Paramount Global (PARA) 2012 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the CBS Corporation third-quarter 2012 earnings release teleconference.

Today's call is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to the Executive Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Adam Townsend.

Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you.

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our third-quarter 2012 earnings call.

Joining me for today's discussion our Sumner Redstone, our Executive Chairman; Leslie Moonves, President and CEO; and Joe Ianniello, Executive Vice President and CFO.

Sumner will have opening remarks, and will turn it over to Les and Joe, who will discuss the strategic and financial results.

We will then open the call up to questions.

Please note that statements on this conference call relating to matters which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.

Risks and uncertainties are disclosed in CBS Corporation's news releases and securities filings.

A webcast of this call and the earnings release related to today's presentation can be found on the Investors section of our website at cbscorporation.com.

Reconciliations for non-GAAP financial information related to this call can be found in our earnings release or on our website.

And with that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Sumner.

Thank you, Adam.

Good afternoon, everyone.

I really want to start by thanking the good people of CBS for the tremendous effort during Hurricane Sandy.

My thoughts go out to all of those affected by the storm.

I'm really glad CBS was able to help a lot of the way.

As far as CBS's results are concerned, we have done it again -- another quarter of outstanding results on our way to another following year, and I guarantee you the momentum keeps building.

I couldn't be more pleased.

Clearly, CBS has the right strategy in place to take advantage of all the ways that this year hold for an industry-leading (technical difficulty).

I'm confident, really confident, that this success will continue in 2013 and for many, many years to come.

My confidence is in no small part due to the talented executives at CBS who make it all happen.

Simply put, Leslie and his team know how to get this done.

And so it's my great pleasure to turn this call over to my good friend and colleague, a man I frequently call a genius for the extraordinary driven way in which he has operated CBS.

And now I turn this over to Chief Executive, Les Moonves.

Thank you very much, Sumner.

Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome, especially you on the East Coast that are suffering through this nor'easter yet again.

This certainly has been a monumental couple of weeks.

Hurricane Sandy has devastated many communities in the Northeast, and ultimately affected all of us in one way or another.

We wish as quick a recovery as possible to everyone in Sandy's path.

And as a company, we will continue to help in that effort.

I would like to acknowledge the sacrifice and effort of all the CBS employees involved with the relief help during this difficult time.

I also want to take a second to thank CBS News and our local TV and radio stations for their tireless work as well.

These news outlets did what broadcasters do in times like these -- they provided essential services to people in a way that can't be done by any other medium.

And, of course, last night, we also had another historic event with the election.

It's been a difficult campaign, but hopefully, America can come together and we can now move forward.

Once again, I want to point out the outstanding efforts by our terrific team at CBS News from primaries into the wee hours of this morning.

Now on to the business at hand.

As you can see in today's release, CBS is continuing its streak of record-breaking results with all-time third-quarter records in revenue, OIBDA, EPS, and virtually all other key metrics as well.

The fact that we were able to achieve these results in an economy that is still recovering is a testament to the remarkable transformation underway at our Company.

Our base businesses continue to be extremely solid performers, and at the same time, we're growing the size of our overall revenue pie by steadily increasing our non-advertising revenue as well.

During the quarter, 44% of our revenue came from non-advertising sources, a dramatic change from the less than 30% we had just a few years ago.

And the good news is, there's still a long way to go in our evolution, and that's why we're so encouraged about what we will accomplish in 2013.

Since we spoke with you about three months ago, we've taken many significant steps to provide consistent sources of growth for the quarters and years to come.

First, we signed key re-trans deals with DirecTV, Cablevision and AT&T that, together with our Dish deal earlier this year, represents 40% of the footprint covered by our TV stations.

In total, our new re-trans deals were done on terms significantly higher than anything we've done before, and will help us get to our stated revenue goals even quicker than we had hoped.

We also signed a reverse compensation deal with one of our larger affiliate groups at significant increases as well.

Again, we used to be paying them and now they're paying us.

And as we recently said, our new target is to reach at least $1 billion of revenue from re-trans and reverse comp by 2017.

And we are confident that we will be there ahead of that.

Meanwhile, before the fall season even started, we sold our own shows into a very strong international marketplace.

This includes Elementary and Vegas, each of which went for more than $2 million per episode, making them immediately profitable franchises for us.

And we sold the CW's Beauty and the Beast, another CBS Studios production, for more than $1.5 million an episode as well.

We also signed a series of new streaming deals that, again, are additive to the overall revenue picture.

These included a new agreement announced this week with Hulu Plus for domestic streaming of our library content, as well as new deals with Netflix International in the UK, Canada, Latin America, as well as in Scandinavia.

Once again, we're taking advantage of all the new ways that people want to consume our content all over the world.

So, from re-trans to reverse comp, syndication to streaming, all of these key revenue opportunities are growing as we said they would.

Plus, we continue to get solid performance out of our core business.

In short, we're doing exactly what we told you we'd do.

And as a result, we've just produced record third-quarter results.

We're going to produce record results for the full-year 2012 as well.

And we set up the Company to perform even better in 2013 and for a long, long time after that as well.

Today, I'm going to give you some more details about our third-quarter results, then I'm going to discuss a few of the operating highlights across our businesses.

And after that, I'll turn it over to Joe for his remarks, and then we'll be happy to take your questions.

Once again, we set records in virtually all key financial categories.

These includes revenues -- revenue, which grew 2% from last year to $3.4 billion; OIBDA up 7% to $898 million; operating income up 10% to $771 million; and adjusted EPS, which was up 30% to $0.65.

