西方石油 (OXY) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Occidental's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Alvarez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

下午好，歡迎參加西方石油公司 2021 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Jeff Alvarez)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chuck. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental's First Quarter 2021 Conference Call. On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Peterson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，查克。大家下午好，感謝您參加西方石油公司 2021 年第一季度電話會議。今天與我們通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Vicki Hollub；以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Rob Peterson。

This morning, we will refer to slides available on the Investors section of our website. The presentation includes a cautionary statement on Slide 2 regarding forward-looking statements that will be made on the call this morning.

今天早上，我們將參考我們網站投資者部分提供的幻燈片。該演示文稿在幻燈片 2 上包含了關於今天上午電話會議中將做出的前瞻性陳述的警告性聲明。

I'll now turn the call over to Vicki. Vicki, please go ahead.

我現在將電話轉給 Vicki。維琪，請繼續。

Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to start this morning by saying how pleased we are with our first quarter operational and financial performance. The momentum generated by our improved cost structure and capital intensity leadership was a catalyst for our strong results this quarter and is expected to continue to provide a solid foundation for free cash flow generation.

謝謝杰夫，大家下午好。我想在今天早上開始說，我們對第一季度的運營和財務業績感到非常滿意。我們改善的成本結構和資本密集度領先地位所產生的動力是我們本季度強勁業績的催化劑，預計將繼續為自由現金流的產生提供堅實的基礎。

This morning, I will cover our first quarter operational performance and divestiture progress. Rob will cover our financial results and balance sheet improvement as well as our updated guidance, which includes an increase in guidance for Midstream and OxyChem's 2021 earnings.

今天早上，我將介紹我們第一季度的運營業績和剝離進展。 Rob 將介紹我們的財務業績和資產負債表的改善以及我們更新的指導，其中包括提高 Midstream 和 OxyChem 2021 年收益的指導。

Our first quarter results are a perfect example of how our ability to consistently deliver strong operational performance has strengthened our financial position. In the first quarter, we generated $1.6 billion of free cash flow, which is our highest level of quarterly free cash flow in a decade. We also closed almost $500 million of divestitures, repaid $174 million of debt and exited the quarter with approximately $2.3 billion of unrestricted cash.

我們第一季度的業績完美地說明了我們持續提供強勁運營業績的能力如何增強了我們的財務狀況。第一季度，我們產生了 16 億美元的自由現金流，這是十年來我們季度自由現金流的最高水平。我們還完成了近 5 億美元的資產剝離，償還了 1.74 億美元的債務，並在本季度結束時獲得了約 23 億美元的非限制性現金。

Our plan to stabilize 2021 production at our fourth quarter 2020 exit rate is on track. We delivered first quarter production from continuing operations of over 1.1 million BOE per day, with total company-wide capital spending of only $579 million. We're particularly proud of this achievement, given the operational challenge posed by winter storm Uri.

我們將 2021 年產量穩定在 2020 年第四季度退出率的計劃正在按計劃進行。我們第一季度的持續運營產量每天超過 110 萬桶油當量，而全公司資本支出總額僅為 5.79 億美元。考慮到冬季風暴烏里帶來的運營挑戰，我們對這一成就感到特別自豪。

Our domestic oil and gas operating cost of $7.20 per BOE continued to demonstrate the lasting impact of our cost-reduction measures and includes about $83 million of atypical costs related to the winter storm. I want to note that we have fully recovered from the storm with no lasting impact. Even with incurring storm-related costs in the first quarter, our full year domestic operating guidance has only increased by $0.10 per BOE, which represents a significantly smaller increase than the approximate $0.25 per BOE that the $83 million in total OpEx would have otherwise added. This is a significant achievement made possible by our teams continuously seeking efficiencies and finding innovative ways to safely and effectively lower costs.

我們的國內石油和天然氣運營成本為每桶油當量 7.20 美元，繼續證明了我們成本削減措施的持久影響，其中包括與冬季風暴相關的約 8,300 萬美元的非典型成本。我想指出的是，我們已經從風暴中完全恢復，沒有造成持久影響。即使第一季度產生了與風暴相關的成本，我們的全年國內運營指導也僅增加了每桶油當量 0.10 美元，這明顯低於 8300 萬美元總運營支出本應增加的每桶油桶約 0.25 美元的增幅。這是我們團隊不斷追求效率並尋找安全有效降低成本的創新方法所取得的重大成就。

In the first quarter, OxyChem benefited from robust PVC pricing and gradual strengthening in the caustic soda market. OxyChem's integration across multiple chlorine derivatives provides us with the ability to optimize our caustic soda production while opportunistically adjusting our production mix to maximize margins. OxyChem's ability to adjust to rapidly changing market dynamics was invaluable during the downturn last year, and we were able to provide critical products to the medical, pharmaceutical and disinfection markets to respond to COVID. Given the recent improvements in the chlorovinyl and caustic soda markets, we expect OxyChem to extend its track record as a market leader and consistent generator of free cash flow.

第一季度，OxyChem 受益於 PVC 定價的強勁和燒鹼市場的逐漸走強。 OxyChem 對多種氯衍生物的整合使我們能夠優化燒鹼生產，同時適時調整我們的生產結構以實現利潤最大化。在去年的經濟低迷時期，OxyChem 適應快速變化的市場動態的能力非常寶貴，我們能夠向醫療、製藥和消毒市場提供關鍵產品以應對新冠疫情。鑑於近期氯乙烯和燒鹼市場的改善，我們預計 OxyChem 將延續其作為市場領導者和持續自由現金流產生者的記錄。

Additionally, during winter storm Uri, our team was able to safely protect our assets as well as provide essential products to our customers. Our team's effective response limited the storm's impact on facility maintenance cost to an immaterial amount.

此外，在冬季風暴烏里期間，我們的團隊能夠安全保護我們的資產，並為我們的客戶提供必需的產品。我們團隊的有效應對措施將風暴對設施維護成本的影響限制在很小的範圍內。

Midstream and marketing's outperformance compared to guidance in the first quarter was primarily driven by our ability to optimize long-haul gas transportation in the Rockies, along with the timing impact of export sales. Following the increase in activity in the fourth quarter, our oil and gas business continued to push the envelope with new efficiency gains as we seamlessly transitioned into the first quarter.

與第一季度的指導相比，中游和營銷的表現優於預期，主要是由於我們優化落基山脈長途天然氣運輸的能力以及出口銷售的時間影響。隨著第四季度活動的增加，我們的石油和天然氣業務繼續突破極限，實現了新的效率提升，無縫過渡到第一季度。

Our Permian teams outperformed expectations in the first quarter by setting new drilling records in New Mexico, the Texas Delaware and the Midland Basin, while also driving down costs. Our first quarter Permian achievements are especially impressive as we have now augmented the efficiencies of our Oxy Drilling Dynamics with remote directional drilling, an exciting innovation that allows the drill bit to be steered from a separate location. Being able to control and optimize our operations remotely and instantaneously apply shared expertise to similar activities has numerous advantages that we expect our operations to benefit from in the future.

我們的二疊紀團隊第一季度的表現超出了預期，在新墨西哥州、德克薩斯州特拉華州和米德蘭盆地創造了新的鑽井記錄，同時還降低了成本。我們第一季度二疊紀的成就尤其令人印象深刻，因為我們現在通過遠程定向鑽井提高了 Oxy Drilling Dynamics 的效率，這是一項令人興奮的創新，允許從單獨的位置操縱鑽頭。能夠遠程控制和優化我們的運營並立即將共享的專業知識應用於類似的活動具有許多優勢，我們希望我們的運營在未來受益。

We also continue to achieve significant efficiency improvements in the Rockies, where in the first quarter, our DJ drilling team reached our lowest average cost per foot in program history. I'd also like to highlight Oman for their best-ever HES performance with no recordables in the first quarter while drilling the longest laterals in Oxy Oman history and achieving record drilling times.

我們還在落基山脈繼續實現顯著的效率改進，在第一季度，我們的 DJ 鑽井團隊達到了項目歷史上每英尺的最低平均成本。我還想強調阿曼有史以來最好的 HES 表現，第一季度沒有任何可記錄，同時鑽探了 Oxy Oman 歷史上最長的支管，並實現了創紀錄的鑽探時間。

After a pause of the issuance of new drilling permits on federal land earlier this year, we have now started to see the process move forward again with the approval of new permits. We currently do not expect the permitting process to have an impact on our activity levels as we still plan to run an average of 11 rigs in the Permian this year and 2 in the Rockies.

今年早些時候暫停在聯邦土地上發放新的鑽探許可證後，我們現在開始看到隨著新許可證的批准，這一過程再次向前推進。目前，我們預計許可程序不會對我們的活動水平產生影響，因為我們仍計劃今年在二疊紀平均運行 11 座鑽井平台，在落基山脈運行 2 座鑽井平台。

In late April, I testified before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in support of lifting the federal leasing moratorium. As I told the committee, continued onshore oil and gas development means high-paying jobs, community reinvestment and meeting energy and product needs during the transition to a low-carbon economy. We look forward to working with Congress and the Administration on ways to create clarity and short- and long-term regulatory certainty.

4月下旬，我在美國參議院能源和自然資源委員會作證，支持取消聯邦租賃暫停令。正如我告訴委員會的那樣，持續的陸上石油和天然氣開發意味著高薪就業、社區再投資以及滿足向低碳經濟轉型期間的能源和產品需求。我們期待與國會和政府合作，尋找明確的方法以及短期和長期監管的確定性。

After we announced the sale of our Colombia onshore assets last year, we updated our divestiture plan to sell $2 billion to $3 billion of assets by the middle of this year. Our progress towards this target continues as we closed almost $500 million of sales in the first quarter. Post Colombia, we now have closed approximately $835 million of divestitures and are well on our way to achieving our target. But we will continue to make the best value decisions by weighing the impact of future cash flows in our current environment versus the benefits of meeting a deadline or divestiture target.

