西方石油 (OXY) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Occidental Petroleum Corporation Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎來到西方石油公司 2018 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Alvarez, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Alvarez。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea.

謝謝你，安德里亞。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental Petroleum's Third Quarter 2018 Conference Call.

大家早上好，感謝您參加西方石油公司 2018 年第三季度電話會議。

On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Cedric Burgher, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Ken Dillon, President, International Oil and Gas Operations; and BJ Hebert, President of OxyChem.

今天與我們通話的有總裁兼首席執行官 Vicki Hollub； Cedric Burgher，高級副總裁兼首席財務官；國際石油和天然氣業務總裁 Ken Dillon；和 OxyChem 總裁 BJ Hebert。

In just a moment, I will turn the call over to Vicki.

稍後，我會將電話轉給 Vicki。

As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議包含聯邦證券法含義內的某些預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements as more fully described in our cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements on Slide 2. Our earnings press release, the Investor Relations supplemental schedules and our non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations and the conference call presentation slides can be downloaded off our website at www.oxy.com.

這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，正如我們在幻燈片 2 中關於前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明中更全面地描述的那樣。我們的收益新聞稿，投資者關係補充時間表和我們的非 GAAP 到 GAAP 調節和電話會議演示幻燈片可以從我們的網站 www.oxy.com 下載。

I'll now turn the call over to Vicki.

我現在將電話轉給 Vicki。

Vicki, please go ahead.

薇琪，請繼續。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早上好。

Today, I'd like to begin by highlighting the results we've achieved over the last 12 months, during which our focus on value growth and our high-quality assets delivered a cash return on capital employed by 26%.

今天，我想首先強調我們在過去 12 個月中取得的成果，在此期間，我們專注於價值增長和優質資產，實現了 26% 的已動用資本現金回報率。

Combined with a double-digit return on capital employed over the same period, we have clearly demonstrated our ability to deliver industry-leading returns.

結合同期兩位數的資本回報率，我們清楚地展示了我們提供行業領先回報的能力。

We have aligned our executive compensation to this principle.

我們根據這一原則調整了高管薪酬。

Our integrated business model provides us with numerous opportunities in which to invest and grow free cash flow in a sustainable manner well into the future.

我們的綜合業務模式為我們提供了眾多機會，可以在未來以可持續的方式投資和增加自由現金流。

We remain disciplined, and we'll continue to allocate capital to investments that generate the highest returns for our shareholders.

我們保持紀律，我們將繼續將資本分配給能為我們的股東帶來最高回報的投資。

This approach enabled us to deliver $3.3 billion of cash to shareholders over the last year through a combination of our dividend and share repurchases while also growing production by 14%.

這種方法使我們能夠在去年通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向股東交付 33 億美元現金，同時產量也增長了 14%。

This morning, Cedric will walk you through our financial results and updated guidance.

今天早上，塞德里克將向您介紹我們的財務結果和更新的指導意見。

Jeff will detail the sustainable and value-creating improvements we continue to create in the Permian.

傑夫將詳細介紹我們在二疊紀繼續創造的可持續和創造價值的改進。

And prior to leading our Investor Relations, I just want to let you know that Jeff served as President and General Manager for 2 of our resources business units: Texas Delaware and Midland Basin.

在領導我們的投資者關係之前，我只想告訴你，傑夫曾擔任我們兩個資源業務部門的總裁兼總經理：德克薩斯特拉華州和米德蘭盆地。

He also has significant prior experience in our enhanced oil recovery businesses.

他在我們提高石油採收率業務方面也擁有豐富的經驗。

After Jeff, Ken will provide an update on operations and opportunities in our international businesses.

在 Jeff 之後，Ken 將提供有關我們國際業務運營和機會的最新信息。

Before covering our third quarter highlights, I would like to mention an organizational update and congratulate Jeff Bennett and Barbara Bergersen.

在介紹我們第三季度的亮點之前，我想提一下組織更新並祝賀 Jeff Bennett 和 Barbara Bergersen。

They have recently taken on heightened roles within our domestic oil and gas business.

他們最近在我們的國內石油和天然氣業務中扮演了更重要的角色。

Jeff is leading our 3 Permian business units.

Jeff 領導著我們的 3 個二疊紀業務部門。

Those are the Midland Basin, Texas Delaware and Southeastern Mexico.

這些是米德蘭盆地、得克薩斯特拉華州和墨西哥東南部。

And Barb is leading our Permian Enhanced Oil Recovery business.

Barb 領導著我們的二疊紀強化採油業務。

I'd also like to congratulate Richard Jackson in his new role, which includes leading our new Low Carbon Ventures team, along with our Permian competitor analysis, land and regulatory teams.

我還要祝賀理查德傑克遜擔任新職務，其中包括領導我們新的低碳風險投資團隊，以及我們的二疊紀競爭對手分析、土地和監管團隊。

The Low Carbon Ventures team will work across all of our businesses.

Low Carbon Ventures 團隊將在我們的所有業務中開展工作。

These changes will enable us to focus more intentionally on the Permian and to develop unique corporate strategies that address the key challenges facing our industry.

這些變化將使我們能夠更加專注於二疊紀，並製定獨特的企業戰略來應對我們行業面臨的主要挑戰。

As noted on Slide 5, we delivered an exceptional quarter, both financially and operationally.

正如幻燈片 5 中所述，我們在財務和運營方面都取得了出色的成績。

Our operating cash flow of $2.6 billion exceeded capital and dividends by $700 million.

我們 26 億美元的經營現金流超過資本和股息 7 億美元。

And during the third quarter, we returned $1.5 billion to our shareholders.

第三季度，我們向股東返還了 15 億美元。

Our earnings per share of $1.77 is the highest quarterly EPS we have achieved since the second quarter of 2014 when the average WTI oil price was over $100.

我們的每股收益為 1.77 美元，是自 2014 年第二季度以來的最高季度每股收益，當時 WTI 油價平均超過 100 美元。

All of our business segments exceeded key performance targets through production growth in the most profitable areas, lower unit cost and better price realizations.

我們所有的業務部門都通過在最有利可圖的領域實現產量增長、降低單位成本和更好的價格實現而超額完成了關鍵績效目標。

In Permian Resources, we brought our best well to date online in the Greater Sand Dunes area.

在 Permian Resources，我們在 Greater Sand Dunes 地區帶來了迄今為止最好的在線井。

And in Barilla Draw, we brought online the best Texas Permian well to date for the industry.

在 Barilla Draw 中，我們為該行業帶來了迄今為止最好的德克薩斯二疊紀井。

These achievements were made possible through the investments we've made in our people and the advances they have achieved in subsurface modeling and characterization.

這些成就是通過我們對員工的投資以及他們在地下建模和表徵方面取得的進步而實現的。

In Oman, we have 3 new blocks that will provide us long-term, short-cycle, lower decline gross opportunities.

在阿曼，我們有 3 個新區塊，它們將為我們提供長期、短期、下降幅度較小的機會。

Ken will provide additional information on these later in the presentation.

Ken 將在稍後的演示中提供有關這些的更多信息。

Our Chemical segment produced another record quarter of earnings as a result of our integrated business model, which allows us to take full advantage of favorable market conditions.

由於我們的綜合業務模式，我們的化學部門創造了另一個創紀錄的季度收益，這使我們能夠充分利用有利的市場條件。

Our midstream and marketing business continues to deliver higher realizations from our advantage Permian takeaway position.

我們的中游和營銷業務繼續從我們的二疊紀外賣優勢地位中獲得更高的實現。

And as expected, we closed on a previously announced $2.6 billion midstream transactions.

正如預期的那樣，我們完成了先前宣布的 26 億美元的中游交易。

Our priority continues to be the allocation of free cash flow towards investments that generate the highest returns, along with returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases.

我們的首要任務仍然是將自由現金流分配給產生最高回報的投資，同時通過我們的股息和股票回購向股東返還現金。

This includes investing in high-return assets across our integrated businesses.

這包括在我們的綜合業務中投資於高回報資產。

With the additional 3 blocks in Oman and new opportunities in Colombia, we now have an even larger inventory of short-cycle, high-return, long-term growth options in our oil and gas business.

隨著阿曼新增的 3 個區塊和哥倫比亞的新機遇，我們現在在石油和天然氣業務中擁有更多的短週期、高回報、長期增長選擇。

Oxy approaches each opportunity we consider with a disciplined focus on returns.

Oxy 對待我們考慮的每一個機會都嚴格關注回報。

Every project must create value for our shareholders, period.

每個項目都必須為我們的股東創造價值。

This is one of our core principles.

這是我們的核心原則之一。

Our priority now is to replace the cash flow from ISND, and we're confident we'll do so in 2020, both from our ongoing development program and reallocation of capital from the North Dome.

我們現在的首要任務是取代 ISND 的現金流，我們有信心在 2020 年通過我們正在進行的開發計劃和北穹頂的資本重新分配來實現這一目標。

We will invest in our highest-return projects with Permian Resources serving as the returns benchmark.

我們將以 Permian Resources 作為回報基準投資於我們回報最高的項目。

Slide 6 shows the depth of opportunities across our portfolio from which we grow our high-return cash flow.

幻燈片 6 顯示了我們投資組合中的機會深度，我們從中增加了高回報現金流。

Our integrated business provides domestic and international, conventional and unconventional opportunities from which to grow value from our oil and gas production, and our Chemical segment also has opportunities to grow cash flow.

我們的綜合業務提供國內和國際、常規和非常規機會，從中增加我們的石油和天然氣生產的價值，我們的化工部門也有增加現金流的機會。

As we communicated our plan for 2019, we'll provide further details of our capital allocation.

在我們傳達 2019 年計劃時，我們將提供有關資本配置的更多詳細信息。

Looking past next year, we will continue to focus on our highest-return opportunities and expect to increase cash flow to between $9 billion and $9.5 billion by 2022, as shown on Slide 7. This level of cash flow is achievable through investments in short-cycle, high-return projects and is sustainable with an annual capital investment of $5 billion to $5.3 billion in a $60 price environment.

展望明年，我們將繼續關注回報率最高的機會，並預計到 2022 年將現金流量增加到 90 億至 95 億美元之間，如幻燈片 7 所示。這一現金流量水平可以通過短期投資來實現週期、高回報項目，並且在 60 美元的價格環境下，每年的資本投資為 50 億至 53 億美元，是可持續的。

We will deliver higher rates of production growth in 2018 and 2019 to replace the cash flow from ISND in 2020 and to return to a higher dividend growth, but our long-term production growth target remains at 5% to 8-plus percent.

我們將在 2018 年和 2019 年實現更高的產量增長率，以取代 2020 年 ISND 的現金流，並恢復更高的股息增長，但我們的長期產量增長目標仍為 5% 至 8% 以上。

Before I turn the call over to Cedric, I want to talk about what discipline means to Oxy.