So you can see that we have taken single-digit revenue growth, and turned it into healthy double-digit profit growth and even better EPS.

And again, these were all records for us.

Plus, as we continue to build more steady and recurring revenue streams, we are also successfully containing costs.

And nowhere is that better reflected than in our OIBDA margin, which at 26%, was also a record for us.

We continue to bring in healthy levels of free cash flow too.

We see no better use of our excess cash than buying back our stock and increasing our dividend.

Going forward, as we continue to generate cash, I am focused on looking for opportunities to increase both of these.

Now, let's take a look at our Company's performance in each of our businesses, starting with entertainment.

CBS continues to be the most watched network on television.

We once again have more top 10 shows than all of the other networks combined, and we currently lead our nearest competitor by more than 3 million viewers per night.

We have the number one comedy with the Big Bang Theory; the number one drama with NCIS; the number one news magazine in 60 Minutes; and our two new dramas, Vegas and Elementary, are the top two new shows of the season.

So, we feel very good about our competitive position, which is improving week after week.

Meanwhile, this was clearly an unusual start to the season, with most networks ratings all over the place.

There are several factors at work here.

First and foremost, people are watching more programming than ever, but they are increasingly timeshifting that content through the DVR streaming and Video on Demand.

Nielsen is doing a good job of finding ways to measure this viewing, but not all of it is captured yet.

Comps are difficult because of a number of factors, including Debates in four consecutive weeks of the new season; we now have the NFL on Thursday nights; and on CBS last year, we had an extraordinary start to the season on Monday night with the debut of Ashton Kutcher on Two And A Half Men.

As a result, these early numbers that you're seeing are atypical.

We fully expect as the season goes on, and when the season ends, we will once again win in viewers in 25 to 54, and be right there in 18 to 49 as well.

Again, the most significant development we are seeing is the increased levels of viewing via the DVR streaming and Video on Demand.

This is a good thing for us.

It means that more people are watching our programming in the situations where there used to be scheduling conflicts.

But it also means that you have to be more savvy when reading the ratings these days.

It now takes more time to determine the true performance of a show and, in fact, even a network.

As we look at DVR numbers, we're seeing tremendous lift for many of the top shows on television.

In fact, CBS has 11 of the top 20 DVR-lifted shows.

During the C3 window, many of our shows are being lifted by as many as 3 million and 4 million viewers.

And on top of that, our DVR numbers for these shows increased by nearly another 30% when we look at seven days of DVR viewing.

As we move forward, we will make it a priority to get paid for all of the viewing that is going on across our shows, including DVR viewing beyond C3.

This represents a significant opportunity for us that is still in the very early stages.

Just for some perspective on this, several years ago, we told you that we would monetize, re-trans and reverse comp in ways that would change our industry.

There were many skeptics.

Clearly, we have delivered on that commitment.

You should now have full confidence that monetizing all of our viewing is a priority for us, and will be a whole new part of our overall growth strategy in the quarters to come.

Plus, there is significant upside in terms of the revenue we can generate from streaming through players like Netflix and Amazon, and all the new companies that are coming on the scene.

We have options to extend our current deals, and we have new players looking to license our content, as we speak.

In addition, we are considering, for the first time, opportunities to license past seasons of current CBS and Showtime programming.

As you know, we've been very careful about this, and we are now confident that streaming these shows can represent significant incremental new high-margin revenue for us in 2013 and 2014 too.

As we do this, we are fully confident that CBS Television Network will continue to dominate.

Once again, Network Television continues to have the biggest audiences anywhere, and CBS continues to be number one without any make-good issues whatsoever.

And scattered demands remains very strong and it's, in fact, now building.

Yes, our pacing in network advertising is accelerating, as we speak.

And as we head into the second half of the season, our momentum will only be built.

Within a four-week period in Q1, in primetime, we will have the AFC Championship, the Super Bowl, and the Grammys.

Conservatively speaking, we will have 170 million incremental viewers watching CBS during this time.

We will obviously get a big ratings boost when we broadcast these events.

And we will also have the world's best promotional platform to support our overall programming line-up for the rest of the 2013 season.

And speaking of the Super Bowl, most of our inventory is already sold at extremely strong pricing.

Spots have gone for north of $4 million for 30 seconds.

And in New York alone, we sold a spot on WCBS for just shy of $1 million.

Just think of that -- $1 million for a local spot in one market.

Pretty incredible.

So, as you'd expect, the Super Bowl, and the NFL overall, continues to be an extremely hot ticket.

As we look ahead to 2013, we also have a very strong run of syndication releases to monetize -- The Good Wife, NCIS Los Angeles, Blue Bloods, and Hawaii Five-0 will all hit the books within the next two years, with two of these shows being sold in 2013, and the other two in '14.

And looking further down the road, we expect to replicate this process with Elementary and Vegas as well.

Having the best content is also the key to our success at Showtime.

Since our last call, Homeland became the first show in nearly 20 years to win the Emmy award for lead actor, lead actress, best writing, and best drama all in the same year -- a remarkable feat for a freshman series.

This show has unprecedented buzz and has picked up where it left off last year in terms of ratings.

In fact, both Homeland, as well as Dexter, are up over last year's strong numbers.

And this past week, they both had their highest ratings ever.

What's most important about the success of these shows is their ability to drive subscriber growth.

And Showtime has now reached 22 million subs.

The conversations with MSOs are a whole lot easier when you have a show like Homeland in your arsenal.

