Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Pagaya 3Q 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Pagaya 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Josh Fagen. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興向大家介紹你們的主持人喬許費根。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Pagaya's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our business and results are Gal Krubiner, Chief Executive Officer of Pagaya; Sanjiv Das, President; and Evangelos Perros, Chief Financial Officer. You can find the materials that accompany our prepared remarks and a replay of today's webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.pagaya.com.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Pagaya 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起談論我們的業務和業績的是 Pagaya 執行長 Gal Krubiner；桑吉夫·達斯，總裁；艾萬傑洛斯‧佩羅斯 (Evangelos Perros)，財務長。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到我們準備好的評論的材料以及今天網絡廣播的重播，網址為investor.pagaya.com。

Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and forecasts with respect to, among other things, our operations, the financial performance, including our financial outlook for the third quarter and full year of 2024. Our actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements.

我們今天的言論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們目前對我們的營運、財務表現（包括我們對 2024 年第三季和全年的財務前景）的預期和預測。我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause these results to differ materially from our expectations include, but are not limited to, those risks described in today's press release and our filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. Please refer to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, including our 10-K, 10-Q, and other reports for a more detailed discussion of these factors.

可能導致這些結果與我們的預期產生重大差異的因素包括但不限於今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請參閱我們不時向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K、10-Q 和其他報告，以更詳細地討論這些因素。

Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, fee revenue less production costs or FRLPC, FRLPC percentage, and core operating expenses will be discussed on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available to the extent available without unreasonable efforts in our earnings release and other materials, which are posted on our Investor Relations website.

此外，電話會議還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後 EBITDA 利潤率、調整後淨利潤、費用收入減去生產成本或 FRLPC、FRLPC 百分比和核心營運費用。在我們的收益發布和其他資料（發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上）中，我們可以盡可能地與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標進行調節，而無需做出不合理的努力。

We encourage you to review the shareholder letter, which was furnished with the SEC on Form 8-K today for detailed commentary on our business and performance in conjunction with the accompanying earnings supplement and press release.

我們鼓勵您閱讀今天向 SEC 提供的 8-K 表格中的股東信函，其中包括對我們業務和業績的詳細評論以及隨附的收益補充和新聞稿。

With that, let me turn the call over to Gal.

那麼，讓我把電話轉給蓋爾。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I hope you had a chance to read our shareholder letter. With our strong third-quarter results, Pagaya is at an approximate annual rate of $1 billion of revenues, $400 million of fee revenue less production costs, and $220 million in adjusted EBITDA. Pagaya is now reaching the next level of scale and profitability.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我希望您有機會閱讀我們的股東信。憑藉我們強勁的第三季業績，Pagaya 的年收入約為 10 億美元，扣除製作成本的費用收入為 4 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.2 億美元。Pagaya 現在的規模和獲利能力正達到新的水平。

This is the result of both increasing demand for our products and laser-focused execution of our financial goals to improve fee generation, funding efficiency, and drive economies of scale, all of which sets Pagaya to deliver positive total cash flow and GAAP profitability during 2025. The momentum of the business is driven by the value that our unique product brings to our lenders as they are always looking to improve the value they can offer to their customers.

這是我們產品需求不斷增長的結果，也是我們專注於執行財務目標的結果，以提高費用產生、融資效率並推動規模經濟，所有這些都使 Pagaya 在 2025 年實現正的總現金流和 GAAP 盈利能力。我們獨特的產品為貸款人帶來的價值推動了業務的發展勢頭，因為他們一直在尋求提高為客戶提供的價值。

The use of our product since we started has generated over $24 billion of loans with approximately 2 million new customers added or retained by our partners. As our network grows and our data moat is becoming bigger, we are enabling our partners to acquire and serve more customers with each application they are sending our way. The engine is perpetual and only getting more powerful with time.

自從我們開始使用我們的產品以來，已經產生了超過 240 億美元的貸款，我們的合作夥伴增加或保留了約 200 萬新客戶。隨著我們的網路不斷發展，資料護城河變得越來越大，我們使我們的合作夥伴能夠透過他們向我們發送的每個應用程式來獲取和服務更多的客戶。該引擎是永恆的，並且隨著時間的推移只會變得更加強大。

Existing lending partners are looking to Pagaya to play a critical role in their 2025 growth plan. As part of these plans, partners are asking for more of our products, creating additional revenue opportunities for both Pagaya and our partners, and in return, enhancing the lifetime value of their customers' relationships. We expect next year to have over eight relationships generating over $500 million per year of network volume, channeling the power of our existing customer franchises.

現有貸款合作夥伴希望 Pagaya 在其 2025 年成長計畫中發揮關鍵作用。作為這些計劃的一部分，合作夥伴要求更多我們的產品，為 Pagaya 和我們的合作夥伴創造額外的收入機會，作為回報，提高客戶關係的終身價值。我們預計明年將有超過 8 個合作夥伴，每年產生超過 5 億美元的網路流量，從而發揮我們現有客戶特許經營權的力量。

Growth of our pipeline is a key driver of our long-term growth. In line with our strategy, we continue to make inroads with the largest bank in the country. The onboarding of a top five bank in our point-of-sale vertical continues to progress well. Additionally, following multiple quarters of onboarding and integration, I'm also happy to report that Elavon, US Bank's point-of-sale arm, is now live on our network.

我們管道的成長是我們長期成長的關鍵驅動力。根據我們的策略，我們繼續與該國最大的銀行取得進展。我們的銷售點垂直領域排名前五的銀行的入職工作繼續進展順利。此外，經過多個季度的入職和整合，我還很高興地報告，合眾銀行的銷售點部門 Elavon 現已在我們的網路上上線。

In terms of future prospective lending partners, we are currently in term-sheet-level discussions with several other top 20 lenders across personal loan, point of sale, and auto. And we are expecting to be able to announce some of these names next year. Sanjiv will speak more about our pipeline and product expansion momentarily.

就未來的潛在貸款合作夥伴而言，我們目前正在與個人貸款、銷售點和汽車領域的其他幾家排名前 20 的貸款機構進行條款清單層級的討論。我們預計明年能夠宣布其中一些名字。Sanjiv 稍後將更多地談論我們的管道和產品擴展。

I could not be more optimistic about the opportunity in front of us. Between the ongoing expansion of our network, combined with the improving macroeconomic backdrop, the conditions are right to extend access to credit for more consumers. As important as the growth opportunity is our laser focus on profitability and cash flow generation. We transitioned Pagaya this past year to a business that can sustainably convert revenues into profits and cash flows. I want to be clear. This is without raising external equity capital.

我對擺在我們面前的機會感到非常樂觀。我們網路的持續擴張，加上宏觀經濟背景的改善，為更多消費者提供信貸服務的條件已經具備。與成長機會同樣重要的是我們對獲利能力和現金流產生的高度關注。去年，我們將 Pagaya 轉型為一家能夠永續地將收入轉化為利潤和現金流的企業。我想澄清一下。這是在沒有籌集外部股本的情況下進行的。

All of that brings me to our core 2024 financial strategy to improve fee generation, funding efficiency, and drive greater economy of scale. I will split this into three areas of focus. First, we are earning more fees on every dollar of network volume we generate, reaching a record level this quarter. Cost savings has amplified the benefit of higher fees on our bottom-line results.

所有這些讓我想到了我們 2024 年的核心財務策略，即提高費用產生、融資效率並推動更大的規模經濟。我將把它分為三個重點領域。首先，我們每產生一美元的網路流量就能賺取更多的費用，本季達到了創紀錄的水平。成本節約放大了更高費用對我們利潤的好處。

Next, in terms of our funding, we have demonstrated consistent improvement in our ABS execution as well as adding more diversified funding sources to our network. We have achieved this through structural changes in our ABS program; for example, achieving a AAA rating on our personal loan program and a AA rating on our auto loan program. We have also broadened our funding channels to forward flow, managed funds and pass-throughs.

接下來，在融資方面，我們在 ABS 執行方面表現出持續改進，並為我們的網路增加了更多元化的融資來源。我們透過 ABS 計劃的結構性變革實現了這一目標；例如，我們的個人貸款計劃獲得 AAA 評級，汽車貸款計劃獲得 AA 評級。我們也拓寬了融資管道，包括轉發資金、管理資金和過手資金。

All of this resulted in a material improvement in our both funding costs and the lowest risk retention level in over two years. In addition to that, this has created a significant cushion against future impairments on our risk retention assets. Lastly, our balance sheet that has become much stronger as a result of a series of transactions we announced in September to refinance high-cost debt, reduce interest expenses, and unlock additional balance sheet liquidity. EP will discuss the significance of this in a moment.

所有這些都使我們的融資成本得到了實質改善，並將風險保留水準降至兩年多來的最低水準。除此之外，這也為我們的風險自留資產未來的減損提供了重要的緩衝。最後，由於我們在 9 月宣布了一系列交易，為高成本債務再融資、減少利息支出並釋放額外的資產負債表流動性，我們的資產負債表變得更加強大。EP 稍後將討論這一點的重要性。

In parallel to these initiatives, we continue to iterate on our underwriting model, leveraging our unparalleled and growing data advantage. The improvement in performance from adjusting our model over the last 18 months has helped us to demonstrate significant stronger and stable credit performance.

