Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PAA and PAGP second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 PAA 與 PAGP 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)請注意,今日會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Blake Fernandez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給今天的講者——投資人關係副總裁 Blake Fernandez。請開始。

  • Blake Fernandez - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Blake Fernandez - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Danny. Good morning. Welcome to Plains All American second-quarter 2026 earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at ir.plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call.

    謝謝你,Danny。各位早安。歡迎參加 Plains All American 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今日的簡報投影片已張貼於投資人關係網站 ir.plains.com 的「News and Events」區。今日會議結束後也將提供音訊重播。

  • Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on slide 3. A condensed consolidated balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix.

    有關前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的重要揭露載於投影片第 2 頁。今日會議的概覽載於投影片第 3 頁。PAGP 的簡明合併資產負債表及其他參考資料收錄於附錄。

  • Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chairman, CEO and President; Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO; and other members of the management team.

    今日會議將由董事長、執行長兼總裁 Willie Chiang;執行副總裁兼財務長 Al Swanson;以及管理團隊其他成員共同主持。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Willie.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Willie。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $738 million, which puts us on track to deliver our full year EBITDA guidance of $2.88 billion, plus or minus $75 million for 2026. Al will cover more details on our results in his portion of the call. The conflict in the Middle East and supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz illustrate the importance of reliable, secure and responsibly produced energy.

    謝謝你,Blake。各位早安,也感謝各位加入我們。今天早上,我們公布第二季歸屬於 Plains 的調整後 EBITDA 為 7.38 億美元,使我們有望達成 2026 年全年 EBITDA 指引 28.8 億美元(上下浮動 7,500 萬美元)。Al 會在他那一段更詳細說明我們的業績。中東衝突以及荷姆茲海峽的供應中斷,凸顯可靠、安全且以負責任方式生產的能源之重要性。

  • We believe this increases the value of existing infrastructure, and we are well positioned to help play a critical role in meeting global energy demand well into the future. While the macro environment has been volatile, we are successfully executing on our three key initiatives for the year. In May, we closed on the sale of our Canadian NGL business, bringing our leverage down to 3.3 times.

    我們相信這提升了既有基礎設施的價值,而我們也具備良好定位,能在未來很長一段時間內於滿足全球能源需求方面扮演關鍵角色。儘管總體環境波動,我們仍成功推進今年的三項關鍵倡議。5 月,我們完成加拿大 NGL 業務出售,使槓桿倍數降至 3.3 倍。

  • Additionally, we have captured our targeted Cactus III synergies, which will enhance our connectivity to the Corpus Christi market and oil exports longer term. Finally, we expect to realize $50 million of efficiencies across the organization by year-end 2026, along with an additional $50 million by the end of 2027.

    此外,我們已達成目標中的 Cactus III 協同效益,將強化我們與 Corpus Christi 市場及長期原油出口的連結。最後,我們預期在 2026 年底前於全組織實現 5,000 萬美元的效率提升,並在 2027 年底前再額外實現 5,000 萬美元。

  • Strong producer activity and customer demand, coupled with our premier crude oil footprint are creating new organic investment opportunities. As we outlined in our June press release and detailed on slide 5, we increased our growth capital spending for 2026 from $350 million to a range of $400 million to $450 million. These are predominantly quick hit projects that will contribute to the 2027 EBITDA and will generate a rate of return above our hurdle rate. This includes a further build-out of our Permian gathering system to service additional dedicated acreage in the Midland and Delaware Basins.

    強勁的生產商活動與客戶需求,加上我們一流的原油資產版圖,正創造新的內生成長投資機會。如我們在 6 月新聞稿中所概述並於投影片第 5 頁詳述,我們將 2026 年成長資本支出自 3.5 億美元上調至 4 億至 4.5 億美元區間。這些多為可快速落地的專案,將貢獻 2027 年 EBITDA,且報酬率高於我們的門檻報酬率。其中包括進一步擴建我們的 Permian 集輸系統,以服務 Midland 與 Delaware 盆地更多已承諾的專屬面積。

  • The acreage is backed by several high-quality producers and spans multiple counties. This brings our POPB JV total dedicated Permian acreage to approximately 5.1 million acres. Additionally, we're expanding our Canadian gathering systems. The additional capacity and connectivity will support strategic projects in the Clearwater and the Duvernay formations and are backed by producer commitments.

    該面積由多家高品質生產商支持,並橫跨多個郡。這使我們 POPB 合資(JV)在 Permian 的專屬承諾面積總計約達 510 萬英畝。此外,我們也在擴充加拿大的集輸系統。新增的產能與連通性將支持 Clearwater 與 Duvernay 地層的策略性專案,並有生產商承諾作為支撐。

  • Finally, we have sanctioned a very capital-efficient expansion of the Cactus III pipeline, adding an additional 75,000 barrels a day capacity. This brings the total capacity of the line to 725,000 barrels a day. The expansion will come online by the end of this month and will support increased demand for export barrels out of the Corpus Christi market.

    最後,我們已核准一項資本效率極高的 Cactus III 管線擴建,新增每日 75,000 桶的運能,使該管線總運能提升至每日 725,000 桶。此擴建將於本月底前投產,並將支持 Corpus Christi 市場出口桶數需求的增加。

  • We continue to evaluate additional investment opportunities, both organic and inorganic that strengthen our portfolio and complement our existing asset base. With regard to Permian production, we now expect approximately 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day of growth in 2026 versus 2025 on an exit-to-exit basis. Upside from our previous forecast of relatively flat production is mainly due to natural gas egress coming online earlier than expected. Importantly, the ramp-up in Permian oil production will create meaningful momentum into 2027 while having minimal impact to EBITDA this year.

    我們持續評估其他投資機會,包含內生與外延(併購)機會,以強化我們的投資組合並與既有資產基礎互補。就 Permian 產量而言,我們目前預期 2026 年相較 2025 年,以期末對期末(exit-to-exit)計算將成長約每日 100,000 至 200,000 桶。相較先前對產量大致持平的預測,上修主要來自天然氣外運(egress)較預期更早上線。重要的是,Permian 原油產量的爬坡將為 2027 年帶來顯著動能,同時對今年 EBITDA 的影響極小。

  • Our capital allocation framework and efficient growth strategy remain intact. We have a commitment to capital discipline to optimize our asset base and maintaining a very flexible balance sheet while returning significant cash to shareholders.

    我們的資本配置框架與高效率成長策略維持不變。我們承諾資本紀律,以最佳化資產基礎、維持高度彈性的資產負債表,並同時向股東回饋可觀現金。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Al to cover our quarterly performance and other financial matters.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Al,請他說明我們的季度表現與其他財務事項。

  • Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Willie. Slides 6 and 7 contain adjusted EBITDA walks that provide additional details on our performance. For the second quarter, we reported crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $690 million, representing a significant increase from the first quarter level. This was driven by a combination of Cactus III synergies, efficiencies, market-based opportunities and the absence of headwinds from the first quarter.

    謝謝,Willie。投影片第 6 與第 7 頁包含調整後 EBITDA 的變動橋接(walk),提供我們表現的更多細節。第二季我們的原油事業部調整後 EBITDA 為 6.90 億美元,較第一季水準大幅增加。這主要由 Cactus III 協同效益、效率提升、市場型機會,以及第一季逆風因素消失等多項因素共同帶動。

  • I would note that second quarter results include approximately $14 million of one-off environmental remediation expenses. Moving to the NGL segment. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $40 million, which reflects the mid-May closing date on the sale of the business. We are contemplating removing NGL segment EBITDA from our reporting in the third quarter and instead reporting adjusted EBITDA with one segment. A summary of 2026 guidance and key assumptions are on slide 8.

