西方石油 (OXY) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to of the Occidental Petroleum Corporation Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎參加西方石油公司 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Alvarez, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Jeff Alvarez)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Laura.

謝謝你，勞拉。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental Petroleum's Fourth Quarter 2018 Conference Call.

大家早安，感謝您參加西方石油公司 2018 年第四季電話會議。

On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Cedric Burgher, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Ken Dillon, President, International Oil and Gas Operations; and BJ Hebert, President of OxyChem.

今天與我們通話的是總裁兼執行長 Vicki Hollub； Cedric Burgher，資深副總裁兼財務長； Ken Dillon，國際石油與天然氣業務總裁；和 BJ Hebert，OxyChem 總裁。

In just a moment, I will turn the call over to Vicki.

稍後我會將電話轉給 Vicki。

As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議包含聯邦證券法含義內的某些預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements as more fully described in our cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements on Slide 2. Our earnings press release, the investor relations supplemental schedules and our non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations and the conference call presentation slides can be downloaded off our website at www.oxy.com.

這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，我們在幻燈片2 上有關前瞻性陳述的警告聲明中對此進行了更全面的描述。的收益新聞稿、投資者關係補充資料時間表、我們的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 調節以及電話會議簡報幻燈片可從我們的網站 www.oxy.com 下載。

I'll now turn the call over to Vicki.

我現在將電話轉給 Vicki。

Vicki, please go ahead.

維琪，請繼續。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。

Today, I'll begin our fourth quarter results, followed by our 2018 achievements, a plan for the year ahead and an overview of the benefits of our integrated business model.

今天，我將首先介紹我們的第四季度業績，然後是我們 2018 年的成就、未來一年的計劃以及我們綜合業務模式的優勢概述。

The fourth quarter of 2018 wrapped up a successful year for Oxy both financially and operationally.

2018 年第四季為 Oxy 帶來了財務和營運上成功的一年。

We returned $900 million to shareholders in the quarter through a combination of the dividend and share repurchases.

本季我們透過股利和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還 9 億美元。

Our continued focus on increasing returns for our shareholders was achieved due to outstanding performance from all 3 of our businesses in a changing market condition.

我們持續專注於增加股東回報，這得益於我們所有三項業務在不斷變化的市場條件下的出色表現。

Despite WTI falling below $43 a barrel in the quarter, we posted core earnings per share of $1.22, and generated the highest semiannual level of operating cash flow since 2014, making the second half of 2018 our strongest 6-month period since our portfolio optimization.

儘管WTI 本季跌破每桶43 美元，但我們公佈的每股核心收益為1.22 美元，並產生了自2014 年以來最高的半年度經營現金流水平，使2018 年下半年成為自我們優化投資組合以來最強勁的6 個月時期。

Permian cash operating cost was the lowest this decade driven by the long-term high-return investments that we're making, such as in facilities and infrastructure.

在我們正在進行的長期高回報投資（例如設施和基礎設施）的推動下，二疊紀現金營運成本達到十年來最低。

We operate our assets with a full lifecycle view.

我們以完整的生命週期視圖來運作我們的資產。

Our investments will continue to provide payback in the form of lower cost as our production base expands.

隨著我們生產基地的擴大，我們的投資將繼續以降低成本的形式帶來回報。

OxyChem and our midstream business both achieved record fourth quarter earnings as a result of our integrated business model, which enables us to take full advantage of market conditions, such as delivering higher realizations from our Permian take away position.

由於我們的一體化業務模式，OxyChem 和我們的中游業務均實現了創紀錄的第四季度收益，這使我們能夠充分利用市場條件，例如從我們的二疊紀外賣業務中實現更高的變現。

In 2018, we grew cash flow to a level that exceeded both capital expenditures and our dividend, a key achievement we have been working toward since completing our portfolio optimization.

2018 年，我們的現金流成長至超過資本支出和股息的水平，這是自完成投資組合優化以來我們一直致力於實現的關鍵成就。

Organic cash flow growth was driven by prioritizing the allocation of capital to opportunities that generate the highest full cycle returns.

有機現金流成長是透過優先將資本配置到產生最高全週期回報的機會來推動的。

We are pursuing cash flow growth with 2 key objectives in mind: first and foremost, to generate a high return on capital; and second, to return an increasing level of excess cash to shareholders.

我們追求現金流成長有兩個關鍵目標：首先也是最重要的是產生高資本報酬率；其次，向股東返還越來越多的超額現金。

In 2018, we returned more than $3.6 billion to shareholders through our sector-leading dividend, and $1.3 billion of share repurchases under our $2 billion-plus share repurchase program.

2018 年，我們透過業界領先的股利以及超過 20 億美元的股票回購計畫回購了 13 億美元的股票，向股東返還了超過 36 億美元。

We intend to complete the remainder of the share repurchase program in 2019.

我們打算在 2019 年完成剩餘的股票回購計畫。

We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through a balanced combination of dividends and share repurchases and we've done for a long time.

我們仍然致力於透過股利和股票回購的平衡組合向股東返還資本，而且我們長期以來一直這樣做。

Since 2002, we've increased our dividend each consecutive year, and we've returned $33 billion to our shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases.

自 2002 年以來，我們連續每年增加股息，並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 330 億美元。

That's about 70% of our current market capitalization.

這大約是我們目前市值的 70%。

Almost 50% of this was returned in the last 5 years, a time period which included one of the worst downturns our industry has ever experienced.

其中近 50% 是在過去 5 年中返還的，這段時期是我們行業經歷過的最嚴重的衰退之一。

Through this downturn, we also maintained our strong balance sheet and A-level credit ratings.

在這次經濟低迷時期，我們也維持了強勁的資產負債表和 A 級信用評級。

Our focus on investing in our high-quality assets delivered a 2018 return on capital employed of 14%, and cash return on capital employed at 27%, both significantly higher than 2017 and upper quartile performance versus our performance peer group.

我們專注於投資優質資產，2018 年的已動用資本回報率為 14%，已動用資本現金回報率為 27%，均顯著高於 2017 年，且與同行業業績相比處於上四分位數。

These achievements reflect our commitment to our value proposition, the strength of our integrated business model and the high quality of our assets.

這些成就反映了我們對價值主張的承諾、綜合業務模式的優勢以及資產的高品質。

We made notable productivity and efficiency gains across all 3 business segments in 2018.

2018 年，我們在所有 3 個業務部門的生產力和效率方面均取得了顯著提升。

The investments that OxyChem and our midstream business completed in recent years paid off in 2018 as both segments optimized cash flow and delivered record earnings.

OxyChem 和我們的中游業務近年來完成的投資在 2018 年得到了回報，兩個部門都優化了現金流並創造了創紀錄的收益。

Our Permian business continued to outperform, with Permian Resources delivering an impressive 52% production growth, and Permian EOR exceeding cost reduction targets for the acquired Seminole CO2 field.

我們的二疊紀業務繼續表現出色，二疊紀資源公司的產量增加了 52%，令人印象深刻，二疊紀 EOR 超過了收購的塞米諾爾二氧化碳油田的成本削減目標。

Our international business generated $1.4 billion in free cash flow in 2018, and has enormous potential to grow cash flow going forward.

2018 年，我們的國際業務產生了 14 億美元的自由現金流，未來現金流成長潛力巨大。

On our last call, Ken provided details of our new international opportunities.

在我們最後一次通話中，肯提供了我們新的國際機會的詳細資訊。

Now we're pleased to have been awarded a new block in Abu Dhabi that Ken will describe in a few minutes.

現在，我們很高興獲得了阿布達比的一個新街區，肯將在幾分鐘內對此進行描述。

This new Abu Dhabi block, along with 6 in Colombia and 3 in Oman make 10 new blocks added in the last year.

阿布達比的這個新區塊，加上哥倫比亞的 6 個區塊和阿曼的 3 個區塊，使得去年新增了 10 個區塊。

These new international opportunities will add significant high-return low-decline development inventory to our portfolio.

這些新的國際機會將為我們的投資組合增加大量高回報、低衰退的開發庫存。

At the same time, it's worth highlighting that these will require only a modest investment in the short term.

同時，值得強調的是，這些在短期內只需要適度的投資。

One of our key competitive advantages is our ability to develop assets in a way that efficiently maximizes all production recovery and generate significant cash flow growth over the next decades.

我們的主要競爭優勢之一是我們能夠以有效最大化所有生產恢復並在未來幾十年產生顯著現金流成長的方式開發資產。

For the last 3 years, we've achieved all-in reserve replacement ratios exceeding 160% companywide.

過去 3 年，我們全公司的總準備金替代率超過 160%。

The 2018 reserve replacement ratio of 164% is due to the excellent technical work our teams have completed in enhancing subsurface characterization across our portfolio and building customized development plans.

2018 年儲量替代率為 164%，這要歸功於我們的團隊在增強整個投資組合的地下特徵和製定客製化開發計畫方面完成的出色技術工作。

Our momentum has continued into 2019 as our business segments continue to invest in high-return opportunities.

隨著我們的業務部門繼續投資高回報機會，我們的勢頭持續到 2019 年。

Last month, we discussed various capital budgets through 3 different pricing scenarios, but we've decided to limit our full capital spend in 2019 to $4.5 billion.

上個月，我們透過 3 種不同的定價方案討論了各種資本預算，但我們決定將 2019 年的全部資本支出限制在 45 億美元。

This represents a $500 million or a full 10% reduction from 2018.

這意味著比 2018 年減少了 5 億美元，即減少了 10%。

By maximizing efficiencies, we are reducing spending to adjust to a lower oil price environment.

透過最大限度地提高效率，我們正在減少支出以適應較低的油價環境。

As activity is adjusted to meet full year capital spending of $4.5 billion, we expect spending to be higher in the first half of the year.

由於對活動進行了調整以滿足全年 45 億美元的資本支出，我們預計今年上半年的支出將會更高。

In creating our capital budget to realize the highest returns, Permian Resources shale production will become a larger portion of our total oil and gas production.

在製定資本預算以實現最高回報的過程中，二疊紀資源頁岩產量將占我們石油和天然氣總產量的更大比例。

We expect this will increase our oil and gas base decline to 20% in 2019.

我們預計這將使 2019 年我們的石油和天然氣基數下降至 20%。

As we continue to invest in the Permian, we will advance our appraisal in the short cycle low decline development opportunities in our new international blocks to prepare them for growth.

隨著我們繼續投資二疊紀盆地，我們將推進對新國際區塊的短週期低衰退開發機會的評估，為它們的成長做好準備。

Our 2019 capital program is dominated by short-cycle investments, the majority of which will pay back within 2 years at $50 WTI.

我們 2019 年的資本計畫以短週期投資為主，其中大部分將在 2 年內以 50 美元的 WTI 回報。

We will continue to be conservative and if necessary, within 6 months, we can reduce capital spending to sustainable levels, meaning that Oxy remains flexible throughout the commodity cycle.

我們將繼續保守，如有必要，在 6 個月內，我們可以將資本支出減少到可持續水平，這意味著 Oxy 在整個商品週期中保持靈活性。

We will grow oil and gas production by 9% to 11% in 2019 to replace the cash flow from Qatar in 2020, but our long-term annual growth rate forecast remains at 5% to 8-plus-percent.

我們將在2019年將石油和天然氣產量成長9%至11%，以取代2020年來自卡達的現金流，但我們的長期年增長率預測仍維持在5%至8%以上。

Cash flow growth is an inherent driver in generating a high return of capital and a higher return on capital.

現金流成長是產生高資本報酬率和更高資本報酬率的內在驅動力。

Our 2022 roadmap details the projects we will prioritize and execute over the next few years in order to grow cash flow from operations to $9 billion in 2022.

我們的 2022 年路線圖詳細介紹了我們將在未來幾年優先考慮和執行的項目，以便在 2022 年將營運現金流增加到 90 億美元。

While Permian Resources will continue to be the main driver of growth through 2022, our international business will also grow in terms of both cash flow and production.

雖然二疊紀資源公司將繼續成為 2022 年成長的主要動力，但我們的國際業務在現金流和產量方面也將成長。

In addition to having many high return short cycle opportunities, we also continue to benefit from the stable sustainable cash flow generated by OxyChem, Midstream, and Dolphin.

除了擁有許多高回報的短週期機會外，我們還繼續受益於 OxyChem、Midstream 和 Dolphin 產生的穩定永續現金流。

Even with a lower activity level and a significantly reduced capital budget for 2019, we still remain on track to achieve the low end of the 2022 cash flow range of $9 billion to $9.5 billion that we communicated in our third quarter call.

即使 2019 年活動水準較低且資本預算大幅減少，我們仍有望實現我們在第三季電話會議中傳達的 2022 年現金流範圍的低端 90 億至 95 億美元。

As you will have noticed based on expectations for the WTI spend, we updated our Brent price assumption for 2020 onwards, and this will have minimal impact based on our production sharing contracts.

正如您所注意到的，根據對 WTI 支出的預期，我們更新了 2020 年以後的布倫特價格假設，根據我們的生產分成合同，這將產生最小的影響。

To be conservative, we modeled OxyChem and Midstream cash flow at the low end of the previous range, and our projection of $9 billion in cash flow by 2022 does not include significant upside from several additional projects that we're currently evaluating.

為保守起見，我們以先前範圍的低端對 OxyChem 和 Midstream 現金流進行建模，並且我們對 2022 年現金流量 90 億美元的預測不包括我們目前正在評估的幾個其他項目的顯著增長。

We'll provide updates on these projects as we advance.

隨著我們的進展，我們將提供這些項目的最新資訊。

This morning, Cedric will take you through our financial results and updated guidance, and Jeff will detail the continuous improvements we are creating in the Permian.

