前進保險 (PGR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's First Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be a moderator for today's event.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們參加 Progressive 的第一季度投資者活動。我是投資者關係總監 Doug Constantine，我將擔任今天活動的主持人。

The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and a letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company website. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60-minute schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.

除了已發佈在公司網站上的 10-K 表格年度報告、10-Q 表格季度報告和致股東的信中提供的內容外，公司不會就其業績發表詳細評論。儘管我們的季度投資者關係活動通常包括對我們業務特定部分的介紹，但我們將使用今天活動的 60 分鐘時間表來聽取我們的 CEO 的介紹性評論以及與我們領導團隊成員的問答環節.

The introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60-minute schedule for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.

我們的 CEO 的介紹性評論之前已錄製。在完成之前記錄的發言後，我們將利用本次活動的 60 分鐘時間表的剩餘時間與我們的領導團隊成員進行現場問答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that can cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as supplemented by our 10-Q report for the first quarter 2023, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.

與往常一樣，本次活動中的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明基於管理層當前的預期，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際事件和結果與今天的事件中討論的內容大不相同。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告，並輔以我們 2023 年第一季度的 10-Q 報告，您將在其中找到對風險因素的討論影響我們的業務、與前瞻性陳述相關的安全港聲明以及我們面臨的挑戰的其他討論。這些文件可以通過我們網站 investors.progressive.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?

今天開始，我很高興介紹我們的首席執行官 Tricia Griffith，她將以一些介紹性的評論拉開我們的序幕。特里西婭？

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. One of the enduring lessons since the onset of the pandemic is the uncertainty of the future. Since March 2020, the world and our business have been pummeled by unforeseen events. In that vein is perhaps poetic that 3 years post pandemic, we continue to have to manage through the unexpected in our business. In the end, I'm confident that our resilience will see us through.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。自大流行病爆發以來的持久教訓之一是未來的不確定性。自 2020 年 3 月以來，世界和我們的業務一直受到不可預見事件的打擊。在這種情況下，大流行 3 年後，我們仍然必須應對業務中的意外情況，這或許是富有詩意的。最後，我相信我們的韌性將幫助我們渡過難關。

Through the first quarter, we're not on track to achieve our calendar year goal of a 96 combined ratio. Given our extensive history of meeting our stated goals, this has prompted many questions about how we got here and where we're going. As such, in lieu of a more traditional opening statement, I'll instead provide answers to some questions that have been asked by the investment analysts. My hope is that you will gain a clear understanding of how we are addressing the challenges as well as the urgency with which we are acting.

整個第一季度，我們都沒有按計劃實現 96 綜合比率的日曆年目標。鑑於我們實現既定目標的悠久歷史，這引發了許多關於我們如何到達這里以及我們要去哪裡的問題。因此，代替更傳統的開場白，我將回答投資分析師提出的一些問題。我希望您能清楚地了解我們如何應對挑戰以及我們採取行動的緊迫性。

The first question is, how are you reacting to being above your target of a 96 calendar year combined ratio. The answer to that is we will react to the same way we always have with speed and decisiveness. The 3 largest levers we have to manage our margin are to decrease our expense ratio, tighten our verification and underwriting scrutiny of new business and increased rates. I'll address these in that order.

第一個問題是，您對超過 96 日曆年綜合比率的目標有何反應。答案是我們將一如既往地迅速果斷地做出反應。我們管理利潤率的三個最大槓桿是降低我們的費用比率，加強我們對新業務的驗證和承保審查以及提高利率。我將按順序解決這些問題。

Our largest controllable variable expense is advertising spend, and we are taking action to reduce these costs, which we expect could both slow growth and help to reduce our expense ratio. Once we are confident that we can deliver our target calendar year profitability, we will consider resuming our spend. While we won't provide details on which segments of media we are reducing or how this may affect growth going forward, I will tell you that we've invested in bringing the same industry-leading science from the pricing side of our business to the acquisition side, and we'll continue to spend in the places that we believe have the greatest benefit to the business. Using non-rate actions such as tighter verification and underwriting standards and limiting bill plan options, will reduce our growth in the segments we believe we can't currently write at our target margins.

我們最大的可控可變支出是廣告支出，我們正在採取行動降低這些成本，我們預計這既可以減緩增長，又有助於降低我們的費用率。一旦我們確信我們可以實現我們的目標日曆年盈利能力，我們將考慮恢復我們的支出。雖然我們不會提供有關我們正在減少哪些媒體部分或這可能如何影響未來增長的詳細信息，但我會告訴你，我們已經投資將行業領先的科學從我們業務的定價方面引入到收購方面，我們將繼續在我們認為對業務最有利的地方進行投資。使用非利率行動，例如更嚴格的驗證和承保標準以及限制賬單計劃選項，將減少我們認為目前無法以目標利潤率寫入的細分市場的增長。

Finally, our largest and slowest moving lever is rates. In quarter 1, we took 4 points of rate in Personal Auto on an aggregate country-wide basis, and we are still earning in some of the prior year rate increases. We plan to take aggressive rate increases where needed across all lines through the balance of 2023 to ensure we're pricing to deliver our target profit margin.

最後，我們最大和最慢的槓桿是利率。在第一季度，我們在全國范圍內將個人汽車的利率提高了 4 個百分點，並且我們仍在從去年的一些利率增長中獲利。我們計劃在 2023 年剩餘時間裡根據需要在所有線路上大幅提高利率，以確保我們的定價能夠實現我們的目標利潤率。

The next question, given the actions we will take to meet our profit target is, what will this do to growth? First and foremost, keep in mind that growth in the first quarter of 2023 was an all-time high for the company, and we are very proud of that. Secondly, we are still in a very hard market with lots of consumers quoting their insurance. We also continue to see ambient shopping. While policy growth may be slowed by our actions, we still anticipate there will continue to be robust demand for our products. Of course, the actions of our competitors also play a role in what growth will be. So I won't speculate on specific growth predictions. However, you can rest assured that we are focused on growing policies that we believe will meet or exceed our target margins.

下一個問題是，考慮到我們為實現利潤目標將採取的行動，這對增長有何影響？首先，請記住，2023 年第一季度的增長對公司來說是歷史新高，我們為此感到非常自豪。其次，我們仍然處於一個非常艱難的市場，許多消費者都在引用他們的保險。我們還繼續看到環境購物。雖然我們的行動可能會減緩政策增長，但我們仍然預計對我們產品的需求將繼續強勁。當然，我們競爭對手的行為也會對增長產生影響。所以我不會推測具體的增長預測。但是，您可以放心，我們專注於不斷增長的保單，我們認為這些保單將達到或超過我們的目標利潤率。

Lastly, we've received many questions like this one. Do you now believe your reserving is adequate? Or said another way, you said that you were confident that the biggest rate increases were behind you, what changed? The answer is fairly basic. We started seeing data come in over the last few months that was not in line with what we were anticipating, which caused us to increase reserves and react with rate increases.

最後，我們收到了很多這樣的問題。您現在認為您的儲備充足嗎？或者換句話說，你說你有信心最大的加息已經過去了，什麼改變了？答案是相當基本的。我們開始看到過去幾個月的數據與我們的預期不符，這導致我們增加準備金並以利率上漲做出反應。

In Personal Lines, our reserve strengthening happened largely in the short-tailed fixing vehicle coverages. In these coverages, we can recognize and react to new trends relatively quickly, and we feel good about our reserve levels today. That being said, reserves are estimates and change over time based on evolving trends.

在個人險種方面，我們的儲備加強主要發生在短尾固定車輛覆蓋範圍內。在這些報導中，我們可以相對快速地識別新趨勢並做出反應，我們對今天的儲備水平感到滿意。話雖這麼說，儲量是估計值，並根據不斷變化的趨勢隨時間變化。

As for the effects of Florida House Bill 837. In March, we estimated the reserve changes we believe we needed to capture the effect of the legislation, including the flood of lawsuits triggered by the law change. The reserve increases we took in March represented our best estimate of what we believe would be the full effect of the lawsuits on loss costs for prebill accident periods. Going forward, we believe the legislation takes positive steps to help manage the cost of auto insurance for Florida consumers. However, the situation is evolving, and we will continue to assess and react to information as it develops.

至於佛羅里達州眾議院第 837 號法案的影響。3 月，我們估計了我們認為需要捕捉立法效果所需的準備金變化，包括法律變化引發的大量訴訟。我們在 3 月份增加的準備金代表了我們對訴訟對賬單前事故期間損失成本的全部影響的最佳估計。展望未來，我們相信該立法將採取積極措施來幫助管理佛羅里達州消費者的汽車保險成本。但是，情況在不斷發展，我們將繼續評估信息的發展並對其做出反應。

In Commercial Lines, again, we believe we are adequately reserved today and are monitoring trends in frequency and severity to ensure we remain adequately reserved. Of course, any assumption on reserve adequacy comes with a caveat that trends can change. If they do, we will react to them as appropriate.

同樣，在商業線路中，我們相信我們今天有足夠的儲備，並且正在監測頻率和嚴重程度的趨勢，以確保我們保持足夠的儲備。當然，任何關於儲備充足性的假設都伴隨著趨勢可能改變的警告。如果他們這樣做，我們將酌情作出反應。

The follow-up to the reserving adequacy question is, how did you miss reserving trends in the recent past? And given that, how can you be confident in your current reserve adequacy? I'll address these questions individually. The business of insurance is predicting the future. We never know our full cost of goods sold until years after premiums are collected. As such, our reserves are, by nature, estimates of our exposures based on assumptions. We use historical data, extensive knowledge about our business and customers and advanced analytics to predict ultimate loss costs usually with an extremely high degree of accuracy.

