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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to GAP's conference call. (Operator Instructions)
早上好,歡迎參加 GAP 電話會議。 (操作員說明)
It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to GAP's Investor Relations team. Please go ahead.
現在我很高興將會議交給 GAP 投資者關係團隊。請繼續。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Thank you, and welcome to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Presenting for the company today, we welcome Mr. Raul Revuelta, GAP's Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Saul Villarreal, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝,歡迎參加 Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico 的 2023 年第三季電話會議。今天,我們迎來了 GAP 執行長 Raul Revuelta 先生;以及財務長 Saul Villarreal 先生。
Please be advised that forward-looking statements may be made during this conference call. These do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, or financial results. As such, statements made are based on several assumptions and factors that could change. This could cause actual results to materially differ from current expectations. For a complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the quarterly report.
請注意,本次電話會議期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述。這些並未考慮未來的經濟環境、產業狀況、公司業績或財務表現。因此,所做的陳述是基於一些可能會改變的假設和因素。這可能會導致實際結果與當前預期有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的完整說明,請參閱季度報告。
At this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Revuelta for his opening remark. Please begin, sir.
現在,我想將電話轉給 Revuelta 先生,請他致開幕詞。請開始吧,先生。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Thank you, Maria, and thank you to everyone who took the time to join us today. Let's begin by addressing the recent events. We know that the last week has been tough on the market, given the decision made by the Mexican government. Today, I would like to clarify these changes during this presentation and answer all the questions regarding this news.
謝謝你,瑪麗亞,也謝謝今天抽出時間加入我們的所有人。讓我們先討論最近發生的事件。我們知道,鑑於墨西哥政府的決定,上週市場情況嚴峻。今天,我想在這次演講中澄清這些變化,並回答有關此新聞的所有問題。
First, I will start with the financial results and then I will go deeper into the regulation. Then recap GAP's operational and financial performance for the third quarter of 2022, and then the recent events prior to taking questions.
首先,我將從財務表現開始,然後我將更深入地討論監管。然後回顧 GAP 2022 年第三季的營運和財務業績,然後在回答問題之前回顧最近發生的事件。
For the period, GAP exported 16.2 million passengers throughout the 14 airports, representing a 10.8% increase. Together with the solid results we experienced during the first half of this year, these results keep us on track to reach our annual growth guidance.
期內,GAP 在 14 個機場輸出旅客 1,620 萬人次,成長 10.8%。加上我們今年上半年取得的紮實業績,這些結果使我們有望實現年度成長指引。
Aeronautical revenues increased by 8.2%. In GAP's Mexican airport, there was not increase in the produce price index excluding petroleum, which led to 0 inflation, increasing the maximum tariff approved. In addition, the nearly 16% appreciation of Mexican peso over the U.S. dollar negatively impact the consolidation of the 2 Jamaican airports during the third quarter '23, therefore affecting our overall increase in revenue. As a result, there was a decline in the consolidated aeronautical revenue per passenger.
航空收入成長8.2%。在GAP的墨西哥機場,除石油外的農產品物價指數並沒有上漲,導致通膨為零,提高了核准的最高關稅。此外,墨西哥比索相對美元升值近 16%,對 23 年第三季牙買加兩個機場的整合產生了負面影響,從而影響了我們整體收入的成長。因此,每位乘客的綜合航空收入有所下降。
Non-aeronautical revenue grew by 14%. Most of the increase was attributed to the opening of the new spaces in the airport of Guadalajara, Montego Bay and Los Cabos. Passengers traffic growth and the renegotiation of tenant contracts also contributed to this increase. It is remarkable that despite the nearly 16% peso appreciation during the quarter, which affected 39% of commercial revenue, non-aeronautical revenue per passengers increased 3%.
非航空收入成長14%。成長的大部分歸因於瓜達拉哈拉、蒙特哥灣和洛斯卡沃斯機場新機場的開放。客運量成長和租戶合約的重新談判也促成了這一增長。值得注意的是,儘管本季比索升值近 16%,影響了 39% 的商業收入,但每位乘客的非航空收入卻成長了 3%。
On that note, I want to mention that just this past week at the Guadalajara airport we opened a terrace, an upscale rooftop space featuring well-known restaurants and bars. Also at this airport, the mixed-use building is nearly complete and is expected to be fully operational during the first quarter of 2024.
在這一點上,我想提一下,就在上週,我們在瓜達拉哈拉機場開設了一個露台,這是一個高檔屋頂空間,設有知名餐廳和酒吧。同樣在該機場,多功能建築已接近完工,預計將於 2024 年第一季全面投入營運。
EBITDA reaches MXN 4.3 billion for the quarter, rising 4.5% with an EBITDA margin of 67.5%. This increase was not aligned with the passenger's traffic growth because of the almost new inflation in the maximum tariff and the appreciation of the peso, which impacted total revenues growth figures.
本季 EBITDA 達 43 億墨西哥比索,成長 4.5%,EBITDA 利潤率為 67.5%。這一成長與客運量成長並不相符,因為最高關稅幾乎出現了新的通貨膨脹,而且比索升值,影響了總收入成長數據。
In addition, cost increase was related to concession taxes, mainly in Jamaica, where we saw a passengers traffic recovery, specifically in Montego Bay. If you recall, the concession fee in Montego Bay is variable based on the excess earnings about the project scenario that was established at the beginning of the concession.
此外,成本增加與特許權稅有關,主要是在牙買加,我們看到客流量有所恢復,特別是在蒙特哥灣。如果你還記得的話,蒙特哥灣的特許權費是根據特許權開始時建立的專案方案的超額收入而變化的。
We have been below this project scenario with the pandemic, hence we haven't reflected additional concession fee in the past years. However, we are now seeing a recovery in Montego Bay and thus higher concession fees. Furthermore, inflation has caused higher cost of services and has the hiring of additional personnel and the changes in labor law. Additionally, the minimum wage increase has affected not only the figures for salaries but also personal contracts such as janitorial, security and maintenance.
由於大流行,我們一直低於這個項目情景,因此我們在過去幾年沒有反映額外的特許權費。然而,我們現在看到蒙特哥灣正在復蘇,因此特許權費也更高。此外,通貨膨脹導致服務成本上升、僱用更多人員以及勞動法發生變化。此外,最低工資的上漲不僅影響了薪資數字,還影響了清潔、保全和維護等個人合約。
Moving now to the CapEx, this continues to be carried out in accordance with the master development program, along with commercial investment. During the quarter, we deployed MXN 2 billion, which were mainly allocated to the Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta airports. We have also continued with the acquisition process for the land reserved in the Guadalajara airport.
現在轉向資本支出,這將繼續根據整體開發計劃以及商業投資進行。本季度,我們部署了 20 億墨西哥比索,主要分配給瓜達拉哈拉和巴亞爾塔港機場。我們也持續進行瓜達拉哈拉機場預留土地的收購過程。
In recent events, this past September, Pratt & Whitney, a world leader in aircraft engines, announced preventive accelerated inspections of the Airbus 320 and Airbus 321neo's engines. It is expected around 700 engines worldwide will undergo inspections from 2023 to 2026. These inspections are mandated by the FFA after a specific number of cycles depending on the engine time. Currently, the FAA has only issued the first service instruction for the initial batch of engines. It is estimated that this will take from 250 to 300 days for P&W to remove and expect the engines to be returned to the operations.