在我把電話轉給 Cedric 之前，我想談談紀律對 Oxy 意味著什麼。

We have honored our commitment to shareholders by returning capital, and we'll continue to do so.

我們通過返還資本履行了對股東的承諾，我們將繼續這樣做。

We're one of only a few companies in our sector that did not cut our dividend in the downturn or dilute our shareholders.

我們是我們行業中為數不多的幾家沒有在經濟低迷時期削減股息或稀釋股東權益的公司之一。

We continue to increase our dividend and plan to return to more meaningful growth in the future, which is one of the key reasons we're investing in our highest-return assets so that we can increase cash flow and return more cash flow to shareholders.

我們繼續增加股息，併計劃在未來恢復更有意義的增長，這是我們投資回報率最高的資產的關鍵原因之一，這樣我們就可以增加現金流並向股東返還更多的現金流。

As shown on Slide 8, we've increased our dividend each year since 2002 and repurchased a significant number of shares in a higher oil price environment.

如幻燈片 8 所示，自 2002 年以來，我們每年都增加股息，並在油價上漲的環境下回購大量股票。

Also since 2006, we have returned a total of $31 billion or over half of our current market cap to shareholders.

同樣自 2006 年以來，我們已向股東返還總計 310 億美元，即我們目前市值的一半以上。

Returning capital to shareholders via our dividend and share repurchases is not new to us and will continue to be a key part of the value we provide.

通過我們的股息和股票回購向股東返還資本對我們來說並不新鮮，並將繼續成為我們提供的價值的關鍵部分。

I'll now hand the call over to Cedric.

我現在將電話轉給 Cedric。

Thanks, Vicki.

謝謝，趙薇。

As Vicki highlighted, we are pleased to have continued repurchasing shares, allowing us to return $1.5 billion of cash to shareholders during the quarter.

正如 Vicki 強調的那樣，我們很高興繼續回購股票，使我們能夠在本季度向股東返還 15 億美元現金。

On Slide 10, I'd like to start with our earnings, which improved across all segments, with our third quarter reported earnings per share at $2.44 and core EPS at $1.77 per diluted share.

在幻燈片 10 上，我想從我們的收益開始，所有部門的收益都有所改善，我們第三季度報告的每股收益為 2.44 美元，核心每股收益為每股攤薄收益 1.77 美元。

The main difference between reported and core income is the gain on sale of our non-core domestic midstream assets, which resulted in an after-tax gain of approximately $700 million.

報告收入和核心收入之間的主要區別是我們出售非核心國內中游資產的收益，這導致了大約 7 億美元的稅後收益。

Improvements in the oil and gas segment income were mainly attributed to higher Permian Resources production and Middle East oil sales volumes.

石油和天然氣部門收入的改善主要歸因於二疊紀資源產量和中東石油銷量的增加。

Third quarter realized oil prices were approximately flat compared to the second quarter.

第三季度實現的油價與第二季度相比基本持平。

Total reported production for the third quarter was 681,000 BOEs a day, coming in above the midpoint of our guidance.

第三季度報告的總產量為每天 681,000 桶油當量，高於我們指引的中點。

This was driven by strong execution and well productivity in Permian Resources, which came in at the top end of the guidance range at 225,000 BOEs per day, representing a year-over-year increase of over 60%.

這是由 Permian Resources 強大的執行力和良好的生產率推動的，Permian Resources 以每天 225,000 桶石油當量進入指導範圍的高端，同比增長超過 60%。

Total international production came in at 297,000 BOEs a day, which is at the midpoint of our guidance.

國際總產量為每天 297,000 桶油當量，處於我們指引的中點。

The increase in international production from the second quarter reflected the first full quarter following the successful debottlenecking and expansion of capacity at Al Hosn.

第二季度國際產量的增加反映了 Al Hosn 成功消除瓶頸和擴大產能後的第一個完整季度。

The Chemical segment had another quarter of record earnings.

化工部門又創下了創紀錄的季度收益。

Chemical pretax income for the third quarter was $321 million, which came in above guidance of $315 million.

第三季度化學品稅前收入為 3.21 億美元，高於預期的 3.15 億美元。

Compared to the second quarter of 2018 earnings of $317 million, third quarter earnings were relatively flat as vinyl margins came under pressure from higher ethylene costs, resulting in increased ethylene costs.

與 2018 年第二季度 3.17 億美元的收益相比，第三季度收益相對持平，因為乙烯基利潤率受到乙烯成本上漲的壓力，導致乙烯成本增加。

Export caustic soda demand helped offset the decline in vinyl margins.

出口燒鹼需求幫助抵消了乙烯基利潤率的下降。

Midstream core earnings of $796 million reflected improved marketing margins due to an increase in the Midland-to-MEH differential from $7.86 to $16.67 quarter-over-quarter and exceeded the high end of our guidance due to the mark-to-market improvements, stronger gas processing results driven by higher NGL prices and one-off items from the midstream transaction that closed in the quarter.

中游核心收益為 7.96 億美元，反映出營銷利潤率有所提高，這是由於 Midland 與 MEH 的差異從上一季度的 7.86 美元增加到 16.67 美元，並且由於按市值計價的改進而超過了我們指導的高端，更強NGL 價格上漲和本季度完成的中游交易的一次性項目推動了天然氣加工業績。

Third quarter revenue and cost of sales were both grossed up by $327 million due to the accounting related to certain midstream contracts where we've used our excess takeaway capacity by purchasing and reselling third-party barrels.

由於與某些中游合同相關的會計核算，我們通過購買和轉售第三方桶來使用我們的過剩外賣能力，第三季度收入和銷售成本均增加了 3.27 億美元。

The second quarter gross up amount was $85 million.

第二季度總收入為 8500 萬美元。

Operating cash flow before working capital improved to nearly $2.6 billion as all of our segments continued to outperform cash flow expectations, representing year-on-year growth of 136%.

由於我們所有業務部門的現金流繼續超出預期，同比增長 136%，因此營運資本前的運營現金流增加至近 26 億美元。

We spent $1.3 billion in capital during the quarter, and our total year capital budget remains at $5 billion.

我們在本季度花費了 13 億美元的資本，而我們全年的資本預算總額仍為 50 億美元。

Starting in 2019, we will begin to redeploy approximately $200 million of capital per year that would have been invested in Qatar.

從 2019 年開始，我們將開始重新部署每年約 2 億美元的本應投資於卡塔爾的資金。

Slide 11 details our updated guidance, which we have narrowed for the full year.

幻燈片 11 詳細介紹了我們更新後的指南，我們已經縮小了全年的範圍。

We expect total production for 2018 to be 655,000 to 659,000 BOEs per day and Permian Resources production to be 211,000 to 213,000 BOEs per day.

我們預計 2018 年的總產量為每天 655,000 至 659,000 桶油當量，Permian Resources 的產量為每天 211,000 至 213,000 桶桶油當量。

The midpoint of this range equates to an exit-to-exit Permian Resources production growth rate of 54% from Q4 2017 to Q4 2018.

該範圍的中點相當於二疊紀資源從 2017 年第四季度到 2018 年第四季度的產量增長率為 54%。

We have also narrowed our international production guidance range to 286,000 BOEs to 287,000 BOEs and assuming a $75 per barrel Brent pricing for the remainder of the year.

我們還將國際產量指導範圍縮小至 286,000 桶油當量至 287,000 桶桶油當量，並假設今年剩餘時間的布倫特原油價格為每桶 75 美元。

In midstream, we expect the fourth quarter to generate pretax income between $450 million and $550 million, assuming a Midland-to-MEH spread of $13 to $15.

在中游，我們預計第四季度將產生 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元的稅前收入，假設米德蘭與 MEH 的價差為 13 美元至 15 美元。

In our Chemical business, we anticipate fourth quarter pretax earnings of $220 million and are raising the full year guidance to $1.155 million -- billion based on the strong results delivered year-to-date.

在我們的化工業務中，我們預計第四季度稅前收益為 2.2 億美元，並將全年指引提高至 115.5 萬美元——基於今年迄今取得的強勁業績。

To close, we are very pleased with our performance so far this year, including the continuation and expansion of our share repurchase program.

最後，我們對今年迄今為止的表現感到非常滿意，包括繼續和擴大我們的股票回購計劃。

As we have shown, our focus is on returns, and our Permian operations set a very high bar for our company, and frankly, for the industry.

正如我們所展示的那樣，我們的重點是回報，我們在二疊紀的運營為我們公司，坦率地說，為整個行業設定了很高的標準。

We have a pipeline of projects across our integrated business that meet our hurdle rates and that have long-term potential.

我們在我們的綜合業務中擁有一系列項目，這些項目符合我們的最低要求並且具有長期潛力。

We continue to have the discipline to hold of these principles and occasionally take tough decisions.

我們繼續遵守這些原則的紀律，偶爾會做出艱難的決定。

We believe this is what it takes to lead with respect to capital stewardship.

我們相信這就是在資本管理方面發揮領導作用所需要的。

We have aligned compensation in this regard, and we continue to demonstrate our long-time commitment to returns-driven reinvestment, a robust dividend and share repurchases.

我們在這方面調整了薪酬，並繼續展示我們對以回報為導向的再投資、強勁的股息和股票回購的長期承諾。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

我現在將電話轉給傑夫。

Thank you, Cedric.

謝謝你，塞德里克。

Our Permian teams have delivered another great quarter by continuing to find innovative ways to improve and increase the value of our assets, and I'm excited to share these results with you today.

我們的 Permian 團隊通過繼續尋找創新方法來改善和增加我們資產的價值，又創造了一個偉大的季度，我很高興今天能與您分享這些成果。

Production for the quarter was outstanding with Permian Resources exceeding the midpoint of production guidance by 5,000 BOEs per day, continued improvements in well results, along with the great execution of our operational plan, thus resulting in high-value production growth.

本季度的產量非常出色，Permian Resources 每天超過生產指導的中點 5,000 桶油當量，油井業績持續改善，以及我們運營計劃的出色執行，從而實現了高價值的產量增長。

Permian Resources production guidance has now increased by 10,000 BOEs per day from the initial guidance we provided at the beginning of the year.

Permian Resources 的生產指導現在比我們年初提供的初步指導增加了每天 10,000 桶油當量。

These high-margin barrels have generated additional cash and add significant value to the returns of the underlying assets.

這些高利潤桶產生了額外的現金，並為基礎資產的回報增加了顯著價值。

Looking at our highlights on Slide 13, we continued investments in the appraisal program to delineate our acreage and optimize development plans.

查看我們在幻燈片 13 上的亮點，我們繼續投資評估計劃以劃定我們的種植面積並優化開發計劃。

In Greater Barilla Draw, we integrated the results of our Hoban appraisal efforts into our field development plans and expect to be more active in this bench in 2019.

