Paramount Global (PARA) 2009 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the CBS Corporation second quarter 2009 earnings release teleconference.

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to the Executive Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr.

Adam Townsend, please, go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, and welcome to our second quarter 2009 earning call.

Joining me for today's discussion are Sumner Redstone, our Executive Chairman; Leslie Moonves, President and CEO; Fred Reynolds, Executive Vice President; and Joe Ianniello, Executive Vice President and CFO.

Sumner will have opening remarks and then we'll turn the call over to Leslie, Fred and Joe to discuss the strategic and financial results.

We will then open the call up to questions.

Let me note that statements on this conference call relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.

Risk and uncertainties are disclosed in CBS Corporation's new release and securities filings.

A webcast of this call and the earnings release related to today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at CBSCorporation.com.

Reconciliations for non-GAAP financial information related to this call can be found in our earnings release, our second quarter Form 10-Q or on our website.

With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Sumner.

Thank you.

Good afternoon, everyone.

I thank you for being with us today.

Throughout the year, Leslie and his management team have stayed the course.

They make continuing progress in positioning CBS as a long-term industry-leader.

During the second quarter we took an active step in improving our liquidity by refinancing near-term debt at very favorable rates.

We cut costs in all the right areas.

We're operating more efficiently.

And in every part of the media landscape, CBS content is at the top of its game and, by the way, content is king.

I have no doubt that CBS will be a leading beneficiary as the economy recovers, and recovery it will.

We are already seeing the signs of improvement, and CBS's operations show real proof of that.

As Leslie will tell you, many of our local businesses began to pick up earlier in the second quarter and that trend continues today.

I'm excited about what CBS will do in a steadily improving operating environment and about our long-term prospects as an industry leader in every one of our content businesses.

As to what is going on in national [amusements], as I said last week, national continues to make excellent progress.

It has excellent working relationship with its creditors.

Beyond that, as I have said in the past, I will reserve further comment until we have something definitive to announce and with that, let me turn this over to CBS's President and CEO, my very good friend and my colleague, Leslie.

Thank you, Sumner, and good afternoon, everybody.

Thanks for joining today to discuss our second quarter results for 2009.

As we anticipated, and shared with you on our last call, signs of a recovery continued in the second quarter.

The trends in your business move into the right direction relative to the first quarter and the improvement has been very steady and very real.

The economic climate is still very difficult, of course, and we have faced and will continue to face a rough economic environment, but despite this, CBS delivered more than $3 billion in revenues in the second quarter.

Our OIBDA of $387 million was the strong improvement over the first quarter as was our EPS, which came in at $0.08 per share this quarter on an adjusted basis.

Our businesses once again generated healthy free-cash flow, $352 million in the quarter, again, more than the first quarter, bringing our year-to-date total above the $0.5 billion mark.

I'm particularly pleased with the success we have had converting our OIBDA into free cash flow.

We also strengthened our balance sheet by refinancing near-term debt, replacing it with longer-dated bonds at favorable rates.

Fred and Joe will give you more detail on that later.

Going forward, we see the year progressing as we envisioned and as we told you it would on our last call.

The second quarter was better than the first.

Now we're seeing a third quarter better than the second, and we believe that the fourth quarter will be better than the third and we will continue to improve in the early part of 2010 when we have the Super Bowl and the beginning of what appears to be a healthy political year.

There are several reasons for this momentum.

First, the signs of recovery that began in the second quarter have been gathering steam in the third.

Sales pacing, particularly in the local businesses that were most challenged by the recession have been getting stronger.

Just to give you some context, our TV station group picked up more than 16 sales-pacing points between the beginning and the end of the second quarter, and Radio added 11 points.

We're seeing a similar trend in the third quarter with both local businesses pacing 4-8 points above where they were at the same point in the second quarter.

Let me stress that they are not back at levels that we want them to be, but they are clearly on the rise.

Local businesses were the first to be hit by the recession and it appears that they are the first to come out of it as well, particularly major-market properties like ours.

Other media companies without local assets like ours may not have seen this yet, but the change is noticeably here.

In addition, we have got a full pipeline of valuable syndication titles scheduled for release in the third quarter.

Five shows including "Criminal Minds" and "Ghost Whisper" have been sold at very attractive prices to leading cable outlets.

As these and other revenues come in, our margins will continue to improve, given our streamlined cost structure.

We started cutting costs across the company early last year, and we're seeing the full effects of that now.

As a result, we'll see more revenues fall from the bottom line as we move forward.

All of these expectations were built into the full-year OIBDA guidance we give you last quarter and we have reaffirmed that guidance in our press release this afternoon.

Of course, outside of the economy itself, the single most important factor, determining our performance will always be the quality and popularity of our content.

And to quote Sumner Redstone "Content is king." And the good news is from viewers to listeners to readers to unique users, we continue to lead the industry with winning content.

And we are getting that content to a variety of new audiences, and monetizing it in new ways all the time.

Let me give you an up-to-the-minute example with our hit Television show, "NCIS." As you know in the past we would broadcast the show like this and then a repeat or two.

