宏盟集團 (OMC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Omnicom First Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). At this time, I'd like to introduce you to your host for today's conference, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Gregory Lundberg. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎來到 Omnicom 2023 年第一季度收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）。現在，我想向您介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁 Gregory Lundberg。請繼續。

Thank you for joining our first quarter 2023 earnings call. With me today are John Wren, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Phil Angelastro, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. On our website, omnicomgroup.com, we posted a press release along with the presentation covering the information we'll review today as well as a webcast of this call. An archived version will be available when today's call concludes.

感謝您加入我們 2023 年第一季度的財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官 John Wren；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Phil Angelastro。在我們的網站 omnicomgroup.com 上，我們發布了一份新聞稿以及涵蓋我們今天要審查的信息的演示文稿以及本次電話會議的網絡廣播。今天的電話會議結束後，將提供存檔版本。

Before we start, I would like to remind everyone to read the forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial and other information that we've included at the end of our investor presentation. Certain of the statements made today may constitute forward-looking statements, and these statements represent our present expectations. Relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are listed in our earnings materials and in our SEC filings, including our 2022 Form 10-K.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家閱讀我們在投資者介紹結束時包含的前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務及其他信息。今天發表的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明，這些聲明代表了我們目前的預期。可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的相關因素列在我們的收益材料和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括我們的 2022 年 10-K 表格。

During the course of today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of these to the nearest comparable GAAP measures in the presentation materials. We will begin the call with an overview of our business from John, then Phil will review our financial results for the quarter. After our prepared remarks, we will open the line for your questions. I'll now hand the call over to John.

在今天的電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非 GAAP 措施。您可以在演示材料中找到這些與最接近的可比 GAAP 措施的調節。我們將以 John 對我們業務的概述開始電話會議，然後 Phil 將審查我們本季度的財務業績。在我們準備好的評論之後，我們將打開您的問題熱線。我現在將電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. We are pleased to share our first quarter results. As we discussed on our last call, we entered 2023, extremely confident in our strategic and financial position. I'm pleased to report that for the first 3 months of the year, we met our internal revenue and margin targets. Organic growth in the first quarter was 5.2%. Our growth was broad-based across disciplines, geographic regions and client sectors.

謝謝你，格雷格。大家下午好，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們很高興分享我們的第一季度業績。正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣，我們進入了 2023 年，對我們的戰略和財務狀況充滿信心。我很高興地報告，今年前 3 個月，我們實現了內部收入和利潤率目標。第一季度的有機增長率為 5.2%。我們的增長基礎廣泛，跨越學科、地理區域和客戶部門。

Advertising and media, Precision Marketing and Public Relations were the largest contributors in the quarter. Adjusted operating profit margin for the quarter was 13.5%. Non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share was $1.56, up 12.2% versus non-GAAP adjusted EPS for Q1 2022. Our cash flow and balance sheet remain very strong and support our primary uses of free cash flow, dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases.

廣告和媒體、精準營銷和公共關係是本季度最大的貢獻者。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 13.5%。非 GAAP 調整後每股收益為 1.56 美元，比 2022 年第一季度非 GAAP 調整後每股收益增長 12.2%。我們的現金流和資產負債表仍然非常強勁，支持我們對自由現金流、股息、收購和股票回購的主要用途。

We're pleased with our results for the quarter and remain on track to achieve our full year targets of 3% to 5% organic growth and 15% to 15.4% operating margin. Strategically, we continue to invest in our creative leadership with TBWA's recent acquisition of Dark Horses, a London-based award-winning sports marketing agency. Dark Horses operates in a high-growth area and works with a strong roster of global clients and influential sports organizations.

我們對本季度的業績感到滿意，並有望實現 3% 至 5% 的有機增長和 15% 至 15.4% 的營業利潤率的全年目標。在戰略上，我們通過 TBWA 最近收購了總部位於倫敦的屢獲殊榮的體育營銷機構 Dark Horses，繼續投資於我們的創意領導力。 Dark Horses 在高增長地區開展業務，並與眾多全球客戶和有影響力的體育組織合作。

While creativity remains a core part of our culture and organization, we continue to be recognized for our integrated suite of services across Precision Marketing, data, e-commerce and other disciplines. Most recently, our capabilities were highlighted by Ad Age who named us their 2023 Holding Company of the Year. The publication noted that while still creative, Omnicom is a data-driven powerhouse, enabling marketers to transform their businesses using capabilities in e-commerce, consumer experience management, CRM and more.

雖然創造力仍然是我們文化和組織的核心部分，但我們繼續以我們跨精準營銷、數據、電子商務和其他學科的綜合服務套件而受到認可。最近，Ad Age 強調了我們的能力，他們將我們評為 2023 年度控股公司。該出版物指出，儘管 Omnicom 仍然富有創造力，但它是一個數據驅動的強者，使營銷人員能夠利用電子商務、消費者體驗管理、CRM 等方面的能力來轉變他們的業務。

Our ability to deliver increasingly specialized integrated services, enables us to expand the work we do for our clients and remain a trusted adviser to them. In fact, in 2022, 100 of our largest clients were served on average by more than 50 of our agencies across different disciplines and geographies. As we move ahead, we continue to look for ways to strengthen our portfolio through acquisitions and investments in high-growth areas such as Precision Marketing, health care, e-commerce, media and PR as well as in our core creative services.

我們提供日益專業化的綜合服務的能力使我們能夠擴大我們為客戶所做的工作，並繼續成為他們值得信賴的顧問。事實上，到 2022 年，我們在不同領域和地區的 50 多家機構平均為 100 家最大的客戶提供服務。在我們前進的過程中，我們繼續尋找方法，通過在精準營銷、醫療保健、電子商務、媒體和公關等高增長領域以及我們的核心創意服務領域的收購和投資來加強我們的產品組合。

I'd like to now turn to how we are approaching the new way our people work, which has resulted in changes in our real estate. We created a plan that underlies our belief that our physical offices play a critical role in maintaining culture, inspiring creativity and innovation and promoting professional development. Our approach also recognizes that providing flexibility creates benefits for the health and well-being of our people.

我現在想談談我們如何採用新的員工工作方式，這導致我們的不動產發生變化。我們制定了一項計劃，以鞏固我們的信念，即我們的實體辦公室在維護文化、激發創造力和創新以及促進專業發展方面發揮著關鍵作用。我們的方法還認識到，提供靈活性可以為我們人民的健康和福祉帶來好處。

With this in mind, we recently announced we are requiring our people to work in our offices a minimum 3 days a week. In practice, many of our agencies are already at or well ahead of this requirement. Many are working a full week in the office. Based on this plan, during the quarter, we made a decision to exit over 1.6 million square feet of office space around the world. Since 2018, we reduced our office footprint by 35%, while our employee headcount has increased by approximately 4,000.

考慮到這一點，我們最近宣布我們要求我們的員工每周至少在辦公室工作 3 天。在實踐中，我們的許多機構已經達到或遠遠超過了這一要求。許多人在辦公室工作了整整一周。根據這個計劃，在本季度，我們決定退出全球超過 160 萬平方英尺的辦公空間。自 2018 年以來，我們的辦公室佔地面積減少了 35%，而我們的員工人數增加了約 4,000 人。

We are also experimenting with different approaches to make it easier for our people to return to the office. One example is in the New York metro area, where we are opening 3 satellite offices in Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey. We are also opening new Omnicom campuses in 3 cities in India. Chennai, Gurgaon and Hyderabad as the number of employees in India continues to grow at a significant pace. Phil will cover the financial impact of our real estate actions during his remarks.

