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Operator
Operator
Greetings, welcome to Oshkosh Corporation 2026 first quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Patrick Davidson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you.
各位好,歡迎參加 Oshkosh Corporation 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。現在很榮幸為各位介紹本次會議主持人:Oshkosh Corporation 投資人關係資深副總裁 Patrick Davidson。謝謝。
Patrick Davidson - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Patrick Davidson - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our first quarter 2026 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Todayâs call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website.
早安,感謝各位加入。今天稍早,我們已發布 2026 年第一季業績。新聞稿副本可於我們的網站 oshkoshcorp.com 取得。今天的電話會議將以網路直播進行,並搭配投影片簡報;簡報中包含我們在本次會議中將使用之 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表,亦可於我們網站取得。
The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.
音訊重播與投影片簡報將於我們網站提供約 12 個月。請各位現在翻到簡報的第 2 頁。接下來我們的發言(包含對各位提問的回答)包含我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義之「前瞻性陳述」的內容。
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and other factors that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and factors include, among others, factors that we listed in our release this morning and matters that we have described in our most recent Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC, as well as matters noted at our Investor Day in June 2025.
這些前瞻性陳述受風險及其他因素影響,可能導致實際結果與該等前瞻性陳述所明示或暗示者有重大差異。這些風險與因素包括但不限於:我們今早新聞稿中所列因素、我們最近一期 Form 10-K 及其他向 SEC 提交之文件中所描述事項,以及我們於 2025 年 6 月投資人日所提及之事項。
We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. Our presenters today are John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matthew Field, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務;即使更新,也可能要到下一次季度財報電話會議才會更新,或根本不會更新。今天的簡報人員為:總裁暨執行長 John Pfeifer,以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Matthew Field。
Please turn to slide 3, and Iâll turn it over to you, John.
請翻到第 3 頁,接下來交給你,John。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Pat. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We continue to make progress on our long-term goals in each of our businesses. Customer engagement around our new products and technologies has been strong, as demonstrated at CES and the many trade shows where we have participated in 2026.
謝謝你,Pat。各位早安,感謝今天加入我們。我們在各項業務上持續朝長期目標取得進展。客戶對我們新產品與新技術的互動與參與度一直很高,這在 CES 以及我們於 2026 年參與的多場產業展會中都可見一斑。
The actions we are taking across the company this year are foundational to delivering our targets for 2028, and we remain confident in the future we are shaping for those who do the toughest work in our communities.
我們今年在全公司推動的各項行動,是達成 2028 年目標的基礎;對於我們正在為社區中從事最艱鉅工作的人們所塑造的未來,我們仍充滿信心。
First quarter earnings per share were modestly below the expectations we outlined on our last call, where we indicated EPS would be approximately half of the prior yearâs amount. For the quarter, we delivered consolidated sales of approximately $2.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.85.
第一季每股盈餘略低於我們在上次電話會議所提出的預期;當時我們表示 EPS 約為前一年水準的一半。本季我們的合併營收約為 23 億美元,調整後每股盈餘為 0.85 美元。
Performance in the quarter compared with our expectations was impacted by fewer fire truck shipments in our vocational segment, where a number of planned customer pickups were not completed, even though we are still making progress on increasing production.
本季表現相較我們的預期受到影響,主要是因為我們職業用車(Vocational)事業部的消防車出貨量較少;若干原訂的客戶提車未能完成,儘管我們仍在提升產能方面持續取得進展。
Our outlook for the company has not changed, and we are maintaining our full-year consolidated guidance. Demand across our segments remains solid, and we have good visibility for the remainder of the year. We are focused on execution and continue to expect improved performance as the year progresses, and we remain confident that we are taking the right steps to drive positive business performance, not just this year, but for the long term.
我們對公司的展望沒有改變,並維持全年合併財測指引不變。各事業部需求仍然穩健,且我們對今年剩餘期間具備良好能見度。我們專注於執行力,並持續預期隨著年度推進,表現將有所改善;我們也仍有信心,我們正在採取正確步驟以推動正向的營運表現,不僅是今年,更是長期。
Please turn to slide 5, and we will review some highlights since our last call. Demand in our access segment is improving, supported by mega projects, including data center-related construction. Orders in the quarter exceeded $1.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6. Customer engagement remains high. We are entering the summer construction season with a backlog of $1.8 billion at the end of the quarter.
請翻到第 5 頁,我們將回顧自上次電話會議以來的一些重點。我們高空作業平台(Access)事業部的需求正在改善,並受到大型專案(包含資料中心相關建設)的支撐。本季訂單超過 15 億美元,使得接單出貨比(book-to-bill)達到 1.6。客戶參與度仍維持高檔。在本季末,我們以 18 億美元的在手訂單(backlog)迎接夏季施工旺季。
At the same time, demand continues to be uneven across end markets. While mega projects remain a source of strength, broader non-residential construction activity continues to be impacted by macroeconomic factors.
同時,各終端市場的需求仍呈現不均。雖然大型專案仍是強勁動能來源,但更廣泛的非住宅建築活動仍持續受到總體經濟因素影響。
Against this backdrop, our focus on innovation and productivity continues to resonate with customers. At the ConExpo show in March, our JLG team showcased all-new boom lifts and our new 26-foot micro-sized scissor lift, all designed to improve productivity, serviceability, and versatility. Our new boom lifts directly address key customer needs by reducing machine weight and increasing basket capacity.
在此背景下,我們對創新與生產力的聚焦持續引起客戶共鳴。在 3 月的 ConExpo 展會上,我們的 JLG 團隊展示了全新曲臂式高空作業車,以及全新的 26 英尺微型剪叉式高空作業平台,皆以提升生產力、可維修性與多用途性為設計目標。我們的新款曲臂式高空作業車透過降低機器重量並提高工作籃載重能力,直接回應客戶的關鍵需求。
Our micro-sized scissor lifts, which are seeing strong adoption in data center applications, provide a safe and more efficient way to access confined spaces. We also highlighted advancements incorporating autonomy, including Canvas robotics for drywall finishing and our robotic welding end effector, both of which generated strong customer interest as companies look for solutions to address labor constraints and improve job site efficiency.
我們的微型剪叉式高空作業平台在資料中心應用中採用度強勁,能以更安全且更有效率的方式進入狹小空間。我們也強調了導入自主化的進展,包括用於石膏板收邊的 Canvas 機器人,以及我們的機器人焊接末端執行器;隨著企業尋求解決方案以因應勞動力限制並提升工地效率,這兩項技術都引發客戶高度興趣。
While we are encouraged by strong order activity and backlog, we continue to operate in a dynamic cost environment. We are actively managing the impact of tariffs through supply chain and manufacturing actions. We expect to maintain a competitive cost position as the industry leader. Overall, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for the Access segment and our ability to execute through the cycle as we manage our costs and deliver attractive margins over time.
儘管我們對強勁的接單活動與在手訂單感到鼓舞,我們仍在動態的成本環境中營運。我們正透過供應鏈與製造端的措施,積極管理關稅帶來的影響。作為產業領導者,我們預期將維持具競爭力的成本地位。整體而言,我們仍對 Access 事業部的長期展望及我們在景氣循環中執行的能力充滿信心;在控管成本的同時,亦能隨時間推進交付具吸引力的利潤率。
Turning to slide 6. Demand across our Vocational Segment remains healthy, with a strong backlog of $6.6 billion. In the quarter, we increased fire truck production year-over-year, although shipments were below our expectations. This was driven by a number of factors, including weather and travel-related disruptions.
接著看第 6 頁。我們職業用車(Vocational)事業部的需求仍然健康,在手訂單強勁,達 66 億美元。本季我們的消防車產量較去年同期增加,但出貨量低於我們的預期。這是由多項因素所致,包括天候與旅運相關的干擾。
We are focused on modernizing and improving production flow and removing bottlenecks to improve lead times, and we are making progress. We expect further improvements in the quarters ahead, supported by increased process efficiency and targeted capital investments.
我們正專注於產線現代化、改善生產流程並排除瓶頸以縮短交期,且已取得進展。在流程效率提升與精準的資本投資支持下,我們預期未來幾季將進一步改善。
On the innovation front, we continue to see strong customer engagement. At the FDIC show in Indianapolis, Pierce showcased the capabilities and quality of our fire apparatus, along with ClearSky connected vehicle technology, which enhances fleet visibility, uptime, and coordination for fire departments in the field.
在創新方面,我們持續看到客戶高度參與。在印第安納波利斯的 FDIC 展會上,Pierce 展示了我們消防車輛的能力與品質,以及 ClearSky 車聯網技術;該技術可提升消防單位在現場的車隊可視性、稼動率(uptime)與協同作業能力。
At McNeilus, we launched our AI-enabled material contamination detection technology as part of our McNeilus IQ platform. This solution leverages artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to identify contaminants in real time during collection, helping customers improve efficiency and sustainability. We expect to continue expanding our McNeilus IQ offering with additional technologies over time.
在 McNeilus,我們在 McNeilus IQ 平台中推出了具 AI 功能的物料污染偵測技術。此解決方案運用人工智慧與進階分析,在收運過程中即時辨識污染物,協助客戶提升效率與永續性。我們預期將隨時間推進,持續以更多技術擴充 McNeilus IQ 的產品組合。
Oshkosh AeroTech continues to perform well, supported by strong demand from airports investing in expansion and modernization. Order intake in the quarter was solid, particularly for air cargo loaders and jetway passenger boarding bridges, with key wins in Reno, Orlando and Nashville.