在 Greater Barilla Draw 中，我們將 Hoban 評估工作的結果整合到我們的油田開發計劃中，並期望在 2019 年更加積極地參與此工作。

We also drilled 2 Avalon appraisal wells in Greater Sand Dunes that each averaged approximately 2,700 BOEs per day over 30 days.

我們還在 Greater Sand Dunes 鑽了 2 口 Avalon 評價井，在 30 天內，每口平均每天約 2,700 BOEs。

Our appraisal program continues to provide us confidence that Permian Resources will generate returns and sustainable cash flow growth for many years to come.

我們的評估計劃繼續讓我們相信 Permian Resources 將在未來許多年內產生回報和可持續的現金流增長。

As Vicki mentioned earlier, the third quarter was another record-breaking quarter for well results in both of our core development areas.

正如 Vicki 之前提到的，第三季度是我們兩個核心開發領域取得良好業績的又一個創紀錄的季度。

We've brought online our best Permian Basin well ever.

我們已經將我們最好的二疊紀盆地帶到了網上。

The Corral Fly 21H in Greater Sand Dunes peaked at over 8,900 BOEs per day with an average over 6,700 BOEs per day for 30 days.

Greater Sand Dunes 的 Corral Fly 21H 達到每天 8,900 多個 BOE 的峰值，平均每天超過 6,700 BOE，持續 30 天。

We also broke the industry record for the best well in the Texas Permian Basin with the Greater Barilla Draw well, the Peck 11H, which peaked at over 6,500 BOEs per day and averaged 4,900 BOEs per day over 30 days, a 30% increase over the prior record well for this area that we shared with you last quarter.

我們還憑藉 Greater Barilla Draw 井 Peck 11H 打破了得克薩斯二疊紀盆地最佳油井的行業記錄，該井在 30 天內的峰值每天超過 6,500 桶油當量，平均每天 4,900 桶油當量，比過去增加了 30%我們上個季度與您分享的該領域的先前記錄。

These repeatable record-breaking results are a testament to our subsurface capability, value-based development approach and leading acreage position.

這些可重複的破紀錄結果證明了我們的地下能力、基於價值的開發方法和領先的種植面積地位。

While we are excited about these results and the associated returns, we believe there is still more to come as we continue to progress our subsurface characterization work and apply innovative technologies to our development plans.

雖然我們對這些結果和相關回報感到興奮，但我們相信隨著我們繼續推進我們的地下表徵工作並將創新技術應用於我們的開發計劃，我們還會有更多的收穫。

In addition to the productivity improvements, we lowered our field operating cost in Permian Resources to an all-time low of $7.03 per BOE in the quarter and expect to exit the year at less than $6 per BOE.

除了提高生產率外，我們還在本季度將 Permian Resources 的現場運營成本降至每桶油當量 7.03 美元的歷史最低水平，並預計今年年底將以低於每桶油當量 6 美元的價格結束。

Returns in Permian EOR are also improving.

二疊紀 EOR 的回報也在改善。

We continued to demonstrate our unique ability to maximize recovery of the reservoir by capturing oil that would otherwise not be recoverable.

我們繼續展示我們通過捕獲否則無法採收的石油來最大限度地提高油藏採收率的獨特能力。

As the largest EOR operator in the Permian, we continued to implement new CO2 expansions across our portfolio.

作為二疊紀最大的 EOR 運營商，我們繼續在我們的產品組合中實施新的 CO2 擴展。

We initiated an initial development of the residual oil zone at the Seminole-San Andres unit, which is providing encouraging results that will further enhance the returns from this asset.

我們啟動了塞米諾爾-聖安德烈斯單元殘油區的初步開發，取得了令人鼓舞的成果，將進一步提高該資產的回報。

Our expertise and position in enhanced oil recovery differentiates Oxy.

我們在提高石油採收率方面的專業知識和地位使 Oxy 脫穎而出。

We plan to leverage this core capability to generate enhanced returns in many areas of our business.

我們計劃利用這一核心能力在我們業務的許多領域產生更高的回報。

I'll close on Slide 14 by summarizing our returns-focused investment approach and the resulting production growth.

我將通過總結我們以回報為中心的投資方法和由此產生的產量增長來結束幻燈片 14。

While the industry has been confronted with many challenges in the Permian this year, our Permian Resources business is delivering its best year ever due to our returns-focused approach.

雖然該行業今年在二疊紀面臨許多挑戰，但由於我們以回報為中心的方法，我們的二疊紀資源業務正在創造有史以來最好的一年。

We have delivered 52% of the top Permian wells over the last 12 months while only drilling less than 5% of the total Permian wells over that time period.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們已經交付了 52% 的頂級二疊紀井，而在此期間僅鑽探了二疊紀總井數的不到 5%。

Our midstream business is providing flow assurance and exposure to the best pricing to our marketing arrangements, and we are protecting our development program from inflation and execution disruptions through our maintenance and logistics hub.

我們的中游業務正在為我們的營銷安排提供流量保證和最佳定價，並且我們正在通過我們的維護和物流中心保護我們的開發計劃免受通貨膨脹和執行中斷的影響。

Our inventory continues to improve as we advance and execute our development strategy, which provides us with sustainable, high-return investment options for the future.

隨著我們推進和執行我們的發展戰略，我們的庫存不斷增加，這為我們的未來提供了可持續的、高回報的投資選擇。

We expect Permian Resources to grow at over 35% next year, which is an outcome of our disciplined approach and the high-return investments that our assets provide.

我們預計 Permian Resources 明年將增長 35% 以上，這是我們嚴格的方法和我們的資產提供的高回報投資的結果。

I will now turn the call over to Ken to discuss international.

我現在將電話轉給肯討論國際問題。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，傑夫，大家早上好。

Let me start by saying how honored we are today to be able to announce 3 new blocks in Oman, which I will discuss in more detail in a minute.

首先讓我說一下我們今天能夠在阿曼宣布 3 個新區塊是多麼榮幸，我將在稍後詳細討論。

Overall, we had an excellent quarter from a financial and operational standpoint with world-class HES performance.

總的來說，從財務和運營的角度來看，我們有一個出色的季度，擁有世界一流的 HES 性能。

Our international upstream business is on target to realize $1.4 billion of free cash flow for 2018.

我們的國際上游業務目標是在 2018 年實現 14 億美元的自由現金流。

In the third quarter, we produced 297,000 BOE per day.

第三季度，我們每天生產29.7萬桶油當量。

We expect this high level of performance to continue as we deliver strong return projects for Oxy under our partners.

隨著我們在合作夥伴的領導下為 Oxy 交付豐厚的回報項目，我們預計這種高水平的業績將繼續下去。

The plan we outlined for 2018 is progressing well.

我們為 2018 年制定的計劃進展順利。

Our innovative debottlenecking at Al Hosn has increased production by 11% to a peak rate of 83,000 BOE per day net.

我們在 Al Hosn 的創新去瓶頸使產量增加了 11%，達到每天淨產量 83,000 桶油當量的峰值。

This is one example of how we create value and enhance returns for our existing assets as we executed the debottlenecking from the $10 million.

這是我們在執行 1000 萬美元的去瓶頸時如何為現有資產創造價值和提高回報的一個例子。

The TECA Steamflood project was sanctioned this month with our partner, Ecopetrol.

本月與我們的合作夥伴 Ecopetrol 批准了 TECA Steamflood 項目。

We'll begin ramping up production in 2020 and reach a growth rate of 30,000 BOE per day in 2025.

我們將在 2020 年開始提高產量，並在 2025 年達到每天 30,000 桶油當量的增長率。

We are starting to identify additional areas of high potential in the field which we can develop with attractive returns for both parties.

我們開始在該領域確定其他具有高潛力的領域，我們可以開發這些領域，為雙方帶來可觀的回報。

With our disciplined approach to major projects, the TECA Steamflood exceeds our hurdle rate with a breakeven price under $40 WTI.

憑藉我們對重大項目的嚴格方法，TECA Steamflood 以低於 40 美元 WTI 的盈虧平衡價格超出了我們的最低要求。

This is just one example of how our assets in Colombia will continue to generate long-term cash flow growth.

這只是我們在哥倫比亞的資產將如何繼續產生長期現金流增長的一個例子。

Internationally, our step-out drilling programs are on track to add approximately 20 million barrels of resources this year at low funding costs.

在國際上，我們的逐步鑽井計劃有望在今年以較低的融資成本增加約 2000 萬桶資源。

This is in addition to the 50 million barrels of resources added last year.

這是去年增加的 5000 萬桶資源的補充。

Overall, since 2014, using Oxy drilling dynamics and working with our suppliers, we've improved our drilling performance by 17% and reduced costs by 30%.

總體而言，自 2014 年以來，使用 Oxy 鑽井動力學並與我們的供應商合作，我們的鑽井性能提高了 17%，成本降低了 30%。

Moving now to Oman.

現在搬到阿曼。

We as Cities Service drilled the very first exploration wells in Oman in 1955 and made the first discovery in 1957.

作為城市服務部門，我們於 1955 年在阿曼鑽探了第一口勘探井，並於 1957 年取得了第一個發現。

In 2017, we produced our billionth barrel of oil in Oman with 2/3 of that production coming within the last 10 years.

2017 年，我們在阿曼生產了第 10 億桶石油，其中 2/3 是在過去 10 年內生產的。

We're excited today to announce 3 new blocks in Oman, which will more than double our land position to approximately 6 million acres and fit perfectly with our expertise in generating returns from waterflood and EOR developments.

我們今天很高興地宣佈在阿曼擁有 3 個新區塊，這將使我們的土地面積增加一倍以上，達到約 600 萬英畝，並且完全符合我們從注水和 EOR 開發中獲得回報的專業知識。

As you can see from the maps on Slide 18 (sic) [Slide 17], in Northern Oman, our acreage will stretch over 225 contiguous miles, allowing us to leverage existing infrastructure as we explore, appraise and develop Block 65 and 51.

正如您從幻燈片 18 (sic) [幻燈片 17] 上的地圖中看到的那樣，我們在阿曼北部的土地面積將超過 225 英里，使我們能夠在勘探、評估和開發 65 和 51 區塊時利用現有基礎設施。

Block 72 greatly expands our acreage position in Central Oman where we see opportunities to expand upon the success of our Mukhaizna development next door.

Block 72 極大地擴大了我們在阿曼中部的種植面積，我們看到了在隔壁 Mukhaizna 開發項目的成功基礎上進行擴展的機會。

In our existing blocks, as shown on Slide 19 (sic) [Slide 18], with the use of Oxy subsurface reservoir characterization workflows, we helped redefine the stratigraphy.