儲備充足性問題的後續問題是，您是如何錯過最近的儲備趨勢的？鑑於此，您如何才能對當前的儲備充足性充滿信心？我將分別解決這些問題。保險業務是預測未來。直到收取保費多年後，我們才知道所售商品的全部成本。因此，我們的儲備本質上是根據假設對我們的風險敞口進行的估計。我們使用歷史數據、關於我們的業務和客戶的廣泛知識以及高級分析來預測最終損失成本，通常具有極高的準確性。

Predicting the future is hard, however, and we didn't fully predict trends that developed during the quarter. We saw higher-than-expected severity trends in previously closed claims in Personal Auto, primarily in fixing vehicle coverages. While I won't speculate on why these trends change, I can tell you that we reacted quickly and decisively to adjust our reserves for these short-tail coverages. I'm confident in the people and processes we have in place to ensure we're adequately reserved.

然而，預測未來很困難，我們沒有完全預測本季度出現的趨勢。我們看到先前已結案的個人汽車索賠的嚴重程度趨勢高於預期，主要是在修復車輛保險方面。雖然我不會推測為什麼這些趨勢會發生變化，但我可以告訴你，我們迅速而果斷地做出反應，調整了這些短尾保險的準備金。我對我們現有的人員和流程充滿信心，以確保我們得到充分保留。

For the 5 years ending 2022, prior year reserve development averaged about 0.25 points unfavorable on our year-end combined ratio, which I believe supports the statement that we always strive to set reserves adequately. Hopefully, these questions and answers address some of the most sought-after explanations of the first quarter. Rest assured that no one is more acutely aware of the results of the first quarter than myself, my team and all the people at Progressive. I continue to be confident in the long-term direction we're headed, and I a little doubt will continue to do everything we can to achieve our goals.

在截至 2022 年的 5 年裡，上一年的儲備開發平均約 0.25 個百分點不利於我們的年終綜合比率，我相信這支持了我們始終努力設置充足儲備的說法。希望這些問題和答案能解決第一季度最受歡迎的一些解釋。請放心，沒有人比我、我的團隊和 Progressive 的所有人更清楚第一季度的結果。我繼續對我們前進的長期方向充滿信心，我有點懷疑會繼續盡一切努力實現我們的目標。

Thank you again for joining us, and I will now take your questions.

再次感謝您加入我們，現在我將回答您的問題。

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. (Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question.

今天活動的先前記錄部分到此結束。現在，我們的管理團隊成員可以現場回答問題。 （操作員說明）我們現在開始第一個問題。

Our first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.

我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

Thanks for the helpful prepared remarks. As a follow-up to the Florida comments, can you elaborate on the legislation? You said the situation is evolving. But you said -- you also said you feel that the legislation is positive. So now ultimately, sometimes past, has there been less claims in Florida in April due to the legislation. Do you feel like it has teeth and there could be kind of a payback for the charges that were taken to the influx of claims?

感謝您準備好的有用評論。作為佛羅里達州評論的後續行動，您能否詳細說明立法？你說情況正在發展。但是你說——你還說你覺得立法是積極的。所以現在最終，有時過去，由於立法，4 月份佛羅里達州的索賠減少了。您是否覺得它有牙齒並且可以對湧入索賠的費用進行某種回報？

Good question, Mike, thanks. So we think the long-term effects of the legislation as it's written today would be very positive for the consumers of Florida. In the meantime, we're very familiar with the plaintiff bar, and we don't know that they will not try to challenge those. So what we did in March was we took a look at the fact that more lawsuits were being filed. And every time we consider our cost we look at, is it estimable and probable. And that's why we strengthened the reserve for possible and likely lawsuits that are going to occur between the time that the governor talked about the legislative bill and the time that he signed it.

好問題，邁克，謝謝。因此，我們認為今天制定的立法的長期影響將對佛羅里達州的消費者產生非常積極的影響。同時，我們對原告律師非常熟悉，我們不知道他們不會嘗試挑戰這些律師。所以我們在 3 月份所做的是，我們審視了更多訴訟被提起的事實。每次我們考慮我們的成本時，我們都會考慮它是否可估計和可能。這就是為什麼我們加強了對州長談論立法法案和他簽署法案之間可能發生的訴訟的準備金。

In fact, in March, there were 280,000 lawsuits filed in Florida, not ours, overall in Florida, civil lawsuits, which is up nearly 130%, the all-time high of May 2021. So significant lawsuits. So short term, we are going to prepare to obviously get through those long term, this will be good. So a couple of good things that came out of the House Bill 837. Comparative laws changed from pure to modify comparatives. So if you're greater than 50%, you don't collect. The statute limitations is from 4 years to 2 years. There's a safe harbor for bad faith, which is really important to us because it takes some time when you get into claim to actually gather the information to make to actually start to negotiate if there's a demand and probably most importantly, repealing one way attorney fees. There's a little bit more than that, but we think those are really good.

事實上，在 3 月份，佛羅里達州提起了 280,000 起訴訟，而不是我們的，總的來說，佛羅里達州的民事訴訟上升了近 130%，是 2021 年 5 月的歷史新高。如此重大的訴訟。所以短期內，我們將準備好度過那些長期的，這會很好。眾議院第 837 號法案帶來了一些好處。比較法從純粹的比較法變為修改比較法。所以如果你超過 50%，你就不會收集。法定時效為 4 年至 2 年。有一個惡意的避風港，這對我們來說非常重要，因為當您提出索賠時需要一些時間來實際收集信息以實際開始談判，如果有需求，可能最重要的是，廢除單向律師費.還有一點，但我們認為這些真的很好。

In the short term, though, we -- this could evolve, and we don't know if it will be challenged. And so we will just react accordingly as we have more information. But overall, we feel very good about the law changes, and we think it's really good more importantly for the consumers of Florida.

不過，在短期內，我們 - 這可能會演變，我們不知道它是否會受到挑戰。因此，當我們獲得更多信息時，我們只會做出相應的反應。但總的來說，我們對法律的變化感到非常滿意，我們認為這對佛羅里達州的消費者來說更重要。

Got it. That's helpful. And my final follow-up, I know you touched on this in your prepared remarks, but pivoting to Personal Lines growth, which has been excellent. I'm trying to juxtapose the comments you made -- what we're seeing is the new applications that appear to be record levels with kind of your comments about needing to take maybe some corrective actions. It sounds like you still feel like Progressive will be a meaningful market share CAGR. I don't want to put words in your mouth. Would that be ultimately, there's more shopping and on average, Progressive's rates are lower than most of your customers. So as long as the industry is taking a lot of rate, you still feel good about the absolute level of growth.

知道了。這很有幫助。我的最後一次跟進，我知道你在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，但轉向了個人專線的增長，這非常好。我試圖將您的評論並列——我們所看到的是新的應用程序似乎是創紀錄的水平，您的評論可能需要採取一些糾正措施。聽起來您仍然覺得 Progressive 的市場份額 CAGR 很有意義。我不想把話塞到你嘴裡。最終會不會有更多的購物，而且平均而言，Progressive 的費率低於您的大多數客戶。因此，只要該行業的增長率很高，您仍然會對絕對增長水平感到滿意。

Yes. I mean I think at any time you reduce advertising, the likelihood of growth on subsiding a little bit is going to happen. We see that in our data. And we have seen our competitors take rate compared to us and even more so -- even more than us. So the hard market really has to do with our people shopping, and they are. So we do feel still bullish on our growth. Let me give you a couple of key stats because I didn't talk about those. I talked a little bit about the new apps, which were tremendous in the all-time history of the company. But let me give you a couple of other interesting stats that we feel really incredible about.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在任何時候你減少廣告，都會發生一點點消退增長的可能性。我們在數據中看到了這一點。而且我們已經看到我們的競爭對手與我們相比採取率更高 - 甚至超過我們。所以硬市場確實與我們的人們購物有關，他們確實如此。因此，我們確實仍然看好我們的增長。讓我給你幾個關鍵統計數據，因為我沒有談論這些。我談到了一些新的應用程序，這些應用程序在公司的歷史上是巨大的。但是讓我給你一些其他有趣的統計數據，我們感到非常不可思議。

So this quarter, we grew policies in force $1.4 million. We grew premium $2.6 billion, which is approximately like 1 point of market share. If you look at even like a 12-month span, we've grown more than $5 billion. And if you think about that, that's the size of a top 10 carrier. So those are a couple I think, interesting an extraordinary tidbits that we feel good about.

所以本季度，我們增加了 140 萬美元的有效保單。我們增加了 26 億美元的保費，大約相當於 1 個百分點的市場份額。如果你看一下 12 個月的跨度，我們已經增長了超過 50 億美元。如果您考慮一下，這就是前 10 大運營商的規模。所以我認為這些是一對夫婦，有趣的是我們感覺良好的非凡花絮。

Also, when you look at growth, you're going to look at both unit growth and premium growth. So maybe unit growth subsides a little bit, we really don't know. We just know that sometimes when you reduce advertising, when you increase advertising, there's the inverse relationship. But there's also premium growth. So as we take more rate to get to our target profit margin, you're going to see some premium growth. And ultimately, our goal is that you'll also see our margins widen.