    我也要指出,第二季結果包含約 1,400 萬美元的一次性環境整治費用。接著看 NGL 事業部,我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 4,000 萬美元,反映該業務於 5 月中旬完成出售。我們正考慮自第三季起不再單獨揭露 NGL 事業部 EBITDA,改為以單一事業部口徑揭露調整後 EBITDA。2026 年指引摘要與主要假設載於投影片第 8 頁。

  • As Willie outlined, we raised growth capital to a range of $400 million to $450 million and increased our Permian production forecast to 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day exit to exit. Maintenance capital was decreased to $175 million, largely due to the timing of the NGL sale. Regarding our pipeline loss allowance revenue, we are approximately 70% hedged for the balance of the year at an average WTI price around $62.

    如 Willie 所述,我們將成長資本上調至 4 億至 4.5 億美元區間,並將 Permian 產量預測上調至以期末對期末計算每日 100,000 至 200,000 桶的成長。維護性資本下調至 1.75 億美元,主要因 NGL 出售時點所致。就我們的管線損耗補貼(loss allowance)收入而言,今年剩餘期間我們約有 70% 已進行避險,平均 WTI 價格約為 62 美元。

  • We plan to disclose our 2027 hedge position in February in conjunction with our full year outlook. As illustrated on slide 9, we expect to generate approximately $1.75 billion of free cash flow in 2026 and return significant capital to unitholders while maintaining financial flexibility. Our pro forma leverage ratio at the end of the second quarter was 3.3 times, reflecting approximately $2.9 billion of debt reduction driven by the NGL divestiture.

    我們計畫於 2 月在發布全年展望時一併揭露 2027 年的避險部位。如投影片第 9 頁所示,我們預期 2026 年可產生約 17.5 億美元的自由現金流,並在維持財務彈性的同時向單位持有人回饋可觀資本。第二季末的備考(pro forma)槓桿比率為 3.3 倍,反映因 NGL 資產剝離帶動約 29 億美元的債務減少。

  • With that, I will turn the call back to Willie.

    接下來,我把電話交回給 Willie。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Thanks, Al. Slide 10 highlights the 7% compounded annual growth of our crude over the past few years. Our efficient growth strategy and the sale of the NGL business position us well to execute through a range of market environments, generating a more durable cash flow and creating long-term value. We continue to build momentum into 2027 with increasing Permian production and a strong balance sheet with leverage at the low end of our target range.

    謝謝,Al。投影片第 10 頁重點呈現我們原油業務在過去幾年 7% 的年複合成長。我們的高效率成長策略以及 NGL 業務出售,使我們能在各種市場環境下順利執行,產生更具韌性的現金流並創造長期價值。隨著 Permian 產量提升以及槓桿位於目標區間低端的強健資產負債表,我們持續為 2027 年累積動能。

  • Our capital allocation framework priorities remain the same: one, return cash to unitholders through our targeted $0.15 per unit annual increases; two, execute on accretive bolt-on acquisitions and organic CapEx; and three, maintain a strong balance sheet with financial flexibility. We have already identified and expect to capture an additional $50 million of streamlining costs in 2027, and we are well positioned to capture potential tailwinds from the volatile oil macro environment.

    我們的資本配置框架優先順序維持不變:第一,透過每單位每年目標增加 0.15 美元的方式向單位持有人回饋現金;第二,執行具增值性的補強型(bolt-on)併購與內生成長資本支出(CapEx);第三,維持具財務彈性的強健資產負債表。我們已辨識並預期在 2027 年再額外取得 5,000 萬美元的精簡成本效益,且我們具備良好定位,可把握波動的原油總體環境所帶來的潛在順風。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Blake to lead us into Q&A.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Blake,由他帶領我們進入問答環節。

  • Blake Fernandez - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Blake Fernandez - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • As we answer the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions. This will allow us to address questions from as many participants as possible in our available time this morning.

    在問答環節中,請每位提問者最多提出兩個問題。這將使我們能在今天上午有限的時間內回覆盡可能多與會者的問題。

  • With that, operator, please open the call for questions.

    那麼,接線員,請開放來電提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Gabriel Moreen, Mizuho.

    Gabriel Moreen,瑞穗(Mizuho)。

  • Gabriel Moreen - Analyst

    Gabriel Moreen - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, team. Just wanted to ask about the revised CapEx, which I know came out a couple of weeks ago. Can you just talk about this level of $400 million-plus in investment capital? Maybe how sustainable you think that will be given that some of it's Canadian, some of it's Permian, some of it's Cactus. Just curious how you're thinking about in '27 and beyond?

    嗨,各位早安,團隊。我想請教一下修訂後的資本支出(CapEx),我知道大概在幾週前已經出來了。你們能談談這個超過4億美元的投資資本水準嗎?也許談談在部分在加拿大、部分在二疊紀(Permian)、部分在 Cactus 的情況下,你們認為這樣的水準有多可持續。也想了解你們對於2027年及之後是怎麼思考的?

  • Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of Plains All American GP LLC

    Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of Plains All American GP LLC

  • Sure. Good morning, Gabe. It's Christopher Chandler. So Willie laid out in our slides also show the drivers that led us to change the guidance for 2026. Some of those are typical 18- to 24-month projects. So the spend will carry into '27 and maybe a little into '28. The way I think about it is I don't expect 2027 to look significantly different than 2026, but it is trending a little higher than our historical $300 million to $400 million range net to Plains. So we'll provide 2027 guidance, obviously, when we provide full year guidance in late January, early February.

    當然。早安,Gabe。我是 Christopher Chandler。Willie 在我們的簡報裡也有說明,投影片也展示了促使我們調整2026年指引的驅動因素。其中有些是典型的18到24個月專案。因此,支出會延續到2027年,可能還會有一點到2028年。我看待這件事的方式是:我不預期2027年會和2026年有顯著不同,但確實比我們過去淨額歸屬於 Plains 的3億到4億美元歷史區間略高一些。至於2027年的指引,我們當然會在1月底、2月初提供全年指引時一併提供。

  • Gabriel Moreen - Analyst

    Gabriel Moreen - Analyst

  • Thanks, Chris. And then maybe if I could just ask about the Cactus expansion and adding the 75,000 barrels a day. Just how long do you think that takes to fill? And to what extent can you keep adding these bite-sized expansions to Cactus going forward before you have to contemplate something much bigger than that?

    謝謝,Chris。接著如果可以的話,我想問一下 Cactus 擴建、增加每日75,000桶。你們認為需要多久才能填滿?以及未來在必須考慮更大型方案之前,你們還能在 Cactus 上持續增加這種「小口徑」的擴建到什麼程度?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Gabe, good morning. It's Jeremy Goebel. To answer your question, our marketing affiliate can fill the space now and capture the volatility that we're seeing. The expectation is to contract that over time when we see the market.

    Gabe,早安。我是 Jeremy Goebel。回答你的問題,我們的行銷關係企業(marketing affiliate)現在就能把這些空間填滿,並捕捉我們看到的波動性。我們的預期是,當我們看到市場狀況時,會隨時間推進把它轉為合約化。

  • So the reason we executed on it earlier than expected is you saw a lot of volatility, you saw growing production. You saw a really short time period, very capital efficient. And you see on the demand side, new buyers on the market. So our marketing affiliate can fill that role until someone wants to take the space from us. So we can fill it quickly and then turn it to a term basis, which is our ultimate goal.