Going forward, Showtime will be launching two new dramas, and we have ownership in both of them; plus, the production team behind 60 Minutes will be launching a new sports magazine on Showtime called 60 Minutes Sports in January, as well.

By the way, that's what I call synergy -- CBS News, CBS Sports, and Showtime all working together.

In publishing, digital sales now represent more than 20% of Simon & Schuster's business.

And that percentage is growing year after year.

And as you can see in our results, we're benefiting from the favorable economics of eBooks with a publishing margin that has now reached 19%.

Plus, Simon & Schuster continues to release new successful titles all the time.

So far this year, we've had more than 276 New York Times bestsellers, with 32 of them making it to number one.

Turning to our local businesses, as I said earlier, this has been a very active campaign season, from the Presidency to all the Congressional races, to the many prop initiatives that were on the ballot in California.

An unprecedented amount of money was spent this year.

All told, we set a new record for the most dollars ever in a presidential election year.

And more so than in the past, the dollars came in during the fourth quarter rather than the third, so you'll see the benefit of that on our next call.

In addition, automotive, which is our biggest category, continues to be very strong.

And TV station pacing is accelerating overall.

Meanwhile, our television stations continues to have success in the very lucrative late-night news timeslot, fueled by the strength of the CBS Television Network, and by our 10 o'clock shows where we win on just about every night.

During Premiere Week, 12 of our major market stations ranked first or strong second in this time period.

In fact, WCBS in New York had its highest late news rating since 2009; and WBBM in Chicago had its best ratings in eight years.

In radio, we took a significant step in our major market strategy with the acquisition of 101.9, which now gives us another strong signal in the nation's number one market.

It has been renamed WFAN-FM, and is now the FM home for what is already the number one sports radio station in the country.

This new station will also be a key part of the CBS Sports Radio Network that will be launching nationwide in January.

Thinking of sports, the Summer Olympics helped drive strong results at our outdoor international business in the third quarter.

Even with the challenging European economy, our International division posted a double-digit revenue increase.

And in the Americas, our US billboards and displays business pulled in another strong quarter and continues to grow.

So, as you can see, we have turned in another terrific quarter, with record results across the board.

This is a direct result of the strategic steps we have taken to transform CBS, as well as the blocking and tackling of our industry-leading core businesses.

After we post record results for the full-year 2012, 2013 will be even better.

Let me tell you specifically why we know that.

Ratings and advertising will grow.

We had the strongest possible kickstart to the year with the three major primetime events that I mentioned.

These broadcasts will give us a huge boost in advertising.

And thanks to the promotional platform they will provide, our ratings in the quarter after that will benefit as well.

We are very confident that our primetime ratings will continue to improve.

As the season goes on, we will finish the season on top and very strong in every single one of the key demos.

Next, we will increasingly monetize all of our ratings and all of our viewing.

Industry measurement is catching up with the changing habits of content consumption, and this will be to our benefit.

Again, this development represents significant upside for us.

Syndication will thrive next year as well.

We have the four big dramas I told you about coming in '13 and '14, and we keep replenishing our pipeline with CBS and Showtime content for future syndication sales domestically and internationally.

We'll also have more streaming deals that will be done in 2013.

As I mentioned, we're now considering exercising our options to add library seasons of current shows into our streaming deals.

This could have a major impact on our results next year.

Finally, we have three more re-trans deals coming up in 2013 that, together, represent another 20% of our station's footprint.

These, along with additional reverse comp deals coming up next year, will drive us towards our goal of at least $1 billion by 2017, if not before.

And, of course, next year and every year, we will continue to manage our business in a way that delivers maximum shareholder value to our investors.

That's what we've always promised to all of you, and that's what we do.

Thank you.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Joe.

Thanks, Les.

And good afternoon, everyone.

Today, I'll provide some more details about our third quarter, and then I'll talk about what we're seeing in the fourth quarter and 2013.

Let's start with our third quarter results.

As Les highlighted, CBS's record results this quarter once again demonstrate the benefits of the steps we are taking to grow our revenue with a more diverse mix.

As we continue this shift, you can see that the overall financial performance of our Company is becoming less cyclical and more profitable.

For the quarter, as you heard, we delivered record revenue of $3.4 billion -- an increase of 2%.

Let's take a look on how that breaks down.

Content licensing and distribution was up 8%, and affiliate and subscription fees were up 12%.

The continued growth in these contractual revenue streams more than offset lower summer advertising dollars.

The progress we have made in growing our recurring revenue sources has never been more apparent than this quarter, with advertising accounting for just 56% of total revenue.

As we've said before, this revenue mix may shift a bit during the next two quarters, as we gain more political and Super Bowl advertising dollars.

But we expect the overall trend towards more non-advertising revenue to continue.

Also, during the quarter, as Leslie said, our continued focus on cost controls, along with our high-margin revenue growth, translated into record profits and margins.

Our OIBDA margin of 26% was our best ever.

Adjusted EPS in the third quarter came in at a record $0.65, up 30%.

This excludes a loss of $0.05 per share on the early extinguishment of debt that we told you about during our last call.

The story for our year-to-date performance is very consistent with our third-quarter results, with records across nearly all of our key financial metrics.

This includes year-to-date revenue of $10.8 billion, up 3%, with growth in every single segment.

Year-to-date OIBDA of $2.6 billion, up 13%.

Year-to-date operating income of $2.2 billion, up 16%; and year-to-date adjusted EPS of $1.83, up 35%.

Now let's turn to our operating segments.