Oshkosh AeroTech 持續表現良好,受惠於機場在擴建與現代化投資上的強勁需求。本季接單表現穩健,尤其是空運貨物裝載機與登機空橋(jetway)旅客登機橋,並在雷諾、奧蘭多與納許維爾取得重要訂單。
Our jetway backlog now extends beyond 12 months. We are investing in capacity to improve delivery times. Summing it up, we have strong visibility across the segment. We expect to convert backlog into revenue as production throughput improves and we reduce lead times.
我們的登機空橋在手訂單目前已延伸至 12 個月以上。我們正投資擴充產能以改善交付時間。總結而言,我們對該事業部具備高度能見度。隨著產能吞吐量提升並縮短交期,我們預期將把在手訂單轉化為營收。
Please turn to slide 7. In our Transport segment, we continue to make notable progress executing on our key programs and advancing toward our long-term objectives. For NGDV, production is on track. The fleet has now surpassed 20 million miles and is operating in 48 states. Importantly, feedback from the USPS and their drivers continues to be very positive, reinforcing the productivity and reliability benefits of the platform as we ramp deliveries.
請翻到第 7 頁。在我們的運輸(Transport)事業部,我們持續在關鍵專案的執行上取得顯著進展,並朝長期目標邁進。就 NGDV 而言,生產進度符合規劃。車隊累計行駛里程已超過 2,000 萬英里,並在 48 個州運行。重要的是,USPS 及其駕駛對我們的回饋持續非常正面,進一步強化了在我們加速交付之際,該平台在生產力與可靠性方面的優勢。
As we look ahead, NGDV production will continue to build through the year, with a greater contribution expected in the second half. On the defense side, we are also progressing on our FMTV program. We are launching the production of low-velocity air drop units, with production expected to grow in the second half of the year.
展望未來,NGDV 產量將在全年持續提升,預期下半年貢獻將更大。在國防方面,我們的 FMTV 計畫也在持續推進。我們正啟動低速空投單元的生產,預期產量將於下半年成長。
These units represent initial deliveries under the FMTV contract extension signed in June of 2025. Closing out my segment comments, we are executing our plans for transport and expect performance to improve in the second half of the year.
這些單元代表我們於 2025 年 6 月簽署之 FMTV 合約展延下的首批交付。在結束我這部分的說明前,我們正按計畫推進運輸業務,並預期下半年表現將改善。
With that, Iâll hand it over to Matt to walk through our detailed financial results.
接下來,我把時間交給 Matt,請他帶大家檢視我們更詳細的財務結果。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, John. Please turn to slide eight. Consolidated sales for the first quarter of $2.3 billion were flat compared to the same quarter last year, as pricing, favorable currency, and the impact of changes in cumulative catch-up adjustments in the transport segment offset lower sales volume.
謝謝,John。請翻到第八頁投影片。第一季合併銷售額為 23 億美元,與去年同期持平,原因是定價、有利的匯率,以及運輸事業部累計追溯調整(cumulative catch-up adjustments)變動的影響,抵銷了較低的銷售量。
Adjusted operating income was $96 million, down from $192 million from the prior year, primarily due to unfavorable mix, which includes across segments, products, and for Access, channel mix with higher NRC sales compared with last year, higher manufacturing overhead costs, which in part reflects our investments for future production and lower sales volume.
調整後營業利益為 9,600 萬美元,較去年同期的 1.92 億美元下降,主要因產品組合不利(涵蓋各事業部與產品),以及 Access 方面通路組合變化(相較去年 NRC 銷售占比更高)、製造間接費用上升(部分反映我們為未來產能所做的投資)與銷售量下降。
In the quarter, we recorded a benefit for IEPA refunds of about $13 million. Our estimate for the full year impact of Cape One is about $23 million. This reflects our direct payments and excludes payments made by suppliers, which would be subject to future discussions.
本季我們認列 IEPA 退稅利益約 1,300 萬美元。我們估計 Cape One 對全年影響約 2,300 萬美元。此金額反映我們的直接支付,並不包含供應商所支付的款項;該部分將視未來討論而定。
Adjusted earnings per share was $0.85 in the first quarter. Free cash flow for the quarter was negative $189 million, an improvement compared to negative $435 million last year. The improved result is despite lower earnings and reflected more disciplined working capital management as we built for the summer season as well as higher customer advances. Our expectation for cash conversion remains strong for the year.
第一季調整後每股盈餘為 0.85 美元。本季自由現金流為負 1.89 億美元,較去年負 4.35 億美元有所改善。此改善是在獲利較低的情況下達成,反映我們在為夏季旺季備貨的同時,採取更嚴謹的營運資金管理,以及客戶預收款增加。我們對全年現金轉換率的預期仍然強勁。
During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 300,000 shares of our stock for $47 million. In March, we also refinanced our revolving credit facility. The five year agreement has similar terms to the previous facility with a capacity of $1.6 billion at a slightly lower interest rate.
本季我們以 4,700 萬美元回購約 30 萬股公司股票。3 月我們也完成循環信用額度(revolving credit facility)的再融資。這份五年期協議條款與先前額度相近,額度為 16 億美元,利率略低。
Turning to our segment results on slide 9, Access first quarter sales of $943 million were roughly flat with the prior year. Access sales were better than we expected, particularly given the strong sales volume Access delivered in the fourth quarter of 2025 in response to announced 2026 pricing.
接著看第 9 頁投影片的分部表現,先看 Access:第一季銷售額為 9.43 億美元,與去年同期大致持平。Access 的銷售表現優於我們預期,尤其考量到 Access 在 2025 年第四季因應已公告的 2026 年定價而交出強勁的銷售量。
Compared to the first quarter of 2025, lower sales volume was partially offset by favorable currency. As John mentioned, demand has remained robust. We delivered a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6 during the quarter compared to 1.0 during the first quarter last year. Adjusted operating income margin of 4.1% was about what we expected for the quarter.
與 2025 年第一季相比,較低的銷售量部分被有利匯率所抵銷。如 John 所提,需求仍然強勁。本季我們的接單出貨比(book-to-bill)為 1.6,去年第一季為 1.0。本季調整後營業利益率為 4.1%,大致符合我們預期。
The decrease in adjusted operating income relative to last year reflected mix, price cost dynamics, and the impact of lower sales volume. You will recall that Access is our segment most significantly impacted by tariffs.
相較去年,調整後營業利益下降反映產品組合、價格與成本動態,以及銷售量較低的影響。各位會記得,Access 是我們受關稅影響最顯著的事業部。
Vocational sales of $825 million were down from last year on lower shipment volume, partially offset by improved pricing. Sales volume reflected lower sales of refuse vehicles as expected and fewer deliveries of municipal fire trucks despite modest growth in our production compared with the same period of last year.
專用車(Vocational)銷售額為 8.25 億美元,因出貨量較低而較去年下滑,但部分被較佳的定價所抵銷。銷售量反映如預期的垃圾車銷售較少,以及市政消防車交付量較少,儘管我們的產量相較去年同期略有成長。
As John mentioned earlier, weather and travel challenges impacted customer pickups as they were not able to take deliveries of fire trucks late in the quarter. Lower sales volume, higher manufacturing overhead costs, partly reflecting our investments in Pierce facilities and adverse sales mix were partially offset by favorable price cost dynamics, resulting in an adjusted operating income of $94 million and a margin of 11.4% for the quarter.
如 John 先前提到,天候與交通挑戰影響客戶提車,導致他們在季末無法接收消防車交付。較低的銷售量、較高的製造間接費用(部分反映我們對 Pierce 廠區的投資)以及不利的銷售組合,部分被有利的價格與成本動態所抵銷,使本季調整後營業利益為 9,400 萬美元、營業利益率為 11.4%。
As John mentioned, we are focused on continued improvement in throughput for fire trucks and jet bridges in order to increase the pace of deliveries. Transport segment sales increased $50 million to $513 million in the quarter due to higher sales volume and the impact of cumulative catch-up adjustments.
如 John 所述,我們聚焦持續提升消防車與空橋(jet bridges)的產出效率,以加快交付節奏。本季運輸(Transport)事業部銷售額增加 5,000 萬美元至 5.13 億美元,主要因銷售量增加以及累計追溯調整的影響。
Delivery vehicle revenue grew by $166 million to $217 million and represented 42% of transport segment sales during the quarter. Delivery revenue grew more than 30% sequentially compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
配送車(delivery vehicle)營收增加 1.66 億美元至 2.17 億美元,占本季運輸事業部銷售額的 42%。與 2025 年第四季相比,配送營收季增超過 30%。
As expected, defense revenue was lower compared with last year due to lower tactical wheeled vehicle and aftermarket sales volumes. As a reminder, in the first quarter of 2025, we were still building JLTV units, with the last units built in May 2025.
如預期,國防營收較去年下降,原因是戰術輪式車輛與售後市場銷售量較低。提醒各位,在 2025 年第一季我們仍在生產 JLTV 單元,最後一批於 2025 年 5 月完成。
Transport segment operating income was $4 million, up $3.6 million compared with last year, reflecting lower adverse cumulative catch-up adjustments and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing overhead costs and adverse mix. We expect transport operating margin to grow in the back half of the year as we transition out of past fixed price contracts, continue to ramp up NGDV production, and expect to receive additional NGDV orders.
運輸事業部營業利益為 400 萬美元,較去年增加 360 萬美元,反映不利的累計追溯調整減少以及銷售量增加,但部分被較高的製造間接費用與不利的產品組合所抵銷。我們預期下半年運輸事業部營業利益率將提升,因我們將逐步退出過去的固定價格合約、持續拉升 NGDV 產量,並預期取得額外的 NGDV 訂單。
Turning to our expectations for 2026 on slide 10, we continue to expect our full-year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $11.50. We are facing conditions that are more challenging and dynamic than we anticipated three months ago, and we expect roughly 30% of our earnings in the first half of the year.