我們還在嘗試不同的方法，讓我們的員工更容易返回辦公室。一個例子是在紐約都會區，我們在長島、康涅狄格州和新澤西州開設了 3 個衛星辦事處。我們還在印度的 3 個城市開設了新的 Omnicom 園區。 Chennai、Gurgaon 和 Hyderabad 在印度的員工人數繼續以顯著的速度增長。 Phil 將在他的講話中介紹我們的房地產行動的財務影響。

Going forward, we continue to invest in new modern workplaces that provides the type of environments most effective for collaboration and in-office work. We are also rapidly charting a path of how we use new technologies for the future of work. In the area of generative AI through our large-scale relationship with Microsoft, we have established a dedicated Azure environment with secure enterprise access to the latest OpenAI GPT model.

展望未來，我們將繼續投資於新的現代工作場所，為協作和辦公室工作提供最有效的環境類型。我們還在迅速規劃一條道路，說明我們如何將新技術用於未來的工作。通過我們與微軟的大規模合作關係，在生成人工智能領域，我們建立了專用的 Azure 環境，企業可以安全地訪問最新的 OpenAI GPT 模型。

This unique setup is allowing us to responsibly develop new custom and version control models against various use cases within Omni as well as supporting overall automation and transformation efforts. The development includes careful consideration related to all aspects of generative from confidentiality to intellectual property rights, privacy, biases and ethics.

這種獨特的設置使我們能夠針對 Omni 中的各種用例負責任地開發新的自定義和版本控制模型，並支持整體自動化和轉型工作。開發包括與從機密到知識產權、隱私、偏見和道德的生成的所有方面相關的仔細考慮。

In conclusion, we are pleased with how the year has started and remain on track to meet the targets we've set for the year. At the same time, we remain cautious as to how inflation, interest rates, the war in Ukraine, increasing tensions in the Middle East and the recent banking and credit events in the United States could impact the economy and our operations.

總而言之，我們對這一年的開端感到滿意，並繼續按計劃實現我們為今年設定的目標。與此同時，我們對通貨膨脹、利率、烏克蘭戰爭、中東緊張局勢加劇以及美國最近的銀行和信貸事件如何影響經濟和我們的運營保持謹慎。

Many of these risks have been evident for quite some time, and we have developed plans to appropriately respond to any potential headwinds and minimize the effect on our financial performance. I will now turn the call over to Phil for a closer look at the financials. Phil?

其中許多風險在相當長一段時間內就已經很明顯了，我們已經制定了適當應對任何潛在不利因素的計劃，並將對我們財務業績的影響降到最低。我現在將把電話轉給 Phil，以便更仔細地了解財務狀況。菲爾？

Thanks, John. 2023 is off to a solid start in what remains an uncertain year. All of our disciplines and geographies grew organically in the first quarter, and we continue to invest in our operations and took strategic steps to reduce our real estate footprint. And we continued our balanced capital allocation, dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases.

謝謝，約翰。 2023 年在充滿不確定性的一年中有了一個堅實的開端。我們所有的學科和地域在第一季度都實現了有機增長，我們繼續投資於我們的運營，並採取戰略措施來減少我們的房地產足跡。我們繼續平衡資本配置、股息、收購和股票回購。

Let's begin with a high-level review of the quarter on Slide 3. As John mentioned, the transition to a flexible working environment with a hybrid model, which allows for partial remote work has resulted in changes to our real estate strategy, and we made the decision to exit certain leases and reduce our office space. While there will be some investments we will be making in existing and new locations, the net impact over time will result in lower rent and occupancy costs.

讓我們從幻燈片 3 中對本季度的高級別回顧開始。正如 John 所提到的，向具有混合模式的靈活工作環境的過渡（允許部分遠程工作）導致我們的房地產戰略發生變化，我們做出了決定退出某些租約並減少我們的辦公空間。雖然我們將在現有地點和新地點進行一些投資，但隨著時間的推移，淨影響將導致租金和入住成本降低。

In the first quarter of 2023, we took a charge of $119 million related to this reduction in our office lease portfolio. The charge is primarily related to the noncash impairment of a portion of our operating lease right-of-use assets and the write-off of the net book value of leasehold improvements at the affected locations. As a result, rent and occupancy expense will be reduced in the future, and substantially all of the charges will be paid out of the remaining lease terms over the next few years.

在 2023 年第一季度，我們因辦公室租賃組合的減少而收取了 1.19 億美元的費用。該費用主要與我們部分經營租賃使用權資產的非現金減值以及受影響地點租賃資產改善賬面淨值的註銷有關。因此，未來的租金和占用費用將減少，並且大部分費用將在未來幾年的剩餘租賃期限內支付。

This slide shows our reported results followed by certain adjustments, which make the periods comparable and the resulting non-GAAP adjusted amounts for both periods. In addition to the real estate charge I just discussed for 2023, operating expenses in the first quarter of 2022 include a $113 million charge arising from the effects of the war in Ukraine.

這張幻燈片顯示了我們報告的結果，然後進行了某些調整，這使得兩個時期具有可比性，以及由此產生的兩個時期的非 GAAP 調整數額。除了我剛剛討論的 2023 年的房地產費用外，2022 年第一季度的運營費用還包括因烏克蘭戰爭的影響而產生的 1.13 億美元費用。

In summary, reported revenues were up 1% and non-GAAP adjusted operating income was flat. Both were negatively impacted by foreign currency translations. Moving down the income statement. Net interest expense improved due to higher interest income than we expected. In Q2, we estimate that interest expense will increase a bit, primarily due to an increase in the interest rate applied to our pension and post-retirement obligations.

總之，報告的收入增長了 1%，非 GAAP 調整後的營業收入持平。兩者都受到外幣換算的負面影響。向下移動損益表。由於利息收入高於我們的預期，淨利息支出有所改善。在第二季度，我們估計利息支出會略有增加，這主要是由於適用於我們的養老金和退休後義務的利率上升。

This will be offset by an expected increase in interest income in Q2 of 2023 relative to Q2 of 2022. Although we do not expect as much interest income in Q2 of '23 as we had in Q1 of '23 due to our working capital cycle, the second half of 2023, we expect that net interest expense will be flat to up slightly relative to the second half of 2022. In Q1 of 2023, the effective tax rate was somewhat lower than our annual guidance of 27% due to a lower effective tax rate related to the real estate repositioning charge and the realization of certain tax benefits and NOLs.

這將被 2023 年第二季度相對於 2022 年第二季度的利息收入預期增加所抵消。儘管由於我們的營運資金周期，我們預計 23 年第二季度的利息收入不會像 23 年第一季度那樣多， 2023 年下半年，我們預計淨利息支出將與 2022 年下半年持平或略有上升。2023 年第一季度，由於較低的有效稅率，實際稅率略低於我們 27% 的年度指引與房地產重新定位費用相關的稅率以及某些稅收優惠和 NOL 的實現。

We still expect a tax rate of 27% for the balance of the year, as indicated on our February 2023 call. Non-GAAP adjusted net income increased 9%. As a result of share repurchases, our diluted share count declined by 2.5%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was up 12.2% on an adjusted basis. Without the headwind from negative foreign currency translation, non-GAAP diluted EPS for the quarter increased by approximately 16%.