Today we are not only collecting revenues from airing NCIS on the network and our stations, but in addition, full exclusivity in syndication is a thing of the distant past.

As a result the show has been sold to Ion Station Group, to USA on cable, it's now licensed to 196 markets internationally.

It's streamed on CBS audience network and TV.com, sold on iTunes and later this month we'll release the sixth season on DVD as well as the collectors edition of all six seasons to date.

This fall we're debuting an NCIS spinoff based in Los Angeles, setting us up to replicate this whole dynamic yet again with a new hit show.

This is why we look at ourselves a content company first.

We're confident that as distribution models evolve and grow, the best content will always win.

Of course the heart of that content is our Television segment, which posted revenues of $1.9 billion in the second quarter.

Leading the way, the CBS Television Network continues to outperform the competition with no signs of letting up.

As you remember we were up in every single key demo this past Television season, and no other network was up in any category.

This summer, CBS is once again the only network that is growing.

All the others are down double-digits and we'll continue to have the most time period winning programs, more than all the other networks combined.

I'm particularly pleased with the performance of David Letterman against the new competitions.

Ratings having surged for us since the change on June 1, and Dave recently won four consecutive weeks versus "The Tonight Show" for the first time since 1995.

He is now barely trailing NBC in adults 18 to 49 and the advertisers are noticing.

Craig Ferguson has now also won the last three weeks in a row.

We're very pleased with our position in late-night.

Speaking of advertisers, we're nearing the finish line of our upfront discussions and we're very pleased with how things have progressed, we have been the strongest player in these very protracted negotiations.

The good news for us is that despite slight pricing decline, our audience has grown.

As a result, we have been able to achieve flat revenues for the percentage of inventory we sold so far.

Total volume is down this year.

We have retained more inventory to sell in the scatter and we like our position as the economy continues to improve, and we maintain our standing as America's most watched network.

Advertisers have been coming back very strongly in the third quarter scatter market.

Particularly in core categories like retail, telecom, pharma and quick service restaurants, and scatter pricing is up over last year's upfront, which again bodes well for us going forward.

And our third quarter scatter dollars are up 30% from third quarter scatter last year.

This past broadcast season we had no audience deficiency, given our strong ratings and as a result we did very well in the scatter market.

This coming year we are even more confident in our stable schedule.

So when you couple that with an improving economy, we once again believe we can lead the scatter market as well as the entire market.

Plus we have some experience with the strategy.

The last time we managed inventory like this was in 2002 and we ended up making a lot more money in scatter than if we had sold the inventory in the upfront.

I'm confident that when it's all said and done, our content will allow us to take in the most volume at the most attractive prices.

Having the best content is also very important to our premium cable business.

At ShowTime subscriber growth was the single largest driver behind our 10% year-over-year gain in affiliate revenues in the second quarter.

The continuing quality of our programming is clearly fueling our subscriber growth and we launched another new hit in the quarter with Nurse Jackie.

We partnered with 100 outlets to offer online and mobile sampling of the first episode and it helped us deliver the highest ratings for a new series on ShowTime.

One again, more platforms represent more ways for us to get our content to new audiences.

Of course, getting sufficiently paid for delivering these audiences has been the challenge.

The good news is that new initiatives, like authentication appear to have us on a track towards closer economic parity online and on-air.

The initiative represents the latest consumer-friendly technology to make content, along with its advertising, available across multiple platforms and be measured in a uniform way for clients.

Whether you call it authentication, reverse comp, or retransmission fees, our content is increasingly benefiting from multiple revenue streams.

With greatly expanded reach and scale, our CBS Interactive segment plays a key part in these initiatives.

Thanks in part to the addition of Cnet, Interactive revenues have tripled over the last year to $126 million in the second quarter.

Plus with costs down significantly is on a consolidated base, we are producing dramatically improved OIBDA and the division is contributing to the Company's free-cash flow.

Nearly all of our key sites, including Cnet, CBS.com, CBSsports.com and Bnet grew monthly unique users by double-digits year-over-year in June and we continue to find effective ways to cross-promote our premium online content.

CBS Interactive is already a leader in news, sports entertainment, business and technology and now we'll be adding the CBS Interactive music group was well.

As you will recall, this new group combined CBS's Radio leading online streaming business with LastFM.

Taken together we have an audience of nearly 40 million unique monthly users in this music vertical and a committed national and local sales force to monetize it.

We 're increasingly seeing advertisers buying across our Interactive properties as well as across TV and online.

In this way, Interactive has helped all of our content businesses broaden our client base by offering multi-platform solutions for our advertisers.

Turning to Radio, as I mentioned, sales pacing has steadily been on the rise for a couple of months now and it continues to be a solid contributor to our company's results, $322 million in revenue and $95 million in OIBDA in the second quarter.

Many businesses would love to produce 30% margins in the toughest economic environment we have seen in decades, not to mention generating strong free-cash flow quarter after quarter.

Plus, Radio listenship is holding steady.

The fact is, CBS Radio has not lost audience over the past five years and as competitors in weaker financial shape fall off, we can only get stronger.

That is because in Radio, as with our other businesses, great content always wins out in the end.

