Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Pembina Pipeline Corporation 2024 年第四季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

This call is being recorded in February 28, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Tucunel, VP of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

該通話於 2025 年 2 月 28 日錄製。現在，我想將會議交給資本市場副總裁 Dan Tucunel。請繼續。

Thank you, Constantin. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the fourth quarter of 2024. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Cameron Goldade, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pembina's leadership team, including Jaret Sprott, Janet Loduca, Stu Taylor, Ava Bisha and Chris Scherman.

謝謝你，康斯坦丁。大家早安。歡迎參加 Pembina 的電話會議和網路廣播，回顧 2024 年第四季的亮點。今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Scott Burrows；以及高級副總裁兼財務長 Cameron Goldade，以及 Pembina 領導團隊的其他成員，包括 Jaret Sprott、Janet Loduca、Stu Taylor、Ava Bisha 和 Chris Scherman。

I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections. Forward-looking statements we may express or implied today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's management's discussion and analysis dated February 27, 2025, for the period ended December 31, 2024, as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday, which are all available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR Plus and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Scott.

我想提醒您，今天發表的一些評論可能具有前瞻性，並且基於 Pembina 當前的預期、估計、判斷和預測。我們今天可能表達或暗示的前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。此外，所提供的一些資訊涉及非公認會計準則指標。要了解有關這些前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的更多信息，請參閱該公司管理層於 2025 年 2 月 27 日對截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日期間撰寫的討論和分析，以及 Pembina 昨天發布的新聞稿，這些新聞稿均可在 pembina.com 以及 SEDAR Plus 和 EDGAR 上在線查閱。現在我將把事情交給史考特。

Thanks, Dan. We were pleased yesterday to report our fourth quarter results, which included quarterly earnings of $572 million, record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.254 billion and record quarterly adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $922 million or $1.59 per share. We also delivered 2024 full year earnings of $1.874 billion, record annual adjusted EBITDA of $4.408 billion and record full year adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $3.265 million or $5.70 per share. A record financial year reflects the positive impact of recent acquisitions, growing volumes in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and a strong contribution from the marketing business. In addition to strong financial and operational results, 2024 was marked by several accomplishments that highlighted the successful execution of Pembina's strategy and our focus on strengthening our existing franchise, increasing our exposure to lighter hydrocarbons and resilient end-use markets and accessing global market pricing for Canadian energy products.

謝謝，丹。昨天，我們很高興地報告了我們的第四季度業績，其中包括季度收益 5.72 億美元、季度調整後 EBITDA 創紀錄地達到 12.54 億美元，季度調整後經營活動現金流創紀錄地達到 9.22 億美元或每股 1.59 美元。我們也實現了 2024 年全年收益 18.74 億美元，年度調整後 EBITDA 創下 44.08 億美元的紀錄，全年調整後經營活動現金流創下 326.5 萬美元或每股 5.70 美元的紀錄。創紀錄的財政年度反映了近期收購的正面影響、西加拿大沉積盆地產量的成長以及行銷業務的強勁貢獻。除了強勁的財務和營運績效外，2024 年還取得了多項成就，突顯了 Pembina 策略的成功執行以及我們對加強現有特許經營權、增加我們對輕質碳氫化合物和有彈性的終端使用市場的敞口以及獲得加拿大能源產品的全球市場定價的重點。

Highlights included growing our presence in resilient Northeast U.S. natural gas and NGL markets by fully consolidating ownership of Alliance and Aux Sable, furthering global market access for Canadian natural gas producers by reaching a positive FID on the Cedar LNG project, adding capital efficient, timely and certain capacity to accommodating growing Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin production through completion of the Phase 8 piece pipeline expansion, supporting growth focused Montney and Duvernay area customers with tailored solutions through 2 PGI transactions that included an expected $700 million gross to PGI funding for further infrastructure development that will be underpinned by long-term contracts and capitalizing on long-term stable demand for ethane from Alberta's growing petrochemical industry by entering a 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement with Dow. We also continued commercial successes across the business in 2024, including executing incremental contracts or renewing contracts for approximately 170,000 BOE per day of pipeline transportation primarily on Alliance and Peace Pipeline as well as 25,000 barrels per day on the Nipisi pipeline.

亮點包括：透過全面整合 Alliance 和 Aux Sable 的所有權，擴大我們在彈性的美國東北部天然氣和 NGL 市場的份額；透過就 Cedar LNG 項目達成積極的 FID，進一步提高加拿大天然氣生產商的全球市場准入；通過完成第 8 階段管道擴建，增加資本高效、及時和確定的產能以適應不斷增長的加拿大沉積？解決方案，其中包括預計向 PGI 提供 7 億美元的資金用於進一步的基礎設施開發，這些開發將由長期合約支撐；透過與陶氏達成每天 50,000 桶的乙烷供應協議，利用艾伯塔省不斷發展的石化產業對乙烷的長期穩定需求。2024 年，我們也繼續在業務上取得商業成功，包括執行增量合約或續約合同，主要在 Alliance 和 Peace 管道上進行每天約 170,000 桶油當量的管道運輸，以及在 Nipisi 管道上進行每天 25,000 桶油當量的管道運輸。

Over 6 million barrels of storage at the Edmonton terminals, approximately 200 million cubic feet per day of gas processing, primarily at Musreau Patterson Creek in K3 and additional fractionation services across the Redwater Complex. On the major project front, we continue to progress various in-flight construction projects expected to enter service in 2026, including the RFS IV expansion, the Wapiti plant expansion and the K3 cogeneration facility. We are also looking forward to the start of construction of Cedar LNG's floating vessel in mid-2025.

埃德蒙頓終端的儲存量超過 600 萬桶，每天處理約 2 億立方英尺的天然氣，主要位於 K3 的 Musreau Patterson Creek，以及整個 Redwater 綜合設施的額外分餾服務。在重大項目方面，我們繼續推動預計於 2026 年投入使用的各項在建項目，包括 RFS IV 擴建、Wapiti 工廠擴建和 K3 熱電聯產設施。我們也期待Cedar LNG浮式船舶於2025年中期開始建造。

Further, we are continuing to progress infrastructure solutions to meet Pembina's commitment under the 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement with Dow. Pembina is seeking to fulfill its commitment in the most capital-efficient manner possible and is evaluating a portfolio of opportunities, including the addition of a (inaudible) ethanizer tower at RFS III within the Redwater Complex. By leveraging its existing assets and capabilities, Pembina now expects the total capital investment required to be less than $300 million below the low end of the range previously communicated, resulting in improved capital efficiency as there is no change in the forecasted adjusted EBITDA contribution associated with the Dow supply agreement. And we are actively developing additional expansion opportunities to support growing demand for services on our conventional pipelines. These include the tailored to Gordondale project, which is currently in the phase of the Canada energy regulators process and expansion of the Peace Pipeline system to add up to approximately 200,000 barrels per day of capacity to its market delivery pipeline from Fox Creek to the Mayo and additional expansions to support volume growth in Northeast B.C.

此外，我們正在繼續推進基礎設施解決方案，以履行 Pembina 與陶氏化學達成的每日 50,000 桶乙烷供應協議中的承諾。Pembina 正在尋求以最具資本效率的方式履行其承諾，並正在評估一系列機會，包括在 Redwater 綜合設施內的 RFS III 增加一座（聽不清楚）乙烷塔。透過利用現有資產和能力，Pembina 預計目前所需的總資本投資將比先前公佈的範圍低端低 3 億美元，從而提高資本效率，因為與陶氏供應協議相關的預測調整後 EBITDA 貢獻沒有變化。我們正在積極開發額外的擴張機會，以支持我們常規管道服務日益增長的需求。這些項目包括針對 Gordondale 項目量身定制的項目，該項目目前正處於加拿大能源監管機構的審批階段，以及和平管道系統的擴建，以使其從 Fox Creek 到 Mayo 的市場輸送管道的運輸能力增加到每天約 20 萬桶，並進行其他擴建以支持不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的產量增長。

Finally, we were excited to announce yesterday 2 new business updates. The first was that Pembina has entered into agreements for a 50% interest in the Greenlight Electricity Center Limited partnership, which is developing a gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility to be located in Alberta's industrial heartland on land owned by Pembina adjacent to its Redwater Complex. The greenlight electricity center has been and will continue to be developed by Connecticore Asset Management. Greenlight is in active discussions with data center customers to commercially underpin the project and believe the lands within the Alberta industrial heartland are well suited given their proximity to transmission and utility infrastructure. The government of Alberta has set an ambitious target of attracting $100 billion in data center investments by 2030, encouraging developers to bring their own power. Pembina and Connecticor are committed to supporting this vision by delivering reliable and cost-effective power solutions at scale to data centers looking to locate in Alberta. Along with our direct investment in Greenlight, Pembina is well positioned to leverage its existing and future value chain to further support the project. The proximity of Alliance Pipeline offers potential accretive expansion opportunity to provide natural gas supply into Greenlight electricity center and the potential future development of Alberta Carbon Grid may provide a future emissions reduction solution.

最後，我們很高興地在昨天宣布了兩項新的業務更新。首先，Pembina 已達成協議，以取得 Greenlight Electricity Center Limited 合夥企業 50% 的股權，該合夥企業正在開發一個燃氣聯合循環發電設施，該設施位於艾伯塔省工業中心地帶，毗鄰 Pembina 所擁有的 Redwater 綜合設施的土地上。綠燈電力中心已經並將繼續由 Connecticore Asset Management 開發。Greenlight 正在與資料中心客戶積極討論該項目的商業基礎，並相信阿爾伯塔省工業中心地帶的土地非常適合該項目，因為它們靠近輸電和公用事業基礎設施。阿爾伯塔省政府制定了雄心勃勃的目標，到 2030 年吸引 1,000 億美元的資料中心投資，鼓勵開發商自備電力。Pembina 和 Connecticor 致力於透過向希望落腳阿爾伯塔省的資料中心提供大規模可靠且經濟高效的電力解決方案來支持這一願景。加上我們對 Greenlight 的直接投資，Pembina 可以利用其現有和未來的價值鏈進一步支持該項目。Alliance Pipeline 的鄰近提供了潛在的增值擴張機會，可以為 Greenlight 電力中心提供天然氣供應，而阿爾伯塔碳網格 (Alberta Carbon Grid) 的未來潛在發展可能提供未來的減排解決方案。

This is a great example of a project we had envisioned when we first announced the development of the Alberta Carbon Grid and the Pembina Low Carbon Complex. We are excited to be partnering with Connecticore to extend our value chain even further to provide power to a promising new Alberta-based data center industry. The second announcement was that Pembina has secured the sole extraction rights from the yellow head main mine, a 1 billion cubic feet per day natural gas delivery pipeline that is under construction by ATCO. Pembina is currently advancing engineering of an up to 500 million cubic feet per day straddle facility at which up to 200 -- sorry, 25,000 barrels per day of NGL mix would be extracted from the natural gas stream and transported to Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta for fractionation and sale. The Straddle facility would be located on Pembina's owned land and complement our already significant experience building and operating liquids extraction facilities that include approximately 1.8 billion cubic feet per day of extraction capacity to our Empress and younger facilities. The many successes of 2024 and followed by continued momentum into early 2025. Together, they reflect Pembina's leading position in the heart of the WCSB and the many opportunities available to enhance and expand our service alongside a growing Canadian energy industry.

