Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q1 2025 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Pembina Pipeline Corporation 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

This call is being recorded on Friday, May 9, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Tucunel, VP, Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

本次通話於 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五錄製。現在，我想將會議交給資本市場副總裁 Dan Tucunel。請繼續。

Thank you, Joelle. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the first quarter of 2025. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Cameron Goldade, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; along with other members of Pembina's officer team.

謝謝你，喬爾。大家早安。歡迎參加 Pembina 的電話會議和網路廣播，回顧 2025 年第一季的亮點。參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Scott Burrows；以及高級副總裁兼財務長 Cameron Goldade；以及 Pembina 官員團隊的其他成員。

I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

我想提醒您，今天發表的一些評論可能具有前瞻性，並且基於 Pembina 當前的預期、估計、判斷和預測。我們今天可能表達或暗示的前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。

Further, some of the emission provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's management's discussion and analysis dated May 8, 2025, for the period ended March 31, 2025, as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday, which are all available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR+ and EDGAR.

此外，所提供的部分排放量是指非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標。要了解有關這些前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的更多信息，請參閱公司管理層於 2025 年 5 月 8 日發布的關於截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期間的討論和分析，以及 Pembina 昨天發布的新聞稿，這些新聞稿均可在 pembina.com 以及 SEDAR+ 和 EDGAR 上在線查閱。

I will now turn things over to Scott.

現在我將把事情交給史考特。

Thanks, Dan. Yesterday, we reported our first quarter results, which were highlighted by quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion. This is a very strong start to the year and builds on the momentum from a record year in 2024, providing confidence in our full year outlook. As Cameron will discuss in more detail, we are currently trending towards the midpoint of our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion.

謝謝，丹。昨天，我們報告了第一季業績，其中季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 11.67 億美元。這是今年非常強勁的開端，並延續了 2024 年創紀錄的勢頭，為我們的全年前景增添了信心。正如卡梅倫將更詳細地討論的那樣，我們目前正趨向於 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 指導範圍的中點，即 42 億美元至 45 億美元。

Given the growth across Pembina's low-risk fee-based business and confidence in the outlook for 2025 and beyond, we were pleased to yesterday announce a $0.02 per share or 3% increase in the quarterly common share dividend, beginning with the dividend to be paid in June. We recognize the importance of our sustainable, reliable and growing dividend to our shareholders, and we are proud of our long track record in this regard.

鑑於 Pembina 低風險收費業務的成長以及對 2025 年及以後前景的信心，我們很高興地宣布，從 6 月支付的股息開始，季度普通股股息將增加每股 0.02 美元或 3%。我們認識到可持續、可靠和不斷增長的股息對股東的重要性，我們為我們在這方面的長期業績感到自豪。

On the commercial front, Pembina has entered into commercial agreements with the leading Montney producer covering Pembina's full value chain, including transportation, fractionation and marketing services. The agreements include significant new and extended long-term take-or-pay volume commitments on Pembina's Peace Pipeline, Pouce [Coupa] systems and Northeast BC Pipeline.

在商業方面，Pembina 已與領先的 Montney 生產商達成商業協議，涵蓋 Pembina 的整個價值鏈，包括運輸、分餾和行銷服務。這些協議包括對 Pembina 的 Peace Pipeline、Pouce [Coupa] 系統和 Northeast BC Pipeline 做出的重大新的和延長的長期照付不議數量承諾。

The new and extended fractionation agreements are expected to support higher utilization of Pembina's Redwater complex including RFS IV, currently under construction and the proposed RFS III de-ethanizer is sanctioned.

預計新的和延長的分餾協議將支持 Pembina 的 Redwater 綜合設施的更高利用率，包括目前正在建設的 RFS IV 和已獲批准的擬建 RFS III 脫乙烷塔。

Additionally, the process to remarket Pembina's capacity on the Cedar LNG Project to third parties continues to progress well. We have now shortlisted the preferred counterparties and entered definitive agreement negotiations.

此外，Pembina 將 Cedar LNG 專案產能重新銷售給第三方的進程繼續進展順利。我們目前已選定優先交易對手並進入最終協議談判階段。

Pembina continues to advance several in-flight construction projects to capitalize on growing WCSB volumes, diversify end-market exposure and serve our customers better. Pembina has built a strong competitive advantage by effectively delivering projects safely, on time and on budget. Further, we believe that recent and current expansions have been and continue to be executed with superior capital efficiency compared to others in the industry.

Pembina 繼續推動多個在建項目，以利用不斷增長的 WCSB 數量、實現終端市場多元化並更好地服務我們的客戶。Pembina 透過安全、按時、按預算有效地交付項目，建立了強大的競爭優勢。此外，我們相信，與業內其他公司相比，近期和當前的擴張已經並將繼續以更高的資本效率進行。

In addition, Pembina is progressing development of more than $4 billion portfolio of potential projects that includes conventional pipeline expansions such as the Taylor-to-Gordondale project, an expansion of the Peace Pipeline system to add capacity to the market delivery pipelines from Fox Creek-to-Namao and further expansions to support volume growth in Northeast BC, including new pipelines and terminal upgrades.

此外，Pembina 正在推進價值超過 40 億美元的潛在項目組合的開發，其中包括傳統管道擴建，例如 Taylor-to-Gordondale 項目、Peace Pipeline 系統擴建以增加 Fox Creek-to-Namao 市場輸送管道的容量，以及進一步擴建以支持不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的終端產量增長，包括新管道和升級。

While reiterating their commitment to their Path2Zero project, Dow recently announced the delay in construction of the project to manage capital allocation in light of current market conditions and economic uncertainty.

在重申對 Path2Zero 項目的承諾的同時，陶氏最近宣布推遲該項目的建設，以根據當前的市場狀況和經濟不確定性管理資本配置。

At this time, other than changing the in-service date of Dow's project, the announcement delay has no impact on Pembina's ethane supply agreement and the development of potential infrastructure to meet its commitments.

目前，除了改變陶氏計畫的投產日期外，公告延遲對 Pembina 的乙烷供應協議以及為履行其承諾而開發的潛在基礎設施沒有影響。

To date, Pembina has not spent material capital to support the ethane supply agreement, and will continue to progress these projects but may now have more time available to execute them. Pembina is evaluating the various options available to meet its ethane supply commitment under the agreement with Dow, including the addition of a de-ethanization tower at RFS III within the Redwater Complex.

迄今為止，Pembina 尚未投入大量資金來支持乙烷供應協議，並將繼續推進這些項目，但現在可能有更多的時間來執行它們。Pembina 正在評估各種可用方案，以履行其與陶氏達成的協議下的乙烷供應承諾，包括在 Redwater 綜合設施內的 RFS III 增加一座脫乙烷塔。

Regarding Alliance Pipeline and ongoing Canadian energy regulator review process, Alliance is working collaboratively with its stakeholders and remains focused on delivering the highest standards of service that customers have come to expect.

關於 Alliance Pipeline 和正在進行的加拿大能源監管機構審查流程，Alliance 正在與其利益相關者合作，並繼續致力於提供客戶期望的最高標準服務。

Based on discussions to date, Pembina expects lower future tolls on the Canadian portion of Alliance, reflecting a negotiated solution that continues to benefit both Pembina and the Alliance shippers through an equitable sharing of value and risk.

根據迄今為止的討論，Pembina 預計未來聯盟加拿大部分的通行費將會降低，這反映出透過公平分擔價值和風險，繼續使 Pembina 和聯盟托運人受益的協商解決方案。

We expect Pembina will continue to earn appropriate risk-adjusted returns, while shippers will continue to benefit from Alliance's firm capacity, high reliability and cost-effective access to premium U.S. natural gas markets.

我們預計 Pembina 將繼續獲得適當的風險調整回報，而托運人將繼續受益於 Alliance 的穩固運力、高可靠性以及以經濟的方式進入優質美國天然氣市場。

I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights for the first quarter.

現在我將把話題交給 Cam，讓他更詳細地討論第一季的財務亮點。

Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembina reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion. This represents a 12% increase over the same period in the prior year. In pipelines, factors impacting the quarter primarily included a higher contribution from Alliance due to increased ownership following the Alliance/Aux Sable acquisition, favorable U.S. foreign exchange rate, higher tolls mainly related to contractual inflation adjustments, higher contracted volumes on the Nipisi Pipeline and the Peace Pipeline system, higher contribution from Alliance due to higher demand on seasonal contracts and lower firm tolls on the Cochin Pipeline due to the recontracting that occurred in July of 2024.

