Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the PAA and PAGP first-quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Blake Fernandez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

各位早安，歡迎參加 PAA 與 PAGP 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，本次通話將被錄音。我現在想把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Blake Fernandez。請開始。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to Plains All American first-quarter 2026 earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at ir.plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call.

謝謝你，Michelle。各位早安，歡迎參加 Plains All American 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的簡報已張貼於投資人關係網站 ir.plains.com 的「News and Events」區。今日會議結束後也將提供音訊重播。

Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on slide 3. A condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix.

有關前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的重要揭露載於投影片第 2 頁。今日會議流程概覽載於投影片第 3 頁。PAGP 的簡明合併調節資產負債表及其他參考資料收錄於附錄。

Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chairman, CEO and President; and Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, along with other members of our management team. With that, I'll turn the call over to Willie.

今日會議由董事長、執行長兼總裁 Willie Chiang 與執行副總裁兼財務長 Al Swanson 主持，並有我們管理團隊其他成員一同參與。接下來我把電話交給 Willie。

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we reported first-quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $730 million. Al will cover the details on our results in his portion of the call.

謝謝你，Blake。各位早安，感謝各位加入我們。今天早上，我們公布第一季歸屬於 Plains 的調整後 EBITDA 為 7.30 億美元。Al 將在他發言的部分說明我們業績的細節。

Let me start with the macro environment, which has changed significantly since our last call. Recent geopolitical events have reiterated the importance of reliable, secure, and responsibly produced energy. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted global shipping channels and Middle East supply, contributing to stronger commodity prices over the past couple of months.

我先從總體環境談起，自上次電話會議以來已出現顯著變化。近期地緣政治事件再次凸顯可靠、安全且負責任生產的能源之重要性。荷姆茲海峽的關閉已大幅擾亂全球航運通道與中東供給，促使過去幾個月商品價格走強。

In response, excess floating storage has been drawn down, and strategic petroleum reserves are being released globally. While this helps balance the market deficit on a short-term basis, we are seeing a more constructive oil market developing on a longer-term basis.

作為回應，過剩的海上浮式儲存已被消化，全球也正在釋放戰略石油儲備。雖然這有助於在短期內平衡市場缺口，但從較長期來看，我們看到油市正朝更具建設性的方向發展。

We expect this destocking environment to continue over the next number of months and ultimately drive a restocking phenomenon longer-term, longer-term as countries replenish depleted strategic petroleum reserves globally. Post-war, we would not be surprised to see several countries restock their SDRs above pre-war levels, essentially creating an additional layer of demand into the future, which should support prices and incent producer activity.

我們預期這種去庫存環境將在未來數月持續，並最終在更長期帶動補庫現象，因各國將在全球範圍內補充已消耗的戰略石油儲備。戰後，我們不會意外看到多個國家把其 SDRs 補庫至高於戰前水準，等同於在未來形成額外一層需求，這應可支撐價格並激勵生產商活動。

On the supply side, OpEx production capacity post-war remains uncertain. But we suspect spare capacity will be tighter based on a slower recovery of shut-in production and infrastructure damage during the war. We believe the conflict shifts the focus towards more geopolitically stable regions to ensure security of supply.

在供給端，戰後 OpEx 的產能仍不確定。但我們推測，因停產產量復原較慢以及戰爭期間基礎設施受損，閒置產能將更為吃緊。我們認為，這場衝突將使市場更聚焦於地緣政治更穩定的地區，以確保供應安全。

Against this backdrop, North America, including the Permian, remain well-positioned to play a critical role in meeting global demand. As this occurs, the value of existing infrastructure in the ground should continue to increase over time.

在此背景下，北美（包括二疊紀盆地）仍具備良好條件，在滿足全球需求方面扮演關鍵角色。隨著此趨勢發展，既有在地基礎設施的價值應會隨時間持續提升。

For these reasons, we believe Plains is well positioned for both the near-term volatility and longer-term macro environment. Based on these market dynamics and the growth trajectory that we see for our business, we have increased our initial 2026 EBITDA guidance.

基於上述原因，我們認為 Plains 對於短期波動與長期總體環境皆具備良好定位。依據這些市場動態以及我們所見的業務成長軌跡，我們已上調 2026 年初始 EBITDA 指引。

As highlighted on slide 4, we're increasing the midpoint of our full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $130 million to $2.88 billion. The NGL segment EBITDA is now expected to be $170 million this year, following first-quarter outperformance of $45 million and the updated divestiture timing now in May 2026.

如投影片第 4 頁所示，我們將 2026 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引中位數上調 1.30 億美元至 28.8 億美元。NGL 事業部今年的 EBITDA 目前預期為 1.70 億美元，反映第一季超預期表現 4,500 萬美元，以及資產剝離時點更新為 2026 年 5 月。

Our trajectory of growth this year is underpinned by three key drivers, the sale of our NGL assets, Cactus III synergy capture and streamlining. The growth of our EBITDA is paced with the execution of these initiatives and is enhanced by capturing optimization opportunities that have been substantially secured over the next three quarters.

