. That's a little bit hard to think about the volume growth.

但回到重要的問題，當我們再次思考交易量指引時，就像我們過去所做的那樣，你需要了解我們模型的基本原理。我們的發展不是透過追求信用成長或追求轉換來實現的，而是透過在網路中添加更多合作夥伴來實現的。因此，當你考慮我們在數量方面的範圍的高端時，這實際上意味著我們宣布的一些較新的合作夥伴將比我們在範圍的低端加速更快，這意味著我們需要更多的時間來使這些關係成熟。考慮到產量成長，這有點難以想像。

And then in terms of areas of investment and as you think about the different asset classes, personal loans will continue to grow, but most of the investment and call it higher ROI and growth potential that we see is in our auto platform and POS and maybe Sanjiv can add a little bit more color to those.

然後就投資領域而言，當你考慮不同的資產類別時，個人貸款將繼續增長，但我們看到的大部分投資，以及所謂的更高的投資回報率和增長潛力都在我們的汽車平台和 POS 中，也許 Sanjiv 可以為這些增添更多色彩。

Sure. I mean, in the last quarter we gave some indication of how much we would grow as you can see we've delivered that. The exit rate on our POS, 24% year on year growth and 176% sequential growth demonstrates the fact that we will deliver on POS what we are seeing.

當然。我的意思是，在上個季度，我們對我們的成長幅度做出了一些暗示，正如你所看到的，我們已經實現了這一目標。我們的 POS 退出率年增 24%，環比成長 176%，這表明我們將在 POS 上實現我們所看到的目標。

And right now we are like talking to a bunch of large POS players both amongst regional banks as well as leading POS lenders. I should emphasize that we have also got Elavon in addition to Klarna and frankly we've been very conservative on the Elavon's numbers. In 2025, we will grow with them. They're a very successful partner and so we've been somewhat conservative on our numbers, but extremely bullish on US.

目前，我們正在與許多大型 POS 參與者進行談判，其中包括地區銀行，也包括領先的 POS 貸款機構。我應該強調的是，除了 Klarna 之外，我們還有 Elavon，坦白說，我們對 Elavon 的數字非常保守。2025年，我們將與他們一起成長。他們是一個非常成功的合作夥伴，因此我們對我們的數據持有些保守的態度，但對美國卻極為看好。

Joseph Vafi, Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity 的 Joseph Vafi。

Sorry about that. Thanks guys for all the color and nice to see the outlook for 2025. Just wondering if it's too early to have, maybe kind of a more normalized fair value adjustment kind of margin or, percentage of FRLPC or network volume. As we move forward and maybe if we've gotten past, some of these rough bumps, try to think about that, on a normalized basis, over the medium term. Thanks.

很抱歉。感謝大家的精彩分享，很高興看到 2025 年的展望。只是想知道現在是否為時過早，也許是一種更規範的公允價值調整利潤率或 FRLPC 或網路容量百分比。當我們繼續前進時，也許我們已經克服了一些困難，試著在中期內以正常化的方式思考這些問題。謝謝。

So Joe, it's Gal here. I think in the numbers there is some baked assumptions that are relatively stable numbers that you saw in the past. We are not yet in the place to characterize it in a percent, et cetera. We are walking through that, but you should assume that in the GAAP net income full year guidance, there is some part of it and post the call we can take it to the different places to see where it stand.

喬，我是加爾。我認為這些數字中包含一些固定的假設，這些假設是你過去看到的相對穩定的數字。我們還不能用百分比等等來表示它。我們正在討論這個問題，但你應該假設在 GAAP 淨收入全年指引中，有其中的一部分，並且在通話後我們可以將其帶到不同的地方以查看其立場。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I will now have the conference over to Gal Krubiner for his closing comments.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，這是最後一個問題。現在我將請 Gal Krubiner 作閉幕發言。

So thank you everyone for coming. I want to hand it over to EP to say a few closing remarks for this session.

感謝大家的到來。我想將會議交給 EP，讓他在本次會議結束時做幾點結束語。

Thanks, Gal, and allow me a little bit to take you a little bit through a longer journey that we have delivered this year. This has been a very challenging grow with a lot of surprises, tough decisions, and highly instructive learnings. We delivered major accomplishments throughout the year and with a new management team in place, but the same vision of building a disruptive business that can deliver sustainable growth through the cycle.