Entertainment revenue for the third quarter was $1.7 billion, up 3%, driven by growth in global content licensing and higher re-trans fees.

Entertainment OIBDA of $384 million was down $21 million.

This decline was due in part to the timing of P&A costs for two film releases this fall versus no releases a year ago.

In our Cable Network segment, revenue for the quarter was $436 million, up 4%, driven by continued steady growth in rates and subscribers.

Cable OIBDA increased 12% to $227 million, driven by revenue growth and a benefit of increased ownership in original Showtime content.

Turning to publishing, third-quarter revenue was $210 million, down 5% because of a decline in the sales of traditional print books.

However, more profitable digital sales were up 20% for the quarter and now represent 21% of total publishing revenue.

Publishing OIBDA of $39 million was up 3% for the quarter, demonstrating the improved profitability of this business as it shifts towards a more efficient distribution platform.

This was also the reason that publishing's OIBDA margin expanded from 17% to 19%.

In local broadcasting, third-quarter revenue of $661 million was up 1%.

TV station revenue was up 7% and radio revenue was down 5%.

Political dollars definitely shifted from the third quarter into the fourth, as campaigns chose to spend their dollars closer to the election.

Local broadcasting OIBDA was $213 million, up 16% for the quarter, and the OIBDA margin grew 4 percentage points to 32%.

The expanded margin was due to the higher margin revenue, lower programming costs, and the benefit of a new long-term music royalty agreement.

And finally, outdoor revenue for the quarter was $486 million, up 2% on a reported basis.

On a constant dollar basis, revenue grew 5%, led by Europe, which was up 14%, driven by the Olympic Games in London.

In the US, our billboard and display businesses were also up 5%.

Outdoor OIBDA of $99 million increased 24% in the quarter, also driven by the Olympics.

In addition, this business continues to benefit from improved operating efficiencies, as well as the elimination of unfavorable contracts.

You can see the results of these efforts in our outdoor OIBDA margin, which expanded 300 basis points to 20%.

Turning to cash flow and our balance sheet.

For the quarter, free cash flow came in at $163 million compared to $29 million last year.

Both these figures were affected by special items, including this year's debt refinancing and the discretionary pension funding from a year ago.

Year-to-date, free cash flow was $1.3 billion.

Also for the quarter, you can see interest expense declined to $95 million from $110 million a year ago, reflecting the benefit of the debt refinancings we did this year.

In addition, we remain consistent with the accelerated pace of our share repurchase program in the third quarter, using $300 million of our authorization to retire 8.6 million shares.

We have $2.8 billion remaining on the program as of September 30.

And also, we had $947 million of cash on-hand at the end of the third quarter as well.

Now let me give you a few observations about what we see in Q4.

We're seeing accelerating trends across the local broadcasting segment, which is pacing to be up double digits for the fourth quarter.

This is led by our TV stations, which are pacing to be up 20-plus-percent, driven by the surge in political spending.

Outdoor America is pacing up low-single digits, offset by declines in Europe because of the continued economic challenges in that region.

And at the CBS Television Network, scatter trends remain healthy, with fourth-quarter pricing up in the mid-teens over the most recent upfront.

So, with 2012 set to be a record year, we are focused on delivering an even better 2013.

Les told you about the key factors that will drive our results next year.

Let me tell you where you're going to see them in our key types of revenue.

In content licensing and distribution, we will see a significant increase in revenue as two of our hit shows go into first cycle syndication.

Streaming revenue will also benefit from renewals and extensions on existing deals.

So, this year's streaming revenue will be bigger than last year, and next year's will be even bigger than this year's.

In affiliate and subscription fees, we know we'll see continued growth in cable affiliate revenue, re-tran, and reverse compensation.

Between the re-trans deals coming up and the reverse compensation we expect next year, we will approach the halfway mark to that $1 billion in revenue that we spoke about earlier.

And in advertising, as you know, we are set to benefit from the Super Bowl, which will hit both our entertainment and local broadcasting segments.

In addition, we will benefit from higher pricing as a result of our upfront CPM increases.

And we will have 17 more hours of primetime inventory in 2013 that we didn't have this year, due to the political coverage -- not to mention an increased share of summer ad dollars without an Olympics in 2013.

So, all three key types of revenue -- content licensing and distribution, affiliate and subscription fees, and advertising -- will be strong next year.

At the same time, we will continue to be vigilant about our costs, as we always look for ways to improve productivity.

And we will also be improving our bottom line from lower interest expense, lower depreciation and amortization expense, and lower shares outstanding.

And, of course, capital returns to our shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividends will remain our key priority.

So, what you can expect from CBS in 2013 is more of the same and then some.

And with that, Gwen, we can open the line for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Benjamin Swinburne, Morgan Stanley.

Les, I want to ask you about the TV viewing numbers we're seeing, since obviously, everyone is focused on them, not just for the industry, but for CBS.

And the three areas that I think are sources of leakage in the Nielsen ratings would be VOD, where the ad loads aren't the same; DVR viewing after three days; and then sort of streaming on players like TV.com and now your Hulu Plus deal.

How do you address all those?

And how quickly can that get taken care of?

Because it's obviously something that's impacting the business.

And then I have one follow-up for Joe.

Yes, clearly, Ben, we've been heading in this direction for a long time.

We have seen this coming DVR usage has been growing, and obviously, streaming is sort of pretty new, as is VOD.

And some of it we're getting paid for.

The -- look, the majority of DVR viewing is in the first three days, which is good.