今天早上，塞德里克將向您介紹我們的財務表現和更新的指導，傑夫將詳細介紹我們在二疊紀創造的持續改進。

Ken will then provide an update on our new opportunities in our international business.

然後，肯將介紹我們國際業務中的新機會的最新情況。

I'll now hand the call over to Cedric.

我現在將把電話轉給塞德里克。

Thanks, Vicki.

謝謝，維基。

As Vicki highlighted, we are pleased to have continued repurchasing shares, allowing us to return $900 million of cash to shareholders during the fourth quarter, and over $3.6 billion in 2018, including our dividend.

正如 Vicki 所強調的，我們很高興繼續回購股票，這使我們能夠在第四季度向股東返還 9 億美元的現金，並在 2018 年向股東返還超過 36 億美元的現金，其中包括股息。

On Slide 10, I'd like to start with our earnings, which improved across all segments year-over-year.

在投影片 10 上，我想從我們的收益開始，所有細分市場的收益均較去年同期有所改善。

For the fourth quarter, we had core earnings of $1.22 per diluted share and reported earnings of $0.93 per diluted share.

第四季度，我們稀釋後每股核心收益為 1.22 美元，報告稀釋後每股收益為 0.93 美元。

The difference between reported and core income is attributable to an impairment charge of $220 million, which was driven by lower oil prices.

報告收入與核心收入之間的差異歸因於油價下跌導致的 2.2 億美元減損費用。

Earnings also included a net tax benefit of $224 million, which significantly decreased our fourth quarter effective tax rate, and it consisted of $100 million for additional EOR tax credits and tax credits related to U.S. export sales; $99 million for releasing a foreign withholding tax accrual; and $25 million for changes related to the 2017 Tax Reform Act.

收益還包括 2.24 億美元的淨稅收優惠，這顯著降低了我們第四季度的有效稅率，其中包括 1 億美元的額外 EOR 稅收抵免和與美國出口銷售相關的稅收抵免； 9,900萬美元用於釋放外國預扣稅應計額； 2500 萬美元用於與 2017 年稅收改革法案相關的變更。

Oil and gas core income decreased in the fourth quarter compared to the prior quarter, reflecting lower oil and NGL prices as realized prices declined by 10% and 23% respectively from the third quarter.

第四季石油和天然氣核心收入較上一季下降，反映出石油和液化天然氣價格下降，實現價格較第三季分別下降了 10% 和 23%。

Fourth quarter oil and gas results included a non-cash mark-to-market change related to our CO2 purchase contracts as well as higher operating and DD&A expenses in Qatar as a result of the ISND contract expiration later this year.

第四季度石油和天然氣業績包括與我們的二氧化碳購買合約相關的非現金按市價變化，以及由於今年稍後 ISND 合約到期而導致卡達營運和 DD&A 費用增加。

Total fourth quarter reported production of 700,000 BOEs per day was above the midpoint of our guidance due to the continued best-in-class execution and well productivity in the Permian Resources, which resulted in 250,000 BOEs per day during the quarter at the top end of the guidance range, and represents an exit-to-exit increase of over 57%.

由於二疊紀資源持續一流的執行力和良好的生產力，第四季度報告的每天 700,000 個 BOE 的總產量高於我們指導的中點，這使得該季度每天的產量達到 250,000 個 BOE。且退出與退出之間的增幅超過57%。

Total international production of 290,000 BOE per day was slightly lower than guidance, primarily due to the oil price adjustment in our production sharing contracts in Oman.

國際總產量為每天 290,000 桶油當量，略低於指導值，這主要是由於我們在阿曼的生產分成合約中的石油價格調整。

The contracts utilize a pricing mechanism with a 2-month delay, which resulted in a higher realized price and lower production for Oman in the fourth quarter.

這些合約採用延遲兩個月的定價機制，導致阿曼第四季的實際價格較高，產量較低。

Fourth quarter international production was also impacted by weather and accelerated maintenance.

第四季國際產量也受到天氣和加速維護的影響。

OxyChem continues to perform strongly, reporting its highest fourth quarter pretax income ever of $223 million, above guidance of $220 million.

OxyChem 繼續表現強勁，第四季度稅前收入達到有史以來最高的 2.23 億美元，高於預期的 2.2 億美元。

Earnings decreased from the third quarter, primarily due to expected seasonality and end-market demand for chlorovinyl products as well as lower realized caustic soda pricing and higher natural gas and ethylene costs.

利潤較第三季度下降，主要是由於預期的季節性和終端市場對氯乙烯基產品的需求以及燒鹼實際定價較低以及天然氣和乙烯成本較高。

Our midstream business reported record core fourth quarter earnings of $670 million, which exceeded the high end of our guidance due to positive mark-to-market movements and a higher-than-expected Midland to MEH differential.

我們的中游業務第四季度核心盈利達到創紀錄的 6.7 億美元，由於積極的市價變動以及 Midland 與 MEH 的差異高於預期，該盈利超過了我們指導的上限。

Compared to the prior quarter, fourth quarter earnings reflected lower marketing margins due to a decrease in the Midland-to-MEH differential from $16.67 to $15.31 and lower pipeline income from the sale of the Centurion Pipeline in the prior quarter.

與上一季相比，第四季的收益反映出行銷利潤率下降，因為米德蘭與 MEH 的差價從 16.67 美元降至 15.31 美元，以及上一季出售 Centurion 管道的管道收入減少。

Fourth quarter revenue and cost of sales were both grossed up by $340 million due to the accounting treatment of certain Midstream contracts where we've used our excess take-away capacity from the Permian to purchase and resale third-party barrels.

由於對某些中游合約的會計處理，我們利用二疊紀盆地的多餘外賣能力來購買和轉售第三方桶，第四季度的收入和銷售成本總計增加了 3.4 億美元。

The third quarter gross up amount was $327 million.

第三季總金額為 3.27 億美元。

Operating cash flow before working capital for the fourth quarter was $1.9 billion, which covered our capital expenditures of $1.3 billion and dividends of $594 million.

第四季不計營運資本的營運現金流為 19 億美元，其中包括 13 億美元的資本支出和 5.94 億美元的股利。

Our total year capital spend came in just under our planned spend amount of $5 billion.

我們的年度總資本支出略低於計畫支出 50 億美元。

Slide 11 details our guidance for the first quarter and full year 2019.

投影片 11 詳細介紹了我們對 2019 年第一季和全年的指導。

As Vicki mentioned, we will pursue high-return reinvestment opportunities in 2019 that will be funded by a total capital budget of $4.5 billion, which will result in annual production growth of 9% to 11%.

正如 Vicki 所提到的，我們將在 2019 年尋求高回報的再投資機會，總資本預算將達到 45 億美元，這將導致年產量增加 9% 至 11%。

We are reducing capital spending year-over-year, and due to technical and operational advances, we are still able to deliver significant cash flow growth.

我們逐年減少資本支出，由於技術和營運的進步，我們仍然能夠實現顯著的現金流成長。

As we advance into 2019, our balance sheet remains strong and we have ample liquidity available to complete our share repurchase program.

隨著我們進入 2019 年，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，我們有充足的流動性來完成我們的股票回購計劃。

We ended 2018 with over $3 billion in cash, and still hold PAGP units with a market value of approximately $700 million.

2018 年底，我們擁有超過 30 億美元的現金，並且仍然持有市值約 7 億美元的 PAGP 單位。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

我現在將電話轉給傑夫。

Thank you, Cedric.

謝謝你，塞德里克。

2018 was an outstanding year for our combined Permian business, as we improve the value of our conventional and unconventional assets through our value-based development approach.

2018 年對於我們合併後的二疊紀業務來說是出色的一年，因為我們透過基於價值的開發方法提高了傳統和非常規資產的價值。

We're able to add high margin barrels and generate great returns on our investments.

我們能夠增加高利潤桶並產生豐厚的投資回報。

We replaced 216% of our production with new reserves through industry-leading performance and successful appraisal.

透過業界領先的業績和成功的評估，我們的新儲量取代了216%的產量。

Combined total year production for Permian Resources and Permian EOR grew 77,000 BOEs per day compared to 2017 and exceeded 400,000 BOEs per day in the fourth quarter.

與 2017 年相比，二疊紀資源公司和二疊紀 EOR 的年總產量每天增加 77,000 桶油當量，第四季超過每天 40 萬桶油當量。

We lowered Permian operating cost 9% by utilizing advanced data analytics on artificial lift, implementing new water recycling technology and improving maintenance efficiency across the Permian.

透過利用人工舉升的先進數據分析、實施新的水回收技術以及提高整個二疊紀的維護效率，我們將二疊紀的營運成本降低了 9%。

Permian Resources has a simple model that I love, called leave no doubt, which refers to our relentless pursuit of generating the best returns in the industry.

Permian Resources 有一個我喜歡的簡單模式，叫做“毫無疑問”，它指的是我們對產生行業最佳回報的不懈追求。

In 2018, we made tremendous progress toward achieving this principle as we increased our total production 52% and exceeded our initial 2018 guidance by 12,000 BOEs per day.

2018 年，我們在實現這項原則方面取得了巨大進展，總產量增加了 52%，比 2018 年最初的指導方針每天產量增加了 12,000 個 BOE。

Our subsurface characterization improvements have driven breakthroughs at an accelerated pace.

我們的地下表徵改進加速了突破。

By integrating advancements in geoscience with our 12,000 square miles of 3D seismic and subsurface characterization models, we're rapidly achieving step-change improvements in well design and placement.

透過將地球科學的進步與我們 12,000 平方英里的 3D 地震和地下特徵模型相結合，我們正在快速實現油井設計和佈局方面的重大改進。

In 2018, we improved our average 6-month cumulative production by 25% compared to 2017.

2018 年，我們的平均 6 個月累積產量比 2017 年增加了 25%。

Over the last 12 months, Oxy has delivered 40% of the top 50 horizontal wells in the basin, which is the most for any operator while only drilling 5% of the total wells over the same time period.

在過去 12 個月中，Oxy 交付了該盆地前 50 口水平井中的 40%，這是所有營運商中最多的，而同期僅鑽探了總井數的 5%。

On the capital efficiency front, our operational improvement initiatives continue to drive efficiency, compressed time-to-market and lower full-cycle cost.

在資本效率方面，我們的營運改善措施持續提高效率，壓縮上市時間並降低全週期成本。

In 2018, we increased our feet drilled per day by 19%, and we drilled record 15 day 10,000-foot wells measured rig release to rig release in both our New Mexico and Texas Delaware areas.

2018 年，我們每天鑽探的英尺數增加了 19%，在新墨西哥州和德克薩斯州特拉華州地區，我們鑽探了創紀錄的 15 天 10,000 英尺井，測量了鑽機釋放。

On the base management front, our investments in operability and surveillance are transforming how we optimize our base, as demonstrated by our 10% reduction in operating cost per barrel in 2018.

在基地管理方面，我們在可操作性和監控方面的投資正在改變我們優化基地的方式，2018 年每桶營運成本降低 10% 就證明了這一點。

In addition to efficiency improvements, we're also achieving major advancements in artificial lift optimization and well enhancements to lower the base decline rate.

除了效率提高之外，我們還在人工舉升優化和油井增強方面取得了重大進展，以降低基礎遞減率。

The rate of progress in Permian Resources is extraordinary, and will lead us to exceed 600,000 BOEs per day for this business alone within the next 5 years.

Permian Resources 的進展速度非常驚人，在未來 5 年內，光是這項業務的日產量就將超過 60 萬個 BOE。

Our Permian EOR business also had a great year.

我們的二疊紀 EOR 業務也度過了美好的一年。

We continued the integration of the Seminole-San Andres unit and have now lowered OpEx by $8 per BOE since we took over operations in September of 2017.

我們繼續整合塞米諾爾-聖安德烈斯工廠，自 2017 年 9 月接手營運以來，現在已將每桶油當量的營運支出降低了 8 美元。

We start injection on new grass roots CO2 flood at the West Sundown unit, which started injection 4 months earlier than planned, and will achieve a development cost of under $6 per BOE.

我們開始在 West Sundown 裝置注入新的草根二氧化碳驅，該裝置比計劃提前 4 個月開始注入，並將實現每桶油當量低於 6 美元的開發成本。

Permian EOR continues to provide low decline cash flow and high returns for our shareholders.

二疊紀 EOR 繼續為我們的股東提供低遞減的現金流和高回報。

We're excited about the critical role it will play in our long-term business sustainability strategy, especially as we leverage our position and expertise to reduce our carbon footprint.

我們對它將在我們的長期業務永續發展策略中發揮的關鍵作用感到興奮，特別是當我們利用我們的地位和專業知識來減少我們的碳足跡時。

Slide 14 provides more detail on the 2019 capital program.

幻燈片 14 提供了有關 2019 年資本計劃的更多細節。

Permian Resources will comprise $2.6 billion of our $4.5 billion total capital budget in 2019.

2019 年，二疊紀資源將占我們 45 億美元總資本預算的 26 億美元。

We will utilize approximately 12 operated rigs and 1 to 2 net non-operated rigs, with development focus on our core areas.

我們將利用大約 12 個營運鑽機和 1 至 2 個非營運鑽機，重點開發我們的核心領域。

We plan to operate 6 to 7 rigs in New Mexico, which will primarily develop the high return Bone Springs and Wolfcamp formations.

我們計劃在新墨西哥州營運 6 至 7 個鑽孔機，主要開發高回報的 Bone Springs 和 Wolfcamp 地層。

We will continue development in areas proved to be highly prolific in 2018, and plan to allocate activity to the Tanks area of Greater Sand Dunes in the second half of the year.