去年我們宣佈出售哥倫比亞境內資產後，我們更新了剝離計劃，計劃在今年年中之前出售 20 億至 30 億美元的資產。我們在實現這一目標方面繼續取得進展，第一季度銷售額接近 5 億美元。繼哥倫比亞之後，我們現已完成約 8.35 億美元的資產剝離，並且正在順利實現我們的目標。但我們將繼續通過權衡當前環境下未來現金流的影響與滿足最後期限或剝離目標的好處來做出最佳價值決策。

Looking back over the last year, I'm particularly proud of the accomplishments our teams have achieved and look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead. Not only have we optimized our portfolio, improved our balance sheet and continued to reduce costs, we've also created a pathway to achieve net zero emissions. As we take our next steps toward achieving our future goals, including further balance sheet improvement, returning additional capital to shareholders and bringing our first commercial scale direct air capture plant online, we will continue to maintain our low-cost, capital efficient, stable production base with a goal of maximizing free cash flow generation through capital discipline and margin preservation.

回顧過去的一年，我對我們團隊取得的成就感到特別自豪，並期待未來的機會。我們不僅優化了產品組合、改善了資產負債表並持續降低成本，還開闢了實現淨零排放的途徑。當我們採取下一步措施實現未來目標時，包括進一步改善資產負債表、向股東返還額外資本以及使我們的第一個商業規模的直接空氣捕集工廠上線，我們將繼續保持低成本、資本效率高、穩定的生產其目標是通過資本紀律和利潤保護最大化自由現金流的產生。

Our cash flow priorities are structured with the aim of positioning our company for future success. While we are encouraged by the improving macro environment and are especially proud of our team's ability to maintain and sustain our production base, we will continue to improve our balance sheet until we reach the point where our financial position will support a more meaningful return on capital and return of capital to our shareholders throughout the commodity cycle.

我們的現金流優先事項的構建旨在使我們的公司取得未來的成功。雖然我們對不斷改善的宏觀環境感到鼓舞，並對我們的團隊維持和維持生產基地的能力感到特別自豪，但我們將繼續改善我們的資產負債表，直到我們的財務狀況能夠支持更有意義的資本回報並在整個商品週期內向股東返還資本。

I'll now hand the call over to Rob, who will walk you through our financial results for the first quarter and guidance for the remainder of the year.

現在我將把電話轉給 Rob，他將向您介紹我們第一季度的財務業績以及今年剩餘時間的指導。

Thank you, Vicki. I want to echo Vicki's comments on our strong performance in the first quarter. Our cash flow priorities illustrate the importance we continue to place on capital discipline, free cash flow generation and balance sheet improvement. As we look ahead on the steps necessary to transition from our current to our medium-term cash flow priorities, our focus on balance sheet improvement will continue to influence our financial policies.

謝謝你，維基。我想回應 Vicki 對我們第一季度強勁表現的評論。我們的現金流優先事項表明我們繼續重視資本紀律、自由現金流生成和資產負債表改善。當我們展望從當前現金流優先事項過渡到中期現金流優先事項所需採取的步驟時，我們對資產負債表改善的關注將繼續影響我們的財務政策。

Throughout 2020, which was one of the worst years our industry has endured, we focused on deleveraging and have continued to reduce debt in the first quarter of this year. We repaid approximately $9.6 billion of principal since August of 2019, with more to come as we can complete our divestiture program combined with leveraging our ability to generate excess free cash flow and maintain our commitment to capital discipline.

2020年是我們行業經歷的最糟糕的一年，我們重點關注去槓桿，並在今年第一季度繼續減少債務。自 2019 年 8 月以來，我們已償還了約 96 億美元的本金，隨著我們能夠完成剝離計劃，並利用我們產生超額自由現金流的能力並維持我們對資本紀律的承諾，我們還將償還更多本金。

On past calls, I've highlighted our preference for a viable path to return to investment-grade credit rating before allocating excess cash flow to our medium-term priorities. Our credit ratings are based on several factors, including a certain level of debt, returning to investment-grade in a mid-cycle commodity price environment may include reducing debt to the mid-$20 billion range. We are not there today, but we believe this goal is achievable, given our potential to generate free cash flow.

在過去的電話會議中，我強調了我們在將多餘現金流分配給我們的中期優先事項之前，傾向於採取可行的途徑恢復投資級信用評級。我們的信用評級基於多種因素，包括一定水平的債務，在中期大宗商品價格環境中恢復投資級可能包括將債務減少至 200 億美元左右的範圍。我們今天還沒有達到這個目標，但考慮到我們產生自由現金流的潛力，我們相信這個目標是可以實現的。

We repaid $174 million of debt in the first quarter, and now have less than $225 million of maturities due the remainder of 2021. As we generate cash from organic free cash flow and close our remaining divestitures, we have several more options available to deploy that cash to improve our balance sheet. We have the option to call the 2022 floating rate notes prior to maturity and may at times allow our cash position to build until maturities come due.

我們在第一季度償還了 1.74 億美元的債務，現在 2021 年剩餘時間到期的債務還不到 2.25 億美元。隨著我們從有機自由現金流中產生現金並完成剩餘的資產剝離，我們還有更多選擇來部署現金來改善我們的資產負債表。我們可以選擇在到期前贖回 2022 年浮動利率票據，並且有時可能會允許我們建立現金頭寸，直到到期為止。

We have additional options available to address future maturities, which we are currently evaluating. We may also consider retiring $750 million of notional interest rate swaps later this year for the fair value amount, which was approximately $665 million at quarter end. This would improve cash flows by almost $50 million per annum at the current curve.

我們還有其他選項可以解決未來的到期問題，目前我們正在評估這些選項。我們還可能考慮在今年晚些時候以公允價值金額收回 7.5 億美元的名義利率掉期，該金額在季度末約為 6.65 億美元。按目前的曲線計算，這將使現金流量每年增加近 5000 萬美元。

In the first quarter, we announced an adjusted loss of $0.15 per share and a reported loss of $0.36 per diluted share. The difference between our adjusted and reported results is primarily due to a gain on asset sales and positive fair value adjustments offset by planned lease expiries and a legal contingency related to our 2016 settlement with Ecuador.

第一季度，我們宣布調整後每股虧損 0.15 美元，報告每股攤薄虧損 0.36 美元。我們調整後的結果與報告的結果之間的差異主要是由於資產銷售收益和正公允價值調整被計劃的租賃到期以及與我們 2016 年與厄瓜多爾和解相關的法律意外事件所抵消。

This quarter, we classified all derivative instruments with mark-to-market adjustments as items affecting comparability. We expect this change will be helpful to investors comparing underlying business performance between periods and reconciling actual results to our guidance, which had previously excluded the mark-to-market adjustment.

本季度，我們將所有按市價調整的衍生工具歸類為影響可比性的項目。我們預計這一變化將有助於投資者比較不同時期的基本業務績效，並將實際結果與我們的指導相一致，而我們之前的指導排除了按市值計價的調整。

We were able to add additional gas hedges in the quarter and have now hedged approximately half of our 2021 domestic natural gas production with a floor of $2.50 per Mcf.

我們能夠在本季度增加額外的天然氣對沖，現在已經對沖了 2021 年國內天然氣產量的大約一半，下限為每 Mcf 2.50 美元。

We are on track to spend within our full year capital budget of $2.9 billion, having incurred capital expenditures of only $579 million in the first quarter. Our operational success, combined with our focus on sustaining production in a more supportive commodity price environment, enabled us to generate $1.6 billion in free cash flow and exit the quarter with almost $2.3 billion of unrestricted cash on hand.

我們的全年資本預算預計將達到 29 億美元，而第一季度的資本支出僅為 5.79 億美元。我們的運營成功，加上我們專注於在更具支持性的商品價格環境中維持生產，使我們能夠產生 16 億美元的自由現金流，並在本季度結束時擁有近 23 億美元的不受限制的現金。

Our business incurred a negative working capital change in the quarter, which was largely driven by higher accounts receivable and inventory balances due to commodity price recovery. Over half of the working capital change was due to commodity price, which reflects the timing difference between when the revenue is recognized when the cash is received.

我們的業務在本季度出現了營運資金負變化，這主要是由於大宗商品價格回升導致應收賬款和庫存餘額增加所致。超過一半的營運資金變化是由於商品價格造成的，這反映了確認收入與收到現金之間的時間差異。

We also made several payments that are typical in the first quarter, including property taxes, cash interest payments, employee benefit payments and pension contributions. We see the potential for the working capital change to partially reverse over the remainder of this year as expenses accrued last year were already paid in the first quarter of this year.

我們還支付了第一季度常見的幾筆款項，包括財產稅、現金利息支付、員工福利支付和養老金繳款。我們認為今年剩餘時間內營運資本變化可能會部分逆轉，因為去年應計的費用已在今年第一季度支付。

We are pleased to be able to update our full-year guidance for Midstream and OxyChem, reflecting strong first quarter performance and improved market conditions. Our revised guidance, combined with our operational achievements, have enabled us to lower our 2021 breakeven to the mid-$30 range on a WTI basis before the preferred dividend.

我們很高興能夠更新 Midstream 和 OxyChem 的全年指引，反映出第一季度的強勁業績和市場狀況的改善。我們修訂後的指引，結合我們的運營成就，使我們能夠在優先股股息之前將 2021 年 WTI 盈虧平衡點降低至 30 美元中間的範圍。

I would like to reiterate that despite the first quarter weather impact to our Permian production of approximately 25,000 BOE per day, as guided on our last call, combined with the production impact associated with divesting $285 million of minerals, and a negative PSC impacts of over 5,000 BOE per day related to higher oil prices, our full year production guidance of 1.14 million BOE per day remains intact, as does our full year capital budget of $2.9 billion.

我想重申，儘管第一季度天氣對我們二疊紀產量的影響約為每天 25,000 桶油當量（根據我們上次電話會議的指導），加上與剝離 2.85 億美元礦物相關的生產影響，以及超過與油價上漲相關的每日 5,000 桶油當量，我們全年 114 萬桶油當量/日的產量指引保持不變，我們的全年資本預算 29 億美元也保持不變。

I will now turn the call back over to Vicki.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Vicki。

Thank you, Rob. We are encouraged by the positive reception our 2020 Climate Report received following its release in December, as well as the enthusiasm our low carbon strategy continues to generate. We understand that many of our stakeholders have a desire to learn more about our low carbon projects and the returns these projects will generate.

謝謝你，羅布。我們對 2020 年氣候報告自 12 月發布以來獲得的積極反響以及我們的低碳戰略持續產生的熱情感到鼓舞。我們知道，我們的許多利益相關者都希望更多地了解我們的低碳項目以及這些項目將產生的回報。

While we are not yet able to share the economics, we have created partnerships to finance and deploy cutting-edge CCUS technology, which leverages our expertise and our tens of billions of dollars' worth of CO2 infrastructure, assets, and pore space. We are creating these cross-industry opportunities for others to invest alongside us to maximize the deployment pace and carbon removal impact. We look forward to sharing more information when possible.

