宏盟集團 (OMC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Omnicom Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加宏盟 2023 年第三季財報發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

At this time, I'd like to introduce you to your host for today's conference, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Gregory Lundberg.

現在，我想向您介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁格雷戈里·倫德伯格（Gregory Lundberg）。

Thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 earnings call. With me today are John Wren, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Phil Angelastro, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長約翰‧雷恩 (John Wren)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Phil Angelastro。

On our website, omnicomgroup.com, we've posted a press release along with the presentation covering the information we'll review today as well as a webcast of this call. An archived version will be available when today's call concludes.

在我們的網站omnicomgroup.com 上，我們發布了一份新聞稿以及涵蓋我們今天將回顧的資訊的簡報以及本次電話會議的網路廣播。當今天的電話會議結束時，將提供存檔版本。

Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone to read the forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial and other information that we've included at the end of our investor presentation. Certain of the statements made today may constitute forward-looking statements, and these statements are our present expectations. Relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are listed in our earnings materials and in our SEC filings, including our 2022 Form 10-K.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家閱讀我們在投資者簡報末尾提供的前瞻性聲明以及非公認會計準則財務和其他資訊。今天發表的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明，這些聲明是我們目前的預期。我們的收益資料和 SEC 文件（包括 2022 年 10-K 表格）中列出了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的相關因素。

During the course of today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these to the nearest comparable GAAP measures in the presentation.

在今天的電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則措施。您可以在簡報中找到這些指標與最接近的可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

We will begin the call with an overview of our business from John, then Phil will review our financial results for the quarter. And after our prepared remarks, we will open the line up for your questions.

我們將首先由約翰概述我們的業務，然後菲爾將審查我們本季的財務表現。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開始提問。

I'll now hand the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter results.

謝謝你，格雷格。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們，了解我們的第三季業績。

Before we discuss the quarter, I want to touch on something that is top of mind for many of us. The horrific attacks on Israel and the subsequent war have been devastating to witness. We've seen a complete lack of humanity displayed, and that hate has no place in this world. We morn the innocent lives lost, and our thoughts remain with all those personally impacted.

在我們討論本季之前，我想談談我們許多人最關心的事情。對以色列的可怕襲擊和隨後的戰爭是毀滅性的。我們看到了人性的完全缺乏，仇恨在這個世界上沒有立足之地。我們對無辜生命的逝去深感悲痛，我們的思念仍然與所有受到影響的人同在。

Turning to our results. Organic growth was 3.3% for the quarter, which is in line with our expectations. Operating income margin was 15.7%. And diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $1.86, up 5.1% versus the comparable period in 2022. Our results for the quarter keep us on pace to maintain our full year organic growth target of 3.5% to 5% and our operating margin target of 15% to 15.4%. Phil will cover our results in more detail during his remarks.

轉向我們的結果。該季度有機成長率為 3.3%，符合我們的預期。營業利益率為15.7%。本季攤薄後每股收益為 1.86 美元，與 2022 年同期相比增長 5.1%。本季的業績使我們能夠繼續保持 3.5% 至 5% 的全年有機增長目標和 2022 年營業利潤率目標15%至15.4%。菲爾將在演講中更詳細地介紹我們的結果。

Our cash flow continues to support our primary uses of cash, dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases, and our liquidity and our balance sheet remain very strong. During the quarter, we continued to make solid progress on our key strategic priorities to position Omnicom for sustainable and profitable long-term growth.

我們的現金流繼續支持我們對現金、股息、收購和股票回購的主要用途，我們的流動性和資產負債表仍然非常強勁。本季度，我們繼續在關鍵戰略優先事項上取得紮實進展，使宏盟實現可持續和盈利的長期成長。

Starting on the talent front, we made several key leadership changes as part of our succession planning. Alex Lubar was named Global CEO of DDB Worldwide. Alex served as the Global President and Chief Operating Officer of DDB and succeeds Marty O'Halloran, who will become Chairman. In addition, Glenn Lomas, currently CEO of DDB EMEA, has been elevated to Global President and Chief Operating Officer, in partnership with Alex. Nancy Reyes is moving from her post as CEO of TBWA New York to become CEO of the Americas at BBDO. Nancy succeeds St. John Walsh, who has been with BBDO for 27 years. Guy Marks, previously Omnicom Media Group's CEO of EMEA was named the CEO of PHD worldwide. Guy succeeds Philippa Brown, who is leaving the media industry after nearly 4 decades. Dan Clays, who led Omnicom's Media Group U.K. as CEO, will fill the CEO of OMG EMEA's position.

從人才方面開始，作為繼任計畫的一部分，我們進行了幾項關鍵的領導層變動。 Alex Lubar 被任命為 DDB Worldwide 全球執行長。 Alex 擔任 DDB 全球總裁兼營運官，並接替 Marty O'Halloran，後者將成為董事長。此外，DDB EMEA 現任執行長 Glenn Lomas 已與 Alex 合作晉升為全球總裁兼營運長。南希·雷耶斯 (Nancy Reyes) 將從 TBWA 紐約執行長一職轉任 BBDO 美洲區執行長。 Nancy 接替 St. John Walsh，後者已在 BBDO 工作了 27 年。前 Omnicom Media Group 歐洲、中東和非洲地區執行長 Guy Marks 被任命為 PHD 全球執行長。蓋伊接替了菲利帕布朗 (Philippa Brown)，後者在媒體行業工作了近 4 年後即將離開。曾擔任 Omnicom 英國媒體集團執行長的 Dan Clays 將擔任 OMG EMEA 執行長。

I want to congratulate Alex, Glenn, Nancy, Guy and Dan and extend my gratitude to Marty, St. John and Philippa for their many years of service to Omnicom. This series of announcements is a testament to our emphasis on succession planning and ensuring our networks and practice areas have the right teams to lead them into the future.

我要祝賀 Alex、Glenn、Nancy、Guy 和 Dan，並向 Marty、St. John 和 Philippa 表示感謝，感謝他們多年來為 Omnicom 提供的服務。這一系列公告證明了我們對繼任計畫的重視，並確保我們的網路和實踐領域擁有合適的團隊來帶領他們走向未來。

During the quarter, we continued building our generative AI capabilities with the rollout of Omni Assist, our proprietary version of ChatGPT that enhances every test within Omni. Omni Assist is just one example of how we are improving our capabilities and efficiency through generative AI. We continue assessing how generative AI will affect the way we work across the organization and preparing ourselves for the future.

本季度，我們透過推出 Omni Assist 繼續建立生成式 AI 功能，Omni Assist 是我們 ChatGPT 的專有版本，可增強 Omni 內的每項測試。 Omni Assist 只是我們如何透過產生式人工智慧提高能力和效率的範例之一。我們將繼續評估生成式人工智慧將如何影響我們整個組織的工作方式，並為未來做好準備。

We've broadened our capabilities through strategic acquisitions in high-growth areas in the quarter. In July, Omnicom Media Group acquired Outpromo and Global Shopper, 2 of Brazil's leading connected commerce and retail media agencies. These acquisitions create a dedicated end-to-end e-commerce and retail media performance agency in the Brazilian market for Omnicom Media Group.