在這些舉措的同時，我們繼續迭代我們的核保模式，利用我們無與倫比且不斷增長的數據優勢。過去 18 個月調整模型帶來的績效改善幫助我們展現了顯著更強、更穩定的信用表現。

All in all, we have created a sustainably profitable business with growing fees, increasing operating leverage, and capital efficiency. 2025 will showcase the true earnings potential of the business as our growth continues and the negative impact of all the risk retention positions are behind us, which we expect by the end of 2024.

總而言之，我們創建了一個可持續盈利的業務，費用不斷增加，營運槓桿和資本效率不斷提高。隨著我們的持續成長，所有風險保留部位的負面影響都將在 2024 年底前消除，我們將在 2025 年展示該業務的真正獲利潛力。

As with any business, the successful build-out of our franchise came with a significant investment. The cost of that investment, some of which was credit-related and is impacting our financial results today has delivered massive returns. We grew our network of top lenders and institutional investors, enhanced our underwriting capabilities with a richer data set, and are strongly positioned to take advantage of the improving environment.

與任何企業一樣，我們的特許經營權的成功建立需要大量投資。這項投資的成本（其中一些與信貸相關並影響我們今天的財務表現）已帶來了巨大的回報。我們擴大了頂級貸款機構和機構投資者的網絡，透過更豐富的數據集增強了我們的承保能力，並處於充分利用不斷改善的環境的有利地位。

I am proud of our team for sticking to the vision on our journey to offer one of the most in-demand lending technology solutions in the US and become a multiproduct lending technology enterprise. I have never been more excited as we turn the corner to a year when we start to demonstrate the true earning power of our company in 2025. To close, I could not be more confident about the future of our company and our ability to consistently deliver value to US consumer, our partners, our investors, and our shareholders.

我為我們的團隊堅持我們的願景感到自豪，即提供美國最受歡迎的貸款技術解決方案之一，並成為多產品貸款技術企業。當我們在 2025 年開始展示我們公司真正的獲利能力時，我從未如此興奮過。最後，我對我們公司的未來以及我們持續為美國消費者、合作夥伴、投資者和股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。

With that, I will hand it over to Sanjiv to say a few remarks.

說到這裡，我將把它交給 Sanjiv 說幾句話。

Thanks, Gal. And good morning, everyone. I want to spend a few minutes on our multi-pronged and focused growth strategy and provide an update on our progress with new and existing partners as well as exciting developments on our new products. It is important to understand how our products do more for our partners than just growing their originations through incremental loan conversion.

謝謝，加爾。大家早安。我想花幾分鐘時間介紹我們多管齊下、重點突出的成長策略，並介紹我們與新舊合作夥伴的最新進展以及我們新產品的令人興奮的發展。重要的是要了解我們的產品如何為我們的合作夥伴做更多的事情，而不僅僅是透過增量貸款轉換來增加他們的來源。

Our products are increasingly being used as a catalyst for additional growth within the portfolio of our existing partners. We are helping our partners to expand the breadth of credit solutions they can offer their existing customers without taking the associated balance sheet risk. The most common benefit our partners are looking for is in increasing the lifetime value of a customer. This includes retention of existing customers and increasing additional revenue opportunities by offering credit products responsibly.

我們的產品越來越多地被用作現有合作夥伴產品組合進一步成長的催化劑。我們正在幫助我們的合作夥伴擴大他們可以為現有客戶提供的信貸解決方案的範圍，而無需承擔相關的資產負債表風險。我們的合作夥伴尋求的最常見的好處是增加客戶的終身價值。這包括透過負責任地提供信貸產品來保留現有客戶並增加額外收入機會。

Additionally, in the case of banks, retaining valuable depositor relationships and creating fee-based revenue is of great importance to their growth, especially in a regulatorily constrained environment. As a result, we are seeing Pagaya's products being increasingly offered to existing customers within our lending partners, the potential of which is multiplicative.

此外，就銀行而言，保留有價值的儲戶關係並創造收費收入對其成長非常重要，特別是在監管受限的環境中。因此，我們看到 Pagaya 的產品越來越多地提供給我們貸款合作夥伴的現有客戶，其潛力是倍增的。

At this time, we are witnessing an increasingly normalizing macroeconomic backdrop. This is driving banks and lenders to more vigorously compete for consumers and valuable deposit funding that is so critical to the stability and growth of their businesses. These enterprises are increasingly leaning on Pagaya to grow and strengthen their product offerings with existing customers.

目前，我們正目睹宏觀經濟日益正常化。這促使銀行和貸方更加積極地爭取消費者和寶貴的存款資金，這對其業務的穩定和成長至關重要。這些企業越來越依賴 Pagaya 來發展和加強與現有客戶的產品供應。

In fact, because of this phenomenon in the third quarter, we surpassed a record 200 billion of quarterly application volume. And indeed, as our 31 partners are finalizing their plans for 2025, we see that Pagaya's products are increasingly an integral part of their growth strategy. This tailwind from existing partners will result in propelling Pagaya's growth in 2025 and beyond.

事實上，由於第三季的這一現象，我們的季度申請量突破了創紀錄的2000億。事實上，隨著我們的 31 個合作夥伴最終確定 2025 年的計劃，我們看到 Pagaya 的產品越來越成為他們成長策略不可或缺的一部分。來自現有合作夥伴的推動力將推動 Pagaya 在 2025 年及以後的成長。

Turning to new partnerships, our pipeline is strong, and it includes recognizable and notable brands across all asset classes. First, I'd like to discuss some highlights of structural changes we are witnessing in our pipeline. We are seeing exceptionally high levels of demand for our point-of-sale product, comprising roughly one-third of our pipeline. This includes a mix of great global payments brands, major money center banks, and regional banks.

談到新的合作夥伴關係，我們的管道很強大，其中包括所有資產類別的知名品牌。首先，我想討論一下我們正在經歷的結構性變化的一些亮點。我們看到對我們的銷售點產品的需求異常高，約占我們產品線的三分之一。其中包括優秀的全球支付品牌、主要貨幣中心銀行和區域銀行。

The other notable change is growing demand from regional banks. In light of continued regulatory uncertainty and balance sheet constraints, a large number of regional banks have approached us to partner with them to create fee-driven revenue growth and boost customer value. Currently, one-third of our new partner pipeline is comprised of large regional banks across all asset classes. We look forward to helping these banks continue to serve the local and regional needs of American communities.

另一個顯著的變化是地區銀行的需求不斷增長。鑑於持續的監管不確定性和資產負債表限制，大量區域銀行已與我們接洽，希望與他們合作，以創造費用驅動的收入成長並提高客戶價值。目前，我們三分之一的新合作夥伴管道由跨所有資產類別的大型區域銀行組成。我們期待幫助這些銀行繼續滿足美國社區的本地和區域需求。

And now turning to growth from existing partners, starting with our point-of-sale business, our volumes grew by 67% year on year and 51% sequentially this quarter, and that's ahead of the real ramp in this business. Our partnership with Klarna is now at a point where we expect a significant ramp in volumes. We are working to include additional products that are focused on larger ticket size and longer-duration loans.

現在轉向現有合作夥伴的成長，從我們的銷售點業務開始，本季我們的銷量同比增長了 67%，環比增長了 51%，這領先於該業務的實際增長。我們與 Klarna 的合作關係目前正處於我們預計銷售量將大幅成長的階段。我們正在努力納入專注於較大票據金額和較長期限貸款的其他產品。

Elavon, the US Bank point-of-sale financing arm, has completed tech onboarding and will begin to contribute to our results in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we are currently in late stages of onboarding the payments business of a top five money center bank. The auto lending sector has faced challenging conditions over the last couple of years with volatility in both the macroeconomic backdrop and vehicle values. Returns are now more stable, and our partners are looking to Pagaya to achieve more normalized growth expectations.

美國銀行銷售點融資部門 Elavon 已完成技術導入，並將在第四季度開始為我們的業績做出貢獻。此外，我們目前正處於進入前五大貨幣中心銀行支付業務的後期階段。過去幾年，隨著宏觀經濟背景和車輛價值的波動，汽車貸款產業面臨充滿挑戰的環境。現在回報更加穩定，我們的合作夥伴期待Pagaya實現更正常化的成長預期。

We are mainly focused on premier lenders on our platforms such as Ally, OneMain, and Westlake. Over the next 12 months, we expect noticeable growth in this market with a focus on extremely prudent underwriting. Personal loans, which are currently our flagship asset class, has now achieved our company's highest FRLPC percentage of 6.6% in the third quarter, demonstrating the value we bring to our partners. Overall partner demand has increased, a trend which we expect to continue into 2025.