雖然我們還無法分享經濟效益，但我們已經建立了合作夥伴關係來資助和部署尖端的 CCUS 技術，該技術利用了我們的專業知識以及價值數百億美元的二氧化碳基礎設施、資產和孔隙空間。我們正在為其他人與我們一起投資創造這些跨行業機會，以最大限度地提高部署速度和碳清除影響。我們期待盡可能分享更多信息。

As part of being a socially and environmentally responsible operator, we consistently make operational improvements in addition to working toward our net zero goals. In the first quarter, we started a water recycling facility in the Midland Basin and began utilizing recycled water in our South Curtis Ranch development. In partnership with an industry-leading water midstream company, we were able to increase our water recycling efforts and lower cost. Recycling water has been a large focus of ours in New Mexico for several years, and we are pleased to have been able to expand this effort into Texas.

作為對社會和環境負責的運營商的一部分，我們除了努力實現淨零目標外，還不斷改進運營。第一季度，我們在米德蘭盆地啟動了水回收設施，並開始在南柯蒂斯牧場開發項目中使用回收水。通過與行業領先的水務中游公司合作，我們能夠加大水循環利用力度並降低成本。多年來，回收水一直是我們在新墨西哥州的一大重點，我們很高興能夠將這一努力擴展到德克薩斯州。

Before we begin the Q&A, I want to announce that in April, we became the first U.S. oil and gas company to commit to adopting the World Economic Forum's Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics. This commitment will guide our process to incorporate the Forum's metrics most relevant to our business into our environmental, social and governance reporting. We believe this is the appropriate framework to supplement our reporting on ESG progress, enhance transparency and strengthen our engagement with investors and other stakeholders.

在開始問答之前，我想宣布，四月份，我們成為第一家承諾採用世界經濟論壇利益相關者資本主義指標的美國石油和天然氣公司。這一承諾將指導我們將與我們業務最相關的論壇指標納入我們的環境、社會和治理報告中。我們相信這是補充我們的 ESG 進展報告、提高透明度以及加強我們與投資者和其他利益相關者的接觸的適當框架。

We'll now open the call for your questions.

我們現在將開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Dan Boyd with Mizuho.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由瑞穗的丹·博伊德提出。

So I want to ask one on direct air capture, but I think, first, just kind of starting with the free cash flow outlook here. Could you give us an update on your dividend breakeven? I think last time you talked about it, it was in the high 30s. Presumably, it's lower given the improvements that you've seen in chemicals and midstream. And maybe also just comment on your free cash flow generation this year at the strip, adjusted for work -- even if you include working capital, I think there's probably a lot of questions on that today, given what the stock is doing.

所以我想問一個關於直接空中捕獲的問題，但我認為，首先，從這裡的自由現金流前景開始。您能給我們介紹一下您的股息盈虧平衡的最新情況嗎？我想你上次談到這個的時候，已經是 30 多歲了。考慮到您在化學品和中游領域所看到的改進，大概它會更低。也許也只是評論一下今年在大道上產生的自由現金流，根據工作進行調整——即使你包括營運資金，我認為考慮到股票的表現，今天可能會有很多問題。

Sure, Dan, thanks. So our revised guidance, when you combine operational achievements, did lower our breakeven, I would say, mid-$30 range on a WTI basis before the preferred dividend. Specifically, we give a range because it is influenced by a number of factors that you listed, including the cash flows, including the natural gas prices, realization for our products, divestiture timing and where chemicals and midstream falls in respect of earnings guidance. And obviously, this quarter, we were able to significantly improve our guidance on both the chemicals and midstream business, which has a material impact on that range.

當然，丹，謝謝。因此，當你結合運營業績時，我們修訂後的指引確實降低了我們的盈虧平衡點，我想說，在優先股股息之前，以 WTI 為基礎，我們的盈虧平衡點在 30 美元中間。具體來說，我們給出了一個範圍，因為它受到您列出的許多因素的影響，包括現金流（包括天然氣價格）、我們產品的變現、剝離時機以及化學品和中游在盈利指導方面的下降情況。顯然，本季度我們能夠顯著改善對化學品和中游業務的指導，這對該範圍產生了重大影響。

In addition to that, as we take that organic cash flow and we can further improve the breakeven and doing things like I mentioned in my opening comments regarding interest rate swaps, where we retire the $750 million notional value, that was $665 million at the end of the quarter, we're able to eliminate about $50 million of interest costs for the year using the current curve. So there's a lot of things that go into that.

除此之外，當我們利用有機現金流時，我們可以進一步改善盈虧平衡，並做我在關於利率掉期的開場評論中提到的事情，我們收回了 7.5 億美元的名義價值，最終為 6.65 億美元就本季度而言，使用當前曲線，我們能夠消除當年約 5000 萬美元的利息成本。所以這裡面有很多事情。

In terms of forecasting out cash flow into the year, we don't forecast cash flow forward on that side of it. I think you can see a pretty representative quarter. It's a fairly clean quarter outside of a few things. And I think you can see -- eliminate the working capital and get an idea what kind of cash we would generate at similar prices moving forward.

在預測今年的現金流量方面，我們不會預測該年的未來現金流量。我認為你可以看到一個非常有代表性的季度。除了一些事情之外，這是一個相當乾淨的季度。我想你可以看到——消除營運資金，並了解我們未來以類似的價格會產生什麼樣的現金。

Okay. I'm sure you're going to get more on that. So Vicki, I wanted to go back to the direct air capture. I came across a document, it was a presentation that someone on your team made to the California Air Resource Board, I think, back in October that talked about building or at least having 4 facilities online in 2025. And there was also a petition to get credits or, I guess, generate the credits during the construction phase. So can you just talk about that, and what that might be able to do in terms of your ability to finance this in creative ways as you just touched upon?

好的。我確信您會對此有更多了解。所以 Vicki，我想回到直接空中捕捉。我偶然發現了一份文件，我想是您團隊中的某個人在 10 月份向加州空氣資源委員會所做的演示，其中談到了在 2025 年建設或至少擁有 4 個在線設施。還有一份請願書獲得學分，或者我想，在施工階段產生學分。那麼，您能否談談這個問題，以及您剛才提到的以創造性方式融資的能力，這可能會帶來什麼影響？

Yes. I'll say that we don't have any concerns about being able to finance our first direct air capture facility. The first one where -- once we have both trains built, we'll be able to capture 1 million tons per year of CO2. So to us, there are no financing concerns. But it's helpful to -- when we can to generate some cash as we're building the facility. That's what that request was about. And if we could get that request, what that enables us to do is accelerate development of the next facility. So what we're trying to do is what I believe the CARB and others want to do, and that is accelerate our ability to be able to have a positive impact on the environment and also to be able to create value for our shareholders.

是的。我想說的是，我們對能否為我們的第一個直接空氣捕獲設施提供資金沒有任何擔憂。第一個——一旦我們建造了兩列火車，我們每年將能夠捕獲 100 萬噸二氧化碳。所以對我們來說，不存在融資問題。但這是有幫助的——當我們在建設設施時能夠產生一些現金。這就是那個請求的目的。如果我們能得到這個請求，我們就能加速下一個設施的開發。因此，我們正在努力做的就是我相信 CARB 和其他人想要做的事情，那就是加快我們對環境產生積極影響並為我們的股東創造價值的能力。

We're trying to accelerate that where we can. And so we believe that we will be able to provide or obtain some funds either from that or potentially from some modifications that we think is critically important to 45Q because currently 45Q is a tax credit. If that were a direct pay to us for the carbon that we capture, that's another enabler that allows us to accelerate the construction of the technology, get that advanced faster and more built sooner. So there, we're looking at multiple ways to accelerate all that we're doing in the Permian with respect to direct air capture.

我們正在盡我們所能加速這一進程。因此，我們相信，我們將能夠從中提供或獲得一些資金，或者可能從我們認為對 45Q 至關重要的一些修改中提供或獲得一些資金，因為目前 45Q 是稅收抵免。如果這是對我們捕獲的碳的直接支付，那麼這就是另一個推動因素，使我們能夠加速技術的建設，更快地取得進步，更快地建設更多的技術。因此，我們正在尋找多種方法來加速我們在二疊紀直接空氣捕獲方面所做的一切。

The next question will come from Neal Dingmann with Truist.

下一個問題將由 Neal Dingmann 和 Truist 提出。

Vicki, I know you mentioned on the prepared remarks that you were fine with -- as far as permits, and it's not going to influence the 2 rigs in the Rockies. Just wondering, if and when the decisions come out in August, what might, I guess, changes could we see either in the Gulf of Mexico or Rockies, I guess, depending on how -- to the degree of what comes out?

Vicki，我知道您在準備好的發言中提到過，只要允許，您就可以接受，並且這不會影響落基山脈的兩個鑽機。只是想知道，如果決定在八月份公佈，我想，我們會在墨西哥灣或落基山脈看到什麼變化，我想，這取決於結果的程度？

I think the changes that will come out will not impact current leases. I do believe that we'll be able to continue permitting on current leases. My concern is that there could be a moratorium, a longer-term moratorium on picking up additional leases. That would be bad for our industry. It would be bad for the United States. It would put our country in a position where we would likely have an even tougher time increasing production above where the United States is today.

我認為即將發生的變化不會影響當前的租賃。我確實相信我們將能夠繼續允許現有的租約。我擔心的是，可能會有一個暫停，一個更長期的暫停獲得額外的租約。這對我們的行業來說是不利的。這對美國來說將是一件壞事。這將使我們的國家處於一個更加困難的境地，將產量提高到美國今天的水平之上。

As you know, we were at one point over 13 million barrels a day of oil production from the U.S. That's a scenario that gave us strength in world politics. It gave us the ability to completely supply our own oil and products domestically. We would not have to import very much at all at a 13 million barrel a day level because I believe our refining capacity is somewhere near 17 million. So we would have some capability to be almost completely independent.