We see the proof of that everyday.

The format changes we have made in major markets like New York and Los Angeles are delivering higher ratings and revenue share.

In fact, ratings for CBS Radio are up in all of the top-five markets from a year-ago.

We also continue to maintain a leading presence in the Outdoor business.

Outdoor contributed $434 million to our second quarter revenues and produced a $10% OIBDA margin and just like in Radio and TV, we're seeing signs of stabilization with pacing showing some improvement.

We believe Outdoor will perform well over the long-term, especially the investments we made in digital boards and emerging international markets.

Meanwhile, our Publishing segment generated $181 million in revenues in the second quarter.

We anticipate here also a stronger second half, given a number of upcoming releases including new titles by Stephen King and Vince Flynn.

Simon and Schuster also has a great opportunity to expand our content to new audience by making our titles available on Kindle, iPhone and Blackberry among other devices.

Across the Company our long-term goals remain the same, creating premium content, and delivering it to a broad audience, offering increasing value to our advertisers, running our businesses as efficiently as possible, maintaining our solid financial footing and positioning CBS to be a long-term leader in the media industry.

The economy clearly has a long way to go, but what we're seeing is that the worst is behind us.

People are coming to mass media to get their message out.

Campaigns for Cash-for-clunkers and healthcare initiatives come to broadcast first to reach the American people and we're seeing a number of key categories coming back from all of our businesses from automotive to pharmaceutical, financial services.

Looking forward, our balance sheet is strong.

We continue to produce healthy free-cash flow and have just once again announced a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share among the highest in the industry.

Now I with like to turn the call over to my college, Fred Reynolds and our new CFO Joe Ianniello, but first allow me a word about Fred.

Fred and I have both worked together since we came to CBS in 1995.

He has been a steady hand as Chief Financial Officer, a brilliant mind for our company and a terrific guide and colleague as well.

He has been instrumental in the shape of this great corporation and he will be missed by a lot of people, especially me, both professionally and personally.

At the same time, one of the attributes of a strong leader is the ability to prepare the next generation for success and that is precisely what Fred has done working with Joe over the course of the last 12 years they have been together.

I'm confident that as we move forward, we couldn't possibly be in better hands in this crucial role.

So with that, thank you, again, Fred, and welcome, Joe.

Thank you, Leslie.

Especially thank you for those very kind words.

It's been a lot of fun, as you know and this has been great.

Good afternoon to all of you and as Leslie mentioned we're passing the CFO baton to Joe.

And I can't tell you how very please and proud I am that Joe with succeed me as CFO of CBS.

As Leslie said the last 12 years it's been a real pleasure to work with Joe, especially the last four years, working shoulder-to-shoulder with him has been terrific and I'm very proud of his accomplishments.

So for this call you are going to get two of us to talk about the highlights.

One, Joe and myself will cover the second quarter highlights and expectations for the balance of 2009.

For our second quarter financial results I hope you have seen those.

I've showed marked improvements over the first quarter and we expect our financial performance to show improvement for each quarter for the balance of 2009, with our second half results showing the most improvement.

For the second quarter our revenues totaled $3 billion, that was down 11% from last year, which was a 3% improvement over the first quarter's revenue performance.

Foreign exchange, largely at Outdoor lowered our reported revenues by almost 1.5 percentage points versus year-ago.

Our operating income before depreciation and amortization totaled $387 million at the second quarter.

Again, an improvement over our first quarter performance.

As you will note in today's earnings release our OIBDA for the second quarter was negatively affected by a few items in comparison with the year-ago quarter.

First, we recognized a $14 million write-down of third party programming at our TV station unit to its expected net realizable value.

And as part of the final switch from the analog to digital transmission, our TV stations wrote down $5 million related to exiting an analog TV transmitter lease.

Finally the strong US dollar versus year-ago reduced our OIBDA by $6 million versus last year's second quarter.

These three items accounted for about three percentage points of the decline in OIBDA versus last year at this time.

As we noted last quarter the impact of our cost-reduction actions continue to be significant.

Our second quarter non-programming operating expenses, along with sales and G&A expenses, were about $80 million lower than the second quarter of 2008, in the first quarter these expenses were $75 million in the previous year.

Our programming costs in absolute terms were higher in the second quarter of 2009, as last year, due to the Writers Guild strike we produced fewer episodes and fewer pilots; however, on an ongoing basis our programming costs are lower per episode than they were last year in the second quarter.

A few other items to note in today's release.

For the second quarter we recognized a $30 million loss on the early extinguishment of our 2010 notes, which we redeemed in May.

As previously discussed, in the second quarter our tax division is unusually high due to the reduction of our deferred tax asset that is related to stock-based compensation expense, which resulted from the difference in our stock value at time of the grant, and our stock prices at thus state.

These two items reduced our earnings per share by $0.06.

Also last year in the second quarter we recognized a $127 million pretax gain or a $0.12 earnings per share gain on the sale of our interest in the Sundance channel; the gain was reflected in other items net.

