Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Pebblebrook Hotel Trust third-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Pebblebrook Hotel Trust 第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明） 請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Raymond Martz, Co-President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人、聯合總裁兼財務長 Raymond Martz。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Donna, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third-quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast. Joining me today is Jon Bortz, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Fisher, our Co-President and Chief Investment Officer.

謝謝你，唐娜，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天加入我的是我們的董事長兼執行長喬恩‧博茨 (Jon Bortz)；以及我們的聯合總裁兼首席投資長 Tom Fisher。

Before we begin, please note that today's comments are effective only for today, November 8, 2024. Our comments may include forward-looking statements as defined under federal securities laws, and actual results could differ materially from those discussed today. For a comprehensive analysis of potential risks, please consult our most recent SEC filings and visit our website for detailed reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures mentioned today.

在開始之前，請注意，今天的評論僅在今天（2024 年 11 月 8 日）有效。我們的評論可能包括聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與今天討論的結果有重大差異。如需對潛在風險進行全面分析，請查閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，並造訪我們的網站，以了解今天提到的任何非 GAAP 財務指標的詳細對帳資訊。

Okay. We have a lot to cover today, so let's move to our third-quarter results. We are pleased to report that despite the negative impact of two named storms on several properties this quarter, our third-quarter hotel operating results were in line with our outlook. RevPAR growth was driven by occupancy increases at both our urban and resort properties, market share recovery, and gains at many of our recently redeveloped properties.

好的。今天我們有很多內容要討論，所以讓我們來看看第三季的業績。我們很高興地報告，儘管本季兩場命名的風暴對幾家酒店造成了負面影響，但我們第三季度的酒店經營業績與我們的預期相符。每間可用客房收入的增長是由我們的城市和度假村物業的入住率增加、市場份額的恢復以及我們最近重新開發的許多物業的增長所推動的。

The ongoing recovery of business groups and transient demand along with strong resort and urban weekend leisure travel fueled our occupancy gains even as the broader industry experienced a continued normalizing of leisure travel trends. In the third quarter, same-property RevPAR increased by 2.2%, landing squarely in the middle of our outlook range and would have exceeded 2.4% if not for the impact of the hurricanes.

儘管整個行業經歷了休閒旅遊趨勢的持續正常化，但商業團體的持續復甦和短暫的需求以及強勁的度假勝地和城市週末休閒旅遊推動了我們的入住率增長。第三季度，同類物業的 RevPAR 成長了 2.2%，正好落在我們預測範圍的中間，如果沒有颶風的影響，這一數字將超過 2.4%。

Our outperformance significantly outpaced the industry's RevPAR growth of 0.9% and a 0.5% gain in our specific market, highlighting our portfolio's success in growing market share. This growth is largely driven by our recently redeveloped and renovated properties and the strong recovery of our urban markets. Total RevPAR rose by 2.7%, propelled by increased occupancy and strong out-of-room spending, which grew 3.8%.

我們的表現顯著超過了該行業 0.9% 的 RevPAR 增長以及特定市場 0.5% 的增長，凸顯了我們的投資組合在不斷增長的市場份額方面所取得的成功。這一增長主要是由我們最近重新開發和翻新的物業以及城市市場的強勁復甦所推動的。受入住率增加和客房外支出強勁（成長 3.8%）的推動，每間可用客房總收入成長 2.7%。

These positive trends more than offset the approximate 30-basis-point negative impact from the storm. Our same-property hotel EBITDA reached $110.8 million, comfortably in the middle of our outlook range, even after absorbing an approximate $1.2 million negative impact from the two named storms. It is important to note that while LaPlaya was the most significantly affected property by the storms, it is excluded from our same-property reporting due to its restoration following Hurricane Ian.

這些正面趨勢足以抵消風暴帶來的約 30 個基點的負面影響。即使在吸收了兩場指定風暴約 120 萬美元的負面影響之後，我們的同一家酒店 EBITDA 仍達到 1.108 億美元，處於我們的展望範圍的中間位置。值得注意的是，雖然拉普拉亞是受風暴影響最嚴重的房產，但由於其在颶風伊恩之後進行了修復，因此被排除在我們的同類房產報告之外。

We're also pleased to report that adjusted EBITDA exceeded the midpoint of our Q3 outlook by $8.7 million and surpassed the top end by $6.2 million. Adjusted FFO beat the midpoint of our outlook by $9.7 million or $0.08 per share despite an estimated $1.5 million negative impact from Hurricanes Debbie and Helene. This outperformance was largely due to $7.1 million in business interruption proceeds relating to LaPlaya from Hurricane Ian, which we hadn't factored into our prior Q3 guidance. We had previously anticipated $2.7 million in BI proceeds in the fourth quarter, which we no longer expect.

我們也很高興地報告，調整後的 EBITDA 超出了我們第三季預期中位數 870 萬美元，超出了上限 620 萬美元。儘管颶風黛比和海倫造成了 150 萬美元的負面影響，但調整後的 FFO 超出了我們預期的中位數 970 萬美元，即每股 0.08 美元。這一優異表現主要是由於颶風伊恩造成的 LaPlaya 業務中斷收益為 710 萬美元，我們沒有將其納入先前第三季度的指導中。我們之前預計第四季度 BI 收益將達到 270 萬美元，但現在我們不再預期這一結果。

Our strongest urban markets in the third quarter were Chicago, San Diego, and Boston. These cities benefited from active convention calendars, improved weekday business travel, and the ongoing return of leisure demand. Additionally, our urban Portland properties showed a promising 18% increase in occupancy compared to the same quarter last year.

第三季我們最強勁的城市市場是芝加哥、聖地牙哥和波士頓。這些城市受益於活躍的會議日曆、工作日商務旅行的改善以及休閒需求的持續回升。此外，與去年同期相比，我們波特蘭市區物業的入住率預計將增加 18%。

We're optimistic that this represents the beginning of a sustainable recovery in this late to recover market. Our urban properties' occupancy increased by 3.7% year over year in Q3. Urban weekend occupancy rose by 3.9%, exceeding 85%, bolstered by a sustained return of leisure travel to cities.

我們樂觀地認為，這代表著復甦較晚的市場可持續復甦的開始。第三季度，我們的城市物業入住率年增3.7%。受休閒旅遊持續回歸城市的推動，城市週末入住率成長 3.9%，超過 85%。

Urban weekday occupancy grew by 3.8% year over year to 77.8%, reflecting a continued healthy recovery in group and transient business demand and a strong convention calendar in a number of our markets. Out-of-room spending remained healthy, resulting in a 2.7% increase in urban total RevPAR.

城市工作日入住率年增 3.8%，達到 77.8%，反映出團體和臨時業務需求的持續健康復甦以及我們多個市場的強勁會議日程。室外支出保持健康，導致城市總 RevPAR 成長 2.7%。

Demand at all of our Southeast properties were impacted by Hurricane Debbie in early August and more significantly by Hurricane Helene in late September. While LaPlaya Beach reported in Naples a modest physical damage, it's important to note that storms historically lead to cancellations and reduced bookings both before and after they hit, which explains a broader impact on our Southeast properties.

我們東南部所有物業的需求都受到八月初黛比颶風的影響，九月底颶風海倫的影響更為嚴重。雖然拉普拉亞海灘在那不勒斯報告了適度的物理損壞，但值得注意的是，歷史上風暴會導致風暴襲擊前後的預訂取消和減少，這解釋了對我們東南部房產的更廣泛影響。

In our resort segment specifically, despite the impact of the named storms, same-property occupancy climbed by 5.9% year over year, reaching 74.3%. Resort weekday occupancy improved by 6.7% and resort weekday occupancy grew by 5.2%. These are very encouraging trends that highlight the benefits of our significant capital reinvestments, making our properties more appealing to both group and leisure travelers and allowing us to gain meaningful market share.

具體來說，在我們的度假村領域，儘管受到上述風暴的影響，同一物業的入住率仍同比增長 5.9%，達到 74.3%。度假村平日入住率提高了 6.7%，度假村平日入住率增加了 5.2%。這些都是非常令人鼓舞的趨勢，凸顯了我們大量資本再投資的好處，使我們的酒店對團體和休閒旅行者更具吸引力，並使我們能夠獲得有意義的市場份額。

A key driver of our resort's weekday occupancy growth was the over 10% increase in group demand, led by a surge in the business group and guest segment specifically. While business group demand at our resort typically comes at a lower ADR and weekend leisure bookings, potentially given the impression of declining property ADRs, the business group segment generates substantial out-of-room revenue particularly in food and beverage and frequently drives more total revenue and EBITDA per occupied room than transient segments. For example, in Q3, our same-property resort ADR declined by 4.8% compared to the prior-year period primarily due to a higher mix of business group bookings. Excluding the business group, our resort ADR declined by only 1.9%, highlighting the impact of demand mixes on ADR, specifically a higher portion of the business group in this case. This also reflects the normalization of leisure weekend ADR, which appears to be stabilizing.

