西方石油 (OXY) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Occidental's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加西方石油公司 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Alvarez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Alvarez。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental's First Quarter 2022 Conference Call. On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Rob Peterson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Richard Jackson, President of Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management.

謝謝你，德魯。大家下午好，感謝您參加西方石油公司 2022 年第一季度電話會議。今天與我們通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Vicki Hollub； Rob Peterson，高級副總裁兼首席財務官；和美國陸上資源和碳管理運營總裁理查德傑克遜。

This afternoon, we will refer to slides available on the Investors section of our website. The presentation includes a cautionary statement on Slide 2 regarding forward-looking statements that will be made on the call this afternoon.

今天下午，我們將參考我們網站投資者部分的幻燈片。該演示文稿包括幻燈片 2 上關於將在今天下午的電話會議上做出的前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明。

I will now turn the call over to Vicki. Vicki, please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 Vicki。維姬，請繼續。

Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. We're especially proud of our results this quarter as our strong operational and financial performance enabled us to generate our highest reported and adjusted earnings in over a decade, resulting in an annualized return on capital employed of 21% when calculated with adjusted earnings. We also reported a record level of free cash flow for the fifth consecutive quarter. The increase in free cash flow compared to last quarter was achieved as we began executing on our 2022 capital plan to support our cash flow longevity.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家下午好。我們對本季度的業績感到特別自豪，因為我們強勁的運營和財務業績使我們能夠產生十多年來最高的報告和調整後收益，當按調整後收益計算時，所用資本的年化回報率為 21%。我們還連續第五個季度報告了創紀錄水平的自由現金流。隨著我們開始執行 2022 年資本計劃以支持我們的現金流壽命，自由現金流與上一季度相比有所增加。

As we will detail in a few minutes, we made meaningful progress towards our near-term goal of retiring $5 billion of debt. We remain focused on reducing debt this year as we advance our shareholder return framework. We repaid over $3.6 billion of debt as a part of the near-term goals we announced last quarter to repay an additional $5 billion of principal and lower net debt to $20 billion. Once the $5 billion target has been achieved, we -- our focus will expand to the $3 billion share repurchase program.

正如我們將在幾分鐘內詳述的那樣，我們在實現償還 50 億美元債務的近期目標方面取得了有意義的進展。隨著我們推進股東回報框架，我們今年仍然專注於減少債務。作為我們上個季度宣布的近期目標的一部分，我們償還了超過 36 億美元的債務，即額外償還 50 億美元的本金並將淨債務降低至 200 億美元。一旦實現了 50 億美元的目標，我們的重點將擴大到 30 億美元的股票回購計劃。

When this first phase of our shareholder return framework is complete, we will continue to focus on debt reduction until we have achieved the face value of our debt to the high teens. When we have line of sight on reaching this milestone, we will detail the next phase of our shareholder return framework. During our most recent earnings call, we spoke about the importance of lowering our interest expense to support a dividend that can sustainably grow throughout the cycle. Continuing to lower debt, combined with managing the number of shares outstanding, will enhance the sustainability of our dividend while positioning us to increase it at the appropriate time.

當我們的股東回報框架的第一階段完成後，我們將繼續專注於減少債務，直到我們達到對青少年債務的面值。當我們看到達到這一里程碑時，我們將詳細介紹下一階段的股東回報框架。在我們最近的財報電話會議上，我們談到了降低利息支出以支持在整個週期內可持續增長的股息的重要性。繼續降低債務，結合管理流通股數量，將提高我們股息的可持續性，同時讓我們在適當的時候增加股息。

This morning, I will cover our first quarter operational performance and Rob will cover our financial results as well as our updated guidance, which includes an increase in guidance for OxyChem and midstream's 2022 earnings. Our first quarter results are a great example of how Oxy's operational excellence and asset portfolio position our shareholders to benefit from a high commodity price environment. In the first quarter, we generated $3.3 billion of free cash flow. This is more than twice what we generated in the first quarter of 2021, which at that time was our highest level of free cash flow in over a decade. Our strong financial results were driven by our business delivering exceptional performance while practicing disciplined capital allocation and cost control, combined with the benefits of an improved financial position and higher commodity prices.

今天早上，我將介紹我們的第一季度運營業績，Rob 將介紹我們的財務業績以及我們更新的指導，其中包括增加對 OxyChem 和中游 2022 年收益的指導。我們的第一季度業績很好地說明了 Oxy 的卓越運營和資產組合如何使我們的股東從高商品價格環境中受益。第一季度，我們產生了 33 億美元的自由現金流。這是我們在 2021 年第一季度產生的兩倍多，當時是我們十年來最高水平的自由現金流。我們強勁的財務業績是由我們的業務在實施嚴格的資本分配和成本控制的同時提供卓越的業績，以及財務狀況改善和商品價格上漲帶來的好處所推動的。

Switching to operational performance. We delivered first quarter production from continuing operations of approximately 1.1 million BOE per day, in line with the midpoint of our guidance and with total company-wide spending -- capital spending of $858 million. Our international operations successfully completed their scheduled turnarounds in the quarter and production has returned to normalized levels. Compared to the first quarter, we expect international production to increase accordingly in the second quarter. While higher prices are expected to lower our full year international guidance under our production sharing contracts, we expect the impact to be fully offset by outperformance in our Rockies and Gulf of Mexico businesses. As I mentioned during our last call, we expect company-wide production to grow from the second quarter through the end of the year as our targeted capital investments sustain 2022 average production in line with the previous year.

切換到運營績效。我們第一季度的持續運營產量約為每天 110 萬桶油當量，符合我們指導的中點以及全公司的總支出——資本支出為 8.58 億美元。我們的國際業務在本季度成功完成了預定的周轉，生產已恢復到正常水平。與第一季度相比，我們預計第二季度國際產量將相應增加。雖然較高的價格預計將降低我們根據生產分成合同的全年國際指導，但我們預計落基山脈和墨西哥灣業務的出色表現將完全抵消這種影響。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們預計公司範圍內的產量將從第二季度到年底增長，因為我們的目標資本投資使 2022 年的平均產量與上一年持平。

OxyChem's performance continued to exceed expectations as the business benefited from robust pricing in the caustic, chlorine and PVC markets. OxyChem delivered record earnings this quarter, which we expect to contribute to 2022 being another record year for the business. Following several consecutive record quarters, we see the potential for market conditions to dampen slightly in the second half of the year, though the long-term fundamentals continue to remain supportive. I'm very proud of OxyChem's workforce who recently received 13 Responsible Care and 15 facility safety awards from the American Chemistry Council for their 2021 performance.

OxyChem 的業績繼續超出預期，因為該業務受益於苛性鹼、氯和 PVC 市場的強勁定價。 OxyChem 本季度實現了創紀錄的收益，我們預計 2022 年將成為該業務又一個創紀錄的一年。在連續幾個創紀錄的季度之後，儘管長期基本面繼續保持支撐，我們認為下半年市場狀況可能會略有減弱。我為 OxyChem 的員工感到非常自豪，他們最近因 2021 年的表現而獲得了美國化學委員會頒發的 13 項責任關懷獎和 15 項設施安全獎。

Midstream and marketing's outperformance compared to guidance in the first quarter was primarily driven by higher margins from gas processing and sulfur sales and our ability to optimize gas transportation in the Permian and Rockies and the timing of export sales. While short-term opportunities in the commodity markets are difficult to predict, our midstream team excels at finding and taking full advantage of such opportunities when they arise. I'm pleased to say that our first quarter results continue to demonstrate how the quality of the assets, the talent of our teams and our improved financial position serve as catalysts for strong financial results and provide a solid foundation for free cash flow generation.

與第一季度的指導相比，中游和營銷的表現優於預期主要是由於天然氣加工和硫磺銷售的利潤率提高，以及我們優化二疊紀和落基山脈天然氣運輸的能力以及出口銷售的時機。雖然大宗商品市場的短期機會難以預測，但我們的中游團隊擅長在此類機會出現時發現並充分利用這些機會。我很高興地說，我們的第一季度業績繼續證明資產質量、我們團隊的人才和我們改善的財務狀況如何成為強勁財務業績的催化劑，並為自由現金流的產生奠定堅實的基礎。

Our teams did an excellent job of managing the planned turnarounds and maintenance projects this quarter. We completed turnarounds in Algeria, Al Hosn and Dolphin and a series of maintenance projects in the Gulf of Mexico. Completing these planned projects increase the reliability and efficiency of our assets. The Al Hosn turnaround involved the first full plant shutdown, during which time we safely completed over 500 tie-ins related to the expansion project. The expansion is progressing as planned with the capacity increase expected to be online towards the middle of next year.

我們的團隊在本季度管理計劃的周轉和維護項目方面做得非常出色。我們在阿爾及利亞、Al Hosn 和 Dolphin 完成了檢修，並在墨西哥灣完成了一系列維護項目。完成這些計劃中的項目可提高我們資產的可靠性和效率。 Al Hosn 的改造涉及第一次工廠全面關閉，在此期間我們安全地完成了與擴建項目相關的 500 多個連接。擴建正在按計劃進行，產能增加預計將在明年年中上線。

Our Rockies team brought online their largest pad ever with 23 wells and drilled their longest lateral to date at over 15,000 feet. That business continues to perform well, with strong well productivity and higher-than-expected NGL yields driving first quarter performance. Our team in the Midland Basin had similar success bringing online the 12-well 15,000-foot development we mentioned on our most recent earnings call. And in Algeria, we drilled and completed Oxy's first development well in 2022 with time to market for the completion and hookup significantly exceeding prior performance. These are just a few of the many operational achievements our teams continue to deliver each quarter.

我們的落基山脈團隊使用 23 口井將他們有史以來最大的平台上線，並在超過 15,000 英尺處鑽探了迄今為止最長的橫向鑽井。該業務繼續表現良好，強勁的油井生產力和高於預期的 NGL 產量推動了第一季度的業績。我們在米德蘭盆地的團隊也取得了類似的成功，將我們在最近一次財報電話會議上提到的 12 口井 15,000 英尺的開發項目上線。在阿爾及利亞，我們於 2022 年鑽探並完成了 Oxy 的第一口開發井，完成和連接的上市時間大大超過了之前的表現。這些只是我們團隊每個季度繼續交付的眾多運營成就中的一小部分。

In addition to focusing on operational improvements, we continue to pursue new and resourceful ways to reduce emissions. For example, in the DJ and Permian Basins, we successfully trialed a new in-house methane detection system that will help us on our net 0 pathway. We also plan to build on the success of our water recycling partnership by developing similar systems and additional locations this year.