謝謝，斯科特。正如斯科特所指出的，Pembina 報告第一季調整後的 EBITDA 為 11.67 億美元。這比去年同期增長了 12%。在管道方面，影響本季度的因素主要包括 Alliance 因收購 Alliance/Aux Sable 後所有權增加而貢獻增加、美國外匯匯率有利、通行費增加（主要與合約通膨調整有關）、尼皮西管道和和平管道系統的合約輸送量增加、季節性合約需求增加而導致 Alliance 貢獻增加，以及科欽通行費因 2024 年管道費。

In facilities, factors impacting the quarter included the inclusion of Aux Sable following the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition and higher contribution from PGI primarily related to the Whitecap and Veren transactions largely offset by lower interruptible volumes at Dawson due to third-party sales gas restrictions.

在設施方面，影響本季的因素包括 Alliance Aux Sable 收購後 Aux Sable 的納入，以及 PGI 的貢獻增加（主要與 Whitecap 和 Veren 交易有關），但這在很大程度上被 Dawson 因第三方銷售天然氣限製而導致的可中斷量減少所抵消。

In marketing and new ventures, first quarter results reflected the net impact of higher net revenue from contracts with customers due to increased ownership interest in Aux Sable, higher WCSB NGL margins and volumes, lower realized gains on commodity-related derivatives, lower Aux Sable NGL margins and no similar gain to that recognized in the first quarter of 2024 from a change in the provision related to Pembina's financial assurances for Cedar LNG.

在行銷和新業務方面，第一季業績反映了由於 Aux Sable 的所有權權益增加、WCSB NGL 利潤率和產量增加、商品相關衍生品的已實現收益減少、Aux Sable NGL 利潤率降低以及由於 Pembina 對 Cedar LNG 的財務擔保相關準備金變更而未實現與 2024 年第一季度類似的收益。

Finally, in the Corporate segment, first quarter results were lower than the prior period due to higher incentive costs driven by the change in Pembina share price and relative performance to peers in the period compared to the first quarter of 2024.

最後，在企業部門，第一季業績低於上一季度，原因是 Pembina 股價變動以及與 2024 年第一季相比同期相對於同業的相對錶現導致激勵成本增加。

Earnings in the first quarter were $502 million. This represents a 15% increase over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the increase in earnings in the first quarter was primarily due to the net impact of higher depreciation and amortization expense largely due to the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition, unrealized losses recognized by PGI on interest rate derivative financial instruments compared to gains in the first quarter of 2024, higher unrealized gains on commodity-based derivative financial instruments recognized by PGI, lower unrealized losses on renewable power purchase agreements and crude oil-based derivatives unrealized gains on NGL-based derivatives, unrealized losses on interest rate derivative financial instruments recognized by Cedar LNG, higher income tax expense, higher net finance costs and lower interest income.

第一季獲利為5.02億美元。這比去年同期增長了 15%。除了影響調整後 EBITDA 的因素外，第一季收益的成長主要歸因於較高的折舊和攤銷費用的淨影響（這主要歸因於對 Alliance Aux Sable 的收購）、PGI 確認的利率衍生金融工具未實現損失與 2024 年第一季的收益相比有所增加、PGI 確認的基於金融工具未實現損失與 2024 年第一季的收益相比有所增加、PGI 確認的基於金融工具未實現收益的衍生性商品的未實現收益減少、Cedar LNG 確認的利率衍生金融工具未實現損失增加、所得稅費用增加、淨財務成本增加以及利息收入減少。

Total volumes in the Pipelines and Facilities divisions were 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter. This represents an increase of 9% over the same period in the prior year, reflecting the net impact of the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition, higher contracted volumes on the Nipisi pipeline and the Peace Pipeline system, higher volumes at PGI related to the Whitecap and Veren transactions and lower interruptible volumes at Dawson due to third-party restrictions.

第一季管道和設施部門的總產量為每天 370 萬桶油當量。這比去年同期增長了 9%，反映了 Alliance Aux Sable 收購的淨影響、尼皮西管道和和平管道系統合約量的增加、與 Whitecap 和 Veren 交易相關的 PGI 產量增加以及由於第三方限制導致的道森可中斷產量減少。

Thanks to strong results in the first quarter of 2025, Pembina generated meaningful free cash flow in the quarter, which was allocated to strengthening the balance sheet.

由於 2025 年第一季的強勁業績，Pembina 在本季度產生了可觀的自由現金流，用於加強資產負債表。

Turning to the full year. As Scott mentioned, we are confident in our outlook and currently trending towards the midpoint of our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion. Notably, the guidance range reflects the following full year and quarterly or seasonal assumptions. Pembina continues to see rising utilization on its conventional pipeline systems and at PGI, that aligns with volume growth across the Western Canadian sedimentary basin.

展望全年。正如史考特所提到的，我們對我們的前景充滿信心，目前趨向於 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍的中點，即 42 億美元至 45 億美元。值得注意的是，該指導範圍反映了以下全年和季度或季節性假設。Pembina 的傳統管道系統和 PGI 的利用率持續上升，這與整個西加拿大沉積盆地的產量成長一致。

However, in 2025, Pembina's revenue volume growth within the conventional pipelines and gas processing assets is expected to be slightly lower than physical volume growth as certain customers expand into their contractual take-or-pay commitment. We expect a higher contribution from Alliance in the first and fourth quarters due to the ability to transport higher volumes during colder periods. Further, the current guidance assumes the existing Alliance tool is in effect for the full year.

然而，由於某些客戶擴大其合約照付不議承諾，預計 2025 年 Pembina 在常規管道和天然氣加工資產中的收入增長將略低於實物量增長。由於聯盟在寒冷時期能夠運輸更多貨物，我們預計第一季和第四季的貢獻將更高。此外，目前指導假設現有的聯盟工俱全年有效。

For the second quarter, our outlook assumes planned maintenance at Aux Sable and Alliance, certain PGI facilities and the Redwater complex as well as restrictions on third-party natural gas egress within the basin. We expect the third and fourth quarters will have higher integrity and geotechnical costs across the conventional pipeline assets. And we expect stronger first and fourth quarter results in the NGL marketing business due to typical seasonality.

對於第二季度，我們的展望假設對 Aux Sable 和 Alliance、某些 PGI 設施和 Redwater 綜合設施進行計劃維護，並限制盆地內的第三方天然氣出口。我們預計第三季和第四季常規管道資產的完整性和岩土成本將更高。由於典型的季節性，我們預計 NGL 行銷業務第一季和第四季的業績將會更加強勁。

Additionally, while marketing results in the first quarter exceeded Pembina's original guidance expectations, this has been offset by the outlook for the remainder of the year, which reflects lower commodity prices due to global economic uncertainty. As a result, Pembina's full year adjusted EBITDA outlook for the marketing and new ventures division of $550 million remains unchanged.

此外，雖然第一季的行銷業績超出了 Pembina 最初的預期，但這被今年剩餘時間的前景所抵消，因為全球經濟不確定性導致大宗商品價格下跌。因此，Pembina 行銷和新業務部門全年調整後 EBITDA 預期（5.5 億美元）保持不變。

Pembina does not expect any material impact to its guidance from tariffs on US energy imports. At March 31, 2025, based on the trailing 12 months, the ratio of proportionally consolidated debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.4 times, and we expect to exit 2025 at 3.4 times to 3.7 times. Our leverage remains well below the low end of our targeted range, reflective of our strong balance sheet and supporting a strong BBB credit rating.

Pembina 預計美國能源進口關稅不會對其業績指引產生任何實質影響。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，基於過去 12 個月，按比例合併的債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 3.4 倍，我們預計 2025 年該比率將達到 3.4 倍至 3.7 倍。我們的槓桿率仍遠低於目標範圍的低端，這反映了我們強勁的資產負債表並支持強勁的 BBB 信用評級。

I'll now turn things back to Scott.

現在我將話題轉回給史考特。

Thanks, Cam. In closing, I want to remind you that Pembina will hold its Annual Meeting of Shareholders today at 2:00 p.m. Mountain time, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. It will be a virtual-only meeting conducted via live audio webcast. Participants are recommended to register for the virtual webcast at least 10 minutes before the presentation start time. For further information on the annual meeting, please visit the Investors tab at www.pembina.com. Thank you for joining us this morning. Please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

謝謝，卡姆。最後，我想提醒大家，Pembina 將於今天下午 2 點召開年度股東大會。山區時間，下午 4:00。東部時間。這將是一次透過現場音訊網路直播進行的虛擬會議。建議參與者在演示開始時間前至少 10 分鐘註冊虛擬網路廣播。有關年度會議的更多信息，請訪問 www.pembina.com 上的“投資者”選項卡。感謝您今天上午加入我們。請繼續打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan

摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet

Hi, good morning. Mr. Jeremy. Thanks for the color today. I just want to kind of start off with maybe a bit more color on your producer customer conversations at this point and how you see, I guess, drilling activity shaping up and should WTI be going below 60, staying there for some period of time, how in corresponding moves in county prices, how you think that impacts Montney production and your outlook here, granted Pembina has a material contractual protections, but just wondering any thoughts you could share there?