我們度假村平日入住率成長的一個關鍵驅動因素是團體需求增加了 10% 以上，特別是商務團體和賓客群體的激增。雖然我們度假村的商務團體需求通常來自較低的ADR 和週末休閒預訂，可能會造成酒店ADR 下降的印象，但商務團體部門產生了大量的客房外收入，特別是在餐飲方面，並且經常帶動更多的總收入每個佔用房間的 EBITDA 和 EBITDA 都高於臨時段。例如，在第三季度，我們的同飯店度假村平均房價較去年同期下降了 4.8%，這主要是由於企業團體預訂的組合增加。不包括該業務組，我們的度假村 ADR 僅下降 1.9%，凸顯了需求組合對 ADR 的影響，特別是在本例中業務組的較高部分。這也反映出休閒週末ADR的正常化，似乎正在趨於穩定。

Strong demand for business groups and the resulting shift in our customer mix contributed to an overall increase in same-property resort total RevPAR of 2.5%, significantly higher than the 0.8% increase in same-property resort RevPAR alone. Across our total same-property portfolio in the third quarter, group room nights grew by 9.1% year over year with ADR increasing 1.9%, driving a total group revenue increase of 11.2%. Group revenue accounted for about 24% of total room revenue in the quarter. Leisure demand also strengthened with room nights up 2.8% year over year across the portfolio, though transient revenue remained roughly flat. This growth was supported by higher bookings through consortia partnerships with firms like Capital One and American Express as well as improving demand from international wholesale markets. However, international inbound demand still remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

對商業團體的強勁需求以及由此帶來的客戶結構轉變，導致同酒店度假村總 RevPAR 整體增長 2.5%，顯著高於同酒店度假村 RevPAR 0.8% 的增幅。在第三季我們的同一飯店整體投資組合中，團體間夜數年增 9.1%，平均房價成長 1.9%，帶動集團總營收成長 11.2%。該季度集團收入約佔客房總收入的24%。休閒需求也有所增強，整個投資組合的間夜數年增 2.8%，但短暫收入仍大致持平。這一增長得益於與第一資本（Capital One）和美國運通（American Express）等公司的財團合作帶來的預訂量增加以及國際批發市場需求的增加。然而，國際入境需求仍遠低於疫情前的水準。

Turning to profitability, our intense focus on efficiency and cost reduction across all departments continue to yield positive results. Total same-property hotel expenses before fixed expenses such as real estate taxes and insurance costs increased by 3.2%, while same-property occupancy grew by 4.2%. This means we are able to decrease cost per occupied room, again, in the third quarter. Year to date, total same-property hotel expenses have increased by just 2.7% with occupancy up 3.7%.

談到獲利能力，我們對所有部門的效率和成本降低的高度關注繼續產生積極的成果。扣除房地產稅和保險費用等固定費用前的同酒店酒店總支出增長了 3.2%，同酒店入住率增長了 4.2%。這意味著我們能夠在第三季再次降低每個佔用房間的成本。今年迄今為止，同酒店的總支出僅增加了 2.7%，而入住率則增加了 3.7%。

Our aggressive approach to efficiency and best practices has effectively mitigated inflationary pressures, including wages and benefits. These continuous and relentless efforts position us well to manage anticipated wage and benefit cost pressures in 2025 and beyond.

我們對效率和最佳實踐的積極態度有效地減輕了通貨膨脹壓力，包括工資和福利。這些持續不懈的努力使我們能夠很好地管理 2025 年及以後的預期薪資和福利成本壓力。

Regarding capital investments, we rebranded our Delfina Santa Monica Hotel as the Hyatt Centric on September 18 with a $16 million property refresh already underway and expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year. The brand transition temporarily disrupted property performance in September, and we expect this impact to continue significantly into Q4. However, as we realign customer awareness and marketing programs with the new Hyatt brand, we believe this integration will drive a strong rebound once fully embedded into the Hyatt system.

在資本投資方面，我們於 9 月 18 日將 Delfina Santa Monica 酒店更名為 Hyatt Centric，耗資 1,600 萬美元的物業翻新工程已經開始，預計將於明年第一季完成。品牌轉型暫時擾亂了 9 月的房地產業績，我們預計這種影響將持續到第四季。然而，隨著我們根據新的凱悅品牌重新調整客戶意識和行銷計劃，我們相信，一旦完全融入凱悅系統，這種整合將推動強勁反彈。

Net of the key money provided by Hyatt, we expect to invest $90 million to $95 million in capital projects across our portfolio this year. Over the last several years, we have completed major redevelopments and repositioned at nearly all of our properties. We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars to dramatically enhance our portfolio's quality and elevate properties market position. While we've already made substantial investments, the majority of the upside remains to be realized.

在扣除凱悅提供的關鍵資金後，我們預計今年將在我們的投資組合中投資 9,000 萬至 9,500 萬美元的資本項目。在過去的幾年裡，我們幾乎所有的物業都完成了重大的重建和重新定位。我們已投資數億美元來大幅提高投資組合的品質並提升房地產市場地位。雖然我們已經進行了大量投資，但大部分優勢仍有待實現。

We're already seeing incremental returns from these investments with many of our recently redeveloped properties outperforming during the quarter and year to date. We expect this positive momentum to continue as these properties further ramp up their performance. Now that our major capital investment program is largely complete, we're poised for significantly lower CapEx over the next few years.

我們已經看到這些投資的增量回報，我們最近重新開發的許多房產在本季和今年迄今表現出色。我們預計，隨著這些物業的業績進一步提升，這種積極勢頭將持續下去。現在我們的主要資本投資計劃已基本完成，我們準備在未來幾年內大幅降低資本支出。

Moving on to the restoration of LaPlaya, as we detailed in our Hurricane Milton press release last week, the resort experienced property damage from Hurricane Helene on September 26 and from Milton on October 9. The damage was primarily due to storm surge, water and sand intrusion affected approximately 20 ground-floor guestrooms in the 79-room beach house building and the resort's pool complex. Fortunately, the majority of the resort including the Gulf Tower and Bay Tower, which together house 110 guest rooms, sustained minimal damage.

接下來是拉普拉亞的恢復，正如我們在上週的颶風米爾頓新聞稿中詳細介紹的那樣，該度假村在9 月26 日的颶風海倫和10 月9 日的米爾頓颶風中遭受了財產損失。損壞的主要原因是風暴潮、水和沙子的入侵，影響了這棟擁有 79 間客房的海濱別墅大樓和度假村泳池綜合體中約 20 間底層客房。幸運的是，度假村的大部分區域（包括共有 110 間客房的海灣塔和海灣塔）受到的損壞極小。

Our previous capital investments in LaPlaya and our other Southeast properties have significantly enhanced their storm resilience, minimizing damage and reducing the time needed to restore operations after such events. And we're pleased to report that the Gulf Tower and Bay Tower fully reopened on November 1 after being closed. We first evacuated and closed the day before Hurricane Milton in Florida on October 9. Thanks to our team's extensive preparation efforts, including positioning a third-party remediation team nearby, we were able to begin cleanup and repairs immediately after the storms. We are targeting to reopening our pools between now and the end of the year as soon as the new pool equipment arrives.

我們先前對拉普拉亞和其他東南部物業的資本投資顯著增強了它們的風暴抵禦能力，最大限度地減少了損失並減少了此類事件後恢復營運所需的時間。我們很高興地報告，海灣塔和海灣塔在關閉後於 11 月 1 日全面重新開放。10 月 9 日佛羅裡達州颶風米爾頓的前一天，我們首先進行了疏散並關閉。由於我們團隊的大量準備工作，包括在附近部署第三方修復小組，我們能夠在暴風雨過後立即開始清理和修復工作。我們的目標是從現在到今年年底，一旦新的泳池設備到達，就重新開放我們的泳池。

We're also targeting to reopen the upper floors of the beach house in the next few months and complete the ground floor guestrooms by the end of the first quarter of next year. Our ability to achieve these targets is based upon receiving all necessary governmental approvals in a timely manner and avoiding supply chain delays for construction materials and FF&E. The cost for these repairs and restoration work will be covered by insurance after deductible.

我們還計劃在未來幾個月內重新開放海濱別墅的上層，並在明年第一季末之前完成底層客房的建設。我們實現這些目標的能力取決於及時獲得所有必要的政府批准，並避免建築材料和 FF&E 的供應鏈延遲。這些維修和恢復工作的費用將在扣除免賠額後由保險承擔。

Turning to our revised outlook for the fourth quarter in 2024, we estimate that the combined impact of Hurricane Helene and Milton will reduce Q4 same-property RevPAR by approximately 100 basis points, resulting in a $2.5 million decrease in same-property hotel EBITDA. Please note that these same property numbers exclude LaPlaya, which is not part of our same-property reporting this year.

