Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Par Pacific third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Par Pacific 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashimi Patel, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Ashimi Patel。請繼續。

Thank you, Todd. Welcome to Par Pacific's third-quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today are Will Monteleone, President and Chief Executive Officer; Richard Kremer, EVP of Refining and Logistics; and Sean Flores, SVP and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，托德。歡迎參加 Par Pacific 第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Will Monteleone；煉油與物流執行副總裁 Richard Kremer；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Sean Flores。

Before we begin, note that our comments today may include forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements are subject to change and are not guarantees of future performance or events. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. I refer you to our investor presentation on our website and to our filings with the SEC for non-GAAP reconciliations and additional information.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們今天的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述。任何前瞻性陳述都可能發生變化，並且不能保證未來的表現或事件。它們受風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。因此，投資者不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔更新或修改這些陳述的任何義務。請您參閱我們網站上的投資者介紹以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的非公認會計準則對帳表和其他資訊。

I'll now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Will Monteleone.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長威爾蒙特萊昂 (Will Monteleone)。

Thank you, Ashimi, and good morning, everyone. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $51 million and adjusted net loss was $0.10 per share. Operational performance was strong with a record quarterly refining throughput, record logistics adjusted EBITDA and continuing in-store retail improvements. The durability of our results in the challenging refining market reflect the benefits of our diversified business model and the unique markets we serve.

謝謝你，Ashimi，大家早安。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,100 萬美元，調整後淨虧損為每股 0.10 美元。營運績效表現強勁，季度煉油產量創歷史新高，物流調整後 EBITDA 創歷史新高，店內零售持續改善。在充滿挑戰的煉油市場中，我們業績的持久性反映了我們多元化業務模式和我們所服務的獨特市場的優勢。

The current refining margin environment is testing breakeven levels for many operators and is driving the next wave of supply rationalization starting in 2025. Refining fundamentals suggest more balanced supply and demand and current margins. Simultaneously, global inventories remain below five-year averages in most regions. Small changes and balances are driving outsized changes to margins. We are not waiting for the market to turn our way and are focusing on the things we can control.

目前的煉油利潤環境正在考驗許多業者的盈虧平衡水平，並將推動從 2025 年開始的下一波供應合理化浪潮。煉油基本面顯示供需和當前利潤更加平衡。同時，全球大多數地區的庫存仍低於五年平均值。微小的變化和平衡正在推動利潤率的巨大變化。我們不會等待市場按照我們的意願發展，而是專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

We're targeting to reduce 2025 fixed operating expenses by $30 million to $40 million, positioning our company to thrive in both high-cycle and low-cycle environments. In retail, quarterly same-store fuel volumes declined by 1.4%, while merchandise sales grew by 3.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023. While same-store sales volumes were down, total fuel volumes were up approximately 100,000 gallons over this period, reflecting the contributions of our new stores. We continue to progress our strategic growth initiatives in the third quarter.

我們的目標是將 2025 年的固定營運費用減少 3,000 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元，使我們的公司在高週期和低週期環境中都能蓬勃發展。在零售業，本季同店燃料銷量與 2023 年第三季相比下降了 1.4%，而商品銷售額則成長了 3.8%。雖然同店銷售量下降，但在此期間總燃料銷量增加了約 10 萬加侖，反映了我們新店的貢獻。我們在第三季度繼續推進我們的戰略成長計劃。

Investments in Billings reliability are delivering encouraging results. Initial objectives were to drive reliability first and then work towards cost competitiveness. We are accelerating focus on cost considering the current backdrop while planning to complete the major FCC and alkylation unit turnaround during the first half of 2025.

對比林斯可靠性的投資正在產生令人鼓舞的成果。最初的目標是先提高可靠性，然後努力實現成本競爭力。考慮到目前的背景，我們正在加快關注成本，同時計劃在 2025 年上半年完成主要的 FCC 和烷基化裝置的改造。

In Hawaii, we broke ground on the SAF project and are on track for startup in the second half of 2025. We are encouraged by the improving renewable fuels backdrop on the West Coast and the Pacific Basin. This capital-efficient project remains an important element of our future growth.

在夏威夷，我們破土動工啟動 SAF 項目，預計將於 2025 年下半年啟動。西海岸和太平洋盆地再生燃料環境的改善令我們感到鼓舞。這個資本高效的項目仍然是我們未來成長的重要因素。

Despite softer market conditions, our strong financial position affords us the capability to invest in our business and grow its long-term profitability. Executing the Billings initiatives and delivering the Hawaii SAF project our focus areas to grow the earnings power of our business.

儘管市場狀況疲軟，但我們強勁的財務狀況使我們有能力投資我們的業務並提高其長期盈利能力。執行比林斯計劃和開展夏威夷 SAF 項目是我們的重點領域，以提高我們業務的盈利能力。

I'll now turn the call over to Richard to discuss our refining and logistics operations.

現在我將把電話轉給理查德，討論我們的煉油和物流業務。

Thank you, Will. The refining segment, third quarter combined throughput was a new part quarterly record of over 198,000 barrels per day, reflecting strong reliability and summer utilization. While achieving this record throughput, each of our refining teams has demonstrated their dedication to operating safely and continuously driving reliability improvement.