我們今年的成長軌跡由三項關鍵驅動因素支撐：出售 NGL 資產、Cactus III 協同效益的實現，以及精簡化。EBITDA 的成長節奏與這些計畫的執行相一致，並因把握在未來三個季度已大幅鎖定的最佳化機會而進一步提升。

We're also seeing increased producer interest in both Canada and the US for additional connections to our system. The combination of all these factors will ramp up through the year and position us well into the future. Our premier crude oil footprint continues to support stable fee-based cash flows in a variety of macro backdrops.

我們也看到加拿大與美國的生產商對於連接至我們系統的額外接點興趣提升。上述因素的綜合作用將在今年逐步加速，並使我們在未來保持良好定位。我們首屈一指的原油版圖在各種總體情境下，持續支撐穩定的以費率為基礎的現金流。

As global markets turn to North America for long-term energy supply, we are well positioned across key producing basins and downstream markets to drive multi-year growth. We are committed to our efficient growth strategy, generating significant free cash flow, optimizing our assets, maintaining a flexible balance sheet, and continuing to return cash to unitholders via our disciplined capital allocation framework.

隨著全球市場轉向北美作為長期能源供應來源，我們在主要產區盆地與下游市場均具備良好布局，可推動多年期成長。我們致力於高效率的成長策略，創造可觀的自由現金流、最佳化資產、維持具彈性的資產負債表，並透過嚴謹的資本配置框架持續向單位持有人返還現金。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Al to cover our quarterly performance and other financial matters.

接下來我把電話交給 Al，請他說明我們的季度表現與其他財務事項。

Thanks, Willie. Slide 5 and 6 contain adjusted EBITDA walks that provide additional details on our performance. For the first quarter, we reported Crude Oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $582 million, which was broadly in line with our internal estimate and includes a full-quarter contribution from the Cactus III acquisition, offset by a number of one-off items, including winter weather impacts in the Permian, system maintenance, and timing of minimum volume commitments.

謝謝你，Willie。投影片第 5 與第 6 頁包含調整後 EBITDA 的變動分析，提供我們表現的更多細節。第一季，我們的原油事業部調整後 EBITDA 為 5.82 億美元，大致符合我們的內部估計，並包含 Cactus III 併購案整季的貢獻，但被若干一次性項目所抵銷，包括二疊紀盆地冬季天候影響、系統維護，以及最低量承諾的時點因素。

Moving to the NGL segment, we reported an adjusted EBITDA of $145 million, reflecting a stronger-than-expected contribution from higher straddle production and improving frac spreads in March. A summary of 2026 guidance and key assumptions are on slide 7.

接著看 NGL 事業部，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.45 億美元，反映跨價差（straddle）產量高於預期，以及 3 月分餾價差（frac spreads）改善帶來的更強貢獻。2026 年指引摘要與主要假設載於投影片第 7 頁。

Growth capital remained $350 million, while maintenance capital was increased to $185 million, reflecting ownership of the NGL assets into May. Regarding the $130 million increase in EBITDA guidance, key drivers are outlined in the waterfall on slide 8.

成長資本支出維持 3.50 億美元，而維護資本支出上調至 1.85 億美元，反映我們將持有 NGL 資產至 5 月。關於 EBITDA 指引上調 1.30 億美元，其主要驅動因素已在投影片第 8 頁的瀑布圖中說明。

The NGL segment increased by $70 million, driven by outperformance in the first quarter, along with the ownership of NGL assets into May. The Oil segment was increased by $60 million, driven by captured optimization opportunities for tariff escalators, increased spot tariff volumes, and increased West Coast volumes. To the extent that elevated commodity environment persists into the second half of the year, we would expect to capture incremental opportunities.

NGL 事業部上調 7,000 萬美元，主要由第一季超預期表現以及持有 NGL 資產至 5 月所帶動。原油事業部上調 6,000 萬美元，主要來自已掌握的最佳化機會，包括費率調升（tariff escalators）、現貨費率量增加，以及西岸量增加。若高商品價格環境延續至下半年，我們預期可把握更多增量機會。

For 2026 guidance, we continue to assume Permian crude oil production to be relatively flat year over year. While we have yet to see a meaningful shift in US producer behavior, any increase in activity would likely benefit 2027 and beyond. We expect an improving back end of the crude oil curve and removal of natural gas takeaway constraints as new egress projects start up later this year to drive incremental activity throughout the year.

在 2026 年指引方面，我們仍假設二疊紀原油產量年對年大致持平。雖然我們尚未看到美國生產商行為出現明顯轉變，但任何活動增加很可能將使 2027 年及以後受益。我們預期原油遠期曲線後段改善，以及隨著今年稍晚新的外運（egress）專案啟動而解除天然氣外送限制，將在全年推動增量活動。

As illustrated on slide 9, we remain committed to generating significant free cash flow and returning capital to unitholders while maintaining financial flexibility. For 2026, we expect to generate approximately $1.85 billion of adjusted free cash flow, excluding changes in assets and liabilities and excluding sales proceeds from the NGL divestiture.