談到我們對 2024 年第四季的修訂後展望，我們估計颶風海倫和米爾頓的綜合影響將使第四季度同酒店的 RevPAR 減少約 100 個基點，導致同酒店 EBITDA 減少 250 萬美元。請注意，這些相同的房產數據不包括 LaPlaya，它不屬於我們今年的相同房產報告的一部分。

When including LaPlaya, we estimate the total negative impact in Q4 from the two hurricanes to be about $10 million on adjusted AFFO and adjusted EBITDA with LaPlaya accounting for $7.5 million of this amount. We also estimate that the Hyatt Centric brand transition will reduce our Q4 RevPAR by approximately 100 basis points, leading to a $1.4 million reduction in same-property hotel EBITDA. So if not for the weather and rebranding impacts, our Q4 RevPAR outlook would be 1% to 3% up.

當包括 LaPlaya 時，我們估計第四季度兩次颶風對調整後 AFFO 和調整後 EBITDA 的整體負面影響約為 1000 萬美元，其中 LaPlaya 佔其中的 750 萬美元。我們還估計，Hyatt Centric 品牌轉型將使我們第四季的 RevPAR 降低約 100 個基點，導致同一家酒店的 EBITDA 減少 140 萬美元。因此，如果沒有天氣和品牌重塑的影響，我們第四季的 RevPAR 預期將上漲 1% 至 3%。

The remaining $3 million reduction in our Q4 same-property EBITDA outlook is attributed to slightly weaker-than-expected transient demand in several urban markets, including LA, San Francisco, Boston, and Washington, DC. Most of the softness seems to stem from a weaker final week of October and the first week of November, as the election appears to have had a more significant impact on travel than previous presidential elections.

我們在第四季度同地產 EBITDA 前景中剩餘的 300 萬美元減少歸因於洛杉磯、舊金山、波士頓和華盛頓特區等幾個城市市場的臨時需求略弱於預期。大部分疲軟似乎源於 10 月最後一周和 11 月第一周的疲軟，因為這次選舉似乎比之前的總統選舉對旅行產生了更重大的影響。

Shifting now to our balance sheet, we've actively worked on to strengthen our financial position and extend our debt maturities. On October 3, we successfully completed our inaugural issuance of $400 million of attractively priced 6.378 senior unsecured notes maturing in 2029. We used these proceeds to significantly reduce our 2024, '25 and '27 bank term loans. Additionally, on November 4, we announced the extension of the vast majority of our remaining 2025 bank term loan to 2029. We also extended the majority of about $600 million of our $650 million unsecured credit facility from 2027 to 2029.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表，我們積極努力加強我們的財務狀況並延長我們的債務期限。10 月 3 日，我們成功完成了首次發行 4 億美元、價格極具吸引力的 6.378 高級無抵押票據，將於 2029 年到期。我們利用這些收益大幅減少了 2024 年、25 年和 27 年的銀行定期貸款。此外，11 月 4 日，我們宣布將 2025 年剩餘的絕大多數銀行定期貸款延長至 2029 年。我們也將 6.5 億美元無擔保信貸額度中約 6 億美元的大部分從 2027 年延長至 2029 年。

As a result of these refinancing efforts, we have no significant debt maturities until December 2026, and our debt is well structured with a weighted average interest rate of just 4.3%. And finally, as the hotel industry and our portfolio continues to normalize, we made the decision to discontinue the monthly operating update we started during the pandemic. We initiated these updates during the pandemic to provide timely information to our shareholders during a period of significant uncertainty and rapid change. Stepping back from these monthly updates signals our confidence in the improved stability of both the industry and our portfolio.

由於這些再融資努力，我們在 2026 年 12 月之前沒有重大債務到期，而且我們的債務結構良好，加權平均利率僅為 4.3%。最後，隨著酒店業和我們的投資組合繼續正常化，我們決定停止在大流行期間啟動的每月營運更新。我們在大流行期間啟動了這些更新，以便在重大不確定性和快速變化的時期向我們的股東提供及時的資訊。從這些每月更新中退一步表明我們對行業和投資組合穩定性的提高充滿信心。

And with that comprehensive update, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon to provide more details on our hotel operating results and our expectations for the future. Jon?

透過這次全面的更新，我想將電話轉給喬恩，以提供有關我們酒店營運業績和我們對未來的期望的更多詳細資訊。喬恩？

Thanks, Ray. I thought I'd start with a simple evaluation of the industry's performance, provide some further insight on our performance, briefly highlight some of the significant share gains from our redeveloped properties, and then provide some high-level thoughts on 2025 for both the industry and for Pebblebrook. So let's start with the industry.

謝謝，雷。我想我應該從對行業表現的簡單評估開始，對我們的表現提供一些進一步的見解，簡要強調我們重新開發的房產所帶來的一些顯著的份額收益，然後為該行業提供一些關於2025 年的高層想法和佩布爾布魯克。那我們就從產業開始吧。

In Q3, business group demand continued to grow and business transient demand continued to recover as return to office patterns improved. Leisure demand was a little more complicated. While overall leisure demand remained healthy, it was roughly flat year over year. This was partly due to international outbound travel boosted by the Olympics in Paris, outpacing the inbound recovery following the pandemic.

第三季度，隨著復工模式的改善，集團需求持續成長，業務瞬態需求持續復甦。休閒需求稍微複雜一點。雖然整體休閒需求保持健康，但比去年同期大致持平。這在一定程度上是由於巴黎奧運推動了國際出境旅遊的成長，超過了疫情後入境遊的復甦速度。

In addition, the return of leisure demand to the cities, particularly the coastal cities that suffered most during the pandemic, has negatively impacted overall industry resort demand as historical demand patterns normalize. We also continue to see a noticeable difference in demand across price segments with stronger performance at the upper end compared to the mid- to lower-priced segments. We've talked about this before.

此外，隨著歷史需求模式的正常化，休閒需求回歸城市，特別是在疫情期間遭受最嚴重影響的沿海城市，對整體行業度假需求產生了負面影響。我們也持續看到不同價格段的需求有明顯差異，與中低價位段相比，高端市場的表現更強。我們之前已經討論過這個問題。

We believe this is largely due to economic pressures impacting individuals in lower income brackets, where pandemic-related governmental support has largely phased out, personal savings have diminished, and high credit card interest rates, along with inflation have created added financial strain. The STR data reflects these challenges, and we've heard similar comments from companies in many other industries. Encouragingly, employment remains strong and wage increases in this lower income group are solidly outpacing inflation, which should provide support for a better 2025. The unusual aspect of the hotel industry this year, at least from our perspective, is that demand has remained flat despite healthy GDP growth, a trend persisting since April of last year. This suggests that demand patterns changed significantly during and after the pandemic and have been normalizing over the last 18 months.

我們認為，這主要是由於經濟壓力影響了低收入階層的個人，其中與大流行相關的政府支持已基本取消，個人儲蓄減少，信用卡利率高企以及通貨膨脹造成了更大的財務壓力。STR 數據反映了這些挑戰，我們也從許多其他行業的公司聽到了類似的評論。令人鼓舞的是，就業仍然強勁，低收入群體的薪資成長明顯超過了通膨，這將為更好的 2025 年提供支持。至少從我們的角度來看，今年酒店業的不同尋常之處在於，儘管 GDP 健康成長，但需求卻保持平穩，這一趨勢自去年 4 月以來一直持續。這表明需求模式在大流行期間和之後發生了顯著變化，並且在過去 18 個月中趨於正常化。

We believe most of this normalization has now occurred and is winding down, positioning the industry favorably for 2025. Assuming continued healthy economic growth, as most economists are forecasting, we expect demand growth in 2025 to better align with GDP growth. With supply remaining extremely limited, this should result in healthy occupancy growth next year. For Pebblebrook, as evidenced by our 3Q and year-to-date results, we're not following the industry's flat demand performance, thanks to several factors. First, our properties are all positioned in the upper upscale or luxury segments, making them much less impacted by the challenges faced by travelers in more price-sensitive segments.

我們相信這種正常化的大部分已經發生並且逐漸結束，從而為該行業在 2025 年奠定了有利的基礎。假設經濟持續健康成長，正如大多數經濟學家預測的那樣，我們預計 2025 年的需求成長將與 GDP 成長更好地保持一致。由於供應仍然極其有限，這應該會導致明年的入住率健康成長。對於 Pebblebrook 來說，正如我們第三季和年初至今的業績所證明的那樣，由於多種因素的影響，我們並未關注該行業的需求表現持平。首先，我們的飯店均定位於高檔或豪華細分市場，因此受到對價格更敏感的細分市場的旅客所面臨的挑戰的影響要小得多。

Second, a significant portion of our portfolio resides in the urban markets that continue to regain significant occupancy with leisure and business transient demand returning and group bookings growing. Third, we're also regaining occupancy that was previously displaced by last year's renovations and redevelopments. And fourth, we're gaining market share in most of the properties we've redeveloped over the past few years. However, we faced certain market headwinds all year, including in the third quarter that are negatively impacting our performance. Three urban markets, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Portland, all took a step backward this year, each for different reasons.

