Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Pebblebrook Hotel Trust fourth quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Raymond Martz, Co-President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Pebblebrook Hotel Trust 第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人、聯合總裁兼財務長 Raymond Martz。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and good morning to everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call and webcast. Joining me today is Jon Bortz, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Tom Fisher, our Co-President and Chief Investment Officer. But before we start, a reminder that today's comments are effective only February 22nd, 2020 for our comments include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws and actual results could differ materially from our comments. Please refer to our latest SEC filings for a detailed discussion of potential risk factors and our website for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures referred to during this call and in 2023, our portfolio continued to recover from the negative impact of the pandemic. This is a testament to the dedication, innovation and resilience of our hotel teams and operating partners. Their exceptional contributions were instrumental in propelling our portfolio's growth and recovery in 2023, and we thank them for their support and hard work. We are delighted to report favorable operating and financial results for 2023, our adjusted EBITDA reached $356.4 million, exceeding the top end of our outlook by $6.5 million in the fourth quarter as adjusted EBITDA increased to $63.3 million. Our adjusted funds from operations per share also surpassed our outlook ending the year at $1.60 per share for the fourth quarter at $0.21, beating the top end of our Q. four outlook by $0.07 per share. Better than expected performance in the fourth quarter was fueled by our urban hotels. We continue to experience a healthy recovery in corporate transient and group demand, including from improving convention calendars and recovering leisure travel in the cities driven by concerts and sporting events. San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Boston and Los Angeles led our urban strength, focusing on our 2023 hotel operating results. Occupancy rates increased 4.6 occupancy points to 67.7%. However, this level is still well below our pre-pandemic occupancy of 81% in 2019, and our peak occupancy of 85% in 2016. This gap highlights our portfolio's significant remaining growth potential, particularly at our urban properties, which are on a promising recovery path in 2023. Our other urban hotels achieved an occupancy rate of 68.4%, marking a 5.5 percentage point increase from the previous year, yet is still 15 percentage points below 2019 levels. Washington DC led the recovery with a significant 15 point rise to 64%, up from 49% in 2022. Services Co. also showed substantial improvement with occupancy climbing 61% from 47% in 2020 to our West Los Angeles portfolio, also managed to achieve significant occupancy growth in 23, increasing from 64% to 73% despite facing challenges from entertainment, industry strikes and adverse weather conditions that significantly affected demand. Our Boston portfolio, our largest urban market by EBITDA achieved 78% occupancy similar to last year, and Boston represents the market with the highest occupancy levels in our urban markets, yet it remains well below the 80% level achieved in 2019 during the fourth quarter. At our urban hotels, weekday occupancy rates rose by four percentage points to 64%, while weekend occupancies increased by more than two percentage points to 69%. This demonstrates that the uptick in demand was powered by both business and leisure travel. These are positive indicators heading into 2024. For 2023, our resorts maintained their strong performance with occupancy rates rising by approximately two percentage points to 65.8% despite the negative impact of significant disruptive redevelopments at Assante Alicja Jekyll Island Club Resort and Southernmost Resort in Key West during the year, like our urban hotels, our resorts have also have substantial opportunity to regain lost occupancy from 2019 because occupancy achieved 74.4% in 2019, 8.5 points above 2023. In the fourth quarter, our resorts benefited from increased business group demand, as evidenced by the one percentage point rise in weekday resort occupancies over the comparable prior year period. And we can reserve rates surged by seven points to 74.6%, highlighting the enduring appeal of leisure travel and attractiveness of our redeveloped and repositioned resorts. Despite a 9.3% decrease in average rates during 2023, there is a trend towards rate stabilization for the more modest 4.9% decline in the fourth quarter. Even with this normalization, our resort room rates in 2023 remain 40% or $108 higher on average that in 2019 across the portfolio, same-property RevPAR for 2023. So our 4.2% increase year over year increase, while same-property total RevPAR grew by 5.9% indicated continued strong non-room revenue growth along substantial occupancy improvements. This progress was achieved despite an approximate 113 basis point negative impact from renovations, showcasing our portfolio's robustness and potential for future growth.

謝謝你，唐娜，祝大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天加入我的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Jon Bortz 和我們的聯合總裁兼首席投資長湯姆費雪 (Tom Fisher)。但在我們開始之前，請注意，今天的評論僅於 2020 年 2 月 22 日生效，因為我們的評​​論包括聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與我們的評論有重大差異。請參閱我們最新的SEC 文件，以了解潛在風險因素的詳細討論，並參閱我們的網站，以了解本次電話會議期間提到的非GAAP 財務指標的調節表，以及2023 年，我們的投資組合繼續從大流行的負面影響中恢復過來。這證明了我們酒店團隊和營運合作夥伴的奉獻精神、創新精神和韌性。他們的傑出貢獻有助於推動我們的投資組合在 2023 年的成長和復甦，我們感謝他們的支持和辛勤工作。我們很高興報告 2023 年良好的營運和財務業績，調整後 EBITDA 達到 3.564 億美元，比第四季度我們的預期上限高出 650 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 增至 6330 萬美元。我們調整後的每股營運資金也超出了我們的預期，即第四季度每股 1.60 美元，第四季度每股 0.21 美元，比我們第四季度預期的上限高出每股 0.07 美元。第四季好於預期的業績得益於我們的城市酒店。我們繼續經歷企業短期和團體需求的健康復甦，包括改善會議日曆以及恢復由音樂會和體育賽事推動的城市休閒旅行。舊金山、華盛頓特區、波士頓和洛杉磯引領我們的城市實力，並專注於我們 2023 年的飯店營運表現。入住率上升 4.6 個百分點，達到 67.7%。然而，這一水平仍遠低於 2019 年疫情爆發前 81% 的入住率，以及 2016 年 85% 的峰值入住率。這一差距凸顯了我們的投資組合剩餘的巨大成長潛力，尤其是我們的城市物業，這些物業在 2023 年將迎來光明的復甦之路。我們其他城市飯店的入住率為68.4%，較上年增加5.5個百分點，但仍比2019年水準低15個百分點。華盛頓特區引領復甦，從 2022 年的 49% 大幅上升 15 個百分點，達到 64%。Services Co. 的西洛杉磯投資組合也表現出顯著的改善，入住率從 2020 年的 47% 上升了 61%，儘管面臨娛樂、行業罷工和惡劣的天氣條件嚴重影響了需求。我們的波士頓投資組合是按EBITDA 計算的最大城市市場，其入住率達到了78%，與去年相似，波士頓代表了我們城市市場中入住率最高的市場，但仍遠低於2019 年第四季達到的80% 的水平。在我們的城市飯店，平日入住率上升了四個百分點，達到 64%，而週末入住率則上升了兩個多百分點，達到 69%。這表明需求的增長是由商務和休閒旅行推動的。這些都是進入 2024 年的正面指標。2023 年，我們的度假村仍保持強勁表現，入住率上升約兩個百分點，達到65.8%，儘管年內阿桑特·阿里恰傑基爾島俱樂部度假村和基韋斯特最南端度假村（如我們的城市酒店）遭受重大破壞性重建帶來負面影響我們的度假村也有很大機會恢復 2019 年以來失去的入住率，因為 2019 年入住率達到 74.4%，比 2023 年高出 8.5 個百分點。第四季度，我們的度假村受惠於業務團體需求的增加，平日度假村入住率較上年同期上升了一個百分點就證明了這一點。我們的預訂率飆升了七個百分點，達到 74.6%，凸顯了休閒旅遊的持久吸引力以及我們重新開發和重新定位的度假村的吸引力。儘管 2023 年平均利率下降 9.3%，但第四季利率有趨於穩定的趨勢，下降幅度較小，為 4.9%。即使實現這種正常化，我們整個投資組合 2023 年的度假村房價仍比 2019 年平均高出 40%，即 108 美元，即 2023 年相同酒店的 RevPAR。因此，我們年增 4.2%，而同酒店總 RevPAR 成長 5.9%，顯示非客房收入持續強勁成長，入住率大幅提高。儘管翻修造成約 113 個基點的負面影響，但仍取得了這一進展，展示了我們投資組合的穩健性和未來成長的潛力。

Our urban properties experienced a significant uplift in 2023 with a 9.3% increase in RevPAR and an 11.3% rise in total RevPAR. Our resort RevPAR declined by 6.5% from 2022, but total RevPAR decreased by just 2.8% as healthy non-room spending and occupancy gains helped mitigate the room rate decline. For Q4, total RevPAR increased by 5.7% with our urban properties realizing 8.8% gain in resorts flattish with a 0.4% decline for 2023. Same-property EBITDA came in at $350.9 million with Q4 at $66.6 million, exceeding the top end of our outlook by $3.6 million. Thanks again to better than expected urban demand recovery in Q4 during 2023, our hotel EBITDA experienced several challenges that impacted our performance, including renovation disruptions, which we estimated had a negative impact of 12.7 million. Additionally, severe adverse weather events in the LA writers and actors strikes contribute to an estimated negative $3.5 million impact. However, these negative effects were significantly offset by approximately $12 million worth of real estate tax credits and general liability insurance savings. Consequently, the net negative impact of these onetime items on hotel EBITDA totaled approximately 5.5 million. We expect significant additional real estate tax credits as we achieve successful tax assessment appeals over the next few years. However, the timing is hard to forecast, so we have not included any in our 2024 outlook. Hotel operating expenses were effectively managed in Q4 with combined departmental and undistributed expenses up just 5.2% versus a 5.8% total revenue increase and on a per occupied room basis decreased by 0.3%. Same property EBITDA margins came in at 21.1%, which were flat to last year. Our Q4 margins would have increased 122 basis points more, if not for the prior year. Real estate tax credits that benefited EBITDA and EBITDA margins overall, year-over-year growth rate in our total hotel operating expenses, excluding property taxes, has declined materially over the year from 27%, 27.8% up in Q1 to 10.2% in Q2, 5.4% in Q. 3% and 5% in Q4. All while growing occupancy can significantly in other revenues like food and beverage even more significantly.