And we're pushing to get it to be to seven days.

And we think that's going to happen within a relatively short period of time, as well as that.

Streaming, once again, we are getting paid for it on CBS.com; we're making all these deals.

And VOD is going to get there as well.

So, as I said, it's a different way of looking at our world, but once again, when you add all these elements together, financially, it is a positive for us.

And once again, you have to stop -- people have to stop looking at overnight ratings.

Because it's really a very, very different ballgame than it ever was.

And once again, we're encouraged because more and more people are absorbing content, and we're going to get paid more and more.

Sure.

And then, Joe, just on a separate topic, you mentioned depreciation and amortization.

It's down in the quarter year-on-year.

When I look at the cash flow statement, your CapEx is running at like $150 million year-to-date versus D&A of $390 million.

And I think everyone knows CBS generates more free cash flow than GAAP earnings.

How long does it take for that to close?

And should it close all the way?

Yes, it will definitely close, Ben.

It will take a few years, because when you depreciate some, it's usually -- our useful life is kind of on a five to seven-year average lifecycle.

So we've been at this for a few years now.

So I think, over the coming years, you'll see that continually step down.

I think we do kind of give some kind of forward disclosure in our 10-Q and 10- K filings to help you, but it will take a couple of years.

But it's going to converge down with our kind of lower capital spending over the years.

Thanks a lot.

Good.

Thanks, Ben.

Gwen, let's take the next question, please.

Jessica Reif Cohen, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

I have two questions.

Is there any limit what you can put through Netflix?

Any other SVOD players?

I mean, besides the CBS shows, are there other shows that can go in?

You mean besides the CBS-produced shows?

Meaning -- no, no, no, like -- no, no, not the CBS.

I meant like Showtime shows or besides the network shows.

(multiple speakers) But you mentioned library.

Yes, I mean, Showtime actually was one of the first precursors.

They had Dexter on Netflix before we even made our CBS deal.

So, yes, we have deals in place potentially down the line for shows from Showtime, from CBS, and the CW.

Okay.

And then (multiple speakers) --

(multiple speakers) So and then once again, the only deals we've made so far are about 7% of our library content.

And then we just added CSI Miami to that mix, since we took it off the air in May.

So, frankly, the sky is the limit in terms of availability and our ability to grow our deal with Netflix.

So, as the second part of that question but not my second question, to be clear (multiple speakers) -- how high can -- (laughter) I'm just sneaking in another one -- how high can entertainment margins go?

Well, Jessica, look, we're definitely investing in content as we're owning more and more of the content.

So, clearly, it builds, and you can see that kind of as an overall company, but just look at the overall margin.

Again, I always like to focus people on looking at margins more on a year-to-year basis, year-to-date basis, as opposed to a quarter.

But clearly, these are high margin revenue dollars that will continue to expand.

Okay, my (multiple speakers) --

Now you can ask your second question.

Now I can ask my real second.

Thank you very much.

So the second question is, when you guys talked about -- both of you, Les and Joe, you talked about 2013 drivers -- didn't really hear outdoor or radio being a driver.

Can you talk about the long-term strategy?

Do you really need to hang on?

And if you don't need to hang on to them, can you talk structurally what you guys are thinking of?

Yes, well, I (multiple speakers) --

(multiple speakers) Go ahead, Joe.

-- Jessica -- look, I think from a radio perspective, it's absolutely producing content.

You know, Sports and News, it's key to the overall CBS strategy.

We have a large market focus.

So I think it fits very nicely.

Obviously, we like the margins.

Obviously, these brands are going online and it's living outside of just the local region.

So, we're very bullish on Radio -- and as well as Outdoor.

So, Outdoor, we know there's lots of interest in Outdoor.

We understand what some of our peers are doing.

We're definitely considering all options for it.

But you know again, there is a lot of focus on it because I think everybody sees the value that we see.

Thank you.

Great, thank you.

Thanks, Jessica.

Gwen, next question, please.

David Bank, RBC Capital Markets.

Two questions.

I guess the first one is, with respect to your commentary on selling current series' past seasons into online distribution potentially, what was your thought process there?

What made you arrive at this point today where you think you might be ready to do it?

And more importantly, what do you think the monetization of that kind of content would be?

Do you think it's similar to the kind of levels you're seeing in traditional syndication for that same kind of content?

And the second question is, can you walk us through two things with respect to sort of ratings and ad growth?

The first is, the C-3 ratings progression over the first couple of weeks of the season; so have we seen improvement in ratings?

And, as a progression, do we expect to see that continue?

And second, can you talk a little bit about maybe ad revenue pacings at the network for the quarters, just to give us a sense of -- we see these ratings numbers and I don't think -- I think the correlation between ratings and revenue is a little bit lacking.

And so maybe you could kind of help us see that a little more clearly.

Thanks.

All right, David.

You know, in terms of, you know -- it is definitely a shift for us.

And you know what?

We've looked at the results from Netflix and Amazon, and we're getting more and more information from streaming on our own sites.

And in certain cases, we have come to the conclusion that streaming of previous seasons of certain shows will actually be of benefit to it, as it has been with syndication, as we saw with NCIS.

When it went into syndication, ratings went up; Big Bang, ratings went up.

So we're now taking a look, and as you know, Netflix really likes -- would like to do that.

And we have deals in place for previous seasons at very good rates.

So, it is looking like it is very attractive, obviously, for the bottom line, as well as we think it will be a help to the network, not a hindrance to do that.

What that could mean?

It could mean tens of millions of dollars.