其次，我們投資組合的很大一部分位於城市市場，隨著休閒和商務短暫需求的回歸以及團體預訂的增長，城市市場的入住率繼續重新獲得顯著增長。第三，我們也重新獲得了去年因翻新和重建而被取代的入住率。第四，我們在過去幾年重新開發的大部分房產中都獲得了市場份額。然而，我們全年都面臨某些市場阻力，包括第三季度，這對我們的業績產生了負面影響。舊金山、洛杉磯和波特蘭這三個城市市場今年都出現了倒退，原因各有不同。

San Francisco experienced a significant decline in convention business this year, negatively affecting occupancy, but even more so putting pressure on rates. Encouragingly, this demand drop was more than offset by increases in business transient, in-house business group, and recovering leisure travelers to the city. And convention calendar is expected to strengthen significantly next year, up 50%, and is currently trending to be in better shape in future years.

舊金山今年的會議業務大幅下降，對入住率產生了負面影響，更給房價帶來了壓力。令人鼓舞的是，這種需求下降被商務旅客、內部商務團體和恢復到城市的休閒旅客的增加所抵消。明年的會議日曆預計將大幅增加，成長 50%，目前的趨勢是未來幾年狀況會更好。

Los Angeles and Portland have had different headwinds. LA faced significant reductions in demand due to the entertainment industry strikes last year and the potential for a strike this past summer. We're seeing production begin to return, albeit gradually, and we're encouraged that this trend should accelerate as the governor just announced a doubling of entertainment production financial incentives for next year.

洛杉磯和波特蘭面臨不同的阻力。由於去年娛樂業的罷工以及今年夏天可能發生的罷工，洛杉磯面臨需求的大幅減少。我們看到製作開始恢復，儘管是逐漸恢復的，我們感到鼓舞的是，隨著州長剛剛宣布明年將娛樂製作財政激勵措施增加一倍，這種趨勢應該會加速。

Portland's recovery has been slower due primarily to quality of life challenges that were exacerbated during the pandemic. However, there have been noticeable improvements recently as local policies have been implemented to promote a safer and cleaner city. As Ray indicated, we've seen a significant recovery in Portland's business demand this year, particularly in Q3, and we expect 2024 will represent the market's bottom with a more robust recovery ahead.

波特蘭的復甦速度較慢，主要是由於大流行期間加劇了生活品質挑戰。然而，最近隨著地方政策的實施，促進城市更安全、更清潔，情況有了明顯改善。正如 Ray 指出的那樣，我們看到波特蘭今年的商業需求顯著復甦，特別是在第三季度，我們預計 2024 年將代表市場觸底，未來將出現更強勁的復甦。

The combined RevPAR for these three urban markets declined 5.7% in the third quarter, and we're forecasting a decline of 5.6% for the full year. Combined, these three markets present a year-over-year EBITDA decline of over $17 million for this year. In contrast, our urban properties in Boston, San Diego and Chicago grew combined RevPAR by 9.6% in the third quarter, and they're forecasted to achieve 8.1% growth for the full year. Combined EBITDA from these three markets is currently forecasted to increase by $15.5 million this year. So quite a contrast between the faster recovering cities and the slower recovering cities.

第三季這三個城市市場的平均每間可用客房收入下降了 5.7%，我們預計全年將下降 5.6%。今年這三個市場的 EBITDA 年減超過 1,700 萬美元。相比之下，我們在波士頓、聖地牙哥和芝加哥的城市物業第三季的平均每間可用房收入成長了 9.6%，預計全年將實現 8.1% 的成長。目前預計今年這三個市場的綜合 EBITDA 將增加 1,550 萬美元。因此，恢復較快的城市和恢復較慢的城市之間形成了鮮明的對比。

We anticipate that these three slower and later to recover urban markets should no longer be a drag on our performance in 2025 and should even become a tailwind next year and beyond. In addition, we expect significant further benefits from our recently redeveloped properties throughout our portfolio, which have achieved substantial market share gains in 2024. And let me provide a few examples. We have previously talked about the redevelopment and conversion of Hotel Vitale in San Francisco into the one Hotel San Francisco. In a very challenging market, which generally makes it harder to gain share, one Hotel San Francisco gained another 765 basis points of RevPAR share year over year in the third quarter, and it has gained over 1,000 basis points year to date. This is on top of last year's 2,400-basis-point gain.

我們預計，這三個復甦較慢且較晚的城市市場不應再成為我們 2025 年業績的拖累，甚至應該成為明年及以後的推動力。此外，我們預計我們最近重新開發的房地產將在我們的整個投資組合中帶來進一步的顯著收益，這些房地產在 2024 年已實現了可觀的市場份額增長。讓我舉幾個例子。我們之前曾討論過將舊金山維塔萊酒店 (Hotel Vitale) 重新開發並改建為舊金山唯一酒店 (One Hotel San Francisco)。在一個非常具有挑戰性的市場中，通常很難獲得市場份額，舊金山酒店第三季度的每間客房收入份額又同比增長了 765 個基點，今年迄今已增長了 1,000 多個基點。這是在去年 2,400 個基點的漲幅之上的。

Margaritaville Hotel San Diego Gaslamp Quarter gained over 2,600 basis points in the third quarter and over 3,600 basis points year to date. Newport Harbor Island Resort gained over 400 basis points of RevPAR in just its first full quarter of being open following its redevelopment. Estancia La Jolla Hotel & Spa gained over 400 basis points in Q3 and over 1,000 basis points year to date. Properties redeveloped in prior years are also showing strong gains as ramp-up typically takes three to four years and was interrupted by the pandemic.

聖地牙哥瑪格麗塔維爾酒店 Gaslamp Quarter 第三季上漲了 2,600 多個基點，今年迄今上漲了 3,600 多個基點。紐波特港島度假村 (Newport Harbour Island Resort) 在重建後開業後的第一個完整季度內，每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 就增加了 400 多個基點。Estancia La Jolla Hotel & Spa 在第三季度上漲了 400 多個基點，今年迄今上漲了 1,000 多個基點。前幾年重新開發的房產也顯示出強勁的成長，因為爬坡通常需要三到四年的時間，並且被疫情中斷。

L'Auberge Del Mar gained almost 700 basis points of RevPAR share this year so far. Harbor Court in San Francisco has gained over 1,000 basis points this year. Chaminade Resort in Santa Cruz gained over 600 basis points year to date. Viceroy Santa Monica and Hotel Zena in Washington, DC, each gained over 400 basis points. Ziggy in West Hollywood, over 300 basis points.

今年迄今為止，L'Auberge Del Mar 的 RevPAR 份額增加了近 700 個基點。舊金山的 Harbour Court 今年上漲了 1,000 多個基點。聖克魯斯 (Santa Cruz) 的查米納德度假村 (Chaminade Resort) 今年迄今已上漲 600 多個基點。華盛頓特區的 Viceroy Santa Monica 和 Hotel Zena 均上漲超過 400 個基點。西好萊塢的 Ziggy 上漲超過 300 個基點。

Westin Copley in Boston gained over 800 basis points. I could go on, but I think you get the idea. Continuing RevPAR share gains from all of our major redevelopments will drive significant RevPAR growth and EBITDA gains over the next few years particularly with limited to no supply growth in our markets. Looking forward to 2025, group pace for our portfolio continues to be very favorable. Group room nights are currently ahead by 6.2% year-over-year, with ADR up by 2.2% and total group revenue on-the-books up by 8.5% compared to the same time last year.

波士頓威斯汀·科普利 (Westin Copley) 上漲超過 800 個基點。我可以繼續說下去，但我想你已經明白了。我們所有重大重建項目帶來的每間可用收入份額的持續增長將在未來幾年推動每間可用收入的顯著增長和EBITDA 的增長，特別是在我們市場的供應增長有限甚至沒有增長的情況下。展望 2025 年，我們的投資組合的整體步伐仍然非常有利。與去年同期相比，團體間夜數目前年增 6.2%，平均房價成長 2.2%，團體帳面總收入成長 8.5%。

When combined with transient, total room nights on the books for next year are ahead by 12.2%, with rate up by 0.1% and total revenue on the books ahead by 12.3%. We're particularly encouraged by next year's group pace at our resorts. They're currently ahead by 11.2% in group room nights, 2.7% in ADR, and 14.2% in group revenue. Our redeveloped resorts are leading the way to this favorable pace.

如果加上臨時性的因素，明年的總預訂間夜數將成長 12.2%，房價將上漲 0.1%，預訂總收入將成長 12.3%。我們對明年度假村的集體進度感到特別鼓舞。目前，他們在團體間夜數、平均房價和團體收入方面領先 11.2%、2.7% 和 14.2%。我們重新開發的度假村正在引領這一良好步伐。

As we look out to 2025, we see several very significant positives. First, we expect headwinds turning into tailwinds in our three challenging urban markets with our other urban markets set up for continuing growth in 2025. Second, we expect significant growth from ongoing share gains in our redeveloped properties. Third, we believe the recovery in business transient and business group will continue. Fourth, we expect the trend of leisure travelers returning to the cities will continue next year and international inbound versus outbound should begin to become a tailwind, further benefiting the urban markets. And fifth, we believe it's likely that overall hotel industry demand growth will return to its normal historical relationship with GDP growth, leading to higher occupancies as demand growth outpaces a very low level of supply growth.