除了專注於運營改進之外，我們還繼續尋求新的和資源豐富的方法來減少排放。例如，在 DJ 和二疊紀盆地，我們成功試用了一種新的內部甲烷檢測系統，該系統將幫助我們實現淨 0 路徑。我們還計劃在今年通過開發類似的系統和其他地點來鞏固我們的水循環合作夥伴關係的成功。

I'll now turn the call over to Rob, who will walk you through our first quarter results and guidance.

我現在將把電話轉給 Rob，他將向您介紹我們的第一季度業績和指導。

Thank you, Vicki, and good afternoon. Our cash flow priorities continue to direct free cash flow allocation in the first quarter as we repaid an additional debt in April and paid the first distribution of our increased common dividend. On our last call, we detailed our near-term debt reduction targets, including repaying $5 billion of debt and reducing net debt to $20 billion. Our progress towards meeting these targets advanced significantly in the first quarter.

謝謝你，維姬，下午好。我們的現金流優先事項繼續指導第一季度的自由現金流分配，因為我們在 4 月份償還了額外的債務並支付了我們增加的普通股息的第一次分配。在上次電話會議上，我們詳細說明了我們的近期債務削減目標，包括償還 50 億美元的債務並將淨債務減少至 200 億美元。我們在實現這些目標方面的進展在第一季度取得了顯著進展。

We repaid approximately $3.3 billion of debt and ended the quarter with net debt of $23.3 billion, reflecting the face value of our debt of $25.2 billion and the unrestricted cash balance of $1.9 billion. Repaying $3.3 billion of debt in the first quarter was accomplished through a combination of a $2.9 billion tender offer, exercising the call provision on a note and open market repurchases. Following quarter end, we retired approximately $300 million in additional debt using open-market repurchases, lowering gross debt to approximately $24.9 billion, which is the balance today.

我們償還了大約 33 億美元的債務，本季度末的淨債務為 233 億美元，反映了我們 252 億美元債務的面值和 19 億美元的非限制性現金餘額。第一季度償還 33 億美元的債務是通過 29 億美元的要約收購、行使票據的贖回條款和公開市場回購完成的。在季度末，我們通過公開市場回購償還了大約 3 億美元的額外債務，將總債務降低到大約 249 億美元，這是今天的餘額。

It is reasonable to expect that we could meet our near-term debt targets and then initiate our share repurchase program during the second quarter. Once we complete our near-term debt reduction target and repurchased $3 billion of shares, we will continue to allocate free cash flow to repaying debt as we lower gross debt to the high teens in billions. We believe reducing debt to this level will speed our return to investment grade and better position us to sustain a greater dividend at lower prices. When we reach this stage, we intend to transition from proactively reducing debt to primarily addressing maturities as they come due.

有理由預期我們可以實現我們的近期債務目標，然後在第二季度啟動我們的股票回購計劃。一旦我們完成了我們的近期債務削減目標並回購了 30 億美元的股票，我們將繼續分配自由現金流來償還債務，因為我們將總債務降低到數十億美元。我們相信，將債務降至這一水平將加快我們回歸投資級別的速度，並使我們能夠更好地以更低的價格維持更大的股息。當我們達到這個階段時，我們打算從主動減少債務過渡到主要解決到期債務問題。

Our debt reduction efforts continue to receive positive recognition. Since our last earnings call, Moody's upgraded our credit rating to Ba1 with a positive outlook. All 3 of the major credit rating agencies now rate our debt as 1 notch below investment grade, which we view as recognition of the pronounced and ongoing improvement in our credit profile.

我們的減債努力繼續獲得積極肯定。自上次財報電話會議以來，穆迪將我們的信用評級上調至 Ba1，展望正面。所有 3 家主要信用評級機構現在都將我們的債務評級為低於投資級別 1 個等級，我們認為這是對我們信用狀況顯著和持續改善的認可。

Our consistently strong operational results in combination with the current commodity price environment are driving improved profitability on top of our already robust free cash flow generation. In the first quarter, we announced an adjusted profit of $2.12 per diluted share, our highest adjusted core EPS in over a decade; and reported profit of $4.65 per diluted share. The difference between our adjusted and reported profit for the quarter was mainly driven by the legal entity reorganization described in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings. Following the completion of our large-scale post-acquisition divestiture program, a portion of the existing tax basis was reallocated to operating assets, thus reducing our deferred tax liabilities by approximately $2.6 billion, which was recognized in our reported earnings for the quarter.

我們一貫強勁的運營業績與當前的商品價格環境相結合，在我們已經強勁的自由現金流產生的基礎上推動了盈利能力的提高。第一季度，我們宣布調整後的每股攤薄利潤為 2.12 美元，這是我們十年來最高的調整後核心每股收益；並報告每股攤薄收益 4.65 美元。本季度調整後利潤與報告利潤之間的差異主要是由於我們最近提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中描述的法人實體重組所致。在我們完成大規模收購後剝離計劃後，現有稅基的一部分被重新分配給運營資產，從而將我們的遞延所得稅負債減少了約 26 億美元，這在我們本季度報告的收益中得到了確認。

We resumed paying U.S. federal cash taxes in the quarter, ahead of our earlier expectation. This was due in part to the strong earnings generated in the first quarter, combined with our expectations for commodity prices and earnings over the remainder of the year. Given current commodity price expectations, we now expect to exhaust our U.S. net operating losses and most of our general business credit carryforwards this year. However, the NOLs and credits that we currently have remaining are expected to limit the amount of cash taxes paid this year. For example, we would expect to pay approximately $600 million in U.S. federal cash taxes if WTI averaged $90 per barrel in 2022.

我們在本季度恢復繳納美國聯邦現金稅，超出了我們之前的預期。這部分是由於第一季度產生的強勁收益，以及我們對今年剩餘時間商品價格和收益的預期。鑑於目前的大宗商品價格預期，我們現在預計今年將耗盡我們在美國的淨經營虧損和大部分一般商業信貸結轉。但是，我們目前剩餘的 NOL 和抵免額預計將限制今年支付的現金稅額。例如，如果 2022 年 WTI 的平均價格為每桶 90 美元，我們預計將支付大約 6 億美元的美國聯邦現金稅。

The increase in commodity prices certainly benefited us during the quarter, as demonstrated by our strong earnings and free cash flow generation. The commodity price environment improvement compared to the previous quarter also resulted in higher accounts receivable balances, which contributed to a negative working capital change. Negative working capital change was also driven by typical first quarter payments such as semi-annual interest payments, annual property tax payments and payments on our compensation plan. As was the case in 2021, we see the potential for the working capital change to partially reverse over the remainder of the year if commodity prices are stable and due to payments accrued during the year being made in subsequent first quarter.

正如我們強勁的收益和自由現金流的產生所證明的那樣，本季度商品價格的上漲無疑使我們受益。與上一季度相比，商品價格環境的改善也導致應收賬款餘額增加，從而導致營運資金出現負變化。負營運資本變化也受到典型的第一季度支付的推動，例如半年利息支付、年度財產稅支付和我們的薪酬計劃支付。與 2021 年的情況一樣，如果大宗商品價格穩定並且由於當年應計的款項將在隨後的第一季度支付，我們認為營運資金變化可能會在今年剩餘時間內部分逆轉。

We are pleased to be able to update our full year guidance for midstream and OxyChem, reflecting strong first quarter performance and improved market conditions. Our revised full year guidance for OxyChem now includes the expectation of a fourth consecutive record for quarterly earnings in the second quarter. We recognize the possibility of softer product prices later in the year but still expect the third and fourth quarters to be exceptionally strong by historical standards.

我們很高興能夠更新我們對中游和 OxyChem 的全年指導，這反映了強勁的第一季度業績和改善的市場狀況。我們修訂後的 OxyChem 全年指引現在包括對第二季度季度收益連續第四個記錄的預期。我們認識到今年晚些時候產品價格可能走軟，但仍預計第三和第四季度的歷史標準將異常強勁。

As Vicki mentioned, our Rockies business continues to perform well. Our expectation of continued strong well performance over the remainder of the year provides us with confidence to raise full year guidance for the Rockies by 5,000 BOE per day.

正如 Vicki 所說，我們的落基山脈業務繼續表現良好。我們對今年剩餘時間內持續強勁的良好表現的預期使我們有信心每天將落基山脈的全年指導提高 5,000 桶油當量。

On previous calls, we've discussed how we've been working closely with Colorado communities and regulators in implementing the state's new permitting process. Our drilling permits we have in hand are sufficient to run a single rig for the remainder of 2022. It is no longer feasible for us to run a multi-rig program for Colorado this year given the current pace of state approvals. As a result, we plan to reallocate activity from the Rockies to the Permian in the second half of the year. This activity change will not impact our 2022 production and is included in domestic onshore activity slide in the appendix to our earnings presentation.

在之前的電話會議中，我們討論了我們如何與科羅拉多州社區和監管機構密切合作以實施該州的新許可程序。我們手頭的鑽井許可證足以在 2022 年剩餘時間內運行一個鑽井平台。鑑於目前的州批准速度，我們今年在科羅拉多州運行一個多鑽井平台計劃不再可行。因此，我們計劃在下半年將活動從落基山脈重新分配到二疊紀。這一活動變化不會影響我們 2022 年的產量，並包含在我們收益報告附錄中的國內陸上活動幻燈片中。

We plan to submit development plans in the coming months that will cover over 1,100 rig days. We are hopeful that as Colorado's new permitting process matures, it will continue to become more efficient. Regulatory certainty early on in the process would provide us with the option to add activity back in the Rockies in future years given oil and gas development plans we expect to submit for this year.

我們計劃在未來幾個月提交開發計劃，涵蓋 1,100 多個鑽機日。我們希望隨著科羅拉多州新的許可程序的成熟，它將繼續變得更有效率。鑑於我們預計今年將提交的石油和天然氣開發計劃，該過程早期的監管確定性將為我們提供在未來幾年增加落基山脈活動的選擇。

While our company-wide full year guidance is unchanged, as Vicki mentioned, we have included a 6,000 BOE per day downward adjustment to our full year international guidance, reflecting the impact of higher oil prices in our production sharing contracts. Our original budget included a forecast of $73 for Brent while our revised guidance reflects a Brent average price of $95 for 2022. Inclusive of these activity changes, our 2022 capital guidance remains at $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion.

正如 Vicki 所說，雖然我們全公司的全年指引保持不變，但我們已將全年國際指引每天下調 6,000 桶油當量，這反映了我們的生產分成合同中油價上漲的影響。我們最初的預算包括對布倫特原油 73 美元的預測，而我們的修訂指引反映了 2022 年布倫特原油平均價格為 95 美元。包括這些活動變化在內，我們 2022 年的資本指引仍為 39 億美元至 43 億美元。

We mentioned on our last call that our 2022 capital guidance incorporates approximately $250 million of inflation compared to 2021. Cost of materials and services necessary for operations, especially onshore in the United States, has continued to increase. We are working to offset inflationary pressures through additional efficiency. But if price increases continue, we may spin near the top end of our capital guidance this year. Certain pricing pressures such as labor and our WTI index CO2 purchase contracts in the EOR business have become pressing, leading to a slight upward adjustment in our full year guidance for domestic OpEx.