正如我們在 2023 年 2 月的電話會議上指出的那樣，我們仍然預計今年剩餘時間的稅率為 27%。非 GAAP 調整後淨收入增長 9%。由於股票回購，我們的稀釋後股份數量下降了 2.5%，非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益在調整後增長了 12.2%。如果沒有負面外幣換算的不利影響，本季度非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益增長約 16%。

Now let's review the quarter in more detail, beginning with the components of our revenue change on Slide 4. Our organic growth was 5.2%. The impact from foreign currency translation was negative and reduced reported revenue by 3.2%, which once again was a bit less than the preceding quarter. Looking forward, we still estimate that the impact will moderate for the remainder of 2023 and will be approximately flat for the year.

現在讓我們更詳細地回顧一下本季度，從幻燈片 4 中收入變化的組成部分開始。我們的有機增長率為 5.2%。外幣換算的影響是負面的，報告收入減少了 3.2%，再次低於上一季度。展望未來，我們仍然估計影響將在 2023 年剩餘時間內緩和，全年將大致持平。

The impact of acquisition and disposition revenue was negative 1%, primarily reflecting the disposition of our businesses in Russia announced near the end of the first quarter of 2022. Given the recent disposition of our small research businesses earlier in April, we expect a similar reduction of about 1% for the balance of the year, prior to any acquisitions we expect to complete later this year.

收購和處置收入的影響為負 1%，主要反映了我們在 2022 年第一季度末宣布的俄羅斯業務處置。鑑於我們最近在 4 月初處置了我們的小型研究業務，我們預計會有類似的減少在我們預計今年晚些時候完成的任何收購之前，今年剩餘時間約為 1%。

Moving on to Slide 5, let's review our revenue growth by discipline. During the first quarter, Advertising and media posted 5.1% organic growth, once again led by strong performance in our media businesses. Precision Marketing had strong growth of 7% organically. We continue to invest in this area, and we see opportunities for future growth in the market for digital customer experience, data analytics and digital transformation services.

轉到幻燈片 5，讓我們按紀律回顧一下我們的收入增長。第一季度，廣告和媒體實現了 5.1% 的有機增長，再次由我們媒體業務的強勁表現帶動。精準營銷實現了 7% 的強勁有機增長。我們繼續投資於這一領域，我們看到了數字客戶體驗、數據分析和數字轉型服務市場未來增長的機會。

Commerce and brand consulting grew organically by 3.3%, primarily on the strength of our branding and design agencies. Experiential organic growth was 8.4%, led by Europe, the U.K. and the Middle East. Execution and support returned to growth at 3.6%, led by our merchandising and support businesses and offset by a reduction in our research businesses. Public Relations was strong at 5.8%, coming off a challenging double-digit growth comparable in Q1 of '22. Finally, health care grew 4.8%, and we continue to see good growth trends in this business, 2023 supported by new client wins last year.

商業和品牌諮詢有機增長 3.3%，主要得益於我們的品牌和設計機構。在歐洲、英國和中東的帶動下，體驗式有機增長為 8.4%。執行和支持業務以 3.6% 的速度恢復增長，這主要得益於我們的銷售和支持業務，但被我們研究業務的減少所抵消。公共關係表現強勁，達到 5.8%，實現了與 22 年第一季度相當的具有挑戰性的兩位數增長。最後，醫療保健增長了 4.8%，我們繼續看到該業務的良好增長趨勢，2023 年受到去年贏得新客戶的支持。

Please note that we made some adjustments to reclassify certain agencies among our disciplines to reflect changes where an agency's current and future capabilities better aligns with our new discipline. Prior periods have been restated to the current presentation. No changes were made to total revenues or total organic growth. For your reference, we've included a slide in the appendix of updated 2022 quarterly and annual revenue by discipline.

請注意，我們進行了一些調整，對我們學科中的某些機構進行了重新分類，以反映機構當前和未來能力更好地與我們的新學科保持一致的變化。以前的期間已經重述到當前的演示文稿。總收入或總有機增長沒有變化。供您參考，我們在附錄中包含了一張按學科更新的 2022 年季度和年度收入的幻燈片。

The impact of the changes on the 2022 presentation by discipline was minor. The only notable change resulting from reclassifying our digital communities agency, which has been more closely aligned with our research capabilities from the commerce and brand consulting discipline to our execution and support discipline. Turning to Slide 6 for revenue by region. You can see that growth was above 5% everywhere except Asia Pacific, where we saw some regional performance challenges impact results.

這些變化對 2022 年學科展示的影響很小。對我們的數字社區機構進行重新分類導致的唯一顯著變化，它與我們從商業和品牌諮詢學科到我們的執行和支持學科的研究能力更加緊密地結合在一起。轉向幻燈片 6 按地區劃分的收入。你可以看到除了亞太地區以外，其他地方的增長率都超過 5%，我們看到一些區域績效挑戰影響了結果。

In the U.S., our 5.1% quarterly organic growth was led by Advertising and media, Precision Marketing and Public Relations. International organic growth of 5.4% was led by Advertising and media, Precision Marketing. And our experiential businesses had strong growth outside the U.S., but were flat in the U.S. Regionally, we had positive growth across our top 10 countries with the exception of China. Looking at revenue by industry sector on Slide 7 compared to the first quarter of 2022.

在美國，我們 5.1% 的季度有機增長由廣告和媒體、精準營銷和公共關係引領。廣告和媒體、精準營銷引領國際有機增長 5.4%。我們的體驗業務在美國以外的地區增長強勁，但在美國則持平。從地區來看，除中國外，我們在前 10 個國家/地區實現了正增長。與 2022 年第一季度相比，在幻燈片 7 上查看按行業劃分的收入。

We had higher relative weights in food and beverage and auto, offset by a lower relative weight in technology. Other categories were broadly stable. Let's now move down the income statement and look at expenses on Slide 8. Our total operating expenses were flat at $3.1 billion. Salary-related service costs were flat. The increase resulting from organic revenue growth and additional head count was offset by the effects of foreign currency translation.

我們在食品和飲料以及汽車領域的相對權重較高，但被技術領域的相對權重較低所抵消。其他類別大致穩定。現在讓我們向下移動損益表並查看幻燈片 8 上的費用。我們的總運營費用持平於 31 億美元。與工資相關的服務成本持平。有機收入增長和員工人數增加帶來的增長被外幣換算的影響所抵消。

As a percentage of revenue, these costs decreased 1% year-over-year. Third-party service costs, which include third-party supplier costs when we act as principal in providing services to our clients, increased due to an increase in organic revenue. These costs are an integral part of our service offering to our clients. We provided additional operating expense detail this quarter with the addition of the third-party incidental cost line, which primarily consists of client-related travel and incidental out-of-pocket costs that we will back to clients directly at our cost, and we are required to include in revenue.