此外，當您查看增長時，您將同時查看單位增長和保費增長。所以也許單位增長會有所放緩，我們真的不知道。我們只知道，有時當你減少廣告時，當你增加廣告時，存在反比關係。但也有保費增長。因此，隨著我們採用更高的利率來達到我們的目標利潤率，您將看到一些保費增長。最終，我們的目標是您還將看到我們的利潤率擴大。

Mike, the one point I'd add on that is, we don't live in a vacuum, obviously. And our actions I would say, all else equal, will certainly adversely affect growth, less advertising dollars, higher rates for sure. But as we saw last year, as the competitive marketplace was in a bit of disarray even with our aggressive actions, we saw growth. So it will remain to be seen what our competitors do in this environment that we are currently experiencing and if they react aggressively as well, then obviously, our growth won't be as adversely affected.

邁克，我要補充的一點是，我們顯然不是生活在真空中。我要說的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們的行動肯定會對增長產生不利影響，減少廣告收入，提高利率。但正如我們去年所看到的那樣，由於競爭激烈的市場有點混亂，即使我們採取了積極的行動，我們也看到了增長。因此，我們的競爭對手在我們目前正在經歷的這種環境中會做什麼還有待觀察，如果他們也做出積極的反應，那麼顯然，我們的增長不會受到不利影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

My first question, I wanted to get some additional color on the magnitude of additional rates you guys are looking to take from here. In the 10-Q and in your comments, you mentioned being aggressive with rates, raising rates over the remainder of the year. So more specifically, like within Personal Auto, when you say aggressive rates, is that in the low single digits, in the high single digits? Can you just give us a sense of the magnitude of rate increases you're now expecting to take?

我的第一個問題，我想了解一下你們希望從這裡獲得的額外利率的幅度。在 10-Q 和您的評論中，您提到在今年剩餘時間內提高利率。更具體地說，就像在 Personal Auto 中，當你說激進的利率時，是低個位數還是高個位數？你能告訴我們你現在預計加息的幅度嗎？

Sure. I assume that would come up when I didn't give a number. we're going to take as much rate as we need to try to get to our target profit margin. I believe what we've shown, not just over this inflationary period, but over decades with Progressive, that we execute on our ability to do that. We have a great pricing group, a great rate revision group. So we know we can do that.

當然。我想當我沒有給出數字時會出現這種情況。我們將採取盡可能多的利率來嘗試達到我們的目標利潤率。我相信我們所展示的，不僅是在這個通貨膨脹時期，而且是在 Progressive 的幾十年裡，我們執行我們的能力來做到這一點。我們有一個很棒的定價小組，一個很棒的費率修訂小組。所以我們知道我們可以做到。

Now there's all the caveats of regulatory approval, what can happen with weather, which could increase or decrease our desire to have more rates. And of course, it's very specific state, channel product, et cetera. What I would say at this point in time, and again, all the caveats that this is really quite a dynamic time. We think we'll take in the neighborhood of around 10 more points this year to catch up and stay ahead of trend in private passenger auto. So low single digits. But again, that could be 8% to 12%. We don't know. Right now, that's our plan as of today. We're watching as things unfold.

現在有監管批准的所有警告，天氣會發生什麼，這可能會增加或減少我們對更高利率的渴望。當然，它是非常具體的狀態、渠道產品等等。我現在要說的是，所有的警告都表明，這確實是一個充滿活力的時代。我們認為今年我們將再提高 10 點左右，以趕上並保持領先於私人乘用車的趨勢。這麼低的個位數。但同樣，這可能是 8% 到 12%。我們不知道。現在，這是我們今天的計劃。我們正在觀察事情的進展。

Okay. And then could you maybe break down your business for us, the portion you just said, right, 8% to 12% price needed, but the portion of the book that needs rate versus perhaps the portion that you're still looking to grow in? Is there a way to kind of give us a sense of which percentage, and I'm really concerned in talking about Personal Auto, would still perhaps be where you might be looking to grow versus the portion where you just think you need these aggressive level of rate?

好的。然後你能不能為我們分解你的業務，你剛才說的那部分，對，需要 8% 到 12% 的價格，但是這本書中需要費率的部分與你可能仍在尋求增長的部分？有沒有一種方法可以讓我們了解哪個百分比，我真的很關心談論個人汽車，仍然可能是你可能希望增長的地方，而不是你認為你需要這些積極水平的部分率？

Yes. From an auto perspective, we always want to grow as fast as we can, but we are limited sometimes with the regulatory approvals. So obviously, there are places where we haven't got as much rate as we've needed, think the Coast, which we've talked about before, going to need more on those because we've been waiting for some rate increases in some of those states. Some are less where we feel like we're ahead of it. We don't really want to go into details, but suffice it to say, on a country-wide average, we think in the neighborhood about 10% additional this year.

是的。從汽車的角度來看，我們總是希望盡可能快地增長，但有時我們會受到監管批准的限制。所以很明顯，有些地方我們的利率沒有達到我們需要的水平，想想我們之前討論過的海岸，我們需要更多的利率，因為我們一直在等待利率上漲其中一些州。在我們覺得自己領先的地方，有些則更少。我們真的不想詳述細節，但足以說明，就全國平均水平而言，我們認為今年該地區將增加 10% 左右。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of them here for you, Tricia. The first one, Tricia, I remember back to 2016 and all of the discussion about new business penalty as you're growing pretty rapidly. What's the impact of that new business penalty on your Personal Auto results today or in this quarter?

他們中的一些人在這裡等你，特里西婭。第一個，Tricia，我記得回到 2016 年以及所有關於新業務懲罰的討論，因為你的增長非常迅速。新的業務處罰對您今天或本季度的個人汽車業績有何影響？

Well, I think in this quarter, our media expense was up, so you're going to feel that especially on the direct side since we front-load those costs. So I think I said this in the last call. I sort of look at new business penalty as an investment in our future and having our future policyholders. But you did see a higher expense ratio, and we were -- we still had our pedal on for media spend in that first -- in the first quarter this year. So yes, expenses were higher.

好吧，我認為在本季度，我們的媒體費用增加了，所以你會感覺到這一點，尤其是在直接方面，因為我們預先加載了這些費用。所以我想我在上次通話中說過這個。我有點把新的商業懲罰看作是對我們未來和擁有我們未來保單持有人的投資。但是你確實看到了更高的費用比率，而且我們 - 我們仍然在今年第一季度的媒體支出中繼續努力。所以是的，費用更高。

I was thinking more on loss ratio side actually, just because new business typically carries a higher loss ratio.

實際上，我更多地考慮損失率方面，因為新業務通常具有更高的損失率。

Yes, yes, new business does carry a higher loss ratio. That was part of it as well, including a lot of things that happened in the first quarter, record level compared to the last 5 years with weather losses, et cetera. But yes, there is a penalty there as well anytime we have new business.

是的，是的，新業務確實具有更高的損失率。這也是其中的一部分，包括第一季度發生的很多事情，與過去 5 年相比創紀錄的天氣損失等。但是，是的，只要我們有新業務，就會有罰款。

Okay. And then my second question, I'm just curious, if I adjust for the reserving actions taken in Personal Auto in the first quarter, I come up that you're kind of like a 94 combined ratio, ex those reserving actions still below the 96. I guess my question is, is it why are you having to tap the brakes right now given that you're kind of at a 94 ex those [PYD], which I'm assuming you're expecting not to happen here going forward?

好的。然後我的第二個問題，我只是好奇，如果我調整第一季度個人汽車採取的預訂行動，我想你有點像 94 的綜合比率，但那些預訂行動仍然低於96. 我想我的問題是，考慮到你的 94 歲 [PYD]，我假設你不希望在這裡發生，所以你為什麼現在必須踩剎車向前？

Yes, it's that balance, Brian, of our calendar year commitment and our lifetime cohort commitment. And so we're always thinking about the future, we're always trying to balance it. And I would say we're not putting on the brakes. We're definitely going to reduce our media spend, but our intentions are that we still want to grow. I just wanted to say that normally, when we reduce media, it could have anticipated slow growth.

是的，布賴恩，這就是我們歷年承諾和我們終生隊列承諾的平衡。所以我們一直在思考未來，我們一直在努力平衡它。我會說我們不會踩剎車。我們肯定會減少媒體支出，但我們的意圖是我們仍然希望增長。我只是想說，通常情況下，當我們減少媒體時，它可能會預期緩慢增長。

Now John just mentioned, too, a lot of it depends on what's happening with competitors. We're still seeing a lot of ambient shopping. We're seeing -- we still see a very hard market. So our intentions are to get to our calendar year 96 and literally, as soon as we can, if we get to that, depending again on weather, regulatory things, et cetera, we can very easily ramp up our media spend to grow. So it's really that balance of accident year, calendar year commitments.

現在約翰也提到了，這在很大程度上取決於競爭對手的情況。我們仍然看到很多環境購物。我們看到 - 我們仍然看到一個非常艱難的市場。因此，我們的意圖是到我們的日曆 96 年，從字面上看，如果我們能盡快做到這一點，再次取決於天氣、監管等因素，我們可以很容易地增加媒體支出以實現增長。所以這真的是事故年、日曆年承諾的平衡。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

Tricia, you cited overall severity up about 10%. So I'm trying to unpack the pieces. You cited the repair category being the most severe. Could you specify a number around that? And the second part of it is, I noticed the Manheim Index sequentially up 8.6% in the first quarter. So that was a big move. How are you thinking about used car prices as the year moves forward?