    所以我們之所以比預期更早執行,是因為你看到很多波動、看到產量成長。你也看到這是一個時間很短、資本效率很高的機會。而在需求端,你看到市場上出現新的買家。因此,在有人想把這些空間從我們手上接走之前,我們的行銷關係企業可以先扮演這個角色。也就是說,我們可以很快把它填滿,然後再把它轉成長約(term basis),這是我們的最終目標。

  • And then to your question on are there other opportunities. Our team continues to evaluate capital-efficient opportunities, and we'll update you as we have them.

    至於你問是否還有其他機會,我們團隊會持續評估資本效率高的機會,有進展時我們會再向各位更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    Manav Gupta,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. I wanted to go -- I know it's a little early, but I was thinking maybe you could talk a little bit about how 2027 is shaping up for you, the puts and takes, especially given the number of new pipelines expected, which will alleviate the Permian egress problem. So that crude could come to the market. So help us understand the puts and takes for 2027 versus 2026.

    各位早安。我想談一下——我知道現在可能還有點早——但我在想你們是否能稍微談談2027年目前看起來的輪廓、有哪些利多與利空(puts and takes),尤其是考量到預期會有多條新管線投產,將緩解二疊紀的外運(egress)問題,讓原油能進入市場。請幫我們理解2027年相較於2026年的利多與利空。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Manav, it's Willie. Let me try to address this. We're not going to give you guidance on '27 because the world continues to evolve. What we really want to convey to you is that longer term, whether it's the end of '26, early '27 is really going to be determined by how things shape up in the Middle East.

    Manav,我是 Willie。我來試著回應。我們不會提供2027年的指引,因為世界仍在持續演變。我們真正想傳達的是,從較長期來看,不論是2026年底或2027年初,將主要取決於中東局勢如何發展。

  • There remains a lot of uncertainty, as everyone knows. The oil markets are very extreme. But as we view this, as the longer this goes, the more you draw global inventories to low levels, the more important North America is going to be to providing fuel for the rest of the energy to the rest of the world.

    如大家所知,不確定性仍然很高。石油市場非常極端。但我們的看法是,這件事拖得越久、全球庫存被消耗到越低的水位,北美對於向世界其他地區提供能源燃料的重要性就會越高。

  • So everything we're doing is positioning us to be able to capture that when it comes. And you tell me the oil price, you tell me when things resolve, we can easily put a number together, but that's probably the extent I'll share on what our views are other than it being very constructive. And we've got a lot of momentum going into '27.

    因此,我們正在做的所有事情,都是在為能夠在機會來臨時把握住而定位。你告訴我油價是多少、你告訴我事情何時解決,我們很容易就能把數字算出來;但除了我們的看法非常建設性(very constructive)之外,這大概就是我能分享的程度。我們在邁向2027年時有很強的動能。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. My quick follow-up that I just wanted to understand from you is that your balance sheet is fixed. I think earlier in the year last year, you were looking at more bolt-on opportunities. Now I think you have looking at more organic growth projects also. Can you help us understand the balance between future growth driven by bolt-ons versus organic opportunities?

    很好。我有個很快的追問想了解:你們的資產負債表已經固定下來。我記得去年年初你們在看更多補強型(bolt-on)機會;現在我想你們也在看更多內生成長(organic growth)專案。你能幫我們理解未來成長在補強型併購與內生機會之間的平衡嗎?

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Manav, this is Willie again. The answer is we look at all of them. We've got lots of levers to pull. If the organic opportunities present themselves, we do it. If it's the bolt-ons, we execute on those. I'm really pleased where we are with our balance sheet where it is and the ability to pull levers. There are lots of different things, whether it's bolt-ons, whether it's CapEx, returning more cash to shareholders and even taking out the pref. Those are some of the options that we have. So it's a good position to be in, and we'll play the right card when the time comes.

    Manav,我還是 Willie。答案是:我們兩者都看。我們有很多可以拉動的槓桿。如果出現內生機會,我們就做;如果是補強型機會,我們就執行。我對目前資產負債表的狀況以及我們能運用槓桿的能力感到很滿意。我們有很多不同選項,不論是補強型、資本支出(CapEx)、把更多現金回饋給股東,甚至是把優先股(pref.)贖回/處理掉。這些都是我們的選項之一。所以這是個很好的位置;時機到了我們會打出正確的一張牌。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

    Praneeth Satish,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Great. Good morning, everyone. So just going back to the guidance, you raised the exit-to-exit Permian production growth by 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day on improving gas egress. But I guess your -- and you kind of had strong Q2 results, but you left the 2026 EBITDA guidance unchanged.

    很好。各位早安。我想回到指引:你們把二疊紀產量從期初到期末(exit-to-exit)的成長上調了每日100,000到200,000桶,原因是天然氣外運改善。但我想你們——而且你們第二季表現也很強——不過你們仍維持2026年 EBITDA 指引不變。

  • I guess intuitively, I would have expected at least some of those flush volumes to reach your system and contribute to earnings upside this year. So maybe you can just help us understand why the higher volume outlook doesn't necessarily translate into higher EBITDA guidance for this year and how you're thinking about the timing of when you realize those benefits?

    直覺上,我原本會預期至少有一部分這些「湧入」(flush)的量會進到你們的系統,並在今年帶來獲利上行。所以也許你們可以幫我們理解,為什麼更高的量能展望不一定會轉化為今年更高的 EBITDA 指引?以及你們如何看待何時能實現這些效益的時間點?

  • Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. This is Al. One quarter -- first quarter crude was kind of the low point for us. 2Q, we reported the $690 million I mentioned, which is up over $100 million from the first quarter. Our guide at the midpoint currently for the second half is above the $690 million. The math would say it'd be in the low [$700 million's]. So we've modeled in a very strong kind of exit to the year. We do believe that we will be seeing and capturing volumes. We had a bit of that in already, but we do expect really that this sets us up for the momentum that Willie mentioned for 2027 more so than a raise for the second half of the year since we've already modeled a pretty strong second half of the year.

    是的。我是 Al。第一季原油對我們來說算是低點。第二季我們報告了我提到的6.90億美元,比第一季高出超過1億美元。我們目前指引的中位數顯示,下半年會高於6.90億美元。按數學推算,會落在7億美元出頭。因此我們模型已經納入一個非常強勁的年末走勢。我們確實相信會看到並捕捉到量能;我們已經先反映了一部分,但我們更認為這主要是為 Willie 提到的2027年動能做準備,而不是在今年下半年再上調,因為我們已經在模型中假設今年下半年相當強勁。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe switching gears on the Cactus III expansion. So you guys have one of the last meaningful brownfield expansion opportunities in the Permian with Cactus. So I guess I'm just trying to understand how you balance adding incremental capacity versus just kind of maintaining a tighter market where you could benefit from stronger recontracting rates as it's been a tough slog the last few years.

    這很有幫助。接著換個角度談 Cactus III 擴建。你們在二疊紀的 Cactus 擁有少數最後幾個具規模的既有設施(brownfield)擴建機會之一。我想了解的是,你們如何在增加增量運能與維持較緊的市場之間取得平衡?因為過去幾年在重新簽約費率(recontracting rates)上一直是段艱難的過程,而較緊的市場可能讓你們受益於更強的重新簽約費率。

  • So I mean, I'm sure you've done some internal analysis on that trade-off. But I guess, with you going forward with this expansion, can we assume that the expected returns are compelling enough, I guess, to outweigh the benefits of a tighter market? Just how should we think about that?