Let me now provide highlights in our major segments for the second quarter and then I will turn the call over to Joe, who will discuss actions that we took this quarter to refinance a significant portion of our 2010 debt maturities, also to discuss our strong second quarter free-cash flow, and our balance of year expectations and business outlook.

So turning to your Television segments, which had second quarter revenues of $1.9 billion, which was down 10% in the second quarter of last year.

Now, again, this is an improvement of 2 percentage points versus the first quarter's performance.

Local advertising softness at our TV stations drove a significant portion of the decline in second quarter revenues compared to year-ago.

The CBS network, time period ad revenue was down 6%, with Primetime down 4% versus the second quarter of '08.

As Leslie just noted, our network ratings have been terrific, however, the scatter market price, while still higher than last year's upfront was not nearly as robust as it was a year-ago.

As we just noted, the third quarter scatter market is quite a bit stronger than we expected in the second quarter.

Affiliate revenues, which consist of subscriber and transmission fees from cable, satellite and telco companies totaled about $330 million for the second quarter, up 10% over year-ago.

Turning to OIBDA for the Television segment, it totaled $307 million, down from $512 million last year at this time.

The previously mentioned program write down and analog equipment charge at our Television stations lowered OIBDA by $19 million compared to last year's second quarter.

Turning to Radio, second quarter revenues totaled $322 million, down 23% from last year, an improvement of 6 percentage points over the performance in the first quarter of '09.

We continue to see improving sales trends in the third quarter versus the second quarter for Radio.

Outdoor revenues for the second quarter were $434 million, a decline of 27% from last year.

The strong US dollar versus last year's second quarter caused six points of this revenue decline.

And finally, Interactive revenue for the second quarter total $126 million, up from $40 million last year in the second quarter.

As you recall, we closed the Cnet acquisition on the last day of the second quarter of 2008.

And operating profit for the Interactive segment was almost $6 million versus a loss last year at the OIBDA line of $17 million a year-ago.

So with that brief overview, let me now turn the call over to Joe to discuss additional financial and operating highlights.

Thank you, Fred.

I want to thank both you, and Leslie, to build on all that we've done together at this point.

This afternoon I will focus my comments on our balance sheet, our free-cash flow and our outlook for the remainder of the year.

First, with regards to the balance sheet, we took some important steps during the quarter to refinance our near-term debt.

We issued $1 billion of long-term maturities, $400 million due in five years with a coupon rate of 8.2% and $600 million due in ten years with a coupon of 8.875%.

We were able to take advantage of the easing credit markets and extend our weighted average debt maturities to approximately 16 years.

We also tendered for our 7.7% notes due in July 2010.

We successfully retired $825 million of those notes, leaving only $415 million outstanding, a very manageable amount that we will pay down with cash flow from operations.

You should also note that cash on hand as of June 30, amounted to $342 million.

We remain focused and committed to maintaining our investment-grade balance sheet.

We will continue to prune some mid-size Radio stations and on the acquisition front, although we look at everything, the hurdle rate has been raised and I do not see any major acquisitions on the horizon.

You will also note that net debt decreased $246 million from the first quarter, continuing our deleveraging strategy.

As of June 30, there were no borrowings outstanding under our $3 billion credit facility.

This facility doesn't mature until December 2010; however, we will be discussing an extension with our banks in the coming months.

Turning to free-cash flow, which as Leslie said, came in at $352 million for the quarter, a significant improvement from the first quarter.

This was driven by higher profits, lower capital spending and lower cash taxes, as well as positive working capital.

We continue to manage our balance sheet effectively, focusing on our collection efforts from our receivables.

So for the first six months of 2009, free-cash flow totaled $556 million, representing an 87% conversion rate from operating income before depreciation and amortization.

Included in the $556 million, is $43 million of payments related to previous restructuring charges.

Now let's look at the remainder of the year.

As you know, we have reaffirmed our full-year OIBDA guidance ranging from 1.725 billion to 1.925 billion.

We continue to be encouraged by the factors that Leslie outlined earlier, first, by the visibility of the sales trends we're seeing in the third quarter at our local businesses.

Second, by the commitments we have received during this upfront season.

Third, by the cost savings we received from the initiatives that began last year and finally, by the strong slate of syndication programs that will begin the back half of this year.

All of these factors give us confidence that the back half of 2009 will be notably better than it the first half.

I also want to highlight some information that was included in your 10-Q that we filed today.

For full-year 2009 we expected to pay approximately $100 million to $125 million in cash taxes, of which $72 million has been paid through June.

And capital expenditures for the year will be in the range of the $275 million to $325 million, of which, $139 million has been spent through June.

At this level of Cap Ex, there is still investment capital being deployed.

The consensus by US economists is that GDP will be positive for the third quarter, the fourth quarter and 2010, compared to negative growth we have experienced for the last few quarters, which bodes well for us, because as you know, approximately 85% of our revenues are derived from the United States and there is a high correlation between GDP growth and advertising spending.

So let me wrap up by saying as the US economy improves CBS is well-positioned to deliver stronger operating results, improve margins and even stronger free-cash flow.

Thanks and now let's open up the phone lines for questions.

(Operator Instructions).