我們將繼續在2018年被證明高產量的區域進行開發，並計劃在下半年將活動分配到大沙丘的Tanks區域。

The appraisal results from Tanks area have been outstanding.

坦克領域的評估結果非常出色。

The 3 wells online in 2018, averaging over 3,000 BOEs per day per well for 30 days.

2018年上線3口井，30天平均每口井每天超過3000個BOE。

In Texas Delaware, we'll operate 5 to 6 rigs, primarily developing the Wolfcamp A and Hoban formations.

在德州特拉華州，我們將營運 5 至 6 個鑽孔機，主要開發 Wolfcamp A 和 Hoban 地層。

The tapered well design we implemented in the second half of 2018 has significantly improved the returns of our new wells, and we expect to see continued improvement through 2019.

我們在 2018 年下半年實施的錐形井設計顯著提高了新井的回報，我們預計到 2019 年將持續改善。

Overall, our capital program for 2019 will generate significant value for our shareholders and result in 30% to 35% annual production growth.

總體而言，我們 2019 年的資本計畫將為股東創造巨大價值，並實現 30% 至 35% 的年產量成長。

We will also be advancing the commercialization of unconventional EOR development and expect to share more information on results later in the year.

我們還將推進非常規 EOR 開發的商業化，並預計在今年稍後分享更多有關結果的資訊。

As you can see, 2018 was an exceptional year for our Permian businesses.

如您所見，2018 年對我們的二疊紀業務來說是不平凡的一年。

We set well productivity records, significantly lowered operating cost, and realized breakthroughs with data analytics and subsurface characterization that improves the returns from our assets.

我們創造了良好的生產力記錄，顯著降低了營運成本，並在數據分析和地下表徵方面實現了突破，從而提高了我們的資產回報。

2018 may seem like a hard year to beat, but the organization is more energized and capable than ever, and I'm sure we will leave no doubt in 2019.

2018 年似乎是難以克服的一年，但該組織比以往任何時候都更有活力、更有能力，我相信 2019 年我們將毫無疑問。

I'll now turn the call over to Ken to discuss international.

我現在將電話轉給肯，討論國際問題。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。

As Vicki and Cedric mentioned, our 2019 capital plan focuses on investing in projects that grow cash flow and generate the highest returns.

正如 Vicki 和 Cedric 所提到的，我們 2019 年的資本計畫重點投資於能夠增加現金流並產生最高回報的項目。

Today, we're pleased to share the details of Onshore Block 3, which is a new 35-year concession in Abu Dhabi.

今天，我們很高興與大家分享陸上區塊 3 的詳細信息，這是阿布扎比新的 35 年特許權。

We feel honored to expand our relationship with ADNOC and the first award of its kind onshore.

我們很榮幸能夠擴大與阿布達比國家石油公司的關係，並獲得第一個陸上此類獎項。

With Block 3, as well as the new onshore blocks landed in Oman and Colombia, we feel we have established a clear pathway for Oxy to grow sustainable cash flow from our low-decline long life international assets.

透過 3 號區塊以及在阿曼和哥倫比亞登陸的新陸上區塊，我們認為我們已經為 Oxy 建立了一條明確的途徑，可以從我們低衰退的長壽命國際資產中增加可持續的現金流。

We certainly appreciate the recognition as a partner of choice.

我們當然感謝您對我們作為首選合作夥伴的認可。

As shown on Slide 16, Block 3 covers an area of approximately 1.5 million acres, which is slightly greater than the total of our net unconventional acreage in the Permian.

如投影片 16 所示，第 3 區塊佔地約 150 萬英畝，略大於我們在二疊紀非常規淨面積的總和。

We have high expectations for this block given its location between the prolific oilfields of Abu Dhabi and Oman.

鑑於該區塊位於阿布達比和阿曼多產油田之間，我們對該區塊抱有很高的期望。

It's also adjacent to our Al Hosn Gas project.

它也毗鄰我們的 Al Hosn Gas 項目。

As I mentioned on the last call, our regional geological knowledge is best in class and continues to develop.

正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們的區域地質知識是同類中最好的，並且仍在不斷發展。

We utilize that experience in preparing our initial stacked pay prospect inventory for Block 3. In 2019, our capital spend in Block 3 will be modest.

我們利用這些經驗為區塊 3 準備初始的堆疊薪酬前景庫存。

The initial scope of work involves participating in the state-of-the-art 3D seismic acquisition and interpretation.

最初的工作範圍涉及參與最先進的 3D 地震採集和解釋。

Our plan is to initiate drilling in 2019.

我們的計劃是在 2019 年開始鑽探。

Expanding our footprint in the UAE in such a meaningful way, especially through the 35-year concession, has allowed us to enhance our long-term international portfolio at an attractive price of entry.

以如此有意義的方式擴大我們在阿聯酋的足跡，特別是透過 35 年的特許權，使我們能夠以極具吸引力的進入價格增強我們的長期國際投資組合。

Additionally, in Abu Dhabi, we continue to look at cost-effective ways to debottleneck the Al Hosn Gas facilities.

此外，在阿布達比，我們繼續尋找具有成本效益的方法來消除 Al Hosn Gas 設施的瓶頸。

In Colombia, in partnership with EcoPetrol, we have signed an agreement to develop Blocks 39 and 52.

在哥倫比亞，我們與 EcoPetrol 合作簽署了開發 39 號和 52 號區塊的協議。

These blocks are adjacent to our giant Ca�o Lim�n field, and near where we had successful discoveries this year.

這些區塊毗鄰我們巨大的 Ca�o Lim�n 油田，也靠近我們今年成功發現的油田。

In addition, we farmed into 4 Blocks in the highly prospective Putumayo Basin, where we have regional knowledge of the reservoirs.

此外，我們還在前景廣闊的普圖馬約盆地 (Putumayo Basin) 進行了 4 個區塊的開採，我們對那裡的水庫擁有區域知識。

With these blocks, our net acreage in Colombia has risen to approximately 1 million acres with a low cost of entry.

憑藉這些區塊，我們在哥倫比亞的淨面積已增加到約 100 萬英畝，且進入成本較低。

Like our other recent awards, capital will be small in 2019.

與我們最近頒發的其他獎項一樣，2019 年的資金規模較小。

In terms of performance, our Oxy International Drilling teams continue to improve performance, and since 2014 have saved approximately $650 million for Oxy and our partners.

在績效方面，我們的 Oxy International Drilling 團隊不斷提高績效，自 2014 年以來已為 Oxy 和我們的合作夥伴節省了約 6.5 億美元。

As well as improving efficiency, cost, and time-to-market the international safety performance was again world-class.

除了提高效率、成本和上市時間之外，國際安全效能再次達到世界級水準。

Our international exploration programs in 2017 added 47 million BOE of resources and bettered that in 2018 by adding 94 million BOE of resources while at the same time opening up new plays.

2017年，我們的國際勘探計畫增加了4,700萬桶油當量的資源，2018年增加了9,400萬桶油當量的資源，同時開闢了新的區塊。

Finding costs were around $0.76 per BOE.

每個 BOE 的查找成本約為 0.76 美元。

In closing, we expect 2019 to be an exciting year for Oxy internationally.

最後，我們預期 2019 年對 Oxy 在國際上來說將是令人興奮的一年。

As the exploration programs in our new blocks progress, we will continue to provide updates on significant developments.

隨著新區塊勘探計劃的進展，我們將繼續提供重大進展的最新資訊。

As you can see, the work we are executing closely aligns with Oxy's key technical competencies, our returns focus, and our true partnership.

正如您所看到的，我們正在執行的工作與 Oxy 的關鍵技術能力、我們的回報重點以及我們真正的合作夥伴關係密切相關。

I'll now turn the call back to Vicki.

我現在將電話轉回給 Vicki。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Ken.

謝謝你，肯。

Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to emphasize that we believe the strongest oil and gas companies of the future will be those that have a shareholder-focused value proposition, a structure and a sustainability to withstand the oil price cycles, while also maintaining a social license to operate in the world in general and operate in a low carbon world.

在我們進行問答之前，我想強調的是，我們相信未來最強大的石油和天然氣公司將是那些擁有以股東為中心的價值主張、能夠承受油價週期的結構和可持續性的公司，同時也維持在全球範圍內運作並在低碳世界中運作的社會許可。

Our value proposition will continue to deliver a growing dividend and upper quartile, or maybe best-in-class returns to our shareholders while also growing oil and gas production 5% to 8-plus-percent annually.

我們的價值主張將繼續為我們的股東帶來不斷增長的股息和上四分位數，或者可能是一流的回報，同時石油和天然氣產量每年增長 5% 至 8% 以上。

Unlike many companies in our sector, we delivered this through one of the longest downturns our industry has faced.

與我們行業中的許多公司不同，我們在行業面臨的最長的衰退之一中實現了這一目標。

Our company is primarily an upstream oil and gas company with integrated midstream and chemicals business, so that adds significant value and provide important support during low oil price cycles.

我們公司主要是一家上游石油天然氣公司，整合中游和化學品業務，因此在低油價週期期間可以增加重要的價值並提供重要的支援。

The diversification of our upstream oil and gas business also provides strength in periods of low oil prices, along with substantial upside in higher oil price cycles.

我們上游石油和天然氣業務的多元化也在低油價時期提供了優勢，並在高油價週期中提供了大幅上行空間。

This upside is made possible by our short-cycle high-return unconventional assets in the Permian, along with the new conventional opportunities that we just picked up in Oman, Colombia and Abu Dhabi.

這種上行空間得益於我們在二疊紀的短週期高回報非常規資產，以及我們剛剛在阿曼、哥倫比亞和阿布達比獲得的新常規機會。

Our strength in a low price environment is bolstered by our very low decline enhance oil recovery projects in the Permian, Oman and Colombia.

我們在二疊紀、阿曼和哥倫比亞的極低遞減提高石油採收率計畫增強了我們在低價環境中的實力。

I'm specifically referring to our CO2 and water floods in the Permian, our water floods in northern Oman, our steam flood in Mukhaizna, which happens to be one of the largest steam floods in the world, and our new TECA steam flood in Colombia.

我特別指的是我們在二疊紀的二氧化碳和水驅、我們在阿曼北部的水驅、我們在穆海茲納的蒸汽驅（這恰好是世界上最大的蒸汽驅之一），以及我們在哥倫比亞的新TECA 蒸汽驅動。

Our production sharing contracts in our low decline gas projects in Dolphin and Al Hosn also provides significant support in low oil price cycles.

我們在 Dolphin 和 Al Hosn 的低遞減天然氣專案中的生產共享合約也為低油價週期提供了重要支援。

I believe there is no other oil company in the oil and gas industry that has this blend of high-quality focused oil and gas projects that provide this diversity.

我相信，石油和天然氣行業中沒有其他石油公司擁有如此多樣化的高品質、專注的石油和天然氣項目。

This is why we can continue to deliver our value proposition.

這就是為什麼我們可以繼續提供我們的價值主張。

Not only do we have a great blend of assets with the addition of our new blocks, we have an incredible inventory of development opportunities.

我們不僅擁有豐富的資產組合和新的區塊，而且還擁有大量的開發機會。

Over the past few years, we've replaced our production with new reserves at a ratio of greater than 160%.

過去幾年，我們新儲量替代產量的比例超過160%。

With the inventory we now have, we expect to achieve that replacement ratio for the foreseeable future.

憑藉我們現在擁有的庫存，我們預計在可預見的未來實現這一替代率。

This ensures the sustainability of our value proposition.

這確保了我們價值主張的可持續性。

With respect to our social license to operate, our commitment is to manage our business in a way that improves the quality of life for our employees, contractors and the communities where we operate while also minimizing the potential impacts of our operations.

關於我們的社會營運許可，我們的承諾是以提高員工、承包商和我們營運所在社區的生活品質的方式管理我們的業務，同時最大限度地減少我們營運的潛在影響。

Our employees are the lifeblood of our company.

我們的員工是我們公司的命脈。

They are the drivers of our success and, as such, we're committed to their continued development and to helping them address the challenges of work-life balance.

他們是我們成功的驅動力，因此，我們致力於他們的持續發展並幫助他們應對工作與生活平衡的挑戰。

Many people refer to this as human capital management, but I don't.

許多人稱之為人力資本管理，但我不這麼認為。

These are our people, the Oxy family, not just capital.

這些是我們的人民，Oxy家族，而不僅僅是資本。

It's personal to us.

這對我們來說是個人的。

We want their lives to be the best that they can be at home and at work.

我們希望他們在家庭和工作中都能過上最好的生活。

This will enable them to be engaged and ready to deliver the best possible value to our shareholders as they have done in a significant way during this downturn.

這將使他們能夠積極參與並準備好為我們的股東提供盡可能最大的價值，就像他們在這次經濟低迷時期所做的那樣。

And in the areas where we operate, we want to ensure that we have a positive impact and can find ways that improve the quality of life in the community.

在我們開展業務的地區，我們希望確保產生正面影響，並找到改善社區生活品質的方法。

Lastly but equally as important is our commitment to use our unique skills and assets to lead carbon capture use and sequestration, or CCUS, starting in the United States, and ultimately, in other parts of the world.

最後但同樣重要的是，我們承諾利用我們獨特的技能和資產來引領碳捕獲、利用和封存（CCUS），從美國開始，最終在世界其他地區。

Along with many other initiatives, CCUS is necessary to limit the impact of climate change.

與許多其他措施一樣，CCUS 對於限制氣候變遷的影響是必要的。

With our CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery expertise and projects in the Permian, we believe we can lead the effort to capture current CO2 emissions from industrial sources to use in sequester in our Permian reservoirs.

