Premier Financial Corp (OHIO) (PFC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Premier Financial Corp. Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 Premier Financial Corp. 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Nungester from Premier Financial Corp. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給 Premier Financial Corp 的 Paul Nungester。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. This call is also being webcast, and the audio replay will be available at the Premier Financial Corp. website at premierfincorp.com.

謝謝。大家早上好，感謝您參加今天的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。此電話會議也進行了網絡直播，音頻重播將在 Premier Financial Corp. 網站 premierfincorp.com 上提供。

Following our prepared comments on the company's strategy and performance, we will be available to take your questions. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the conference call today, including during the question-and-answer period, you may hear forward-looking statements related to future financial results and business operations for Premier Financial Corp. Actual results may differ materially from management forecasts and projections as a result of factors over which the company has no control.

根據我們對公司戰略和業績的準備好的評論，我們將可以回答您的問題。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議期間，包括在問答期間，您可能會聽到與 Premier Financial Corp. 未來財務業績和業務運營相關的前瞻性陳述。 實際結果由於公司無法控制的因素，可能與管理層的預測和預測存在重大差異。

Information on these risk factors and additional information on forward-looking statements are included in the news release and in the company's reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關這些風險因素的信息和有關前瞻性陳述的其他信息包含在新聞稿和公司向美國證券交易委員會備案的報告中。

And now I'll turn the call over to Gary for his opening comments.

現在我將把電話轉給加里，聽取他的開場白。

Thank you, Paul, and good morning to everyone. We really appreciate you joining us today. Just as a comment, as we begin, I want to acknowledge that Matt Garrity, a gentleman who's been a participant on this call for a number of years, will not be with us this morning. Matt has accepted a role as CEO at a very fine institution over in Western Massachusetts. And I wanted to take a moment to thank him for all these contributed to us over the years. It's very much appreciated, and we wish him well as new endeavor.

謝謝你，保羅，大家早上好。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們。作為評論，在我們開始時，我想承認 Matt Garrity，一位多年來一直參與此次電話會議的紳士，今天早上不會和我們在一起。馬特接受了馬薩諸塞州西部一家非常優秀的機構的首席執行官一職。我想花點時間感謝他多年來為我們做出的所有貢獻。非常感謝，我們祝愿他在新的嘗試中一切順利。

Last evening, we reported net income for the quarter of $25.3 million or $0.71 a share with full earnings for the year, topping $102 million, or $2.85 a share. The fourth quarter saw a continuation of the theme for Premier in 2022. Strong loan and deposit growth driving net interest income, tempered by higher growth-related loan loss provisions and a weakened residential lending environment. In addition, Q4 expenses underperformed uncharacteristically for the organization this quarter.

昨晚，我們報告本季度淨收入為 2530 萬美元或每股 0.71 美元，全年收益超過 1.02 億美元或每股 2.85 美元。第四季度延續了 2022 年 Premier 的主題。強勁的貸款和存款增長推動了淨利息收入，但與增長相關的貸款損失準備金增加以及住宅貸款環境疲軟的影響有所緩和。此外，本季度該組織的第四季度支出一反常態。

For the year, loans were up 20%. Deposits are up 7.7% and net interest income was strong. Through the 3 first quarters of the year, excuse me, the first 3 quarters of the year, deposit pricing lagged very purposefully and margins expanded. The fourth quarter results reflect higher repricing velocity in select deposit portfolios along with an increase in noncore funding, and thus, the margin has retracted.

今年，貸款增長了 20%。存款增長 7.7%，淨利息收入強勁。在今年的前 3 個季度，對不起，今年前 3 個季度，存款定價非常有目的地滯後，利潤率擴大。第四季度的業績反映了部分存款投資組合的重新定價速度加快以及非核心資金的增加，因此利潤率有所回落。

The Fed's actions over the third and fourth quarters have elevated our clients' deposit pricing expectations. And when combined with our increased utilization of noncore funding sources, our total cost of funds are likely to remain elevated in the near term. Beta management has never been more important.

美聯儲在第三和第四季度的行動提高了我們客戶的存款定價預期。再加上我們對非核心資金來源的利用增加，我們的總資金成本在短期內可能會保持高位。 Beta 管理從未如此重要。

We've made meaningful strides in repricing our most elastic deposit business lines to ensure deposit retention and in support of growing our deposit base in '23, and Paul will have much more on this topic shortly.

我們在重新定價我們最有彈性的存款業務線以確保存款保留並支持在 23 年擴大我們的存款基礎方面取得了有意義的進展，Paul 很快就會在這個話題上有更多的內容。

Overall loan growth for the quarter was up $239 million. That's 15% on an annualized basis. That ran a little hotter than we had telegraphed at the end of the third quarter. Commercial growth was up just shy of 13%. The higher-than-anticipated loan growth triggered a hike in our loan provision figures for the quarter as well as it has all year as is a seasonal impact on such growth.

本季度的整體貸款增長了 2.39 億美元。按年化計算，這是 15%。這比我們在第三季度末發出的電報要熱一點。商業增長率略低於 13%。高於預期的貸款增長引發了我們本季度以及全年的貸款撥備數據的上升，這是對此類增長的季節性影響。

Full year total loan growth totaled $1.17 billion, with the commercial growth of 20%. Consumer was up 26%, and residential mortgage growth came in at 25%. The new money commercial commitments were $1.75 billion for the year. Obviously, a very big year for the team and good momentum going forward and a nice combination of business to both existing and new clients.

全年貸款總額增長 11.7 億美元，商業增長 20%。消費增長 26%，住宅抵押貸款增長 25%。這一年的新資金商業承諾為 17.5 億美元。顯然，這對團隊來說是非常重要的一年，未來發展勢頭良好，現有客戶和新客戶的業務組合也很好。

Our C&I originations totaled 41% in the fourth quarter, and it continues to be a primary focus for our commercial team, while line utilization remains under 40% because our clients are utilizing their cash on hand.

我們的 C&I 發起在第四季度總計 41%，它仍然是我們商業團隊的主要關注點，而線路利用率仍低於 40%，因為我們的客戶正在使用他們手頭的現金。

Residential mortgage originations for the quarter came in at about $200 million and $1 billion for the year. That's about 75% of the expectation we had when we entered 2022 when the year looks so different. Difficult market -- a difficult market and a challenging environment to be selling to the Fannie and Freddie network. Our gain on sale continues to underperform historical levels in terms of basis points.