接著看第 10 頁投影片對 2026 年的展望,我們仍預期全年調整後每股盈餘落在 11.50 美元左右。
The back half will be stronger, reflecting improved price cost and Access, higher fire truck production reflecting our investments, building on the FMTV contract, and for the NGDV, both higher production and our expectation for an additional order. We still expect free cash flow of $550 million to $650 million unchanged from our prior guidance.
下半年將更強勁,反映價格與成本改善以及 Access 的表現、因我們投資帶動的消防車產量提升、FMTV 合約的持續推進,以及 NGDV 的更高產量與我們對額外訂單的預期。我們對自由現金流的預期仍為 5.5 億至 6.5 億美元,與先前指引一致。
At this time, we are not updating or reaffirming our expectations by segment as we continue to manage our business in this evolving economic landscape. In Access, we are seeing promising order activity, as you can see in the strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.6, which may result in a modestly greater contribution from the segment.
目前我們不更新或重申各分部的預期,因我們仍在這個持續演變的經濟環境中管理業務。在 Access 方面,我們看到令人鼓舞的接單動能,如 1.6 的強勁接單出貨比所示,這可能使該分部貢獻略為提高。
In vocational, while our growth and margins are still expected to be robust, particularly for municipal fire apparatus, our first quarter delivery shortfalls and facility construction timing are likely to modestly reduce the contribution from that segment this year.
在專用車方面,雖然我們仍預期成長與利潤率將維持強勁,尤其是市政消防裝備,但第一季交付不足以及廠房建設時程,可能使該分部今年的貢獻小幅下降。
Transport remains on plan. Our outlook for tariff impact has remained largely unchanged as IEPA tariff recoveries are broadly expected to offset the additional costs of the Section 232 expansion. As John mentioned at the outset, all the ingredients to deliver on our 2028 targets are in place or underway. With new and refreshed products, advanced technologies, and increased production to improve lead times on extended backlogs, the plan to achieve 2028 targets is clear.
運輸事業部仍按計畫推進。我們對關稅影響的展望大致不變,因 IEPA 的關稅回收預期將大致抵銷第 232 條擴大適用所帶來的額外成本。如 John 在開場提到,達成 2028 年目標所需的所有要素都已就位或正在推進中。透過新產品與產品更新、先進技術,以及提升產量以改善延長的積壓訂單交期,達成 2028 年目標的計畫已相當明確。
With that, Iâll turn it back over to John for some closing comments.
接下來,我把時間交回給 John,請他做一些結語。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Matt. Summing it up, we expect continued improvement throughout the year as we execute on our plan. We are operating in a dynamic environment, including changes in tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, but we are actively managing those factors through pricing, cost actions, and supply chain actions.
謝謝,Matt。總結來說,我們預期在執行計畫的過程中,全年將持續改善。我們所處環境變動快速,包括關稅變化與地緣政治不確定性,但我們正透過定價、成本措施與供應鏈行動積極管理這些因素。
We are maintaining our full year adjusted earnings expectations in the range of $11.50 per share, and we remain confident in our progress towards delivering on our 2028 targets. Our confidence is grounded in three areas: strong backlog and demand, continued production improvements at vocational, and continued progress with our NGDV ramp and transport.
我們維持全年調整後獲利預期在每股 11.50 美元左右,並對朝 2028 年目標邁進的進展仍具信心。我們的信心建立在三個面向:強勁的在手訂單與需求、專用車持續的產能與生產改善,以及 NGDV 擴產與運輸業務的持續進展。
Iâll turn it back to you, Pat, for the Q&A.
我把時間交還給你,Pat,進行問答環節。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, John. Iâd like to remind everybody, please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up. Please stay disciplined on your follow-up question. After the follow-up, we ask that you rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please begin the Q&A session.
謝謝,John。我想提醒各位,請將問題限制為一題加上一個追問。請在追問時保持紀律。追問結束後,如仍有其他問題,請重新排隊。接線員,請開始問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
David Raso, Evercore ISI.
David Raso,Evercore ISI。
David Raso - Equity Analyst
David Raso - Equity Analyst
Hi. Thank you. Hopefully, you donât hear the static when Iâm speaking that Iâm hearing back. Please let me know.
嗨。謝謝。希望你們不會像我回聽時一樣聽到我說話時的雜音。如果有的話請告訴我。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, you sound good, David. You sound fine.
沒有,你聽起來很好,David。聲音很清楚。
David Raso - Equity Analyst
David Raso - Equity Analyst
Thatâs good to hear. Just curious, the second quarter implied at about $2.60. I know you mentioned you donât want to give business segment guide updates, can you at least give us a sense of where were you thinking EPS could be for 2Q?
那就好。我只是好奇,第二季隱含大約是 2.60 美元。我知道你提到不想提供各業務部門指引更新,但你至少能否讓我們了解一下,你們對第二季 EPS 可能落在哪裡的想法?
Iâm just curious how much of the first half got pushed into the second half and given some of the commentary around why vocational was a bit light, just curious why the catch-up wouldnât be a little bit quicker. Maybe the first part, what came out of 2Q, and if it was sort of weather related, why canât we catch up for that a little bit faster? Thank you.
我也好奇,上半年有多少被推遲到下半年;再加上你們對於為何職業車(vocational)稍微偏弱的一些評論,我想知道為什麼補回不會更快一些。也就是說,第一部分,第二季有哪些因素被拉出來(或影響到第二季),如果是天氣相關,為什麼我們不能更快把它補回來?謝謝。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Hey, David. Itâs Matt. The elements in Q2 largely havenât changed year-over-year. We were always expecting Access to be a little weaker. In terms of Vocational, we said two things. One, obviously, we did have the shipments that would slip into Q2, weâre also seeing some delays in our facilities. And so we implement our production changes, the timing of some of that capacity coming on stream is pushing later into the year. That affects a little bit of the seasonality in Q2 as well.
嗨,David。我是 Matt。第二季的要素基本上與去年同期相比沒有太大變化。我們一直預期 Access 會稍微弱一些。至於 Vocational,我們提了兩點。第一,顯然有一些出貨會延後到第二季;同時我們也看到自家廠區有一些延誤。因此在我們推動生產變更時,部分產能上線的時點被推遲到今年稍晚。這也會對第二季的季節性造成一些影響。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
David, this is John. I can give you a little bit more color. You mentioned that we didnât provide segment-level guide. Just some color on what weâre seeing. We see right now weâre seeing a little bit better expectation on access equipment as we go through the year. You saw the big $1.5 billion of orders. So weâre seeing favorability there.
David,我是 John。我可以再補充一些背景。你提到我們沒有提供分部層級的指引。就我們目前看到的情況補充一下。我們現在看到,隨著今年推進,對高空作業設備(access equipment)的預期稍微更好一些。你也看到那筆 15 億美元的大額訂單。所以我們在那邊看到一些正面因素。
Weâre taking a more measured approach at the same time in our vocational business. Primarily, weâre going to see really big gains in terms of fire trucks for the year, but weâre taking a little bit more measured approach there versus what we originally guided to. It all still leads us to the $11.50 number. David?
同時,我們在職業車業務上採取更審慎的做法。主要是今年在消防車方面會有非常大的增長,但相較於我們原先給出的指引,我們在那邊採取稍微更保守一些的做法。整體仍然會導向 11.50 美元這個數字。David?
David Raso - Equity Analyst
David Raso - Equity Analyst
Iâm sorry. Iâm still here. Just the follow-up on that about Transport Defense, talking about the rest of the year for the other segments. Your postal revenue was generally where I was expecting, and it sounds like, are we at that sort of full run rate, the quarterly run rate as the year goes on, and do we need that second tranche of orders to the cumulative accounting catch-up? Do we need that set of orders to still hit your guide for Transport Defense margin? Just curious about that catch-up in the second order thatâs required. Thank you.
不好意思。我還在線上。就 Transport Defense 的追問,談到今年其餘時間其他分部的情況。你們的郵政收入大致符合我的預期;聽起來我們是否已經達到那種完整的運行水準,也就是接下來各季的季度運行率?另外,我們是否需要第二批訂單,才能在累計會計(cumulative accounting)上做追溯調整(catch-up)?我們是否仍需要那批訂單,才能達成你們對 Transport Defense 利潤率的指引?只是想了解第二筆訂單所需的補回(catch-up)情況。謝謝。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Sure. So the calendarization of revenue and delivery is expected to grow across the quarters. So we would expect higher revenue as we progress through the year, as we continue to ramp up production. In line with our expectations and the USPS delivery schedules. We are assuming there is an order in the back half of the year as well, and so thatâs implicit in our guidance.
當然。收入與交付的時程分配預期會逐季成長。因此,隨著我們持續提升產能並拉升產量,我們預期今年進行到後面各季收入會更高。這與我們的預期以及 USPS 的交付排程一致。我們也假設下半年還會有一筆訂單,因此這已隱含在我們的指引之中。
David Raso - Equity Analyst
David Raso - Equity Analyst
Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
非常感謝。我很感激。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, David.
謝謝,David。
Operator
Operator
Tami Zakaria, J.P. Morgan.
Tami Zakaria,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the vocational segment. I appreciate the winter weather and timing-related comments. Just stepping back, do you expect any pre-buy driven de-demand, or is that embedded in your guide for the back half?
嗨。早安。非常感謝讓我提問。我想問職業車分部。我理解冬季天氣與時點相關的評論。退一步來看,你們是否預期會有任何由預先採購(pre-buy)驅動的需求下滑(de-demand),還是這已經反映在你們對下半年的指引中?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
So weâre not expecting significant levels of pre-buy. That might happen in the back half, but weâre certainly not counting on it. Just for those on the phone listening in, this is really about 27 model year emission standards and chassis. And so weâre not counting on that in our guidance. Certainly, if it happens, we stand ready with capacity.