2023 年，我們的城市物業經歷了顯著提升，每間可用房 (RevPAR) 增長了 9.3%，總每間可用房 (RevPAR) 增長了 11.3%。我們度假村的 RevPAR 較 2022 年下降了 6.5%，但總 RevPAR 僅下降了 2.8%，因為健康的非客房支出和入住率成長幫助緩解了房價下降的趨勢。第四季度，總 RevPAR 成長了 5.7%，其中我們的城市物業實現了 8.8% 的成長，而度假村則持平，而 2023 年將下降 0.4%。第四季相同房產 EBITDA 為 3.509 億美元，為 6,660 萬美元，比我們預期的上限高出 360 萬美元。再次感謝 2023 年第四季城市需求復甦優於預期，我們的飯店 EBITDA 經歷了影響我們業績的多項挑戰，包括裝修中斷，我們估計這造成了 1,270 萬元的負面影響。此外，嚴重的惡劣天氣事件導致洛杉磯作家和演員罷工，估計造成 350 萬美元的負面影響。然而，這些負面影響被價值約 1200 萬美元的房地產稅收抵免和一般責任保險節省所抵消。因此，這些一次性項目對酒店 EBITDA 的淨負面影響總計約為 550 萬美元。隨著我們在未來幾年成功完成稅務評估上訴，我們預計將獲得大量額外的房地產稅收抵免。然而，具體時間很難預測，因此我們沒有將任何內容納入 2024 年的展望中。第四季飯店營運支出有效管理，部門和未分配支出合計僅成長 5.2%，而總收入成長 5.8%，每間入住客房下降 0.3%。同期房地產 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.1%，與去年持平。如果不是去年，我們第四季的利潤率將會增加 122 個基點。房地產稅收抵免有利於EBITDA 和EBITDA 利潤率，總體而言，我們酒店總營運費用（不包括財產稅）的同比增長率已大幅下降，從第一季的27%、第一季的27.8% 下降到第二季的10.2% ，第 5 季為 5.4%。第 4 季為 3% 和 5%。同時，入住率的成長可以顯著增加食品和飲料等其他收入。

This highlights our success in mitigating cost pressures across the portfolio and our teams are proud to have achieved these positive results year over year. We continue to see an overall reduction in inflationary headwinds. Wage rate pressures have been reduced materially year over year, while our properties remain appropriately staffed. And in 2023, we invested $132 million into our portfolio, which was primarily focused across six major redevelopment projects, including Margaritaville, San Diego Gaslamp, Hilton Gaslamp, a sound sale of REO, Jekyll Island Club Resort, southernmost, Key West and Newport Harbor Harbor Island resorts.

這突顯了我們在減輕整個產品組合的成本壓力方面所取得的成功，我們的團隊為逐年取得這些積極成果而感到自豪。我們繼續看到通膨阻力總體減少。工資壓力逐年大幅降低，而我們的物業仍配備適當的人員。2023 年，我們向投資組合投資了1.32 億美元，主要集中在六個主要再開發項目，包括瑪格麗塔維爾、聖地亞哥瓦斯燈普、希爾頓瓦斯燈普、REO 健全出售、傑基爾島俱樂部度假村、最南端、基韋斯特和紐波特港海港島度假村。

Looking ahead to 2024, we are posting this fleet three pivotal product projects, the comprehensive $49 million transformation and upscaling of Newport Harbor Island Resort, the $26 million luxury reposition of the Santiago via Hotel and Spa, and a 20 million first phase of the additional alternative lodging clamping units, cabins, villas and infrastructure at skin me alive. We anticipate completing all these projects in the second quarter, marking a significant milestone in our comprehensive $540 million multiyear strategic capital reinvestment program it's important to note that the vast majority of these returns on these recent investments have not yet been realized, but we anticipate significant improvements in market share and cash flow as they ramp up and stabilize. And as Dieter was so beautifully saying at our opening some today, our properties are coming out in 2020 for these major redevelopment disruptions are behind us and the benefits of these major investment dollars are to come. Also, our cost CapEx requirements are set to decrease markedly to between 85 and 90 million in 2024, shifting focus to our PI beach resort and club in Naples. We're happy to report that the restoration of the 79 room beach house pool complex is expected to be substantially complete next week or two. This is the last of the rebuilding efforts following the extensive damage from Hurricane in the resort and club was great and it's better than ever for Fortis to ramp up quickly with our restored product. As noted in last night's earnings release, we anticipate recognizing 11 million business interruption proceeds in 2024 from applies loss income for the second half of 2023 in early 2024. This has been incorporated into our 24 outlook that BI. will impact adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FFO per night same-property EBITDA. This compares to the 33 million of BI. recognized in 2023 of our disposition strategy and 2023 was successfully executed with seven property sales generating over 330 million in gross proceeds. The aggregate sales proceeds reflected a 20.2 times EBITDA multiple and a 4.2% NOI cap rate. Proceeds from our property sales were used to pay down over $179 million of debt and for accretive repurchases of common and preferred shares from the start of 2023. Through the end of January 2024, we repurchased approximately 6.8 million common shares at an average price of $14.7 including over 318,000 common shares recently purchased in January at an average price of $15.69. We also purchased the 2 million shares of our Series H preferred equity shares at an average price of $15.90 per share, which is a 36% discount to the par value of the series with 1 million shares repurchased at the end of 2022. At $16, a 30% discount is a discount on par value, and 1 million of these shares were repurchased in Q4 23 at $15.79, a 37% discount following our debt paydowns and the extension of 300 semi 300, 57 million of bank term loans out to 2028.

展望2024 年，我們將為這支船隊發布三個關鍵產品項目：紐波特港島度假村耗資4,900 萬美元的全面改造和升級、聖地亞哥酒店和水療中心耗資2,600 萬美元的豪華重新定位，以及耗資2,000 萬美元的附加項目第一階段皮我活著的替代住宿夾緊單元、小木屋、別墅和基礎設施。我們預計在第二季完成所有這些項目，這標誌著我們全面的5.4 億美元多年戰略資本再投資計劃的一個重要里程碑，值得注意的是，這些近期投資的絕大多數回報尚未實現，但我們預計會有顯著的回報。隨著市場佔有率和現金流的增加和穩定，市場佔有率和現金流量將會改善。正如迪特 (Dieter) 今天在我們的開幕式上所說的那樣，我們的房產將於 2020 年推出，因為這些重大的重建幹擾已經過去，這些重大投資的收益即將到來。此外，到 2024 年，我們的成本資本支出要求將顯著降低至 85 至 9000 萬美元，將重點轉移到我們那不勒斯的 PI 海灘度假村和俱樂部。我們很高興地報告，擁有 79 個房間的海濱別墅泳池綜合體的修復預計將在下週或兩週內基本完成。這是繼颶風對度假村和俱樂部造成嚴重破壞後的最後一次重建工作，富通比以往任何時候都更能透過我們修復的產品迅速崛起。正如昨晚的財報中所指出的，我們預計將在 2024 年初從 2023 年下半年的應用損失收入中確認 2024 年 1100 萬美元的業務中斷收益。這已納入我們的 BI 24 展望中。將影響調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每晚同酒店 EBITDA 的 FFO。相比之下，BI 為 3300 萬。我們在 2023 年確認了我們的處置策略，並在 2023 年成功執行了 7 項房地產銷售，總收益超過 3.3 億美元。總銷售收益反映了 20.2 倍的 EBITDA 倍數和 4.2% 的 NOI 上限。我們的房地產銷售收入用於償還超過 1.79 億美元的債務，並從 2023 年初開始增加普通股和優先股的回購。截至 2024 年 1 月底，我們以平均價格 14.7 美元回購了約 680 萬股普通股，其中包括最近在 1 月以平均價格 15.69 美元購買的超過 318,000 股普通股。我們還以每股 15.90 美元的平均價格購買了 200 萬股 H 系列優先股，這比 2022 年底回購的 100 萬股該系列的面值折讓了 36%。16 美元，30% 的折扣是面值的折扣，其中100 萬股股票在23 年第4 季以15.79 美元的價格回購，這是在我們償還債務和延長300 semi 300、5700 萬銀行定期貸款後的37% 折扣到 2028 年。

Our next meaningful debt maturity is the $410 million bank term loan maturing in October 2025. You should anticipate that this maturity will be reduced and address from free cash flow and potentially proceeds from additional property sales, additional debt market activities or from our CAD650 million undrawn unsecured credit facility.

我們的下一個有意義的債務到期是 4.1 億美元的銀行定期貸款，將於 2025 年 10 月到期。您應該預期該期限將會縮短，並透過自由現金流以及額外房地產銷售、額外債務市場活動或我們未提取的無擔保信貸額度的 6.5 億加元的潛在收益來解決。

And with that comprehensive update, I'd like to turn the call over to John. Tom?

有了全面的更新，我想把電話轉給約翰。湯姆？

Thanks, Ray, and good morning, everybody. I'm going to focus my comments on two topics. First, what we've seen in the industry most recently and what we expect for this year in terms of the industry performance, and second, how that translates into the assumptions behind our company's outlook for Q1 and for full year 2024.

謝謝，雷，大家早安。我將集中評論兩個主題。首先，我們最近在行業中看到了什麼，以及我們對今年行業表現的預期；其次，這如何轉化為我們公司第一季和 2024 年全年前景背後的假設。

As to the hotel industry, I believe the has reported performance in the second half of 2023 and so far in 2024, clearly evidences a softening in overall demand, primarily in the mid to lower segments, perhaps indicating financial sensitivities in the middle to lower socio economic demand segments likely resulting from the impacts of inflation, the reduction or elimination of extra savings from pandemic era, government transfer payments and the dramatic increase in consumer credit rates. Perhaps it's just difficult comps for the middle to lower price-point hotels as others have suggested. But total industry demand hasn't exceeded restricted supply growth since March of last year, and it's been negative seven out of the last 10 months as weaker overall industry performance has occurred at the same time that convention group business transient, particularly larger corporations and international inbound travel, all continued to recover. And while leisure travel remains healthy, the top 25 markets have outperformed the other markets by a wide margin and the urban markets, which have previously been slower to recover have performed by far the best. And while this softening demand has been almost completely focused on the mid to lower segments so far, we're not so naive to think that there can't be an impact in the higher segments. At some point, we're humble and we recognize we've never been through a pandemic and recovery before let alone one where the Fed continues to work aggressively to slow down the economy to bring inflation down to its target so far so good as the economy has held up and everyone who wants a job seems to have one yet. We remain wary, though still cautiously optimistic about 2024. It's extremely difficult to forecast how these conflicting economic waves will impact each other as we move forward in 2024, just as it was in 2023. All we can do is plan for different scenarios and monitor all of the macro and micro indicators very closely, and we'll let you know when we see the trends changing. As a result of this ongoing uncertainty, we plan to continue to provide monthly operating updates given the weak overall trends over the last 10 months, including January and also for February. So far this year, we expect industry RevPAR for 2024 to be flat to up 2% This forecast also assumes a so-called soft landing for the economy. We believe the Fed will remain diligent in its inflation lowering mission this year and with expectations for rate cuts recently pushed later into the year with fewer overall cuts now expected, we believe forecasts by the institutional prognosticators in our industry now seem a little optimistic, at least they due to us we do believe that business travel, both group and transient, along with international inbound travel, will continue to recover and these demand segments will continue to benefit the upper upscale segment and the urban markets primarily and thus the top 25 markets versus the weaker other markets.