    我想你們內部應該做過一些關於這種取捨的分析。但既然你們推進這次擴建,我們是否可以假設預期報酬足夠有吸引力,足以抵消較緊市場帶來的好處?我們應該如何看待這件事?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Praneeth, good question. This is Jeremy. First of all, the 75,000 barrels a day won't change the market. And our outlook for production is substantially higher than 75,000 barrels a day. So the market from a supply and demand takeaway will be net tighter. The economic returns is very capital efficient that's not in question. They'll be very good. From our standpoint, we're executing on it.

    Praneeth,問得好。我是 Jeremy。首先,每日75,000桶不會改變市場。而我們對產量的展望遠高於每日75,000桶。所以從供需與外運(takeaway)的角度來看,市場淨效果會更緊。經濟報酬方面,這個專案資本效率很高,這點沒有疑問;報酬會非常好。就我們的立場而言,我們會執行。

  • Basin is very well contracted. Cactus I is very well contracted. Cactus II is very well contracted, and we're working to continue on Cactus III. So we don't think this impacts our ability to contract at strong rates across the system. And we think the volatility will present some opportunities to pay for the expansion in a short period of time and give us the opportunity to contract more space.

    盆地(Basin)的合約覆蓋非常好。Cactus I 的合約覆蓋非常好。Cactus II 的合約覆蓋也非常好,而我們正在持續推進 Cactus III。我們不認為這會影響我們在整個系統以強勁費率簽約的能力。我們也認為波動性會帶來一些機會,讓擴建能在短時間內回本,並讓我們有機會再簽下更多運能空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JP Morgan Securities.

    Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通證券。

  • Francina Kolluri - Analyst

    Francina Kolluri - Analyst

  • Good morning, team. Thank you for taking questions. This is Francina on for Jeremy. Just wanted to dig a bit deeper on the guide that appears to kind of present declines outside of regions other than the Permian. Can you walk us through what you're seeing with volume expectations and kind of where that leads us in terms of puts and takes to the current maintained guide?

    各位早安,團隊。感謝接受提問。我是 Francina,代替 Jeremy 發言。想再更深入了解一下你們的指引;看起來似乎呈現出在二疊紀以外、其他地區出現下滑。能否帶我們梳理一下你們對量的預期,以及這會如何影響你們在目前維持的指引之下的各項增減因素(puts and takes)?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Sure. This is Jeremy. Look, we're seeing increased activity, the Permian has added 30 rigs from the trough. The Eagle Ford has added 10 rigs. The Powder River Basin is up 33%, so from 9 to 12 rigs. Canada continues to grow. So we're seeing opportunities across the system as evidenced by the expansion capital across the system. So from our standpoint, we're cautiously optimistic that, that will continue, and it should be good for both our assets in the Permian and outside the Permian. As for the guide, I think Al covered that.

    當然。我是 Jeremy。你看,我們看到活動增加,二疊紀自谷底以來已增加 30 座鑽機。Eagle Ford 增加了 10 座鑽機。Powder River Basin 增加了 33%,也就是從 9 座到 12 座鑽機。加拿大也持續成長。因此,我們在整個系統都看到機會,這也反映在我們在整個系統的擴張資本支出上。就我們的角度而言,我們審慎樂觀地認為這種趨勢會持續,對我們在二疊紀以及二疊紀以外的資產都會是好事。至於指引,我想 Al 已經說明過了。

  • We are certainly in position to continue to execute as volatility. The most volatile piece was the second quarter. The third quarter price volatility was slower. Volatility in margins across the regions got pretty narrow. It's just a different quarter. And so that the same situation because ships are moving all over the place could represent itself in the third and fourth quarter. So we certainly expect to continue to do as well as we can. But right now, we're maintaining guidance flat, but we think we're going to execute on what we've already put in the plan and hope to beat it.

    我們確實已就位,能在波動之下持續執行。最波動的部分是在第二季。第三季的價格波動較為放緩。各區域的利差波動也變得相當收斂。這就是一個不同的季度。而且由於船舶在各地移動,同樣的情況也可能在第三季與第四季再度出現。因此我們當然會期望持續把能做的做到最好。但目前我們維持指引不變,不過我們認為會按既定計畫執行,並希望能超越它。

  • Francina Kolluri - Analyst

    Francina Kolluri - Analyst

  • Thank you. That's helpful. And then I wanted to also touch on what you're seeing for the Canadian organic growth opportunity set and whether those opportunities more so present near term or longer term, if you could talk about that. Thank you.

    謝謝,這很有幫助。另外我也想談談你們看到的加拿大有機成長機會組合,以及這些機會是偏向近期還是較長期;若能說明一下就太好了。謝謝。

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Sure. We're very excited about Canada. The Clearwater around our Rainbow asset, we are continuing to add capacity. And every time we add it, it gets full. So we're excited about it, and those are long-term contracts. Same with our Rangeland asset, which sits in the Duvernay, and we can bring those either north to Edmonton or south to the US markets. So both of those areas are seeing capital. Our Manitou asset, which we haven't talked about much, is seeing activity -- substantial activity.

    當然。我們對加拿大非常興奮。位於我們 Rainbow 資產周邊的 Clearwater,我們持續增加產能;而且每次一增加就會被用滿。所以我們很期待,而且那些都是長期合約。我們的 Rangeland 資產也是如此,它位於 Duvernay,我們可以把這些量往北送到 Edmonton,或往南送到美國市場。這兩個區域都在投入資本。我們的 Manitou 資產——我們之前談得不多——也正在看到活動,且是相當可觀的活動。

  • There may be an opportunity to partner with some of the egress that's coming out of Canada. So I think we see a lot of opportunities in and around our gathering footprint and how that might fit with assets like our Cushing terminal or our Capline assets downstream. So I think we're excited about Canada and knock-on effects for the rest of our business.

    此外,對於從加拿大出來的部分外運(egress),可能也有機會與之合作。因此我認為,我們在自家集輸(gathering)版圖內外看到很多機會,以及這些機會如何與我們的 Cushing 終端或下游的 Capline 資產相互契合。所以我們對加拿大很興奮,也看好對我們其他業務的連鎖效應。

  • Francina Kolluri - Analyst

    Francina Kolluri - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Thank you, team. I'll leave it there.

    非常有幫助。謝謝各位,我就先到這裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    Spiro Dounis,花旗。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Good morning, team. I want to start off first with market-based opportunities. Can you maybe talk through the outlook into the second half of '26 and maybe where you still expect to see some areas for opportunities? And kind of just curious how you're thinking about differentials, volatility, curve structure, storage and how much of that is contemplated in the guide here?

    各位早安,團隊。我想先從市場型機會談起。你們能否談談 2026 年下半年展望,以及你們仍預期在哪些領域會看到一些機會?也想了解你們如何看待價差(differentials)、波動、期貨曲線結構、儲存,以及這些因素在這份指引中被納入考量的程度?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • This is Jeremy. We're not forecasting market-based opportunities other than what we've captured. So I think from our standpoint, if those opportunities present themselves, we will. We can play time, quality and location spreads across the system, and we will. And so from our standpoint, we feel very well positioned with where the guide is. And as volatility presents itself, we'll capture it just as we did in the second quarter.

    我是 Jeremy。我們不會去預測市場型機會,除了我們已經納入的部分。因此就我們而言,如果那些機會出現,我們就會把握。我們可以在整個系統中操作時間、品質與地點價差(spreads),而且我們會這麼做。所以從我們的角度來看,以目前的指引水準我們覺得定位非常好;而當波動出現時,我們會像第二季那樣把它捕捉下來。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Thanks, Jeremy. Second question, maybe just focusing on exports. if you're seeing changes in customer behavior. Jeremy, I know you mentioned seeing new customers show up. Curious if that applies to exports here. And how are you thinking about flows to Corpus versus Houston into the back half of '26?

