歐尼克 (OKE) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to ONEOK's third-quarter 2026 earnings call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加 ONEOK 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Megan Patterson, Vice President, Investor Relations. Megan, please go ahead.

    此刻,我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Megan Patterson。Megan,請開始。

  • Megan Patterson - Investor Relations

    Megan Patterson - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Anna. Welcome to ONEOK's third quarter 2026 earnings call. Our earnings release and presentation were issued after market close yesterday and are available on our website. On our call today are Pierce Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer; Walt Hulse, Chief Financial Officer; Randy Lentz, Chief Operating Officer; and Sheridan Swords, Chief Commercial Officer.

    謝謝你,Anna。歡迎參加 ONEOK 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我們的財報新聞稿與簡報已於昨日收盤後發布,並可在我們的網站上取得。今天與會者包括:總裁兼執行長 Pierce Norton;財務長 Walt Hulse;營運長 Randy Lentz;以及商務長 Sheridan Swords。

  • Following our prepared remarks, management will be available to take your questions. Statements made during this call that might include ONEOK's expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the Safe Harbor provision of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings.

    在我們的準備發言之後,管理團隊將開放回答各位提問。本次電話會議中可能包含 ONEOK 之預期或預測的陳述,應視為前瞻性陳述,並受 1933 年與 1934 年《證券法》之「安全港」條款保障。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述所預測者有重大差異。關於可能導致實際結果不同的因素討論,請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Pierce Norton.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Pierce Norton。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Megan, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Yesterday, we reported strong third quarter results, supported by our record Permian Basin volumes and continued growth across our integrated system, and we increased our 2026 financial guidance for the third time this year. We also completed several strategic milestones.

    謝謝你,Megan。各位早安,也感謝各位今天加入我們。昨日我們公布了強勁的第三季業績,受惠於我們在二疊紀盆地創紀錄的輸送量,以及我們整合式系統的持續成長;同時,我們今年第三度上調 2026 年財務指引。我們也完成了數項策略性里程碑。

  • During the quarter, we closed a $9 billion minority equity investment, extinguished nearly $5.5 billion of debt and received credit rating upgrades from both S&P and Fitch. Earlier this month, we closed the acquisition of Brazos Midstream's Permian Midland Basin assets. Together, these actions give ONEOK greater scale, greater financial flexibility and clear visibility into the future earnings growth.

    本季期間,我們完成了 90 億美元的少數股權投資案,清償近 55 億美元的債務,並獲得標普與惠譽兩家機構的信用評等上調。本月稍早,我們完成收購 Brazos Midstream 在二疊紀 Midland 盆地的資產。綜合而言,這些行動讓 ONEOK 擁有更大的規模、更高的財務彈性,並對未來獲利成長具備清晰可見度。

  • Our confidence in ONEOK's outlook continues to gain momentum, supported by the assets that we own, the customers that we serve, growth projects already underway and the innovation of our people. We're not providing 2027 guidance today, but we expect to do so after our fourth quarter results in February.

    在我們所擁有的資產、所服務的客戶、已在進行中的成長專案,以及同仁的創新能力支持下,我們對 ONEOK 前景的信心持續增強。我們今天不提供 2027 年指引,但預期會在 2 月公布第四季結果後提供。

  • But the underlying drivers are increasingly clear. Constructive producer development plans and continued drilling and completion efficiencies, recently completed projects that will contribute to full year's earnings in 2027, additional projects nearing completion and a full year of ownership of the Brazos assets.

    不過,背後的驅動因素正變得愈來愈清楚。具建設性的生產商開發計畫與持續提升的鑽井與完井效率、近期完工且將在 2027 年貢獻全年獲利的專案、接近完工的其他專案,以及對 Brazos 資產的全年持有。

  • Importantly, that visibility extends across our integrated system and isn't dependent on a single commodity or project or basin. We see opportunities across natural gas, NGLs, refined products and crude and supported by domestic and international demand and the connectivity that we built across our value chain.