我們不預期會有顯著程度的預先採購。下半年可能會發生,但我們當然不會把它當作前提。給電話上收聽的各位補充一下,這主要是關於 2027 年式(27 model year)的排放標準與底盤。因此我們的指引並未把這點納入。當然,如果真的發生,我們也已準備好相應產能。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Our view, Tami, is if that happens, itâll be upside to what weâre currently expecting.
對。Tami,我們的看法是,如果真的發生,那會是相對於我們目前預期的上行因素。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Got it. If I could ask a follow-up on that. How much volume uptick are you planning in the vocational segment year-over-year without any pre-buy normalized volume uptick for the year?
了解。我可以就此追問一下嗎?在不考慮任何預先採購的情況下,你們今年職業車分部相較去年,規劃的出貨量增幅大概是多少?也就是以正常化的量來看,今年的年增幅是多少?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Itâs really going to vary by segment, Tami. So as we talked about before, we would see refuse vehicles down year-over-year without a pre-buy, which is what we talked about on the last call. Fire truck production, we are adding production throughput and efficiencies to modernize that line.
這會因子分部而有很大差異,Tami。如同我們先前提到的,在沒有預先採購的情況下,垃圾車(refuse vehicles)會較去年下滑,這也是我們在上次電話會議談到的。至於消防車產線,我們正在提升產出節拍與效率,以使該產線現代化。
Second half of last year, we were up roughly 10% year-over-year on our production. We would expect this year to be up 10% as well, roughly, on production. Continuing to add fire truck capacity there. As John mentioned on the call, weâre adding capacity in Aerotech.
去年下半年,我們的產量約年增 10%。我們預期今年產量也會大致年增 10%。並持續在那邊增加消防車產能。如同 John 在電話會議上提到的,我們也在 Aerotech 增加產能。
That comes on stream more early 2027 than late 2026, but have plenty of capacity to support our sales projections there. So weâre still, weâll see growth in some segments, but on a year-over-year basis, we would expect refuse to be down, setting aside any pre-buy.
那項產能更可能在 2027 年初而非 2026 年底上線,但我們有充足產能來支撐我們在那邊的銷售預測。所以我們仍會在某些子分部看到成長,但以年對年來看,撇除任何預先採購因素,我們預期垃圾車會下滑。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Understood. Thank you.
了解。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mig Dobre, Baird.
Mig Dobre,Baird。
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Iâm wondering if you can give us a little more color on just this evolving tariff picture. If I understand correctly, you did record a $13 million benefit in Q1. But then -- now youâre dealing with updated Section 232. You know, how does this flow through the P&L through the year? You know, do you have more of a headwind now? You obviously recognize the benefits, presumably that gets unwound to some extent.
是的。謝謝。各位早安。我想請你們就這個不斷演變的關稅情勢再多提供一些說明。如果我理解正確,你們在第一季認列了 1,300 萬美元的利益。但現在——你們正在面對更新後的《232 條款》(Section 232)。那麼這在今年會如何流經損益表(P&L)?你們現在是否會面臨更大的逆風?你們顯然已認列了利益,我猜這在某種程度上會被回沖(unwound)。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Mig. There are multiple moving pieces in that question, obviously. So the IEPA -- refund, we filed that. We put that, we put the accrual in Q1. It was, what, $13.5. Itâs $23 for the full year. Thatâs a portion of the IEPA, so obviously our suppliers paid IEPA as well, so they should be getting refunds. As I mentioned on the call, weâll be having discussions with them on recovering those refund payments.
嗨,Mig。顯然,這個問題牽涉到多個變動因素。所以 IEPA——退稅,我們已經申報了。我們把它、我們把應計金額放在第一季。那是,多少來著,13.5。全年合計是 23。那只是 IEPA 的一部分,所以顯然我們的供應商也支付了 IEPA,因此他們也應該會拿到退稅。如同我在電話會議上提到的,我們將與他們討論如何收回那些退稅款項。
And then youâve got, as you say, 232 expansion. Responding to that comes in two pieces. One, we do see IEPA fully largely offsetting the negative impacts from that. Two, the team in Access, which is primarily affected, is working diligently to mitigate that as well.
然後如你所說,還有 232 擴大。對此的因應分成兩個部分。第一,我們確實看到 IEPA 在很大程度上能完全抵銷其負面影響。第二,Access 團隊(主要受影響的單位)也正努力不懈地加以緩解。
Some of the best teams in terms of moving around production, we talked about that pretty much half of last year. And so theyâre working through mitigation plans there as well. We think itâs a negligible to zero impact on the year, between IEPA and 232.
就調整生產配置而言,他們是最強的團隊之一;我們去年下半年幾乎一直在談這件事。因此他們也在推進相關的緩解計畫。我們認為在 IEPA 與 232 之間,對全年影響可忽略不計,甚至接近於零。
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thereâs more IEPA to come, Mig, just to make that point. Thereâs more favorability to come in the future.
Mig,我想強調的是,後續還會有更多 IEPA。未來還會有更多正面貢獻。
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Okay. I guess my follow-up is on price cost. Iâm sort of curious as to how you think this dynamic evolves through the year because obviously your year is guided as very back end loaded. It does appear that cost inflation is actually ramping. So presumably youâre going to have more cost inflation to deal with in the back half than you do currently experienced in your P&L. So what are some of the things that youâre doing to address that to get us anywhere close to kind of the way you structured the guidance?
好的。我想我的追問是關於價格與成本。我有點好奇你們如何看待這個動態在今年的演變,因為顯然你們的全年指引是非常偏向下半年貢獻。看起來成本通膨其實正在加速。所以推測你們在下半年要面對的成本通膨會比目前在損益表中反映的更高。那麼你們正在做哪些事情來因應,讓我們能接近你們當初建構指引的方式?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So Iâll take that, Mig. Itâs John. Our price cost gets better and better as we go through the year. You are correct. Weâre dealing with a very dynamic environment, both with tariffs and geopolitical conflict, which creates inflation. And weâve got incredible work going on the cost side, but we also have some things that go on the price side.
是的。Mig,我來回答。我是 John。我們的價格/成本(price-cost)會隨著年度推進而越來越好。你說得沒錯。我們正面對非常動態的環境,包括關稅與地緣政治衝突,這些都會造成通膨。我們在成本端做了非常出色的工作,但在價格端也有一些措施。
And as the year goes by, we get more and more benefit on both of those. So far in the year, weâve seen very little benefit on the price side and we get more price Q2 onward, weâll get more cost reduction to minimize how much price we have to get from our customers as we go through the year. It gets better and better as we go through the year, which is part of our confidence that the second half is going to be better than the first half.
而且隨著時間推進,我們在這兩方面都會獲得越來越多的效益。截至目前,我們在價格端看到的效益很少;從第二季開始我們會取得更多的價格效益,同時也會有更多的成本降低,以便在今年推進過程中,把需要向客戶取得的漲價幅度降到最低。它會隨著年度推進而越來越好,這也是我們有信心下半年會優於上半年的原因之一。
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Mircea (Mig) Dobre - Analyst
Alright. Thank you, John.
好的。謝謝你,John。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Mig.
謝謝,Mig。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.
Angel Castillo,摩根士丹利。
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to the vocational segment a little bit. I was hoping we could unpack the margins in a little bit more detail. I guess you noticed some of the shipments slowed down and a more measured outlook in light of that.
嗨,早安,謝謝讓我提問。我想再回到職業用車(vocational)部門談一下。我希望能更細緻地拆解一下毛利率/利潤率。我想你們注意到部分出貨放緩,因此在此背景下展望也更為審慎。
Could you talk a little bit about, I guess, any impact of manufacturing costs or mix on the business and just kind of your expectations? And related to that, I guess, you know, as we think about kind of anything you can provide in terms of bookends or qualitative thoughts. Just to kind of help us gauge, you know, what margins now are embedded in the guide versus the 17% you had previously guided to for the year.
你能否談談,我想,製造成本或產品組合(mix)對業務的任何影響,以及你們的預期?以及與此相關的,我想,當我們思考你們能提供的任何上下限(bookends)或定性看法。主要是幫助我們衡量,目前指引中隱含的利潤率,相較於你們先前對全年給出的 17% 指引,現在是什麼水準。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Angel. So obviously volume was a driver in vocational. I mentioned mix. Thatâs really around the mix of segments. As you think about a bridge, as you have a mix out of fire trucks because of the shipments, then youâre going to have some adverse mix effect.
好的。謝謝,Angel。很明顯,職業用車的量(volume)是一個驅動因素。我也提到產品組合(mix)。那主要是指各細分市場的組合。如果你用橋接(bridge)的方式來看,當消防車因出貨而在組合中占比下降時,就會帶來一些不利的組合效應。
And then we have invested in additional capacity and throughput in Pierce Manufacturing specifically. As we donât deliver those fire trucks, then we have kind of stranded cost, if you will, on the manufacturing side. Thatâs really how to think about vocational.
另外,我們已在 Pierce Manufacturing 特別投資增加產能與產出效率(throughput)。當我們沒有交付那些消防車時,製造端就會出現某種程度的閒置成本(stranded cost)。這就是理解職業用車業務的方式。
In terms of the full year guide, while weâre not providing specific guidance by segment, we still see this as a very strong business for the year. And the margins we would expect to be in the range of our long-term guidance in 2028, which is 16% to 18%. We originally guided [17%]. It most likely will fall below that with some of the changes to our capacity timing, but below the 17% to be clear, but within the 16% to 18%.