謝謝你，威爾。煉油部門第三季綜合產量創下季度新高，達到每天 198,000 桶以上，反映出強大的可靠性和夏季利用率。在實現這項創紀錄產量的同時，我們的每個煉油團隊都展現了對安全運作和持續推動可靠性改進的奉獻精神。

In Hawaii, throughput was 81,000 barrels per day and production costs were $4.58 per barrel. The refinery team responded exceptionally well through reliability challenges and delivered 97% operational availability year-to-date.

在夏威夷，產量為每天 81,000 桶，生產成本為每桶 4.58 美元。煉油廠團隊在可靠性挑戰中做出了出色的反應，今年迄今的營運可用性達到了 97%。

Shifting to Wyoming, throughput was 19,000 barrels per day and production costs were $7 per barrel. Wyoming's third-quarter operational performance reflects the team's ability to consistently deliver competitive results.

轉移到懷俄明州，產量為每天 19,000 桶，生產成本為每桶 7 美元。懷俄明州第三季的營運表現反映了該團隊持續提供有競爭力的業績的能力。

Moving to Washington, Throughput was 41,000 barrels per day and production costs were $3.50 per barrel. The Washington team is delivering highly efficient and reliable operations while in this challenging market environment.

轉移到華盛頓，產量為每天 41,000 桶，生產成本為每桶 3.50 美元。在充滿挑戰的市場環境中，華盛頓團隊仍提供高效、可靠的營運。

Finally, Billings delivered a strong 57,000 barrels per day of crude throughput with production cost of $11.61 per barrel. The Billings team safely completed the planned coker outage during the third quarter. Our progress on mechanical availability and reliability has enabled us to optimize and extend our upcoming turnaround schedule. Billings will be our only 2025 turnaround, with Hawaii and Wyoming shifting to 2026. And in Washington, we've implemented various mechanical integrity programs, enabling us to extend the turnaround cycle by two years to 2028 and transition to a six-year cycle. These actions enhance the capital and operational efficiency at all of the sites.

最後，比林斯原油日產量達到 57,000 桶，生產成本為每桶 11.61 美元。比林斯團隊在第三季安全完成了焦化裝置停產計畫。我們在機械可用性和可靠性方面取得的進展使我們能夠優化和延長即將到來的周轉計劃。比林斯將是我們 2025 年唯一的轉捩點，夏威夷和懷俄明州將轉移到 2026 年。在華盛頓，我們實施了各種機械完整性計劃，使我們能夠將週轉週期延長兩年至 2028 年，並過渡到六年週期。這些措施提高了所有站點的資本和營運效率。

Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect throughput in Hawaii between 80,000 and 83,000 barrels per day, Wyoming between [15,000] and [17,000], Washington between [38,000] and [41,000], Billings between 48% and 52%, resulting in system-wide seasonal throughput between 182,000 and 193,000 barrels per day.

展望第四季度，我們預期夏威夷的日產量在80,000 至83,000 桶之間，懷俄明州的日產量在[15,000] 至[17,000] 之間，華盛頓州的日產量在[38,000] 至[ 41,000] 之間，比林斯的日產量在48% 至52% 之間，從而導致系統整個季節性吞吐量在每天182,000至193,000桶之間。

I'll now turn the call over to Shawn to cover the financial results.

現在我將把電話轉給肖恩來介紹財務結果。

Thank you, Richard. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings were $51 million and a loss of $6 million or $0.10 per share. The refining segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $20 million compared to $60 million in the second quarter.

謝謝你，理查。第三季調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後收益為 5,100 萬美元，虧損 600 萬美元或每股 0.10 美元。煉油部門報告的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,000 萬美元，而第二季為 6,000 萬美元。

In Hawaii, the Singapore Index averaged $11 per barrel and our crude differential was $6.51, resulting in a combined index of $4.49 per barrel. While margin capture was 136%, including the product crack hedge gain and price lag benefits totaling $10 million. Excluding these benefits, Hawaii capture was 106%. We are increasing our benchmark capture guidance to a range between 100% and 110%, which incorporates over $20 million of annual margin improvement related to the June working capital refinancing. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect Hawaii crude differentials to land between $5.75 and $6.25 per barrel.

在夏威夷，新加坡指數平均為每桶 11 美元，而我們的原油差價為 6.51 美元，綜合指數為每桶 4.49 美元。而利潤率為136%，其中包括產品裂解套期收益和價格滯後收益，總額為1000萬美元。除去這些福利，夏威夷的捕獲率為 106%。我們將基準捕獲指導提高到 100% 至 110% 之間的範圍，其中包括與 6 月份營運資金再融資相關的超過 2000 萬美元的年度利潤率改善。展望第四季度，我們預計夏威夷原油差價將在每桶 5.75 美元至 6.25 美元之間。

In Billings, our US Gulf Coast index averaged $14.14 per barrel, margin capture was 88%, reflecting higher crude costs of approximately $20 million, primarily driven by an increase in light crude mix during the second-quarter turnaround activities and the one quarter FIFO lag on posted crude differentials.

在比林斯，我們的美國墨西哥灣沿岸指數平均為每桶14.14 美元，利潤率為88%，反映出原油成本增加約2000 萬美元，這主要是由於第二季度週轉活動期間輕質原油混合物增加以及一個季度的先進先出法滯後根據公佈的原油差價。

Third-quarter margins were also influenced by market dynamics in the Pacific Northwest, which weighed on clean product netbacks in Eastern Washington. Looking ahead, Billings feedstock costs are expected to improve as we return to a heavier crude diet in the fourth quarter, with coker maintenance activities completed, fourth-quarter production costs are expected to return to prior run rate of approximately $55 million.