這是我們在首次宣布開發阿爾伯塔碳電網和彭比納低碳綜合體時所設想的項目的一個很好的例子。我們很高興能與 Connecticore 合作，進一步延伸我們的價值鏈，為阿爾伯塔省前景光明的新興資料中心產業提供動力。第二項公告是，Pembina 已獲得黃頭主礦的獨家開採權，該礦的天然氣輸送管道日輸送量為 10 億立方英尺，由 ATCO 負責建造。彭比納 (Pembina) 目前正推進日產 5 億立方英尺跨接設施的工程建設，該設施將從天然氣流中提取多達 20 萬桶——對不起，是 25,000 桶/天的 NGL 混合物，並運輸至艾伯塔省的薩斯喀徹溫堡 (Fort Saskatchewan) 進行分餾和銷售。跨座式設施將位於 Pembina 擁有的土地上，並將對我們在建設和運營液體提取設施方面的豐富經驗進行補充，這些設施包括為我們的 Empress 和較新的設施提供每天約 18 億立方英尺的提取能力。2024 年取得了許多成功，並將持續保持這一勢頭直至 2025 年初。它們共同體現了 Pembina 在 WCSB 核心地區的領先地位，以及隨著加拿大能源產業的不斷發展，我們擁有的提升和擴展服務的許多機會。

I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full year.

現在我將把話題交給 Cam，讓他更詳細地討論第四季和全年的財務亮點。

Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembina reported record fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.254 billion. This represents a 21% increase over the same period in the prior year. In pipelines, factors impacting the quarter primarily included a higher contribution from Alliance due to increased ownership following the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition and higher demand for seasonal contracts, higher revenue related to the timing of capital recovery recognition, higher volumes on the Nipisi pipeline, higher contracted volumes on the Peace Pipeline system and contractual in placement adjustments on tolls, which were largely offset by earlier recognition of take-or-pay deferred revenue during the first half of 2024, and finally, lower net revenue on the Cochin pipeline, largely due to lower front holds and lower interruptible volumes during the period. In facilities, factors impacting the quarter included the inclusion of Aux Sable following the Aux Sable Alliance acquisition and a higher contribution from PGI due to higher revenue associated with oil batteries acquired in the fourth quarter of 2024 as well as higher volumes at certain PGI assets and the timing of capital recovery recognition.

謝謝，斯科特。斯科特指出，Pembina 報告第四季度調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 12.54 億美元。這比去年同期增長了 21%。管道方面，影響本季度的因素主要包括 Alliance 的貢獻增加，原因是收購 Alliance Aux Sable 後所有權增加以及季節性合約需求增加，與資本回收確認時間相關的收入增​​加，Nipisi 管道運量增加，Peace 管道系統合約運量增加以及通行費的合約安排調整，但這些在很大程度上被 2024 年收入預核保可中斷運量減少。在設施方面，影響本季的因素包括收購 Aux Sable Alliance 後納入 Aux Sable，以及 PGI 的貢獻增加，原因是 2024 年第四季收購的油電池相關收入增加，以及某些 PGI 資產的產量增加和資本回收確認的時間。

In marketing and new ventures, fourth quarter results reflect the net impact of higher net revenue from contracts with customers due to increased ownership interest in Aux Sable, higher NGL margins and lower realized gains on commodity-related derivatives. Finally, in the Corporate segment, fourth quarter results were higher than the prior period due to lower incentive costs. Earnings in the fourth quarter were $572 million. This represents an 18% decrease over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter was primarily due to the net impact of the reversal of the previous impairment related to the Nipisi pipeline, which impacted the fourth quarter of 2023. Unrealized gains recognized by PGI on interest rate derivative financial instruments compared to unrealized losses in 2023. Unrealized losses on commodity-related derivatives compared to unrealized gains in the prior period, unrealized gains on interest rate derivative financial instruments recognized by Cedar LNG and higher interest expense and higher income tax expense.

在行銷和新業務方面，第四季度的業績反映了由於 Aux Sable 的所有權權益增加、NGL 利潤率提高以及大宗商品相關衍生品的已實現收益降低而導致的客戶合約淨收入增加的淨影響。最後，在企業部門，由於激勵成本降低，第四季的業績高於上一季。第四季獲利為5.72億美元。比去年同期下降了 18%。除了影響調整後 EBITDA 的因素外，第四季度收益下降主要由於與 Nipisi 管道相關的先前減值的逆轉的淨影響，該影響影響了 2023 年第四季度。PGI 在利率衍生性金融工具上確認的未實現收益與 2023 年未實現損失相比。與上期未實現收益相比，商品相關衍生品的未實現損失、Cedar LNG確認的利率衍生金融工具的未實現收益以及更高的利息支出和更高的所得稅支出。

Total volumes were 3.67 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. This represents an increase of 6% over the same period in the prior year reflecting the net impact of the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition, the reactivation of the Nipisi pipeline, lower volumes on the Peace Pipeline system due to earlier recognition of take-or-pay deferred revenue in the first half of 2024, which more than offset the increase from higher contracted volumes and lower interruptible volumes on the Cochin pipeline.

第四季總產量為367萬桶/日。這比去年同期增長了 6%，反映了收購 Alliance Aux Sable、恢復 Nipisi 管道以及和平管道系統運量減少（由於 2024 年上半年提前確認了照付不議的遞延收入）的淨影響，這些影響超過了合約運量增加和科欽管道可中斷運量減少帶來的增長。

The fourth quarter contributed to full year results that included earnings of $1.874 billion, record adjusted EBITDA of $4.408 billion, which was 15% higher than in 2023. Cash flow from operating activities of $3.214 billion and record adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $3.265 billion. Thanks to strong results in 2024, Pembina generated meaningful free cash flow, which is allocated to strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders by increasing the common share dividend by 3.4%. At December 31, 2024, based on the trailing 12 months, the ratio of proportionally consolidated debt-to-adjusted EBITDA was 3.5x. Notably, this ratio reflects only 3/4 of contribution from the increased ownership in Alliance and Aux Sable, but all of the debt associated with that transaction. Our leverage remains at the low end of our targeted range reflects our strong balance sheet and supporting a strong BBB credit rating.

第四季為全年業績做出了貢獻，其中包括盈利 18.74 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 44.08 億美元，比 2023 年高出 15%。經營活動產生的現金流為 32.14 億美元，調整後營業活動現金流為 32.65 億美元。由於 2024 年的強勁業績，Pembina 產生了可觀的自由現金流，這些現金流用於加強資產負債表並透過將普通股股息提高 3.4% 來向股東返還資本。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，基於過去 12 個月，按比例合併的債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 3.5 倍。值得注意的是，該比率僅反映了 Alliance 和 Aux Sable 所有權增加的 3/4 貢獻，但反映了與該交易相關的所有債務。我們的槓桿率仍處於目標範圍的低端，反映了我們強勁的資產負債表並支持強勁的 BBB 信用評級。

I'll now turn things back to Scott.

現在我將話題轉回給史考特。

Thanks, Cam. In closing, I'll once again say how excited we are about the opportunities ahead. We believe Pembina is best positioned to benefit from the growth we are seeing and expect to continue to see in the WCSB.

謝謝，卡姆。最後，我要再次說一下我們對未來的機會感到多麼興奮。我們相信，Pembina 最有可能從 WCSB 的成長中獲益，並且預計將繼續受益。

Our extensive network of strategically placed assets provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodities, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and crude oil, and we are confident that our customer service offering provides unmatched optionality and flexibility that our customers value.

我們廣泛的策略性資產網絡為所有商品、天然氣、天然氣液體、凝析油和原油提供了全套的中游和運輸服務，我們相信，我們的客戶服務產品提供了客戶所重視的無與倫比的可選性和靈活性。

We have an abundance of opportunities ahead of us and a clear pathway to growth with approximately $4 billion of secured projects currently under construction and more than $4 billion of additional projects in various stages of development. We are looking forward to the year ahead and continuing to share our progress with you. Thank you for joining us this morning. And can you please open up the line for questions.

我們面前有充足的機會和明確的成長道路，目前正在建造的已確定項目價值約 40 億美元，另外還有價值超過 40 億美元的其他項目處於不同的開發階段。我們期待著新的一年，並繼續與您分享我們的進展。感謝您今天上午加入我們。您能否開通熱線來回答問題？

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指令）

AJ O'donnell, TPH.

AJ O'donnell，TPH。

Good morning everyone. I was just hoping to maybe start on the rights to the NGOs of the Yellowhead Mainline project, trying to think about what kind of commercial and growth opportunities that might create for you. Trying to think of this maybe along the lines of, additional frac capacity or export do capacity.

大家早安。我只是希望能夠開始向非政府組織索取 Yellowhead Mainline 計畫的權利，並思考這可能會為您創造什麼樣的商業和成長機會。試著思考一下，也許是沿著額外的壓裂能力或出口能力的思路。

A.J., this is Jaret here. Thanks for the question. So yes, like Scott mentioned in his opening remarks, we were awarded exclusive extraction rights on the Yellowhead mainline which will go into service kind of the latter half of 2027 based on public disclosure. We estimate we could build probably something in the neighborhood of maybe 500 million a day of extraction capacity, resulting in approximately 25,000 barrels of NGL extraction. So what we're doing right now, A.J., is we're just evaluating our 2 supply portfolios of C2, one which we've been fairly public with lately supporting Dow's net to 0 cracker, just evaluating how would this C2 fit into our overall portfolio. So that's ongoing, and we expect to have a little bit more information on that probably at the May call. But then obviously -- so that's the C2 component of the opportunity. And then with the C3+, obviously, we're actively building RFS IV, which is an incremental 55,000 barrels of C3+ extraction capacity fractionation. These barrels, we could just shift it across the river and put that into our existing frac capacity if we're not fully contracted. And that would be very complementary to our marketing NGL book today. We have a large portfolio of C3+.