如您所知，美國的石油產量一度超過每天 1300 萬桶。這種情況賦予了我們在世界政治中的力量。它使我們能夠完全在國內供應我們自己的石油和產品。如果達到每天 1300 萬桶的水平，我們根本不需要進口太多，因為我相信我們的煉油能力接近 1700 萬桶。所以我們會有一些幾乎完全獨立的能力。

With a moratorium on federal leases, that would really drive down our industry's ability to react. Now where we are in that, we've got 9.5 million acres of -- to develop in the U.S. And of that 9.5 million acres, I think only about 1.6 million are federal, and about half of that is offshore. So from a new lease standpoint, there are some companies that are in better positions than others, and we believe we are.

由於聯邦租賃的暫停，這確實會降低我們行業的反應能力。現在我們在美國有 950 萬英畝的土地有待開發。在這 950 萬英畝的土地中，我認為只有大約 160 萬英畝是聯邦土地，其中大約一半是近海土地。因此，從新的租賃角度來看，有些公司比其他公司處於更好的地位，我們相信我們確實如此。

But what I'm advocating for is the industry and for the country because the other thing about this is some of this is being touted as a way to reduce emissions for the United States, which would be definitely a bad move because we are very prudent with what we're doing in United States compared to a lot of countries around the world. We've reduced emissions significantly in the U.S. and continue to push technologies to further reduce.

但我所提倡的是行業和國家，因為另一件事是其中一些被吹捧為減少美國排放的一種方式，這絕對是一個糟糕的舉動，因為我們非常謹慎與世界上許多國家相比，我們在美國所做的事情。我們在美國顯著減少了排放，並繼續推動技術進一步減少排放。

API, we're part of API, and a lot of companies within API have committed to a voluntary partnership where we're all working to share technologies and to help each other reduce emissions and to get the best available technology in place to address emissions and climate change. So I think that, for me, the biggest worry is not on existing leases. It's just the moratorium could be extended for a long time on picking up -- or anybody picking up any new releases.

API，我們是 API 的一部分，API 內的許多公司都致力於建立自願夥伴關係，我們都致力於共享技術並幫助彼此減少排放，並獲得最佳的可用技術來解決排放問題和氣候變化。所以我認為，對我來說，最大的擔憂不是現有的租約。只是暫停期可能會延長很長一段時間，以供任何人選擇新版本。

No, very -- I really liked the details. And then just a follow-up. I'm just wondering, will your financial investments, and I guess, sort of 2-parter here, just talk about maybe what type of financial investments you see in your carbon capture. And initially there was other clean energy because you seem to have an advantage, especially out there in the Perm on some others. And really, my main question around that is, will the funds that you spend on that, is that going to influence what you're able to spend on either -- on some of the upstream? Or are they too sort of independent there?

不，非常——我真的很喜歡這些細節。然後只是後續行動。我只是想知道，您的金融投資（我猜，這裡有兩部分）是否會談談您在碳捕獲中看到的金融投資類型。最初還有其他清潔能源，因為你似乎有優勢，特別是在彼爾姆的其他一些能源上。事實上，我的主要問題是，你花在這方面的資金會影響你在上游的一些項目上的支出嗎？或者他們在那裡太獨立了？

No. Our low carbon strategy is very connected to our CO2 enhanced oil recovery projects. And as we have mentioned before, we started working on this low carbon strategy because we wanted a more sustainable source for CO2 and a lower-cost CO2 for our enhanced oil recovery.

不會。我們的低碳戰略與我們的二氧化碳強化石油採收率項目密切相關。正如我們之前提到的，我們開始致力於這一低碳戰略，因為我們想要一個更可持續的二氧化碳來源和更低成本的二氧化碳來提高石油採收率。

Where we're positioned today is incredibly exciting because in the Permian Basin, we have such a footprint of not only reservoirs, pore space and resources, we have the processing plants. We have the pipelines and all of that necessary to further accelerate development of additional 2 billion barrels in our conventional reservoirs. And this, we haven't even been able to calculate yet what we could get from CO2-enhanced oil recovery in the shale.

我們今天所處的位置非常令人興奮，因為在二疊紀盆地，我們不僅擁有儲層、孔隙空間和資源，還擁有加工廠。我們擁有進一步加快常規油藏額外 20 億桶石油開發所需的管道和所有設備。我們甚至還無法計算出頁岩中二氧化碳強化石油採收率能帶來什麼。

But doing that in the Permian, doing that in the DJ Basin and the Powder River, that sets us up for decades to come of generating new reserves and production from existing reservoirs. And so really, it's tied to that. It's tied to being able to create value for our shareholders through the extended production of more reserves than what can typically be produced out of conventional or unconventional resources.

但在二疊紀、DJ 盆地和保德河做到這一點，將為我們在未來幾十年內從現有油藏中產生新的儲量和產量奠定基礎。事實上，這與此有關。它與能夠通過擴大生產比傳統或非常規資源通常可以生產的儲量更多的儲量來為我們的股東創造價值息息相關。

For example, in conventional reservoirs, with CO2, you can get up to 70% or better recovery. And whereas with just primary development, normally, you get 20% to 25% at most. So we can get better than 70% with CO2 flooding. In the unconventional where most companies will tell you that you'll get, at most, 10% to 12% recovery of the hydrocarbons from the shale play, but with CO2-enhanced oil recovery, we've tested it, we've run 4 pilots, and we now know that we can potentially get 75% additional recovery or maybe even double it.

例如，在常規油藏中，使用 CO2，您可以獲得高達 70% 或更高的採收率。而如果只是初級開發，通常情況下，您最多只能獲得 20% 到 25% 的收益。因此，我們可以通過 CO2 驅獲得比 70% 以上的效果。在非常規情況下，大多數公司會告訴您，您最多可以從頁岩油中回收 10% 至 12% 的碳氫化合物，但通過二氧化碳增強石油採收率，我們已經對其進行了測試，我們已經運行4 名飛行員，我們現在知道我們有可能獲得 75% 的額外恢復，甚至可能翻倍。

So we're sitting in a position now where we have a significant amount of future potential development. And we have it in the areas where we operate, the areas where we already have the infrastructure. So as we go forward, our incremental production and recoveries are just going to continue to be at lower and lower cost beyond the point where we were able to get these direct air capture facilities built.

因此，我們現在所處的位置，未來有很大的發展潛力。我們在我們經營的地區、我們已經擁有基礎設施的地區擁有它。因此，隨著我們的前進，我們的增量生產和回收成本將繼續以越來越低的成本超出我們能夠建造這些直接空氣捕獲設施的程度。

But what's also going to help us there, too, and help further lower cost is executing on our NET Power technology, which we're also an equity investor in. NET Power is a process that generates a lower cost of electricity by combusting hydrocarbons with oxygen, and it therefore spits off a pure stream of CO2 that -- and no other emissions. So we can take that CO2 and use it in our reservoirs. So it's essentially a lower-cost, emission-free electrical generation process for us.

但是，對我們也有幫助，並幫助進一步降低成本的是我們的 NET Power 技術的執行，我們也是該技術的股權投資者。NET Power 是一種通過燃燒碳氫化合物來產生較低電力成本的過程。氧氣，因此它會釋放出純淨的二氧化碳流，並且沒有其他排放。所以我們可以將二氧化碳用於我們的水庫。因此，這對我們來說本質上是一種成本更低、無排放的發電過程。

So we have a lot of ways as we go forward, and this is why we're incredibly excited, a lot of ways to get more oil out of the ground for lower cost. And so as we go forward, our cost structure will continue to decrease, not just from the debt reduction that Rob has talked about, but from the actual development and operations in the field.

因此，我們前進時有很多方法，這就是為什麼我們非常興奮，有很多方法可以以更低的成本從地下開採更多的石油。因此，隨著我們的前進，我們的成本結構將繼續下降，這不僅來自羅布談到的債務削減，還來自該領域的實際開發和運營。

And in addition to that, we will be able to provide aviation and maritime industries with a net carbon zero oil. So we're going to be the solution for actually aviation and maritime, and that's why United wanted to join with us on building this first direct air capture facility. So it's exciting for us.

除此之外，我們將能夠為航空和海運業提供淨零碳石油。因此，我們將成為實際航空和航海的解決方案，這就是為什麼美聯航希望與我們一起建造第一個直接空中捕獲設施。所以這對我們來說是令人興奮的。

Sorry, if I'm talking too long on this. I'll stop here and see if you have anything else to ask, but it's exciting for us. And we're really looking forward to being able to talk more about this. And as I said in my script, we can't yet because we're in the middle of some processes and some discussions and interactions with others. But we hope that in the fall or close to the end of the year, we will be able to share more about it and get you a model that you'll be able to see and understand at that point.

抱歉，如果我說得太長了。我會在這裡停下來看看您是否還有其他問題要問，但這對我們來說很令人興奮。我們真的很期待能夠更多地討論這個問題。正如我在腳本中所說，我們還不能，因為我們正處於一些流程、一些討論以及與其他人的互動之中。但我們希望在秋天或接近年底的時候，我們將能夠分享更多相關信息，並為您提供一個您屆時能夠看到和理解的模型。

The next question will come from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 提出。

Rob, I hate to speak on the cash breakeven question, but I want to go over the math with you real quick. $1.6 billion of free cash, obviously, before working capital. Annualized is $6.4 billion. $215 million per dollar is $30, and the average WTI price in Q1 was $57.61. So how do you get mid-30s? Even if I add back the Pref, that still only gets you to low 30s. What am I missing?

羅布，我不想談論現金收支平衡問題，但我想快速與您討論一下數學問題。顯然，在營運資金之前，有 16 億美元的自由現金。年化金額為 64 億美元。 2.15 億美元兌換 30 美元，第一季度 WTI 平均價格為 57.61 美元。那麼怎樣才能到30多歲呢？即使我加回 Pref，仍然只能讓你達到 30 分以下。我缺少什麼？

So I think that part of what is missing from that is certainly the CapEx and then also where, I would say the chemicals, their performance in Q1, as you can see in the guidance, is sustained throughout the year. The midstream inclusion in Q1 is more of a onetime event associated with winter storm Uri. So I think it's part of annualizing the Q1 numbers. That's what I would modify your analysis by.

因此，我認為其中缺少的部分肯定是資本支出，然後是化學品，它們在第一季度的表現，正如您在指導中看到的那樣，在全年中都能持續。第一季度的中游納入更多的是與冬季風暴“烏里”相關的一次性事件。所以我認為這是對第一季度數據進行年度化的一部分。這就是我要修改你的分析的內容。

I realize they're not repeatable, but still, delta is about $7. Okay. I'll take it offline. My follow-up is, Vicki, I guess it's a regular question every quarter. The disposal update, a little bit more progress this time, but still a long way to go to get to the $2 billion to $3 billion. Can you give us any color on timing and visibility at this point?