這些成本佔收入的百分比同比下降 1%。第三方服務成本，包括我們作為委託人向客戶提供服務時的第三方供應商成本，由於有機收入的增加而增加。這些成本是我們為客戶提供的服務不可或缺的一部分。我們在本季度提供了額外的運營費用詳細信息，增加了第三方附帶成本線，其中主要包括與客戶相關的旅行和附帶的自付費用，我們將直接以我們的成本返還給客戶，我們是需要計入收入。

These costs were previously included in the third-party service cost line, and they tend to increase when revenue increases and decrease when revenue decreases. In Q1, they increased due to an increase in revenues. We hope this incremental disclosure will assist in your analysis of our results. Occupancy and other costs were down a bit. They increased slightly due to growth in general office expenses as our workforce continues to return to the office, which was offset by the effects of foreign currency translation.

這些成本以前包括在第三方服務成本線中，並且當收入增加時它們會增加，當收入減少時它們會減少。在第一季度，由於收入增加，它們有所增加。我們希望這種增量披露將有助於您分析我們的結果。入住率和其他成本略有下降。由於我們的員工繼續返回辦公室，一般辦公費用增加，因此它們略有增加，這被外幣換算的影響所抵消。

SG&A expenses decreased primarily due to lower professional fees and the effects of foreign currency translations. We will reference -- Slide 16 in the appendix presents our operating expense detail on a constant currency basis. Similar to the income statement highlights slide we discussed earlier, Slide 9 presents both the reported and non-GAAP adjusted results of 2023 and 2022 by removing the Q1 2023 real estate repositioning charges and the Q1 2022 charges arising from the effects of the war in Ukraine.

SG&A 費用減少主要是由於專業費用降低和外幣換算的影響。我們將參考——附錄中的幻燈片 16 以固定貨幣為基礎展示了我們的運營費用細節。與我們之前討論的損益表亮點幻燈片類似，幻燈片 9 通過刪除 2023 年第一季度的房地產重新定位費用和因烏克蘭戰爭的影響而產生的 2022 年第一季度的費用，展示了 2023 年和 2022 年的報告和非 GAAP 調整後的結果.

Our first quarter 2023 adjusted operating income of $466 million was flat with the first quarter of last year. The related adjusted operating income margin was 13.5% compared to 13.7% in the first quarter of last year. Please turn now to Slide 10 for our cash flow performance. We define free cash flow as net cash provided by operating activities, excluding changes in operating capital. Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2023 was $429 million, up 26.3% from last year, which included the cash impact of charges arising from the war in Ukraine.

我們 2023 年第一季度的調整後營業收入為 4.66 億美元，與去年第一季度持平。相關調整後營業利潤率為 13.5%，而去年第一季度為 13.7%。請現在轉到幻燈片 10 了解我們的現金流量表現。我們將自由現金流定義為經營活動提供的淨現金，不包括經營資本的變化。 2023 年第一季度的自由現金流為 4.29 億美元，比去年增長 26.3%，其中包括烏克蘭戰爭產生的費用的現金影響。

Changes in operating capital are typically negative in the first quarter and level for the first quarter of 2023 was similar to the last few years. As we look forward for the full year 2023, we continue to expect changes in operating capital to be a source of cash again. Regarding our uses of cash, we used $142 million of cash to pay dividends to common shareholders and another $13 million for dividends and noncontrolling interest shareholders, both similar to last year.

第一季度運營資本的變化通常為負，2023 年第一季度的水平與過去幾年相似。在我們展望 2023 年全年時，我們繼續預計運營資本的變化將再次成為現金來源。關於我們的現金使用，我們使用了 1.42 億美元的現金向普通股股東支付股息，另外 1300 萬美元用於向股息和非控股股東支付股息，均與去年相似。

Our capital expenditures of $23 million were at normal levels and flat with last year. Acquisition spend, net of dispositions and other items was $38 million and related to the acquisition of additional noncontrolling interests. And lastly, our net stock repurchases for the quarter of $279 million, roughly in line with last year's first quarter level and well on the way toward our annual expectation of $500 million to $600 million.

我們 2300 萬美元的資本支出處於正常水平，與去年持平。扣除處置和其他項目後的收購支出為 3800 萬美元，與收購額外的非控股權益有關。最後，我們本季度的淨股票回購額為 2.79 億美元，大致與去年第一季度的水平持平，並且正在朝著我們 5 億至 6 億美元的年度預期邁進。

Slide 11 is an overview of our credit, liquidity and debt maturities. At the end of the first quarter of '23, the book value of our outstanding debt was relatively flat at $5.6 billion, compared to the same period last year. There were no changes in outstanding balances during the quarter. And our $2.5 billion revolving credit facility, which backstops our $2 billion U.S. commercial paper program, remains undrawn. And our cash and cash equivalents were $3.3 billion.

幻燈片 11 概述了我們的信貸、流動性和債務期限。與去年同期相比，23 年第一季度末，我們未償債務的賬面價值相對持平，為 56 億美元。本季度未結餘額沒有變化。我們 25 億美元的循環信貸額度支持我們 20 億美元的美國商業票據計劃，但仍未動用。我們的現金和現金等價物為 33 億美元。

Turning to Slide 12. Our operating capital discipline consistently drives above-average returns on both invested capital and equity. For the 12 months ended March 31, 2023, we generated a solid return on invested capital, 24% and a strong return on equity of 45%. The strength of our business delivers attractive returns on a relative basis in both strong and weaker macroeconomic environments. In closing, as 2023 begins, we continue to review our costs to better align with our estimated revenues and an uncertain economy.

轉到幻燈片 12。我們的運營資本紀律始終推動投資資本和股權的回報高於平均水平。在截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的 12 個月裡，我們實現了 24% 的穩健投資回報率和 45% 的強勁股本回報率。我們的業務實力在宏觀經濟環境強勁和疲軟的相對基礎上提供了有吸引力的回報。最後，隨著 2023 年的開始，我們將繼續審查我們的成本，以更好地與我們的估計收入和不確定的經濟保持一致。

And our decision to exit certain real estate in Q1 is consistent with this approach. Our Q1 performance was solid and a first step toward delivering on our full year guidance of an operating income margin between 15% and 15.4%, excluding the impact of the real estate repositioning charge. We expect to be at or close to the top of that range.

我們在第一季度退出某些房地產的決定與這種方法是一致的。我們的第一季度業績穩健，是實現全年營業利潤率 15% 至 15.4% 指導目標的第一步，不包括房地產重新定位費用的影響。我們希望達到或接近該範圍的頂部。

Our approach always includes the opportunity for strategic and accretive acquisitions. And if those opportunities are not immediately available, we will continue to use our free cash flow to boost total shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. Operator, please open the lines up for questions and answers. Thank you.

我們的方法始終包括戰略性和增值性收購的機會。如果不能立即獲得這些機會，我們將繼續利用我們的自由現金流通過股息和股票回購來提高股東總回報。接線員，請打開問題和答案的線路。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions). And the first question comes from the line of David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）。第一個問題來自摩根大通的 David Karnovsky。

John, just wanted to see if you can provide any additional context around the organic guide? I think last quarter, you said you were extremely comfortable with the low end of 3% to 5%, just given the performance at the top end of the range in Q1, has that level of comfort moved higher at all?

