PennyMac Financial Services Inc (PFSI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to PennyMac Financial Services Inc., fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Additional earnings materials including presentation slides that will be referred to in this call are available on PennyMac Financial's website at pfsi.pennymac.com.

下午好，歡迎參加 PennyMac Financial Services Inc. 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議中提到的其他收益資料（包括簡報投影片）可在 PennyMac Financial 的網站 pfsi.pennymac.com 上找到。

Before we begin, let me remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks identified on slide 2 of the earnings presentation that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially, as well as non-GAAP measures that have been reconciled to their GAAP equivalent in the earnings materials.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受收益報告第2 頁中確定的某些風險的影響，這些風險可能會導致公司的實際結果出現重大差異，以及非GAAP 指標已與收益材料中的 GAAP 等值部分進行了調整。

Now I'd like to introduce David Spector, PennyMac Financial's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Perotti, PennyMac Financial's Chief Financial Officer. You may begin.

現在我想介紹 PennyMac Financial 的董事長兼執行長 David Spector；以及 PennyMac Financial 的財務長 Dan Perotti。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you to everyone for participating in our fourth-quarter earnings call. For the fourth quarter, PFSI reported net income of $104 million, or diluted earnings per share of $1.95 for an annualized return on equity of 11%. Excluding the impact of fair value changes, PFSI produced an annualized operating ROE of 16%, driven by continued strength in our Servicing business and a solid contribution from our Production segment despite higher mortgage rates.

謝謝您，接線生。下午好，感謝大家參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。PFSI 報告第四季淨收入為 1.04 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 1.95 美元，年化股本回報率為 11%。剔除公允價值變動的影響，儘管抵押貸款利率上升，但 PFSI 的年化營業 ROE 為 16%，這得益於服務業務的持續強勁發展和生產部門的穩健貢獻。

In total, loan originations and acquisitions were $36 billion in unpaid principal balance, up 13% from the prior quarter and driving the continued growth of our servicing portfolio to $666 billion in unpaid principal balance with 2.6 million customers.

總體而言，貸款發放和收購的未償還本金餘額為 360 億美元，較上一季增長 13%，推動我們的服務組合繼續增長至 6,660 億美元，未償還本金餘額覆蓋 260 萬客戶。

Before I continue on, I would like to talk about a change that we are reporting our financial results and reporting segments. We took the opportunity to address our financial reporting for the evolution of our businesses and the way we manage them.

在繼續之前，我想談談我們報告財務結果和報告分部的變化。我們藉此機會討論了財務報告對於我們業務發展和管理方式的影響。

As a result, we have modified our segment definitions. The principal change we made was to remove the corporate overhead allocations from our business segments to better evaluate the performance of our operating businesses. We also determined that our Investment Management business was not an operational segment, and as such, the related results are now consolidated into corporate and other items.

因此，我們修改了我們的細分定義。我們所做的主要改變是從我們的業務部門中取消企業間接費用分配，以便更好地評估我們營運業務的績效。我們也確定我們的投資管理業務不是營運分部，因此，相關結果現在合併到公司和其他專案中。

Our two operating segments are now Production and Servicing, and we have included non-segment activities and activities related to our investment management business in corporate and other. Prior period amounts have been recast to conform these periods presentation to the current period presentation, and I encourage investors to view the Excel supplement posted on pfsi.pennymac.com for more detailed information.

我們現在有兩個營運分部：生產和服務，我們已將非分部活動以及與我們的投資管理業務相關的活動納入企業及其他業務。已重訂前期金額，以使這些期間的呈現與當前期間的呈現相一致，我鼓勵投資者查看 pfsi.pennymac.com 上發布的 Excel 補充文件，以獲取更詳細的資訊。

Now back to our results. The fourth quarter marked the end of a very successful year for PFSI as you can see on slide 4 of our earnings presentation. We highlighted some of our key achievements in 2024, which demonstrates the earnings power of our balanced business model and the significant gains in operating leverage we achieved.

現在回到我們的結果。正如您在我們收益報告第 4 張幻燈片中看到的那樣，第四季度標誌著 PFSI 非常成功的一年的結束。我們強調了 2024 年的一些關鍵成就，這證明了我們平衡的業務模式的盈利能力以及我們實現的經營槓桿的顯著增長。

In the production segment, total acquisition and origination volumes were $116 billion in UPB, up 17% from 2023, driven by a nearly 70% increase in originations from the direct lending channels. Production segment revenues were up 47% from 2023, and despite the large mix shift, expenses remain contained, up only 13% from 2023.

在生產領域，UPB 的總收購和發起量為 1,160 億美元，比 2023 年增長 17%，這得益於直接貸款管道的發起量增長近 70%。生產部門的收入較 2023 年增長了 47%，儘管產品組合發生了很大變化，但支出仍在控制之中，僅比 2023 年增長了 13%。

Production segment pretax income in 2024 was $311 million, up from $116 million in 2023, including a significantly higher contribution in the third quarter when rates decline, highlighting our ability to rapidly address recapture opportunities and increase demand for refinances when mortgage rates decline.

2024 年生產部門的稅前收入為3.11 億美元，高於2023 年的1.16 億美元，其中第三季利率下降時的貢獻顯著增加，突顯了我們能夠在抵押貸款利率下降時迅速抓住重新獲得的機會並增加再融資需求的能力。

Our large servicing business provides ongoing revenue and cashflow contributions in this higher rate environment and continues to provide the foundation for our strong financial performance. The unpaid principal balance of our servicing portfolio increased 10% from the prior year end as production volumes more than offset runoff from prepayments.

我們龐大的服務業務在這種高利率環境下提供了持續的收入和現金流貢獻，並繼續為我們強勁的財務表現奠定了基礎。由於產量超過了預付款的流失，我們服務組合的未付本金餘額比上年末增加了 10%。

Servicing segment operating revenues were $1.5 billion, a 19% increase from the prior year, driven primarily by increased servicing fees and earnings on custodial balances due to growth in the owned portfolio. Operating expenses increased by only 3%, demonstrating the ability of our servicing workflows and technology to scale efficiently with our growth, while also providing our Servicing associates with the tools they need to best serve our customers.

服務部門營運收入為 15 億美元，比上年增長 19%，主要由於自有投資組合增長導致服務費和託管餘額收益增加。營運費用僅增加了 3%，證明了我們的服務工作流程和技術能夠隨著我們的成長而有效擴展，同時也為我們的服務員工提供了最佳服務客戶所需的工具。

In 2024, Servicing segment operating pre-tax income was $643 million, or 10.1 basis points of average servicing portfolio UPB, up from $535 million, or 9.3 basis points in 2023. In total, we delivered an operating return on equity of 17%; GAAP ROE was 9%; growth in book value per share was 6%; and we also increased our dividend to $0.30 cents per quarter, an increase of 50% from the previous dividend.

2024 年，服務部門的稅前營業收入為 6.43 億美元，佔平均服務組合 UPB 的 10.1 個基點，高於 2023 年的 5.35 億美元或 9.3 個基點。整體而言，我們實現了 17% 的營業股本回報率； GAAP ROE 為 9%；每股帳面價值成長6%；我們還將股息提高到每季 0.30 美分，比之前的股息增加了 50%。

These strong yearly results demonstrate our commitment to operational excellence and our focus on delivering sustainable earnings through varying interest rate cycles by leveraging our balanced business model.

這些強勁的年度業績證明了我們對卓越營運的承諾，以及我們利用平衡的業務模式，在不同的利率週期內實現可持續盈利的重點。

Turning to the origination market, current third-party estimates for total originations in 2025 average $2 trillion, reflecting growth in overall volume. Though mortgage rates are back up into the 7% range, we believe ongoing volatility in rates will present opportunities in the origination market from time to time.

談到發起市場，目前第三方估計2025年的總發起額平均為2兆美元，反映整體規模的成長。儘管抵押貸款利率已回升至 7% 左右，但我們認為，利率的持續波動將不時為發起市場帶來機會。

As you can see on slide 6, our balanced and diversified business model with leadership positions in both production and servicing enable strong financial performance and a foundation for continued growth as an industry-leading mortgage company across different interest rate environments.

