Old National Bancorp (ONB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Old National Bank Corp third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加老國家銀行公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC's regulation FD.

根據美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的 FD 法規，本次通話正在錄音並向公眾公開。

Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the investor relations page at oldnational.com and will be archived there for 12 months.

相應的簡報投影片可以在 oldnational.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到，並將在那裡存檔 12 個月。

Management would like to remind everyone that certain statements on today's call may be forward-looking in nature and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ from those discussed.

管理階層謹提醒大家，今天電話會議中的某些陳述可能具有前瞻性，並受到某些風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果或結果與討論的結果不同。

The company refers you to its forward-looking statement legend in the earnings release and presentation slides.

該公司向您推薦其收益發布和演示幻燈片中的前瞻性聲明圖例。

The company's risk factors are fully disclosed and discussed within its SEC filings.

該公司的風險因素在其向 SEC 提交的文件中得到了充分披露和討論。

In addition, certain slides contain non-GAAP measures which management believes provide more appropriate comparisons.

此外，某些投影片包含非公認會計準則衡量標準，管理階層認為這些衡量標準提供了更合適的比較。

These non-GAAP measures are intended to assist investors' understanding of performance trends.

這些非公認會計準則衡量標準旨在幫助投資者了解績效趨勢。

Reconciliations for these numbers are contained within the appendix of the presentation.

這些數字的調節包含在簡報的附錄中。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Old National's Chairman and CEO, Jim Ryan for opening remarks, Mr. Ryan.

Ryan 先生，我現在想將電話轉給 Old National 董事長兼執行長 Jim Ryan 致開幕詞。

Good morning.

早安.

Earlier today, Old National reported our third quarter 2024 results with earnings per share in line with expectations.

今天早些時候，Old National 公佈了 2024 年第三季業績，每股盈餘符合預期。

The solid third quarter results were driven by our ability to execute on our organic growth strategy and invest in new markets and talent in our footprint.

第三季的穩健表現得益於我們執行有機成長策略以及投資新市場和人才的能力。

Our results were also driven by the strong organic deposit growth, prudent long growth, durable margin management, and focused efforts in growing our fee income businesses.

我們的業績也受到強勁的有機存款成長、審慎的長期成長、持久的利潤管理以及致力於發展我們的手續費收入業務的推動。

Moving to our third quarter highlights on slide 4, we reported GAAP earnings of $0.44 per common share and our adjusted EPS was $0.46. Our adjusted ROATC for the quarter was 16.8% and our adjusted ROA was 1.13%.

轉向幻燈片 4 上的第三季亮點，我們公佈的 GAAP 每股普通股收益為 0.44 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.46 美元。本季調整後的 ROATC 為 16.8%，調整後的 ROA 為 1.13%。

Our adjusted efficiency ratio was a low 51.2%.

我們調整後的效率只有 51.2%。

Our core deposit growth was strong at 10.1% annualized with our noninterest bearing deposits growing nearly $100 million during the quarter.

我們的核心存款成長強勁，年化成長率為 10.1%，本季無息存款成長近 1 億美元。

Our total cost of deposits for the quarter remains at a low 225 basis points and we were already taking advantage of recent Fed actions which John will touch on later in his comments.

我們本季的總存款成本仍保持在 225 個基點的低水平，而且我們已經利用了聯準會最近採取的行動，約翰稍後將在評論中談到這一點。

Meanwhile, our commercial loans were up 4.1% annualized due to disciplined client selection.

同時，由於嚴格的客戶選擇，我們的商業貸款年化成長了 4.1%。

Growing our tangible common book value per share remains a top priority rising 8% since the second quarter of 2024 and 21% year over year.

提高每股有形普通帳面價值仍然是我們的首要任務，自 2024 年第二季以來成長 8%，年增 21%。

In summary, our third quarter, 2024 earnings evidenced another strong quarter for Old National.

總之，我們 2024 年第三季的收益證明了 Old National 又一個強勁的季度。

We remain focused on the fundamentals.

我們仍然專注於基本面。

Continue to fund loan growth with low cost core deposits, effectively managing credit, creating positive operating leverage through disciplined expense management, and consistently growing tangible book value per share.

繼續以低成本核心存款為貸款成長提供資金，有效管理信貸，透過嚴格的費用管理創造積極的營運槓桿，並持續成長每股有形帳面價值。

With that, I will now turn the call over to John Moran.

現在，我將把電話轉給約翰·莫蘭。

Thanks Jim.

謝謝吉姆。

Turning to slide 5.

轉到投影片 5。

You can see our third quarter balance sheet which highlights continued improvement in our liquidity and our capital position.

您可以看到我們第三季的資產負債表，其中突顯了我們的流動性和資本狀況的持續改善。

Total deposit growth over the last year has again allowed us to organically fund loan growth while reducing our borrowings.

去年存款總額的成長再次使我們能夠在減少借款的同時為貸款成長提供有機資金。

As Jim just mentioned, we grew our tangible book value per share by 21% over the last year and by 8% from the prior quarter.

正如吉姆剛才所提到的，我們每股有形帳面價值比去年成長了 21%，比上一季成長了 8%。

We ended the quarter with a strong CET1 ratio of 11% and we continue to expect that we will accrete capital at a faster pace than most.

本季末，我們的 CET1 比率高達 11%，我們繼續預期我們將以比大多數公司更快的速度累積資本。

Our liquidity and capital levels continue to provide a strong foundation which positions us well as we finish 2024.

我們的流動性和資本水準繼續為我們在 2024 年結束時保持良好的地位奠定了堅實的基礎。

On slide 6, we show our earning asset trends.

在投影片 6 上，我們展示了我們的獲利資產趨勢。

Total loans grew 2.7% annualized from last quarter in line with industry performance with strong production in our commercial book in the quarter, partly offset by payoffs.

總貸款較上季年化成長 2.7%，與本季商業帳簿生產強勁的產業表現一致，但部分被回報所抵銷。

We remain focused on full relationships and structure at prices that meet our risk adjusted return requirements.

我們仍然專注於滿足我們風險調整回報要求的價格的完整關係和結構。

Quarterly new loan production rates in the mid-7% range and marginal funding costs in the low 4% range support our expectation that net interest income will grow modestly in 4Q '24.

季度新貸款收益率在 7% 的中間範圍內，邊際融資成本在 4% 的低範圍內，這支持了我們的預期，即淨利息收入將在 2024 年第四季小幅增長。

The investment portfolio increased 3% in the quarter due to reinvestment of cash flows and positive changes in fair values with duration decreasing to just under four years.