謝謝，加爾，請允許我稍微帶你回顧我們今年所經歷的一段更長的旅程。這是一個非常具有挑戰性的成長過程，充滿了許多驚喜、艱難的決定和極具啟發性的經驗。我們在全年取得了重大成就，並組建了新的管理團隊，但我們的願景是一樣的，那就是建立一個能夠在整個週期中實現可持續增長的顛覆性業務。

Let me walk you through what we have accomplished this year and what we have delivered. In Q4, we did warn about the impairments. We said this 2023 vintages will be behind us with no future expected material, and we strongly believe we are delivering that today.

讓我向您介紹一下我們今年所取得的成就和成果。在第四季度，我們確實對這些損害發出了警告。我們說過，2023 年份的葡萄酒將會成為過去，未來不會再有預期的材料，我們堅信我們今天正在實現這一目標。

In the beginning of the year we set two goals: cash flow positive and GAAP net income positive, and the pillars for that were through higher fees, more operating leverage, and capital efficiency. We delivered 100 -- 130 basis point improvement in FRLPC. That is $130 million more profit on our $10 billion of volume.

年初，我們設定了兩個目標：現金流為正和 GAAP 淨收入為正，而實現這兩個目標的支柱是透過更高的費用、更高的營運槓桿和資本效率。我們在 FRLPC 方面實現了 100 到 130 個基點的改進。這意味著我們的 100 億美元銷量上又多出了 1.3 億美元的利潤。

On operating leverage in Tokyo, we took action and delivered $25 million of annualized savings with core operating expenses as a percent of FRLPC coming down from 67% to 49% a year ago. In 2Q earnings, we indicated that there is room for improvement on our interest expense, and we delivered again $30 million in savings through refinancing transactions that we executed in 3Q.

在東京的營業槓桿方面，我們採取了行動，實現了 2,500 萬美元的年度化節約，核心營業費用佔 FRLPC 的百分比從一年前的 67% 下降到 49%。在第二季的收益中，我們表明我們的利息支出還有改善空間，並且我們透過第三季執行的再融資交易再次實現了 3000 萬美元的節省。

On the capital efficiency and diversification, in 1Q we said we will get forward flows and pass throughs and we delivered over $3 billion in forward flow programs and a robust pass-through program as well. In addition, we optimized our ABS structure. All of that basically led to cash required to fund our volume down by 200 basis points versus 4Q 2023. That is the $200 million less cash required per $10 billion of volume and still with a buffer.

在資本效率和多樣化方面，我們在第一季表示，我們將獲得正向流動和直通，我們還提供了超過 30 億美元的正向流動計劃和強勁的直通計劃。此外，我們也優化了ABS結構。所有這些基本上都導致為我們的融資量提供資金所需的現金與 2023 年第四季相比下降了 200 個基點。也就是說，每 100 億美元的交易量所需的現金就會減少 2 億美元，而且仍有緩衝。

On the business side, we said we were going to add new lending partners and we delivered the relationship with OneMain and Elavon. We also launched new products. We expanded existing relationships into new asset classes. All of that coupled with our strong pipeline of new partners, we delivered the seed for future sustainable growth.

在業務方面，我們表示我們將增加新的貸款合作夥伴，並且我們與 OneMain 和 Elavon 建立了合作關係。我們也推出了新產品。我們將現有的關係擴展到新的資產類別。所有這些，加上我們強大的新合作夥伴管道，我們為未來的永續成長播下了種子。

We delivered positive cash flows, we improved our balance sheet and created more access to liquidity to eliminate concerns for future equity [raising needs]. Now we're giving you guidance on GAAP net income positive, and we're here again to deliver.

我們實現了正現金流，改善了資產負債表，創造了更多的流動性管道，以消除對未來股權的擔憂[籌集需求]。現在，我們為您提供有關 GAAP 淨收入為正的指導，並且我們再次為您服務。

Thank you very much for joining us today.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference of Pagaya Technologies has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，Pagaya Technologies 的會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。