正如您在幻燈片6 上看到的，我們均衡而多樣化的業務模式，在生產和服務方面均佔據領導地位，從而實現了強勁的財務業績，並為作為行業領先的抵押貸款公司在不同利率環境下的持續成長奠定了基礎。

We achieved the mid-teens operating ROE in quarters characterized by higher mortgage rates and a 20% operating ROE in the third quarter, when mortgage rates declined. Because we retained the servicing rights on our loan production and have been one of the largest producer of mortgage loans in recent periods, we are uniquely positioned with a large and growing portfolio of borrowers who recently entered into mortgages at higher rates and who stand to benefit from a refinance in the future when interest rates decline.

在抵押貸款利率較高的季度，我們的營業 ROE 達到了中等水平，而在抵押貸款利率下降的第三季度，我們的營業 ROE 達到了 20%。由於我們保留了貸款發放的服務權，並且是近年來最大的抵押貸款發放者之一，因此我們擁有獨特的優勢，擁有大量且不斷增長的借款人組合，這些借款人最近以更高的利率簽訂了抵押貸款，並將從中受益當利率下降時，未來將進行再融資。

On slide 7 of our earnings presentation, you can see that as of year end, $220 billion in unpaid principal balance or approximately one-third of the loans in our portfolio had a note rate above 5%. Approximately $100 billion were government loans, and approximately $120 billion will conventional and other loans.

在我們的收益報告的第 7 張幻燈片中，您可以看到，截至年底，未償還本金餘額為 2,200 億美元，或我們投資組合中約三分之一的貸款的票據利率超過 5%。其中約 1000 億美元為政府貸款，約 1200 億美元為常規貸款和其他貸款。

The potential opportunity for earnings growth is highlighted on this slide, as well as our historical refinance recapture rates, which have improved significantly from five years ago as a result of our ongoing technology enhancements and process improvements. We expect these recapture rates to continue improving given our multi-year investments, combined with the increased investment in our brand as use of targeted marketing strategies.

本投影片重點介紹了獲利成長的潛在機會以及我們的歷史再融資回收率。考慮到我們多年的投資，以及我們利用有針對性的行銷策略增加對品牌的投資，我們預計這些回收率將繼續提高。

As I briefly discussed, our large and growing servicing portfolio is a key asset, anchoring our core operational results in this higher interest rate environment and driving low-cost leads to our consumer direct division. Throughout our history, we have been focused on deploying new and emerging technologies to drive efficiencies and lower costs, as evidenced by the chart on the right side of slide 8, which highlights a decline in our per loan servicing expenses of more than 35% since 2019.

正如我簡要討論的那樣，我們龐大且不斷增長的服務組合是一項關鍵資產，它在高利率環境下支撐了我們的核心營運業績，並為我們的消費者直銷部門帶來了低成本的銷售線索。在我們的歷史上，我們一直專注於部署新興技術來提高效率和降低成本，第8 頁右側的圖表證明了這一點，該圖表突出顯示了自2017 年以來，我們的每筆貸款服務費用下降了35% 以上。

We have a platform in the mortgage industry that I believe is unmatched. And further, our best-in-class management team remains committed to unlocking additional efficiencies through continued investments in workflow and technologies.

我認為我們在抵押貸款行業擁有無與倫比的平台。此外，我們一流的管理團隊仍致力於透過持續投資工作流程和技術來提高效率。

It is for all of these reasons that I am confident in our ability to continue driving strong financial performance in this higher rate environment, bolstered by increases in the origination market in periods when mortgage rates decline. 2025 will be an exciting year for us.

由於所有這些原因，我相信我們有能力在這種高利率環境下繼續保持強勁的財務業績，並在抵押貸款利率下降期間透過發起市場的成長來推動。 2025年對我們來說將會是激動人心的一年。

I will now turn it over to Dan, who will review the drivers of PFSI's fourth-quarter financial performance.

現在我將把話題交給丹，他將回顧 PFSI 第四季財務表現的驅動因素。

Thank you, David. PFSI reported net income of $104 million in the fourth quarter, or $1.95 in earnings per share, for an annualized ROE of 11%. These results included $68 million of fair value declines on MSRs net of hedges and costs, and the impact of these items on diluted earnings per share was negative $0.93. PFSI's Board of Directors declared a fourth quarter common share dividend of $0.30 per share.

謝謝你，大衛。PFSI 報告第四季淨收入為 1.04 億美元，即每股收益 1.95 美元，年化 ROE 為 11%。這些結果包括扣除對沖和成本後的 MSR 公允價值下降 6,800 萬美元，這些項目對每股攤薄收益的影響為負 0.93 美元。 PFSI 董事會宣布第四季普通股股息為每股 0.30 美元。

Beginning with our production segment, pre-tax income was $78 million, down from $129 million in the prior quarter. Total acquisition and origination volumes were $36 billion in unpaid principal balance, up 13% from the prior quarter, as many loans originally locked in the third quarter were funded in the fourth quarter.

從我們的生產部門開始，稅前收入為 7,800 萬美元，低於上一季的 1.29 億美元。總收購和發起額為 360 億美元未償還本金餘額，較上一季度增長 13%，因為許多最初在第三季度鎖定的貸款在第四季度獲得了融資。

Total locked volumes were $36 billion in UPB, down 7% from the prior quarter due to higher mortgage rates. Of total acquisition and origination volumes, $32 billion was for PFSI's own account, and $4 billion was fee-based fulfillment activity for PMT.

UPB 的總鎖定量為 360 億美元，由於抵押貸款利率上升，較上一季下降 7%。在總收購和發起額中，有 320 億美元來自 PFSI 的自有帳戶，40 億美元來自 PMT 的收費履行活動。

PennyMac maintained its dominant position in correspondent lending in the fourth quarter, with total acquisitions of $28 billion, up from $26 billion in the prior quarter. Correspondent channel margins in the fourth quarter were 27 basis points, down from 33 basis points in the prior quarter.

PennyMac 在第四季度繼續保持代理貸款領域的主導地位，總收購額達 280 億美元，高於上一季的 260 億美元。第四季代理通路利潤率為27個基點，低於上一季的33個基點。

However, the revenue contribution was essentially unchanged as increased volumes offset the lower margins. Increased volume in the quarter was primarily due to PMT retaining 19% of total conventional correspondent production in the fourth quarter, a decline from 42% in the third quarter.

然而，由於銷量增加抵消了利潤率下降，收入貢獻基本上沒有變化。本季產量增加主要是由於 PMT 在第四季度保留了 19% 的常規對應總產量，較第三季的 42% 有所下降。

In the first quarter of 2025, we expect PMT to retain approximately 15% to 25% of total conventional correspondent production, consistent with the fourth quarter. Of note, pursuant to a renewed mortgage banking agreement with PMT, beginning in the third quarter of 2025, all correspondent loans will initially be acquired by PFSI. However, PMT will retain the right to purchase up to 100% of non-government correspondent loan production.

2025 年第一季度，我們預計 PMT 將保留約 15% 至 25% 的常規對應總產量，與第四季度一致。值得注意的是，根據與 PMT 續約的抵押貸款銀行協議，從 2025 年第三季開始，所有代理貸款將最初由 PFSI 收購。不過，PMT 將保留購買高達 100% 非政府代理貸款產量的權利。

In Broker Direct, we continue to see strong trends and continued growth in market share as we position PennyMac as a strong alternative to channel leaders. Originations in the channel were up 22% as many loans locked in the third quarter were funded in the fourth, while lock volume was down 17%, given the reversal in mortgage rates. The number of brokers approved to do business with us at year end was over 4,600, up 21% from the end of last year.

在 Broker Direct 中，我們繼續看到強勁的趨勢和市場份額的持續成長，因為我們將 PennyMac 定位為通路領導者的有力替代品。由於第三季鎖定的許多貸款在第四季度獲得了資金，該管道的貸款發放量增加了 22%，而由於抵押貸款利率的逆轉，鎖定量下降了 17%。截至年底，獲準與我們開展業務的經紀商數量超過 4,600 家，較上年年底增長 21%。

And we expect this number to continue growing as top brokers increasingly look for strength and diversification in their business partner. Broker channel margins were up slightly from the prior quarter, near normalized levels. Consumer Direct was similar, with originations up 40% from the third quarter and lock volumes down 30%.

隨著頂級經紀商越來越多地尋求其業務合作夥伴的實力和多樣化，我們預計這一數字將繼續增長。經紀通路利潤率較上一季略有上升，接近正常水準。消費者直銷的情況也類似，其發起量較第三季成長了 40%，而鎖定量下降了 30%。

Margins in the channel were up, given a higher mix of refinanced loans in the third quarter at lower margins. Activity in January was down due to higher mortgage rates and typical seasonality. Production expenses, net of loan origination expense, increased 12% from the prior quarter, due to higher funded volumes and increased capacity in the direct lending channels.