本季度的住宅抵押貸款發放額約為 2 億美元，全年為 10 億美元。這大約是我們進入 2022 年時的預期的 75%，因為這一年看起來如此不同。艱難的市場——向房利美和房地美網絡銷售的艱難市場和充滿挑戰的環境。就基點而言，我們的銷售收益繼續低於歷史水平。

Swings in residential construction hedges valuations unfavorably impacted fourth quarter revenue as falling residential rate environment in November actually negated a positive hedge position that we recorded in the third quarter. And so net-net, the 2 quarters combined, the right number got posted, but it certainly had an unfavorable impact on the fourth quarter alone, and we estimate it to be about $0.04. So think of that as timing within the 2 quarters.

住宅建築對沖估值的波動對第四季度的收入產生了不利影響，因為 11 月份住宅利率下降的環境實際上抵消了我們在第三季度記錄的積極對沖頭寸。所以 net-net，兩個季度合併，公佈了正確的數字，但它肯定僅對第四季度產生了不利影響，我們估計約為 0.04 美元。因此，將其視為兩個季度內的時間。

12/31 delinquency was 74 basis points, and that's very much in line with the performance over the course of the year. Net charge-off trends remain very low. We had 1.5 basis points of net charge-offs for the year when you exclude a large charge-offs that we took in the midyear that we had specifically reserved for in 2021. Nonperforming loans were down 4% versus the third quarter.

12/31 的拖欠率為 74 個基點，這與全年的表現非常吻合。淨註銷趨勢仍然很低。如果不包括我們在年中專門為 2021 年預留的大量沖銷，我們今年的淨沖銷為 1.5 個基點。不良貸款與第三季度相比下降了 4%。

So Paul, I'll give it over to you for more details.

所以保羅，我會把它交給你了解更多細節。

Thank you, Gary. I'll summarize some of our fourth quarter and full year results, beginning with the balance sheet growth.

謝謝你，加里。我將總結我們第四季度和全年的一些業績，首先是資產負債表的增長。

Total loans, including those held for sale, increased by $239 million during the quarter, representing a 15% annualized growth or 20.5% year-over-year growth. As Gary mentioned, growth occurred in all categories, including commercial, residential and consumer.

本季度包括持有待售貸款在內的貸款總額增加了 2.39 億美元，年化增長率為 15%，同比增長 20.5%。正如 Gary 所提到的，增長出現在所有類別中，包括商業、住宅和消費者。

Deposit growth was also healthy where we added $100 million of customer deposits in the quarter or 6% annualized growth or almost 8% year-over-year. Noninterest-bearing deposits led the way with over 9% annualized growth in the quarter, while interest-bearing deposits grew almost 5% annualized.

存款增長也很健康，我們在本季度增加了 1 億美元的客戶存款，年化增長率為 6%，同比增長近 8%。無息存款在本季度以超過 9% 的年化增長率領先，而計息存款的年化增長率接近 5%。

Due to loan growth outpacing deposit growth, creating a continued reliance on higher cost FHLB and an accelerated deposit beta, we did experience some compression of net interest income and margin during 4Q. Excluding PPP and marks, loan yields increased 27 basis points to 4.51% and total interest-earning asset yield increased 31 basis points to 4.21%. These represented betas of 18% and 22%, respectively, compared to the increase in the average effective Federal Funds rate for the quarter.

由於貸款增長超過存款增長，導致對成本較高的 FHLB 的持續依賴和存款貝塔加速，我們在第四季度確實經歷了淨利息收入和利潤率的一些壓縮。不計入 PPP 和馬克，貸款收益率上升 27 個基點至 4.51%，生息資產總收益率上升 31 個基點至 4.21%。與本季度平均有效聯邦基金利率的增幅相比，這些貝塔值分別為 18% 和 22%。

Deposit costs, excluding marks and broker deposits, increased 34 basis points to 0.72% for a 22% beta in the quarter. However, total cost of funds, excluding marks but including broker deposits and floating rate borrowings increased 41 basis points to 0.97% for a 28% beta. The increase in cost of funds in excess of the increase in our earning -- interest-earning asset yield less than the margin compression for 4Q.

存款成本（不包括標記和經紀人存款）增加 34 個基點至 0.72%，本季度貝塔值為 22%。然而，總資金成本（不包括標記但包括經紀人存款和浮動利率借款）增加 41 個基點至 0.97%，貝塔係數為 28%。資金成本的增加超過了我們收入的增加——生息資產收益率低於第四季度的利潤率壓縮。

On a full year basis, net interest income increased $15 million or almost 7% on a tax equivalent basis and $29 million or 14% on a core basis, excluding PPP and marks. Net interest margin also increased 4 basis points to 3.28% on a core basis.

在全年基礎上，淨利息收入增加了 1500 萬美元或近 7%（按稅收等值計算）和 2900 萬美元或 14%（不包括 PPP 和標記）。在核心基礎上，淨息差也增加了 4 個基點，達到 3.28%。

Next, noninterest income of $14.2 million for 4Q was down $2.5 million from the prior quarter primarily due to mortgage banking. Mortgage banking income decreased $4.3 million on a linked-quarter basis due to a $4.6 million decrease in gains offset slightly by $300,000 higher MSR valuation gains. This was primarily driven by hedge fluctuations.

其次，第四季度的非利息收入為 1,420 萬美元，比上一季度減少 250 萬美元，這主要是由於抵押銀行業務。抵押銀行收入環比下降 430 萬美元，原因是 460 萬美元的收益減少被 MSR 估值收益增加 300,000 美元所抵消。這主要是由對沖波動驅動的。

In prior quarters, our hedges increased in value as rates increased and mortgage prices decreased, and the reverse occurred in 4Q at an accelerated pace such that our prior hedge gains were effectively eliminated. As a result, the cumulative net hedging as a wash, but the individual quarters can be volatile -- volatile once corrections occur like in 4Q.

在前幾個季度，我們的對沖價值隨著利率上升和抵押貸款價格下降而增加，並且在第四季度加速發生逆轉，從而有效消除了我們之前的對沖收益。因此，累積淨對沖作為洗盤，但個別季度可能會波動——一旦像第四季度那樣出現修正，就會波動。

Security gains were $1.2 million in 4Q, primarily from $1.3 million of gains on the sale of $8.7 million of equity securities which were partially offset by $100,000 of decreased valuations on our remaining unsold equity securities. We also sold $9.6 million of available-for-sale securities for a minor gain and the combined $18.3 million of proceeds from security sales will benefit net interest income beginning in the first quarter of 2023.