我意識到它們是不可重複的，但 Delta 仍然約為 7 美元。好的。我會把它離線。我的後續行動是，Vicki，我想這是每個季度的常規問題。處置更新，這次取得了一些進展，但距離 20 億至 30 億美元還有很長的路要走。您能否就時間和可見性向我們提供一些信息？

Yes. I would say that if I include the unsolicited offers that we've gotten, we currently have offers in hand that would get us well above the $2 billion minimum target. However, in this environment, we expect to -- that we would -- we'll meet the $2 billion. But whether or not we go above the $2 billion really depends on how the macro continues to look for us. And then everything that we're getting in and every divestiture that we have the potential to do, we always want to evaluate what it delivers for us versus what the cash flow in the future would generate.

是的。我想說的是，如果我把我們收到的主動提供的報價也包括在內，我們目前手頭的報價將使我們遠高於 20 億美元的最低目標。然而，在這種環境下，我們預計——我們會——實現 20 億美元的目標。但我們能否突破 20 億美元實際上取決於宏觀經濟對我們的影響。然後，我們正在參與的所有事情以及我們有潛力進行的每一次剝離，我們總是想評估它為我們帶來了什麼以及未來會產生什麼現金流。

So it's a value proposition for us. And it's also ensuring that -- the other part of the consideration is making sure that we have enough cash flow to meet our debt maturities and even to go beyond that to, as Rob was saying, to deal with the interest rate swaps and some other minor costs that we have. So it's all about lowering our cost structure, making sure that we maximize our higher-margin cash flow, keep that intact.

所以這對我們來說是一個價值主張。它還確保——考慮的另一部分是確保我們有足夠的現金流來滿足我們的債務到期日，甚至超越這一點，正如羅布所說，處理利率掉期和其他一些問題我們的小額成本。因此，這一切都是為了降低我們的成本結構，確保我們最大限度地提高利潤率較高的現金流，並保持其完好無損。

So we still have Ghana -- we have not announced any others that we have, but we do have a couple of -- several things actually in process, a couple that are higher priorities for us to do. One is Ghana, as we've talked about it before. But because we have several processes running now, we feel comfortable that we'll get to the $2 billion. And then going beyond that, it's really going to be a preference based on -- and a decision based on the valuation.

因此，我們還有加納——我們還沒有宣布我們有任何其他國家，但我們確實有幾件事——幾件事實際上正在進行中，其中幾件事對我們來說是更優先要做的。其中之一是加納，正如我們之前討論過的。但由於我們現在有多個流程正在運行，因此我們對達到 20 億美元感到放心。除此之外，這實際上將是基於估值的偏好和基於估值的決策。

The next question will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的尼爾·梅塔提出。

I just wanted to build on the cash flow questions from the quarter. Can you just walk us through again why the cash flow -- working capital number was so large? And then how should we think about the reversal? A lot of this just sounds like timing stuff, and certainly export barrels will eventually hit their final destination. So I would think a lot would come back, but just walk us through that.

我只是想以本季度的現金流問題為基礎。您能否再次向我們介紹一下為什麼現金流量（營運資金）如此之大？那麼我們應該如何看待逆轉呢？其中很多聽起來像是計時的東西，當然出口桶最終會到達最終目的地。所以我認為很多東西都會回來，但請引導我們經歷一下。

Yes. Sure, Neil. Happy to do that for you. So if you look at a typical first quarter, we would historically see a somewhat significant draw in the first quarter because of the -- but it was certainly more sizable in the first quarter of this year.

是的。當然，尼爾。很高興為您做這件事。因此，如果你看一下典型的第一季度，從歷史上看，我們會看到第一季度出現了一些顯著的平局，因為——但今年第一季度的規模肯定更大。

When you go back to 2018, Q1 draw of about $700 million. In 2019, it was about $900 million. And for the opposite reasons for this quarter 2020, it was about $200 million draw because with price going the opposite direction, obviously, in March when the pandemic hit and with the price wars going on. So regardless, the $1.3 billion draw we experienced in the first quarter does and is exceptionally large. The majority of that was driven by the change in commodity prices. It was the timing difference between revenue recognition and cash received.

當你回到 2018 年時，第一季度的支出約為 7 億美元。 2019年約為9億美元。由於 2020 年本季度的相反原因，大約有 2 億美元的資金被抽走，因為價格顯然在 3 月份大流行爆發且價格戰仍在繼續時朝著相反的方向發展。因此，無論如何，我們在第一季度經歷的 13 億美元的支出確實非常大。其中大部分是由大宗商品價格變化推動的。這是收入確認和收到現金之間的時間差異。

So at the end of 2020, WTI was about $48 a barrel, and it was $61 a barrel at the end of March. And so this price increase of 30% impacts both our AR balances and our inventory significantly, especially when you consider our midstream business and how many barrels are on the water at any given point in time. And even that's a bit exacerbated because we discussed a bit last time that Europe essentially has been shut down a significant cargoes of oil from the Gulf since the third quarter of last year. And as a result, we've had to change our mix or portfolio of export shipments, which are now, for the most part, heavily weighted to -- it's not exclusively weighted to shipments to Asia, which is longer voyages, more crude on the water longer because of the transit times.

所以2020年底，WTI約為每桶48美元，3月底為每桶61美元。因此，30% 的價格上漲會對我們的 AR 餘額和庫存產生重大影響，特別是當您考慮我們的中游業務以及在任何給定時間點有多少桶水面時。甚至這種情況也有點加劇，因為我們上次討論過，自去年第三季度以來，歐洲基本上已經關閉了來自海灣的大量石油貨物。因此，我們不得不改變我們的出口運輸組合或投資組合，現在，在很大程度上，這些出口運輸的權重不完全是對亞洲的運輸，亞洲的航程更長，原油更多。由於運輸時間較長，水的時間更長。

And then obviously, compared to other years, we have a pretty modest capital budget. And so we're not creating a significant amount of payables or capital spending. And so when you look at it, it's a combination of the price impacts, coupled with all those first quarter events like the financial interest payments, the payments for property taxes, we made a significant contribution to the APC pension plan during the first quarter, and then -- so we put it all together, we do expect, as you pointed out, as receivables start to come in, that some of that will reverse as the year goes on.

顯然，與其他年份相比，我們的資本預算相當有限。因此，我們不會產生大量應付賬款或資本支出。因此，當你看到它時，你會發現這是價格影響的結合，再加上所有第一季度的事件，例如財務利息支付、財產稅支付，我們在第一季度為 APC 養老金計劃做出了重大貢獻，然後，我們將所有這些放在一起，正如您所指出的，我們確實預計，隨著應收賬款開始增加，隨著時間的推移，其中一些情況將會逆轉。

Is it fair to assume Q2 should be a decent working cash -- working capital cash inflow, all else equal then?

假設第二季度應該是一個體面的營運現金——營運資本現金流入，那麼其他條件都相同嗎？

Again, it depends largely on what happen to the price going into the second quarter also. But we would expect it to.

同樣，這在很大程度上也取決於進入第二季度的價格變化。但我們希望如此。

And the follow-up is just on the chemicals business. Obviously, margins are really strong, so just get your guys a big picture view of where we are in the chemical cycle and how your business fits into that?

後續只是化學品業務。顯然，利潤率非常高，因此請讓您的員工全面了解我們在化學循環中的位置以及您的業務如何融入其中？

Yes. So absolutely, nothing happy to do than talk about our chemical business, which had an excellent start to the year. When you look at the chemical business, it has both some impacts from winter storm Uri, to some extent, but also because how winter storm Uri impacted the overall business itself.

是的。因此，絕對沒有什麼比談論我們的化學業務更令人高興的了，該業務今年開局良好。當你看化工業務時，它在某種程度上既受到冬季風暴“烏里”的影響，也因為冬季風暴“烏里”對整個業務本身的影響。

And so chlor-alkali production struggled significantly in March post storm. If you think about Uri, it had a much wider impact than any individual hurricane we had in the past. And so you still have a lot of inspections, et cetera, going on, restarts going in the month of March. And that has extended into after a very difficult hurricane season last year. And so going into the end of 2020, we already had a pretty tight supply-demand balance in the second half of the year. And that was coupled with a pretty significant amount of demand. As you know, building products are in very high demand right now. So our PVC demand and margins were significant already going into the year.

因此，氯鹼生產在 3 月份風暴過後明顯陷入困境。如果你想想烏里，它的影響比我們過去經歷過的任何一場颶風都要廣泛得多。所以你仍然有很多檢查，等等，正在進行中，在三月份重新開始。這種情況一直延續到去年非常困難的颶風季節之後。因此，進入2020年底，下半年的供需平衡已經相當緊張。與此同時，還有相當大的需求量。如您所知，目前建築產品的需求量非常大。因此，今年我們的 PVC 需求和利潤率已經很高。

And so if you look at our operating rates as an industry, they're only about 71.5% for the first quarter of '21, whereas last year, they were 89%. And so the combination of the stronger demand, coupled with the production off-line to start the year, has already tightened up an already tight supply-demand balance.

因此，如果你看一下我們整個行業的開工率，21 年第一季度的開工率僅為 71.5% 左右，而去年為 89%。因此，強勁的需求加上年初的生產停產，已經使本已緊張的供需平衡更加緊張。

And so in the case of PVC, construction investment is very strong. Demand is expected to remain strong, with the housing starts outlook, low mortgage rates, a lot of emphasis on remodeling, et cetera, right now that is driving PVC demand. So PVC demand domestically is up almost 5% compared to the same period in 2020, which drives down the amount of PVC that's actually being exported. And exports were actually down about 30% compared to the same period last year.

因此，就 PVC 而言，建設投資非常強勁。預計需求將保持強勁，新屋開工前景、低抵押貸款利率、對改造的大力重視等因素正在推動 PVC 需求。因此，與 2020 年同期相比，國內 PVC 需求增長了近 5%，這導致 PVC 實際出口量下降。與去年同期相比，出口實際上下降了約30%。

And so with resin tight in the domestic market, we're able to expand margins, just like we would in our commodity under a tight supply-demand balance. And then what we're seeing in the caustic soda business is whereas previously when we guided, we anticipated to start -- we're seeing caustic soda bottom, and we thought we would start to see improvements in the second half of the year, Uri has pulled that forward a bit. And so now we're seeing caustic soda prices improve in the second quarter as we move forward. So we're just getting more of that as the year goes on. And so we're expecting not only continued high margins in the PVC business and resilient demand through the balance of the year as construction continues to pull. I mean, PVC's really different. We're seeing prices of wood and everything else. We'll also see caustic soda benefit from that process at all.