在最近發生的事件中,去年 9 月,全球飛機引擎領導者普惠公司宣布對空中巴士 320 和空中巴士 321neo 引擎進行預防性加速檢查。預計 2023 年至 2026 年間,全球將有約 700 台引擎接受檢查。這些檢查由 FFA 根據引擎時間在特定循環次數後強制執行。目前,美國聯邦航空局僅針對第一批引擎發布了第一份維修指令。據估計,P&W 需要 250 至 300 天的時間才能拆除並預計引擎將重新投入運作。
(inaudible) represents 32% of our total passenger traffic announced in its conference call that from the current 126 aircraft fleet, they have 22 Airbus 321neo and 55 320neos that may be temporarily affected. The visibility is limited, but GAP's estimate that most of the impacts will be felt in 2024 and 2025. Visitation is still evolving. We will keep you updated once more information is about.
(聽不清楚)占我們在電話會議中宣布的總客運量的 32%,在目前 126 架飛機機隊中,有 22 架空中巴士 321neo 和 55 320neo 可能暫時受到影響。能見度有限,但 GAP 估計大部分影響將在 2024 年和 2025 年感受到。訪問量仍在不斷變化。一旦有更多信息,我們將及時通知您。
On the other hand, on October 19, the Mexican House of Representatives present a bill regarding the Mexican federal duties laws changing the concessions fee from 5% to 9%. This bill was passed by the Mexican Senate yesterday, going into effect on January 1, 2024. The amount paid in excess over the 5% of the aeronautical revenue during 2024 will be included in reference value for 2025.
另一方面,10月19日,墨西哥眾議院提出一項關於墨西哥聯邦關稅法的法案,將特許權費從5%改為9%。該法案昨天獲得墨西哥參議院通過,自2024年1月1日起生效。2024年期間支付的超過航空收入5%的金額將計入2025年的參考值。
For the 2025, 2029 MDP period, the new concession tax over aeronautical revenues will be included in our operational costs and will be recovered through the joint maximum tariff. On October 4, we will receive a notification from the Civil Aviation Agency, modifying the rules of tariff regulations that have been in place since 1999.
在2025年和2029年MDP期間,針對航空收入的新優惠稅將計入我們的營運成本,並透過聯合最高關稅予以回收。 10月4日,我們將收到民航局的通知,並對1999年以來實施的運價法規進行修改。
After 2 weeks of analysis, on October 19 the authority announced the amended rules, clarifying the methodology for determining the joint maximum tariff and defining the scope regarding supervision of compliance by the authorities. The full text of the new rules was disclosed in our press release on that same day and can be found on our website under Press Releases.
經過兩週的分析,10月19日主管機關公佈了修訂後的規定,明確了聯合最高關稅的確定方法,並明確了主管部門合規監督的範圍。新規則的全文已在我們當天的新聞稿中披露,並且可以在我們網站的新聞稿下找到。
I just want to briefly review some of the main changes in the rules for tariff regulation. First of all, changes in the discount rate going from cost of capital to weighted average cost of capital. We believe that this reflects capital balance sheet position of the company as well as the leverage strategy followed in recent years.
我只想簡單回顧一下關稅監管規則的一些主要變化。首先,折現率從資本成本變成加權平均資本成本。我們認為,這反映了公司的資本資產負債表狀況以及近年來所遵循的槓桿策略。
Secondly, a clawback over 3% excess in workload units for the 12 airports project in the [King Kenya]. The trigger for the calculation will be when the aggregate workload units of the period exceed 3% of the real workload units projection established in the MDP. In that case, we will have to calculate the excess revenue generated offset by the concession fee paid for those revenues. The result will be subtracted from the reference value of the next King Kenya . It is important to mention that this will be reviewed for the workloads units of the 2025 to 2029 period, hence will be applicable in the 2030 reference balance.
其次,為[肯亞國王]的12個機場計畫收回超過3%的超額工作量單位。當該期間的總工作負載單位超過 MDP 中建立的實際工作負載單位預測的 3% 時,將觸發計算。在這種情況下,我們將必須計算產生的超額收入,並用為這些收入支付的特許權費用來抵銷。其結果將從下一屆肯亞國王的參考值中減去。值得一提的是,這將針對 2025 年至 2029 年期間的工作量單位進行審查,因此將適用於 2030 年參考餘額。
Third, the change in the terminal value. In the formal rules, we project the net cash flow from the year '16 to the end of the concession period. Now the terminal value will begin in the year 6 until the end of the concession period. It is important to note that GAP's joined maximum tariffs for 2023 and 2024 as well as the MDP will remain the same.
第三,終值的變化。在正式規則中,我們預測了從 16 年到特許經營期結束的淨現金流量。現在,最終價值將從第 6 年開始直至特許期結束。值得注意的是,GAP 2023 年和 2024 年的聯合最高關稅以及 MDP 將保持不變。
Before we move to Q&A, I would like to confirm our guidance figure for 2023 published in the second quarter of 2023. I just want to underscore our confidence in the underlying fundamental of our business and our commitment to our shareholders.
在我們進行問答之前,我想確認我們在 2023 年第二季發布的 2023 年指導數字。我只是想強調我們對我們業務基本面的信心以及我們對股東的承諾。
Thank you for your attention. I will ask the operator to open the floor for your questions.
感謝您的關注。我將請接線生開始回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Guilherme Mendes with JPMorgan.
(操作員說明)我們將接受摩根大通的 Guilherme Mendes 提出的第一個問題。
Guilherme G. Mendes - Research Analyst
Guilherme G. Mendes - Research Analyst
I have 2 questions. The first one is related to the GTF engine situation. I know there's still a lot of moving parts and uncertainty, but what is your best estimate for the potential impacts for traffic in 2024 and 2025? And the second question is regarding the MDP changes, so the changes on the regulatory front. If you see any room for any kind of legal measures against the changes. And just a clarification in terms of the MDP negotiation, if the base case is due to have it completed before the potential election or more towards the end of next year.
我有 2 個問題。第一個與GTF引擎的情況有關。我知道仍然存在許多變化和不確定性,但您對 2024 年和 2025 年交通潛在影響的最佳估計是多少?第二個問題是關於 MDP 的變化,即監管方面的變化。如果您認為有任何空間採取任何形式的法律措施來反對這些變化。只是就 MDP 談判進行澄清,基本情況是否應在潛在選舉之前完成,或在明年年底之前完成。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
This is Raul. I mean, talking about the engines, I would say it is difficult to have a number right now because it's something that is really evolving. I will say that in a couple of months, we're going to have more clarity about what could come. But at the moment, and our really first view, we think that it could have an impact from minus 5% to minus 7% on the total passengers of GAP. For sure, this could be much better if the number of planes in some way come to fly yearly or don't have any kind of the -- or they don't have the number of the batch of engines on that plane.
這是勞爾。我的意思是,談到引擎,我想說現在很難有一個數字,因為它確實在不斷發展。我想說的是,幾個月後,我們將更清楚地了解可能發生的事情。但目前,也是我們真正的第一個觀點,我們認為這可能會對 GAP 的乘客總數產生負 5% 到負 7% 的影響。當然,如果每年有多少架飛機以某種方式飛行,或者沒有任何類型的飛機,或者他們沒有那架飛機上批次引擎的數量,情況可能會好得多。
But today, it's really difficult to say, so we want some, I would say, big numbers about some of our routes, taking in account the low factor, for instance, in the route that there are some additional space, we think that the impact will be lower. But also, we have to take in account that in January on the Mexico City airport, there will be a cutoff capacity announced -- already announced by the federal government that could cause also a reorder on some of the operations that could have as a result that some planes will -- or some rotation of planes will move from Mexico City Airport to other airports in the country. Saying all that, our view today is going to be an impact that could be around 5% to 7%, but again we're saying that there is a lot of information that today is not completely clear.