由於第三季再融資貸款組合較高且利潤率較低，因此該通路的利潤率有所上升。由於抵押貸款利率上升和典型的季節性因素，一月份的活動有所下降。生產費用（扣除貸款發放費用）較上一季增加了 12%，原因是融資量增加且直接貸款管道容量增加。

It is our preference to hold a level of excess origination capacity in the current market environment given our belief that volatility in interest and mortgage rates will provide pockets of opportunity from time to time and that we will need to be quick to react.

由於我們相信利率和抵押貸款利率的波動會不時帶來機會，而我們需要迅速做出反應，因此我們傾向於在當前市場環境下保持一定程度的過剩發放能力。

Turning to Servicing. The Servicing segment recorded pre-tax income of $87 million. Excluding valuation-related changes, pre-tax income was $168 million, or 10.3 basis points of average servicing portfolio UPB. Loan servicing fees were up from the prior quarter, primarily due to growth in PFSI's owned portfolio. And earnings on custodial balances and deposits and other income decreased due to lower short-term rates.

轉向服務。服務部門的稅前收入為 8,700 萬美元。不包括與估值相關的變化，稅前收入為 1.68 億美元，或平均服務組合 UPB 的 10.3 個基點。貸款服務費較上一季上漲，主要原因是 PFSI 自有投資組合的成長。由於短期利率下降，託管餘額和存款收益以及其他收入有所減少。

Custodial funds managed for PFSI's owned portfolio averaged $7.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up from $6.9 billion in the third quarter, primarily due to increased prepayments. Realization of MSR cash flows decreased $10 million from the prior quarter due to lower prepayment expectations as a result of higher mortgage rates.

第四季度，PFSI 自有投資組合管理的託管資金平均為 73 億美元，高於第三季的 69 億美元，這主要是由於預付款增加。由於抵押貸款利率上升導致預付款預期降低，MSR 現金流實現較上一季減少了 1,000 萬美元。

Operating expenses were down $2 million from the prior quarter at $81 million, or 5 basis points of average servicing portfolio UPB. The fair value of PFSI's MSR increased by $540 million, driven by higher market interest rates. Pension losses and costs were $608 million, more than offsetting MSR fair value gains.

營業費用較上一季下降 200 萬美元至 8,100 萬美元，或平均服務組合 UPB 的 5 個基點。受市場利率上升推動，PFSI 的 MSR 公允價值增加了 5.4 億美元。退休金損失和成本為 6.08 億美元，超過了 MSR 公允價值收益。

As David mentioned, results from our Investment Management business are now included within corporate and other. Corporate and other items contributed a pre-tax loss of $36 million, compared to $39 million in the prior quarter. PFSI recorded a provision for a tax expense of $25 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of 19.2%.

正如大衛所提到的，我們的投資管理業務的表現現在已納入企業和其他業務範圍內。公司和其他項目造成稅前虧損 3,600 萬美元，而上一季為 3,900 萬美元。PFSI 記錄了 2500 萬美元的稅費準備金，導致有效稅率為 19.2%。

The reduction in the effective tax rate from the prior quarter was primarily due to a decline in the provision rate from 26.85% to 26.7% and the resulting repricing of expected taxes on deferred income. We ended the quarter with $3.3 billion of total liquidity, which includes cash and amounts available to draw on facilities where we have collateral pledged.

有效稅率較上一季下降主要由於撥備率從26.85%下降至26.7%，以及由此導致的遞延收入預期稅項的重新定價。截至本季末，我們的總流動資金為 33 億美元，其中包括現金和可供我們抵押的設施使用的金額。

We'll now open it up for questions. Operator?

我們現在開始回答問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would like to remind everyone we will only take questions related to PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., or PFSI. (Operator Instructions) Doug Harter, UBS.

（操作員指示）謝謝。我想提醒大家，我們只會回答與 PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. 或 PFSI 相關的問題。(操作員指示) Doug Harter，瑞銀。

I'll go into a little bit more about the hedge performance this quarter, what drove the larger hedge loss. And I know in past quarters you had talked about changing the hedge strategy, the cost of it, and just give us an update on the strategy there.

我將更詳細地介紹本季的對沖表現，以及導致對沖損失擴大的原因。我知道在過去的幾個季度中，您曾談到改變對沖策略及其成本，請向我們介紹該策略的最新情況。

Sure. Sorry you cut a little bit, Doug, so I'm going to answer each of the questions that I heard and if there's some piece that I didn't answer, just let me know afterwards. In terms of the performance of the hedge in the fourth quarter, actually the overall hedge performs more or less in line with how we expected in terms of our insulation from changes in market rates.

當然。很抱歉你刪減了一點內容，道格，所以我會回答我聽到的每一個問題，如果有些部分我沒有回答，請在之後告訴我。就第四季的對沖表現而言，實際上整體對沖的表現與我們在抵禦市場利率變化方面的預期大致一致。

One change that we did have during the quarter is that as interest rates increased significantly, when rates were at lower levels we had discussed, we were attempting to hedge in the 80% to 90% area as we moved up to higher rates where again in near term rallies, there's not as much of an impact to production. We moved that hedge ratio back towards 90% to 100% as rates increased and that's where we started the quarter and how we're currently -- what we're currently targeting today.

我們在本季度確實遇到的一個變化是，隨著利率大幅上升，當利率處於我們討論過的較低水平時，我們試圖在80% 到90% 的範圍內進行對沖，然後我們再一次轉向更高的利率。隨著利率上升，我們將對沖比率調回到 90％ 到 100％，這就是我們本季開始時的水平，也是我們目前的目標。

What we did see impact the net hedge results during the quarter that departed from that 90% to 100% hedge ratio, we did see hedge costs since we do utilize options and the curve was still flat inverted for a lot of the -- or for part of the quarter.

我們確實看到本季度淨對沖結果偏離了 90% 至 100% 的對沖比率，我們確實看到了對沖成本，因為我們確實利用了期權，而且曲線在很多時候仍然是平緩倒置的——或者本季度的一部分。

And then we did see some excess prepayments. We mentioned the prepayment fees were a bit higher in the fourth quarter due to the impact of rates being lower in the third quarter. Although that was baked into our model, the speeds were a bit in excess of what we had projected.

然後我們確實看到了一些超額預付款。我們提到，由於第三季利率較低的影響，第四季的預付費用略高。儘管這已融入我們的模型中，但速度還是略微超過了我們的預期。

And for us that flows through into our changes in fair value. And so that had a little bit of a negative -- or a bit of a negative impact in the quarter as well. And so those components together account for most of the negative contribution on the hedge during the quarter.

對我們來說，這會影響到我們公允價值的變動。所以這對本季產生了一些負面影響。因此，這些因素共同構成了本季對沖的大部分負面貢獻。

As we're going into the first quarter, we've seen the hedge perform fairly well thus far. As I mentioned, we're hedging more in the 90% to 100% range currently given where we're sitting in the interest rate environment and the amount of production that we would see in just a in a near term rally or in a close rally where we're not rallying very significantly.

進入第一季度，我們看到對沖迄今為止的表現相當良好。正如我所提到的，考慮到目前的利率環境和短期反彈或收盤時產量，我們目前的對沖範圍在 90% 到 100% 之間。

Great. Appreciate that, Dan.

偉大的。非常感謝，丹。

Michael Kaye, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥可凱耶。

Hi. I have a quick question on the 2025 ROE guidance. It looks like you downgraded it from prior. Now what kind of rate environment do you contemplate in that revised ROE guidance? Is that current rates on the low end or is it some improvement you just flushed that out a little bit?

你好。我對 2025 年 ROE 指引有一個簡單的問題。看起來您已將其級別從之前降低了。那麼，在修訂後的 ROE 指引中，您考慮了什麼樣的利率環境？目前的利率是否處於低位，還是說您稍加改進就得到了這樣的結果？

Yeah, that's really more or less assuming a rate environment that's pretty similar to where we are today. So we aren't really forecasting a significant decline in interest rates given with that mid-teens to high-teens operating ROE guidance. And so given what we're seeing and the production environment that we think is likely in that case and especially the refinance environment that's likely in that case that, as you mentioned, brings the operating ROE expectations from what we had communicated a quarter ago.