就全年指引而言,雖然我們不提供按部門拆分的具體指引,但我們仍認為這將是今年非常強勁的業務。我們預期利潤率會落在我們 2028 年長期指引的區間,也就是 16% 到 18%。我們原先指引為[17%]。由於產能時程的一些變動,它很可能會低於 17%——我說清楚,是低於 17%,但仍在 16% 到 18% 的區間內。
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Thatâs very helpful. Thank you. And then maybe a little bit of a bigger picture or maybe just more macro, lots going on in terms of, you know, geopolitics with Iran. Just how should we think about the Iran conflict impact on your business? Obviously, always sad to see, any fighting, but just was hoping you could talk about the bigger picture dynamic of impact of any energy prices might have on your business, how that kind of flows through or not. Also on the flip side, have you seen any step change in terms of orders for defense vehicles or any kind of incremental opportunities for sales there?
這非常有幫助。謝謝。接著可能是更大方向、或更偏宏觀的問題:目前地緣政治方面有很多事情在發生,例如伊朗。我們應該如何看待伊朗衝突對你們業務的影響?當然,看到任何戰事都令人難過,但我希望你能談談更大層面的影響動態:能源價格可能如何影響你們的業務,以及這會如何傳導(或不會)。另外反過來說,你們是否看到國防車輛訂單有任何階躍式變化,或任何額外的銷售機會?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, first of all, the conflict, what it does is it drives inflation. Thatâs how it impacts us. So when you see inflation, you see steel up 25%. You see aluminum up more than that. We all know whatâs going on with oil, of course. Itâs primarily an inflationary impact. By the way, these impacts are embedded in our guidance today. So theyâre all considered in our guidance. We know what weâre going to do about it. Weâve got world-class teams that are working on positioning our footprint to make sure we keep costs as low as we possibly can.
好的,首先,衝突帶來的影響是推升通膨。這就是它影響我們的方式。所以當你看到通膨時,你會看到鋼材上漲 25%。你會看到鋁價漲得更多。當然,我們都知道油價的情況。它主要是一種通膨性的影響。順帶一提,這些影響已經反映在我們目前的指引之中。所以它們都已納入我們的指引考量。我們知道要怎麼應對。我們有世界級團隊正在調整我們的製造/營運布局(footprint),以確保我們盡可能把成本維持在最低。
On the defense side, our defense business is going well. Weâre shipping more as we get to the back half of the year on new contracts, which is a big change in price, which is a part of the reason weâre more confident in the second half. Because of that, we work really closely with the Department of Defense. Weâre noted as a high quality, very reliable delivery type of a business with our defense operations. Thereâs not anything thatâs happened thatâs going to impact 2026 at this point, but weâre highly engaged with the Department of Defense to support their efforts.
在國防方面,我們的國防業務進展良好。隨著進入下半年,我們會在新合約下出貨更多,而新合約的價格有很大的變化,這也是我們對下半年更有信心的部分原因。基於此,我們與國防部密切合作。在國防營運方面,我們被視為高品質、交付非常可靠的業務。目前沒有任何事情會影響 2026 年,但我們仍高度投入,與國防部合作以支持他們的工作。
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Very helpful. Thank you.
非常有幫助。謝謝。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.
Jerry Revich,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone.
是的。嗨,各位早安。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Morning, Jerry.
早安,Jerry。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
John, Hi, John, Iâm wondering if I could ask about what youâre seeing in access on your telematics data in North America and in Europe. It sounds like utilization is tightening based on what weâre hearing from the rental channel. Is that consistent with what you see in the data in North America? Separately, would love to hear what youâre seeing on the data front in Europe.
John,嗨,John,我想請教你在北美與歐洲的車隊遠端資訊(telematics)數據中,對於高空作業平台(access)你看到的情況。從我們從租賃通路聽到的來看,設備使用率似乎正在收緊。這與你在北美數據中看到的情況一致嗎?另外,也很想聽聽你在歐洲數據面看到的狀況。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks for the question. As part of our -- when I said Iâll give you a little color on the segment-level details, part of the reason that we feel better and better about the access business as we go through the year, we do triangulate the data that we get off of our machines together with what our customers tell us is happening with utilization, which ultimately leads to where they need equipment and when they need equipment. But it triangulates really well.
是的。謝謝你的問題。如同我提到我會就各事業部層級的細節補充一些背景,我們之所以在一年當中越來越看好高空作業平台(access)業務,其中一部分原因是:我們會把從自家設備取得的數據,與客戶告訴我們的使用率情況交叉驗證,而使用率最終會導向他們何時需要設備、需要多少設備。而這些資訊彼此吻合度很高。
Youâve heard some of our publicly traded customers talk about it. Utilizationâs getting better. It wasnât like it was coming from a bad place, but itâs certainly getting a little bit better. And thatâs a positive sign for the access industry.
你也聽到一些我們的上市客戶談到這點。使用率正在改善。並不是從很差的基礎起來,但確實在變得更好一些。這對高空作業平台產業是正面訊號。
And in the used market in access equipment, itâs also a positive sign. The used marketâs healthy. And thereâs orders for new equipment thatâs coming in. By and large, that gives us a little bit more favorable outlook for access, Jerry.
而在高空作業設備的二手機市場方面,這同樣是正面訊號。二手機市場很健康。而且新設備的訂單也正在進來。整體而言,這讓我們對高空作業平台(access)的展望更為有利,Jerry。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Super. Thank you. Can I ask, on the USPS side, obviously, theyâre waiting on funding from Congress. Can you just talk about if production plan would be impacted at all if the order comes three months later, six months later? Can you just update on the current production lead time?
太好了。謝謝。我想再問一下 USPS 那邊,顯然他們正在等待國會撥款。如果訂單晚三個月、晚六個月才下,生產計畫會受到任何影響嗎?也請你更新一下目前的生產交期。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Currently itâs -- I donât think itâs going to affect 2026 because weâve got orders in on the books to produce 2026. But we expect the United States Postal Service will, and they expect, will continue to place orders on an annual basis as time goes by because we have to keep our supply chain with enough visibility to keep the supply chain primed.
目前來看——我不認為會影響 2026 年,因為我們已經有在手訂單可支撐 2026 年的生產。但我們預期美國郵政署(United States Postal Service)會、而且他們也預期會隨著時間推進以年度為基礎持續下單,因為我們必須讓供應鏈有足夠的可視性,才能讓供應鏈保持備戰狀態。
United States Postal Service understands that. We understand that. They want the vehicles are doing extremely well. They want a consistent supply of vehicles for their -- for their required timelines. Weâre meeting their timelines today, so everythingâs going smoothly. In normal course, we expect another order this year. And I donât know that thatâs dependent upon any congressional funding.
美國郵政署理解這點。我們也理解。他們的車輛表現非常好。他們希望能持續穩定供應車輛,以符合他們——符合他們所要求的時程。我們目前正按他們的時程交付,所以一切進展順利。按正常情況,我們預期今年還會有另一筆訂單。而我不確定那是否取決於任何國會撥款。
Itâs really dependent upon the budget for the United States Postal Service. But this program is moving smoothly. And with ASC 606 accounting, when you get an order, it actually impacts your margins as you know. Thatâs why the order is important.
那其實更取決於美國郵政署的預算。但這個專案推進得很順利。而且依照 ASC 606 會計準則,你拿到訂單時,實際上會影響你的毛利率,如你所知。這也是為什麼訂單很重要。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Sure. Thank you.
了解。謝謝。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jerry.
謝謝,Jerry。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Kyle Menges, Citigroup.
Kyle Menges,花旗集團(Citigroup)。
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking my question, guys. For the access segment, certainly orders were a bright spot in the quarter. Iâm just curious maybe where youâre really seeing that incremental demand by region and perhaps bifurcating between the NRCs and the independents.
很好。謝謝你們回答我的問題,各位。就高空作業平台(access)事業部而言,本季訂單確實是一個亮點。我想了解一下,你們主要在哪些地區看到這些增量需求?以及或許能否區分一下 NRC(全國型租賃商)與獨立租賃商(independents)之間的情況。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks for the question. Itâs largely still driven by the bigger projects. We call them frequently mega projects. These are projects that are hundreds of millions of dollars in size as discrete projects, are quantified. So I think data centers and power gen and stuff like that. So thatâs still kind of the bulk of it.
是的。謝謝你的問題。這主要仍是由大型專案所帶動。我們常稱之為「超大型專案」(mega projects)。這些專案以單一專案來看,規模是數億美元等級,且可量化。例如資料中心、發電(power gen)等等。所以這仍然是主要來源。
NRCs tend to get more of that, weâre weighted a bit more to the NRCs, but thatâs okay with us. Weâve got great customers and that we serve there to make this happen. But weâre also starting to see a little bit of brightness in some private non-res end markets. Not all, some. And we expect that thatâll continue to gradually improve going forward.
NRC 通常會承接更多這類需求,我們的客戶結構也稍微偏向 NRC,但我們可以接受。我們在那裡有很好的客戶,我們服務他們來促成這些專案。不過,我們也開始在一些民間非住宅終端市場看到一點亮點。不是全部,是部分。而我們預期未來會逐步持續改善。
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Helpful. And then just to follow up on NGDV production. I think if my math is about correct, you might have been at around plus or minus 12,000 units of annualized production in the quarter. I want to say the guide assumes that you get to the higher end of that 16,000 to 20,000 production run rate in the fourth quarter. Maybe just talk about how the rampâs going so far and your confidence level in getting to that higher end of the production target by 4Q.