我們在上次電話會議中提到，與 2021 年相比，我們的 2022 年資本指引包含約 2.5 億美元的通貨膨脹。運營所需的材料和服務成本，尤其是在美國境內，持續增加。我們正在努力通過提高效率來抵消通脹壓力。但如果價格繼續上漲，我們今年可能會接近我們資本指導的上限。某些定價壓力，如勞動力和我們在 EOR 業務中的 WTI 指數 CO2 採購合同變得緊迫，導致我們對國內運營支出的全年指導略有上調。

We are pleased with our strong start to 2022. With one full quarter behind us, we have completed scheduled turnarounds, continued to pay down debt, established a shareholder return framework, provided a comprehensive update on our low-carbon strategy and set new quarterly records for earnings and cash flow. We will continue to focus on delivering value for shareholders this year and beyond.

我們對 2022 年的強勁開局感到高興。在過去整整一個季度之後，我們已經完成了預定的周轉，繼續償還債務，建立了股東回報框架，全面更新了我們的低碳戰略並創造了新的季度記錄對於收益和現金流。今年及以後，我們將繼續專注於為股東創造價值。

I will now turn the call back over to Vicki.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Vicki。

Thank you, Rob. I would like to thank our shareholders for voting with the Board at our recent Annual Meeting and defeating a proposal that if approved, would have been counterproductive as we work towards achieving our net 0 ambition. Our quantitative short-, medium- and long-term goals for Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions are directly aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, our competitive strengths as a carbon management leader and our strategy to achieve net 0 before 2050.

謝謝你，羅布。我要感謝我們的股東在我們最近的年度會議上與董事會一起投票並否決了一項提案，如果該提案獲得批准，將會適得其反，因為我們正在努力實現我們的淨 0 雄心。我們對范圍 1、2 和 3 排放量的短期、中期和長期量化目標與《巴黎協定》的目標、我們作為碳管理領導者的競爭優勢以及我們在 2050 年之前實現淨零排放的戰略直接一致。

With our journey towards net 0 fully underway, we presented a market update in March on our low-carbon business strategy. We provided details of the market opportunity and our plans to deliver climate and business solutions that leverage our assets and capabilities in carbon management, including CCUS. We are advancing the technological solutions that can deliver large scale and rapid emission reduction throughout our value chain. Additionally, our low-carbon strategy creates value for our existing businesses while, at the same time, helping to accelerate the path to net 0 for ourselves and other leading companies in multiple industries.

隨著我們全面推進淨 0 之旅，我們在 3 月份發布了關於低碳業務戰略的市場更新。我們提供了市場機會的詳細信息以及我們提供氣候和商業解決方案的計劃，這些解決方案利用了我們在碳管理方面的資產和能力，包括 CCUS。我們正在推進能夠在整個價值鏈中實現大規模和快速減排的技術解決方案。此外，我們的低碳戰略為我們現有的業務創造價值，同時幫助我們自己和多個行業的其他領先公司加快實現淨 0 的道路。

We'll now open the call for your questions.

我們現在將打開您的問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Michael Scialla with Stifel.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Michael Scialla。

Rob, you mentioned that you could potentially commence the buyback this quarter. I wanted to see -- as you look beyond this year, based on where the strip prices are right now, can you give any indication of what you're thinking in terms of free cash flow priorities for the longer term?

Rob，您提到您可能會在本季度開始回購。我想看看——當你展望今年以後，根據現在的帶鋼價格，你能說明你在長期自由現金流優先級方面的想法嗎？

Yes, Michael. Thanks for the question. So we haven't provided any guidance for 2023 and beyond at this point. I think what we've indicated in the notes was that as we complete the $5 billion and the $3 billion this year and then apply the balance of any additional cash to the balance sheet, driving that gross debt down into the high teens, that we would anticipate translating -- less of the debt reductions being the priority and more attack the debt on a -- as it comes to maturity basis. And so that would imply, in the 2023 and beyond, a re-shifting of our priorities such that shareholder returns and other priorities will move towards the higher end of the scale.

是的，邁克爾。謝謝你的問題。因此，我們目前還沒有為 2023 年及以後提供任何指導。我認為我們在說明中指出的是，隨著我們今年完成 50 億美元和 30 億美元，然後將任何額外現金的餘額應用到資產負債表中，將總債務推低至十幾歲，我們預計將在到期時進行翻譯-減少債務是優先事項，而更多地攻擊債務。因此，這意味著在 2023 年及以後，我們將重新調整我們的優先事項，以便股東回報和其他優先事項將朝著規模的高端移動。

Okay. Understood. And I know your hedges have rolled off at this point. Do you see any need to protect any of the debt reduction targets or the buyback program? Or I guess over the longer term, if you -- the dividend becomes part of the free cash flow, return to shareholders, any need to reinstitute a hedging program to protect any of those things?

好的。明白了。我知道你的對沖在這一點上已經取消了。您認為有必要保護任何減債目標或回購計劃嗎？或者我想從長遠來看，如果你 - 股息成為自由現金流的一部分，回報給股東，是否需要重新制定對沖計劃來保護這些東西？

No. So Michael, our history as a company has been fairly hedge adverse. Our belief is that our shareholders will ultimately receive and the company will receive the best value for the commodities we produce and sell if we just move with the cycle throughout the entire cycle. We did deviate from that because -- in 2020 due to the amount of maturities we had coming due at the time. Since then, the combination of the trough driving out, the moving out of certain maturities, the paying off and certain reduction of debt that we've talked about and the combination of creating a sustainable business at a much lower price has removed some of that.

不。所以邁克爾，我們作為一家公司的歷史一直是相當不利的。我們的信念是，如果我們在整個週期中順應週期，我們的股東最終將獲得，公司將獲得我們生產和銷售的商品的最佳價值。我們確實偏離了這一點，因為 - 在 2020 年，由於我們當時到期的到期數量。從那時起，我們已經談到了低谷的推出、某些到期日的轉移、債務的償還和一定的減少以及以低得多的價格創建可持續業務的組合，已經消除了一些.

And also, I would say that there's other pieces to it with our chemical business, our midstream business, international business that operate a little differently in some of those price environments, creates other built-in hedges towards that. And so I don't see us going towards hedging to try and attempt to mitigate any of those risks. I mean we have a pretty manageable debt profile now, particularly for the balance of the decade. With the work that we did in the first quarter, we only have 2 years, '25 and '26, that have any maturity towers that exceed $2 billion, and that will certainly be a focus as we move forward. So I don't really see the need for hedges to mitigate any of the risks moving forward.

而且，我想說的是，我們的化學業務、中游業務、國際業務在某些價格環境中的運作方式略有不同，這會產生其他內置的對沖。因此，我不認為我們會採取對沖措施來試圖減輕任何這些風險。我的意思是，我們現在的債務狀況非常可控，尤其是在這十年的剩餘時間裡。根據我們在第一季度所做的工作，我們只有 2 年（25 年和 26 年）的任何成熟度塔超過 20 億美元，這肯定會成為我們前進的重點。因此，我真的不認為需要對沖來減輕未來的任何風險。

And as Vicki outlined on our last call, the dividend approach is meant to be sustainable at low prices. The share repurchases will make that dividend that much cheaper at low prices for us. So I think we're doing the right things to protect from low price environments the business without having to artificially try and protect with hedges.

正如 Vicki 在我們上次電話會議中概述的那樣，股息方法旨在以低價可持續。股票回購將使我們以低價獲得更便宜的股息。因此，我認為我們正在做正確的事情來保護企業免受低價環境的影響，而無需人為地嘗試使用對沖進行保護。

The next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Jeanine Wai。

So maybe we can just start back with -- either Rob or Vicki, on your prepared remarks about what's going on next. So we just wanted to clarify the sequencing of further debt reduction and incremental shareholder returns. It sounds like from your commentary that further gross debt reduction beyond the first $5 billion, that, that will be ahead of additional cash returns beyond the $3 billion buyback and not in parallel. And so I guess reducing gross debt versus net debt, that's pretty different logistically. That's pretty easy given your free cash flow. So do you have any color on how long you think it will take to achieve the high-teens gross debt target given what you see in the market for tenders and what you see in the market for open purchases?

因此，也許我們可以從你準備好的關於接下來發生的事情的評論開始——無論是 Rob 還是 Vicki。所以我們只是想澄清進一步減少債務和增加股東回報的順序。從你的評論看來，在第一個 50 億美元之後進一步減少總債務，這將在超過 30 億美元回購之後的額外現金回報之前，而不是同時進行。所以我猜想減少總債務與淨債務，這在邏輯上是完全不同的。考慮到您的自由現金流，這很容易。那麼，考慮到您在招標市場上看到的情況以及您在公開採購市場上看到的情況，您認為需要多長時間才能實現十幾歲的總債務目標？

Yes. It's a good question, Jeanine. I think that the -- as we laid out last quarter and what I've tried to convey in my remarks is we would complete the $5 billion of debt reduction and then initiate share purchases. I think that based on being at 3.6 where we are today, and as we've demonstrated, we have a combination of the open-market repurchases, tenders, make-whole provisions, et cetera. All that are attractive in the current environment simply because of the rise in treasuries, that achieving that is not going to be a heavy lift in the quarter. And we anticipate that proceeding with share repurchases during the quarter is reasonable to expect during Q2.

是的。這是個好問題，珍妮。我認為——正如我們上個季度所闡述的以及我在講話中試圖傳達的內容是，我們將完成 50 億美元的債務減免，然後開始購買股票。我認為，基於我們今天所處的 3.6，並且正如我們已經證明的那樣，我們結合了公開市場回購、招標、整體準備金等。在當前環境下，所有這些都具有吸引力，僅僅是因為國債的上漲，實現這一目標在本季度不會是一件大事。我們預計，在第二季度進行股票回購是合理的預期。

And so the timing of how long it takes to complete the share repurchases is going to be really dictated by the pace at which we're able to retire and bring those shares in. The stock is obviously very liquid. We have at our disposal lots of different mechanisms to actually acquire the shares. We're going to do it in a way that is most constructive and bring most value to the shareholders in the process.

