Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Ollie's Bargain Outlet's conference call to discuss financial results for the third quarter, fiscal 2023. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this call is being recorded and the reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without the expressed written authorization of Ollie's.

早安，歡迎參加 Ollie's Bargain Outlet 的電話會議，討論 2023 財年第三季度的財務業績。（操作員說明）請注意，本次通話正在錄音，不允許全部或部分複製本次通話未經Ollie's 明確書面授權。

Joining us today from Ollie's management are John Swygert, President and Chief Executive Officer; Eric van der Valk, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Rob Helm, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天加入我們的 Ollie 管理階層包括總裁兼執行長 John Swygert； Eric van der Valk，執行副總裁兼營運長；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Rob Helm。

Certain comments made today may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements.

今天發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述，並且是根據經修訂的 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款並在其含義範圍內發表的。此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。

Those risks and uncertainties are described in our fiscal 2022 Form 10-K dated March 24, 2023, and fiscal 2023 periodic reports on file with the SEC and the earnings press release. Forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements.

這些風險和不確定性在我們於 2023 年 3 月 24 日提交的 2022 財年 10-K 表格以及向 SEC 歸檔的 2023 財年定期報告和收益新聞稿中進行了描述。今天所做的前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議之日，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的任何義務。

On today's call, the company will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of those most closely comparable GAAP financial measures to the non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings press release.

在今天的電話會議上，該公司還將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益新聞稿中包含了那些最接近的公認會計原則財務指標與非公認會計原則財務指標的調節表。

With that said, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Swygert. Please go ahead, sir.

話雖如此，我現在將把電話轉給 Swygert 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. We had another strong quarter and are pleased with the positive trends in our business. Our third quarter sales and margins came in ahead of our expectations, driven by strong deal flow, lower supply chain costs, and continued execution throughout the organization.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們又經歷了一個強勁的季度，並對我們業務的積極趨勢感到滿意。在強勁的交易流、較低的供應鏈成本以及整個組織的持續執行的推動下，我們第三季的銷售額和利潤率超出了我們的預期。

In the quarter, comparable store sales increased 7%, net sales increased 14.8% to $480 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 29.5% to $51 million. We also opened a record 23 new stores in the quarter and saw a very healthy new store productivity in the period. Based on the strength of our third quarter results and current business trends, we are raising our sales and earnings guidance for the full year.

本季度，可比商店銷售額成長 7%，淨銷售額成長 14.8%，達到 4.8 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 29.5%，達到 5,100 萬美元。我們還在本季開設了創紀錄的 23 家新店，並且在此期間看到了非常健康的新店生產力。根據我們第三季業績的強勁表現和當前的業務趨勢，我們正在提高全年的銷售和獲利預期。

The third quarter represents our sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable store sales growth, and we continue to see broad-based strength across numerous categories. In the quarter, over 60% of our product categories comp positive with our top performers being candy, sporting goods, housewares, food, and toys. Our summer seasonal categories such as room air and summer furniture also contributed to our strong performance.

第三季是我們連續第六個季度可比商店銷售成長，我們繼續看到多個類別的廣泛實力。本季度，我們超過 60% 的產品類別表現良好，其中表現最好的是糖果、體育用品、家庭用品、食品和玩具。我們的夏季季節性類別（例如室內空氣和夏季家具）也為我們的強勁表現做出了貢獻。

The closeout deal flow is very strong. Consumers remain under pressure, and we are looking -- and are looking for ways to save money on branded merchandise they need and want in their homes. Manufacturers are creating new and innovative products, changing packaging and sizes, and competing for retail shelf space, which is all creating more closeout opportunities.

平倉交易流非常強勁。消費者仍然面臨壓力，我們正在尋找方法，以節省購買他們在家中需要和想要的品牌商品的費用。製造商正在創造新的創新產品，改變包裝和尺寸，並爭奪零售貨架空間，所有這些都創造了更多的清倉機會。

We are built for this environment. For over 41 years, Ollie's has been selling brand-name products at drastically reduced prices, which are 20% to 70% below traditional retailers. We are a trusted source with both our customers and vendor partners. Customers know they can find real brands and real bargains on products they need and use in their lives every day.

我們是為這種環境而生的。 41 年來，Ollie's 一直以大幅降價銷售名牌產品，比傳統零售商低 20% 至 70%。我們是客戶和供應商合作夥伴值得信賴的來源。顧客知道他們可以找到真正的品牌和他們每天生活中需要和使用的產品的真正便宜的產品。

Our vendors know we are a one-stop shop for managing excess inventory in closeouts. With over 500 stores and growing, our size and scale is becoming a real competitive advantage, and we are seeing better access to deals across a growing number of categories and vendors. Our deal pipeline remains very strong.

我們的供應商知道我們是管理清倉中過剩庫存的一站式商店。我們擁有 500 多家商店，並且還在不斷增長，我們的規模和規模正在成為真正的競爭優勢，我們看到越來越多的類別和供應商能夠更好地獲得交易。我們的交易管道仍然非常強勁。

Deals drive our business, and execution drives our success. The pandemic disrupted our execution in many ways, and we have spent the last couple of years investing in our people, supply chain, distribution centers, stores, and marketing. We are executing better across the business, and this is driving productivity gains throughout the organization. Eric will speak to some of these in a moment.

交易推動我們的業務，執行推動我們的成功。疫情在許多方面擾亂了我們的執行力，過去幾年我們一直在投資員工、供應鏈、配送中心、商店和行銷。我們在整個業務中執行得更好，這正在推動整個組織的生產力提高。埃里克稍後將談到其中的一些內容。

Ollie's Army continues to be another bright spot with membership up almost 5% year-over-year and accounting for over 80% of our sales in the quarter. Our busiest and most exciting night of the year, Ollie's Army Night is this Sunday, December 10. This is our way of saying thank you to our best and most loyal customers and giving them something special.

Ollie's Army 仍然是另一個亮點，其會員數量同比增長近 5%，占我們本季銷售額的 80% 以上。我們一年中最繁忙、最激動人心的夜晚，即12 月10 日這個星期日，是奧利的陸軍之夜。這是我們向我們最好和最忠誠的客戶表示感謝的方式，並為他們提供了一些特別的東西。

Our stores are loaded with great deals, and our teams are ready to welcome our loyal bargainauts. If you are an Ollie's Army member, we hope to see you there. If not, there's still time to enlist and share in the fun and special savings.

我們的商店充滿了超值優惠，我們的團隊已準備好迎接我們忠實的討價還價者。如果您是奧利軍成員，我們希望在那裡見到您。如果沒有，您仍然有時間加入並分享樂趣和特別優惠。

To wrap it up, we are pleased with our third quarter results and the continued momentum in our business. We are executing across the board, buying great deals, managing our supply chain, opening new stores, and controlling our cost. We are well-positioned to continue growing and scaling the business and remain confident with our ability to deliver against our long-term growth targets of double-digit sales growth, 40% gross margin, and double-digit EBITDA growth.

總而言之，我們對第三季的業績和業務的持續成長勢頭感到滿意。我們正在全面執行，購買大優惠，管理我們的供應鏈，開設新店並控制我們的成本。我們已做好充分準備，繼續發展和擴大業務，並對實現兩位數銷售額增長、40% 毛利率和兩位數 EBITDA 增長的長期增長目標保持信心。

Now let me pass the call over to Eric to discuss our store growth and operating initiatives.

現在讓我把電話轉給埃里克，討論我們的商店成長和營運計劃。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Our results this quarter reflect the strength of our deals, the hard work and commitment of our incredibly talented team and our efforts to improve execution across the organization. Process improvements and investments we have made in our people, supply chain and stores are driving better productivity and execution.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。我們本季的業績反映了我們的交易實力、我們才華橫溢的團隊的辛勤工作和承諾，以及我們為提高整個組織的執行力所做的努力。我們對員工、供應鏈和商店進行的流程改善和投資正在推動更高的生產力和執行力。

The most important pillar of our long-term strategy is store growth. In the third quarter, we opened 23 stores. This is a record number of openings in a quarter for Ollie's. We are also excited to report we surpassed the 500-store milestone and expanded into another state, ending the quarter with 505 stores in 30 states. We have already opened another 5 stores in the fourth quarter, including our first store in Long Island, New York. This puts us at 43 new stores this fiscal year with 2 additional stores planned to open later this quarter.