展望 2025 年，我們看到了幾個非常重要的正面因素。首先，我們預計三個充滿挑戰的城市市場的逆風將轉變為順風，而我們的其他城市市場將在 2025 年持續成長。其次，我們預期重建物業的持續份額成長將帶來顯著成長。第三，我們認為業務暫時性和業務群的復甦將持續。第四，我們預計明年休閒遊客返回城市的趨勢將持續，國際入境與出境應開始成為一股推動力，進一步有利於城市市場。第五，我們認為，飯店業整體需求成長可能會恢復到與 GDP 成長的正常歷史關係，從而導致入住率上升，因為需求成長超過了非常低的供應成長水準。

Of course, all of this assumes a relatively normal year of economic growth that's consistent with the current consensus forecast. So that completes our prepared remarks. We're now happy to address your questions.

當然，所有這一切都假設經濟成長相對正常，這與當前的共識預測一致。我們準備好的發言就這樣完成了。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

So Donna, you may proceed with the Q&A.

唐娜，您可以繼續進行問答。

(Operator instructions) Dori Kesten, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）Dori Kesten，富國銀行。

It may be a bit early, but do you think LaPlaya should be able to exceed this year's original $24 million EBITDA expectation next year? And can you just let us know what you're able to do to change at the property so that future storms might be less impactful?

也許有點早，但您認為 LaPlaya 明年應該能夠超過今年最初 2400 萬美元的 EBITDA 預期嗎？您能否告訴我們您可以對房產進行哪些改變，以減少未來風暴的影響？

Sure. Well, I appreciate your qualifier. It is a little bit early, but I would say, if we're successful with the schedule that we laid out the timeline, I do think we should be able to get back to where we were expecting to be for this year for a couple of reasons. First is we have a lot more group on the books this coming year, in fact, much more in line with sort of pre-hurricane pace. Second, the club continues to grow there, and that growth continues to add EBITDA to the property.

當然。嗯，我很欣賞你的資格賽。現在有點早，但我想說，如果我們能夠成功完成我們制定的時間表，我確實認為我們應該能夠回到今年對幾個人的預期的原因。首先，明年我們的帳簿上會有更多的團隊，事實上，更符合颶風前的節奏。其次，俱樂部在那裡繼續發展，這種增長繼續為該物業增加 EBITDA。

So I do think that's a reasonable scenario for next year provided we meet the timeline that we've laid out. And then I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

因此，我確實認為，如果我們能夠滿足我們制定的時間表，那麼明年的情況是合理的。抱歉，您問題的第二部分是什麼？

On the enhancements that we --

關於我們的增強功能--

Yeah, sure. So we did a bunch of enhancements after Ian as part of the rebuild. Systems in the beach house are out of storm surge way. They're on upper floors. We rebuilt Dunes on the beach. We've added hurricane proof sliders and windows and things like that.

是的，當然。因此，作為重建的一部分，我們在伊恩之後進行了一系列增強。海濱別墅的系統不受風暴潮影響。他們在較高樓層。我們在海灘上重建了沙丘。我們添加了防颶風滑塊和窗戶之類的東西。

We did a lot of temporary protections this go around that kept water, at least in the second storm from getting into the beach house in a meaningful way from the ocean side. We did have some flooding in the streets on the Bay side that caused water to come in from the other side. And so we've laid out some other both permanent and temporary protections that we plan to do between now and next year's hurricane season that we think will dramatically mitigate even further the impact from storms. And we've done a lot of work with our insurance providers and advisers about what kinds of things we can do with the property in anticipation of a storm that will limit damage and speed recovery.

我們做了很多臨時保護措施，以防止水（至少在第二次風暴中）從海邊以有意義的方式進入海濱別墅。海灣一側的街道確實發生了一些洪水，導致水從另一側湧入。因此，我們計劃從現在到明年颶風季節之間採取其他一些永久性和臨時性保護措施，我們認為這將極大地進一步減輕風暴的影響。我們與保險提供者和顧問進行了大量合作，探討在風暴來臨之前我們可以對財產採取哪些措施，以限制損失並加快恢復速度。

Jay Kornreich, Wedbush Securities.

傑‧柯恩瑞奇 (Jay Kornreich)，韋德布希證券公司。

Just going back to your comments on the 2025 outlook looking much more promising for the hotel industry. Can you just provide some more details as to what you expect from the leisure customer and specifically really being able to start pushing rate at the resort?

回到您對 2025 年前景的評論，酒店業看起來更有希望。您能否提供更多細節，說明您對休閒客戶的期望，特別是真正能夠開始提高度假村的房價？

Yeah. I mean, I think where we are with the leisure customer is we've sort of gone through this normalization process over the last 18 to 24 months following the sort of peak demand post pandemic in 2022. It's hard to say where average rate will end up. I think as Ray explained, as we add group, and we look at group coming into next year, I mean, we're ahead in rate on our group rate. Now we're going to do more group at our resorts next year.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們與休閒客戶的關係是，在 2022 年大流行後的需求高峰之後，我們在過去 18 到 24 個月內經歷了這種正常化過程。很難說平均利率最終會達到什麼水準。我認為，正如雷解釋的那樣，當我們增加團體時，我們會考慮明年的團體，我的意思是，我們在團體率上領先。現在我們明年將在我們的度假村舉辦更多的團體活動。

That's our objective. We're not yet back to where we used to be pre-pandemic. And we've also added event lawns and meeting rooms and other facilities that we think should drive additional group into the mix in these properties. So I don't know where the average rate will come. I do think ADR in terms of what we're charging for leisure guests and where we're posting it, that those are generally stabilizing at this point.

這就是我們的目標。我們還沒有回到大流行前的狀態。我們還增加了活動草坪、會議室和其他設施，我們認為這些設施應該會吸引更多的團體加入這些物業。所以我不知道平均利率會在哪裡。我確實認為，就我們向休閒客人收取的費用以及我們發布的價格而言，ADR 目前總體上已經趨於穩定。

And as we continue to build occupancy further, some of which does come from some lower-rated customers on international or wholesale channels. I think we'll be in a position to get more compression, have more high occupancy weekends and holidays and begin to grow rates again as we're doing at some of our properties, particularly the ones that have been redeveloped.

隨著我們繼續進一步提高入住率，其中一些確實來自國際或批發管道上評級較低的客戶。我認為我們將能夠獲得更多的壓縮，擁有更多的周末和假期入住率，並開始再次提高利率，就像我們在一些房產上所做的那樣，特別是那些已經重新開發的房產。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗銀行。

I wanted to ask you just a little bit about what you're sort of thinking about for wages and benefit growth and overall cost growth next year or prices sort of moderating? Or how do you think about that right now?

我想問一下您對明年工資和福利增長以及總體成本增長或價格放緩有何看法？或者你現在怎麼看待這個問題？

Sure. Well, we've just begun to receive our first preliminary budgets or proposed budgets from our properties, and our teams are just starting to work through those and work with the operating teams. I think it's a little early to tell you where it's all going to come out. I think as a general perspective, I think the sort of the average wage increases from a philosophical perspective, are going to be slightly lower than they were last year given the lowered inflation rate overall. So I think as it applies to most employees throughout our portfolio, I think that will apply.

當然。嗯，我們剛開始收到我們酒店的第一份初步預算或擬議預算，我們的團隊剛開始處理這些預算並與營運團隊合作。我認為現在告訴你這一切將在哪裡出現還為時過早。我認為，從整體角度來看，鑑於整體通膨率下降，從哲學角度來看，平均薪資增幅將略低於去年。因此，我認為，由於它適用於我們整個投資組合中的大多數員工，因此我認為這將適用。

In the markets where there are new union arrangements either already agreed to, which is in most of the markets at this point or likely soon to come to resolution, I think those increases are going to be larger, and those are going to drive the overall number up a little bit as it relates to those hourly workers in those union markets. And I think that applies whether you're union or non-union, unless you really want to take the risk of either losing your employees because in many cases, labor is still reasonably tight for the positions that fall under the CBAs or you're going to risk being unionized. So our non-union properties typically follow the union agreements. And so as a result of that, I think in the cities, some of them, we're going to have a higher increase on average than we're going to have in any of the secondary markets or in the resort markets in general.

在有新的工會安排的市場中，要么已經同意（目前在大多數市場中都是如此），要么可能很快就會得到解決，我認為這些增加將會更大，並且這些將推動整體數字略有增加，因為它與那些工會市場中的小時工有關。我認為無論你是工會還是非工會，這都適用，除非你真的想冒失去員工的風險，因為在許多情況下，對於屬於 CBA 的職位來說，勞動力仍然相當緊張，或者你冒著加入工會的風險。因此，我們的非工會財產通常遵循工會協議。因此，我認為在城市中，其中一些城市，我們的平均增幅將高於任何二級市場或整個度假村市場。

My question was, I was just wondering if you -- I'm sure it varies by market, but if you guys just have a sense of where the union contracts are coming in, it looks like a number of them are getting settled. And I'm just wondering if you have a sense of what kind of first year wage increases are as a percentage.