We'll go to Jessica Reif Cohen, Banc of America, Merrill Lynch

I had a couple of questions.

First, I was wondering if you could address what do you think the asset mix will look like over the next few years.

I know George has said that you don't see acquisitions in the near-term, but there has been constant speculation you may divest or separate some the businesses.

So I was just wondering if you could talk about that.

Do you want the questions now or one at a time?

You can give the questions now.

We'll write them down.

Second, I was wondering if you could discuss what you think the upside is in late night given the change in ratings between the competitors.

This is really kind of an '09, 2010 season question.

And then finally, given the weakness in TV station advertising we have seen over the last year or so, could you talk about what you are seeing in license fees from first-run TV syndications and what kind of margins are you seeing in that business?

All right.

Let me start out.

In terms of the asset mix, Jess, the only thing we stated definitively is we are looking to trim some Radio stations, which we expressed before.

The good news is we don't have to do it.

We don't need the cash, but we're out there looking and when the right deals become available, we will do that.

Once again as we started before we're a content business and we're not looking to go out and make any acquisition of any sizeable amount yet.

If there are some tuck-ins that work with our Internet group business that are profitable as our group is, we will do that.

As you know, we've recently begun a new feature film business.

So once again, another content business and that's where we're directing our efforts right now.

But other than that there are no major plans, I don't think now is the right time to buy or to sell.

So we are playing the hand we're dealing.

In terms of late-night, clearly, as I said, Letterman is doing really, really well.

We were losing for ten years in a row and suddenly we're winning four weeks in a row and plus the gap in 18 to 49 has decreased by about 80% during that period of time, as well as at the 12:30 time slot, that has also changed.

That game has changed considerably.

How that will affect revenue is hard to say.

Clearly we expect to take in more money in that time period, less of late-night is sold on the upfront.

It's more scatter-oriented.

So these good results should result for better results for us in the fourth and first quarter right way.

We expect to see it fairly quickly and we think it's great to have been given an opportunity to get back in first place and we're doing it, Fred.

Jessica, you kind of know what NBC did at "The Tonight Show," and that is up for grabs, as Leslie just said.

So instead of being a distant second, it's not trivial the amount of revenue there and it's largely high-margin revenue.

Right, and in terms of just briefly on the first-run business, obviously with a couple of bankruptcies, there have been a couple of changing of the deals.

With Tribune, nothing that is major or that would affect your bottom line at all across the board.

We're not seeing much change.

Remember.

Most of these dials are long-term.

Wheel, Jeopardy, Oprah they are until the end of the contract.

Dr.

Phil, they are at the end of the contract, so nothing is going to change because of the economy or what's happening.

Obviously in the case of bankruptcy, there is some slight adjustment, but they have been relatively minimal and we think as the economy begins to come back we're going to be just fine.

Thank you.

Let's go to the next question, please.

We'll take your next question from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

Good afternoon.

If I could ask two, one on the free-cash flow side.

I think in the first half of the year, you converted about a little less than 90you're your EBITDA to free cash flow and in the back half you have got a nice EBITDA ramp, but I think you have Super Bowl payment, maybe syndication revenues which have some negative working cap implications.

Just trying to get a sense of what the free-cash flow would look like in the back half since you converted so much over in the first half.

And then just on the network pacings which sound like they have gotten better in the third quarter.

So you think things are strong enough that the network prime time could be up positive in Q3 given your ratings strength or is it too early to tell?

Why don't you guys (multiple speakers) free-cash flow.

This is Joe.

I will take the free-cash flow.

Obviously we don't give free-cash flow guidance for the full-year, obviously an 87% flow through is very high.

Clearly when we recognize the revenue with the strong syndication, the revenue gets recognized in the quarter and then the cash flow will come in in the following months.

So we have given you kind of cash taxes and our debt is fixed, so the interest.

We have given you our capital expenditures, and we have given you kind of an OIBDA guidance range.

So the only piece is really working capital and again, if you just look at historical how we manage the balance sheet, you can see how effective we are.

That is helpful.

Thank you.

Regarding network third quarter, the scatter has been truly phenomenal.

We have been so pleasantly surprised.

I literally got a call from our finance guy, can we make some more room because we have too much inventory?

I swear and on some of the reality shows we actually can make that happen.

You can sort of trim a little bit out and stick an ad or two in.

So literally, when I said we did 30% better, that is about $30 million in scatter more third quarter this year than third quarter last year.

So it's a sizeable amount of money and we're very bullish on our schedule.

As you know, we only put on four new shows, one of which is a spinoff of a successful show.

So not high risk.

There is very little risk in our schedule.

The schedule kicks off September 21, which obviously is the end of the third quarter, but we think that the third quarter could turn out positive.

Yes.

Thanks a lot.

Kevin, next question please.

We'll go next to Michael Morris with UBS.

Thank you.

A couple on the cost side and the sustainability of where you got to.

First on Radio, it looks like you have taken over $50 million in costs out already this year, adjusting for the write downs, the restructuring last year.

My question is I thought you were targeting about 75 for the year.

You are clearly well ahead of that pace.