至於酒店業，我認為其 2023 年下半年和 2024 年迄今為止的業績報告清楚地表明整體需求疲軟，主要是中低端市場，這或許表明中低端社會的財務敏感性經濟需求部分可能是由於通貨膨脹、疫情時期額外儲蓄的減少或消除、政府轉移支付和消費信貸利率大幅上升的影響而產生的。也許正如其他人所建議的那樣，對於中低價位的酒店來說，這只是困難的比較。但自去年3 月以來，產業總需求並未超過限制性供應成長，且在過去10 個月中，有7 個月為負數，因為在會議集團業務瞬息萬變的同時，整體產業表現疲軟，尤其是大型企業和國際企業。入境旅遊，一切繼續恢復。儘管休閒旅遊依然健康，但前 25 個市場的表現大幅優於其他市場，而此前復甦較慢的城市市場迄今表現最佳。雖然到目前為止，需求疲軟幾乎完全集中在中低階市場，但我們並不天真地認為高端市場不會受到影響。在某種程度上，我們很謙虛，我們認識到我們以前從未經歷過大流行和復甦，更不用說聯準會繼續積極努力減緩經濟，將通膨降至迄今為止的目標。經濟保持穩定，每個想要工作的人似乎都已經找到工作了。我們仍然保持警惕，但對 2024 年仍持謹慎樂觀態度。當我們邁向 2024 年時，就像 2023 年一樣，很難預測這些相互衝突的經濟浪潮將如何相互影響。我們所能做的就是針對不同的場景進行規劃，並密切監控所有宏觀和微觀指標，當我們看到趨勢發生變化時，我們會通知您。由於這種持續的不確定性，鑑於過去 10 個月（包括 1 月和 2 月）整體趨勢疲軟，我們計劃繼續提供每月營運更新。今年到目前為止，我們預計 2024 年產業 RevPAR 將持平至成長 2%。該預測還假設經濟出現所謂的軟著陸。我們相信，聯準會今年將繼續努力履行其降低通膨的使命，並且由於最近對降息的預期推遲到今年晚些時候，而目前預計總體降息幅度較小，我們認為我們行業的機構預測者的預測現在似乎有點樂觀，至少是我們的功勞，我們確實相信，商務旅行（無論是團體旅行還是短期旅行）以及國際入境旅行將繼續復甦，這些需求領域將繼續有利於高端市場和城市市場（主要是前25 個市場）與疲軟的其他市場相比。

I also want to point out that overall industry performance in 2023 and so far in 2024 has substantially benefited from the very strong performance of Las Vegas, a large, volatile and influential market affecting the total industry numbers, excluding Las Vegas. The rest of the industry's performance was softer in 2023. And by our calculations, that weaker performance equated to 48 basis points or just shy of 1.5% and remember, the public lodging rates and other institutional lodging investors generally don't own in Las Vegas. We would urge STR. to publish industry numbers on a weekly monthly and annual basis that excludes Las Vegas. So we can all get a clear picture of the overall industry in which we live and invest. Las Vegas until recently was never included in the industry data and reports. So this is a new issue. Given our forecast for the industry's performance for 2024, we expect to do substantially better than the industry given our 60% or so concentration in major urban markets, including slower to recover markets, which have been accelerating. And we expect to do better due to the lack of material disruption from renovations and repositionings in 24, which will soon be complete and from gaining RevPAR share from our from our many completed major repositionings and redevelopments over the last several years, given our industry outlook for RevPAR growth of 0% to 2%. We're forecasting our same-property RevPAR to increase 200 basis points more so in the range of 2% to 4% we expect most or all of it will come in occupancy gain. We're forecasting that our Total same property revenue will increase in the range of 3% to 4.6% and as a reminder, the play is not included in the same-property numbers for 2023 or 2024. However, if we were to include it, the Playa would add about 50 basis points of RevPAR growth to our outlook. Encouragingly, our group pace is looking good for 24 as of the beginning of February, group room night pace for this year was ahead. It was ahead of the same time last year by 12.5% with ADR pacing 2% ahead of last year for a total group revenue pace advantage of 14.7%. Transient room nights are also pacing ahead of 23 by 9.4%, with rate lower by 1.9%. Total group and transient pace for 24 was ahead by 11% in room nights and total revenues with ADR flat year over year as we continue to recover significant occupancy while total pace is strong. We caution that booking trends have lengthened and continued to normalize. So these percentages will naturally decline as more businesses put on the books. Not surprisingly, our urban pace is stronger than our resort pace, but both are significantly ahead of last year. Right now. Q3 has the strongest pace advantage followed by Q4, then Q2 and then Q1, we expect Group will represent roughly 28 or 29% of our overall mix, which is up slightly from last year given a slower Q1 pace. Our forecast for Q1 is for our same property RevPAR to be flat to up 2%, with total same-property revenues higher by 0.8% to 2.8% weather on the West Coast and in South Florida has not been favorable so far this year, particularly in February. So even as we gain ground from not having much comparative negative impact from our major renovations and redevelopments in Q1, our resorts have suffered from softer leisure demand due to the weather. While January RevPAR growth increased a healthy 5.1%. February is on track to be roughly flat. Unfortunately, March's performance will be negatively impacted by the last week of the month due to the earlier arrival of the Easter holiday this year. But April, on the other hand, should benefit from this shift for 2024. We expect same property total revenue growth to exceed same-property RevPAR growth as it did in 23 due to strong food and beverage and other revenue growth, some of which is a result of the continuing recovery in group and some as a result of the significant remerchandising we've done at so many of our properties where we've added more meeting space, event venues and bar outlets improved some of our outdoor event and restaurant venues to increase the length of their outdoor operating seasons and reconfigured and reconcepting restaurants to focus on increasing banquet and catering business and driving higher revenues and profits for the year are forecasting same property expense growth in the range of 4.7% at the low end of our total revenue growth range to 5.3% at the higher end of the range. However, if we exclude the impact of 9 million of real estate tax credits in 2023 to get a better view or the underlying expense growth rate. It's about 100 basis points lower, implying an increase of 3.8% to 4.3%. Keep in mind that all of our RevPAR growth will likely come from occupancy growth and food and beverage growth should outpace RevPAR growth due to increases in group business and total occupancy, both of which come with significant marginal expenses. Our expense growth assumptions are based on an expectation that combined wages and benefits will increase in the 4% range, give or take. Most other expenses will increase at a lower rate. Energy and insurance will grow at a much faster rate and real estate taxes will show a much greater increase due to the 9 million of tax true ups in 2023. We expect the combination of suppliers' operating performance and BI. accruals will likely be roughly equal between 2023 and 2024. So no big headwind as we had previously feared. We're extremely excited about the pending full completion and reopening of LaPlaya Beach Resort and the rebuild property looks fantastic. We'll be having a tour of both La Playa and on fifth in Naples for investors and sell-side analysts on the Wednesday afternoon following cities read Conference in Hollywood, Florida. So feel free to let us know if you'd like to join us will be transporting folks from the Diplomat supplier was on track to deliver the highest EBITDA in our portfolio in 2022 before the hurricane hit. So it's quite important to our future growth. Not only are we excited about appliance operations getting back to normal, but we're also very excited about the significant upside throughout our portfolio following our half $1 billion plus investment program over the last few years, whenever we get over this macro economic Hill related to the Fed's efforts to drive down inflation to its 2% target. We expect to experience a significant upside in our markets over a multiyear period that will be powered by little to no supply growth growth in our markets, while economic growth drives up travel demand.

我還想指出，2023 年和2024 年迄今的整體產業表現很大程度上受益於拉斯維加斯的強勁表現，拉斯維加斯是一個龐大、波動且有影響力的市場，影響著除拉斯維加斯之外的行業總數。2023 年，該產業其他產業的表現較為疲軟。根據我們的計算，較弱的表現相當於 48 個基點或略低於 1.5%，請記住，公共住宿費率和其他機構住宿投資者通常不擁有拉斯維加斯的住宿費。我們強烈建議 STR。每週、每月和每年發布不包括拉斯維加斯的行業數據。這樣我們就可以清楚地了解我們所生活和投資的整個產業。拉斯維加斯直到最近才被納入行業數據和報告中。所以這是一個新問題。鑑於我們對該行業 2024 年業績的預測，考慮到我們 60% 左右的市場集中度在主要城市市場，包括復甦速度較慢但正在加速復甦的市場，我們預計該行業的表現將大幅優於行業。考慮到我們的行業前景，我們預計會做得更好，因為24 年的翻新和重新定位不會造成重大干擾，該工程即將完成，並且從我們過去幾年完成的許多重大重新定位和重新開發中獲得RevPAR 份額。 RevPAR 成長 0% 至 2%。我們預測同一飯店的 RevPAR 將增加 200 個基點，因此在 2% 到 4% 的範圍內，我們預計大部分或全部將來自入住率成長。我們預測，我們的同地產總收入將成長 3% 至 4.6%，需要提醒的是，該劇並未包含在 2023 年或 2024 年的同地產數據中。然而，如果我們將其納入其中，Playa 將為我們的展望增加約 50 個基點的 RevPAR 成長。令人鼓舞的是，截至 2 月初，我們的團體進度在 24 小時內看起來不錯，今年的團體客房夜間進度領先。比去年同期領先 12.5%，其中 ADR 增速比去年同期領先 2%，集團總收入增速優勢達 14.7%。臨時間夜數也比 23 月提早 9.4%，價格下降 1.9%。24 家飯店的團體和臨時住宿夜數和總收入同比增長 11%，平均房價同比持平，因為我們在總體增速強勁的情況下繼續大幅恢復入住率。我們警告說，預訂趨勢已經延長並繼續正常化。因此，隨著越來越多的企業入賬，這些百分比自然會下降。毫不奇怪，我們的城市步伐強於度假村步伐，但兩者都明顯領先去年。現在。第三季的速度優勢最強，其次是第四季、第二季和第一季度，我們預期集團將占我們整體組合的大約28% 或29%，鑑於第一季速度較慢，這個數字比去年略有上升。我們對第一季度的預測是，同一房產的 RevPAR 將持平至增長 2%，同一房產總收入將增長 0.8% 至 2.8%。 今年迄今為止，西海岸和南佛羅裡達州的天氣狀況不佳，尤其是二月裡。因此，儘管我們在第一季的重大整修和重建中沒有受到太大的相對負面影響，但我們的度假村卻因天氣原因而受到休閒需求疲軟的影響。1 月 RevPAR 成長健康，達 5.1%。二月預計將大致持平。不幸的是，由於今年復活節假期提前到來，3月份的表現將受到本月最後一周的負面影響。但另一方面，4 月應該會從 2024 年的轉變中受益。我們預計，由於餐飲和其他收入強勁增長，同酒店總收入增長將超過 23 年同酒店 RevPAR 增長，其中一些是由於集團持續復甦的結果，一些是由於顯著增長的結果我們對許多酒店進行了重新行銷，增加了更多的會議空間、活動場地和酒吧店，改進了一些戶外活動和餐廳場地，以增加其戶外營業季節的長度，並重新配置和重新設計餐廳以集中精力關於增加宴會和餐飲業務並推動今年收入和利潤的成長，預計物業費用成長將在總收入成長範圍低端的4.7% 至高端的5.3% 之間。然而，如果我們排除 2023 年 900 萬房地產稅收抵免的影響，才能更了解潛在的費用成長率。下降約 100 個基點，意味著成長 3.8% 至 4.3%。請記住，我們所有的 RevPAR 成長可能都來自入住率成長，而由於集團業務和總入住率的增加，食品和飲料的成長應該超過 RevPAR 的成長，而這兩者都伴隨著巨大的邊際費用。我們的費用成長假設是基於薪資和福利合計將成長 4%（無論有多少）的預期。大多數其他費用將以較低的速度增長。能源和保險將以更快的速度增長，由於 2023 年稅收真實增加 900 萬，房地產稅將出現更大的增長。我們預計供應商的經營業績和BI相結合。 2023 年至 2024 年的應計費用可能大致相等。因此，並不存在我們之前擔心的大逆風。我們對拉普拉亞海灘度假村即將全面竣工並重新開放感到非常興奮，重建後的房產看起來棒極了。星期三下午，在佛羅裡達州好萊塢各城市宣讀會議之後，我們將參觀拉普拉亞和那不勒斯的第五個城市，供投資者和賣方分析師參觀。因此，如果您願意加入我們，請隨時告訴我們，我們將運送來自 Diplomat 供應商的人員，該供應商預計將在 2022 年颶風襲擊之前實現我們投資組合中最高的 EBITDA。所以這對我們未來的發展非常重要。我們不僅對家電運營恢復正常感到興奮，而且對我們的整個投資組合在過去幾年超過 10 億美元的投資計劃之後的顯著上升感到非常興奮，每當我們克服與宏觀經濟相關的山丘問題時聯準會努力將通膨壓低至2% 的目標。我們預計，在多年的時間內，我們的市場將出現顯著的上漲，這將由我們市場的供應成長幾乎沒有成長所推動，而經濟成長將推動旅行需求的成長。