我的問題是，我只是想知道你是否——我確信這會因市場而異，但如果你們只是了解工會合約的來源，看起來其中一些合約已經解決了。我只是想知道您是否知道第一年工資增長的百分比是多少。

Yes. I mean I think we have a pretty good idea of where the agreements have come in because we're in some of those markets and they apply to our properties. I think the -- it varies by market. I think they -- there are offsets in many of these markets that relate to other -- either reductions or credits for other categories -- and I think that giving you a number at this point would be probably misleading, particularly since we have -- what we're really focused on is what are the averages going to be at each of the properties for all of our wages and benefits on a combined basis, and we don't have that at this point.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們非常清楚這些協議的來源，因為我們處於其中一些市場，而且它們適用於我們的房產。我認為——它因市場而異。我認為，這些市場中的許多市場都存在與其他市場相關的抵消——無論是其他類別的減少還是抵免——而且我認為，在這一點上給你一個數字可能會產生誤導，特別是因為我們已經——我們真正關注的是我們所有工資和福利的每個房產的平均水平是多少，但目前我們還沒有這個數據。

And Smedes, so certainly, wages and benefits are an important part of the cost structure. I mean, it represents about 60% or so of our overall cost. But the other 40% are a lot of other input costs that we've seen come down significantly over the last 12 years as the inflation pressures subside. So less pressure on food and beverage costs. Energy costs are becoming less pressure.

對中小企業來說，薪資和福利當然是成本結構的重要組成部分。我的意思是，它約占我們總成本的 60% 左右。但另外 40% 是許多其他投入成本，隨著通膨壓力的消退，我們看到這些成本在過去 12 年中顯著下降。因此食品和飲料成本的壓力較小。能源成本壓力越來越小。

In many cases, the costs are coming down, inflationary are actually turning negative. And a lot of the cost enhancements and technology we're using helps take out the other expenses. So certainly, we focus a lot on wages and benefits because it's an important part of the overall cost structure. But the other 40% are a lot of areas that we can -- we have control over and we can have savings in. So that's why I look at the whole picture, not just one component of the cost.

在許多情況下，成本正在下降，通貨膨脹實際上正在轉為負值。我們正在使用的許多成本改進和技術有助於消除其他費用。當然，我們非常關注工資和福利，因為它是整體成本結構的重要組成部分。但另外 40% 是我們可以控制並且可以節省開支的許多領域。這就是為什麼我著眼於整體情況，而不僅僅是成本的一​​個組成部分。

Ari Klein, BMO Capital Markets.

Ari Klein，BMO 資本市場。

Jon, you noted some of the optimism in the struggling urban markets. And I'm wondering how you stack rank San Francisco, Portland, and LA. from a longer-term standpoint? And then dispositions have largely focused on reducing exposure to West Coast markets. Given your view on the tailwinds, are you comfortable with the existing exposure?

喬恩，您注意到了陷入困境的城市市場的一些樂觀情緒。我想知道舊金山、波特蘭和洛杉磯的排名如何。從更長遠的角度來看？然後，處置主要集中在減少對西海岸市場的曝險。鑑於您對有利因素的看法，您對現有的風險敞口感到滿意嗎？

Sure. So I think our view on Portland and San Francisco and LA is that the underlying fundamentals of those markets, the reasons that they were successful before the pandemic will be the same reasons why they're successful after the pandemic once these cities get past their challenges that, in many cases, they created for themselves during the pandemic. LA is a little different because of what's going on in the entertainment industry, but it too is challenged by some of these quality of life issues.

當然。因此，我認為我們對波特蘭、舊金山和洛杉磯的看法是，這些市場的基本面，即它們在大流行之前取得成功的原因，將與它們在大流行之後成功的原因相同，一旦這些城市克服了挑戰在許多情況下，他們是在大流行期間為自己創造的。由於娛樂業的發展，洛杉磯有點不同，但它也受到一些生活品質問題的挑戰。

What we're encouraged about is, while we just had another election, I think we made significantly further progress in these markets in seeing much more business-friendly, moderate representatives get elected. And I think that's resulted in a change in policies and a more practical approach to addressing a lot of these issues so that the cities thrive instead of the cities suffering. So we're encouraged by that. We're encouraged that the fundamental base of -- economic base of these cities has remained in place. And the educational systems, the weather, the beauty of the cities, the restaurant scene, the cultural activities, those all remain, and they continue to be drivers in those markets.

令我們感到鼓舞的是，雖然我們剛剛舉行了另一次選舉，但我認為我們在這些市場上取得了顯著的進一步進展，看到更多有利於商業的、溫和的代表當選。我認為這導致了政策的改變和更實際的方法來解決許多這些問題，從而使城市繁榮而不是城市受苦。所以我們對此感到鼓舞。我們感到鼓舞的是，這些城市的經濟基礎仍然存在。教育系統、天氣、城市美景、餐廳場景、文化活動，這些都仍然存在，並且繼續成為這些市場的驅動力。

Sporting activities continue to pick up, et cetera. So I think we're comfortable with the rebound in these markets. We're obviously disappointed in how long they're taking. And in some cases, it's not surprising. I think we've said it's going to take significant time to turn things around in these markets, but there'll be a point at which these become hockey stick markets.

體育活動繼續回升等。所以我認為我們對這些市場的反彈感到滿意。我們顯然對他們花了這麼長時間感到失望。在某些情況下，這並不奇怪。我想我們已經說過，要扭轉這些市場的局面需要很長時間，但總有一天這些市場會變成曲棍球棒市場。

We're not there yet. Obviously, they went backwards this past year. In terms of our position in the markets, I mean, we're going to continue to try to be active in recycling capital to take advantage of the opportunity to repurchase our portfolio at a dramatic discount to the underlying value of those assets. What we need is a more active transaction market, and we think that that's coming in 2025. So of course, there's still uncertainty with what's going to come out of this election and what policies are going to come out of this election.

我們還沒到那兒。顯然，他們在過去的一年裡倒退了。就我們在市場中的地位而言，我的意思是，我們將繼續努力積極回收資本，以利用機會以低於這些資產基礎價值的大幅折扣回購我們的投資組合。我們需要的是一個更活躍的交易市場，我們認為這將在 2025 年實現。當然，這次選舉將會產生什麼以及這次選舉將會產生什麼政策仍然存在不確定性。

And so we'll see what that does, if anything, to this recovery in the transaction markets in these markets.

因此，我們將看看這對這些市場的交易市場的復甦有何影響（如果有的話）。

And Aryeh, just to remind you, since 2019, we've sold 15 hotels largely in the West Coast markets in markets like San Francisco, Seattle and Portland, and we distribute a lot of that capital to more leisure markets and some more in the East Coast. So the portfolio has changed since 2019, and we'll make some continued progress we expect and hope in 2025.

Aryeh，只是想提醒您一下，自2019 年以來，我們已經在舊金山、西雅圖和波特蘭等西海岸市場出售了15 家酒店，並且我們將其中大量資金分配給了更多的休閒市場以及更多的休閒市場。因此，自 2019 年以來，投資組合發生了變化，我們將在 2025 年取得我們期望和希望的持續進展。

And then just maybe a kind of unrelated follow-up. Just on the Delfina conversion impact. Did something happen there that was unanticipated? Because obviously, we knew about that before this quarter.

然後可能只是一種不相關的後續行動。只是對德爾菲娜轉換的影響。難道那裡發生了一些意想不到的事情嗎？因為顯然，我們在本季之前就知道了這一點。

Yes, we knew that we were changing the brand on September 16. We expected that there would be significant disruption. You're changing all the systems, you're renaming the property. You've got to work with third parties, OTAs, review sites, everybody. Obviously, Hyatt had a very significant staff that was focused on the property and helped guide the property to getting all those things changed.

是的，我們知道我們將在 9 月 16 日更換品牌。我們預計會出現重大干擾。您正在變更所有系統，您正在重新命名該屬性。你必須與第三方、OTA、評論網站等所有人合作。顯然，凱悅擁有一支非常重要的員工，他們專注於酒店，並幫助指導酒店改變所有這些事情。

Some of those things are just outside of the control of all of us that it takes longer. But two, we did anticipate significant disruption. We put in place a lot of policies to try to fill even at lower rates during this disruption, and it's just turned out to be more significant than what we thought it would be. We continue to think it's a temporary thing. It should gradually fade away over the course of the latter half of this quarter, but more significantly, the first quarter and the second quarter of next year.