    謝謝,Jeremy。第二個問題想聚焦在出口。你們是否看到客戶行為的變化?Jeremy,我知道你提到看到新客戶出現;好奇這是否也適用於出口端。以及你們如何看待 2026 年下半年流向 Corpus 相較於 Houston 的流量?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So yes, we are seeing different customers be interested instead of being spot purchasers or under term contracts only from the Middle East to look to expand where they purchase barrels for some level of security of supply. So that is a different behavior than we've seen. I think you've seen it across commodities as well. So we're going to continue to look at that as ability to term up additional space. Corpus versus Houston, look, both are very good markets.

    是的,我們確實看到不同的客戶開始感興趣:他們不再只是現貨買家,或僅在中東以定期合約採購,而是希望擴大採購原油的來源地,以取得某種程度的供應安全。這是我們過去未曾看到的不同作法。我想你在其他大宗商品上也看到了類似現象。我們會持續觀察,並視情況把更多庫容以定期合約方式鎖定。至於 Corpus 對比 Houston,你看,兩者都是非常好的市場。

  • The Corpus market does demand a premium. It's a single quality barrel that's WTI largely some TL Houston has got a broader mix of what gets exported. It's got more refining capacity. They're both very good markets. Both markets are largely tight. You've got close to 90% utilization in both markets. So we're cautiously optimistic that both will continue to grow as the markets tighten and get to back where you're closer to the longer-term margins where we'll contract additional space.

    Corpus 市場確實要求溢價。它主要是單一品質的原油,基本上是 WTI(也有一些 TL)。Houston 則是出口品項組合更廣,且有更多煉油產能。兩者都是很好的市場,而且兩個市場基本上都偏緊;兩邊的使用率都接近 90%。因此我們審慎樂觀地認為,隨著市場收緊並回到更接近長期的利潤水準,兩者都會持續成長,屆時我們也會再簽下更多庫容。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Spiro, this is Willie. You know our assets well, but I think the thing I wanted to highlight is on our visits with people, we've been talking about the market shifting to a demand pull model. We've been in a supply push model for quite some time with surplus supply in the world. I do think what you're -- the question that you're asking is really hitting on a key thing, which we believe is happening. With the inventorying of the global inventory of the crude supplies, this is really shifting to a demand pull market. And your question about others wanting to come and get access to barrels really as a security of supply is very true.

    Spiro,我是 Willie。你很了解我們的資產,但我想強調的是:在我們拜訪客戶時,我們一直在談市場正轉向「需求拉動」模式。過去相當長一段時間,我們處在「供給推動」模式,全球供給過剩。我確實認為你問到的重點正切中我們相信正在發生的事情。隨著全球原油庫存被去化,市場正真正轉向需求拉動。而你提到其他人想來取得原油的取得權、作為供應安全,這點非常真實。

  • And if you look back in the second quarter, we actually had record crude exports out of the Gulf Coast. And as these things typically work because you've got a long supply chain with ships, that shifted. And now we had more volumes going up to Cushing, but that could easily start shifting back as global events happen. So the key thing for us is we've got great assets that can play all these different options. Hard to exactly figure out what will happen, but when it will happen, we feel we'll be in the right place in time to be able to capture it.

    而且如果回頭看第二季,我們其實創下墨西哥灣沿岸原油出口的紀錄。通常這類事情的運作方式是:由於船舶供應鏈很長,流向會發生轉移;因此後來我們看到更多量往 Cushing 走,但隨著全球事件發生,這也很容易再轉回去。對我們而言的關鍵是:我們擁有很棒的資產,可以在這些不同選項之間靈活運用。很難精準判斷會發生什麼,但當它發生時,我們相信自己會在對的時間、對的位置,能夠把握住。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Great there, Willie. Appreciate the color today. Thank you, gentlemen.

    Willie,說得很好。感謝今天提供的細節。謝謝各位。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    Keith Stanley,Wolfe Research。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Only one question for me. I wanted to dig into the Cactus III economics a little more. So your Permian CapEx this year is only up $35 million. You have the $40 million earn-out. So it kind of implies the Cactus III project is, call it, $50 million to $75 million, which would be a really high return for you guys. So looking forward, how can we think about the cost of future phases of expansion of Cactus III? Do they get a lot more expensive than this? Or can you replicate this a few more times?

    嗨,早安。我只有一個問題。我想再深入了解一下 Cactus III 的經濟性。今年你們在二疊紀的資本支出只增加 3,500 萬美元,另外還有 4,000 萬美元的或有對價(earn-out)。這似乎暗示 Cactus III 專案大概是 5,000 萬到 7,500 萬美元的規模,對你們來說回報會非常高。往前看,我們該如何看待 Cactus III 未來各階段擴建的成本?會比這次貴很多嗎?還是你們可以再複製幾次?

  • Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of Plains All American GP LLC

    Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of Plains All American GP LLC

  • Hey, good morning, Keith, it's Chris Chandler. I'll take that. First, let's talk about the phase we just completed 75,000 barrels a day. Without sharing the exact number, I think you're reading into our numbers well in that -- the expansion we just completed was highly economic. We were able to do it for far less than we anticipated when we acquired the asset, able to do it more quickly. I would think of it in terms of tens of millions of dollars, and that doesn't include the earn-out that we disclosed in the slide. So very, very economic and very quick to market, as Jeremy shared.

    嗨,早安,Keith,我是 Chris Chandler。我來回答。首先談談我們剛完成的這一階段:每日 75,000 桶。在不透露確切數字的前提下,我認為你對我們數字的解讀很到位——我們剛完成的擴建具有非常高的經濟性。我們能以遠低於收購該資產時預期的成本完成,也能更快完成。我會把它視為「數千萬美元」等級的投入,而且這還不包含我們在投影片中揭露的 earn-out。因此非常、非常具經濟性,也非常快速上市(quick to market),如 Jeremy 所分享。

  • We're taking a close look at future expansion opportunities. Those will have to be backed by customer commitments, of course. But I think it's safe to say that the costs for those future phases are looking more economic than we originally premised as well when we acquired the asset. So we're really pleased overall, we've been able to capture the synergies with Cactus III and expansion opportunities are ready to go and look very economic when the customer support is firmed up.

    我們正在仔細評估未來的擴建機會。當然,這些都必須有客戶承諾作為支撐。不過我想可以很有把握地說,未來各階段的成本看起來也比我們當初收購該資產時的假設更具經濟性。因此整體而言我們非常滿意:我們已能捕捉 Cactus III 的協同效益,而擴建機會也已準備就緒;一旦客戶支持被確定下來,看起來會非常具經濟性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • AJ O'Donnell, TPH.

    AJ O'Donnell,TPH。

  • AJ O'Donnell - Equity Analyst

    AJ O'Donnell - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe if I could just follow on to the last question a little bit. Could you talk a little bit more about just kind of the economics of the expansion? Just thinking -- I believe you said the affiliate could fill the space right now. But as you work to contract that over the longer term, where do you kind of see the rates on that project falling? That's largely where they are at right now? Or does that get a premium?

    各位早安。也許我可以稍微延續上一個問題。能否再多談一點擴建的經濟性?我在想——我記得你提到關係企業(affiliate)現在就可以把空間填滿。但當你們在較長期間內逐步把這部分改為簽約時,你們怎麼看這個專案的費率會落在什麼水準?大致會跟現在差不多嗎?還是會有溢價?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Good question. It depends on how we contract that. If it's with the shippers that we have in the past, it's going to look just like the rates we disclosed last year and the year before when we did our recontracting efforts. So the long-term rates are in that ballpark, and we'll continue to look there. If we opportunistically find other markets, we will -- it all depends on the structure of the term and everything else. So we don't necessarily want to give away our playbook on the earnings call. But I would say, long term, expect it to be consistent with where we have been executing.