在我們現有的區塊中，如幻燈片 19 (sic) [幻燈片 18] 所示，通過使用 Oxy 地下儲層表徵工作流程，我們幫助重新定義了地層學。

This has enabled us over a short period of time to move from 5 productive horizons to 17 producing and appraisal horizons.

這使我們能夠在短時間內從 5 個生產層位轉移到 17 個生產和評估層位。

We will apply the same disciplined approach to the new blocks.

我們將對新區塊應用同樣嚴格的方法。

We will shoot 3D seismic and invest in targeted appraisal programs.

我們將拍攝 3D 地震並投資於有針對性的評估計劃。

Capital for next year will be modest as we acquire data and optimize future development profiles.

隨著我們獲取數據和優化未來的發展概況，明年的資金將是適度的。

These blocks have significant potential, especially when combined with our excellent Oman staff, exceptional partners and inspirational leadership in the country.

這些區塊具有巨大的潛力，尤其是與我們優秀的阿曼員工、傑出的合作夥伴和該國鼓舞人心的領導相結合時。

We expect our proven track record of value-based development and rapid time-to-market to continue.

我們希望我們在基於價值的開發和快速上市時間方面的良好記錄能夠繼續下去。

In closing, I'd like to say that our regional subsurface experience is now being fully leveraged.

最後，我想說的是，我們現在正在充分利用我們的區域地下經驗。

We believe that in the long term, when combined with our approach to operational excellence and value creation, it will bring future potential opportunities.

我們相信，從長遠來看，結合我們卓越運營和價值創造的方法，它將帶來未來的潛在機會。

I will now turn the call back to Vicki.

我現在將電話轉回給 Vicki。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Ken.

謝謝你，肯。

Before we move to the Q&A, I'd like to reiterate Oxy's sustainable value proposition through which we'll continue to deliver industry-leading returns.

在我們進入問答環節之前，我想重申 Oxy 的可持續價值主張，我們將通過它繼續提供行業領先的回報。

Our integrated business model enables us to take advantage of opportunities across the value chain and generate high returns in the Permian and internationally while benefiting from the stable cash flows generated from our midstream and Chemical segments.

我們的綜合業務模式使我們能夠利用整個價值鏈的機會，在二疊紀和國際上產生高回報，同時受益於我們的中游和化工部門產生的穩定現金流。

We will continue to invest in our human capital and empower our employees with a culture and facilities, innovation and excellence.

我們將繼續投資於我們的人力資本，並通過文化和設施、創新和卓越賦予我們的員工權力。

This is what their exceptional performance has enabled us to accomplish over the last couple of years.

這就是他們出色的表現使我們在過去幾年中取得的成就。

We've more than exceeded our targets.

我們已經超過了我們的目標。

In addition to delivering the best wells in the Permian, our experience in operating wells beyond the initial development and through their entire life cycle, including enhanced recovery, that's second to none.

除了在二疊紀提供最好的油井外，我們在初始開發之後和整個生命週期（包括提高采收率）的油井作業經驗也是首屈一指的。

Our Low Carbon Ventures business is making advances towards capturing and sequestering anthropogenic CO2, which will reduce carbon emissions while enhancing the economic development of our returns.

我們的低碳風險投資業務在捕獲和封存人為二氧化碳方面取得了進展，這將減少碳排放，同時促進我們回報的經濟發展。

Oxy is uniquely positioned to realize cost efficiencies, not only in developing and operating wells, but also through our capability to deliver our products to market at maximized realized prices.

Oxy 在實現成本效益方面具有獨特的優勢，這不僅體現在開發和運營油井方面，還體現在我們以最大化的實際價格將產品推向市場的能力方面。

We remain committed to developing our resources in a sustainable manner while spending within cash flow.

我們仍然致力於以可持續的方式開發我們的資源，同時在現金流範圍內支出。

Last quarter, we achieved our breakeven plan, meaning we will be cash flow neutral and pay our dividend at $40 WTI.

上個季度，我們實現了盈虧平衡計劃，這意味著我們將保持現金流中性，並以 40 美元的 WTI 價格支付股息。

And at $50 WTI, we can pay our dividend and grow production by 5% to 8-plus percent.

在 50 美元的 WTI 價格下，我們可以支付股息並將產量提高 5% 至 8% 以上。

This plan remains in place.

這個計劃仍然存在。

Our relentless focus remains on allocating free cash flow to investments with the highest returns across our integrated business and returning capital to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases.

我們始終專注於將自由現金流分配給綜合業務中回報最高的投資，並通過股息和股票回購向股東返還資本。

Since resuming our share repurchases program this year, we will have returned over $5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases by the end of 2019.

自今年恢復我們的股票回購計劃以來，到 2019 年底，我們將通過股息和股票回購向股東返還超過 50 億美元。

Lastly, across our businesses, we continue to focus on creating long-term value through industry-leading technical work, life cycle planning and operations focused on maximizing margins.

最後，在我們的業務中，我們繼續專注於通過行業領先的技術工作、生命週期規劃和專注於最大化利潤的運營來創造長期價值。

We'll now open it up for your questions.

我們現在將打開它來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Guys, I've got 2 questions, if I may.

伙計們，如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。

My first one is actually on the Middle East.

我的第一個實際上是關於中東的。

Obviously, I understand the comment about reallocating capital from Shah -- sorry, from Qatar.

顯然，我理解來自 Shah 的關於重新分配資本的評論——抱歉，來自卡塔爾。

But my question is really around Shah Al Hosn.

但我的問題實際上是圍繞著 Shah Al Hosn。

About a year or so ago, the government had talked about a project pre-FEED for something like a 50% expansion of that development.

大約一年前，政府曾討論過一個 FEED 前的項目，以便將該開發項目擴大 50%。

I understand you've done the bottlenecking project, but the second piece of that appears to have gone somewhat quiet.

我知道您已經完成了瓶頸項目，但其中的第二部分似乎變得有些安靜。

And I'm just wondering if you could give us an update as to where that stands, please.

我只是想知道你是否可以向我們提供最新情況。

Doug.

道格。

It's Ken.

是肯。

We've successfully debottlenecked the plant.

我們已經成功地消除了工廠的瓶頸。

We continue to look for ways to tweak the plant overall.

我們繼續尋找調整整個工廠的方法。

But at the moment, there are no full-scale debottlenecking plans in the near future.

但目前，短期內沒有全面的去瓶頸計劃。

We'll continue to work all different aspects of the project.

我們將繼續處理項目的所有不同方面。

But at the moment, there's no commitment.

但目前，沒有任何承諾。

We're really happy for being able to expand it from 1 Bcf to 1.3 Bcf a day with only a $10 million investment.

我們真的很高興能夠以僅 1000 萬美元的投資將其從每天 1 Bcf 擴展到 1.3 Bcf。

And so with that accomplishment, that sort of put the other project a bit on hold.

因此，有了這一成就，其他項目就有點擱置了。

Got it, understand.

明白了，明白了。

My follow-up is, if I could turn it back to the Permian, and I don't know who wants to take this one.

我的後續行動是，如果我能把它轉回二疊紀，我不知道誰想拿走這個。

But with Jeff moving to take over, I guess, the other regions, it begs the question what assumptions lie behind your 35% in fact longer-term growth profile.

但隨著 Jeff 開始接管其他地區，我想，這就引出了一個問題，即你的 35% 事實上的長期增長狀況背後的假設是什麼。

And to be clear, what I'm asking is Red Tank is obviously in a much, I guess, more overpressured area.

需要明確的是，我想問的是 Red Tank 顯然處於一個壓力更大的區域。

The transition of some of the things you've done in Eddy and Lea going over to Midland and I guess Southern Reeves.

你在 Eddy 和 Lea 所做的一些事情轉移到了米德蘭，我猜是南里夫斯。

Well, what does all of this mean for the assumptions that are embedded in your growth?

那麼，所有這些對於您成長中嵌入的假設意味著什麼？

Are you using 2018 productivity?

你在使用 2018 年的生產力嗎？

Are you using data productivity?

您在使用數據生產力嗎？

I'm just trying to understand what the well trajectory looks like that's embedded in your forecast, and I'll leave it there.

我只是想了解你的預測中嵌入的油井軌跡是什麼樣的，我會把它留在那裡。

Yes, Doug.

是的，道格。

This is Jeff.

這是傑夫。

I mean, I think when you look to next year, we've built in some of our recent performance, definitely the improvement performance we've seen in New Mexico, starting in '17 into '18.

我的意思是，我認為當你展望明年時，我們已經建立了我們最近的一些表現，絕對是我們在新墨西哥州看到的改進表現，從 17 年到 18 年開始。

We've built that in.

我們已經內置了它。

We've talked about before where we tend to be a little conservative is just additional improvements that are going to come in the future.

我們之前已經討論過我們傾向於保守一點的地方只是未來將要進行的額外改進。

We definitely expect to see additional improvements across our development areas.

我們絕對希望在我們的開發領域看到更多的改進。

You can see that through, not just New Mexico, but what we've done in Greater Barilla Draw and beyond that.

您不僅可以看到新墨西哥州，還可以看到我們在 Greater Barilla Draw 及其他地區所做的一切。

So the teams continue to work the subsurface methodology, which is the foundation of all the improvements we're making.

因此，團隊繼續研究地下方法，這是我們正在進行的所有改進的基礎。

So we expect those improvements to continue.

因此，我們希望這些改進能夠繼續下去。

But when you look at next year and the 35-plus percent growth that we've given out, we have built in many of those improvements that we're currently aware of.

但是當你看看明年和我們給出的 35% 以上的增長時，我們已經內置了許多我們目前知道的改進。

Where we are a little conservative is the things that we just haven't figured out but we expect to when we get to that point.

我們有點保守的地方是我們還沒有弄清楚的事情，但我們希望在達到這一點時能夠做到。

So just to be clear, is that trajectory on a flat rig count?

所以要明確一點，平坦鑽機上的軌跡算嗎？

Or is that a the rig count trajectory you can give us that goes along with that 2022 outlook?

還是您可以為我們提供的鑽機數量軌跡與 2022 年前景一致？

It's a flat rig count.

這是一個扁平的鑽機數量。

Our next question comes from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Singer。

Can you talk more to the specific drivers of getting Permian Resources operating cash cost down below $6 per BOE in the fourth quarter from slightly above $7 in the third quarter, especially as that would be an acceleration in cost reduction relative to what we saw in Q3 versus Q2?

您能否更多地談談使 Permian Resources 運營現金成本從第三季度略高於 7 美元的每桶油當量在第四季度降至 6 美元以下的具體驅動因素，特別是相對於我們在第三季度看到的情況，這將加速成本削減與 Q2 相比？

Yes, Brian.

是的，布萊恩。

This is Jeff.