第三季的利潤率也受到太平洋西北地區市場動態的影響，這給華盛頓東部的清潔產品淨回值帶來了壓力。展望未來，隨著我們在第四季度恢復使用重質原油，比林斯原料成本預計將有所改善，隨著焦化裝置維護活動的完成，第四季度的生產成本預計將恢復到先前的約5500萬美元的運轉率。

Moving to Wyoming, factored to the Gulf Coast index was 97%, including a negative FIFO impact of $5 million. Adjusting for FIFO, Wyoming capture was 115%, consistent with typical summer premiums.

轉移到懷俄明州，墨西哥灣沿岸指數的因素為 97%，其中包括 500 萬美元的負面 FIFO 影響。根據先進先出法進行調整，懷俄明州的捕獲率為 115%，與典型的夏季保費一致。

Lastly, in Washington, our P&W Index averaged $15.48 per barrel margin capture was 11%, reflecting a challenging jet fuel and VGO market on the West Coast. Despite the margin backdrop, the combined refinery and logistics operations in Tacoma generated positive adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter with a low operating and capital cost structure, our Tacoma business competitively serves the Pacific Northwest through low-margin cycles.

最後，在華盛頓，我們的 P&W 指數平均為每桶 15.48 美元，利潤率為 11%，反映出西海岸的航空燃料和 VGO 市場充滿挑戰。儘管利潤率較低，但塔科馬綜合煉油和物流業務在第三季度仍產生了正的調整後EBITDA，憑藉較低的營運和資本成本結構，我們的塔科馬業務在低利潤率週期中為太平洋西北地區提供了有競爭力的服務。

The logistics segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $33 million in the third quarter compared to $26 million in the second quarter, driven by record refining throughput of nearly 200,000 barrels per day and over 216,000 barrels per day of product sales across our system. Our retail segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $21 million during the third quarter compared to $19 million in the second quarter strong retail performance was driven by expanding fuel margins and continued growth in merchandise sales.

物流部門第三季調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤為3,300 萬美元，而第二季為2,600 萬美元，這得益於我們系統內創紀錄的近200,000 桶/日的煉油吞吐量和超過216,000桶/日的產品銷售。我們的零售部門報告第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,100 萬美元，而第二季為 1,900 萬美元，強勁的零售業績得益於燃油利潤率的提高和商品銷售的持續增長。

Corporate expenses and adjusted EBITDA were $23 million in the third quarter or approximately $1 million improvement compared to the second quarter. Net cash provided by operations during the third quarter totaled $79 million, including a $67 million working capital inflow related to the expected drawdown of inventories partially offset by deferred turnaround expenditures of $16 million. Excluding these two items, cash from operations was $27 million during the third quarter. Cash used in investing activities totaled $28 million, primarily related to capital expenditures.

第三季企業費用和調整後 EBITDA 為 2,300 萬美元，較第二季增加約 100 萬美元。第三季經營活動提供的淨現金總計 7,900 萬美元，其中包括與預期庫存減少相關的 6,700 萬美元營運資金流入，但部分被 1,600 萬美元的遞延週轉支出所抵銷。除這兩項外，第三季的經營現金流為 2,700 萬美元。投資活動所用現金總計 2,800 萬美元，主要用於資本支出。

Moving to financing activities. We repurchased $22 million of common stock during the third quarter while reducing ABL borrowings by $14 million. Our share repurchase strategy will remain dynamic, adapting to changes through our medium-term cash flow and liquidity outlook. Gross term debt as of September 30 was $546 million near the bottom end of our term debt leverage targets of 3 to 4 times our retail and logistics EBITDA.

轉向融資活動。我們在第三季回購了價值 2,200 萬美元的普通股，同時減少了 1,400 萬美元的 ABL 借款。我們的股票回購策略將保持動態，透過中期現金流和流動性前景適應變化。截至 9 月 30 日的總定期債務為 5.46 億美元，接近我們的定期債務槓桿目標的底端，即零售和物流 EBITDA 的 3 到 4 倍。

Total liquidity as of September 30 was $633 million, consisting of $184 million in cash and $450 million in availability with targeted minimum liquidity between $250 million and $300 million, our balance sheet is strong and well-positioned to achieve our strategic growth objectives through the margin cycle.

截至9 月30 日，總流動資金為6.33 億美元，其中包括1.84 億美元現金和4.5 億美元可用資金，目標最低流動資金在2.5 億美元至3 億美元之間，我們的資產負債表強勁，並且能夠透過利潤率實現我們的策略成長目標循環。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we'll turn it back to you for Q&A.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。接線員，我們會將問題轉回給您進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) John Royall, JPMorgan.

(操作員指示) 摩根大通的 John Royall。

Hi, good morning. This is Alejandra Magana on for John Royall. My first question is on share buybacks. How could we think about the buybacks in light of a worsening crack environment but also recognizing that you've been responsive to price and look to buy back stock on the share price dips? Would you use the balance sheet to increase your buybacks today given the price levels are attractive?