約翰，只是想看看您是否可以提供有關有機指南的任何其他背景信息？我想上個季度，你說你對 3% 到 5% 的低端非常滿意，只是考慮到第一季度範圍高端的表現，這種舒適度有沒有提高？

Not yet. We're still comfortable with the 3%, and our stretch target remains 5% for the year. We'll know more certainly by the time we get to the second quarter's call in July, but business it's all very positive Clients are getting cautious, and they're trying where they can to avoid long-term commitments and create as much flexibility in their spending as possible. Therefore, we're doing the same.

還沒有。我們仍然對 3% 感到滿意，我們今年的延伸目標仍然是 5%。當我們在 7 月份召開第二季度電話會議時，我們會更清楚地知道，但業務都是非常積極的客戶正在變得謹慎，他們正在努力避免長期承諾並在他們的支出盡可能多。因此，我們正在做同樣的事情。

Okay. And then, Phil, can you just confirm, I think you said for the margin guide at the higher end of the range? And then how should we think about the benefit of those real estate actions maybe flowing through to future years?

好的。然後，菲爾，你能不能確認一下，我想你說的是范圍高端的保證金指南？那麼我們應該如何考慮這些房地產行動的好處可能會流向未來幾年？

So in terms of the higher end, I think we're comfortable that we're going to close the year out closer to 15.4% than 15%. And we're pretty confident given the real estate actions that we took and our conservative approach to managing the cost structure, especially in this kind of an environment, that we're going to close the year -- even though it's early, we'll close the year between the midpoint and the high end of the range.

因此，就高端而言，我認為我們很高興我們將在今年結束時接近 15.4%，而不是 15%。考慮到我們採取的房地產行動以及我們管理成本結構的保守方法，尤其是在這種環境下，我們非常有信心我們將結束這一年——儘管現在還早，我們”我將在範圍的中點和高端之間結束這一年。

Anything on future years for the real estate action?

未來幾年的房地產行動有什麼進展嗎？

In terms of the real estate actions, I think that's part of what gives us confidence in getting to the high end of the range. What you need to keep in mind is that there's a number of other factors in our cost structure that are going to have an impact. And specifically with respect to real estate, as people come back to work, more frequently come back to the office, we're going to have to deal with a little bit of an increase in our occupancy costs.

就房地產行動而言，我認為這是讓我們有信心達到該範圍高端的部分原因。你需要記住的是，我們的成本結構中還有許多其他因素會產生影響。特別是在房地產方面，隨著人們回來工作，更頻繁地回到辦公室，我們將不得不應對入住成本的一點點增加。

We're going to manage through that. We're also making some investments, as John had referenced, with some -- a trial with some satellite offices. We need to do a little work on the space that we have. So there's a bunch of moving parts just within the rent and occupancy line, but we do expect it to be a benefit and a benefit in '23 and beyond for sure.

我們將設法解決這個問題。正如約翰所提到的，我們也在進行一些投資——對一些衛星辦公室進行試驗。我們需要在現有空間上做一些工作。因此，在租金和入住率線內有一堆移動部件，但我們確實希望它在 23 世紀及以後肯定會帶來好處和好處。

Next, we'll go to the line of Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將與摩根士丹利一起去Ben Swinburne的路線。

I had a question first on sort of the impact of your net -- from net new business wins on your performance, including the L'Oreal win late last year, was net new business big enough to call out in Q1? And should we be thinking about further benefits from L'Oreal kicking in later in the year? I realize existing clients spend kind of dwarfs net new business, but you guys did mention it on the last earnings call. So I wanted to see if we can get an update on sort of the tailwinds you're seeing and any magnitude you can help us think about. That's my first question.

我首先有一個關於你的淨影響的問題 - 從新業務淨贏對你業績的影響，包括去年年底歐萊雅的勝利，淨新業務是否大到足以在第一季度召集？我們是否應該考慮歐萊雅在今年晚些時候推出的更多好處？我意識到現有客戶在新業務上的花費有點小，但你們在上次財報電話會議上確實提到了這一點。所以我想看看我們是否可以獲得關於你所看到的順風的更新以及你可以幫助我們考慮的任何幅度。這是我的第一個問題。

Yes, Ben, we take all that into consideration. We're giving you the estimate of what we think is happening in the revenue in the aggregate. But L'Oreal specifically, we were ramping up costs in the first -- first quarter. The revenues didn't start until April 1.

是的，本，我們考慮到了所有這些。我們正在為您提供我們認為總體收入中發生的情況的估計。但特別是歐萊雅，我們在第一季度增加了成本。收入直到 4 月 1 日才開始。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I'm wondering how you guys thought about competition for talent as you reintroduced -- or, I guess, introduced the sort of back to work 3 days any concerns there about how you compete and position working at Omnicom versus other opportunities? And what's sort of the reaction internally to that message, given what we've been through the last couple of years, you guys feel pretty confident that it's net additive to the overall operation in the business?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想知道你們在重新引入人才時是如何考慮人才競爭的——或者，我猜，引入了那種為期 3 天的返工，你是否擔心你在 Omnicom 的競爭和定位與其他機會相比？考慮到我們過去幾年的經歷，內部對該消息的反應是什麼，你們非常有信心它對業務的整體運營產生了淨影響？

We certainly, not only I, I think the leadership of our groups believe that it's necessary and will therefore be effectively additive in the long run. Where we benefit is the great resignation (inaudible) is over. You see it in the layoffs that the tech industry is doing in some other areas. So we believe that we'll be just fine.

我們當然，不僅是我，我認為我們集團的領導層認為這是必要的，因此從長遠來看將有效地增加。我們受益的地方是偉大的辭職（聽不清）結束了。你可以從科技行業在其他一些領域的裁員中看到這一點。所以我們相信我們會沒事的。

Naturally, there will be individual cases where people want to come back, and they'll seek other alternatives. But in the scheme of things, it's not going to be significant. As we've implemented this policy, if you go around the world, we needed to put out the minimum of 3 days a week, principally for the United States. Once you get outside the United States, people have been back in the office like in Asia for the 5 days a week and most of Europe, at least 4.

當然，也會有個別情況，人們想回來，他們會尋求其他選擇。但在事情的計劃中，它不會很重要。由於我們實施了這項政策，如果你去世界各地，我們需要每周至少安排 3 天，主要是在美國。一旦你離開美國，人們就會像在亞洲一樣每周有 5 天回到辦公室，而在歐洲大部分地區，至少有 4 天。

So people -- our managers also know that at first, when people come back, we're going to invest a little money, making an event to come back just to reintroduce people to -- having to come back. But I think we're also doing other smart things. If you lived in Long Island or Connecticut or in New Jersey, and if we say come back to the New York office, it would take you 2 hours and cost you a fortune, tolls and whatever else. We, I think, very wisely have put satellite locations.

所以人們——我們的經理也知道，一開始，當人們回來時，我們會投資一點錢，舉辦一個活動讓他們回來，只是為了讓人們重新認識——不得不回來。但我認為我們也在做其他聰明的事情。如果你住在長島或康涅狄格州或新澤西州，如果我們說回到紐約辦公室，那將花費你 2 個小時，並花費你一大筆錢、通行費和其他任何費用。我認為，我們非常明智地放置了衛星位置。

So people can have that as their permanent location and only on occasion going in the course of a month will they have to come back to the city. So we're trying every sensible thing to look at for the benefit and the welfare of our employees. And it's time for them to come back because we're a creative service company, and we work better when we're together.