由於現金流再投資和公允價值的積極變化，投資組合在本季度增長了 3%，期限縮短至不到四年。

We have approximately $2 billion in cash flows expected over the next 12 months.

預計未來 12 個月我們的現金流量約為 20 億美元。

New money yields are currently running approximately 110 basis points above backbook yields on securities and approximately 175 basis points above backbook yields on fixed rate loans.

目前，新貨幣收益率比證券帳簿收益率高出約 110 個基點，比固定利率貸款帳簿收益率高出約 175 個基點。

Moving to slide 7, we show our trend in total deposits which grew 8.5% annualized from 2Q.

轉向投影片 7，我們顯示了總存款的趨勢，較第二季年化成長 8.5%。

Core deposits ex-brokered were up an even better 10% annualized and we saw a nearly $100 million increase in noninterest bearing deposits in the quarter.

未經紀的核心存款年化成長率甚至更高，達 10%，我們看到本季無息存款增加了近 1 億美元。

Commercial and community deposits were up and public funds on normal seasonal increases.

商業和社區存款增加，公共資金出現正常的季節性成長。

Our brokered deposits decreased and at 4.2% as a percentage of total deposits, our use of brokered remains well below peer levels.

我們的經紀存款下降，佔總存款的比例為 4.2%，我們的經紀存款使用量仍遠低於同業水準。

We did see a 9 basis point increase in deposit rates compared to the prior quarter as we remained on offense with respect to client acquisition and we drove our loan to deposit ratio below 90%.

與上一季相比，我們確實看到存款利率上升了 9 個基點，因為我們在獲取客戶方面仍然處於進攻狀態，我們將貸款與存款比率降低到了 90% 以下。

Total deposit costs decreased in September consistent with fed actions and our spot rate at September 30, was 212 basis points.

9 月總存款成本下降，與聯準會的行動一致，9 月 30 日的即期利率為 212 個基點。

Moreover, our exception price book has seen a 90% down beta since we started lowering rates in that book in early 2Q.

此外，自從我們在第二季初開始降低例外價格簿中的利率以來，我們的例外價格簿的貝塔值已經下降了 90%。

This was in line with our expectations.

這符合我們的預期。

Overall, we are highly confident in the execution of our deposit strategy and it continues to unfold as we expected.

總體而言，我們對存款策略的執行充滿信心，並且它繼續按照我們的預期展開。

We are prepared to proactively respond to future Fed rate actions and the evolving environment while staying focused on driving above peer deposit growth at reasonable costs.

我們準備積極應對未來的聯準會利率行動和不斷變化的環境，同時繼續專注於以合理的成本推動高於同業的存款成長。

Slide 8 provides our quarter end income statement.

第 8 張投影片提供了我們的季末損益表。

We reported GAAP net income applicable to common shares of $140 million or $0.44 per share.

我們公佈的適用於普通股的 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.4 億美元，即每股 0.44 美元。

Reported earnings include $0.02 per share of merger related and separation expenses.

報告收益包括每股 0.02 美元的合併相關費用和分拆費用。

Excluding these items, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.46.

排除這些項目，我們調整後的每股收益為 0.46 美元。

Moving on to slide 9.

繼續看投影片 9。

We present details of our net interest income and margin.

我們提供淨利息收入和利潤率的詳細資訊。

Net interest income grew as expected while net interest margin was essentially unchanged as increases in asset yields and accretion were offset by deposit costs.

淨利息收入成長符合預期，而淨利差基本上不變，因為資產收益率和增值的成長被存款成本所抵銷。

Year over year, we again showed deposit growth that essentially kept pace with asset generation while maintaining a low total cost of funding.

與去年同期相比，我們再次顯示存款成長基本上與資產產生保持同步，同時保持較低的總融資成本。

Slide 10 shows trends in adjusted noninterest income which was $94 million for the quarter and above our expectations.

投影片 10 顯示了本季調整後非利息收入的趨勢，該收入為 9,400 萬美元，高於我們的預期。

Our primary fee businesses all performed well with bank fees ahead of expectations, mortgage benefiting from seasonality and a modest improvement in production, and capital markets benefiting from CRE production.

我們的主要收費業務均表現良好，銀行費用超出預期，抵押貸款受益於季節性和生產的適度改善，資本市場受益於商業地產生產。

Continuing to slide 11, we show the trend in adjusted noninterest expenses of $263 million for the quarter.

繼續投影片 11，我們顯示了本季調整後非利息支出 2.63 億美元的趨勢。

Expenses remain well controlled and we generated positive link quarter operating leverage.

費用保持良好控制，我們產生了積極的季度營運槓桿。

On slide 12, we present our credit trends which reflect the quality of both our commercial and consumer portfolios.

在投影片 12 上，我們展示了反映我們商業和消費者投資組合品質的信貸趨勢。

Total net charge offs were 19 basis points and a low 16 basis points excluding 3 basis points related to PCD loans.

淨沖減總額為 19 個基點，低 16 個基點，不包括與 PCD 貸款相關的 3 個基點。

The nonperforming loan ratio increased 8 basis points due mostly to poor borrowers in unrelated sectors that we are actively monitoring.

不良貸款率上升 8 個基點，主要是由於我們正在積極監測的不相關行業的不良借款人。

The third quarter allowance for credit losses to total loans including the reserve for unfunded commitments was 112 basis points, up 4 basis points from the prior quarter.

第三季信貸損失準備金佔貸款總額（包括無資金承諾準備金）的比例為 112 個基點，比上一季上升 4 個基點。

Risk rating migration over the last several quarters has been driven by the effects of higher interest rates and a more conservative posture in our risk rating framework.

過去幾季的風險評級遷移是由較高的利率和我們的風險評級框架中更保守的態度所推動的。

While the grade migration has resulted in an increase in our quantitative reserves, our total qualitative reserves are unchanged from the prior quarter.

雖然品位遷移導致我們的數量儲備增加，但我們的總品質儲備與上一季相比沒有變化。

Qualitative reserves now incorporate a 100% weighting on the Moody's S-2 scenario with additional qualitative factors to capture the possibility of further grade migration.

定性儲備現在納入了穆迪 S-2 情境的 100% 權重以及其他定性因素，以捕捉進一步等級遷移的可能性。

This is logical as greater conviction comes into focus that a hardly ending scenario is unlikely.

這是合乎邏輯的，因為人們越來越相信，難以結束的情況不太可能發生。

Moreover, the S-2 scenario assumes an unemployment rate that is 70% higher than current levels and negative GDP.

此外，S-2情境假設失業率比目前水準高出70%且GDP為負值。

Also we remind you that our allowance for credit losses plus the discount remaining on acquired loans to total loans now stands at nearly 160 basis points.