我們長期策略最重要的支柱是商店成長。第三季度，我們開了23家門市。這是 Ollie's 單季的空缺數量創紀錄的。我們也很高興地報告，我們已經突破了 500 家商店的里程碑，並擴展到另一個州，本季末在 30 個州擁有 505 家商店。我們已經在第四季度開設了另外 5 家商店，其中包括我們在紐約長島的第一家商店。這使得我們本財年新開 43 家門市，並計劃在本季稍後開設 2 家新店。

Turning to remodels. Our customers deserve an updated shopping experience that better showcases the amazing deals we offer in an organized and easy-to-navigate store format. We completed 12 stores during the quarter, bringing us to 26 stores through the first 3 quarters. We are on track to complete approximately 35 remodels this year.

轉向改造。我們的客戶應該獲得更新的購物體驗，以井然有序且易於導航的商店形式更好地展示我們提供的令人驚嘆的優惠。本季我們開設了 12 家門市，前 3 季門市數量達到 26 家。今年我們可望完成約 35 項改造。

Moving to marketing. We continue to look for innovative ways to enhance and expand our marketing efforts. We are pleased with the performance of our streamlined flyer, which we believe better showcases our most compelling deals. During the quarter, we shifted one flyer out of the third quarter and into the fourth as planned. We continue to broaden our reach and build our brand awareness through other forms of marketing.

轉向行銷。我們繼續尋找創新方法來加強和擴大我們的行銷工作。我們對精簡傳單的表現感到滿意，我們相信它更好地展示了我們最引人注目的優惠。在本季中，我們按計劃將一張傳單從第三季移至第四季。我們繼續透過其他形式的行銷擴大我們的影響力並建立我們的品牌知名度。

We executed a campaign around National Bargain Hunting Week, which included a survey as well as a media tour with lifestyle expert and influencer, Limor Suss. This campaign generated over 500 million impressions. We are continuing to build on our success and have expanded the program to include over 50 influencers.

我們圍繞全國討價還價週開展了一項活動，其中包括一項調查以及生活方式專家和影響者 Limor Suss 的媒體巡演。該活動產生了超過 5 億次展示。我們正在繼續取得成功，並將該計劃擴大到包括 50 多名有影響力的人。

The growth of our social media marketing program keeps -- helps keep Ollie's message of savings top of mind with existing customers and attract new customers as well. This is helping fuel our growth, especially with the younger customer demographic, which is our fastest-growing segment.

我們社群媒體行銷計畫的不斷發展，有助於讓現有客戶牢記 Ollie 的儲蓄訊息，並吸引新客戶。這有助於推動我們的成長，尤其是年輕客戶群，這是我們成長最快的細分市場。

Our collective marketing efforts led to a nice improvement in Ollie's Army growth this quarter. The customer file increased 4.8% year-over-year and sales from the Army representing over 80% of our sales. We are encouraged to see that our compelling deals and enhanced marketing programs are attracting younger customers to the Army. We also implemented a Military Appreciation Discount Day for all Ollie's Army members who are veterans or active duty military.

我們的集體行銷努力使奧利的軍隊本季的成長有了很大的改善。客戶檔案年增 4.8%，來自陸軍的銷售額占我們銷售額的 80% 以上。我們很高興看到我們引人注目的交易和增強的行銷計劃正在吸引年輕的客戶加入陸軍。我們也為所有退伍軍人或現役軍人的奧利軍隊成員實施了軍事感謝折扣日。

Turning to supply chain. We continue to expand our distribution and network to support our growth and are on track to open our fourth distribution center in Illinois in fiscal 2024. This will provide us the capacity to service an additional 150 to 175 stores as we expand into the Midwest.

轉向供應鏈。我們繼續擴大分銷和網絡以支持我們的成長，並預計在2024 財年在伊利諾伊州開設第四個分銷中心。隨著我們向中西部擴張，這將使我們有能力為額外的150 至175 家商店提供服務。

The expansion of our Pennsylvania distribution center was completed in August, and we are seeing immediate benefits in throughput and operating efficiency. These combined investments give us the ability to service between 700 and 750 stores in support of our long-term target of 1,050 stores or more.

我們賓州配送中心的擴建已於八月完成，我們看到了吞吐量和營運效率的直接效益。這些綜合投資使我們能夠為 700 至 750 家商店提供服務，以支持我們 1,050 家或更多商店的長期目標。

Before I turn the call over to Robert, I would like to take a moment to thank our amazing associates who are value obsessed and committed to the successful growth of our company. I am super proud of the excellent teamwork we continue to demonstrate each and every day in the execution of our business. Rob?

在將電話轉給羅伯特之前，我想花點時間感謝我們出色的員工，他們沉迷於價值並致力於我們公司的成功發展。我對我們每天在業務執行中不斷展現的出色團隊合作感到非常自豪。搶？

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with our third quarter results, which came in ahead of our expectations. We delivered better-than-expected comp sales and flow through to the bottom line. With the strength of the third quarter and continued momentum in our business, we are raising our sales and earnings guidance for the full year.

謝謝埃里克，大家早安。我們對第三季的業績非常滿意，超出了我們的預期。我們的銷售額和利潤都比預期好。憑藉第三季的強勁表現和業務的持續成長勢頭，我們提高了全年的銷售和獲利預期。

In the third quarter, net sales increased 14.8% to $480 million, driven by a 7% increase in comparable store sales and new store unit growth. Our comp store sales growth was driven primarily by transactions. And as John indicated, over 60% of our product categories comped positive in the quarter. Ollie's Army increased 4.8% to 13.7 million members, and sales to the Army represented over 80% of total sales.

第三季度，受可比門市銷售額成長 7% 和新店單位成長的推動，淨銷售額成長 14.8%，達到 4.8 億美元。我們的比較店銷售成長主要是由交易推動的。正如約翰指出的那樣，我們超過 60% 的產品類別在本季度取得了積極的業績。 Ollie's Army 會員人數增加了 4.8%，達到 1,370 萬，向陸軍的銷售額佔總銷售額的 80% 以上。

During the quarter, we opened 23 new stores, ending with 505 stores in 30 states, an increase year-over-year of 9.1%. Our new store productivity was very strong in the quarter, and our new stores continue to perform above our expectations across both new and existing markets.

本季度，我們新開了 23 家門市，在 30 個州開設了 505 家門市，較去年同期成長 9.1%。本季我們的新店生產力非常強勁，我們的新店在新市場和現有市場的表現持續超出我們的預期。

Gross margin improved 100 basis points to 40.4% compared to last year, primarily driven by favorable supply chain costs, slightly offset by higher shrink in merchandise mix. Gross margin was ahead of our expectations for this quarter, and the out-performance was primarily driven by strong deal flow.

與去年相比，毛利率提高了 100 個基點，達到 40.4%，這主要是受到有利的供應鏈成本的推動，但被商品組合的縮減程度略有抵消。本季的毛利率超出了我們的預期，而出色的表現主要是由強勁的交易流推動的。

SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales leveraged 40 basis points to 29.5% driven by the leverage of fixed expenses on the increase in comparable store sales, even after taking into account the impact of higher incentive compensation costs year-over-year.

即使考慮到同比較高的激勵薪酬成本的影響，由於固定費用對可比商店銷售額增長的槓桿作用，SG&A 費用佔淨銷售額的百分比仍上升了 40 個基點，達到 29.5%。

Operating income increased 32.3% to $39 million, and operating margin increased 100 basis points to 8.1% in the quarter. Adjusted net income increased 37.4% to $32 million, and adjusted earnings per share was $0.51 compared to $0.37 last year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 29.5% to $51 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 120 basis points to 10.6% for the quarter.

本季營業收入成長 32.3%，達到 3,900 萬美元，營業利潤率成長 100 個基點，達到 8.1%。調整後淨利成長 37.4%，達到 3,200 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.51 美元，而去年為 0.37 美元。本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 29.5%，達到 5,100 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 120 個基點，達到 10.6%。

Turning to the balance sheet. Our cash position remained strong with $264 million between cash on hand and short-term investments, and no outstanding borrowings under our revolving credit facility. Inventories increased 2% to $532 million, primarily driven by new store growth, partially offset by the benefit of lower capitalized freight costs. Adjusting for these items, our inventory increased 5%.