憑藉我們在二疊紀的二氧化碳強化石油採收率專業知識和項目，我們相信我們可以帶頭努力捕獲當前工業來源的二氧化碳排放，並將其用於二疊紀儲層的封存。

This will benefit the climate and our shareholders.

這將使氣候和我們的股東受益。

As we have previously mentioned, we now have a low carbon team whose mission is to seek opportunities to innovatively reduce our carbon footprint in ways that also improve our operations and thus are expandable and sustainable.

正如我們之前提到的，我們現在擁有一支低碳團隊，其使命是尋找機會以創新方式減少我們的碳足跡，同時改善我們的運營，從而實現可擴展和可持續。

Our comprehensive strategy addresses all the factors that make a company great and sustainable.

我們的全面策略涵蓋了使公司偉大和可持續發展的所有因素。

I believe this has built us into a next generation company that is uniquely positioned to excel in our changing world.

我相信，這已將我們打造成為一家具有獨特優勢的下一代公司，能夠在不斷變化的世界中脫穎而出。

We'll now open it up to your questions.

現在我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德（Roger Read）。

I just wanted to kind of come at it from the capital discipline side of, obviously, the presentation you put out in January highlighted that you would live within cash flow given oil price.

我只是想從資本紀律的角度來看待這個問題，顯然，你在一月份發表的演講強調，考慮到油價，你將生活在現金流範圍內。

Good to see the higher growth rate, 9 to 11 versus the 10 to 8. But just really my question is along the lines of trying to think about how Oxy and maybe the broader E&P space fits here with what you're trying to do versus maybe what we're seeing out of the super majors in terms of increasing activity in the Permian.

很高興看到更高的成長率，9比11與10比8。專業中看到了二疊紀活動的增加。

And then we haven't seen the magnitude of drop-off, I think, we would've expected out of some of the private companies.

然後我們還沒有看到一些私人公司的下降幅度，我認為，這是我們所期望的。

So as you think about capital returns, capital discipline, but then maybe a little bit of the risk being squeezed between these other 2 components, how do you kind of square that circle up?

因此，當你考慮資本回報、資本紀律，但也許還有一點風險被擠壓在其他兩個組成部分之間時，你如何解決這個問題？

And what do you see as the driver for how you want to run the company?

您認為公司營運方式的驅動力是什麼？

The driver for us is to maximize returns.

我們的驅動力是最大化回報。

And so the way we put together our development programs is we don't try to design for peak rate production.

因此，我們整合開發計劃的方式是，我們不會嘗試針對尖峰產量進行設計。

We really try to design all of our development programs and our comprehensive development of the Permian with the synergies between EOR and Resources.

我們確實嘗試透過 EOR 和資源之間的協同效應來設計我們所有的開發計劃和二疊紀的綜合開發。

We try to design that in a way that creates the highest difference in value.

我們嘗試以創造最大價值差異的方式進行設計。

And I can tell you, we're not trying to outpace the majors, we're trying to outperform the majors.

我可以告訴你，我們不是試圖超越專業人士，而是試圖超越專業人士。

And I think that we're clearly doing that in the Permian at this time.

我認為我們目前正在二疊紀顯然正在這樣做。

I think it's -- from a standpoint of our programs versus theirs, we're doing a lot more with the rigs that we employ today than many other companies are with almost double the rigs that we have.

我認為，從我們的專案與他們的專案的角度來看，我們今天使用的鑽孔機比許多其他公司使用的鑽孔機做了更多的工作，幾乎是我們擁有的鑽孔機的兩倍。

And our focuses is more on making sure that every dollar we invest creates more value.

我們的重點更多是確保我們投資的每一美元都能創造更多價值。

And so we're trying to really work the side of maximizing recovery from the reservoir and minimizing our cost.

因此，我們正在努力最大限度地提高油藏採收率並最大限度地降低成本。

So it's not a race for us to outpace them, and we have teams that have built our infrastructure and our position and our relationship in a way that grow as they will, they will not impact our operations.

因此，這不是一場超越他們的競賽，我們的團隊已經建立了我們的基礎設施、我們的地位和我們的關係，並以他們願意的方式發展，他們不會影響我們的營運。

We believe that we're perfectly positioned to be able to do the things we need to do.

我們相信我們完全有能力做我們需要做的事情。

We have the takeaway capacity, we have the export capacity, we have the infrastructure within the Permian.

我們有外送能力，我們有出口能力，我們有二疊紀的基礎設施。

So we're positioned, they're in a catch-up mode at this point.

所以我們已經定位，他們目前正處於追趕模式。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Jeff, just the part you mentioned about data analytics, I understand it's helping.

然後，傑夫，您提到的有關數據分析的部分，我知道它很有幫助。

Is there any quantification that you can offer on that front?

您可以在這方面提供任何量化嗎？

Or either what's been captured to date or what you would expect going forward?

或迄今為止已捕獲的內容或您對未來的期望？

Yes.

是的。

I think, the real quantification is when you look at performance improvements and ultimately, what's going to play out from a capital efficiency standpoint.

我認為，真正的量化是當你考慮到績效改進以及最終從資本效率的角度來看會產生什麼結果。

So I think when we point to our well performance and our development performance, all of that -- or a good portion of that is being driven with how we utilize data analytics.

因此，我認為，當我們指出我們的良好績效和開發績效時，所有這些（或其中很大一部分）都是由我們如何利用數據分析所驅動的。

And the thing I'd point to the most is as you can see, our development, our performance isn't based on a lot of trial and error.

我最想指出的是，正如你所看到的，我們的發展、我們的表現並不是基於大量的試驗和錯誤。

It's largely based on our ability to go in, understand the reservoir from the subsurface standpoint, utilize the huge amounts of data that we have in an effective way, and come up with an optimal development that delivers very good results from the beginning, not in a trial and error mode where you have to deploy a lot of capital that gets underutilized.

這很大程度上取決於我們深入了解油藏的能力，從地下的角度了解油藏，有效利用我們擁有的大量數據，並提出最佳開發方案，從一開始就帶來非常好的結果，而不是在試錯模式中，您必須部署大量未充分利用的資本。

And so it's almost unfair to point out.

所以指出這一點幾乎是不公平的。

We use artificial lift because that's where we made some huge breakthroughs, but we are applying data analytics in almost every aspect of the business with sub-surface characterization is the one we talk about the most because it's so impactful but it's being used universally across the business, and there is example after example on how that's creating value.

我們使用人工舉升是因為我們在這方面取得了一些巨大的突破，但我們幾乎在業務的每個方面都應用了數據分析，其中地下特徵是我們談論最多的一個，因為它影響力很大，而且在全球範圍內普遍使用 商業，並且有一個又一個關於如何創造價值的例子。

And it's okay, from our perspective, if you want to be unfair, when we're thinking about other stocks.

從我們的角度來看，當我們考慮其他股票時，如果你想不公平，那也沒關係。

And our next question will come from Bob Morris of Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的鮑伯·莫里斯。

My first question, Vicki, is with regard to, again, on the capital discipline side, you've capped the budget this year at $4.5 billion so you can return any cash generated above $50 a barrel to shareholders.

Vicki，我的第一個問題是關於資本紀律方面的，你們今年的預算上限為 45 億美元，這樣你們就可以將每桶 50 美元以上產生的任何現金返還給股東。

Again, beyond this year, you're stepping back up the CapEx and to do that, you'll end up spending cash above $50 a barrel.

再說一遍，今年之後，您將增加資本支出，為此，您最終將花費超過每桶 50 美元的現金。

And I know you have to do that to still hit your 5% to 8% production growth target.

我知道您必須這樣做才能仍然實現 5% 至 8% 的產量成長目標。

But to what extent would you consider continuing what you're doing this year just sort of cap any spin to return cash above $50 per barrel to shareholders?

但您會在多大程度上考慮繼續今年所做的事情，只是限制任何旋轉，以向股東返還每桶 50 美元以上的現金？

I know that would put your growth at the low end of your range and you can still obtain double-digit growth out of Permian Resources.

我知道這會使您的成長處於範圍的低端，但您仍然可以從二疊紀資源中獲得兩位數的成長。

So is there a scenario where you may continue, like you're doing this year, beyond this year to return any excess cash above $50 a barrel to shareholders?

那麼，是否有可能像今年一樣，在今年之後繼續將每桶 50 美元以上的多餘現金回饋給股東？

Our assumption for 2020 was based on our belief that oil prices will be at $60 in 2020.

我們對 2020 年的假設是基於 2020 年油價將達到 60 美元的信念。

And if that's the case, with a budget of 5 to 5 3, we would still be able to return cash to shareholders and we want to continue to, at some point, grow dividend more meaningfully, and Cedric will talk about that a little later.

如果是這樣的話，在預算為 5 到 5 3 的情況下，我們仍然能夠向股東返還現金，並且我們希望在某個時候繼續更有意義地增加股息，塞德里克稍後會討論這一點。

But our 5 to 5 3 capital budget would allow for us above a $60 environment to return cash, and that's something that we've always done, as I mentioned in my script, and something that we'll continue to do.

但我們 5 到 5 3 的資本預算將允許我們在 60 美元以上的環境下返還現金，這是我們一直在做的事情，正如我在劇本中提到的，我們將繼續這樣做。

We think a balanced return of cash to shareholders through repurchases and a strong dividend with a right balance between those is important to continue.

我們認為，透過回購向股東提供均衡的現金回報和強勁的股息以及兩者之間的適當平衡對於繼續下去非常重要。

Sure.

當然。

No, I appreciate that.

不，我很欣賞這一點。

So my second question is for Cedric.

我的第二個問題是問塞德里克的。

Cedric, last quarter, you mentioned that M&A was part of Oxy's DNA.

Cedric，上個季度，您提到併購是 Oxy DNA 的一部分。

And so at this stage, do you see the A&D environment more conducive to opportunities for Oxy out there or you can grow more optimistic with regard to potential acquisitions or adding peer portfolio in the Permian?

因此，在現階段，您是否認為 A&D 環境更有利於 Oxy 的機會，或者您可以對潛在收購或在二疊紀增加同行投資組合更加樂觀？

Well, it's -- we've certainly seen a few -- some activity picking up in M&A.

嗯，我們確實看到了一些併購活動的增加。

I would say, from Oxy's perspective, we're always aware and we keep ourselves very informed.

我想說，從 Oxy 的角度來看，我們始終保持清醒的認識，並且隨時了解情況。

We look at a lot of opportunities.

我們看到了很多機會。

It's rare when we don't get a call when there's something coming to market.

當有產品上市時我們沒有接到電話的情況很少見。

But if you look at our organic growth opportunities, as we've described, they're robust across the globe and across each business sectors.

但如果你看看我們的有機成長機會，正如我們所描述的，它們在全球範圍內和各個業務部門都很強勁。

So we don't have to do a deal, and we only want to do a deal if it's going to be very accretive to our shareholders and for value.

因此，我們不必進行交易，只有當交易對我們的股東和價值非常有利時，我們才想進行交易。

So we do see ourselves, over the long run, being a consolidator.

因此，從長遠來看，我們確實認為自己是個整合者。

It's one of the things that goes with -- or opportunities that goes with being a low cost producer.

這是成為低成本生產商所伴隨的事情之一，或者說是機會。

We consider ourselves one of, if not, the lowest cost producer in the basins and places we choose to operate.

我們認為自己是我們選擇經營的盆地和地區成本最低的生產商之一（如果不是的話）。

So I think there will be consolidation opportunities over time, as I said before.

所以我認為，正如我之前所說，隨著時間的推移，將會出現整合機會。

However, it needs to be a compelling deal for us and for our shareholders, and that's how we look at it.

然而，對於我們和我們的股東來說，這必須是一項引人注目的交易，這就是我們的看法。

Is there an advanced catalyst to sort of spark an increase in consolidation, not necessarily for Oxy, but across the Permian at some point?

是否有一種先進的催化劑可以激發整合的增加，不一定是針對 Oxy，而是在某個時候跨越二疊紀？

That's hard for me to predict.

這對我來說很難預測。

There's certainly a lot of assets and small private companies that don't seem to have the scale or the technology to put themselves in a low-cost producer status.

當然，有許多資產和小型私人公司似乎不具備將自己置於低成本生產者地位的規模或技術。

So at some point, perhaps those come to market at more reasonable prices.

因此，在某些時候，也許這些產品會以更合理的價格進入市場。

There have been a few, but it's hard to predict those things.

確實有一些，但很難預測這些事情。

We're certainly ready when that happens.

當這種情況發生時，我們當然已經準備好了。

And then otherwise, there are other operators that are trying to figure out if they can make the breakthroughs that we have and so on, and it will just be something that will be to be determined.

除此之外，還有其他業者正在嘗試弄清楚他們是否可以取得我們所擁有的突破等等，這只是有待確定的事情。

It's hard to predict.

很難預測。

Bob, this is Jeff.

鮑勃，這是傑夫。

I mean, the only thing I'd add to what Cedric said, if you look at the Permian history, it's consolidated when then business got really hard.

我的意思是，我唯一要補充的是塞德里克所說的，如果你看看二疊紀歷史，當生意變得非常困難時，它就會得到鞏固。

Prices dropped, margins got squeezed, and then consolidation generally happened.

價格下跌，利潤受到擠壓，然後整合普遍發生。

I think, when you look across the unconventional space, you all know better than anyone, the business continues to get harder not easier as people move to full section development, having to operate with low operating cost, manage infrastructure, large scale wells, all those things.

我認為，當你縱觀非常規領域時，你都比任何人都清楚，隨著人們轉向全斷面開發，業務繼續變得更加困難而不是容易，必須以較低的運營成本進行運營，管理基礎設施，大型油井，所有那些東西。

So we're definitely progressing to where you're starting to see differentiation between those that are good operators and those that are maybe aren't as good.