我們也提醒您，我們的信貸損失準備金加上已購貸款剩餘折扣與總貸款的比例目前接近 160 個基點。

Slide 13 presents key credit metrics relative to peers.

投影片 13 展示了相對於同業的關鍵信用指標。

As you can see, our proactive approach to credit monitoring has led to above peer levels of NPLs but delinquency and charge off ratios that are well below peer averages over time.

正如您所看到的，我們積極主動的信用監控方法使得不良貸款率高於同行水平，但拖欠率和沖銷率卻遠低於同行平均水平。

We have long practiced conservatism and we continue to believe that the results speak for themselves.

我們長期以來一直奉行保守主義，並且仍然相信結果不言而喻。

On slide 14, we review our capital position at the end of the quarter.

在投影片 14 中，我們回顧了季度末的資本狀況。

All ratios increased driven by strong retained earnings.

所有比率均因強勁的留存收益而成長。

In addition, the rate environment further aided TCE build.

此外，利率環境進一步協助TCE建設。

Slide 15 includes updated details on our rate-risk position and net interest income guidance.

投影片 15 包含有關我們的利率風險狀況和淨利息收入指引的最新詳細資訊。

NII is expected to increase modestly in the fourth quarter.

預計第四季NII將小幅成長。

Our assumptions are listed on the slide but I would highlight a few of the primary drivers.

我們的假設列在投影片上，但我想強調一些主要驅動因素。

First, we assume two rate cuts of 25 basis points each consistent with the forward curve.

首先，我們假設兩次降息 25 個基點，每次降息與遠期曲線一致。

Second, we are now anticipating a declining rate, total deposit beta of approximately 30% and a non-interest bearing to total deposit mix that remains stable at 24%.

其次，我們現在預期利率會下降，總存款貝他係數約為 30%，無利息存款組合將穩定在 24%。

We continue to believe that we have positioned the balance sheet well and we have maintained our neutral rate risk position.

我們仍然相信，我們的資產負債表定位良好，並且維持中性利率風險立場。

Slide 16 includes our outlook for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024.

投影片 16 包括我們對第四季和 2024 年全年的展望。

You can see the details in the chart but it is worth pointing out that our full year outlook for preprovision net revenue remains unchanged from the initial expectations we shared with you in January of this year.

您可以在圖表中看到詳細信息，但值得指出的是，我們對預撥淨收入的全年展望與我們今年 1 月與您分享的最初預期保持不變。

And our outlook proved more durable than many peers.

事實證明，我們的前景比許多同行更持久。

Full year loan growth and NII are expected to be right in line with those original expectations while higher fee income is expected to be partially offset by higher noninterest expenses.

全年貸款成長和NII預計將與最初的預期相符，而較高的費用收入預計將被較高的非利息支出部分抵消。

Net charge offs are in line with our original range, while provision expense is slightly higher than originally expected as a result of grade migration driven by our proactive approach to credit management.

淨沖銷與我們原來的範圍一致，而撥備費用略高於最初預期，這是由於我們積極主動的信用管理方法推動的等級遷移的結果。

In summary year-to-date 2024 results have been excellent with third quarter results in line with our expectations and strong performance metrics.

總之，2024 年迄今的業績非常出色，第三季的業績符合我們的預期和強勁的業績指標。

More importantly, we continue to demonstrate our ability to execute against our strategic priorities.

更重要的是，我們繼續展示我們執行策略重點的能力。

First, we are driving organic deposit growth to fund our asset generation.

首先，我們正在推動有機存款成長，為我們的資產生成提供資金。

Second, our adjusted return profile remains top quartile against peers at 17% on tangible common equity.

其次，我們的調整後回報率在有形普通股方面仍處於同業前四分之一的水平，為 17%。

Third, we remain disciplined on expenses, driving positive operating leverage and an adjusted efficiency ratio of 51%.

第三，我們繼續嚴格控制開支，推動積極的營運槓桿和 51% 的調整後效率。

Fourth, our borrowers remain resilient as evidenced by non-PCB net charge offs of just 16 basis points.

第四，我們的借款人仍然保持彈性，非 PCB 淨沖減僅 16 個基點就證明了這一點。

And we believe we have ample reserve coverage along with a well-diversified and granular loan book.

我們相信，我們擁有充足的準備金覆蓋率以及多元化且細化的貸款簿。

And fifth, we are continuing to rapidly compound tangible book value per share, which was up 21% year over year.

第五，我們持續快速實現每股有形帳面價值的複合成長，年增 21%。

With those comments, we'd like to open the call for your questions.

帶著這些評論，我們想開始詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning guys.

早安各位。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

Good morning.

早安.

Good to hear from you.

很高興收到你的來信。

Hey, likewise.

嘿嘿，同樣的。

You too, thank you.

你也是，謝謝。

So just want to -- John, I appreciate the comments on the sort of the full year NII, I guess the fourth quarter, in particular, the expectation may be a little lighter than what we had hoped 90 days ago.

所以我想——約翰，我很欣賞對全年 NII 的評論，我想特別是第四季度，預期可能比我們 90 天前的希望要淡一些。

I suspect it's sort of just a function of what happened with the belly of the curve since then as well as the different timing of the fed moves.

我懷疑這只是自那時以來曲線腹部發生的情況以及聯準會採取行動的不同時機的函數。

But would love to hear in your words, anything that has changed.

但很想聽聽你的話，任何改變。

And then I know you touched on like the $2 billion of cash flows over the next 12 months, if you can maybe offer any updated thoughts on sort of how powerfully the NII base could advance from the fourth quarter expectation and just sort of main levers additionally that you would see allowing it to do so.

然後我知道您談到了未來 12 個月 20 億美元的現金流，如果您能提供任何最新的想法，說明 NII 基礎可以從第四季度的預期中獲得多大的推動力，以及另外一些主要槓桿你會看到允許它這樣做。

Perfect.

完美的。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Scott, your suspicion is right on, on the NII guide.

嘿，斯科特，你的懷疑在 NII 指南上是正確的。

Really, it's a touch on the five year belly of the curve being a little bit a little bit lower is driving that outlook.

事實上，五年期曲線腹部的一點點下降推動了這個前景。

And then on securities, roughly $2 billion in cash flow coming off of that book over the next 12 months.

然後在證券方面，未來 12 個月內該帳簿將產生約 20 億美元的現金流。

Pick up there about 110 basis points against the backbook.

相對於帳簿，上漲約 110 個基點。

So certainly that'll be helpful and we would anticipate plowing most of that just right back into the securities book.