嗨，早安。這是 Alejandra Magana，取代 John Royall 演出。我的第一個問題是關於股票回購。在裂解環境不斷惡化的情況下，我們如何考慮回購，同時又認識到您對價格反應靈敏，並希望在股價下跌時回購股票？鑑於價格水平具有吸引力，您會使用資產負債表來增加今天的回購嗎？

Hey Alejandra, it's Shawn. I'll start, and I'll let Will chime in. I think we -- our liquidity position remains strong at $630 million. I referenced the minimum liquidity target of $250 million to $300 million. So well in excess of those targets. And I think we're going to maintain an opportunistic approach to share buybacks. And ultimately, what we've said is it will be based on our medium-term cash flow and liquidity outlook.

嘿 Alejandra，我是 Shawn。我先開始，然後讓威爾加入進來。我認為我們的流動資金狀況仍然強勁，達到 6.3 億美元。我提到了 2.5 億至 3 億美元的最低流動性目標。遠遠超出了這些目標。我認為我們將繼續採取機會主義的方式進行股票回購。最終，我們說這將基於我們的中期現金流和流動性前景。

Our views of fundamental value certainly hasn't changed during this cycle, and we'll continue to balance, I think the opportunity of buying back our stock at really attractive prices with the value of maintaining a strong balance sheet to support not only strategic growth, but some of the capital investments that we have over the next six to nine months.

在這一周期中，我們對基本價值的看法當然沒有改變，我們將繼續保持平衡，我認為以真正有吸引力的價格回購股票的機會與維持強勁資產負債表的價值，以支持戰略增長，而是我們在未來六到九個月內進行的一些資本投資。

Got it, thanks for that. And then just switching gears. Logistics had a very strong quarter. And while refining throughput was a record, it's a short history since you've acquired Billings and these types of throughputs are likely repeatable. Can we expect that you can do $30 million-plus of logistics EBITDA in a low-90s utilization environment going forward or are there any other moving pieces that may not be repeatable?

明白了，謝謝。然後就換檔了。物流業本季表現非常強勁。雖然煉油產量創下了紀錄，但自從你收購比林斯以來這只是一個短暫的歷史，這種類型的產量可能是可以重複的。我們是否可以預期您能在未來 90% 以下的利用率環境下實現 3,000 萬美元以上的物流 EBITDA，或者是否有其他可能無法重複的變動因素？

Yeah. Alejandra, I think our logistics mid-cycle guidance that we've provided is $115 million on an annualized basis, which would imply about $29 million a quarter. But keep in mind, in Q2 and Q3, we are typically running at full rates and maximizing sales volume. So typically, you'll see higher than mid-cycle margins in the summer environment.

是的。亞歷杭德拉，我認為我們提供的物流中期指導價是按年率計算 1.15 億美元，這意味著每季約 2900 萬美元。但請記住，在第二季和第三季度，我們通常全速運轉並最大化銷售量。因此通常情況下，你會看到在夏季環境中利潤率高於中期週期。

Got it, thank you.

知道了，謝謝。

Matthew Blair, Tudor Pickering and Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸皮克林和霍爾特。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Shawn, I think you mentioned a target to reduce OpEx by $30 million to $40 million in 2025. Do you have any examples of projects that you're undertaking to do this? And in terms of measuring this progress, would this come through in refining OpEx or are there any other line items that we should be keeping an eye on?

謝謝大家，早安。肖恩，我記得你提到到 2025 年將營運支出減少 3000 萬美元至 4000 萬美元的目標。您有正在進行的實現這一目標的專案實例嗎？在衡量這項進展方面，這是否會透過改善營運支出來實現，或者是否還有其他我們應該關注的項目？

Matthew, it's Will. I'll take this on. The two major areas are reductions in corporate expense related to getting down to one IT system. So we are still in two systems related to the Billings acquisition and have excess costs impacting our corporate spend. So I think that's roughly half. And then the other half is a mixture of refining and logistics costs. So I think you'll principally see it impact refining OpEx. And that's probably the two locations where you see flow through the income statement.

馬修，我是威爾。我會接受這個。兩個主要領域是減少與採用單一 IT 系統相關的企業開支。因此，我們仍然處於與比林斯收購相關的兩個系統中，過多的成本影響了我們的企業支出。所以我認為大約是一半。另一半是煉油和物流成本的混合。所以我認為你主要會看到它對煉油營運支出的影響。這可能是您在損益表中看到流量的兩個位置。

Sounds good, thanks. And then could you talk about your long-term outlook for the Washington refinery. We've seen some competitors on the West Coast announced their intention to close and fundamentals have been a little tough lately. How do you see the long-term outlook for Tacoma?

聽起來不錯，謝謝。那麼您能談談華盛頓煉油廠的長期展望嗎？我們看到西海岸的一些競爭對手宣布了關閉的意圖，而且最近基本面有點艱難。您如何看待塔科馬的長期前景？

Sure. Certainly, difficult fundamental backdrop on the West Coast as reflected in our quarterly results. The way we think about Tacoma is ultimately, it's a low-cost player in that market. When you look at our operating costs in the $3.50 per barrel range and the capital efficiency that plant has one of its major advantages. And I think in addition, it has feedstock advantages versus its peers who are principally buying waterborne crude.