因此，我們肯定正在取得進展，您將開始看到優秀操作員和可能不太好的操作員之間的差異。

No, I agree.

不，我同意。

Oxy's positioned very well in that type of environment.

Oxy 在這種環境中處於非常有利的位置。

Our next question comes from Paul Sankey of Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的保羅桑基。

Just a couple of points of clarification on your presentation, if I could.

如果可以的話，請對您的演示進行幾點澄清。

On Slide 4, you state that you drilled less than 5% of the horizontal wells in the Permian but have 40% of the top 50 well results.

在投影片 4 中，您表示您在二疊紀鑽探了不到 5% 的水平井，但獲得了前 50 口井結果的 40%。

Could you expand on that a little bit in terms of what you're comparing and how you're comparing that?

您能否就您正在比較的內容以及如何進行比較進行一些擴充？

Sure, Paul.

當然，保羅。

I'll take that.

我會接受的。

It -- basically if you go to -- anyone who has the deck opened, Slide 31 shows that.

基本上，如果你去找任何打開這副牌的人，投影片 31 就顯示了這一點。

So there's lots of ways to measure performance.

因此，有很多方法可以衡量性能。

The specific measure that we use as a cleanest as to where we look at over the last year, the top 50 wells from an IP standpoint, where are they?

我們使用的最乾淨的具體衡量標準是我們去年觀察的地方，從智慧財產權的角度來看，排名前 50 的井，它們在哪裡？

Who has them?

誰有它們？

And then, you can see on the left, we've got 20 of the top 50 over the last year.

然後，您可以在左側看到，我們在去年的前 50 名中佔據了 20 名。

We've showed this for several quarters.

我們已經在幾個季度中展示了這一點。

You can see how it moves around and how it progresses, and that 40% of those we're the top operator when you look at the data.

您可以看到它如何移動以及如何進展，當您查看數據時，我們是其中 40% 的頂級操作員。

Another thing we add to it, on the right, which is something we often talk about is, we're able to do it with less proppant.

我們在右側添加的另一件事是我們經常談論的，我們能夠用更少的支撐劑來做到這一點。

And the reason we highlight that is two-fold.

我們強調這一點的原因有兩個。

One, it's a big cost driver, obviously you all know the more proppant you pump the more cost, but two, it really indicates how we customize our developments.

第一，它是一個很大的成本驅動因素，顯然你們都知道泵入的支撐劑越多，成本就越高，但第二，它確實表明了我們如何定制我們的開發。

You can see we don't have a universal number where we use 2,000 pounds per foot on every well, we vary it, and that's a function of our development strategy and our understanding of the subsurface to get really, really good wells in a customizable way.

你可以看到，我們沒有一個通用的數字，即每口井使用2,000 磅每英尺，我們會改變它，這是我們的開發策略和我們對地下的理解的函數，以便在可定制的情況下獲得真正非常好的井。

The other thing I'd point you to, Paul, one thing we put in their because the question we keep getting asked all the time is are results continuing to improve?

保羅，我要向你指出的另一件事是，我們在他們中放入了一件事，因為我們一直被問到的問題是結果是否持續改善？

And it seems like every time you show a comparison of results, they are normalized by something, or you cherry pick which wells you use, you exclude this, you include this.

似乎每次你顯示結果比較時，它們都會被某種東西標準化，或者你精心挑選你使用的井，你排除這個，你包括這個。

So we included a slide in this deck that I'll point out, Slide 28.

因此，我們在這組投影片中加入了一張投影片，我將指出它，即投影片 28。

So what this slide is, it shows our 6-month performance for every horizontal well.

那麼這張幻燈片是什麼，它顯示了我們每口水平井 6 個月的表現。

We didn't cherry pick which wells would go in there, all appraisal wells, all development wells, all of our wells are in every year that you can see for '15, '16, '17 and '18 across Midland Basin, New Mexico, Texas Delaware, and it answers the fundamental question of are we able to continue to improve?

我們沒有精心挑選哪些井會在那裡，所有評價井，所有開發井，我們所有的井每年都在，你可以在米德蘭盆地、新州看到'15、'16、'17和'18墨西哥、德州、德拉瓦州，它回答了我們是否能夠繼續改進的基本問題？

And you can look at each year and there's reasons that vary on why we're improving.

你可以看看每一年，我們進步的原因各不相同。

Some years, it may be more at lateral lengths.

有些年份，橫向長度可能較多。

Some years, it may be better completions.

有些年頭，可能完成得更好。

Every year is being driven by a better understanding of the subsurface.

每一年都是因為對地下有了更好的了解而推動的。

And so there's lots of things driving it.

所以有很多因素在推動它。

But the fundamental question of, are we continuing to improve?

但最根本的問題是，我們是否在持續改進？

I think answered with this slide.

我想這張投影片已經回答了。

And what makes it even more impressive is when you dig in to the details and you look at 2018, that's with 90-plus-percent of wells that have an offset, so characterized as children wells.

更令人印象深刻的是，當你深入研究細節並查看 2018 年時，你會發現 90% 以上的井都有偏移，因此被稱為兒童井。

So the big debate on are children wells worse than parent wells, we can have that discussion of fundamentally you can look at, for many different reasons we continue to get better well performance every year.

因此，關於子井是否比母井更差的大爭論，我們可以從根本上進行討論，您可以看看，由於許多不同的原因，我們每年都繼續獲得更好的井性能。

And follow-up along the lines of clarification on Slide 7. You talk about unconventional EOR commercial success in 2019.

並按照幻燈片 7 中的澄清進行後續跟進。

Could you talk more about that?

能多談談嗎？

I'm not sure what you mean there?

我不確定你的意思是什麼？

We have, in the past, done 4 CO2 injection pilots in the Midland Basin to test the efficiency and the commerciality of CO2 flooding the shale.

過去，我們在米德蘭盆地進行了 4 次二氧化碳注入試點，以測試二氧化碳驅頁岩的效率和商業性。

And that's in the Midland.

那是在米德蘭。

And what we're looking at in the Southeast New Mexico area is more of an enhanced oil recovery with using hydrocarbon gas injection, which would do 2 things for us: first, it would help us to maintain pressure; secondly, it would become also somewhat miscible than the oil, and would make it the same as CO2 does, make it more -- less reluctance to flow, lower the friction, improve the ability to flow the oil from where it is to the producer, whether it's a huff and puff or full string.

我們在新墨西哥州東南部地區關注的更多是透過碳氫化合物氣體注入來提高石油採收率，這將為我們做兩件事：首先，它將幫助我們保持壓力；其次，它也會變得比石油更易混溶，並且會使其與二氧化碳相同，使其更不易流動，降低摩擦，提高石油從所在位置流向生產者的能力，無論是氣喘吁籲還是完整的字符串。

What we intend to do in Southeast New Mexico would be a continuous injection that would be full string.

我們打算在新墨西哥州東南部進行全線連續注入。

So we're going to test that.

所以我們要測試一下。

We believe, based on our models that it'll work, and part of the objective there is to try to lower the decline of the Resources business, and we believe that will successfully do that over time.

我們相信，根據我們的模型，它會起作用，部分目標是試圖降低資源業務的衰退，我們相信隨著時間的推移，這將成功做到這一點。

And next we have a question from Ryan Todd of Simmons Energy.

接下來，西蒙斯能源公司的瑞安·托德（Ryan Todd）提出了一個問題。

Looking forward, as we think about the normalization of CapEx, you have a backdoor, it's kind of a $5 billion to $5.3 billion level beyond 2019.

展望未來，當我們考慮資本支出的正常化時，你會發現一個後門，2019 年後的規模將達到 50 億至 53 億美元。

The incremental capital driven, in that case, driven more by an acceleration of activity in the Permian Basin?

在這種情況下，增量資本的驅動更多是由二疊紀盆地活動的加速所驅動的嗎？

Or by resumption of activity in international regions?

或透過恢復國際地區的活動？

It will be both.

兩者都會。

The incremental capital in 2020 will be spread between our Resources and the international areas, part of which will go to the growth areas.

2020年增量資金將在資源區和國際區之間進行分配，其中一部分將流向成長領域。

We do expect to start seeing -- we're going to continue growth from our base areas internationally through exploration and some of the other things that we're doing, but we'll pick that up in the new areas as we complete our appraisal programs.

我們確實希望開始看到——我們將透過勘探和我們正在做的其他一些事情，從我們的國際基地地區繼續成長，但當我們完成評估時，我們將在新領域繼續成長程序。

Now the bulk of the growth capital is still going to go to Resources in 2020, but we will send more to these -- to the new areas.

現在，到 2020 年，大部分成長資本仍將流向資源部門，但我們將向這些新領域投入更多資金。

And maybe on that as well, you'd referenced kind of the base case, kind of assumes $60 crude in 2020.

也許在這一點上，您也提到了某種基本情況，假設 2020 年原油價格為 60 美元。

If we were to be at $50 again in 2020, would you see a similar type of program that we see here in 2019 where you continue to kind of smear out the international investment and run a moderated program in the onshore.

如果我們在 2020 年再次達到 50 美元，你會看到我們在 2019 年看到的類似類型的計劃，你會繼續抹黑國際投資並在境內運行一個經過調節的計劃。

It will be dependent really on where we are with respect to our cash flow.

這實際上取決於我們的現金流狀況。

Our commitment is to stay -- keep our capital programs within cash flow going forward.

我們的承諾是繼續保持我們的資本計畫在現金流範圍內。

So if we're in a $50 environment with what we're seeing from efficiency improvements and are increasing production in 2020, I wouldn't say that we would be at the 4 5, it would depend on how our cost are looking then and everything else, but we would stay within cash flow.

因此，如果我們處於 50 美元的環境中，我們看到效率提高並在 2020 年增加產量，我不會說我們會達到 4 5，這將取決於我們當時的成本情況以及其他一切，但我們會保持在現金流範圍內。

Maybe an unrelated question, I appreciate some of the details you provided on water sourcing.

也許是一個不相關的問題，我很欣賞您提供的有關水源的一些細節。

Can you talk through how you see a potential risk of increasing cost from water disposal going forward particularly in the Delaware Basin?

您能否談談您如何看待未來水處理成本增加的潛在風險，特別是在特拉華盆地？

And how are you set up to handle water disposal over the long term?

從長遠來看，您如何處理水處理問題？

One thing -- this is Jeff.

一件事——這是傑夫。

So one thing, given our full cycle value focus, water infrastructure is really, really important in all of our development areas from the very beginning.

因此，鑑於我們對全週期價值的關注，水基礎設施從一開始就在我們所有的開發領域中確實非常重要。

So if you go look at New Mexico and how much we're recycling up there, the size of our water infrastructure in Texas Delaware, I mean we see it not only as a risk to the business if you don't manage it properly, but definitely a significant economic risk if you can't do it well.

因此，如果你去看看新墨西哥州，看看我們在那裡回收了多少，德克薩斯州特拉華州的水基礎設施的規模，我的意思是，如果你管理不當，我們不僅將其視為對企業的風險，但如果你做不好，肯定會帶來重大的經濟風險。

So one of the things we do from the very beginning when we go into a development area, is ensure we have water infrastructure in place to collect the water, recycle it where we can, as much as we can, and then have numerous disposal outlets for when we're done with whatever water is left over.

因此，當我們進入開發區時，我們從一開始就要做的事情之一就是確保我們擁有適當的水利基礎設施來收集水，盡可能地回收利用水，然後擁有眾多的處理口因為當我們用完剩下的水時。

And so I'd say, in all of our development areas, we're very well-positioned, and where there are some areas that have different risks than others, some may be cost and just availability, some maybe permitting related to seismicity or whatever it is, we've identified it and mitigated those risk in all of our development areas.

所以我想說，在我們所有的開發領域，我們都處於非常有利的位置，有些領域的風險與其他領域不同，有些可能是成本和可用性，有些可能與地震活動或允許相關不管是什麼，我們都已經識別出來並在我們所有的開發領域減輕了這些風險。

And the next question comes from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩·辛格。

A couple questions with regards to the longer-term outlook here.

關於長期前景的幾個問題。

In the years to come, how do you see your skill in the Permian impacting global unit operating and G&A cost?

在未來的幾年裡，您如何看待您在二疊紀盆地的技能對全球單位營運和一般管理成本的影響？

Do you see these cost falling flat or rising on a per BOE basis?

您認為這些成本以每桶油當量計算是持平還是上升？

And what's base cased into that 2022 cash flow plan?

2022 年現金流計畫的基礎是什麼？

And then if I might add to that separately, and you talked a little bit about this earlier, what gives you confidence to base case production in Oman in the UAE even if it's 3 to 4 years out, are there key milestones that we should be focused on between now and then?

然後，如果我可以單獨補充一下，您之前談到了這一點，那麼是什麼讓您對阿聯酋阿曼的基礎案例生產充滿信心，即使是 3 到 4 年後，我們是否應該實現關鍵里程碑專注於從現在到那時？

First with respect to the G&A, the G&A on a per BOE basis will be coming down over time.

首先，關於一般費用和行政費用，每個 BOE 的一般費用和行政費用將隨著時間的推移而下降。

So that should be the case.

所以情況應該是這樣的。

And that's what we've assumed in our 2022 plan.

這就是我們在 2022 年計畫中的假設。

The other thing that, with respect to the milestones, the milestones are listed on Slide 7, and what we've tried to give you there is more of a road map of how we're going to get there in the international blocks particularly with some information about the unconventional EOR and when that might happen.