A.J.，這是 Jaret。謝謝你的提問。是的，就像斯科特在開場白中提到的那樣，我們獲得了 Yellowhead 主線的獨家開採權，根據公開披露，該主線將於 2027 年下半年投入使用。我們估計，我們大概可以建立大約每天 5 億桶的開採能力，從而可以開採大約 25,000 桶的 NGL。所以 A.J.，我們現在正在做的是評估我們的 2 個 C2 供應組合，其中一個我們最近相當公開地支持陶氏的淨零裂解裝置，只是評估這個 C2 如何融入我們的整體組合。所以這是持續進行的，我們期望在 5 月的電話會議上獲得有關這方面的更多資訊。但顯然——這就是機會的 C2 組成部分。然後對於 C3+，顯然我們正在積極建造 RFS IV，這是一個增量為 55,000 桶的 C3+ 萃取能力分餾。如果我們沒有完全簽訂合同，我們可以將這些桶子運過河並將其放入我們現有的壓裂產能中。這對我們今天的行銷 NGL 書籍有很大的補充作用。我們擁有大量的 C3+ 產品組合。

It'd be very complementary to that. And Chris and his team, they would continue to find the best market for those products, either domestically into the United States and/or internationally through West Coast exports. Scott did mention through the acquisition of Aux Sable and closing that here this summer, Pembina does have a nice contiguous block of land right adjacent to (inaudible) Cracker and that will be the terminus essentially of where we would put our extraction facility. We have access to the (inaudible) pipeline. That's the Alberta Ethane Gathering system right there and then the Redwater fractionation complex, where we would most likely send our C3+ from this is just across the river, and we have existing pipelines that go back and forth between today. So we have operations in the area.

這將是對此的補充。克里斯和他的團隊將繼續為這些產品尋找最佳市場，要么在美國國內銷售，要么透過西海岸出口到國際市場。斯科特確實提到，透過收購 Aux Sable 並在今年夏天結束交易，彭比納 (Pembina) 確實擁有一塊毗鄰 (聽不清) Cracker 的優質連續土地，而這基本上將是我們放置提取設施的終點站。我們可以訪問（聽不清楚）管道。那是阿爾伯塔乙烷收集系統，然後是紅水分餾綜合設施，我們最有可能將我們的 C3+ 從這裡送出，就在河對岸，我們目前有往返於兩者之間的管道。所以我們在該地區有行動。

We have actually between Shanahan, Younger and Empress, we have well over 3 Bcf of this type of operation. So we're well versed in how to build, operate these types of assets. Also mentioned -- yes, sorry, A.J., I just going to also mention that the Alliance pipeline, Scott mentioned the opportunity there as it comes in close proximity to greenlight but also the Alliance pipeline goes right through this plot of land. So there'd be further evaluation down the road about potentially if we ever wanted to do straddling that pipeline down the road. So that's an option as well.

實際上，在 Shanahan、Younger 和 Empress 之間，我們已經擁有超過 30 億立方英尺的此類作業。因此，我們非常了解如何建立和運作這些類型的資產。還提到——是的，對不起，A.J.，我還要提到 Alliance 管道，Scott 提到了那裡的機會，因為它非常接近綠燈，而且 Alliance 管道正好穿過這塊土地。因此，如果我們將來想要跨越這條管道，那麼可能需要進一步的評估。這也是一種選擇。

Okay. I appreciate the detail. That kind of goes into my next question just on Greenlight and just trying to think about the potential size of the gas requirement for the facility and how that could translate to additional capacity on Alliance? And then also just kind of along those lines, if these projects kind of make it across the finish line and we see incremental capital invested into Alliance. Does that help mitigate at all the ongoing rate case situation with shippers? I mean I realize that there's a timing mismatch here, but is that being factored into your discussion with shippers currently?

好的。我很欣賞這個細節。這涉及到我關於 Greenlight 的下一個問題，我只是試圖思考該設施對天然氣的潛在需求規模，以及這如何轉化為 Alliance 的額外產能？然後按照這樣的思路，如果這些項目能夠順利完成，我們就會看到對 Alliance 的增量資本投入。這是否有助於緩解托運人目前面臨的費率糾紛？我的意思是，我意識到這裡存在時間上的不匹配，但這是否已被考慮到您目前與托運人的討論中？

A.J., it's Stu Taylor. With respect to the gas supply, it's one of the things that attracted us to this opportunity. But what we have right now is each phase will consume approximately 80 million cubic feet per day of gas. That will grow as you guys the phases get built out. Obviously, that's a significant number for gas egress for the province as well. I'll let Jaret talk more.

A.J.，我是 Stu Taylor。就天然氣供應而言，這是吸引我們抓住這一機會的因素之一。但現在的情況是，每個階段每天將消耗約 8,000 萬立方英尺的天然氣。隨著各階段的完成，它將會不斷發展。顯然，這對該省的天然氣出口來說也是一個相當大的數字。我會讓 Jaret 多講一些。

Yes. Just on the alliance. So where we're at with respect to that file and talking a little bit about expansion. So we've essentially met all the CER obligations here in the month of February. And then we have ongoing biweekly meetings with the large shipper group. It's about 40-plus individuals and just working expeditiously to get a negotiated settlement here in 2025 and get that in front of the regulator. What I will say with respect to the expansion, there's some common themes that we continue to hear, A.J. Number one, our shippers on Alliance very much value the service that Alliance provides they very much like the endpoint getting their gas into Chicago, but also the high reliability, availability and the cost structure of the pipeline. And part of the conversation has got to expansion opportunities. So there is high demand for expansion opportunities from the shipper group, and we're just evaluating that right now, would that be a short haul type expansion opportunity into the Fort Saskatchewan area as industrial demand increases or is that a long-haul type expansion where we go all the way down to the Chicago land area.

是的。僅就聯盟而言。那我們就來談談這個檔案以及它的擴充。因此，我們基本上在二月履行了所有的 CER 義務。然後我們每兩週與大型托運人集團舉行一次會議。大約有 40 多名個人正在迅速努力，爭取在 2025 年達成談判解決方案，並將其提交給監管機構。關於擴張，我想說的是，我們不斷聽到一些共同的主題，A.J.首先，Alliance 的托運人非常看重其提供的服務，他們非常喜歡將天然氣輸送到芝加哥的終點站，同時也喜歡管道的高可靠性、可用性和成本結構。談話內容部分涉及擴張機會。因此，托運人群體對擴張機會的需求很高，我們現在正在評估，隨著工業需求的增加，這是否是進入薩斯喀徹溫堡地區的短途擴張機會，還是一路延伸到芝加哥陸地地區的長途擴張機會。

If you recall, Alliance was originally set up to do what we call the B side compressors. So building out the Bite compressors where Alliance already owns that land today. that would be the long haul and then we could do a shorter haul person just into the Fort Saskatchewan area. So it is an active conversation we're having with the shippers.

如果你還記得的話，Alliance 最初成立的目的是生產所謂的 B 側壓縮機。因此，在 Alliance 目前已經擁有的土地上建造 Bite 壓縮機。那將是長途飛行，然後我們可以安排一趟短途飛行，前往薩斯喀徹溫堡地區。所以，我們正在與托運人進行積極的對話。

Appreciate all the detail.

感謝所有的細節。

Thank you. I'll turn it back.

謝謝。我會把它轉回去。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Related to the NGLs off of the Yellowhead mainline and the potential of 500 of NCF per day straddle facility. Can you talk about how -- what kind of capital requirement that could entail? And as it translates to potentially 25,000 barrels per day with a significant C2 component. How much of the 25,000 could be C22 supplement your 50,000 barrel per day supply agreement and then between that, the 300 and the $300 million deethanizer, how much of the 50 could those 2 pieces comprise? Would just love to get more details of the quantitative makeup of the 50,000 barrels per day as you see it?

與 Ye​​llowhead 主線的 NGL 以及每天 500 個 NCF 跨接設施的潛力相關。您能談談這可能需要什麼樣的資本要求嗎？這意味著每天可能有 25,000 桶石油，其中含有大量 C2 成分。這 25,000 桶中有多少 C22 可以補充你們每天 50,000 桶的供應協議，那麼在這 300 桶和價值 3 億美元的脫乙烷塔之間，這兩部分可以佔 50 桶中的多少？您是否想了解更多關於每天 50,000 桶石油的數量構成的細節？

Okay. Yes, I'm going to try to unpack those in order. So I think the first question was with respect to cost. An asset of this size, we believe, would be in that neighborhood of of $400 million to $500 million. Now this is fairly preliminary. We would -- we're obviously going to be doing a significant amount more work with respect to the engineering and as we progress through our gating system here at Pembina, but that's the rough order of magnitude. With respect to the composition of that 25,000, you would expect to be roughly, call it, 50% of that would be ethane. The remainder would be your C3+ component. And then how does it fit into our overall portfolio. So that's what we're talking about right now is we have our existing supply agreements. There's also demand for future expansions with -- in Alberta. Dow has been very public about Phase III, et cetera. So we're just evaluating right now, do we put these barrels into part of our existing supply portfolio? Or do we make this part of the incremental? You mentioned RFS 3D ethanizer. We've been fairly public about that. There is an opportunity there to -- we have existing barrels in our portfolio that we can add to the incremental demand. There is new opportunities such as the RFS 3D and then there's these barrels. So it's a little bit too early and premature to be talking about the actual details, but expect to provide a lot more color at our May conference call.

好的。是的，我將嘗試按順序解開它們。所以我認為第一個問題是關於成本的。我們認為，這種規模的資產價值將在 4 億至 5 億美元左右。目前這還只是初步階段。顯然，我們會在工程方面做大量的工作，隨著我們在彭比納的門控系統的不斷完善，但這只是粗略的數量級。就這 25,000 種物質的成分而言，你可以預期其中大約 50% 是乙烷。其餘部分將是您的 C3+ 組件。那麼它如何融入我們的整體投資組合。所以我們現在談論的是我們的現有供應協議。阿爾伯塔省未來也存在擴張的需求。陶氏一直非常公開地談論第三階段等事宜。所以我們現在正在評估，是否將這些桶子放入我們現有的供應組合中？或者我們將這部分作為增量嗎？您提到了 RFS 3D 乙烷塔。我們已經相當公開地談論了這一點。這是一個機會—我們的投資組合中現有的石油可以增加增量需求。有新的機遇，例如 RFS 3D，然後還有這些桶子。因此，現在談論實際細節還為時過早，但我們預計將在 5 月的電話會議上提供更多詳細資訊。

Understood. And maybe turning to the LNG front, given the geopolitical developments across Europe, Russia and Ukraine as well as the policy movements in the U.S., can you talk about your progress to date in contracting the capacity you have remaining on Cedar?

明白了。也許轉向液化天然氣方面，考慮到歐洲、俄羅斯和烏克蘭的地緣政治發展以及美國的政策動向，您能談談迄今為止您在承包 Cedar 剩餘產能方面取得的進展嗎？

It's Stu again. We've been working hard since late 2024 working with potential acquirers of this capacity, we're very pleased with the response that we've had. We have a broad range of customers who are looking for LNG service, including both Canadian producers as well as NOC and IOC counterparts looking to participate.

又是斯圖。自 2024 年底以來，我們一直在努力與具有該資格的潛在收購者合作，我們對所得到的回應感到非常滿意。我們擁有廣泛的客戶群體，他們正在尋找液化天然氣服務，其中包括加拿大生產商以及希望參與的國家石油公司（NOC）和國際石油公司（IOC）的同行。

We've had term sheets out and term sheets returned well in excess of the capacity that we have. And so we're working through that process. We will soon be looking to shortlist and begin more detailed negotiations with these counterparts, and we're very excited about where we sit at this point in time.