轉向資產負債表。我們的現金狀況仍然強勁，手頭現金和短期投資為 2.64 億美元，且我們的循環信貸安排下沒有未償還借款。庫存成長 2%，達到 5.32 億美元，主要由新店成長推動，但部分被資本化貨運成本降低的好處所抵銷。在這些項目進行調整後，我們的庫存增加了 5%。

Capital expenditures totaled $36 million in the quarter and were primarily for the development of new stores, remodeling of existing stores. The completion of the company's distribution center expansion in York, Pennsylvania, and the construction of our new distribution center in Illinois.

本季資本支出總計 3,600 萬美元，主要用於新店開發、現有店面改造。完成公司在賓州約克的配送中心擴建，以及在伊利諾州建造新的配送中心。

During the quarter, we bought back 143,000 shares of common stock for a total of $11 million. At the end of the quarter, we had $98 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization, which the Board approved extending to March 2026. We are committed to returning capital to our investors through share repurchases while balancing our strategic growth opportunities and working capital needs.

本季度，我們回購了 143,000 股普通股，總金額為 1,100 萬美元。截至本季末，我們目前的股票回購授權還剩9,800 萬美元，董事會批准將其延長至2026 年3 月。我們致力於透過股票回購向投資者返還資本，同時平衡我們的策略成長機會和營運資金需求。

Turning to our outlook for the full year. Based on our strong third quarter results and current trends in the business, we're raising both our sales and earnings outlook for fiscal 2023. We are entering the fourth quarter with momentum in our business and are confident in our ability to execute.

轉向我們對全年的展望。基於我們強勁的第三季度業績和當前的業務趨勢，我們提高了 2023 財年的銷售和盈利前景。我們正帶著業務勢頭進入第四季度，並對我們的執行能力充滿信心。

With a lot of business still ahead of us, including Ollie's Army Night, we believe that we are well-positioned to deliver great deals to our customers. We do start to come up against more difficult comparisons in the fourth quarter, and we'll continue to take a measured approach to setting expectations.

我們還有很多業務要做，包括奧利的陸軍之夜，我們相信我們有能力為客戶提供超值優惠。我們確實在第四季開始遇到更困難的比較，我們將繼續採取謹慎的方法來設定預期。

For the full year, which includes a 53rd week, we now expect total net sales of $2.097 billion to $2.104 billion, comparable store sales growth of 5.3% to 5.6%, the opening of 45 new stores less 1 closure, gross margin in the range of 39.2% to 39.3%, operating income of $221 million to $225 million.

對於全年（包括第 53 週），我們目前預計總淨銷售額為 20.97 億美元至 21.04 億美元，可比商店銷售額增長 5.3% 至 5.6%，新開 45 家商店減少 1 家關閉，毛利率在39.2%至39.3%，營業收入2.21億美元至2.25億美元。

Adjusted net income of $172 million to $176 million and adjusted net income per diluted share of $2.77 to $2.83, an annual effective tax rate of 25.2%, which excludes the tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 62 million, and capital expenditures of approximately $125 million, including $75 million for the construction of our fourth distribution center and the expansion of our Pennsylvania distribution center.

調整後淨利為1.72 億美元至1.76 億美元，調整後每股攤薄淨利潤為2.77 美元至2.83 美元，年度有效稅率為25.2%，其中不包括與股票薪酬相關的稅收優惠，攤薄後加權平均流通股約62 股百萬美元，資本支出約 1.25 億美元，其中 7,500 萬美元用於建設第四個配送中心和擴建賓州配送中心。

Lastly, let me provide a few comments on our fourth quarter expectations. We are raising our Q4 comp sales expectation to approximately 3%. This takes into account the shift of 1 flyer into the fourth quarter from the third. We expect to open 7 new stores in the fourth quarter. Although there is 1 store that is currently scheduled to open in late January, that could fall into early February.

最後，讓我對第四季的預期發表一些評論。我們將第四季的銷售預期提高至 3% 左右。這考慮了 1 名傳單從第三節轉移到第四節的情況。我們預計第四季將開設 7 家新店。雖然目前有 1 家商店計劃於 1 月下旬開業，但也可能會推遲到 2 月初。

Now, let me turn the call back over to John.

現在，讓我把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Rob. Over the past 41 years, our team has grown to over 12,000 team members who are working harder than ever. The holiday season places extra demands on our team members, and I thank them for all their hard work and dedication. It is the combined experience, passion and commitment of the entire team that makes Ollie's special. I'm grateful for our team and all that you do each and every day. As we say, we are Ollie's.

謝謝，羅布。在過去的 41 年裡，我們的團隊已發展到超過 12,000 名團隊成員，他們比以往任何時候都更加努力。假期對我們的團隊成員提出了額外的要求，我感謝他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。整個團隊的經驗、熱情和奉獻精神使 Ollie's 與眾不同。我感謝我們的團隊以及你們每天所做的一切。正如我們所說，我們是奧利的。

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

我們準備好的演講到此結束，現在我們很高興回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will be coming from Brad Thomas of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas。

Congratulations on a nice quarter here. John -- yes, absolutely, well deserved. Well, my question is really around how you're thinking about same-store sales for 2024. You've long had the algorithm of sort of a 1% to 2% comp. But if we go back, I think that these last 2 quarters, I mean, they really stand out. You had the pandemic period, you had the take-up period, if you go back about a decade ago. I mean these will prove to be some tough comparisons next year. How are you thinking at this point about same-store sales for next year?

恭喜您度過了一個愉快的季度。約翰——是的，絕對是當之無愧的。嗯，我的問題實際上是關於您如何考慮 2024 年的同店銷售額。您長期以來一直採用 1% 到 2% 的補償演算法。但如果我們回顧過去，我認為最後兩個季度，我的意思是，他們真的很突出。如果你回到大約十年前，你有過大流行期，你有接受期。我的意思是，明年這些將被證明是一些艱難的比較。目前您對明年的同店銷售有何看法？

Yes, Brad, that's a great question. I think, obviously, we have spent a lot of time here in our public life since 2015. It's really setting the bar at a 1% to 2% comp on annual basis. This year is definitely outsized, but we executed a lot better this year than we had in the prior 2 years. So I'm pretty confident that for 2024, a 1% to 2% annual guide is where we'll be.

是的，布拉德，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，顯然，自 2015 年以來，我們在公共生活中花費了很多時間。這確實將每年的薪資標準設定為 1% 到 2%。今年確實規模很大，但我們今年的執行情況比前兩年好得多。因此，我非常有信心，到 2024 年，我們將實現 1% 到 2% 的年度指導。

That's great. And then as a follow-up around margins, you've talked about getting back to that 40% gross margin, hopefully, next year. How are you feeling about gross margin as you look out to next year?

那太棒了。然後，作為關於利潤率的後續行動，您談到了希望明年恢復到 40% 的毛利率。展望明年，您對毛利率有何看法？

Brad, this is Rob. We're confident in our ability to get back to a 40% gross margin. Obviously, supply chain costs are a nice tailwind for us now. We don't anticipate for them to head back in the other direction. So we feel like that will be where it is. I think that shrink has stabilized. It's not getting any worse. It's slightly better on a full year. But I think with that being flat, we could certainly achieve the 40% gross margin.

布拉德，這是羅布。我們對恢復 40% 毛利率的能力充滿信心。顯然，供應鏈成本現在對我們來說是一個很好的推動力。我們預計他們不會朝另一個方向返回。所以我們覺得這就是它的位置。我認為收縮已經穩定下來。情況並沒有變得更糟。全年情況稍好。但我認為，如果保持平穩，我們肯定可以實現 40% 的毛利率。

And our next question will be coming from Peter Keith of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Peter Keith。

Nice quarter for me as well. To follow on Brad's first question, just thinking about the compare for 2024 and expectations to comp 1% to 2%. Curious if there's things that you can be doing now to sort of set that foundation and drive the continued growth against these compares.

對我來說也很美好。繼續 Brad 的第一個問題，僅考慮 2024 年的比較以及 1% 至 2% 的預期。很好奇您現在是否可以做一些事情來奠定基礎並推動這些比較的持續成長。

Yes, Peter, we're a closeout retailer and we buy what's available in the marketplace. So we always remind everybody comping quarter-by-quarter can be a little challenging sometimes, but annually, we do believe the deals will present themselves. The biggest thing we can do as an organization to be able to set ourselves up for success is to be able to execute consistently. And I think we're doing that now, and I think that's what we're going to be continuing to focus on going forward.