是的，這或多或少假設利率環境與我們今天的利率環境非常相似。因此，考慮到中高水準的營運 ROE 指引，我們實際上並沒有預測利率會大幅下降。因此，考慮到我們所看到的情況以及我們認為在這種情況下可能出現的生產環境，尤其是在這種情況下可能出現的再融資環境，正如您所提到的，這將帶來我們一個季度前傳達的經營ROE 預期。

To the extent that we do see a meaningful rally or pockets of meaningful rallies from here, that would allow those operating ROEs to get back up into the 20s like we saw in Q3 or higher if there's a more sustained rally. But that operating ROE projection was really more contemplating the rates at levels that we're currently at.

如果我們確實看到有意義的反彈或一些有意義的反彈，這將使那些運營ROE 回到20 多一點的水平，就像我們在第三季度看到的那樣，如果出現更持續的反彈，甚至會更高。但營業 ROE 預測實際上更多地考慮了我們目前的利率水準。

Okay. A question on what's the impact to the PennyMac if the GSE acts as a conservatorship and just wondering how PennyMac is preparing for that potential? And maybe you could talk about how the benefit of having PMT benefits PFSI in that scenario?

好的。問題是，如果 GSE 充當託管人，會對 PennyMac 產生什麼影響？也許您可以談論一下在這種情況下 PMT 為 PFSI 帶來什麼好處？

Well, you answered the question, Michael, so thank you. But let me take it from the top here. How are you doing?

好吧，邁克爾，你回答了這個問題，所以謝謝你。但請讓我從這裡開始講。你好嗎？

Good.

好的。

Good, good. So look, we, from day one, have managed this company to a range of outcomes. And I think in a period of time when the GSEs were 90%-plus of the market, we are leading mortgage -- residential mortgage lender and producer of mortgages and servicer.

好，好。所以，從第一天起，我們就管理這家公司並取得了一系列的成果。我認為，在政府支援企業佔據 90% 以上市場份額的時期，我們是領先的抵押貸款機構——住宅抵押貸款機構以及抵押貸款生產商和服務商。

And if the GSEs begin to retrace that, which we're starting to see parts of it, we're going to continue to operate better than anyone in the industry. I think that we, as you pointed out, we're uniquely positioned with PMT to have an investment vehicle to invest in credit-related investments.

如果政府支持企業 (GSE) 開始回溯這一點（我們已經開始看到其中的部分），我們將繼續比業內任何人都更好地運作。我認為，正如您所指出的，PMT 為我們提供了獨特的優勢，讓我們能夠擁有投資工具來投資信貸相關的投資。

And I think in the -- in Q4, we had two securitizations of investor loan and second home loans that execute better in the private markets than they do delivering to the GSEs. We closed our first deal for 2025 today.

我認為在第四季度，我們有兩種投資者貸款和第二套房屋貸款的證券化，它們在私人市場上的表現比向政府支持企業交付的表現要好。我們今天完成了 2025 年的第一筆交易。

We're on track to do a deal a month, which represents about 50% of that production with the remaining production going whole-loan, to whole-loan buyers like insurance companies.

我們每月都能完成一筆交易，這佔總產量的 50% 左右，剩餘的產量將以全額貸款的形式發放給保險公司等全額貸款買家。

What's important there is you can begin to see how we think about distribution as the GSE footprint gets reduced. And look, guarantee fees, if you listen to some people, they say they're going to go up with the new administration. But if guarantee fees were to go up, the ability to access all outlets in the market is a trademark of my career in this company. And so we'll continue to find whole-loan investors. We'll continue to do securitizations in PMT.

重要的是，隨著 GSE 足跡的減少，您可以開始了解我們如何考慮分銷。你看，擔保費，如果你聽一些人說，他們說新政府上台後擔保費將會上漲。但如果擔保費上漲的話，進入市場上所有據點的能力就是我在這家公司職涯的標誌。因此，我們會繼續尋找全額貸款投資者。我們將繼續在PMT進行證券化。

And PMT is going to thrive in that opportunity. PMT is expanding the loans that they're looking to do securitizations. There's opportunities in Jumbo. There's opportunities less so in closed-end seconds. But I will tell you that I think that PMT is going to – PMT had a great quarter in the fourth quarter. It's gone up to a really nice start in the first quarter. And that's something that we're going to leverage if we see the GSE retracement take place.

PMT 將在這一機遇中蓬勃發展。PMT 正在擴大其尋求證券化的貸款。Jumbo 中存在著機會。在封閉式第二輪中，機會就更少了。但我會告訴你，我認為 PMT 在第四季將會表現出色。第一季的開局非常好。如果我們看到 GSE 出現回撤，我們就會利用這一點。

In addition, what's interesting about the Q4 results, and we're seeing it in January it's strong, is the amount of Jumbo volume we're doing. In the fourth quarter, we did almost $1 billion of Jumbo production across all three channels. We are on pace to do more than that in the first quarter.

此外，第四季業績的有趣之處在於，我們在 1 月看到它的強勁表現，即我們處理的巨量業務量。第四季度，我們在三個管道完成了近 10 億美元的巨幅影片製作。我們預計在第一季完成更多目標。

And there we're, as I mentioned, we're looking to do a securitization in PMT in the first half of this year. But again, we're accessing the markets there as well -- the Holo markets there as well.

正如我所提到的，我們希望在今年上半年對 PMT 進行證券化。但同樣，我們也正在進入那裡的市場——那裡的 Holo 市場。

And then on the Consumer Direct side we had a really nice quarter in terms of closed-end second production in the fourth quarter. And that kind of, again, plays into our ability to distribute loans away from the agency. And we're building a great operation to access pools of capital, to be able to put on trades, to be able to settle trades.

在消費者直銷方面，我們在第四季的封閉式第二次生產方面取得了非常好的成績。這又一次影響了我們向機構發放貸款的能力。我們正在建立一個龐大的營運體系，以便能夠進入資金池，能夠進行交易，能夠結算交易。

And so, if we see in a marketplace where loans move away from the agencies, we're going to continue to be the leader in the industry in being able to maximize the economics. And that really, when you look at, when I look at our organizations between PFSI and PMT, that's the differentiator is our expertise to be able to price and execute and find best execution for our customers, our correspondents, and our brokers.

因此，如果我們看到市場上的貸款不再由機構提供，我們將繼續保持行業領先地位，以實現經濟效益最大化。事實上，當我查看 PFSI 和 PMT 之間的組織時，就會發現差異在於我們的專業知識，能夠為我們的客戶、我們的代理商和我們的經紀人定價和執行並找到最佳執行。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Hey. Thank you. Good evening. I just had a follow up on the operating ROE range for 2025 of mid to high teens. I guess your exit rate for this year is already in the mid-teens. I'm just curious, what do you need to see to get to the high teens? Do you need to see many rate rallies or do you think you can continue to grind higher on the ROE scale even if rates stay where they are right now?

嘿。謝謝。晚安.我剛剛對 2025 年的營運 ROE 範圍進行了追蹤調查，結果顯示該範圍將處於中高水準。我估計你今年的退學率已經達到十五六了。我只是好奇，你需要看到什麼才能達到十幾歲的水平？您是否需要看到多次利率上漲，或者您認為即使利率保持在當前水平，ROE 水平仍可以繼續走高？

I think, yeah, thanks, Terry. That's a great question. So as we see -- or if we see rates continue to stay at this high level, we do expect to continue to drift upwards in terms of operating ROE. I think the key aspect there is our efficiencies that we've gained over time in the servicing space and servicing portfolio.

我想，是的，謝謝，特里。這是一個很好的問題。因此，正如我們所看到的 - 或者如果我們看到利率繼續保持在這個高水平，我們確實預計經營 ROE 將繼續上升。我認為關鍵在於我們在服務領域和服務組合中隨著時間的推移而獲得的效率。

So we have a page in the deck that shows our decrease in operating expenses over time with respect to our servicing portfolio that's gone down by 30% over the past few years since 2019. We expect to be able to continue to drive that down on a per unit basis, both as a function of scale as well as continuing to make our operations more efficient. And so on that basis, we would generally expect our -- even if we stay in the current environment, our operating ROE to drift upwards.

因此，我們有一頁顯示，我們的服務組合的營運費用隨時間下降，自 2019 年以來，過去幾年下降了 30％。我們期望能夠繼續按單位降低這一成本，這既作為規模的功能，也是為了繼續提高我們的營運效率。基於此，我們通常會預期，即使我們維持當前環境，我們的經營性股本報酬率也會上升。

And so the mid to high teens I think to your point, depending on what you consider mid and high, we would generally expect to be drifting upwards towards the high teams over the year if we stay up in this rate level, if we stay up in this rate environment where we're gaining further efficiencies as we go through the year.