我們已經制定了條款清單，並且返回的條款清單遠遠超出了我們現有的能力。所以我們正在進行這個過程。我們很快就會列出最終名單，並與這些對手方展開更詳細的談判，我們對目前的狀況感到非常興奮。

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo

富國銀行的 Praneeth Satish

Maybe I'll just start with two questions here on the Greenlight project. So first is just trying to understand how much is your share of CapEx if we just kind of assume $2,000 per kilowatt than your share could be as high as $1.8 billion. And I know it's going to happen in phases, but I just want to understand if that's in the range of how you see your investment into the project and the time frame for spending?

也許我想先問兩個有關 Greenlight 專案的問題。因此，首先只是想了解您的資本支出份額是多少，如果我們假設每千瓦 2,000 美元，那麼您的份額可能高達 18 億美元。我知道這將分階段進行，但我只是想了解這是否在您對該專案的投資範圍和支出時間範圍內？

Yes. So we're essentially 50% of the project at this point in time, early days, but we're looking at essentially $1.5 billion per phase of 450 megawatts, so up to 1,800 megawatts. So our share would be, again, 50% on a go-forward basis. Our plan -- we will be a phased development. There could be opportunity as we stage this out, we could accelerate some of the phases and combine them. But at this point in time, it's a phased development of the 4 phases with construction. FID beginning, we're targeting some time in '26 and then construction through to 2030 -- 2029, 2030.

是的。所以，目前我們基本上完成了專案的 50%，還處於早期階段，但我們預計每期 450 兆瓦的發電量將達到 15 億美元，最高可達 1,800 兆瓦。因此，從長遠來看，我們的份額將再次達到 50%。我們的計劃－我們將分階段發展。當我們逐步實施這項計劃時，可能會有機會，我們可以加速某些階段並將它們結合起來。但目前，該項目分為四個階段進行建設。我們的目標是在 26 年某個時候開始 FID，然後進行建設，一直到 2030 年、2029 年、2030 年。

And maybe Praneeth, I'll just chime in. It's Cam here. And just as a reminder to all the listeners, where we stand today, following the Alliance and Aux Sable acquisition, our run rate of free cash flow after dividends available for investment is in the range of about $1.25 billion to about $1.5 billion per year. We've obviously said that through 2025 and 2026, as we're closing out some of the in-flight projects and the heaviest spend period on SEDAR. We are running at probably a little above -- a little excess free cash flow but obviously closer to it. And then 2027 and beyond, we begin generating material free cash flow again available for all that investment. So that obviously lines up really well with the opportunities that we're talking about here.

或許還有 Praneeth，我也會加入討論。我是 Cam。需要提醒所有聽眾的是，在收購 Alliance 和 Aux Sable 之後，我們目前的狀況是，扣除可供投資的股息後，我們的自由現金流運行率在每年約 12.5 億美元至 15 億美元之間。我們顯然已經說過，到 2025 年和 2026 年，我們將完成一些正在進行的項目，並且是 SEDAR 上支出最多的時期。我們的自由現金流可能略高於這個數字——有一點過剩，但顯然更接近這個數字。然後到 2027 年及以後，我們將開始再次產生可用於所有投資的實質自由現金流。所以這顯然與我們在此談論的機會非常吻合。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just on the project itself, Greenlight. Can you help us understand what the return profile looks like relative to your traditional midstream investments. I mean this is a bit of a step out in terms of taking a piece of the power generation part. So would you expect higher returns than your traditional hurdle rates? And then can you say whether the economics would be secured by long-term contracts? Or would you be taking on any merchant exposure?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後可能只是關於項目本身，Greenlight。您能否幫助我們了解相對於傳統中游投資的回報狀況？我的意思是，從分得發電部分的角度來看，這有點向前邁進了一步。那麼您是否期望獲得比傳統最低收益率更高的回報？那麼您能否說一下長期合約是否能夠保證經濟效益？或者您會承擔任何商家風險嗎？

Praneeth, let me start with -- I think it was your second question there. And I think one of the things that we really want to make sure is very clear is that, obviously, the power generation angle of this opportunity is a great project in its own right, but what really makes us excited about it as it relates to Pembina's value chain, is the integration potential. So the opportunity -- obviously, we have a significant gas business today through our gas processing business through Alliance, Obviously, we have an aspiring carbon sequestration solution. So the integration of the opportunity with those projects is what really got us excited about it. To your specific questions, we would see sort of base returns consistent with the midstream infrastructure return at this point, probably a little early to start throwing out exact multiples, but I would say it's within that range. And lastly, I think it is, of course, our intention to have a long-term contract underpinning this project. And obviously, that's -- those negotiations are ongoing.

Praneeth，首先我想這是你的第二個問題。我認為我們真正想要確保非常清楚的一件事是，顯然，這個機會的發電角度本身就是一個偉大的項目，但真正讓我們興奮的是它與 Pembina 的價值鏈相關的整合潛力。因此，機會——顯然，我們今天透過 Alliance 的天然氣加工業務擁有重要的天然氣業務，顯然，我們擁有有抱負的碳封存解決方案。因此，將這個機會與這些項目結合起來才是真正讓我們興奮的事情。對於您的具體問題，我們會看到基礎回報與中游基礎設施回報一致，現在開始拋出確切的倍數可能有點早，但我想它在這個範圍內。最後，我認為我們當然希望為該專案簽訂長期合約。顯然，這些談判仍在進行中。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob Hope from Scotiabank

加拿大豐業銀行的 Rob Hope

Maybe going back to Alliance, can you add some color on kind of what the initial consultations have been with shippers as well as is the expectation that the existing contracts could get reopened? Or is this really just focused on IT and the spot tools?

也許回到聯盟，您能否介紹一下與托運人的初步磋商情況，以及現有合約能否重新開放的預期？或者這實際上只是專注於 IT 和現場工具？

Yes, Rob, thanks. It's Jaret here. So I would categorize the group into just a few buckets, right? So I mentioned there's obviously 40-plus folks in the room. You have long-term shippers, you have people who play in the seasonal strip in the IT component and then some really large long-term shippers, and then you have some of our smaller shippers on the pipeline.

是的，羅布，謝謝。我是賈瑞特 (Jaret)。所以我會把這些人分成幾類，對嗎？所以我提到房間裡顯然有 40 多人。您有長期托運人，有在 IT 組件季節性地帶工作的人，還有一些真正大型的長期托運人，然後還有一些管道上的小型托運人。

So those are kind of the three groups that we're working with right now. I can't get into too much detail with respect to what everyone wants, but we are trying to hone into a mutual agreement that meets the needs of all 40-plus individuals. And I can say it's going very well, and the conversations have been extremely respectful and progressive as we continue to work.

這就是我們目前正在合作的三個團體。我無法過度詳細說明每個人的需求，但我們正在努力達成一項滿足所有 40 多名個人需求的共同協議。我可以說一切進展順利，隨著我們繼續開展工作，對話也變得非常尊重和進步。

With respect to the contracts, that is actually what some of the conversations are around depending on which route we go, there could be different outcomes. And obviously, people that have a lot of capacity on the pipeline when I keep that capacity because obviously, it supports your condensate development plans and those types of things long term. And there's obviously people who maybe don't have a lot of capacity on the asset who would love to have more capacity on the asset.

關於合同，這實際上是一些討論的重點，根據我們採取的路線不同，可能會有不同的結果。顯然，當我保持這些產能時，人們在管道上擁有很大的產能，因為很明顯，它可以長期支持你的凝析油開發計劃和諸如此類的事情。顯然，有些人可能沒有太多的資產容量，但他們希望擁有更多的資產容量。

So that's something that we're working through. But at the end of the day, the takeaway is, it is a little bit early. I think in May, we'll be able to give a little bit more color, demand is high for the asset. And we just got to kind of grind through it here over the next couple of weeks. Anything else Cam, Scott, do you want to add on that?

所以這是我們正在努力解決的事情。但最終，我們要意識到的是，現在說這件事還太早。我認為在五月我們將能夠給出更多的信息，因為該資產的需求很高。我們只需要在接下來的幾週內努力解決這個問題。Cam、Scott，還有什麼要補充嗎？

Right. Appreciate that. And then maybe just going back to the ethane capital intensity commentary about being below the $300 million range by maintaining the EBITDA profile there. Can you maybe add a little bit more color on kind of where you're seeing the savings or kind of where you're leading to in terms of the optionality and the end solution.

正確的。非常感謝。然後也許只是回到乙烷資本強度的評論，即透過維持那裡的 EBITDA 狀況，使資本強度低於 3 億美元。您能否更詳細地說明您所看到的節省，或者您在可選性和最終解決方案方面所取得的成果。

It's not so much savings, Rob. It's just really -- like we had a portfolio of projects that could add to the totality of our supply book. And it's really -- we just got really diligent in just going through those and evaluating each one on a stand-alone basis. Where did we have extra capacity across our enterprise, where we could maximize the ethane recoveries through existing assets. So that plays a portfolio -- or sorry, a portion of the portfolio. So really just getting militant and grinding it down. And ultimately, it's kind of -- we've been signaling it's kind of honing into that Redwater 3 de-ethanizer tower, which is the most capital efficient. Redwater 3 was built with a lot of the bells and whistles to accommodate that tower. So it was really just doing the work and working through our portfolio of opportunities and getting the maximum out of our existing steel that we have in the ground.

這並不是什麼節省，羅布。這真的就像我們有一個項目組合，可以添加到我們的供應簿總量中。而且確實——我們只是非常勤奮地研究這些，並對每一個進行獨立評估。我們的企業中哪些地方擁有多餘的產能，我們可以透過現有資產最大程度地提高乙烷回收率。因此，這起到了投資組合的作用——或者抱歉，只是投資組合的一部分。所以實際上只是變得好戰並將其粉碎。最終，我們一直在暗示，它正在逐漸完善 Redwater 3 脫乙烷塔，這是資本效率最高的。紅水 3 號建造時配備了許多設施來適應這座塔。因此，這實際上只是開展工作並利用我們的機會組合並最大限度地利用我們現有的地下鋼材。

So through a combination of that, the team did a tremendous job of coming up with being at that low end of that capital range. And now Yellowhead, obviously, now we have to just take a step back and evaluate the entire portfolio with Yellowhead, obviously, comes a lot more C3+. So just working that into the mix. But like I said earlier, there is incremental demand for incremental phases of polymer development here in Alberta.

因此，透過這些因素的結合，該團隊做出了巨大努力，將資本降至最低範圍。現在，顯然，我們必須退後一步，評估 Yellowhead 的整個投資組合，顯然，它包含更多的 C3+。因此，只需將其混合在一起即可。但就像我之前說的，阿爾伯塔省對聚合物開發的增量階段的需求不斷增加。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen

TD Cowen 的 Aaron MacNeil

Hey, morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. How would you characterize the greenlight projects gas turbine slot reservations and other long lead time items and more generally, how far along is the sort of feed process?