嗨，早安。傑里米先生。謝謝今天的顏色。我只是想先稍微詳細地介紹一下您目前與生產商客戶的對話，以及您如何看待鑽探活動的形成，WTI 價格是否會跌破 60 並在那裡停留一段時間，縣價格會如何相應變動，您認為這會對 Montney 的生產和您的前景產生什麼影響，鑑於 Pembina 擁有實質性的合同保護，我只是想知道您能分享什麼想法嗎？

Yeah, Jeremy, it's Scott. I'll start off and make some comments, and Jaret might chime in as well. But I would say, to date, we haven't seen any material changes to drilling plans. I would say we have seen, in the last couple of days, a couple of producers start discussing about moving completions into Q3 and Q4. So I would say we are starting to see some timing of completions but overall reductions of CapEx to date, we really haven't seen that.

是的，傑瑞米，我是史考特。我將首先發表一些評論，Jaret 也可能會加入發言。但我想說，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到鑽探計畫有任何重大變化。我想說的是，在過去的幾天裡，我們看到一些生產商開始討論將完工時間轉移到第三季和第四季。所以我想說，我們開始看到一些完成的時間，但迄今為止資本支出的整體減少，我們真的還沒有看到。

Got it. And then maybe shifting over to Alliance, if I could, and recognize that you're in a place where you can only say so much at this juncture. But is it fair to kind of characterize, I guess, the range of outcomes at this point is relatively minor within the grand scheme of Pembina as far as what unfolds in the Canadian process here? And do you see, I guess, on the US side, similar things materializing? Or any other color would be helpful. Thanks

知道了。然後，如果可以的話，也許我會轉向聯盟，並認識到在這個節骨眼上你只能說這麼多。但就加拿大在此進程中展開的情況而言，我猜可以這樣公平地描述目前的結果範圍在彭比納的宏偉計劃中相對較小嗎？我想，您是否認為美國方面也會出現類似的事情？或任何其他顏色都會有幫助。謝謝

Morning Jeremy, Jaret here. And yes, I appreciate you mentioning that we are obviously limited in what we can say. But what I can reassure you, Jeremy, is that our customers continue to reiterate, they enjoy the high reliability, availability of the Alliance assets.

早安，傑瑞米，我是賈瑞特。是的，我很感謝您提到我們能說的話顯然是有限的。但是傑里米，我可以向你保證的是，我們的客戶不斷重申，他們享受聯盟資產的高可靠性和可用性。

They enjoy the high-value end market, delivering into the Chicago area. And they really value the risk-sharing aspect. Obviously, Pembina takes a material amount of operating cost risk. We believe we're a good, safe, reliable operator. And they do appreciate that with respect to that asset. On the Canadian side, that's unlike any other of the major gas transmission pipelines in Canada.

他們享有高價值的終端市場，並將產品銷往芝加哥地區。他們確實重視風險分擔方面。顯然，Pembina 承擔了相當大的營運成本風險。我們相信我們是一家優秀、安全、可靠的營運商。他們確實很欣賞這項資產。從加拿大方面來看，這與加拿大其他任何一條主要天然氣輸送管都不一樣。

Additionally, we heard from our customers that they do not want us as part of the negotiated settlement to move to a cost of service model like a true traditional cost of service model. So with all that said, we continue to work with them expeditiously to get to a negotiated settlement that we can get into the Canadian energy regulator as quickly as possible that ultimately will provide Pembina with that risk-based return. And that's -- unfortunately, that's all we can really say right now due to the active aspect of those negotiations.

此外，我們從客戶那裡聽說，他們不希望我們作為協商解決方案的一部分轉向像真正的傳統服務成本模式那樣的服務成本模式。因此，儘管如此，我們仍將繼續與他們迅速合作，透過談判達成解決方案，以便我們能夠盡快進入加拿大能源監管機構，最終為 Pembina 提供基於風險的回報。不幸的是，由於談判仍處於活躍階段，我們現在只能說這些。

Got it. And as far as the US side, nothing to think about there at this point?

知道了。就美國方面而言，目前還沒有什麼可考慮的嗎？

You bet. And then on the US side, Jeremy. So I believe it's December 1 of this year, we'll be submitting -- it's roughly -- it's every five years. We have to submit our information to the FERC, and that's coming up, I believe, December 1, 2025.

當然。接下來是美國方面的代表，傑瑞米。所以我相信我們會在今年 12 月 1 日提交——大致是每五年一次。我們必須向聯邦能源管理委員會提交我們的信息，我相信這一日期是 2025 年 12 月 1 日。

That's helpful. And last one, if I could, just real quick. Pembina has done a great job getting the balance sheet in a very strong position. And just wondering if there's the opportunity to go from defense to offense if different opportunities shake loose as far as potential smaller bolt-ons or what have you?

這很有幫助。最後一個，如果可以的話，我很快說一下。Pembina 做得非常出色，資產負債表處於非常強勁的地位。我只是想知道，如果在潛在的小型附加裝置或其他方面出現不同的機會，是否有機會從防守轉為進攻？

Yeah, Jeremy. I would say that -- a couple of things. One is that, you've certainly seen us do that over the course of time on a targeted basis. Obviously, we very, I think, successfully leveraged the PGI relationship to add some really exciting opportunities there over the past year or so. i would say that in terms of capital allocation, obviously, we're -- it's a pretty dynamic environment right now, and we're obviously monitoring things kind of in real time.

是的，傑瑞米。我想說幾件事。一是，您肯定已經看到我們隨著時間的推移有針對性地這樣做。顯然，我認為，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們非常成功地利用了 PGI 關係在那裡增加了一些真正令人興奮的機會。我想說，就資本配置而言，顯然，我們現在的環境非常活躍，而且我們顯然正在即時監控事態發展。

But at the same time, we always stand ready to make our business better as opportunities present. I would say that the prospect for big game hunting is not something we're focused on. But certainly, the smaller value-add opportunities if they come about, we're certainly going to be in a position to act on.

但同時，我們也隨時準備好抓住機遇，讓我們的業務變得更好。我想說的是，大型狩獵的前景並不是我們所關注的。但可以肯定的是，如果出現較小的增值機會，我們肯定會採取行動。

Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

知道了。這很有幫助。我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Spiro Dounis from Citi.

花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

Thanks operator. Morning team. I wanted to start with the de-ethanizer tower and the Dow contract. It sounds like your plan right now is still to develop it at some point, maybe even without Dow announcing the facility timeline once again. I just want to confirm, one, that's correct. Two, just curious if there's a point in that agreement with Dow where they would need to pay for the supply regardless of that cracker being online.

謝謝接線生。早安團隊。我想從脫乙烷塔和道瓊斯合約開始。聽起來您現在的計劃仍然是在某個時候開發它，甚至可能不需要陶氏再次宣佈設施時間表。我只是想確認一下，第一，這是正確的。二，我只是好奇與陶氏達成的協議中是否有一條規定，無論裂解裝置是否在線，他們都需要支付供應費用。

And then lastly, sorry for the multipart question here. But in the interim, this does seem to free up some capital, if you're not developing this tower imminently. So just curious how you're thinking about redeploying some of that capital?

最後，抱歉，我的問題涉及多個部分。但在此期間，如果您不打算立即開發這座塔，這似乎確實可以釋放一些資金。所以我很好奇您打算如何重新部署部分資本？

Jaret here. Yes, maybe I'll just take a step back. So we announced -- it was probably May of 2024, actually. We announced the supply agreement with Dow. And I think we've been saying quarter-over-quarter, we've been evaluating -- Pembina has the luxury of having multiple supply sources across its entire portfolio, and we've just been taking a prudent approach to evaluating what's the most cost-effective approach to that supply. And we have been signaling that RFS III, which was a clone of RFS II, does make a lot of logical sense to build the de-ethanizer side of that asset as part of our overall portfolio. And we continue to believe that, that still makes a lot of sense.

這裡是 Jaret。是的，也許我只是退後一步。所以我們宣布——實際上可能是 2024 年 5 月。我們宣布了與陶氏的供應協議。我認為我們一直在說，我們一直在進行季度環比評估——Pembina 擁有整個產品組合中多個供應源的優勢，我們一直在採取審慎的方法來評估最具成本效益的供應方法。我們一直在暗示，RFS III（RFS II 的克隆版）確實很有邏輯意義，將該資產的脫乙烷塔部分作為我們整體投資組合的一部分。我們仍然相信這一點，這仍然很有意義。

There was minimal capital being spent on the portfolio of assets in the calendar year of 2025. So even with the most recent reprofiling or delay that Dow has mentioned, there isn't a material change to our overall capital in 2025.