是的，彼得，我們是一家清倉零售商，我們購買市場上現有的商品。因此，我們總是提醒每個人，按季度進行比較有時可能會有點挑戰性，但每年，我們確實相信交易都會出現。作為一個組織，為了成功，我們能做的最重要的事情就是能夠始終如一地執行。我認為我們現在正在這樣做，而且我認為這就是我們未來將繼續關注的事情。

The deals drive the business without a doubt, and the merchants are working each and every day to try to do better and better year over year. So that's what we'll be focused on going out this current fiscal year.

毫無疑問，這些交易推動了業務發展，商家們每天都在努力，力爭一年比一年做得更好。這就是我們本財年的重點工作。

Okay. And I know every year is a pretty good buying environment. For what it's worth, it does seem like your stores have a really good assortment of brand name merchandise right now. And I know you always try to drive to a pretty consistent merch margin. So I'm wondering if actually the pricing gap that you have perhaps has widened a little bit to some of your key competitors or a just better deal environment, more opportunistic pricing, and if you hold the merch margin, you can give consumers a better value. Is that something you guys are planning for right now?

好的。我知道每年都是一個非常好的購買環境。就其價值而言，您的商店現在似乎確實擁有種類繁多的品牌商品。我知道你總是試著保持相當穩定的商品利潤。因此，我想知道，您的定價差距實際上是否已經擴大到一些主要競爭對手，或者只是更好的交易環境，更多的機會主義定價，如果您保持商品利潤，您可以為消費者提供更好的產品價值。這是你們現在正在計劃的事情嗎？

We're not -- we're planning to try to get back to the 40%, Peter. We're not there yet. We obviously did a very good job in Q3, and we feel pretty confident with Q4. But at the same time, we don't have visibility out that far to be able to say what we're going to see and what's going to be presented to us next year. But our #1 focus is to give the best value to the consumer to motivate them, especially on the discretionary items. But if we can do better, we'll do better. But right now, we would tell you that we're going to try to get to the 40%, and then, we'll go from there.

我們沒有——我們計劃嘗試回到 40%，彼得。我們還沒到那兒。顯然我們在第三季做得非常好，我們對第四季非常有信心。但同時，我們還沒有那麼遠的視野，無法說出我們將看到什麼以及明年將向我們呈現什麼。但我們的第一個重點是為消費者提供最大的價值來激勵他們，特別是在非必需品上。但如果我們能做得更好，我們就會做得更好。但現在，我們會告訴你，我們將努力達到 40%，然後，我們將從那裡開始。

And our next question will be coming from Kate McShane of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的凱特·麥克沙恩。

We wondered if you could walk through the cadence of comps that you saw throughout the quarter, and I know you discussed the categories that performed well during the quarter, but where did you see maybe some weakness within certain categories? And how has that trended into Q4?

我們想知道您是否可以回顧一下您在整個季度中看到的比較節奏，我知道您討論了本季度表現良好的類別，但是您在哪裡看到了某些類別中可能存在的弱點？第四季的趨勢如何？

I'll take the cadence, and then, I'll hand it off to John for the categories. From a cadence perspective, the strength that we saw from Q2 spilled over into the beginning parts of the third quarter. August and September we're pretty much equally strong. And then October was a little bit softer, but that was as planned as a result of the flyer change that we had talked about on the last call.

我會遵循節奏，然後將其交給約翰進行分類。從節奏的角度來看，我們從第二季看到的強勁勢頭蔓延到了第三季的初期。八月和九月我們幾乎同樣強大。然後 10 月的天氣稍微疲軟，但由於我們在上次電話會議上討論過的傳單變更，這符合計劃。

Yes, Kate, obviously, we called out the strong categories on the call. The categories that we would say were underperformers would not be a surprising thing to the overall market. Our underperformers in the quarter were furniture, domestics, and clothing. Most all that's discretionary in nature or seasonally driven in nature.

是的，凱特，顯然，我們在電話會議上指出了重要的類別。對於整個市場來說，我們所說的表現不佳的類別並不令人意外。本季表現不佳的是家具、家居用品和服裝。大多數情況下，這些都是隨意決定的或季節性驅動的。

With what we're seeing, I would tell you going into Q4, 2 of those 3 categories are no longer the underperforming categories. So we've definitely seen some turnarounds in the domestics and clothing arena going into Q4.

根據我們所看到的情況，我會告訴您進入第四季度，這 3 個類別中的 2 個類別不再是表現不佳的類別。因此，我們確實看到第四季度國內家居用品和服裝領域出現了一些改善。

Furniture is something we have made a concerted effort to reduce in the last couple of years. There's not a high demand for it. Biggest furniture category is really in the mattresses, and that's something that we're still in. But most others, we really deemphasized the furniture category intentionally.

過去幾年我們齊心協力減少家具的使用。對它的要求並不高。最大的家具類別實際上是床墊，這也是我們仍在做的事情。但對於大多數其他家具類別，我們確實有意淡化了家具類別。

And our next question will come from Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的愛德華凱利。

A question I have for you on just promotional cadence in Q3, I believe there was a 15% off coupon that you didn't run early in addition to the flyer that shifted. So I'm curious if the impact overall was bigger than the 1% hit that you had talked about. And then, as we think about Q4, that flyer shifts in. So do you still think that's 100 basis points based upon what you saw? And then what about like any other couponing or sort of promotional considerations that we should be thinking about?

我想問你一個關於第三季促銷節奏的問題，我相信除了轉移的傳單之外，還有一張 15% 的優惠券你沒有提前運行。所以我很好奇整體影響是否比你所說的 1% 的影響更大。然後，當我們考慮第四季度時，傳單就會發生變化。那麼，根據您所看到的情況，您是否仍然認為這是 100 個基點？那麼我們應該考慮的其他優惠券或促銷考慮因素又如何呢？

Ed, it's Eric. I'll take the question. I think maybe in reverse order, the ad shift, print and digital were primarily driven by the print dates. It met our expectations shifting out of Q3 into Q4. So we're expecting that shift to be, as you said, approximately 100 basis points into Q4.

艾德，是埃里克。我來回答這個問題。我認為也許以相反的順序，廣告轉變、印刷和數位主要是由印刷日期驅動的。它滿足了我們從第三季進入第四季的預期。因此，正如您所說，我們預計第四季度的轉變約為 100 個基點。

In terms of promotions, in general, whether coupon or other promotions, we run coupon promotions from time to time, although we're not promotional in nature. We're not a high-low retailer. We do run promotions as you've mentioned from time to time, and it's not an exact science. We look at a number of factors, including variances in where the calendar falls, timing of holidays.

在促銷方面，總的來說，無論是優惠券還是其他促銷，我們都會不時進行優惠券促銷，儘管我們本質上不是促銷。我們不是一家高低差的零售商。正如您所提到的，我們確實會不時進行促銷活動，但這並不是一門精確的科學。我們會考慮許多因素，包括日曆所在位置的差異、假期時間。

For example, there's an extra Saturday or meaningful weekend in this Christmas season, holiday season in front of us, business needs or inventory content in kind of where we stand, and we make decisions tactical, sometimes in the moment to promote based on all of those factors. We have no plans to run any additional promotions this year at this point.

例如，在這個聖誕節期間，有一個額外的星期六或有意義的周末，假期在我們面前，業務需求或庫存內容就在我們的立場上，我們做出戰術決策，有時是在基於所有這些的當下進行促銷這些因素。今年我們沒有計劃進行任何額外的促銷活動。

Got it. Okay. And -- go ahead, I'm sorry.

知道了。好的。還有——請繼續，我很抱歉。

No, go ahead, sorry.

不，請繼續，抱歉。

Okay. And then just holiday in general, I was curious if you could maybe talk about the product offering that you have lined up. What are you seeing so far in terms of consumer response, demand, especially as it pertains to like post-Thanksgiving at this point? And I guess how does current trends sort of line up with the comp guides that you've got laid out for us?