How should we be thinking about the cost side in the back half of the year for Radio?

Second, Joe you mentioned visibility as being one of the things you were more confident in as you look to the back half of the year.

Could you put more color on that, perhaps in terms of how far into the future you are seeing bookings and what the change has been from the second quarter to the third quarter?

Michael, this is Fred.

I'll take the first one on Radio and then flip to Joe on visibility.

Radio we're averaging $10 million a month and that has been the run-rate.

Actually both at Radio and TV, so I think we'll be well north of the 75.

That is our expectation.

So on an annualized basis probably going to be in the $100 million range and then TV stations about the same as far as we can see.

Again, costs remain very, very tight.

Michael, on the visibility front, I mean, again, as Leslie said, we're seeing at this point in the third quarter relative to the second quarter our local businesses, TV, Radio and Outdoor are four to eight pace points ahead of where they were.

The second quarter was a similar gain on the first quarter.

So we're just really projecting that out if that trend continues, where we'll end up.

Again, that is going to be notably better than this quarter.

Thanks.

Just back on that first question on the cost reductions.

In an environment where you perhaps do get more volume coming through, can you sustain that level of cost, or is there some variable element that we should be looking at bringing back in, if the topline were to grow?

Again, this is Fred.

I think the only variable, really, is commission.

So that is why our flow through on incremental sales dollar is about $0.85 on the dollar profit.

So that would obviously vary.

We'll pay more commission as incremental sales dollars go up but we like the ratios.

Great, thank you.

Michael, next question, please.

We'll go next to Douglas Mitchelson with Deutsche Bank.

Sort of weird question, but your ad sales down 6% at CBS, you had great ratings this summer, ABC's ratings are pretty challenged, their ad sales were down 5%, are you able to sort of square those numbers?

Of course all of us are using ratings in our forward estimates to try and figure out what you can do and just wondering why those numbers aren't a little bit more different?

Separately Joe talked about the strong TV syndication sales coming in the second half.

Can you talk a little bit what is coming in 2010, so we can eyeball the year-over-year comparisons?

There has been discussion of another CSI cycle.

Is that something that could happen?

Thanks.

The 6% down sales versus the 5% at ABC.

I wasn't aware of the ABC numbers.

It's not a ratings situation.

It's because of the economy and cost of sales, and as I said the good news for us we have zero make goods.

We had during the year no make-goods and we have none now.

So a lot of times networks may enter into a fall season where they have to give back some.

We are anticipating -- and also as we head to the third quarter, I think you can see those results considerably better because how strong the scatter market is which wasn't quite as strong in the second quarter.

So we're quite pleased, yes, ratings were strong and as a result the upfront is going to end up being very, very very strong for us and so is the fall season.

On the TV syndication front, Doug, obviously we're not going to have five shows that we have this year going into 2010.

Again, obviously 2010 is a political year and we have the Super Bowl, but we do have the Showtime original series that will available going forward from 2011 on.

So the good news is that if you produce great content, it makes its way into syndication and the cash flows follow.

Plus you can also see some second cycles of some very big titles that will amount to a considerable amount of money.

When do we go from a may to knowing whether or not they are coming?

We are in the process of negotiating some of those deals right now.

Some of them may be announced by the end of the next quarter, but there are some big titles out there.

As you know with second cycles they could happen at any point.

In other words, there is renegotiation that goes on when you have the amount of syndicated product that we do with the three CSIs and the Numbers and the Mediums and Criminal Minds and all of those shows, there is a lot of activity and it continues.

The pipeline continues to be fed.

So we're not terribly worried.

This year happens to be a very fruitful year because of five new titles going in there, but the beat will continue on.

To give you some comfort, Doug, this is Fred again.

Some of those big titles that Leslie talked about kind of expire at the end of '11 or in '11 and in early '12, so it shouldn't be unusual to renew them in '10 or with someone else.

So it could be very lucrative for us to do that.

Kevin, next question, please.

Next to Michael Meltz with JPMorgan.

Thank you, Leslie, back to your comment about upfront.

I am understanding what you are saying about what you're seeing in scatter market now.

How much -- what percent of the inventory have you actually sold or do you expect to sell?

We expect to sell probably around 10 points less than a year ago.

And last year we were between 75 and 80.

So I'm guessing 65ish, maybe a little higher than that.

Once again, with our schedule, that is just fine, that is just fine.

We'll wait.

We anticipate scatter to be stronger than the upfront, fairly certain of that and fairly certain of good ratings.

So we are very confident.

One follow-up question and I don't know if this is for Fred or someone else.

Can you give us a rough sense of the tax basis of the Outdoor group, please?

Michael, this is Joe.

We don't give that information out.

Obviously that would be pretty useful information for people to try to solve our tax situation.

So we don't, obviously, we bought the Outdoor business, if you track back to the Outdoor systems, at a pretty high multiple.

So that is all we'll say about that.

Next no Michael Nathanson with Sanford Bernstein.

I have a couple.

Let me start with Leslie.

Leslie, I just have a question.

What is puzzling is if third quarter scatter is really so strong, why wouldn't the upfront volumes for the industry be stronger at this point?