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。您如何描述綠燈專案燃氣渦輪槽位預訂和其他長交付週期專案？更普遍地說，進料過程進行得如何？

It's Stu again. So we've been working with the Connecticor development team for over 1.5 years. They are at the beginning of -- our excitement with them is their expertise that they have, and they just completed the Cascade power plant in the Edson area as well as they progress the ASO Q position. And again, that's what excites a lot of our data center customers or the potential is the speed to market. We are going to be in that turbine to as we go out. We have not placed those orders at this point in time. But again, I mentioned FID is expected in 2026 and or in (inaudible) date in the 2030 time frame. We're happy where we are with the queue. We're happy with the progress. We're engineering work to take place in 2025 and reaching that FID decision in 2026.

又是斯圖。我們與 Connecticor 開發團隊合作了超過 1.5 年。他們才剛起步——我們對他們的專業知識感到興奮，他們剛剛完成了埃德森地區的卡斯卡特發電廠，並且正在推進 ASO Q 職位。再一次，這正是令我們的許多資料中心客戶興奮的因素，或者說其潛力在於產品上市的速度。我們出去的時候就會進入那個渦輪機。目前我們還沒有下這些訂單。但我再次提到，FID 預計在 2026 年或（聽不清楚）2030 年的時間範圍內。我們對目前的隊列很滿意。我們對進展很滿意。我們的工程將於 2025 年開始，並於 2026 年做出 FID 決定。

Got you. And then maybe just to return to A.J.'s question on increased NGL volumes flowing through the system. Can you comment specifically about that stock capacity he asked about and helping your customers just export those incremental volumes more generally.

明白了。然後也許只是回到 A.J. 關於系統中流動的 NGL 量增加的問題。您能否具體評論一下他所詢問的庫存容量，以及如何更普遍地幫助您的客戶出口這些增量量。

Aaron, it's Chris Sherman. We're certainly paying a lot of attention to what volume growth in general looks like in the basin, and that's a piece of it. And undoubtedly continue to see the value of West Coast export. I think we've talked about some of the efficiencies we're driving at our own facility. We've talked about some of the other projects that are on the go on the West Coast. And undoubtedly, each incremental barrel definitely supports those export positions. So we're keeping an eye on them. We don't have anything specific linked to or related to Yellowhead per se. But obviously, we're bullish West Coast to export and like what we have there today and see that growth being supportive of the projects that are underway.

亞倫，我是克里斯‧謝爾曼。我們確實非常關注盆地的整體產量成長情況，這只是其中的一部分。並且毫無疑問將繼續看到西海岸出口的價值。我想我們已經討論過我們在自己的工廠中推動的一些效率。我們討論了西海岸正在進行的一些其他項目。毫無疑問，每增加一桶石油肯定都會支撐這些出口地位。因此我們一直關注著他們。我們沒有任何與 Yellowhead 本身相關或相關的具體內容。但顯然，我們看好西海岸的出口，也喜歡那裡現在的狀況，並看到這種增長將支持正在進行的項目。

It should be noted that these C3+ barrels would be -- like they would be proprietary Pembina barrels. They wouldn't be the barrels of the shippers on the Yellowhead pipeline.

值得注意的是，這些 C3+ 桶將會像專有的 Pembina 桶一樣。它們不會是 Yellowhead 輸油管上托運人的桶子。

Gotcha.

明白了。

Appreciate taking my questions. I'll turn it over.

感謝您回答我的問題。我把它翻過來。

Manav Gupta from UBS

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta

I wanted to go to Slide 15, executing site projects. Number of projects coming on in the first half of 2026, can you give us like some kind of progress percentage? How was the completion at this point and general progress that you are making to getting these 3 projects all in first half of 2026.

我想轉到第 15 張投影片，執行現場專案。2026 年上半年有多少個專案即將開工，您能為我們提供一些進度百分比嗎？目前這 3 個項目的完成情況如何？在 2026 年上半年完成這 3 個計畫的整體進度如何？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So project execution, I'll speak to probably just the 3 largest ones we have on the go here. So the K3 Cochin, the Wapiti expansion -- Wapiti Gas Plant expansion of PGI, both those projects are PGI projects that Pembina is executing and then our RFS IV frac expansion and rail expansion. So all 3 of those projects are going extremely well and no concerns with respect to timing and/or execution. We've got through each one of those projects through some pretty material milestones. Equipment is showing up, active boots on the ground in all 3 of those locations. So no supply chain concerns. And I would like to just have a bit of a shout-out with respect to throughout the last couple of months, there's been some pretty extreme weather here in Alberta.

是的。謝謝你的提問。關於專案執行，我大概只會談論我們正在進行的 3 個最大的專案。因此，K3 Cochin、Wapiti 擴建——PGI 的 Wapiti 天然氣廠擴建，這兩個項目都是 Pembina 正在執行的 PGI 項目，然後是我們的 RFS IV 壓裂擴建和鐵路擴建。因此，這 3 個項目都進展非常順利，在時間安排和/或執行方面沒有任何問題。我們在每一個專案中都取得了一些相當重要的里程碑。設備正在出現，在這 3 個地點都有活躍的地面部隊。因此無需擔心供應鏈。我想稍微提醒一下，過去幾個月來，阿爾伯塔省的天氣一直非常極端。

The safety execution throughout the last couple of months and previous to that has been excellent. It's been world-class in Pembina's opinion. And the cost structure continues to come in as expected. So like I said, we're getting through some pretty key milestones here and the equipment is getting delivered to site, and it's really impressive to see these new assets coming out of the ground.

過去幾個月以及之前的安全執行情況都非常出色。彭比納認為，這是世界級的。成本結構繼續按照預期發展。所以就像我說的，我們在這裡正在經歷一些非常關鍵的里程碑，設備正在運送到現場，看到這些新資產的出現確實令人印象深刻。

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, you obviously talked to a lot of producers. What's your internal outlook for the risk Canadian sedimentary base and volume growth, whether it's gas or liquids or oil like how should we think about the growth over the next two or three years based on your internal estimates?

完美的。我的後續問題是，你顯然與許多製片人進行了交談。您對加拿大沉積基礎和產量成長的風險（無論是天然氣、液體還是石油）的內部預測是什麼？根據您的內部估計，我們應該如何看待未來兩三年的成長？

Yes. It's Scott here. When we use a lot of our own internal data and third-party data and generally speaking, they're lining up. When we look at third-party data, we're generally seeing growth in that kind of mid-single-digit area. And I would say that that's relatively consistent with our own internal forecast. I would say the only hesitation I have right now is just given all the volatility in the market and the uncertainty that puts a little bit of a cloud over it. But absent that, that mid-single digit is something that we continue to forecast.

是的。我是史考特。當我們使用大量自己的內部數據和第三方數據時，一般來說，它們是排隊的。當我們查看第三方數據時，我們通常會看到中等個位數的成長。我想說這與我們自己的內部預測相對一致。我想說，我現在唯一的猶豫就是考慮到市場的波動性和為市場蒙上一層陰影的不確定性。但除此之外，我們仍會繼續預測中位數個位數。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

I'd maybe just add to that, that although the average is mid-single digits, some of Pembina's biggest shippers. If you go into their detailed public information, some of them are growing at higher than that. And it should be noted that some of our customers are drilling into take-or-pay contracts. Some of them would be over. So although the physical volumes will continue to grow, we believe that we're in a pretty good position to continue to meet their growth demand.

我可能只想補充一點，儘管平均值是個位數的中間值，但它們是 Pembina 的一些最大托運人。如果你查看他們的詳細公開信息，你會發現其中一些公司的成長率甚至高於這個數字。值得注意的是，我們的一些客戶正在簽訂照付不議合約。有些可能已經結束了。因此，儘管實物量將繼續增長，但我們相信我們完全有能力繼續滿足他們的成長需求。

Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets.

來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Maurice Choy。

Just wanted to come back to the discussion about returns on Greenlight, you mentioned that the base returns will be consistent with your midstream assets. But I suppose if you look at your existing value chain, there can be a relatively wide range depending on your exposure to volumes and prices, for example. So if I think about this, are the returns more close to, say, more traditional 7x to build multiples that you have? Or are we talking about something goes to 9 or 10x for a long-term contracted take-or-pay infrastructure?

我只是想回到關於 Greenlight 回報的討論，您提到基本回報將與您的中游資產保持一致。但我想，如果你看看你現有的價值鏈，你會發現範圍可能會相對較廣，這取決於你對數量和價格的曝險。因此，如果我考慮這一點，回報是否更接近更傳統的 7 倍來建立倍數？或者我們談論的是關於長期合約的照付不議基礎設施的 9 倍或 10 倍價格？

Yes, Maurice, I mean I think negotiations are ongoing. So I'm a little reticent to start to point to a specific data point. I would just say, obviously, I mean, you've obviously painted the range of our return profile historically, and we would characterize it within that range. But given the stage of negotiations, I'm reluctant to sort of specifically quantify it at this stage.

是的，莫里斯，我的意思是我認為談判正在進行中。因此我有點不願意開始指出特定的數據點。我只想說，顯然，我的意思是，你顯然已經從歷史角度描繪出了我們的回報範圍，我們會在該範圍內進行描述。但考慮到談判目前所處的階段，我還不願意在現階段對此進行具體的量化。

Maybe just holistically, if you took a step back away from Green (inaudible) and look at an opportunity like this, Yellowhead and everything. Where do you sense your the appetite for purchase returns? And has anything changed in the last 6 to 12 months in terms of how you view your next opportunity and how you view your return criteria?

也許只是從整體上看，如果你退一步遠離綠色（聽不清楚）並看看這樣的機會，黃頭和一切。您可以在哪裡感受到您對購買回報的興趣？在過去的 6 到 12 個月中，您對下一次機會的看法以及對回報標準的看法有什麼變化嗎？

I think what we look at is obviously a full-scale value chain across the business. and obviously, opportunities across that value chain, which continue to come. I think part of it is, obviously, the commercial angle. Part of it is execution and control your costs and protecting that. I think Jaret exemplified what we think is one of our advantages in that.

我認為我們所關注的顯然是整個業務的全方位價值鏈。顯然，整個價值鏈中的機會仍在不斷湧現。我認為其中一部分顯然是出於商業角度。其中一部分是執行和控製成本並保護它。我認為 Jaret 體現了我們認為的我們的優勢之一。

Our track record on capital execution, I think, has been incredibly strong historically. And so for us, that gives us a lot of confidence to be able to sort of -- to be able to put forward a compelling proposition to the customers. In terms of the commerce, obviously, that's market facing. I think we have a history of trying to find creative solutions.

我認為，從歷史上看，我們在資本執行方面的業績一直非常強勁。因此對我們來說，這給了我們很大的信心，能夠向客戶提出令人信服的建議。從商業角度來說，顯然這是面向市場的。我認為我們一直都在努力尋找創造性的解決方案。

I think that shows up through a couple of the transactions that we did with PGI and Wet over the course of this year. I think it's shown up historically in our contracting and our pipelines business. And so we continue to look for opportunities to be creative. Ultimately, the market drives what returns are. But I think we control what we can control.