好的。然後就是一般的假期，我很好奇您是否可以談談您所提供的產品。到目前為止，您對消費者的反應和需求有何看法，尤其是與感恩節後有關的情況？我想當前的趨勢與您為我們制定的薪酬指南是否相符？

Yes, Ed, there's obviously -- there's still a lot of business to do between today and December 24. One of our biggest days of the year is this coming Sunday. So we'd tell you we feel good where we're sitting today. Trends are in line with where we want to be at. So we're very excited with what we've seen from the consumer response perspective.

是的，艾德，很明顯——從今天到 12 月 24 日，還有很多事情要做。我們一年中最重要的日子之一就是即將到來的周日。所以我們可以告訴你，我們今天坐的位置感覺很好。趨勢與我們想要的方向一致。因此，我們對從消費者反應的角度看到的情況感到非常興奮。

There's definitely a little uncertainty out there in the marketplace with the consumer and the demand, but I believe our values are winning and the customers are responding to our values that we're providing to them. So there's a longer shopping period that we're dealing with as well. So we've got a lot to go. We feel good where we're positioned, our offerings are strong, and we'll see where it lands out for the end of the season.

市場上的消費者和需求肯定存在一些不確定性，但我相信我們的價值觀正在獲勝，客戶正在回應我們向他們提供的價值觀。因此，我們也面臨更長的購物期。所以我們還有很多事情要做。我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好，我們的產品也很強大，我們將看看它在賽季末的表現。

Can I just squeeze one more in on SG&A? Could you quantify incentive comp for the quarter? And then what's the drag on that going to be in Q4?

我可以在 SG&A 上再加一筆嗎？您能否量化本季的激勵補償？那麼第四季會受到什麼拖累呢？

Sure. This is Rob. Incentive comp was about 50 basis points of a headwind to the fourth quarter. So if you factor that in with the 40 basis points of leverage we showed in the financials, we got -- we would have gotten 90 basis points of leverage this quarter with the 7-comp, which we were pretty pleased with. For the fourth quarter, it's about a 60 basis point headwind. And then we've included that consideration in our guidance.

當然。這是羅布。激勵補償比第四季逆風約 50 個基點。因此，如果考慮到我們在財務數據中顯示的 40 個基點的槓桿率，我們會得到——本季度 7-comp 的槓桿率將達到 90 個基點，我們對此非常滿意。第四季的逆風約為 60 個基點。然後我們將這項考慮納入了我們的指南中。

Our next question will come from Jason Haas of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的賈森·哈斯。

I'm curious if you could talk about some of the improvements that you've made to the business over the past year or so in order to better capitalize on this environment where folks are searching for value. So I'm curious in terms of like supply chain and store's operations if you could just talk about some of the projects you've been working on there.

我很好奇您是否可以談談過去一年左右您對業務所做的一些改進，以便更好地利用人們正在尋找價值的環境。因此，我對供應鏈和商店運營等方面感到好奇，您能否談談您一直在那裡從事的一些項目。

Sure, Jason. We've been continuing to work on improvement in productivity in the supply chain and in stores in various ways, investing in process change as well as some lighter investments in systems and in people to ensure that we can execute, ensure that we have -- we're consistently executing with a strong foundation. We also made a change as you're aware to our ads where we're now advertising fewer items in ads.

當然，傑森。我們一直在繼續以各種方式致力於提高供應鏈和商店的生產力，投資於流程變革以及對系統和人員的一些較輕的投資，以確保我們能夠執行，確保我們——我們在堅實的基礎上始終如一地執行。正如您所知道的那樣，我們還進行了更改，現在我們在廣告中宣傳的商品數量減少了。

And I spoke about it a little bit earlier, that's working out quite well, it's driving traffic, and it's reducing complexity and the amount of product we need to move through the pipeline to hit a specific date for an ad break. So that's been a nice improvement as well.

我早些時候談到過這一點，效果很好，它增加了流量，並且降低了複雜性和我們需要通過管道移動以達到廣告插播的特定日期所需的產品數量。所以這也是一個很好的改進。

We do continue to invest in our DCs and material handling equipment to improve productivity, semi-automation that's very market established as well. And then, we've talked a lot over the last 2 years about transportation. So I won't dwell on transportation. We've made some structural changes, especially in international transportation to how we approach the market and how we contract for freight. So we'll go into that in a lot of detail, but that was a pretty big breakthrough for us at kind of the peak of the chaos in the international transportation world.

我們確實繼續投資我們的配送中心和物料搬運設備，以提高生產力，半自動化也是市場成熟的。然後，在過去的兩年裡我們談論了很多關於交通的話題。所以交通方面我就不多說了。我們已經做出了一些結構性改變，特別是在國際運輸方面，我們如何進入市場以及如何簽訂貨運合約。因此，我們將詳細討論這一點，但在國際運輸世界混亂的頂峰時期，這對我們來說是一個相當大的突破。

We do continue to have opportunities as we move into next year to enhance productivity, become more efficient, and we'll continue to invest on the store side, in particular, the way in which we move product from the truck to the floor, and it's been a focus of attention moving into next year.

進入明年，我們確實繼續有機會提高生產力，變得更有效率，我們將繼續在商店方面進行投資，特別是我們將產品從卡車移動到地板的方式，以及這一直是明年的焦點。

Great color. Really helpful. And then as a follow-up, you mentioned that you recently opened a store in Long Island, I recognize that one, I don't know if it's far out in Long Island or not, but curious if you are starting to open stores in higher-cost locations? And if so, if that changes how you're thinking about that long-term 1,050-store target if there can potentially be upside? And then, I guess, also, how those new stores are performing in these -- if you are going to some higher-cost locations?

顏色很棒。真的很有幫助。然後作為後續，你提到你最近在長島開了一家商店，我認識那個，我不知道它在長島是否很遠，但很好奇你是否開始在長島開商店成本較高的地點？如果是這樣，這是否會改變您對 1,050 家門市長期目標的看法？是否還有潛在的上升空間？然後，我想，如果你要去一些成本較高的地點，這些新商店的表現如何？

Sure. I'll take that, Jason. Long Island loves Ollie's, so Southern New York is where we opened the store, and it's off to a great start. We love Long Island, they love us. So I think the question about long term, we have contemplated some high-cost market stores in our 1,050-store target. So that's already contemplated there. So we need the economics to work, but we don't necessarily kind of blindly look at household income as a driver of whether or not a customer doesn't like Ollie's.

當然。我會接受的，傑森。長島很喜歡 Ollie's，因此我們在紐約南部開設了這家商店，這是一個很好的開始。我們愛長島，他們也愛我們。所以我認為關於長期的問題，我們在 1,050 家商店的目標中考慮了一些高成本市場商店。所以這已經被考慮到了。因此，我們需要經濟原理來發揮作用，但我們不一定盲目地將家庭收入視為顧客是否不喜歡奧利的驅動因素。

We've seen a trade down in higher income customers that's meaningful. So that's encouraging, especially over $100,000 in household income. And then, when you look at a place like Long Island, discretionary income becomes a factor as well as the cost of living is also very high. There's maybe a lower discretionary income and customers love, love, love discount retail on Long Island as a result. So we consider that as well.

我們已經看到高收入客戶的交易下降，這是有意義的。所以這是令人鼓舞的，尤其是家庭收入超過 10 萬美元。然後，當你看看像長島這樣的地方時，可自由支配收入成為一個因素，而且生活成本也非常高。可自由支配收入可能較低，因此顧客非常喜歡長島的折扣零售店。所以我們也考慮這一點。

I think, Jason, just one takeaway from it. There's definitely not a strategic change to our store growth philosophy, but that there was an opportunity there that worked for our model and we took it. So we'll continue to be opportunistic, but strategically, there's been no change on how we're going to open the stores going forward.

我想，傑森，這只是其中的一個收穫。我們的商店成長理念絕對沒有策略性改變，但那裡有一個適合我們模式的機會，我們抓住了它。因此，我們將繼續保持機會主義，但從策略上講，我們未來開設商店的方式沒有改變。

Yes. I think John makes a good point. Our real estate strategy is opportunistic in nature. So we have opportunities to open stores that make sense. Whether high cost or rule, we look at them. We consider them, and we -- a lot of qualitative attributes around the store to consider. And if it all adds up, we open the store.