這是傑夫。

I appreciate the question, yes.

我很欣賞這個問題，是的。

So the big drivers of that, there's 2 components: obviously, cost per BOE.

因此，其中的主要驅動力有兩個組成部分：顯然，每桶油當量的成本。

There's the cost side.

還有成本方面。

And so if you look at the details, you can see things like our downhole maintenance, the things we're doing from an artificial lift standpoint to finding effective artificial lift systems for very high-rate horizontal wells, yes.

因此，如果您查看細節，您會看到諸如我們的井下維護之類的事情，我們從人工舉升的角度所做的事情到為超高速水平井尋找有效的人工舉升系統，是的。

We're seeing our downhole maintenance cost come down because we're getting much better at finding the right lift systems.

我們看到井下維護成本下降，因為我們在尋找合適的舉升系統方面做得越來越好。

And then when things do fail, which they do, from artificial lift, getting them fixed cheaper and faster.

然後當事情確實失敗時，他們會通過人工舉升，以更便宜、更快的方式修復它們。

So that's one area.

所以這是一個領域。

You look at what we're doing on the water recycling side, the Chemical side, getting trucks off the road, infrastructure in place, so all the things that we do from our initial developments to where we start planning how do we need to operate these fields start to translate into the cost side.

你看看我們在水循環方面所做的事情，化學方面，讓卡車離開道路，基礎設施到位，所以我們所做的所有事情從我們最初的發展到我們開始規劃我們需要如何運作這些領域開始轉化為成本方面。

The second part of that component is obviously the barrels.

該組件的第二部分顯然是桶。

We're making a lot more barrels.

我們正在製造更多的桶。

We're making a lot more lower-cost barrels.

我們正在製造更多成本更低的桶。

So when you look at the cost per BOE of these new barrels we're bringing on, the high-rate unconventional barrels, they're much lower than the legacy barrels so that helps drive that cost down as well.

因此，當您查看我們帶來的這些新桶的每桶油當量成本時，即高利率非常規桶，它們遠低於傳統桶，因此也有助於降低成本。

And Vicki mentioned it, I mean, that's one area we're very excited about.

Vicki 提到了這一點，我的意思是，這是我們非常興奮的一個領域。

As the unconventional business matures, that's one area where we think, based on what we've done in our EOR business and the core capabilities we've built, we'll be able to use that and further differentiate ourselves when it comes to getting margin by not just good development cost but excellent operating cost.

隨著非常規業務的成熟，這是我們認為的一個領域，基於我們在 EOR 業務中所做的工作和我們建立的核心能力，我們將能夠利用它並在獲得利潤不僅來自良好的開發成本，還來自卓越的運營成本。

And I think this is a testament to that.

我認為這證明了這一點。

Great, great.

很棒很棒。

And then my follow-up is with regards to allocation of free cash flow.

然後我的後續行動是關於自由現金流的分配。

You highlighted the case for free cash flow well in excess of dividends out to 2022.

您強調了到 2022 年自由現金流遠遠超過股息的情況。

And when you think about the needs for allocation, what is needed to advance the portfolio, either from new projects or via M&A, versus what you see as returnable to shareholders?

當您考慮分配需求時，通過新項目或通過併購推進投資組合需要什麼，而不是您認為可以回報給股東的東西？

And then tangentially, Cedric mentioned $280 million may -- would have been invested in Qatar is going to be redeployed.

然後切線地，塞德里克提到了 2.8 億美元可能 - 本應投資於卡塔爾的資金將被重新部署。

Can you just talk more to where that's going?

你能多談談它的發展方向嗎？

Or maybe that was the point that you were making with regards to Colombia and Oman?

或許這就是你對哥倫比亞和阿曼提出的觀點？

Yes.

是的。

Brian, this is Cedric.

布賴恩，這是塞德里克。

A whole lot there in the question, but it's a good question.

問題很多，但這是一個很好的問題。

There's -- it's at the heart of what we're trying to do, which is to allocate capital to the very, very best places.

這是——這是我們正在努力做的事情的核心，那就是將資本分配到非常、非常好的地方。

As you know, we have a long history of a fairly diverse approach, which we are continuing today between dividends, buybacks and reinvestment.

如您所知，我們長期以來一直採用相當多樣化的方法，今天我們在分紅、回購和再投資之間繼續採用這種方法。

M&A also is something that's certainly been a part of Oxy's DNA and continues, and we look at opportunities there.

併購當然也是 Oxy DNA 的一部分，並且仍在繼續，我們在那裡尋找機會。

So our organic plan is very strong, and that's really what we've touched on here so far on the call.

所以我們的有機計劃非常強大，這就是我們到目前為止在電話會議上真正提到的內容。

But we've got lots of opportunities.

但是我們有很多機會。

And Ken touched on it, Internationally.

肯在國際上談到了它。

You see what we're doing with EOR and our Low Carbon Ventures, so -- and of course, the Permian is fantastic and even getting better each quarter.

您會看到我們在 EOR 和我們的低碳風險投資方面所做的事情，所以 - 當然，二疊紀非常棒，甚至每個季度都在變得更好。

So that's -- but that's how we're going to approach it.

這就是——但這就是我們處理它的方式。

It's consistent with what we've been doing, but we'll just continue to look for the very best places to put the money and make those decisions as we go each year.

這與我們一直在做的事情是一致的，但我們將繼續尋找最好的投資地點，並在每年進行時做出這些決定。

We do look forward to growing the dividend at a faster rate and buying more shares, but it will be opportunistic in those cases.

我們確實期待以更快的速度增加股息併購買更多股票，但在這些情況下這將是機會主義的。

And I'll just add to that.

我會補充一點。

We've shown before that up to $50 we can actually grow 5% to 8%.

我們之前已經證明，最高 50 美元我們實際上可以增長 5% 到 8%。

So when we -- from $50 to $60 that we have the opportunity to continue to either grow or use funds to buy back shares or to increase our dividend.

因此，當我們 - 從 50 美元到 60 美元時，我們有機會繼續增長或使用資金回購股票或增加股息。

And over time, the reason for the accelerated growth, what some considered accelerated growth early, is to try to put ourselves in a position with respect to cash flow that we can grow the dividend more meaningfully.

隨著時間的推移，加速增長的原因，有些人早期認為是加速增長，是為了讓我們自己在現金流方面處於一個能夠更有意義地增加股息的位置。

But I will say that the international projects that we've just picked up in Oman are very good.

但我要說的是，我們剛剛在阿曼獲得的國際項目非常好。

The seismic analysis and interpretation is showing good prospects.

地震分析與解釋顯示出良好的前景。

That's why Ken showed the stratigraph of the horizons that we have to choose from.

這就是為什麼 Ken 展示了我們必須選擇的層位圖。

This is stacked pay, and it's quality stacked pay.

這是疊加薪酬，而且是高質量的疊加薪酬。

So I'm really excited in that Oman provides us so many more opportunities now.

所以我真的很高興阿曼現在為我們提供了更多的機會。

And I feel a lot better today than I've ever felt about where we are with respect to the organic growth prospects and the ability to grow the cash flow.

我今天對我們在有機增長前景和增加現金流的能力方面的感覺比以往任何時候都好。

That's why we wanted to provide you the numbers for 2022.

這就是為什麼我們想為您提供 2022 年的數字。

We're very confident in being able to achieve that with the assets that we have and hopefully continue to advance technology to improve upon that.

我們非常有信心能夠利用我們擁有的資產實現這一目標，並希望繼續推進技術以改進這一目標。

But it's certain that we have -- I think we're in a better position today than we've ever been.

但可以肯定的是，我認為我們今天的處境比以往任何時候都好。

I'm excited about it.

我很興奮。

It's certainly taken a lot of pressure really off of our ability to continue to fund and develop and even improve projects within our portfolio.

我們繼續資助、開發甚至改進我們投資組合中的項目的能力確實承受了很大的壓力。

Our next question comes from Paul Sankey of Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Paul Sankey。

Vicki, you've provided an illustration here of the company at $60 through 2022.

Vicki，你在這裡提供了公司到 2022 年價格為 60 美元的示例。

It feels like you're planning at $50, and this is sort of an upside illustration of the kind of cash flows you'd generate.

感覺就像你在計劃 50 美元，這是對你將產生的現金流量的一種正面說明。

In that regard, I was wondering, the dividend growth, in the past you've talked about, in line with production growth, I think.

在這方面，我想知道，你過去談到的股息增長與產量增長一致，我認為。

Can you illustrate or indicate to us what kind of dividend growth you'd be aspiring to?

你能向我們說明或表明你渴望什麼樣的股息增長嗎？

Do I assume that you would grow the dividend assuming $50 and do the rest of this buyback?

我是否假設你會假設 50 美元增加股息並進行其餘的回購？

Yes.

是的。

What we -- the way we're trying to model this, and it's a little bit difficult to explain, but this $40 cash neutrality is really a point that we want to maintain into the future.

我們 - 我們試圖對此建模的方式，有點難以解釋，但這種 40 美元的現金中立性確實是我們希望在未來保持的一點。

What that means is as we continue to grow our cash flow, our cash flow neutrality price actually will go down.

這意味著隨著我們繼續增加現金流，我們的現金流中性價格實際上會下降。

As it goes down, we intend to grow the dividend accordingly so that we maintain the $40 cash flow neutrality.

隨著它的下降，我們打算相應地增加股息，以便我們保持 40 美元的現金流中性。

So that's what we're trying to come back to.

所以這就是我們試圖回到的地方。

That's why our model really showed that above $60 that providing cash back to the shareholders through buybacks is an option that, for us, will continue to be a part of our proposition.

這就是為什麼我們的模型真正表明，通過回購向股東提供現金超過 60 美元是一種選擇，對我們來說，這將繼續成為我們提議的一部分。

We don't want to increase the dividend so significantly that we put ourselves way above that cash flow neutrality, so we're targeting to keep that in place over time.

我們不想大幅增加股息，以至於我們將自己置於現金流中性之上，因此我們的目標是隨著時間的推移保持這種狀態。

And growing the cash flow to what we've proposed in 2022 will enable us to grow the dividend more meaningfully than we've done in the past few years.

將現金流量增加到我們在 2022 年提出的建議將使我們能夠比過去幾年更有意義地增加股息。

Yes.

是的。

So if we were to sort of triangulate that, would we be looking for something around a 5% dividend increase annually at a $50 assumption?

因此，如果我們要對其進行某種三角測量，我們是否會在 50 美元的假設下尋找每年約 5% 的股息增長？

Potentially.

潛在的。

But again, it depends on the cash flow.

但同樣，這取決於現金流。

If you -- when you model that out and you see what your free cash flow is from that model, that free cash flow is something that we would sustain -- be able to sustain beyond 2022.