但今天,這真的很難說,所以我們想要一些,我想說,關於我們的一些路線的大數字,考慮到低因素,例如,在路線中有一些額外的空間,我們認為影響會更低。而且,我們還必須考慮到,一月份墨西哥城機場將宣布切斷運力——聯邦政府已經宣布了這一消息,這可能會導致一些運營的重新排序,這可能會導致一些飛機將從墨西哥城機場飛往該國其他機場。話雖如此,我們今天的觀點可能會產生大約 5% 到 7% 的影響,但我們再次表示,今天有很多資訊並不完全清楚。
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Guilherme, this is Saul. So in terms of the MDP changes, we don't see any potential legal claim. In the coming months, we will see what is the effects. Regarding the MDP negotiation, I think it's more certainty, more clarity about some of the calculations in terms of the discount rate. I think it's good for the market to have this certainty.
吉列爾梅,這是索爾。因此,就 MDP 變更而言,我們沒有看到任何潛在的法律索賠。在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將看到效果如何。關於MDP談判,我認為在貼現率方面的一些計算更加確定、更加清晰。我認為擁有這種確定性對市場來說是件好事。
And it's very early to know what could be the effect. We know that the election will be in the same year. We did not expect any change in terms of the review with the government. We believe that this is the basis for the MDP review for 2025-'29. By the end of September, we will have the change of the government. And probably in the last quarter 2024, we will have or we should have the new MDP and the new tariffs.
現在知道可能產生什麼影響還為時過早。我們知道選舉將在同年舉行。我們預計政府的審查不會有任何變化。我們認為這是 2025-'29 年 MDP 審查的基礎。到9月底,我們將迎來政府更迭。可能在 2024 年最後一個季度,我們將擁有或應該擁有新的 MDP 和新關稅。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Alberto Valerio with UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的阿爾貝托·瓦萊裡奧。
Alberto Valerio - Associate Director & LatAm Transportation Equity Research Associate
Alberto Valerio - Associate Director & LatAm Transportation Equity Research Associate
My question is regarding the discount rate. When move to cost of equity to watch, we usually see a decrease. And if you take the methodology that the government just reported to us, we would see this change. However, for the old regulatory framework, we used to have Mexican 10-year bonds plus a spread that we estimate close to 4%. And with this new regulatory framework, even working below the cost of equity, this would be higher than the previous one. My question is, this doesn't make sense with the announcement of tariffs cuts. Where could I be wrong here? What I could be missing on these new discount rates for the new regulatory framework?
我的問題是關於折扣率。當轉向股本成本觀察時,我們通常會看到下降。如果你採用政府剛剛向我們報告的方法,我們會看到這種變化。然而,對於舊的監管框架,我們曾經擁有墨西哥 10 年期債券,加上我們估計接近 4% 的利差。有了這個新的監管框架,即使低於股權成本,這也將高於先前的監管框架。我的問題是,這對於宣布削減關稅來說沒有意義。我哪裡可能錯了?對於新監管框架的這些新折現率,我可能會遺漏什麼?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Thank you, Alberto. I will say that going from which could be the impact right now for us is difficult because we are more than a year before we really know which is going to be the specific rates that we are going to have to take into account, inflation and all the different variables that today are in some way moving. One of the things that you said that is interesting also is that in the cost of capital in the new formula, the government add all the different maturities of bonds from 5 years to 30 years. I think that is good for the calculation of the cost of capital because at the end of the day, in the time, it will reflect in some way the long-term cost of capital for a company in Mexico.
謝謝你,阿爾貝托。我想說的是,從現在對我們可能產生的影響來看是很困難的,因為我們需要一年多的時間才能真正知道我們必須考慮的具體利率、通貨膨脹和所有因素。今天在某種程度上正在發生變化的不同變數。你所說的有趣的事情之一是,在新公式的資本成本中,政府添加了從 5 年到 30 年的所有不同期限的債券。我認為這有利於資本成本的計算,因為最終,到了一定時間,它將以某種方式反映墨西哥公司的長期資本成本。
So I think that one of the things that are interesting and somewhere have been clarified by the system is related to the cost of capital and the different maturities that we'll use -- that will take in account all the different matures for the UMS. But it's, I think, a good news for the company and for the regulation. It's difficult to say which is going to be the impact because there are a lot of variables happening right now. And we are more than one year ago from our actual review of the calculation and the maximum tariffs.
所以我認為,有趣的事情之一併且系統已經在某個地方澄清了這一點,這與資本成本和我們將使用的不同期限有關——這將考慮到 UMS 的所有不同期限。但我認為,這對公司和監管來說都是個好消息。很難說哪一個會產生影響,因為現在發生了很多變數。而且我們是從一年多前我們實際審查的計算和最高關稅的。
Alberto Valerio - Associate Director & LatAm Transportation Equity Research Associate
Alberto Valerio - Associate Director & LatAm Transportation Equity Research Associate
And if I may just a follow-up in terms of CapEx. Before we are talking about to keep the same CapEx per passenger close to MXN 40 billion for the next MDP. Should we keep in mind the same reference value or should increase or decrease the new -- you were thinking 6 months ago?
我可以只是在資本支出方面進行跟進嗎?當我們討論下一個 MDP 時,每位乘客的資本支出應保持在 400 億墨西哥比索左右。我們應該記住相同的參考值還是應該增加或減少新的——您在 6 個月前就想到過?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
I would say that one of the parts that would be -- one of the moving parts that we are seeing right now. Today, we don't know how big going to be the impact, or how long going to take the impact of the Airbus320 and 321 engines. If you go deeper into the MDP is saying, not only in 2025 or even 2026. So today, it's really difficult to say which additional capacity we will bring to the table. For sure, right now we are working right now on all our quality services and capacity reviews to understand which is going to be the biggest amount or the amount that we will have on CapEx for the coming years.
我想說的是,其中一個部分是我們現在看到的移動部分之一。今天,我們不知道影響有多大,也不知道空中巴士 320 和 321 引擎的影響會持續多久。如果你更深入地了解 MDP 的話,不僅是在 2025 年甚至 2026 年。所以今天,很難說我們將帶來哪些額外的產能。當然,現在我們正在對所有品質服務和容量進行審查,以了解未來幾年我們將擁有的最大金額或資本支出金額。
One of the things that is important to have in mind that some of the CapEx that will be reflected in the new master plan has already paid. And with that, I was saying about mainly the Guadalajara land reserve that already passed through the balance sheet of that, but it will be reflected on the maximum tariff in the next period. So in general terms, I will say that the CapEx per passenger could be closer of what we have in the past, but it's important to know that the effect of the Guadalajara land reserve has already paid. So it will not have future effects on the cash flows of the company, even if it will be reflected on the new master plan as a part of our program.
需要記住的重要事情之一是,新總體規劃中反映的一些資本支出已經支付。我說的主要是瓜達拉哈拉的土地儲備,它已經通過了資產負債表,但它將反映在下一時期的最高關稅上。因此,總的來說,我會說每位乘客的資本支出可能更接近我們過去的水平,但重要的是要知道瓜達拉哈拉土地儲備的影響已經得到了回報。因此,即使它將作為我們計劃的一部分反映在新的總體規劃中,也不會對公司的現金流量產生未來影響。
Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Pablo Monsivais with Barclays.