因此，我認為，正如您所說，中高水平的增長率取決於您對中高水平的認識，如果我們保持在這個增長率水平，我們通常預計，今年增長率將上升至高水平。下，我們一年來的效率不斷提高。

Terry, a couple of things about 2024 that's really, I think, highlights the power of the company is that you look at the Q3 results and we had that brief rally and you can see how quickly the ROE can climb to 20% and even higher if a rally's protracted.

特里，我認為，2024 年有幾件事真正凸顯了公司的實力，那就是你看看第三季度的業績，我們經歷了短暫的反彈，你可以看到ROE 可以多快攀升至20% 甚至更高如果反彈持續下去。

And then similarly, to speak about the operating scale, historically when you've had rallies, you recognize the lock when it's -- you recognize the gain in the lock when you take it, but a lot of the expenses hit when you closed the loan.

同樣，談到營運規模，從歷史上看，當你經歷反彈時，你會在鎖定時認識到它——當你鎖定時，你會認識到鎖定的收益，但當你關閉時，很多費用都會受到影響。

And so in Q4, we were closing out loans from the pipeline, and we still had a relatively very good ROE. And so I think that there's -- it speaks to the leverage that we have in our Production channels. And I think as you continue to see growth in the non-agency products, combined with the continued efficiencies that our Production teammates continue to isolate and perfect, it's a lot of it is in our control.

因此，在第四季度，我們正在結清貸款，我們的 ROE 仍然相對較好。所以我認為這說明了我們在生產通路中擁有的優勢。我認為，隨著您繼續看到非代理產品的成長，再加上我們的生產隊友繼續隔離和完善的持續效率，很多事情都在我們的控制範圍內。

And then you take the piece that's not in control, and that's the market. And we know one thing for sure, rates go up and rates come down. And so our ability to be able to seize on that opportunity is vitally important. And that's one of the reasons why we've brought in some excess capacity in our Consumer Direct channel.

然後再取那些不受控制的部分，那就是市場。我們可以肯定一件事，利率有升有降。因此，我們能否抓住這個機會至關重要。這就是我們在消費者直銷通路中引入一些過剩產能的原因之一。

And so we have about an additional 100 LOs at the moment that are really focused on, at the moment, working for our customers who want cash out refinances or closed-end seconds or are looking to buy new homes. But likewise, as rates decline, we can pivot those LOs to focus on rate and term refi.

因此，我們目前有大約 100 名額外的 LO，他們目前真正專注於為需要現金再融資或封閉式二次融資或希望購買新房的客戶服務。但同樣，隨著利率下降，我們可以調整這些 LO，以專注於利率和期限再融資。

And historically when markets move, originators go out and they try to find additional capacity. But we're in a position because of the strength of the organization to be able to maintain that capacity and be able to do so while having products that they can offer our customer base.

從歷史上看，當市場發生變化時，發起者就會出去嘗試尋找額外的產能。但由於組織實力雄厚，我們有能力維持這種產能，並且能夠同時為我們的客戶群提供產品。

Got it. That's very helpful color. And then just to follow up, any color you can provide on what you're seeing? with respect to just delinquencies in your portfolio, it's 60-plus day delinquency rate, increased sequentially, but there are also the year-over-year increase also accelerated in the quarter. Thank you.

知道了。這是非常有用的顏色。然後只是為了跟進，您可以提供您所看到的任何顏色嗎？就您投資組合中的拖欠情況而言，60 天以上的拖欠率比上一季有所增加，但本季的年增率也有所加速。謝謝。

Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen, please stand by as it appears that the presenters got disconnected. One moment, please.

抱歉，女士們、先生們，請稍等，因為看起來主持人的電話斷線了。請稍等。

Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen. Please continue to stand by. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，對不起。請繼續等候。謝謝。

Hello?

你好？

Speaker has reconnected. You may proceed.

揚聲器已重新連接。您可以繼續。

Thank you. Sorry about that, folks. We got disconnected here. And I believe the question was about delinquencies?

謝謝。對此，我們深感抱歉，各位。我們這裡斷線了。我認為問題是關於拖欠款項？

Yes, it was.

是的。

Okay. Sorry about that. So look, I think that delinquencies continue to stay at low levels. We're seeing, as you can see on slide 26, that they have gone up a little bit. Much of that is seasonality. And you saw that a little bit at the end of '23, where we saw the delinquency numbers go up so slightly. And we expect those to return to more normalized levels in Q1 and Q2 as tax refunds come in and people get themselves current.

好的。很抱歉。所以我認為，違約率將繼續保持在較低水平。正如您在第 26 張幻燈片上看到的，我們看到它們有所上升。其中很大一部分是季節性的。您在 23 年底看到了這一點，我們發現犯罪率略有上升。我們預計，隨著退稅的到位和人們的稅收負擔的減輕，這些水平將在第一季和第二季度恢復到更正常的水平。

I will tell you that we are very well positioned in the event that delinquency rates do show a spike. And a lot of that speaks to our expertise in servicing delinquent loans. There are a lot of forbearance programs out by FHA, VA, USDA, and the two GSEs. There's a program offered by the VA to buy delinquent modified loans called the VASP program that we talked about in the past.

我可以告訴你們，如果違約率真的出現飆升，我們將處於非常有利的位置。這在很大程度上證明了我們在處理拖欠貸款方面的專業知識。聯邦住房管理局 (FHA)、退伍軍人事務部 (VA)、美國農業部 (USDA) 和兩家政府支持企業 (GSE) 推出了多項寬容計畫。我們過去討論過 VASP 計劃，該計劃由 VASP 提供，用於購買拖欠的修改貸款。

And last quarter, we sold $800 million of unpaid principal balance of modified once delinquent VA loans back to the VA that had a negative servicing mark of a little over $11 million. And we're well over 50% of the participant in that program. And that just speaks to not only our expertise as a servicer, but also our servicing technology and the ability to quickly adopt and adapt to any program that's out in the marketplace.

上個季度，我們將價值 8 億美元的修改後的曾經拖欠的 VA 貸款未支付本金餘額賣回給了 VA，這些貸款的負服務標記略高於 1100 萬美元。我們的參與人數已遠遠超過該計劃的 50%。這不僅說明了我們作為服務商的專業知識，也說明了我們的服務技術以及快速採用和適應市場上任何計劃的能力。

And so, I'm looking at this number on a monthly basis, mindful of what's happened in the past. But generally speaking, I take comfort in the fact that we're in a marketplace right now where over 50% of the loans are still below 5%. You still have housing constraints in the marketplace, demand is still up. And I generally think that we're still in a good market for borrowers who want or need to sell their home.

因此，我每個月都會查看這個數字，留意過去發生的情況。但總體而言，讓我感到欣慰的是，目前我們處於一個市場中，超過 50% 的貸款利率仍然低於 5%。市場上仍存在住房限制，需求仍上升。總體而言，我認為對於想要或需要出售房屋的借款人來說，我們的市場仍然很好。

But having said that, in managing the balanced business model and managing to a range of outcomes, what we do on production, we also do on servicing. So we're looking at all the possible outcomes and make sure that we're ready to react to anything that we see take place in the market.

但話雖如此，在管理平衡的商業模式和管理一系列結果時，我們在生產上所做的工作，我們也在服務上所做的工作。因此，我們正在研究所有可能的結果，並確保我們已準備好對市場上發生的任何事情做出反應。

Crispin Logwood, Piper Sandler.

克里斯賓·洛格伍德，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you. Good afternoon. I appreciate you taking my questions. First, just on origination and channels, most of your origination channels were down in the quarter, which makes sense. But I saw that conventional correspondent locks were actually up nicely in the quarter. Can you discuss how you're able to do that in this type of environment? And if so, how do you manage how you're able to do that in this type of environment and what you're up at?

謝謝。午安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，僅從發起和管道來看，本季大部分發起管道都出現了下滑，這是有道理的。但我發現本季傳統的代理鎖實際上表現良好。您能討論一下在這種環境下您是如何做到這一點的嗎？如果是的話，您如何在這樣的環境下做到這一點，以及您正在做什麼？

Sure. So I mean, one thing to note about correspondent generally is that it typically lags a bit from the, our correspondent locks will typically lag a bit from the environment that we see, that we see presently. Since the correspondent locks that we take are generally after the -- or a large portion of them is after the correspondent themselves has locked the loan and closed the loan.