本季我們透過在高成長領域的策略性收購擴大了我們的能力。 7 月，宏盟媒體集團收購了巴西兩家領先的互聯商業和零售媒體機構 Outpromo 和 Global Shopper。這些收購為宏盟媒體集團在巴西市場創建了一個專門的端到端電子商務和零售媒體績效代理商。

OPRG strengthened its services through the acquisition of PLUS Communications, a top public affairs firm; and FP1 strategies, a leading political consultancy. The Beltway based acquisitions further solidified OPRG's leadership position and portfolio in public affairs and crisis communications, particularly into health care and technology.

OPRG 透過收購頂級公共事務公司 PLUS Communications 加強其服務；以及領先的政治顧問公司 FP1 策略。基於環城公路的收購進一步鞏固了 OPRG 在公共事務和危機傳播領域的領導地位和投資組合，特別是在醫療保健和技術領域。

We recently announced the formation of Omnicom Advertising Services India, comprised of Omnicom's creative agencies located in India, BBDO, DDB and TBWA. Omnicom Advertising Services will be able to offer the best creative capabilities and talent for our clients across the group. The formation of Omnicom Advertising Services India follows the launch of our global delivery services and centers of excellence in India, which we announced earlier this year.

我們最近宣布成立 Omnicom Advertising Services India，由 Omnicom 位於印度的創意機構 BBDO、DDB 和 TBWA 組成。宏盟廣告服務將能夠為整個集團的客戶提供最好的創意能力和人才。今年早些時候，我們宣佈在印度推出全球交付服務和卓越中心，隨後成立了 Omnicom Advertising Services India。

Today, we have over 4,000 people in global centers of excellence in 4 major cities, supporting our clients and agencies around the world. We are rapidly scaling the operations and expect to triple the size over the next 24 to 36 months. Our centers of excellence are helping our company transform from within, improving our client offerings and providing operating efficiencies.

如今，我們在 4 個主要城市的全球卓越中心擁有 4,000 多名員工，為世界各地的客戶和代理商提供支援。我們正在迅速擴大營運規模，預計在未來 24 至 36 個月內將規模擴大兩倍。我們的卓越中心正在幫助我們的公司從內部轉型，改善我們的客戶服務並提高營運效率。

While we position Omnicom for the long term, we're driving growth through significant new business wins. Some of these wins this quarter include: Omnicom Media Group won the global media business for Uber and HSBC; Beiersdorf selected OMD as its media agency of record for Europe and North America; on the creative front, adam&eveDDB picked up Amazon's creative business in Europe; Omnicom Health Group and our advertising collective also continued to grow their relationship with Novartis, expanding in oncology and winning significantly in pharma, including their renal portfolio; finally, TBWA was awarded the creative duties for Telstra, Australia's largest mobile network.

雖然我們對 Omnicom 進行長期定位，但我們正在透過重大的新業務勝利來推動成長。本季取得的一些勝利包括： 宏盟媒體集團為 Uber 和匯豐銀行贏得了全球媒體業務；拜爾斯道夫選擇 OMD 作為其歐洲和北美地區的記錄媒體代理商；在創意方面，adam&eveDDB接手了亞馬遜在歐洲的創意業務；宏盟健康集團和我們的廣告集體也繼續發展與諾華的關係，擴大腫瘤學領域，並在製藥領域取得重大勝利，包括他們的腎臟產品組合；最終，TBWA 獲得了澳洲最大行動網路 Telstra 的創意任務。

Overall, we are pleased with our financial results and our progress on our key strategic initiatives. While we remain optimistic entering the fourth quarter, as in past years, our performance in the fourth quarter will be impacted by the amount of year-end project spend that our clients execute and their agencies are successfully capturing. We continue to plan cautiously given the uncertainties in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, including higher interest rates, oil prices, instability due to the wars in Ukraine and Israel, and the continuing risk of a recession in the United States.

總體而言，我們對我們的財務表現和關鍵策略舉措的進展感到滿意。雖然我們對進入第四季度保持樂觀態度，但與過去幾年一樣，我們第四季度的業績將受到我們的客戶執行的年終專案支出金額及其代理機構成功捕獲的影響。鑑於宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境的不確定性，包括利率、油價上漲、烏克蘭和以色列戰爭造成的不穩定以及美國持續的經濟衰退風險，我們繼續謹慎規劃。

I will now turn the call over to Phil for a closer look at our financial results. Phil?

我現在將把電話轉給菲爾，以便更仔細地了解我們的財務表現。菲爾？

Thanks, John. As John said, our business is solid, despite the challenges of the current macroeconomic environment. Before we open the call up for questions and answers, let's go through our third quarter results in more detail, starting with the summary income statement for the second quarter on Slide 3.

謝謝，約翰。正如約翰所說，儘管當前宏觀經濟環境面臨挑戰，但我們的業務依然穩健。在我們開始問答之前，讓我們更詳細地了解第三季的業績，從投影片 3 上的第二季損益表摘要開始。

Reported revenue increased by 3.9% and organic growth was 3.3%. Reported operating income increased by 2.7% to $560.8 million, and the related margin was 15.7%. Net interest expense was $38.3 million for the quarter, an increase of $9.2 million compared to the third quarter of 2022, due in part to lower interest income on cash and short-term investments. In Q4, we expect that, compared to the prior year, net interest expense will experience a similar increase.

報告營收成長 3.9%，有機成長 3.3%。報告營業收入成長 2.7%，達到 5.608 億美元，相關利潤率為 15.7%。本季淨利息支出為 3,830 萬美元，較 2022 年第三季增加 920 萬美元，部分原因是現金和短期投資的利息收入減少。在第四季度，我們預計，與前一年相比，淨利息支出將出現類似的成長。

Our reported income tax rate was 26%. This is lower than our 27% estimate from July due to a reduction in tax expense resulting from the vesting of share-based compensation. For the fourth quarter, we estimate our tax rate will be 27%.

我們報告的所得稅率為 26%。這低於我們 7 月預測的 27%，因為股權激勵的歸屬導致稅收費用減少。對於第四季度，我們預計稅率為 27%。

Reported net income in Q3 increased by 2%, and diluted earnings per share was up 5.1% driven by both higher net income and by lower shares outstanding, resulting from share repurchases.

第三季報告的淨利潤增加了 2%，稀釋後每股收益成長了 5.1%，這得益於淨利潤的增加和股票回購導致的流通股減少。

Let's turn to revenue on Slide 4. As mentioned, organic growth in the third quarter was 3.3%. The impact from foreign currency translation reversed course in the third quarter, increasing reported revenue by 1.7%. If rates stay where they are currently, we estimate the impact of foreign currency translation will be a benefit of approximately 0.5% for Q4 and a reduction of approximately 0.5% for the year.

讓我們轉向投影片 4 上的收入。如前所述，第三季的有機成長率為 3.3%。外幣換算的影響在第三季扭轉了局面，報告收入增加了 1.7%。如果利率維持在目前水平，我們估計外幣換算的影響將是第四季約 0.5% 的收益，以及全年約 0.5% 的減少。

The impact of acquisition and disposition revenue was negative 1.1%, primarily reflecting the sale in Q2 of our research businesses. We expect a reduction of 75 basis points for the fourth quarter and expect that the recent acquisitions will result in an increase in reported acquisition and disposition revenue next year.