第 4 季度的證券收益為 120 萬美元，主要來自出售 870 萬美元股票的收益 130 萬美元，這部分被我們剩餘未售出股票的估值下降 100,000 美元所抵消。我們還出售了 960 萬美元的可供出售證券以獲得少量收益，從 2023 年第一季度開始，證券銷售收益總額為 1830 萬美元，將有利於淨利息收入。

On a full year basis, noninterest income declined $17 million with $5 million from security gains and $12 million from mortgage banking, which decreased due to lower production, salable mix and margins.

從全年來看，非利息收入下降了 1700 萬美元，其中 500 萬美元來自證券收益，1200 萬美元來自抵押銀行業務，這是由於產量、可銷售組合和利潤率下降所致。

Expenses of $43 million were up 4.7% on a linked-quarter basis partly from further lower deferred costs related to the lower quarterly residential mortgage loan production as well as higher health care benefit costs that increased in 4Q after positive trends in the prior 2 quarters. On a full year basis, expenses increased $7 million or 4.6%, primarily due to compensation and benefits, which increased due to higher staffing levels for our growth initiatives and higher base compensation for annual increases plus one year adjustments that we mentioned previously.

費用為 4,300 萬美元，環比增長 4.7%，部分原因是與季度住宅抵押貸款產量下降相關的遞延成本進一步降低，以及在前兩個季度出現積極趨勢後，第四季度醫療保健福利成本增加。在全年基礎上，費用增加了 700 萬美元或 4.6%，主要是由於薪酬和福利，增加的原因是我們的增長計劃的人員配置水平更高，年度增長的基本薪酬更高，加上我們之前提到的一年調整。

The allowance increased $2.2 million in 4Q due to $3 million of provision expense for loan growth, offset partially by $830,000 of charge-offs. Our asset quality stacks remained solid during the quarter with annual decreases for nonperforming loans and classified loans of 30% and 37%, respectively.

由於 300 萬美元的貸款增長撥備費用，第四季度的準備金增加了 220 萬美元，部分被 830,000 美元的沖銷抵消。我們的資產質量在本季度保持穩定，不良貸款和分類貸款的年增長率分別下降了 30% 和 37%。

At December 31, our allowance coverage of nonperforming loans was 215%.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的不良貸款撥備覆蓋率為 215%。

Finishing the balance sheet of capital with a quarterly increase primarily due to earnings in excess of dividends and an $8 million positive valuation adjustment on the available-for-sale securities portfolio. At December 31, our tangible equity ratio was 6.78%, an increase of 11 basis points from 9/30 and excluding AOCI, TE would still be approximately 9% at 12/31, consistent with 9/30.

主要由於收益超過股息和對可供出售證券組合進行 800 萬美元的積極估值調整，以季度增長完成資本資產負債表。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的有形權益比率為 6.78%，比 9/30 增加了 11 個基點，如果不計入 AOCI，TE 的比率仍約為 9%，為 12/31，與 9/30 一致。

Additionally, our regulatory ratios remain comfortably in excess of well-capitalized guidelines with Tier 1 capital at approximately 10.1% and total capital at approximately 11.9% on a consolidated basis at 12/31.

此外，我們的監管比率仍然輕鬆超過資本充足的指導方針，一級資本約為 10.1%，總資本約為 11.9%，綜合比率為 12/31。

That completes my financial review, and I'll now turn the call over to Gary for some additional remarks.

我的財務審查到此結束，現在我將把電話轉給加里，聽取一些補充意見。

Thanks again, Paul. I'll share a few thoughts on our financial performance expectations for '23 as is our norm.

再次感謝，保羅。我將分享一些關於我們對 23 年財務業績預期的看法，這是我們的常態。

Expect point-to-point earning asset growth of a more modest 5% or so, plus or minus, in '23. Average balance growth will benefit from the very strong '22 growth trajectory we've experienced. Pipelines entering '23 a bit lighter as you might expect. Deposit growth will be in line with the balance sheet growth. And our core net interest income, excluding PPP grew $29 million in '22 versus '21, and that same momentum and trajectory will be a benefit to us in '23.

預計 23 年的點對點盈利資產增長率將達到 5% 左右，上下浮動。平均餘額增長將受益於我們經歷過的非常強勁的 22 增長軌跡。如您所料，進入 23 年的管道會更輕一些。存款增長將與資產負債表增長保持一致。我們的核心淨利息收入（不包括購買力平價）在 22 年與 21 年相比增長了 2900 萬美元，同樣的勢頭和軌跡將在 23 年對我們有利。

We have a bit more margin uncertainty in the first 6 months of the year. We think we could see movement in either direction to some degree until things settle down with the Fed and customer expectations. We do have 50 bps of Fed turns cooked into our plan for the upcoming year.

今年前 6 個月，我們的利潤率不確定性更大一些。我們認為，在美聯儲和客戶期望問題得到解決之前，我們可能會在某種程度上看到任何一個方向的變化。我們確實將 50 個基點的美聯儲轉變納入了我們來年的計劃。

Provision for growth and modest net charge-offs meet our expectations. No meaningful movement and unemployment is expected, which would affect potentially the provision expense. No material change in the residential mortgage fee income contribution in '23 versus '22, we're going to assume it continues to be a soft market. Noninterest income otherwise will range between 3% and 5% up.

增長撥備和適度的淨沖銷符合我們的預期。預計不會出現有意義的變動和失業，這可能會影響撥備費用。與 22 年相比，23 年住宅抵押貸款費用收入貢獻沒有重大變化，我們將假設它仍然是一個疲軟的市場。否則，非利息收入將增長 3% 至 5%。

We have the typical cost containment measures, and we expect 3.5% or so year-over-year. We continue to support our digital bank enhancement program for this year, which is our mobile and online offering. And this year also, '23 will include the annualized effect as the midyear salary year readjustments we made in '22. So 3.5% is an aggressive number. For '22 as a whole, we were up 4.6%, which I think would be a bit higher than we had anticipated, but well within the environment and what we're seeing with peer organizations.

我們有典型的成本控制措施，我們預計同比增長 3.5% 左右。我們今年繼續支持我們的數字銀行增強計劃，這是我們的移動和在線產品。而今年，'23 也將年化效應作為我們在'22 中進行的年中工資調整。所以 3.5% 是一個激進的數字。對於整個 22 年，我們增長了 4.6%，我認為這會比我們預期的要高一點，但在環境和我們在同行組織中看到的情況下。

Our efficiency ratio targeted for '23 is just a hair over 53% and we do have positive operating leverage when we adjust '22 for the PPP and security gains impact.