因此，完成股票回購需要多長時間的時間將真正取決於我們能夠退休並帶入這些股票的速度。股票顯然非常具有流動性。我們可以使用許多不同的機制來實際獲取股票。我們將以最具建設性的方式進行，並在此過程中為股東帶來最大價值。

And then, we do have cash available beyond that, which the current pricing environment would certainly suggest we would have cash well above those 2 pieces of -- $8 billion between those 2 programs. We would resume applying that back to the balance sheet in the process for the balance of the year. And then...

然後，我們確實有可用的現金，目前的定價環境肯定會表明我們的現金將遠高於這兩個項目——這兩個項目之間的 80 億美元。我們將在年度餘額的過程中繼續將其應用到資產負債表中。進而...

Okay. My apologies. I was referring to getting to the high-teens gross debt, but we can take it offline. That's okay.

好的。我很抱歉。我指的是達到十幾歲的總債務，但我們可以讓它離線。沒關係。

Our second question, maybe just on growth. How are you thinking about production growth beyond 2022 given the medium-term gross debt reduction target? Is it kind of like an either/or on growth and paying down debt? Or is -- the price environment, is it constructive enough and the balance sheet is improved enough that you can do both?

我們的第二個問題，也許只是關於增長。鑑於中期總債務削減目標，您如何看待 2022 年以後的生產增長？這有點像增長和償還債務的非此即彼？或者是——價格環境是否足夠具有建設性，資產負債表是否得到了足夠的改善，你可以兩者兼得？

Well, I think that by the time we get to 2023, certainly, our balance sheet, we believe, is going to be very, very healthy versus where we started. So as Rob has mentioned, we expect to have the cash to be able to go beyond the $8 billion this year and every dollar above the $5 billion. That's the $3 billion of -- including the $3 billion of share repurchases in that $8 billion. So any free dollar above that would go to debt reduction. So we do expect to make significant progress with that this year.

好吧，我認為到 2023 年，我們相信我們的資產負債表肯定會非常非常健康，而不是我們開始的時候。所以正如 Rob 所提到的，我們預計今年的現金能夠超過 80 億美元，並且每一美元都超過 50 億美元。那是 30 億美元——包括這 80 億美元中的 30 億美元股票回購。因此，任何高於該水平的自由美元都將用於減債。因此，我們確實希望今年能在這方面取得重大進展。

With respect to production increases for 2023, we are going to increase throughout the rest of this year. And going into 2023, the production that we have is always a result of the programs that we put in place. And so it's going to determine the development programs that are in place by the end of this year, heading into 2023 and what we see as the appropriate pace to deliver the most net present value. And we've said before that, that could be between no growth and 5%. But as we look at the macro towards the end of the year and lay the uncertainties that we see today, we'll be able to finalize that and as you -- as we always do, let you know towards the beginning of next year.

關於 2023 年的產量增長，我們將在今年剩餘時間內增加產量。進入 2023 年，我們所擁有的產品始終是我們實施的計劃的結果。因此，它將確定到今年年底、到 2023 年的發展計劃，以及我們認為實現最大淨現值的適當步伐。我們之前已經說過，這可能在沒有增長到 5% 之間。但是，當我們在年底前審視宏觀環境並確定我們今天看到的不確定性時，我們將能夠最終確定這一點，並且像您一樣 - 像往常一樣，在明年年初讓您知道。

The next question comes from David Deckelbaum with Cowen.

下一個問題來自與 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

Appreciate the time. I wanted to ask an additional question around growth into next year, specifically to the Permian. Your guide obviously implies that you'd be ramping towards almost 600,000 barrel equivalent a day there by the end of '22. Should we think about 16 gross rigs being sufficient to continue growing that profile into 2023?

珍惜時間。我想問一個關於明年增長的額外問題，特別是二疊紀。您的指南顯然暗示，到 22 年底，您的日產量將接近 600,000 桶。我們是否應該認為 16 總鑽機足以繼續增長到 2023 年？

David, this is Richard. Let me start with that. I think the way I'll try to answer that is kind of talk through the cadence of how we entered the year and maybe how that translates to second quarter into the second half of the year. So very pleased with really where we landed in the first quarter. We had a beat for the onshore U.S. and specifically part the Rockies, but also part the Permian. And really, that was on a bit of uncertainty at the time we provided that guidance around final recovery of the weather event and then certainly contemplating some of the supply chain challenges that the industry saw.

大衛，這是理查德。讓我從那開始。我認為我將嘗試回答這個問題的方式是通過我們如何進入今年以及可能如何將其轉化為第二季度到下半年的節奏進行討論。對我們在第一季度取得的成績非常滿意。我們為美國陸上提供了一個節拍，特別是落基山脈的一部分，但也包括二疊紀的一部分。確實，在我們提供有關天氣事件最終恢復的指導時，這有點不確定，然後肯定會考慮行業看到的一些供應鏈挑戰。

And so we are very pleased where we landed in the first quarter. From an activity ramp-up plan, we're able to add the rigs that we started in the fourth quarter into the first quarter. So really, we're at near activity level for the rest of the year. We're at about 17 rigs and 5 frac cores in the first quarter.

因此，我們對第一季度取得的成績感到非常高興。根據活動增加計劃，我們能夠將我們在第四季度開始的鑽機添加到第一季度。所以說真的，我們在今年剩下的時間裡都處於接近活動水平。第一季度，我們大約有 17 個鑽機和 5 個壓裂岩心。

I think importantly, as we think about this, the time to market was on pace. And so we actually finished 2 wells online better in the first quarter and increased our total year outlook by 10. And so that was very important for us to continue to deliver that time to market on pace. But as you think about sort of this inflection of growth going into the second quarter and then the back half of the year, March was 24,000 barrels a day better than February. And I think below that, 62% of the first quarter wells were online in March and really late March. So again, very pleased with that sort of ramp-up and then transition.

我認為重要的是，當我們考慮到這一點時，上市時間正在加快。因此，我們實際上在第一季度更好地完成了 2 口油井，並將我們的年度總展望提高了 10 倍。因此，這對我們繼續按時交付上市時間非常重要。但是，當您考慮到第二季度和下半年的這種增長拐點時，3 月的日產量比 2 月高出 24,000 桶。我認為低於這個數字，第一季度 62% 的油井在 3 月和 3 月下旬在線。再說一次，對這種加速然後過渡非常滿意。

If you go back into last year, it was really -- I think we talked about on the last call a lot of transition from DUCs in the Rockies, which carried a lot of production into what I would consider a much more steady-state drilling and completion cadence really in the second quarter of this year and to the back half of the next year. So we expect to really benefit from that. And so when we think about really the second quarter, we hit this -- add a couple of rigs, as you mentioned, in the Permian, to hit the 16 and really 18 overall or net rigs. Really not a big change because our net rigs stay about the same with the drop of the Rockies in the back half of the year.

如果你回到去年，那真的是——我想我們在上次電話會議上談到了從落基山脈的 DUC 進行的大量過渡，這將大量生產帶入了我認為更穩定的鑽井並且完成節奏確實在今年第二季度和明年下半年。因此，我們希望真正從中受益。因此，當我們真正考慮第二季度時，我們達到了這一點 - 正如您提到的，在二疊紀添加幾個鑽機，以達到 16 個和真正的 18 個整體或淨鑽機。真的不是很大的變化，因為我們的淨鑽機與今年下半年落基山脈的下降大致相同。

But you can start looking at the Delaware. It's a really important area for us to deliver this growth. We have 30 wells that were online in the first quarter. Really, the second quarter, that goes to about 40. And then the back half of the year, that increases to about 50 per quarter. And so feel good about that delivery schedule in the Delaware. Again, going back to last year, we had about 7.5 rigs in the second half of last year in the Delaware. In the first half of this year, we'll be at 12.

但是您可以開始查看特拉華州。對我們來說，實現這種增長是一個非常重要的領域。我們在第一季度有 30 口井在線。真的，第二季度大約是 40 個。然後在今年下半年，這個數字增加到每季度大約 50 個。所以對特拉華州的交貨時間表感覺很好。同樣，回到去年，去年下半年我們在特拉華州擁有大約 7.5 台鑽井平台。今年上半年，我們將在 12 歲。

And so again, as we went from DUCs to drilling, that was really the next stage of the steady-state recovery. And then we'll enter into the full sort of completion, online schedule for the back half of the year. And so the good news is those wells are coming online very well. I think of all the wells -- and I pulled out this morning the Texas Delaware. I think we had 23 wells online in the first quarter that averaged -- they all average over 4,000 barrels a day on a 24-hour IP. So time to market is in line. Production's in line.

同樣，當我們從 DUC 轉向鑽井時，這確實是穩態恢復的下一個階段。然後我們將進入今年下半年的完整在線時間表。所以好消息是這些油井正在順利上線。我想到了所有的井——今天早上我把德克薩斯特拉華州挖出來了。我認為我們在第一季度平均有 23 口井在線——在 24 小時 IP 條件下，它們每天的平均產量都超過 4,000 桶。所以上市時間是一致的。生產線。

And then the final thing I would say as we think about the back half of the year is really protecting that base. And I think part of the Rockies beat, we were real pleased with -- they're about 2% better on base than what we had in the plan. And so being able to protect that base production makes it a lot better. So when you look at time to market, you look at well performance and then you look at sort of our takeaway position and flexibility in the portfolio, we feel really good, continue to work with WES on strong uptime and sort of operability, been able to look beyond 2022.

然後，當我們想到今年下半年時，我要說的最後一件事是真正保護這個基地。而且我認為落基山脈擊敗的一部分，我們真的很滿意——他們的基礎比我們計劃中的要好 2%。因此，能夠保護基礎生產使其變得更好。因此，當您考慮上市時間時，您會看到良好的表現，然後您會看到我們在產品組合中的外賣地位和靈活性，我們感覺非常好，繼續與 WES 合作，以提高正常運行時間和可操作性，能夠展望 2022 年以後。

And so that final component of really derisking what we're trying to do is very important. So I think we -- to kind of land on where you ended your question, I think, we feel really good about where we are this year. I think we've got flexibility in the back half of the year, as Vicki said, to adjust activities and really hit what is the right capital and development program for next year to hit really what the plan needs to be given the macro conditions and what we're trying to do as a company.

因此，真正取消我們正在嘗試做的事情的最後一部分非常重要。所以我認為我們 - 在你結束你的問題的地方，我認為，我們對今年的情況感覺非常好。正如 Vicki 所說，我認為我們在下半年擁有靈活性，可以調整活動並真正實現明年的正確資本和發展計劃，以真正實現計劃需要考慮的宏觀條件和作為一家公司，我們正在努力做的事情。

I got my value's worth with that question. Appreciate it. Robert, just my follow-up would be -- and I'm sorry to belabor the point, but I want to ask another question around the timing of return of capital and debt paydown. If we understand the sequence correct, once you get to another tranche beyond the buybacks where you're looking to get debt down to the teens, would that then preclude any incremental return of capital via buybacks and dividends? Or should we think about it as once you get through that next tranche of debt pay down and get that into the mid-teens, would you be agnostic as long as you're sort of delivering, call it, like 50% of free cash back to shareholders on how quickly you might be triggering a paydown of the preferred notes?