If we look back to the beginning of the last cycle, and you can see these results in our investor presentation.

如果我們回顧上一個週期的開始，您可以在我們的投資者演示中看到這些結果。

Total EBITDA for today's current portfolio doubled between 2010 and 2015. So in this next cycle, we expect urban and resort supply will be more restricted and slower to be added than in the last cycle. We also believe demand will grow in a healthy and profitable way due to strong economic growth, driven by significant technological and medical developments, a massive onshoring effort in various industries growth coming from the green energy transition and positive secular trends related to travel these positive fundamentals in totality, coupled with a moderating inflation outlook and significant benefits from the completion of our strategic redevelopment program should lead to very strong bottom line performance for us over an extended number of years. We just need to get over this macro hump.

目前投資組合的 EBITDA 總額在 2010 年至 2015 年間翻了一番。因此，在下一個週期中，我們預計城市和度假村的供應將比上一個週期受到更多限制且增加速度更慢。我們也認為，由於技術和醫療重大發展推動的強勁經濟成長、綠色能源轉型帶來的各行業增長的大規模本土化努力以及與旅行相關的積極長期趨勢這些積極的基本面，需求將以健康和獲利的方式成長。總體而言，加上通膨前景溫和，以及完成我們的策略重建計劃帶來的顯著效益，應該會在很長一段時間內為我們帶來非常強勁的底線業績。我們只需要克服這個宏觀難題。

That completes our remarks we've been out. We'd now be I be happy to answer your questions.

我們的發言到此結束。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

So Donna, you may proceed with the Q&A.

唐娜，您可以繼續進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Duane Pfennigwerth，Evercore ISI。

Thanks for the time for just on them. I'll repeat the question and I know you're maybe you're a little bit less levered to it, but on the group segment, do you do lean on group differently than you did pre pandemic given changes in underlying seasonality? And maybe John, just broadly, how would you characterize the setup on entering 2024 from a visibility perspective? How does this forecasting environment feel versus a quote-unquote, normal time pre-pandemic.

感謝您抽出時間來關注他們。我會重複這個問題，我知道你可能不太適應它，但在團體部分，考慮到潛在季節性的變化，你對團體的依賴是否與疫情前不同？也許約翰，從廣義上講，您如何從可見性的角度來描述進入 2024 年的情況？與大流行前的正常時間相比，這種預測環境感覺如何？

And so I think the question of do we lean on group differently this year versus last year or or even pre pandemic, I'd say it's really driven by each individual properties situation and what's going on in those particular markets. So give give San Francisco, let's look at that as an example, with a softer convention calendar this year. We're leaning on all the other segments, including in-house group, more so than we would in a year where we have significantly greater convention activity in a market where the convention activity is up strongly like a market in San Diego. We may lean on group a little bit less than we have in prior years and tried to drive those transient customer rates. And so we can take advantage of the compression or the greater number of compression days in that market. So I don't think there's any general philosophy that's different in 24. But but each market and each property will behave a little bit differently.

因此，我認為今年我們對群體的依賴是否與去年甚至大流行前有所不同，我想說這實際上是由每個單獨的房地產情況以及這些特定市場正在發生的事情所驅動的。以舊金山為例，今年的會議行事曆較為柔和。我們對包括內部團體在內的所有其他細分市場的依賴程度超過了我們在會議活動大幅增加的市場（如聖地牙哥市場）中的會議活動明顯增加的一年。與前幾年相比，我們可能會減少對團體的依賴，並試圖提高這些短暫的客戶率。因此，我們可以利用該市場的壓縮或更多的壓縮天數。所以我不認為 24 小時有什麼不同的一般理念。但每個市場和每個房產的表現都會略有不同。

And then your question about setup. I mean, right now because group paces is so far ahead, I think the setup is pretty good. I mean, we expect to pick up another point in mix of group in the portfolio because of the strength of convention and our in-house group strength that we have compared to last year. And I think as we get into the year, what is the unknowable and the part that's hard to predict is what is short term group going to look like both in the month for the month in the quarter for the quarter, I mean we have probably less group on the books than perhaps other companies. I don't know others, we had about 60%, 62% of our are our forecasted group on the books heading into the beginning of February. And that's a little bit better than last year as evidenced by the pace. So I think the setup is good for the year. It's hard to forecast because as we normalize these trends and how much of this group was compared to last year? Was it because it was put on the books further out. And therefore, as we saw in some months last year, the short-term pickup was softer than the year before. So that's what makes it hard to forecast.

然後是關於設定的問題。我的意思是，現在因為團體配速遙遙領先，我認為設定非常好。我的意思是，由於與去年相比，我們的會議實力和我們內部團隊的實力，我們預計在投資組合中的團隊組合中會再獲得一點。我認為，當我們進入這一年時，不可知和難以預測的部分是短期集團在當月和季度的情況下會是什麼樣子，我的意思是我們可能有賬面上的集團可能比其他公司要少。我不知道其他人，我們有大約 60%、62% 的人是我們預測的 2 月初的人。從速度上就可以看出，這比去年好一些。所以我認為今年的設定是好的。很難預測，因為當我們將這些趨勢標準化時，與去年相比，這個群體中有多少人？是不是因為它被放在更遠的書本上？因此，正如我們在去年的幾個月中看到的那樣，短期回升比前一年更加疲軟。這就是預測變得困難的原因。

Appreciate the thoughts. Thank you.

欣賞這些想法。謝謝。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗銀行。

Hi, thank you. And I just wanted to ask a little bit maybe just what you're seeing on the transaction side of the market. It seems like that market's been a little bit challenging. But coming out of Alex, there was a lot of talk about how this year would improve significantly and maybe how you're thinking about potentially moving forward with additional asset sales? Or are you fairly happy with where the portfolio is?

嗨，謝謝你。我只是想問一下您在市場交易方面所看到的情況。看起來這個市場有點具有挑戰性。但是 Alex 提出了很多關於今年將如何顯著改善的討論，也許您正在考慮如何推進額外的資產銷售？或者您對投資組合的現況相當滿意嗎？

No, and on the pacemaker side, Tom Fisher, I would agree with you that I think the sentiment coming out of the analyst conference was pretty positive. I kind of look at it from the perspective that I think 2024 may be entering a transition year where last year there was a lot of interest of lack of lack of conviction this year. I think it's probably transitioning to a lot of interest, but building conviction. And I think part of that is given the fact that I think investors think that the worst is behind them in terms of that cost and that they can actually underwrite assets and underwrite debt cost and hopefully improving debt cost from that perspective. So I think overall, I think it's become the market's getting better, but it's getting better from a financing front for cash flowing yield assets with strong sponsorship. And so I think you'll continue to see a gravitation towards some smaller deals, which was kind of predominant in 2023. And also those deals that come are those assets that are in markets that have recovered as opposed to those markets that are laggard. Markets are still in recovery because I think both from a lender's perspective, an investor's perspective, it's all about cash flow and debt yields today. And then I think as it relates to our portfolio, I think we're happy with what we've done. But we continue to look at and we would engage in opportunities if it makes sense for us for additional dispositions.

不，在起搏器方面，湯姆費雪（Tom Fisher），我同意你的觀點，我認為分析師會議的情緒非常正面。我從這樣的角度看待這個問題：我認為 2024 年可能會進入一個過渡年，去年人們對這個問題充滿信心，但今年卻缺乏信心。我認為這可能會引起很多興趣，但會建立信念。我認為部分原因在於，我認為投資者認為就成本而言，最糟糕的時期已經過去，他們實際上可以承保資產和承保債務成本，並希望從這個角度改善債務成本。因此，我認為總體而言，我認為市場正在變得更好，但從具有強大贊助的現金流收益資產的融資方面來看，情況正在變得更好。因此，我認為您將繼續看到一些較小交易的吸引力，這在 2023 年佔據主導地位。此外，即將到來的交易是那些位於已復甦市場的資產，而不是那些處於落後市場的資產。市場仍在復甦中，因為我認為無論是從貸款人的角度還是投資者的角度來看，今天的一切都與現金流和債務收益率有關。然後我認為，由於這與我們的投資組合有關，我認為我們對我們所做的事情感到滿意。但我們會繼續尋找機會，如果對我們來說額外的配置有意義的話，我們會參與其中。

And I think that the interest in dispositions. And it is really strictly related to being able to generate proceeds that allow us to buy our stock back at such a large discount. So to the extent that the public private arbitrage opportunity goes away. I think our interest in selling assets generally goes away.