如投影片第 9 頁所示，我們仍致力於在維持財務彈性的同時，創造可觀的自由現金流並向單位持有人返還資本。2026 年，我們預期可產生約 18.5 億美元的調整後自由現金流，不含資產與負債變動，亦不含 NGL 資產剝離的出售所得。

Our pro forma leverage at the end of the first quarter was 4.1 times, reflecting the Cactus III acquisition. First-quarter leverage pro forma for the NGL sale would decrease to approximately 3.5 times, and we would expect leverage to migrate toward the low end of our target range of 3.25 to 3.75 times by the end of the year. We expect net proceeds from the NGL sale to be approximately $3.3 billion, which is approximately $100 million higher than our prior estimate.

第一季末我們的備考槓桿倍數為 4.1 倍，反映 Cactus III 併購案。若將 NGL 出售納入備考，第一季槓桿倍數將降至約 3.5 倍；我們預期槓桿倍數將在年底前朝我們目標區間 3.25 至 3.75 倍的低端移動。我們預期 NGL 出售的淨收益約為 33 億美元，較先前估計高約 1 億美元。

Our acquisition of Cactus III last year has mitigated the tax liability to unitholders resulting from the NGL divestiture. As a result, we no longer expect to pay a special distribution following the closing of the NGL sale.

我們去年收購 Cactus III，已減輕因出售 NGL 資產而導致對單位持有人產生的稅負。因此，我們不再預期在 NGL 出售完成交割後支付特別分配。

Before handing it back to Willie, I would note that both current and deferred taxes are elevated on the statement of operations this quarter because of the restructuring activities associated with the NGL sale. There was no cash tax impact in the quarter as payment of the related taxes will be made in conjunction with closing or in future periods.

在把話筒交回給 Willie 之前，我想指出，本季損益表上的當期與遞延所得稅都偏高，原因是與 NGL 出售相關的重組活動。本季沒有現金稅負影響，因為相關稅款將在交割時或未來期間支付。

With that, I will turn the call back to Willie.

接下來，我把電話會議交回給 Willie。

Thanks, Al. In the midst of volatile energy markets, we remain steadfast and focused on executing our three initiatives for 2026: closing the NGL sale, driving synergies on Cactus III, and advancing our streamlining initiatives. Our efficient growth strategy has positioned as well to execute through a range of market environments, generating durable cash flow and creating long-term value. Importantly, the improving oil macro environment is starting to present additional organic investment opportunities with strong returns.

謝謝你，Al。在能源市場波動之際，我們仍堅定並專注於執行 2026 年的三項倡議：完成 NGL 出售、推動 Cactus III 的協同效益，以及推進我們的精簡化計畫。我們的高效率成長策略，使我們能在各種市場環境中執行，產生持久的現金流並創造長期價值。重要的是，油市總體環境的改善，正開始帶來更多具高報酬的有機投資機會。

We continue to evaluate both organic and inorganic opportunities in a disciplined manner. Capital investments help underpin long-term EBITDA growth, but they must meet our return thresholds and provide visibility into future return of capital to unitholders. Our transition to a pure-play crude (inaudible) company, culpable with the acquisition of Cactus III, is proving timely, as tensions in the Middle East position North America as a key source of global energy supply into the future.

我們持續以嚴謹紀律評估有機與無機機會。資本投資有助於支撐長期 EBITDA 成長，但必須符合我們的報酬門檻，並能讓單位持有人對未來資本回饋具備可見度。我們轉型為純原油（聽不清）公司，加上收購 Cactus III，時機恰到好處；隨著中東緊張局勢升溫，北美將在未來成為全球能源供應的關鍵來源。

Before I turn the call over to Blake, I'd like to make a brief comment about our pending transaction with Keyera. In terms of timing, as reported by both Keyera and Plains in separate releases earlier this week, we're targeting to close the transaction this month. While it's unfortunate that the Competition Bureau has chosen to challenge the transaction, their lawsuit does not prevent the parties from closing the transaction, which both Plains and Keyera are committing to do so.

在我把電話交給 Blake 之前，我想就我們與 Keyera 的待完成交易簡短說明一下。就時程而言，正如 Keyera 與 Plains 本週稍早分別在各自的新聞稿中所述，我們目標是在本月完成交易。雖然競爭局選擇挑戰該交易令人遺憾，但其訴訟並不妨礙各方完成交易；Plains 與 Keyera 皆承諾將完成交割。

So I realize you have -- you may have some additional questions, but I hope you understand it would be inappropriate for us to comment any further on this matter, so we would appreciate it if you would refrain from asking questions regarding the transaction.

我知道你們可能還有一些額外問題，但希望你們理解，我們不宜就此事再作進一步評論；因此，也請各位避免就該交易提出問題。

Blake, I'm now going to turn it over to you to lead us through Q&A.

Blake，現在我把電話交給你，請你帶領我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Willie. As we enter the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions. This will allow us to address as many questions as possible from participants in our available time this morning.

謝謝你，Willie。進入問答環節時，請每位提問者限制為兩個問題。這將使我們能在今天上午有限的時間內，回覆盡可能多與會者的問題。

With that, Michelle, we're ready for questions.

那麼，Michelle，我們準備好開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank.