因此，這當然會有所幫助，我們預計將大部分資金重新投入證券帳簿。

At the margin, there could be a touch, if long growth comes in stronger, maybe we let that come in just a little bit, but I think most of that will go back into securities at this point.

在邊際上，如果長期成長變得更加強勁，可能會有所影響，也許我們只是讓它進來一點點，但我認為此時大部分將回到證券領域。

Okay, perfect.

好的，完美。

And then maybe if John, if you could expand a little on some of the reserving comments, just in particular, trying to get my arms around, why credit costs a little higher this quarter and expect it to be so at least relative to what I would have anticipated next quarter.

然後，也許約翰，如果你能詳細闡述一些保留意見，特別是試圖讓我擁抱一下，為什麼本季度的信貸成本會稍高一些，並預計至少相對於我的情況會如此。

Is this something that will continue for a little while or is it kind of a transitory catchup?

這種情況會持續一段時間還是只是暫時的追趕？

How should we think about those sort of dynamics?

我們該如何看待這些動態？

I think it's just normalization of credit here.

我認為這只是信用的正常化。

I think for the year we sort of tightened the range on the guidance, but it's still, I think at the beginning of the year we were saying 15 to 20 basis points on chargeoffs, we're now sitting at 17 to 20 basis points on chargeoffs.

我認為今年我們收緊了指導範圍，但我認為年初我們說沖銷為 15 至 20 個基點，現在我們的沖銷幅度為 17 至 20 個基點。

So I don't think that there's any real difference in our expectation around lost content.

因此，我認為我們對丟失內容的期望沒有任何真正的差異。

And the provision that you saw in the quarter was kind of covering chargeoffs and building a little bit of reserve.

您在本季看到的規定是沖銷和建立一點儲備金。

Okay.

好的。

All right, perfect.

好吧，完美。

Thank you guys very much.

非常感謝你們。

Thanks Scott.

謝謝斯科特。

Brendan Nosal, HOVDE Group.

布倫丹·諾薩爾，HOVDE 集團。

Hey, good morning folks.

嘿，大家早安。

Hope you're doing well.

希望你一切都好。

Thanks Brendan.

謝謝布倫丹。

Let me just start off here looking a little further out on kind of the margin and NII dynamics.

讓我先從這裡開始進一步探討利潤率和國家資訊基礎設施動態。

I heard your comments again this quarter on a relatively rate neutral balance sheet positioning.

我本季再次聽到您關於利率相對中立的資產負債表定位的評論。

Maybe just offer some thoughts on how you expect the NIM to traject across 2025.

也許只是提供一些關於您期望 NIM 在 2025 年如何發展的想法。

If we end up getting the forward curves, like let's say 200 basis points or so of cuts by the end of next year.

如果我們最終得到遠期曲線，例如到明年年底削減 200 個基點左右。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Brendan.

是的，布倫丹。

I think, what you're seeing here is kind of bottoming in 3Q, 4Q probably up a little bit.

我認為，您在這裡看到的是第三季觸底，第四季可能會略有上升。

Our bias would be up a little bit.

我們的偏見會上升一點。

I think our bias in 3Q was kind of stable down a little bit and that played out.

我認為我們對第三季度的偏見有點穩定下來，並且這一點得到了體現。

I think as we look out into 2025, de-inverting in the yield curve and continued growth in the underlying franchise are going to be helpful for us.

我認為，展望 2025 年，殖利率曲線的去倒掛和基礎業務的持續成長將對我們有所幫助。

And, look, I think that's helpful for us, it's helpful for the whole industry.

而且，你看，我認為這對我們有幫助，對整個產業都有幫助。

So I think that will be the key factor next year.

所以我認為這將是明年的關鍵因素。

Okay, perfect.

好的，完美。

Maybe one more from me.

也許我還會再發一份。

Just kind of looking at the charge off rate on the SP CD kind of core loan book, seeing a little bit higher numbers over the past two quarters, just wondering how you would characterize that?

只是看看 SP CD 類核心貸款帳簿上的沖銷率，看到過去兩個季度的數字略高，只是想知道您如何描述這一點？

Is that still well within the framework of normalization off of a low base or is it indicative of perhaps some gradual weakening?

這是否仍處於低基數正常化的框架內，或者是否表示可能會逐漸減弱？

No, I think you hit the nail, I'm happy with your first option, Brendan, which is its normalization of credit are still well within our guidance.

不，我認為你擊中了要害，我對你的第一個選擇感到滿意，布倫丹，即信貸正常化仍然在我們的指導範圍內。

As John said, we started the year at 15% to 20%, we're now 17% to 20% for the full year.

正如約翰所說，我們年初的成長率為 15% 至 20%，現在全年的成長率為 17% 至 20%。

And so as credit normalizes, I think that's just what you're seeing.

因此，隨著信貸正常化，我認為這正是您所看到的。

All right, fantastic.

好吧，太棒了。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Thanks Brendan.

謝謝布倫丹。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

班傑林格，花旗銀行。

Can you guys talk through your appetite for kind of hiring and where you might be targeting?

你們能談談你們對招募類型的興趣以及你們可能的目標嗎？

And it's more so obviously at '25 or even meeting the '26 questions.

在 25 年甚至在回答 26 個問題時，這一點更加明顯。

But again, like from the balance sheet perspective, you seem pretty well situated for the current rate outlook.

但同樣，從資產負債表的角度來看，您似乎對當前的利率前景處於非常有利的位置。

I just kind of appetite on hiring and any trends you might want to highlight?

我只是對招募有興趣，您想強調一下什麼趨勢嗎？

Ben, it's Mark.

本，是馬克。

I would answer it this way.

我會這樣回答。

I think we're open and opportunistic, but we don't need to do anything really.

我認為我們是開放的、機會主義的，但我們不需要真正做任何事。

We like the team that we have.

我們喜歡我們擁有的團隊。

We think we can outgrow industry, loan growth.

我們認為我們的成長能夠超越工業和貸款的成長。

I think our deposit performance, growth performance has been terrific, and all of our teams are focused on that.

我認為我們的存款表現、成長表現非常出色，我們所有的團隊都專注於此。

So I don't think we need to do anything, but we will continue to look to opportunistically fill in good talent.

所以我認為我們不需要做任何事情，但我們將繼續尋找機會填補優秀人才。

We say it all the time pays for itself quickly.

我們總是說，它很快就能收回成本。

And so if people come along, but we're also watching expenses closely.

因此，如果有人來，我們也會密切注意費用。

And so we're not looking to have talent unless just a great opportunity comes along.

因此，除非有很好的機會，否則我們不會尋求人才。

Yeah, I might add on top of that.