我們針對 '23 的效率比率僅略高於 53%，當我們針對 PPP 和安全收益影響調整 '22 時，我們確實具有積極的運營槓桿。

So we've given you a lot to work with there. And I'm ready to turn it over for questions.

因此，我們為您提供了很多幫助。我準備好把它交給問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today goes to Brendan Nosal of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題是 Piper Sandler 的 Brendan Nosal。

Just to start on the mortgage piece I want to make sure I kind of interpreted your commentary right. It sounds like the sum of the past 2 quarters is kind of the right run rate going forward. Does that kind of imply like roughly $1.5 million to start the year in total mortgage banking income on a quarterly basis?

只是從抵押貸款開始，我想確保我對你的評論的解釋是正確的。聽起來過去兩個季度的總和是未來正確的運行率。這是否意味著按季度計算的抵押貸款銀行總收入在年初大約為 150 萬美元？

I think we were a little north of $6 million for the year. I think we're closer to $8 million, like $2 million a quarter.

我認為我們今年的收入略高於 600 萬美元。我認為我們接近 800 萬美元，比如每季度 200 萬美元。

That would include the servicing income along with the normal gain on sale. That's why it was so the answer there. The $6.5 million might mean the gain on sale, but overall fee income would be $8.5 million.

這將包括服務收入以及正常的銷售收益。這就是為什麼它是如此的答案。 650 萬美元可能意味著銷售收益，但總費用收入為 850 萬美元。

Your point on the hedge activity kind of overstated Q3 and with the rate movement that if it hadn't occurred, we'd still be sitting -- sitting on it, but the rate movement did the offset in Q4. So that's the mismatch.

你對對沖活動的觀點有點誇大了第三季度，如果利率變動沒有發生，我們仍然會坐下來——坐在它上面，但利率變動在第四季度抵消了。這就是不匹配。

Okay. Understood. Understood. And then maybe one more for me before I step back. Certainly, we hear your comments, Gary, on kind of margin sounds like plus or minus from here depending on the variety of [not getting] better. (inaudible) things. I mean, what gives you confidence that we won't see another quarter or 2 of compression of this magnitude in the fourth quarter?

好的。明白了。明白了。在我退後一步之前，也許再給我一個。當然，加里，我們聽到了你的評論，這裡的利潤率聽起來像是加號或減號，這取決於 [沒有] 變得更好的程度。 （聽不清）事情。我的意思是，是什麼讓您有信心我們不會在第四季度看到另一個或兩個如此大的壓縮？

Well, and Paul can share some details. We have dug into the product portfolios and the business portfolios as we've gone through our pricing strategy in response to some of that higher demand and asked some of our clients as well as our intent to raise new money in the market. And we've really find very managed betas in our consumer book, the majority of our business book and so forth. And we've isolated all of our efforts around wealth management and certain segments of our business clients, where we see that elasticity and the competition really being fierce.

好吧，保羅可以分享一些細節。我們已經深入研究了產品組合和業務組合，因為我們已經通過我們的定價策略來響應一些更高的需求，並詢問了我們的一些客戶以及我們在市場上籌集新資金的意圖。我們確實在我們的消費者書籍、我們的大部分商業書籍等中找到了非常有管理的測試版。而且我們已經將我們圍繞財富管理和我們業務客戶的某些部分的所有努力隔離開來，我們看到彈性和競爭確實非常激烈。

And we have at this point, I'll take wealth management book as an example, that's a money market book of about $0.5 billion. We have repriced 75% of that book. So I guess if I would leave you with anything, I'm not sure everybody has got to that point yet, but they will. But that was one -- we're wanting to raise deposits. The first thing was, let's not unintentionally lose deposits by dragging our feet too long in that book.

在這一點上，我將以財富管理書籍為例，這是一本約 5 億美元的貨幣市場書籍。我們已經重新定價了那本書的 75%。所以我想如果我想給你們留下任何東西，我不確定每個人都已經達到那個程度，但他們會的。但那是一個 - 我們想要籌集存款。第一件事是，我們不要因為在那本書上拖得太久而無意中損失存款。

But that gives you some indication of where we've been very busy in getting repriced and so we don't have that to deal within the next 6 months. So there's that. And I think we've isolated the other portfolios to understand the elasticity and we feel pretty comfortable that we will be able to continue to sort of slow place some rate increases as we launch or the competition elsewhere.

但這給了你一些跡象，表明我們一直非常忙於重新定價，因此我們在接下來的 6 個月內沒有處理這些問題。就是這樣。而且我認為我們已經隔離了其他投資組合以了解彈性並且我們感到非常自在我們將能夠繼續放慢速度，因為我們推出或在其他地方進行競爭。

Paul, anything you would add there?

保羅，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, you pretty much hit it. I mean, included in the business would be [about] funds. And those would have higher betas traditionally than some of the other buckets, partly just due to the product mix, like a STAR Ohio product.

不，你幾乎擊中了它。我的意思是，業務中包括 [about] 資金。那些傳統上比其他一些桶有更高的貝塔值，部分原因是產品組合，比如 STAR Ohio 產品。

Yes. And that's the obvious one. I mean, we do have pricing that's linked to the Federal Home Loan Bank. So to the extent the Fed is not going to do 225 basis points of movement in a quarter, then '23 would be a little bit more stable relative to that large funding source as well.

是的。這是顯而易見的。我的意思是，我們確實有與聯邦住房貸款銀行掛鉤的定價。因此，如果美聯儲不會在一個季度內進行 225 個基點的變動，那麼相對於這個龐大的資金來源，23 年也會稍微穩定一些。

And the next question goes to Michael Perito of KBW.

下一個問題交給 KBW 的 Michael Perito。

So obviously, Gary, you provided quite a bit of commentary for next year, but just to confirm on the efficiency ratio, kind of taking into consideration all different parts. I mean it sounds like you expect to be more in the full year range than the fourth quarter, I think you said the 53%. I just want to make sure that I'm thinking about that correctly, which would likely assume some rebound in mortgage, maybe some stabilization in NIM and then the cost efforts that you mentioned. Is that fair?

很明顯，加里，你為明年提供了很多評論，但只是為了確認效率比，考慮到所有不同的部分。我的意思是，聽起來你預計全年範圍內比第四季度更多，我想你說的是 53%。我只是想確保我考慮的是正確的，這可能會假設抵押貸款有所反彈，NIM 可能會有所穩定，然後是你提到的成本努力。這公平嗎？

Yes. Correct. Mike, this fall on the full year estimate for efficiency. It won't be the fourth quarter run rate. We have some elevated expenses there, as we mentioned, but that will be coming back down. And yes, NIM plays out the way that we're talking about here, if mortgage -- we're not projecting it to really rebound. We just expect it to be kind of steady state.