（接線員指示）Brandon Bingham，豐業銀行（Scotiabank）。

Just wanted to maybe ask on the new guide, if I look at your sensitivity and the new crude price expectations, it would imply that, at least on price movements alone, the crude contribution should probably be higher than what is currently shown. Could you just walk us through what's baked into the new guide and maybe the embedded outlook in there?

我想就新的指引問一下：如果我看你們的敏感度以及新的原油價格預期，這意味著至少就價格變動本身而言，原油的貢獻應該會高於目前所呈現的水準。你們能否帶我們了解一下新的指引中已納入哪些假設，以及其中隱含的展望？

Sure, Brandon. This is Al. Yeah, our original guidance for the year assumed a $60 and $65 environment for 2026 to a $62. We came into the year highly hedged at roughly those levels. The $85 environment that we're talking about for the future is roughly the strip from June through December when we looked at it.

當然，Brandon。我是 Al。是的，我們原先對今年的指引是假設 2026 年處於每桶 60 美元到 65 美元的環境，並調整到 62 美元。我們在年初以大約那些水準進行了高度避險。我們所談到未來的 85 美元環境，大致是我們觀察時、從 6 月到 12 月的期貨曲線（strip）。

So there would be some benefit based on crude prices on our PLA. But the fact that we had hedged quite a bit before entering the year, that sensitivity we give is just a raw sensitivity. In order to make it more meaningful, we would have had to have disclosed to you the hedge position at the beginning of the year, which we haven't historically done. So what I would say is that the first-quarter performance and the nine months of our guide is very minimally impacted by actual PLA pricing.

因此，原油價格對我們的 PLA 會有一些正面效益。但由於我們在年初之前已做了相當多的避險，我們提供的那個敏感度只是原始敏感度。若要讓它更具意義，我們就必須向你們揭露年初的避險部位，但我們過去並未這麼做。所以我會說，第一季的表現以及我們指引中接下來九個月，實際上受到 PLA 定價的影響非常有限。

And then maybe just wanted to ask about -- in light of some of the commentary in your prepared remarks about a more constructive, longer-term market and just the whole macro environment as it stands today, how are you guys thinking about the potential for the EPIC expansion at this point?

另外也想問一下——鑑於你們在事先準備的發言中提到更具建設性、較長期的市場，以及目前整體總體環境的狀況，你們現在如何看待 EPIC 擴建的可能性？

This is Jeremy. We're excited about the opportunities around our entire long-haul portfolio and are having constructive dialogue with existing customers and new customers looking for secure supply from the United States. So that results in some spot activity, the longer-term, the expectation is to contract at higher rates than maybe before this would happen with potentially new counterparties.

我是 Jeremy。我們對整個長途運輸（long-haul）資產組合周邊的機會感到振奮，並正與既有客戶以及尋求自美國取得安全供應的新客戶進行具建設性的對話。因此，這帶來了一些現貨活動；從較長期來看，我們預期可用較以往更高的費率簽約，且可能會有新的交易對手。

So that would apply to recontracting existing pipeline capacity and expansions as well. So we're looking at all the above and hope to have updates in the coming quarters on how that looks.

這同樣適用於既有管線容量的重新簽約以及擴建。因此我們正全面評估各種選項，並希望在接下來幾個季度就進展情況提供更新。

Gabriel Moreen, Mizuho.

Gabriel Moreen，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

Maybe I'll just ask the Permian macro question. Willie, in terms of your best outlook -- I think, previous years, you talked about 200,000 dish barrels a day, year-over-year growth. Best venture at this point. I realize there's a lot of things in play and things have been changing quickly. But do you think that goes significantly higher from here? 400,000, 500,000 in '27? I'm just curious what your latest thoughts are there?

我想問一個二疊紀（Permian）的總體問題。Willie，就你們最佳的展望而言——我記得前幾年你們談到年增 20 萬桶/日。以目前來看，我知道有很多因素在作用、情況也變化很快。但你認為從這裡開始會顯著更高嗎？例如 2027 年達到 40 萬、50 萬？我只是好奇你最新的看法。

Yeah, Gabe. This is Willie. Jeremy may have some additional comments, but I'll give you my thoughts. The US producers have remained very disciplined as far as capital allocation, and they're looking really at the back end of the curve to see where it goes. WTI is roughly $70, and our view is when you start getting into the $75 and above, increased activity happens.

是的，Gabe。我是 Willie。Jeremy 可能也會補充一些，但我先說我的看法。美國生產商在資本配置方面仍然非常自律，他們主要看期貨曲線後端的走勢。WTI 大約在 70 美元，而我們的看法是，當價格進入 75 美元以上時，活動量就會增加。

There's also some other things that -- more on the short-term operating bias that's limiting production or constraining it a bit. We've got some natural gas -- the Permian has some natural gas takeaway constraints. There are new lines that are being built and being commissioned as early as later this year. So the thought being that alleviates itself.

另外還有一些因素——更偏短期的營運取向——正在限制或稍微約束產量。二疊紀在天然氣外運（takeaway）方面有一些限制。有新的管線正在建設，最快在今年稍晚就會投產並開始啟用。因此我們的想法是，這些限制會逐步緩解。

Our assumption for the Permian this year was flat. And if there is some upside, obviously, we benefit from it. But our view going forward is we're not giving a formal guide, but we would expect growth going forward and probably some momentum of volumes behind that's going to increase production here, maybe with a little bit of a flush later this year or early next year. So I think it really depends on the back of the curve, but the systems are ready to go.