Tricia，你提到整體嚴重程度上升了大約 10%。所以我試圖拆開這些碎片。你提到維修類別是最嚴重的。你能指定一個數字嗎？第二部分是，我注意到美瀚指數在第一季度連續上漲 8.6%。所以這是一個重大舉措。隨著時間的推移，您如何看待二手車價格？

Yes, a really good question. There's a lot that goes into the severity of fixing cars. And so a couple of things. We have really -- and I think as an industry, struggled with shop capacity. So our ability to get cars in the throughput to get them out, which could, of course, have effect on length of time, rental, et cetera. Parts prices are up, just a little bit under 3%, and labor rates. So think of the unemployment rate and how there's a problem kind of hiring everywhere. Same thing with mechanical techs in the body shops. But those repair rates are up between 4.5% and 5%. So that's some contributions.

是的，一個非常好的問題。修理汽車的嚴重程度有很多。所以有幾件事。我們真的 - 我認為作為一個行業，在商店容量方面苦苦掙扎。因此，我們讓汽車進入吞吐量以將它們運出的能力，這當然會影響時間長度、租金等。零件價格上漲，略低於 3%，勞動力價格上漲。因此，想想失業率以及到處都存在招聘問題。車身修理廠的機械技術人員也是如此。但這些維修率上升了 4.5% 到 5%。這就是一些貢獻。

And then really, the parts prices, the cost of those haven't really abated either. So what we're really working to do our President of Claims is working with our body shop partners to open up capacity and get those cars in and out. And of course, weather exacerbates that as well. So we still haven't seen -- the Manheim went down a little bit. But again, it pops up and the high over the last several years is extraordinary. So that's kind of the trends we're reacting to. Again, the good part about this is these are short tailed. So we can react to them really quickly, which we have. And then we can continue to watch trends to determine have we taken enough rates for what we need now, in the future.

然後真的，零件價格，那些成本也沒有真正降低。因此，我們真正在努力做的是我們的理賠總裁與我們的車身修理廠合作夥伴合作，以開放產能並讓這些汽車進出。當然，天氣也會加劇這種情況。所以我們還沒有看到 - Manheim 下降了一點。但它再次出現，過去幾年的高點非同尋常。這就是我們正在應對的趨勢。同樣，這方面的好處是這些都是短尾的。所以我們可以非常快速地對他們做出反應，我們已經做到了。然後我們可以繼續觀察趨勢，以確定我們是否採用了足夠的利率來滿足現在和未來的需求。

I see. And you've mentioned non-rate actions, particularly for Commercial. And I think you may have touched on it in Personal. But given the non-rate actions have kind of been a part of the practice for the last couple of years. Is there really much leverage there non-rate actions?

我懂了。你提到了非利率行為，特別是對於商業行為。而且我認為您可能已經在 Personal 中提到過它。但鑑於非利率行動在過去幾年中已成為實踐的一部分。非利率行動真的有很大的槓桿作用嗎？

Yes. Yes. I would say there's a lot of leverage, especially on the Commercial side. And I won't go into all of what we're working on with restrictions on new business, et cetera. But yes, we're able to pretty quickly put those into play to make sure that the new business we're bringing on reach our target profit margins.

是的。是的。我會說有很多槓桿作用，尤其是在商業方面。我不會詳細介紹我們正在開展的所有工作，包括對新業務的限制等等。但是，是的，我們能夠很快將這些發揮作用，以確保我們帶來的新業務達到我們的目標利潤率。

Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So first, I had a question on advertising. And if you can talk about or quantify how much you're pulling back on advertising? And is it in specific regions? Or are you doing it throughout the country?

首先，我有一個關於廣告的問題。如果你能談談或量化你在廣告上的縮減程度？它在特定地區嗎？還是你在全國都這樣做？

Yes. We won't share exactly where we're pulling back, just like we don't share our budget and actually where our budget goes to whether it's mass media or digital. But I will say when we pull back on advertising, we have an incredible media book, and they will -- media group, and they will look at the most inefficient media and pull back accordingly. So that's something that we can dial up or down depending on what's happening with our profit margins. So -- but we won't share that. We can more easily turn local off if we need to, if we can't get right, et cetera. So that's kind of the approach we take to our media. We're really flexible and nimble as we've shown in the past.

是的。我們不會確切地分享我們撤回的地方，就像我們不分享我們的預算一樣，實際上我們的預算去向了大眾媒體還是數字媒體。但我要說的是，當我們撤回廣告時，我們有一本令人難以置信的媒體書籍，他們會——媒體集團，他們會審視效率最低的媒體，並相應地撤回。因此，我們可以根據利潤率的變化來調高或調低這一點。所以 - 但我們不會分享。如果我們需要，如果我們不能正確等等，我們可以更容易地關閉本地。這就是我們對媒體採取的方法。正如我們過去所展示的那樣，我們真的很靈活。

Okay. And then on the -- can you talk about the pricing environment and how conducive is the regulatory environment for adjusting prices? Because I think as companies are raising in the 2021 period, there was a lot of pushback from regulators. Is that -- is the price -- the regulatory environment better for price increases now than it was before? Or do you still expect pushback from regulators and delays in the process of raising prices?

好的。然後 - 你能談談定價環境以及調整價格的監管環境有多有利嗎？因為我認為隨著公司在 2021 年期間的融資，監管機構會遇到很多阻力。那是——價格——現在的監管環境比以前更適合價格上漲嗎？或者您是否仍然期望監管機構的阻力和提價過程的延遲？

I think most of the regulators really do see and are watching these trends and it's not Progressive alone. It's definitely the industry seeing these inflationary trends continue. And so for the majority, as we show the data, they understand what we need for prospective rates. There's always going to be some challenges and we continue to have challenges. Like I said, if you take the 2 states on each coast that we always have a challenge with. But you know what, we're working with the departments of insurance to show and share our data and the need for it because in the long run, what we want to have is competitive prices. That's what makes our industry great, and we want to have available and affordable coverage for people in every state. So availability is really important. We know that. And so we're going to continue to work with the regulators to get that, but there's always a couple of states that could be challenging.

我認為大多數監管機構確實看到並正在關注這些趨勢，而且不僅僅是 Progressive。肯定是行業看到了這些通貨膨脹趨勢的持續。因此，對於大多數人來說，正如我們展示的數據，他們了解我們對預期利率的需求。總會有一些挑戰，我們繼續面臨挑戰。就像我說的，如果你拿下每個海岸的兩個州，我們總是面臨挑戰。但你知道嗎，我們正在與保險部門合作，展示和分享我們的數據以及對數據的需求，因為從長遠來看，我們想要的是有競爭力的價格。這就是我們行業偉大的原因，我們希望為每個州的人們提供可用且負擔得起的保險。所以可用性真的很重要。我們知道。因此，我們將繼續與監管機構合作以實現這一目標，但總有幾個州可能具有挑戰性。

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had is just on frequency trends. And I think they've run reasonably favorable for you all over the last 12 months and just how they've contributed to loss trend. So I just wanted to see if there was any sort of evolving view there and how that will play out and what you saw in 1Q, if you have any update?

我的第一個只是頻率趨勢。而且我認為在過去的 12 個月裡，它們對你來說相當有利，以及它們是如何導致虧損趨勢的。所以我只是想看看那裡是否有任何不斷發展的觀點，這將如何發揮作用，以及你在第一季度看到了什麼，如果你有任何更新？

Yes. I mean frequency in Q1 was relatively flat. We haven't quite seen it come back necessarily to solidly pre-COVID. It's really hard to flesh out frequency trends because there's still so many macroeconomic things that go into, we kind of just try to react to it. And there's always a little bit of noise in one quarter. So we'll continue to watch how frequency goes. Obviously, we have a lot of data from miles driven, vehicle miles traveled from our UBI data, so we watch for that. But that's something that we watch and react to, and there's a lot of inputs and a lot that we don't control.

是的。我的意思是第一季度的頻率相對平坦。我們還沒有完全看到它必然回到 COVID 之前。確實很難充實頻率趨勢，因為仍然有很多宏觀經濟因素，我們只是試圖對其做出反應。而且總有四分之一的噪音。所以我們將繼續觀察頻率如何變化。顯然，我們從我們的 UBI 數據中獲得了大量來自行駛里程和車輛行駛里程的數據，因此我們會密切關注這些數據。但這是我們觀察並做出反應的事情，有很多輸入和很多我們無法控制的。

Understood. Okay. And as a follow-up, I just wanted to ask on bodily injury severity. If you have any update, if you learned anything through 1Q on that front. It sounds like the decisions you're making in terms of the ad spend and growth and so forth in rate or more property damage severity driven, but I just wanted to make sure that there wasn't more of a bodily injury component to this.

明白了。好的。作為後續行動，我只想詢問身體傷害的嚴重程度。如果您有任何更新，如果您通過 1Q 在這方面學到了什麼。這聽起來像是你在廣告支出和增長方面做出的決定，等等，驅動的速度或更多的財產損失嚴重程度，但我只是想確保這沒有更多的人身傷害因素。

Yes. Bodily injury has started to be relatively stable over the last several quarters. Some of the severity increases we saw in Q1 had to do with our large losses, what we call [Stanley], which is soft tissue, attorney rep, non-lit and some closing of soft tissue. So we're able to discern that pretty deeply and watch for that. And of course, obviously, those trends can change as well. But it's been fairly stable. And I think attorney rep levels are being -- are stabilized a little bit more too. And of course, I'll go to Florida because that could -- Florida is a big state, one of our biggest states, so that could change as well depending on how many losses we ultimately get based on House Bill 837.