很有幫助。接著追問 NGDV 的生產。如果我算得沒錯,本季你們的年化產量大概在正負 12,000 輛左右。我想指引似乎假設你們在第四季能達到 16,000 到 20,000 輛的較高端生產節奏。能否談談目前爬坡(ramp)的進度,以及你們對在第四季達到較高端生產目標的信心?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, just to clarify, our guide assumes the low end of the range. So annual production going forward is 16,000 units to 20,000 units. Part of thatâs dependent upon the Postal Serviceâs schedule to receive vehicles. Weâll be at the low end of the 16,000 units to 20,000 units this year. Production is going well. Weâre in line with Postal Service requirements. Thatâs even with a couple of hiccups with snow and things in South Carolina. That doesnât happen very often. But weâre in line with their expected deliveries on contract, we feel good about it.
是的,先澄清一下,我們的指引是假設區間的低端。所以未來的年產量是 16,000 輛到 20,000 輛。其中一部分取決於郵政署接收車輛的時程安排。今年我們會落在 16,000 到 20,000 輛的低端。生產進展良好。我們符合郵政署的要求。即便南卡羅來納州遇到幾次下雪等小插曲也是如此。那種情況並不常見。但我們的交付進度符合合約中他們預期的交付,我們對此感覺良好。
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Kyle Menges - Analyst
And sorry, just --
抱歉,想再--
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
[Kyle].
[Kyle]。
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Just to clarify quickly, you said youâll be at the low end of that target for the full year or also in the fourth quarter?
我快速確認一下,你說會在該目標的低端,是指全年都在低端,還是第四季也在低端?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
For the full year.
全年。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Full year. Weâll be a low end of 16,000 units to 20,000 units for the full year.
全年。全年我們會在 16,000 輛到 20,000 輛的低端。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Back half is bigger than the first half.
下半年會比上半年大。
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Kyle Menges - Analyst
Got it. Thank you, guys.
了解。謝謝各位。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann,Jefferies。
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Hi. Good morning, guys. Can I ask about Oshkosh AeroTech? That was kind of flat year-over-year. Sounds like you have some orders to ramp that, I guess. Just give me a sense of what youâre seeing in that business. How do the margins kind of relate to the rest of the segment? What are you doing in terms of increases for capacity?
嗨。各位早安。我可以問一下 Oshkosh AeroTech 嗎?那部分年對年大致持平。聽起來你們有一些訂單可以帶動成長,我想。請給我一些你們在該業務看到的情況。其毛利率大概與該事業部其他業務相比如何?在產能提升方面你們正在做哪些增加?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Steve. AeroTechâs a great business for us. I wouldnât read too much into the shipments were kind of flattish in Q1. Q1, itâs just one quarter. You saw our backlog continue to build in AeroTech.
是的。謝謝你的提問,Steve。AeroTech 對我們來說是一項很棒的業務。我不會對第一季出貨量有點持平這件事過度解讀。第一季就只是一個季度。你也看到我們在 AeroTech 的在手訂單持續增加。
So this business is going to continue to grow. Weâve got great customers who want to continue to invest. They are continuing to invest. The backlog is strong. The margins, all I can tell you is theyâre double-digit margins in this business, of course, weâll continue to grow our margins as we go forward. We are putting -- depends on the specific product because we do jet bridges, we do ground service equipment like cargo loading equipment so forth. Depends on the specific product.
所以這項業務會持續成長。我們有很好的客戶,想要持續投資。他們也確實在持續投資。在手訂單很強勁。至於毛利率,我能告訴你的是,這項業務的毛利率是雙位數;當然,我們也會在未來持續提升毛利率。我們正在投入——這取決於具體產品,因為我們做登機空橋,也做地勤設備,例如貨物裝載設備等等。取決於具體產品。
Weâre putting a little bit more bricks and mortar into the jet bridges because itâs a really strong business for us. The ground service equipment is also a strong business. Weâre doing more, a little bit more 80/20 in that business to drive capacity improvement and throughput on the existing production lines.
我們在登機空橋方面投入更多固定資產(廠房設備),因為這對我們來說是一項非常強勁的業務。地勤設備也是一項強勁的業務。我們在那項業務上也做得更多、稍微更偏向 80/20,以推動既有產線的產能改善與產出效率。
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Super. And then just quickly, Matt, the tax rate was a little lower in the first quarter. Whatâs the full year tax rate now?
很好。另外很快問一下,Matt,第一季的稅率稍微低一些。現在全年稅率是多少?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Unchanged from our prior guidance on the full year tax rate.
全年稅率維持我們先前指引不變。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Super. Thank you.
太好了。謝謝。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Steve.
謝謝你,Steve。
Operator
Operator
Tim Thein, Raymond James.
Raymond James 的 Tim Thein。
Tim Thein - Analyst
Tim Thein - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning. The question is on access and Matt, to the extent that perhaps there could be some upside to the 10% margin that you outlined initially. I know thatâs not what youâre going to imprint, but to the extent there is more upside pressure on that part of the business.
謝謝。早安。問題是關於 Access(高空作業平台)業務,Matt,就你一開始提到的 10% 利潤率而言,或許存在一些上行空間。我知道那不是你會直接定調的說法,但如果那部分業務的利潤率確實有更多上行壓力的話。
Iâm just curious how the balance of the year is shaping up in terms of the mix within the backlog. Specifically thinking about kind of the expectations as we go through the year with respect to price cost and kind of how that interplays within the customer and product mix.
我想了解一下,今年剩餘時間在手訂單內部的組合,目前看起來如何。特別是想請你談談,隨著今年推進,對於價格與成本的預期,以及它如何在客戶與產品組合中相互作用。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Tim. So obviously, weâre pleased with the quality of the backlog and this, the book-to-bill of 1.6 was a very strong book-to-bill, which gives us greater confidence for the year shaping up to be a stronger access than what we had originally seen early on. Obviously, price cost, weâve talked about that being neutral for the year.
是的。謝謝你,Tim。很明顯地,我們對在手訂單的品質感到滿意,而 1.6 的接單出貨比(book-to-bill)非常強勁,這讓我們更有信心,今年的 Access 業務走勢會比我們年初原先看到的更強。至於價格與成本,我們先前談過,今年預期是持平(neutral)。
Thatâs still the plan, which means the back half will be stronger as you get cost reductions and pricing, as John described. In terms of the margin, you know, we want to see the year unfold a little bit more before we give specific margins, but certainly holding double-digit margins in this environment and for the year is important.
這仍然是計畫,也就是說,下半年會更強,因為如 John 所描述,你會看到成本下降與定價的效果。就利潤率而言,你知道的,我們希望再多觀察一下今年的進展,再提供具體利潤率,但在這樣的環境下、並且全年維持雙位數利潤率是重要的。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Yeah. Okay. And then the -- within one piece of vocational we didnât yet hit on. Just on the garbage truck side, the volumes for the year, I know the first quarter weâve been anticipating this year to be a softer year, but just any revisions to how you see that playing out in, how we think about the kind of the cadence of year-over-year revenue change as we go through the year for that piece of vocational?
是的。好的。另外,在特種車(vocational)裡有一塊我們還沒談到。就垃圾車那邊而言,今年的出貨量,我知道第一季我們原本就預期今年會比較疲弱,但你們對於它的走勢是否有任何修正?也就是說,我們該如何看待今年過程中,那一塊業務年對年營收變化的節奏?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Not really. I mean, starting in the third quarter, we started to see orders drop off. Weâve talked about that on prior calls. Well, we see the full year being down as we talked about earlier. First quarter, we were down about 25%. I think 25% to 30% for the year is reasonable.
沒有太多。我的意思是,從第三季開始,我們就開始看到訂單下滑。我們在之前的電話會議也談過。我們認為全年會下滑,正如我們先前所說。第一季我們大約下滑了 25%。我認為全年下滑 25% 到 30% 是合理的。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Iâll just add some color to that. You know, itâs similar to what weâve been saying, what we said a quarter ago on the call. We expect it to be down in 2025. That hasnât changed. Itâs about the same. Itâs just cautious CapEx outlays by customers is primarily the reason.
是的。我再補充一些背景。你知道,這跟我們一直在說的、以及一季前電話會議上說的差不多。我們預期 2025 年會下滑。這點沒有改變。大致相同。主要原因是客戶在資本支出(CapEx)上的投入比較謹慎。
Iâll make a comment that we are investing in technology that customers really care about. We launched the contamination detection technology in Q1. Very positive initial feedback on that technology. The fleets remain aged. So long term, we feel really good about this market. Healthy market for us going into 2028. 2026 is just not a year that itâs growing much.
我補充一點:我們正在投資客戶真正重視的技術。我們在第一季推出了污染物偵測技術。對這項技術的初期回饋非常正面。車隊仍然老舊。所以從長期來看,我們對這個市場感覺非常好。對我們而言,這會是一個健康的市場,一路延續到 2028 年。2026 年只是成長不太明顯的一年。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
I got it. Thank you.
了解。謝謝。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Tim.
謝謝你,Tim。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Mike Schulze, D.A. Davidson.
D.A. Davidson 的 Mike Schulze。
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Good morning, and thank you. If we can circle back to the fire commentary. I guess, just looking at overall inventories for Oshkosh, they actually were down a little bit, at least days of inventory over the prior year. You said that perhaps fire had some additional finished goods inventory.
早安,謝謝。如果我們回到消防(Fire)業務的評論。我想,從 Oshkosh 整體庫存來看,至少以庫存天數而言,相較去年其實略有下降。你提到消防業務可能有一些額外的成品庫存。
Could you maybe help at least quantify in dollar how much fire inventory you had at the end of the year and what other areas of Oshkosh had inventory go down? And then also, itâs already been May now. Have people come in to pick up their fire truck now that the weather, assume, has cleared up a bit here?