我們主要關注我們平台上的優質貸款機構，例如 Ally、OneMain 和 Westlake。在接下來的 12 個月中，我們預計該市場將出現顯著成長，重點是極其審慎的承保。個人貸款是我們目前的旗艦資產類別，第三季已達到我們公司最高的 FRLPC 百分比 6.6%，展示了我們為合作夥伴帶來的價值。合作夥伴的整體需求增加，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2025 年。

But before I hand it over to EP, I want to take a moment to discuss our product roadmap, specifically our prescreen product. This is a product I'm extremely excited about based on our early successes. This product is designed to enable connected partners to offer Pagaya products to their existing book of customers, creating more lending opportunities across other segments.

但在將其交給 EP 之前，我想花點時間討論一下我們的產品路線圖，特別是我們的預篩選產品。基於我們早期的成功，我對這個產品感到非常興奮。該產品旨在使互聯合作夥伴能夠向其現有客戶提供 Pagaya 產品，從而在其他細分市場創造更多貸款機會。

In the third quarter, we expanded the reach of our prescreen offering from one to two live partners, and we have seven more in the pipeline. We expect a ramp in integration and utilization of this offering, which can ultimately be leveraged across all our franchise of 31 lenders. What I'm most excited about is that the prescreen product epitomizes the power of Pagaya's network to use existing connectivity and trust to drive further lifetime value to all our partners. And when our partners win, we win.

在第三季度，我們將預篩選服務的範圍從一個現場合作夥伴擴大到兩個，我們還有七個正在籌備中。我們預計該產品的整合和利用將得到提升，最終可以在我們 31 家貸款機構的所有特許經營中得到利用。最令我興奮的是，預篩選產品體現了 Pagaya 網路的力量，利用現有的連結和信任為我們所有合作夥伴帶來進一步的終身價值。當我們的合作夥伴獲勝時，我們也獲勝。

With that, let me now hand over to EP to discuss our financial results.

現在，讓我請 EP 討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Sanjiv. And good morning, everyone. We reported third-quarter total revenue of $257 million, fee revenue less production costs of $100 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $56 million. Before I walk through this quarter's results, I want to discuss the progress we made to achieve our two key financial milestones, sustainable total cash flow generation, and GAAP profitability, which we expect to reach during 2025. This progress is due to focused execution on our financial strategy that we set out at the beginning of the year.

謝謝你，桑吉夫。大家早安。我們公佈的第三季總收入為 2.57 億美元，費用收入減去製作成本為 1 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 5,600 萬美元。在介紹本季度的業績之前，我想討論一下我們在實現兩個關鍵財務里程碑方面取得的進展，即可持續的總現金流生成和 GAAP 盈利能力，我們預計將在 2025 年實現這一目標。這項進展歸功於我們年初制定的財務策略的集中執行。

First, on unit economics, third-quarter fee revenue less production cost was a record $100 million at 4.3% of network volume with increased fees across multiple partners and channels. Next, on operating leverage, we took action to reduce core operating expenses by approximately $25 million annually, a portion of which was reflected in the third quarter, driving improved overall operating efficiency.

首先，就單位經濟效益而言，第三季費用收入減去製作成本達到創紀錄的 1 億美元，佔網路量的 4.3%，多個合作夥伴和管道的費用增加。接下來，在營運槓桿方面，我們採取行動，每年減少核心營運費用約2500萬美元，其中一部分已在第三季度得到體現，帶動整體營運效率的提高。

In terms of capital efficiency, we've optimized our ABS structures and diversified our funding sources to lower the use of our capital while reducing the potential for future impairments related to our risk retention portfolio. Last, we optimized our corporate capital structure and derisked our business. We achieved this by paying down expensive debt and unlocking liquidity through the release of securities that serve as collateral against that debt.

在資本效率方面，我們優化了資產支持證券結構並多元化了融資來源，以降低資本使用率，同時降低與風險自留組合相關的未來減損的可能性。最後，優化企業資本結構，降低業務風險。我們透過償還昂貴的債務並透過發行作為債務抵押品的證券釋放流動性來實現這一目標。

In addition, the debt paydown is expected to reduce interest expense by approximately $30 million, an opportunity we highlighted on our second quarter earnings conference call. We have positioned our company to leverage demand for our products and to produce sustainable and profitable growth. This will become increasingly evident as we enter 2025.

此外，債務償還預計將減少約 3,000 萬美元的利息支出，這是我們在第二季財報電話會議上強調的機會。我們將公司定位為利用對我們產品的需求並實現可持續和盈利的成長。進入 2025 年，這一點將變得越來越明顯。

In 2024, we recognized losses related to vintages originated in 2023 and prior when capital market conditions were much more challenging. Based on the seasoning of these vintages, we expect to book the majority of any remaining fair value adjustments on these securities in the fourth quarter of 2024. This, coupled with the cushion we have created in our portfolio against future losses, further supports our path to GAAP net income profitability, which we expect to reach during 2025.

2024 年，我們確認了與 2023 年及之前資本市場條件更具挑戰性的年份相關的損失。根據這些年份的情況，我們預計將在 2024 年第四季對這些證券的大部分剩餘公允價值調整進行登記。再加上我們在投資組合中為未來損失創建的緩衝，進一步支持我們實現 GAAP 淨利潤盈利能力，我們預計將在 2025 年實現這一目標。

Turning to third-quarter results, network volume of $2.4 billion grew by 11% year over year with continued strength in our personal loan and POS businesses, up 15% and 67% year over year, respectively. Total revenue and other income grew 21% year over year to $257 million, with revenue from fees up 24% to $249 million. Fee revenue less production costs grew 38% year over year to $100 million, which was meaningfully higher than the growth in our network volume and revenue.

就第三季業績而言，網路交易額為 24 億美元，較去年同期成長 11%，個人貸款和 POS 業務持續強勁，年比分別成長 15% 和 67%。總收入和其他收入年增 21%，達到 2.57 億美元，其中收費收入成長 24%，達到 2.49 億美元。扣除製作成本後的費用收入年增 38%，達到 1 億美元，明顯高於我們的網路容量和收入的成長。

Fee revenue less production costs as a percent of network volume expanded by 83 basis points year over year to a record 4.3% towards the high end of our second half 2024 target range of 3.5% to 4.5%. The growth in our fee revenue less production costs continues to be driven by fees from our lending partners, which comprised 71% of total FRLPC in the quarter versus 60% in the prior year.

費用收入減去製作成本佔網路流量的百分比年增 83 個基點，達到創紀錄的 4.3%，接近 2024 年下半年 3.5% 至 4.5% 目標範圍的上限。我們的費用收入減去生產成本的成長持續受到貸款合作夥伴的費用推動，該費用佔本季 FRLPC 總額的 71%，而上一年為 60%。

It is important to note that our largest and most mature vertical, personal loans, generated an FRLPC of 6.6% of volume. Looking forward, we anticipate improving unit economics from both our auto and point-of-sale businesses as we further scale growth in a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop. While FRLPC grew 38% in the quarter, core operating expenses were flattish year over year and down 5% sequentially.

值得注意的是，我們最大、最成熟的垂直個人貸款產生了 6.6% 的 FRLPC。展望未來，隨著我們在更有利的宏觀經濟背景下進一步擴大成長，我們預期汽車和銷售點業務的單位經濟效益將會改善。儘管 FRLPC 本季成長 38%，但核心營運支出較去年同期持平，季減 5%。

This demonstrates the strong operating leverage embedded in our business, along with the benefits of the cost-saving initiatives we announced in June. Core operating expenses were 52% of FRLPC, down from 72% in the prior-year quarter and the lowest level since going public. Total operating expenses in the quarter were impacted by whole loan losses of $12 million related to loan purchases from older ABS transactions.

這證明了我們業務中強大的營運槓桿，以及我們在 6 月宣布的成本節約計劃的好處。核心營運費用佔 FRLPC 的 52%，低於去年同期的 72%，為上市以來的最低水準。本季的總營運支出受到與舊 ABS 交易購買貸款相關的 1,200 萬美元全部貸款損失的影響。

The combination of higher fees and continued operating leverage drove a 61% incremental adjusted EBITDA margin in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA of $56 million grew by $28 million year over year, a margin of 21.8%, up 846 basis points. Net loss attributable to Pagaya was $67 million in the third quarter compared to a net loss of $22 million in 3Q of 2023.

較高的費用和持續的營運槓桿相結合，推動第三季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長了 61%。調整後 EBITDA 為 5,600 萬美元，年增 2,800 萬美元，利潤率為 21.8%，成長 846 個基點。第三季 Pagaya 的淨虧損為 6,700 萬美元，而 2023 年第三季的淨虧損為 2,200 萬美元。

Credit-related fair value adjustments reported in other expense amounted to negative $70 million, net of non-controlling interest. Adjusted net income, which excludes share-based compensation and other non-cash items such as fair value adjustments was positive $33 million, showcasing the underlying earnings power of the business. While we expect credit losses to be a normal part of our business, as is the case for all lending businesses, we expect that with continued top-line growth, we will reach sustainable GAAP profitability during 2025.