我們對二疊紀今年的假設是持平。如果有上行空間，顯然我們會受益。但我們對未來的看法是——我們不提供正式指引——我們預期未來會有成長，而且背後的量能動能可能會推升產量，或許在今年稍晚或明年初會出現一波小幅的快速增量（flush）。所以我認為這真的取決於期貨曲線後端，但系統已準備就緒。

Thanks, Willie. And then maybe if I can ask on the sustainability of some of the marketing opportunities you're currently seeing. Can you just talk about, I guess, some of the spreads that you're seeing and also on the value of dock space, the extent you're debating internally maybe terming some of those out at higher prices?

謝謝你，Willie。接著我想問一下你們目前看到的一些行銷機會，其可持續性如何。你能否談談你們看到的一些價差（spreads），以及碼頭泊位空間的價值；你們內部是否正在討論把其中一些以更高價格簽成較長期合約（terming some of those out）？

And then also the steepness of the curve and backwardation, how that's playing with your storage? Is that helpful? Is that a hindrance? I'm just curious your thoughts on that.

另外還有曲線的陡峭程度以及逆價差（backwardation），這些對你們的儲存業務有什麼影響？是有幫助嗎？還是會造成阻礙？我只是想聽聽你對此的看法。

Dave, without getting into specific strategies, which I would say time, location, quality spreads, that's volatility, we benefit from all of those because we have the assets, the supplied position and the trading function to capture those opportunities. While it's hard to forecast those when they arrive and that could be the time spreads, could you sell a barrel now and buy it back later by emptying a tank, that type of thing.

Dave，不談具體策略的話，我會說像是時間、地點、品質的價差，還有波動性；我們因為擁有資產、供應部位以及交易功能，能夠從這些機會中受益。雖然很難預測這些機會何時出現，可能是時間價差，例如你能不能現在賣出一桶、之後再買回來，透過把儲槽清空之類的操作。

Could you -- difference in grades between Canada and the United States, difference in grades on Gulf Coast grades, all of those are strategies and things we can take advantage of with our integrated system. And so we're excited about those opportunities.

你也可以——例如加拿大與美國之間的油品等級差異、墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast）不同等級油品的價差；這些都是策略，也是我們能透過整合式系統加以運用的事情。所以我們對這些機會感到很興奮。

What we've put in this, as Willie and Al both stated, we've substantially captured what's in this forecast. It's hard. This is a very volatile time period. We've only been in the 60 to 70 days. So it's hard to forecast that to continue. But if it continues, we would expect to capture more opportunities going forward.

我們在這裡所做的，如同Willie和Al都提到的，我們已經在很大程度上把這份預測中的內容捕捉到了。這很難，因為這是一段波動非常大的期間。我們只經歷了60到70天，所以很難預測這種狀況會持續。但如果持續下去，我們預期未來還能捕捉到更多機會。

And just to add on to what Willie's saying, we do estimate there's close to 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of oil that's behind pipe in the Permian Basin. So that plus production he's talking about is substantial, and a lot of that's in the more constrained areas of the Delaware Basin, which we have a broader footprint. So take New Mexico and other places.

再補充Willie剛才說的，我們估計在二疊紀盆地（Permian Basin）有接近每日20萬到30萬桶的原油「卡在管線後面」（behind pipe）。再加上他提到的產量，規模相當可觀，其中很多是在更受限的德拉瓦盆地（Delaware Basin）區域，而我們的佈局更廣，所以也涵蓋新墨西哥州和其他地方。

So as Willie said, we're not giving a formal guide, but if you look at the plot of -- you talk about spreads, the Waha spread, it's almost flat price in Waha; has been largely negative since last September. That's what's accumulating all of this to go. And so as gas prices recover, productive capacity is already there to add.

所以如Willie所說，我們不提供正式指引，但如果你看那張圖——你提到價差，例如Waha價差，Waha幾乎是平價；自去年9月以來大多為負值。這就是為什麼這些量會累積起來等待外運。因此當天然氣價格回升時，既有的生產能力已經在那裡，可以再把產量加上來。

And as you add more, that puts more pressure on potentially long-haul spreads and the ability to term up contracts at greater rates. So we're seeing more demand from new customers. We're seeing potentially flush production. Those should all benefit to taking short-term opportunities and convert them to longer-term opportunities.

而當你增加更多產量，可能會對長途運輸（long-haul）價差造成更大壓力，也會影響以更高費率簽訂長約的能力。因此我們看到新客戶的需求增加，也看到可能出現一波「沖量式」增產（flush production）。這些都應有利於把短期機會抓住，並把它們轉化為較長期的機會。

And Gabe, this is Willie again. If you look at our numbers, long-haul has increased and the margins on that has also improved. So I think we're moving to a more structurally full pipe situation as we go forward, which should be constructive for us.