我認為這體現在我們今年與 PGI 和 Wet 進行的幾筆交易中。我認為這在我們的承包和管道業務歷史上已經有所體現。因此，我們繼續尋找發揮創意的機會。最終，市場決定回報。但我認為我們可以控制我們能夠控制的事情。

And when you look at sort of our capabilities in building assets specifically, relative to competition, that is 1 area where we differentiate ourselves and where we believe we have a competitive advantage.

當你具體看看我們在資產建立方面的能力時，相對於競爭對手，這是我們與眾不同的一個領域，也是我們認為我們具有競爭優勢的領域。

And maybe just finishing off with more holistic strategy question about using green light as an example here. Obviously, you mentioned that GreenLight benefits from being close in proximity to Alliance and maybe what you may want to do. Does that mean that you can probably scope down future power opportunity to once they're close to infrastructure versus being a more big IPP player within the province?

也許只是以關於使用綠燈作為例子來結束更全面的戰略問題。顯然，您提到 GreenLight 受益於與 Alliance 的緊密聯繫，也許這也是您想做的事情。這是否意味著您可以將未來的電力機會範圍縮小到接近基礎設施之後，而不是成為省內更大的 IPP 參與者？

10%. This is all about the data center play, the value chain extension cited behind the fence on our lands. You're not going to see us do an IPP and less bridge or something like that. This is very focused and targeted and on strategy.

10%。這一切都與資料中心的運作有關，這是我們土地圍籬後面的價值鏈延伸。你不會看到我們做 IPP 和更少的橋樑或類似的東西。這是非常集中、有針對性和有策略的。

I said, thanks for that.

我說，謝謝你。

Spiro Dounis from Citi

花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis

Thanks operator. Morning everybody. I want to touch first on tariffs. You guys pointed out in the release, no imminent impact to operations. But does seem to have reinvigorated a broader discussion in Canada just around energy infrastructure and know what best suits your needs. So curious if that's reshaping how you're thinking about projects that you're pursuing longer term. And if you're already maybe seeing that sort of shift where projects are coming in that maybe you weren't on the radar a few months ago?

謝謝接線生。大家早安。我想先談談關稅問題。你們在新聞稿中指出，這對營運沒有直接影響。但似乎確實重新激發了加拿大關於能源基礎設施的更廣泛的討論，並了解什麼最適合您的需求。我很好奇這是否會改變您對長期追求的項目的看法。您是否已經看到了這種轉變，有些專案正在湧入，而幾個月前您可能還沒有註意到？

Yes, it's Scott here. As we pointed out and as you said in the press release, no immediate financial impact from the tariffs. From our perspective, we're hearing all the right things and now we need to start to see all the right things.

是的，我是史考特。正如我們所指出的以及您在新聞稿中所說的那樣，關稅不會產生直接的財務影響。從我們的角度來看，我們聽到的都是正確的事情，現在我們需要開始看到所有正確的事情。

And so from our perspective, we do see a sentiment change in terms of politicians in terms of the general public, which we think is generally positive for the industry. We've been progressing lots of projects in the background, and we will continue to progress those projects.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們確實看到政界人士和普通公眾的情緒發生了變化，我們認為這對行業來說總體上是積極的。我們已經在幕後推進了許多項目，並且我們將繼續推進這些項目。

And hopefully, with what's happening, it will be obvious to the country that these projects need to get built. And so we think that there's definitely positive tailwinds. You're not going to see anything in the next day or two, obviously, but we continue to to see tailwinds in terms of potentially deregulation, speedier project approvals, which should benefit the industry long term.

希望隨著現狀的發生，國家能夠意識到這些項目的建設必要性。因此我們認為肯定存在著積極的順風。顯然，你不會在接下來的一兩天內看到任何變化，但我們繼續看到潛在的放鬆管制、加快專案審批等方面的順風，這將有利於該行業的長期發展。

Got it. That's helpful color, Scott. Second question, just a quick cleanup one related to CapEx. The December guidance pointed to potential for CapEx maybe increase as much as $200 million if more projects got sanctioned. Obviously, you sort of announced a few last night today. So just curious kind of where we sit with that $200 million number

知道了。那是有用的顏色，斯科特。第二個問題，只是資本支出相關的快速清理問題。12 月的指導意見指出，如果有更多項目獲得批准，資本支出潛力可能會增加多達 2 億美元。顯然，你昨晚已經宣布了一些。我很好奇，2 億美元這個數字對我們來說意味著什麼

Sir, it's Cam here. I think some of them have progressed along the way. I'd say maybe about half of that has progressed long. I mean one of the big pieces there was the de-ethanizer at RFS. We're continuing to move through gates internally on that as well as some of the Northeast BC spending, which continues to move through gates. So I would say that at this point, we're not all the way towards that upper end. We're marching through the range. And if you want to take a point, probably about halfway.

先生，我是 Cam。我認為他們中的一些人已經取得了進步。我想說大概有一半已經取得了進展。我的意思是，那裡最大的部件之一是 RFS 的脫乙烷塔。我們正在繼續內部推進這一進程，以及不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的部分支出，這些支出也繼續透過門禁進行。因此我想說，目前我們還沒有完全達到那個上限。我們正在穿越山脈。如果你想提出一點，大概就是一半。

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks for that. I'll leave it there.

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。我就把它留在那裡。

Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

This is Elan Jason on for Jeremy. Maybe just on the 2025 guide, I mean, saw a pretty strong print in 4Q, and we recognized some seasonality in the business, but how should we think about the 4.2 to 4.5 range incorporating some conservatism? Is that tied to any cushion for Alliance? Or can you just help frame that up a bit?

這是 Elan Jason 為 Jeremy 主持的節目。也許僅在 2025 年指南上，我的意思是，看到了第四季度相當強勁的業績，並且我們認識到業務中存在一些季節性，但我們應該如何考慮融入一些保守主義的 4.2 到 4.5 範圍？這與聯盟的緩衝有關嗎？或是您能幫忙稍微構思一下嗎？

Yes. So I think the way we would characterize the range is a couple of things. Obviously, there is seasonality in our business. And I think it comes from about 3 different places. Obviously, the first is obviously the inherent seasonality in the marketing business, which is weighted to Q1 and Q4. I think that's generally well understood. With the advent of more West Coast egress for the liquids business in the last sort of 2 to 3 years, I mean, obviously, that has moderated some, but even you still see that in a large extent on the pricing side. And I think you can see that this year as well. The second thing would be obviously the repair and integrity work portfolio that (inaudible) in our business. And so often, that results in much of that occurring in the third quarter. Some of our work occurs in the first and the fourth quarter because of winter access only. But there is some seasonality in that just based on obviously getting through spring, getting to work and planning our work plan. And then the last piece would obviously be the Alliance interruptible profile. So as we've seen in past years and continue to be our outlook this year is obviously winter seasons tend to see higher interruptible demand, consequently higher demand for service and that would lead to a relatively softer Q2 and Q3 for that asset relative to Q1 and Q4. In some cases, the seasonality has been in some years upwards of 15%, like from a Q1 to Q2 type of sequential numbers. So I think we think about that and we see that.

是的。所以我認為我們描述範圍的方式有幾種。顯然，我們的業務具有季節性。我認為它來自大約 3 個不同的地方。顯然，第一個顯然是行銷業務固有的季節性，其權重集中在Q1和Q4。我認為這基本上是很好理解的。隨著過去 2 到 3 年裡液體燃料業務從西海岸出口的增多，顯然這種情況已經有所緩和，但即使在定價方面，你仍然會看到這種情況在很大程度上存在。我想你今年也能看到這一點。第二件事顯然是我們業務中的修復和完整性工作組合（聽不清楚）。通常，這種情況大部分發生在第三季。由於僅限冬季進入，因此我們的部分工作在第一季和第四季度進行。但顯然，這其中存在一些季節性，只是基於度過春季、開始工作和製定工作計劃。最後一部分顯然是聯盟的可中斷概況。因此，正如我們在過去幾年所看到的那樣，而今年我們的展望仍然是，冬季往往會出現更高的可中斷需求，從而導致對服務的需求更高，這將導致該資產的第二季度和第三季度相對於第一季度和第四季度相對疲軟。在某些情況下，季節性在某些年份會超過 15%，例如從第一季到第二季的連續數字。所以我認為我們會思考這一點並且看到這一點。

I think the last point I would make with respect to the overall guidance for the year is I want to remind everyone that we do our guidance our forecasting based on the forward strip as it relates to the direct commodity exposure part of our business in the marketing segment. And if you look at that business today, obviously, we've had a very good January so far. I mean, I think most of the pricing, despite the tariff noise and volatility has shown up well. We see -- we saw Bellevue propane in the $0.90 range. Obviously, the dollar -- Canadian dollar has weakened, and that's a net positive for our business. But I think when you look at the curves for the balance of the year, I mean, if you were to look at a frac spread, for example, through the balance of the year, there's effectively a $10 difference between January and December frac-spread. So there's a fair amount of backwardation in the curves at the moment.

我認為關於今年總體指導的最後一點是，我想提醒大家，我們是根據遠期收益來進行指導和預測的，因為它與我們在行銷部門的業務中的直接商品風險部分有關。如果你看看今天的業務，顯然，到目前為止，我們的一月份業績非常好。我的意思是，我認為儘管存在關稅噪音和波動，但大多數定價都表現良好。我們看到——貝爾維尤丙烷價格在 0.90 美元的範圍內。顯然，美元——加元已經貶值，這對我們的業務來說是一件好事。但我認為，當您查看全年餘額的曲線時，我的意思是，如果您要查看分紅利差，例如，通過全年餘額，一月份和十二月的分紅利差之間實際上有 10 美元的差額。因此，目前曲線中存在相當程度的現貨溢價。

Obviously, if we continue to see each month churn by and not see that backwardation occur, that's a positive for us, but we only know what the market tells us right now or we're willing to put our fingers on and that's what's reflected in the guidance.

顯然，如果我們繼續看到每個月的流失，而沒有看到現貨溢價的發生，這對我們來說是積極的，但我們只知道市場現在告訴我們什麼，或者我們願意指出什麼，這就是指導中反映的內容。

I would just add as well. There were some call it, onetime capital recoveries in Q4 and just ensuring that those obviously aren't annualized into 2025. Those were select in 2024. So just ensuring everyone on the call is aware of that and doesn't carry that forward.

我只是想補充一下。有人稱之為第四季的一次性資本回收，只是為了確保這些資本回收顯然不會在 2025 年年化。這些都是 2024 年選定的。因此，只要確保通話中的每個人都意識到這一點並且不會繼續這樣做。

That's really good color there. And then maybe just on Cedar. It seems like the project risk profile has decreased meaningfully. So how should we think about future offtake contracts that you do sign maybe carrying a higher rate to reflect that? Can you give us some color about what kind of demand market you're seeing? I know you highlighted in the release, there's a lot of demand. So just color on that contracting environment.