當然。所以我的意思是，通常要注意的一件事是，它通常會比我們目前看到的環境稍微滯後一些，我們的通訊鎖通常會比我們目前看到的環境稍微滯後一些。由於我們採取的代理鎖定通常是在代理機構自己鎖定貸款並結清貸款之後——或者很大一部分是在代理機構自己鎖定貸款並結清貸款之後。

So take that 60 to 90 days from whatever the interest rate was. And so, as we moved into the fourth quarter, we saw additional -- a lot of the volume from rates being lower in the third quarter flow through into the fourth quarter in terms of locks in correspondent, in our direct channels, those have been locks really in the third quarter. And so, that drove some of that increased lock activity in the fourth quarter.

因此，從利率水準來看，需要 60 到 90 天的時間。因此，隨著我們進入第四季度，我們看到了額外的——第三季度利率降低帶來的大量交易流入了第四季度，就我們的直接管道中的鎖定而言，這些鎖定已經第三季度真正鎖定。因此，這推動了第四季度鎖定活動的部分增加。

In addition to that, as David mentioned, we've also been pretty active in terms of our sourcing of investor loans, which fall into that conventional correspondent, or a lot of that falls into that conventional correspondent camp. And so, that has also been a place where we have been increasingly active and helped drive some of that lock share in conventional correspondent in the fourth quarter.

除此之外，正如大衛所提到的，我們在尋找投資者貸款方面也相當積極，這些貸款屬於傳統代理行，或者說很多都屬於傳統代理行陣營。因此，這也是我們日益活躍的領域，並在第四季度幫助推動了傳統通訊員的部分鎖定份額。

Great. Thank you. I appreciate that. And then just one last one, can you just discuss your outlook for the level of mortgage rates and then what makes you think that you could see volatility in the near to intermediate term that could present opportunities for originations and refi, as you discussed, or is it more just a possibility of rates rallying and being ready, like you've added capacity that we may see something similar to the third quarter?

偉大的。謝謝。我很感激。最後一個問題，您能否談談對抵押貸款利率水準的展望？有可能是利率回升並做好準備，例如您已經增加了容量，我們可能會看到與第三季類似的情況？

Look, right now, we're in unprecedented territory in terms of volatility. I mean, just the daily movements that you see in rates is pretty extreme from what I've seen throughout my career. And so, it really validates why it's vitally important to manage to a range of outcomes. And so, if rates were to go higher, having our servicing portfolio is vitally important.

看，現在我們正處於前所未有的波動之中。我的意思是，從我整個職業生涯所見，利率的每日變動都是相當極端的。所以，它確實驗證了為什麼管理一系列結果至關重要。因此，如果利率上升，我們的服務組合就至關重要。

Again, being a leading correspondent aggregator to continue to buy loans during periods of higher rates feeds the flywheel that we have in our consumer direct channel. And likewise, regardless of where rates go, people are always going to be buying homes and there's always going to be a market for loan originations. And so, in markets like that, being a well-capitalized enterprise with a great reputation only benefits us.

再次，作為一家領先的代理商聚合商，在利率較高時期繼續購買貸款，為我們的消費者直銷管道提供了飛輪動力。同樣，無論利率如何變化，人們總是會購買房屋，並且總是會存在貸款市場。因此，在這樣的市場中，成為資本雄厚、聲譽良好的企業對我們只有好處。

And if rates were to go higher, you're going to continue to see consolidation take place in the industry. Likewise, in periods of time when rates do decline, the ability to offer refinances and be able to seize on the opportunity really is beneficial to us as a servicer, but also as an originator. And that's what you saw in the third quarter.

如果利率上升，你將繼續看到產業整合。同樣，在利率下降的時期，提供再融資並抓住機會的能力確實對我們作為服務商和發起人都是有利的。這就是您在第三季看到的情況。

And so, as you see more consolidation taking place in the industry, as an originator, that benefits those who are left originating because that just takes out capacity, which typically leads to higher margins in periods when rates do decline. And so, by and large, I think to your point, it's really having a view of how you're going to operate in different rate environments and being prepared to do so in a very nimble fashion, which is how this organization is set up to operate.

因此，當您看到行業中發生更多整合時，作為發起人，這將使那些留下的發起人受益，因為這只會佔用容量，這通常會在利率下降期間帶來更高的利潤率。所以，總的來說，我認為你的觀點是，這實際上是對如何在不同的利率環境中運作有一個看法，並準備以一種非常靈活的方式去做，這就是這個組織的設立方式操作。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries)。

Yeah, thanks. I wanted to drill down a little bit more on what gives you confidence and continuing to drive down that average cost of service to get you to that higher team's ROE. The rate of change has obviously been flowing in recent years. Are you expecting or still generating new ways to drive efficiency through your proprietary servicing platform or just benefiting from getting a lot more scale off that without having to add cost? Just what gives you the confidence there?

是的，謝謝。我想更深入地探討什麼能給你信心，並繼續降低平均服務成本，讓你獲得更高的團隊 ROE。近年來，變化的速度顯然一直在加快。您是否期望或仍在創造新方法，透過您的專有服務平台來提高效率，或只是從中獲得更大的規模而不需要增加成本？是什麼讓您有信心呢？

It's a little bit of both, right? So as we're continuing to grow the servicing portfolio, we're continuing to get economies of scale. If you look at the overall operating expenses in our servicing segment, have been roughly flat over the last few quarters. And so, as we just continue to add servicing, we're getting the benefits of scale there.

兩者都有一點，對吧？因此，隨著我們不斷擴大服務組合，我們也將繼續獲得規模經濟。如果你看一下我們服務部門的整體營運費用，你會發現過去幾季的費用大致持平。因此，隨著我們不斷增加服務，我們將獲得規模效益。

In addition to that, there are aspects of our servicing operation that we believe can continue where we can continue to have process improvements and automation that can further drive down our unit costs. In particular, things related to delinquent loans, we believe that there's opportunity for significant or for continued savings or additional savings with respect to automation and process improvements that haven't been fully addressed in our development plan thus far, our process enhancement plan thus far.

除此之外，我們相信我們的服務業務的某些方面可以繼續進行，我們可以繼續進行流程改進和自動化，從而進一步降低我們的單位成本。特別是與拖欠貸款有關的事情，我們認為有機會在自動化和流程改進方面實現顯著或持續的節省或額外的節省，而這些節省尚未在我們的開發計劃中得到充分解決，我們的流程增強計劃迄今為止。

And so, looking at both of those aspects, that gives us confidence that we can continue to drive down that per unit cost even as we go forward. And certainly, you can see that although we've had slower progress in more recent periods, there still is continued progress in terms of ratcheting down those costs.

因此，從這兩個方面來看，我們有信心在未來繼續降低單位成本。當然，您可以看到，儘管我們最近一段時間的進展較慢，但在降低成本方面我們仍在繼續取得進展。

Well, yeah, look, I think that group is hyperfocused on really driving down the costs. And having our technology to do so just allows us to implement it faster, quicker, and smarter. I think that I know that we are going to be introducing a chatbot in the call center and servicing as well as the call center for consumer direct, for that matter, in the not too distant future. We're looking to continue to enhance workflows and to move and to move initiatives offshore.

嗯，是的，我認為該組織高度重視降低成本。我們的技術可以讓我們更快、更迅速、更聰明地實現這一目標。我認為，在不久的將來，我們將在呼叫中心和服務以及消費者直接呼叫中心引入聊天機器人。我們希望繼續加強工作流程並將計劃轉移到海外。

And so, I think that you're going to continue to see that cost come down. And look, yes, of course, some of it has to do with just the increased scoring portfolio and the scale that comes with it. But we have not we wouldn't be where we are today if it weren't for the technology and the team that we have in place. And it's going to continue to decline. I know that.

因此，我認為你將會繼續看到成本下降。是的，當然，其中一些只是與增加的評分組合以及隨之而來的規模有關。但如果沒有我們現有的技術和團隊，我們就不會有今天的成就。而且還會繼續下降。我知道。

Okay, great. That's really helpful. Dan, just one more question for you. Are there any accounting issues that we need to think about as you make that transition you mentioned in 3Q to at least initially retaining all of the conventional originations?