Gabe，我是Willie再補充一下。如果你看我們的數字，長途運輸量增加了，而且那部分的利潤率也改善了。所以我認為我們正朝向更結構性「管線滿載」的狀態前進，這對我們應該是正面的。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

Manav Gupta，瑞銀（UBS）。

I just wanted to focus a little bit on the weather impact. I think it is about $49 million quarter over quarter. I'm just trying to understand, it says timing of minimum volume commitments. Is there a possibility some of this can be reversed in 2Q? Some of what you lost in the current quarter comes back into the second quarter? If you could talk a little bit about that.

我想稍微聚焦在天氣影響。我認為季對季大約是4,900萬美元。我想了解的是，這裡寫的是最低量承諾（MVC）的時點。是否有可能其中一部分在第二季（2Q）被回轉？也就是本季損失的一部分在第二季回來？如果你能談談這點就好。

Yes, Manav, those are two different things, but first with regard to weather. Weather Is just production shut in for a period and you can't make that back, but the flush production does come back.

是的，Manav，那是兩件不同的事。不過先談天氣：天氣只是讓生產在一段期間被迫停產（shut in），那部分是補不回來的，但「沖量式」增產（flush production）會回來。

With regard to the timing of MVCs, that's continuous in our process, and if you look at some of the earnings calls from others about their dock performance or other things in that first quarter, freight was really expensive and margins didn't have people moving, so long-haul volumes were down across the industry.

至於MVC的時點，這在我們流程中是持續發生的；而且如果你看其他公司在第一季談到他們碼頭表現或其他因素的法說，當時運費非常昂貴、利潤率也讓大家不願意移動貨，因此整個產業的長途運輸量都下滑。

But that has completely reversed in timing, so you would absolutely expect that to be recovered. It's just a question of when those MVCs accrued versus when they're paid, but all the pipelines are full again and the MVCs are being reversed.

但這個時點已經完全反轉了，所以你絕對可以預期會回補。只是問題在於MVC是何時應計（accrued）與何時支付（paid），但現在所有管線又都滿了，MVC也正在回轉。

Manav, this is Willie. If you're referring to slide 5, I think the point of your question is on that negative $49 million, there's a bunch of one-time events in there that you're absolutely correct that will not occur again as we go forward.

Manav，我是Willie。如果你指的是第5頁投影片，我想你問題的重點在那個負的4,900萬美元裡面，有一堆一次性事件；你說得完全正確，未來不會再發生。

Perfect. And if you could also talk about the very strong results from the NGL segment in the first quarter versus the last quarter, some of the drivers of what helped you deliver a much stronger earnings on that segment quarter over quarter?

很好。另外你能否談談NGL部門第一季相較上一季的表現非常強勁，哪些驅動因素讓你們該部門季對季交出更強的獲利？

Sure, Manav. This is Jeremy again. Higher border flows than expected. You had very full storage in Canada and continued production, which required the volumes to be exported. And those are exported through our Empress assets, so higher border flows leads to more straddle production, and that would all be unhedged and impact --

當然可以，Manav。我是Jeremy再回答一次。跨境流量（border flows）高於預期。加拿大的儲存非常滿且生產持續，因此需要把量出口。而這些是透過我們的Empress資產出口，所以跨境流量越高，就帶來更多跨界加工（straddle）產量，而那部分都是未避險的，並會影響——

So that was more border flow concept, but higher frac spreads as well in the first quarter, toward the end of the first quarter. So I'd say those two. And that has continued into the second quarter, which is the increase in guide for the NGL business through closing.

所以一個是跨境流量的因素，另外第一季也有更高的分餾價差（frac spreads），尤其在第一季末。我會說主要是這兩點。而且這種狀況延續到第二季，這也是我們在完成交割前，上調NGL業務指引的原因。

Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

Michael Blum，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。

My question is really on the guidance, the Crude segment, so I think I'll just ask it all at once. So the increase, just wanted to make sure I understood. It sounds like most of this is optimization, which you've already locked in, and then maybe the rest is PLA. I just want to make sure I understood that.

我的問題主要是關於指引、原油（Crude）部門，所以我想一次問完。關於這次上調，我想確認我理解正確：聽起來大部分是優化（optimization），而且你們已經鎖定了，然後其餘可能是PLA。我只是想確認我理解正確。

And then the second part is, if prices stay elevated for the balance of the year, would there be upside to the guide in the Crude segment, or is that already baked into the numbers? Thanks.

第二部分是，如果今年剩餘時間價格維持在高檔，原油部門的指引是否還有上行空間？還是這些已經反映在數字裡了？謝謝。

Michael, this is Willie. Great question. Our assumptions are that the numbers that are in there really are what we've captured that roll off through the year that we'll actualize on optimization efforts. And you're correct. If we have a stronger macro environment, higher prices, there definitely is upside.

Michael，我是Willie。問得很好。我們的假設是，裡面的數字確實是我們已經捕捉到、並會在今年逐步到期（roll off）且透過優化措施實現的部分。你說得對，如果宏觀環境更強、價格更高，確實會有上行空間。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan Securities.