當然。當然，正如我們的季度業績所反映的那樣，西海岸的基本面十分艱難。我們對 Tacoma 的看法最終是，它是該市場上的低成本參與者。如果您看一下我們每桶 3.50 美元的營運成本以及資本效率，您會發現工廠具有很大的優勢。此外，我認為，與主要購買水運原油的同業相比，它具有原料優勢。

So two unique attributes of that facility that I think present it to minimize cash consumption through the cycle in core margin environments like we're in, but allow it to participate in the upside. When you -- which I think are inevitable along the West Coast as you think about the supply rationalization, changing in big chunks while demand is not moving in the same manner.

因此，我認為該設施有兩個獨特的屬性，可以在我們所處的核心保證金環境中，在整個週期中最大限度地減少現金消耗，但又允許其參與上行。我認為，當你考慮到供應合理化時，西海岸不可避免地會發生大規模的變化，而需求卻不會以同樣的方式變動。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Maybe a couple of quick ones. Despite investor concerns over recent months on Asian refining margins and economic backdrop over there, your Hawaiian asset continues to exceed expectations. Can you talk about how you're seeing the environment out there and what continues to sustain the relatively strong performance out in Hawaii?

謝謝。也許是幾個簡單的。儘管近幾個月來投資者對亞洲煉油利潤率和經濟背景感到擔憂，但您的夏威夷資產仍然超出預期。您能談談您如何看待那裡的環境以及是什麼繼續維持夏威夷相對強勁的表現嗎？

Sure, Ryan. So I think the work that you see in the performance in Hawaii is really evidence of five-plus years of effort by our team. And I think you see that in Hawaii, and I think you see that in Wyoming. But as you think about Asia, I think, ultimately, our Hawaii business has improved to where even at mid-cycle or probably below mid-cycle conditions like we're seeing. Ultimately, we can still generate positive adjusted EBITDA. And this is due to our cost structure there as well as our commercial agreements. So I think those are the key factors that are in place.

當然，瑞安。所以我認為您在夏威夷的演出中看到的成果確實證明了我們團隊五年以上的努力。我想你們在夏威夷也能看到這種情況，我想你們在懷俄明州也能看到這種情況。但是當你想到亞洲時，我認為，最終，我們的夏威夷業務已經改善到甚至處於週期中期或可能低於週期中期的水平，就像我們所看到的那樣。最終，我們仍然可以產生正的調整後 EBITDA。這是因為我們的成本結構以及商業協議。所以我認為這些都是存在的關鍵因素。

So you think about Asia broadly, we're seeing improvements in the Singapore 312 market, I think, largely driven by increases in jet demand seasonally, and the Chinese policies are limiting exports. So that's at the margin changing real time, I think some of the supply-demand balances for distillate in the Pacific Rim. I think that's worth watching. But ultimately, I think the key factor for distillate balances heading into the winter in Asia.

因此，從廣泛的角度來看亞洲，我們看到新加坡 312 市場正在改善，我認為這主要是受季節性噴射機需求成長的推動，而中國的政策正在限制出口。因此，我認為這是即時變化的邊際，環太平洋地區的餾分油供需平衡。我認為這值得一看。但最終，我認為這是進入亞洲冬季時餾分油平衡的關鍵因素。

Great, thanks. And then maybe a second one. Thanks for the update on the upcoming turnaround schedule and some of the adjustments you've been able to make. Can you provide any additional color on what you've been able to do to spread out the turnaround schedule for some of your assets there, what might this mean for kind of the right way to think about average annual turnaround capital requirements across your system? And maybe for the overall kind of annual capital requirements for your business?

太好了，謝謝。然後也許還有第二個。感謝您對即將到來的周轉計劃的更新以及您能夠做出的一些調整。您能否進一步說明一下您為延長部分資產的周轉時間所採取的措施，這對於正確思考整個系統的平均年度週轉資本要求意味著什麼？或許是您企業的整體年度資本需求？

Yeah, Ryan. This is Richard Creamer. I think the work that we've done over the last couple of years on improving our mechanical integrity programs and systems has allowed us to stay on top of some of the reliability opportunities that we've had in the past and has allowed us to correct those. And now, we're in a position where we can take advantage of some of that work and extend these turnaround periods on out, which gives us a longer period to amortize those turnaround costs out.

是的，瑞安。這是理查德·克里默。我認為，過去幾年我們在改進機械完整性計劃和系統方面所做的工作，讓我們能夠把握過去的一些可靠性機會，並使我們能夠糾正那些。現在，我們可以利用其中的一些工作並延長這些週轉期，這使我們有更長的時間來攤銷這些週轉成本。

Hey, Ryan. This is Shawn. We're continuing to sort of guide towards $40 million of amortized or expenditures over the cycle.

嘿，瑞安。這是肖恩。我們將繼續引導整個週期內攤提或支出達到 4000 萬美元。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

Yeah, thanks so much. Maybe does build on the Washington comments because it was a very tough quarter there with very low capture rates. I don't think that's representative of the normalized earnings power of Washington. So maybe you could just talk about where there's some onetime dynamics and since the quarter, you've seen West Coast cracks strengthen, particularly LA Jet. So maybe you could talk about how we should think about that asset inflecting as we move into 2025?