是的，我可能會補充一點。

As we think about talent acquisition, we're particularly paying attention to our fee income businesses.

當我們考慮人才獲取時，我們特別關注我們的收費收入業務。

If you think about treasury management, you think about our wealth management businesses, those are businesses that again have a little bit longer earn back on the hires that we think are the right long term investments for us, particularly as we just transition to a larger institution, have more opportunities in that space.

如果你想到資金管理，你會想到我們的財富管理業務，這些業務再次從我們認為對我們來說是正確的長期投資的員工中獲得更長的回報，特別是當我們剛剛過渡到更大的規模時機構，在該領域有更多機會。

And so that's an area.

這就是一個區域。

As Mark says, we have plenty of balance sheet growth and don't feel like we need to have more relationship managers there to grow the balance sheet.

正如馬克所說，我們的資產負債表有很大的成長，我們認為我們不需要更多的客戶關係經理來擴大資產負債表。

However, on those fee income business and there will be continued opportunities for us to be successful.

然而，在這些費用收入業務上，我們將有持續的成功機會。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then when you think about the integration and going forward, kind of let's call it the Southeast or kind of is there any additional costs now that you kind of have the integration in place, you kind of have your lay of the land, anything that you would want to potentially call as incrementally more positive on growth, or thoughts on an additional expense costs, just not that you have your feet under you here?

然後，當你考慮整合和前進時，我們稱之為東南部，或者既然你已經完成了整合，你已經有了自己的土地，那麼是否有任何額外的成本？對額外費用成本的想法，但不是說您已經站穩腳跟了？

No.

不。

I think, you'll see the full run rate reflected in 4Q in terms of the saves that we highlighted for CapStar, just to remind you, those are around $30 million annually.

我認為，您會看到第四季度反映的完整運行率，即我們為 CapStar 強調的節省額，只是提醒您，每年約為 3000 萬美元。

And we expect that that will be fully realized in the fourth quarter.

我們預計這將在第四季度完全實現。

I think if anything, we're looking to invest in that I know that's a great market.

我認為，如果有的話，我們正在尋求投資，我知道這是一個很棒的市場。

And I don't know if Mark would add or Jim.

我不知道馬克或吉姆是否會補充。

I would just say I spend a lot of time down there.

我只想說我在那裡度過了很多時間。

It seems like, I'm down there a few times a month and it's unique and our core legacy midwestern markets, oftentimes we're a part of the economic engines that are making those, communities successful.

看起來，我每個月都會去那裡幾次，它是獨一無二的，我們的核心傳統中西部市場，通常我們是使這些社區成功的經濟引擎的一部分。

And down in Nashville and Tennessee broadly, really, you just have to be there, there's just plenty of organic growth opportunities for us and we need to be in a position to take advantage of that.

在納許維爾和田納西州，實際上，你只需要在那裡，我們就有大量的有機成長機會，我們需要能夠利用這個機會。

And so as John said, I think we'll continue to invest there.

正如約翰所說，我認為我們將繼續在那裡投資。

It's unlike any other part of our franchise where the economic growth is still incredibly strong.

它與我們特許經營的任何其他部分不同，那裡的經濟成長仍然非常強勁。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thanks guys.

謝謝你們。

Thanks, Ben.

謝謝，本。

Terry McEvoy, Stephens.

崔麥克沃伊、史蒂芬斯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning everyone.

大家早安。

Maybe John, let's start with a question for you.

也許約翰，讓我們先問你一個問題。

Did the $400 million guide for NII in the fourth quarter.

第四季 NII 的指導金額為 4 億美元。

Does that assume $13 million of accretion?

這是否假設增加了 1300 萬美元？

And then how are you thinking about the deposit beta over the next several quarters?

那麼您如何看待未來幾季的存款貝塔值？

I know in the slide, you said 30% total deposit beta by the end of this year.

我知道在投影片中，您說過今年底前存款總額將達到 30%。

But what's your insight beyond the end of 2024?

但您對 2024 年底後的情況有何看法？

Yes.

是的。

So the accretion piece, yeah, roughly stable.

所以吸積塊，是的，大致穩定。

So you've got the right number there for 4Q in terms of beta.

因此，就 Beta 而言，第四季的數據是正確的。

I think 30% probably allows us still some room to play offense and we've been unapologetic about that.

我認為 30% 可能會讓我們還有一些進攻的空間，我們對此並沒有道歉。

We're on our front foot with respect to client acquisition and we really want to continue to fund organically our loan growth.

我們在客戶獲取方面處於領先地位，我們真的希望繼續為我們的貸款成長提供有機資金。

I think where we'll get the most beta and we've been saying this for a couple of quarters now and it's playing out exactly as we had expected is really in that exception price book.

我認為我們將在哪裡獲得最多的測試版，我們已經這麼說了幾個季度了，而且它的表現完全符合我們的預期，確實在例外價格手冊中。

And there we expect to see roughly 85% down beta.

我們預計 Beta 值會下降約 85%。

And we've been able to move that very quickly.

我們已經能夠非常迅速地採取行動。

In fact, when the Fed moved 50 basis points, Mike Lloyd and team had program A and program B. One was ready to go for 25 basis points; one was ready to go for 50 basis points.

事實上，當聯準會升息 50 個基點時，麥克‧勞埃德 (Mike Lloyd) 和團隊制定了 A 計畫和 B 計畫。其中之一已準備好升息50個基點。

When we got 50 basis points, they pressed the button and that went in that afternoon.

當我們得到 50 個基點時，他們按下了按鈕，那天下午就發生了。

And so, we're ready to move very, very quickly and we'll remain agile.

因此，我們準備非常非常快地採取行動，並且我們將保持敏捷。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then as a follow up, could you discuss any common themes among the increase in nonaccrual loans?

作為後續行動，您能否討論一下非應計貸款增加中的任何共同主題？

I think there was four specific borrowers as well as the increase in classified loans and anything to do with the recent [Share National Credit Exam] that showed up in third quarter results.

我認為有四個特定借款人以及分類貸款的增加以及與第三季度結果中顯示的最近的[分享國家信用考試]有關的任何事情。

Yeah, I take those in reverse Terry.

是的，我把這些反過來看，特里。

It's Mark.

是馬克。

Given the environment, we moved to a more conservative posture in our risk framework this year which drove that negative migration overall.

鑑於這種環境，我們今年在風險框架中採取了更保守的態度，這推動了整體的負遷移。

We're now looking at our primary source of repayment debt service coverage almost exclusively in our risk ratings.