是的。正確的。邁克，今年秋天對效率的全年估計。這不會是第四季度的運行率。正如我們所提到的，我們在那裡有一些高昂的開支，但那將會回落。是的，NIM 發揮了我們在這裡談論的方式，如果抵押貸款——我們預計它不會真正反彈。我們只是希望它是一種穩定狀態。

If you look at it on a full year basis, '22 versus 23 mix will be different. Gains should be a little better, but we won't have the MSR gains that we had this year but servicing in excess of our amortization. So net-net, call it a push or so on mortgage that's how we're getting to that full year efficiency estimate.

如果你從全年來看，'22 和 23 的組合會有所不同。收益應該好一點，但我們不會有今年的 MSR 收益，但服務超過我們的攤銷。所以 net-net，稱其為抵押貸款的推動力，這就是我們獲得全年效率估計的方式。

The fact that we've got -- it's not as high as our traditional number, but we do have positive operating leverage kind of helps keep a cap on the efficiency ratio.

我們得到的事實——它並不像我們傳統的數字那麼高，但我們確實有積極的經營槓桿，這有助於限制效率比。

Got it. And then just on the -- maybe a follow-up to the NIM kind of line of questioning. I mean when I think about the fourth quarter and what happened in terms of the new compression, it doesn't really seem like kind of the foundational elements of how your NIM structure change. It just seems like loan world accelerated in a quarter where incremental funding was expensive, right?

知道了。然後只是——也許是對 NIM 系列問題的跟進。我的意思是，當我想到第四季度以及在新壓縮方面發生的事情時，它似乎並不是 NIM 結構如何變化的基本要素。似乎貸款世界在一個季度加速增長，增量融資成本很高，對吧？

And so I guess, the follow-up I would have is you guys guided to lower earning asset growth, but like, what's the line to site on that? I mean it sounds like pipelines are a bit slower to start the year. Is it more environmental? Is it both environmental and you guys being more selective? Is there more of an effort to kind of target a specific earning asset growth rate that will be easier to fund in this environment? Or is it just kind of the way the cards are playing at this point in time?

所以我想，我的後續行動是引導你們降低盈利資產增長，但是，在這方面的定位是什麼？我的意思是聽起來管道在今年開始有點慢。是不是更環保？是不是既環保又你們更有選擇性？是否有更多的努力來瞄准在這種環境下更容易融資的特定盈利資產增長率？或者這只是某種牌在這個時間點打牌的方式？

Mike, I think your comment on the environment combined with targeted effect will be bought us by design, whereas take the fourth quarter, I think we had targeted that we thought we'd see 1% to 2% growth, let's call double of that and the third and fourth quarters for both quarters, we thought we would see a pullback on the client -- from the clients on business and it just kept coming.

邁克，我認為你對環境的評論與目標效果相結合將被我們設計購買，而在第四季度，我認為我們的目標是我們認為我們會看到 1% 到 2% 的增長，我們稱之為兩倍以及兩個季度的第三和第四季度，我們認為我們會看到客戶的回調——來自業務客戶，而且它一直在持續。

So as we plan for '23, there will be certain asset classes and transaction types that core customers and so forth that will get more preference on our attention, and we will manage our number from a growth standpoint to deliver those sort of growth that we talked about, a little more so than we've had to do in the past.

因此，在我們為 23 年計劃時，核心客戶等某些資產類別和交易類型將更受我們關注，我們將從增長的角度管理我們的數字，以實現我們認為的那種增長談到，比我們過去不得不做的多一點。

Is it just a simple Gary, is limiting the on-balance sheet mortgage production? I mean that would seemingly -- if you have decent growth elsewhere and you just put a lot less mortgages on, that would seemingly we get you like 6% or 7% point-to-point growth on the loan book. I mean is that -- is it that simple? Or is it more nuanced than that?

這只是一個簡單的加里，是在限制資產負債表上的抵押貸款生產嗎？我的意思是，這似乎——如果你在其他地方有不錯的增長，而你只是減少抵押貸款，那麼我們似乎會讓你在貸款賬簿上獲得 6% 或 7% 的點對點增長。我的意思是——就這麼簡單嗎？還是比這更微妙？

Mike, we started in '22, back in the middle of the year to do just that on the mortgage book. We still have some funding that's coming from that because we're in a -- we're a pretty big construction player. So commitments that we had made back in '21, we're funding all during '22, even though we weren't still originating in that space.

邁克，我們從 22 年開始，在年中回到抵押貸款簿上。我們仍然有一些資金來自於此，因為我們處於 - 我們是一個非常大的建築公司。因此，我們在 21 年做出的承諾，我們在 22 年期間一直在提供資金，即使我們還沒有起源於那個領域。

But -- so rest assured that we have backed off and made some product adjustment (inaudible) and we're back to about a 70% sales versus portfolio mix, and we had allowed ourselves to get off of that when the pricing was so forth, Fannie and Freddie back in the second quarter of last year, and we won't be doing that this year.

但是——所以請放心，我們已經退縮並進行了一些產品調整（聽不清），我們回到了大約 70% 的銷售額與投資組合組合，當定價如此之高時，我們允許自己擺脫這種情況，房利美和房地美在去年第二季度回歸，今年我們不會這樣做。

Same thing on the consumer side. We had a really great consumer growth through the first 3 quarters, and then we put the TAMs on it, mostly around indirect, which is what that portfolio is designed to do. And we really haven't grown that book in any meaningful way over the last 4 months.

消費者方面也是如此。在前 3 個季度，我們的消費者增長非常好，然後我們將 TAM 放在上面，主要是間接的，這就是該投資組合的目的。在過去的 4 個月裡，我們真的沒有以任何有意義的方式發展這本書。

We are creating our capacity for balance sheet growth through commercial. But having said that, if we just let commercial run, given the team we've got in the market the way it is now, we might be surprised at how much growth we see just through the commercial channel. So we will be managing our effort a little more so in '23 to make sure that we don't outrun our appetite and get over our skis too much. That's the right side of the balance sheet catch up with the left side.