你能否至少用金額大概量化一下,年底時你們消防業務的庫存有多少?以及 Oshkosh 其他哪些領域的庫存下降?另外,現在已經是 5 月了。天氣我想也稍微好轉了,大家是否已經來把他們的消防車提走了?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Mike. Sorry, Iâm not going to break out inventory by segment. That would be a bridge too far, Iâll give you some qualitative color.
當然可以,Mike。抱歉,我不會按事業部拆分庫存。那就太超出範圍了;我可以給你一些定性的說明。
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
There are a few things. One, last year we had substantial inventories. We were ramping NGDV. As that production stabilized, weâve been burning down inventory there. In Access, weâve done a really good job, focused on inventory, burning down both finished vehicle inventory but also some of our in-process. So that teamâs been doing a good job on inventory. Theyâve also been doing a good job on receivables. The overall really strong working capital performance for all the segments. In terms of May, yes, people have been taking advantage of the beautiful weather here in Wisconsin to pick up fire trucks.
有幾點。第一,去年我們的庫存水位很高。我們當時正在拉升 NGDV 的產能。隨著那邊的生產趨於穩定,我們一直在消化那裡的庫存。在 Access,我們做得非常好,聚焦在庫存,降低成車庫存,也降低了一部分在製品。所以那個團隊在庫存方面做得很好。他們在應收帳款方面也做得很好。整體而言,各事業部的營運資金表現都非常強勁。至於 5 月,是的,大家一直趁著威斯康辛這邊的好天氣來提消防車。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, weâve had a lot more fire truck deliveries in the first part of Q2 as a result of that pent-up hold on shipments due to the factors we mentioned. Thereâs been a lot of fire truck deliveries so far this quarter.
是的,由於我們提到的那些因素導致出貨延後、形成積壓,因此在第二季前段我們交付了更多消防車。本季到目前為止,消防車交付量很多。
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Got it. Great. And then my follow-up here is also on fire. Did the weather issues during the quarter cause any issues with people being able to order or configure a truck or test drive a truck? Were the rains delayed orders? Again, did people come in here in April, May, now that the weatherâs better to actually order some fire trucks?
了解。很好。接著我這邊的追問也聚焦在消防車。本季期間的天候問題,是否造成民眾在下單、配置卡車或試駕卡車方面的任何困難?降雨是否導致訂單延後?再問一次,四月、五月、以及現在天氣轉好之後,是否有人實際到這裡來下單一些消防車?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, no, thatâs not a factor. Order rates are still pretty consistent for us in the fire truck market, even with a big backlog. That has not been an issue. The issue was widespread weather across the country. You saw it in the Northeast. You saw it in New York City. You know, thereâs a lot of places people couldnât get in and out of, and those types of disruptions matter when you have a very formalized delivery process for a fire truck where people have to come in, do their normal inspections before the product can be "shipped".
是的,沒有,那不是因素。那並不是問題。問題在於全國各地廣泛的天候狀況。你在東北部看到了。你在紐約市也看到了。你知道,有很多地方人們進出不便,而當你有一個非常正式化的消防車交付流程時,這類中斷就很重要,因為人們必須到場,在產品可以被「出貨」之前完成例行檢驗。
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Mike Shlisky - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Mike.
謝謝你,Mike。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Mike.
謝謝你,Mike。
Operator
Operator
Chad Dillard, Bernstein.
Chad Dillard,Bernstein。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. A question for you on your vocational business and the sequential ramp. It sounds like youâre getting more deliveries of fire trucks in May, so Iâm assuming maybe seasonality is a little bit better than expected. Just trying to think through the ex-rate in the fourth quarter, given where your production ramp is. Secondly, can you comment on your 1Q fire truck backlog trends? Was the book-to-bill greater than one?
各位早安。我有一個關於你們特種車(vocational)業務以及逐季爬坡的問題。聽起來你們在五月會交付更多消防車,所以我猜季節性可能比預期好一些。只是想在你們的產能爬坡進度下,推敲一下第四季的出廠節奏(ex-rate)。第二,能否評論一下你們第一季消防車的積壓訂單趨勢?接單出貨比(book-to-bill)是否大於 1?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Going by memory, I think our book-to-bill was right around one in fire truck.
憑記憶來看,我想我們消防車的接單出貨比大約就在 1 左右。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, think about it this way. Q2 will be, you know, sequentially much bigger than Q1. Q3 will be sequentially bigger than Q2. Q4 will sequentially be bigger than Q3. In total, we will have a very significant growth rate in fire trucks from 2025 to 2026, and we expect to continue the same in 2027.
是的,可以這樣想。第二季會比第一季逐季大幅增加。第三季會比第二季逐季增加。第四季會比第三季逐季增加。整體而言,從 2025 年到 2026 年,我們的消防車將有非常顯著的成長率,而且我們預期 2027 年也會延續同樣的趨勢。
When you look at the backlog and the health of the business, we are making real changes to our ability to produce fire trucks and more and throughput in our manufacturing plants, which are going to yield very positive results over the next couple of years.
從積壓訂單與業務健康度來看,我們正在對提升消防車產能、以及製造廠的產出與吞吐量做出實質改變,這些將在未來幾年帶來非常正面的成果。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Got it. Thatâs helpful. And then just going back to that $23 million IEPA benefit. Any thoughts on like what the claim process will be for suppliers? I guess, does that $23 million go out of the future date? And then the remaining $10 million for the rest of the year, like how does that layer in?
了解。這很有幫助。另外回到那筆 2,300 萬美元的 IEPA 利益。對於供應商而言,申請流程大概會是什麼樣子?我想問的是,那 2,300 萬美元是否會從未來某個日期開始反映?然後今年剩餘的 1,000 萬美元,會如何分層/反映進來?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Let me help you understand. $23 million is the full refund claimed. Obviously, some of that was for material that was imported within this year, so it will have limited impact on the year because, you know, it just changes whatâs in inventory. Of the $23 million, [$17 million] really is associated with prior years, so that would be the good news of that thirteen and a half we accrued in Q1. So the remainder of the [$4 million], in essence, will be in the second quarter.
是的。我來幫你釐清。2,300 萬美元是申請的全額退稅。當然,其中一部分是今年內進口的材料,所以對今年的影響有限,因為你知道,它只是改變了庫存中的成本。在這 2,300 萬美元中,約有 [1,700 萬美元]其實與前幾年相關,所以這就是我們在第一季提列的 1,350 萬美元的好消息來源。因此,剩餘的約 [400 萬美元],本質上會在第二季反映。
The suppliers follow the same process we do. The CAPE system opened. It worked effectively. It was very efficient. We started to get cash from it already this week. I would expect our suppliers to do the same. It obviously is a discussion with our suppliers. Thatâll happen as that happens naturally.
供應商遵循的流程與我們相同。CAPE 系統已開放。運作得很有效。效率非常高。我們本週已經開始收到現金回款。我預期我們的供應商也會採取同樣作法。這顯然需要與供應商討論。這會在事情自然推進時就會發生。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Steven Fisher, UBS.
Steven Fisher,UBS。
Stephen Fisher - Analyst
Stephen Fisher - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of follow-ups on the tariffs there. What have you assumed, Matt, for the IEPA replacement after the Section 122 tariffs expire in July? Do you think that might be an element of your perhaps priced cost in the second half of the year? Also, are there any USMCA dynamics that we should be aware of as part of these changes?
謝謝。早安。關於關稅我有幾個追問。Matt,你們對於 7 月 Section 122 關稅到期後,IEPA 的替代方案做了什麼假設?你認為這可能會成為你們下半年定價/成本的一個因素嗎?另外,作為這些變動的一部分,有沒有任何我們需要留意的 USMCA 動態?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
So weâre assuming the present tariff landscape continues throughout the full year. We would assume the Section 122 tariffs basically continue and no change to USMCA. So fundamentally, weâre assuming the present tariff landscape extends through the full year.
所以我們假設目前的關稅環境會延續到全年。我們會假設 Section 122 關稅基本上會持續,且 USMCA 不會有變動。因此,基本上我們假設目前的關稅環境會延伸至全年。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Okay, great. And then a follow-up on the vocational side and the fire trucks. I think you may have said last quarter, and correct me if Iâm wrong here, that you had about $150 million of planned spending to improve the overall throughput and production, and maybe youâd spent about half of that.
好的,很好。再追問一下特種車與消防車這邊。我記得你們上季可能提到——如果我記錯請糾正——你們大約有 1.5 億美元的計畫性支出,用來改善整體吞吐量與產能,而且可能已經花了大約一半。
Just kind of curious where you stand on that. It sounds like you are making progress and getting those sequential deliveries to improve over the course of the year and into next year. Just curious, bigger picture on sort of the investments youâre making and when we think we could be through that and more comfortable with the overall throughput of the business line.
想請教目前進度如何。聽起來你們正在取得進展,並且讓逐季交付在今年內、以及到明年持續改善。我想從更宏觀的角度了解你們正在做的投資,以及我們何時可以認為這些投資大致完成,並對這條業務線的整體吞吐量更有把握。
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks for a good memory. It was $150 million. We were about halfway through that end of last year. We continue to make the investments throughout this year. We expect the bulk of that investment to be completed by the end of the year.
是的。謝謝你記得這麼清楚。是 1.5 億美元。去年底我們大約完成了一半。我們今年會持續進行這些投資。我們預期大部分投資會在年底前完成。
As I mentioned, we had some availability of space and getting permits and so forth that shifted a little bit more back end than what we had originally anticipated at the beginning of this year. We would expect the bulk of those investments to be completed by the end of this year, with most of that capacity on stream.