我們將接受巴克萊銀行的巴勃羅·蒙西瓦 (Pablo Monsivais) 提出的下一個問題。
Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst
Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst
It's kind of a follow-up to the previous question. The fact that we're moving from -- to a WACC from a cost of equity, but your debt ratio is very low. It is correct to think that you are basically back again to a cost of equity calculation because your debt ratio is quite low? That's number one. Number two, in general, how do you feel about this agreement? Do you feel comfortable with having these rules or is there anything that probably you feel is not right? And I don't know, perhaps a related question on that. Do you feel like the government liberty to estimate the growth variable on the terminal value calculation is something that you probably dislike, or how do you feel in general about this?
這是上一個問題的後續。事實上,我們正在從股本成本轉向 WACC,但你的債務比率非常低。由於您的負債比率相當低,您是否基本上又回到了股本成本計算,這是正確的嗎?這是第一名。第二,總的來說,您對這項協議有何看法?您對這些規則感到滿意嗎?或者您認為有什麼不對勁嗎?我不知道,也許有一個相關的問題。您是否認為您可能不喜歡政府在最終價值計算中估計成長變數的自由,或者您對此有何總體感受?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Let me begin with the G factor for the terminal value. You all remember that the G factor has ceased in all the life of our concessions. But on the past, it's just to be the average of the last 5 years before the counting of the beginning of the terminal value on the formula. So on the past, it was really clear and the authority applied just directly from that average of traffic growth. On this new version, the yield still be -- I would say, the same in terms of the terminal value. It will still be a calculus from average growth from the projections of traffic, still the same way. And for sure, it has a bigger impact than in the past because it will take from the year 6 until the end of the concession.
讓我從終值的 G 因子開始。你們都記得,G 因素在我們的特許權有效期內已經停止。但過去,公式中只是計算期初值之前的最近5年的平均值。因此,在過去,情況非常明確,當局直接根據流量成長的平均值進行應用。在這個新版本中,我想說,就最終價值而言,收益率仍然是相同的。它仍然是根據流量預測的平均成長進行計算,仍然是相同的方式。可以肯定的是,它的影響比過去更大,因為它需要從第 6 年到特許權結束。
But at least thinking on what the past -- the way that the past -- in the past what the G calculated and in some way accepted by the government, the federal government, I will not foresee any changes in the way that could or not could affect. At the end of the day, Pablo, the new rules are in some way clear about the way of the calculus of the G. The only part that we need to have a much better understand is the normalization of the CapEx for the long term on the terminal value. I will say that that is the tricky part that we'll need to understand better how the authority will apply that. But again, we have enough time to understand on a couple of months and to begin any -- before we have the new negotiation of the maximum tariff.
但至少考慮一下過去的情況——過去的方式——過去G所計算的以及以某種方式被政府、聯邦政府所接受的,我不會預見到任何可能或不可能發生的變化可能會影響。巴勃羅,歸根結底,新規則在某種程度上明確了 G 的計算方式。我們唯一需要更好理解的部分是長期資本支出的正常化終值。我想說,這是棘手的部分,我們需要更好地了解當局將如何應用它。但同樣,在我們就最高關稅進行新的談判之前,我們有足夠的時間來了解幾個月並開始任何工作。
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Yes, in terms of -- Pablo, this is Saul. In terms of the cost of equity or WACC, we believe that this change reflects the composition of our balance sheet. So obviously, the cost of equity and WACC has a main difference, But it's complicated to say now that if we could return to the cost of equity calculation. The basis are pretty clear and what we have to do as management is to analyze the best composition, the best balance of our debt, in general terms our capital structure to see what is the best approach for the next tariff review, and obviously to try to obtain the fair return for our investors in terms of our MDP and obviously in terms of the new regular basis.
是的,就巴勃羅而言,這是索爾。就股本成本或 WACC 而言,我們認為這項變更反映了我們資產負債表的組成。很明顯,股權成本和WACC有一個主要區別,但現在說起來很複雜,如果我們能回到股權成本計算的話。基礎非常明確,作為管理層,我們要做的就是分析我們債務的最佳構成、最佳平衡,一般來說我們的資本結構,看看下一次關稅審查的最佳方法是什麼,顯然要嘗試為我們的投資者在我們的MDP 方面以及顯然在新的定期基準方面獲得公平的回報。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的布魯諾·阿莫林。
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
So I have 2 questions, the first one on the new regulatory framework for the calculation of the tariffs as of the MDP. I'd like to ask you some help to understand the big picture because, you correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that those changes, they point to lower tariffs. The concession fee will increase. The concession is not being extended. And CapEx, at the end of the day, is a function of traffic, so it's not being changed. So if you have lower tariffs, higher concession fee and other variables are not changing, is it fair to say the return on the regulated side of the business is coming down or is there any offset that I'm not aware of?
我有兩個問題,第一個問題是關於 MDP 關稅計算的新監管框架。我想請您提供一些幫助來了解大局,因為如果我錯了,請糾正我,但似乎這些變化意味著關稅降低。特許經營費將增加。該優惠不會延長。歸根結底,資本支出是流量的函數,因此不會改變。因此,如果關稅較低、特許權費較高且其他變數沒有變化,那麼可以說受監管業務的回報正在下降嗎?或者是否有任何我不知道的抵消?
And the second question is on the parallel discussion for the short-term reduction in the TUA, which has been in the press over the past few days. What's the basis for that, for that revision in TUA outside of the MDP? What could be the offset to keep the contract balanced? Those are my 2 questions.
第二個問題是關於短期減少TUA的平行討論,這幾天媒體一直在討論這個問題。 MDP 以外的 TUA 修訂的基礎是什麼?保持合約平衡的抵銷措施是什麼?這是我的兩個問題。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Thank you, Bruno. Today, it's difficult to say what's going to be the final result of the calculus because at the end of the day, we have moving parts on the demand, moving part on the rates. So it's -- I would say that it's difficult today to say what's going to be the direct impact on the new calculation. In general terms, I will say that the biggest change in all these regulatory framework is the weight of the calculation of the -- from cost of capital to work. So over there, depending in the structure of the cost of debt of the company for the future, it will be or not offset the possible impacts on the calculus of the WACC.
謝謝你,布魯諾。今天,很難說演算的最終結果是什麼,因為最終我們會根據需求改變部分,並根據利率改變部分。所以我想說,今天很難說對新計算的直接影響是什麼。總的來說,我想說,所有這些監管框架中最大的變化是計算的權重——從資本成本到工作成本。因此,根據公司未來債務成本的結構,它是否會抵消對 WACC 計算可能產生的影響。
But again, it's really difficult to today say a number or say by itself that it's going to be a decrease on tariff. We need to run the numbers. We need to understand the new characteristics of the market to understand specifically what is going to be the size of our CapEx. And after that, we could have a more correct number that it will happen in the coming months. It is important to say in terms of the change on the concession fee. It is important to notice that the regulation, the new regulation is still having the 2 for pass-through the tariff, at least the cost of the concession fee that is implied by the aeronautical revenue. So I will say that the effect of the concession fee on the aeronautical revenues in the next modification of the maximum tariff would be neutral, just as part of the concession fee.