我們正在通過商業創造資產負債表增長的能力。但話雖如此，如果我們只是讓商業運行，考慮到我們現在進入市場的團隊，我們可能會對僅通過商業渠道看到的增長量感到驚訝。因此，我們將在 23 年更加努力地管理我們的努力，以確保我們不會超出我們的胃口並過度滑雪。那是資產負債表的右側趕上了左側。

Got it. And then just lastly for me. As we look to next year, based on the guide you provided should still be generating pretty good capital internally. I think the back half of this year will probably be the low point on capital for you guys, especially if the balance sheet growth kind of moderates. I'm just thinking -- wondering are you seeing similar M&A headwinds? And does that free up maybe some capacity to do some buybacks in '23? Or just any updates on the capital plan would be great.

知道了。最後對我來說。展望明年，根據您提供的指南，我們應該仍會在內部產生相當可觀的資本。我認為今年下半年可能是你們資本的低谷，尤其是在資產負債表增長放緩的情況下。我只是在想——想知道你是否看到類似的併購逆風？這是否釋放了一些在 23 年進行回購的能力？或者只是資本計劃的任何更新都會很棒。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Yes, it does create that kind of capacity. But we've turned the corner here on capital. So we're going to let this chug most likely for a while here and kind of let that grow a bit. But obviously, opportunistically, if it makes sense.

是的。謝謝，邁克。是的，它確實創造了那種能力。但我們已經在資本方面扭轉了局面。因此，我們很可能會讓這種情況在這裡持續一段時間，然後讓它增長一點。但顯然，機會主義，如果它有意義的話。

We've got over -- sorry, 1 million of approved shares for our buyback plan that we could deploy if it made sense at the time. But we don't have dividend plans right now to do that at this point. So we'll just monitor the market.

我們已經完成了 - 抱歉，如果當時有意義的話，我們可以部署 100 萬股用於我們回購計劃的批准股票。但我們目前沒有股息計劃來做到這一點。所以我們只會監控市場。

Mike, over time, we've always said we play a balance for our card on equity utilization. We want enough there to support organic growth. We want to provide the dividends and shareholder return through that vehicle and buybacks are part of that shareholder equation.

邁克，隨著時間的推移，我們一直說我們在股權利用方面保持平衡。我們希望那裡有足夠的資源來支持有機增長。我們希望通過該工具提供股息和股東回報，回購是股東等式的一部分。

With the balance sheet growth that we've seen right now, it feels like balance sheet -- organic balance sheet support gets a bit of a priority, but it didn't change the scorecard timing of how we're using our capital and we're fully deployed right now.

隨著我們現在看到的資產負債表的增長，感覺就像資產負債表——有機資產負債表支持得到了優先考慮，但這並沒有改變我們如何使用我們的資本的記分卡時間，我們現在已全面部署。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question goes to Christopher Marinac of Janney Montgomery Scott.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題是 Janney Montgomery Scott 的 Christopher Marinac。

So Gary and Paul, I wanted to kind of go back to some of the comments I think you were making at the beginning of the call about loan yield repricing and just better understand the kind of betas on the loan side and maybe even earning assets, too. Is there an opportunity for those to be stronger this next quarter or 2? And do you think that will look differently as this year shapes up?

所以加里和保羅，我想回到我認為你在電話會議開始時就貸款收益率重新定價所做的一些評論，只是更好地了解貸款方面的貝塔類型，甚至可能賺取資產，也。這些人是否有機會在下個季度或第二個季度變得更強大？你認為今年情況會有所不同嗎？

Yes. Good question, Chris. There is some possibility for that, but there's some variables in there, right? So on the loan side, generally, we have a lag in terms of the repricing on that because the -- our variable or floating rate loans reprice first of each month. So the action that happened in December, we won't feel until January and so on.

是的。問得好，克里斯。有一些可能性，但那裡有一些變數，對吧？因此，在貸款方面，一般來說，我們在重新定價方面存在滯後，因為我們的可變或浮動利率貸款在每個月的第一天重新定價。所以 12 月發生的行動，我們要等到 1 月才會感覺到。

So a lot happened in that fourth quarter from the Fed and it will take a little while for that to kind of fully come through in those yields. So that's a tailwind for us head in the 1Q here. Part of it will depend on what happens in the C&I book. We're still at pretty low utilization. They came up a little bit during the year, but not that much. So if we get more action there, same thing in the HELOCs and such that are the higher yielding floating rate type stuff, that could be a positive for us.

因此，美聯儲在第四季度發生了很多事情，需要一段時間才能完全體現在這些收益率上。所以這對我們在第一季度的發展來說是一個順風。其中一部分將取決於 C&I 書中發生的事情。我們的利用率仍然很低。他們在這一年裡出現了一點點，但沒有那麼多。因此，如果我們在那裡採取更多行動，在 HELOC 中採取同樣的行動，以及收益率更高的浮動利率類型的東西，這對我們來說可能是積極的。

We're not going to count on it. If it comes great, but that's where we could get some incremental lift because we're pretty low on those utilizations today.

我們不會指望它。如果它來得很好，但那是我們可以獲得一些增量提升的地方，因為我們今天的利用率很低。

On the flip side, just a reminder, we do have that swap that we had done a couple of years ago. So that -- now that we're -- where we are on LIBOR. That's a little bit of a drag, and that's why our loan yields and overall earning asset yields drive just a touch. I think it was about 7 bps in the fourth quarter there.

另一方面，提醒一下，我們確實進行了幾年前的交換。所以——現在我們——我們在 LIBOR 上的位置。這有點拖累，這就是為什麼我們的貸款收益率和整體收益資產收益率只是略微推動。我認為第四季度大約是 7 個基點。

So -- but if we do get to the point here where the Fed pauses and rates can stabilize, we will have hit our max impact on that. And then that's future upside, honestly. If rates can start to normalize, either late '23 or into '24 and so on, that will start to come back. And then we'll get extra lift coming down on that side on the yield or on the asset yield side as well.

所以 - 但如果我們真的到了美聯儲暫停利率可以穩定的地步，我們將對此產生最大影響。老實說，這就是未來的好處。如果利率可以開始正常化，無論是 23 年底還是 24 年等等，那將開始回歸。然後我們將在收益率或資產收益率方面獲得額外的提升。

That's well as said, Paul, if there's a silver lining on the current situation, it's just that. I know when we watched the quarter unfold, our loan betas were outrunning our deposit betas in October. They got closer in November and then they get almost to neutral. But what really -- in December, but really changed for December was when -- now we were getting full throat of the Federal Home Loan Bank activity and from just a funding beta regardless of the source of the funds, all of a sudden, we became liability sensitive because of what was going on with the Federal Home Loan Bank rate.