是的。在過去的幾個季度中，身體傷害已經開始相對穩定。我們在第一季度看到的一些嚴重性增加與我們的巨大損失有關，我們稱之為 [Stanley]，即軟組織、律師代表、不發光和一些軟組織閉合。所以我們能夠非常深刻地辨別並觀察它。當然，很明顯，這些趨勢也會發生變化。但是一直比較穩定。而且我認為律師代表水平也正在穩定一點。當然，我會去佛羅里達，因為那可能——佛羅里達是一個大州，我們最大的州之一，所以這也可能會改變，這取決於我們最終根據眾議院第 837 號法案獲得的損失有多少。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Paul Newsome 和 Piper Sandler 的對話。

A little bit of a follow-up. I was a little surprised not to hear commentary on distracted driving and faster driving being kind of an issue with the reserve issues. And it seems like it's all sort of pieces actually fixing things and the process of the shopping. Is that part of the equation as well? Or has that sort of stabilizes well?

一點跟進。我有點驚訝沒有聽到關於分心駕駛和更快駕駛的評論是儲備問題的一個問題。看起來它實際上是固定物品和購物過程的所有零件。這也是等式的一部分嗎？還是那種穩定性好？

Well, it's hard to discern distracted driving solely on its own because we look at so many different variables. And obviously, we have a lot of data from our usage-based insurance from our snapshot to kind of understand the different variables. And there's a relatedness to that. So if you think about distracted driving and how it could relate to hard break. So it's not -- so we don't look at distracted driving only. So we were just talking before the call on how many more accidents we see. What we can react to, though, is the data where we -- is exactly what we're seeing in terms of accidents, frequency, vehicle mile travel, the congestion. So we look at all of that to understand what's happening and react to that. But I wouldn't say I would have any really further commentary specifically on distracted driving.

好吧，很難單獨辨別分心駕駛，因為我們觀察了太多不同的變量。顯然，我們從我們的快照中獲得了基於使用的保險的大量數據，以了解不同的變量。並且與此相關。因此，如果您考慮分心駕駛及其與硬休息的關係。所以它不是——所以我們不僅僅關注分心駕駛。所以我們只是在電話會議之前討論我們看到了多少事故。不過，我們可以對數據做出反應——這正是我們在事故、頻率、車輛行駛里程、擁堵方面所看到的。因此，我們查看所有這些以了解正在發生的事情並對此做出反應。但我不會說我會對分心駕駛有任何真正進一步的評論。

And then quite separately, can you talk a little bit about the Commercial business. It looked like the big picture that maybe it was all the same trends affecting private passenger auto, but that necessarily hasn't been in the past. So is that the case or all these kind of comments about where the reserve issues are and where the severity is happening in the Commercial business as well? Or is there a difference that's notable between the 2 businesses from a trend perspective?

然後完全分開，你能談談商業業務嗎？從大局來看，也許所有這些趨勢都影響了私人乘用車，但過去不一定如此。那麼，關於儲備金問題在哪里以及商業業務中發生的嚴重程度的情況是否就是這種情況或所有這些評論？或者從趨勢的角度來看，這兩家公司之間是否存在顯著差異？

Yes. So our Commercial Lines, especially when you look at the reserving, is mostly in our core auto and very -- they're seeing very similar trends. And the trucking segment, those are expensive to fix as well. And from the perspective of reserving, we're seeing a little bit more late reports in our reps. Our case reserves are just strengthening from the rep perspective, but pretty similar trends.

是的。因此，我們的商業線路，尤其是當您查看預訂時，主要是在我們的核心汽車中，而且非常——他們看到了非常相似的趨勢。卡車運輸領域的維修成本也很高。從預訂的角度來看，我們在銷售代表中看到了更多的延遲報告。從代表的角度來看，我們的案例儲備只是在加強，但趨勢非常相似。

Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Tricia, just on roughly 10 points of rate that you need to take, I think that's in addition to the 4 points that you already took this year, but correct me if I'm wrong on that. Could you just talk about how much of that is -- you had mentioned a catch up versus just what's needed to keep pace with trend?

Tricia，關於你需要採取的大約 10 點的比率，我認為這是你今年已經採取的 4 點之外的補充，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。你能談談其中有多少——你提到了追趕與跟上趨勢同步所需的東西嗎？

Yes. It was additional to the rate that we took in quarter 1. I won't go into actually talking exactly about what's catched up, et cetera, because we also look at rates perspectively, but we believe at this point with what we're seeing that, that will get us both of those. It will get us to the point where we are at our target profit margin eventually, hopefully, and rate to come to stay ahead of trend specifically.

是的。這是我們在第 1 季度採用的利率之外的額外利率。我不會確切地談論趕上了什麼，等等，因為我們也從角度看待利率，但我們相信在這一點上我們所看到的那個，那會讓我們兩個都得到。這將使我們最終達到我們的目標利潤率，並希望能夠保持領先於趨勢的速度。

Got it. And then just it sounds like you guys are still intending to grow and still feel pretty good about growth despite the lower ad spend. Am I right to interpret that when you think about how the rate adequacy you're not that far off on your existing -- on the existing prices out there and so you feel good about that dynamic?

知道了。然後聽起來你們仍然打算增長並且儘管廣告支出較低但仍然對增長感到非常滿意。我的解釋是否正確，當你考慮利率充足時，你與現有價格相差不遠，所以你對這種動態感覺良好？

Yes, I do feel good about growth. And someone asked a question about underwriting scrutiny, and that's where you can really make sure that you gather more data to be more confident that the new business you're bringing on reaches your target profit margin. So we do feel comfortable with the growth, with the caveats of making sure that we do some extra scrutiny just to make sure that new business for the future is profitable.

是的，我確實對成長感到滿意。有人問了一個關於承銷審查的問題，那是你真正可以確保收集更多數據的地方，以更有信心你所帶來的新業務達到你的目標利潤率。因此，我們確實對增長感到滿意，但要確保我們進行一些額外的審查以確保未來的新業務是有利可圖的。

Pat, do you have anything to add?

帕特，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, just a little other color commentary on Q1's growth. So half of the incredible new business growth we had was from conversion improvements. And in the agency channel, it's more like 3/4. So when you talk about how competitive our prices are on the street, that's a pretty good indication that even with some media pullback, we will continue to have strong competitive rates and with higher levels of ambient shopping, feel pretty good about continuing to grow the business.

是的，只是對第一季度增長的一些其他顏色評論。因此，我們取得的令人難以置信的新業務增長有一半來自轉化率的提高。在代理渠道中，它更像是 3/4。因此，當您談論我們的價格在街上的競爭力時，這是一個很好的跡象，表明即使有一些媒體回落，我們將繼續擁有強大的競爭價格和更高水平的環境購物，對繼續增長感覺非常好商業。

Yes. What I always love to, and we've talked about this the other day in one of my meetings, is every time a situation like this happened and this has been such an incredibly volatile 3 years. When you pull back on advertising or expenses, you always learn something. So we try to take advantage of these times as well to learn something about our advertising and efficiency, et cetera. So we continue to do that as well, just as another comment.

是的。我一直喜歡的是，前幾天我們在我的一次會議上談到過，每次發生這樣的情況，這 3 年都是如此動盪不安。當你減少廣告或開支時，你總會學到一些東西。因此，我們也試圖利用這些時間來了解我們的廣告和效率等方面的知識。所以我們也繼續這樣做，就像另一條評論一樣。

David, on your question on catch-up versus forward looking. Our pricing is always forward-looking. And as we mentioned and Tricia's introductory comments, we clearly were a little off in terms of severities for fixing cars coming into the year. And that obviously was dialed into our indications. We've seen additional data points, as she mentioned, and we are dialing that into our future trend selects.

大衛，關於你關於追趕與前瞻的問題。我們的定價始終具有前瞻性。正如我們提到的和 Tricia 的介紹性評論，我們在今年修理汽車的嚴重性方面顯然有點偏離。這顯然已納入我們的適應症。正如她所提到的，我們已經看到了額外的數據點，我們正在將其納入我們未來的趨勢選擇中。

There was also a discussion around Manheim. Our projections around Manheim, if you look back, for it to come down more aggressively than it has. It has been -- car pricing, in general, has stayed higher than we had anticipated a while back. That all goes into our future trend selects when we are doing our pricing indications. We've obviously dialed those up recently, and that's where we've arrived at the conclusion that we need to get more aggressive on rate.

還圍繞曼海姆進行了討論。我們對曼海姆的預測，如果你回頭看，它會比現在更猛烈地下降。總的來說，汽車定價一直高於我們前一段時間的預期。當我們進行定價指示時，所有這些都會進入我們的未來趨勢選擇。我們最近顯然已經調高了這些，這就是我們得出的結論，我們需要在利率上更加積極。

Our next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

Since higher severity and auto physical damage was a key driver behind adverse development in the quarter, can you reconcile how you got comfortable lowering your view of auto physical damage loss trend this quarter to 15% versus 20% last year?

由於更高的嚴重程度和汽車物理損壞是本季度不利發展背後的關鍵驅動因素，您能否協調將本季度汽車物理損壞損失趨勢的觀點從去年的 20% 降低到 15%？

Well, I can give you a color of why we believe there's higher severity this quarter. And there's always a lot of noise in the quarter, but much of what you're seeing with the higher versus collision has to do with some older claims that are now working its way through our inbound subrogation. So if you think about claims at the height of ACV, et cetera, we're working through those. So that would be my point about the property damage severity trend. I'm not sure if I answered your question or...

好吧，我可以告訴你為什麼我們認為本季度的嚴重性更高。本季度總是有很多噪音，但你所看到的較高與碰撞的大部分情況都與一些較舊的索賠有關，這些索賠現在正在通過我們的入境代位求償。因此，如果你考慮在 ACV 等高峰期提出的索賠，我們正在努力解決這些問題。所以這就是我關於財產損失嚴重程度趨勢的觀點。我不確定我是否回答了你的問題或...