但同樣,今天很難說出一個數字或單獨說關稅將會降低。我們需要計算一下數字。我們需要了解市場的新特徵,以具體了解我們的資本支出規模。之後,我們可以得到一個更準確的數字,表明未來幾個月將會發生這種情況。重要的是要說特許費的變化。需要注意的是,規定,新規定仍有2個轉嫁關稅,至少是航空收入隱含的特許經營費成本。因此,我想說,在下次最高運費修改中,特許權費對航空收入的影響將是中性的,就像特許權費的一部分一樣。
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Yes. Bruno, this is Saul. In terms of the short-term reduction of that has been in the press, we'd like to let you know that it is something that we do every year and we provide to the market this kind of benefit. It's not an exception. It is -- probably right now, there's additional notion that, but it's something that we do almost every year, providing this kind of incentives to the market.
是的。布魯諾,這是索爾。關於媒體報導的短期減少,我們想讓您知道,這是我們每年都會做的事情,我們向市場提供這種好處。這也不例外。可能現在還有額外的想法,但我們幾乎每年都會這樣做,為市場提供這種誘因。
And the discounts in TUA or discount in aeronautical services, it's happening all the time. Obviously, right now, it's -- it was part of the review with the authorities. But it's something that we do regularly. So it is true, it is a discount, but it's something that we just to do every year. So it's not an exception, but just now because on this.
TUA 折扣或航空服務折扣一直在發生。顯然,現在這是當局審查的一部分。但這是我們經常做的事情。所以這是真的,這是折扣,但這是我們每年都會做的事情。所以這不是例外,但只是現在因為這樣。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
And I mean, to be clear about the TUA reduction. One of the things that we announced in the coming days is that we will have discount of TUA of 10% in 9 of our airports during November and December, then we will review inflation in all our tariff, not only TUA, and we will keep with the new tariff a discount of the 10% in 9 of our airports. In general terms, that is a promotion that we will put in place for the coming year from 2024.
我的意思是,要先明確 TUA 的減少。我們在未來幾天宣布的一件事是,我們將在11 月和12 月期間在我們的9 個機場提供10% 的TUA 折扣,然後我們將審查所有關稅的通貨膨脹,而不僅僅是TUA,我們將保持新關稅後,我們的 9 個機場可享 10% 的折扣。總的來說,這是我們將從 2024 年開始實施的促銷活動。
And it is important, again, really important to say that these promotions or discounts on TUA is not affecting or changing the rules on the maximum tariff because the maximum tariff is still in place, is still exactly the same that were negotiated and announced by the government 4 years ago.
再次強調,TUA 的這些促銷或折扣不會影響或改變最高關稅的規則,因為最高關稅仍然有效,仍然與 TUA 談判和宣布的完全相同。政府4年前。
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
So just to make sure that we got it. So you're saying it doesn't change the maximum tariff, but you're going to charge a lower TUA by 10% in some airports. So is it fair to say in those specific airports, the tariff or the revenues per passenger will be roughly 10% below the maximum tariffs going forward?
所以只是為了確保我們得到它。所以你說這不會改變最高關稅,但你會在某些機場收取較低 10% 的 TUA。那麼,可以公平地說,在這些特定機場,關稅或每位乘客的收入將比未來最高關稅低約 10% 嗎?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Not necessarily because, as you know, the maximum tariff is a basket of services. In that service, we have other services. And of course, for example, there are 2 variables that really changed the way that we make the figures about the maximum tariff that is the inflation and the exchange rates. So what we are saying on this model for the coming year and as some of the things that we will announce in coming days is that we will have a reduction of the 10% of TUA in 9 of our airports. This 10% is in -- I would say, it will be after the inflation review, and it's just in that specific tariff. It's not directly implied a reduction on the 10% of the total aeronautical revenues.
不一定,因為如您所知,最高關稅是一籃子服務。在該服務中,我們還有其他服務。當然,例如,有兩個變數真正改變了我們計算最高關稅資料的方式,即通貨膨脹和匯率。因此,我們對來年的這一模式表示,我們將在未來幾天宣布的一些事情是,我們將在 9 個機場減少 10% 的 TUA。我想說,這 10% 是在通貨膨脹審查之後,而且只是在特定關稅中。這並不直接意味著航空總收入減少 10%。
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Yes. And just to add something on that is that the effect of inflation that was almost new during the year has for the maximum tariff has more a higher effect than the discount in TUA. And also the appreciation of the peso is affecting the revenue, and represents obviously an impact in the revenues, but it doesn't affect directly to the fulfilling of our maximum tariff.
是的。需要補充的是,今年幾乎新出現的通貨膨脹對最高關稅的影響比 TUA 折扣的影響更大。而且比索的升值正在影響收入,而且顯然對收入有影響,但它不會直接影響我們最高關稅的實現。
So those macroeconomic effects is implied in the fulfilling of the maximum tariff. So it's fair to say and it's just to let you know that the discounts in TUA has an effect in the maximum tariff, but it's not full. So it would be part of the fulfilling of the maximum tariff during 2023 and the fulfilling of the maximum tariff for 2024.
因此,這些宏觀經濟效應隱含在最高關稅的履行中。所以公平地說,只是讓您知道 TUA 的折扣對最高關稅有影響,但並不全面。因此,這將成為2023年履行最高關稅和2024年履行最高關稅的一部分。
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
How much of the regulated tariff is the TUA or the regulated revenues roughly? It's the majority, right?
TUA 或管制收入約佔管制關稅的多少?這是大多數,對嗎?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Of our aeronautical revenues, it represents around 85% of our total aeronautical revenues.
在我們的航空收入中,它約占我們航空總收入的 85%。
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
Bruno Amorim - Equity Analyst
Okay. So if you lower the TUA by 10%, you lower your revenues on the regulated side by 8.5%. Can there be an offset like increasing tariffs for the airlines?
好的。因此,如果您將 TUA 降低 10%,那麼受監管的收入就會減少 8.5%。是否可以透過提高航空公司的關稅等方式來抵銷?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
It will be some kind of offset because the inflation for all -- for 2024 for all the tariffs included in the TUA will be put in place on the first month of the year. And again, it will be for the maximum tariff for the basket. It's important to know what's going to happen with a possible or with the exchange from peso and dollar and with inflation. So it's not like a completely pass-through from discount. It doesn't have a direct -- I would say, direct effect one-to-one to what it means aeronautical revenues. So it's the mix of the basket. What we announced is that a decrease on the TUA for 9 of our 12 airports of 10% discount.
這將是某種抵消,因為 2024 年 TUA 中包含的所有關稅的通貨膨脹將在今年的第一個月實施。再次強調,這將是針對一籃子產品的最高關稅。重要的是要知道比索和美元的可能兌換或通貨膨脹以及通貨膨脹會發生什麼。所以這並不像是完全的折扣轉嫁。它對航空收入沒有直接的——我想說,一對一的直接影響。所以這是籃子的混合。我們宣布,我們 12 個機場中的 9 個機場的 TUA 降低了 10% 的折扣。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Jay Singh with Citi.
我們將回答花旗銀行傑伊辛格 (Jay Singh) 提出的下一個問題。
Jay Singh
Jay Singh
My first one is how much traffic flow are you guys seeing from the New Mexicana Airlines? Or are they actually selling tickets? And as a follow-up, how much damage have you seen in Cabos because of Hurricane Norma?
我的第一個問題是你們看到新墨西哥航空公司的客流量有多少?還是他們真的在賣票?作為後續行動,您看到卡沃斯因颶風諾瑪遭受了多少損失?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Jay, this is Saul. Well, within our exactly what could be the effect and the benefit in Cabos because of the hurricane. But we believe that, obviously the destination, tourist destinations will be benefited by this diversion of the tourism.