所以人們可以把它作為他們的永久住所，只有在一個月的時間裡他們才會偶爾回到這座城市。因此，我們正在嘗試一切明智的事情來考慮員工的利益和福利。現在是他們回來的時候了，因為我們是一家創意服務公司，我們在一起時工作得更好。

Next, we'll go to the line of Tim Nollen with Macquarie.

接下來，我們將轉到 Tim Nollen 和 Macquarie 的台詞。

John, could I follow up on the comment that you have in the press release and you mentioned in your prepared remarks about taking operational steps and some plans in place to mitigate macro headwinds. Just to clarify if that's anything incremental or if that's just basically the same message that you've been giving for some time now? And then I have a follow-up as well.

約翰，我能否跟進您在新聞稿中的評論以及您在準備好的評論中提到的關於採取操作步驟和一些計劃以減輕宏觀逆風的問題。只是想澄清一下這是否是漸進的，或者這是否與您一段時間以來一直在傳達的信息基本相同？然後我也有一個後續行動。

Sure. I probably say it's pretty consistent to what we've been saying to the last 100 conference calls that I've been on. There's -- one thing that will benefit us is we continue to ramp up in the hiring, say, in places like India have increased in order for us to become cost efficient for the benefit of our clients as well as for our shareholders. And that will continue to grow.

當然。我可能會說這與我們在過去 100 次電話會議中所說的非常一致。有 - 對我們有利的一件事是我們繼續增加招聘，例如，在印度等地增加招聘，以便我們為客戶和股東的利益提高成本效益。這將繼續增長。

That's why I mentioned that we're opening up 3 campuses, which in the past, that's what tech companies did as opposed to advertising agencies. So we have some plans, and we are cautiously introducing them just in the normal course of business to mitigate costs. And we also have it in our ability to accelerate that if we find that we have to adjust for something. So the plans vary. The scenarios vary. I think Phil had some statistics about how quickly we recovered from very serious recessions in the past. I don't know if that would add any color to it or not.

這就是為什麼我提到我們正在開放 3 個校區，這在過去是科技公司所做的，而不是廣告公司。所以我們有一些計劃，我們只是在正常的業務過程中謹慎地引入它們以降低成本。如果我們發現我們必須針對某些事情進行調整，我們也有能力加快這一進程。所以計劃各不相同。情況各不相同。我認為 Phil 有一些關於我們從過去非常嚴重的衰退中恢復的速度的統計數據。我不知道這是否會給它添加任何顏色。

I think the commentary or the prepared remarks, certainly were more focused on what we've typically done in the past, and we're not waiting around as we didn't in the past for the serious headwinds to arrive. We're making sure we take a more sensible, conservative review -- or sensible and conservative view so that we keep our cost structure in line with the current and anticipated revenue base.

我認為評論或準備好的評論肯定更側重於我們過去通常所做的事情，我們不會像過去那樣等待嚴重的逆風到來。我們正在確保我們進行更明智、更保守的審查——或者更明智和保守的觀點，以便我們使我們的成本結構與當前和預期的收入基礎保持一致。

I think if you look at our performance coming out of the last couple of business -- either recessions or challenging times, we've been able to manage through it pretty successfully and bounce back pretty quickly. And I don't think you should expect anything different this time around either.

我認為，如果你看看我們在過去幾筆業務中的表現——無論是經濟衰退還是充滿挑戰的時期，我們都能夠非常成功地度過難關並迅速反彈。而且我認為這次你也不應該期待有什麼不同。

Okay. Great. And then could I follow up on the comment on the Microsoft and the generative AI relationship? I think it was last call that I asked the question about what might ChatGPT do to the business. And I wonder if you can maybe elaborate a bit further. I mean there's a lot of discussion around this replacing people over time and changing the creative process and so forth.

好的。偉大的。然後我可以跟進關於微軟和生成人工智能關係的評論嗎？我想我是在最後一次電話會議上問了關於 ChatGPT 可能對業務做什麼的問題。我想知道你是否可以進一步詳細說明。我的意思是有很多關於隨著時間的推移更換人員和改變創作過程等的討論。

I think your answer then last quarter, John, is that it's just -- it's a matter of improving workflows and making various things more efficient. Could you just elaborate a bit more now that you have an actual, formal relationship with Microsoft in place now?

我認為你上個季度的回答是，約翰，這只是 - 這是一個改進工作流程並使各種事情更有效率的問題。既然您現在與 Microsoft 建立了實際、正式的關係，您能否再詳細說明一下？

Sure. I think there may be more now. We were the second company, I think Microsoft entered into such a relationship with. I think, the first company was Disney. It's a unique deal. And what we're using it for at this point is we're taking all of Omnicom's historical data on top of what GPT can do. And we're running a lot of projects. I'll come to that in a second. We think for clients that want to participate in this they'll add their data and we'll create new models of how we do things to identify consumers.

當然。我認為現在可能有更多。我們是第二家公司，我認為微軟與之建立了這種關係。我認為，第一家公司是迪士尼。這是一個獨特的交易。我們目前使用它的目的是將 Omnicom 的所有歷史數據置於 GPT 的功能之上。我們正在運行很多項目。我會在一秒鐘內談到這一點。我們認為對於想要參與其中的客戶，他們將添加他們的數據，我們將創建新的模型來確定我們如何做事來識別消費者。

So we're putting it all together. And I think presently, we have in excess of 20 projects going on, testing different things. I'd say good 5 of them are directed at the back office and the balance of them are directed to the client side, the revenue side of the business. And it has a lot of potential to positively impact the business. I don't think you'll see that in 2023 because as I also said in my comments, you have to be very careful with this.

所以我們把它們放在一起。我認為目前，我們有超過 20 個項目正在進行，測試不同的東西。我想說其中有 5 個是針對後台辦公室的，其餘的是針對客戶端的，即業務的收入方面。它有很大的潛力對業務產生積極影響。我不認為你會在 2023 年看到這一點，因為正如我在評論中所說，你必須非常小心。

And maybe one of the reasons Microsoft picked us is because we are very careful. There's a lot of ethical questions, and there's a lot of privacy questions. There's a lot that this incredibly powerful tool can do, but you have to get the guidelines and the rules in place before you can actually use it efficiently. In the long term, and this is just my belief, in the long term, I think our creative -- what I'd call knowledge workers, will only find their jobs enhanced by the way that we'll utilize this 5 years from now.

也許微軟選擇我們的原因之一是因為我們非常謹慎。有很多道德問題，還有很多隱私問題。這個非常強大的工具可以做很多事情，但是您必須先了解指導方針和規則，然後才能真正有效地使用它。從長遠來看，這只是我的信念，從長遠來看，我認為我們的創造力——我稱之為知識工作者，只會發現他們的工作會因我們從現在起 5 年後利用這一切的方式而得到改善.

And so we're very optimistic. And we're testing it, playing with it, but we're certainly not deploying it in a way that -- to the full extent of the power that it has. The other thing that I would point out, I mean, you probably -- this may sound like I've said it before, but we've built Omni over the last decade. And we've built it in such a way that is very, very flexible and connected to an awful lot of databases and put in plumbing that was really appropriate for what -- playing with and adding generative AI is going to do.