如果你 - 當你模擬出來並且你看到你的自由現金流來自該模型時，這種自由現金流是我們可以維持的 - 能夠維持到 2022 年以後。

So that would be what we would then allocate to dividend growth over that time period.

因此，這將是我們隨後分配給該時期股息增長的資金。

Got it.

知道了。

And can you just remind us the -- subject in my final question, on risks such as we saw with Qatar in the past quarter, which I understand you couldn't prewarn about.

你能不能提醒我們——我最後一個問題的主題，關於風險，比如我們在上個季度看到的卡塔爾，我知道你無法預先警告。

And so for us you, were still in negotiation.

所以對我們來說，你還在談判中。

Can you just highlight anything else that is sort of in that realm of potential shift that could happen over the period through 2022 in terms of PSCs and other contracts?

您能否強調在 PSC 和其他合同方面可能在 2022 年期間發生的潛在轉變領域中的其他任何事情？

No.

不。

We don't have anything that would be expiring in terms of PSCs.

就 PSC 而言，我們沒有任何會過期的東西。

Everything else we have is long-term.

我們擁有的其他一切都是長期的。

The nearest term one that we would have would be ISSD, which is South Dome in Qatar.

最接近的術語是 ISSD，也就是卡塔爾的 South Dome。

That expires in 2022, but that's very low production, and that's really not even material to us.

這將在 2022 年到期，但產量非常低，而且對我們來說真的不是很重要。

But everything else, we're in good shape about.

但其他一切，我們都處於良好狀態。

That's why I made the comment I really feel good about where we are.

這就是為什麼我發表評論說我真的對我們所處的位置感覺良好。

Qatar was ISND.

卡塔爾是 ISND。

We worked hard to get that and to extend that, but we're actually -- this has turned into a win-win for us and that we've been able now to pick up in Oman, those 3 projects, which are onshore, lower cost, and they are right next to their bolt-on.

我們努力實現並擴展它，但實際上 - 這對我們來說已經變成了雙贏，我們現在能夠在阿曼接手這 3 個陸上項目，成本更低，而且它們就在螺栓固定的旁邊。

So they're right next to what we know we have in the blocks that we have today.

因此，它們就在我們今天所擁有的街區中所擁有的東西旁邊。

And with the -- what we see on the seismic, we feel really good about that potential.

有了——我們在地震中看到的，我們對這種潛力感到非常滿意。

So it's a -- we went from kind of a material asset and higher costs to lower cost, new field development but newer infrastructure.

所以這是一個 - 我們從一種物質資產和更高的成本轉向成本更低的新油田開發但更新的基礎設施。

So we're in a really good situation today.

所以我們今天的情況非常好。

Our next question comes from Leo Mariani of National Alliance Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 National Alliance Securities 的 Leo Mariani。

Wanted to explore a little bit further on Oman here.

想在這裡進一步探索阿曼。

Obviously, you guys had some interesting prepared remarks on it.

顯然，你們對此有一些有趣的準備評論。

You certainly talked about some enhanced recoveries and some EOR opportunities, but I'm just trying to get a high-level sense here.

你當然談到了一些增強的恢復和一些 EOR 機會，但我只是想在這裡獲得一個高層次的感覺。

Is there already production on some of these blocks?

其中一些區塊已經生產了嗎？

Are there some maybe lower-producing mature fields?

是否有一些可能產量較低的成熟油田？

Or is this more of a rank exploration play in certain areas?

或者這更像是在某些領域的等級探索遊戲？

Maybe you can just kind of try to bit of characterize this a little bit, just to get a sense of the risk profile and the opportunity here?

也許你可以試著稍微描述一下這個，只是為了了解這裡的風險狀況和機會？

Leo, it's Ken.

里奧，是肯。

If you look at the blocks individually, Block 65 is very close to our Block 67, so we see that -- Block 27, so we see that as step-out wells for formations that we're used to dealing with.

如果您單獨查看這些區塊，第 65 區塊非常接近我們的第 67 區塊，所以我們看到了——第 27 區塊，所以我們將其視為我們習慣處理的地層的步出井。

If you look at 72, it's beside Block 53 with the giant Mukhaizna field.

如果你看 72，它就在擁有巨大 Mukhaizna 油田的 Block 53 旁邊。

We're also seeing recent discoveries with our step-out wells in Block 53 with a Buah trend running north.

我們還看到了我們在 53 號區塊的步出井的最新發現，其中 Buah 趨勢向北延伸。

There are also blocks in the north, further north in 72 that have a Buah trend running south.

北部也有街區，更北的 72 街區有向南延伸的 Buah 趨勢。

The 2D seismic lines that we've seen over 72 look really, really appealing, and we've got the areas divided into clusters running north.

我們已經看到超過 72 條的 2D 地震線看起來真的非常吸引人，而且我們已經將這些區域劃分為向北延伸的集群。

So cluster 1, we plan on drilling a well late this year.

所以集群 1，我們計劃在今年晚些時候鑽一口井。

And we'll start 3D seismic as quickly as possible, so we can get a crew next year.

我們將盡快開始 3D 地震，這樣我們明年就可以找到工作人員。

Low dollars in terms of capital, but we see really, really high potential in these blocks.

就資本而言，美元很低，但我們在這些區塊中看到了非常非常高的潛力。

And then if you look at the stratigraphy, we've done some recent seismic work in one of our existing blocks where it looked like we saw something, so we put some pails very cheaply on development wells, a few hundred thousand dollars.

然後，如果你看一下地層學，我們最近在我們現有的一個區塊中做了一些地震工作，看起來我們看到了什麼，所以我們在開發井上非常便宜地放了一些桶，幾十萬美元。

And we now get a 1,000 barrel a day well producing in a zone that's not being produced in Oman before.

現在我們在阿曼以前沒有生產過的區域每天生產 1,000 桶油。

The question is, how do we calibrate that and does it run everywhere?

問題是，我們如何校準它並讓它在任何地方運行？

And what we've got there is essentially a zone that's got 25 penetrations in an area the size of the Delaware Basin.

我們在那裡得到的基本上是一個區域，在特拉華盆地大小的區域有 25 個滲透。

So we see real opportunities with our step-out program, and we see real opportunities because of proximity to existing facilities, we can get stuff on really, really quickly.

因此，我們看到了我們的走出去計劃的真正機會，並且由於靠近現有設施，我們看到了真正的機會，我們可以非常非常快地完成工作。

And great familiarity with our Omani staff there and our partners are really committed to these projects, too.

並且非常熟悉我們在那裡的阿曼員工，我們的合作夥伴也真正致力於這些項目。

So we see it holistically huge opportunities here for us.

所以我們從整體上看到它對我們來說是巨大的機會。

All right.

好的。

That's very helpful color.

這是非常有用的顏色。

Just switching gears a little bit to the Permian Basin, bit of a high-level characterization I was looking for here.

只是將齒輪稍微切換到二疊紀盆地，這是我在這裡尋找的高級特徵。

But I guess you guys just continue to make better and better wells here in the Permian.

但我想你們只是繼續在二疊紀這裡打出越來越好的井。

It's just very impressive results again here this quarter, more record wells.

本季度再次取得了令人印象深刻的結果，創下了更多的記錄。

I'm just trying to get a sense, I mean, you certainly mentioned that there could be further improvements down the road.

我只是想了解一下，我的意思是，你肯定提到過未來可能會有進一步的改進。

I mean, where do you guys think you sit like if I was to use a baseball analogy?

我的意思是，如果我用棒球做比喻，你們覺得你們坐在哪裡？

Is this the fourth or fifth inning?

這是第四局還是第五局？

Are we more toward the later innings of improvements?

我們是否更傾向於後期的改進？

Just trying to get a high-level perspective.

只是想獲得一個高層次的視角。

Leo, this is Jeff.

里奧，這是傑夫。

I mean, that's a good question and one we continually ask ourselves, especially the leaders of these businesses because we always think, well, these great results, they've got to stop at some point.

我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題，我們不斷地問自己，尤其是這些企業的領導者，因為我們總是認為，好吧，這些偉大的成果，他們必須在某個時候停止。

But the thing I'll take you back to, I mean, you almost have to go back.

但我要帶你回去的事情，我的意思是，你幾乎必須回去。

Vicki initiated this transformation probably 4 years ago.

Vicki 大概在 4 年前開始了這種轉變。

So if you look at where we've come over the last 4 years, it's truly amazing.

所以如果你看看我們在過去 4 年裡取得的成就，那真是太棒了。

Inside the company, we really saw us turn the corner a couple years ago.

在公司內部，幾年前我們真的看到了轉機。

But then now, I think over the last couple of quarters, you're seeing that more externally.

但現在，我認為在過去的幾個季度裡，你更多地從外部看到了這一點。

And the thing I'd tell you is, while the foundation is built and subsurface technical excellence, which was always the primary building block for what we're doing, there's many other elements that allow us to take subsurface technical excellence and turn that into economic value and sustainable returns.

我要告訴你的是，雖然基礎已經建立並且地下技術卓越，這始終是我們正在做的事情的主要基石，但還有許多其他因素可以讓我們獲得地下技術卓越並將其轉化為經濟價值和可持續回報。

Things like the long-term development planning, what we've done with Aventine; things like data analytics, which we're finding new improvements every day; things like developing the culture and the human capital to really be successful in a business like this, we continue to see improvements in all those areas.

諸如長期發展規劃，我們對 Aventine 所做的事情；數據分析之類的東西，我們每天都在發現新的改進；諸如發展文化和人力資本以在這樣的企業中真正取得成功之類的事情，我們繼續看到所有這些領域的改進。

So the ability to predict when do those improvements stop - is very difficult, but we definitely don't think that's anytime in the near future.

因此，預測這些改進何時停止的能力非常困難，但我們絕對認為這不會在不久的將來發生。

And what makes us feel so strongly about that is all you have to do is go to the people actually doing this work and you see the improvements that they see, that they want to go capture that they haven't been able to capture yet, and those continue to happen at a very rapid pace.

讓我們如此強烈地感受到這一點的是，你所要做的就是去找真正從事這項工作的人，你會看到他們看到的改進，他們想要捕捉到他們還沒有捕捉到的東西，並且這些繼續以非常快的速度發生。

So I think the improvements may happen in different areas.

所以我認為改進可能發生在不同的領域。

I doubt we'll be talking about a record well in Sand Dunes every quarter.

我懷疑我們每個季度都會談論 Sand Dunes 的記錄。

You'll start to see where that may plateau, and then improvements may be coming in a different area at New Mexico or a different area at Barilla Draw or Midland Basin, wherever that is, or it may come on well costs instead of productivity, but they'll all be returns and value driven.