2025 日曆年，資產組合上花費的資本很少。因此，即使陶氏最近提到了重新配置或延遲，到 2025 年我們的整體資本也不會發生重大變化。

And we still believe, not knowing exactly when the new onstream date might be announced, we believe that it's kind of that -- it's just normal routine execution, doing the de-ethanizer tower. Now my team is probably cringing that I'm saying that, but it's not like a three- or four-year build for what we're doing.

我們仍然相信，雖然不知道新的投產日期具體何時公佈，但我們相信這只是脫乙烷塔的正常例行執行。現在我的團隊可能對我這麼說感到畏縮，但我們所做的事情並不是需要三到四年的時間才能完成的。

So, we absolutely believe that when we do get a little bit more line of sight, we'll be able to act quickly and have that asset on to meet our supply portfolio commitments.

因此，我們絕對相信，當我們確實獲得更多的視線時，我們將能夠迅速採取行動並使用該資產來履行我們的供應組合承諾。

Got it. That's good color. Second question, going back to the Alliance quickly. I don't think this was addressed in the prior question, but I know at one point, you've been talking about with these same customers, discussion around expanding that pipeline. Just sort of curious where those stand right now, if we're looking at maybe a singular integrated solution here when you announced the resolution here and how you're thinking about the timing?

知道了。這顏色真好。第二個問題，盡快回到聯盟。我不認為這個問題在先前的問題中得到解決，但我知道，您曾經與這些相同的客戶討論過擴大該管道的問題。我只是有點好奇這些現在處於什麼位置，當您在這裡宣布解決方案時，我們是否正在尋找一個單一的整合解決方案，以及您如何考慮時間表？

I won't get into the specifics of the negotiation, but I can say that, obviously, demand for incremental gas egress is extremely strong. And we have a couple of opportunities. We -- obviously, Alliance was built for a full path expansion all the way down into the Chicago market.

我不會談論談判的具體細節，但我可以說，顯然對增量天然氣出口的需求非常強勁。我們有幾個機會。顯然，我們建立 Alliance 是為了全面擴張，一直到芝加哥市場。

And there's also opportunities to do shorter haul expansions with less compressor stations here on the Canadian side into the Alberta Heartland. So we're just continuing to evaluate those and kind of in the pre-FEED engineering stages of that. But lots of demand for incremental liquids rich gas egress.

而且，還有機會在加拿大一側透過較少的壓縮機站進行短途擴建，以延伸至阿爾伯塔中心地帶。因此，我們只是繼續評估這些，並處於 FEED 工程的前期階段。但對富含液體的氣體出口增量的需求很大。

Understood. That's great to hear. I'll leave it there for today.

明白了。聽到這個消息真是太好了。今天我就把它留在那裡。

Thank you, gentlemen.

謝謝各位。

Theresa Chen from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Morning. I wanted to go back to the comments about risk sharing within Alliance. To your comment about your customers appreciating that Pembina is taking the risk. Does that mean the risk sharing or incremental risk shift from Pembina to customers is off the table? Or is that still a point of negotiation? And if so, if the risks were to move, what would that illustratively even look like?

早晨。我想回到有關聯盟內部風險分擔的評論。對於您所說的您的客戶讚賞 Pembina 願意承擔風險的評論。這是否意味著 Pembina 向客戶分擔風險或增加風險的措施不再可行？或者這仍然是一個談判點？如果是這樣，如果風險發生變化，那會是什麼樣子呢？

I don't think I can get into too many of the details, but maybe I'll just provide some color that unlike some of the other pipelines in Canada, we do take operating cost risk. And the reason Pembina at the time and the joint venture previously was open to that is that we do believe that we're extremely good at providing safe, reliable and cost-effective operations.

我認為我不能講太多細節，但也許我可以提供一些信息，與加拿大其他一些管道不同，我們確實承擔運營成本風險。Pembina 當時和之前的合資企業之所以對此持開放態度，是因為我們確實相信我們非常擅長提供安全、可靠且具有成本效益的營運。

But with that said, as we're the back and forth goes with the customers, there could be changes to that overall risk sharing profile as different inputs into the economic model change. So it's pretty live and dynamic right now, but -- and that's all I can say about that.

但話雖如此，隨著我們與客戶的反覆溝通，隨著經濟模型的不同輸入發生變化，整體風險分擔狀況可能會發生變化。所以現在它非常活躍且充滿活力，但是 - 這就是我能說的全部。

Okay. Fair enough. And to the earlier color about the bifurcation between volumes and revenue and EBITDA contribution due to the gap as customers ramp into the NEBC. When do you expect that to true up?

好的。很公平。並且由於客戶湧入 NEBC 而導致的銷售和收入以及 EBITDA 貢獻之間的分歧早先已經顯現。您預計什麼時候能夠實現這個目標？

Theresa, it's Cam here. I would say that that's a pretty consistent phenomenon or pretty consistent experience that we've seen. And the reason being is that as you've seen from us and continues to be the case, we continue to sign up new contracts on a regular basis. So as we continue to sign up new contracts and obviously, the contracts are a leading indicator against the fiscal volumes, they typically come first, the volumes come second, we've continued to see that lag over time.

特蕾莎，我是卡姆。我想說這是我們所見過的相當一致的現像或相當一致的經驗。原因在於，正如您從我們這裡看到的，並且這種情況仍在繼續，我們會繼續定期簽署新合約。因此，隨著我們繼續簽署新合同，顯然，合約是財政額的領先指標，合約通常排在第一位，而財政額排在第二位，我們一直看到這種滯後現象。

I'm not sure that we will expect those to true up. I think we continue to sign contracts as evidenced by this quarter. And so we will continue to see a gap between those revenue and physical volumes as a result of that.

我不確定我們是否會期望這些成為現實。我認為我們會繼續簽署合同，正如本季度所證明的那樣。因此，我們將繼續看到收入和實物量之間的差距。

And maybe I'll just add to that, that you do have to delaminate the difference between, so what we call our high vapor pressure products. So that's your C3+ and your C2+ versus your LVP or low vapor pressure, so your crude and your condensate. It is customer dependent and it is commodity dependent. Obviously, Pembina has a suite of pipelines in our conventional systems, C2+, C3+, condensate and crude.

也許我只是想補充一點，你必須區分我們所謂的高蒸汽壓產品之間的差異。這就是您的 C3+ 和 C2+ 與 LVP 或低蒸汽壓的關係，也就是您的原油和冷凝物。它依賴於客戶並且依賴商品。顯然，Pembina 在我們的常規系統中擁有一套管道，包括 C2+、C3+、凝析油和原油。

So there is different dynamics happening. Some customers are over on certain aspects of their contracts. But overall, you will see that true up. But it's not a blanket statement that all of our customers are below their firm or their take-or-pay and they're all drilling into it. It is dynamic between asset commodity and customer and region.

因此，存在著不同的動態發生。一些客戶已經完成了合約中某些條款的約定。但總的來說，你會發現這是真的。但這並不是一個籠統的說法，即我們所有的客戶都低於他們的公司或他們的照付不議價格，他們都在為此付出努力。資產商品與顧客、地域之間是動態的。

Thank you for that detailed. Answer.

謝謝你的詳細說明。回答。

Aaron MacNeil from TD Securities.

道明證券的 Aaron MacNeil。

Good Morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. Obviously, great to see the Montney contract with the quarter. Just wondering if you could provide any more detail beyond what's in the release. I can obviously appreciate that the disclosure is intentionally vague, but we're fielding the obvious questions from investors on magnitude of the contract volumetrically, duration, new level of contracting at both Taylor-to-Gordondale and RFS IV? And maybe just confirmation that it is a BC Montney customer given the contracting on specific pipelines that you noted? So just open-ended, anything you'd be comfortable sharing, just giving you the opportunity to do that.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。顯然，很高興看到 Montney 與本季簽訂了合約。我只是想知道您是否可以提供除發佈內容之外的更多詳細資訊。我顯然可以理解披露內容是故意含糊其辭的，但我們正在回答投資者提出的關於合約數量、期限、泰勒至戈登代爾和 RFS IV 的新合約水平等明顯問題？也許只是確認它是 BC Montney 的客戶，因為您提到了特定管道的合約？所以，一切開放，任何你願意分享的事情，都給你機會去做。

Yeah, You bet. Appreciate the question. So it is one of our -- I can't say it is one of our largest customers. It is the Northeast BC customer.

是的，當然。感謝你的提問。所以它是我們的一個——我不能說它是我們最大的客戶之一。它是 BC 省東北部的客戶。

And I think what I'd like to leave the group with is that this announcement, I think it just provides confidence that we recognize our customers do have a choice to flow on other service providers, and they continually to choose us for a safe, reliable and cost-effective options, specifically around the conventional pipeline.