    好問題。這取決於我們怎麼去簽那份合約。如果是跟我們過去合作過的託運人(shippers)簽,費率看起來就會跟我們去年以及前年在重新簽約(recontracting)時所揭露的費率一樣。所以長期費率大概就在那個區間,我們也會持續朝那個方向看。如果我們機會性地找到其他市場,我們也會——一切都取決於合約期限的結構以及其他因素。所以我們不一定想在財報電話會議上把我們的策略手冊全都講出來。但我會說,長期來看,預期會與我們一直以來的執行水準保持一致。

  • AJ O'Donnell - Equity Analyst

    AJ O'Donnell - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just one more on Cactus III. I think in February, you kind of described stabilizing the base pipeline, then looking at capital efficient expansions. And then in May, you said an expansion would kind of be phased and paced to demand. And now that the first 75 is sanctioned, is the base pipeline fully recontracted and stabilized? And how soon could we expect to see additional phases?

    了解。很好。那再問一個關於 Cactus III 的問題。我記得你們在 2 月時提到先讓基礎管線穩定,然後再看資本效率高的擴建。而在 5 月時你們說擴建會依需求分階段、按節奏推進。現在第一個 75 已經核准(sanctioned)了,基礎管線是否已經完全重新簽約並穩定?另外,我們大概多久能看到後續階段?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Good question. So the duration of the next phases will be longer than this one. So I think it will take some time for the next phases. But as far as the base contract, we have sufficient demand right now to contract the pipeline, the expansion and the other, it's a matter of price. So I think we see sufficient demand to contract the base pipeline. As far as future expansions, they will take time to come up.

    好問題。下一些階段的期間會比這一階段更長。所以我認為下一些階段還需要一些時間。至於基礎合約,我們目前有足夠的需求來簽下管線、擴建以及其他部分;剩下就是價格的問題。所以我認為我們看到足夠的需求可以把基礎管線簽下來。至於未來的擴建,它們需要時間才會逐步成形。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • And AJ, this is Willie. I think a lot of that really depends on my earlier comments about how many -- how much people need the barrels back to that demand pull, right? We're talking -- what Jeremy is talking about is it's basically ideally a longer-term contract. It's the tenor versus the price, and that's going to evolve. And at some point, we think it's going to continue to be scarce, and that's why we're pretty constructive with the market going forward, including the export markets.

    AJ,我是 Willie。我認為很多其實取決於我先前提到的——大家到底需要多少桶數回到那個需求拉動(demand pull),對吧?我們在談——Jeremy 講的是,理想上基本上是較長期的合約。這是期限(tenor)相對於價格的取捨,而這會持續演變。在某個時間點,我們認為供給仍會持續稀缺,這也是為什麼我們對未來市場(包括出口市場)相當偏正面(constructive)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jackie Koletas, Goldman Sachs.

    Jackie Koletas,高盛。

  • Jackie Koletas - Analyst

    Jackie Koletas - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for the time. Just thought I'd follow up on a question quickly. You reiterated your confidence in capturing that the $50 million of cost efficiencies by the end of this year and then another in 2027. Can you just provide us a progress update here on where these savings are physically materializing? And what could drive incremental efficiencies from here?

    嗨,早安。非常感謝撥冗。我想快速追問一下。你們重申有信心在今年底前達成 5,000 萬美元的成本效率,然後在 2027 年再達成另一筆。你們能否更新一下目前這些節省實際上是在哪些地方落地實現?以及接下來還可能由哪些因素帶來額外的效率提升?

  • Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of Plains All American GP LLC

    Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President of Plains All American GP LLC

  • Good morning, Jack, it's Chris Chandler. Yeah, we've made good progress on our commitment to capture $50 million in 2026 of efficiencies. Certainly, the NGL sale was a catalyst in that area, but not by any means the entire driver. We've made a number of changes that contribute to that $50 million and an additional $50 million that we expect to capture in 2027.

    早安,Jack,我是 Chris Chandler。是的,我們在兌現 2026 年取得 5,000 萬美元效率提升的承諾上已取得不錯進展。當然,NGL 出售是其中一個催化劑,但絕不是唯一的驅動因素。我們做了多項調整,促成這 5,000 萬美元,以及我們預期在 2027 年再取得額外 5,000 萬美元。

  • But I think in terms of reassessing and streamlining our organizational structure, looking at the number of employees we have in leadership and management roles. We're more focused and crude oil pure-play company. So that demands a different level of oversight and a different approach to how we run the business and our business processes.

    我想就重新評估並精簡組織架構而言,我們檢視了擔任領導與管理職務的員工人數。我們現在更聚焦、成為原油純粹型(pure-play)公司。因此,這需要不同程度的監督,以及不同的方式來經營業務與管理我們的業務流程。

  • We've done some targeted rightsizing of our trucking business, closed and consolidated some marketing offices and just taking a fresh look at everything we do and how we do it from a business process standpoint. So as to capture year-to-date, it's fair to say we've realized a little less than half of the $50 million so far this year and we're on track to capture the remaining by year-end 2026. And again, we feel good about capturing an additional $50 million in 2027. I hope that helps.

    我們也針對卡車運輸業務做了一些有針對性的規模調整(rightsizing),關閉並整併了一些行銷辦公室,並從業務流程的角度重新檢視我們做的每一件事以及做法,以便提升效率。就今年迄今而言,可以說我們已實現的節省略低於 5,000 萬美元的一半,而且我們按計畫在 2026 年底前取得剩餘部分。同樣地,我們也對在 2027 年再取得額外 5,000 萬美元感到有信心。希望這有幫助。

  • Jackie Koletas - Analyst

    Jackie Koletas - Analyst

  • No, very helpful. I appreciate it. And then just a follow-up on the Canadian gathering system. Just thought you could talk a little bit more about the moving pieces are overall, the incremental Canadian egress and a little bit more color on what you're thinking about the timing there and then potential size capacity on Rangeland.

    有,非常有幫助,謝謝。接著想追問加拿大集輸系統(gathering system)。想請你們再多談一些整體的變動因素,包括加拿大額外外運能力(egress)的增量,並補充一下你們對時程的想法,以及 Rangeland 潛在的容量規模。

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Good question. So I think from our standpoint, think of Rangeland as a gathering system. And so the expansions there are filling latent capacity. The Rainbow is an expansion of capacity of the mainline and building laterals. As far as egress goes, first, we'll look to fill our existing, which we do on (inaudible) in Rangeland today. I think there are some other more capital-efficient projects that will probably go. It may be something that we work with those counterparties on opportunities, like I said, around Capline and Cushing and other locations. I wouldn't -- I don't think the Rangeland expansion would be competitive with some of those projects based on scale.

    好問題。以我們的角度來看,把 Rangeland 視為一個集輸系統。因此,那邊的擴建是在填補既有的閒置容量(latent capacity)。Rainbow 則是主幹線(mainline)容量的擴增並建置支線(laterals)。至於外運(egress),首先我們會先把既有的容量填滿——我們今天在 Rangeland 的(inaudible)就是這樣做。我認為還有一些資本效率更高的專案可能會推進。也可能是我們與那些交易對手(counterparties)一起合作一些機會,就像我提到的,圍繞 Capline、Cushing 以及其他地點。我不會——我不認為 Rangeland 的擴建在規模上會比那些專案更具競爭力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Daoud, Truist.