You would think people would want to lock in the market given how strong it sounds right now.

Michael, that is a very good question, but the truth of matter is people aren't buying.

The upfront goes out for about 15 months, when you think about it.

People are not buying that far in advance.

They're budgets are more -- what we're seeing in scatter and we're seeing overall in the market, people are buying a lot closer to air time.

You are right.

The fact that we are up 30% scatter from a year ago is a pretty phenomenal number and that is why we're holding back inventory.

We're aware that the budgets are less from these big companies.

That they are holding back.

They want to see what happens with the economy.

In addition, my guess is six months from now, the automobile companies will have a lot more money than they have allotted to spend today.

That is why you are not seeing that.

Of the volume that is down, let's say for you guys, ten points lower, how much is coming from big auto?

Is that a big percentage of what's --?

I can't give you an exact percent because I don't have it right now.

But it is some, clearly.

By the way, there was a real shot in the arm with the Cash-for-Clunkers.

A real shot in the arm for national as well as local.

It really helped.

And so you see an initiative like that helping and it gives you great encouragement that when they see some light at the end of the tunnel, which they're beginning to do, the money is going to start coming in.

It's just that they are not able to plan a year in advance.

Fred, I know in the past you haven't answered this with a number, so I'm going to try a different way.

Basically over the past couple of the days or weeks we heard both Disney and News Corp say their stations are pacing down in the mid-20s, were down in the mid-20s in the second quarter.

Would CBS be above or below that trend for the second quarter?

The second quarter, I will answer that question, we'll be right where our competitors are, yes.

Thanks.

The last one would be when does political compare start coming in on the local level for Radio and TV?

At what point last year did it start building for you guys?

I was going to tell you that, Michael, because in September and October of last year we probably booked over $80 million.

This is gross, so net would be less than that, but gross sales for political at the TV station level and the four days in November was probably another 10 or 15.

So it was probably $80 million ad sales that came in last year.

We do have a gubernatorial race in New Jersey and as you know, we have a very wealthy mayor in New York that wants to win.

So that is going to help us a little bit and we're also seeing some of the healthcare initiatives that Leslie referred to.

There is big money being spent to influence Congress and we think that is going to heat up as they are back in their home states.

As you know, we're in the big markets.

So we have -- TV stations have a mountain to climb over the next ten weeks, starting after Labor Day and then we'll be through it.

Thanks, Michael.

Kevin, next question.

Nest to Anthony DiClemente with Barclays.

Just on the automotive, trying to get into a little more detail there.

Les, you talked about Cash for Clunkers.

I was wondering if you could differentiate between how much of that you think is temporary because of the Cash-for-Clunkers or is recurring or ongoing improvement in activity for automotive and differentiating both at the OEM level and then at the local stations?

Then I have a follow-up.

That is a tough question to answer.

Obviously when the program was announced and it's fairly recent.

There was a shot in the arm and when it got renewed, I think, two days ago, it continues along.

I think Ford is starting to grow more than the others, because they seem to be healthier right now.

It's hard to quantify.

Fred, do you want to add to that?

Let me just jump in Anthony.

One, the first quarter was absolutely a rock bottom for auto, because you had two majors going into bankruptcy and they didn't spend.

Second quarter was a lot better and the third quarter is a lot better than that.

We have good visibility through certainly early separate and again, don't forgot, our major advertisers are the foreign manufacturers.

It's the Toyota, the BMW, the Mercedes and just recall where our local TV stations are -- in Los Angeles (multiple speakers).

They don't have a problem and they are starting to spend.

Sure, I think the Cash-for-Clunkers got people off the couch and into looking at the market, but believe me, you saw there was only 200,000 cars that could possibly [be sold for it] but they are selling a lot more than that.

So we think it's sustainable.

Our guys, obviously Leslie, Joe and I get constant updates on the daily from our local sales guys.

They are seeing more and more requests for avails because now we're running into the new fall launches for 2010.

There's a lot of new models, lots of new models that haven't been out there before.

Thanks.

I'm just also wondering if the resurgence at the network means that we're back to Tavern on the Green for next year's upfront party?

We'll see by January, but if not, I will invite you for a cocktail myself.

Thanks, Anthony.

Thanks.

We'll go to Mark Wienkes with Goldman Sachs.

Thank you.

Just with respect to Showtime, clearly a lot of momentum from a content perspective.

How much of the 10%, I guess you call it affiliate and retran fee increase was driven by Showtime subgrowth versus retran because today there was a pay TV provider talking about softness in premium channel take rates.

Just wondering if you've seen any of that softness at Showtime and then if you can just gives us an update on where the progress is on the film production business?

Number one, the word retrans does not apply to Showtime.

It applies to CBS.

In other words, Showtime's growth is in affiliate fees.

We're growing a lot of our MSOs and once again, there is a real strength for the service caused by original programming.

Understood.

I just thought the 10% was lumped in together, wasn't that a combination of subscription-type payments?

It is, but it relates to the TV stations.

I think what you'll see, Mark, is that we're getting two things at Showtime and College Sports?