You know, it can be the equivalent or even better than or part of syndication.

In other words, like we do internationally, you take a show and you look at slicing it and dicing it in very, very different ways than you ever did before.

And it's great that now you have 12 revenue streams instead of just basic fastball down the middle with syndication.

Regarding the C-3 progression, going to your second question, we -- absolutely.

As I said, there are a lot of factors that influence the start of the season.

There was a lot of political things going on and we have seen it grow.

Frankly, the numbers have grown from that.

And C-3 is becoming a bigger part of our universe.

And when you see these numbers, as I said -- 3 million, 4 million viewers added to a number; 1.5 points added to an 18 to 49 number, they are substantial and they are growing, and more and more people are doing that.

And that's especially potent when it comes to the 10 o'clock shows.

Because 10 o'clock shows, people go to sleep but they may watch that 10 o'clock show the next day.

And we're finding it -- you know, you look at Monday night, and you see there are three 10 o'clock shows that are actually working on all three networks.

And they all are benefited greatly by a C-3 number, which is very high.

And that's Hawaii Five-0 for us, Revolution and Castle on ABC.

And in terms of the ad pacing, once again, as Joe mentioned, we're seeing mid-teen growth in the scatter market.

Add that to the high-single digits that we got in the upfront, and you're looking at substantial growth numbers as we head into the fourth and then the first quarter, which is why we're optimistic and why we stated our pacing is actually growing.

And it's getting more and more intense.

So, you know, looking forward, the rest of the season should be terrific.

So Les, ad revenue you're expecting to be positive in the fourth quarter at the Network?

Is that what you're saying?

Yes.

Yes.

Great, thank you very much, guys.

Thanks, David.

Next question, please.

Anthony DiClemente, Barclays.

(multiple speakers) I had two questions.

One is, I just wanted to hear a little bit about the new re-trans deals that you talked about in your comments.

I think you said AT&T, DirecTV, Cablevision.

What is kind of the timing of when those start to hit?

I'm just wondering as we kind of model out re-trans and reverse comp, how that -- what the cadence of those new revenues look like.

And is there any point where we should see more of an acceleration?

And then just a little bit -- anything on color on background on how those conversations go, and kind of what those deals look like?

And then my second question is, just on this kind of new topic today on current release sales of your content.

Just to clarify, what would be the monetization vehicle?

Would it be -- would those be kind of lumpy, one-time content revenues?

Or would that be like a revenue share, for example, like with a Hulu?

Because I do remember one of the issues on that was, your sales force and being able to -- if it is selling advertising against current leased programming, the idea of relinquishing the sales process to an online distributor, I'm just wondering how that would all work?

So, if you could comment on those two, I'd appreciate it.

I'll give you a little color on the re-trans and then Joe will go into the number.

Look, we have a lot of power.

The NFL gives us a lot of power.

In addition, as I mentioned, having Showtime is great.

So, the conversations were heated, they were intense.

But we're happy we didn't have to pull our signal and cost ourselves any money.

Did Jimmy Dolan and I deal directly?

Yes.

Quite a bit.

Quite a bit, and it was a good conversation.

As you can imagine, there was wrangling.

The same thing in all the conversations.

But we came out very well.

Joe, why don't you talk about (multiple speakers) --?

Yes, and Anthony, when they hit is usually, again, as soon as we sign the deals, they're usually effective immediately.

So, there's -- obviously, we can't talk about anything specific, but obviously, we see the values of long-term deals and there are escalators in them.

And as far as, you know, the past seasons of current shows, for instance, with CSI or something like that that's been sold through, yes, the revenue recognition does get lumpy, but usually, again, it's over periods of time.

And then they have to kind of re-up to extend those.

So again, it's kind of continued.

So we look at it more as an annuity, but it does get a little lumpy in the way the accounting rules work.

Okay.

And then just online ad sales against your current release programming.

Can you just talk about that?

We have -- you know, obviously, we put them up on CBS.com and the shows that we own, and (multiple speakers) --

Yes, and we monetize them at CPM rates higher than -- you know, as high as the Networks.

So (multiple speakers) there's people -- new ad loads.

And with full ad loads.

Yes.

So we're fully monetizing on it.

Yes, and that's growing every day.

Okay, thanks, guys.

Thanks, Anthony.

Next question, please.

Michael Morris, Davenport & Company.

Two questions.

First one is, on your advertising trends, at dayparts other than prime, we have a lot of focus on prime and the ratings there.

I think that that's only about half your ad revenue.

I'm curious as to, number one, sports in the NFL.

Are you seeing the growth?

Are you seeing better growth at the NFL than you're seeing in kind of these primetime ad pacings you're talking about?

Also, we're seeing some more NFL content in prime with the later starts on the East Coast, and the AFC Championship Game in prime later this year.

So if you could comment on the sports, and also just kind of daytime news, what you're seeing there.

And then second, just over on these streaming deals, it's a hot topic for us, obviously.

But how much of the streaming revenue is coming specifically from Netflix as you look forward, and you say 2013 is bigger than 2012?

And really, the root of my question is, there's some concern that at some point, Netflix can't continue to increase their content payments.

Your thoughts there would be appreciated.

Well, I'll do a little bit with the first part and I'll let Joe do the streaming.

In terms of sports, it's still the hottest ticket in town specifically the NFL.

It's selling very well.

At every single network, our ratings are up a couple of points from a sensational year last year.

You know, you're not seeing -- that's the part of the universe that streaming doesn't come into play.