我們現在正在研究我們的主要償還債務來源，幾乎完全在我們的風險評級中。

And so, as you know, as borrowers have absorbed a full year of the 500 basis point increase in rates coverage ratios have tightened, particularly in CRE.

因此，如您所知，隨著借款人吸收了全年 500 個基點的成長，利率覆蓋率已經收緊，尤其是商業房地產。

We still feel good about secondary sources of repayment, guarantors and collateral.

我們仍然對二次還款來源、擔保人和抵押品感到滿意。

So, but these sources no longer factor into our risk ratings.

所以，但這些來源不再考慮到我們的風險評級。

But they obviously influence loss content, which we still believe is generally low across our special mention and substandard loans.

但它們顯然會影響損失內容，我們仍然認為，我們的關注類貸款和次級貸款的損失內容普遍較低。

Specifically that are not accrual, there were four larger credits.

具體來說，這不是應計的，有四個較大的積分。

When I say larger, you got to think about that, relatively speaking, larger for us.

當我說更大時，你必須考慮一下，相對而言，對我們來說更大。

Those four credits were all in the $12 million to $25 million range.

這四筆信貸金額均在 1,200 萬至 2,500 萬美元之間。

So each one is a manageable level, each was on our radar screen before they moved into nonaccrual.

因此，每一項都是可管理的水平，每一項在進入非應計利息之前都在我們的雷達螢幕上。

And again, it's just reflective of our granular portfolio, I think.

再說一次，我認為這只是反映了我們精細的投資組合。

One was a downgrade from the [Snake exam], CNI credit out of the CapStar portfolio.

其中之一是 [Snake 考試] 的降級，CNI 信用被從 CapStar 投資組合中剔除。

The other three were different segments of CRE so no trend, no geography, just unique issues to each individual credit.

其他三個是商業房地產的不同部分，因此沒有趨勢，沒有地域，只有每個信用點的獨特問題。

And again, I'll just say like most of our nonperforming book, I think there's decent underlying value in the real estate and demand for those properties.

再說一次，我只想說，就像我們大多數表現不佳的書一樣，我認為房地產和對這些房產的需求有不錯的潛在價值。

So even though our [now accruals] are up, our charge off guidance hasn't moved, we think in Q4, we'll still be in that 20 to 25 basis points.

因此，儘管我們的[現在應計項目]增加了，但我們的沖銷指導沒有變化，我們認為在第四季度，我們仍將處於 20 到 25 個基點。

Thanks, Mark and thanks for taking my questions.

謝謝馬克，也謝謝你回答我的問題。

Thanks, Terry.

謝謝，特里。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

賈里德·肖，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, maybe just looking at the guide for fee income.

是的，也許只是看一下費用收入指南。

It sort of looks like it's implying an $8 million decline firsts, third quarter.

看起來這似乎意味著第三季將減少 800 萬美元。

Anything specifically driving that or is that just a little bit of seasonality?

有什麼具體因素推動了這個趨勢，還是只是一點季節性因素？

And how should we be thinking about sort of the jumping off point as we look next year on fee income?

當我們展望明年的費用收入時，我們該如何考慮某種起點？

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Jared.

嘿，賈里德。

Yeah, it was, I think a little bit seasonality in some of the lines that are subject to that right.

是的，我認為一些受該權利限制的產品線有點季節性。

Mortgage will probably be a little bit softer in the fourth quarter.

第四季抵押貸款可能會稍微疲軟。

Capital markets had a really strong 3Q.

資本市場第三季表現非常強勁。

I don't know that I would necessarily count on that one run rating and then in other, there was a couple of little things that kind of broke our way in 3Q that I don't know, are necessarily run ratable.

我不知道我是否一定會依賴這一運行評級，然後在其他方面，有一些小事情在第三季度打破了我們的方式，我不知道，是否一定可以運行評級。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

And then how should we be thinking about your thoughts and view on capital build here?

那我們該如何思考您對資本建構的想法和看法呢？

It certainly seems like we're going to continue to see capital building, especially CET1, plenty of capital for the organic growth side.

當然，我們似乎將繼續看到資本建設，尤其是 CET1，為有機成長提供充足的資本。

Is there an opportunity to supplement that with buybacks or any other capital actions?

是否有機會透過回購或任何其他資本行動來補充？

Yeah.

是的。

So 11% CET1, we're starting to -- and we're going to rebuild capital very quickly, left unchecked.

所以 11% CET1，我們開始 - 我們將非常迅速地重建資本，不加限制。

We'll, tack on 100 basis points plus minus a year on that ratio.

我們將在該比率基礎上增加 100 個基點加上減去一年。

So I think as we get into next year, certainly there's an opportunity to kind of think about [buyback], we're a little bit sensitive to earnback on that.

所以我認為，當我們進入明年時，當然有機會考慮[回購]，我們對此有點敏感。

And every quarter we kind of talk about dividend with the Board.

每季我們都會與董事會討論股利問題。

Okay, thanks,

好的，謝謝，

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Jim or John, positive operating leverage, you talk about a lot and you talked about your low [50%] efficiency ratio.

吉姆或約翰，積極的營運槓桿，你談論了很多，並且談論了你的低[50%]效率比。

How do we think about just the cadence of those with the forward curve and You know, the investments in the growth, any material change as we get into '25?

我們如何考慮那些具有遠期曲線的節奏，你知道，對成長的投資，當我們進入 25 世紀時發生的任何重大變化？

No, I think we just keep running the playbook and to the extent that, we have the ability -- we're obviously sensitive to our expenses and we know ultimately some of that expense base is inside our control.

不，我認為我們只是繼續執行劇本，在某種程度上，我們有能力——我們顯然對我們的支出很敏感，而且我們知道最終部分支出基礎在我們的控制範圍內。

As you know, though, Chris, we've really been trying to manage for the long term here and we going to continue to invest in ourselves both from a risk management governance perspective, but also from a offensive relationship management perspective.

不過，正如你所知，克里斯，我們確實一直在努力進行長期管理，我們將繼續從風險管理治理的角度和進攻性關係管理的角度進行自我投資。

And we're going to continue to make those type of investments.

我們將繼續進行此類投資。

But I am sensitive to revenue growth to help offset any of those investments we make and sometimes the investments we make.

但我對收入成長很敏感，以幫助抵消我們所做的任何投資，有時甚至是我們所做的投資。

As we talked about some of the fee income businesses, the returns are a little bit longer than maybe some of the other businesses like the balance sheet, but we've done a pretty good job of managing those trade-offs and I expect us to continue to make those same types of calls in '25.