Yes. In your Q or your K, you break out all the components, the loss trend. So within severity, I just noticed in the Q, auto physical damage was up 15%. I look at the 10-K, it was 20% last year, but directionally, it looks like it's down, doesn't seem to reconcile with the comments made earlier on the call and adverse development taken in the quarter. So I just wanted to understand why you took down your view of loss trend within auto physical damage?

是的。在您的 Q 或 K 中，您打破了所有組成部分，即損失趨勢。所以在嚴重程度內，我剛剛在 Q 中註意到，汽車物理傷害增加了 15%。我看 10-K，去年是 20%，但從方向上看，它看起來下降了，似乎與早些時候在電話會議上發表的評論和本季度的不利發展不一致。所以我只是想了解為什麼您取消了對汽車物理損壞中損失趨勢的看法？

Maybe a clarification. It's not our view of loss trend there. That is a retrospective looking number. So that is simply saying physical damage severity this quarter versus last year first quarter, similarly, when you looked at last year's numbers. So it is a consecutive retrospective metric. Does that help?

也許是一個澄清。這不是我們對那裡的損失趨勢的看法。這是一個回顧性的數字。因此，這只是說本季度與去年第一季度相比的物理損壞嚴重程度，同樣，當您查看去年的數字時。所以這是一個連續的追溯指標。這有幫助嗎？

Okay. And so would 20% even be the right number to think about for last year, given all the adverse development you've taken in that accident year or it's not correlated to given what you just said?

好的。考慮到你在那個事故年所經歷的所有不利發展，或者它與你剛才所說的無關，那麼 20% 甚至是考慮去年的正確數字嗎？

So each quarter we're providing you versus the previous period change in severity there. So we normally provide you the quarter and the year-to-date. And so right now, we're up 15% versus previous quarter for property damage. So you mentioned physical damage. Property damages the third-party coverage for fixing cars.

因此，每個季度我們都會向您提供與上一時期相比嚴重程度的變化。因此，我們通常會為您提供季度和年初至今的數據。所以現在，我們的財產損失比上一季度增加了 15%。所以你提到了物理損傷。修理汽車的財產損失第三方保險。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

If we go back 2 years ago to this conference call after the 1Q '21 10-Q, you announced that you were taking rate. And when we saw May 2021 results, growth had just ground to a halt. You had very little regulatory approval at that point, very little premium written or earned at the new rates. And you were able to stop the growth almost immediately. What were some of the skills that you had that you were able to do that before you had even taken the rate? And what aren't you going to do this time compared to the urgency that you were able to stop the growth in 2021?

如果我們回到 2 年前的 1Q '21 10-Q 之後的這個電話會議，你宣布你正在採取利率。當我們看到 2021 年 5 月的結果時，增長剛剛停止。那時你幾乎沒有獲得監管批准，以新利率承保或賺取的保費也很少。而且您幾乎可以立即停止增長。在你接受費率之前，你有哪些技能可以做到這一點？與您能夠在 2021 年停止增長的緊迫性相比，您這次不打算做什麼？

Yes. We're going to use the similar levers, and that's why I tried to answer in my opening question-and-answer session. At that point, regulators -- we were ahead of the curve, ahead of the competition. So regulators were still, I think, worried about the effects of the people giving us back with the COVID, et cetera, which I'm very proud of all that we did with that, but very similar levers that we used last time. I think also what we're seeing now, though, is that it's a very hard market. So I think both Pat and John talked about the rate increases that our competitors are taking, which is still causing some shopping.

是的。我們將使用類似的槓桿，這就是為什麼我在開場問答環節中嘗試回答的原因。那時，監管機構——我們走在了曲線的前面，走在了競爭的前面。因此，我認為，監管機構仍然擔心人們用 COVID 等方式回饋我們的影響，我為我們所做的一切感到非常自豪，但我們上次使用的槓桿非常相似。不過，我認為我們現在看到的是，這是一個非常艱難的市場。所以我認為 Pat 和 John 都談到了我們的競爭對手正在加息，這仍然引起了一些購物。

So even though we'll use similar levers, we've been able to grow, like I gave you some of the stats first quarter. And so we believe that, that may continue depending again on what competition does. I think regulators started seeing way more companies come in with very similar data, and they know that if they want to have available coverage for their constituents that we have to put this through the system. It's just -- it's the bottom line, what we're seeing from an inflationary trend.

因此，儘管我們將使用類似的槓桿，但我們已經能夠成長，就像我在第一季度給你的一些統計數據一樣。因此，我們相信，這可能會再次取決於競爭的方式。我認為監管機構開始看到越來越多的公司提供非常相似的數據，他們知道如果他們想為其選民提供可用的覆蓋範圍，我們必須將其通過系統。這只是——這是底線，我們從通脹趨勢中看到的。

All right. And then in the 10-Q, you mentioned that the current year impact of HB 837 was less than 100 basis points on the quarter. Can I extrapolate that it was 200 or 300 basis points for the month of March?

好的。然後在 10-Q 中，您提到 HB 837 本年度對本季度的影響不到 100 個基點。我可以推斷 3 月份是 200 或 300 個基點嗎？

Yes, you probably could. I haven't really done the math on that. But what we did is we looked at -- we looked at what we thought would be probable and estimable based on the thought of lawsuits that happened in a short period of time before the bill was signed. And again, that could evolve because some of those things may or may not actually happen. But yes, that math is probably pretty accurate. And again, that's something that will continue to evolve.

是的，你可能會。我還沒有真正計算過。但我們所做的是我們查看了——我們根據法案簽署前短時間內發生的訴訟的想法，查看了我們認為可能和可估計的內容。而且，這可能會演變，因為其中一些事情可能會或可能不會實際發生。但是，是的，該數學可能非常準確。再一次，這將繼續發展。

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 系列。

My first question, looking at just the tremendous growth we've seen quarter-to-date, can you maybe talk about the weighting of Sam's, Diane's, Wrights, Robinsons among those customers that were added? And even among new applications, like are those roughly -- is that distribution roughly in line with what you have in the in-force book?

我的第一個問題，看看我們本季度迄今看到的巨大增長，您能否談談 Sam's、Diane's、Wrights、Robinsons 在新增客戶中的權重？甚至在新的應用程序中，這些分佈大致與您在有效書中的分佈大致一致嗎？

Yes. I think we're out in the queue. Pat or John can weigh in on this. I think we grew in all segments. I think we've -- I think we've increased in Robinsons from an auto home bundle. Sam's are going to be more likely to continue to shop. So there's always the PLE part of that. But I think we grew against all segments.

是的。我想我們要排隊了。 Pat 或 John 可以對此進行權衡。我認為我們在各個領域都有所成長。我認為我們已經 - 我認為我們已經從汽車家庭捆綁包中增加了 Robinsons。 Sam's 將更有可能繼續購物。所以總有 PLE 部分。但我認為我們在所有細分市場中都在成長。

Yes, that's right. From an app perspective, we saw positive growth in the quarter for new apps across all segments. And our fastest growth was really in the Wright and Robinsons and Diane's also grew. So Sam's grew just a little slower, but they grew as well. From a PIF perspective, we also saw positive growth across all segments during the quarter. So faster in the segments that are not Sam's, but...

恩，那就對了。從應用程序的角度來看，我們看到本季度所有細分市場的新應用程序都出現了積極增長。我們增長最快的是 Wright、Robinsons 和 Diane 的增長。所以山姆的增長速度慢了一點，但它們也在增長。從 PIF 的角度來看，我們還看到本季度所有細分市場都出現了正增長。在不是 Sam 的部分中速度如此之快，但是......

And just for those unfamiliar with our nomenclature, Wrights are homeowners who don't bundle with us. So Robinsons as well known, I think, by this audience. Wrights are homeowners who have their auto insurance, perhaps some other products with this as well. And that's where we've actually grown the fastest. And in the agency channel, especially where we are limited to our -- what we think of as our manufacturer or underwritten property product, Progressive Home, we have been pulling back in a number of markets to revise our geographic footprint. And it's encouraging to see that we are still growing with home-owning households, even though in a lot of markets where we're restricting the property piece of that portfolio.

對於那些不熟悉我們術語的人來說，萊特人是不與我們捆綁在一起的房主。因此，我認為，Robinsons 被這些聽眾所熟知。 Wrights 是擁有汽車保險的房主，也許還有其他一些產品。這就是我們實際上增長最快的地方。在代理渠道中，特別是在我們僅限於我們的製造商或承銷的房地產產品 Progressive Home 的地方，我們一直在撤回許多市場以修改我們的地理足跡。令人鼓舞的是，我們仍在與擁有住房的家庭一起成長，儘管在許多市場上我們限制了該投資組合中的房地產部分。

So we're still growing in Robinsons as well as Pat pointed out. And Diane's are what we think of as renters who are stable in their insuring habits. So growing more in the more stable sectors and growing homeowners considerably even without the bundle, which is also encouraging to see.

因此，正如帕特指出的那樣，我們仍在 Robinsons 中成長。黛安的是我們認為的租房者，他們的保險習慣很穩定。因此，即使沒有捆綁，在更穩定的行業中也會有更多的增長，並且房主的數量也會大大增加，這也令人鼓舞。

And then my next question, I guess, goes back to I think several other versions of this question that were asked on the call already. And I'm just looking at comments coming into my e-mail over the course of this call. It seems like there is still some lingering investor confusion around what I would say maybe is the sense of urgency and aggressiveness coming from you talking about kind of the need to take some corrective actions. And the year-to-date data that we're seeing, mainly 95-ish combined ratio when we take out some of the reserve adjustments that we assume will not go forward. So I was hoping to maybe take another stab at that will give you another opportunity to maybe clarify some of that confusion.