我想留給大家的是，這個聲明增強了信心，我們認識到我們的客戶確實可以選擇其他服務提供者，並且他們不斷選擇我們，因為這是一種安全、可靠和具有成本效益的選擇，特別是在傳統管道方面。

And it's not only the safe, reliable operation and cost effective. It is that suite of different assets that I just referred to, the different pipelines connected to all of the fractionators in the Fort Saskatchewan area, connected to all of the egress outlets, et cetera. So we do recognize they have choices, and we do appreciate them choosing us to be their service provider.

而且它不僅運作安全可靠而且成本低。這就是我剛才提到的一套不同的資產，不同的管道連接到薩斯喀徹溫堡地區的所有分餾塔，連接到所有的出口，等等。因此，我們確實認識到他們有選擇，並且我們非常感謝他們選擇我們作為他們的服務提供者。

I will say that this is -- I'll use the word, material volume. It's existing volumes across the enterprise, so the pipelines, the fracs in our marketing business.

我會說這是——我會用「材料量」這個詞。這是整個企業的現有產量，包括管道、壓裂和我們的行銷業務。

But it is also new. And it's -- there's kind of twofold here. One is that it shows the resiliency and the requirement for high utilization across the base assets, but also reinforces the need necessity for new expansions albeit the Taylor-to Gordondale area, new pump stations within Alberta, et cetera.

但它也是新的。這有雙重意義。一方面，它顯示了基礎資產的彈性和高利用率的要求，另一方面，也強調了新擴建的必要性，例如泰勒至戈登代爾地區、阿爾伯塔省的新泵站等等。

We've referenced pump station expansions between Fox and Namao. These are all incrementally required as customers reaffirm their base volumes and sign up with new revenue barrels throughout our system.

我們提到了 Fox 和 Namao 之間的泵站擴建。隨著客戶重申其基本交易量並在我們的系統中籤署新的收入桶，這些都是逐步需要的。

Aaron, I'll just maybe add a couple of data points. The renewal piece is obviously -- we've talked about it, it's a very meaningful piece of our Peace contract structure. It's not quite 10%, but it's pretty close. And obviously, the commitments beyond that flow through both the frac as well as other pieces. And so when we talk about it being a fairly material contract, that's the renewal piece. Obviously, the new piece of it is obviously quite material, not quite to that magnitude, obviously, but very meaningful on its own.

亞倫，我可能只會添加幾個數據點。續約部分顯然是——我們已經討論過了，這是我們和平合約結構中非常重要的一部分。雖然還未達 10%，但已經非常接近了。顯然，除此之外的承諾還涉及壓裂部分和其他部分。因此，當我們說這是一份相當重要的合約時，這就是續約部分。顯然，新作品顯然非常重要，雖然沒有達到那麼大的規模，但本身卻非常有意義。

Okay. That was more than I expected to get. I'm really sorry to go back to Alliance, but you did mention the risk sharing earlier and that you're not a cost of service pipeline. I just -- I guess I bring that up because the original CER complaint essentially compared Alliance to rate-regulated pipelines. So the question is, how do you define an appropriate risk-adjusted return? And obviously, it's not a rate-regulated return, but like is the right way to think about it in the context of prevailing industry build multiples? Or is there anything you can share there?

好的。這比我預期得到的還要多。我真的很抱歉回到聯盟，但你之前確實提到了風險分擔，而且你不是服務管道的成本。我只是——我想我提出這一點是因為最初的 CER 投訴基本上將 Alliance 與受費率管制的管道進行了比較。那麼問題是，如何定義適當的風險調整報酬？顯然，這不是利率管制的回報，但在當前行業構建倍數的背景下，這是正確的思考方式嗎？或是可以分享什麼嗎？

Maybe I'll just -- I'll touch quickly on that. It's -- that's one of the biggest challenges through this negotiation is exactly what you just touched on. And we are different than any other asset, and we're just working through that. What does that risk premium look like for Pembina?

也許我只是——我會快速談一下這一點。這是——這是這次談判面臨的最大挑戰之一，正如您剛才提到的。我們與其他資產不同，我們正在努力解決這個問題。對 Pembina 來說，風險溢酬是多少？

Yes. I appreciate that. That's a tough one to answer.

是的。我很感激。這是一個很難回答的問題。

Yes, Aaron, the only thing I'd say is, I mean, obviously, the filings are public. You can look at all the other pipelines, which are effectively no risk, utility type structure and see that the ROEs there have climbed into the mid-teens in some cases. And so that's a no-risk scenario. So if you sort of look at Alliance, obviously, taking on the kind of risk that it does today, we believe that it's appropriate to earn a premium to that. And perhaps that's what we're getting at with an appropriate risk-adjusted premium. Probably as far as I can go there, but I'd just make those data points clear.

是的，亞倫，我唯一想說的是，顯然這些文件是公開的。您可以查看所有其他管道，它們實際上沒有風險，是公用事業類型的結構，並且可以看到在某些情況下那裡的 ROE 已經攀升至十幾歲左右。所以這是一個沒有風險的情況。因此，如果你看一下 Alliance，顯然，它承擔了今天這樣的風險，我們認為賺取溢價是合適的。也許這就是我們透過適當的風險調整保費所要達到的目的。我可能已經盡力了，但我只是想讓這些數據點清晰一些。

That's super helpful. Thanks everyone for the answers. We'll turn it back.

這非常有幫助。感謝大家的回答。我們會將其退回。

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Praneeth Satish。

Thanks, good morning. Maybe let me get my Alliance question out of the way here. It just kind of recognizing you're limited in what you can say, but can you clarify the timeline for when the tolls would take effect as it relates to EBITDA? I know sometimes that the timing of the actual settlement, it can be different than when you accrue it in EBITDA.

謝謝，早安。也許我可以在這裡解決我的聯盟問題。我只是承認您能說的內容有限，但您能否澄清一下收費與 EBITDA 相關的生效時間表？我知道有時實際結算的時間可能與 EBITDA 中的累積時間不同。

And then second, without giving a specific number, are you able to confirm that any potential impact would be contained within the guidance range that you've provided within the midpoint to low end of the range?

其次，在沒有給出具體數字的情況下，您能否確認任何潛在影響都將包含在您提供的指導範圍內，即範圍的中點到低端？

So on the timing piece, I'd say that's still part of the negotiations, so no update. And with that in mind, we really can't comment on 2025 guidance and giving that clarity will just -- is another angle to try to figure out kind of where we're at in our negotiations, and it's just too confidential and sensitive. So we're just not going to answer that question. I apologize. As soon as we can say more, we will.

因此，關於時間安排，我認為這仍然是談判的一部分，所以沒有更新。考慮到這一點，我們真的無法對 2025 年的指導意見發表評論，而給出明確的答覆只是從另一個角度試圖弄清楚我們在談判中所處的位置，但這太過機密和敏感。所以我們不會回答這個問題。我很抱歉。一旦我們能夠透露更多信息，我們就會透露。

Understood. That's fine. And then switching gears, maybe if we could get an update on the Greenlight data center project. And I guess, specifically what I wanted to know is any more color on whether the JV has entered the queue for gas turbines because we're seeing the lead times elongate, the prices go up. Have you -- has the JV secured pricing on the turbines and other critical equipment costs and just any broader update you can provide?

明白了。沒關係。然後換個話題，也許我們可以獲得有關 Greenlight 資料中心專案的最新消息。我想，我特別想知道的是合資企業是否已經進入燃氣渦輪機隊列，因為我們看到交貨時間延長，價格上漲。合資公司是否已經確定了渦輪機和其他關鍵設備成本的定價，以及您能否提供任何更廣泛的更新資訊？

Sure. It's Chris Scherman. Thanks for the question. The projects are progressing nicely. We're really focused on our interconnection applications at the minute -- at the moment. And we haven't made any turbine long-lead purchases, but we are actively engaged with equipment suppliers. We're very alive to the cost and timing dynamics that are unfolding out there, and we're going to be prudent with our order placement and frankly, the timing still aligns with our expectations. So everything is going well and on track both commercially and on the project side.

當然。我是克里斯·謝爾曼。謝謝你的提問。專案進展順利。目前，我們真正關注的是我們的互連應用。我們還沒有進行任何渦輪機的長期採購，但我們正在積極與設備供應商合作。我們非常關注正在展開的成本和時間動態，我們將謹慎下訂單，坦白說，時間仍然符合我們的預期。因此，無論是商業方面還是專案方面，一切都進展順利，一切正常。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Rob Hope with Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Rob Hope。

Hello everyone. First question is on the Yellowhead straddle. So ATCO continues to pursue that project even with the Dow delay. How do you think about the potential to straddle that asset in the context of a Dow delay? Or could incremental ethane and C3+ allow that project to stand on its own?