其他費用中報告的與信貸相關的公允價值調整金額為負 7,000 萬美元（扣除非控制權益）。調整後淨利潤（不包括股權激勵和公允價值調整等其他非現金項目）為正 3,300 萬美元，顯示了該業務的潛在獲利能力。雖然我們預計信貸損失將成為我們業務的正常組成部分，就像所有貸款業務的情況一樣，但我們預計，隨著營收的持續增長，我們將在 2025 年實現可持續的 GAAP 盈利能力。

Now moving on to credit performance, we have seen a significant improvement and stability in credit trends over the last 18 months. The combination of both the shift in our portfolio to more resilient borrowers and an improving macro environment has driven notable improvements relative to peak losses in both our personal loan and auto loan portfolios. The latest data for our 2023 personal loan businesses show that CNLs have improved by 20% to 40% relative to peak levels we saw in 2021.

現在轉向信用表現，我們看到過去 18 個月信貸趨勢顯著改善且穩定。我們的投資組合向更具彈性的借款人的轉變以及宏觀環境的改善相結合，推動了我們的個人貸款和汽車貸款投資組合相對於峰值損失的顯著改善。我們 2023 年個人貸款業務的最新數據顯示，CNL 較 2021 年的峰值水準提高了 20% 至 40%。

The latest data for our auto loan businesses show an improvement of 30% to 50% relative to the peak levels we saw in 2022. Credit performance across all our three products is now in line with our expectations. Turning to funding, we've made significant progress this year in terms of capital efficiency by optimizing our ABS program and diversifying our funding sources.

我們汽車貸款業務的最新數據顯示，與 2022 年的峰值水平相比，改善了 30% 至 50%。我們所有三種產品的信用表現目前都符合我們的預期。在資金方面，我們今年透過優化 ABS 計畫和多元化資金來源，在資本效率方面取得了重大進展。

At the same time, demand for consumer assets continues to strengthen, and pricing has meaningfully improved compared to 2023, which was a far more challenging environment for the industry. As of year-to-date September 30, we have issued $4.4 billion in our ABS program across 12 transactions. In the third quarter, we closed our second AAA-rated ABS deal, a $500 million transaction that was significantly oversubscribed. It was priced at the lowest cost of capital we've seen since early 2022, and our effective net cash risk retention came in at about 4%.

同時，消費者資產的需求持續增強，定價與 2023 年相比有了顯著改善，2023 年對該行業來說是一個更具挑戰性的環境。截至今年 9 月 30 日，我們已透過 12 筆交易在 ABS 計劃中發行了 44 億美元。第三季度，我們完成了第二筆 AAA 級 ABS 交易，這筆交易價值 5 億美元，並且獲得了大幅超額認購。它的定價是自 2022 年初以來最低的資本成本，我們的有效淨現金風險保留率為 4% 左右。

Looking ahead, barring any significant changes in the funding environment, we expect our net risk retention on these personal loan ABS deals to remain around 4% to 5% of the notional size. In October, we successfully completed our second pass-through securitization of the year valued at $100 million. These transactions have minimal net risk retention at just 1% of the total notional amount. We anticipate executing one or two more such transactions in the next few months with plans to further scale the program in 2025.

展望未來，除非融資環境發生任何重大變化，我們預計這些個人貸款 ABS 交易的淨風險保留將保持在名義規模的 4% 至 5% 左右。10月，我們成功完成了今年第二筆價值1億美元的傳遞證券化。這些交易的淨風險保留極小，僅為名義總額的 1%。我們預計在未來幾個月內再執行一到兩筆此類交易，並計劃在 2025 年進一步擴大該計劃的規模。

At the same time, we will continue to expand our privately managed funds and forward-flow programs, which require little to no risk retention. In total, we expect non-ABS funding channels to account for 30% to 40% of our total funding in the fourth quarter and anticipate net risk retention levels to be around 2% to 3% of total network volume, which represents our average target range over the cycle.

同時，我們將繼續擴大我們的私人管理基金和遠期資金計劃，這些項目幾乎不需要風險自留。總的來說，我們預計第四季度非ABS 融資管道將占我們總融資的30% 至40%，預計淨風險自留水準將佔網路總量的2% 至3% 左右，這代表了我們的平均目標整個週期的範圍。

Turning to our balance sheet, in September, we announced a series of opportunistic transactions, raising an exchangeable note of $160 million, upsizing our term loan by $70 million and executing an expected sale of approximately $100 million in balance sheet securities. Proceeds will be used to pay down high-cost borrowings. These transactions meaningfully strengthen our balance sheet, improve access to liquidity with the release of high-quality collateral and excess cash, and are expected to reduce annual interest expense by approximately $30 million. We expect to complete these transactions by the end of the year.

談到我們的資產負債表，9 月份，我們宣布了一系列機會主義交易，籌集了1.6 億美元的可交換票據，將定期貸款規模增加了7000 萬美元，並執行了預計出售約1 億美元的資產負債表證券。所得款項將用於償還高成本借款。這些交易有效地增強了我們的資產負債表，透過釋放高品質抵押品和多餘現金改善了流動性的獲取，預計每年將減少約 3000 萬美元的利息支出。我們預計在今年年底前完成這些交易。

This quarter, we recognized a fair value impairment net of non-controlling interest of $70 million. We also reported a change in our gross unrealized loss of $19 million booked in other comprehensive income and shareholders' equity. These charges were primarily related to our 2023 vintage securities. The remaining fair value of our 2023 securities as of September 30 was approximately $275 million.

本季度，我們確認了扣除非控制權益後的公允價值減損 7,000 萬美元。我們也報告了計入其他綜合收益和股東權益的未實現總虧損 1,900 萬美元的變化。這些費用主要與我們 2023 年的舊證券有關。截至 9 月 30 日，我們 2023 年證券的剩餘公允價值約為 2.75 億美元。

As I noted earlier, we expect the majority of any remaining fair value adjustments related to these vintages to be recognized in the fourth quarter of 2024, setting us up to better demonstrate the true earning power of the business in 2025. These 2023 ABS structures were issued in a high cost of capital environment. The relative high sensitivity to even small changes in losses resulted in credit-related impairment charges.

正如我之前指出的，我們預計與這些年份相關的剩餘公允價值調整的大部分將在 2024 年第四季度得到確認，從而使我們能夠在 2025 年更好地展示該業務的真正盈利能力。這些 2023 年 ABS 結構是在高資本成本環境下發行的。即使對損失的微小變化也具有相對較高的敏感性，導致產生與信用相關的減損費用。

As Gal mentioned, during that time, we continue to invest in the growth of our franchise with a focus on building long-term shareholder value. Our step change improvement in capital efficiency, coupled with more normalized capital markets, results in a much higher cushion against future impairments, which coupled with ongoing growth in our business will enable us to reach positive GAAP net income during 2025.

正如蓋爾所提到的，在此期間，我們繼續投資於我們特許經營權的成長，重點是建立長期股東價值。我們在資本效率方面的逐步改進，加上更規範的資本市場，為未來減損提供了更高的緩衝，再加上我們業務的持續成長，將使我們能夠在2025 年實現正的GAAP 淨利潤。

Now let me close with our outlook for the remainder of the year. For full-year 2024, we are narrowing our target ranges across all of our key metrics. As we stay laser-focused on accelerating cash flow generation and profitability, we are directing our production to our most profitable channels. We expect full-year network volume to range between $9.5 billion and $9.7 billion.

現在讓我以我們今年剩餘時間的展望作為結束語。對於 2024 年全年，我們正在縮小所有關鍵指標的目標範圍。當我們繼續專注於加速現金流的產生和獲利能力時，我們正在將我們的生產引導到最有利可圖的管道。我們預計全年網路交易量將在 95 億美元至 97 億美元之間。

We expect total revenue and other income to range between $1.01 billion and $1.025 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to range between $195 million and $205 million. To close, we are excited about our trajectory to achieve accelerated profitable growth and all of the milestones we have achieved towards that goal. We expect to turn to positive GAAP net income during 2025 and will provide formal 2025 guidance at our next quarterly results.

我們預計總收入和其他收入將在 10.1 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1.95 億美元至 2.05 億美元之間。最後，我們對實現加速獲利成長的軌跡以及我們為實現這一目標所實現的所有里程碑感到興奮。我們預計 2025 年將實現正 GAAP 淨利潤，並將在下個季度業績中提供正式的 2025 年指引。

With that, let me turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，讓我將其轉回給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Joseph Vafi, Canaccord.

（操作員說明）Joseph Vafi，Canaccord。

Hey, everyone. Good morning. Nice to see progress along many facets of the business here. Thought maybe we just start on the funding side. Now it sounds like you've got -- you developed a nice set of different funding sources. Could maybe we go a little bit more deeper into the mechanics of how loan volume, network volume is allocated across some of these funding sources? And then maybe a little bit on economics for you on the various funding sources other than the traditional ABS? And then I'll have a quick follow up.

嘿，大家。早安.很高興看到這裡業務的許多方面都取得了進展。我想也許我們只是從資金方面開始。現在聽起來你已經開發了一套很好的不同的資金來源。或許我們可以更深入了解貸款量、網路量如何在這些資金來源之間分配的機制？然後也許可以為您介紹一下除傳統 ABS 之外的各種資金來源的經濟學知識？然後我會快速跟進。

Hi, Joe, thanks for the question. I'll take that one. This is EP. Yes, so we're very excited about where we are currently in terms of our funding. On one side, we have obviously optimized significantly our ABS structures, which we expect to now -- as we're looking at Q2 exit rate and Q4 to range at 4% to 5%, which combined with diversified funding sources from forward flow, pass-through structures, and all of that, we expect the blended mix to be around 2% to 3% across our entire volume.