    Gabe Daoud,Truist。

  • Gabriel Daoud - Analyst

    Gabriel Daoud - Analyst

  • Hey, morning, team. I was hoping to maybe just ask another Permian macro question. Any views just given conversations with producers now for '27, any views on where the rig count could go from here? And then just trying to frame when you think there could be an acceleration in crude volumes at a basin level, maybe approaching 8 million barrels per day? Because I think that's probably what the basin hits by 2030. But if crude remains elevated, I'd imagine you could maybe see some acceleration. So curious maybe what your overall views are on that.

    各位早安,團隊。我想再問一個二疊紀(Permian)的總體問題。就你們現在與生產商對 2027 年的對話來看,對鑽機數(rig count)接下來可能走到哪裡有什麼看法嗎?另外我也想釐清你們認為盆地層級的原油量何時可能加速成長,例如接近每日 800 萬桶?因為我想這大概是該盆地到 2030 年會達到的水準。但如果原油價格維持在高檔,我想可能會看到一些加速。所以想聽聽你們整體的看法。

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So first of all, the gas egress has come on quicker than we expected. And with that, as you've seen with the G&P operators, their plants are filling up quickly. The same is occurring. So the 100 to 200, we are seeing volume from July into August that trends probably favorably to those numbers. So we could see it go -- we have a positive bias based on the last few weeks. So from our standpoint, as Willie mentioned, positive momentum going into 2027. Look, Willie mentioned that you have to give us a price, you have to give us the economic background, but productivity has improved.

    首先,天然氣外運能力(gas egress)到位的速度比我們預期更快。隨之而來的是,如你所見,G&P(集輸與處理)業者的處理廠很快就滿載。同樣的情況也正在發生。所以就 100 到 200(的增量)而言,我們看到 7 月到 8 月的量趨勢可能有利於落在那些數字附近。因此我們可能會看到它上行——基於過去幾週的情況,我們偏正面。從我們的角度來看,如 Willie 提到的,進入 2027 年有正向動能。你看,Willie 提到你得給我們一個價格、得給我們經濟背景,但生產力確實提升了。

  • So the 260 rigs you see today are more efficient than the 260 rigs you saw in 2025. So we're excited about the opportunity to grow through the second half of this year and into next year. And it's just a matter of the duration of that as to where the basin gets to. So you see a very favorable path to get to north of 7 million barrels a day, continued improvements on recoveries reducing breakeven prices and supportive commodity prices will be required to get to 8 million barrels a day, but it's not an unreasonable scenario. We're just -- like Willie said, you got to tell us the backdrop and tell us where the basin gets to.

    所以你今天看到的 260 座鑽機,比起你在 2025 年看到的 260 座鑽機更有效率。因此我們對今年下半年到明年的成長機會感到興奮。接下來就取決於這樣的狀態能持續多久,盆地最終會走到哪個水準。所以你會看到一條非常有利的路徑,讓產量提升到每日 700 萬桶以上;要到每日 800 萬桶,則需要持續提升採收率(recoveries)、降低損益兩平價格(breakeven prices),以及商品價格的支撐,但這並不是不合理的情境。我們只是——如 Willie 所說,你得告訴我們大環境,告訴我們盆地會走到哪裡。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Gabe, it's Willie. You've heard many of the other calls. And as I look at the transcripts and the summaries of them, there are a number of the producers that have really touted the ability to produce more. So that's good, right? We want to be able to -- we want our industry to produce at the most efficient and economic point, and I think people are starting to crack the code on that.

    Gabe,我是 Willie。你也聽了很多其他公司的電話會議。當我看那些逐字稿與摘要時,有不少生產商都大力強調他們有能力產出更多。所以這是好事,對吧?我們希望——我們希望我們的產業能在最有效率、最具經濟性的點上生產,而我認為大家正開始找到其中的關鍵。

  • Gabriel Daoud - Analyst

    Gabriel Daoud - Analyst

  • No, that's right, Willie. A lot of operators have highlighted surfactants and other technologies to improve productivity and recovery factors. So that could also be a tailwind, as you noted. Maybe just a quick follow-up. So in the conversations, is there a specific price for '27 where you feel operators could be a bit more active? I see 70 on the screen now for '27. Is it 75 get folks more excited? Just curious from your conversations if there's a signal that seems like pretty obvious as to where producers could add.

    不,沒錯,Willie。許多營運商都強調使用界面活性劑與其他技術來提升生產力與採收率。所以如你所說,這也可能成為一股順風。也許再快速追問一下:在你們的對話中,對於 27 年是否有一個特定價格水準,讓你覺得營運商會更積極一些?我現在在螢幕上看到 27 年是 70。是到 75 會讓大家更興奮嗎?只是好奇,從你們的交流中,是否有一個很明顯的訊號,顯示生產商會在什麼價位開始加碼。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • I'll let Jeremy forecast the price.

    我讓 Jeremy 來預測價格。

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Less about price, but more about activity. So your first question was where could you see incremental activity. I think you've heard a number of operators talk about deeper benches in the Midland Basin being very productive. And I think you'll continue to see capital move into those. In the Delaware Basin, New Mexico continues to expand in all directions.

    與其說是價格,不如說是活動量。你第一個問題是在哪裡可能看到增量活動。我想你已經聽到不少營運商談到二疊紀米德蘭盆地(Midland Basin)更深層的層段(benches)非常高產。我認為你會持續看到資本流向那些地方。在德拉瓦盆地(Delaware Basin),新墨西哥州仍在各個方向擴張。

  • Vertically, they keep going to find other benches. And then horizontally, it keeps going north and to the West. And so from our standpoint, New Mexico continues to expand and surprise to the upside. You're even seeing some of the deeper benches work in areas like the Woodford and Barnett and the Delaware Basin in certain areas. So I think the basin continues to expand its resource base, and we're excited about that because it sits under our footprint.

    在垂直方向,他們持續往下找其他層段;在水平方向,則持續往北、往西延伸。因此就我們的角度來看,新墨西哥州持續擴張,且上行驚喜不斷。你甚至會看到在某些區域,像是 Woodford、Barnett,以及德拉瓦盆地的一些地帶,更深層的層段也開始奏效。所以我認為這個盆地持續擴大其資源基礎,我們對此感到興奮,因為它位於我們的營運版圖之下。

  • Gabriel Daoud - Analyst

    Gabriel Daoud - Analyst

  • Awesome. Great color. Thank you.

    太棒了。很有幫助的補充。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    Theresa Chen,巴克萊(Barclays)。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my questions. Willie, going back to your comments about your organization's ability to capture tailwinds from this macro environment and some of, I think, Jeremy's comments to earlier questions. Just looking at the past several months of heightened market volatility, has anything about the performance of your commercial organization exceeded your expectations? Are there specific examples where the team was able to capitalize on market dislocations or emerging opportunities in ways that surprised you?

    謝謝讓我提問。Willie,回到你提到貴組織能夠在這個總體環境中掌握順風,以及我想 Jeremy 對先前問題的一些回應。回顧過去幾個月市場波動加劇,你們商業團隊的表現是否有任何地方超出你的預期?是否有具體例子顯示團隊能以讓你意外的方式,利用市場錯位或新出現的機會?

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Theresa, one, it's good to hear your voice. The answer is there's a lot of -- we've got a good team that captures different opportunities. And while not getting into all of the different strategies we've had, I would point to the response and being able to get barrels down to the Gulf Coast. We had record exports during the second quarter. We were able to basically source barrels and help facilitate moving those. So that volume -- that's one of our strategies. We've been able to capture some volumes or values around the shape of the forward curve that has been good.