因此，在國內市場樹脂緊張的情況下，我們能夠擴大利潤，就像我們在供需緊張的情況下擴大大宗商品的利潤一樣。然後我們在燒鹼業務中看到的是，而之前當我們指導時，我們預計會開始 - 我們看到燒鹼觸底，我們認為我們會在下半年開始看到改善，烏里將這一點向前推進了一點。因此，隨著我們的前進，現在我們看到燒鹼價格在第二季度有所改善。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會得到更多這樣的東西。因此，我們預計 PVC 業務不僅將持續保持高利潤率，而且隨著建築工程的繼續拉動，今年剩餘時間的需求也將保持彈性。我的意思是，PVC 確實不同。我們看到木材和其他所有東西的價格。我們還將看到燒鹼從該過程中受益。

And as Vicki mentioned, Oxy's significant amount of other derivatives beyond just PVC that we sell gives the company a lot more variability in the molecules that it can sell, produce additional caustic soda and produce additional value in other parts of the chlorine chain, which is going to expand our ability to increase the value delivered by the business. I just -- it's the reason why we talk about how much value is locked in the chemical business and why when people talk to us about the chemical business a lot of times and why we don't see something different with it is because it's just hard for people to grasp with a small commodity chemical business that can turn out these types of cash flow on this asset base. And it's really -- it's a remarkable business.

正如 Vicki 提到的，除了我們銷售的 PVC 之外，Oxy 還擁有大量其他衍生物，這使得該公司可以銷售的分子具有更多的可變性，可以生產額外的燒鹼，並在氯鏈的其他部分產生附加價值，即將擴大我們增加業務交付價值的能力。我只是 - 這就是為什麼我們談論化工業務鎖定了多少價值，為什麼當人們多次與我們談論化工業務以及為什麼我們沒有看到它有什麼不同的原因是因為它只是人們很難理解小型商品化學品企業能夠在這種資產基礎上產生這些類型的現金流。這確實是一項了不起的業務。

The next question will come from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

下一個問題將由巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai 提出。

My first question probably maybe for Rob. I just want to make sure I heard your comments right in the prepared remarks. So getting down to the mid-$20 billion range on gross debt, that's where you think you need to be to hit IG status at mid-cycle prices. And I think ultimately, that's an important goal for you all. So about $10 billion more to go from there. Can you just remind us what your view of mid-cycle prices are at this point? And how does this jive with your prior target of 3x leverage as the trigger for growth, which I think was also at mid-cycle prices?

我的第一個問題可能是問羅布的。我只是想確保我在準備好的發言中聽到了您的評論。因此，當總債務降至 200 億美元左右時，您認為需要以中期價格達到 IG 狀態。我認為最終，這對你們所有人來說都是一個重要的目標。因此，接下來還需要大約 100 億美元。您能否提醒我們您目前對中期價格的看法？這與您之前以 3 倍槓桿作為增長觸發因素的目標（我認為這也是在周期中期的價格）是否相符？

Yes. It's around the $50 range. And if you look at the price decks that are being used by a lot of rate agencies, they're in the high 40s right now to look to close to $50. They're not -- so they don't move their price decks with the current environment of being in the mid- to high -- low 60s. And so that makes a significant difference on where that breakeven location is at.

是的。大約在 50 美元範圍內。如果您查看許多利率機構使用的價格表，您會發現它們目前處於 40 多美元的高位，接近 50 美元。他們沒有——所以他們不會根據當前處於中高——低60年代的環境來調整他們的價格。因此，這對盈虧平衡點的位置產生了重大影響。

And so is it exactly $10 billion? Obviously, there's a lot of different things to factor, as I indicated in my remarks, but it's somewhere in the neighborhood of that. It's somewhere -- other things will go into that. It could mitigate it to be a little higher than that would be possible or even a little lower than that. But obviously, there's a lot of things that go into it, but it's somewhere in that range.

那麼它到底是 100 億美元嗎？顯然，正如我在評論中指出的那樣，有很多不同的因素需要考慮，但都在附近的某個地方。它在某個地方——其他的事情會涉及到它。它可以將其降低到比可能的值稍高一點，甚至比可能的值低一點。但顯然，其中涉及很多東西，但都在這個範圍內。

So even though that you can probably move forward and get pretty close to that or lower that 3x in your model for the second half of the year. But by the end of the year, based on -- if current oil prices were to continue, it's not that price deck that we're going to be considered for investment-grade.

因此，儘管如此，您可能會在下半年在模型中繼續前進並非常接近這一目標或降低 3 倍。但到今年年底，如果目前的油價繼續下去，我們將不會考慮投資級的價格。

Okay. Got it. So in terms of the moving pieces on -- my follow-up is in terms of the moving pieces on the medium-term goals, there's a few, there's sustainable dividend, there's growth capital. Now we kind of have a bogey roughly on gross debt. So how do we think of the trade-off for all of those things? And it will take some time to reduce the debt. We've got the preferreds, but you do have like very healthy oil prices as well as asset sales that are coming in. So I'm just kind of wondering, when we're looking at our free cash flow profile and the new debt targets, when we can kind of revisit the growth conversation versus the dividend and paying off other things?

好的。知道了。因此，就中期目標的動態部分而言，我的後續行動是，有一些，有可持續的股息，有增長資本。現在，我們在總債務方面遇到了一個大忌。那麼我們如何考慮所有這些事情的權衡呢？減少債務還需要一些時間。我們有優先選擇，但確實有非常健康的油價以及即將到來的資產出售。所以我只是想知道，當我們查看我們的自由現金流狀況和新債務時目標，我們什麼時候可以重新審視增長與股息和償還其他事情的對話？

Yes. So Jeanine, I would say that, obviously, as with Vicki's remarks, we're squarely focused on the leverage reduction right now and looking at opportunity to get down to that investment-grade type level. Embodied in that is going to be using the proceeds, both from the free cash flow from the business, using the proceeds from divestitures that take place and combine those 2 things together to reduce the cost -- what we have outstanding. And that can be through a host of different things, as I discussed on remarks, between what we're evaluating near term on the ability to put that cash to work to reduce debt.

是的。所以，珍妮，我想說，顯然，正如維基的言論一樣，我們現在完全專注於槓桿率的降低，並尋找機會降至投資級類型的水平。具體體現為將使用來自業務自由現金流的收益，以及使用剝離所產生的收益，並將這兩件事結合在一起以降低成本——我們未償付的成本。正如我在評論中討論的那樣，這可以通過許多不同的事情來實現，包括我們正在評估的短期內將現金用於減少債務的能力。

That conversation will eventually rotate over into medium-term priorities, focusing on the dividend. But we haven't established a policy on what the dividend might look like. It's going to need to be sustainable, as we've indicated in our priorities. So it could be a combination of something that's fixed and some variable component. We haven't decided on that at this point. But that conversation will come at the -- after we made more progress on our debt reduction.

該對話最終將轉向中期優先事項，重點關注股息。但我們尚未就股息的形式製定政策。正如我們在優先事項中指出的那樣，它需要是可持續的。因此，它可能是固定組件和可變組件的組合。目前我們還沒有決定。但這種對話將在我們在債務削減方面取得更多進展之後進行。

I would just add to that. We have this great production profile right now. And with the production profile that we have, the chemicals business supporting it, that what we're really focused on is margin expansion. We have lots of opportunity for that, and that's what we're most excited about. So there will be continuing shareholder value growth through margin expansion.

我想補充一點。我們現在擁有如此出色的生產資料。憑藉我們現有的生產概況和支持它的化學品業務，我們真正關注的是利潤擴張。我們有很多機會做到這一點，這也是我們最興奮的。因此，通過利潤率擴張，股東價值將持續增長。

The next question will come from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特提出。

So my first one kind of builds actually on that last point, Vicki, on margin expansion and just the comments you had in the prepared remarks as well on cost reductions. You had said that you were able to identify some cost-reduction opportunities in the quarter that offset some of the winter storm impacts. I was wondering if you could comment just whether that was deferrals or more structural reductions?

因此，我的第一個實際上是建立在最後一點的基礎上的，Vicki，關於利潤擴張以及您在準備好的評論中的評論以及關於降低成本的評論。您曾說過，您能夠在本季度找到一些降低成本的機會，從而抵消一些冬季風暴的影響。我想知道您能否評論一下這是延期還是更多的結構性削減？

And then as part of that, as we think about the margin expansion opportunities going forward, are you still identifying things like upside with contribution from the Anadarko transaction? Or maybe said another way, is there still more room to run on reducing the cost structure here? And what are some of the levers to drive that cost structure down?

然後，作為其中的一部分，當我們考慮未來的利潤擴張機會時，您是否仍然認為阿納達科交易的貢獻帶來了上行空間？或者換句話說，在降低成本結構方面還有更大的空間嗎？有哪些槓桿可以降低成本結構？

Yes, you're right. There's more opportunities to continue to reduce our cost structure in both capital and OpEx. And one example I'll give is we went back recently and took a look at our drilling performance between 2015 up through what we're doing in 2021. And I can tell you, we rolled out our physics and logistics space, Oxy Drilling Dynamics in our domestic operations in 2015 and then rolled it out internationally in late 2016.

你是對的。我們有更多機會繼續降低資本和運營支出的成本結構。我舉的一個例子是，我們最近回顧了 2015 年至 2021 年的鑽井表現。我可以告訴你，我們推出了物理和物流空間，Oxy Drilling Dynamics 2015 年在我們的國內業務中推出，然後於 2016 年底在國際上推廣。

And I think I said before, we haven't seen an area where we've rolled this out that we haven't had about a 20% to 30% reduction in our cost. And the exciting thing in looking at our data today is we've decreased our drilling cost from $200 a foot back in 2015 to $135 a foot in 2021 for our global drilling. That's everything around the world.

我想我之前說過，我們推出這項技術的領域中，我們的成本沒有降低 20% 到 30%。今天查看數據時令人興奮的是，我們的全球鑽井成本已從 2015 年的每英尺 200 美元降低到 2021 年的每英尺 135 美元。這就是世界各地的一切。

And so we've individually pointed out the performance improvements in the Permian, but we've not only seen it in the Permian. We've seen it in the DJ, in the Powder River. And now Oman is seeing a lot of good things happening there by using this process, and it's proprietary to us. We developed it.