College Sports as you know is in 32 million homes now, quite a bit different than it was a year ago.

It was at about 25 million homes.

So we're getting geographic expansion, subscriber expansion, we're also getting great increases.

Showtime is getting rate increases and it's also getting expansions.

The telcos are very important to Showtime and it's a big driver of our expansion of the subscriber base and College Sports is getting more subscribers and more fees.

So that is why we had the double-digit growth and that should be pretty sustainable.

Regarding film production, we're in the process of shooting our third movie right now.

Two of them are complete.

Romantic Comedy with J.

Lo will be released January 22, will be our first.

Our second starring Harrison Ford will be in March or April and then the third one which is Beastly, which is our teen movie, which will be out during the summer.

All of these movies, all three of them are in below $40 million.

As a matter of fact one is below $25 million.

So we're keeping to our game plan.

We're very pleased with what we have seen so far and we're anticipating a very good year for our film company.

Great, thank you.

Thanks, Mark.

Next question, please.

We'll go next to Rich Greenfield with Pali Capital.

Hi, thanks for taking the question.

When you look at the syndication marketplace, I think, Fred, you mentioned that there was a write-down, which I sense is at the TV stations related to syndicated programming that the TV stations had bought that they are now writing down the realizable value or given what's gone on in the syndication ratings world.

Just wondering, given that write-down, how does it impact -- I know a lot of your syndication goes to cable, but you obviously do syndicate to TV stations like Ion, et cetera.

How do you think about the long-term marketplace for syndication, given what has gone on with syndicated ratings and the rationale for why you are writing down the value of that content?

Then A second follow-up question, DirecTV, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, really all of the multi-channel operators have talked about weakness in premium subscriptions or pay TV subscriptions.

Just curioius, Showtime obviously has had great ratings, but just wondering, it seems like the consumer is really starting to give up on some of their paid TV subscriptions and wondering how that plays out into Showtime profitability?

Or do you have guaranteed numbers over the next couple of years that mitigate that risk?

Thanks.

On the first one, let me answer it.

This is Fred that.

Really that was a TV station [that was similar to the CW] and independent station and it was third-party programming, nothing related to anything that was part of our Paramount TV or CBS production.

These were shows that were in sort of the back-end of their lifecycle.

They expire kind of in 2010, 2011 and they just weren't producing.

They were moved from their original time slot because we have fresher programs in there.

They moved from a different day and time, probably to overnight and other areas.

So that is what happened.

I don't think it's all atypical of what you do when a program gets in the last part of its syndication cycle, but these were not ours and they were also on our smaller market, independent stations for the most part.

Rich, to add to that also, our bigger titles are sold to the major cable channels, okay?

So when I mentioned Ion, that is the secondary market that.

That's after 'selling, like NCIS, like I mentioned.

The big sale was to USA.

The Ion sale was an after sale, for I would say for 10 to 15% of that, so it's a much lesser -- and once again, of these five new deals that we're announcing, they were all the major cable guys, the USAs, the A&Es, the TNTs, et cetera.

So that remains a very strong marketplace for us and it will continue.

In terms of Showtime, number one, we are protected by the packages and by the deals by and large.

We are not at all -- as a matter of fact, we're seeing in certain ones of the, as Fred mentioned earlier, the telcos, every new subscriber a telco gets, Showtime goes up.

So we're rooting for their success.

It's great to have this many players in the marketplace and most of our deals are packaged accordingly that we're protected.

We do not anticipate the weakness in premium to affect us.

If I could just follow-up on the syndication line item.

When you look at your year-to-date syndication and how you think about the full-year, what percentage of syndication revenues come from local TV stations, versus from cable networks?

Local TV is rather small.

It's a rather -- it's a small percentage.

Guys do you have the exact numbers?

The majority, the vast majority is cable.

Meaning over 75%?

I would say so, yes.

Thanks.

Thank you.

We have time for one more question, please.

We'll take our last question from Marci Ryvicker.

You said on your last call that the first quarter would be the bottom for CBS and that trends would improve throughout the year.

It sounds from today's call like trends are actually better than you expected.

So is this the right take on your comments?

And then secondly, [JC Duco] has commented publicly about their interest in your Outdoor assets.

Have you had discussions with them and how do you think about your Outdoor assets in terms of your overall strategy, which is really focused on content?

The first question, yes, indeed.

We really did have the visibility and we said then second would be better than the first and third would be better than the second, et cetera.

That is coming into play.

Am I pleasantly surprised by the second quarter?

I would say, yes, mildly.

To see the pacing getting better in all of these businesses is great.

To see where we're going to be as a company, it's definitely heading in the right direction and we're definitely seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

Mr.

[Duco] is a very charming Frenchman and we see him a couple of times a year.

We have lots of discussion about our business.

I know he would like to buy us.

He said that.

If you noticed, he said that every couple of years, he says that, but we like our Outdoor business, and we have no intention of doing anything with it right now, but we always enjoy having dinner with Mr.

[Duco].

Thank you.

Thanks, Marci.

This concludes today's call.

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

And we do appreciate everyone's participation.

You may disconnect at this time.