所以我們非常樂觀。我們正在測試它，玩弄它，但我們肯定不會以一種方式部署它——充分發揮它的力量。我要指出的另一件事，我的意思是，你可能 - 這聽起來像我以前說過的，但我們在過去十年中構建了 Omni。我們以一種非常、非常靈活的方式構建它，並連接到大量數據庫，並安裝了真正適合什麼的管道——玩和添加生成人工智能將要做的事情。

So we have the installation. We have the system. It's deployed for us worldwide. And now we're entering into an environment where we're going to be able to make pretty quick progress, I think, in terms of what works and what doesn't work as people develop these rules, look at the ethics of it and understand what bias is can be affected.

所以我們有安裝。我們有系統。它已在全球範圍內為我們部署。現在我們正在進入一個我們將能夠取得相當快的進展的環境，我認為，在人們制定這些規則的過程中，什麼是有效的，什麼是無效的，看看它的道德和了解什麼是偏見會受到影響。

Next, we go to the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

接下來，我們去看看 Steven Cahall 與 Wells Fargo 的關係。

So John, you said that you don't want to fight the Fed. It seems like maybe the Fed is winning the fight with inflation. That usually means either a weaker consumer or higher unemployment. So I'm just wondering if that's your subsequent expectation? And what does that translate to in terms of any growth implications for the company? Or how you're thinking about managing the business through that? And then I have a couple of follow-ups for Phil.

所以約翰，你說你不想對抗美聯儲。美聯儲似乎正在贏得與通脹的鬥爭。這通常意味著消費者疲軟或失業率上升。所以我只是想知道這是否是您隨後的期望？就對公司的任何增長影響而言，這意味著什麼？或者您是如何考慮通過它來管理業務的？然後我對 Phil 進行了一些跟進。

Sure. well, the Fed hasn't stopped. So the world is still fighting it. And with the employment numbers, they don't look as bad maybe as they could. But the jury is still out about if the Fed is going to be able to get us into a recession, they're certainly trying to slow growth. If they do -- as I said, we've been playing game theory here for quite a number of years in terms of how we would respond to it when we see it, when we believe it's going to occur.

當然。好吧，美聯儲並沒有停止。所以世界仍在與它作鬥爭。就就業數據而言，它們看起來並沒有盡可能糟糕。但對於美聯儲是否能夠讓我們陷入衰退尚無定論，他們肯定會試圖減緩增長。如果他們這樣做了——正如我所說，我們多年來一直在玩博弈論，即當我們看到它時，當我們相信它會發生時，我們將如何應對。

We do, though, have the philosophy that when long-term partner-type client suffer, we're going to suffer a little with them. And that's proved to be a very sensible investment in the past when we faced, I think, more severe circumstances because clients don't forget that. And as they recover, you benefit from it as well. So at this point, we're comfortable with -- we're certainly now comfortable with the low end of the range that we gave you last quarter.

不過，我們確實有這樣一種理念，即當長期合作夥伴類型的客戶受苦時，我們將與他們一起受苦。在過去，當我們面臨更嚴峻的情況時，這被證明是一項非常明智的投資，因為客戶不會忘記這一點。當他們康復時，您也會從中受益。所以在這一點上，我們很滿意——我們現在當然對我們上個季度給你的範圍的低端感到滿意。

We'll strive very hard to get to the top end, but there's too many uncertainties as we sit here today for me to be promising that to you. As soon as we can, we will. So -- maybe I didn't quite answer all of your questions.

我們將非常努力地爭取達到最高點，但我們今天坐在這裡時存在太多不確定性，因此我無法向您承諾這一點。我們會盡快。所以——也許我沒有完全回答你的所有問題。

No, that's helpful. And then maybe, Phil, just first on the margin comment. With the tighter end of the range, is that fully due to the real estate repositioning? Or are there sort of general operating aspects that drove that as well? And also, your net interest was quite low in Q1. I'm sure that's just the rate that you're getting on your deposits. So good to see the Fed is helping there. Should we use that as a decent run rate for kind of net interest going forward?

不，那很有幫助。然後也許，菲爾，首先是邊距評論。隨著範圍的縮小，這是否完全是由於房地產重新定位？還是有某種一般的操作方面也推動了這一點？而且，您在第一季度的淨利息很低。我敢肯定，這就是您的存款利率。很高興看到美聯儲在這方面提供幫助。我們是否應該將其用作未來淨利息的合理運行率？

Sure. So on the margin front, it's certainly -- it's not just real estate. I think it's a whole combination of things. I mean, we've got a number of factors that impact our margins. And trying to balance them all is something we do every day at the lowest level. So while we maybe have experienced some wage inflation like everybody else has in the recent past, we've got a number of initiatives that we've been pursuing and continue to pursue in the areas of offshoring and automation.

當然。所以在保證金方面，它肯定是 - 它不僅僅是房地產。我認為這是一個完整的組合。我的意思是，我們有很多因素會影響我們的利潤率。試圖平衡它們是我們每天在最低水平上做的事情。因此，雖然我們可能像最近其他人一樣經歷了一些工資通脹，但我們在離岸外包和自動化領域已經採取並繼續採取了許多舉措。

We continue to push those and have made a lot of progress on that front and expect to continue to make more progress through the rest of this year and beyond, especially with automation. At the same time, we've taken some actions, obviously, in the area of real estate and occupancy costs. We do expect there to be a reduction on that front, although at the same time, we'll have some incremental occupancy costs as well due to the more people back in the office and/or some of the investments that we touched on earlier.

我們繼續推動這些，並在這方面取得了很多進展，並期望在今年餘下時間及以後繼續取得更多進展，尤其是在自動化方面。與此同時，我們顯然在房地產和入住成本方面採取了一些行動。我們確實希望在這方面有所減少，但與此同時，由於更多人回到辦公室和/或我們之前提到的一些投資，我們也會增加一些入住成本。

So it's all those factors. But certainly, the real estate moves we've made this quarter are going to put us in a better position where we feel more confident that we're going to finish the year at the high end of that range, no question. On the interest front, I would say certainly it's mostly rate. And in Q2 of '23, we expect interest income to increase again year-on-year relative to Q2 of '22, probably not by the same amount as in Q1 because our working capital cycle is such that we'll have less cash available to invest relative to Q1.

所以這就是所有這些因素。但可以肯定的是，我們在本季度所做的房地產舉措將使我們處於一個更好的位置，我們更有信心在這一範圍的高端結束今年，毫無疑問。在利息方面，我肯定會說主要是利率。在 23 年第二季度，我們預計利息收入將比 22 年第二季度再次同比增長，增幅可能與第一季度不同，因為我們的營運資金周期使我們的可用現金減少相對於第一季度進行投資。

So we expect interest income to go up. We expect interest expense to go up just a bit as well largely because the interest rate used on our pension and post-employment benefits, that rate has gone up as well. It's a rate issue, not a volume issue going the other way. And the rest of our debt portfolio is relatively fixed. When you get to the second half, I think we had a considerable amount of interest income increases in the second half of '22.