收購和處置收入的影響為負 1.1%，主要反映了我們第二季研究業務的出售。我們預計第四季將減少 75 個基點，並預計最近的收購將導致明年報告的收購和處置收入增加。

As John discussed, our organic growth outlook for the year remains unchanged at 3.5% with a stretch target of 5%, which still factors in some uncertainty about the level of year-end incremental marketing spend and project work that we expect our agencies will be successfully capturing in the fourth quarter.

正如約翰所討論的，我們今年的有機成長前景保持在3.5% 不變，延伸目標為5%，這仍然對我們預計我們的機構將在年底增量行銷支出和專案工作的水平帶來一些不確定性。第四節成功攻克。

Now let's turn to Slide 5 to review our organic revenue growth by discipline. During the quarter, Advertising & Media posted 6.1% growth, its strongest this year, driven by continued strength in our media business globally. Precision Marketing grew 4.3%, a solid performance given the comparison to the 16.2% growth it experienced in Q3 of '22 and the challenging backdrop of certain of their technology and telecom clients that we discussed last quarter.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 5，按學科回顧我們的自然收入成長。本季度，在我們全球媒體業務持續強勁的推動下，廣告與媒體業務實現了 6.1% 的成長，為今年以來最強勁的成長。 Precision Marketing 成長了 4.3%，與 22 年第三季 16.2% 的成長相比，以及我們上季度討論的某些技術和電信客戶面臨的挑戰，該公司的業績表現穩健。

Commerce & Brandon declined by 1.7% driven by reductions at our shopper marketing agencies. Experiential grew 9.2% led by Asia, Europe and the U.K., which offset negative growth in the U.S. and the Middle East. Execution & Support declined 3.6% due primarily to declines in our merchandising business.

由於購物者行銷機構的裁員，Commerce & Brandon 的股價下跌了 1.7%。以亞洲、歐洲和英國為首的體驗式成長了 9.2%，抵消了美國和中東的負成長。執行和支援下降 3.6%，主要是由於我們的銷售業務下降。

Public Relations was down 5.5%, reflecting difficult comps against the 12.6% growth we delivered in Q3 of 2022. Approximately half of the reduction relates to less revenue connected to the 2022 election cycle, and the balance was due to the slowing of project spend in the quarter. We expect a similar headwind related to a reduction in revenue in Q4 compared to the benefit from the election cycle in Q4 of 2022. Finally, Healthcare grew 3.8% with good momentum at several large clients.

公共關係業務下降5.5%，反映出與我們在2022 年第三季度實現的12.6% 增長相比，比較困難。減少的大約一半與2022 年選舉週期相關的收入減少有關，其餘部分是由於2022 年項目支出放緩所致。該季度。與 2022 年第四季選舉週期的收益相比，我們預計第四季度營收減少也會出現類似的阻力。最後，醫療保健業務成長 3.8%，幾個大客戶勢頭良好。

Turning to Slide 6. We saw growth across our larger regions, offset by a decline in Canada as well as a decline in the Middle East and Africa, which grew by 12.2% in Q3 of 2022, caused in part by the cyclicality in Experiential.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們看到較大地區的增長，但被加拿大的下滑以及中東和非洲的下滑所抵消，後者在 2022 年第三季度增長了 12.2%，部分原因是體驗的周期性。

Looking at the year-to-date revenue by industry sector on Slide 7. Compared to the third quarter of last year, we had higher relative weights in 2 of our larger categories, food and beverage and automotive and, as expected, a lower relative weight in technology and a reduction, although smaller, in telecom.

在幻燈片7 上查看按​​行業部門劃分的今年迄今為止的收入。與去年第三季度相比，我們在食品和飲料以及汽車這兩個較大類別中的相對權重較高，並且正如預期的那樣，相對權重較低技術方面的權重以及電信方面的減少（儘管幅度較小）。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 where you can see good progress on our expenses year-over-year. Salary and related service costs were down as a percentage of revenue year-over-year driven by our repositioning actions and through changes in our global employee mix. Third-party service costs increased in connection with growth in our revenues. These costs include third-party supplier costs when we act as principal in providing services to our clients. They are an integral part of our service offering to our clients, and we generate profit on them. Third-party incidental costs increased due to an increase in client-related travel and incidental out-of-pocket costs that have bill declines directly at our cost at no profit.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 8，您可以在其中看到我們的支出逐年取得良好進展。由於我們的重新定位行動和全球員工結構的變化，薪資和相關服務成本佔收入的百分比比去年同期下降。第三方服務成本隨著我們收入的成長而增加。當我們作為委託人向客戶提供服務時，這些成本包括第三方供應商的成本。它們是我們為客戶提供的服務不可或缺的一部分，我們從中獲利。由於與客戶相關的旅行和附帶自付費用的增加，第三方附帶成本增加，這些費用直接由我們承擔，沒有利潤。

Occupancy and other costs were helped by reductions in our real estate portfolio in the first quarter of 2023. Reductions in rent expense were offset partially by an increase in operating expenses from higher levels of in-office work globally. SG&A expenses were up a bit, primarily due to higher professional fees related to the acquisitions we recently completed.

2023 年第一季我們房地產投資組合的減少有助於入住率和其他成本的提高。租金費用的減少被全球辦公室工作水平提高導致的營運費用的增加部分抵消。 SG&A 費用略有增加，主要是由於與我們最近完成的收購相關的專業費用較高。

Turning to Slide 9. Operating income in Q3 was up 2.7% on a reported basis, and the related margin was 15.7%, down slightly as expected from 15.9% in the third quarter of 2022. For the full year, we remain comfortable with the expected operating margin range of between 15% and 15.4%.

轉向投影片 9。據報告，第三季營業收入成長 2.7%，相關利潤率為 15.7%，略低於預期，較 2022 年第三季的 15.9% 略低。對於全年而言，我們對預計營業利益率範圍在15%至15.4%之間。

On a 9-month year-to-date non-GAAP adjusted basis, as presented here on Slide 9, operating income margin was 14.8% compared to 14.9% in 2022. Our EBITDA margin in Q3 was 16.2%, also down slightly from 16.4% in the third quarter of 2022. On a 9-month year-to-date non-GAAP adjusted basis, our EBITDA margin was 15.3% compared to 15.5% in 2022.

如投影片9 所示，在年初至今9 個月的非GAAP 調整基礎上，營業利潤率為14.8%，而2022 年為14.9%。我們第三季的EBITDA 利潤率為16.2%，也略低於16.4% 2022 年第三季的 %。在年初至今的 9 個月非 GAAP 調整基礎上，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.3%，而 2022 年為 15.5%。

Slide 10 is our cash flow performance for the first 9 months of the year. We define free cash flow as net cash provided by operating activities, excluding changes in working capital. Free cash flow for the third quarter of 2023 was $1.3 billion, an increase of 9.4% from last year. We continue to expect changes in working capital to be close to flat for the year as it usually is.

幻燈片 10 是我們今年前 9 個月的現金流表現。我們將自由現金流定義為經營活動提供的淨現金，不包括營運資本的變動。 2023年第三季自由現金流13億美元，較去年成長9.4%。我們仍然預計今年營運資金的變化將與往常一樣接近持平。

Regarding our uses of cash, we used $424 million of cash to pay dividends to common shareholders and another $47 million for dividends to noncontrolling interest shareholders. Our capital expenditures were $64 million, similar to last year. Total acquisition payments were $202 million. And our stock repurchase activity, net of proceeds from stock plans, was $530 million year-to-date. Most of this took place in the first half of the year.