然後我想我的下一個問題可以追溯到我認為已經在電話會議上問過的這個問題的其他幾個版本。我只是在查看在本次電話會議過程中收到的電子郵件中的評論。似乎投資者對我所說的可能仍然存在一些揮之不去的困惑，也許是你談論採取一些糾正措施的必要性所帶來的緊迫感和進取心。我們看到的年初至今的數據，主要是 95 左右的綜合比率，當我們排除一些我們假設不會繼續進行的準備金調整時。所以我希望再試一次，這會給你另一個機會來澄清一些困惑。

Yes. It's really all about our calendar year goal. So -- we appreciate the fact that we will look at our long-term growth as long as well as our short-term growth. But we've had a very long stated goal for long-term holders, for our investment community that we will do everything we can to treat our calendar year 96. And we're not there. We're at 99. And so that's why we're taking aggressive actions.

是的。這真的是關於我們日曆年的目標。所以 - 我們很高興我們將關注我們的長期增長以及我們的短期增長。但我們對長期持有人和我們的投資界有一個很長的目標，即我們將盡我們所能來對待我們的日曆年 96。我們沒有在那裡。我們是 99。這就是我們採取積極行動的原因。

The great part is we have lots of levers that we can quickly move. And our nimbleness, specifically here Progressive will be the benefit. So if things turn around dramatically in the next 4 months, again, the caveats are regulatory approval, weather, inflationary trends, we'll be able to put on growth. But also -- and that's why I gave those stats at the beginning. The growth has been unbelievable, and we don't think it's going to come to a screeching halt. We know that there's a relationship between advertising and new business apps we're still feeling positive.

重要的是我們有很多可以快速移動的槓桿。而我們的靈活性，特別是這裡的進步將是有益的。因此，如果情況在未來 4 個月內發生戲劇性轉變，同樣，警告是監管批准、天氣、通脹趨勢，我們將能夠實現增長。而且——這就是為什麼我在一開始就給出了這些統計數據。增長令人難以置信，我們認為它不會戛然而止。我們知道廣告和新的商業應用程序之間存在聯繫，但我們仍然感到樂觀。

So I hope my letter, the queue and my comments didn't say this growth is going to come to a screeching halt. What I wanted to do is just say, hey, that can very well happen when we reduce advertising and always has in the past. To what degree is very dependent on all those things, including competition.

所以我希望我的信、隊列和我的評論沒有說這種增長將會戛然而止。我想做的只是說，嘿，當我們減少廣告並且過去一直如此時，這很可能會發生。在多大程度上取決於所有這些因素，包括競爭。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾沃德與花旗的合作。

I noticed policy life expectancies trended positively in the quarter. Just hoping you could help us understand what goes into that metric? And how should we think about that trending now that you're raising prices again and have added a lot of new customers?

我注意到本季度的保單預期壽命呈積極趨勢。只是希望您能幫助我們了解該指標的內容？既然你們再次提高價格並增加了很多新客戶，我們應該如何看待這種趨勢？

Well, it traded positive on a trailing 3. It's still down on a trailing 12. We think trailing 3 is more indicative of what's happening. Again, that may and could change depending on the rate increases. That's usually what we see happen. The PLE is just our likelihood for our customer, the length of time our customers are likely to stay. So the trailing 3 is pretty -- is more recent activity. We'll have to continue to watch that trend to see if any of our rate actions affect that negatively.

好吧，它在尾隨 3 時交易積極。它仍然在尾隨 12 時下跌。我們認為尾隨 3 更能說明正在發生的事情。同樣，這可能會並且可能會根據利率的增加而改變。這通常是我們看到的情況。 PLE 只是我們對客戶的可能性，我們的客戶可能停留的時間長度。所以尾隨的 3 很漂亮——是最近的活動。我們將不得不繼續關注這一趨勢，看看我們的任何利率行動是否會對其產生負面影響。

And then on the investment portfolio. I was just hoping you could provide some color on the strategy in CMBS. I know there's new disclosure in the queue. Just specifically curious why you guys favor single properties, CMBS, especially office. I'm wondering if you could sort of comment on the sales that you mentioned in the Q thus far?

然後是投資組合。我只是希望你能為 CMBS 的策略提供一些色彩。我知道隊列中有新的披露。只是特別好奇為什麼你們喜歡單一房產、CMBS，尤其是辦公室。我想知道您是否可以對到目前為止在 Q 中提到的銷售額發表評論？

Absolutely. I'll have Jon Bauer weigh in. But I will say from -- we added the chart in on the Q for CMBS this year. And I'll say that Jon was ahead of the curve in terms of starting to reduce our risk in CMBS over a year ago. But I'll let him walk through why he did that and where we're headed from here. Jon?

絕對地。我會讓喬恩鮑爾權衡。但我會說 - 我們今年在 CMBS 的 Q 中添加了圖表。我要說的是，喬恩在一年前開始降低我們在 CMBS 中的風險方面走在了前列。但我會讓他解釋一下他為什麼這麼做，以及我們將從這裡走向何方。喬恩？

Yes. Thanks so much for the question, Michael. So just to take a step back, and then I'll try to hit it as specifically as possible. About first quarter 2022, when we looked at the portfolio, and we looked at the overall macro environment, we saw that the portfolio we came into early 2022, which didn't match our macro views going forward. So several actions that we look to take at that point.

是的。非常感謝邁克爾的問題。因此，退後一步，然後我將嘗試盡可能具體地擊中它。大約在 2022 年第一季度，當我們審視投資組合和整體宏觀環境時，我們發現我們進入 2022 年初的投資組合與我們對未來的宏觀看法不符。我們希望在這一點上採取的幾項行動。

So first of all, on the interest rate side, we sort of ended January around 3 and then 8s on our interest rate duration. We thought that was too high given the environment. So we allowed that to shift down throughout the year to about the $275 million by October and then look to move that back up again to 3. On the equity side, we thought, overall, given what the actions were likely to be that equities were likely to see more volatility than we have seen in the past and therefore, look to reduce our equity exposure pretty much cut in half to what we are right now.

因此，首先，在利率方面，我們的利率期限在 1 月左右結束，然後是 8 秒左右。考慮到環境，我們認為這太高了。因此，我們允許這一數字在全年下降至 10 月份的 2.75 億美元左右，然後再次將其回升至 3。在股票方面，我們認為，總體而言，考慮到股票可能採取的行動可能會看到比我們過去看到的更多的波動，因此，我們希望將我們的股票敞口減少到現在的一半。

And then we looked across our non-sort of cash and treasury fixed income portfolio and said, if we hit a recession, where is it that we think that we would be most uncomfortable. And the 3 areas that we sort of identified to watch and that we wanted to hold taking any further credit risk was residential mortgage-backed securities, CLOs and commercial mortgage-backed securities. I would say, in the 12 months since then, as many of you witnessed, the housing market has probably performed better than many thought. And the same has been true within our residential mortgage-backed securities. So we even though that shrunk as a portion of our portfolio, we think the housing market is better than we thought.

然後我們審視了我們的非現金和國債固定收益投資組合，並說，如果我們陷入衰退，我們認為我們最不舒服的地方是什麼。我們確定要關注的 3 個領域，我們希望承擔任何進一步的信用風險，是住宅抵押貸款支持證券、CLO 和商業抵押貸款支持證券。我想說，從那以後的 12 個月裡，正如你們中的許多人所見證的那樣，房地產市場的表現可能比許多人想像的要好。我們的住宅抵押貸款支持證券也是如此。因此，儘管這在我們的投資組合中有所縮減，但我們認為房地產市場比我們想像的要好。

In terms of CLOs, I would say it's still to be determined what the corporate default rate looks like going forward, but feel very comfortable with our position there, even though it's smaller versus last year. And then that takes us to commercial mortgage-backed securities. In that portfolio as opposed to just not adding and allowing the runoff to happen, we prospectively looked at the portfolio and said, if we were to hit a recession, which are the securities in here that we think in a severe recession could get hit. And with that, we looked over the last year to reduce out of those securities. And as you can see, year-on-year, CMBS represented about 13% of the portfolio at the end of the first quarter 2022, it represents less than 8% of the portfolio right now. So what encompasses that we felt like we wanted to give the disclosure.

就 CLO 而言，我想說企業違約率的未來走勢仍有待確定，但我們對我們在那裡的地位感到非常滿意，儘管它比去年要小。然後這將我們帶到商業抵押貸款支持證券。在該投資組合中，我們不只是不增加並允許徑流發生，而是前瞻性地研究了投資組合，並說，如果我們遭遇經濟衰退，我們認為這裡的哪些證券可能會在嚴重的經濟衰退中受到打擊。因此，我們回顧了去年減少這些證券的情況。正如您所看到的，與去年同期相比，CMBS 在 2022 年第一季度末約佔投資組合的 13%，目前佔投資組合的不到 8%。那麼我們覺得我們想要披露的內容包括什麼。

On the office side, 2 major drivers of that portfolio. The first thing is trophy office. So these are offices that were built in the last 10 years or so, that our view was -- would have significant demand, especially as different companies look to shrink their footprint, but look to be in the best quality buildings. And then the second part of the portfolio is if it's not trophy office, we would want it at least 4 to 5 years past maturity to an incredibly strong investment-grade tenant.