這個問題我得到了我的價值。欣賞它。羅伯特，我的後續行動將是 - 我很抱歉強調這一點，但我想問另一個關於資本回報和債務償還時間的問題。如果我們理解這個順序是正確的，一旦你進入回購之外的另一部分，你希望將債務減少到十幾歲，那是否會排除通過回購和股息的任何增量資本回報？或者我們是否應該考慮一下，一旦你完成了下一筆債務償還並把它變成了十幾歲，你會不會不可知論，只要你有點交付，稱之為，就像 50% 的自由現金向股東反饋您可能會以多快的速度觸發優先票據的支付？

Yes. So the preferred -- so obviously, the preferred -- if you look at the $3 billion of share repurchases and add into that the dividend of $0.13, assuming that those are flat for the course of 4 consecutive quarters -- or 3 consecutive quarters, et cetera, you're still not going to quite be at the level of triggering the $4 per share Berkshire trigger. And so as we've indicated, once we go beyond the $8 billion we've laid out for debt and share repurchases, we would intend to continue reducing debt, again, with the goal being to get that gross debt down into the high teens, where, based on our conversations with the 3 rating agencies, is one of the key waypoints we need to do to achieve investment grade.

是的。因此，如果您查看 30 億美元的股票回購併加上 0.13 美元的股息，假設這些股票在連續 4 個季度（或連續 3 個季度）持平，那麼首選 - 顯然是首選，等等，你仍然不會完全達到觸發每股 4 美元的伯克希爾觸發器的水平。正如我們已經指出的那樣，一旦我們為債務和股票回購準備的 80 億美元，我們將打算繼續減少債務，目標是將債務總額降至十幾歲，根據我們與 3 家評級機構的對話，這是我們實現投資級別所需的關鍵途徑之一。

There are several other metrics they provide to us that we're doing very well on relative to. We certainly know that they're going to -- that a lot of these metrics are in place today based on commodity prices. And so continuing to make that progress will help those metrics further to be constructive even in a more moderate price environment. So that's the reason why we're talking about going back to the debt beyond the share repurchase. We do think it's very important for us to achieve that investment-grade status or get to those investment-grade type metrics. And so I would look at the Berkshire as more -- the potential of Berkshire as more a product of the strategy we're moving this year as a potential, more than being a driver of the strategy this year.

他們為我們提供的其他幾個指標相對於我們做得很好。我們當然知道他們會這樣做——今天很多這些指標都是基於商品價格的。因此，即使在更溫和的價格環境中，繼續取得進展將有助於這些指標進一步具有建設性。這就是為什麼我們要討論在股票回購之外回到債務問題的原因。我們確實認為實現投資級狀態或達到那些投資級類型指標對我們來說非常重要。因此，我認為伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的潛力更多地是我們今年制定的戰略的產物，而不是今年戰略的推動者。

And so if we find ourselves in a constructive commodity price environment, we've achieved those debt targets we've talked about, we've got those investment-grade type metrics and we're having constructive discussions with those agencies about being investment grade, then I think you are in a position, as both Vicki and I laid out in our comments, that you could see a transition for us away from being -- debt being the predominant consumer of cash that we're generating beyond spending for the business and end up being something more targeted towards shareholder returns. And for us, as we discussed, we laid it out before, that the favorite way of returning value to shareholders beyond the dividend is through share repurchases because it does increase the sustainability of the dividend in lower price environments. We also have outstanding warrants. We know that those are sources of dilution. We also issued common shares as part of the acquisition. So it's a prime way for us to reduce it.

因此，如果我們發現自己處於建設性的商品價格環境中，我們已經實現了我們討論過的那些債務目標，我們擁有了那些投資級類型的指標，我們正在與這些機構就投資級進行建設性討論，那麼我認為你處於一個位置，正如 Vicki 和我在我們的評論中所闡述的那樣，你可以看到我們的轉變不再是 - 債務是我們產生的主要現金消費者，而不僅僅是為業務並最終成為更有針對性的股東回報。正如我們之前所討論的，對我們來說，除了股息之外，最喜歡的向股東返還價值的方式是通過股票回購，因為它確實增加了低價環境中股息的可持續性。我們也有未完成的認股權證。我們知道這些是稀釋的來源。作為收購的一部分，我們還發行了普通股。所以這是我們減少它的主要方法。

And if we do make a nominal increase in share repurchases in that 12-month period, it will automatically trigger the provision of targeting the Berkshire. So it's not a choice of do you want to trigger the Berkshire. If we cross that $4 threshold, we will begin the process of the common return and the return -- and the reduction of Berkshire preferred.

如果我們確實在這 12 個月期間名義上增加了股票回購，它將自動觸發針對伯克希爾的規定。所以這不是你想觸發伯克希爾的選擇。如果我們跨過 4 美元的門檻，我們將開始共同回報和回報的過程——以及減少伯克希爾的首選。

And so sitting here today in May, 8 months away from January of 2023, we're not in a position to forecast where our cash flow is going to be in the first quarter or where it's going to be at. But if we can accomplish these goals, it puts us in a position where we have the optionality, similar to the optionality Richard described and discussed about production exiting the year, of being able to be in a position where through additional shareholder returns, we would trigger Berkshire and begin reducing the principal of the Berkshire in the process of doing that.

因此，5 月的今天，距離 2023 年 1 月還有 8 個月的時間，我們無法預測第一季度的現金流將在哪里或將在哪裡。但是，如果我們能夠實現這些目標，它將使我們處於一個可以選擇的位置，類似於理查德描述和討論的關於今年退出生產的選擇，能夠通過額外的股東回報，我們將觸發伯克希爾並在此過程中開始減少伯克希爾的本金。

And so we have some ground to hoe to get there. The commodity price environment is very constructive for us right now. The current -- certainly, the strip prices suggest this is very achievable, and we're doing the right things in the business in terms of driving cost out and keeping costs down in the process. So the combination of that, the chemicals business performance, our portfolio are all setting us up to be successful in that.

所以我們有一些理由去那裡。商品價格環境目前對我們來說非常有建設性。當前 - 當然，帶鋼價格表明這是非常可以實現的，並且我們在降低成本和降低成本方面在業務中做正確的事情。因此，綜合起來，化學品業務表現，我們的投資組合都讓我們在這方面取得成功。

We're not very big on forecasting our cash flow in subsequent quarters or what we're going to do quarters away from this. But I think we've provided you with what our expectations are to do with cash for the balance of the year. And if all those things happen, it puts us in a position where to increase share returns, we would be going after the principal on the Berkshire at that point.

我們對預測我們在隨後幾個季度的現金流量或我們將在幾個季度後做些什麼不是很感興趣。但我認為我們已經為您提供了我們對今年剩餘現金的期望。如果所有這些事情發生，它會讓我們處於增加股票回報的位置，那時我們將追逐伯克希爾的負責人。

The next question comes from Matt Portillo with TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

Maybe just to start out on the DJ. I was hoping you might be able to provide a little bit more context around the permitting process and maybe some of the delays you're seeing. And then I was curious, if you hold 1 rig into 2023, what that might mean from a well count perspective for you all.

也許只是從 DJ 開始。我希望你能提供更多關於許可過程的背景信息，也許還有你看到的一些延誤。然後我很好奇，如果您在 2023 年擁有 1 台鑽井平台，從井數的角度來看，這對你們所有人意味著什麼。

Yes, Matt. I'll let Richard take that.

是的，馬特。我會讓理查德接受。

Matt, so thinking about the DJ this year and then into next year, we feel good about the progress we're actually making with our permits. I think the decision to move the rig to -- allocation to the Delaware is really allowing us to get our development plans in place for 2023. We've got -- I think we mentioned in the prepared comments we've got permits approved to take that 1 rig into next year. We've got another 50 sort of wells that are across a couple of pads that are in the various stages of approval but we feel good about where they're at. And then we have another 200 that are part of a larger sort of program that we're working through the system.

馬特，考慮到今年和明年的 DJ，我們對我們在許可證方面實際取得的進展感到滿意。我認為將鑽井平台轉移到特拉華州的決定確實讓我們能夠制定 2023 年的開發計劃。我們已經 - 我認為我們在準備好的評論中提到，我們已經獲得了批准的許可證將那台鑽機帶入明年。我們還有另外 50 口井，它們分佈在處於不同審批階段的幾個墊子上，但我們對它們所處的位置感覺良好。然後我們還有另外 200 個，它們是我們正在通過系統工作的更大類型計劃的一部分。

I would say we've got a lot of engagement obviously over the last year thinking about this. We've got a lot of improvements in technology and some things that I think will really fit well into the permitting expectations, both locally and at the state level. So really, as we go into next year, we would be capable of really getting to -- back to that 2-rig level and perhaps even more.

我想說的是，在去年考慮到這一點時，我們顯然有很多參與。我們在技術上有很多改進，我認為有些東西真的很適合地方和州一級的許可期望。所以真的，當我們進入明年時，我們將能夠真正達到 - 回到那個 2-rig 水平，甚至可能更多。

And so from a well count perspective, it could look very similar to where we started this year for the DJ in terms of count. But the challenge for us is to obviously develop responsibly, work with the local communities, work with the states, put together the best plan we can. But when we do that, we want to be prepared to develop because those are some very good wells for us within our portfolio.

因此，從計數的角度來看，它可能看起來與我們今年開始的 DJ 計數非常相似。但我們面臨的挑戰顯然是負責任地發展，與當地社區合作，與各州合作，制定我們能做的最好的計劃。但是當我們這樣做時，我們希望為發展做好準備，因為這些對我們來說是我們投資組合中的一些非常好的井。

Perfect. And then a follow-up operational question. Just wanted to see if you might be able to spend a little bit of time talking about the Gulf of Mexico development plans from a tie-in and development perspective over the next couple of years and what that might mean for production. It's obviously a great free cash flow generative asset for the company. So I just was hoping to get a little bit more context around how you're feeling on that front moving forward.

完美的。然後是後續操作問題。只是想看看您是否可以花一點時間從未來幾年的合作和發展角度談論墨西哥灣的發展計劃，以及這對生產可能意味著什麼。對於公司來說，這顯然是一個很好的自由現金流生成資產。所以我只是希望獲得更多關於你在這方面前進的感受的背景信息。

Yes. We still feel really good about what we're doing in the Gulf of Mexico for the next few years. As you know, we've talked recently about the full-field development look at all the structures and the opportunities and high-graded. And then we've already started now working on a subsea -- or subsurface pumping system that will enable us to increase production.