那裡的顏色真好看。然後可能就只在 Cedar 上。看起來專案風險狀況已顯著下降。那麼，我們應該如何看待您簽署的未來承購合同，也許會採用更高的費率來反映這一點？您能否向我們介紹您所看到的市場需求類型？我知道您在新聞稿中強調了需求量很大。因此，只需為該收縮環境著色即可。

So Stu again. So again, we went out and like you stated, we do believe that we're derisking the project and we undertook and stepped up to FID the project. As such, we're out in the market. We've looked at to benefit from that derisking at this point in time. And as I stated previously, we've had lots of response and lots of positive response from both multinational oil companies and Canadian producers and LNG offtakers today. So we're pretty excited about taking that next step and believe we are, one, derisking the project, as you stated, but at the same time, improving the economics for the project as well.

Stu 又來了。因此，我們再次出去，就像你說的那樣，我們確實相信我們正在降低專案風險，並且我們承擔並加強了對專案的 FID。因此，我們進入了市場。目前，我們已經看到了從這種降低風險中獲益的機會。正如我之前所說，今天我們收到了來自跨國石油公司、加拿大生產商和液化天然氣承購商的大量積極回應。因此，我們對邁出下一步感到非常興奮，並且相信，正如您所說，我們首先會降低專案風險，但同時，也會提高專案的經濟效益。

Great, I'll leave it there thanks guys.

太好了，我就把它留在那裡了，謝謝大家。

Robert Catellier, CIBC Capital Markets.

加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場 (CIBC Capital Markets) 的 Robert Catellier。

I just wanted to follow up on the Greenlight project a little bit here. I wonder if you could talk about the genesis of the project and what attracted you to gas-fired power in the first place other than the integration aspect.

我只是想在這裡稍微跟進一下 Greenlight 專案。我想知道您是否可以談談該專案的起源，以及除了整合方面之外，是什麼最初吸引您進入燃氣發電領域。

Rob, it's Stu again. We started down the path, and we've mentioned and talked about our land adjacent to the Redwater assets, our low carbon complex and so we started looking for tenants and opportunities to utilize that land and power generation was one of those opportunities. We looked at in the early days, the carbon sequestration link and the connection to that.

羅布，又是斯圖。我們開始沿著這條路走下去，我們已經提到並討論了我們毗鄰 Redwater 資產的土地、我們的低碳綜合體，因此我們開始尋找租戶和利用該土地的機會，而發電就是其中之一。我們早期研究碳封存的聯繫以及與此相關的問題。

As things went on and we began working with the Conecticord team and as the markets change and where this power -- what was the plan for the power sale as opposed to just selling into the grid as such. As changed and pivoted and we started talking about and began meeting with co-locators and hyperscalers, and we've seen this opportunity to take the power generation right to a midstream type model with long-term contracts off the back end. So it quickly became very appealing to Pembina that we could make this look exactly like 1 of our other businesses.

隨著事情的發展，我們開始與 Conecticord 團隊合作，隨著市場的變化，這種電力的銷售計劃是什麼，而不是只賣到電網裡。隨著變化和轉變，我們開始與共同定位者和超大規模者進行討論並會面，我們看到了這個機會，可以將發電直接帶入中游類型模型，並在後端簽訂長期合約。因此，Pembina 很快就發現，我們可以讓它看起來與我們的其他業務一模一樣。

And as you mentioned, beyond that and the success we see with that change in the data center growth. Obviously, the interconnection, we always talked about providing services. Gas supply is potential. We have -- we have the capability and the infrastructure to provide gas, to provide water, to provide the land, as I've already mentioned. And so the integration opportunity just grew, but we like the project right from the start located on our land.

正如您所提到的，除此之外，我們還看到了資料中心成長的變化所帶來的成功。顯然，我們一直在談論互聯互通，提供服務。天然氣供應具有潛力。正如我已經提到的，我們有能力和基礎設施來提供天然氣、水和土地。因此整合的機會就不斷增長，但我們從一開始就喜歡位於我們土地上的項目。

Yes, that's helpful. And that's a good segue to the follow-up here about merchant exposure. I'm just curious, just in general, how much capital are you comfortable allocating to power? I know there's a couple of other projects Cochin and K3, but -- and then really the merchant exposure you're willing to take on, for example, I know you want to contract this in a way that it looks like the rest of your risk profile.

是的，這很有幫助。這對於後續關於商家曝光的討論是一個很好的過渡。我只是好奇，一般來說，您願意為電力分配多少資金？我知道還有其他幾個項目，例如 Cochin 和 K3，但是 — — 而實際上您願意承擔的商家風險，例如，我知道您希望以一種看起來像您其他風險狀況的方式來承包這部分風險。

But you have an internal load that can act as a bit of an internal hedge. And then to the extent that your appetite is different than your partners for future phases. For example, they might want to do more on spec than you're interested in doing. Are there off (inaudible) where in the circumstance where you're not aligned with your partner that you don't have to FID subsequent phases?

但是你有一個內部負荷，可以充當一點內部對沖。然後，您對未來階段的興趣會與您的合作夥伴有所不同。例如，他們可能想做比你感興趣的更多的事情。是否存在（聽不清楚）在您與合作夥伴意見不一致的情況下，您不需要 FID 後續階段？

Rob, I'll start out. I mean I think, first of all, our intention here is to match the power load with the need from the facility. So we don't see ourselves getting into the merchant power business. That's not what this is about. This is very much about leveraging the facilities in and around our existing assets, leveraging the integration and obviously having a really attractive sort of long-term annuity with very high quality, high worthy counterparties and the ability to use that to leverage the rest of our business. In terms of how much capital we could see allocating to this, I mean, obviously, we've talked about three phases as a part of this as sort of the initial piece.

羅布，我先走了。我的意思是，我認為，首先，我們的目的是將電力負載與設施的需求相匹配。因此，我們並不認為自己會涉足商業電力業務。這不是本文的重點。這主要是利用我們現有資產及其周圍的設施，利用整合，顯然擁有一種真正有吸引力的長期年金，擁有非常高品質、高價值的交易對手，並能夠利用它來利用我們其餘的業務。關於我們可以為此分配多少資本，我的意思是，顯然，我們已經討論了作為初步部分的三個階段。

I think we need to where that goes. And what I mean by that is we haven't talked about more than that. If the opportunities to grow are larger, I think we'll analyze that as we always would. But to go back to my initial response, this is not an intention to get into the merchant business, this is a long-term fee-based annuity just like the rest of our business.

我認為我們需要知道那會是什麼樣子。我的意思是我們還沒有談論更多的事情。如果成長機會更大，我認為我們會像往常一樣進行分析。但回到我最初的回答，我們並沒有打算進入商家業務，而是一種長期收費年金，就像我們的其他業務一樣。

Yes. Okay. Understood. And then finally, I just wanted to follow up on the tariff question update here. I'm curious how you're changing your approach to the NGL marketing year given the threat of tariffs and now they've been seemingly kicked out to April, which is not helpful given the marketing year. So are you doing anything in terms of language in your agreements? Or changing maybe the amount of exposure you want to have to marketing this year given the tariff trend?

是的。好的。明白了。最後，我只是想跟進一下這裡的關稅問題更新。我很好奇，考慮到關稅的威脅，您如何改變對 NGL 行銷年度的態度，現在關稅似乎被推遲到了 4 月份，這對於行銷年度來說沒有幫助。那麼您在協議語言方面做了什麼改進嗎？或者考慮到關稅趨勢，您是否會改變今年的行銷曝光量？

It's Chris Sherman. You mentioned that timing isn't great for the NGL contract year as far as sort of getting those contracts buttoned down. But we've been largely positioning ourselves, not tariff specific, but largely positioning ourselves as much off the West Coast as possible. And so that's really helped insulate us, first of all. And then I'd say, secondly, at least to date, we've seen a fairly reasonable approach with buyers where tariffs could have an impact and I think we will certainly be adding terms that are tariff specific and finding the right way to get that business done. It's not a big concern for us going into the NGL year.

我是克里斯·謝爾曼。您提到，就敲定這些合約而言，NGL 合約年的時機不太好。但我們基本上是在定位自己，不是針對特定的關稅，而是盡可能地將自己定位在西海岸以外。首先，這確實幫助我們保護自己。然後我想說，其次，至少到目前為止，我們看到了與買家採取的相當合理的做法，關稅可能會產生影響，我認為我們肯定會增加特定於關稅的條款，並找到正確的方法來完成這項業務。對我們進入 NGL 年來說，這不是什麼大問題。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Ben Pham from BMO Capital Markets

BMO 資本市場的 Ben Pham

I wanted to go to your guidance you initiated last year, the 4% to 6% CAGR. And can you comment on directionally with the Cochin recontracting and some of the levers you're seeing going forward, how you're thinking about where you're tracking to that range? And then also, your plan directionally, is this an annual role your contemplating on that guide? Or are you -- is it more of a way until it ends and you're rolling a couple of years out?

我想了解一下您去年提出的指導意見，即 4% 至 6% 的複合年增長率。您能否就科欽重組的方向和您所看到的未來​​一些因素發表評論，您如何考慮追蹤這一範圍？還有，從方向來看，您的計劃是，這是您在指南中考慮的年度角色嗎？還是你 — — 這更像是一種等待，直到它結束，然後你還要拖延幾年？

Ben, it's Cam here. Listen, I think in terms of the guide, obviously, we put it out last May. We're sort of halfway through it. I would say that we're happy with what we're seeing. We're seeing good opportunities, a big focus on that time frame, on productivity and sort of margin in the business. Certainly, we're trending well. I'm sort of reluctant to quantify it at this point in terms of exactly where we are. But certainly, we're very pleased with where we are tracking in the range. And I think there's a number of opportunities here, which the team is working on. And some of them will occur in that time frame, some of them will occur beyond. But like to sort of see that come to fruition before we start to stretch time line out even further. I would sort of mention that I think when we look at our guidance, lots of numbers out there in the peer group.

本，我是卡姆。聽著，我認為就指南而言，顯然我們是在去年五月發布的。我們已經完成了一半了。我想說我們對所看到的結果感到滿意。我們看到了很好的機遇，重點是時間範圍、生產力和業務利潤。當然，我們的趨勢很好。就我們目前的具體情況而言，我不太願意量化。但可以肯定的是，我們對我們的追蹤範圍感到非常滿意。我認為這裡有很多機會，團隊正在努力抓住這些機會。有些事件會在那個時間範圍內發生，有些事件會在該時間範圍之外發生。但在我們開始進一步延長時間表之前，我們希望能看到這一點取得成果。我想說的是，我認為當我們查看我們的指導時，同行中有很多數字。

We always talk about ours on a fee-based dollar per share and we think as we look at some of those comparable numbers from some of our peers, the 4% to 6% continues to stack up in line with our peers and well for the most part.