關於我們的現金使用，我們使用 4.24 億美元現金向普通股股東支付股息，另外 4,700 萬美元現金用於向非控股股東支付股息。我們的資本支出為 6,400 萬美元，與去年相似。收購付款總額為 2.02 億美元。年初至今，我們的股票回購活動（扣除股票計畫收益）為 5.3 億美元。其中大部分發生在今年上半年。

Slide 11 is a summary of our credit, liquidity and debt maturities. At the end of the third quarter of 2023, the book value of our outstanding debt was $5.6 billion. There were no changes in outstanding balances during the quarter other than foreign exchange translations. Our $2.5 billion revolving credit facility, which backstops our $2 billion U.S. commercial paper program, remains undrawn. And our cash equivalents and short-term investments were $2.8 billion. Our next debt maturity is not until November of 2024.

投影片 11 總結了我們的信用、流動性和債務期限。截至 2023 年第三季末，我們未償債務的帳面價值為 56 億美元。除外匯換算外，本季未清餘額沒有變動。我們的 25 億美元循環信貸額度尚未動用，該額度為 20 億美元的美國商業票據計劃提供支持。我們的現金等價物和短期投資為 28 億美元。我們的下一次債務到期要到 2024 年 11 月。

Slide 12 presents our historical returns on two important performance metrics for the 12 months ended September 30, 2023. Omnicom's return on invested capital was 23%, and return on equity was 47%. These metrics continue to be an excellent indicator of our conservative capital structure and the health of our business.

投影片 12 展示了截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的 12 個月內兩個重要績效指標的歷史回報。宏盟的投資資本回報率為 23%，股本回報率為 47%。這些指標仍然是我們保守的資本結構和業務健康狀況的絕佳指標。

In closing, despite a challenging macro environment, we're pleased with our financial results and our year-to-date organic growth of 4%. We believe we are positioned very well for strong growth in the future when the caution on the macro environment clears.

最後，儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，我們對我們的財務表現和年初至今 4% 的有機成長感到滿意。我們相信，當對宏觀環境的謹慎態度消除時，我們已經為未來的強勁成長做好了充分準備。

Operator, please open the lines up for questions and answers. Thank you.

接線員，請打開提問和解答隊列。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的本傑明·斯溫伯恩（Benjamin Swinburne）。

John, I guess I'll ask you the standard fourth quarter question around the macro and just trying to parse your words a little bit and understanding whether you're feeling that the caution that you guys referenced today has increased from earlier this year. Obviously, there's a lot of things happening in the world that would necessarily explain that. But I'm just wondering if you could add a little more color on how clients are feeling about Q4 and looking into next year.

約翰，我想我會問你關於宏觀的標準第四季度問題，只是試著稍微解析一下你的話，了解你是否覺得你們今天提到的謹慎態度比今年早些時候有所增加。顯然，世界上發生的許多事情都足以解釋這一點。但我只是想知道您是否可以就客戶對第四季度的感受以及對明年的展望添加更多色彩。

And then I'll just ask my follow-up, maybe for Phil, if Phil wants to take it. Is it fair to call the tech sector a clear and sort of different headwind to sort of the overall business for Omnicom? I noticed, I think year-to-date, that vertical was down 300 basis points year-to-year. It's been a big theme across the industry sort of the year of efficiency. I'm just wondering if you think that's a fair way to think about what we're seeing in the business in 2023.

然後我會問我的後續行動，也許是菲爾，如果菲爾願意接受的話。將科技業稱為對 Omnicom 整體業務而言明顯且不同的逆風是否公平？我注意到，今年迄今為止，垂直產業比去年同期下降了 300 個基點。這是效率年整個產業的一個大主題。我只是想知道您是否認為這是一個公平的方式來思考我們在 2023 年的業務中所看到的情況。

I do believe -- I can probably go back 21 years where, at this point in the year, I'm saying it's very similar, if not the same thing. A very large part of the project work that occurs, which adds to our growth or doesn't provide our growth, comes from project spend and clients doing things that they've hesitated to do or pushed back throughout the year. At this point, it's not a lot different than in past years in that we won't have clarity until probably Thanksgiving or thereabouts.

我確實相信——我可能可以追溯到 21 年前，在這一年的這個時候，我說這是非常相似的，即使不是同一件事。所發生的專案工作的很大一部分，無論是促進我們的成長還是不促進我們的成長，都來自於專案支出和客戶做他們全年猶豫不決或推遲的事情。在這一點上，這與過去幾年沒有太大不同，因為我們可能要到感恩節或附近才能清楚。

And you're correct in what you said, there seems to be a lot more going on as we're entering this quarter, as we're going through it. We were already facing Hollywood strike; the auto strike, although that doesn't really impact us as much as it may others; and now what's going on in the Middle East, and Ukraine continues as well. So none of these are great signs. And it depends on what the headlines are in the newspapers every day, which dictate some of the spend that occurs or doesn't occur.

您所說的是正確的，隨著我們進入本季度，隨著我們正在經歷它，似乎還會發生更多事情。我們已經面臨好萊塢的罷工；汽車罷工，儘管這對我們的影響並不像其他人那麼大；現在中東正在發生的事情，烏克蘭也持續著。所以這些都不是好兆頭。這取決於每天報紙上的頭條新聞，這決定了一些發生或不發生的支出。

So our people are very experienced at this. In those 20-plus years, we've only had 2 years where a significant part of the spend didn't actually come through. And both of those were around recessions in the 2008 and 2001 time frames. The rest of the times, it's eked out. Although some years, you feel a little bit more confident about it because there aren't all these macroeconomic and geopolitical issues occurring.

所以我們的員工在這方面非常有經驗。在這 20 多年裡，我們只有兩年的時間大部分支出沒有真正到位。這兩起事件都發生在 2008 年和 2001 年的經濟衰退時期。其餘的時間，都是勉強維持。儘管有些年了，你對此會感到更有信心，因為並沒有發生所有這些宏觀經濟和地緣政治問題。

So we're -- having said that, and you're certainly aware of it, as I look past the quarter and pass this project work to next year, with all the new business wins we've recently had and some of the signals that we're getting, I'm very confident -- I'll say, confident -- about our performance for '24 because I think we have the right products and we certainly have expanded who our clients are. So some of those wins that I announced, we will not enjoy really any revenue in the fourth quarter. That revenue principally start January 1, but it's a good tailwind to have.

所以我們——話雖這麼說，你肯定也知道這一點，因為我回顧了這個季度，並將這個項目工作轉移到明年，我們最近獲得了所有新的業務勝利，並發出了一些信號我對我們24 年的表現非常有信心——我會說，有信心——因為我認為我們擁有合適的產品，而且我們當然已經擴大了我們的客戶範圍。因此，我宣布的一些勝利，我們在第四季度不會真正獲得任何收入。收入主要從 1 月 1 日開始，但這是一個很好的推動力。

Yes. I'd certainly echo John's comments as far as the Q4 outlook and the very typical process we go through to capture as much of that project spend as we can in the fourth quarter, agency by agency, all across the world.