    Theresa,第一,很高興聽到你的聲音。答案是:有很多——我們有一支很強的團隊,能掌握不同的機會。在不深入談我們所有策略的前提下,我會指出其中一點:我們的反應速度,以及把原油桶數(barrels)送到墨西哥灣沿岸(Gulf Coast)的能力。我們在第二季創下出口新高。我們基本上能夠取得貨源並協助促成運輸。所以那個量——那是我們的策略之一。我們也能在遠期曲線形狀所帶來的量或價值上,抓到一些不錯的機會。

  • And the other piece of value that always comes, it's not the market opportunities, but it's the discussions that we have with our producer partners on where their pinch points are that set up for some of these capital projects that we are now putting into place. Oil price level itself, we stand to gain on PLA. I think as Al shared, we've got a little bit of PLA left to hedge. We've captured -- we hedged a good portion of that going into this year, and so we didn't have a lot much to play with, but we still have some barrels out there that could help us for the rest of the year. Hopefully, that helps you.

    另外一塊價值來源一向存在:不是市場機會本身,而是我們與生產商夥伴討論他們的瓶頸點,進而促成我們現在正在推動的一些資本專案。就油價水準而言,我們在 PLA 上有機會受益。我想如 Al 所分享,我們還有一點 PLA 可以做避險。我們在今年初已經對其中很大一部分做了避險,所以可操作的空間不算多,但我們仍有一些桶數在外面,可能在今年剩餘時間幫到我們。希望這能回答你的問題。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • It does. Thank you.

    有的。謝謝。

  • And in terms of capturing marketing-related earnings related to wide quality differentials, clearly, there are a lot of variables at play here. Specifically, how do you think about the growing volume of Venezuelan barrels in the Gulf Coast, increasing heavy supply in PADD III, coupled with incremental Westbound egress for WCS over time, whether that be a TMX expansion or 1 million barrel per day West Coast oil pipeline, how does that change your views on heavy differentials across North America and your marketing and optimization opportunities there as a result?

    另外,關於在品質價差擴大時捕捉行銷相關獲利,顯然這裡有很多變數在作用。具體來說,你如何看待:委內瑞拉原油流入墨西哥灣沿岸的量增加、PADD III 的重油供給上升,再加上 WCS 隨時間增加的向西外運能力(不論是 TMX 擴建,或是每日 100 萬桶的西岸原油管線),這些因素會如何改變你對北美重油價差的看法,以及因此帶來的行銷與最佳化機會?

  • Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Jeremy Goebel - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Theresa, good question. It's a very dynamic question. The pace of growth in Canada and the pace of growth in Venezuela will dictate that, right? And if you pull the Saudi barrels out of the Gulf Coast and you have more Venezuela coming in, maybe that's somewhat of a dislocation. But realistically, as Venezuela pushes in, it pushes Canadian back and widens those differentials a bit and there are spreads with heavy differentials across grades, but the West Coast could add egress. So it's a function of how quickly is egress added in Canada, how quickly does Venezuela production get to the Gulf Coast and can it grow on a sustained basis versus production.

    Theresa,問得好。這是一個非常動態的問題。加拿大的成長速度與委內瑞拉的成長速度將會決定結果,對吧?如果把沙烏地的桶數從墨西哥灣沿岸抽走,而有更多委內瑞拉進來,也許會形成某種錯位。但更現實地說,當委內瑞拉推進時,會把加拿大的桶數擠回去,讓那些價差稍微擴大;而在不同等級之間,重油價差也會出現利差。不過西岸可能會增加外運能力。所以這取決於:加拿大外運能力增加得多快、委內瑞拉產量多快能到墨西哥灣沿岸,以及它能否在可持續的基礎上成長(相對於產量)。

  • So you have those 3 things dictating it, and they're all moving at different speeds. And so any time there's a dislocation, our team can capture it, but our preference is first to move it. So we'll look to move barrels. And if there's dislocations that we can capture, we will. So I think from our standpoint, growth is good, dislocations are good, and we'll help our customers get around those dislocations.

    所以有這三件事在主導,而它們的變動速度都不一樣。因此只要出現錯位,我們的團隊就能把握,但我們的首要偏好是先把貨移動出去。所以我們會先著眼於移動桶數;若有我們能捕捉的錯位,我們也會去做。因此就我們而言,成長是好事、錯位也是好事,我們會協助客戶繞過這些錯位。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • And Theresa, this is Bill -- on the Venezuela question, if it was around our views on heavy barrels coming into the Gulf Coast, I think it's healthy because those barrels are originally designed for the Gulf Coast, and that pushes barrels back, which allows us to have more opportunities with that.

    Theresa,我是 Bill——就委內瑞拉的問題而言,如果你是在問我們對重油流入墨西哥灣沿岸的看法,我認為這是健康的,因為那些桶數原本就是為墨西哥灣沿岸的煉廠設計的,而這會把其他桶數往回推,讓我們在那方面有更多機會。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sunil Sibal, Seaport Global.

    Sunil Sibal,Seaport Global。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • So first of all, just a clarification. I think Al mentioned that in Q2, you had $14 million of environmental remediation expense. I was curious, is there any impact of that in the second half also in terms of your efforts on that front?

    首先,想釐清一下。我想 Al 提到第二季你們有 1,400 萬美元的環境整治費用。我想了解的是:在下半年你們在這方面的工作,是否也會有任何影響?

  • Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • This is Al. No, they were one-off. We do not expect that to recur in the second half.

    我是 Al。不會,那是一次性項目。我們不預期下半年會再發生。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Okay. Then obviously, a lot of discussion on today's call on Permian as well as Canadian opportunities. I was curious, as you think about the $400 million to $450 million of CapEx spend that you CapEx spend that you incurring forward here, are there other regions or any specific regions where you see outsized opportunities?

    好的。那麼,今天電話會議中對二疊紀以及加拿大機會有很多討論。我想問的是:當你們考量未來將投入的 4 億到 4.5 億美元資本支出(CapEx)時,是否還有其他地區或任何特定地區,你們看到特別突出的機會?

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Sunil, this is Willie. The better chance to get higher returns are around our assets. And while we don't target assets only by region, if we've got strong returns anywhere along our value chain, we consider it. But the chances are it's going to be in the areas that have more activity. But we remain very, very disciplined on our thresholds, and it's more return-driven and strategy driven than region driven.

    Sunil,我是 Willie。較有機會取得更高報酬的地方,通常是在我們資產周邊。雖然我們不會只按地區來鎖定資產,但只要在我們價值鏈的任何環節看到強勁報酬,我們都會考慮。不過很可能會是在活動更熱絡的區域。但我們在門檻上仍非常、非常自律;我們更偏向以報酬與策略為驅動,而不是以地區為驅動。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Okay. So you're implying, Willie here, that $400 million to $450 million, it's -- you can basically get through that in those 2 regions primarily, right?

    了解。所以你的意思是,Willie,這 4 億到 4.5 億美元——基本上主要在那兩個地區就能花完,對吧?

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • That'd be a good assumption.

    這會是一個合理的假設。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Willie Chiang for closing remarks.

    謝謝。目前我這邊顯示沒有其他問題。現在我想把時間交回給 Willie Chiang 做結語。

  • Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

    Willie Chiang - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

  • Thanks, Daniel, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward and are excited to see you on the road. Take care, and have a safe weekend.

    謝謝,Daniel,也謝謝各位今天加入我們。我們期待並很高興在路演行程中與各位見面。保重,祝各位週末平安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。