Jeremy Tonet，摩根大通證券（JPMorgan Securities）。

Just wanted to see what you guys are seeing locally, ear to the ground there, as far as producer activity and whether rigs being picked up by the independents or if larger drillers could as well? And what would be needed to be seen, I guess, across the strip to gain the comfort to do that? And so just wondering how you think production could uptick here or what do you see?

想了解你們在當地第一線看到的情況：就生產商活動而言，是否看到獨立業者在增加鑽機數，或大型鑽探商也可能增加？以及我想，要在期貨曲線（strip）上看到什麼，才會讓大家更有信心去做這件事？所以想請教你們認為產量接下來可能如何回升，或你們看到什麼跡象？

Jeremy, good morning. This is Jeremy. So since it started, you've already seen 15 rigs added back and we would expect some to continue. But as Willie mentioned, there's a bit of a throttle right now. You can't add more natural gas to the system as the flaring is not allowed.

Jeremy，早安。我是Jeremy。自從這波開始以來，你已經看到新增回來15座鑽機，我們也預期還會再增加一些。但如Willie提到的，目前有點像在踩油門限制（throttle）。因為不允許放空燃燒（flaring），你無法把更多天然氣加進系統。

So productive capacities there, rigs being added now would impact 2027. I think there's a bit of confusion by the market in that if you take the products markets and the physical crude market, they're substantially more tighter than the financial markets would indicate, which means the back end of the curve has to come up.

所以生產能力是存在的，但現在新增的鑽機會影響到2027年。我認為市場有點混淆：如果你看成品市場與實體原油市場，它們的緊俏程度遠高於金融市場所顯示的，這意味著曲線後端必須上移。

It's very difficult even if you open the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow to get everything back in order the way it was. It's going to take a while for shipping to start. You have to empty tanks before you can start back up production. Products markets are just empty in some places.

即使你明天就開放荷姆茲海峽，要把一切恢復到原本的秩序也非常困難。航運要重新啟動需要一段時間。你必須先把儲槽清空，才能重新開始生產。產品市場在某些地方就是空的。

So I think there's real dislocation that will take time. I think some of the integrators have stated that for every day it's down, it's three days to get back up. And so it's potential for months to get out of this. Even if they were resolved today. I think that's the part that probably producers are waiting on is more assurity that the back end of the curve that they bring rigs on.

所以我認為確實存在實質性的錯位，需要時間才能修復。我想有些整合商已經表示，每停擺一天，就需要三天才能恢復運轉。因此，這件事可能要花上好幾個月才能走出來，即使今天就解決也是如此。我認為生產商可能在等待的部分，是對曲線後端更有把握，才會把鑽機重新拉上來。

Because at this point, the service companies have stacked equipment. It takes capital to get those back in. It takes commitments to make those back in. So I think producers, to make those commitments, need commitment from prices that they'll be there. And the longer this goes, the more likely that will occur. But I think it's just a dislocation in the back end of the curve right now that's maybe causing some hesitancy, but that's going to prolong the problem.

因為在這個時間點，油服公司已經把設備封存（stacked）。要把那些設備重新投入需要資本，也需要承諾才能把它們重新拉回來。所以我認為生產商要做出那些承諾，需要價格端的承諾——也就是價格會在那裡。這拖得越久，越可能發生。但我認為目前主要是曲線後端的錯位，可能造成一些猶豫，而這會延長問題。

Got it. That's helpful there. And then just wanted to see, I guess, how you think that impacts basis over time here and what it could mean for future egress expansion?

了解。這很有幫助。接著我想看看，你認為這會如何隨時間影響基差（basis），以及這對未來外運（egress）擴張可能意味著什麼？

Thanks, Jeremy. It's constructive for basis. More production is and more demand on the water. So you're seeing a -- specific to the Corpus market and some of the on-the-water efficient docks, you're seeing higher pricing and relative to even the screens.

謝謝你，Jeremy。這對基差是正面的。更多的產量、以及更多的水上需求。因此你會看到——特別是針對Corpus市場以及一些水上效率較高的碼頭——你會看到更高的定價，甚至相對於螢幕報價也是如此。

And so that, on a prolonged basis, says there's new buyers coming to America. There's vessels that used to be pointed at other locations that intend to come back and forth to the United States for a while. So I think you're seeing that on the NGL side. I think you'll see it on the LNG side, and I think you'll see it on the crude side.

因此，若以較長時間來看，這表示有新的買家正在來到美國。有些原本指向其他地點的船舶，打算在一段時間內往返美國。所以我認為你在NGL端會看到這點；我認為在LNG端也會看到；我也認為在原油端會看到。

More buyers and more demand is generally constructive for spreads. And so we would expect to match either our supplier or our customers with that and hopefully offer a service at a higher rate.

更多買家與更多需求通常有利於價差（spreads）。因此我們預期會與我們的供應商或客戶相匹配，並希望能以更高的費率提供服務。

Jeremy, this is Willie. You're aware that on Cactus III, we have expansion capacity there. And as we've always said, we're going to pace that with market demand in commercial contracts.