說得好，保羅，如果當前情況有一線希望，那就是。我知道當我們觀察這個季度時，我們的貸款貝塔在 10 月份超過了我們的存款貝塔。他們在 11 月更接近，然後幾乎接近中立。但真正的 - 在 12 月，但真正改變了 12 月的是 - 現在我們正在全面了解聯邦住房貸款銀行的活動，並且無論資金來源如何，突然之間，我們都只是一個融資測試版，我們由於聯邦住房貸款銀行利率的變化，它變得對責任敏感。

And as Paul mentioned, the swap but was now more in play and so forth. So December was kind of a change month for us on the overall balance sheet, and that's upside going forward is dramatic or as quickly as it showed up it can evaporate as Fed behavior changes.

正如保羅所提到的，交換現在更多地在發揮作用等等。因此，12 月對我們的整體資產負債表來說是一個變化的月份，而且這種上升趨勢是巨大的，或者隨著美聯儲行為的變化而消失。

No, that's great background. And that all makes complete sense. I mean my thinking was kind of a big picture, you have still a lot of advantages for you. You still have access to a bunch of liquidity. Your debt is not high by any means, it's kind of stable from last quarter and you have the good pricing benefits that we just talked about.

不，那是偉大的背景。這一切都是完全有道理的。我的意思是我的想法是一個大局，你仍然有很多優勢。您仍然可以獲得大量流動性。你的債務無論如何都不高，從上個季度開始就穩定了，而且你有我們剛才談到的良好的定價優勢。

Do you have a sense, even though I know it's early to call the whole cycle for the rate move. Would the betas kind of come in high 20s, low 30s, I mean I think you made comments in prior calls. I'm just curious if your thinking is any different in terms of the cumulative beta as you look out a few more quarters?

你有沒有感覺，儘管我知道現在將整個週期稱為利率變動還為時過早。 Beta 會在 20 多歲、30 多歲之間出現嗎，我的意思是我認為你在之前的電話中發表了評論。我只是很好奇，當您再觀察幾個季度時，您對累積 Beta 的想法是否有任何不同？

Yes. I think we've always talked about 30s. And we're still in that range. At this point, though, the way the fourth quarter played out, it might be mid- to higher 30s versus the low 30s that we were originally thinking. But we're still in that range.

是的。我想我們一直在談論 30 多歲。我們仍然在那個範圍內。不過，在這一點上，第四節的結果可能是 30 多歲的中高點，而不是我們原先設想的 30 多歲的低點。但我們仍然在那個範圍內。

And one way to break it down, Chris, that I've been looking at, if you just look at the big piles of our deposits there, right? We've got $2 billion of savings and EDAs that don't really move. They haven't moved. We don't plan to move on. So effectively a zero beta there.

克里斯，我一直在研究的一種分解方法，如果你只看我們在那裡的大堆存款，對嗎？我們有 20 億美元的儲蓄和 EDA 並沒有真正動起來。他們沒有動過。我們不打算繼續前進。那裡實際上是零貝塔。

We've got $1 billion of our time deposits. Full cycle that will probably have a 30% to 40% beta once we're all set and done with the specials and promos kind of driving that. And then we've got about $2 billion of our money market accounts between wealth and business and up funds and things like that, as well as retail and the retail piece hasn't really moved. That's our high beta, right? So that's going to be 60% to 75% of beta by the time we're done with this.

我們有 10 億美元的定期存款。一旦我們準備好並完成特價和促銷活動，整個週期可能會有 30% 到 40% 的 beta。然後我們有大約 20 億美元的貨幣市場賬戶，介於財富和商業之間，以及向上基金和類似的東西，以及零售和零售部分並沒有真正移動。那是我們的高貝塔值，對吧？因此，到我們完成此操作時，這將是測試版的 60% 到 75%。

So you blend that all together in the $5 billion of those deposits, excluding our broker, and that's a 30% to 40% blend but then you throw in our interest-bearing and we're in the, call it, back down to the 30% range. So -- and then off to the side, obviously, it would be our other funding sources, whether it's FHLB, broker deposits, and those are high beta things. So that's what drives up our overall cost of funds like we saw here in the fourth quarter.

因此，您將所有這些混合在 50 億美元的存款中，不包括我們的經紀人，這是 30% 到 40% 的混合，但隨後您投入我們的利息，我們在，稱之為，回到30% 的範圍。所以——然後放在一邊，顯然，這將是我們的其他資金來源，無論是 FHLB、經紀人存款，還是高貝塔值的東西。所以這就是我們在第四季度看到的那樣推高我們的整體資金成本的原因。

And we've been making concerted efforts to grow the deposit base, our core deposits. We had higher-than-anticipated loan growth in the quarter. So we weren't able to eat into the FHLB like we would have liked, but we're going to keep pushing core deposit growth, and that will get better as time goes on here, and we'll get full upside on the FHLB pay downs as they come through.

我們一直在齊心協力擴大存款基礎，即我們的核心存款。本季度我們的貸款增長高於預期。因此，我們無法像我們希望的那樣吞噬 FHLB，但我們將繼續推動核心存款增長，隨著時間的推移，情況會變得更好，我們將在 FHLB 上獲得全面上漲在他們通過時付清。

Got it. Thanks for all the detail. And then my last question just as a reminder about the cash flow that you get from the investment portfolio, whether it's quarterly or annual however you think about it?

知道了。感謝所有的細節。然後我的最後一個問題只是提醒您從投資組合中獲得的現金流量，無論是季度還是年度，無論您如何看待它？

Yes. I think we're around $75 million-ish per year. We're still in that range at the current -- in the current environment, and we do plan to roll off. But we also, like I mentioned in my opening comments earlier, when the opportunities come up, we're taking advantage of them. So we exited about half of our equity book for some very nice gains -- cumulative gains of about $13 million from when we bought them. And we enjoyed the dividend yields while they were good.

是的。我認為我們每年的收入約為 7500 萬美元。我們目前仍處於該範圍內 - 在當前環境中，我們確實計劃推出。但我們也像我之前在開場白中提到的那樣，當機會出現時，我們正在利用它們。因此，我們退出了大約一半的股票賬簿以獲得一些非常可觀的收益——從我們購買它們時累計收益約 1300 萬美元。我們享受了良好的股息收益率。

But those -- the ones we exited were all below our incremental borrowing costs. So we got out of those, and that just helps our NIM go forward.