Live sporting events is still huge, and yes, the pacing is even better, far better, than it is even for primetime.

So we're very excited and we wish the NFL lasted for 32 weeks instead of 17.

You know, and once again, having the AFC championship and the Super Bowl, we're able to put together some pretty compelling packages.

Daytime pacing, once again, it's -- I wouldn't call it as robust as prime, but it's doing extremely well.

We make -- once again, our daytime programming makes significantly more profit than it made a couple of years ago.

News -- once again, it's been a very active season.

And the good news for both of our key news franchises, Scott Pelley's numbers are up considerably and the morning is up a lot as well.

So we're really pleased with what we're doing there, you know?

Mike, as far as the streaming, obviously, we have deals with Netflix, Amazon, Hulu Plus, and a lot of others that are talking about the marketplace.

I think what we -- rest assured is that consumers want to consume content this way.

So I think it's going to find its home.

Obviously, we look at Netflix's financials as well as when we do deals with them, but they're very successful, and they have a huge install base.

So there's lots of value there.

But again, I think it's really being driven by consumer demand.

And so, this putting the prior seasons of currently-on-the-air shows, that's not just a Netflix type of arrangement?

That's across a number of these partners or is (multiple speakers) --?

Yes, we can do that again across the board.

Again (multiple speakers) --

(multiple speakers) The great news is, all these deals are not exclusive.

But once again, we're not going to take the entire schedule and put it on.

We're going to pick and choose the shows that we think, A, are already sold into syndication, or B, we think that could help us in terms of raising the ratings on the Network.

So -- but once again, when you look at what we have on the air and all the seasons that are not streamed, that could be a sizable amount of money over the next couple of years.

Great.

Thanks, guys.

Thanks, Mike.

Gwen, let's take the next question.

David Miller, Caris and Company.

I just have one question for Les.

Les, you mentioned the ratings issues.

You mentioned sort of the NFL Network, the debates, DVR viewing, et cetera, as somewhat of a culprit here.

I'm surprised I didn't hear you say anything about sampling of new shows across the other networks, and -- or the other broadcast networks, I mean.

And the reason I cite that is because I think it was the fall of '08 -- could have been the fall of '07 -- but I think it was the fall of '08, where no one really remembers this, because the fall of '08, we obviously had other problems; the world was basically ending.

But if I recall in the fall of '08, there was a lot of sampling of other new shows on ABC, NBC, Fox, et cetera.

And eventually, viewership kind of came back to you at around this time of year.

It was around early November.

Are you seeing that at all?

It seems like you might be, just especially in light of your commentary about the strength of the scatter market.

Thanks very much.

Yes, I mean, look, the early part of the year is always about sampling.

You know?

People have spent the whole summer, some of them spent the Olympics promoting new shows, and people want to try them out.

This past week, we had our highest rated week ever.

This is the first -- this is a week that we were comparably better than a year ago in just about every demo -- I think in every demo.

So what happens is they do go out and sample, and guess what's winning Wednesday night at 10 o'clock in every single demo?

Year 13 of CSI by a lot.

Okay?

Against two new shows; two new shows heavily promoted.

So you know what?

The stability of CBS's coming to the forefront much more now than in the opening couple of weeks of the season.

So I didn't bring it up because it's sort of the same thing every year.

Okay.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, David.

Great.

Thank you.

Gwen, next caller?

Laura Martin, Needham & Company.

Great numbers, guys.

Congratulations.

Thanks, Laura.

On film -- could you give us an update on film and remind me what the allocation of capital is towards the film business in 2013, Les?

And then for you, Joe, Fox was kind enough to tell us that political advertising in the third quarter was $40 million positive swing for their stations.

And I know it sounds like most of yours is coming in the fourth quarter.

But could you size for us over the course of 2012 what you think the political is going to come in at -- or came in at, actually?

Thanks, guys.

Yes.

Laura, on film, we will have released four movies this year.

'13, it looks like there's going to be three.

Once again, all these are very low-budget releases.

Once again, not a great deal of exposure that really affects anything.

As Joe said, look, we have P&A on two movies at -- within a three-week period of time, and last year we had zero.

So it did affect that, but there is -- it's really very minimal.

And Laura, on political, just to give you some context.

In 2008, the last presidential, we generated $140 million total over the full year.

We're going to significantly beat that.

So -- and again, more of that than normal is coming in the fourth quarter.

So we're still tabulating those dollars as we speak here today.

Thanks, guys.

Great.

Thanks, Laura.

Let's go to the next question.

Doug Mitchelson, Deutsche Bank.

Les, I wanted to take a step back and shift the ratings discussion to TV schedule management.

You know I agree with you regarding all the unusual factors so far this season.

So let's say CBS now or at some point in the future does have quite a few aging shows.

Does the breath of strength across your schedule go from sort of an important advantage to a disadvantage?

In sort of two areas.

The first challenge is you have a profit incentive to keep shows on the air, right?

Even when the ratings decline, because you might make a lot of money on those shows -- international, syndication.

Plus a lot of your -- any shows you have in decline might still be higher rated than your competitors' shows, right?

And that really is the second challenge, you've got so few open spots to try and launch new hit shows, if you get to the point where you need to be ramping development, maybe you need more than one or two hit shows a year; you need two or three, or three or four.

You have a lack of shelf space.

So I know it's strange if we ask if you were too successful in the past, but I'm curious (multiple speakers) how would you approach those?

(multiple speakers) I never mind being called too successful.

That's okay.

(laughter) No, it's -- look.