是的。我認為約翰說得很好。我們的房地產策略本質上是機會主義的。因此，我們有機會開設有意義的商店。無論是高成本還是規則，我們都會關注。我們考慮它們，並且我們要考慮商店周圍的許多定性屬性。如果一切順利的話，我們就開店。

Our next question will come from Eric Cohen of Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題將來自戈登哈斯克特的埃里克科恩。

Great quarter, guys. You commented earlier in the call that your company can get back to an algo comp for next year. Just curious as the company gets bigger and bigger, and you guys have a lot of momentum, do you have to change the way you approve deals and the deals you accept since your larger, bigger deals continue to grow as the business scales?

很棒的季度，夥計們。您早些時候在電話會議中評論說，您的公司可以在明年重新獲得演算法補償。只是好奇，隨著公司變得越來越大，你們有很大的動力，你們是否必須改變批准交易和接受交易的方式，因為隨著業務規模的擴大，越來越大的交易繼續增長？

Eric, we've been doing this for a long time, and closeouts are closeouts, and we do not have any hard fast rule on the size of the deal. If it's a small deal and it works and it's the right value for our customer and the right margin for our profile, we're not afraid to buy and put it into just 1 specific region. We look at everything. And there's no set hard fast rule where our merchants say no to the size of a deal.

艾瑞克，我們這樣做已經很久了，平倉就是平倉，我們對交易規模沒有任何硬性規定。如果這是一筆小交易，而且有效，並且對我們的客戶來說是正確的價值，對我們的形象來說是正確的利潤，那麼我們就不會害怕購買並將其放入1 個特定區域。我們專注於一切。而我們的商家並沒有對交易規模說不的硬性規定。

Great. And this is typically, you guys have said 50% of categories comp positive. This is another quarter where more than 50% have comped positive. Is this a reflection of improved value proposition, any change in consumer spending in terms of trading down? Or is this just better execution and deal flow from you guys?

偉大的。你們說過，這通常是 50% 的類別比較正面的情況。這是另一個超過 50% 的公司實現積極盈利的季度。這是否反映了價值主張的改善以及消費者支出在降價方面的任何變化？或者這只是你們更好的執行和交易流程？

I would say it's probably all of the above. I think the deal flow has been strong. The offerings we've had in our stores have been strong. The customer has been responding. There's definitely been a trade down, and there's a need for value more so today than it has been. So I think that's just our offerings are resonating with the consumer.

我想說的可能就是以上所有的情況。我認為交易量一直很強。我們商店裡的產品很豐富。客戶已經回覆了。肯定有交易下跌，而且今天比以往更需要價值。所以我認為這只是我們的產品引起了消費者的共鳴。

Our next question will come from Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

我們的下一個問題將來自克雷格-哈勒姆資本集團的傑里米·漢布林。

And I'll add my congratulations on the strong results. In terms of capital plans and investment for next year, you have obviously the new DC. I think you indicated 35 remodels for '23. And just wanted to get a sense. It sounds like you're on track for 50 -- kind of your 50 to 55 new unit openings next year. I wanted to confirm that one and then also just get a sense on the remodels, which sound like they're going well. Should we expect a similar type of number for 2024?

我還要對取得的強勁成果表示祝賀。就明年的資本計劃和投資而言，顯然有新的 DC。我想你指出了 23 年的 35 次改造。只是想了解一下。聽起來您明年將開設 50 個新單位，相當於 50 到 55 個新單位。我想確認這一點，然後也想了解改造狀況，聽起來進展順利。我們是否應該預期 2024 年會出現類似的數字？

Jeremy, this is Rob. I'll take a couple of pieces of that multipart question, and Eric will take a couple. From a capital planning perspective, we typically, from an algo perspective, would plan for 2% to 2.5% of sales as our capital plan.

傑里米，這是羅布。我將回答這個由多個部分組成的問題中的幾個部分，埃里克將回答幾個問題。從資本規劃的角度來看，從演算法的角度來看，我們通常會規劃銷售額的 2% 到 2.5% 作為我們的資本計畫。

For next year, we do have the carrying of the completion of the fourth distribution center that would increase that number. I would say -- without giving guidance for next year, I would say probably in the range of $75 million for next year just with the carryover. From remodels and new store units, I'll hand it off to Eric.

明年，我們確實將完成第四個配送中心，這將增加這個數字。我想說的是，在不給出明年指導的情況下，我想說明年的結轉金額可能在 7500 萬美元左右。從改造和新商店單位，我會把它交給艾瑞克。

Thanks, Rob. Jeremy, the remodel program, it's less about how many. It's more about maximizing the effectiveness, enrolling the best improvements that we're making to these stores into the rest of the chain as well as influencing our new store design and tweaking our new store designs we are going forward. With that said, we're expecting to remodel approximately the same number of stores next year, approximately. Again, to Rob's point, not giving guidance at this point.

謝謝，羅布。 Jeremy，改造計劃，不在於有多少。更重要的是最大限度地提高效率，將我們對這些商店所做的最佳改進納入鏈條的其餘部分，以及影響我們的新商店設計並調整我們未來的新商店設計。話雖如此，我們預計明年將改造大約相同數量的商店。再次強調，羅布的觀點是，目前沒有提供指導。

From a cap -- tying into capital, they're relatively light from a capital standpoint, and the total investment is between $125,000 and $200,000. So it doesn't add up to particularly material number as a percentage of our overall capital spend, low cost, relatively quick paybacks.

從資本上限來看，從資本角度來看，它們相對較少，總投資在 125,000 美元到 200,000 美元之間。因此，它在我們整體資本支出中所佔的比例並不是特別重要，成本低，投資回報相對較快。

Got it. And then just switching gears to -- you had some interesting color on some of your marketing plans and how that's developing more use of social media and influencers. I wanted to see if you could elaborate on that. And I think you also noted that younger customers were your fastest-growing segment. I wanted to see if you could clarify the age range that you're talking about and just potentially expand on what the company's plans are in terms of those marketing efforts to continue to expand your Army.

知道了。然後，你的一些行銷計劃有一些有趣的色彩，以及如何更多地利用社交媒體和影響者。我想看看你能否詳細說明這一點。我想您也注意到年輕客戶是您成長最快的細分市場。我想看看您是否可以澄清您所談論的年齡範圍，並可能擴展公司在繼續擴大軍隊的營銷工作方面的計劃。

Sure, Jeremy. I guess kind of a retrospective on marketing, several years ago, we've spent almost nothing in digital channels. It's about as close to 0 as you can get. Now, several years later, it's over 1/3 of our overall marketing spend. So it's very, very meaningful. We hired a marketing expert as well who really knew digital, Tom Kuypers, to the team several years ago, and he's really accelerated, propelled our investments in digital over the last several years.

當然，傑里米。我想這是對行銷的回顧，幾年前，我們在數位管道上幾乎沒有花任何錢。它大約是您能得到的最接近 0 的值。幾年後的現在，它已占我們整體行銷支出的 1/3 以上。所以這是非常非常有意義的。幾年前，我們還聘請了一位真正了解數位化的行銷專家 Tom Kuypers 加入團隊，他在過去幾年中確實加速並推動了我們在數位化方面的投資。

A large percentage of that investment is in social media channels, Meta channels, Facebook. In Insta, we have a strategic relationship with Google now and with YouTube. We're on TikTok. The influencer program, over 50 now that we're working with mostly nano, micro influencers.

其中很大一部分投資是在社群媒體管道、元管道、Facebook 上。在 Insta，我們現在與 Google 和 YouTube 建立了策略關係。我們在 TikTok 上。影響者計畫現已超過 50 個，我們主要與奈米、微觀影響者合作。

We think authenticity is really critical with influencers. So we look for people that are already talking about us and then give them incentive to talk about us more. So we continue to test in every available digital channel to see what's most effective. And to your point, it does look like it's producing results and growth of younger customers.

我們認為真實性對於影響者來說非常重要。因此，我們尋找已經在談論我們的人，然後激勵他們更多地談論我們。因此，我們繼續在每個可用的數位管道中進行測試，看看什麼是最有效的。就您而言，它看起來確實正在產生成果並促進年輕客戶的成長。

In terms of defining the age of the younger customer, we're seeing strength in the under 45-year-old customer, so call it, 18 to 45 as well as the 45- to 55-year-old customer. We have a large percentage of customers that are over 55, which are indexing slightly down in cohorts below 45 are exactly up, and we see very positive momentum there.