大家好。第一個問題是關於 Yellowhead 跨界的。因此，即使道瓊指數出現延遲，ATCO 仍繼續推進該項目。在道瓊斯指數延遲上漲的背景下，您如何看待跨界該資產的潛力？或者增量乙烷和 C3+ 能否讓該計畫獨立發展？

I think from a timing perspective, Rob, nothing really changes on our end in terms of that project. That was always a late 2028, 2029 project. So without knowing the specifics around the extent of Dow delay, I really can't comment on that. But as of right now, we're continuing to progress that pipeline just due to when the in-service day was. So no change from that on our end.

羅布，我認為從時間角度來看，就該專案而言，我們這邊實際上沒有任何變化。那始終是一個 2028 年末或 2029 年的項目。因此，如果不知道道瓊斯指數延遲的具體程度，我真的無法對此發表評論。但截至目前，我們正在繼續推進該管道的建設，因為投入使用的日子已經到了。因此從我們的角度來看，這方面並沒有任何改變。

And Rob, I would just add that obviously, the announcement from Dow and the assessment on our part and everything that comes with that is kind of happening in real time here. Dow is obviously a big customer of ours and a big partner.

羅布，我只想補充一點，顯然，陶氏化學公司的聲明和我們的評估以及隨之而來的一切都是實時發生的。陶氏顯然是我們的大客戶和重要合作夥伴。

We were not spending material dollars on that in 2025, obviously, it's obviously early works. And so we're obviously going to get more information as the weeks and the next two, three months tick by here, and we'll obviously make judgments at that point. But I just want to make clear that we weren't spending material dollars on that in 2025. Obviously, just some early works and engineering work.

顯然，我們不會在 2025 年為此投入大量資金，這顯然是早期作品。因此，隨著時間的推移以及接下來的兩三個月，我們顯然會獲得更多信息，並在那時做出判斷。但我只是想明確表示，我們不會在 2025 年為此投入大量資金。顯然，只是一些早期的作品和工程工作。

But you did nail it, Rob. Sorry, that there is accretive C3+ that can be extracted from the gas. If this did go into service and the ethane component on the sales side was a little bit delayed. There is NOI associated with this that would be accretive to the project.

但你確實做到了，羅布。抱歉，有增生的 C3+ 可以從氣體中提取出來。如果這確實投入使用，銷售方面的乙烷成分就會稍微延遲。與此相關的 NOI 將對項目產生增值作用。

All right. I appreciate that. And then maybe diving deeper into the Dow agreement. So it appears that the commentary today is that it's a delay, not a cancel. But it's the delay from Dow is substantial, do you have a sunset date or any recourse?

好的。我很感激。然後也許會更深入地研究道瓊斯協議。因此，今天的評論似乎是說這是延遲，而不是取消。但陶氏的拖延實在太大了，你們有截止日期或任何補救措施嗎？

I appreciate the question, Rob. I think out of respect for our partner, we're going to refrain from sort of getting into the nitty-gritty of the agreement. I guess what I would say is that we feel very comfortable that we have capital protection for capital, which we would spend. And outside of that, I don't think we want to sort of go much deeper than that.

我很感謝你提出這個問題，羅布。我認為，出於對我們合作夥伴的尊重，我們將避免深入討論協議的細節。我想說的是，我們對所花費的資本有資本保護，我們感到非常放心。除此之外，我認為我們不想再深入探討這個問題。

Understandable. Thank you. I'll hop back in the queue.

可以理解。謝謝。我會重新回到隊列中。

Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial.

來自國家銀行金融公司的派崔克肯尼。

Hey, good morning guys. I'll try not to ask anything too commercially sensitive here. But just on the strategy to diversify your NGL markets, I just wanted to get a better sense as to where you're at today relative to, say, where you want to land in terms of exposure to various markets?

嘿，大家早安。我會盡量不在這裡詢問任何過於商業敏感的問題。但是，就多元化 NGL 市場的策略而言，我只是想更了解您目前的狀況，相對於您想在各個市場中達到的目標，您目前的狀況如何？

And I guess if we had a bit more color on what kinds of opportunities you're looking at in order to access non-US markets, both on a proprietary basis as well as utilizing third-party infrastructure, that would be great.

我想，如果我們能夠更詳細地了解您正在尋找哪些機會來進入非美國市場，無論是專有基礎還是利用第三方基礎設施，那就太好了。

It's Chris Scherman. I think we've been fairly clear about our aspirations around propane and some of the optimism and bull case we have for the West Coast of Canada. I think the positions we have today, both through our own facilities and others are serving us well.

我是克里斯·謝爾曼。我認為我們已經相當清楚我們對丙烷的期望以及對加拿大西海岸的一些樂觀和看漲觀點。我認為我們今天所擁有的職位，無論是透過我們自己的設施還是其他設施，都對我們很有幫助。

We like that ratio as far as how it fits into our portfolio, but we've also talked about a desire to optimize Prince Rupert to increase some of the margins there. And honestly, if the price is right, we'll look at more off the West Coast for propane.

就其如何融入我們的投資組合而言，我們喜歡這個比例，但我們也談到了優化魯珀特王子港以增加那裡的一些利潤率的願望。老實說，如果價格合適，我們會考慮在西海岸尋找更多的丙烷。

As well, we're keenly watching butane. We're looking at a number of different projects to try to figure out where butane is going to fit best into North American market, other product markets as well as potentially off the coast in the future. I can't get too much into that, but we're putting a lot of effort and time into all of those.

同樣，我們也在密切關注丁烷。我們正在研究許多不同的項目，試圖找出丁烷最適合北美市場、其他產品市場以及未來潛在的海岸市場。我不能透露太多，但我們在所有這些方面都投入了大量的精力和時間。

Okay. That's great. And then I guess, just on the remarketing of the capacity at Cedar. Would you say your patience is paying off here in terms of the geopolitical trends supporting higher demand and perhaps stronger economics for this capacity versus the first 1.5 million tonnes? And just curious as well if you can comment on the level of interest in the potential expansion at Cedar. Just wondering if counterparties are considering dovetailing an option for the expanded phase as well.

好的。那太棒了。然後我想，這只是關於 Cedar 產能的重新行銷。您是否認為您的耐心得到了回報？地緣政治趨勢支持更高的需求，與前 150 萬噸相比，這項產能可能具有更強的經濟效益？我也很好奇，您是否可以評論人們對 Cedar 潛在擴張的興趣程度。只是想知道交易對手是否也在考慮為擴展階段提供一個選項。

Yeah, Pat, it's Scott here. I think it's more than just the geopolitical changes, I think it's also the fact that we continue to see growing gas out of Northeast BC that needs an egress solution. We're continuing to see strong arbs between Canadian gas and Asian gas prices. And so that's driving pretty significant interest in the Cedar capacity. So we're pleased with where that's going.

是的，帕特，我是史考特。我認為這不僅僅是地緣政治變化，還因為我們繼續看到不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部不斷增長的天然氣需要出口解決方案。我們繼續看到加拿大天然氣和亞洲天然氣價格之間的強勁套利。這引起了人們對 Cedar 產能的極大興趣。我們對目前的情況感到滿意。

Also the fact that obviously, we're FID-ed and we're a year into construction and a year closer in service date. So I think all of those factors are leading to decent interest in this project, and we're pretty pleased with where we're going.

顯然，我們已經完成了最終投資決定 (FID)，並且已經進行了一年的建設，距離投入使用日期還有一年的時間。所以我認為所有這些因素都引起了人們對這個項目的濃厚興趣，我們對我們的進展感到非常滿意。

So I would say the patience has paid off. I mean at this stage, we are working very hard to turn the definitives into a final executable agreement, but they're big, complicated agreements. And as we've said for the last several months that we'll do the right deal for Pembina, not the fastest deal for Pembina, and we will continue to progress that.

所以我想說耐心已經得到回報了。我的意思是，在現階段，我們正在努力將最終結果轉化為可執行的協議，但它們是龐大而複雜的協議。正如我們過去幾個月所說的那樣，我們將為 Pembina 達成正確的交易，而不是最快的交易，我們將繼續推進這一進程。

I would say as it relates to a potential Cedar 2, certainly, the gas demand is there. We saw that from our recontracting efforts. Based on early stages negotiations on Cedar capacity, we believe there is demand for a Cedar 2. But until we have line of sight to that gas on Coastal GasLink or other solutions, that's kind of the gating item and that's something that we continue to work on.

我想說的是，由於它與潛在的 Cedar 2 相關，因此肯定存在天然氣需求。我們從重新承包的努力中看到了這一點。根據有關 Cedar 產能的早期談判，我們認為對 Cedar 2 有需求。但是，在我們透過 Coastal GasLink 或其他解決方案獲得該天然氣資源之前，這都是一種門控項目，我們會繼續努力。

Okay, that's great color. I, appreciate it guys. I'll leave it there.