是的，非常感謝。或許確實建立在華盛頓的評論之上，因為那是一個非常艱難的季度，捕獲率非常低。我不認為這代表華盛頓正常化的獲利能力。所以也許您可以談談一些曾經的動態，自本季度以來，您已經看到西海岸的裂痕加劇，尤其是洛杉磯噴氣機隊。那麼，您能否談談，在邁入 2025 年之際，我們該如何看待資產的變化？

Sure, Neil. It's Will. I'll take a couple of these and maybe Shawn will add on a few. But specifically, what Shawn was calling out that's outside of our index is jet and West Coast VGO. So I think on the jet side, you're correct, we saw significant pressure on West Coast jet during the third quarter.

當然，尼爾。是威爾。我會選擇其中幾個，也許肖恩會添加一些。但具體來說，肖恩所說的不在我們的指數範圍內的是噴射機和西海岸 VGO。因此，我認為在噴射機方面，你是對的，我們在第三季度看到西海岸噴射機面臨巨大的壓力。

And I think part of this is related to overall jet balances shifting as you're seeing the West Coast refining fleet pivot. It's distillate or diesel production forged jet given the increase in R&D penetration. I think nonetheless, marginal barrel of jet still needs to be imported long haul from Asia to balance the West Coast market. So I think you're seeing that play out in the third quarter.

我認為這部分與整體噴射機平衡的變化有關，正如你所看到的西海岸煉油廠的轉變。隨著研發滲透率的提高，它是餾分油或柴油生產鍛造的噴射發動機。儘管如此，我認為仍然需要從亞洲長途進口少量噴射機來平衡西海岸市場。所以我認為你會在第三季看到這種情況。

And as you're seeing run rates come down in the fourth quarter and coinciding with my prior comment on the tightness in Jet and the Asian market that we're seeing emerge in the fourth quarter. I think those are the factors that are really impacting the ramp-up in LA jet prices and broadly West Coast jet prices.

正如您所看到的，第四季度的運行率下降了，這與我之前對 Jet 和亞洲市場緊張局勢的評論相吻合，我們看到第四季度出現了緊張局面。我認為這些是真正影響洛杉磯噴射機價格以及西海岸噴射機價格上漲的因素。

The VGO market is really more of a global phenomenon. And I think as you've seen Dangote ramp-up, you've seen a lot of excess VGO buildup in the Atlantic Basin, and that's trickling over in the Pacific Basin. As they move towards finished fuel production, I suspect that's going to change balances.

VGO 市場其實更像是一種全球現象。我認為，就像大家看到丹格特的擴張一樣，大家也看到大西洋盆地累積了大量過剩的 VGO，而這正在慢慢蔓延到太平洋盆地。隨著他們轉向成品燃料生產，我懷疑這將改變平衡。

But again, I think very dynamic and ultimately, our positioning there as a low-cost operator, both capital and operating expense as well as feedstock advantage are really the keys that we think sustain that over a long period of time. And I think there will inevitably be margin growing opportunities where we can capture them.

但我認為，最終，我們的定位是低成本營運商，資本和營運費用以及原料優勢是我們認為長期維持這一目標的關鍵。我認為，必然存在著我們可以抓住的提高利潤的機會。

Got it. Thanks, Will. And then a follow-up is, as you think about the Billings refinery, that has been impacted by some of the inventory dynamics and around asphalt. But as you think about that acquisition into 2025, can you talk about how you're seeing some of the moving pieces, whether it's WCS, normalized margins now that we've worked through those inventories, operational run rates? Just your pulse tech on that asset would be helpful. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝，威爾。然後接下來的問題是，正如您所想到的比林斯煉油廠，它受到了一些庫存動態和瀝青的影響。但是，當您考慮 2025 年的收購時，您能否談談您如何看待一些變動因素，無論是 WCS，還是現在已經處理完這些庫存後的標準化利潤率，還是營運運行率？僅針對該資產的脈衝技術就會有所幫助。謝謝。

Sure. I think overall, big picture, still remain very pleased with Billings, and I think believe in its capability to deliver mid-cycle cash flow contributions that we set out to when we underwrote the transaction. There are many moving pieces. But on the whole, I would say, seeing positive improvement on our ability to exceed our 50,000 barrel per day initial target. I think our operating expenses have been higher than our $10 per barrel target, but I think there's a path to getting back towards that once we get through the major cat cracker turnaround here in 2025.

當然。我認為，從總體上看，我仍然對比林斯非常滿意，我相信它有能力實現我們在承銷交易時設定的中期現金流貢獻。有許多活動的部分。但就整體而言，我想說，我們超越每日 50,000 桶的初始目標的能力取得了積極的進步。我認為我們的營運費用一直高於每桶 10 美元的目標，但我認為，一旦我們在 2025 年度過催化裂解裝置的重大轉折期，就有可能回到這一目標。

And then I think, ultimately, the view that we can balance heavy crude, throughput and medium and light crude throughputs to optimize transportation fuel yields versus asphalt over time, I think, remains the last leg of improving our ability to achieve and exceed the initial mid-cycle guidance we provided.

然後我認為，最終，我們可以平衡重質原油、中質原油和輕質原油的產量，以優化運輸燃料與瀝青的產量，我認為這仍然是提高我們實現並超越最初目標能力的最後一步。提供了中期指導。

Well, I'll try to sneak one more in here, which is the stock has obviously been under enormous pressure this year after a very good run. And I can't help but think there's so much embedded value in the retail business that isn't reflected in the valuation here. How do you think about helping investors understand the value of the retail brands and pulling that some of that forward?