我認為興趣在於性格。這確實與能夠產生收益密切相關，使我們能夠以如此大的折扣回購我們的股票。因此，公私套利機會消失了。我認為我們對出售資產的興趣通常會消失。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

邁克爾貝利薩裡奧，貝爾德。

Morning everyone or morning and John, just with first quick question on CapEx and returns. Are you seeing any change in sort of the ramp up of performance post renovation post repositioning? And then for the projects that have been completed already, is there any updated view on timing or the time line of when you think those projects will reach stabilized returns?

大家早安，約翰，我想問第一個關於資本支出和回報的快速問題。您是否看到翻新後重新定位後性能提升方面有任何變化？那麼對於已經完成的項目，您認為這些項目何時能夠達到穩定回報，對於時間安排或時間軸是否有任何更新的看法？

Well, the biggest impact to the ramp up was the pandemic, not not surprisingly, for projects that were completed right before the pandemic hit there were some completed during quite a number completed during the pandemic and a few that have now been completed sort of if we're in the post pandemic period in this post-pandemic period, in general, it's probably anywhere from three to five years to ramp to full stabilization. And it really depends upon what are the structural changes on repositioned flag properties. So we're not so take the Hilton Gaslamp as a good example. It's one of the best locations, if not the best location in downtown San Diego all around it. It hadn't had capital that was in the single cell portfolio and hadn't had capital invested for almost 15 years. And our and we did an exhaustive repositioning of that property and it has some unique aspects including a I don't know, it's 30 some 20, some of suites and loss in a separate building from the main building that will ramp much quicker. And we're already seeing that here in the first quarter, even that'll ramp much quicker than where we we take a property like at Jekyll Island, and we've repositioned it higher. It's an independent property and it will just take longer. But ultimately, the repositioning should should end up at significantly higher stabilized returns because of the fact that it doesn't have an ADR sort of implied cap by its customer base like a branded property would. So they tend to take longer on the independent side in general and and they're much quicker on the branded side.

嗯，對成長的最大影響是大流行，這並不奇怪，對於在大流行爆發之前完成的項目來說，有一些是在大流行期間完成的，還有一些現在已經完成了，如果我們正處於大流行後時期，總的來說，可能需要三到五年的時間才能達到完全穩定。這實際上取決於重新定位的標誌屬性的結構變化是什麼。所以我們不以希爾頓瓦斯燈普酒店作為一個很好的例子。如果不是聖地牙哥市中心周圍最好的位置，它也是最好的位置之一。它沒有單細胞投資組合中的資本，並且已經有近 15 年沒有進行資本投資了。我們和我們對該房產進行了詳細的重新定位，它有一些獨特的方面，包括我不知道，它有30 到20 間，一些套房和損失在與主樓不同的獨立建築中，這將更快地增長。我們在第一季就已經看到了這一點，甚至比我們在傑基爾島購買房產時的成長速度要快得多，而且我們已經將其重新定位得更高。這是一個獨立的財產，只是需要更長的時間。但最終，重新定位應該會帶來顯著更高的穩定回報，因為它不像品牌資產那樣有客戶群隱含的 ADR 上限。因此，一般而言，他們在獨立方面往往需要更長的時間，而在品牌方面則要快得多。

The other thing that impacts. It obviously is the strength of the market. It's a lot easier to gain share in San Diego with the sole bars conversion to Margaritaville in a market that's strong where demand is increasing and everybody's not fighting over a sort of stable demand level in a market. So in a market like that, we would expect that to ramp more quickly in the market. So in general, that's that's what I would tell you. I don't obviously some things that were done years one or two years before the pandemic, they may not get to our share gains and those double digit returns, but they should get to mid single digit, if not higher, on a cash-on-cash basis.

另一件有影響力的事情。這顯然是市場的力量。在聖地牙哥，透過將唯一的酒吧轉換為瑪格麗塔維爾，在需求不斷增長的強勁市場中獲得份額要容易得多，而且每個人都不會爭奪市場中某種穩定的需求水平。因此，在這樣的市場中，我們預期市場成長速度會更快。所以總的來說，這就是我要告訴你的。我顯然不知道大流行前一兩年所做的一些事情，它們可能無法實現我們的股票收益和兩位數的回報，但它們應該在現金上達到中個位數，甚至更高。以現金支付。

So on the newer deals with demand already ramping up should should see higher returns.

因此，在需求已經上升的新交易中，應該會看到更高的回報。

Got it. Thanks. And then just one quick housekeeping item. Just on the real estate taxes, I think you mentioned 12 million of real estate credits last year as a one-time item. But then when you were talking about margins, you mentioned $9 million of impact. Can you square those two for us? Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。然後就是一件快速的家事用品。就房地產稅而言，我想你去年提到了1200萬房地產信貸作為一次性項目。但當您談論利潤時，您提到了 900 萬美元的影響。你能為我們計算這兩個數的平方嗎？謝謝。

Yes, there was GL and there's GL and the 12 million that that was mentioned in the script, but you might have just missed it was kind of the combining of the two but I didn't really focus on it or the on the royalty tax credit of 9 million.

是的，有 GL，有 GL 和劇本中提到的 1200 萬，但你可能只是錯過了它是兩者的結合，但我並沒有真正關注它或特許權使用費信用900萬。

And that would suggest point that out to trying to get the run rate in your models because that's more of a run rate because the credits tend to be lumpy and could represent multiple years. So by taking that out, which is what we are discussing that and call that that reduces our run rate of operating expenses by about 100 basis points lower than what was provided in the 2024 outlook.

這表明要嘗試在模型中獲取運行率，因為這更多的是運行率，因為學分往往是不穩定的並且可能代表多年。因此，透過剔除這一點，我們正在討論並稱之為，我們的營運費用運行率將比 2024 年展望中提供的低約 100 個基點。

And Mike, I think to our to the to the other comments we made, and we feel pretty positive about significant future assessment reductions and true ups and primarily on the in the West Coast markets, maybe to a lesser extent on the East Coast in a market like DC, but it just takes time. And part of the reason, sometimes the credits tend to be large is it's a multi-year, true up of an assessment that we over-accrued and overpaid until we achieve the success in the assessment. And clearly, we know values went down dramatically in a number of the markets on the West Coast. And it's just a lengthy process designed to stack the deck in the government's favor. So being persistent, the ultimately pays off.

麥克，我認為我們對我們所做的其他評論，我們對未來評估的大幅降低和真實的上升感到非常積極，主要是在西海岸市場，也許在較小程度上是在東海岸像DC這樣的市場，但這只是需要時間。有時，學分往往很大，部分原因是這是一個多年的、真實的評估，我們超額累積和超額支付，直到我們在評估中取得成功。顯然，我們知道西海岸許多市場的價值大幅下跌。這只是一個漫長的過程，旨在為政府做好準備。所以堅持不懈，最終會有回報。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Bill Crow, Raymond James.

比爾·克勞，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Very good morning or two quick questions from me. John, you talked about your expectation that the inbound outbound travel international travel deficit will narrow. And I'm curious whether that applies to inbound travel from Asia as well seems like it will be much more impactful to the West Coast market?

早安，或是我問兩個簡單的問題。約翰，您談到了您對入境出境旅遊國際旅遊逆差將縮小的預期。我很好奇這是否也適用於來自亞洲的入境旅遊，似乎對西海岸市場的影響更大？

Yes, Bill, I actually we do think it does. And if you if you look at the data, I think what it shows is you have a significant increase in Asia inbound. It's coming from Korea. It's coming from India and it's coming from Japan. And those are those are all three markets were later to begin the recovery as compared to the markets in Europe and a market like India. Many are forecasting will ultimately replace China from a size perspective, given the growth in the economic base and the population the large population in India and obviously the better relationship the US has with with the with India versus with China, we have seen significant increase in China. It's just off a very low base right now. So while it used to be clearly in the top five, it's not there right now, but the other markets seem to be are you picking up much of the slack, but not all of the slots.

是的，比爾，我確實認為確實如此。如果你看一下數據，我認為它顯示亞洲入境人數顯著增加。它來自韓國。它來自印度，也來自日本。與歐洲市場和印度等市場相比，這三個市場都較晚開始復甦。許多人預測，從規模的角度來看，印度最終將取代中國，考慮到印度經濟基礎和人口的成長，以及美國與印度的關係明顯優於與中國的關係，我們已經看到印度的經濟顯著增長。中國。現在它的基數非常低。因此，雖然它曾經明顯位居前五名，但現在已經不在了，但其他市場似乎是你填補了大部分空缺，但不是全部。

That's helpful. Just given all the changes to your portfolio, I know the order of importance for contribution to EBITDA has it's changed pretty dramatically over the last couple of years. Key West is now, I think, a top five market. I think if you looked at Florida, your four assets there and maybe throw Jekyll in Georgia into that, it seems like a lot of exposure to hurricane prone MARKETS. Sorry, are you comfortable with the exposure and that you have seen that reach?

這很有幫助。考慮到您的投資組合的所有變化，我知道對 EBITDA 貢獻的重要性順序在過去幾年中發生了相當大的變化。我認為基韋斯特現在是排名前五的市場。我認為，如果你看看佛羅裡達州，你那裡的四項資產，也許還有喬治亞州的傑基爾，你會發現，這似乎對颶風多發市場有很大的影響。抱歉，您對這次曝光感到滿意嗎？您是否已經看到了這樣的影響力？

We are comfortable. It's interesting as we as we analyze weather impacts and weather risk on a corporate basis through looking at the individual properties, what we find is there's There just aren't weather risks everywhere. They're just different kinds and some get more media attention than than others. But you know, heavy rains and flooding on the East Coast in the Midwest, I've been a pretty consistent over the last few years compared to where they used to be some fires on the West Coast, although being help last year and this year with the heavy rains, but heavy rains on the West Coast. There's their risk from those. We had a tropical storm morning in Southern California. We haven't had an 85 years, and we have some. We had an earthquake in Washington, D.C. There just seemed to be weather risks everywhere. And so we're comfortable with what we have in Florida. We think we bought the right properties in Florida. I think the rebuilding of LaPlaya will help mitigate any future damage based upon the way it's been rebuilt and the the effort to mitigate through strengthening the real estate. But I'd say today, yes, where we're comfortable with with where we stand in Florida, I'll yield the floor.