傑伊,這是索爾。好吧,在我們看來,颶風對卡沃斯的影響和好處到底是什麼?但我們相信,顯然目的地、旅遊目的地將受益於這種旅遊分流。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
But yes, but for the case of Norma, I mean saying about what I will say is the case of Otis of the impact of Hurricane of Acapulco, I mean it's terrible a huge destruction there. For sure, some of the passengers would move to other leisure destinations. But for the case of Norma affected a couple of days ago in La Paz and Los Cabos, we don't have major impact on the infrastructure. We only have a closure of their airports for one day. We are seeing a really quick recovery on traffic, on Cabos and in La Paz. So we don't see really major impacts on traffic because it will be only reflect a couple of days of closing, but not just only that.
但是,是的,但是對於諾瑪的情況,我的意思是說我要說的是阿卡普爾科颶風影響的奧蒂斯的情況,我的意思是那裡造成了可怕的巨大破壞。當然,有些乘客會前往其他休閒目的地。但就幾天前在拉巴斯和洛斯卡沃斯受到諾瑪影響的情況而言,我們對基礎設施沒有重大影響。我們只關閉他們的機場一天。我們看到卡沃斯和拉巴斯的交通量恢復得非常快。因此,我們沒有看到對交通的真正重大影響,因為它只會反映關閉的幾天,但不僅如此。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Anton Mortenkotter with GBM.
我們的下一個問題來自 GBM 的 Anton Mortenkotter。
Ernst Anton Mortenkotter - Research Analyst
Ernst Anton Mortenkotter - Research Analyst
I just have 2 quick questions. One is regarding your investments on the commercial front. Given the higher concession fee that will certainly pressure some of your cash flows, do you expect to continue at the same pace that you've been having? I mean I know most of the projects are almost done, but do you expect this to have an effect? And also if are you considering buybacks?
我只有兩個簡單的問題。一是關於您在商業方面的投資。鑑於更高的特許經營費肯定會給您的部分現金流帶來壓力,您是否預計會繼續保持目前的速度?我的意思是,我知道大部分項目都快完成了,但是您預計這會產生效果嗎?另外,您是否正在考慮回購?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Thank you, Anton. In terms of the commercial CapEx, as you know, when we make it efficient to have a major commercial CapEx in place, for sure, we see really short-term recovery rates. I mean we see that the recovery of the investment is really, really fast. For sure, we will incorporate the impact -- the possible impact of the 9% on our business cases. And if the return for the investments still being higher than our WACC as a company and is interesting for the creation value for the company, we will still put in place CapEx. But for sure, we will have to take in account on our business plan, commercial business plans and specific business plans for new CapEx, these new impact. And for sure, in case that the return for the investor is not the correct, we will not put in place that specific additional CapEx.
謝謝你,安東。就商業資本支出而言,如您所知,當我們提高主要商業資本支出到位的效率時,我們肯定會看到真正的短期恢復率。我的意思是我們看到投資的回收真的非常快。當然,我們將納入影響力——9% 對我們的業務案例可能產生的影響。如果投資回報仍然高於我們作為一家公司的 WACC,並且對公司創造價值感興趣,我們仍然會投入資本支出。但可以肯定的是,我們必須考慮我們的業務計劃、商業業務計劃和新資本支出的具體業務計劃,這些新的影響。當然,如果投資者的回報不正確,我們將不會實施特定的額外資本支出。
In case of the buyback, for sure it's something that we will continue analyzing. But it's important to understand that the new rules for WACC will make different -- possible different decisions. We are analyzing that, which is going to be our new cost debt structure for the future. So I will say that for the moment, it is more important for the company to have first the clarity, which is going to be our leverage for the future for instance before we make or we put employees any kind of buyback program.
如果回購的話,我們一定會繼續分析。但重要的是要明白,WACC 的新規則將做出不同的、可能不同的決定。我們正在分析這一點,這將成為我們未來新的成本債務結構。因此,我想說,目前對公司來說更重要的是首先要明確這一點,這將成為我們未來的籌碼,例如在我們制定或讓員工實施任何形式的回購計劃之前。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Pedro Balcao with Santander. And we will move next with Juan Macedo with GBM.
您的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的佩德羅·巴爾考(Pedro Balcao)。接下來我們將與胡安·馬塞多一起討論 GBM。
Juan Macedo Carrillo
Juan Macedo Carrillo
My question is regarding the direct operation of commercial business. Obviously, revenues in that segment have been growing, but also costs. Are you expecting cost to continue growing? Or are they on a normalized level now?
我的問題是關於商業業務的直接經營。顯然,該領域的收入一直在增長,但成本也在增長。您預計成本會繼續成長嗎?或者他們現在處於正常水平嗎?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Juan, it will be -- I mean, they're going to be a part of the cost, I mean, the cost of sale, if the revenues on the direct operations of GAP on the -- some of the business lines that we operate directly as could be the convenience stores of the VIP lounges. For sure, it's a part of the cost that is related of cost of sales. So if the revenues are still growing, we're going to have some kind of growth on the cost of sale, for sure on the total cost. But it is important to say some part of this cost also comes from the new openings, pre-operational costs.
胡安,我的意思是,它們將成為成本的一部分,我的意思是,銷售成本,如果 GAP 直接運營的收入 - 我們的一些業務線直接經營就像貴賓休息室的便利店一樣。當然,它是與銷售成本相關的成本的一部分。因此,如果收入仍在成長,我們的銷售成本(當然是總成本)也會有所成長。但值得一提的是,該成本的一部分也來自新開張的前期營運成本。
And in some of these directly operated by us business, as soon as we are having bigger amounts or bigger volumes, we could achieve better prices for the cost that in some moment will begin to give better margins for this specific business. But in general terms, I would say that some of the costs related with the business directly operated by us, we're still grow in the line or align it with the cost of the growth on the revenues.
在其中一些由我們直接經營的業務中,一旦我們的數量或數量更大,我們就可以實現更好的成本價格,在某個時刻將開始為該特定業務提供更好的利潤。但總的來說,我想說的是,一些與我們直接經營的業務相關的成本,我們仍然在成長,或與收入成長的成本保持一致。
Operator
Operator
We have a follow-up from Pablo Monsivais with Barclays.
我們有來自巴克萊銀行的 Pablo Monsivais 的後續報導。
Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst
Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst
Okay. One question that I wanted to follow up on Bruno's question. Is the TUA that we're seeing in the press, the 10% decrease, is unrelated to these new rules that the government is setting. I mean, there are like 2 different things. You are offering discounts on the TUA, and the rules are a different thing. Can you please clarify that?
好的。我想跟進布魯諾問題的一個問題。我們在媒體上看到的 TUA 下降 10% 與政府制定的這些新規則無關。我的意思是,有兩件事不同。您在 TUA 上提供折扣,但規則是不同的。你能澄清一下嗎?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Pablo, this is Saul. I just want to point out that the discounts in TUA happen almost every year. We do regularly as far as our incentives to the market, to the airlines. We provide a different kind of discounts, not only in TUA, we provide discounts when they open additional groups, when the airlines add additional frequencies. So it's part of the business. And but we have to take into consideration is the fulfilling of the maximum tariffs. That's our target.