在辦公室方面，該投資組合的 2 個主要驅動因素。首先是獎杯辦公室。所以這些是在過去 10 年左右建造的辦公室，我們的觀點是 - 會有很大的需求，特別是因為不同的公司希望縮小他們的足跡，但希望在最優質的建築中。然後投資組合的第二部分是，如果它不是獎杯辦公室，我們希望它至少在到期後 4 到 5 年成為一個非常強大的投資級租戶。

And so that makes up the core of the portfolio with a single asset portfolio, it allows us to look and pick individual buildings that we would underwrite as opposed to a conduit type thing, where you have a lot of different type of quality of buildings that we think are a lot lesser than they are on the single asset side.

因此，這構成了具有單一資產組合的投資組合的核心，它使我們能夠查看和選擇我們將承保的單個建築物，而不是管道類型的東西，在管道類型的東西中，你有很多不同類型的建築物我們認為它們比單一資產方面的要少得多。

So with that, and as we mentioned, the disclosure, we have no delinquencies in the portfolio. We have about $350 million of maturities over the next year in the overall CMBS portfolio, and we expect them, even in this type of environment, all to be refinanced without a problem. I don't know if that answers your question, but please let me know if I could give you any more specifics.

因此，正如我們提到的那樣，披露後，我們的投資組合沒有拖欠。在整個 CMBS 投資組合中，明年我們有大約 3.5 億美元的到期債券，我們預計即使在這種環境下，它們也能毫無問題地進行再融資。我不知道這是否回答了您的問題，但如果我可以為您提供更多細節，請告訴我。

Yes. No, that was tremendously helpful. Maybe just on what you shedded recently, recent quarters, did you trim California, Seattle?

是的。不，那非常有幫助。也許就在你最近，最近幾個季度，你是否削減了加州和西雅圖？

Yes. So I would take it a lot more broadly than that. Again, for us, and I would -- since we have the opportunity to talk here, I would say this across our portfolio, not just in commercial real estate. What we are constantly doing is looking and saying, are we getting paid for the risk that we're taking in the security or that one? For CMBS in particular, it was the first thing going back to February, March of last year, is there any tenant rollover where we think this building could be vacant coming into their maturities. So get rid of that one. Is there any buildings where we don't think the owners are going to put the money into the building in order to get it to the quality, to lease up, get rid of that one. And so what that left us with broadly across the portfolio was trophy real estate and then ones that have really strong tenancy, 5 years or longer past the maturity.

是的。所以我會比這更廣泛地接受它。再次，對於我們來說，我會 - 因為我們有機會在這裡交談，所以我會在我們的投資組合中這樣說，而不僅僅是在商業房地產中。我們一直在做的是觀察和說，我們是否因承擔安全風險或那個風險而獲得報酬？特別是對於 CMBS，這是回到去年 2 月、3 月的第一件事，是否有任何租戶翻轉，我們認為這座大樓可能在到期時空置。所以擺脫那個。是否有任何建築物，我們認為業主不會將錢投入建築物以使其達到質量，出租，擺脫那棟建築物。因此，讓我們在整個投資組合中擁有廣泛的是獎杯房地產，然後是那些租賃期非常長、到期時間超過 5 年或更長時間的房地產。

So I wouldn't focus geography. By geography necessarily, I'm more on what's the quality of the building, what's the quality of the tenancy. And I think that's what left us with the portfolio with no delinquencies where we feel confident in the next 12 months of maturities.

所以我不會關注地理。就地理而言，我更關心建築的質量，租賃的質量。我認為這就是讓我們的投資組合沒有拖欠的原因，我們對未來 12 個月的到期有信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research。

Yes. Just a couple here. So I guess the first question, on the 10 points of rate. So when we go back like a year ago, I think it was on this call, where you guys said you were done taking outsized rate increases. I guess since then, you guys never stopped taking rate increases. I think since then, you've gotten like 9 points in the aggregate, so I guess when I think about like this extra 10 points that you're saying you need over the next 3 quarters and thinking about the fact that you've actually taken almost that much like in the trailing 4 quarters, it really just doesn't seem like that much of a step-up versus what we're seeing. But yes, just your comments on whether or not I'm thinking about that correctly.

是的。這裡只有一對。所以我猜第一個問題，關於 10 分的比率。所以當我們回到一年前時，我想是在這次電話會議上，你們說你們已經完成了大幅加息。我想從那以後，你們就再也沒有停止過加息。我想從那以後，你總共得到了 9 分，所以我想當我想到你說你在接下來的 3 個季度需要額外的 10 分，並考慮你實際上已經與過去的 4 個季度幾乎一樣，與我們所看到的相比，它似乎並沒有那麼大的進步。但是，是的，只是您對我是否正確考慮的評論。

Yes. I mean what we prefer to do is, obviously, we want to be ahead of the rates to achieve our target profit margins. We prefer to take small bites to the apple, which we did in first quarter, but then we saw the data change dramatically. And so for our future rate need, we believe at this point that around 10 rates is sort of the neighborhood of what we'll need on the private passenger auto side. So I think you're thinking about it. Okay. I mean what we said in the quarter is that we thought the largest rate increases were behind us, but this has been a really volatile time. And so we're just reacting to what we're seeing right now.

是的。我的意思是，我們更願意做的是，顯然，我們希望領先於利率以實現我們的目標利潤率。我們更喜歡小口吃蘋果，這是我們在第一季度所做的，但隨後我們看到數據發生了巨大變化。因此，對於我們未來的費率需求，我們認為目前大約 10 個費率是我們在私人客運汽車方面所需要的附近。所以我認為你正在考慮它。好的。我的意思是我們在本季度所說的是我們認為最大的加息已經過去，但這是一個非常動蕩的時期。所以我們只是對我們現在看到的做出反應。

Right. I would just add that over...

正確的。我只想補充一下......

John wanted to add a comment.

約翰想添加評論。

I was just going to say, over time, we have been very well served, analyzing the data very expeditiously and taking action as we see changes. So as Tricia mentioned, if things don't play out in terms of loss trend as we are expecting, we can always pull back. We can always even take rates down. I would be surprised if we do that, but we can certainly pull back. But continually, we find we are way better off looking at the data every single month. And to the extent we think things have changed taking action expeditiously.

我只是想說，隨著時間的推移，我們得到了很好的服務，非常迅速地分析數據並在看到變化時採取行動。因此，正如 Tricia 提到的那樣，如果事情沒有像我們預期的那樣在損失趨勢方面發揮作用，我們總是可以撤退。我們甚至可以隨時降低利率。如果我們這樣做，我會感到驚訝，但我們當然可以後退。但不斷地，我們發現每個月查看數據會更好。在某種程度上，我們認為事情已經發生變化，我們會迅速採取行動。

Got it. And then I've got a couple of questions on just whether or not there might be like some adverse selection going on. If you could just comment on like where you're seeing the loss trend, the issues in the book? Is it -- would you say it's disproportionately toward the new business that you put on? Or are you kind of talking about that broadly across the book?

知道了。然後我有幾個問題是關於是否可能存在一些逆向選擇。如果你能評論一下你看到損失趨勢的地方，書中的問題？它 - 你會說它與你開展的新業務不成比例嗎？還是您在整本書中都在廣泛談論這一點？

No. I mean I think where adverse selection comes into place specifically is for those companies that have industry-leading segmentation. And we believe we have that. We believe we have that with our variables, with our UBI, et cetera. So we actually feel good that we talked a little bit about the underlying loss cost. We feel pretty good about that. There's just some trends that we're seeing that we need to get ahead of. So our goal, of course, is to rate accurately and be aggressive in getting the right rate at the right time on the street. And if you do that and you have segmentation like we do, adverse selection should happen, but not to us.

不，我的意思是我認為逆向選擇特別適用於那些擁有行業領先細分的公司。我們相信我們有。我們相信我們有我們的變量，我們的 UBI 等等。所以我們實際上感覺很好，我們談到了一些潛在的損失成本。我們對此感覺很好。我們看到了一些我們需要領先的趨勢。因此，我們的目標當然是準確評分，並積極主動地在街上的正確時間獲得正確的費率。如果你這樣做並且像我們一樣進行細分，逆向選擇應該發生，但不會發生在我們身上。

Yes. The only thing I would add is -- the only thing I would add on the mix of business that we're getting in the quality is to the contrary, we feel very good about the quality of business we put on during fourth quarter and first quarter. We're constantly paranoid. We always watch and we look closely to ensure that the mix that's being shed by our competitors as they transfer market share to us, we watch closely, and we are seeing clean business. We're seeing homeowner business, as John mentioned, long prior insurance periods, multi-car. So it's exactly the business that we intend to grow with, and we're pretty happy with what we're seeing contrary to any adverse selection.

是的。我唯一要補充的是 - 我唯一要補充的是我們在質量方面的業務組合恰恰相反，我們對第四季度和第一季度的業務質量感覺非常好四分之一。我們總是偏執。我們一直在密切關注並密切關注，以確保我們的競爭對手在將市場份額轉移給我們時正在流失的組合，我們密切關注，我們看到的是乾淨的業務。我們看到房主業務，正如約翰提到的，保險期長，多車。因此，這正是我們打算與之一起成長的業務，我們對所看到的與任何逆向選擇相反的情況感到非常滿意。

We've exhausted our scheduled time and so that concludes our event forum. I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

我們已經用完了預定的時間，我們的活動論壇到此結束。我會把結束腳本的電話轉給你。

That concludes the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.

Progressive Corporation 的第一季度投資者活動到此結束。有關事件重播的信息將在明年的 Progressive 網站的投資者關係部分提供。您現在可以斷開連接。