嗨，喬，謝謝你的提問。我會接受那個。這是EP。是的，所以我們對目前的資金狀況感到非常興奮。一方面，我們顯然已經顯著優化了我們的ABS 結構，我們現在預計會這樣做——因為我們正在考慮第二季度和第四季度的退出率在4% 到5% 之間，再加上來自遠期流動的多元化資金來源，直通結構，以及所有這些，我們預計混合混合物在整個體積中的比例約為 2% 至 3%。

We continue to scale these programs. We see significant opportunity and demand to grow the pass-through programs in particular, and we're in discussions to explore further forward flow agreements. All of that hints at a significant demand, obviously, from investors, which we're very excited about. And any changes in the pricing and all of that amongst the different structures is already reflected in our guidance of 3.5% to 4.5% of FRLPC as a percent of volume.

我們繼續擴大這些計劃的規模。我們看到了發展轉嫁計劃的巨大機會和需求，並且我們正在討論探索進一步的遠期流動協議。所有這些顯然都暗示著投資者的巨大需求，我們對此感到非常興奮。定價的任何變化以及不同結構之間的所有變化都已反映在我們的指導中，即 FRLPC 佔銷售百分比的 3.5% 至 4.5%。

Got it. Is there any way that -- maybe just a little more there, EP, on how you -- how volumes get allocated across these different funding vehicles, like a little bit more detail there.

知道了。有沒有什麼辦法——也許只是多一點，EP，關於你如何——如何在這些不同的融資工具之間分配資金量，例如那裡有更多的細節。

Sure. And we have provided some information in our letter as well, but I would think about ABS being approximately 60% -- 60% to 70% of our volume currently with the alternative sources across pass-throughs, forward flows, and our privately managed funds taking the remaining 30% to 40%.

當然。我們也在信中提供了一些信息，但我認為 ABS 大約占我們目前交易量的 60% 至 70%，其中包括轉嫁、遠期流動和我們的私人管理基金等替代來源取剩下的30%到40%。

Got it. And then one on point of sale. It sounds like there's a lot of point of sale in the pipeline. Obviously, you've got some big logos already signed up there. How should we think about network volume and point of sale over time compared to maybe some of your other loan cohorts like personal loans? Could it be that large one day? Or how do you see it relative to some of the other loan types? Thank you.

知道了。然後是銷售點。聽起來有很多銷售點正在籌備中。顯然，您已經在那裡註冊了一些大徽標。與您的其他貸款群體（例如個人貸款）相比，我們應該如何考慮隨著時間的推移網路數量和銷售點？有一天會變得這麼大嗎？或者您如何看待它與其他一些貸款類型的關係？謝謝。

Hi. This is Sanjiv. I'll take that. So yes, I totally agree with you. The new growth area for us, the new emerging asset class, which is super exciting, is obviously point-of-sale or BNPL as many people describe it. That, as you know, we have a relationship already with Klarna that's going to grow very substantially because of the way we've sort of set it up. And as I said, we'll also go into longer duration, longer ticket size loans.

你好。這是桑吉夫。我會接受的。所以是的，我完全同意你的觀點。對我們來說，新的成長領域、新興的資產類別非常令人興奮，顯然是銷售點或 BNPL，正如許多人所描述的那樣。如您所知，我們已經與 Klarna 建立了合作關係，由於我們建立關係的方式，這種關係將會得到極大的發展。正如我所說，我們還將提供期限更長、金額較大的貸款。

Same with Elavon. We are seeing that phenomenon happen at most of the banks that are getting into payments and -- getting into or have been in payments for quite some time in a very substantial way. We see this across major money center banks. We see that across regional banks. And so -- and the fact that we are increasing the loan size and duration makes it appear in some ways like behave a little bit like personal loans if we really think about it.

與埃拉文相同。我們看到這種現象發生在大多數正在進入支付領域的銀行，並且以非常實質的方式進入或已經進入支付領域相當長一段時間。我們在主要貨幣中心銀行都看到了這一點。我們在各地區銀行都看到了這一點。因此，如果我們認真考慮的話，我們正在增加貸款規模和期限的事實使其在某些方面看起來有點像個人貸款。

And the short answer to your question on whether or not it will be as big as personal loans, we absolutely believe that it will. This is an area that is very, very, very strongly adjacent to the credit card business, lending partners. They are investing a lot of money in that and so are we. And we totally believe that this will be at least as big as PL business and equally as profitable, and we look forward to that.

對於您關於它是否會像個人貸款一樣大的問題的簡短回答是，我們絕對相信它會。這是一個與信用卡業務、貸款合作夥伴非常、非常、非常密切相關的領域。他們在這方面投入了大量資金，我們也是如此。我們完全相信，這將至少與 PL 業務一樣大，並且同樣有利可圖，我們對此充滿期待。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Mark Palmer, Benchmark.

馬克‧帕爾默，《基準》。

Yes, thank you very much for taking my call. I have one question and then a quick follow-up. The company has done a great job of creating operating leverage through expense reductions, and that's really shining through in terms of profitability. How are you thinking about the balance between expense control and additional investments in the platform going forward? And what's the implication with regard to the company's margins?

是的，非常感謝您接聽我的電話。我有一個問題，然後快速跟進。該公司在透過削減開支來創造營運槓桿方面做得非常出色，這在獲利能力方面確實非常出色。您如何看待未來平台的費用控制和額外投資之間的平衡？這對公司的利潤率有何影響？

So hi, Mark, it's Gal here. Thank you for the question. So I will take it first from a business perspective, and then we'll hand it over to EP for a few financial remarks. So from a business perspective, I think this is one of the biggest differentiator pieces of Pagaya. As you think about it from an infrastructure perspective, the reality is that to manage 31 partners or 50 is not that different. So it's not to say that we don't have 5% or 10% higher amount of expenses needs, but it's zero related to the scale and the magnitude of that.

嗨，馬克，我是蓋爾。謝謝你的提問。因此，我將首先從業務角度進行討論，然後我們將其交給 EP 進行一些財務評論。因此，從商業角度來看，我認為這是 Pagaya 最大的差異化因素之一。當您從基礎設施的角度思考時，現實是管理 31 或 50 個合作夥伴並沒有什麼不同。因此，這並不是說我們沒有增加 5% 或 10% 的開支需求，而是與規模和幅度相關的是零。

And think about it that we build an engine that knows to onboard or add something between two to four a year. So from that perspective, our cost is mainly going to stay flat, while the additional revenues or net revenues, whatever you want to call it, should continue to grow in the high single -- sorry, high double-digit numbers.

想想看，我們建造了一個引擎，知道每年要裝載或添加兩到四個東西。因此，從這個角度來看，我們的成本將主要保持不變，而額外收入或淨收入，無論你怎麼稱呼它，都應該繼續以高個位數增長——對不起，高兩位數數字。

The only other piece I wanted to add to that is that the reduction in force that we did and where we are staying today with the platform, especially as Sanjiv came into effectively in his role, is not a place where we are running lean right now. That's how we view the business. That's what we view the expense basis to be. And that's where we believe we can execute in front of many more strategic initiatives. In addition, for even more products and more asset classes down the road, that could be in the same concept because it's really high leverage to our ability to build a scalable business, and that's the story of Pagaya.

我想補充的唯一一點是，我們所做的兵力減少以及我們今天在平台上所停留的地方，特別是當 Sanjiv 有效地擔任他的角色時，並不是我們現在正在精簡的地方。這就是我們看待業務的方式。這就是我們所認為的費用基礎。這就是我們相信我們可以在更多策略舉措面前執行的地方。此外，對於未來更多的產品和更多的資產類別，這可能屬於同一概念，因為它對我們建立可擴展業務的能力具有很高的槓桿作用，這就是 Pagaya 的故事。

Yes, and I want to double down on one thing that Gal said. It's the business has an inherent operating leverage and it's a key differentiator. It's less about managing expenses down. It's more about our ability to continue to deliver on our strategy and take advantage of the growth opportunities without necessarily any incremental investments.

是的，我想強調加爾所說的一件事。企業擁有固有的營運槓桿，這是關鍵的差異化因素。這與減少管理開支無關。更重要的是我們繼續實施我們的策略並利用成長機會的能力，而無需任何增量投資。

If you look at costs year over year, they're about flat, yet fee revenue less production costs has driven -- has grown by more than 38%. The point of this is that we can continue to execute on our strategy and take advantage of all the growth opportunities ahead of us without any incremental or material incremental investment on our cost infrastructure.

如果你逐年查看成本，你會發現它們基本上持平，但扣除生產成本後的費用收入卻增加了 38% 以上。重點是，我們可以繼續執行我們的策略，並利用我們面前的所有成長機會，而無需對我們的成本基礎設施進行任何增量或實質增量投資。

Thank you, and one quick follow-up question. We are now a week since the US presidential election. Just wanted to get your initial thoughts on what the expectations are for the operating environment for Pagaya under the new administration from a regulatory perspective, in particular.