當我們談論一些費用收入業務時，回報可能比資產負債表等其他一些業務要長一些，但我們在管理這些權衡方面做得很好，我希望我們能夠25 年繼續撥打相同類型的電話。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

Any use of capital related to your fee income initiatives and even a deal in the next year?

是否使用與您的費用收入計劃甚至明年的交易相關的資本？

No.

不。

Yeah, I don't see anything coming to the future that's material of any nature.

是的，我不認為未來會出現任何物質性的東西。

But, again, we just know that that's an area of as I think about treasure management, wealth management.

但是，我們再次知道，這是我所認為的財富管理、財富管理的一個領域。

We have the right to win and clearly mortgages is mortgage and that there's been some volatility around that and we like the production we're at today and hopefully it will continue to grow.

我們有權利獲勝，顯然抵押貸款就是抵押貸款，這方面存在一些波動，我們喜歡今天的產量，希望它能繼續成長。

But I think it's at a reflection point around the 6% kind of 30-year rate.

但我認為目前正處於 30 年期 6% 左右的反射點。

But those two other businesses, treasury and wealth are ones that we have the right to win; we have some long term gains.

但另外兩項業務，即資金和財富，是我們有權贏得的；我們有一些長期收益。

We have high expectations around the growth of those businesses and we're going to continue to build in those businesses specifically.

我們對這些業務的成長抱有很高的期望，我們將繼續專門發展這些業務。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

David Long. Raymond James.

大衛朗.雷蒙德詹姆斯.

Thanks, good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家早安。

As you're talking about the positive operating leverage and that being a goal, how does that revenue growth impact?

當您談論積極的營運槓桿並將其作為目標時，收入成長有何影響？

How quickly you may invest in, say Tennessee where you see some great growth opportunities?

比方說田納西州，您看到一些巨大的成長機會，您會以多快的速度進行投資？

Do you need to have positive offering leverage or can you if revenue growth maybe doesn't come in, are you still going to put the dollars forward in that market?

您是否需要擁有積極的產品槓桿，或者如果收入可能沒有成長，您是否仍會在該市場投入資金？

Yeah, I think that's an area we got to continue to invest in.

是的，我認為這是我們必須繼續投資的領域。

That is again, like I said earlier, the growth dynamics, there are unlike any other part of our franchise where we -- we have low share, obviously, but there's high growth and other parts of our market we have low share and maybe the growth in total is not as high.

這又是，就像我之前所說的那樣，成長動力與我們特許經營的任何其他部分不同，顯然我們的份額很低，但成長很高，而我們市場的其他部分我們的份額很低，也許整體成長沒有那麼高。

So I think we'll prioritize investments in that newer part of market franchise.

因此，我認為我們將優先投資市場特許經營的較新部分。

And I would say continue in some of our expansion markets as well.

我想說的是，我們還要繼續拓展一些市場。

Those are going to be key continued investments.

這些將是關鍵的持續投資。

And I would rather give up a little bit of the expense side for kind of longer term growth.

為了長期成長，我寧願放棄一點費用。

And I think we've been able to kind of navigate those trade-offs on a pretty adept basis and continue to deliver earnings and return profile that you all expect.

我認為我們已經能夠在相當熟練的基礎上進行這些權衡，並繼續提供大家期望的收益和回報。

Yeah, thanks Jim.

是的，謝謝吉姆。

And then my second question is related to loan growth and as far as customer demand what do you think are the biggest candles out there in the marketplace to increase commercial customer loan demand?

我的第二個問題與貸款成長有關，就客戶需求而言，您認為市場上增加商業客戶貸款需求的最大蠟燭是什麼？

Yeah, Dave, it's Mark.

是的，戴夫，我是馬克。

I think just removal of uncertainty, right?

我認為只是消除不確定性，對嗎？

As the soft landing is becoming a little bit more coming clear into focus, I guess people I think are the cautiousness that we've seen is starting to abate a little bit.

隨著軟著陸變得越來越清晰，我想我們所看到的人們的謹慎態度開始減弱。

And then people just kind of hang on the election stuff.

然後人們就緊緊抓住選舉的事情。

And they want to get past the election.

他們想透過選舉。

So they just talk a lot about that and not that they're frozen, but I think it's making people a little more hesitant.

所以他們只是談論了很多，並不是說他們被凍結了，但我認為這讓人們更加猶豫了。

So I think once we get a little more clarity on those two issues.

所以我認為一旦我們對這兩個問題有了更清晰的認識。

That said, you're starting to see activity and people refinance things out in the CRE markets.

也就是說，你開始看到商業房地產市場上的活動和人們的再融資。

You're seeing longer term lenders take things out at pretty aggressive rate.

你會看到長期貸款人以相當激進的利率取出貸款。

So you're starting to see -- there's a sources out there and demand needs to catch up a little bit.

所以你開始看到——有一個來源，需求需要跟上一點。

David, I would add Mark and Jim have done an excellent job kind of leading us through this different environment since the spring of '23.

大衛，我想補充一點，自 23 年春天以來，馬克和吉姆在帶領我們度過這個不同的環境方面做得非常出色。

And our expectations have definitely risen in terms of what we want full relationships, deposit growth.

在我們想要的全面關係、存款成長方面，我們的期望肯定有所提高。

So I think that client selection has played really important part of maybe a little bit slower quarter for the third quarter that we see in the back half of the year, the first half of the year.

因此，我認為客戶選擇在第三季的放緩中發揮了非常重要的作用，我們在今年下半年和上半年看到了這一點。

But that was quite intentional.

但這是故意的。

We want to ensure that we hit our hurdle rates in terms of the economic pricing and that we bring a full relationship to the table and we're much less willing to bet that it will come and we want to make sure it's there up front.

我們希望確保我們在經濟定價方面達到我們的門檻，並且我們將完整的關係擺到桌面上，我們不太願意打賭它會到來，我們希望確保它預先存在。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

I appreciate the insight.

我很欣賞這種洞察力。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

喬恩‧阿夫斯特羅姆 (Jon Arfstrom)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Just a quick follow up on that.

只是對此進行快速跟進。

Is it more competitive?

是不是更有競爭力？

Do you think you're talking about risk adjusted returns on lending?

您認為您在談論貸款的風險調整回報嗎？

But is it more competitive?

但它更有競爭力嗎？

Is that what's driving your intentional comment or is it something else?

這是你有意發表評論的原因還是其他原因？

Hey, Jon, this is Jim Sander.

嘿，喬恩，這是吉姆·桑德。

No, I think we're starting to see the competitive pressures just picking up a little bit over the last quarter.

不，我認為我們開始看到上個季度的競爭壓力略有增加。

So, we're still fighting and we have the right to win in all the spaces that we do business in because of our relationship.