你會開始看到可能會停滯不前的地方，然後可能會在新墨西哥州的不同地區或 Barilla Draw 或 Midland Basin 的不同地區出現改進，無論那是哪裡，或者它可能會出現在井成本而不是生產力上，但它們都是以回報和價值為導向的。

So I think when you look at from a returns and value creation standpoint, the improvements are going to happen for a very long period of time.

所以我認為，當你從回報和價值創造的角度來看時，這些改進將在很長一段時間內發生。

And then Vicki mentioned after initial development, EOR, operating capability, all that, I think the improvements will shift to that, but they'll all be centered around how do we create more value, how do we get higher returns.

然後 Vicki 在初步開發、EOR、運營能力之後提到了所有這些，我認為改進將轉向這一點，但它們都將圍繞我們如何創造更多價值，我們如何獲得更高回報。

And I don't think they're going to stop anytime in the near future.

而且我不認為他們會在不久的將來隨時停止。

I'd just like to add to that, that we -- during the downturn, another thing that we didn't do that others did is we didn't lay off employees.

我只想補充一點，我們 - 在經濟低迷期間，我們沒有做的另一件事是我們沒有裁員。

We took that opportunity to engage and empower our employees and let some of our team work on things that were longer term so that we could start to impact our cost structure, and with the subsurface, our characterization and dramatically change how we view our subsurface now.

我們藉此機會讓我們的員工參與進來並賦予他們權力，讓我們的一些團隊從事更長期的工作，這樣我們就可以開始影響我們的成本結構，以及地下，我們的特徵，並顯著改變我們現在對地下的看法.

But the credit for this all goes to our employees.

但這一切都歸功於我們的員工。

We've empowered them to do the things that they need to do, take risks, do things differently, try some things that we haven't tried before, but most importantly, too, when they felt the need to do what they needed to do from a technical expertise standpoint, to not only develop themselves and use the incredible mentors that we have internally, but also to go external and to get the data that we need.

我們已經授權他們去做他們需要做的事情，承擔風險，做不同的事情，嘗試一些我們以前沒有嘗試過的事情，但最重要的是，當他們覺得有必要做他們需要做的事情時從技術專長的角度出發，不僅要發展自己並使用我們內部擁有的令人難以置信的導師，還要走出去並獲得我們需要的數據。

On top of all this, too, is our really aggressive data analytics team that by working directly with the business units, the business units guide them to the questions and the problems that they need to solve, and the analytics group gets with them and works on those issues.

最重要的是，我們真正積極進取的數據分析團隊通過直接與業務部門合作，業務部門引導他們解決問題和他們需要解決的問題，分析團隊與他們一起工作在那些問題上。

And so it's a combination of a lot of things.

所以這是很多事情的結合。

But most importantly, it's our -- the collaboration of our people to drive towards success, not just solving a problem that's not meaningful, but driving toward the things that really improve the value of our portfolio and the production and value that we can deliver.

但最重要的是，這是我們的——我們的員工通力合作以推動成功，不僅僅是解決一個沒有意義的問題，而是推動真正提高我們投資組合價值以及我們可以提供的生產和價值的事情。

Our next question comes from Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Pavel Molchanov。

Just one for me.

只給我一個。

One of the investor concerns about the story is the rising proportion of high decline rate production in your mix, 1/3 this past quarter, probably reaching 40% next year.

投資者對這個故事的擔憂之一是你們組合中高遞減率生產的比例上升，上個季度為 1/3，明年可能達到 40%。

Can you just address kind of how high that proportion can get in your mind and still keep the dividend be sustainable?

你能不能說明這個比例在你腦海中能達到多高，同時仍然保持股息的可持續性？

Well, we were managing both the growth of the dividend, but what we noted we can deliver -- I think we can deliver over time with the assets that we have, but that's what's the value, though, about our Colombia and our Oman and our Abu Dhabi assets is that they are essentially very low decline or when they are higher decline, there's the opportunity -- these are conventional mostly, so there's the opportunity for enhanced oil recovery.

好吧，我們正在管理股息的增長，但我們注意到我們可以交付——我認為我們可以隨著時間的推移交付我們擁有的資產，但這就是我們的哥倫比亞、我們的阿曼和我們的阿布扎比資產是，它們基本上是非常低的跌幅，或者當它們的跌幅較高時，就有機會——這些大多是傳統的，所以有提高石油採收率的機會。

Some of it's just going to be waterflooding.

其中一些只是注水。

Others will be maybe perhaps, either miscible gas or specifically CO2.

其他人可能是混溶氣體或特別是二氧化碳。

But these opportunities -- and again, this gets back to what I'm saying, I'm so comfortable and happy with where we are today.

但是這些機會——再一次，這又回到了我所說的，我對我們今天的處境感到非常舒服和高興。

This is the part that I was referring to when I said it's taken some of the stress off the business for the growth potential.

當我說它減輕了業務增長潛力的一些壓力時，這就是我所指的部分。

These 3 blocks, along with what we have to develop on the existing blocks, based on what we see with the seismic, these will deliver the conventional component of our growth going forward that's critically important to help us manage our base decline.

這 3 個區塊，以及我們必須在現有區塊上開發的內容，基於我們對地震的觀察，這些將提供我們未來增長的常規組成部分，這對於幫助我們控制基礎下降至關重要。

Right.

正確的。

So.

所以。

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

I just wanted to add to that, a part of what's going help the Permian Basin, too, with respect to the decline there is in our resources business.

我只想補充一點，在我們的資源業務下降方面，部分原因也將幫助二疊紀盆地。

We have performed multiple tests and pilots on CO2 injection into the shale, and that is technically successful.

我們對向頁岩中註入二氧化碳進行了多次測試和試點，這在技術上是成功的。

We're working now on establishing what that would look like from a full field development.

我們現在正在努力建立一個完整的油田開發的樣子。

So we do believe that, along with gas injection, these are 2 opportunities for us to offset decline going forward in the resources business on a larger scale.

因此，我們確實相信，連同註氣，這是我們抵消資源業務未來更大規模下滑的兩個機會。

Part of what will support that is our Low Carbon Ventures team, which is out looking for opportunities and actually have one in hand already, one that's -- where we're currently injecting anthropogenic CO2 but another that will come online.

我們的 Low Carbon Ventures 團隊將支持這一點，該團隊正在尋找機會並且實際上已經掌握了一個機會，一個是 - 我們目前正在註入人為二氧化碳，但另一個將上線。

And this team will give us opportunity to take CO2 that's captured from industry, bring it to the Permian and use, not just in our conventional reservoirs, but in our shale play as well.

這個團隊將使我們有機會將從工業中捕獲的二氧化碳帶到二疊紀並不僅在我們的常規油藏中使用，而且在我們的頁岩油氣中使用。

So that will work.

這樣就可以了。

That's another way that we can continue to lower our decline.

這是我們可以繼續降低跌幅的另一種方式。

Our next question comes from Phil Gresh of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Gresh。

The first question is just around the guidance for 2022.

第一個問題是關於 2022 年的指導。

How do you think about the amount of lost CFO between now and then from Qatar and from midstream and from chemicals?

您如何看待從卡塔爾、中游和化學品行業時不時流失的 CFO 數量？

Well, this is why we put the plan in place because, really, now, Qatar was a headwind, but we design our programs and our plans knowing that we're going to have cycles with respect to differentials in the Permian.

好吧，這就是我們制定計劃的原因，因為現在卡塔爾確實是一個逆風，但我們設計我們的項目和計劃時知道我們將在二疊紀的差異方面有周期。

We're going to have variations in caustic soda prices, variations and sulfur prices.

我們將在燒鹼價格、變化和硫磺價格方面有所變化。

So we plan around that, and we generally plan to be pretty conservative with those things that cycle up and down.

所以我們圍繞這個計劃，我們通常計劃對那些上下循環的東西非常保守。

So the program that we put forth for 2022, we feel that certainly we can achieve that at $60 and with conservative assumptions on pricing.

因此，我們為 2022 年提出的計劃，我們認為我們當然可以在 60 美元的價格和保守的定價假設下實現這一目標。

Okay.

好的。

So I mean, I guess I was trying to run some numbers on this.

所以我的意思是，我想我正在嘗試對此進行一些計算。

I mean, Qatar, you said there's $200 million of CapEx and you said it's $300 million of free cash flow, so I'd assume that's about $500 million in CSO.

我的意思是，卡塔爾，你說有 2 億美元的資本支出，你說這是 3 億美元的自由現金流，所以我假設 CSO 大約是 5 億美元。

And with your midstream sensitivities, it seemed like there's maybe $1.3 billion going from the 2018 differential down to the $3 differential on your assumptions.

考慮到你的中游敏感性，從 2018 年的差異到你假設的 3 美元差異似乎可能有 13 億美元。

So I was calculating It might be approaching $2 million of CSO backfill between that and chemicals to kind of get you back to a normalized place and then the CSO growth on top of that?

所以我在計算它可能會接近 200 萬美元的 CSO 回填在它和化學品之間，讓你回到正常的地方，然後 CSO 增長最重要的是？

Yes.

是的。

We're assuming the differential will be $3 starting in 2020 to 2022.

我們假設從 2020 年到 2022 年的差異為 3 美元。

The differential for next year we assume to be essentially what it averaged this year.

我們假設明年的差異基本上是今年的平均水平。

But with respect to the replacement of the cash flow, what's important for us is the cash flow, not only from operations, but the cash flow pre-capital and post-capital.

但是關於現金流的替代，對我們來說重要的是現金流，不僅來自運營，還有資本前和資本後的現金流。

The reality is that, had we proceeded with the ISND, the capital would have gone up.

現實情況是，如果我們繼續實施 ISND，資本就會上漲。

The take would have gone down.

收入會下降。

So in our models, we didn't have to replace that.

所以在我們的模型中，我們不必替換它。

So there was not going to be, for us, what we saw going forward as big a gap as you're calculating.

因此，對我們來說，我們所看到的未來差距不會像您計算的那樣大。

So essentially, though, the replacement of that comes from the growth in Resources and the International growth.

但從本質上講，它的替代來自資源和國際增長的增長。

And again, conservative assumptions for marketing and also Midstream and Chemicals.

再次，對營銷以及中游和化學品的保守假設。

Okay.

好的。

If I can just follow up on some of the prior questions.

如果我可以跟進一些先前的問題。

If you put it all together where the growth is coming from between now and 2022 embedded in your cash flow guidance, are you assuming basically all of the growth will come from the Permian?

如果你把所有這些放在一起，從現在到 2022 年的增長來自你的現金流指導，你是否假設基本上所有的增長都將來自二疊紀？

Or should we be thinking that there will be, with the blocks in Oman, et cetera, that there will be some international or other growth in the portfolio?

或者我們是否應該考慮，隨著阿曼等地的區塊，投資組合中會有一些國際或其他增長？

Yes.