是的。我當然會同意約翰關於第四季度前景的評論，以及我們在第四季度盡可能多地獲取世界各地各個機構的項目支出所經歷的非常典型的流程。

Regarding your tech question, Ben, I think from our perspective, given relative comps, we don't really see the tech headwinds as significantly different than the broader macro at this point in time, now that we're through 9 months of 2023. Maybe they close out the year not as strong as they did last year as far as spending, but at some point in the near future, we don't see this as a permanent decline. We think they're going to come back and invest in their brands and begin to spend at a higher level at some point in the near future.

關於你的科技問題，Ben，我認為從我們的角度來看，考慮到相對比較，我們並沒有真正認為科技逆風與目前更廣泛的宏觀經濟有顯著不同，因為我們已經度過了2023 年的9 個月。也許他們今年結束時的支出不像去年那麼強勁，但在不久的將來的某個時候，我們並不認為這是永久性的下降。我們認為他們會回來投資自己的品牌，並在不久的將來的某個時候開始更高水平的支出。

Yes. The only point I would add to Phil's comments were is most of that decline is a decline with existing clients. So it's not because of client loss. So as their products get released into the marketplace and they get through whatever problems they've adjusted to during 2023, we're still very confident about this sector.

是的。我對菲爾的評論唯一要補充的一點是，大部分下降是現有客戶的下降。所以這並不是因為客​​戶流失。因此，隨著他們的產品推出市場，並解決 2023 年期間遇到的任何問題，我們仍然對該行業充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的史蒂文·卡霍爾 (Steven Cahall)。

So John, when you think about the trends this year, it seems like tech and telco had been a headwind and maybe the overall macro and geopolitical environment that you talked about have cast some additional uncertainty, more recently. And then I think you have new business and maybe M&A as tailwinds. So heading into next year where a lot of your clients are probably in their budget cycles now, do you feel like it's setting up for a more challenging industry backdrop? Or do you think that those tailwinds you have or the AI investments that you've been making can lead you to have some acceleration as you move into next year? That's the first one.

所以約翰，當你思考今年的趨勢時，科技和電信似乎一直是一股逆風，也許你談到的整體宏觀和地緣政治環境最近帶來了一些額外的不確定性。然後我認為你有新業務，也許還有併購作為順風車。因此，進入明年，您的許多客戶可能正處於預算週期中，您是否覺得這正在為更具挑戰性的行業背景做好準備？或者您認為您所擁有的順風車或您一直在進行的人工智慧投資可以讓您在進入明年時取得一些加速嗎？這是第一個。

And then second, maybe for John or for Phil, I think you last raised the dividend in February 2021. Your dividend then was pretty competitive versus the rate environment. Obviously, the rate environment has changed a lot since then. So when you think about recommendations to the Board about capital allocation, how are you thinking about what the right level of the dividend should be and whether this is an environment that you feel comfortable growing it?

其次，也許對約翰或菲爾來說，我認為你們上次提高股息是在 2021 年 2 月。當時你們的股息相對於利率環境來說相當有競爭力。顯然，自那時以來，利率環境已經發生了很大變化。因此，當您考慮向董事會提出有關資本配置的建議時，您如何考慮正確的股息水準應該是多少，以及這是否是一個您覺得可以輕鬆增加股息的環境？

To answer your first question, we're not quite ready to give you guidance for '24 just yet because our people are out doing a bottoms-up plan, which they won't present to us for another 6 or 7 weeks, and then that gets tweaked throughout the balance of the year. But with the experiences that we've had, with the new business wins that we've enjoyed and the places where we faced headwinds this year, we're set up very well to have a very successful 2024. And that's what I anticipate to see when we actually get that bottoms-up review back from our companies. So I'm confident and I don't see any significant adjustments that we have to make to our portfolio, which, in and of itself, is very flexible, to service those client needs and enjoy the growth that's associated with it.

為了回答你的第一個問題，我們還沒有準備好為你提供24 世紀的指導，因為我們的人正在製定一個自下而上的計劃，他們在接下來的6 到7 週內不會向我們提出該計劃，然後在一年中的剩餘時間都會進行調整。但憑藉我們所擁有的經驗、我們所享受的新業務勝利以及我們今年面臨逆風的地方，我們已經做好了充分準備，將在 2024 年取得非常成功的成績。這就是我的預期看看我們何時真正從我們的公司得到自下而上的審查。因此，我很有信心，而且我認為我們不需要對我們的投資組合進行任何重大調整，因為我們的投資組合本身非常靈活，可以滿足這些客戶的需求並享受與之相關的成長。

Do you want to take the second question? Or I can do the dividend, too.

您想回答第二個問題嗎？或者我也可以分紅。

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

The dividend is really a Board matter, and it will come up in the Board meetings that come between now and, say, February. We'll have more to say as those meetings occur.

股息實際上是董事會的事務，它將在從現在到二月的董事會會議上討論。當這些會議召開時，我們會有更多話要說。

Yes. I wouldn't take it, the fact that we haven't raised the dividend in 2023, as a lack of confidence in the business at all. Given the broader macro, I think we've always approached it, and the Board has always approached it, with a level of conservatism and really continuing to keep the flexibility we have in the capital structure right now given the broader macro. But it's certainly something that's on the agenda, and I would not view it as a function of a lack of confidence in the business at all.

是的。我不認為我們沒有在 2023 年提高股息，因為我們對業務根本缺乏信心。考慮到更廣泛的宏觀經濟，我認為我們一直在接近它，董事會也一直以一定程度的保守態度來接近它，並且在更廣泛的宏觀經濟背景下，確實繼續保持我們目前在資本結構方面的靈活性。但這肯定是提上議程的事情，我根本不認為這是對業務缺乏信心的結果。

And our next question comes from the line of Tim Nollen with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自麥格理的 Tim Nollen。

I'd like to pick up on one actual word that you used in your last comment, John, and that is flexibility. I saw this WFA survey recently talking about clients, I guess, coming up with more reasons why they want their agencies to do more. And I'm sure this is an age-old discussion that you have. But you've done a lot of work to reposition the business, reinvesting in data and technology and things over the years, divested assets. You just ran in your prepared remarks through a number of management changes internally that you've done recently. We saw today WPP just merged a couple of its big agencies. I just wondered, John, if you could maybe expound a little bit on what this WFA report means and how Omnicom feels positioned given that commentary.

約翰，我想提一下您在上一次評論中使用的一個實際詞，那就是靈活性。我最近看到 WFA 的一項調查談論了客戶，我想，他們提出了更多為什麼他們希望他們的機構做得更多的理由。我確信這是一個由來已久的討論。但你已經做了很多工作來重新定位業務，多年來對數據和技術等進行再投資，剝離了資產。您剛剛在準備好的演講中介紹了您最近進行的一系列內部管理變革。今天我們看到 WPP 剛剛合併了幾個大型代理商。約翰，我只是想知道您是否可以稍微解釋一下這份 WFA 報告的含義，以及鑑於該評論，宏盟集團的定位如何。

Sure. I have to admit to not reading the report that you're referring to. But in terms of our portfolio, yes, there's been a significant expansion in our media business, and that is growing. There's been quite a bit of success in that. If you look at the conversions -- I probably said that wrong, report. When you take media wins versus media losses, we continue to come out on top, and I'm confident that, that is going to hold. There's a few opportunities, which we expect to be asked to participate in reviewing which are offensive opportunities where we're not defending existing business other than in some statutory audit reviews.