因此，我們預計利息收入會上升。我們預計利息支出也會略有上升，主要是因為我們的養老金和離職後福利所使用的利率也有所上升。這是一個速率問題，而不是相反的體積問題。我們其餘的債務組合相對固定。當你進入下半年時，我認為我們在 22 年下半年的利息收入有相當大的增長。

So I think you could expect net interest expense in the second half to kind of be flat to maybe a little bit of incremental interest expense, depending again on what happens with rates primarily.

因此，我認為您可以預期下半年的淨利息支出將持平，可能會增加一點點利息支出，這又主要取決於利率的變化。

Next, we go to the line of Jason Bazinet with Citi.

接下來，我們去看看花旗的Jason Bazinet。

I just had a question on buybacks. I heard you reiterate that $500 million to $600 million for the full year. But I just noticed you did a decent maybe half of that in the first quarter, and I was just looking back at the prior years, and sometimes your buybacks are front-end loaded and sometimes are back-end loaded. Is there any sort of algorithm that you guys have? Is that just a function of your view of the value of the shares? Is it working capital related? Or what is it that causes your buybacks to be (inaudible)

我只是有一個關於回購的問題。我聽說你重申全年需要 5 億到 6 億美元。但我只是注意到你在第一季度做了一半，我只是回顧前幾年，有時你的回購是前端加載的，有時是後端加載的。你們有什麼算法嗎？這只是你對股票價值的看法的結果嗎？與營運資金有關嗎？或者是什麼導致你的回購（聽不清）

No. I think if you go back over a longer period of time, you probably even go back 10 years, you'll see that most of the volume of buybacks has occurred in the past -- in the first quarter and the second quarter, usually the first quarter a little more than the second quarter, so the first half of the year. And then we tend to have less activity in Q3 and Q4.

不，我認為如果你回顧更長的時間，你甚至可能回到 10 年前，你會發現大部分回購量都發生在過去——第一季度和第二季度，通常第一季度比第二季度多一點，所以是上半年。然後我們在第三季度和第四季度的活動往往較少。

I think there have been a couple of anomalies recently given COVID, certainly for one, and probably the economic slowdown prior to that, which is probably close to 8 to 10 years ago. So there might be a blip here or there, but it's not due to price sensitivity or anything similar to that. We largely returned cash to shareholders through the buyback, and we tend to do that more so in the first half of the year.

我認為最近由於 COVID 出現了一些異常情況，當然有一個，而且可能是在此之前的經濟放緩，這可能接近 8 到 10 年前。所以這里或那裡可能會出現波動，但這不是由於價格敏感性或類似的原因。我們主要通過回購向股東返還現金，而且我們傾向於在今年上半年這樣做。

And if I could just add one thing. Our capital policy is first to pay dividends, next to do acquisitions and then finally, to do share repurchases with the free cash flow. And there's a number of tuck-in acquisitions that we're looking at currently, which when we get completed with our due diligence and if we get across the finish line, cash will be used for that, that might change it.

如果我可以添加一件事。我們的資本政策是先分紅，然後收購，最後用自由現金流回購股票。我們目前正在考慮進行一些收購，當我們完成盡職調查並且如果我們越過終點線時，將使用現金，這可能會改變它。

So there's no -- excuse me, there's no formula for -- we're going to do this in January, we're going to do this in July. That's not how it works. We use our judgment to get to these forecasts to be as transparent and as consistent as we can review.

所以沒有 - 對不起，沒有公式 - 我們將在 1 月份這樣做，我們將在 7 月份這樣做。它不是這樣工作的。我們根據自己的判斷使這些預測盡可能透明和一致。

And the last questioner will be Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

最後一位提問者將是來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

My first question, historically, your company and your peers' pricing has not been much of a factor in your organic revenue growth year-to-year on a like-for-like basis on the services you guys provide. I'm just curious, in this higher interest rate environment, are you able to raise prices any more aggressively now versus what you've done in the past?

我的第一個問題，從歷史上看，貴公司和同行的定價在你們提供的服務的基礎上並沒有成為你們年復一年有機收入增長的重要因素。我只是很好奇，在這種高利率環境下，與過去相比，你們現在是否能夠更積極地提價？

Well, our people are always trying to get paid fairly for the services that we provide. And -- but we do live in a competitive environment. So there's a lot of -- many clients have given us increases, and many clients are not in a position to give us increases. And to offset and to pay for salary inflation, as Phil mentioned earlier, we've sped up.

好吧，我們的員工一直在努力為我們提供的服務獲得公平的報酬。而且 - 但我們確實生活在競爭激烈的環境中。所以有很多 - 許多客戶給了我們增加，許多客戶無法給我們增加。為了抵消和支付工資通脹，正如菲爾之前提到的，我們加快了速度。

And we're doing a much more professional job with offshoring then I can say, we've done at any point in the past. That isn't necessarily to create extra income, that's to create extra resource so we can continue to attract the best talent there is in the marketplace.

我們在離岸外包方面做得更專業，我可以說，我們在過去的任何時候都做過。這不一定是為了創造額外收入，而是為了創造額外資源，這樣我們才能繼續吸引市場上最優秀的人才。

And then also, John, your conversation with your clients, has your thought on this year changed materially since the last time you spoke to us 2.5 months ago in terms of the outlook for what you're hearing from clients? I mean a lot changed on the macro side, I think with all the banking issues, et cetera, over the last couple of months and stuff. But it sounds like you're obviously keeping our organic revenue growth outlook the same, but I'm just curious, client for client are you sensing any more cautiousness now versus what you were thinking 2.5 months ago?

然後，約翰，你與客戶的談話，自 2.5 個月前你上次與我們交談以來，你對今年的想法是否發生了重大變化，就你從客戶那裡聽到的前景而言？我的意思是宏觀方面發生了很多變化，我認為在過去幾個月裡所有的銀行問題等等。但聽起來你顯然保持我們的有機收入增長前景不變，但我很好奇，客戶對客戶你現在感覺比 2.5 個月前的想法更加謹慎嗎？

On a macro basis, no. Prior to this call, I was talking to the CEO of Adobe. And one of the things you're saying is I wish people would stop talking the economy down because business is great. And so it's a mix. I don't think anybody expected the banking situation to occur that came out of worse [deal]. But I think everybody that I speak to is -- ends up being -- I'd have to say the conclusion I reach is cautiously optimistic.

在宏觀基礎上，沒有。在這次電話會議之前，我正在與 Adobe 的首席執行官交談。你說的其中一件事是我希望人們不要因為生意很好而談論經濟。所以這是一個混合體。我認為沒有人預料到銀行業的情況會因更糟糕的[交易]而發生。但我認為與我交談的每個人都是——最終都是——我不得不說我得出的結論是謹慎樂觀的。

But in a very sophisticated way, expecting that there's still going to be a lot more uncertainty until the Fed and its partners around the world think that they're done. And so people are looking to create flexibility without abandoning the commitments they've made to grow their brands.

但以一種非常複雜的方式，預計在美聯儲及其全球合作夥伴認為他們已經完成之前，仍然會有更多的不確定性。因此，人們希望在不放棄他們為發展品牌所做的承諾的情況下創造靈活性。

And with that, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T conferencing service. You may now disconnect.

這樣，我們今天的會議就結束了。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。