在定義年輕客戶的年齡方面，我們看到 45 歲以下客戶（即 18 至 45 歲）以及 45 至 55 歲客戶的優勢。我們有很大一部分 55 歲以上的客戶，他們的指數略有下降，而 45 歲以下的客戶群則完全上升，我們看到了非常積極的勢頭。

Our next question will come from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

And congrats on a nice quarter. So, John, maybe larger picture, at 1% to 2% same-store sales, what do you think is the right operating margin maybe longer term for the business? Or how best to think about a bottom line annual growth algorithm with the business returning to that 1% to 2% historical comp trajectory going forward?

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。那麼，約翰，也許從更大的角度來看，在 1% 到 2% 的同店銷售額中，您認為對於企業來說，長期來看合適的營業利潤率是多少？或者如何最好地考慮年度成長演算法的底線，使業務恢復到 1% 到 2% 的歷史比較軌跡？

Yes. I think, Matt, the 1% to 2% comp long-term algo, the operating income will be definitely compressed from our, I'll call it our, all-time high if you look at 2019 per se. We have increased costs now in the SG&A world that are permanent in nature. We used to -- I think we used to be probably close to 25.3% SG&A ratio. It's probably closer to mid-26s now, so probably about a 100 basis point loss in overall operating income.

是的。馬特，我認為，以 1% 到 2% 的長期演算法，營業收入肯定會被壓縮，如果你看看 2019 年本身，我會稱之為我們的歷史最高水準。我們現在在 SG&A 領域增加了永久性的成本。我認為我們過去的 SG&A 比率可能接近 25.3%。現在可能接近 1926 年代中期，因此整體營業收入可能會損失約 100 個基點。

So I would say that you probably see that on a carryforward long-term basis. As we go, we make a little -- 10 bps here and there, but not much more than that on a significant basis. So I think that with the top line growth and the margin of 40 points, we should be able to still be able to maintain double-digit EBITDA growth every year for the foreseeable future.

所以我想說，你可能會在長期結轉的基礎上看到這一點。隨著我們的進展，我們會時不時地賺一點——10個基點，但在很大程度上不會超過這個數字。所以我認為，隨著營收的成長和40個百分點的利潤率，在可預見的未來，我們應該仍然能夠維持每年兩位數的EBITDA成長。

Great. And then maybe, Rob, just a follow-up on the gross margin. Any puts and takes in the fourth quarter just to consider? And then, as we think about the spread in terms of your values in the marketplace today, is 40% a multiyear gross margin ceiling? Or do you think there's any opportunity there to potentially press that a bit higher?

偉大的。羅布，也許只是毛利率的後續行動。第四季有哪些看跌期權需要考慮嗎？然後，當我們考慮當今市場上的價值觀差異時，40% 是多年毛利率上限嗎？或者您認為是否有機會將其推高一點？

I'll take the first part of the question, then I'll hand it off to John on the second part of the question in terms of the longer-term outlook on gross margin. From a Q4 perspective, we'd expect for Q4 gross margin to expand from last year. We are expecting benefits in supply chain costs, probably in the range of what we saw this quarter.

我將回答問題的第一部分，然後將問題的第二部分交給約翰，即毛利率的長期前景。從第四季的角度來看，我們預計第四季的毛利率將比去年擴大。我們預計供應鏈成本將有所改善，可能會在本季的範圍內。

So as a reminder, the fourth quarter is always a little bit lower than the third quarter in terms of gross margin because of the promotional cadence and how the Ollie's Army Night indexes into the quarter. But we'd expect a similar type gross margin -- strong gross margin performance in the fourth quarter.

提醒一下，第四季的毛利率總是比第三季低一點，因為促銷節奏以及奧利的軍隊之夜如何納入該季度。但我們預計第四季會有類似的毛利率——強勁的毛利率表現。

Yes. Matt, with regards to the overall about the long-term margin, we do view the value is key and value is paramount, and we've always focused on giving back to the consumer once we have 40. We're going to continue to focus on that at this point in time. But I do understand there are incremental fixed costs in the SG&A line that we do have to take into consideration from an overall operating perspective.

是的。馬特，就長期利潤率而言，我們確實認為價值是關鍵，價值是至高無上的，我們一直專注於在 40 歲之後回饋消費者。我們將繼續此時集中精力。但我確實了解 SG&A 線中存在增量固定成本，我們確實必須從整體營運角度考慮這些成本。

So we will continue to look at that, revisit it. But number one, I got to give the value to the customer. If I have the opportunity to get a little bit more on the margin, I will. But we need to be very careful with that because we got to make sure we stay relevant with the customer and keep the loyalty.

所以我們將繼續關注這一點，重新審視它。但第一，我必須為客戶提供價值。如果我有機會獲得更多的利潤，我會的。但我們需要非常小心，因為我們必須確保與客戶保持聯繫並保持忠誠度。

Our next question will come from Scot Ciccarelli of Truist.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Truist 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

Scot Ciccarelli. I have a derivative of one of the earlier questions. You guys used to talk about turning down, I think, about 90% of the offers that you would receive from vendors. Can you update us on where that is today, especially as you hit the 500-store mark.

斯科特·西卡雷利。我有一個早期問題的衍生結果。我想，你們過去常常談論拒絕從供應商收到的約 90% 的報價。您能否向我們介紹目前的最新情況，特別是當您的門市數量已達到 500 家時。

Yes. Scot, I think we would say about 80% would turn down. I would tell you it's probably very similar today. The deal flow is very, very strong. Our merchants are being very selective in what they're buying from the vendor community. So that's not changed. We're seeing a big increase in flow from the community. So we're not struggling to get product into the pipeline at all.

是的。史考特，我想我們會說大約 80% 的人會拒絕。我想告訴你，今天的情況可能非常相似。交易流非常非常強勁。我們的商家在從供應商社群購買商品時非常挑剔。所以這沒有改變。我們看到來自社區的流量大幅增加。因此，我們根本不費力地將產品投入生產。

All right. So you're still accepting about the same proportion. Got it. And, John, you guys also -- and you also talked about seeing, obviously, the strong deal flow. Can you help us understand where is it coming from? Meaning, is it coming from certain subsets in the vendor community, whether it's CPG or other categories, verticals, et cetera? And alternatively, are there any areas where you might expect to see better deal flow as we kind of roll into '24?

好的。所以你仍然接受大約相同的比例。知道了。約翰，你們也談到了，顯然，強勁的交易流。你能幫助我們了解它來自哪裡嗎？意思是，它是否來自供應商社群中的某些子集，無論是 CPG 還是其他類別、垂直產業等等？或者，當我們進入 24 世紀時，您是否希望在某些領域看到更好的交易流？

Yes. I would -- Scot, I would tell you that this year, at least, I can tell you, it's been very, very broad-based. Almost every category we carry, we've seen a very significant amount of deal flow. I talked last year that we were starting to see some slowdown in the offerings of candy. Well, that flipped in 2023, and Candy was very strong.

是的。我會 - 斯科特，我會告訴你，至少今年，我可以告訴你，它的基礎非常非常廣泛。幾乎我們經營的每個類別，我們都看到了大量的交易流。我去年曾說過，我們開始看到糖果供應量放緩。好吧，這種情況在 2023 年發生了逆轉，Candy 非常強大。

So the overall -- if I look at deal flow, we've been seeing great deals in HBA, housewares, clothing, lawn and garden, electric, auto. So it's just been all over the board. There's not really a shortfall in any category that I would tell you we're missing any business. And it's broad-based from either -- the CPGs are out there, major manufacturers are out there, there's wholesalers that are out there, but we're continuing to knock on the doors of the major manufacturers to go direct with them, and that's working very well.

總的來說，如果我看一下交易流程，我們就看到了 HBA、家居用品、服裝、草坪和花園、電力、汽車等領域的大量交易。所以一切都已經全面了。我可以告訴你，在任何類別中都沒有真正的短缺，我們錯過了任何業務。兩者都有廣泛的基礎——CPG 在那裡，主要製造商在那裡，那裡有批發商，但我們繼續敲開主要製造商的大門，直接與他們合作，這就是工作得很好。

Our next question will come from Mark Carden of UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的馬克卡登。

So it sounds like you're continuing to see strength in customers with greater than $100,000 in household income. How are repeat trips for this demographic comparing now to some of your more traditional demographics? And then, how are these shoppers impacting your sales mix from a category standpoint? Are they buying higher ticket items? Or are they more consistent with what you're used to?