當然。我必須承認我沒有讀過你提到的這份報告。但就我們的投資組合而言，是的，我們的媒體業務顯著擴張，而且還在成長。這方面已經取得了相當大的成功。如果你看一下轉換——我可能說錯了，報告。當你比較媒體的勝利與媒體的損失時，我們將繼續名列前茅，我相信，這將持續下去。有一些機會，我們希望被要求參與審查，這些機會是進攻性機會，除了一些法定審計審查之外，我們不會捍衛現有業務。

And our CRM business, which grew very strongly and hit a couple of road bumps in the beginning of this year, has come out of it very strong and just won a few very large and significant clients that are going to help us next year. It becomes an increasing part of our portfolio as well. Our PR unit, even though it's suffering a little bit because of the comparables of not being in an election year, next year is an election year, so that same group will be benefited as a result of that.

我們的 CRM 業務成長非常強勁，在今年年初遇到了一些障礙，但現在已經非常強勁，並且剛剛贏得了一些非常大且重要的客戶，這些客戶將在明年為我們提供幫助。它也成為我們產品組合中越來越重要的一部分。我們的公關部門，儘管因為不是選舉年而受到一些影響，但明年是選舉年，因此同一群體將因此受益。

So the portfolio has been tweaked. We've gotten rid of, in a very sensible way, assets in the past. And I think going forward, I don't know if Phil commented on it or not, I think where we were showing net divestitures for probably the last 3 years, we're now with the acquisition activity we had adding to the portfolio. From a net perspective, we're growing those areas, and we're buying into those areas to support our companies where we see the greatest growth.

因此，我們對投資組合進行了調整。我們過去以非常明智的方式擺脫了資產。我認為展望未來，我不知道菲爾是否對此發表了評論，我認為我們可能在過去三年中展示了淨資產剝離，現在我們正在將收購活動添加到投資組合中。從淨角度來看，我們正在發展這些領域，我們正在投資這些領域，以支持我們看到成長最快的公司。

Yes. Great. No, I think that answers it. The survey was basically talking about advertising clients looking for more flexibility and streamlined services from the agencies. It sounds very much like that's what you've been doing. And even your comments today about some of the changes you've made seem to support that.

是的。偉大的。不，我想這就是答案。調查基本上討論的是廣告客戶尋求代理商提供更多靈活性和簡化服務的問題。聽起來很像你一直在做的事情。甚至您今天對所做的一些改變的評論似乎也支持了這一點。

The only thing I would add to that is I get more people back into the offices, which we continue to have success with, but there's still work to do. I think that will further support our growth.

我唯一要補充的是，我讓更多的人回到辦公室，我們在這方面繼續取得成功，但仍有工作要做。我認為這將進一步支持我們的成長。

Collaboration is easier in person.

面對面的合作更容易。

Yes, sir.

是的先生。

And our next question comes from the line of David Karnovsky from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的大衛卡諾夫斯基。

John, we saw the uptick in precision marketing in the quarter. I wanted to see if you could provide more color there. Is that just comps? Or are you starting to see some movement on projects that maybe were paused previously?

約翰，我們看到本季精準行銷有所上升。我想看看你是否可以在那裡提供更多顏色。這只是比較嗎？或者您是否開始看到之前可能暫停的項目出現一些進展？

And then for Phil, on principal costs, it looks like -- or sorry, third-party service costs, it looks like growth accelerated there a touch in the quarter. Can you parse that out between maybe principal trading and other areas like events? And then just with principal trading generally, I don't know how much you're willing to quantify in terms of organic revenue contribution, but maybe you could discuss the business at a high level what the reception is from clients to the offer.

然後，對於菲爾來說，就主要成本而言，看起來——或者抱歉，第三方服務成本，本季的成長似乎有所加速。您能否在主要交易和其他領域（例如事件）之間解析這一點？然後，就一般的主要交易而言，我不知道您願意在有機收入貢獻方面量化多少，但也許您可以在高層討論業務從客戶到報價的接待情況。

Sure. Handling your first question, some of the declines and challenges in the telecommunication and tech sector were probably more impactful to that practice area, in the precision marketing practice area. And as Phil mentioned earlier, we think that -- the good news is we didn't lose clients, we continue to win clients in that area. And we think those companies have gone through their adjustments the latter part of last year and the early part of this year. So we're ascending. This quarter was better than the last, which was probably the toughest comparison we had. And with some of the new business wins that they've had very recently, 2024 sets up to be a very good year.

當然。處理你的第一個問題，電信和科技領域的一些衰退和挑戰可能對精準行銷實踐領域的實踐領域影響更大。正如菲爾之前提到的，我們認為——好消息是我們沒有失去客戶，我們繼續贏得該領域的客戶。我們認為這些公司在去年下半年和今年年初就經歷了調整。所以我們正在上升。本季比上季好，這可能是我們進行的最艱難的比較。隨著他們最近取得的一些新業務勝利，2024 年將是非常好的一年。

I can't really comment on how many projects we're going to get in CRM in the next 90 days. But in terms of the business itself, its leadership and the products that we're offering to our clients, I'm very confident in our performance in that area.

我無法真正評論未來 90 天內我們將在 CRM 中獲得多少項目。但就業務本身、其領導力以及我們為客戶提供的產品而言，我對我們在該領域的表現非常有信心。

Sure. Regarding the second question and third-party service costs, we don't really parse the number in the way that you've suggested. But we had strong growth, as we said in our prepared remarks, in the media business, no question, as well as experiential. Both of those businesses do come with those third-party service costs as part of the business. Certainly, a reference back to Tim's question regarding clients and the flexibility that they're looking for, they're certainly looking for a full suite of products from a media perspective and a wide range of marketing services that they'll avail themselves of. And our service offering can cover all of those things that they're looking for.

當然。關於第二個問題和第三方服務成本，我們並沒有真正按照您建議的方式解析這個數字。但正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，毫無疑問，我們在媒體業務和體驗方面都取得了強勁的成長。這兩項業務確實都包含第三方服務成本作為業務的一部分。當然，回到蒂姆關於客戶和他們所尋求的靈活性的問題，他們肯定會從媒體的角度尋找一整套產品以及他們可以利用的廣泛的營銷服務。我們的服務可以涵蓋他們正在尋找的所有內容。

So some of that growth certainly is in media, experiential, field marketing as well, but we had strong growth through most of our disciplines in the quarter, and we're certainly happy with those results.

因此，其中一些成長肯定是在媒體、體驗、現場行銷方面，但我們在本季的大部分領域都實現了強勁成長，我們對這些結果當然感到滿意。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Nathanson with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Nathanson 和 MoffettNathanson。

I have two for you, John. One is, as you've referenced before, you've had a very strong year in the media business. You've taken a lot of big wins. Can you talk a bit about what's changed for the positioning of that business? What do you think are the factors driving some of these big wins that you've had versus your competitors?