Scheduling still does matter.

And yes, is it harder to get on our schedule than everybody else?

Absolutely.

As a matter of fact, last year, when we canceled Unforgettable, one of the papers said -- which was true -- CBS just canceled a show that was higher-rated than any other show at one other to-be-named-later network.

You know?

Now we canceled it, and ironically, Sony came back to us and we're now putting it on this summer.

We're going to be doing more summer programming.

Plus, you know what?

Our development costs basically are the same year after year.

We really don't cut way back.

The only year we cut way back was the year of the strike.

So, we will keep that going.

And once again, we have always pulled our shows off a year early.

I could have kept CSI Miami on, but we pulled it off to make room for a Vegas or an Elementary, and that's what we did.

We took CSI Miami.

We moved Mentalist from Thursday to Sunday, and we put Elementary in there, which looks like it's going to be a brand-new hit franchise for us.

You know?

So, look.

I still look at the schedule every day.

I'm still paying attention to it.

We still are in full-scale development, and I think you have to look at the television universe in totality.

Network ratings, profitability are all important, but as you know, we like having high ratings.

So if I try to put a fine point on it, Les, would you say at this point that you're worried at all that you have too many shows that are aging at the same time?

Or do you still feel like this is an overall healthy schedule?

Wait -- we have the two highest rated new shows of last year, in Person of Interest and 2 Broke Girls -- highest rated new drama, highest rated new comedy.

I think we have two keepers from this year.

So our schedule is still filled with a lot of young shows mixed in with some of the -- Blue Bloods is only three years old; Hawaii Five-0 is only three years old.

NCIS LA is four years old.

So there is a lot -- you know, Good Wife, four years old.

There is a lot of youth in this schedule.

Just because we have Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, it doesn't mean that we don't have the up-and-coming young rookies too.

Great.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Doug.

Gwen, let's go to the next caller.

Tuna Amobi, S&P.

Great.

Thank you for being kind enough to take the questions.

So, one for Joe and one for Les.

So in regards to the Olympics, Joe, it seems like it was a net benefit to the Company, given at least in the Outdoor segment.

Can you perhaps comment on any impact on the network and how -- what changes that you made there to mitigate the impact there?

And for Les, I was wondering if you could comment about the margin around ad hopping?

I guess specifically, are there any scenarios where you might consider trading off advertising revenues, if you felt that you could be adequately compensated by PayTV affiliates that are pushing such ads keeping functionalities, given particularly that your business mix is positively moving in that direction anyways?

So any comments there would be helpful.

Thank you.

Okay.

Okay, good.

(multiple speakers)

(multiple speakers) Tuna, I'll start with your Olympic.

Clearly, the International -- our International Outdoor business benefited by that, we were the premier outdoor advertiser there.

So, obviously, with the weak macro backdrop, we were able to post those results.

We don't break out specific numbers.

And as far as here in the states, it was highly rated, you know, here.

It generated some mad dollars, but good for that.

And again, we'll have an easy comp next year, and we're focused on this season and going forward.

(multiple speakers) So not possible -- so quite a side impact on the network job assuming, right?

Tuna, it's hard to say exactly what the ad dollars shipped would have been in dollars in the third quarter.

Yes, I mean, look.

Did it affect our ratings?

Sure.

But not substantial, and we've anticipated it.

And it happens every couple of years they have the Olympics, and no big deal, you know?

And on your second question, regarding the ad hopping, the fact of the matter is, we produce content and we need to get paid for it.

I suppose if Dish wanted to pay us $5.00 a sub we might consider letting them do that.

So, that's -- that would be the alternative to that.

But you know, under the current circumstances, they can't eliminate our ads.

Thank you.

Thanks, Tuna.

And Gwen, let's take our last question, please.

We'll take our last question from Alan Gould with Evercore Partners.

I've got a couple of questions.

First on the re-trans deals, you said 40% of your footprint has been done this year.

Can you give us the average length of those re-trans deals?

And Joe, you did mention escalators.

Are those escalators inflation?

Or are they significantly greater than inflation?

Well, Alan, I'd say inflation isn't too high, so we don't like currently inflation.

So we never put inflation.

And we prescribe what the rates are.

We don't like to rely on somebody else to determine what increases the revenue we have.

What was your other question?

What do you --?

Well, can you give the average length of those four deals?

(multiple speakers)

(multiple speakers) -- length of time -- look.

We like the deals shorter because, again, we like to kind of go back at them again.

We're open to doing longer-term deals, but you've got the -- the terms have to be right.

And I think that's important.

But you know, on average, the kind of plus or minus five years I think is a safe bet.

But like I said, we're willing to bet on our content and bet on ourselves.

Okay, and then, Les, you mentioned in your comments that there's no make-good situation.

I realize this season is early, but you're only getting paid on C-plus-3, not the other items.

Can you just explain how C-plus-3, even if you adjust for the Ashton Kutcher effect, the Halo effect, and others, still running down, say, 10% (multiple speakers) --?

Yes, you know, number one, most of that 10% is based on one night.

And we feel like, and our advertisers agree, that this is going to go away over the next few weeks and as we head into the beginning of the year.

So there is no payback necessary.

You know, once again, it's not a cut and dried system where that if you've missed a number, that they realize by the end of the year, we will be fine.

So there's no make-goods.

Okay.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Alan.

Great.

Thanks, Alan.

And this concludes today's call.

Thank you, everyone, for joining us.

Have a great evening.

Thank you, everyone.

That does conclude today's conference.

We thank you for your participation.