因此，聽起來您繼續看到家庭收入超過 100,000 美元的客戶的實力。與您的一些更傳統的人群相比，該人群現在的重複旅行情況如何？然後，從品類的角度來看，這些購物者如何影響您的銷售組合？他們購買價格較高的商品嗎？或者它們更符合您的習慣？

Sure, Mark, I'll take the question. It's Eric. We are seeing strength, as you mentioned, in household incomes of $100,000 or greater. We're seeing actually a particular strength over $150,000 in household income. We are seeing an increased frequency from these customers as well, which is great to see. And basket size consistent or greater to the overall basket size of Ollie's Army. I don't know the makeup of the ticket question. So that's something we're going to have to study. You're asking about average, our AUR for that customer base, I don't have the answer to that.

當然，馬克，我會回答這個問題。是埃里克。正如您所提到的，我們看到家庭收入在 10 萬美元或以上的力量強勁。我們實際上看到了家庭收入超過 15 萬美元的特殊優勢。我們看到這些客戶的頻率也有所增加，這是很高興看到的。而籃子尺寸與奧利軍隊的整體籃子尺寸一致或更大。我不知道票問題的構成。這就是我們必須研究的東西。你問的是我們針對該客戶群的平均 AUR，我沒有答案。

Okay. That's still helpful. And then just on the labor front, what are you seeing there as we look ahead to 2024? And any thoughts on potential incremental pressure there?

好的。這還是有幫助的。那麼在勞動力方面，當我們展望 2024 年時，您會看到什麼？對那裡潛在的增量壓力有什麼想法嗎？

We -- it's hard to forecast, but in this moment, we're more stable than we were a year ago in terms of overall turnover. So it feels like that will continue into '24. We're expecting some pressure, but not as much pressure as we felt the last couple of years. We still do have some challenges with the -- I'll call it, the churn of people that are with us for less than 90 days. But overall, it is improving. I'll ask Rob maybe to add some color on wage investments.

我們——很難預測，但目前，我們的整體營業額比一年前更穩定。所以感覺這種情況會持續到24年。我們預計會有一些壓力，但不會像過去幾年那麼大。我們仍然面臨一些挑戰——我稱之為，與我們在一起不到 90 天的員工流失。但總體而言，情況正在改善。我會請羅佈為薪資投資添加一些色彩。

And I would say from a wage investment perspective, we've come a long way over the last couple of years. This year was a mid-single-digit wage increase across our store population. For next year, in terms of the outlook, in terms of operating margin, and what John referenced, we would consider a mid-single-digit increase for next year. Obviously, we're not giving guidance at this time, but we think mid-single digit for next year, but potentially inching back towards the lower-single-digit range.

我想說，從薪資投資的角度來看，我們在過去幾年中取得了長足的進步。今年，我們商店員工的薪資出現了中個位數的成長。對於明年，就前景、營業利潤率以及約翰提到的內容而言，我們將考慮明年實現中個位數的成長。顯然，我們目前不會給出指導，但我們認為明年的價格會在個位數中間，但可能會逐漸回到較低個位數範圍。

Our next question will come from Paul Lejuez at Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

This is Brandon Cheatham on for Paul. I was wondering could you kind of break out what you changed for your fourth quarter outlook. And then just spend a little time on particularly the comp, 3% comp is a decent step down from 3Q. I understand we have a lot of time left for holiday to go. Just trying to gauge how much of that is conservative, what you might be seeing quarter-to-date? And did you see any changes in consumer behavior in mid-October like some other retailers called out?

我是布蘭登·奇塔姆（Brandon Cheatham）替補保羅。我想知道您能否透露您對第四季前景的改變。然後花一點時間在比較上，特別是比較，3% 的比較比第三季下降了一個不錯的台階。我知道我們還有很多時間可以去度假。只是想衡量其中有多少是保守的，您可能會看到本季迄今為止的情況？您是否像其他一些零售商所呼籲的那樣，在 10 月中旬看到消費者行為發生任何變化？

I'll speak to the Q4 guide and the financial information, and I'll let John speak to demand in October. From a guidance perspective, we no longer give quarterly guidance. We suspended doing that earlier this year. We updated our annual outlook, which considers a 3% comp for the fourth quarter. We tightened our gross margin range based on the strength of the Q3 performance. We're going to -- in terms of the Q4 sales guidance, we're going to continue to take a measured approach to guiding and setting expectations. But we -- there's a saying we have around here that we're not going to shut the registers off, so stick with us, and we'll look to do better if we can.

我將談論第四季度指南和財務訊息，我將讓約翰談論十月份的需求。從指導角度來看，我們不再給出季度指導。我們今年早些時候暫停了這樣做。我們更新了年度展望，考慮第四季的複合成長率為 3%。我們根據第三季的強勁表現收緊了毛利率範圍。我們將 - 就第四季度的銷售指導而言，我們將繼續採取謹慎的方法來指導和設定預期。但我們——我們這裡有一種說法，我們不會關閉收銀機，所以請堅持下去，如果可以的話，我們會做得更好。

Yes, Brandon, with regards to the consumer demand and some others may be spoke about in October, October was pretty much in line with our expectations. As you may recall, we shipped it out on ad from October to November. So we expected a little bit of slowdown in that month, but nothing was really alarming to us at the end of Q3.

是的，布蘭登，關於消費者需求和其他一些可能在十月談到的問題，十月幾乎符合我們的預期。您可能還記得，我們​​在 10 月到 11 月期間透過廣告將其發貨。因此，我們預計該月會出現一些放緩，但在第三季末，沒有什麼真正讓我們感到擔憂。

And obviously, we're -- for us to -- you've been following us for a long time, for us to raise our guidance in a quarter that we're in today is -- means a lot to -- should mean a lot to the street that we're actually doing better than expected, and we're excited from where we're at. But there's a lot of business to go here for the next 12 days, and we'll see where everything lands.

顯然，我們——對我們來說——你們已經關注我們很長時間了，對我們來說，在今天所處的季度內提高我們的指導是——意味著很多——應該意味著很多人都知道我們實際上做得比預期的要好，我們對目前的情況感到興奮。但接下來的 12 天，這裡將會有許多生意，我們會看看所有的東西都會落到哪裡。

Got it. I appreciate that. Just on supply chain costs in the third quarter. It sounds like that may have been a bigger benefit than you initially expected. So just wondering, is that the case? Is that kind of back to "normal levels", whether they expected a 2019 or however you gauge that? And then is there a potential of like these trends continue, like would that be a potential benefit into next year?

知道了。我很感激。僅就第三季的供應鏈成本而言。聽起來這可能比你最初預期的好處更大。所以只是想知道，是這樣嗎？無論他們是預期 2019 年還是您如何衡量，這是否回到了「正常水平」？那麼這些趨勢是否有可能持續下去，這會成為明年的潛在好處嗎？

This is Rob. Supply chain was pretty much in line with our expectations. We have some good visibility going out a quarter of the way that the accounting for the model works in terms of the capitalization of the costs. In terms of the composition of the supply chain cost, we're getting great ocean freight rates, they're below pre-pandemic levels.

這是羅布。供應鏈基本上符合我們的預期。我們對模型的四分之一的成本資本化會計方式有一定的了解。就供應鏈成本的組成而言，我們的海運費率很高，低於疫情前的水平。

We still do have an incremental wage investment that's in there from kind of pre-pandemic algo levels. but it's relatively minor. We would -- in terms of trend, we would expect some favorability on the domestic transportation front over the next months and to years. But we wouldn't plan for any further improvement on ocean freight given where it is versus pre-pandemic.

我們仍然有來自大流行前演算法水平的增量工資投資。但相對較小。就趨勢而言，我們預計未來幾個月乃至幾年國內運輸方面會出現一些有利的情況。但考慮到與大流行前相比，我們不會計劃進一步改善海運。

I would now like to turn the conference back to John for closing remarks.

現在我想請約翰致閉幕詞。

I would like to thank everyone for their time and interest in Ollie's. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress on our next earnings call, and everyone have a great holiday season.

我要感謝大家的時間和對奧利的興趣。我們期待在下一次財報電話會議上向您通報我們的持續進度，祝大家假期愉快。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。