其中一些事情超出了我們所有人的控制範圍，因此需要更長的時間。但第二，我們確實預期會出現重大破壞。我們制定了許多政策，試圖在這次中斷期間以較低的利率填補空缺，但事實證明，這比我們想像的更重要。我們仍然認為這是暫時的。它應該會在本季後半段逐漸消失，但更重要的是，明年第一季和第二季。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth)，Evercore ISI。

Jon, I appreciate your thoughts on demand and normalization over the last 18 months. It sounds like there's some optimism we could see acceleration or a pickup. I wondered if you put a finer point on it, what segments do you think have the most upside potential? Which chain scales could see the biggest pickup if that view plays out?

Jon，我感謝您在過去 18 個月中對需求和正常化的想法。聽起來我們對看到加速或回升持樂觀態度。我想知道您是否能更詳細地闡述一下，您認為哪些細分市場最具上升潛力？如果這種觀點得到證實，哪些連鎖秤可能會出現最大的成長？

Well, that's a little more challenging question perhaps than I think we can address in detail. But just from a high level, I'd say we're excited by the potential growth on the business travel side being led by group, but continuing recovery on the business transient side. And I guess this week, we've had a few things happen. And clearly, the business world or certainly the investment world has responded extremely favorably to the national election. And I think that's encouraging for business travel next year.

嗯，這也許是一個比我認為我們可以詳細解決的問題更具挑戰性的問題。但僅從高水準來看，我想說，我們對由團體主導的商務旅行方面的潛在增長感到興奮，但商務短暫方面的持續復甦。我想這週我們發生了一些事。顯然，商界或投資界對全國選舉的反應非常正面。我認為這對明年的商務旅行來說是令人鼓舞的。

The forecast for increased business profits are very healthy for next year. They're very good for this year. And I think profits connect to travel and opportunities. So I think we'd be encouraged by some potential acceleration in business travel growth next year. I think we'd be very excited about the final normalization of leisure demand and the opportunity to begin to see rates stabilize and perhaps increase next year on the leisure side.

明年業務利潤成長的預測非常健康。他們今年的表現非常好。我認為利潤與旅行和機會有關。因此，我認為明年商務旅行成長的潛在加速會讓我們感到鼓舞。我認為我們會對休閒需求的最終正常化以及有機會開始看到休閒方面的利率穩定並可能在明年增加感到非常興奮。

The return of international inbound, I think we would normally be excited that, that could be significant next year. But again, the reaction in the markets to the election and the increase in the dollar, I guess, is a meaningful headwind to some of that happening. So hopefully, over time, particularly assuming the Fed continues to lower short-term rates and if we get some stabilization on the further end of the curve, maybe we'll begin to see some softer currency dynamics that would help us with international inbound recovery. The other thing is we would hope to see a greater effort on the part of the administration to enhance the speed at which people are getting visas, although that might be an unrealistic expectation.

我認為我們通常會感到興奮，因為國際入境航班的回歸明年可能會很重要。但我想，市場對選舉和美元升值的反應對其中一些事情的發生來說是一個有意義的阻力。因此，希望隨著時間的推移，特別是假設聯準會繼續降低短期利率，如果我們在曲線的另一端獲得一些穩定，也許我們將開始看到一些疲軟的貨幣動態，這將有助於我們的國際入境復甦。另一件事是，我們希望看到政府做出更大的努力，以提高人們獲得簽證的速度，儘管這可能是不切實際的期望。

That's helpful. And then just in terms of the lagging markets and some of the changes you alluded to, changes in mayors, district attorneys, I think it's Prop 36. How long do you think it will take for those things to kind of change the perception of the markets and move the needle on your results? I mean it certainly seems directionally positive, but is this more of a 5- to 10-year phenomenon than a one or two?

這很有幫助。然後就滯後市場和你提到的一些變化，市長、地區檢察官的變化，我認為這是第 36 號提案。您認為這些事情需要多長時間才能改變市場的看法並推動您的業績？我的意思是，這看起來肯定是正面的，但這是否是一個 5 到 10 年的現象，而不是一兩年的現象？

Yes. Boy, I'd like to think it's not a 5- to 10-year. It shouldn't take that long for the truth to come out because I think the good news is the reality on the ground in these markets, the condition of the cities, the cleanliness, the safety side is dramatically improved. In fact, when I go to San Francisco, I think San Francisco is in better condition than it was in 2019, certainly when we were there for Nareit back, I think it was '18. And so I think things have dramatically improved.

是的。天哪，我想這不是 5 到 10 年。真相應該不會花那麼長時間就會水落石出，因為我認為好消息是這些市場的現實情況，城市的狀況、清潔度和安全方面都得到了顯著改善。事實上，當我去舊金山時，我認為舊金山的狀況比 2019 年更好，當然當我們去那雷特回來時，我認為那是 18 年。所以我認為事情已經有了顯著的改善。

We've been working to try to get that news out. Sometimes there's a competing narrative that perhaps is politically driven. But I just think it takes like anything, it takes getting people there to see the truth and to have a good experience. And I think that is what's been happening. I think people have had good convention experiences when they go to San Francisco.

我們一直在努力傳播這個消息。有時會有一種可能是出於政治驅動的相互競爭的敘事。但我認為這就像任何事情一樣，需要讓人們看到真相並獲得良好的體驗。我認為這就是正在發生的事情。我認為人們去舊金山時有過很好的會議經驗。

I think they have good leisure experiences when they go there. I think that's the case in Portland as well. It's much improved, although I do think Portland still has a little ways to go on the ground in addition to the perception. And again, I think the elections, the Supreme Court ruling on homeless encampments, the return of staffing for police forces, the focus on. I mean, you just saw a change in law in California on theft.

我認為他們去那裡有很好的休閒體驗。我認為波特蘭也是如此。它已經有了很大的改進，儘管我確實認為除了感知之外，波特蘭在實地還有一些路要走。再說一次，我認為選舉、最高法院對無家可歸者營地的裁決、警察部隊人員配置的回歸，都是焦點。我的意思是，你剛剛看到加州關於盜竊的法律發生了變化。

And I think that's, again, an indication that the people who live there have had enough and see that the prior policies haven't worked. So I do think there are a lot of positive things happening that's extremely encouraging. And I do think the perception will follow. It's still probably about a year behind, Duane, but I don't think it takes five years. I think it takes a couple of years.

我認為這再次表明，居住在那裡的人們已經受夠了，並且看到先前的政策沒有發揮作用。所以我確實認為有很多積極的事情正在發生，非常令人鼓舞。我確實認為這種看法將會隨之而來。杜安，它可能還落後一年左右，但我認為不需要五年。我認為這需要幾年的時間。

Gregory Miller, Truist Securities.

格雷戈里·米勒，Truist 證券公司。

I'm hoping you could provide an update on the progress and goals with Curator and items I personally think about relate to the financial performance for Curator itself and the number of hotels. And as a brief aside, I'd be curious to get your thoughts about KSL's sale of Davidson and if that impacts either Curator or your hotel operations at all?

我希望您能提供有關 Curator 的進展和目標的最新信息，以及我個人認為與 Curator 本身的財務業績和酒店數量相關的項目。順便說一句，我很想知道您對 KSL 出售戴維森的想法，這是否會影響 Curator 或您的酒店營運？

Sure. Well, I think as it relates to Curator, we've been publishing the number of members and the number of vendor partnerships. And so you can see there we've been around 100 now for probably four quarters or so. And I think we're close to being on the verge to continue to see growth in that over the next 12 months, but it's certainly behind our goals as it relates to the size we would have hoped we would be at, at this point in time. And in some regards, I think it's sort of a sad statement on the part of our industry where either operators or owners or both don't like to save money and create value because that's what Curator does, and it's what it's done for us.

當然。嗯，我認為與 Curator 相關，我們一直在發布成員數量和供應商合作夥伴數量。所以你可以看到，大約四個季度以來，我們的數量一直在 100 左右。我認為我們即將在未來 12 個月內繼續看到成長，但這肯定落後於我們的目標，因為它與我們目前希望達到的規模有關時間。在某些方面，我認為這對我們行業來說是一種悲傷的聲明，運營商或所有者或兩者都不喜歡省錢和創造價值，因為這就是Curator 所做的，這就是它為我們所做的。

It's a significant cost saver, and we continue to encourage folks to take the time and put the effort into partnering with Curator because I think it's a significant value creator for their properties.

它可以節省大量成本，我們繼續鼓勵人們花時間和精力與 Curator 合作，因為我認為這是他們財產的重要價值創造者。

And just to add to that, Greg. So what you don't necessarily see is because of the 100-plus hotels, Pebblebrook benefits from that. As an example, Curator just negotiated a new contract with Avendra, and it's part of the scale we have, not just the Pebblebrook hotels, but the Curator member hotels. So Curator is getting a better deal from Avendra because of the larger contract we just negotiated. So our cost will be one of those areas going down or some of the rebates we're getting.