另一件事，關於里程碑，里程碑列在幻燈片 7 上，我們試圖向您提供更多路線圖，說明我們將如何在國際區塊中實現這一目標，特別是有關非常規EOR 以及何時可能發生的一些資訊。

But this is essentially the road map we wanted you to be able to see so you can check what's happening as we go.

但這本質上是我們希望您能夠看到的路線圖，以便您可以隨時查看正在發生的情況。

With respect to what -- yes, with respect to what the performance will be, it's sort of going to be based on analogs.

是的，就性能而言，它將基於類比。

Ken pointed out something to me just recently, and that is that, if you look at the 4 countries that are contiguous there, you look at -- we're probably the only company that has operated in all 4 of those countries that have this similar trend.

肯最近向我指出了一些事情，那就是，如果你看看那裡毗鄰的 4 個國家，你會發現——我們可能是唯一一家在所有 4 個國家都有業務的公司類似的趨勢。

So we have a lot of experience in this trend, and we can do analogs that help us understand how to forecast, what to expect.

因此，我們在這一趨勢方面擁有豐富的經驗，我們可以進行類比，幫助我們了解如何預測、期待什麼。

So we have a lot of good information around that.

所以我們有很多關於這方面的好資訊。

But with respect to the road map, I want to let Ken tell you little bit more about that.

但關於路線圖，我想讓 Ken 告訴你更多相關資訊。

Thanks, Vicki.

謝謝，維基。

If we start with Oman in the north, the game plan is to further define the hydrocarbons in Block 30 and 51 in order that we can optimize the regional development by potentially using our existing Block 62 as a hub for facilities.

如果我們從北部的阿曼開始，我們的計劃是進一步確定 30 號和 51 號區塊的碳氫化合物，以便我們可以利用現有的 62 號區塊作為設施樞紐來優化區域開發。

On a previous call, I was asked, would we spud a well in Block 30 before the end of last year?

在之前的一次電話中，我被問到，我們會在去年年底前在 30 號區塊打一口井嗎？

We did.

我們做到了。

It's non-trend discovery, and in fact, we found a new zone that we were not expecting.

這是非趨勢發現，事實上，我們發現了一個我們沒有預料到的新區域。

We plan to drill a follow-on well this quarter.

我們計劃本季鑽一口後續井。

On Block 51, we're reprocessing the existing seismic lines and plan to be drill ready by Q3 this year, which led to look at the hub concept for Block 62.

在 51 號區塊上，我們正​​在重新處理現有的地震線，並計劃在今年第三季之前做好鑽探準備，這導致我們考慮了 62 號區塊的樞紐概念。

We think hub-and-spoke is the best and most efficient way to develop this area.

我們認為軸輻式是開發該區域的最佳且最有效的方式。

In Block 72, we started shooting seismic and we hope to have useable data by Q2 2020, but we may use some fast-track data for early drilling.

在 72 區塊，我們開始拍攝地震，我們希望在 2020 年第二季之前獲得可用數據，但我們可能會使用一些快速數據進行早期鑽探。

Again, our oil targets there are similar to those we've seen in our existing Block 53 hub.

同樣，我們在那裡的石油目標與我們在現有的 Block 53 中心看到的類似。

Again, hub-and-spoke concept to maximize efficiencies.

同樣，軸輻概念可以最大限度地提高效率。

In Abu Dhabi, we are delighted to land Block 3. The block is 90 miles long, 30 miles wide, and very few wells have been drilled there since the 1970s.

在阿布達比，我們很高興能登陸 3 號區塊。

It's in a great location, not only because of proximity of super giant fields, but also because of infrastructure for success where we can hook up the flow lines very quickly and get that oil to export very quickly.

它地理位置優越，不僅因為靠近超大型油田，還因為我們擁有成功的基礎設施，我們可以非常快速地連接管線並快速出口石油。

I mentioned earlier, we'll spud a well this year.

我之前提到過，今年我們將打一口井。

We've already mapped 162 prospects in 11 stacked reservoirs as targets, and within these based on the new 3D seismic, which we think is some of the most cost efficient seismic ever obtained by anyone in the industry.

我們已經將 11 個疊置油藏的 162 個遠景繪製為目標，其中基於新的 3D 地震，我們認為這是業內任何人獲得的最具成本效益的地震之一。

So overall, we've tried to detail the milestones for Oman and Abu Dhabi.

總的來說，我們試圖詳細介紹阿曼和阿布達比的里程碑。

In Colombia, we're ramping up TECA, we'll drill 30 wells this year in TECA and we will stream online to them this year, replacing all along lead items for TECA, which will enable the ramp up to continue through 2020 and 2021.

在哥倫比亞，我們正在擴大 TECA，今年我們將在 TECA 鑽探 30 口井，今年我們將在線上向他們提供服務，取代 TECA 的所有主要項目，這將使擴大規模能夠持續到 2020 年和 2021 年。

And as Vicki said, we're continuing to explore in our core existing assets also.

正如 Vicki 所說，我們也持續探索我們的核心現有資產。

So we've tried to make the road map something that we can update you on periodically as we get good results, and I hope that answers your question.

因此，我們嘗試制定路線圖，以便在取得良好結果後定期向您更新，我希望這能回答您的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

And my follow-up goes back to the Permian.

我的後續行動可以追溯到二疊紀。

And you highlighted some of the areas of efficiency and productivity gains in your comments, and so far, in the Q&A.

您在評論中以及迄今為止的問答中強調了一些提高效率和生產力的領域。

I think, if we look at across the landscape, even among larger and more scaled-oriented Permian companies, for a company of your Permian Resources production base, you're planning to grow production at a rate that other E&Ps kind of spend more in capital to achieve than what you're projecting.

我認為，如果我們縱觀整個格局，即使是在規模更大、規模更大的二疊紀公司中，對於二疊紀資源生產基地的公司來說，你計劃以其他勘探與生產公司花費更多的速度來增加產量。

Can you just talk to what you see as the risk around the Permian capital and production plan this year?

您能否談談您認為今年二疊紀資本和生產計畫面臨的風險？

And to what degree Aventine hub is going to be a driver of further capital efficiency or whether that's already essentially been reflected in recent CapEx results?

阿文丁中心將在多大程度上成為進一步資本效率的驅動力，或者這是否已經在最近的資本支出結果中得到了實質反映？

Yes, Brian, this is Jeff.

是的，布萊恩，這是傑夫。

I'll take your question.

我來回答你的問題。

So I mean, the risk -- we feel really good about the areas we're developing in, because they are -- one, they're core development areas, we know them really well.

所以我的意思是，風險——我們對我們正在開發的領域感覺非常好，因為它們——一，它們是核心開發領域，我們非常了解它們。

There's not a huge appraisal component to it.

它沒有很大的評估成分。

There is a little bit.

有一點點。

Again, like last year, when we drilled a lot of development wells, so we weren't just out drilling single wells.

再次，就像去年一樣，當時我們鑽了很多開發井，所以我們不只是鑽單口井。

It fits that same old, so it's a progression of areas we feel very comfortable with technically.

它與舊的一樣，所以這是我們在技術上感到非常滿意的領域的進步。

So from a well performance risk, I think it's very, very low.

因此，從良好的績效風險來看，我認為這是非常非常低的。

The biggest risk I see, is actually from a performance standpoint, we're starting to see high productivity gains and lower time-to-market, drilling faster and things like that.

我看到的最大風險實際上是從性能的角度來看，我們開始看到生產力的提高和上市時間的縮短，鑽井速度更快等等。

So the biggest challenge I see with us is as that continues, what do we do when that pace keeps picking up.

因此，我認為我們面臨的最大挑戰是，隨著這種情況的繼續，當這種步伐不斷加快時我們該怎麼辦？

But from a cost standpoint, Aventine is up and running.

但從成本的角度來看，Aventine 已經啟動並運行。

So we've realized 2/3 of the benefits from that.

所以我們已經實現了 2/3 的好處。

We feel very comfortable with that.

我們對此感到非常滿意。

We have our people in place.

我們的人員就位。

I mean, one of the things we did very early on is not just wait till we have the activity to start getting all the right resources in place.

我的意思是，我們很早就做的事情之一不僅僅是等到我們有活動時才開始將所有正確的資源到位。

So I really feel like our program is de-risked from a execution standpoint, cost, and performance standpoint for this year, especially at the pace we're going.

因此，我真的覺得從今年的執行角度、成本和績效角度來看，我們的計畫已經消除了風險，尤其是按照我們目前的節奏。

Because like Vicki said, running 12 rigs for us is a very moderate pace, especially compared to many others, and especially compared, if you go back a few years ago, we are at 40.

因為就像 Vicki 所說，對我們來說，運行 12 台鑽機是一個非常適中的速度，特別是與許多其他人相比，尤其是與幾年前相比，我們現在是 40 歲。

So it's well within our bandwidth to handle this, not just execution, but technically.

因此，我們完全可以處理這個問題，不僅是執行上，而且是技術上。

And the next question comes from Doug Leggate of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Doug Leggate。

Cedric, I wonder if I could just get some clarification from you on Slide 21.

Cedric，我想知道您是否可以對幻燈片 21 進行一些澄清。

And I guess, I'm also comparing it to the slide you put up specific to 2019 capital back in I think there was a conference at the beginning of the year.

我想，我還將其與您在 2019 年年初發布的專門針對 2019 年資本的幻燈片進行了比較，我認為年初舉行了一次會議。

So what I am really trying to understand here is, so $50 TI post-'19, you're capping your spending, is that the way to think about this, and above that is going back to shareholders?

所以我在這裡真正想理解的是，所以 19 年後 TI 的 50 美元，你限制了你的支出，這是考慮這個問題的方式嗎？

Good question, I appreciate the clarification.

好問題，我很感謝您的澄清。

We weren't intending to have it be precise where you move from 1 penny to the next and that shifts gears but it's indicative of our -- the way we think about it, it has been I guess 2 years ago when we came out with our breakeven plan which allows us to sustain a world-class dividend and keep our production base flat at $40 oil.

我們並不打算讓你從 1 便士移動到下一個便士的位置變得精確，這會改變齒輪，但它表明了我們的思考方式，我想是在 2 年前，當我們推出我們的盈虧平衡計劃使我們能夠維持世界一流的股息，並使我們的生產基礎保持在40 美元的石油水準。

And what we're doing today, 2 years later is nothing short of amazing in terms of beating those assumptions, beating that plan.

兩年後，我們今天所做的事情在擊敗這些假設和計劃方面簡直令人驚嘆。

We're beating it on cost, as Jeff outlined, we're beating it on productivity of our wells and so as we continue to lower our breakevens just by the way, that is one of the keys to us raising our dividend at a more meaningful rate.

正如傑夫所概述的那樣，我們在成本上擊敗了它，我們在油井生產力上擊敗了它，因此，順便說一句，當我們繼續降低盈虧平衡點時，這是我們以更高的速度提高股息的關鍵之一。

We've continued to raise our dividend 16 consecutive years, but it's been more modest since the downturn, more modest rates.

我們連續 16 年持續提高股息，但自經濟低迷以來，股息率更加溫和。

We'd like to go back to more aggressive rates, but the key to that is lowering our breakevens and delivering more cash flow from that.

我們希望回到更積極的利率，但關鍵是降低我們的收支平衡並從中提供更多現金流。

So -- but above $40, we are looking to reinvest first and kind of -- would get to that 5% to 8% target long-term growth rate, continue modest dividend growth, and then above the $50, we are looking at both balance sheet improvement as well as share repurchases and that's something we certainly demonstrated last year.

因此，但在 40 美元以上，我們希望首先進行再投資，達到 5% 至 8% 的長期增長率目標，繼續適度的股息增長，然後在 50 美元以上，我們正​​在考慮兩者資產負債表的改善以及股票回購，這是我們去年所證明的。

So I wouldn't give you a precise $50.01, we're going to share buyback that number, or dividend increase, but it is how we're thinking about it as you get into certainly in a $60 environment, which is what we're forecasting through the 2020, we think that is a logical price for the industry to balance supply and demand.

所以我不會給你一個精確的 50.01 美元，我們將股票回購這個數字，或增加股息，但這是我們在進入 60 美元環境時的思考方式，這就是我們的想法。我們認為這是該行業平衡供需的合理價格。

That is something we would look to do as we return more capital at that point.

當我們屆時將返還更多資本時，我們會考慮這樣做。

We don't need to grow any more than that 5% to 8% long-term target.

我們的成長不需要超過 5% 到 8% 的長期目標。

Understand that.

明白這一點。

Appreciate the clarification because I just wasn't -- I think there was an earlier question, it sounded like it was different, but that's very clear.

感謝您的澄清，因為我只是沒有 - 我認為之前有一個問題，聽起來好像有所不同，但這非常清楚。

Just to try going to that very quickly, the $50 TI, I assume you're still using a $10 differential for Brent?

只是為了快速嘗試一下，50 美元的 TI，我假設您仍在使用布蘭特原油 10 美元的差價？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

My follow-up then is also related to the dividend, so I know you and I talked about this many times in the past, but if you're at $9 billion, let's assume in a couple of year's time or let's assume oil maybe is a little bit more generous in between times, is your first priority to reduce the dividend burden by buying back stock, because on a per share basis, you still get a big growth if you buyback the stock.

我的後續行動也與股息有關，所以我知道你和我過去多次討論過這個問題，但如果你的資產是 90 億美元，讓我們假設幾年後，或者假設石油可能是在兩次之間稍微慷慨一點，是你的首要任務，透過回購股票來減輕股息負擔，因為以每股為基礎，如果你回購股票，你仍然可以獲得很大的成長。

How should we think about absolute dividend growth versus per share growth through share buybacks?

我們該如何看待絕對股利成長與透過股票回購實現的每股成長？

I'll leave it there.

我會把它留在那裡。

Great question.