巴勃羅,這是索爾。我只想指出,TUA 的折扣幾乎每年都會發生。我們定期對市場和航空公司進行激勵。我們提供不同類型的折扣,不僅在 TUA 中,當他們開設額外的團體時,當航空公司增加額外的航班頻率時,我們也提供折扣。所以這是業務的一部分。但我們必須考慮的是最高關稅的履行。這就是我們的目標。
And as you know, we are in almost 99% of the fulfilling tariff that will be affecting us. There are other 2 effects, the exchange rate, the appreciation of the threshold, and also the inflation applicable to the tariffs. So just to be clear, the discounts in TUA will be 10% for these 2 months of the year, November and December. And for 2024, will be the discounts in TUA the same. But we will have to update all the specific tariffs, not only TUA's, all the specific tariffs for the full years with inflation.
如您所知,我們幾乎 99% 的履行關稅都會對我們產生影響。還有其他兩個影響,即匯率、門檻升值以及適用於關稅的通貨膨脹。需要明確的是,一年中的這 2 個月,即 11 月和 12 月,TUA 的折扣將為 10%。 2024 年,TUA 折扣將維持不變。但我們必須更新所有具體關稅,不僅是 TUA 的關稅,還有通貨膨脹全年的所有特定關稅。
So at the end, and again just to try to point out, our target is to fill the 100% of the maximum target. Last year, we reached around 96% of the maximum target and what we are expecting at the end of this year around 98%, 97.5% and for 2024 we will see what will be the range, but probably will be repeating that in that area, 98%, 99% percent of the maximum tariff.
最後,再次嘗試指出,我們的目標是達到最大目標的 100%。去年,我們達到了最大目標的 96% 左右,預計今年年底將達到 98%、97.5% 左右,到 2024 年,我們將看到這個範圍,但可能會在該領域重複這一目標、最高關稅的98 %、99%。
Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst
Pablo Monsivais Mendoza - Assistant VP & Lead Research Analyst
Okay. And just a follow-up on this. Like we have seen the share price at it dramatically move to the downside. What is the piece of information that the market or us, we're not understanding based on what we have here on the rules? What do you think is a key issue to close the gap and to understand what is the economic impact, the actual economic impact of these changes?
好的。這只是後續行動。就像我們看到它的股價急劇下跌一樣。根據我們現有的規則,市場或我們不了解的資訊是什麼?您認為縮小差距並了解這些變化的經濟影響和實際經濟影響的關鍵問題是什麼?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Pablo, I think that the main difference is the change in discount rate from key to WACC, and that's the main part. Just to know what could be the effect is complicated to say now. We have to continue with our regular review with the reporting in terms of CapEx, in terms of the MDP, the different inputs, the OpEx, that it's can rate everything. I think the effect on the short price is more the uncertainty about the basis were announced by the government and we didn't know exactly.
Pablo,我認為主要的區別是折扣率從 key 到 WACC 的變化,這是主要部分。現在很難說清楚可能會產生什麼影響。我們必須繼續定期審查資本支出、MDP、不同投入、營運支出方面的報告,它可以對一切進行評級。我認為對空頭價格的影響更多的是政府宣布的基差的不確定性,而我們並不確切知道。
But after different meetings and conversations, I think we have a regular basis that you can see is attached in our last week press release is fully explained there, and I think this, in terms of interpretation, is more the perception of the market than a real change. We will see what is the real effect in terms of return until next year when we are at the end of the year, the different inputs, the different rates, the composition, the capital structure of the balance sheet of the company. With all different assumptions, we will have more visibility on that. But for now, it's just to let you know where the new rules are translated and it's in our press release. And you can go through and see all the main changes.
但經過不同的會議和對話後,我認為我們有一個定期的基礎,你可以看到我們上週的新聞稿中所附的內容得到了充分的解釋,我認為,就解釋而言,這更多的是市場的看法,而不是市場的看法。真正的改變。直到明年年底,我們才會看到不同的投入、不同的利率、公司資產負債表的組成和資本結構對報酬率的真正影響是什麼。透過所有不同的假設,我們將對此有更多的了解。但目前,我們只是讓您知道新規則的翻譯位置,它位於我們的新聞稿中。您可以瀏覽並查看所有主要變更。
Operator
Operator
We will now take our webcast questions. I will turn the call over to management.
我們現在將回答網路廣播問題。我會將電話轉交給管理階層。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Thank you. We have several questions in the webcast. There are one of them that we have already answered, so I will skip those ones. So I will start with the question of Pablo Coloma from MetLife. Is it fair to assume that EBITDA margin will reduce by 4% with the new concession fee in 2024? Is a 66% the new expected level of the company going forward?
謝謝。我們在網路廣播中有幾個問題。我們已經回答了其中一個問題,所以我將跳過這些問題。我將從大都會人壽的 Pablo Coloma 的問題開始。假設 2024 年實施新的特許經營費後 EBITDA 利潤率將減少 4% 是否公平? 66%是公司未來的新預期水準嗎?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Thank you, Pablo. I will say that today we were, or for the coming day, for the coming year, we were going to make a big effort in terms of the cost management. So today, I would say that it is not completely clear which is going to be the impact on the margin, because we have a couple of effects today to the table. We have the effects of the engines, but we are not pretty clear today about the size of that impact. In the other hand, we have the temporary impact on the aeronautical revenue coming from the change on the concession fee. But also we have part of our revenues that comes from Jamaica and are not fully, I would say, affected or not affected by these changes on the law of federal rights.
謝謝你,巴布羅。我想說,今天,或明天,來年,我們要在成本管理上做出很大的努力。所以今天,我想說的是,尚不完全清楚哪一個會對利潤率產生影響,因為今天我們有幾個影響。我們受到了引擎的影響,但目前我們還不太清楚這種影響的大小。另一方面,特許經營費的變化對航空收入有暫時影響。但我們的部分收入也來自牙買加,我想說,這些收入並沒有完全受到聯邦權利法變動的影響。
So in that view, I would say that this for us its early to completely say which is going to be the impact on the margin for the coming year. I could assure you as management, we are working to offset any kind of trying to offset the maximum on all the effort on the cost management to have the correct margin for the company. But again, today is still being early to understand the impact.
因此,從這個角度來看,我想說,對我們來說,現在完全確定這將對來年利潤率產生影響還為時過早。我可以向你們保證,作為管理層,我們正在努力抵消任何試圖抵消成本管理上所有努力的最大努力,以便為公司獲得正確的利潤。但同樣,今天了解其影響還為時過早。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
And now I am going to move to [Ana Cecilia Reyes]. She is from [Grupo VAL]. She has some questions. Having a little more clarity on the regulation changes, did you plan to continue with the issue of the new bonds? And also, are there any changes on the dividend policy?
現在我要搬到[Ana Cecilia Reyes]。她來自[Grupo VAL]。她有一些問題。對監管變化有了更多的了解,您是否計劃繼續發行新債券?另外,股利政策是否有變動?
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
I will say that today we are not -- we don't have yet which is going to be the policy for the next master plan 2025 to 2029. We need to run the numbers, we need to understand what's going to be the new tariffs, the new CapEx, and then we will make the decisions about our policies of leverage and dividends. So for the moment, it's not clear which is going to be our future policy.
我想說的是,今天我們還沒有——我們還沒有確定 2025 年至 2029 年下一個總體規劃的政策。我們需要計算數字,我們需要了解新關稅是什麼,新的資本支出,然後我們將做出有關槓桿和股利政策的決定。因此,目前還不清楚我們未來的政策是什麼。
We need to understand which is going to be the new tariff on the next regulation and on the next review of the maximum tariff and to understand the size of the CapEx and to understand specifically in which year I will need to put in place which size of investment and which kind of investment. So in general terms, I would say that today we don't have yet the clarity to say which is going to be the new or our dividend and leverage policy for the 2025-2029 period.