謝謝您，還有一個快速的後續問題。美國總統大選已經過了一週。只是想了解一下您對新政府領導下的 Pagaya 營運環境的期望的初步想法，尤其是從監管角度來看。

So hi, Mark, sure. So I think generally speaking, right, and without speaking about politics, we are really in a situation that from a market perspective, there is a very, I would say, strong belief that regulatory will be more constructive and that in the same time, the belief that growth should happen in the US is there.

嗨，馬克，當然。所以我認為一般來說，在不談論政治的情況下，我們確實處於這樣一種情況，從市場的角度來看，我想說的是，人們非常堅信監管將更具建設性，同時，人們相信成長應該發生在美國。

For our perspective, as you think about that -- these two different type of narratives that fit well for Pagaya, we are supportive of a strong consumer that will have the ability to take the debt and to pay it properly. And in the same time, as you can imagine, and as a disruptive in this space, for us to bring more technology and more capabilities into the banks and into the other pieces is definitely a strong tailwind for us. So all in all, the ability to actually drive more value by exploring and opening technology into the different ecosystems and banks is definitely something that is a tailwind for us.

就我們的觀點而言，正如您所想到的那樣，這兩種不同類型的敘述非常適合 Pagaya，我們支持強大的消費者，他們有能力承擔債務並正確償還債務。同時，正如你可以想像的那樣，作為這個領域的顛覆者，我們將更多的技術和更多的能力帶入銀行和其他領域，這對我們來說絕對是一個強大的推動力。總而言之，透過探索並向不同的生態系統和銀行開放技術來實際驅動更多價值的能力絕對是我們的順風車。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

約翰‧赫克特，傑弗里斯。

Good morning, guys, and thanks very much for taking my calls. And congratulations on continuing to execute against the growth plan. Maybe just because I know that the personal loan product, it's more mature, it's more scaled. Maybe can you talk about like the FRLPC with that versus like the other new products? And also, maybe talk about the risk retention across the different product lines.

早上好，夥計們，非常感謝您接聽我的電話。並祝賀您繼續執行增長計劃。也許只是因為我知道個人貸款產品，它更成熟，更有規模。也許您可以談談 FRLPC 與其他新產品的差異嗎？另外，或許可以談談不同產品線的風險保留。

Hi, John. Thanks for the question. So today, as you saw, right, we reported in the third quarter a record FRLPC across the entire company of 4.3%, which is closer to the upper end of the range. When you try to dissect that across our products, personal loans, which is a more mature product, it's close to 6.6%. And then as it relates to auto and POS, these are areas where we continue to see significant more opportunity to grow the unit economics as we're moving forward.

嗨，約翰。謝謝你的提問。因此，今天，正如您所看到的，我們報告整個公司第三季度的 FRLPC 創歷史新高，達到 4.3%，這更接近該範圍的上限。當你嘗試剖析我們的產品（個人貸款，這是一種更成熟的產品）時，它接近 6.6%。然後，就汽車和 POS 而言，隨著我們的前進，我們在這些領域繼續看到更多成長單位經濟效益的機會。

These are still investment areas for us, but we see that opportunity to basically apply the same roadmap that we had on personal loan. It's just a few quarters behind. From a risk retention perspective, what I would say is there is a little difference between the different products. What I would say is if you take a personal loan as an example, at 6.6% FRLPC and a risk retention close to 2% to 3%, we're already looking at a product that's significantly profitable. And we expect to replicate that success in the other products as well as we continue to mature in those fronts.

這些對我們來說仍然是投資領域，但我們看到了基本上應用與個人貸款相同的路線圖的機會。僅僅落後了幾個季度。從風險保留的角度來看，我想說的是不同產品之間有些差異。我想說的是，如果以個人貸款為例，FRLPC 為 6.6%，風險自留接近 2% 至 3%，我們已經在尋找利潤豐厚的產品。我們希望在其他產品中複製這種成功，並在這些方面繼續成熟。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe can you talk about the conversion rate? It's still very conservative. It's been on a downward trend despite the fact that you've had very solid volume growth. Where are we in the cycle that you might -- we might see a reversal of that trend in the conversion rate? And what might that -- what kind of opportunities does that present to you guys?

好的。這很有幫助。然後你能談談轉換率嗎？還是非常保守的。儘管銷量成長非常強勁，但它一直呈下降趨勢。我們處於週期的哪個階段—我們可能會看到轉換率趨勢的逆轉？這會為你們帶來什麼樣的機會？

Yes. Listen, as you may have seen a little bit, we continue to see significant growth opportunity, right? We have built now a franchise that looks at more than $200 billion of application flow coming in through our 31 partners per quarter. And our conversion rate, to your point, continues to be in that sort of a little bit less than 1%, materially lower than what it used to be.

是的。聽著，正如您可能已經看到的那樣，我們繼續看到重大的成長機會，對吧？我們現在已經建立了一個特許經營權，每季透過我們的 31 個合作夥伴獲得超過 2000 億美元的應用程式流量。就您而言，我們的轉換率仍然略低於 1%，大大低於以前的水平。

We obviously have the opportunity to change that and grow, but we want to make sure we do that in the form of profitable growth and not at the expense of profitability and returns. As we continue to move on and we get more flow and some of the relations with our newer partners mature, we will naturally start to increase -- you'll naturally see an increase in that conversion ratio coming up surely -- particularly in 2025.

顯然，我們有機會改變這種狀況並實現成長，但我們希望確保以獲利成長的形式實現這一目標，而不是以犧牲獲利能力和回報為代價。隨著我們繼續前進，我們獲得更多流量，並且與新合作夥伴的一些關係成熟，我們自然會開始增加——你自然會看到轉換率肯定會增加——特別是在 2025 年。

Okay, thank you, guys.

好的，謝謝你們。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑·薩赫拉尼 (Sanjay Sakhrani)，KBW。

Hi. This is actually Steven Kwok filling in for Sanjay. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess I just want to drill down on credit and the credit impairment this quarter. It seems like credit metrics seem to be trending fine. Just curious as to what's led to the credit impairment this quarter. And it seems like it was related to the 2023 vintage. If we could just drill down on -- was it on the personal loan side or auto side? If you could just provide some more details. Thanks.

你好。這實際上是史蒂文·郭（Steven Kwok）代替桑傑（Sanjay）。感謝您回答我的問題。我想我只是想深入了解本季的信貸和信貸減損情況。信用指標似乎趨勢良好。只是好奇是什麼導致了本季的信用減損。這似乎與 2023 年年份有關。如果我們可以深入研究——是個人貸款方面還是汽車方面？如果您能提供更多詳細資訊。謝謝。

Sure. I'll take that. So look, the impairments were mainly related to the 2023 vintages. And I want to underscore that either way, the company as a business today is very well positioned to drive to GAAP net income profitability in 2025 and reflecting impairments, if any, in the future. In addition, and I want to make clear, and we provided a lot of information on that is that our credit performance continues to improve and has been improving for multiple quarters.

當然。我會接受的。所以看起來，減損主要與 2023 年年份有關。我想強調的是，無論哪種方式，該公司作為一家企業，目前都處於非常有利的位置，可以在 2025 年實現 GAAP 淨利潤，並反映未來的減值（如果有）。此外，我想澄清的是，我們提供了很多相關信息，即我們的信用表現持續改善，並且已經連續多個季度改善。

When you look at the 2023 vintage CNLs across all our products, they are significantly better than the 21s or 22s in the range of 20% to 40%, even 50%. So this was not related specifically to credit. What you have here is these positions, risk retention positions, that we took related to the '23 is -- was done in a very challenging funding environment. Effectively, you're having investors looking at very high expected returns to underwrite these types of assets.

當您查看我們所有產品中的 2023 年復古 CNL 時，您會發現它們明顯優於 21 或 22，範圍為 20% 至 40%，甚至 50%。所以這與信用無關。這裡的這些頭寸，即風險自留頭寸，我們採取的與 23 世紀相關的頭寸——是在非常具有挑戰性的融資環境中完成的。實際上，投資者會尋求非常高的預期回報來承銷此類資產。

And from our perspective, Pagaya was -- continue to invest during the environment in the growth of our franchise, and we're focusing on building up liquidity and planting for future growth. So even though we didn't anticipate those losses, what you have here is ABS structures that left us effectively susceptible to impact -- financial impact even from small changes in the credit performance.

從我們的角度來看，Pagaya 在這種環境下繼續投資於我們特許經營權的成長，我們專注於建立流動性並為未來的成長做好準備。因此，儘管我們沒有預料到這些損失，但 ABS 結構實際上使我們很容易受到影響——即使信用表現的微小變化也會造成財務影響。

So that's what drove these impairments. And obviously, as I said, primarily driven by 2023s, the key question here is where we are today. A couple of things there. First of all, obviously, the capital markets and funding environment is significantly better and positive. But most importantly, we have significantly optimized our funding structures and diversified our funding, all of that leading to a significant cushion against any future impairments.