我們很舒服。有趣的是，當我們透過查看各個房產來分析公司基礎上的天氣影響和天氣風險時，我們發現並不是所有地方都存在天氣風險。它們只是類型不同，有些比其他更受到媒體關注。但你知道，中西部東海岸的大雨和洪水，與西海岸過去發生的一些火災相比，過去幾年我的情況相當穩定，儘管去年和今年都得到了幫助伴隨著大雨，但西海岸有大雨。他們面臨這些風險。我們在南加州經歷了熱帶風暴的早晨。我們還沒有度過85年，但我們已經有一些了。華盛頓特區發生了地震似乎到處都有天氣風險。所以我們對佛羅裡達州的情況感到滿意。我們認為我們在佛羅裡達州購買了合適的房產。我認為，根據重建方式以及透過加強房地產來減輕損害的努力，拉普拉亞的重建將有助於減輕未來的損害。但今天我想說，是的，如果我們對佛羅裡達州的立場感到滿意，我就會讓步。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Dori Castaigne, Wells Fargo.

多麗·卡斯塔涅，富國銀行。

And I think if you wind down your ROI projects midyear, what's a good run rate for CapEx? And how long would you expect to be able to maintain at those lower levels.

我認為，如果您在年中結束投資回報率項目，那麼資本支出的良好運作率是多少？您預計能夠維持在這些較低水準多久。

And while we've we've significantly redeveloped and comprehensive comprehensively renovated the vast majority of the portfolio, we think the run rates likely in the 50 to $60 million range on an annual basis from our non-major project capital in our 2024 plan is about 40 million. And and so that's a little lower given the number of projects that have been redone more recently. We also have been deferring some smaller ROI projects to retain capital in order to use some of that capital to buy back our stock at such a big discount because the returns are higher. So we do think those will ramp up a little bit over time from where this year's other capital is being invested and what the total number is. But yes, for the next few years, outside of whenever we decide to we're able to proceed with the conversion of Paradise Point to Margaritaville, we think the capital is going to be should be in that 50, 60 million range.

雖然我們已經對絕大多數投資組合進行了重大重新開發和全面改造，但我們認為 2024 年計劃中的非主要項目資本每年的運行率可能在 50 至 6000 萬美元之間約4000萬。考慮到最近重做的項目數量，這個數字要低一些。我們也推遲了一些較小的投資報酬率項目以保留資本，以便使用其中一些資本以如此大的折扣回購我們的股票，因為回報更高。因此，我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這些資金將比今年其他資本的投資地點和總數增加。但是，是的，在接下來的幾年裡，除了我們決定能夠將 Paradise Point 改建為 Margaritaville 之外，我們認為資本應該在 50、6000 萬範圍內。

Can any of you have you said what your expectation is for the EBITDA trajectory of oil play over the next several years.

你們中的任何人都可以說出你們對未來幾年石油業 EBITDA 軌蹟的期望嗎？

And we haven't we as it relates to this year, and that's hard enough to forecast a re-ramp from again from being from being closed. We're looking at about $22 million of EBITDA, give or take as our outlook for this year. That would be in excess of where we were in 19. But well behind the 30, what was it?

今年我們還沒有做到這一點，而且很難預測從關閉到再次關閉的情況。我們預計今年的 EBITDA 約為 2,200 萬美元。這將超過我們 19 年的水平。但遠遠落後30，那是什麼？

35 million? We were headed for in in 2022 before the hurricane hit at the end of September.

3500萬？我們原本計劃在 2022 年 9 月底颶風襲來之前實現這一目標。

Okay. And I guess by you have an expectation of when you should treat that 35 or higher?

好的。我猜您預計什麼時候應該治療 35 或更高？

We well, they'll depend a lot on the market, depends on how other properties, price and perform in that market. And but the good news, we think it's whether it gets back there or in general resorts are our resorts are not at the 22 levels. They've come off a little bit from there. We would expect Naples to reply to probably do the same thing if it were running stabilized today, but maybe in the next two years, there's there's certainly a possibility we can get back to the same level or nearby.

我們好吧，它們將在很大程度上取決於市場，取決於該市場上其他房產的價格和表現。但好消息是，我們認為無論是回到那裡還是在一般度假村，我們的度假村都不在 22 樓。他們已經偏離了一點點。如果今天穩定運行，我們預計那不勒斯可能會做出同樣的事情，但也許在未來兩年內，我們肯定有可能回到相同或附近的水平。

Yes, Dori, when you look back to Irma, when that hit South Florida, Naples came back as a market quicker than Key West did just an indication on which is a different demand drivers and customer base in Naples versus Key West.

是的，多麗，當你回顧艾爾瑪事件時，當它襲擊南佛羅裡達州時，那不勒斯作為一個市場的恢復速度比基韋斯特更快，這只是表明那不勒斯與基韋斯特的需求驅動因素和客戶群不同。

So that's another way that a lot more annual return is because of the the base population there.

因此，從另一個角度來看，更多的年回報是因為那裡的基數人口。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jay Kornreich, Wedbush Securities.

傑‧柯恩瑞奇 (Jay Kornreich)，韋德布希證券公司。

Good morning. In fourth quarter, you generally saw a rebound in the urban markets, and I believe you commented on that occupancy gap 2018 closing to 15%. So I'm just curious if this rebound is coming more from? Is this transit customers or group customers? And how much growth you foresee in urban markets and 24 versus 2022?

早安.第四季度，您普遍看到城市市場出現反彈，我相信您評論過2018年的入住率差距接近15%。所以我只是好奇這種反彈比較來自哪裡？這是中轉客戶還是團體客戶？與 2022 年相比，您預期 24 小時城市市場的成長幅度是多少？

Yes. So actually, the rebound is coming from from of three segments. It's coming from BTC. corporations are getting back to the office and you're seeing obviously significant growth in activity around AI. which is headquartered in San Francisco. The group side is recovering as well. We're going to have a down year on a convention basis in 24 from prior year cancellations when things were maybe viewed a little more challenging from a quality of life perspective, but that's improved dramatically, I'd say, at or or better than pre pandemic levels in terms of quality of life and continuing advances in the politics there. So our group has been improving, including in-house group and leisure is coming back to the market, both from a domestic perspective and from an international inbound perspective. And I'd say the the market segment probably further behind continues to be that international inbound because a lot of it came from China in particular, given the population base in San Francisco and the attractiveness of that city from from an Asian perspective. So it's really all the segments we do expect to continue to continue in 2024 in all segments, except for the drop in convention. And we think these other segments should do well to offset that drop in convention. And hopefully, we continue to have an up year on a RevPAR basis in San Francisco. But we do think urban will lead the pack on a RevPAR basis.

是的。所以實際上，反彈來自三個部分。它來自比特幣。企業正在重返辦公室，您會看到圍繞人工智慧的活動明顯顯著成長。總部位於舊金山。集團方面也正在恢復。與前一年取消相比，我們今年將迎來24 年的下滑，當時從生活品質的角度來看，事情可能更具挑戰性，但我想說，情況已經有了顯著改善，達到或更好那裡的生活品質和政治的持續進步都達到了大流行前的水平。所以我們的團隊一直在進步，包括內部團隊和休閒正在回歸市場，無論是從國內角度還是從國際入境角度來看。我想說，落後的細分市場可能仍然是國際入境，因為考慮到舊金山的人口基數以及從亞洲角度來看該城市的吸引力，其中很大一部分來自中國。因此，除了慣例的減少之外，我們確實預計 2024 年所有細分市場都會繼續下去。我們認為這些其他細分市場應該能夠很好地抵消慣例的下降。希望舊金山的 RevPAR 能持續維持成長。但我們確實認為城市將在 RevPAR 的基礎上領先。

Our portfolio again and in 2024 Could you would you as relates to San Francisco, and I know there's a lot of talk about the convention calendar in 24 versus 23, which is down and that's primarily in the fourth quarter. Actually, the first half of 24 is up year over year. But what it is all about, it's not really captured in the numbers are all the self-contained group and which those are groups like JPMorgan that happened in January, that's self-contained group standard convention numbers. So that's up year over year. So that part actually is is I'm coming back as the other BT. group is coming back to the city.

我們的投資組合再次出現在 2024 年，您能介紹一下舊金山的情況嗎？我知道有很多關於 24 日與 23 日的會議日曆的討論，會議日曆有所下降，主要是在第四季度。事實上，24上半年比去年同期上升。但事實是，數據中並沒有真正反映出所有獨立團體的情況，這些團體是像一月份發生的摩根大通這樣的團體，這是獨立團體標準大會的數字。所以這個數字逐年上升。所以這部分實際上是我將以另一個 BT 的身份回來。一行人即將回城。

So when you look at that, you'd look at those two components, not just that Gary mentioned demand and you probably hear that from folks like host to who own those big area marquee in town.

因此，當你看到這一點時，你會看到這兩個組成部分，而不僅僅是加里提到的需求，你可能會從像主人這樣在鎮上擁有大面積帳篷的人那裡聽到這一點。

Yes, I'll hold it and thank you very much for that.

是的，我會保留它並非常感謝你。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Dany Asad, Bank of America.

丹尼·阿薩德，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning, everybody. I'm John or Ray, can you just if we're looking specifically to Boston market. You kind of called that out in your prepared remarks, but can you help us break down those 10 points of occupancy gap relative to 2019 and Boston? What is it that has yet to recover and maybe break it down for us by day of week and then what will drive the incremental, you know, occupancy points in Boston from here I'm just kind of wondering if you're seeing that flatten out or kind of how that trends been going?

嗨，大家早安。我是約翰或雷，如果我們專門尋找波士頓市場，可以嗎？您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，但是您能幫助我們縮小相對於 2019 年和波士頓的 10 個百分點的入住率差距嗎？是什麼尚未恢復，也許可以按週為我們分解，然後是什麼將推動波士頓的入住率從這裡開始增加，我只是想知道您是否看到這種情況趨於平緩趨勢如何？

So I mean I can give you some general comments. We can follow up with some detail as to this as to the specific segmentation with Boston, we don't happen to have it handy right here. But in general, I'd say it's in it's in two segments, primarily in IBT., particularly on the large corporate side, including consulting and financial, are probably down the most in that market. Those are continuing to recover.