如我提到的,我們在空間可用性、取得許可等方面有一些因素,使得進度比我們今年初原先預期的稍微更偏向後段。我們預期大部分投資會在今年底前完成,且多數產能會上線運轉。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Iâll just let you know, Steve, we have our best people on this, and we have done this before in other segments, and weâre already seeing results from the work that weâve been doing.
我再補充一下,Steve,我們把最優秀的人手投入在這件事上;我們在其他事業部也做過類似的事,而且我們已經開始看到目前所做工作的成果。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Terrific. Thank you.
太好了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.
Jamie Cook,Truist Securities。
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. I guess two questions. One, John, you know, just on the M&A front, youâve been a little quiet for you know what I mean, in terms of not doing deals in a while. Then Iâm just wondering too, if thereâs parts of your portfolio that are underperforming relative to your targets, which could be an opportunity for you.
嗨。早安。我想問兩個問題。第一,John,就併購(M&A)而言,你們最近相對安靜——你懂我意思——就是有一段時間沒有做交易了。第二我也想問,你們的投資組合中是否有某些部分相較於你們的目標表現不佳,這可能會成為你們的機會。
Then my second question, just as it relates to the guide, and I guess it being more of a back-end loaded year, how would you characterize sort of whatâs in your control versus more macro? I guess from the call, it sounds like a lot more of it. Itâs just the capacity, you know what I mean, from vocational thatâs pushing things out. So to the degrees itâs under control, my guess is people would get more comfortable with the back-end loaded guide, but just any color there. Thank you.
那我的第二個問題,與指引相關,我想今年比較偏向下半年發力(後段加重),你會如何描述哪些是你們可控的、哪些比較偏向總體環境因素?我想從電話會議聽起來,好像可控的部分多很多。主要就是產能,你懂我意思吧,是職業教育(vocational)那邊的產能把事情往後推。所以在可控的程度上,我猜大家會對下半年加重的指引更安心一些,但想請你補充一些顏色(細節)。謝謝。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks, Jamie. Let me start with your first question, which is on the M&A front. We always talk about our always on process. Always on means we are always looking at targets, and weâre very patient, and weâre very picky about what we think makes sense. If you look at the deals that weâve done there, we like every single one of them.
是的。謝謝你,Jamie。我先回答你的第一個問題,也就是併購(M&A)方面。我們一直在談我們的「always on」流程。「Always on」的意思是我們一直在看標的,我們非常有耐心,也非常挑剔,只做我們認為合理的案子。如果你看我們做過的交易,我們每一筆都很喜歡。
Thereâs not one that we have any regrets about. Theyâre all contributing to the health of our company. M&A activity can be a bit lumpy. Weâve done some smaller technology deals recently. Like we bought Canvas is a really important part of JLGâs autonomy strategy.
沒有任何一筆是我們後悔的。它們都在為公司的健康狀況做出貢獻。併購活動有時會比較不均勻、呈現跳動(lumpy)。我們最近做了一些較小的科技交易。例如我們收購了 Canvas,這是 JLG 自主化(autonomy)策略中非常重要的一部分。
So youâll see us continue to do some things certainly on the technology front. When we see the right opportunity, again, weâre patient, weâre a bit picky. It can be lumpy. Weâll make another acquisition outside of technology as well.
所以你會看到我們會持續做一些事情,特別是在科技面向。當我們看到合適的機會時,再次強調,我們有耐心、也比較挑剔。它可能會呈現跳動(lumpy)。我們也會在科技以外再做一次收購。
Let me go to the second half of your question, which is the second half of this year. What supports our view on the second half of the year, number 1 is the access equipment business is continuing to gain a little bit of momentum. We feel good about it. We feel good about our price cost building as we go through the year. Thatâs a big part of it. In addition to that, we continue to talk about fire trucks.
我來回答你問題的後半段,也就是今年下半年。支撐我們對下半年看法的第一點,是高空作業設備(access equipment)業務持續累積一些動能。我們對此感覺良好。隨著年度推進,我們對價格與成本的改善(price-cost building)也很有信心。這是很大的一部分。此外,我們也持續談到消防車。
Fire trucks is a great business for us. Fire departments need more trucks. We got a big backlog. Weâll continue to increase production every quarter as we go through the year. That will materially impact the second half of the year. Weâve also got our NGDV ramp, gets bigger in the second half than it has been in the first half. We expect an order with ASC 606 accounting, an order boosts margins on the program.
消防車對我們來說是一門很棒的生意。消防單位需要更多車輛。我們有很大的在手訂單(backlog)。隨著年度推進,我們會每一季持續提高產量。這會對下半年產生實質影響。另外,我們的 NGDV 產能爬坡(ramp)在下半年會比上半年更大。我們預期會有一筆訂單;在 ASC 606 會計處理下,訂單會提升該專案的毛利率。
And finally, our FMTV contract starts to kick in. The new contract kicks in in the second half of the year. Thatâs materially higher pricing on that contract. That makes a nice boost to our business as well as FMTVs will have a big jump in pricing and margins. Those are the primary factors. If you look at that, a lot of thatâs within our control.
最後,我們的 FMTV 合約開始發揮作用。新合約會在下半年開始生效。該合約的定價明顯更高。這也會為我們的業務帶來不錯的提振,因為 FMTV 的定價與毛利率都會大幅跳升。以上是主要因素。如果你看這些因素,其中很大一部分都在我們的掌控之中。
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jamie.
謝謝你,Jamie。
Operator
Operator
Steve Barger, KeyBank Capital Markets.
Steve Barger,KeyBank Capital Markets。
Steve Barger - Analyst
Steve Barger - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Going back to the AeroTech capacity expansions, after you do the bricks and mortar and the 80/20 actions, how much will capacity expand in percentage terms? How will throughput grow, and what revenue will the business be capacitized to?
嗨,謝謝。早安。回到 AeroTech 的產能擴張,在你們完成硬體設施(bricks and mortar)以及 80/20 行動之後,產能以百分比來看會擴張多少?吞吐量會如何成長?這項業務的產能化(capacitized)後可支撐到多少營收規模?
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Field - Chief Financial Officer
I think thatâll be subject to a future conversation, Steve. Itâs a good question. Weâll have more to say on that in the future. That capacity, just a little bit of clarification. Bricks and mortar is a strong term. Weâre not building new buildings, but weâre expanding some work inside. Weâre upgrading some facilities, improving throughput, some production efficiency, specifically around jet bridges. That takes a little time. So weâll be talking more about that more around 2027 than 2026.
我想這會留待未來再談,Steve。這是個好問題。我們之後會再多說一些。關於產能,我補充澄清一下。「Bricks and mortar」這個說法有點強。我們不是在蓋新大樓,但我們會擴充一些內部作業。我們會升級部分設施、提升吞吐量、改善一些生產效率,特別是圍繞登機空橋(jet bridges)。這需要一些時間。所以我們更可能在 2027 年左右、而不是 2026 年,談更多相關內容。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Okay. And then John, just following up on the last question about second half waiting and whatâs in your control, and just extending that thought process to 2028. Can you just reiterate why you see that path as achievable? Are you leaning at this point toward the low scenario for '28, or do you think mid is still achievable?
了解。接著 John,我想延續上一題關於下半年權重以及哪些在你們掌控之中的問題,並把這個思路延伸到 2028 年。你能否再重申一次,為什麼你們認為那條路徑是可達成的?就目前而言,你們是偏向 2028 年的低情境(low scenario),還是你認為中情境(mid)仍可達成?
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. We still would say mid is right where we expect to be. I mean, when you look at the demand in our end markets, and you look at our backlogs that weâve already got, thatâs the underpinning of it. Then you look at the work that weâre doing to right-size our capacity to be able to deliver, thatâs the confidence that we have in 2028.
不。我們仍然會說,中情境(mid)就是我們預期會落點的位置。我的意思是,當你看我們終端市場的需求,再看我們已經擁有的在手訂單(backlogs),那就是其基礎支撐。接著你再看我們正在做的工作,把產能調整到合適規模(right-size)以便能夠交付,這就是我們對 2028 年有信心的原因。
The technology that we build into our products, which is right in line with what our customers really want us to do, whether itâs autonomous operation or itâs embedding AI, or in some cases still, when it makes sense, electrification, thatâs all part of why we are, why weâre so bullish on '28.
我們在產品中導入的技術,完全符合客戶真正希望我們做的事情——不論是自主化操作(autonomous operation)、嵌入 AI,或在某些情況下、當合理時,推動電動化(electrification)——這些都是我們為何對 2028 年如此看多(bullish)的原因之一。
Weâre defining what the future of these end markets should look like, whether itâs an airport, a construction site, a neighborhood operation. Weâre really defining what the future should be, which is better than what it has been in the past, and that drives our confidence in delivering 2028.
我們正在定義這些終端市場的未來應該長什麼樣子——不論是機場、工地,或社區作業。我們確實在定義未來應該是什麼樣子,而且會比過去更好,而這也驅動我們對達成 2028 年目標的信心。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Thatâs good detail. I appreciate it.
這些細節很有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Davidson for closing comments.
謝謝。此時,我想把會議交回 Davidson 先生作結語。
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Pfeifer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Donna. Thanks for joining us on the call today. We will be meeting with investors at several conferences during May and June, and have a good rest of the day.
謝謝你,Donna。感謝各位今天參與電話會議。我們將在 5 月與 6 月於數個會議中與投資人會面,祝各位今天剩下的時間愉快。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines and logoffs the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.
各位女士先生,今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以中斷電話線並登出網路直播,祝您今天剩下的時間愉快。