因此，我們單獨指出了二疊紀的性能改進，但我們不僅在二疊紀看到了它。我們在 Powder River 的 DJ 中看到過它。現在，阿曼通過使用這個流程看到了很多好事，而且它是我們專有的。我們開發了它。

So it's making a difference. We've also started deploying it to the Gulf of Mexico and seeing some good things there that we'll be able to quantify and report on here in the near future.

所以它有所作為。我們還開始將其部署到墨西哥灣，並在那裡看到了一些好東西，我們將能夠在不久的將來在這裡量化和報告。

So it's drilling. On the drilling side, it's still -- and I will say before I leave drilling, some people might say that you probably got all that and right now, we're not improving. From 2019 to 2020, even in the downturn, we improved by 14% what we were doing there. So there's -- the improvement is happening even today. So far this year, we've improved by about 4% only 1 quarter into it. This is as we were picking up rigs. So this is -- what we're doing there is working. But also on the completion side, we're still setting records for how many fracs we can do in a 24-hour period, and so that's improving.

所以這是鑽孔。在鑽探方面，它仍然 - 我會說，在我離開鑽探之前，有些人可能會說你可能已經得到了所有這些，但現在我們沒有改進。從 2019 年到 2020 年，即使在經濟低迷時期，我們的業績也提高了 14%。所以，即使在今天，這種改進仍在發生。今年到目前為止，僅 1 個季度，我們的業績就提高了約 4%。這是我們拿起鑽機時的情況。所以這就是——我們正在做的事情正在發揮作用。但在完井方面，我們仍在創造 24 小時內可完成壓裂次數的記錄，因此情況正在改善。

The other thing we're seeing is that our Permian team, every one of them actually is continuing to work on the subsurface model. And this has been a point of extreme emphasis for us because of the variation in the shale play. So we started really enhancing our subsurface expertise about 6 or 7 years ago and working hard to get that to where we needed it to be.

我們看到的另一件事是，我們的二疊紀團隊實際上每個人都在繼續研究地下模型。由於頁岩油藏的變化，這一點一直是我們極其重視的一點。因此，大約六七年前，我們開始真正增強我們的地下專業知識，並努力將其達到我們需要的水平。

We have some incredible people in-house that now do that work. And what we've learned in the shale play, we've extended also to looking at conventional and to doing more with seismic. And part of that was driven by the good efforts that the Anadarko staff had accomplished and achieved with some of the 3D seismic. And our team, some of our domestic people started looking at how others were doing things and taking what others are doing and made it better.

我們內部有一些令人難以置信的人現在正在從事這項工作。我們在頁岩氣勘探中學到的知識，也擴展到了傳統勘探領域，並在地震方面做了更多的工作。其中部分原因是阿納達科工作人員在一些 3D 地震方面所取得的成就和成果。我們的團隊，我們國內的一些人開始研究其他人是如何做事的，並藉鑑其他人正在做的事情並使其變得更好。

So every phase of what we're doing, we're trying to do better. And we're seeing still continuing improvement. Oman is using what they call an Oxy jetting system where in existing wells, they can go in and jet with a process that ensures maximum contact with the reservoir through each phase of the jetting process, both in vertical and horizontal wells. That's delivering better recovery from the existing reservoirs, too. And to me, the more you can get out of the reservoir that you've developed, the better off you are and even better when you can go back into existing wells and get more out of those.

因此，我們所做的每個階段都在努力做得更好。我們看到仍在持續改進。阿曼正在使用他們所謂的氧氣噴射系統，在現有的井中，他們可以進入並噴射，確保在噴射過程的每個階段與儲層最大限度地接觸，無論是在垂直井還是水平井中。這也使現有水庫的採收率得到了提高。對我來說，您從已開發的油藏中獲得的資源越多，您的生活就越好，當您可以返回現有油井並從這些油井中獲得更多資源時，情況就更好。

So I'm quite confident that we will continue on both the OpEx side and the drilling side, completion side and facilities to continue to lower our cost. Our teams are driven to do it and did it even during this pandemic and did it in a big way.

因此，我非常有信心，我們將繼續在運營支出方面、鑽井方面、完井方面和設施方面繼續降低我們的成本。我們的團隊有動力去做這件事，即使在這場大流行期間也做到了，而且做得很大。

So I think in New Mexico, in several of the areas that they worked really hard there, they lowered our breakeven on some of those areas by $10 a barrel. So all of that's incredibly encouraging for what we have going forward, considering the footprint that we have in the areas that we know the best.

因此，我認為在新墨西哥州，在他們非常努力工作的幾個領域，他們將我們在其中一些領域的盈虧平衡點降低了每桶 10 美元。因此，考慮到我們在我們最了解的領域所擁有的足跡，所有這些對我們未來的發展都是令人難以置信的鼓舞。

And I think I'd just add to that. I mean, it's just -- I think that when you hear about all the exciting things underlying the business that Vicki talks about, and I know externally that the thesis of paying down debt seems incredibly boring for an external thesis. That's part of the reason why we're working so hard and committed to this and getting it behind us, so that, truly, that we can focus on the story of the company being beyond that, and what is going to be.

我想我只想補充一下。我的意思是，這只是 - 我認為當你聽到維姬談論的業務背後的所有令人興奮的事情時，我知道從外部來看，償還債務的論文對於外部論文來說似乎非常無聊。這就是我們如此努力工作、致力於這一目標並將其拋在身後的部分原因，這樣，我們才能真正專注於公司超越這一目標的故事以及未來的發展。

We do fully expect that when debt goes down, it will translate into equity value, in the total enterprise value, which is good for our shareholders. But we understand that talking about reducing debt doesn't seem to totally exciting. But there's something exciting going on. And at times, we miss the fact of all the great things that we continue to break through what we thought was the best we could do before, we've beat it successively since the acquisition.

我們確實完全期望，當債務下降時，它將轉化為企業總價值中的股權價值，這對我們的股東有利。但我們知道談論減少債務似乎並不完全令人興奮。但有一些令人興奮的事情正在發生。有時，我們錯過了所有偉大的事情的事實，即我們繼續突破我們認為是我們之前能做到的最好的事情，自收購以來我們已經連續擊敗了它。

Yes. No, that all definitely makes a lot of sense. And I think the progress forward and line of sight on the debt reduction is definitely a good story as well.

是的。不，這一切絕對很有意義。我認為債務削減方面的進展和視線也絕對是一個好故事。

And maybe then shifting focus to some of the other initiatives. I know carbon capture and low carbon, you spoke a few times already, but I have one follow-up there. As we think about the milestones from here to reaching FID on some of these potential projects, including the direct air capture project in the Permian, can you just walk us through what's remaining there? It sounds like policy and financing isn't one of the milestones at this point. But what are we looking for in order to bring that project to fruition?

也許然後會將重點轉移到其他一些舉措上。我了解碳捕獲和低碳，您已經說過幾次了，但我有一個後續行動。當我們思考從這裡到某些潛在項目（包括二疊紀直接空氣捕獲項目）達到最終投資決定的里程碑時，您能否向我們介紹一下那裡還剩下什麼？聽起來政策和融資並不是目前的里程碑之一。但為了使該項目取得成果，我們要尋找什麼？

Well, the big step was to select our engineering and construction partner. We did. That's Worley. So the FEED process is ongoing now, front-end engineering. So we're working that now. We expect to have FID early next year and start construction by the end of next year.

嗯，重要的一步是選擇我們的工程和施工合作夥伴。我們做到了。那是沃利。因此，FEED 流程現在正在進行中，即前端工程。所以我們現在正在努力。我們預計明年初完成最終投資決定，並於明年底開工建設。

So I don't see that there would be anything, barring some weird macro thing happen to us, that would change our schedule right now. Our teams are -- what they have done, our major projects team led by Ken Dillon, along with Worley, they've put together a sub team that as the front-end engineering is happening, they're looking for ways to -- already ways to optimize the designs as they're in progress.

所以我不認為會有任何事情，除非我們發生一些奇怪的宏觀事情，這會改變我們現在的日程安排。我們的團隊是——他們所做的，我們的主要項目團隊由 Ken Dillon 和 Worley 領導，他們組建了一個子團隊，隨著前端工程的進行，他們正在尋找方法——在設計過程中已經有了優化設計的方法。

And so I'm really excited that the first one, I believe, is going to be surprising to some people in terms of its design and how we're going to be able to build it. There are some things already in process around deciding how do you do this at a faster pace and on a larger scale as we go forward. Some of that work is in place. But I do expect that there's -- that we will begin construction at the end of next year. And I don't see anything in the way of stopping that right now.

因此，我真的很興奮，我相信第一個項目的設計以及我們將如何構建它會讓一些人感到驚訝。隨著我們的前進，關於如何以更快的速度、更大規模地做到這一點，一些事情已經在進行中。其中一些工作已經到位。但我確實預計我們將在明年年底開始施工。我現在看不出有什麼可以阻止這種情況。

The next question will come from Leo Mariani with KeyBanc.

下一個問題將由 KeyBanc 的 Leo Mariani 提出。

Guys, wanted to hear, it looks like your first quarter CapEx did come in quite a bit below expectations. And if you just annualize that number, it looks like it's quite a bit below budget on the year. Just wanted to get a sense, what was driving the lower first quarter CapEx? And just wasn't sure if maybe there were some costs or some expenditures that shifted from 1Q into other quarters? And kind of how you guys are feeling about this $2.9 billion budget?

伙計們，想听聽，看來你們第一季度的資本支出確實比預期低了很多。如果你只是將這個數字按年計算，看起來會比當年的預算低很多。只是想了解一下，是什麼導致第一季度資本支出較低？只是不確定是否有一些成本或支出從第一季度轉移到其他季度？你們對這 29 億美元的預算有何感想？

Part of it was driven by the ramp-up, and we will have our highest spend capital quarter next quarter. So if you average the 2, it's going to -- that's going to be -- first half spending will be about the same as second half spending, maybe slightly less.

部分原因是產能擴張，下個季度我們將迎來資本支出最高的季度。因此，如果你對 2 進行平均，那麼上半年的支出將與下半年的支出大致相同，甚至可能略少一些。

But generally speaking, mover parts, this is a part of the start-up process. And then we had a little bit of a delay on some of our activities as a result of the storms. So some things moved from Q1 into Q2.