所以我的意思是我可以給你一些一般性的評論。我們可以跟進波士頓的具體細分的一些細節，但我們這裡碰巧沒有方便的地方。但總的來說，我想說它分為兩個部分，主要是 IBT，特別是在大型企業方面，包括諮詢和金融，可能是該市場中跌幅最大的。這些正在繼續恢復。

Tom, you hear probably similar comments about that from the major brands, not only for Boston but across the country, but it's a big component in that market. And that's that's what's DOWN along with some group and the convention, the major convention is actually running similar to some of its strongest years in the past where convention is down is at the Hynes Convention Center and that's because if you recall, there was this hubbub about the prior Governor wanting to shut down Heinz and sell it for other uses and that sort of a potential conversion Idea has now passed on the Hynes Convention Center is actively pursuing new business and which will help drive particularly the Back Bay to even higher levels, particularly in our portfolio with a Westin, which is attached the convention center as well as the Revere and the W., which are nearby. So and they're also planning to do needed renovations over the next few years as they rebuild the group base there. So our in-house group at Weston, as an example, is still down a little bit from where we were in 19. And we have that to gain back. And I think that's indicative based upon Mariano's position in the market. It's indicative of other property opportunities as well. So it's really those two segments. I think Leisure's been pretty strong. There's probably still some inbound international to go, but it's not a large component.

湯姆，你可能會從主要品牌那裡聽到類似的評論，不僅是在波士頓，而且是在全國範圍內，但它是該市場的重要組成部分。這就是一些團體和大會的下降情況，主要大會的運作情況實際上與過去一些最強勁的年份類似，其中大會在海因斯會議中心下降，那是因為如果你還記得的話，那裡有這種喧囂關於前州長希望關閉亨氏並將其出售用於其他用途，並且這種潛在的轉換想法現已傳遞，海因斯會議中心正在積極尋求新業務，這將有助於推動後灣區達到更高的水平，特別是在我們的產品組合中，威斯汀酒店毗鄰會議中心，以及附近的里維爾酒店和 W. 酒店。因此，他們也計劃在未來幾年內進行必要的翻修，在那裡重建集團基地。以我們 Weston 的內部團隊為例，與 19 年時相比，仍略有下降。我們有能力贏回這一點。我認為這基於馬裡亞諾在市場上的地位。這也顯示了其他房地產機會。所以這實際上是這兩個部分。我認為休閒活動相當強。可能還有一些入境國際航班需要前往，但這並不是一個很大的組成部分。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Gregory Miller, Truist Securities.

格雷戈里·米勒，Truist 證券公司。

I'm hoping you can provide some context on the NAV revisions, and that is after February relative to November, given estimated value declines from the severe market?

我希望您能提供一些有關資產淨值修正的背景信息，即 2 月份之後相對於 11 月份的情況，考慮到嚴重市場造成的估計價值下降？

Yes. So Greg, we look at the gross enterprise value change on it went down about $200 million from our last update and about half of that $100 million are from property sales. The sale of WD Services go in retail, some retail space in Chicago and another half, a million dollars that's reflective of the asset by asset value estimates that we do internally here based upon what we're seeing in the market, sometimes very close to the transactions. I think another part in each market to understand where that is taking to consideration the debt markets and so forth. So that's how we adjusted the CAD200 million decline. So again, half of it was from asset sales, half of it was the change in value. And then the balance of it is just really a reflection of the debt paydowns and then the buying the preferred at a big discount change in that for the NAV. So overall, the NAV change moved to dollar, but a big portion of that was really just the timing there and some of the adjustments, there were the values.

是的。格雷格（Greg），我們看到企業總價值的變化比我們上次更新時下降了約 2 億美元，而這 1 億美元中約有一半來自房地產銷售。WD 服務的出售涉及零售業，包括芝加哥的一些零售空間，另外一半，一百萬美元，這反映了我們根據我們在市場上看到的情況在內部進行的資產價值估計，有時非常接近交易。我認為每個市場的另一部分是要了解在哪裡考慮債務市場等。這就是我們如何調整 2 億加元的跌幅。同樣，一半來自資產出售，一半來自價值變動。然後它的餘額實際上反映了債務償還，然後以資產淨值的大幅折扣變化購買優先股。總的來說，資產淨值的變化轉向了美元，但其中很大一部分實際上只是時間安排和一些調整，還有價值。

And Greg, I think when you when you look at where the values were down, it was primarily markets that were slower to recover where the debt markets are having a bigger impact on values because those markets lagged those markets lacked strong yield and many of the buyers are primarily all equity buyers. So I think as that as the yields as operations continue to recover and yields continue to grow, not only will the values go up because of that, but they'll go up because of sort of the that the lack of yield penalty being imposed on values by the debt side, and that will help transactions in general.

格雷格，我認為，當你觀察價值下跌的地方時，主要是市場恢復速度較慢，而債務市場對價值的影響更大，因為這些市場落後於那些缺乏強勁收益率的市場，而且許多債券市場的復甦速度較慢。買家主要都是股權買家。因此，我認為，隨著營運繼續恢復，收益率繼續增長，價值不僅會因此而上升，而且會因為缺乏收益率懲罰而上升。債務方的價值，這將有助於整體交易。

Okay. Appreciate it both.

好的。兩者都很欣賞。

Floris Van Dijkum of Compass Point.

Compass Point 的 Floris Van Dijkum。

Hey, thanks. Thanks for taking my question, guys. You guys still have this big giant gap in profitability, particularly in your urban markets. I calculate something like 96 million shortfall relative to 2019 levels.

嘿，謝謝。謝謝你們提出我的問題，夥伴們。你們的獲利能力仍然存在巨大差距，特別是在城市市場。我計算出，相對 2019 年的水平，缺口約 9,600 萬。

I guess maybe Ray, I mean, I know you've invested in your portfolio, you're going to get some return on that capital. But is there a risk this cycle that your urban markets never fully get back to 2019?

我想也許雷，我的意思是，我知道你已經投資了你的投資組合，你將從該資本中獲得一些回報。但這個週期是否存在城市市場永遠無法完全回到 2019 年的風險？

Or how do you see that playing out over the next two to three years?

或者您如何看待未來兩到三年的發展？

Well, it was a couple of factors. One is, as we indicated before, we'll continue to track how we monitor how the changes in business change and business group that both are going in a good direction. So that both sides and that's the growth of RevPAR this year. So that's a positive there. And so that's one of the two is the international inbound component isn't impact. You look at that side, we still have 10 million less international inbound travelers than what we had pre-COVID and international inbound travelers tend to go to a lot of the coastal markets, the gateway markets, which are the markets we own. And so unfortunately, we did a lot of markets that we are the urban markets we're in. We're in those markets that did go down the most from the pandemic, but it does add most of the growth, the biggest growth level is coming back now. So it'll go in different periods. Markets like Boston have rebounded quicker variety just because the nature of the industries in Boston, there have been benefiting from the trends on your European travel there, more than the West Coast urban markets are going to penalize because they rely more in Europe as an example. But also you have a lot of the industries in Boston are more coming back to the office is more travel industries. They're doing there and we don't have the tech side a little bit slower in the West Coast So yes, overall, we are confident over the next several years and some markets will get back to pre COVID-19 levels sooner than others like Boston and San Diego. Some it will take longer. But overall, we've seen how travel does follow GDP over the long term. And we're just right now in a period now for the pandemic, there's a lot of distortions in the market. But as these normalize with all these demand factors, we think it does get out does get better, but it would be like a fairly large number one, but the one.

嗯，這是有幾個因素的。一是，正如我們之前指出的，我們將繼續追蹤我們如何監控業務變化和業務組的變化，兩者都在朝著好的方向發展。雙方都認為，這就是今年 RevPAR 的成長。所以這是正面的一面。因此，其中之一是國際入境部分不會受到影響。從另一方面來看，我們的國際入境旅客數量仍比新冠疫情爆發前少了 1000 萬，而且國際入境旅客往往會前往許多沿海市場、門戶市場，這些市場都是我們擁有的市場。不幸的是，我們做的市場很多都是我們所在的城市市場。我們所處的市場確實因疫情而下降最嚴重，但它確實增加了大部分成長，最大的成長水平現在正在回歸。所以它會在不同的時期進行。像波士頓這樣的市場反彈速度更快，因為波士頓的行業性質，從歐洲旅行的趨勢中受益，比西海岸城市市場受到的懲罰更大，因為他們更依賴歐洲為例。但波士頓的許多行業更多地回到辦公室，更多的是旅遊業。他們在那裡做，我們在西海岸的技術方面沒有慢一點所以是的，總體而言，我們對未來幾年充滿信心，一些市場將比其他市場更快恢復到 COVID-19 之前的水平比如波士頓和聖地亞哥。有些需要更長的時間。但總體而言，我們已經看到了從長期來看，旅遊業是如何跟隨 GDP 變化的。我們現在正處於大流行時期，市場存在著許多扭曲。但隨著所有這些需求因素的正常化，我們認為它確實會變得更好，但它會像一個相當大的第一，但一個。

The one thing I'd add is, you know, are there are there markets like San Francisco and Portland? Do we think the bottom lines are going to get back to where we were in 19 in the next two or three years, probably not. I think that would be that would be very unrealistic. Will we will we dramatically narrow that $96 million EBITDA difference and over the next two to three years?

我要補充的一件事是，你知道，有像舊金山和波特蘭這樣的市場嗎？我們是否認為未來兩三年內獲利會回到 19 年時的水平，可能不會。我認為那將是非常不現實的。我們會在未來兩到三年內大幅縮減 9,600 萬美元的 EBITDA 差異嗎？

Yes, we think we will from a combination of those kinds of markets recovering with significant operating leverage in them obviously. And the stronger markets like Boston and San Diego, as an example, are exceeding 19 levels with strong operating leverage as well. So and all of them with occupancy opportunities obviously to regain they started.

是的，我們認為我們將從這些市場的組合中復甦，顯然這些市場具有顯著的營運槓桿。以波士頓和聖地牙哥等實力較強的市場為例，其營運槓桿也超過了 19 個水準。因此，所有擁有入住機會的人顯然都重新開始了。

Actually, that leads me to maybe the connected question here. In terms of occupancy upside, I think you mentioned on your prepared remarks that you have about it 15% gap in your urban markets. I think it's 13% in your overall portfolio where you you clearly expressed some some have some positive sentiment towards Boston and San Diego in particular, I do think that have to get back to your 19 levels. You don't necessarily need to get all the occupancy back because of the ADR growth. But you think you're going to get back in terms of occupancy in Boston and markets like like San Diego as well back to the 2019 levels over there?