好的，太好了。這真的很有幫助。丹，我再問你一個問題。當您在第三季中提到進行轉變，至少在最初保留所有傳統起源時，是否需要考慮任何會計問題？

No accounting issues per se. It would be, if you look at it, just slightly, a slight increase in inventory compared to other points in time or to preceding quarters as we move forward, if all else were being equal. Although those loans are only expected to stay.

本質上沒有會計問題。如果你看一下，你會發現，與其他時間點或前幾季相比，庫存只是略有增加，前提是其他所有條件都相同。儘管這些貸款預計只會保留下來。

The loans that would be going to PMT, assuming PMT retains the same amount of conventional loans that it otherwise would have been, will really only sit on PFSI's books for one to two days on average. So really, the impact would probably be dominated by the fluctuations other fluctuations in the market and so forth.

假設 PMT 保留與原來相同金額的常規貸款，那麼這些流向 PMT 的貸款實際上只會在 PFSI 的帳簿上停留平均一到兩天。因此，實際上，其影響可能主要受市場波動等因素的影響。

So we don't expect any significant accounting changes. We still, as the contract stipulates, will charge a fulfillment fee. PFSI will charge a fulfillment fee to PMT for the loans that it, for the loans that will be passed through to PMT, or through PFSI to PMT and their, the correspondent loans that they will elect to, elect to receive.

因此我們預計不會有任何重大的會計變更。我們仍將依合約規定收取履行費。PFSI 將向 PMT 收取履行費，用於其轉給 PMT 的貸款，或透過 PFSI 轉給 PMT 的貸款，以及他們選擇接收的對應貸款。

And the gain on sales structure for PMT should remain the same because the economic terms at which they'll be acquiring the loans will be substantially the same as to what they were receiving previously. So yeah, don't expect any meaningful accounting differences or changes versus what you see today.

PMT 的銷售收益結構應該保持不變，因為他們獲得貸款的經濟條款與先前獲得的貸款基本相同。所以，是的，不要期待與今天所見相比有任何有意義的會計差異或變化。

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

好的。知道了。謝謝。

Ryan Shelley, Bank of America.

美國銀行的瑞安‧雪萊 (Ryan Shelley)。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I have two quick ones. So first, on revenue margin, was the decrease in the quarter just attributed to makeshift, or were you guys seeing anything else? And then I'll just drop the second one and let you guys answer. Just how are you thinking about the unsecured maturity coming up this October? Thank you.

嘿，大家好。感謝您回答這個問題。我有兩個簡短的。那麼首先，就收入利潤率而言，本季的下降是否僅僅歸因於臨時措施，還是你們看到了其他什麼原因？然後我就放棄第二個問題並讓你們回答。您對今年 10 月即將到期的無擔保債券有什麼看法？謝謝。

Sure. So yeah, with respect to the revenue margin and the production channel, we did see a lot of the change in the overall the overall revenue margin is due, as you mentioned, to the makeshift. You can see that the overall correspondent locks remained pretty similar quarter over quarter. If you include the PMT, or especially if you're looking at just the production before PMT, there's a significant shift towards correspondent given the change in overall percentage that PMT retained during the quarter.

當然。是的，就收入利潤率和生產管道而言，我們確實看到整體收入利潤率發生了許多變化，正如您所說，這是由於臨時措施造成的。您可以看到，整體對應鎖定量每季都保持相當相似。如果您包括 PMT，或者特別是如果您只查看 PMT 之前的生產，那麼考慮到 PMT 在本季度保留的總體百分比的變化，就會出現向通訊員的顯著轉變。

And so, that was the major driver. The other while the locks and the direct channels with higher margins declined, the other driver is that there was also a reduction if you look at the correspondent line in terms of the margin on the correspondent loans. So that was a combination both of competitiveness in the channel in the fourth quarter, as well as really the mix within correspondent where a greater proportion of the locks that were going in were conventional, which tends to be a little bit lower margin than the government loans.

所以，這就是主要的驅動因素。另一方面，雖然利潤率較高的鎖定和直接管道有所下降，但另一個驅動因素是，如果從代理行的角度來看，代理貸款的利潤率也有所下降。因此，這是第四季度通路競爭力和通訊員內部組合的結合，其中大部分鎖都是傳統的，這往往比政府的利潤率略低貸款。

Look, the other thing about let's say Q4 is that we, of course, December is usually typically a slower month all the way around. The makeshift was a big component, obviously quarter over quarter. But as we go, as we look at January, we're really seeing things back to a more normalized level in the three divisions.

你看，關於第四季度的另一件事是，當然，12 月通常是一個較為緩慢的月份。臨時措施是一個重要組成部分，顯然與上一季相比有所改善。但隨著時間的流逝，當我們回顧一月份時，我們確實看到三個部門的情況恢復到了更正常的水平。

And January has been a really exciting month for us. I like we, as you can see in the earnings presentation that we had great share growth in broker direct, and we're continuing to see some really good headwinds in broker. In correspondent, we're seeing there was some irrational pricing earlier in much of the first, six to nine months of 2024 that we began to see that relieved itself a little bit.

一月對我們來說真是令人興奮的一個月。我喜歡我們，正如你在收益報告中看到的那樣，我們在經紀直銷方面的份額有很大的增長，而且我們繼續看到經紀方面有一些非常好的逆風。事實上，我們發現，在 2024 年的前六到九個月的大部分時間裡，存在一些不合理的定價，但後來我們開始看到這種定價現像有所緩解。

And we're continuing to see that as we start the quarter here, my sense is we're getting some share benefit there. And then in the consumer direct channel obviously, having the close 10 seconds, we're seeing more production there as well. And so, I think it's, for the month of January, it's been an active month here. Unlike December, where we just felt, it just felt to me much more as though we were in holiday mode for most of the month.

而且我們繼續看到，隨著本季的開始，我的感覺是我們在那裡獲得了一些份額收益。然後顯然在消費者直銷管道中，在接近 10 秒的時間裡，我們也看到了更多的產量。所以，我認為，一月份在這裡是一個活躍的月份。與 12 月不同的是，我們感覺這個月的大部分時間都處於度假狀態。

With respect to the second question relating to the 2025 maturity, so we do have a unsecured debt maturity coming up later in the year. That is part of our capital planning that we're looking at as we go through the year in 2025, both to address that 2025 maturity later in the year as well as to move forward on our objective that we've discussed previously to move our nonfunding debt mix more toward unsecured, a bit away from the the funding secured by MSR.

關於第二個問題，涉及 2025 年到期，因此我們在今年稍後確實有一筆無擔保債務到期。這是我們在 2025 年期間正在考慮的資本規劃的一部分，既是為了在今年晚些時候解決 2025 年到期的問題，也是為了推進我們之前討論過的目標，即推動我們的非融資性債務結構更多偏向無擔保債務，與MSR 擔保的融資債務略有不同。

We are looking to enter into transactions in the unsecured market through 2025, trying to find what the best opportunities for that would be in order to achieve both of those objectives. But we do expect to be in the market in 2025 in the unsecured market to both address the maturity as well as increase our overall proportion of unsecured debt.

我們希望在 2025 年之前進入無擔保市場進行交易，並試圖找到實現這兩個目標的最佳機會。但我們確實希望在 2025 年進入無擔保債務市場，以解決債務到期問題並增加無擔保債務的整體比例。

Thank you very much, guys. Very helpful.

非常感謝你們。非常有幫助。

Derek Sommers, Jefferies

傑富瑞的德里克·薩默斯

Good afternoon, everyone. Based on your approved broker count in the presentation, what percentage of the total broker market do you think you've penetrated so far?

大家下午好。根據您在簡報中批准的經紀人數量，您認為迄今為止您已經滲透了整個經紀人市場的多少百分比？

I would say somewhere between 25% and 30%. And the nice thing is that this the velocity of growth is accelerating as we're seeing as we're getting share growth and more people are seeing, our performance and our pricing is building upon itself. So I expect growth to continue at a very good pace in 2025. I think that we had good share growth for the year of 2024.

我認為大概在 25​​% 到 30% 之間。令人欣慰的是，隨著我們的份額不斷增長，越來越多的人看到我們的業績和定價不斷提升，成長速度也不斷加快。因此我預計 2025 年將繼續保持良好的成長速度。我認為到 2024 年我們的份額將實現良好的成長。

But I believe we'll have even better share growth in 2025 as clearly brokers are understanding they need an alternative to the top two dots. And so we and given our performance to date in terms of our product mix and our ability to adapt to changing markets and build a reputation in the broker community, it's building upon itself and the momentum is really nice to see.