好的，顏色很棒。我非常感謝你們。我就把它留在那裡。

Maurice Choy from RBC Dominion Securities

加拿大皇家銀行多美利證券公司的 Maurice Choy

Thank you and good morning everyone. I just wanted to take a broader picture about the long-term WCSB outlook and hone in on the Taylor-to-Gordondale NGL pipeline project. Clearly, there is a competing third-party project out there, obviously, against your projects in the CR process. So just your thoughts as how you think the CR will resolve these sort of issues? And taking one step further, any reason why you would think there wouldn't be sufficient contracted volumes for both projects to proceed in the coming quarters?

謝謝大家，早安。我只是想更廣泛地了解 WCSB 的長期前景，並專注於泰勒至戈登代爾 NGL 管道項目。顯然，在 CR 流程中，存在一個與您的專案競爭的第三方專案。那麼您認為 CR 將如何解決這些問題？更進一步說，您認為未來幾季這兩個項目的合約量不足以繼續進行，有什麼理由嗎？

Morning, Maurice, Jaret here. So yes, we recognize that there is currently two projects moving forward. And we're actually -- you may be surprised to hear this, but I think I mentioned it before. We're very supportive of both projects moving forward, removing egress constraints for our Western Canadian sedimentary basin customers, upstream customers is critical. That's what midstreamers do.

早安，莫里斯，我是賈雷特。是的，我們認識到目前有兩個項目正在推進。事實上——你聽到這個可能會感到驚訝，但我想我之前提到過。我們非常支持這兩個專案的推進，消除西加拿大沉積盆地客戶和上游客戶的出口限制至關重要。這就是中游人員所做的事。

We remove constraints so they can get to higher value markets. And overall, between LNG Canada Phase 1, Pembina is highly confident LNG Canada Phase 2 happens for all the reasons Scott just mentioned, world-scale resource and low commodities. You've got your Cedar, you've got other projects in the works and/or in construction.

我們消除限制，以便他們能夠進入更高價值的市場。總體而言，在 LNG 加拿大第一階段計畫期間，Pembina 對 LNG 加拿大第二階段計畫的順利實施充滿信心，原因正如 Scott 剛才提到的，即世界級的資源和低廉的商品價格。您已經有了 Cedar，還有其他項目正在進行和/或建設中。

We believe that the overall NGL and condensate demand in Canada, we still import 250,000-plus barrels a day as a nation and the NGLs that are going to come with that incremental gas egress need to get to a market, need to get to a fractionator, need to get to a petchem facility.

我們認為，就加拿大的整體 NGL 和凝析油需求而言，我們整個國家每天仍進口 25 萬桶以上，而隨著天然氣增量出口而來的 NGL 需要進入市場、需要進入分餾塔、需要進入石化設施。

So we're very bullish that both projects are required, and we'll continue to work with our customers and work with the regulator and the communities to satisfy the requirements to get ours across the finish line.

因此，我們非常樂觀地認為這兩個項目都是必需的，我們將繼續與我們的客戶、監管機構和社區合作，以滿足要求，使我們的專案順利完成。

Understood. If I just finish up with a cleanup question here. Cam, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned you expect to exit 2025 at 3.4times, 3.7 times debt to EBITDA. And I think that shifted a touch by about 0.1 from what you mentioned in the last conference call. So clearly, still well below the low end of your target range, but just wondering what assumptions have changed, especially given that the guidance for EBITDA has perhaps some gross spending was assumed. Just a thought there.

明白了。如果我剛剛在這裡完成了一個清理問題。卡姆，我想在你準備好的發言中，你提到你預計到 2025 年債務與 EBITDA 比率將達到 3.4 倍、3.7 倍。我認為這與您在上次電話會議中提到的相比，有大約 0.1 的偏差。因此很明顯，仍然遠低於目標範圍的低端，但只是想知道哪些假設發生了變化，特別是考慮到 EBITDA 指導可能假設了一些總支出。只是一個想法。

A little bit of timing of spend, Maurice, and also just assumptions on timing of cash flow. It really sort of speaks to timing of cash flow in the calendar year versus subsequent year. That has to do with changes in noncash working capital as well as the timing of our cash tax payments. So it's really more so timing than any sort of structural change.

莫里斯，關於支出時間的一點看法，以及關於現金流時間的假設。它實際上指的是日曆年與下一年度的現金流時間。這與非現金營運資本的變化以及現金納稅的時間有關。因此，這實際上更多的是時機問題，而不是任何結構性變化。

Understand. And just to reconfirm the guidance that you have right now still assumes interim Alliance too, is that right?

理解。再次確認一下，您目前的指導意見仍然假設臨時聯盟，對嗎？

Correct. Perfect Thank you.

正確的。非常好，謝謝。

Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets.

加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場的 Robert Catellier。

Hey, just a follow-up on the situation with Dow. I wonder if you have any sense on what they need to see to resume this project? Was it delayed because of a trade-related issue? For example, maybe the products was competitive because of tariffs? Or is it something about the economy or anything related to Canadian policies?

嘿，我只是想跟進一下陶氏的情況。我想知道您是否知道他們需要看到什麼才能恢復這個項目？是否因為貿易相關問題而延遲？例如，也許因為關稅，產品才具有競爭力？還是關於經濟或加拿大政策的事情？

Rob, it's Scott here. I -- that's a better question for Dow. I just -- out of respect for our partner. I can't comment on that.

羅布，我是史考特。我——這對陶氏來說是一個更好的問題。我只是——出於對我們合作夥伴的尊重。我對此無法發表評論。

Okay. I understand that. And then just moving on to just tariffs in general. What is the tariff uncertainty done to activity levels for Watson Island and the export outlook in general?

好的。我明白。然後我們再來談談一般關稅問題。關稅不確定性對沃森島的活動水準和整體出口前景有何影響？

It's Chris. Well, first of all, tariffs have driven lots of volatility, which we've all seen and undoubtedly, some shifting trade patterns.

是克里斯。首先，關稅引發了許多波動，我們都已經看到了，毫無疑問，一些貿易模式也發生了轉變。

I think in the short term, we've seen strong volumes off the West Coast, which is really in line with increased demand for, frankly, Canadian propane as a result of some of the dynamics going on in the Gulf Coast and some of the curtailed supply from China.

我認為，短期內，西海岸的丙烷產量強勁，這與墨西哥灣沿岸的一些動態和中國供應減少導致的加拿大丙烷需求增長相一致。

But I think in the long term, it really positions Watson and really positions the West Coast of Canada really, really well. We've got tremendous resource in Western Canada. We've got a really proven pathway to get product to the West Coast.

但我認為，從長遠來看，它確實為沃森和加拿大西海岸帶來了非常好的地位。我們在加拿大西部擁有豐富的資源。我們擁有一條行之有效的途徑將產品運送到西海岸。

And we've got supply security concerns for a good part of the world that's going to be looking for alternative sources. I think Canada is a great piece of that. And so we'll be looking to leverage that as much as possible.

我們對世界大部分地區的供應安全感到擔憂，他們將尋找替代來源。我認為加拿大是其中的佼佼者。因此我們將盡可能地利用這一點。

Okay, thanks everyone.

好的，謝謝大家。

Sumantra Banerjee with UBS.

瑞銀的 Sumantra Banerjee。

Hi, thank you for taking the question. Just to go back to capital allocation and leverage. It's great to see that you increased the dividend and also the leverage target range went down. Just wanted to get any high-level thoughts on capital allocation priorities going forward?

您好，感謝您回答這個問題。回到資本配置和槓桿的問題。很高興看到您增加了股息並且槓桿目標範圍也下降了。只是想了解一下關於未來資本配置優先事項的高層想法？

Yeah, good morning. It's Cam. As I mentioned earlier, I think it's something we've clearly been watching in real time as the markets evolve through the greater macro volatility in the last couple of months here. Clearly, in our guidance, we indicated a preference or sort of a base case disposition towards debt reduction in 2025 as we have free cash flow, which we expected to have and continue to expect that.

是的，早安。是 Cam。正如我之前提到的，我認為這是我們在過去幾個月裡隨著市場經歷更大的宏觀波動而即時關注的事情。顯然，在我們的指導中，我們表明了對 2025 年減少債務的偏好或基本傾向，因為我們擁有自由現金流，我們預計將擁有並繼續期待這一點。

I think as we've seen things ebb and flow throughout the course of the year, we've obviously taken that information in. And we obviously haven't changed, that's leading up to the Q1 print here. We're in blackout through April. So we wouldn't have been in a position to execute any share buybacks even if that would have made sense at the time.