是的。對於未來幾年我們在墨西哥灣所做的事情，我們仍然感覺非常好。如您所知，我們最近談到了全領域發展的所有結構和機會以及高等級。然後我們現在已經開始研究海底或地下泵送系統，這將使我們能夠增加產量。

Also, we're doing some additional work around rescheduling some of our development opportunities based on the exploration success that we've had and that we see. So I think certainly, we have the assets, we have the permitting capability there to continue to maintain that cash flow over the next few years. Beyond that depends on some of the success of the exploration that we will be executing this year and early next year.

此外，我們正在做一些額外的工作，根據我們已經和我們看到的探索成功重新安排我們的一些開發機會。所以我認為，我們當然擁有資產，我們有能力在未來幾年繼續維持現金流。除此之外，還取決於我們將在今年和明年初進行的一些探索的成功。

The next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta。

I had a couple of questions here around supply chain. And Vicki, in early March, you had made the comment that, I guess, caught some press, that the supply chains in the U.S. were relatively in dire shape as it relates to U.S. producers and that would be a constraint on U.S. growth. And a lot of that has proven out, especially around pressure pumping. So can you just talk about your latest views around constraints as it relates to U.S. shale and how you see this evolving from here and tie that into your view of the oil macro?

我有幾個關於供應鏈的問題。 Vicki，在 3 月初，你發表的評論，我猜，引起了一些媒體的關注，美國的供應鏈與美國生產商有關，相對來說處於可怕的狀態，這將限制美國的增長。其中很多已經證明，尤其是在壓力泵方面。那麼，您能否談談您對與美國頁岩油相關的限制的最新看法，以及您如何看待這種情況的演變，並將其與您對石油宏觀的看法聯繫起來？

Yes. And my comment on that was definitely related to those who don't already have their plans in place and didn't already have their materials lined up to purchase. So anybody trying to increase activity at this point, not only in the Permian but also worldwide, would have a very difficult time being able to do that.

是的。我對此的評論肯定與那些尚未制定計劃且尚未排隊購買材料的人有關。因此，任何試圖在這一點上增加活動的人，不僅在二疊紀，而且在世界範圍內，都很難做到這一點。

And with respect to the macro, I really don't think there's been a time since I've been in our industry where inventories and spare capacity are both very low. And then you couple that with the supply chain challenge. So I think that there are a lot of headwinds to increasing production worldwide. And there's never been a time, I don't think either, that companies have been trying as hard as they can to increase production. But we can't destroy value, and it's almost value destruction if you try to accelerate anything now. And some of the longer-term projects just can't get started because of the costs involved. Now for those of us that had plans in place -- and there are other companies that have done this too. But for those of us that had plans in place and had these plans in place early enough, we've been able to mitigate some of the impact of the inflation. And I'll let Richard detail some of that.

就宏觀而言，我真的不認為自從我進入我們的行業以來，庫存和閒置產能都非常低。然後將其與供應鏈挑戰結合起來。因此，我認為在全球範圍內增加產量存在很多不利因素。而且，我也不認為，公司從來沒有像現在這樣努力增加產量。但是我們不能破壞價值，如果你現在試圖加速任何事情，這幾乎是價值破壞。一些較長期的項目由於涉及的成本而無法啟動。現在對於我們這些有計劃的人來說——還有其他公司也這樣做了。但對於我們這些已經制定計劃並及早制定這些計劃的人來說，我們已經能夠減輕通貨膨脹的一些影響。我會讓理查德詳細說明一些。

Sure. I'll just give you a few details from the U.S. onshore perspective, where we had factored this into our plans, like Vicki said. If you remember -- if you go back, really our first quarter message, we had up to 10% contemplated in our upstream capital budget. And we've certainly seen that. We feel good still with our capital outlook because of those plans and sort of what we had factored in for uncertainty within that range.

當然。我將從美國陸上的角度向您提供一些細節，就像 Vicki 所說的那樣，我們已將其納入我們的計劃中。如果你還記得——如果你回到我們第一季度的信息，我們在上游資本預算中考慮了高達 10%。我們當然已經看到了。由於這些計劃以及我們在該範圍內考慮的不確定性，我們對我們的資本前景仍然感覺良好。

But I'd say a couple of things. One, I'll speak quickly on inflation mitigation. But importantly, for us -- most importantly for us, maintaining those operational efficiencies and that time to market, wells online schedule was very critical. And so you'll continue to hear us talk a lot about what we're trying to do to work with our service partners to protect that.

但我想說幾件事。第一，我將快速談談緩解通脹。但重要的是，對我們來說——最重要的是，保持這些運營效率和上市時間，油井在線計劃非常關鍵。因此，您將繼續聽到我們談論我們正在努力與我們的服務合作夥伴合作以保護它的內容。

But from an inflation perspective, I mean, the 2 big ones: oil country tubular goods. We knew going into the year, see that. And we have -- we've had some tubulars over 100%, and that's meaningful. It's about 7% of our capital, and so that has been meaningful.

但從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我的意思是兩大類：石油國家管材。我們知道進入這一年，看看。我們有 - 我們有一些超過 100% 的管狀，這很有意義。這大約是我們資本的 7%，所以這很有意義。

The one that had a little bit more dynamics, I think from an industry perspective in the U.S. and the Permian, was really sand. But felt good. We've worked through that well in the first quarter and good where we're at today. We think about sort of where is price and where is supply and we feel good about our supply situation. We didn't have any disruptions in the first quarter that impacted that wells online schedules. We're able to maintain schedule there.

從美國和二疊紀的行業角度來看，我認為具有更多動態的那個真的是沙子。不過感覺不錯。我們在第一季度做得很好，我們今天的情況也很好。我們考慮價格在哪裡，供應在哪裡，我們對我們的供應情況感覺良好。我們在第一季度沒有發生任何影響該井在線時間表的中斷。我們能夠在那里維持時間表。

Part of that is design. We've been able to work with our development teams to be able to manage really both white and regional sand into our designs based on that supply. The other is our primary sand supplier and the use of Aventine. So again, that facility became very helpful for us in terms of storage and last-mile logistics in terms of what we're doing. And so that was really good.

其中一部分是設計。我們已經能夠與我們的開發團隊合作，以便能夠根據該供應將白色和區域沙子真正管理到我們的設計中。另一個是我們的主要砂供應商和Aventine的使用。因此，就我們正在做的事情而言，該設施在存儲和最後一英里物流方面對我們非常有幫助。所以那真的很好。

The last thing around sand that I think played well for us, and we appreciate, again, our service partners with this, we moved back to a bit more of an integrated strategy with our frac providers. And so that included sand -- being able to supply sand, but it also included trucking and fuel. And so both from a trucking perspective in terms of moving sand to that last mile logistics, we were able to get some help from our frac providers; and then from a use of our Tier 4 dual-fuel perspective, that fuel supply. And so that played out very well for us.

我認為最後一件事對我們來說很好，我們再次感謝我們的服務合作夥伴，我們回到了與我們的壓裂供應商更多的綜合戰略。所以這包括沙子——能夠供應沙子，但它也包括卡車運輸和燃料。因此，無論是從卡車運輸的角度來看，將沙子運送到最後一英里的物流，我們都能從我們的壓裂供應商那裡獲得一些幫助；然後從使用我們的第 4 層雙燃料的角度來看，即燃料供應。所以這對我們來說效果很好。

We feel like we're in a good position. We feel like we're mostly locked in on price for the rest of the year. But that sort of decision and work we did with our service partner played out very well.

我們覺得我們處於一個很好的位置。我們覺得我們在今年剩下的時間里大部分時間都被鎖定在價格上。但是，我們與服務合作夥伴所做的那種決定和工作表現得非常好。

And the follow-up is just around the chem side of the business. Nice to see the guidance bump here in terms of pretax income guidance. Can you just talk a little bit about how you see the trajectory of profitability through the year? It sounds like, if I understood the comment, still a strong year, but there might be some downward pressure on pricing as we think about the year playing out. So any color around that would be great.

後續行動只是圍繞業務的化學方面。很高興在稅前收入指導方面看到這裡的指導。您能否簡單談談您如何看待全年的盈利軌跡？聽起來，如果我理解了評論，那仍然是強勁的一年，但是當我們考慮這一年的發展時，價格可能會有一些下行壓力。所以周圍的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. Sure, Neil. I guess let me answer your question by relaying where we are today. So as you indicated from our comments, the conditions are still very strong in our vinyls and in our caustic soda business. We don't -- from our, first of all, sales, the Russian-Ukraine impact is really the escalation of prices in Europe and in Asia, which is impacting their chlor-alkali operations and chlorine derivative production and leading them to not only reduce operating rates but also increase prices accordingly. That's benefiting both sides of the business because of that.

是的。當然，尼爾。我想讓我通過轉述我們今天的位置來回答你的問題。因此，正如您從我們的評論中指出的那樣，我們的乙烯樹脂和燒鹼業務的條件仍然非常強勁。我們不——首先，從我們的銷售來看，俄羅斯-烏克蘭的影響實際上是歐洲和亞洲價格的上漲，這影響了他們的氯鹼業務和氯衍生物生產，導致他們不僅降低開工率，但也會相應地提高價格。正因為如此，這對業務的雙方都有利。

And so -- but not only that, domestically, the business remains very strong on the vinyl side of the business. And so we would estimate year-to-date March -- operating rates through March, these lag a bit but were reported by industry at 81.6% year-to-date, which is not as high as you might think it might be. But there's been a lot of controls in that due to the outages that occurred in the industry during the first quarter, which is pretty typical. But domestic demand in the first quarter was up about 10% versus last year. And in fact, domestic demand in March for the U.S. was the highest single month for domestic demand in over a decade, just reflecting that pent-up demand for construction.

所以——但不僅如此，在國內，乙烯基業務的業務仍然非常強勁。因此，我們將估計年初至今的 3 月 - 到 3 月的開工率，這些有點滯後，但行業報告的年初至今為 81.6%，這並不像你想像的那麼高。但由於第一季度行業發生停電，這方面有很多控制措施，這是非常典型的。但第一季度的國內需求與去年相比增長了約 10%。事實上，美國 3 月份的國內需求是 10 多年來最高的單月國內需求，這恰恰反映了被壓抑的建築需求。

And despite what is relatively, based on historical value, high prices for PVC, the demand is still there, and it's being pulled right through the building products. So that's great for the business. Exports are about 7.5% higher than they were this time last -- through March last year, reflecting the fact that there's opportunities to sell PVC internationally. In some ways, the PVC is exporting U.S. gas and ethylene overseas and the places that are being impacted by the higher prices or availability. So that's all -- it's very constructive for the business.