這就是造成這些損害的原因。顯然，正如我所說，主要受 2023 年推動，這裡的關鍵問題是我們今天所處的位置。有幾件事。首先，很明顯，資本市場和融資環境明顯向好。但最重要的是，我們顯著優化了融資結構並實現了融資多元化，所有這些都為應對未來的任何損害提供了巨大的緩衝。

So as I noted on the call, as it relates to the 2023 vintages, we expect the majority of any remaining impairments for that vintage to be taken in the fourth quarter. And we obviously want to take that sort of noise away to demonstrate the earnings power of the business going forward and leading to GAAP net income profitability in 2025.

因此，正如我在電話會議上指出的那樣，由於它與 2023 年年份相關，我們預計該年份的大部分剩餘減損將在第四季度進行。我們顯然希望消除這種噪音，以展示企業未來的獲利能力，並在 2025 年實現 GAAP 淨利潤。

Got it. And as of today, do you have any preliminary expectations of how large the credit impairment in the fourth quarter could be?

知道了。那麼截至今天，您對第四季度信用減損可能有多大有初步預期嗎？

Yes. No, we can do that, and I can give you that guidance. We still need to mark the position. And in order to do that, we need to get more data as this risk retention position season, particularly the second half of 2023. And that's important for us to get there to really be predictive in terms of the magnitude of the impact. What I would highlight is, and we did that provide that clarity is today, the 2023 portfolio stands on our balance sheet at approximately $275 million total. And as I pointed out earlier, we expect majority of any remaining impairments to be taken in the fourth quarter.

是的。不，我們可以做到這一點，我可以為您提供指導。我們還需要標記位置。為了做到這一點，我們需要在這個風險保留部位季節，特別是 2023 年下半年獲得更多數據。對我們來說，真正預測影響的嚴重程度非常重要。我要強調的是，我們的資產負債表上的 2023 年投資組合總額約為 2.75 億美元，而我們今天也做到了這一點。正如我之前指出的，我們預計大部分剩餘減損將在第四季消除。

Got it. That was very helpful. Thanks for taking my questions.

知道了。這非常有幫助。感謝您回答我的問題。

David Scharf, Citizens JMP.

David Scharf，公民 JMP。

Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to kind of revisit the FLRPC outlook, particularly as the asset class mix evolves. I mean, it sounded like you're expecting auto to accelerate, very bullish commentary on point of sale. And as the business evolves to the point where personal loans are a lower part of the mix, I'm wondering, should we be thinking about a lower kind of weighted average FLRPC margin? Or conversely, based on the 6.6% you recorded in personal loans this quarter, as the other products scale, should we be thinking about the long-term margin structure above the current 3% to 4% outlook?

你好。早安，感謝您提出我的問題。我想重新審視 FLRPC 的前景，特別是隨著資產類別組合的發展。我的意思是，聽起來您預計汽車會加速發展，對銷售點的評論非常樂觀。隨著業務發展到個人貸款在組合中所佔比例較低的程度，我想知道，我們是否應該考慮降低加權平均 FLRPC 利潤率？或者相反，根據本季個人貸款記錄的 6.6%，隨著其他產品規模的擴大，我們是否應該考慮高於當前 3% 至 4% 前景的長期利潤率結構？

Hi, David, it's Gal here. So I want to take it from a business perspective for a second. What we are building here is one of the most unique infrastructure and platform of credit generation in the United States. And that comes across, as you mentioned, in the same concept, but with three different major markets. And all of them are very big and growing, personal loan, auto loans, and point of sale.

嗨，大衛，我是蓋爾。所以我想從商業角度來考慮一下。我們在這裡建造的是美國最獨特的信貸生成基礎設施和平台之一。正如您所提到的，這是同一概念，但涉及三個不同的主要市場。所有這些都非常龐大且不斷增長，個人貸款、汽車貸款和銷售點。

The reality is that when you get to the right scale and to the right size, because all of these assets are rather complicated assets to produce that you will need to have very intense infrastructure for that, the profit or the contribution margin or the FRLPC or any way you want to put it is actually more or less, over the lifetime, the same. So you should expect to see autos reaching closer to these numbers. You should expect point of sale to reach to that number.

現實情況是，當你達到正確的規模和規模時，因為所有這些資產都是相當複雜的資產，因此你將需要擁有非常強大的基礎設施，利潤或貢獻邊際或 FRLPC 或不管你怎麼說，在一生中，實際上或多或少都是一樣的。因此，您應該期望看到汽車接近這些數字。您應該預期銷售點會達到這個數字。

Now do remember, there are a lot of modifications or normalizations for different duration or different credit spectrums. So by that, I mean, that you should not think about a point of sale of a six-month loan the same way you think about a personal loan of 36.

現在請記住，對於不同的期限或不同的信用範圍，有許多修改或標準化。因此，我的意思是，您不應該像考慮 36 個月的個人貸款一樣考慮 6 個月貸款的銷售點。

But if you take all of that into consideration, you will see that while creating the same high double-digit returns, together with efficient funding, which is way below that, the excess spread and the ability to provide profits to Pagaya will remain at the 3.5% to 4.5% over all asset classes and will drive higher and bigger as we mature more the markets. As we did with personal loan, you should expect the same to happen in auto and thereafter with point of sale. I hope that gave you the clarity.

但如果你考慮到所有這些，你會發現，雖然創造了同樣高的兩位數回報，加上遠低於此的高效融資，但超額利差和為 Pagaya 提供利潤的能力仍將保持在佔所有資產類別的3.5% 至4.5%，隨著我們的市場更加成熟，這一比例將會更高、更大。正如我們在個人貸款方面所做的那樣，您應該預期汽車領域以及此後的銷售點也會發生同樣的情況。我希望這能讓你清楚。

And if I can just add to what Gal -- this is Sanjiv. I just wanted to add to what Gal just said, which I think was spot on. Obviously, the summary of what Gal said was the asset classes will kind of converge to roughly the same kind of performance -- financial performance. But I will say this in defense of personal loans that by no means have we even reached the potential of where personal loans could go. Gal talked about it. I talked about it in terms of the prescreen product.

如果我可以補充一下 Gal——這是 Sanjiv。我只是想補充加爾剛才所說的，我認為這是正確的。顯然，加爾所說的總結是，資產類別將趨於大致相同的績效──財務績效。但我要為個人貸款辯護的是，我們甚至還沒有達到個人貸款的潛力。加爾談到了這件事。我是從預篩選產品的角度來談的。

So as we are getting into all of our lending -- existing lending partners, I'll give you an example. The very large bank, we are now starting to talk about offering Pagaya personal loans as an unsecured home improvement loan to their entire portfolio. That's very, very powerful in terms of growth in an existing partner. So personal loans has a very long trajectory to go.

因此，當我們涉及所有貸款——現有的貸款合作夥伴時，我會給你一個例子。作為一家非常大的銀行，我們現在開始討論向其整個投資組合提供 Pagaya 個人貸款作為無擔保家居裝修貸款。就現有合作夥伴的成長而言，這非常非常強大。因此，個人貸款還有很長的路要走。

As you all know, the TAM of the auto market is also extremely large. And of course, POS is the newly emerging asset class. But the point is that all three asset classes will grow because of the way we are growing horizontally now across personal loans, which is a much more mature product with strong FRLPCs. And of course, the economics will more or less converge because these products are more or less [there] to Gal's point. So just want to [reiterate].

眾所周知，汽車市場的TAM也是極為龐大的。當然，POS 是新興的資產類別。但關鍵是，所有三種資產類別都將成長，因為我們現在在個人貸款方面橫向成長，這是一種更成熟的產品，具有強大的 FRLPC。當然，經濟學或多或少會趨同，因為這些產品或多或少符合加爾的觀點。所以只想[重申]。

Got it. No, no, that's very helpful. And maybe just as a follow up, shifting to the demand side, there's been a lot of private credit flowing into the personal loan sector lately, not just Pagaya's flow partner, but a lot of other primary lenders. Are you seeing any change in behavior approval rates by some of your lending clients? Obviously, you had a very robust application volume of second looks coming your way. But are you noticing any pickup in approval rates among the lending partners you serve as they become better capitalized?

知道了。不不不，這很有幫助。也許作為後續行動，轉向需求方，最近有大量私人信貸流入個人貸款領域，不僅是 Pagaya 的流動合作夥伴，還有許多其他主要貸款機構。您是否發現某些貸款客戶的行為認可率有任何變化？顯然，您的第二次申請申請量非常大。但您是否注意到，隨著您所服務的貸款合作夥伴的資本狀況變得更好，他們的支持率上升？

Yes, David, it's Gal here. So first, I want to take the first question. So you're right. We have heard with many of our peers, et cetera, that private credit shops and generally alternative lending is starting to be much more constructive and therefore, what we call leaning in. That leaning in will, at the end, result in a growth for the sector and for the different lending pieces.