我們需要了解下一次監管和下一次最高關稅審查的新關稅,並了解資本支出的規模,並具體了解我需要在哪一年實施何種規模的關稅投資以及哪種投資。因此,總的來說,我想說,今天我們還不清楚哪一個將是 2025-2029 年期間的新股息和槓桿政策。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Thank you, Raul. I am going to move to Alejandro Fuchs questions. He has 2. The first one, the concession tax going to 9%. On the bill presented, it says that the tax is paid on gross sales as it was in the past. If I understood correctly on the remarks, you mentioned that it was on aeronautical revenue. Has that changed?
謝謝你,勞爾。我將轉向亞歷杭德羅·福克斯的問題。他有2個。第一個,優惠稅達到9%。在提交的法案中,它說像過去一樣按銷售總額繳納稅款。如果我對這些言論的理解正確的話,你提到這是航空收入。那改變了嗎?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Alejandro, it's basically the same calculation, the same methodology to apply these tax. The change is only about from 5% to 9%. That's the change. Everything is the same.
亞歷杭德羅,基本上是相同的計算,相同的方法來應用這些稅。變化大約只有5%到9%。這就是變化。一切都一樣。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
And the second one, you mentioned that higher cost concession tax will be passed through higher tariff, if I understand correctly. But on the new law, that clause was taken. Could you please clarify this point as well?
第二個問題,如果我理解正確的話,您提到更高的成本優惠稅將透過更高的關稅來傳遞。但新法採納了該條款。您能否也澄清這一點?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Yes. The maximum tariff includes the cost of the concession fees. In general terms, we will include this for the MDP for '25-'29. For the year '24, because this new deal will be enacted in January 1, '24, we will include the excess of the payment over the aeronautical revenues on the next reference value that will be used for the calculation of the period '25-'29.
是的。最高關稅包括特許權費用。一般而言,我們將在 '25-'29 的 MDP 中包含此內容。對於 24 年,由於這項新政將於 24 年 1 月 1 日頒布,因此我們將在下一個參考值中納入支付超過航空收入的部分,該參考值將用於計算 25- '29。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Thank you, Saul. Well, now I'm going to move to [Marco Montanez from Vector]. And he says, reviewing the formula to calculate the maximum tariff, it seems that the companies have the incentive to increase the leverage to increase the discount rate. What do you think? And which would be the equilibrium to increase the discount rate versus increase the leverage?
謝謝你,索爾。好吧,現在我要轉到[來自 Vector 的 Marco Montanez]。他表示,回顧最高關稅的計算公式,公司似乎有動機增加槓桿以提高貼現率。你怎麼認為?增加折現率與增加槓桿的平衡點是什麼?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
[Marco], well, it's some way to see it, but we will have to do a deeper analysis on that, what is the best balance for the company. Obviously, looking for the higher return for our investors. We have to think that moving from key to WACC is a huge difference, and we have to analyze the total effects into the discount rate. So it's something that we will go deeper in the following months, and we have, as Raul explained early, that we have almost a year to analyze and to see what could be the real effect in terms of the discount rate.
[Marco],嗯,這是一種看待它的方式,但我們必須對此進行更深入的分析,什麼是公司的最佳平衡。顯然,我們正在為我們的投資者尋找更高的回報。我們必須認為從關鍵轉向加權平均資本成本是一個巨大的差異,我們必須分析折現率的總影響。因此,我們將在接下來的幾個月中更深入地研究這個問題,正如勞爾早些時候解釋的那樣,我們有近一年的時間來分析並看看貼現率方面可能產生的真正影響。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
I'm just complimenting the elsewhere of Saul. Again, it's important to think that the effect is not only related on the tariff by itself. The tariff, the new tariff that we could have in 2025 to 2029, we need to see the full picture. That means CapEx, leverage, and dividend policy. So as soon as we have clarity about that, we could say which could be the new policies in that way for GAP. What is important is trying not to insulate just the effect of the maximum tariff of the future year, but seeing as a full picture that incorporates the CapEx, the leverage and the dividends in different ways for understanding what is going to be the policy for the future of the company.
我只是讚揚索爾的其他方面。同樣,重要的是要考慮到這種影響不僅與關稅本身有關。關稅,我們可能在 2025 年至 2029 年實施的新關稅,我們需要了解整體情況。這意味著資本支出、槓桿和股利政策。因此,一旦我們弄清楚了這一點,我們就可以說哪些可能是 GAP 的新政策。重要的是,不要只考慮未來一年最高關稅的影響,而是以不同方式看待資本支出、槓桿和股息的整體情況,以了解未來一年的政策。公司的未來。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
[Kenton Morhez from DWS]. She is asking if this increase in tax from 5% to 9% includes Aero and non-Aero, correct? Both Aero can be recovered, is that right?
[DWS 的肯頓·莫赫茲]。她問的是,稅收從 5% 增加到 9% 是否包括航空和非航空,對嗎?兩個 Aero 都可以恢復,是嗎?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Kenton, that's correct. It's basically, the same effect and calculation that we have before. It's just the change in terms of the percentage that should be applicable to the aero and non-aero revenues.
肯頓,這是正確的。基本上,效果和計算與我們之前的相同。這只是適用於航空和非航空收入的百分比變化。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
And Pablo Coloma from MetLife again here. What will apply with the sustained debt issuance? Will you come back to the market? Do you think that that cost could have increased with the new regulation?
來自大都會人壽的 Pablo Coloma 又來了。持續發債有何適用?你會回到市場嗎?您認為新法規實施後成本會增加嗎?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Well, as I was explaining, we will analyze that because the level of leverage is really important so far. We know that the study from the company last year was to leverage 100% of our CapEx. We have a huge commitment in terms of CapEx for at the end of this year and for next year, and we have to finalize the new MDP to review and define. That is something that we will analyze in the following months and decide as soon as possible. But for now, it's something that we are analyzing.
嗯,正如我所解釋的,我們將對此進行分析,因為到目前為止槓桿水平確實很重要。我們知道公司去年的研究是利用我們 100% 的資本支出。我們在今年年底和明年的資本支出方面做出了巨大的承諾,我們必須最終確定新的 MDP 來審查和定義。我們將在接下來的幾個月中對此進行分析並儘快做出決定。但目前,我們正在分析這一點。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
And the last one comes from Evan Kurtz from Lord Abbett. Is the WACC calculation based on net debt to total cap or gross debt to total cap?
最後一位來自阿貝特勳爵的埃文·庫爾茨 (Evan Kurtz)。 WACC 計算是基於淨債務與總上限的比還是總債務與總上限的比?
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Saul Villarreal Garcia - CFO
Evan, I'm sorry. This is the other total debt.
埃文,對不起。這是其他總債務。
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Maria Barona - Co-Founder and MD
Perfect. So thank you Saul. And with this we will finish the webcast call. And I will return the work to Raul Revuelta for the final remarks.
完美的。所以謝謝你索爾。這樣我們就完成了網路廣播通話。我會將這份工作交還給 Raul Revuelta,讓他作最後的評論。
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Raul Revuelta Musalem - CEO
Thank you everyone for joining us today in our third quarter results conference. The team remains available to answer any questions you may have. Please enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you very much.
感謝大家今天參加我們的第三季業績會議。團隊隨時可以回答您的任何問題。請享受這一天剩下的時間。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
And this will conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。