Jeremy，我是Willie。你知道在Cactus III上，我們那裡有擴充產能。而且如同我們一直說的，我們會依市場需求與商業合約來安排擴充節奏。

The other highlight on that is, as we've gotten to know the project and have assessed it, we have the ability to do that in a phased approach. And also, it's really fairly flexible for us to get additional volumes and it's not a long-term -- it's not a binary big expansion. There's ways to do it in phases, which should match customer demand.

另外一個重點是，隨著我們更了解這個專案並進行評估，我們有能力採取分階段的方式來做。而且對我們而言，要取得額外的量其實相當有彈性，並不是一個長期——也不是那種二選一、一次性的大擴張。有方法可以分期進行，這應該能符合客戶需求。

And generally speaking, in a higher price environment, there are more opportunities because there's basically a pull on the whole system. And so, typically, in that kind of a market, the market opportunities and optimization opportunities become a little more prevalent versus a lower price where less is moving and there's less opportunities. I hope that helps.

一般來說，在較高價格的環境下，機會會更多，因為基本上整個系統都會被拉動。因此通常在那種市場裡，市場機會與最佳化機會會比低價環境更常見；低價時流動量較少、機會也較少。希望這有幫助。

Jackie Koletas, Goldman Sachs.

Jackie Koletas，高盛。

First, just wondering if you could just comment on the progress of your cost reduction initiatives. Are these on track with expectations at this point and is there any potential for upside capture here? When should we expect for Plains to realize more significant efficiencies through the year?

首先想請你評論一下成本削減措施的進展。目前是否符合預期？是否有機會在這裡取得上行空間？我們應該在什麼時候預期Plains在今年內實現更顯著的效率提升？

Yeah, good morning, Jackie. It's Chris Chandler. I'm happy to take that. We are on track to capture the efficiencies, $50 million, by the end of 2026 and an additional $50 million in 2027. We've actually already made a number of changes; some unrelated to the NGL transaction, some in anticipation of the NGL transaction. So we feel confident in the number.

好的，早安，Jackie。我是Chris Chandler。我很樂意回答。我們正按計畫在2026年底前實現5,000萬美元的效率提升，並在2027年再增加5,000萬美元。我們其實已經做了不少變更；有些與NGL交易無關，有些是為了NGL交易做準備。所以我們對這個數字很有信心。

There's always upside. We're always looking for additional opportunities and we will certainly pursue any that we find. We're not prepared at this time to change the $100 million target we have through the end of 2027, but on track there and things are going well.

總是有上行空間。我們一直在尋找額外機會，也一定會追求我們找到的任何機會。目前我們還沒準備好調整截至2027年底的1億美元目標，但我們正按計畫推進，進展也很順利。

And then I'll just one on -- just shifting to capital allocation. With debt reduction as a near-term focus, particularly following the pending NGL sale, when can we expect a shift or what would allow a shift from debt paydown to a larger focus on potential buybacks or preferred paydowns?

接著我再問一題——轉到資本配置。以降債作為短期重點，特別是在即將完成的NGL出售之後，我們何時可以預期會轉向？或是什麼因素會促成從償還債務轉向更著重於潛在回購或償還優先股？

This is Al. I'll take a shot at it. Yeah, because clearly, with the proceeds from NGL, we anticipate taking that and paying down roughly a little over $3 billion of debt, which would be the term loan, the outstanding CP we have, and a $750 million note that matures later this year.

我是Al。我來嘗試回答。是的，因為很明顯，隨著NGL的出售款項，我們預期會用來償還大約略高於30億美元的債務，包括定期貸款、我們目前未償還的商業本票（CP），以及一筆今年稍晚到期的7.5億美元票據。

Post that, we expect to be right at the midpoint of our leverage. We expect up 3.5%. We expect that to migrate down, which will then come back to where we've been for the last number of years prior to the EPIC acquisition, leverage towards the low end of our range.

在那之後，我們預期槓桿率會正好落在我們目標區間的中點。我們預期約3.5%。我們預期它會逐步下降，之後會回到我們在收購EPIC之前過去多年所處的水準，也就是槓桿率朝向我們區間的低端。

Our view would be capital allocation, first and foremost, focused on maintaining distribution growth, funding investments, whether they're organic or M&A related as well as looking at taking out, perhaps, should leverage remain at or below the bottom end of the range and opportunistic share repurchases. So long-winded way of saying that once we get through the NGL sale and deployment of the proceeds, back to where we've been operating for the last several years.

我們的看法是，資本配置首先會聚焦於維持配息成長、資助投資（不論是有機成長或併購相關），同時也會考慮在槓桿率維持在區間底部或低於區間底部時，可能進行的（優先股）退出，以及機會性股票回購。簡而言之，一旦我們完成NGL出售並部署款項，就會回到過去幾年我們一貫的運作方式。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Willie Chiang, President, CEO, and Chairman, for closing remarks.

謝謝。我這邊顯示目前沒有進一步提問。我想把電話交回給總裁、執行長兼董事長Willie Chiang，做結語。

Michelle, thanks. We appreciate everyone's support and attention, and we look forward to seeing you on the roads. Stay safe. Thank you very much.

Michelle，謝謝。我們感謝大家的支持與關注，也期待在路演上與各位見面。請注意安全。非常感謝。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。各位，祝您有美好的一天。