實際上，這可能讓我想到了這裡的相關問題。就入住率上升而言，我想您在準備好的演講中提到，城市市場的入住率差距約為 15%。我認為它佔您整體投資組合的 13％，您明確表達了一些人對波士頓和聖地亞哥特別是一些積極的情緒，我確實認為必須回到您的 19 水平。由於平均房價成長，您不一定需要恢復所有入住率。但您認為波士頓和聖地牙哥等市場的入住率會恢復到 2019 年的水平嗎？

Year two, I think I don't know if we'll get there in the next year or two, but I think we'll narrow that difference pretty substantially in those kinds of markets. And in fact, we may not want to get there, and we may want to press more on the rate button in those markets and change mix within the house, we're running 88% in a market like Boston, it's doable, but we'd rather run 85, frankly. And sometimes you have to take the occupancy, you can't get it in rate. But I.

第二年，我想我不知道我們是否會在未來一兩年內實現這一目標，但我認為我們將在這些市場中大幅縮小這種差異。事實上，我們可能不想到達那裡，我們可能想在這些市場上按更多的利率按鈕並改變內部的組合，我們在像波士頓這樣的市場上運行 88％，這是可行的，但我們坦白說，我寧願跑85。有時你必須接受入住，但你無法以價格獲得它。但是我。

Yes, I think we'll narrow them dramatically, but do we do we think we're going to get there? I mean, tell me what the economic world is going to be also over the next two or three years because I think if we get past the sale this year, I think we're in really good condition to drive both occupancy and rate.

是的，我認為我們會大幅縮小範圍，但我們認為我們能實現這一目標嗎？我的意思是，請告訴我未來兩三年的經濟世界將會怎樣，因為我認為如果我們今年完成了銷售，我認為我們的狀況非常好，可以同時提高入住率和房價。

Thanks, John. That's it for me.

謝謝，約翰。對我來說就是這樣。

Chris Darling, Green Street.

克里斯達林，格林街。

Chris, it better be a good one year that clean up here as well. Things are hopefully so.

克里斯，今年最好也把這裡清理乾淨。事情希望如此。

And what I want and I want to go back to the discussion around your NAV estimate. I'm just wondering if lower values in some of these urban markets are they does that make you more likely to hold some of these assets rather than to sell at depressed values, especially as you're expecting some fundamental upside in the near term? So just wondering how you're thinking about that.

我想要什麼，我想回到圍繞您的資產淨值估算的討論。我只是想知道，某些城市市場的較低價值是否會讓您更有可能持有其中一些資產，而不是以較低的價格出售，特別是當您預計短期內會出現一些基本面上漲時？所以只是想知道你怎麼想的。

I think I think selling in those markets would would likely bring our growth rate down a little bit on a marginal basis. But the investment of the proceeds from them into the rest of our portfolio through buying back our stock. As long as that ring remains exceedingly attractive. I think it does still make sense from, as you know, I mean, the public markets tend to not look three or four years out as it relates to lodging rates or frankly, most companies eValues not is not the popular form of investing, it's really growth. And while that would impact our growth rate a little bit, I don't I don't think the margin is as attractive to hold as it is to sell and buy our stock back. I mean, where we've been selling has generally been slower to recover markets and the lower quality assets in those markets. So we've been improving the overall quality of the portfolio. At the same time, we've been buying the remaining part of the portfolio back at a big discount. So I don't think it would change our view of where we've been focused.

我認為在這些市場上銷售可能會使我們的成長率小幅下降。但透過回購我們的股票，將他們的收益投資到我們投資組合的其餘部分。只要那枚戒指仍然極具吸引力。我認為這仍然是有道理的，正如你所知，我的意思是，公開市場往往不會考慮三四年後的情況，因為它與住宿費率有關，或者坦率地說，大多數公司eValues 不是流行的投資形式，而是真正的成長。雖然這會對我們的成長率產生一點影響，但我不認為持有的利潤率不如出售和回購我們的股票那麼有吸引力。我的意思是，我們一直在出售的市場通常恢復速度較慢，而且這些市場中的資產品質較低。因此，我們一直在提高產品組合的整體品質。同時，我們一直在以大幅折扣回購投資組合的剩餘部分。所以我認為這不會改變我們對我們一直關注的焦點的看法。

And that's helpful to hear. And then just one more for me on skinnier. I'm just hoping you can elaborate on what exactly is being done with the initial $20 million investment. And then as you densify that property over time with these alternative lodging units, I'm just curious to understand if there's upside in terms of operational efficiencies that you can realize?

聽到這很有幫助。然後再給我一個更瘦的。我只是希望您能詳細說明最初的 2000 萬美元投資到底做了什麼。然後，隨著時間的推移，當您透過這些替代住宿單位不斷增加該物業的密度時，我只是想知道您可以實現的營運效率方面是否有優勢？

Sure. So we have we have Skandia sits on 200 acres. We had a golf course that took up about 100 acres and we closed it from several years ago, and we rebuilt on a nine hole part three in a sustainable way and an 18 hole putting cores our adjacent to it and then we freed up, I think about 70 acres of it along with the additional land we had for future development of this. This 20 million investment went for. I'm a CAD2.5 million Pavilion that we build adjacent to the 18 hole, putting course for events and some for weddings, we added three more tree houses to the six we already had. So we now have nine and we're experimenting with some additional new alternative products where we're completing five luxury lapping units on a portion of the property. We're adding a three bedroom villa and we're adding to two-bedroom cabins. And those will have longer length of stay, perhaps weekly, in some cases, perhaps monthly, whereas the three houses are much more nightly like the rest of the Lodge. And then in order at this point to really do it right, we've we brought through the property or at least through a portion of the property, which would we've brought through utilities road and infrastructure, so gas, electricity, water, sewer and roads for access and two, about a third of the of the excess acres. So we can build a significantly greater number of alternative lodging units. We're looking at things like have a luxury RV park. We're looking at Farmhouse inn with vineyards and food fields. I mean, there's a bunch of different things we're looking at right now. We're just experimenting with what does the customer have an interest in in this market and what are they willing? And what are they willing to pay for that? And so it is similar to what we did with the original couple of three houses that we built.

當然。 Skandia 佔地 200 英畝。我們有一個佔地約100 英畝的高爾夫球場，我們從幾年前就關閉了它，我們以可持續的方式重建了第三部分的9 洞高爾夫球場，並在其附近建造了一個18 洞的核心區，然後我們釋放了，我考慮一下 70 英畝的土地以及我們用於未來開發的額外土地。這2000萬的投資就這樣過去了。我是一個價值 250 萬加元的展館，我們在 18 號洞附近建造，為活動和婚禮鋪設場地，在已有的六座樹屋的基礎上，我們又增加了三座樹屋。所以我們現在有九個，我們正在嘗試一些額外的新替代產品，我們正在該物業的一部分上完成五個豪華研磨單元。我們正在增加一棟三臥室別墅，我們正在增加兩臥室小屋。這些房屋的停留時間較長，可能每週一次，在某些情況下，可能每月一次，而這三棟房屋與旅館的其他部分一樣，每晚的住宿時間要長得多。然後，為了在這一點上真正正確，我們已經通過該財產或至少通過該財產的一部分，我們將通過公用事業道路和基礎設施，例如天然氣、電力、水、下水道和道路兩處，約佔多餘面積的三分之一。因此，我們可以建造更多數量的替代住宿單位。我們正在考慮建立一個豪華房車公園之類的事情。我們正在尋找有葡萄園和菜田的農舍旅館。我的意思是，我們現在正在考慮很多不同的事情。我們只是在試驗客戶對這個市場有什麼興趣，他們願意什麼？他們願意為此付出什麼代價？這與我們最初建造的三棟房子的做法類似。

Will there are there operating efficiencies?

會有營運效率嗎？

Yes, there is significant. I mean, we're not adding anything other than hourlies at this point in time as we add these additional units. If we add a different concept like a farm house in or something we may or may not use the same team at the property, but ultimately a lot of the expansion of the units and these units run two times or more of what the average large rate is. So they're significantly more profitable on a per key basis on a per bedroom basis.

是的，有重要意義。我的意思是，在添加這些額外單位時，我們目前不會添加除小時以外的任何內容。如果我們添加不同的概念，例如農舍或其他東西，我們可能會或可能不會在該物業中使用相同的團隊，但最終會大量擴展單元，並且這些單元的運行速度是平均大速率的兩倍或更多是。因此，以每間鑰匙、每間臥室計算，他們的利潤要高得多。

As it relates to the cabins and the Villa. So there's a lot of operating leverage for these additional units. But right now, it's not a huge number of units. It's really sort of attached sort of a test case.

因為它涉及小屋和別墅。因此，這些額外的單位有很大的營運槓桿。但目前，數量還不是很多。這實際上是一種附加的測試案例。

And Chris, just to give you some sense of the development of that at Cananea and we love it because all the additional amenities we can add. So it's some it's more than just a lodge is a lot of things to do there. When we acquired that hotel that had about $4.4 million of EBITDA. It ended 23 and almost $13 million of EBITDA and the occupancies are still below where we were pre-pandemic. So just to show you that the by adding all these additional services do we think it's maxed out. No, there's plenty of growth opportunities there. And with additional units we can have between the clamping and other alternative for this, we think there's a lot more growth in there. So it's been a great investment for us and we look forward to that.

克里斯，只是為了讓您了解卡納尼亞的發展情況，我們喜歡它，因為我們可以添加所有額外的便利設施。所以它不僅僅是一個旅館，那裡還有很多事情可以做。當我們收購那家 EBITDA 約 440 萬美元的飯店。截至 23 日，EBITDA 接近 1300 萬美元，入住率仍低於疫情前的水平。因此，只是為了向您表明，透過添加所有這些附加服務，我們認為它已經達到極限。不，那裡有很多增長機會。透過在夾緊和其他替代方案之間添加額外的單元，我們認為其中會有更多的成長。所以這對我們來說是一筆巨大的投資，我們對此充滿期待。

Well, thanks. Sounds like a lot of interesting things over time there. So I appreciate it.

非常感謝。隨著時間的推移，聽起來好像有很多有趣的事情。所以我很感激。

Yes. Thank you, Chris.

是的。謝謝你，克里斯。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Bortz for closing comments.

謝謝。現在，我想將發言權交還給博茨先生以作結束發言。

Thanks, everybody, for participating, and we'll see you many of you down in Florida. We hope you can join us for our Naples tour. And otherwise, we'll will be in touch with you in April again to report first quarter results. Thank you very much.

感謝大家的參與，我們將在佛羅裡達州見到你們。我們希望您能加入我們的那不勒斯之旅。否則，我們將在四月再次與您聯繫以報告第一季的業績。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時，您可以斷開線路或登出網路廣播，享受剩下的一天。