好吧，我想在這裡再多說一點，那就是該股在經歷了今年的良好走勢後，顯然承受了巨大的壓力。我不禁想到，零售業務中有很多內在價值並未反映在估值中。您認為如何幫助投資者了解零售品牌的價值並推動其向前發展？

Yeah, absolutely. I think our retail business, as you can see, has been a significant financial contributor for us over the last five years. It's grown nicely. And I think, ultimately, is a premium multiple business to our manufacturing and distribution business. That said, I think it's quite strategic to us. We're happy with that business. And we think it has some significant growth opportunities.

是的，絕對是如此。我認為，正如您所看到的，我們的零售業務在過去五年中為我們帶來了巨大的財務貢獻。它長得很好。我認為，最終這對我們的製造和分銷業務來說是一項優質的多元化業務。話雖如此，我認為這對我們來說非常具有戰略意義。我們對這項業務很滿意。我們認為它具有一些顯著的成長機會。

And so I think what you'll see is we consider growing that business, we may look at alternatives that would improve our capabilities there. But I think as you think about the strategic benefits in the markets we operate, it has significant value to us probably above and beyond just the multiple arbitrage that you're referencing.

因此我想你會看到我們考慮發展這項業務，我們可能會尋找可以提高我們能力的替代方案。但我認為，當您考慮到我們營運的市場中的策略優勢時，它對我們來說具有重大價值，可能超出您所提到的多重套利。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Morning, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to touch on CapEx spend this year and next year. It seems like CapEx is trending a bit light. You'd have to maybe double spend from 3Q to 4Q to reach guidance -- is that what the market should expect?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我想談談今年和明年的資本支出。看起來資本支出趨勢有點輕。您可能需要從第三季到第四季增加一倍支出才能達到預期——這是市場應該期待的嗎？

And then as you think about '25 CapEx given spend on the SAP project and additional turnaround perhaps some capital spend tied to the cost reduction initiatives, can you just talk us through the year-over-year bridge to '25 spend. Thanks.

然後，當您考慮到 25 年資本支出（考慮到 SAP 項目支出和額外的周轉支出）時，也許一些資本支出與成本削減計劃有關，您能否向我們介紹一下 25 年支出的同比變化情況。謝謝。

Sure, Jason. It's Shawn. I think you're right. We expect our cash CapEx to track near the low end of our guidance for 2024, which was $220 million to $250 million. Year to date through 9/30, CapEx and turnaround was $146 million. I guess the one thing I'd point out for '24 is just keeping on our renewables project in Hawaii is more back-end weighted. So you should see some elevated CapEx in the fourth quarter.

當然，傑森。是肖恩。我認為你是對的。我們預計我們的現金資本支出將接近 2024 年指引值的低端，即 2.2 億至 2.5 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日，年初至今的資本支出和周轉金為 1.46 億美元。我想指出的一點是，對於 24 年，繼續在夏威夷開展再生能源計畫將更加重視後端。因此你應該會看到第四季的資本支出增加。

And then also keep in mind, when we put out guidance each year, we think about CapEx as incurred, not necessarily cash. And our year-to-date accrued cash CapEx is trending about $20 million higher than cash. So I wanted to point that out as you think about 2025.

也要記住，當我們每年發布指導時，我們認為的是資本支出，不一定是現金。我們今年迄今的應計現金資本支出比現金高出約 2,000 萬美元。所以當你想到 2025 年時我想指出這一點。

And then I think we're going to provide official CapEx guidance in late December like we typically do. But directionally, I would point out, we expect about $80 million to $100 million of turnaround expenditures primarily related to the Billings FCC and alky work as well as pre-spending in Hawaii and Wyoming for the 2026 events.

然後我認為我們將像往常一樣在 12 月下旬提供官方資本支出指導。但從方向上看，我想指出的是，我們預計週轉支出約為 8000 萬至 1 億美元，主要與比林斯 FCC 和 alky 工作以及夏威夷和懷俄明州為 2026 年活動進行的預支出有關。

And then we'll have about $30 million to $40 million remaining on the Hawaii renewable conversion project in '25. So again, we'll put out more specific guidance in December on maintenance, sustaining, and other growth capital.

然後我們在25年的夏威夷再生轉換計畫上還剩下大約3000萬到4000萬美元。因此，我們將在 12 月就維護、維持和其他成長資本發布更具體的指導。

Okay, thanks. And my other question is on the balance sheet and the stock has weakened following moving inventory financing on the balance sheet, and it seems like the company is trying to split out that financing in ABL versus what you consider structural debt within that term debt line item. So can you just talk about if that's kind of the right way to think about it? And why taking this approach to balance sheet management is maybe a bit better than what you had when that inventory was off balance sheet?

好的，謝謝。我的另一個問題是資產負債表，隨著資產負債表上庫存融資的轉移，股價已經走弱，似乎公司正試圖將 ABL 中的融資與你認為的定期債務項目中的結構性債務分開。那麼您能否談談這是否是正確的思考方式？為什麼採用這種資產負債表管理方法可能比庫存不在資產負債表內的方法好一些？

Sure. Yeah, I think we certainly view the ABL funding separately from term debt. We've maintained our term debt leverage target of 3 to 4 times the logistics and retail EBITDA that's been in place for multiple years. And I think we're at the low end of that range as we sit today.