是的。

What we can say is that, for Resources, you could assume that, over the 4-year period, there would be about a 25% CAGR, plus or minus a couple of percent.

我們可以說的是，對於 Resources，您可以假設在 4 年期間，複合年增長率約為 25%，上下浮動幾個百分點。

So that would be what would come from Resources.

因此，這將來自 Resources。

And then assume that the rest of the production growth would come from a combination of enhanced oil recovery in the Permian plus Oman and Colombia opportunities.

然後假設其餘的產量增長將來自二疊紀石油採收率提高以及阿曼和哥倫比亞機會的組合。

Our next question comes from Bob Morris of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Bob Morris。

A question for you, either, I guess, Vicki or Jeff.

有一個問題要問你，我猜是 Vicki 或 Jeff。

As you look at the Permian Basin, your growth forecast for next year assumes that the rig count being flat basically what it is currently and assumes about $60 WTI.

當您查看二疊紀盆地時，您對明年的增長預測假設鑽機數量基本與目前持平，並假設 WTI 價格約為 60 美元。

This year, you start out the year with a $50 WTI assumption.

今年，您以 50 美元的 WTI 假設開始新的一年。

But with a higher cash flow, we're able to land a few rigs versus what was the original plan to accelerate growth in 2019, and you're already looking at double-digit growth in 2019 now for the total company.

但是有了更高的現金流，我們能夠在 2019 年加速增長的最初計劃中登陸一些鑽井平台，而且你現在已經看到整個公司在 2019 年實現兩位數的增長。

But if oil prices end up being much higher than assumption of $60 per barrel WTI, would you again look to perhaps add rigs later in the year and accelerate into 2020?

但是，如果油價最終遠高於 WTI 每桶 60 美元的假設，您是否會再次考慮在今年晚些時候增加鑽井平台並加速到 2020 年？

Or are you pretty dead set on keeping the rig count flat through 2019 and sort of dialing back to that 5% to 8% growth then in 2020?

或者你是否已經死定了要在 2019 年保持鑽機數量持平，然後在 2020 年回撥到 5% 到 8% 的增長率？

We're going to be dead flat with respect to our rigs in '19 because we are going to stay within the $5 billion to $5.3 billion free cash flow.

我們將在 19 年的鑽井平台方面持平，因為我們將保持在 50 億至 53 億美元的自由現金流範圍內。

We're rolling -- putting together our capital plan now.

我們正在滾動 - 現在製定我們的資本計劃。

We'll roll that out in the next quarter, so we'll provide you more information on it.

我們將在下個季度推出，因此我們會為您提供更多相關信息。

But from what we're seeing right now, unless the Board directs something else, we would go with the same rig count into 2019 that we have today.

但從我們現在看到的情況來看，除非董事會另有指示，否則我們將在 2019 年採用與今天相同的鑽井平台數量。

Okay.

好的。

So even with a lot higher oil prices, that incremental cash is definitely going to go to dividend increases or share buybacks and not to accelerating activity any more than in 2019?

因此，即使油價高得多，增加的現金肯定會用於增加股息或股票回購，而不是像 2019 年那樣加速活動？

Yes.

是的。

In 2019, we -- our capital is set for $5 billion to $5.3 billion.

2019 年，我們——我們的資本定為 50 億至 53 億美元。

Our next question comes from Paul Cheng of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Vicki, on Oman, I know, is early, early days.

Vicki，在阿曼，我知道，很早，很早。

Can you give us some idea?

你能給我們一些想法嗎？

Did it work out as you expected.

是否如您所願。

how big is the program that they can support?

他們可以支持的項目有多大？

I'll go ahead and let Ken take that.

我會繼續，讓 Ken 接受。

I think that Ken has modeled out some opportunities for growth, which really depends on what we find from the extension of our appraisal program.

我認為 Ken 已經模擬了一些增長機會，這實際上取決於我們從評估計劃的擴展中發現了什麼。

I think our capability is going to well exceed what will fit within our capital budget, but I'm sure Ken is going to lobby for more.

我認為我們的能力將遠遠超出我們的資本預算，但我相信 Ken 會遊說更多。

Ken, you want to address that?

肯，你想解決這個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think that's a fair assessment.

我認為這是一個公平的評估。

As you can see from one of the slides, we showed a number of wells in the inventory that is fairly substantial.

正如您從其中一張幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們在庫存中展示了一些相當可觀的油井。

Drilling cluster 1 as soon as possible and Block 72 will open up that area very quickly.

盡快鑽探集群 1，Block 72 將很快打開該區域。

It's very close to our existing block.

它非常靠近我們現有的街區。

Same with Block 65, close to Block 27.

與Block 65相同，靠近Block 27。

So I think we have to compete with Permian Resources, and I feel we've got the inventory to do so.

所以我認為我們必須與 Permian Resources 競爭，而且我覺得我們有這樣做的庫存。

So as Vicki said that we'll be coming along knocking on our door trying to drive the performance there.

因此，正如 Vicki 所說，我們會來敲我們的門，試圖推動那裡的表現。

And Ken, I think you guys mentioned that you're going to acquire more 3D seismic next year, so spending in the program would be pretty slow next year.

肯，我想你們提到明年你們將獲得更多的 3D 地震，所以明年該計劃的支出會非常緩慢。

So what kind of time line -- or is there any, maybe the benchmark that we can use or milestone we can use there, how that progress?

那麼什麼樣的時間表——或者是否有我們可以使用的基准或我們可以在那裡使用的里程碑，進展如何？

Yes.

是的。

I think if you look at it that we have some existing 2D seismic over most of the areas which we'll quickly reprocess.

我認為，如果你看一下，我們會在大多數區域進行一些現有的 2D 地震，我們將快速重新處理這些區域。

We also have some overlapping 3D seismic that other operators have showed in the areas.

我們也有一些重疊的 3D 地震，其他運營商已經在這些地區展示過。

We're able to access those, particularly around cluster 1. Frankly, next year is appraisal, reprocessing seismic obtaining new 3D seismic, moderate to low drilling next year, and then the following year being in a position where we can expand the drilling program, if we can obtain some capital, so a thoughtful disciplined approach.

我們能夠訪問這些，特別是在集群 1 周圍。坦率地說，明年是評估、重新處理地震以獲得新的 3D 地震，明年進行中低鑽探，然後第二年我們可以擴大鑽探計劃，如果我們能獲得一些資本，那麼周到有紀律的方法。

We want to add value, deliver returns, not only for us, but for our partners and for the government also.

我們希望不僅為我們自己，而且為我們的合作夥伴和政府增加價值，提供回報。

So you think that by the end of next year that you will have a much better idea on how big is the program that you could support from a resource standpoint and you can...

所以你認為到明年年底，你會更好地了解從資源的角度來看你可以支持的項目有多大，你可以……

Absolutely, absolutely.

絕對，絕對。

And that in terms of the Permian now, Vicki or Jeff, have you guys ever provide, say, by 2025, if we're going to maintain the same rig program as it is today, what type of production that we may be talking about?

就現在的二疊紀而言，Vicki 或 Jeff，你們有沒有提供過，比如說，到 2025 年，如果我們要維持與今天相同的鑽機計劃，我們可能會談論什麼類型的生產？

We know we have the capability to continue to grow the Resources business at pretty much the same CAGR we've achieved between now and 2022.

我們知道，我們有能力以從現在到 2022 年期間幾乎相同的複合年增長率繼續發展資源業務。

Whether or not we do that really depends on the other international projects and opportunities.

我們是否這樣做真的取決於其他國際項目和機會。

So I can tell you we have the capability, but whether that's what we're going to do would depend on what we see at that time.

所以我可以告訴你我們有能力，但我們是否會這樣做取決於我們當時看到的情況。

And will you be trying to maintain that, say, $5 billion to $5.5 billion over the next several years in terms of CapEx?

就資本支出而言，您是否會在未來幾年內努力維持 50 億至 55 億美元？

Or that will also be subject to change?

或者這也會發生變化？

Our CapEx between now and 2020 we expect to be between $5 billion and $5.3 billion.

從現在到 2020 年，我們的資本支出預計在 50 億美元到 53 億美元之間。

That, of course, assumes a $60 or better kind of environment or, call it, $60.

當然，這是假設 60 美元或更好的環境，或者稱之為 60 美元。

As we've said many times, prices are very volatile.

正如我們多次說過的，價格波動很大。

If we fall -- if it falls, we intend to keep our spending and our dividend within cash flow, and we can get -- take that all the way down to $40 oil.

如果我們下跌 - 如果它下跌，我們打算將我們的支出和股息保持在現金流範圍內，我們可以獲得 - 將其一直降至 40 美元的油價。

And if that happens, the growth will moderate, but we intend to be disciplined to spending within cash flow.

如果發生這種情況，增長將會放緩，但我們打算在現金流範圍內控制支出。

Sure, I understand.

當然，我明白。

But I guess a lot of people are just asking that if the price end up staying sustainable above the, say, $60 range, does that mean that you guys will also be looking the opportunity there to accelerate the growth?

但我想很多人只是在問，如果價格最終保持在 60 美元以上的可持續水平，這是否意味著你們也會在那裡尋找加速增長的機會？

Or that -- Vicki already said that 2019 program is pretty dead set.

或者說——Vicki 已經說過 2019 年的計劃已經死定了。

So how about beyond 2019?

那麼2019年以後呢？

If the commodity price environment is better, does that mean that you're going to spend more than the $5.3 billion or that you're still going to stick to that program?

如果大宗商品價格環境更好，這是否意味著您將花費超過 53 億美元，或者您仍將堅持該計劃？

Well, we've given a broad outline of how we would see things in a $60 environment further out.

好吧，我們已經給出了在 60 美元的環境中我們將如何看待事物的廣泛概述。

I think it's too early to speculate on wildly different price environments.

我認為現在推測截然不同的價格環境還為時過早。

I would say, certainly like you've seen us already, in a price environment, above $60, and we weren't that far above it this last quarter, we would certainly look to complement our spending with much more substantial buyback program.

我想說的是，就像你已經看到我們一樣，在價格環境中，價格高於 60 美元，而上個季度我們並沒有高出太多，我們當然會尋求通過更實質性的回購計劃來補充我們的支出。

But to go with a lot greater definition, I think, is just too early to do that today.

但我認為，現在要進行更廣泛的定義還為時過早。

In the interest of time, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

為了節省時間，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Vicki Hollub for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給 Vicki Hollub 作任何閉幕詞。

I just want to say thank you all for your questions today.

我只想說謝謝大家今天提出的問題。

We're excited about where we're headed, and we'll continue to increase our opportunities and get better.

我們對我們的前進方向感到興奮，我們將繼續增加我們的機會並變得更好。

So thank you all.

所以謝謝大家。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Bye.

再見。

The conference is now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。