但我相信到 2025 年我們的份額將增長得更好，因為經紀人顯然明白他們需要一個替代頂部兩個點的標誌。因此，鑑於我們迄今為止在產品組合方面的表現以及我們適應不斷變化的市場和在經紀商社區中建立聲譽的能力，我們正在不斷發展，這種勢頭確實令人欣喜。

Got it. Thank you. And then just to pivot to escrow income, how should we think about, balancing portfolio growth as a tailwind versus the potential for declining short term rates looking through 2025?

知道了。謝謝。然後轉向託管收入，我們應該如何考慮在投資組合成長的順風與 2025 年短期利率下降的可能性之間取得平衡？

Sure. So I mean, as you mentioned, a lot of it is dependent on what happens exactly with short term rates. So I think we're still expecting or the forward curve futures market is implying limited cuts additional cuts here in 2025. I think still one to two cuts. So not necessarily expecting a lot of movement on the rate that would the short term rates, which would drive the placement fee, the placement fee levels on those balances that we receive in terms of the portfolio, still expecting pretty significant significant growth in the portfolio as we move through 2020, as we move through 2025.

當然。所以我的意思是，正如你所提到的，這在很大程度上取決於短期利率的具體變化。因此，我認為我們仍然預期，或者遠期曲線期貨市場暗示 2025 年將有有限的減產和額外的減產。我認為仍會削減一到兩次。因此，我們不一定期望利率會有很大的變動，短期利率將推動安置費，我們在投資組合中收到的餘額的安置費水平，我們仍然期望投資組合會有相當大的增長隨著我們邁向2020 年，隨著我們邁向2025 年。

Very similar in terms of the amount that we're adding to the portfolio each quarter, especially at prepayment speeds, especially prepayment speeds remain contained. And so I think balancing those effects where we're not expecting a lot of short term reduction, but are expecting continued growth to the portfolios, we expect that overall dollar number in total from the from the run rate, if you will, that we have in Q4 to continue to increase overall through the year.

就我們每季添加到投資組合的金額而言非常相似，尤其是預付款速度，尤其是預付款速度保持在可控範圍內。因此，我認為平衡這些影響，我們預計短期內不會有大量減幅，但預計投資組合將繼續增長，我們預計總美元數額將從運行率中得出，如果你願意的話，第四季度全年整體將繼續增長。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Hey guys, good afternoon. Actually, I wanted to ask on the direct to consumer side, your volume, I assume, is still largely recapture. Are therestrategies you're thinking about to market to consumers outside of your servicing portfolio?

大家下午好。實際上，我想問一下直接面向消費者方面的問題，我想你們的銷量仍然基本上恢復正常。您是否正在考慮採用什麼策略來向您的服務組合之外的消費者推銷產品？

Absolutely. There's it's a huge part of our strategic plan this year to focus on our brand. And over the next quarter, you're going to see a series of announcements from us that reflect that commitment. It's a lot of, it's a lot of, it's a reflection, a lot of time and work that Doug and the team have put in place to really start focusing on the brand.

絕對地。關注我們的品牌是我們今年戰略計劃的很大一部分。下個季度，您將看到我們發布的一系列體現這項承諾的公告。這是很多的，很多的，這是一種反思，道格和他的團隊已經投入了大量的時間和精力來真正開始關注這個品牌。

Similarly, there's, there's, there's marketing direct strategies to our portfolio on purchase transactions. And then, and then finally, I think I'm generally pleased with just the, what I'm seeing in terms of the name recognition of PennyMac. And that's just going to grow as the brand strategy gets implemented.

同樣，在購買交易方面，我們的投資組合也有直接行銷策略。最後，我認為我對 PennyMac 的知名度感到滿意。隨著品牌策略的實施，這一數字也將不斷成長。

And so I think that as we sit here at higher rates, it's imperative for us to really focusing on the new customer acquisition part of our consumer direct channel. And Doug and the team are really hyper-focused on continuing to drive leads in from that part of our Consumer Direct channel.

因此我認為，當我們處於更高的利率時，我們必須真正關註消費者直銷管道中的新客戶獲取部分。道格和他的團隊高度重視繼續從消費者直銷管道的這一部分吸引潛在客戶。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon and hope all you guys are okay following the fires in your area. I know that you don't typically give guidance around origination volume, but do you feel like the lower bound for your originations on a go forward basis will be call it at least $30 billion per quarter. And from the perspective of the correspondent sellers, I mean, how competitive is the alternative for them just being the opportunity to deliver loans into the cash window?

嘿，謝謝。下午好，希望你們所在地區發生火災後一切都好。我知道您通常不會對發起量給予指導，但您是否認為未來發起量的下限是每季至少 300 億美元？從代理賣家的角度來看，對於他們來說，將貸款發放到現金窗口的機會有多大的競爭力？

Yeah, I don't -- I think as it pertains to correspondent, the cash window ebbs and flows and look, Fannie and Freddie are important business partners of ours. And I think they're going to be increasingly distracted as the new administration begins to really look at alternatives for Fannie and Freddie.

是的，我不這麼認為——我認為就通訊員而言，現金窗口有起有落，看，房利美和房地美是我們的重要商業夥伴。我認為，隨著新政府開始真正尋找房利美和房地美的替代方案，他們的注意力會越來越分散。

Do they come out of conservatorship? Nobody knows, but at a minimum, there's going to be a lot of focus on making sure that if they do come out, that they're ready to go. And I think it's going to be pretty quiet from my perspective in terms of new programs coming out of the agencies. And similarly, I just don't see the window, from time to time there'll be a competitor, but I see that as one alternative.

他們是否已經脫離監護了？沒人知道，但至少，我們會集中精力確保他們一旦出來，就已做好準備。從我的角度來看，我認為各機構推出的新項目將會相當平靜。同樣，我只是看不到機會，有時會有競爭對手，但我認為這是一種選擇。

The other thing, the window becomes less of an issue in periods of time of higher interest rates because sellers don't want to retain servicing because they don't hedge that servicing. And so when rates were zero, there was a much better economic thesis to holding on to servicing. When rates when mortgage rates are 7%, yeah, that's not so much the case.

另一件事是，在利率較高的時期，窗口期不再是一個問題，因為賣家不想保留服務，因為他們不對沖這些服務。因此，當利率為零時，繼續提供服務具有更好的經濟意義。當抵押貸款利率為 7% 時，情況就不那麼嚴重了。

I think in terms of the competitive landscape in correspondent, look, we've got great competitors out there. They're good people. But at the end of the day, we are the leading correspondent aggregator. We're -- Abby and Alex and the team are going to continue to grow market share there. And that's something -- and they're going to do so profitably. And that's something that they're very much focused on.

我認為，從通訊領域的競爭格局來看，我們有許多強大的競爭對手。他們都是好人。但最終，我們是領先的通訊社聚合商。我們——艾比、亞歷克斯和團隊將繼續在那裡擴大市場份額。這確實是一件好事——而且他們這樣做還能獲利。這是他們非常關注的事情。

And in markets like this, correspondent sellers want to make sure they're continuing to maintain a very strong relationship with us in --for when periods of time when rates do decline, they need to have an aggregator who can, who can clear warehouse lines quickly and, and can buy loans quickly. So that is something that is, I think, really going to be the case for correspondent.

在這樣的市場中，代理賣家希望確保他們繼續與我們保持非常牢固的關係——因為當利率下降時，他們需要一個能夠清理倉庫的聚合器並能快速購買貸款。所以，我認為，這對記者來說確實存在。

And that is all the time we have for questions. I'd like to turn it back to David Spector for closing remarks.

我們回答問題的時間就到此為止。我想請戴維‧史佩克特作最後發言。

Okay. Well, listen, I want to thank everyone for the call. I'm really sorry about the interruption. That's not on our end. We're great with technology. But if you have any questions or any thought, please reach out to our Investor Relations team. They're always available. I'll always make myself available and thank you all for the great questions and the robust discussion. Bye bye.

好的。好吧，聽著，我要感謝大家的來電。我真的很抱歉打擾您。這不是我們的責任。我們的技術非常出色。但如果您有任何疑問或想法，請聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。他們隨時都有空。我將隨時為您提供協助，並感謝大家提出的精彩問題和熱烈的討論。再見。

Thank you all for joining us this afternoon. We encourage investors with additional questions to contact our Investor Relations team by email or by phone. Thank you.

感謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們鼓勵有其他疑問的投資者透過電子郵件或電話聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。謝謝。