是的，大衛，我是蓋爾。首先，我想回答第一個問題。所以你是對的。我們從許多同行那裡聽說，私人信貸商店和一般的替代貸款開始變得更具建設性，因此，我們稱之為「傾斜」。最終，這種傾向將導致該行業和不同貸款業務的成長。

So this is a phenomena that we see. We see -- well, we are at the efficacy of it because we have over 120 different partners. And you will be surprised, these days, every public shop wants to have a private shop. So we are a very good enabler and connectivity tissue even, if you will, between that private credit phenomena and flowing into the consumer credit assets.

所以這是我們看到的一個現象。我們看到——嗯，我們之所以能發揮它的功效，是因為我們有 120 多個不同的合作夥伴。你會驚訝地發現，現在每個公共商店都想擁有私人商店。因此，如果你願意的話，我們是一個非常好的推動者和連結組織，甚至在私人信貸現象和流入消費信貸資產之間也是如此。

The one thing I do want to call out is that we are not yet in an environment where lenders are starting to increase massively their approval rates. And the reality is that we are still in a high interest rate environment, and things are starting to become much more constructive as we go forward.

我確實想指出的一件事是，我們還沒有處於貸款機構開始大幅提高批准率的環境中。現實情況是，我們仍然處於高利率環境中，隨著我們的前進，事情開始變得更具建設性。

So we expect people to open their boxes. They did start to do so. But on the margins, obviously, we're happy to see that because it means much better environment for the consumer, many more opportunities for them to get financed and refinanced. That in return is another phenomena that could reduce losses even further in the future. So all in all, to your question, we don't see a massive phenomena as such. But definitely, the growth mode have started -- have started with us, have started with other, but it is prudent growth and not irresponsible growth.

所以我們希望人們打開他們的盒子。他們確實開始這麼做了。但顯然，我們很高興看到這一點，因為這意味著為消費者提供更好的環境，為他們提供更多獲得融資和再融資的機會。作為回報，這是另一個可能在未來進一步減少損失的現象。總而言之，對於你的問題，我們沒有看到這樣的大規模現象。但可以肯定的是，成長模式已經開始——從我們開始，從其他國家開始，但這是審慎的成長，而不是不負責任的成長。

Got it. Understood. Thanks very much.

知道了。明白了。非常感謝。

Hal Goetsch, B. Riley Securities.

Hal Goetsch，B. 萊利證券。

Hey. Good morning, guys. I want to go back to the fair value marks again. And I want to make sure I heard you guys correctly. 2023 was an extremely difficult year. We still had fears of interest rates going higher, inflation staying high, then we had a banking crisis in the middle of the year that caused a lot of poor environment for consumer credit on bank's balance sheets.

嘿。早安，夥計們。我想再次回到公允價值標記。我想確保我沒聽錯你們的話。 2023年是極為困難的一年。我們仍然擔心利率走高，通貨膨脹居高不下，然後我們在年中發生了銀行危機，導致銀行資產負債表上的消費信貸環境很差。

Am I hearing you right that you did deals to invest in the business to support your customers that had structures that were much more sensitive to small changes in credit performance, and the structures you're doing today aren't as sensitive, and that's what's helpful to your outlook for 2025? That's what I want to get at.

我沒聽錯吧，您進行了投資業務的交易來支持您的客戶，這些客戶的結構對信用表現的微小變化更加敏感，而您今天所做的結構並不那麼敏感，這就是問題所在對您對2025 年的展望有幫助嗎？這就是我想要表達的。

Hal, [can you clarify that]?

哈爾，[你能澄清一下嗎]？

[That's a 20-year event] and the market's hung up on that, and I wanted to get your thoughts on that.

[這是一個 20 年的事件]，市場對此很關注，我想聽聽你對此的看法。

Yes, so let's name it out. So let's start from the past. The reality -- what is Pagaya? Pagaya business is a network. In a network, you need to make sure the network is flowing all day, every day, no matter what. That's our responsibility for both our partners and investors to deliver to them the best flow and the best return.

是的，所以讓我們說出它的名字。那麼就讓我們從過去開始吧。現實——Pagaya 是什麼？Pagaya業務是一個網路。在網路中，無論發生什麼，您都需要確保網路全天、每天都暢通無阻。這是我們對合作夥伴和投資者的責任，為他們提供最好的流量和最好的回報。

In 2023, which was a unique time where it was a really big gap, we filled the gap. That is an investment. We did that because we believe that the investment we'll do is going to end itself in a much massive outcome, which is the enterprise value that you see here today, 31 different partners, US Bank, many others, and in the same time, happy investors from 2023. Every investor you're going to speak with in that invested in a Pagaya security in 2023 will tell you great platform, great returns.

2023 年，這是一個獨特的時期，存在著一個非常大的空白，我們填補了這個空白。那是一種投資。我們這樣做是因為我們相信我們所做的投資最終會帶來巨大的成果，這就是您今天在這裡看到的企業價值，31 個不同的合作夥伴、美國銀行和許多其他合作夥伴，同時，從2023 年起祝投資者快樂。每位在 2023 年投資 Pagaya 證券的投資者都會告訴您，這是一個很棒的平台，回報豐厚。

And these are the investors that are looking now to open their deployment, as you heard David speaking about. So we are the first choice. So we did all of that to get ready for that particular moment in time to make sure we are capturing that momentum very well. Two things left to speak about.

正如您聽到大衛談到的那樣，這些投資者現在正在尋求開放他們的部署。所以我們是第一選擇。因此，我們做了所有這些工作，為那個特定時刻做好準備，以確保我們很好地抓住了這一勢頭。還有兩件事要說。

One, what is giving us the confidence that in the next cycle like that, we're not going to be in the same situation? The reality is that the structural changes that we did, the diversification of the funding to forward flow and many others, the new type of funding vehicles and some internal things about how we manage risk and how we are managing our production, have got us to a situation where we are, even in the future different cycle, are going to have much less potential impairment losses even if nothing is changing.

第一，是什麼讓我們有信心在下一個這樣的周期中，我們不會遇到同樣的情況？現實情況是，我們所做的結構性變革、遠期資金流的多元化以及其他許多方面、新型融資工具以及有關我們如何管理風險和如何管理生產的一些內部問題，使我們能夠即使在未來不同的週期中，即使沒有任何變化，我們的潛在減損損失也會少得多。

We are talking just for you to reference 40% less risk retention dollars that we are putting now on our balance sheet versus what it used to be a year ago just because of all these different structural changes that I shared with you. Now the last point that is left to figure out is how the production of today is behaving and what should we expect from that on the impairment level of the future. So put it in a different word.

我們所說的只是為了讓您參考一下，由於我與您分享的所有這些不同的結構性變化，我們現在在資產負債表上的風險自留金額比一年前減少了 40%。現在剩下的最後一點要弄清楚的是，今天的生產表現如何，以及我們對未來的減損水準應該有何預期。所以用不同的字來表達它。

The 40% versus what last year that you are putting on your balance sheet, what's the probability of that to get impaired? And the answer to that and what EP said before is that the likelihood of them to get impaired is much, much, much lower. Why? Because these different structural things we did in the ABS made that the first dollar loss is much more far away from potential losses happening than what it used to be in 2023.

與去年您列入資產負債表的 40% 相比，其受損的可能性有多大？對此問題的答案以及 EP 之前所說的是，他們受到損害的可能性要低得多。為什麼？因為我們在 ABS 中所做的這些不同的結構性事情使得第一次美元損失與潛在損失發生的距離比 2023 年的情況要遠得多。

And therefore, when we speak about 2025 and when we think about what is our expectation, our expectation is from the operational leverage that we have that generates strong cash flows and strong profits. Even taking into consideration some normal risk retention write-downs, we are expecting the company to be GAAP net income. And for a platform like us, which is rather young and one of the leading fintech, it's a very impressive target to put out there as we think about 2025, and we're saying that with full confidence.

因此，當我們談論 2025 年並思考我們的期望時，我們的期望來自於我們擁有的能夠產生強勁現金流和強勁利潤的營運槓桿。即使考慮到一些正常的風險自留減記，我們仍預期該公司將實現 GAAP 淨利。對於我們這樣一個相當年輕且領先的金融科技公司之一的平台來說，在我們考慮 2025 年時，這是一個非常令人印象深刻的目標，而且我們充滿信心地說出這一點。

Thank you, Gal.

謝謝你，加爾。

Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Gal Krubiner for closing comments.

謝謝。由於沒有其他問題，我現在想將會議交給 Gal Krubiner 進行總結評論。

Thank you very much, everyone. And to close, I just want to say that I'm very proud of what we have achieved this year. We successfully executed against every one of our 2024 goals. We positioned the business to deliver sustainable, profitable growth in 2025 and beyond. The growth opportunities ahead of us are massive. And the demand for our product, as you heard in this call, is stronger than ever. Thank you, as always, for your partnership and looking forward to catching up with you very soon.

非常感謝大家。最後，我只想說，我對我們今年的成就感到非常自豪。我們成功實現了 2024 年的每項目標。我們的業務定位是在 2025 年及以後實現可持續的獲利成長。我們面前的成長機會是巨大的。正如您在這次電話會議中聽到的那樣，對我們產品的需求比以往任何時候都更加強勁。一如既往地感謝您的合作，並期待很快與您聯繫。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。