儘管基於歷史價值，PVC 的價格相對較高，但需求仍然存在，並且直接通過建築產品拉動。所以這對企業來說很好。截至去年 3 月，出口量比上一次高出約 7.5%，這反映了在國際上銷售 PVC 的機會。在某些方面，PVC 正在將美國的天然氣和乙烯出口到海外以及受到更高價格或可用性影響的地方。所以這就是全部 - 這對業務非常有建設性。

And then we see that demand being very resilient certainly through the first half of the year, a favorable housing sector, et cetera, and the export business being open for as long as it's available simply because of the U.S. advantage on gas, ethylene and energy, et cetera, versus rest of the world. So PVC feels constructive. Obviously, interest rates raising can impact housing starts, et cetera, and demand on that business. And so that's one of those uncertainties. We're not seeing anything that would suggest it's falling off, bringing fractures in the strength of PVC.

然後我們看到需求在今年上半年肯定會非常有彈性，有利的房地產行業等等，而且出口業務只要可以開放就可以開放，這僅僅是因為美國在天然氣、乙烯和能源方面的優勢，等等，與世界其他地方相比。所以 PVC 感覺很有建設性。顯然，加息會影響房屋開工等，以及對該業務的需求。這就是不確定性之一。我們沒有看到任何跡象表明它正在脫落，從而導致 PVC 強度斷裂。

We're sitting here in the month of May and watching the news, like everyone else is, regarding the Fed getting more hawkish towards interest rates can have a corollary impact on housing starts and demand at some point. And so we're just a little bit less clear on the trajectory in the second half of the year. So you see a little more cautious outlook for the business on that side.

我們在 5 月份坐在這裡，像其他人一樣觀看有關美聯儲對利率變得更加鷹派的消息，這可能會在某個時候對房屋開工和需求產生必然影響。因此，我們對下半年的發展軌跡還不太清楚。因此，您對這方面的業務前景更加謹慎。

On the caustic side of things, it's been a -- we don't get operating rates anymore as an industry because of the amount of people that participate in it, and so -- but we would estimate rates are somewhere in the low 80s. But all producers had scheduled and unscheduled downtime, the majors, during the first part of the year so far. There's been several downstream consumers that have had issues and production issues. And we're obviously dealing with some railroad logistics issues as an industry and other industries right now.

從苛刻的角度來看，這是一個 - 由於參與其中的人數眾多，我們不再作為一個行業獲得開工率，因此 - 但我們估計開工率在 80 年代的某個地方。但到目前為止，所有生產商都在今年上半年安排了和計劃外的停機時間，主要是生產商。有幾個下游消費者遇到了問題和生產問題。我們現在顯然正在處理一些作為一個行業和其他行業的鐵路物流問題。

And so -- but the core sectors, just like home construction, durable goods, transport, et cetera, they're all very strong right now. The improvement in travel and customer spending is still there. And obviously, just like in the PVC business, we're taking advantage of the fact that with the energy advantage in the U.S. versus the rest of the world right now from a pricing standpoint, despite being high here, it's nowhere near as high as it is in Europe and Asia, which opens up opportunities and will lead some consumers of our products to produce products here versus overseas and then export those products. And so again, similar to the PVC business, the caustic business in the second half of the year -- I think it's very strong through the first half of the year. It's just a little less clear trajectory in the second half of the year only because of those overhanging potential impacts to the economy and associated GDP, which typically drives a big part of the business.

所以——但核心行業，就像房屋建築、耐用品、運輸等，現在都非常強大。旅行和客戶支出的改善仍然存在。顯然，就像在 PVC 業務中一樣，我們正在利用這樣一個事實，即從定價的角度來看，美國目前與世界其他地區相比具有能源優勢，儘管這裡的價格很高，但遠不及它在歐洲和亞洲，這開闢了機會，並將導致我們產品的一些消費者在國內生產產品而不是在海外生產產品，然後出口這些產品。再說一遍，類似於 PVC 業務，下半年的苛性鹼業務——我認為上半年非常強勁。只是因為那些對經濟和相關 GDP 的潛在影響，這通常會推動業務的很大一部分，所以下半年的軌跡不太清晰。

And so I wouldn't say that we're pessimistic towards the second half of the year. If you look at the guidance range we gave and look at what we're doing for the second quarter and look at Slide 33, which had a historical view of chemicals performance, the second quarter guidance alone would have been a great year by many standards for many years prior to '21 and '22. And then if we look at the second half of the year, even if we reach our guidance midyear, you're talking ranges, it will also be close to $1 billion on the high end of our range. Certainly, if things are more constructive, we're on the high end of the range. And I think that's the feeling that we have right now.

所以我不會說我們對下半年感到悲觀。如果您查看我們提供的指導範圍並查看我們在第二季度所做的工作並查看幻燈片 33，其中包含對化學品性能的歷史看法，從許多標準來看，僅第二季度的指導就將是一個偉大的一年在 '21 和 '22 之前的許多年。然後，如果我們看一下下半年，即使我們在年中達到我們的指導，你所說的範圍，也將接近我們範圍的高端 10 億美元。當然，如果事情更具建設性，我們就處於該範圍的高端。我認為這就是我們現在的感覺。

We'll get more clarity. We're really in the zone right now where we're trying to understand what might be the impacts of rising interest rates in the business. But all the demand factors today are still very constructive for supply/demand. And the longer that supply/demand balance remains tight on the 2 sides of the business, the higher we're going to go towards the high end of that guidance, and we'll potentially revise that guidance at some point midyear obviously, once we see how the second quarter turns out. But our guidance that we provided for the year beyond the Q2 guidance just takes into consideration that uncertainty we have in the second half of the year just because of what's going on not only in the U.S. but globally in the economy.

我們會更清楚。我們現在真的處於這個區域，我們正試圖了解利率上升對企業可能產生的影響。但是今天的所有需求因素對供需仍然非常有建設性。而且，供需平衡在業務的兩個方面保持緊張的時間越長，我們就越接近該指導的高端，我們可能會在年中的某個時候修改該指導，一旦我們看看第二季度的結果如何。但我們為第二季度指引之後的一年提供的指引只是考慮到了我們在下半年的不確定性，這不僅因為美國而且全球經濟都在發生這種情況。

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Appreciate you taking my questions, everybody. Rob, I hate to do this, but I'm going to go back to the capital structure of the company. And I want to ask 2 questions related to the preferred shares. I want to nibble on them some, just a little bit, if I may.

謝謝大家回答我的問題。 Rob，我討厭這樣做，但我要回到公司的資本結構。我想問兩個與優先股相關的問題。如果可以的話，我想吃點它們，一點點。

So my first question is you talked about absolute net debt targets. You don't talk about the capital structure, including the prefs. So if I include the prefs as debt, for example, one could argue that once you get back to investment grade, your cost of debt is going to be a substantial potential offset to the premium you need to pay for the prefs, if you chose to raise debt by the prefs. See what I mean? 8% money on the prefs, let's say 4% or 5% money on the debt. Even with a 10% premium, that would make sense. Why would you not do that?

所以我的第一個問題是你談到了絕對淨債務目標。你不談論資本結構，包括首選項。因此，例如，如果我將優先權作為債務包括在內，有人可能會爭辯說，一旦你回到投資級別，你的債務成本將大大潛在地抵消你需要為優先權支付的溢價，如果你選擇由省長籌集債務。明白了嗎？ 8% 的錢，比方說 4% 或 5% 的債務。即使有 10% 的溢價，這也是有道理的。你為什麼不這樣做？

Why would we not retire the pref? Is that what you're saying, Doug? I didn't catch the middle.

為什麼我們不退休pref？這就是你的意思嗎，道格？我沒有抓住中間。

Yes. Sorry, yes. Why is that not an option? Because it seems to me that the premium is worth paying if you can reduce the cost of overall money, which is what you would do at 4% or 5% debt.

是的。對不起，是的。為什麼這不是一個選擇？因為在我看來，如果你能降低整體資金成本，那麼保費是值得支付的，這就是你在 4% 或 5% 的債務下會做的事情。

Oh, go out and borrow to actually fund the retirement of the Berkshire.

哦，出去借錢為伯克希爾的退休提供資金。

Once you get -- once you hit investment grade, yes.

一旦你得到 - 一旦你達到投資等級，是的。

Yes. The challenge with it is, is this is not just the premium. It's also the return to the shareholders, too. And so it's not just considering the premium on the Berkshire of the 10% through 2029. It's also that there's got to be an equivalent value returned to the shareholders at the same time. And so versus retiring the debt, like what we're going to do the balance of this year, where every dollar that goes to debt reduces our gross debt, going into -- when we retire the Berkshire, it will reduce shares by an equivalent amount but will also reduce -- possibly split -- bifurcate it into the 2. And so $1, half of it goes towards shareholders and half of it goes towards the Berkshire.

是的。它的挑戰是，這不僅僅是溢價。這也是對股東的回報。因此，這不僅僅是考慮到 2029 年伯克希爾 10% 的溢價。同時還必須向股東返還等值的價值。因此，與償還債務相比，就像我們將在今年的餘額中做的那樣，每一美元用於債務都會減少我們的總債務，當我們退休伯克希爾哈撒韋公司時，它將減少等量的股票金額，但也會減少——可能會分裂——將其分成 2 美元。所以 1 美元，其中一半歸股東，一半歸伯克希爾。

And so I think once we achieve the ability -- if we start retiring the Berkshire, we're certainly going to want to deviate and put -- whatever cash we're applying to debt reduction will be going towards the Berkshire, which, the way that our maturity is laid out today, is not very difficult for us to do. I mean we don't have any maturities of any meaningful size until the second half of 2024 at this point. Even that isn't very large in scale. And so we have the ability to allocate all the cash that we have available to us, if we want to, towards shareholders and Berkshire return, if we're doing that at that point, without having to retire the debt because we don't have any maturities over that period of time.

所以我認為，一旦我們實現了能力——如果我們開始讓伯克希爾退休，我們肯定會想要偏離並投入——我們用於減少債務的任何現金都將流向伯克希爾，其中，我們今天成熟的方式，對我們來說並不是很難做到的。我的意思是，在 2024 年下半年之前，我們沒有任何有意義的到期期限。即使規模不是很大。因此，如果我們願意，我們有能力將我們可用的所有現金分配給股東和伯克希爾的回報，如果我們當時這樣做，而不必償還債務，因為我們沒有在該期間有任何到期日。

Okay. Well, I apologize for asking. I just wanted to understand if it was a crazy idea or if it was something you would actually consider.