我們總是按照每股費用來談論我們的業務，我們認為，當我們看到一些同行的可比較數字時，4%到6%的比例仍然與我們的同行保持一致，而且在大多數情況下都是如此。

Got it. And maybe a follow-up on Alliance. I'm not sure maybe Stu has mentioned this that things are going quite well. Can you impact (inaudible) that is that -- is that more of -- you feel pretty good about the timing of how this could get resolved maybe a little bit quicker than you expected in terms of discovery? Or is it related to maybe something else that you're referring to?

知道了。也許是對 Alliance 的後續行動。我不確定斯圖是否提到這一點，事情進展得相當順利。您能否影響（聽不清楚）——這是否更多的是——您是否對這個問題得到解決的時間安排感到非常滿意，也許比您預期的在發現方面要快一點？或者它可能與您所指的其他內容有關？

Ben, Jaret here. Yes, I can't really get into the details. I think my commentary around it, it's going well, as we have routine meetings with the shipper group. The shipper group is we're having great conversations in the room really trying to get down to brass tax on what all the parties want. So that is the encouragement here. And then I mentioned it earlier in the call, but hopefully in the May time frame, we're able to give a lot more color with respect to the progression of commercial opportunities there.

本，我是賈瑞特。是的，我實在無法了解細節。我認為我對此的評論進展順利，因為我們與托運人小組舉行了例行會議。托運人小組在會議室裡進行了非常愉快的對話，試圖真正弄清楚各方的具體需求。這就是這裡的鼓勵。然後我在電話會議中早些時候提到過它，但希望在五月的時間範圍內，我們能夠就那裡的商業機會的進展提供更多細節。

Okay, got it. Thanks. Okay, thanks everybody.

好的，明白了。謝謝。好的，謝謝大家。

Patrick Kenny from National Bank.

來自國家銀行的派崔克·肯尼。

Yes. I know there's been a lot on Greenlight already, but I just wanted to confirm, since you won't be in the driver seat per se on the development and construction process, and I know you're still currently in negotiations, but curious if you might be contemplating anything unique within your LP with Kineticor that might mitigate or protect your exposure to the risk of cost overruns as the complex has built out just given this isn't really your core business?

是的。我知道已經有很多關於 Greenlight 的消息了，但我只是想確認一下，因為您不會在開發和建設過程中佔據主導地位，而且我知道您目前仍在談判中，但我很好奇您是否可能考慮在與 Kineticor 的 LP 中採取任何獨特措施，以減輕或保護您在綜合體建成後面臨成本超支的風險，因為這並不是您的核心業務？

Got it, Stu. We -- in taking a step with Greenlight and the JV that we've entered into. We look back, did our due diligence with respect to (inaudible), their capabilities, where they are sitting the progress that they've made to date and became comfortable. We are a 50% partner as described as we go forward. We made sure that we secured the correct governance that we need to have this go forward on with our controls in place and our oversight that we thought we needed as we would go. We're making sure that we have the right people to stay on top of the project from this position, and we're comfortable where we're going.

明白了，斯圖。我們與 Greenlight 以及我們成立的合資公司邁出了一步。我們回顧過去，對他們的能力、他們目前所處的狀況、他們迄今所取得的進展以及他們所感到的舒適度進行了盡職調查。正如我們所描述的，我們是一個 50% 的合作夥伴。我們確保獲得正確的治理，以便我們能夠在實施過程中實施控制措施和我們認為需要的監督，從而使這項工作順利進行。我們正在確保有合適的人才從這個職位上掌控項目，並且我們對未來的發展感到滿意。

Yes. And just to remind, again, these are not new. They've just completed building a cascade power plant. We're excited about working with them and again, believe that we've made -- selected the correct partner for us in this endeavor.

是的。再提醒一下，這些都不是新鮮事。他們剛建造了一座梯級發電廠。我們很高興能與他們合作，並再次相信我們已經選擇了正確的合作夥伴。

Got it. Okay. And then switching gears to Northeast BC just with the renewed support for resource infrastructure in the province. Can you provide a bit more color as to what you think industry might need over the near to medium term with respect to whether it's additional fractionation capacity or other infrastructure over and above what you might have in flight today? I'm thinking really especially if and when LNG Canada sanctions Phase II.

知道了。好的。然後轉向不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部，重新支持該省的資源基礎設施。您能否更詳細地說明您認為該行業在近期到中期內可能需要什麼，例如是否需要額外的分餾能力或其他基礎設施，以超越您目前所擁有的？我正在認真思考，尤其是當加拿大液化天然氣公司批准第二階段時。

This is Jaret. Yes, great question. So obviously, Scott mentioned in our call that we're actively proceeding and Cam mentioned, we're deploying capital on our Northeast BC expansions with just what's in front of us with LNG Canada Phase I, Cedar, wood fiber, et cetera, we see a material amount of NGLs, condensate and obviously, our C3+ coming out of that area. So our long-term view of the macro view would be not only does Pembina's projects are going to be required, but there's probably other third-party projects that are going to be required and that we're supportive of taking place because the industry is going to require it, especially with LNG Canada Phase II, potentially on the horizon.

這是 Jaret。是的，很好的問題。因此顯然，史考特在我們的電話會議中提到我們正在積極推進，卡姆提到我們正在為不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的擴張部署資金，我們面前的就是加拿大液化天然氣第一期、雪松、木纖維等等，我們看到大量的天然氣液體、凝析油，顯然還有我們的 C3+ 都來自該地區。因此，從宏觀角度來看，我們的長期觀點是，不僅需要 Pembina 的項目，還可能需要其他第三方項目，而且我們支持這些項目的開展，因為行業將需要它，尤其是可能即將啟動的加拿大液化天然氣第二階段項目。

Maybe we gets a Cedar II one day, et cetera, et cetera. But there is a lot of -- there's a lot of very good momentum with respect to West Coast exports. With respect to fractionation, our RFS IV project continues, really glad that we sanctioned that when we did. It's -- we're going to deliver that at a very effective cost per barrel when you do the math on that greenfield project, and it's getting highly contracted and adding a bunch of more NGLs from Yellowhead to Sherman's book on our marketing business takes up more NGL capacity.

也許有一天我們會得到一台 Cedar II，等等，等等。但西海岸出口方面有很多非常好的勢頭。關於分餾，我們的 RFS IV 專案仍在繼續，非常高興我們在當時批准了這個專案。當您計算該綠地專案時，我們將以非常有效的每桶成本交付該產品，而且它的合約量很大，並且從 Yellowhead 向 Sherman 的營銷業務中添加更多 NGL 會佔用更多的 NGL 產能。

So we do believe macro that another fractionator will be required to meet that NGL demand, obviously, because we're tight. Our competitors have been talking about it, Pembina has been talking about it. And we think we're in obviously a really good situation to be able to capture more of that growth opportunity as well.

因此，我們確實相信，宏觀上需要另一個分餾塔來滿足 NGL 需求，顯然是因為我們資金緊張。我們的競爭對手一直在談論它，Pembina 也一直在談論它。我們認為，我們顯然處於一個非常有利的情況下，能夠抓住更多的成長機會。

A bunch of more NGLs from Yellowhead to Sherman's book on our marketing business, takes up more NGL capacity. So we do believe macro that another fractionator will be required to meet that NGL demand, obviously because we're tight. Our competitors have been talking about it. Emin has been talking about it, and we think we're in obviously a really good situation to be able to capture more of that growth opportunity as well.

我們的行銷業務中從 Yellowhead 到 Sherman 的書的大量 NGL 佔用了更多的 NGL 容量。因此，我們確實相信，宏觀上需要另一個分餾塔來滿足 NGL 需求，顯然是因為我們資金緊張。我們的競爭對手一直在談論這件事。Emin 一直在談論這個問題，我們認為我們顯然處於一個非常有利的情況下，能夠抓住更多的成長機會。

Okay, thanks, Jarrett. I appreciate that and Not sure if you could provide any update on your application on the Western pipeline system. Looks like we might get a decision in April, but just wondering what what the financial impact might be if you do get the green light to shut down the line, or not sure if you took any provision in the quarter or not.

好的，謝謝，賈瑞特。我對此表示感謝，但不確定您是否可以提供有關西部管道系統應用的任何最新資訊。看起來我們可能會在四月做出決定，但只是想知道如果真的獲得關閉生產線的綠燈，會有什麼財務影響，或者不確定您是否在本季度採取了任何準備金。

But maybe on the flip side, if you do need to keep the pipe operating, roughly what quantum of capital might be required to, maintain the integrity of the line. Thanks.

但另一方面，如果你確實需要保持管道運行，大概需要多少資金來維持管道的完整性。謝謝。

Okay. Good question, Pat. So yes, we shut down in the southern portion of the Western line. I think in 2022, we took that out of service. This pipeline is significantly older than myself. I would say that it's becoming -- it's getting to its useful end of economic life. We're going to have to deploy more and more capital to maintain the operate-ability to save reliable operation of that asset and hence, the abandonment application. The financial impact is very immaterial to our overall business, taking the pipeline out of service. So we're just kind of working through that right now.

好的。問得好，帕特。是的，我們關閉了西線的南部部分。我認為在 2022 年，我們將停止使用此功能。這條管道比我自己年紀大得多。我想說，它正在成為——它正在達到其經濟生命的有用終點。我們將必須部署越來越多的資本來維持營運能力，以確保該資產的可靠運行，從而實現放棄申請。管道停止服務對於我們整體業務的財務影響並不大。所以我們現在正在努力解決這個問題。

I don't think -- I won't get into the magnitude of the capital that's required to keep it in service, but it's not a material amount, all things considered with respect to our overall integrity program. But it is a substantial amount of work internally for us to maintain that asset and keep it in the safe, reliable operation that we expect across our asset base.

我不認為——我不會深入討論維持其服務所需的資金數額，但從我們整體的誠信計劃來看，這不是一個實質性的數額。但對我們來說，維護該資產並保證其在整個資產基礎上安全可靠地運作需要做大量內部工作。

And Pat, it's Cam. I would just add that, of course, there is a single customer on that line today. And as has been the case, it's a cost recovery mechanism for capital spend and for repairs and maintenance. We would continue to expect that if investment was required going forward, and that is obviously part of the dynamic here is whether it can be operated in an economic way in the future.

帕特，我是卡姆。我只想補充一點，當然，今天那條線路只有一位顧客。正如實際情況一樣，它是一種資本支出以及維修和維護的成本回收機制。我們將繼續預期，如果未來需要投資，這顯然是這裡的動態的一部分，即它是否能夠在未來以經濟的方式運作。

Understood. Okay, that's great. Thanks guys. I appreciate all the comments.

明白了。好的，太好了。謝謝大家。我感謝所有的評論。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Scott Burrows for closing comments. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉給 Scott Burrows 來做最後評論。請繼續。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today, and we were very pleased to end the year with a very strong Q4 and some exciting new growth projects. So thanks to all of those on the call, our investors, our shareholders, our employees. We look forward to a great 2025. Thank you.

感謝大家今天的到來，我們很高興以強勁的第四季度業績和一些令人興奮的新增長項目結束這一年。感謝電話會議中的所有人，我們的投資者、股東和員工。我們期待著偉大的2025年。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.

非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。