我有兩個給你，約翰。一是，正如您之前提到的，您在媒體業務方面度過了非常強勁的一年。你已經取得了很多重大勝利。您能談談該業務的定位發生了什麼變化嗎？您認為是什麼因素促使您相對於競爭對手取得了這些重大勝利？

And secondly, I have you asked in the past about acquisition opportunities. Given now maybe the fall in kind of the pressures in venture capital land and the higher rates, talk a bit about the pipeline opportunity you see to kind of buy more companies in '24 and then kind of your willingness to do that in '24.

其次，我過去曾問過您有關收購機會的問題。考慮到現在創投土地壓力的下降和利率的上升，請談談您認為在 24 年購買更多公司的管道機會，然後談談您在 24 年這樣做的意願。

Sure. I think the success of the media operation is down, one, to management of that specific operation. We've expanded the suite of services that we make available to clients in the media area. It is, of all of our services, probably one of the most measurable in terms of when we utilize the data and the amount of data that we have, we're able to optimize for the benefit of the client how they spend their money, improve it. So there's a great deal of analytics that are there today that weren't even possible 4 or 5 years ago. And I think -- well, I do know this to be true. We have a reputation of delivering on what we promised when we're pitching for business. And I dare say we have the best reputation in the industry of delivering what we promise. And that has benefited us through this process.

當然。我認為媒體運營的成功取決於，第一，取決於具體運營的管理。我們擴展了向媒體領域的客戶提供的服務套件。在我們所有的服務中，就我們何時利用數據以及我們擁有的數據量而言，它可能是最可衡量的服務之一，我們能夠為了客戶的利益而優化他們如何花錢，改進它。因此，今天有大量的分析在四、五年前甚至是不可能的。我想——嗯，我確實知道這是真的。我們在推銷業務時以兌現承諾而聞名。我敢說，我們在兌現承諾方面享有業界最好的聲譽。這讓我們在這個過程中受益匪淺。

Do you want to comment first on M&A? And then I'll add.

您想先對併購發表評論嗎？然後我補充一下。

Sure. Yes, we've always had -- the M&A pipeline remains very strong for us. We have a team that's constantly looking at opportunities. They have to meet all of our internal criteria. It would have to typically be something that's additive to the portfolio of services that we offer our clients. If it's something that we can build and is expensive, we've steered away from it in the past, and we've been pretty consistent about that in the last -- at least the 26 years that I've been the CEO. But there are opportunities, and some of them are in areas that we've had on our list for a very long period of time that looked more reasonable than they did when the interest rate was 0.

當然。是的，我們一直都有——併購管道對我們來說仍然非常強大。我們擁有一支不斷尋找機會的團隊。他們必須滿足我們所有的內在標準。它通常必須是我們為客戶提供的服務組合的補充。如果它是我們可以建造並且昂貴的東西，我們過去就會避開它，而且在過去——至少在我擔任執行長的 26 年裡，我們在這一點上一直非常一致。但機會是存在的，其中一些是我們在很長一段時間內一直列在清單上的領域，這些領域看起來比利率為 0 時更合理。

Yes. I think that what we've seen certainly is that sellers' expectations have kind of adjusted to the marketplace and to the macro environment that we're dealing with. So strategically, there are some opportunities out there that we've been looking at, some of which we completed in the third quarter, that have been more attractive than they certainly were not that long ago.

是的。我認為我們所看到的肯定是賣家的期望已經根據市場和我們正在處理的宏觀環境進行了調整。因此，從戰略上講，我們一直在尋找一些機會，其中一些我們在第三季度完成，這些機會比不久前更具吸引力。

And the next question comes from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

下一個問題來自克雷格·胡貝爾 (Craig Huber) 和胡貝爾研究合作夥伴 (Huber Research Partners)。

I've got a few questions. I'll maybe just go one at a time to make it easier. Can you just talk a little bit further about the tone of conversations with your clients as they say what their thoughts are on a preliminary basis for 2024, at this stage, maybe versus what the conversations were like roughly 6 months ago?

我有幾個問題。我可能會一次只去一個，這樣會比較容易。您能否進一步談談與您的客戶對話的語氣，因為他們在現階段表達了對 2024 年的初步想法，也許與大約 6 個月前的對話相比？

I think, well, there's still a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace because of all the things we talked about and in previous answers in our prepared remarks. Having said that, clients are pretty sophisticated, and they know that, no matter what the difficulties are, they have to continue to support their brands because if they don't, when the good times return, they'll have a much more difficult time regaining or maintaining their market share.

我認為，由於我們討論的所有事情以及我們準備好的發言中之前的答案，市場仍然存在許多不確定性。話雖如此，客戶還是很老練的，他們知道，無論遇到什麼困難，他們都必須繼續支持他們的品牌，因為如果他們不這樣做，當好時光回來時，他們會遇到更加困難的事情。重新獲得或維持市場佔有率的時間。

So as we look at clients in '24 -- '23 was a tough year for many sectors. That's why we referenced a couple of times earlier the tech sector. I would say, in my opinion, '23 was the first time in the tech sector had to face readjusting its business. And people, earlier in the year, went through massive layoffs and cutbacks of their own staffing, which they hadn't had any experience in their history of even needing to do. It was pure growth prior to this year. That's behind them now. They're a lot more experienced than they once were as we look forward.

因此，當我們觀察 24 年的客戶時，23 年對許多行業來說都是艱難的一年。這就是為什麼我們之前多次提到科技業。我想說，在我看來，23 年是科技業第一次面臨業務調整。今年早些時候，人們經歷了大規模裁員和裁員，他們在歷史上沒有任何需要這樣做的經驗。今年之前是純成長。現在就在他們身後了。正如我們所期待的那樣，他們比以前更有經驗。

So clients aren't -- they know we're not through all the hurdles that exist out there, but they're confident that their brands and their positioning from their companies, they've taken a lot of pain and they're positioned well to go into the future.

所以客戶不是——他們知道我們還沒有克服所有存在的障礙，但他們相信他們的品牌和他們公司的定位，他們經歷了很多痛苦，他們的定位很好地走向未來。

Certainly, a lot's -- it's been an odd year. Certainly, a lot has changed, especially if you compare things to the last 6 months. But as we were going into '23, about a year ago, most of the conversations were about was there a recession coming, was it likely. And I think 12 months ago, it was more likely to happen in the first half, then it changed to more likely to happen in the second half. It's kind of been happening in slow motion. So the recent events in the Middle East certainly have changed things versus 6 months ago. But yes, I would echo John's comments in terms of our view on '24 and client sentiment, they know they need to continue to invest in their brands. And I think that's been proven certainly throughout the cohort period.

當然，很多——這是奇怪的一年。當然，發生了很多變化，尤其是與過去 6 個月進行比較時。但當我們進入 23 世紀，大約一年前，大多數談話都是關於經濟衰退是否即將到來，是否有可能。我認為12個月前，這種情況更有可能發生在上半年，然後變成更有可能發生在下半年。這有點像是慢動作發生的。因此，最近中東發生的事件與 6 個月前相比肯定發生了變化。但是，是的，我會回應約翰關於我們對 '24 和客戶情緒的看法的評論，他們知道他們需要繼續投資於他們的品牌。我認為這在整個隊列期間都得到了證實。

And you can't forget that, if you go back a year, interest rates were quite different for everyone. And sure, there's been a lot of sudden changes as the Fed has increased rates, and it takes people a bit of time to adjust what they're doing to those changing environments. But I think at this point, everyone thinks -- they don't know when it's going to reverse itself, but they're adjusting to the current environment, and they don't think they're facing the same headwind in areas like that going forward. So again, it just adds to the confidence.