我認為，隨著我們看到一年來事態的起伏，我們顯然已經吸收了這些資訊。而且我們顯然沒有改變，這就是導致第一季業績的原因。整個四月我們都處於停電狀態。因此，即使當時回購股票是合理的，我們也無法執行任何股票回購。

And so we are sort of looking at all the signals here and are looking at things on the back of the first quarter release and as we come out of blackout and obviously, are reconsidering whether we shift some of that free cash flow towards share buybacks. I wouldn't put a pin in it at the moment, but certainly something with lots of active debate and will ultimately be market condition dependent.

因此，我們正在觀察這裡的所有訊號，並根據第一季發布的數據進行觀察，隨著我們走出低谷，顯然我們正在重新考慮是否將部分自由現金流轉向股票回購。我目前還不能對此下定論，但肯定會引起很多積極的爭論，並且最終將取決於市場狀況。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then just a more general one on guidance. So you mentioned that you're tracking towards the midpoint currently. And of course, there's a lot of talk about volatility in the macro. But are there any projects or other factors that could push you more towards the top end of the guidance?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後只是一個更一般的指導。所以您提到您目前正在追蹤中點。當然，關於宏觀波動的討論也很多。但是，是否存在一些項目或其他因素可以推動您進一步達到指導的最高點？

I would say that the biggest one would obviously be just in the near term, it's frankly probably going to be where we see the commodity business. I mean, I think it's no secret that, that is the bigger driver -- biggest driver of variability in our business.

我想說的是，最大的一個顯然只是在短期內，坦白說，它可能是我們所看到的商品業務。我的意思是，我認為這是更大的驅動因素——我們業務變化的最大驅動因素，這不是什麼秘密。

Obviously, we do have some interruptible volume exposure in our business. And certainly, where there are dislocations on competing pipelines or alternatively egress constraints elsewhere and we stand to benefit from that. That's another driver of variability.

顯然，我們的業務中確實存在一些可中斷的交易量風險。當然，當競爭管道出現混亂或其他地方的出口受到限制時，我們將從中受益。這是造成變化的另一個因素。

Obviously, we do see seasonality in our business as we highlighted in the release and certainly Q2 and Q3 we do expect to be sequentially lower compared to Q1, which is normal, and that's a function of all the elements we saw. The cost picture on that side is largely well understood, but really, it's the revenue opportunities that could come on top of that.

顯然，正如我們在發布中所強調的那樣，我們的業務確實存在季節性，而且我們預計第二季和第三季的業績與第一季相比會有所下降，這是正常的，這是我們看到的所有因素共同作用的結果。這方面的成本情況基本上是眾所周知的，但實際上，這是可能隨之而來的收入機會。

So if I summarize that, I would continue to say that market price variability will be the biggest single driver. And then lastly, sort of the interruptible volume situation as egress on our own or on third-party pipelines becomes available or constrained.

因此，如果我總結一下，我會繼續說市場價格波動將是最大的單一驅動因素。最後，當我們自己或第三方管道上的出口變得可用或受限時，可中斷捲的情況就會有所變化。

Great thank you.

非常感謝。

Ben Pham from BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場的 Ben Pham。

Hi, good morning. A couple of questions on the marketing and the guidance you've maintained for the year, Q1, you've pretty much hit almost half of it so far. Can you share details on hedging on that segment? And also just a trend around propane barrels. Is the trend over time from your advantage to move more barrels to the Canadian West Coast? And how and if that could impact the long-term outlook in marketing EBITDA?

嗨，早安。關於行銷和您今年維持的指導，有幾個問題，Q1，到目前為止您已經完成了一半。您能分享一下該部分對沖的詳細資訊嗎？這也是丙烷桶的流行趨勢。隨著時間的推移，將更多的石油運往加拿大西海岸的趨勢是否對您有利？這會對行銷 EBITDA 的長期前景產生什麼影響？是否會產生影響？

Sure. It's Chris. So on the hedging side, our frac spread business is in and around 50% hedged here across the full year of '25. And so we've got a degree of protection from the volatility that Cam was mentioning on the frac spread side.

當然。是克里斯。因此，在對沖方面，我們的壓裂價差業務在 25 年全年的對沖率約為 50%。因此，我們在一定程度上獲得了保護，免受 Cam 在壓裂價差方面提到的波動的影響。

And then as to how we're thinking about the market long term, we've been, I think, fairly consistent for a while that we think the long-term resilient markets for the Canadian wave of growth that's common will continue to come is global. US demand has been strong and there's lots of different narratives out there about how that might unfold over the next while. But I think in the long term, the most resilient markets are going to be global.

至於我們如何看待長期市場，我認為，我們一直以來都相當一致地認為，加拿大共同成長浪潮的長期彈性市場將持續影響全球。美國的需求一直很強勁，對於未來一段時間的需求將如何發展，有許多不同的說法。但我認為從長遠來看，最具彈性的市場將是全球性的。

And so we'll be striving to get as much growth as possible, access to those markets. We remain constructive on our portfolio and think we've got a nice balance at the moment between some North American markets and global markets. But as we look forward, we truly think the most resilient markets are going to be global.

因此，我們將努力實現盡可能多的成長，進入這些市場。我們對我們的投資組合仍然持建設性態度，並認為目前我們在北美市場和全球市場之間取得了良好的平衡。但展望未來，我們確實認為最具彈性的市場將是全球性的。

And I would just add to that, Ben, that in terms of hedging, Chris mentioned that we're about 50% hedged. We are hedged at levels which are in excess of the current sort of outlook for the balance of the year to the tune of 10% to 15% above current levels.

本，我還要補充一點，就對沖而言，克里斯提到我們的對沖率約為 50%。我們的對沖水準超出了今年餘下時間的當前預期，高出目前水準 10% 至 15%。

Okay. Got it. And just on Alliance, but I'm not going to ask the tolls. I just wanted to go back. When you underwrote that asset, you had synergy expectations. Just wondering where you track to that? And then also just, wasn't there something about the Aux Sable marketing business in terms of higher volumes in the late decade time frame? Just where are you with that?

好的。知道了。只是關於聯盟，但我不會問通行費。我只是想回去。當你承保該資產時，你就會有綜效的預期。只是想知道你追蹤到哪裡了？那麼，Aux Sable 的行銷業務在近十年的時間內銷量不是有所提升嗎？你現在在哪裡？

Yes, Ben, good call out. First thing I would say is that if you remember back to our announcement there, I would say that the lion's share of the synergies, the material amount of them were actually coming from the Aux Sable business.

是的，本，很好的呼聲。我想說的第一件事是，如果您還記得我們當時的公告，我想說，協同效應的最大份額，其中的實質數量實際上來自 Aux Sable 業務。

There's a significant amount of commercial opportunities in the of Aux Sable business. Some small opportunities on the cost side across both assets, but more so on the commercial side, and those are largely on the Aux Sable side.

Aux Sable 業務中蘊藏大量商業機會。兩種資產在成本方面都存在一些小機會，但更多的是在商業方面，而這些機會主要集中在 Aux Sable 方面。

I would say that, so far, our perspective is we're tracking very well to our plans, timing. I think we communicated at the time a range of $40 million to $65 million, and that obviously had a ramp to it. Some of those come very quickly. Some of those take a little bit of time.

我想說，到目前為止，我們的觀點是，我們正在很好地按照我們的計劃和時間表進行。我認為我們當時傳達的範圍是 4000 萬美元到 6500 萬美元，而且顯然這是一個上升的過程。有些事情發生得非常快。其中一些需要一點時間。

And certainly, for 2025, we're tracking towards our intention there, which is probably at the lower end of the range as we expected and continue to see the integration opportunities, and we'll continue to look for more, but so far tracking according to time.

當然，對於 2025 年，我們正在朝著我們的目標前進，這可能處於我們預期的範圍的低端，並繼續看到整合的機會，我們將繼續尋找更多，但到目前為止，根據時間進行追蹤。

Okay. Got it. Just one last quick cleanup, and I don't think this applies to anything else in your asset base. But if anything, just to thinking about Alliance, any other assets through 2026, I guess that's your current guidance time frame that's up for toll, challenges or reusing (inaudible)?

好的。知道了。只需最後一次快速清理，我認為這不適用於您的資產庫中的任何其他內容。但無論如何，只要考慮聯盟，到 2026 年的任何其他資產，我想這就是你目前的指導時間框架，可以承受損失、挑戰或重複使用（聽不清楚）？

Those are the 2 assets. Obviously, the 2 assets here that are sort of federally regulated would have been Cochin and Alliance. And obviously, we've dealt with both of those. So nothing else.

這是兩項資產。顯然，這裡受聯邦監管的兩項資產是 Cochin 和 Alliance。顯然，我們已經處理了這兩個問題。所以沒有別的了。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Scott for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話交給史考特，請他作最後發言。

Great. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking this afternoon at our AGM. Thank you.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家今天的加入我們，我們期待今天下午在年度股東大會上發言。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。