但是那些 - 我們退出的那些都低於我們的增量借貸成本。所以我們擺脫了這些，這有助於我們的 NIM 向前發展。

Same thing on the bond book. There are here and there are opportunities that come up, bond here and bond there that we're not going to get a gain off of it, which is okay. But again, the yield is below our incremental borrowing, so we can exit that and not take a direct P&L hit and deployed into some NIM accretion. It's a small stuff here and there, but every little bit is helping.

債券簿上也是一樣。這裡有機會出現，在這里和那裡建立聯繫，我們不會從中獲益，這沒關係。但同樣，收益率低於我們的增量借款，因此我們可以退出，而不是直接損益和部署到一些 NIM 增長中。這是一個小東西，但每一點都有幫助。

Sure. And then also had a positive move on the AOCI and tangible book, obviously,

當然。然後在 AOCI 和有形書籍上也有積極的舉措，顯然，

Correct. Correct. Yes, that's right.

正確的。正確的。恩，那就對了。

And we have a follow-up question from Brendan Nosal of Piper Sandler.

Piper Sandler 的 Brendan Nosal 提出了後續問題。

You there, Brendan?

你在嗎，布倫丹？

Sorry about that, my apologies. Just some clarification on a few of the items you mentioned, Gary. The earning [accident] growth of 5%, is that full year over full year? Or is that off the 4Q '22 base into 4Q '23?

對不起，我很抱歉。加里，只是對你提到的一些項目進行一些澄清。 5% 的收入 [意外] 增長是全年的增幅嗎？還是從 4Q '22 基地進入 4Q '23？

12/31 to 12/31, the average growth would be much better than that. Loans would probably be another 1% above that, but securities will bring down at least 1%.

12/31 到 12/31，平均增長會比這好很多。貸款可能會再高出 1%，但證券至少會降低 1%。

Yes. That's perfect and super helpful clarification. Then just on the cost outlook. I think you said 3% to 5%. I mean, kind of the midpoint of that suggests that the run rate would kind of hold around the fourth quarter level, it's not even a little bit better. Just can you talk a bit the about some of the leverage you've had throughout the year to kind of hold that cost run rate roughly in line with the fourth quarter?

是的。這是完美且非常有用的澄清。然後只是關於成本前景。我想你說的是 3% 到 5%。我的意思是，這有點中點表明運行率會保持在第四季度的水平左右，甚至不會好一點。你能談談你全年擁有的一些槓桿作用，可以使成本運行率大致與第四季度保持一致嗎？

Sure. I might have misspoke. I actually had 3.5% relative to the growth range for the year. We have some opportunities from a cost perspective as we rightsize a few segments of our organization and acknowledge the situation that we're in and some projects that are a little less crucial going forward might be put on a partial delay and so forth.

當然。我可能說錯了。相對於當年的增長范圍，我實際上有 3.5%。從成本的角度來看，我們有一些機會，因為我們調整了我們組織的幾個部分，並承認我們所處的情況，一些不太重要的項目可能會被部分推遲等等。

So nothing that's going to change the strategic or the direction of the organization, but the normal trimming that you will do with throughout the organization and throughout business groups where -- where it's appropriate to be doing. So that, combined with just our normal good diligence, but it's kind of in our DNA. We're always looking for the lease value added 2% or 3% of what we're doing and how to redeploy it to the best or the next 2% or 3%, and that's still important to our organization.

因此，沒有什麼會改變組織的戰略或方向，而是您將在整個組織和整個業務組中進行的正常調整——在適當的地方進行。所以，再加上我們正常的勤奮，但它有點在我們的 DNA 中。我們一直在尋找租賃增值的 2% 或 3%，以及如何將其重新部署到最佳或接下來的 2% 或 3%，這對我們的組織仍然很重要。

I think we got 4.6% up over the prior year. That's probably going to be a pretty reasonable number versus what the industry as a whole delivers year-over-year. That would be an indication that I would expect we'd be on the better side of that average.

我認為我們比上一年增長了 4.6%。與整個行業的同比增長相比，這可能是一個相當合理的數字。這表明我預計我們會比平均水平更好。

(Operator Instructions) And we have another follow-up from Michael Perito of KBW.

（操作員說明）我們還有來自 KBW 的 Michael Perito 的另一個跟進。

And I apologize if this was in Gary's guide, and I just missed it. But just on the tax rate for 2023, should we be assuming more something in line with the full year versus the fourth quarter? It looked like the fourth quarter was a bit lower than normal?

如果這在 Gary 的指南中，我很抱歉，我只是錯過了它。但僅就 2023 年的稅率而言，我們是否應該假設更多符合全年而不是第四季度的稅率？第四季度好像比平時少了點？

Yes. I mean you can use a 20% effective tax rate estimate, and it will be plus or minus from there. It won't change much.

是的。我的意思是你可以使用 20% 的有效稅率估算值，它會是正負值。它不會有太大變化。

We have no further questions. I'll hand back to Gary Small for any closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我會把任何結束語交還給 Gary Small。

Thank you. And I do have a closing comment or maybe something to just keep in mind for perspective.

謝謝。我確實有一個結束評論，或者可能只是為了觀點而記住一些事情。

I would suspect that over the next 12 to 24 months, inflation is going to resolve itself or at least to the amount of distraction we currently are involved with. And the inverted yield curve will abate and the cost of funds curve will return to something a bit more normal for us. And that will be a good day. However, the business that we booked over in '22, the 20% growth clients that we brought on board, the clients we've served, that's going to be with us for the next 7 to 10 years. And the value that, that will bring to the organization over that period of time, I think, will outweigh the bumps that we're experiencing right now.

我懷疑在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內，通貨膨脹將自行解決，或者至少會解決我們目前所涉及的分心問題。反向收益率曲線將減弱，資金成本曲線將恢復到對我們來說更正常的水平。那將是美好的一天。然而，我們在 22 年預訂的業務，我們帶來的 20% 增長的客戶，我們服務過的客戶，將在未來 7 到 10 年與我們同在。我認為，在那段時間裡給組織帶來的價值將超過我們現在正在經歷的顛簸。

And just want you to understand. We keep our eyes on the horizon, although we're staring right in the weeds as well. But that is kind of the way we view the business. We're trying to take the steps that add the most value for the shareholder and the organization over time and balance that with some of the issues of the day. And that's what we're busily engaged with right now.

只是想讓你明白。我們一直盯著地平線，儘管我們也在盯著雜草。但這就是我們看待業務的方式。隨著時間的推移，我們正在努力採取為股東和組織增加最大價值的步驟，並在這與當今的一些問題之間取得平衡。這就是我們現在正忙於處理的事情。

Thank you all for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。