很好的問題。

I mean, we see dividends and share buybacks as complementary.

我的意思是，我們認為股利和股票回購是互補的。

I will say, our first priority is always the dividend, and we proved that in the downturn.

我想說，我們的首要任務始終是股息，我們在經濟低迷時期證明了這一點。

We're one of the few high-dividend paying companies that didn't cut the dividend.

我們是少數幾家沒有削減股利的高股息公司之一。

There's a long trail of bodies of companies that did.

有很多公司都這麼做了。

We're very proud of our track record in it, in a very tough time.

在非常困難的時期，我們對我們在這方面的記錄感到非常自豪。

So our priority is and always will be the dividend.

因此，我們的首要任務是而且永遠都是股利。

We want to -- we will continue to grow it.

我們希望——我們將繼續發展它。

That's our intent, and we certainly want to grow it at even more meaningful rates as we're able to.

這就是我們的意圖，我們當然希望盡可能以更有意義的速度成長它。

Can't forecast when that will be, but as we think about higher prices that's certainly, like I said earlier, when we start to think about buybacks, and it's complementary as you stated, because it does reduce the share count, which enables us to afford dividend growth more easily.

無法預測什麼時候會發生，但當我們考慮更高的價格時，就像我之前所說的那樣，當我們開始考慮回購時，正如您所說，它是互補的，因為它確實減少了股票數量，這使我們能夠更容易承受股息增長。

So -- but certainly, that $9 billion that we're forecasting in 2020, should we have a $60 environment?

那麼，當然，我們預測 2020 年將達到 90 億美元，我們是否應該擁有一個 60 美元的環境？

If you back out the midpoint of the CapEx range at that time of $5.1 billion, that leaves you $3.9 billion of free cash flow.

如果您取消當時資本支出範圍的中點 51 億美元，那麼您將剩下 39 億美元的自由現金流。

That compares to our current dividend of about $2.4 billion.

相比之下，我們目前的股息約為 24 億美元。

So that's more than a 50% cushion on that dividend, if you will, that would allow you in a $60 environment to both grow the dividend and do buybacks.

因此，如果您願意的話，這相當於股息的 50% 以上的緩衝，這將允許您在 60 美元的環境中既增加股息又進行回購。

So I think we would be in a very good position at even a modest improvement in oil prices over that time to be in a really good position to deliver, return a lot more capital, and we would do it in both dividends and buybacks, which again, I think -- we think of as complementary.

因此，我認為，即使油價在此期間略有改善，我們也將處於非常有利的位置，能夠交付、返還更多資本，我們將在股息和回購方面做到這一點，我再次認為——我們認為是互補的。

And the next question comes from Phil Gresh of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的菲爾·格雷什。

Just starting, I guess, with midstream.

我想，剛開始，中游。

Could you help maybe bridge the 4Q actual results to the 1Q guidance?

您能否幫助將第四季度的實際結果與第一季的指導聯繫起來？

I know maybe there were some items on both sides here, but it just seemed a little bit bigger than like in the normal sensitivity, was suggesting the differentials.

我知道這裡兩側可能都有一些物品，但它看起來比正常靈敏度中的大一點，這表明存在差異。

And then if you have an outlook on the full year for the midstream business, whether it's on differentials or the pretax income, if you could share that?

然後，如果您對中游業務的全年展望，無論是差異還是稅前收入，您是否可以分享？

Yes.

是的。

Part of what's happening in Q1 is a Dolphin turn around.

第一季發生的部分事情是海豚式的逆轉。

So that's part of the difference between Q4 and the Midstream and the differential impact and in Dolphin.

這就是第四季度和中游之間的差異以及海豚的差異影響的一部分。

And we have some other just general marketing things that will have an impact in Q1 that we can detail out after Q1.

我們還有其他一些一般性的行銷活動，這些活動將對第一季產生影響，我們可以在第一季後詳細說明。

With respect to the full year, it's kind of hard to forecast the full year at this point, because of the differentials and what the volatility there might be.

就全年而言，由於存在差異以及可能的波動性，目前很難預測全年。

So we will see how things go over the next few months-or-so.

所以我們將看看接下來幾個月左右事情會如何發展。

Hey Phil, this is Jeff.

嘿菲爾，這是傑夫。

And just to add to what Vicki said.

只是補充一下維基所說的內容。

I mean, one thing that we want to update people on is to remember when the differential collapses, you see that in Midstream from a negative standpoint.

我的意思是，我們想讓人們了解的一件事是要記住，當差異崩潰時，你會從消極的角度在中游看到這一點。

But the upstream now, given our oil production in the Permian, we will realize more than 50% of what you lose on the Midstream side.

但現在在上游，考慮到我們在二疊紀的石油產量，我們將實現中游一側損失的 50% 以上。

So a good way to think about that, we gave that sensitivity, so as that differential collapses, just for everyone to remember that more than half of the benefit will be recognized in oil and gas.

因此，一個很好的思考方式是，我們賦予了這種敏感性，以便縮小差異，只是為了讓每個人記住，一半以上的好處將在石油和天然氣中得到認可。

Sure.

當然。

I mean, is there a caustic price assumption that will be behind that chemicals guidance?

我的意思是，該化學品指導背後是否存在苛刻的價格假設？

I know that maybe early part of the year seems to be a little tougher than the back half, I'm just trying to calibrate that.

我知道也許今年年初似乎比下半年更艱難，我只是想調整一下。

Yes, Phil, this is BJ.

是的，菲爾，這是 BJ。

For caustic and obviously we saw price erosion towards the end of 2018, our assumption in 2019 is we're going to see some price pick up, but not to the level of the erosion that we saw towards the end of the year.

對於苛性鹼，顯然我們在 2018 年底看到了價格侵蝕，我們在 2019 年的假設是價格將會有所回升，但不會達到我們在年底看到的侵蝕水平。

So we're taking a conservative approach looking forward.

因此，我們對未來採取保守的態度。

But we feel really good about supply and demand fundamentals long term in the caustic market.

但我們對苛性鹼市場的長期供需基本面感到非常良好。

So I think it's conservative, but we still feel really good about the forward years.

所以我認為這是保守的，但我們仍然對未來感覺很好。

Just to add one thing on.

只是添加一件事。

As we've made a few adjustments to the 2022 cash flow outlook, because we wanted to keep it current, and that was one of the items that we were more conservative on caustic prices as well as sulfur, which affects the Midstream business.

我們對 2022 年現金流前景進行了一些調整，因為我們希望保持最新，這是我們對苛性鹼價格和硫磺價格更保守的項目之一，這會影響中游業務。

The combined effect of that is a deduct of about $150 million versus what we showed in 2022 versus what we showed you in the third quarter.

與我們在 2022 年向您展示的內容相比，我們在第三季向您展示的內容相比，其綜合影響是減少了約 1.5 億美元。

We also had a deduct of a $250 million related to the lower production associated with a lower capital spend in 2019 and less of a ramp in 2020.

我們也扣除了 2.5 億美元，因為 2019 年資本支出減少導致產量下降，以及 2020 年產量成長減少。

So that caused some confusion also last night, we didn't intend for that.

所以昨晚這也造成了一些混亂，我們不是故意的。

We felt we laid it out, but just to clarify, so that's $400 million combined, which more than offset the $150 million pick up you have from the $5 increase in the Brent price differential versus last quarter.

我們認為我們已將其列出，但只是為了澄清，所以總計為 4 億美元，這遠遠抵消了布蘭特原油價差較上季度增加 5 美元而帶來的 1.5 億美元的回升。

So just trying to bring it kind of current with current thinking, so it's not stale, but that's where we kind of move from the midpoint of $9.25 billion last quarter to the $9.0 billion this quarter.

因此，我們只是試圖將其與當前的想法結合起來，這樣它就不會過時，但這就是我們從上個季度 92.5 億美元的中點移動到本季 90 億美元的地方。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Last question for Vicki, you just made a comment in your prepared remarks about a 20% base decline rate, and that it was higher than in the past.

問 Vicki 的最後一個問題，您剛剛在準備好的發言中評論了 20% 的基本下降率，並且比過去更高。

So I just wanted to understand that comment a little bit more, what would you have said it was in the past?

所以我只是想多了解一下這個評論，你會說它在過去是什麼？

And I guess, just because Permian is only 1/3 of the production at this point, so it just sounded a little bit high to me, but just any additional detail behind that would be helpful.

我想，因為二疊紀目前僅佔產量的 1/3，所以對我來說聽起來有點高，但背後的任何其他細節都會有所幫助。

In the past, we were traditionally running at a little bit less than 10%.

過去，我們傳統上的運行速度略低於 10%。

And so the increase in the Permian has gotten us to -- will have us by the end of this year to around 20%.

因此，二疊紀盆地的增加將讓我們在今年年底達到 20% 左右。

But it's important to think about the strength of our chemicals business in this sort of environment is that, when you think about our overall cash flow decline, that's really only about 15%.

但重要的是要考慮我們化學品業務在這種環境下的實力，當你考慮到我們的整體現金流下降時，實際上只有 15% 左右。

So the 20% decline in the oil and gas business is not alarming, although the international assets, as we develop those, that will somewhat mitigate that decline.

因此，石油和天然氣業務下降 ​​20% 並不令人擔憂，儘管我們開發的國際資產將在一定程度上緩解這種下降。

And the next question comes from Philip Jungwirth of BMO Capital Market.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Philip Jungwirth。

I was just hoping you can fill a little more color around the 6% international production CAGR, key drivers, and then really just the progression of that growth over the next couple years, because when we look at the 2019 guidance, it looks like you're budgeting around $800 million of CapEx flat year-on-year production.

我只是希望您能圍繞 6% 的國際產量複合年增長率、關鍵驅動因素以及未來幾年的增長進程提供更多信息，因為當我們查看 2019 年的指導時，您會發現預計資本支出同比產量持平，約為8 億美元。

So does -- really, either capital efficiency improved?

那麼，資本效率真的提高了嗎？

Or is it more about increasing the level of investment?

還是更多的是為了提高投資水準？

It's Ken here.

這是肯。

As I mentioned earlier, in terms of capital efficiency, our drilling performances improved beyond measure over the last few years.

正如我之前提到的，就資本效率而言，我們的鑽井績效在過去幾年中得到了難以估量的改善。

So we're able to drill many more wells neither than we could, say, just 3 or 4 years ago.

因此，我們能夠鑽探的井比三、四年前多得多。

In terms of the road map on Slide 7, we basically have a large portfolio of opportunities going forward.

就投影片 7 中的路線圖而言，我們基本上有大量的未來機會。

We have milestones associated with Colombia, the TECA development and the new blocks.

我們擁有與哥倫比亞、TECA 開發和新區塊相關的里程碑。

If you look at it, it states through year by year, each of these plans will be optimized over time so that we can maximize the returns of every one of these streams.

如果你看一下它，它會逐年說明，每個計劃都將隨著時間的推移進行優化，以便我們可以最大化每個流的回報。

So we feel comfortable in reaching the 6% with the portfolio that we show here.

因此，我們對此處展示的投資組合達到 6% 感到放心。

We haven't talked about Al Hosn debottlenecking, we see opportunities there, and we see great well performance and also our new geological and petrophysical model so that we have additional gas there, to enable that to be further debottlenecked.

我們還沒有談論 Al Hosn 消除瓶頸，我們看到了那裡的機會，我們看到了良好的油井性能以及我們新的地質和石油物理模型，以便我們在那裡擁有額外的天然氣，從而能夠進一步消除瓶頸。

And then on Slide 6, where you lay out the facilities investment at 24% of the 2019 program, I was wondering if you could just isolate that to the Permian Resources as a percent of the $2.6 billion capital budget, and then also how that would trend over time?

然後在投影片 6 中，您將設施投資列為 2019 年計畫的 24%，我想知道您是否可以將其單獨作為二疊紀資源項目的 26 億美元資本預算的百分比，然後還有這將如何隨著時間的推移趨勢？

And maybe provide some color around just operating cost benefits of that facilities investment?

也許可以提供一些有關該設施投資的營運成本效益的資訊？

Sure, Phil, this is Jeff.

當然，菲爾，這是傑夫。

So for 2019, it's around 21% facilities, and I'll cavy that, when we do our OBO we exclude that, but they also have the facilities component to it.

因此，2019 年，設施比例約為 21%，我要指出的是，當我們進行 OBO 時，我們將其排除在外，但他們也有設施組成部分。

So if you're looking at it from a pure standpoint, you'd probably lump that in.

因此，如果您從純粹的角度來看它，您可能會將其歸為一類。

But of the $2.6 billion, it's about 21% is facilities.

但在 26 億美元中，大約 21% 是設施。

And you brought up one of the most important things, not just from a productivity standpoint, but that really helps drive full cycle cost, which shows up in operating cost.

您提出了最重要的事情之一，不僅僅是從生產力的角度來看，而且這確實有助於提高全週期成本，這體現在營運成本中。

So when you look at our operating cost, us able to get down into the mid- to low-6s is really where you see the benefits of that.

因此，當您查看我們的營運成本時，您會發現我們能夠將成本降至 6 左右，這確實是您看到的好處。

You also see it from a productivity standpoint, it's harder to measure, but just from an uptime standpoint and the ability to handle the production reliability, it shows up there as well.

您還可以從生產力的角度來看它，它更難衡量，但僅從正常運行時間和處理生產可靠性的能力的角度來看，它也顯示在那裡。

So from a long-term standpoint, we look at most of our field development plans, we expect to get, on average, below 10%.

因此，從長遠角度來看，我們審視了大部分油田開發計劃，預計平均收益將低於 10%。

So if you go and look at our more mature areas like in the Midland Basin, where we have the infrastructure developed, and you look at the new developments there, we're below 10%.