因此，我們仍在戰鬥，並且由於我們的關係，我們有權在我們開展業務的所有領域獲勝。

So, but it's picking up both on the lending side and the deposit gathering side.

所以，但貸款方和存款方的情況都在好轉。

So again, I like Our chances, we like our chances to win and we're doing just that.

再說一遍，我喜歡我們的機會，我們喜歡獲勝的機會，我們正在這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you on that.

謝謝你。

John, maybe for you on the -- I like that exception pricing chart, the one on slide 7 and then 22 as well.

約翰，也許對你來說——我喜歡那個例外定價表，第 7 張幻燈片上的那個，然後是第 22 張幻燈片上的那個。

But how quickly is that gap closing and would you say the reasons for the initial exception pricing or are have faded quickly or maybe you're no longer there?

但這種差距縮小的速度有多快？

I think, we can close the gap and look clearly we've sort of crested here on both total deposits and the exception book.

我認為，我們可以縮小差距，並清楚地看到我們在總存款和例外帳簿上都已達到頂峰。

But again, Jon, I mean, we're going to stay on offense.

但是，喬恩，我的意思是，我們將繼續進攻。

I mean, we, if somebody else is out there flashing a 50% down beta, I view that as Old National's opportunity.

我的意思是，如果其他人推出了 50% 的下調測試版，我認為這是 Old National 的機會。

I think we're very much interested in continuing to have deposits keep pace with our loan generation.

我認為我們非常有興趣繼續讓存款與貸款保持同步。

And so we're still putting on good spread, right?

所以我們仍然保持良好的傳播，對嗎？

And as long as that's the case, we'll stay on offense on deposits.

只要這種情況發生，我們就會在存款問題上繼續進攻。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

And then last one on credit again, maybe hard to answer this.

然後又是最後一張賒賬，也許很難回答這個問題。

But when I look at the delinquency and nonperforming trends, I think they're still obviously manageable but what's the signal you want to send us?

但當我看到拖欠和不良趨勢時，我認為它們顯然仍然是可控的，但您想向我們發出什麼信號？

Are you expecting the growth to flatten out to continue to go up a little bit over time or are you seeing some of this stuff start to crest as you look forward?

您是否預計增長會隨著時間的推移而趨於平緩並繼續略有上升，或者您在展望未來時是否看到其中一些東西開始達到頂峰？

Thanks

謝謝

Jon.

喬恩.

It's Mark.

是馬克。

I'll start with the delinquencies that bumped a little bit this quarter based on the CapStar conversion.

我將從本季根據 CapStar 轉換略有增加的拖欠率開始。

It really administrative issues.

這確實是行政問題。

So that I think is a non-event honestly and I think that'll come back, it's still at a decent level now and it will come back down in Q4.

因此，老實說，我認為這不是一件大事，我認為這會回來，現在仍處於不錯的水平，並將在第四季度回落。

Relative to further risk rating migration, I mean, we could still see some, I mean, it's possible.

相對於進一步的風險評級遷移，我的意思是，我們仍然可以看到一些，我的意思是，這是可能的。

But I think our potential problems are well known and closely monitored and so while we could still see some downgrades, I think there's a lot of things that will mitigate the downgrade activity.

但我認為我們的潛在問題是眾所周知的，並且受到密切監控，因此，雖然我們仍然可能會看到一些評級下調，但我認為有很多事情可以減輕降級活動。

Frankly, our conservative and proactive approach in identifying them early, this expectations for a soft landing which we're starting to see manifest itself already in some upgrades as well, interest rate cuts and just our aggressive efforts to reduce that book.

坦白說，我們在儘早識別這些問題方面採取了保守和積極的態度，這種對軟著陸的預期已經開始在一些升級、降息以及我們為減少賬簿而採取的積極努力中得到體現。

So again, we could see some but I think we'll manage it well.

再說一遍，我們可能會看到一些，但我認為我們會處理得很好。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just sort of a top level strategic question, Jim as you build capital so quickly, just hoping to get any updated thoughts on how M&A might fit into the picture.

吉姆，這只是一個頂級策略問題，因為您如此快速地累積資本，只是希望獲得有關併購如何融入其中的最新想法。

Last quarter, I recall getting the impression that deals were not high on the list of preferences.

上個季度，我記得得到的印像是，交易在偏好清單中並不高。

But if you look ahead, would the preference be to stay on the path of increasing tangible book value or would we look to deploy some of that into any acquisitions?

但如果你展望未來，我們會優先選擇繼續增加有形帳面價值，還是會考慮將其中的一部分部署到任何收購中？

Yeah, I think what we've said is, any future M&A opportunities really have a high hurdle.

是的，我認為我們說過的是，任何未來的併購機會確實都有很高的障礙。

And as we try to convey, we've got plenty of organic growth opportunities today that we just need to execute on.

正如我們試圖傳達的那樣，我們今天擁有大量的有機成長機會，我們只需要執行這些機會。

However to the extent that there are opportunities that come along and exceed those very high hurdles we have in place, I think all of our shareholders will want us to look at those things opportunistically.

然而，只要有機會出現並超越我們所設定的非常高的障礙，我認為我們所有的股東都會希望我們機會主義地看待這些事情。

But at the end of the day, we are very focused on long term shareholder value creation and anything we look at has to meet those pretty high hurdles we put in place.

但歸根結底，我們非常注重長期股東價值的創造，我們所關注的任何事情都必須滿足我們設置的相當高的障礙。

Perfect.

完美的。

Okay, good.

好的，很好。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you for the question, Scott.

謝謝你的提問，斯科特。

And there are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I'd like to turn the call back to Jim Ryan for closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給吉姆·瑞安 (Jim Ryan)，讓其致閉幕詞。

Well, we appreciate your participation and as usual, the team will be around all day to follow up with any questions.

好的，我們感謝您的參與，像往常一樣，我們的團隊將全天為您解答任何問題。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Old National's call.

女士們、先生們，老國民號的呼籲到此結束。

Once again, a replay along with the presentation slides will be available for 12 months on the investor relations page of Old National's website, oldnational.com.

Old National 網站 oldnational.com 的投資者關係頁面將再次提供為期 12 個月的重播和簡報幻燈片。

A replay of the call will also be available by dialing 800-770-2030, access code 158-66-00.

您也可以撥打 800-770-2030（接入碼 158-66-00）重播電話會議。

This replay will be available through November 5.

該重播將持續到 11 月 5 日。

If anyone has additional questions, please contact Lynell Durchholz at 812-464-1366.

如果有人還有其他問題，請聯絡 Lynell Durchholz，電話：812-464-1366。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。