當然。是的，我認為我們確實將 ABL 融資與定期債務區分開來。我們多年來一直將定期債務槓桿目標維持在物流和零售 EBITDA 的 3 到 4 倍。我認為，就目前情況而言，我們處於該範圍的低端。

On the ABL and working capital funding, this sort of solely supports our inventory management and working capital needs. And I think it's worth pointing out that over the past year, our working capital funding and really financing has decreased materially.

在 ABL 和營運資金融資方面，這類融資僅支持我們的庫存管理和營運資金需求。我認為值得指出的是，在過去的一年裡，我們的營運資金和實際融資大幅減少。

When you go back and look at the balance sheet, the intermediations would show up in current liabilities. A year ago, that was an $850 million liability. Today, as of 9/30, it's $165 million. And so, when you combine the ABL funding and the smaller S&O intermediation in Hawaii as of 9/30, we're about $175 million below our year-ago levels. So I think we've -- not only do we view the ABL funding as purely working capital funding supporting our crude purchases, the funding itself has significantly decreased over the last year.

當你回頭查看資產負債表時，中介費用會出現在流動負債中。一年前，這是8.5億美元的負債。如今，截至 9 月 30 日，該數字已達 1.65 億美元。因此，當你將 ABL 融資和截至 9 月 30 日夏威夷較小的 S&O 中介業務結合時，我們的資金比去年同期低了約 1.75 億美元。因此我認為，我們不但將 ABL 資金視為支持原油購買的純粹營運資金，而且這筆資金本身在過去一年中也大幅減少。

Great. Thanks for the answers.

偉大的。謝謝您的回答。

(Operator Instructions) Manav Gupta, UBS.

(操作員指示) Manav Gupta，瑞銀。

Yeah, I just have one question. Can you provide more details around what's your outlook for the differentials for the Hawaii region in particular? How do you see those spreads moving out in the next six to nine months?

是的，我只有一個問題。您能否提供更多詳細信息，具體說明您對夏威夷地區的差異有何看法？您認為未來六到九個月內利差將如何改變？

Sure, Manav. It's Will. I think you can see the modest reduction in our expected landed crude difference in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind that's 90-plus days lagged versus real-time market conditions. So that really reflects crude market conditions during the third quarter per se. Do you roll forward, as you've seen the curve. You've seen backwardation costs come down, seeing freight start to soften.

當然，馬納夫。是威爾。我認為您可以看到我們第四季度預期的原油到岸差異略有減少。請記住，這與實時市場情況相比有 90 多天的滯後。所以這確實反映了第三季的原油市場狀況。您是否向前滾動，正如您所看到的曲線。我們已經看到現貨溢價成本下降，運費也開始走軟。

And just big picture, you've seen kind of the physical market soften. So I would give you the directional guidance that we are seeing improvements in our landed crude differentials as you look forward. None of those are final at this point. But I think directionally, the major factors that impact our landed cost of crude are trending favorably.

從整體來看，我們已經看到實體市場有所疲軟。因此，我可以給您方向性指導，即展望未來，我們將看到到岸原油差價有所改善。目前這些都還不是最終決定。但我認為，從方向來看，影響原油到岸成本的主要因素呈現有利趨勢。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen.

TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

Yeah. Sorry, just one more for you on Hawaii. I know it benefits from product tanker rates and those have been strong in the past couple of years. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in the product tanker market quarter to date in 4Q and what you expect moving forward?

是的。抱歉，關於夏威夷我只想再說一次。我知道它受益於成品油輪運價，而且過去幾年成品油輪運價一直很強勁。您能否談談第四季度迄今為止成品油輪市場的情況以及您對未來的預期？

Sure, Jason, it's Will. I think in the fourth quarter, we've seen softening on the product tanker rate side for clean product. And ultimately, I think we're starting to see it stabilize at current levels. I'd still characterize it broadly as kind of in the probably $6 per barrel range versus call it pre COVID-type world where it was $3.50. And so I think you're still seeing elevated versus history but not near the peaks that we would have seen probably at close to $11 a barrel during a height of really some of the significant trade flow disruptions that were happening during the Russian -- initial stages of the Russian invasion.

當然，傑森，我是威爾。我認為在第四季度，我們已經看到清潔產品的成品油輪運費有所下降。最終，我認為我們開始看到它在當前水平上穩定下來。我仍然會將其大致描述為每桶 6 美元左右，而新冠疫情之前的油價為 3.50 美元。因此，我認為油價仍高於歷史水平，但還沒有達到我們在俄羅斯--初次大選期間發生的一些重大貿易流中斷高峰期間可能達到的每桶 11 美元左右的峰值。

Great, thanks for that.

太好了，謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Will Monteleone for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給威爾·蒙特萊昂 (Will Monteleone)，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, [Chad]. Our unique asset portfolio is well-positioned while delivering upside during mid- and peak-cycle conditions. Your management team is focused on improving our cost structure and executing our growth objectives to drive the enterprise forward. Thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，[查德].我們獨特的資產組合處於有利地位，能夠在中期和高峰週期期間實現上行。您的管理團隊致力於改善我們的成本結構並執行我們的成長目標以推動企業向前發展。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝您，先生。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。