因此，如果你去看看我們更成熟的地區，例如米德蘭盆地，我們在那裡開發了基礎設施，你看看那裡的新開發項目，我們低於 10%。

So we expect to get there in the not-too-distant future from a total facility spend.

因此，我們預期在不遠的將來，設施總支出就能實現這一目標。

Your next question comes from Paul Cheng of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Just couple of quick questions.

只是幾個簡單的問題。

On the rate given, you're talking about the 24% on average per year growth in the Permian Resource.

根據給出的成長率，您談論的是二疊紀資源的年均成長率 24%。

Can you get a number there for 2020 to '22, what is your return per well productivity improvement that you assume comparing to 2018 or 2019?

您能提供 2020 年至 22 年的數字嗎？

And also, what is the technical assumption as far as the base decline curve?

另外，基本下降曲線的技術假設是什麼？

Sure, so Paul, what we said last year, so 24% CAGR, 4-year CAGR, this year, it will be 30% to 35%.

當然，保羅，我們去年說過，複合年增長率為 24%，4 年複合年增長率，今年將是 30% 到 35%。

So obviously, that number is coming down as the base grows.

顯然，隨著基數的成長，這個數字正在下降。

And so the way I think about it, when we originally rolled that out, we said capital would be roughly flat, with where we were last year, which was around $2.8 billion.

因此，我的想法是，當我們最初推出該計劃時，我們表示資本將與去年大致持平，約 28 億美元。

And so what's going on when you do that, it goes back to the question Phil asked is you actually -- we're running say 12 or 13 rigs at that pace.

所以當你這樣做時會發生什麼，這又回到了菲爾問的問題，你實際上是——我們正在以這樣的速度運行 12 或 13 台鑽機。

But as you spend less on facilities, you're able to dedicate more of that capital and to drilling wells.

但隨著您在設施上的支出減少，您就可以將更多的資金投入鑽井。

So just easy math, these aren't exact numbers, because we'll factor in with working interest and other things, but facilities goes from 20% to less than 10%, that could add a couple operated rigs to that are generating production growth instead of being spent on facilities.

所以只是簡單的數學計算，這些不是精確的數字，因為我們會考慮工作興趣和其他因素，但設施從 20% 降至不到 10%，這可能會增加一些正在運行的鑽機，從而產生產量增長而不是花在設施上。

So you're basically looking at 14, 15 rigs.

所以你基本上會考慮 14、15 台鑽孔機。

And in the base assumption, what kind of productivity improvement on the well production?

在基本假設下，油井產量有什麼樣的產能提高？

Yes, that's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

So hopefully you've heard with our long-term forecast, we always want to make sure we can deliver our long-term forecast.

因此，希望您已經聽說過我們的長期預測，我們始終希望確保我們能夠實現長期預測。

So when it comes to productivity improvements, we've assumed almost 0. I think we had like 1% in some areas for productivity improvements.

因此，當談到生產力提高時，我們假設幾乎為 0。

When I just referenced the slide that shows 25% improvements in the last year, 20% improvement in the year before that and so on.

當我剛剛引用的幻燈片顯示去年提高了 25%，前年提高了 20% 等等。

So we've been really conservative with productivity improvements and how we've built that into the plan.

因此，我們對於生產力的提高以及如何將其納入計劃一直非常保守。

So it's almost 0. But we had some areas that were new from an appraisal standpoint, so they have some uptick in them.

所以幾乎是 0。

But it's small in a global scale.

但在全球範圍內還很小。

And just a clarification, Jeff, you earlier mentioned in your prepared remarks saying that in 5-year's time that this will be over 600,000 boe per day.

Jeff，請澄清一下，您之前在準備好的演講中提到，5 年後，每天的產量將超過 60 萬桶油當量。

Are you talking about just the Permian Resource or Permian Resources plus EOR?

您是指僅二疊紀資源還是二疊紀資源加 EOR？

Yes, that's just Permian Resources.

是的，這只是二疊紀資源。

Just Permian Resources, okay.

只是二疊紀資源，好。

Correct.

正確的。

So that excludes EOR, obviously.

顯然，這不包括 EOR。

I've got a final question, that I think Vicki was talking about, you guys have done a number of piloting on the CO2 as well as using the hydrocarbon.

我有最後一個問題，我想 Vicki 正在談論這個問題，你們已經對二氧化碳以及碳氫化合物進行了多次試驗。

Have you so far seen any distinct pattern, certain type of characteristics of the reservoirs, where it would better respond to certain to CO2 flooding than the other one, is there anything that you can share?

到目前為止，您是否看到水庫的任何獨特模式、某些類型的特徵，與其他模式相比，它對某些二氧化碳驅油的反應更好，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？

And how widespread is that application could be?

該應用的廣泛程度如何？

Yes, nothing meaningfully that we can share, but you're right.

是的，我們沒有什麼可以分享的，但你是對的。

I mean different reservoir characteristics will be more conducive to hydrocarbon gas versus CO2, and I'd say, you can look at, in a conventional world, many of the same principles will apply with miscibility depth, pressures, temperature, all of those things.

我的意思是，不同的儲層特徵將更有利於碳氫化合物氣體而不是二氧化碳，我想說，你可以看看，在傳統世界中，許多相同的原理將適用於混合深度、壓力、溫度，所有這些因素。

And so as Vicki said, we're really comfortable now from a technical standpoint that we know with the EOR, hydrocarbon gas and CO2 through the different reservoirs, we can get more oil.

正如 Vicki 所說，從技術角度來看，我們現在真的很放心，我們知道透過不同油藏的 EOR、碳氫化合物氣體和二氧化碳，我們可以獲得更多石油。

And actually is better technically than what we thought.

實際上技術上比我們想像的要好。

The real challenge is from a commerciality standpoint, what do patterns look like, how do you design them and how do you handle the gas processing, all of those things, that's where the real challenge lies, and that's why we're focused on proving that commerciality.

真正的挑戰是從商業角度來看，模式是什麼樣的，如何設計它們以及如何處理氣體處理，所有這些都是真正的挑戰所在，這就是為什麼我們專注於證明那種商業性。

But you will see differentiation based on reservoir characteristics, not that different than what you see in the conventional reservoirs.

但您會看到基於儲層特徵的差異，與您在常規儲層中看到的沒有太大不同。

And when will you guys will be in a position that you maybe share more of the data?

你們什麼時候才能分享更多數據？

I would expect late this year, we'll share more of that.

我預計今年晚些時候，我們將分享更多內容。

And the next question comes from John Herrlin with Soci�t� G�n�rale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的約翰‧赫林 (John Herrlin)。

With respect to your CapEx budget, what kind of labor or oil field services inflation costs are you baking in for this year?

就您的資本支出預算而言，今年您預計會面臨什麼樣的勞動力或油田服務通膨成本？

We are baking in about 4%.

我們烘焙的比例約為 4%。

4% domestically, but internationally, we're not seeing the kind of inflation that we're seeing domestically.

國內通膨率為 4%，但在國際上，我們並沒有看到國內那樣的通膨。

Internationally, we're seeing, in the last 16 contracts we did we've seen a 4.1% deflation.

在國際上，我們看到，在我們簽訂的過去 16 份合約中，通貨緊縮率為 4.1%。

And if we focus only on the sort of major suppliers, what we're seeing is a 16% reduction internationally.

如果我們只專注於主要供應商的類型，我們會看到國際範圍內減少了 16%。

Then my next question is regarding international puds, you had some good growth in Colombia and also MENA, was that all just drilling-program related?

那麼我的下一個問題是關於國際鑽井，你們在哥倫比亞和中東和北非地區都有良好的成長，這一切都只是與鑽井計畫有關嗎？

I think it's combination of drilling, also some of the reservoir characterization work we're seeing, and overall just really good performance.

我認為這是鑽井的結合，也是我們所看到的一些儲層表徵工作的結合，整體來說表現非常好。

I don't see anything -- one individual thing, it's just a collective of individual activities across the whole international.

我沒有看到任何事情——一件個人的事情，這只是整個國際範圍內個人活動的集合。

Okay, and the last one for me is on Permian Resources.

好的，我的最後一篇文章是關於二疊紀資源的。

Earlier, it was mentioned that you haven't had sort of parent-child relationships that some of your peers have.

早些時候，有人提到你沒有像你的一些同齡人那樣擁有某種親子關係。

Have you changed your spacing design plans in your core areas?

您是否改變了核心區域的間距設計方案？

Or is it very petrophysically specific.

或者它在岩石物理上非常具體。

Yes.

是的。

I think it's very petrophysically specific.

我認為這在岩石物理學上非常具體。

So if you look at our core areas, they may vary from 3 well spacing to 6 or 7, is where they are.

因此，如果您查看我們的核心區域，它們的井距可能從 3 到 6 或 7 不等，這就是它們所在的位置。

And one of the numbers we've given are less than 50 inventory, we average about 4.7.

我們給出的數字之一是庫存少於 50 個，我們平均約為 4.7 個。

So I'd say significantly lower than many others.

所以我想說明顯低於其他許多人。

But again, we're getting really, really good performance.

但我們再次獲得了非常非常好的表現。

So that comes out there but that's one of the variables that we continually update and modify and I think we mentioned an example in Texas Delaware where now we're doing more of a chevron design in developing kind of 2 benches almost together, and the implications of that are really good well performance and you are able to remove a well and get better performance when you combine those 2 together.

所以這是我們不斷更新和修改的變數之一，我想我們提到了德克薩斯州特拉華州的一個例子，現在我們正在做更多的V 形設計，幾乎一起開發2 個長凳，其含義其中非常好的井性能，當您將這兩個井結合在一起時，您可以移除井並獲得更好的性能。

So it's one of the variables we turn all the time, but I would say, when you mentioned the parent-child we're not unique.

所以這是我們一直在改變的變數之一，但我想說，當你提到父子關係時，我們並不是獨一無二的。

That relationship exists.

這種關係是存在的。

I would say we've just figured out how to manage it optimally from a net present value standpoint and not just try to drive up inventory.

我想說，我們剛剛弄清楚如何從淨現值的角度對其進行最佳管理，而不僅僅是試圖增加庫存。

Next we have a question from Leo Mariani of KeyBanc.

接下來我們有來自 KeyBanc 的 Leo Mariani 的問題。

I just wanted to touch quickly on the EOR business.

我只是想快速談一下 EOR 業務。

Obviously, you guys have put some longer term growth rates between 2018 to 2022 for Permian Resources and International.

顯然，你們已經為二疊紀資源和國際公司製定了 2018 年至 2022 年的一些長期成長率。

Just want to get a sense of how does that EOR business play out in that outlook?

只是想了解 EOR 業務在這種前景下的表現如何？

Is it little flattish with sort of cost reductions?

成本降低後是不是有點平淡？

Or how do we think about that production stream?

或者我們如何看待該生產流程？

It has very minimal growth.

它的增長非常小。

It's on the order of 1% CAGR over that time period.

在此期間，複合年增長率約為 1%。

So we continue -- as we show, we have tons of inventory for further EOR projects, so we continue to prosecute that.

所以我們繼續——正如我們所展示的，我們有大量庫存用於進一步的 EOR 項目，所以我們繼續進行。

But we need more inject than other things, so its CAGR is around 1%.

但我們需要比其他東西更多的注入，所以它的複合年增長率在 1% 左右。

One thing I'd add to that is, if you had noticed when we created the low carbon ventures group last year, we've got some milestones listed in that area too.

我要補充的一件事是，如果您注意到去年我們創建低碳創投集團時，我們也在該領域列出了一些里程碑。

It's not reflected in the 2022 outlook, but it is certainly an area that we like to make great progress and develop.

這並沒有反映在 2022 年的展望中，但它肯定是我們希望取得巨大進步和發展的領域。

And as Jeff mentioned, we have a lot of running room to go in terms of EOR projects, if we could just get more CO2.

正如傑夫所提到的，如果我們能夠獲得更多的二氧化碳，我們在 EOR 專案方面還有很大的運行空間。

It's kind of an irony in today's world, where most people want to eliminate CO2 emissions, and we just can't get enough CO2 commercially to our locations.

在當今世界，這有點諷刺，大多數人都希望消除二氧化碳排放，而我們無法將足夠的二氧化碳輸送到我們的工廠。

And it's an area we're focused on.

這是我們關注的一個領域。

Yes, the bottom line is that, that's another potential upside for our 2022 plan.

是的，最重要的是，這是我們 2022 年計畫的另一個潛在好處。

Okay.

好的。

And just shifting gears over to the new block you picked up in UAE there.

只需將齒輪切換到您在阿聯酋獲得的新區塊即可。

You sort of talked about a plethora of prospects over there.

你談到了那裡的大量前景。

Presumably, is most of the activity going to be focused on oil over the next couple of years, obviously, you're neighboring Al Hosn block there is more gassy, can you just give us any color on what you're targeting?

據推測，未來幾年的大部分活動將集中在石油上，顯然，您鄰近的 Al Hosn 區塊有更多的天然氣，您能否告訴我們您的目標是什麼？

Yes, it's mainly oil we are targeting, as I mentioned earlier, between the Super Giant fields in Abu Dhabi and the prolific fields in Oman, we're focused mainly in oil.

是的，正如我之前提到的，我們的目標主要是石油，在阿布達比的超級巨型油田和阿曼的多產油田之間，我們主要關注石油。

In the interest of time, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

由於時間關係，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Vicki Hollub for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回 Vicki Hollub 進行閉幕致詞。

I want to thank you all for your questions, and have a good day.

我想感謝大家提出的問題，祝你有美好的一天。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Bye.

再見。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。