你不能忘記，如果你回到一年前，每個人的利率都有很大不同。當然，隨著聯準會升息，出現了許多突然的變化，人們需要一些時間來調整他們正在做的事情以適應這些不斷變化的環境。但我認為在這一點上，每個人都認為——他們不知道事情什麼時候會逆轉，但他們正在適應當前的環境，他們認為在這樣的領域他們不會面臨同樣的逆風向前走。再說一遍，這只會增加信心。

My second question, if I could, on a pricing, apples-to-apples pricing, for your clients, just in aggregate for your company for this year. How do you sort of think about it, your 3.5% to 5% organic growth target for the year, with 5% being a stretch target? How much should we think about that pricing in terms of maybe basis points as adding to that? Is it roughly 100 basis points from pricing on apples-to-apples basis, not just upselling but pricing on apples-to-apples basis, that you're increasing prices in your contracts and stuff? And where that number is roughly for this year, at a 3.5% to 5% target for this year, how does that compare to prior years? I'm trying to get at this because it's obviously a higher inflation environment.

我的第二個問題，我是否可以為您的客戶定價，並為您的公司今年的整體定價。您如何看待今年 3.5% 至 5% 的有機成長目標，其中 5% 是延伸目標？我們應該在多大程度上考慮以基點為基礎的定價？你們在合約和其他東西中提高價格，是不是比同類定價大約有 100 個基點，不僅是追加銷售，而且是同類定價？今年的數字大致為 3.5% 至 5%，與往年相比如何？我試圖解決這個問題，因為這顯然是一個通膨較高的環境。

Sure. I don't think we've recovered completely the inflation that we faced. When you look at this, from Western Europe, U.S. and then emerging markets, inflation has been more severe. We haven't had some pricing flexibility but not to the extent of how fast inflation has risen. Now we're hoping that inflation has stabilized, and we'll start to enjoy the benefits of that.

當然。我認為我們還沒有完全恢復我們所面臨的通貨膨脹。從西歐、美國到新興市場，通膨更加嚴重。我們沒有一定的定價彈性，但還沒有達到通膨上升速度的程度。現在我們希望通膨已經穩定下來，我們將開始享受其中的好處。

The other thing which impacts our business is actually an account the day you win it, the next 90 days is probably the least profitable time that you'll have that account because you're ramping up staff and you're changing organizations in order to accommodate and not drop any balls as the business has passed from one of our competitors to us. So that has some kind -- that has an impact not on unit pricing but on the overall costs that we face as we adjust and staff up for these events. More precise than that, I can't really be. I don't have any hard data which supports specific areas in the company.

影響我們業務的另一件事實際上是您贏得帳戶的那一天，接下來的 90 天可能是您擁有該帳戶的利潤最低的時間，因為您正在增加員工並正在改變組織，以便當業務從我們的競爭對手之一轉移到我們時，要適應並且不要掉任何球。因此，這對我們在調整和為這些活動配備人員時所面臨的總體成本產生了某種影響，而不是對單位定價產生影響。比這更準確的，我真的不能。我沒有任何支援公司特定領域的硬數據。

One of the reasons, though, that we've been able to expand our base in offshore and nearshore markets for more of the functions that we have to fulfill in order to complete our job, we've gotten better at that. We've grown the staff from -- we've doubled it in this past year. And I think in my comments we've said that we expect that to grow 2 to 3x over the next 24 months because we have the infrastructure now to accommodate that growth. That gives us a bit of relief on the inflation that we haven't been able to pass on to our clients, so by doing things differently.

不過，我們能夠擴大在離岸和近岸市場的基地的原因之一是為了完成我們的工作，我們必須履行更多的職能，我們在這方面做得更好。在過去的一年裡，我們的員工人數增加了一倍。我認為在我的評論中我們已經說過，我們預計未來 24 個月內將增長 2 到 3 倍，因為我們現在擁有適應這種增長的基礎設施。這讓我們對通膨有所緩解，而我們無法將這種通膨轉嫁給客戶，因此我們採取了不同的做法。

And my final question, if I could, just because everybody has questions on this project-related work in the fourth quarter. Historically, maybe the range is $200 million to $250 million in the fourth quarter. I'm curious, embedded in your 3.5% to 5% organic growth number for the year target, what are you guys assuming for project-related work in the fourth quarter versus the year-ago number? Is that roughly flat, on the bottom end of your 3.5% to 5% number? How should we think about that?

我的最後一個問題，如果可以的話，只是因為每個人對第四季度這個專案相關的工作都有疑問。從歷史上看，第四季的範圍可能是 2 億至 2.5 億美元。我很好奇，在你們今年 3.5% 到 5% 的有機成長目標中，你們對第四季專案相關工作與去年同期相比有何假設？ 3.5% 至 5% 的數字底部是否大致持平？我們該如何思考這個問題？

We don't really have a number, Craig. I think certainly, every one of our businesses has some expectations regarding project work in the fourth quarter. The key for us is, when we meet with them, ensuring they're not keeping staff on hand hoping to get new business as we head into the fourth quarter and then the cost structure is out of whack with their expected revenues. They need to have some historical analysis, and we've got plenty of that in order for our agencies to have certain amounts of project spend in their forecast.

我們真的沒有一個數字，克雷格。我想當然，我們每個企業都對第四季的專案工作有一些期望。對我們來說，關鍵是，當我們與他們會面時，確保他們不會讓員工在我們進入第四季度時希望獲得新業務，然後成本結構與他們的預期收入不相符。他們需要進行一些歷史分析，我們已經有足夠的歷史分析，以便我們的機構在預測中能夠有一定數量的專案支出。

But typically, they're incentivized to benefit from capturing that year-end project spend. And our clients, by and large, want to spend the rest of their budget and grow their businesses through the end of the year. So those factors typically help us and help our clients to get to the point where we can capture a significant amount of that spend. But we don't have a hard and fast number. Blank percent of the $200 million to $250 million is in the forecast, but certainly, some of it in the forecast. But we're pretty conservative about how much our agencies can put in their forecasts because the last thing we want is people to be hiring ahead of the revenue or keeping people around that don't necessarily have anything to do if the revenue doesn't come through. That's a pretty consistent practice we followed for quite some time.

但通常情況下，他們會受到激勵，從年終專案支出中獲益。總的來說，我們的客戶希望在年底前用完剩餘的預算並發展業務。因此，這些因素通常會幫助我們並幫助我們的客戶達到我們能夠獲得大量支出的程度。但我們沒有一個硬性且快速的數字。 2 億至 2.5 億美元中的空白百分比是在預測中的，但當然，其中有一部分是在預測中的。但我們對我們的機構可以在預測中投入多少持相當保守的態度，因為我們最不希望的就是人們在收入之前就開始招聘，或者如果收入沒有增加，就留住那些不一定有任何事可做的人。通過。這是我們相當長一段時間以來一直遵循的做法。

And with that, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconferencing service. You may now disconnect.

我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與並使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連線。