好的。好吧，我很抱歉問這個問題。我只是想了解這是否是一個瘋狂的想法，或者它是否是你真正會考慮的事情。

My second question is even nuttier, if you don't mind me going down this route. Berkshire obviously has now a vested interest in a better share price for all these reasons. They've built up a very large position in your stock. And 8% money on the prefs is obviously still pretty expensive. Is there any consideration, likelihood discussion or anything else you might want to share with us that could ultimately see you swap out of the prefs on favorable terms for ordinary equity with Berkshire given that they have already built a very large position? Just curious if that was a consideration.

我的第二個問題更瘋狂，如果你不介意我走這條路的話。顯然，由於所有這些原因，伯克希爾哈撒韋公司現在對更好的股價有著既得利益。他們在你的股票中建立了一個非常大的位置。而且 8% 的費用顯然還是相當昂貴的。鑑於伯克希爾已經建立了一個非常大的頭寸，您是否有任何考慮、可能性討論或任何其他您可能想與我們分享的內容，最終可以看到您以優惠的條件與伯克希爾交換普通股的優先權？只是好奇這是否是一個考慮因素。

Doug, we don't share the discussions that we have with other shareholders, as you know. But I can tell you that we always consider ways to add value to our shareholders, and we'll continue to do that. So we really can't disclose any private conversations with other shareholders.

道格，如你所知，我們不會與其他股東分享我們的討論。但我可以告訴你，我們一直在考慮為股東增加價值的方法，我們將繼續這樣做。所以我們真的不能透露與其他股東的任何私人談話。

The next question comes from Phil Gresh with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Gresh。

With respect to capital spending, in the past, you've talked about sustaining CapEx of $3.2 billion at $40 WTI. And obviously, we're in a much higher environment and probably for longer. So I'm curious if you'd have another way to think about that in particular, the CapEx you think would be required to sustain this 2022 exit rate you're talking about that should be somewhere around 1.2 million barrels a day. And I'm looking at this in the context of your CapEx guide for the year would seem to imply we're exit rating maybe in the high 4s on CapEx, but would just be interested in any color there.

關於資本支出，您過去曾談到以 40 美元 WTI 維持 32 億美元的資本支出。顯然，我們處於一個更高的環境中，並且可能會持續更長時間。所以我很好奇你是否有另一種方式來特別考慮這一點，你認為維持你所說的 2022 年退出率所需的資本支出應該是每天 120 萬桶左右。我在你今年資本支出指南的背景下看待這一點似乎暗示我們的退出評級可能在資本支出的高 4s 中，但只會對那裡的任何顏色感興趣。

Yes. This year, we did have some things that we needed to catch up on. As you know, we were at $2.9 billion last year, and that didn't sustain some of our lower-decline assets. So we are -- that's part of the reason that we have a little more OpEx in Permian, that is to restore some CO2 to some of our CO2 floods and also to do some workovers to get some wells back online.

是的。今年，我們確實有一些需要趕上的東西。如您所知，我們去年的資產為 29 億美元，這並不能支撐我們的一些下降幅度較低的資產。所以我們是 - 這就是我們在二疊紀有更多運營支出的部分原因，即為我們的一些二氧化碳洪水恢復一些二氧化碳，並進行一些修井以使一些井重新上線。

So as we're going toward -- forward and looking at what's the optimum level of capital for the -- these assets to deliver the most value, we are taking into consideration what should we do, where should we allocate capital, so even the assets that in a sustainability scenario would be lower capital. It's just that the lower-decline assets take a little longer to catch up, but then they don't decline as quickly. So if I'm understanding your question, to get us to where we would continually be at a higher rate, which should happen going into next year, I think that we'll be where we need to be to have every -- the capital into every asset that we have optimized.

因此，當我們朝著——向前看，為這些資產提供最大價值的最佳資本水平是多少時，我們正在考慮我們應該做什麼，我們應該在哪里分配資本，所以即使是在可持續發展情景中的資產將是較低的資本。只是下跌幅度較低的資產需要更長的時間才能趕上，但隨後下跌的速度不會那麼快。所以如果我理解你的問題，為了讓我們達到我們將繼續以更高的速度達到的地方，這應該會在明年發生，我認為我們將成為我們需要擁有的地方——資本到我們優化的每一項資產中。

So just to clarify, if we're exit rating, call it, at $4.8 billion or something like that in the fourth quarter on CapEx, would you be saying then that there's maybe still some catch-up spend that was embedded in that? Or is that actually the sustaining capital rate?

因此，只是為了澄清一下，如果我們是退出評級，那麼在第四季度的資本支出中將其稱為 48 億美元或類似水平，那麼您是否會說其中可能還有一些追趕性支出？或者這實際上是維持資本利率？

I would say that, that is probably a little higher than the sustaining rate. But it's the rate that we feel is appropriate on a go-forward basis to optimize the development within each of those portfolios. Our sustaining capital is still at that $3.2 billion in a $40 environment. So we have the increase in prices that comes with not being in the $40 environment, I should say.

我會說，這可能比維持率高一點。但這是我們認為在向前發展的基礎上優化每個投資組合內的發展的合適速度。在 40 美元的環境中，我們的維持資本仍為 32 億美元。因此，我應該說，我們的價格上漲是因為不在 40 美元的環境中。

We have -- on the waterfall, we show you a little deflation as costs go back down to a cycle that looks more like $40 than where we are today. So there's an uplift in costs associated with that. And then there's the $250 million that we put into the CapEx for this year that's more related to inflation, albeit we're just trying to offset $50 million of that. But that's also dollars that are not going into delivering incremental oil. It's just to pay the costs due to inflation. So it is at the rate that -- going into next year, would be at a rate that should deliver year-over-year a little bit of an increase in production.

我們有 - 在瀑布上，我們向您展示了一點通縮，因為成本回落到一個看起來比我們今天更像 40 美元的周期。因此，與此相關的成本會增加。然後是我們今年投入資本支出的 2.5 億美元，這與通貨膨脹更相關，儘管我們只是想抵消其中的 5000 萬美元。但這也是不會用於提供增量石油的美元。只是為了支付通貨膨脹造成的成本。因此，進入明年的速度應該會導致產量同比略有增長。

And the last questioner will be Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

最後一位提問者是豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Maybe first one is for Rob. I know that it's too early, that you guys haven't designed what is your program going to look like for next year. But can you tell us roughly what percent of your work may already have some kind of fixed price contract for 2023? And maybe some give and take then on how you see that program like in higher inflation or if inflation will continue pushing higher. Some kind of -- maybe any insight can help.

也許第一個是給羅布的。我知道現在還為時過早，你們還沒有設計出明年的程序會是什麼樣子。但是，您能大致告訴我們，您的工作中有多少可能已經簽訂了 2023 年的某種固定價格合同？也許有些人會在你如何看待該計劃的情況下給予和接受，比如通貨膨脹率較高，或者通貨膨脹率是否會繼續推高。某種——也許任何見解都可以提供幫助。

And second question is we're quite -- the midstream full year guidance seems to suggest second half, you're going to, say, go back to a loss. Is that just being conservative or there's some identified items to make you believe the second half of the result is going to be much worse than what we've seen in the second quarter or what you are guiding to?

第二個問題是我們相當 - 中期全年指導似乎暗示下半年，你會說，回到虧損。這只是保守還是有一些確定的項目讓你相信下半年的結果會比我們在第二季度看到的或者你所指導的要糟糕得多？

Paul, this is Richard. Maybe I'll start with just a little bit of the sort of U.S. contract and talk around it in terms of inflation. We can start there to kind of give you a view of how it's going into the back half of this year and into 2023.

保羅，這是理查德。也許我會從一點點美國合同開始，然後從通貨膨脹的角度來討論它。我們可以從那裡開始，讓您了解今年下半年和 2023 年的情況。

I think from -- some of the critical components like rigs and frac core, we have flexibility going into the back half of the year we have some contracts that do not extend into 2023. So again, as we sort of land on what the final 2023 plan is, we've got some flexibility there. We also want to make sure we've got the highest performing crews and rigs that we can.

我認為，從鑽機和壓裂核心等一些關鍵組件來看，我們在今年下半年有靈活性，我們有一些合同不會延長到 2023 年。所以，當我們再次確定最終結果時2023 年的計劃是，我們在那裡有一些靈活性。我們還想確保我們擁有性能最高的工作人員和鑽井平台。

Again, from an OCTG and sort of sand supply, I think one of the real advantages we have beyond what I mentioned earlier is that we're operating most of our activity within 5 core development plans. So we've got this year about 80% to 90% of our activity within 5 areas and would expect that to continue into next year. And that -- those designs being locked in gives us the advantage of being able to schedule out things like sand delivery and tubular. So both of those we'll order out 6 months in advance. We'll be able to secure the pricing that we can. And those represent really the biggest uncertainties in terms of inflation going into next year.

同樣，從 OCTG 和某種沙子供應來看，我認為除了我之前提到的之外，我們真正的優勢之一是我們在 5 個核心開發計劃內開展了大部分活動。因此，今年我們在 5 個領域內開展了大約 80% 到 90% 的活動，預計這種情況將持續到明年。而且——那些被鎖定的設計給了我們能夠安排諸如沙子輸送和管狀之類的事情的優勢。因此，我們將提前 6 個月訂購這兩種產品。我們將能夠確保定價。就明年的通脹而言，這些確實是最大的不確定性。

The rest, we obviously work contracts globally. So work with Ken, whether it's Gulf of Mexico or internationally, to be able to work with our service providers as best we can to sort of do that global view in terms of our need. So we feel good, again, where we stand this year in terms of supply and price, and we'll be looking in the back half of this year to get that firmed up into next year.

其餘的，我們顯然在全球範圍內工作。因此，無論是在墨西哥灣還是在國際範圍內，與 Ken 合作，以便能夠與我們的服務提供商合作，盡我們所能根據我們的需求來實現全球視野。因此，我們再次感覺良好，我們今年在供應和價格方面所處的位置，我們將在今年下半年尋找到明年才能鞏固這一點。

I would say, Paul, on the midstream business, because of all the uncertainties in the world and there are a lot of those, we've taken a very conservative approach on our forecast for pricing of sulfur and NGLs mainly. And with that, I want to say I very much appreciate all the calls today, and I want to thank our employees for their commitment and their exceptional performance that's been able to help us resume our delivery of return on capital employed and of capital to shareholders. So have a good day. Thank you.

我想說，保羅，在中游業務上，由於世界上有很多不確定性，我們對硫和 NGL 定價的預測主要採取了非常保守的方法。有了這個，我想說我非常感謝今天所有的電話，我要感謝我們的員工的承諾和他們的卓越表現，這能夠幫助我們恢復我們的資本回報率和股東的資本回報.所以祝你有美好的一天。謝謝你。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。