格雷格，補充一下。因此，您不一定會看到 Pebblebrook 因擁有 100 多家酒店而受益匪淺。舉個例子，Curator 剛剛與 Avendra 談判了一份新合同，這是我們規模的一部分，不僅僅是 Pebblebrook 酒店，還有 Curator 成員酒店。因此，由於我們剛剛談判達成了更大的合同，Curator 從 Avendra 那裡得到了更好的交易。因此，我們的成本將是那些下降的領域之一或我們獲得的一些回扣。

So those are several of the pluses and pluses as well as the digital marketing that they're making efforts on. It doesn't always appear in our P&L because it's directing business to the hotels, but that's an area which does overall help. So a lot of other areas as well as the R&D areas. We've -- with Curator, they pioneered a couple of new technologies working with new services. There's an AI tool, a bot now that can be used at hotel to reduce service requests.

這些是他們正在努力的一些優點和優點以及數位行銷。它並不總是出現在我們的損益表中，因為它將業務引向酒店，但這是一個總體上有幫助的領域。許多其他領域以及研發領域也是如此。我們與 Curator 一起開創了一些與新服務一起使用的新技術。現在有一個人工智慧工具，一個機器人，可以在飯店使用，以減少服務請求。

That's something that before AI, you would need to be a large company to have the scale to have a tool like that. Now individual hotels can have areas to use the AI bots where guests can ask for towels or requests and other areas could be done. So those are these different areas that we're able to do much better and provide more bandwidth here versus if we didn't have Curator under our belt here.

在人工智慧出現之前，你需要成為一家大公司才能擁有這樣的工具的規模。現在，個別飯店可以設立使用人工智慧機器人的區域，客人可以在那裡索取毛巾或提出要求，其他區域也可以完成。因此，如果我們沒有 Curator，我們可以在這些不同的領域做得更好，並提供更多的頻寬。

And I think as it relates to the KSL sale of Davidson. Obviously, we were well aware of the possibility from both Davidson and KSL that Davidson would get sold. We're pleased they executed well. They found a private equity group that's excited about the opportunity. And based upon what we know today, we don't see any impact either on our relationship with them or the relationship that either Davidson or KSL have with Curator.

我認為這與戴維森 KSL 的出售有關。顯然，我們很清楚戴維森和 KSL 都可能會出售戴維森。我們很高興他們執行得很好。他們找到了一個對這個機會感到興奮的私募股權集團。根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們認為我們與他們的關係以及 Davidson 或 KSL 與 Curator 的關係不會受到任何影響。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

邁克爾貝利薩裡奧，貝爾德。

Jon, you bought back a little bit of stock in the quarter, but it wasn't match funded with the disposition. Can we read into this that you're making progress with asset sales? Or has your view changed a little bit on how you fund buybacks?

喬恩，您在本季回購了一些股票，但沒有與處置相符的資金。我們能否了解到您在資產出售方面取得了進展？或者您對如何為回購提供資金的看法發生了一些變化嗎？

Yes. I mean I don't think you should read anything into it from a transactional perspective. I think that will continue to be the primary source of proceeds that get used to buy our stock back. We are, as you know, generating very significant cash flow this year, $100 million or so, give or take. And you know that our dividend is still $0.01 a quarter.

是的。我的意思是，我認為你不應該從事務的角度來解讀它。我認為這將繼續成為用於回購我們股票的收益的主要來源。如您所知，我們今年產生了非常可觀的現金流，約為 1 億美元。你知道我們每季的股息仍然是 0.01 美元。

So it's an effort to continue to get capital back to our shareholders as a result of the significant free cash flow that we're generating. So again, we continue to try to find the balance with the way we allocate capital, the state of our income statement and our balance sheet.

因此，由於我們產生了大量的自由現金流，我們正在努力繼續將資本回饋給我們的股東。因此，我們繼續努力在資本分配方式、損益表和資產負債表狀況之間找到平衡。

Fair enough. And then just I know your redevelopments are largely done, except the one that might happen in San Diego at some point. But when do you start thinking about maybe the next wave of projects? And then sort of along those same lines, any initial expectations for CapEx spending in '25 ex any hurricane dollars that might need to be spent? And that's all for me.

很公平。然後我知道你們的重建工作基本上已經完成，除了聖地牙哥可能在某個時候發生的重建工作。但你什麼時候開始考慮下一波專案呢？然後，沿著同樣的思路，對 25 年資本支出支出的任何初步預期（除去可能需要支出的任何颶風美元）？這就是我的全部。

Yes. So I'll address the first part. There is no next wave of projects. I mean we've redeveloped pretty much everything in the portfolio from our acquisition of the assets. I know -- I mean, there are always small projects.

是的。所以我將討論第一部分。沒有下一波項目。我的意思是，我們透過收購資產重新開發了投資組合中的幾乎所有內容。我知道——我的意思是，總是有小項目。

There's been some ROI projects, small ROI projects that we've deferred because of a better use of capital, but nothing major in the portfolio. And I think that's in a way, it's the good news, not that there isn't further opportunity in the portfolio for additional investment. There is some of that, as I said, particularly smaller ROI projects, sustainability, energy, things like that. But the major projects are done. There aren't going to be another group of them, and there's really just the one left potentially at Paradise Point.

由於更好地利用資本，我們推遲了一些投資回報率項目、小型投資回報率項目，但投資組合中沒有什麼重大的項目。我認為這在某種程度上是個好消息，而不是說投資組合中沒有更多的機會進行額外投資。正如我所說，其中有一些，特別是較小的投資回報率項目、永續性、能源等。但主要項目已經完成。不會有另一群人了，而且實際上只剩下可能留在天堂點的那群人了。

But again, the good news is we've already gone through the hard part. We've invested the dollars. We've had the disruption, and we've lived through that. And we're on the ramp-up side where the capital has already gone out the door and the upside is what's remaining. So we feel really good about where we are, the organic growth that we're going to have over the next three or four years and the fact that we're not going to have any material disruption as we move forward over the next few years.

但好消息是我們已經度過了困難的部分。我們已經投資了美元。我們經歷過混亂，也經歷過。我們正處於加速階段，資本已經退出，剩下的就是上行空間。因此，我們對自己的現狀、未來三四年內的有機增長以及未來幾年的前進不會出現任何實質性幹擾這一事實感到非常滿意。

And Michael, as you then think about the CapEx uses in '25 and beyond, again, this is ex -- the Paradox Point potential. Something in that $65 million to $75 million range is run rate. We're always going to have a little refresh here or there on a property that may we have done 7, 10 years ago that's due for a light touch. We'll have a couple of those. But in that vicinity, which is a lot less than the CapEx that's gone out the last several years.

邁克爾，當你考慮 25 年及以後的資本支出用途時，這又是悖論潛力。6500 萬美元到 7500 萬美元之間的部分是運行率。我們總是會在這裡或那裡對我們 7、10 年前可能已經完成的房產進行一些更新，這是應該進行輕微修改的。我們會有幾個。但在這個附近，這比過去幾年的資本支出要少得多。

So that's one thing to think about there. As it relates to any sort of hurricane restoration, as we noted earlier, the good news is because a lot of these capital investments that we've made, this is not going to be near the cost of what Ian was or the disruption. Ian, when you add the impact between LaPlaya and Southernmost and the losses there, including BI, that was in the $140 million, $150 million range. This is going to be much, much less because of those investments we've made to harden the assets. So it's going to be much less significant.

所以這是需要考慮的一件事。正如我們之前指出的，由於它與任何形式的颶風恢復有關，好消息是因為我們所做的大量資本投資不會接近伊恩或破壞造成的成本。Ian，當你加上 LaPlaya 和 Southernmost 之間的影響以及那裡的損失（包括 BI）時，損失在 1.4 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間。由於我們為強化資產而進行的投資，這一數字將會少得多。所以它的重要性會小很多。

And again, outside of our deductibles, which depending on how that's allocated, it's a few million dollars here or there, these are covered by -- paid by insurance. So there's a lagging effect on that, but it's much less significant. So we're eager to get the Beach House up and running. For us, it's just waiting and getting some of the permits. We're getting started.

再說一遍，除了我們的免賠額（取決於如何分配）之外，這裡或那裡有幾百萬美元，這些都由保險支付。因此，這會產生滯後效應，但影響要小得多。因此，我們渴望讓海濱別墅建成並投入運作。對於我們來說，只是等待並獲得一些許可證。我們正在開始。

Our teams are ready to move forward. So we certainly expect by the end of the first quarter, probably should look great, and we should have a really good '25.

我們的團隊已準備好繼續前進。因此，我們當然預計到第一季末，可能看起來會很棒，並且我們應該有一個非常好的 25 年。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bortz for closing comments.

現在，我想將發言權交還給博茨先生以作結束發言。

Well, thank you all for your time and your participation. Lots of exciting things going on in the world, and we look forward to seeing many of you out in Las Vegas for NAREIT and then perhaps not too long after the New Year. So I hope you enjoy your holidays, and we look forward to being in touch in the near future.

好的，謝謝大家的時間和參與。世界上正在發生許多令人興奮的事情，我們期待在拉斯維加斯參加 NAREIT 以及新年後不久見到你們中的許多人。因此，我希望您假期愉快，我們期待在不久的將來與您聯繫。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或登出網路廣播，然後享受剩下的一天。