但一般來說，動子部分，這是啟動過程的一部分。然後，由於暴風雨，我們的一些活動稍微延遲了。所以有些事情從第一季度轉移到了第二季度。

Yes. Certainly...

是的。當然...

Okay. That's very clear.

好的。這非常清楚。

Look, what Vicki said when she said next quarter, Q2 would be our highest.

看，當 Vicki 說下季度第二季度將是我們的最高水平時，她是怎麼說的。

Yes.

是的。

Highest spend. And you can see that with Permian, where we only spent a couple of hundred million in the first quarter of its $1.2 billion. So you can definitely see that.

最高支出。你可以看到二疊紀盆地的情況，我們在第一季度僅花費了 12 億美元中的幾億美元。所以你絕對可以看到這一點。

Okay. That's very clear. And then just a question on the Midstream for the year. Obviously, a very strong first quarter. You guys enumerated some of the reasons why in the press release and in the prepared comments. But just looking at your second quarter Midstream guide, obviously, you're expecting a loss. When I look at it, it's not a big loss, kind of a small one. If I just add kind of the first quarter benefit, the second quarter loss, you're expecting, let's call it, roughly breakeven.

好的。這非常清楚。然後是關於今年中游的問題。顯然，第一季度非常強勁。你們在新聞稿和準備好的評論中列舉了一些原因。但只要看看第二季度的中游指南，顯然，您預計會出現虧損。我一看，這不算是一個大損失，而是一個小損失。如果我只加上第一季度的收益和第二季度的虧損，你會期望，我們稱之為大致盈虧平衡。

When I look at your full year Midstream guidance, you're still expecting a very large loss, kind of implying significant loss in the second half of '21. Can you kind of just explain a little bit the dynamic there in terms of what you might be expecting later this year?

當我查看你們全年中游指引時，你們仍然預計會出現非常大的虧損，這有點意味著 21 年下半年會出現重大虧損。您能否根據今年晚些時候的預期稍微解釋一下那裡的動態？

Sure, Leo. I think if I understand what you're saying, if you look at the first quarter, we beat our guide by $234 million. And then we raised the full year outlook $200 million. So basically, last quarter to this quarter, we're expecting a deterioration of about $34 million on the remaining 3 quarters.

當然，利奧。我想，如果我理解你的意思，如果你看看第一季度，我們就超出了指導值 2.34 億美元。然後我們將全年預期上調了 2 億美元。因此，基本上，從上個季度到本季度，我們預計剩餘 3 個季度的業績將惡化約 3400 萬美元。

And basically, what's driving that is our view on gas differentials and on our oil export differentials. So if you look at -- and I think we talked about this a bit before, when differentials collapse, that helps our upstream business because realizations get better, but it hurts our midstream business. And so that's the piece you have going on. So most of the benefit of the Q1 rolls through to the year, and then you get a little bit of change for the remaining quarters, primarily driven by that differential collapsing.

基本上，推動這一趨勢的是我們對天然氣差異和石油出口差異的看法。因此，如果你看一下——我想我們之前討論過這一點，當差異崩潰時，這有助於我們的上游業務，因為實現變得更好，但這會損害我們的中游業務。這就是你要做的事情。因此，第一季度的大部分收益都會延續到今年，然後在剩下的季度中你會得到一些變化，這主要是由差異崩潰推動的。

The next question will come from Raphael DuBois with Societe Generale.

下一個問題將由法國興業銀行的拉斐爾·杜波依斯提出。

It's about the DAC plant that you intend to FID. You mentioned a couple of conf calls ago that you will benefit through OxyChem. Can you maybe share with us how -- what quantity of caustic soda will be required for this very first plant? And looking forward, do you think it could be any issue to access caustic soda to deploy this technology?

這是關於您打算 FID 的 DAC 工廠。您之前在幾次會議電話會議上提到您將通過 OxyChem 受益。您能否與我們分享一下，第一座工廠需要多少燒鹼？展望未來，您認為使用燒鹼來部署這項技術會出現什麼問題嗎？

Vicki and I can kind of tag team this a little bit. But I would say -- so first of all, the working fluid and the direct air capture unit is caustic potash, not caustic soda. So it's KOH, not NaOH, but we haven't disclosed utilization or what that first fill volume might be or like the first direct air capture unit moving forward.

維琪和我可以有點像標記團隊。但我想說 - 首先，工作流體和直接空氣捕獲裝置是苛性鉀，而不是苛性蘇打。所以它是 KOH，而不是 NaOH，但我們還沒有透露利用率或第一個填充體積可能是多少，或者像前進的第一個直接空氣捕獲單元一樣。

Yes. Just to repeat, we're still in the engineering phase of that and still optimizing it. So we probably would not have that information until the end of this year.

是的。重複一遍，我們仍處於工程階段並仍在對其進行優化。因此，我們可能要到今年年底才能獲得該信息。

Another thing I would mention to you is the other piece is the majority of the infrastructure inside the actual direct air capture unit is also PVC, which obviously, there's a synergy with the OxyChem business on the amount of PVC that goes inside the direct air capture unit.

我要向您提到的另一件事是，另一件事是實際直接空氣捕獲裝置內的大部分基礎設施也是 PVC，顯然，與 OxyChem 業務在直接空氣捕獲裝置內部的 PVC 量方面存在協同作用單元。

The next question will come from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

下一個問題將由豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 提出。

Looking in Permian, I think one of your competitors talking about they're going to move more into the 3 miles wells. Just curious that in your plan, is that something that you guys were trying to do or that you don't think is suitable for you?

看看二疊紀盆地，我認為你們的一位競爭對手正在談論他們將向 3 英里的油井中開採更多石油。只是好奇在你的計劃中，這是你們想要做的事情還是你認為不適合你的事情？

And also, your talk about on the CO2 spotting in the unconventional side. So when we're looking at your prospect inventory, what percentage of your inventory that you think is applicable in here? So that's the first question.

另外，您談到了非常規方面的二氧化碳觀測。那麼，當我們查看您的潛在庫存時，您認為此處適用的庫存百分比是多少？這是第一個問題。

The second question is that at some point that you would bring down your debt and once you reach that mid-$20 billion range, what's the objective for your Oman, Algeria and Gulf of Mexico operation? Is that still trying to just maintain the production relatively steady? Or are you trying to grow over there?

第二個問題是，在某個時候，您會減少債務，一旦達到 200 億美元左右的範圍，您在阿曼、阿爾及利亞和墨西哥灣的業務的目標是什麼？是否仍試圖維持產量相對穩定？或者你想在那裡成長？

Paul, could you just clarify for me? When you were asking the first question, you mentioned that our competitors are doing something. And then you were asking if we were doing the same. Could you clarify what that was again?

保羅，你能幫我解釋一下嗎？當你問第一個問題時，你提到我們的競爭對手正在做一些事情。然後你問我們是否也在做同樣的事情。你能再澄清一下那是什麼嗎？

At least one of your competitors is talking about they are drilling the lateral length, that 3 miles or 15,000 feet well. So just curious that given your position, is that something you guys found that is capital-efficient and productive for use to push for the 3 miles? Or that you don't think it's applicable to you?

您的至少一位競爭對手錶示，他們正在鑽橫向長度的井，即 3 英里或 15,000 英尺的井。所以只是好奇，考慮到你們的立場，你們是否發現這種東西對於推動 3 英里來說是資本效率高且富有成效的？或者您認為它不適合您？

I think that it's always important to not put yourself into a box to think that 5,000 feet's the right answer, 10,000 feet's the right answer. I really think that in all cases, you should do an engineering model. You should really look at what is the right design for maximizing recovery from the wells, and what does your acreage position allow? And what are the risk of drilling the 3 miles versus 1 mile or 10,000 feet?

我認為重要的是不要把自己置於一個框框裡，認為 5,000 英尺就是正確答案，10,000 英尺就是正確答案。我真的認為在所有情況下，你都應該做一個工程模型。您應該真正考慮什麼是最大限度提高油井採收率的正確設計，以及您的面積位置允許什麼？與 1 英里或 10,000 英尺相比，鑽探 3 英里的風險是什麼？

So I think that there are cases where there may be situations and scenarios where longer lateral than 10,000. In fact, we drilled 15,000 ourselves. We did at least 1 or 2 of those. And we've drilled more than 10,000. In other cases, they didn't go all the way to the 15,000, but I think it really depends on the reservoir and all the things that you have to take into consideration against your acreage position, your full field development plan, how you intend to complete it, how you intend to -- what kind of artificial lift you intend to use.

所以我認為，在某些情況下，可能存在橫向長度超過 10,000 的情況和場景。事實上，我們自己鑽了 15,000 個。我們至少做了其中的一兩個。我們已經鑽了超過 10,000 個。在其他情況下，他們並沒有一直達到 15,000，但我認為這實際上取決於水庫以及您必鬚根據您的面積位置、您的完整油田開發計劃以及您的意圖考慮的所有因素為了完成它，你打算如何——你打算使用什麼樣的人工舉昇機。

So there are a lot of variables involved. But I wouldn't -- I certainly wouldn't say that we would never consider doing our 15,000-foot wells again. It's always under evaluation, not only in the Permian, but anywhere we drill horizontal wells. So we wouldn't rule it out.

所以涉及到很多變數。但我不會——我當然不會說我們永遠不會考慮再進行 15,000 英尺深的井。它始終處於評估之中，不僅在二疊紀，而且在我們鑽水平井的任何地方。所以我們不排除這種可能性。

And with respect to CO2, we expect to use in both the conventional and the unconventional. And in the conventional alone, there's 2 billion barrels of additional resources that could be developed with what we expect to be much lower or no cost CO2 in the future. And the enhanced oil recovery of the shale as well. So we're excited about that.

至於二氧化碳，我們希望在常規和非常規方面都得到使用。僅就傳統能源而言，就有 20 億桶額外資源可以通過我們預計未來成本低得多或無成本的二氧化碳來開發。以及提高頁岩油採收率。所以我們對此感到興奮。

In the interest of time, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Vicki Hollub for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, ma'am.

由於時間關係，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Vicki Hollub 進行閉幕致辭。請繼續，女士。

I just want to thank you all for your participation and your questions today. Thank you,and have a great day.

我只想感謝大家今天的參與和提問。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。