    重要的是,這種可見度涵蓋我們的整合式系統,並不依賴單一商品、單一專案或單一盆地。我們在天然氣、NGL(天然氣液)、成品油與原油等領域都看到機會;這些機會受到國內與國際需求,以及我們在價值鏈各環節所建立的連結性所支撐。

  • That diversification gives us a multiple avenues to grow and capture value as the market conditions evolve. The broader backdrop reinforces the opportunity. Global energy markets remain dynamic, but growing natural gas demand for power generation, industrial loads and liquefied natural gas exports to feed the international demand all point to the same need, reliable access to essential energy when and where it is needed. International buyers are increasingly seeking long-term access to US supply for its reliability and resiliency and a trend we're seeing through the strong export demand across our system.

    這種多元化讓我們在市場條件演變時,擁有多條成長與價值擷取的途徑。更廣泛的背景也強化了這項機會。全球能源市場仍然動態多變,但發電、工業負載以及液化天然氣出口以滿足國際需求所帶動的天然氣需求成長,都指向同一個需求:在需要的時間與地點,可靠取得關鍵能源。國際買家正日益尋求長期取得美國供應,因其可靠性與韌性;我們也從系統內強勁的出口需求中看到這一趨勢。

  • These drivers also reinforce our confidence in our mid- to high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth target for the next five to seven years from our 2025 base. Brazos adds substantial contracted growth and value chain opportunities across our system, increasing our momentum toward the higher end of that target. ONEOK has the assets, the financial strength, the discipline and the people to capture the growing energy demand and to deliver sustainable long-term value for our investors.

    這些驅動因素也強化我們對於未來五到七年、以 2025 年為基準的中到高個位數調整後 EBITDA 成長目標之信心。Brazos 帶來可觀的合約式成長與跨系統價值鏈機會,推動我們更接近該目標區間的高端。ONEOK 具備資產、財務實力、紀律與人才,可掌握不斷成長的能源需求,並為投資人創造可持續的長期價值。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Walt for a financial update.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Walt 進行財務更新。

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Pierce. Third quarter net income attributable to ONEOK totaled $1.35 billion or $2.13 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.24 billion, a 6% increase compared with the third quarter of 2025. Net income and EPS included a $336 million onetime noncash income tax benefit related to the corporate reorganization completed in connection with the minority equity transaction.

    謝謝你,Pierce。第三季歸屬於 ONEOK 的淨利為 13.5 億美元,或每股稀釋後盈餘 2.13 美元;調整後 EBITDA 為 22.4 億美元,較 2025 年第三季增加 6%。淨利與 EPS 包含一筆 3.36 億美元的一次性非現金所得稅利益,與少數股權交易相關之公司重組完成所致。

  • Adjusted EBITDA included a $53 million net benefit from the transactions, primarily related to gains on the extinguishment of debt. As Pierce mentioned, we increased our 2026 financial guidance again, reflecting strong year-to-date performance, visibility into the remainder of the year and the addition of the Brazos Midland assets.

    調整後 EBITDA 包含來自交易的 5,300 萬美元淨利益,主要與債務清償所產生的收益有關。如 Pierce 所提,我們再次上調 2026 年財務指引,反映年初至今的強勁表現、對今年剩餘期間的可見度,以及 Brazos Midland 資產的納入。

  • We now expect a 2026 net income midpoint of $4.18 billion and adjusted EBITDA midpoint of approximately $8.55 billion. This represents a $200 million increase in our adjusted EBITDA midpoint compared with the guidance we provided last quarter and a $450 million increase compared with our original February guidance. Of this quarter's $200 million increase, approximately $50 million reflects transaction-related benefits I just described.

    我們目前預期 2026 年淨利中位數為 41.8 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 中位數約為 85.5 億美元。這代表相較於上季提供的指引,我們的調整後 EBITDA 中位數上調 2 億美元;相較於 2 月最初指引則上調 4.5 億美元。在本季上調的 2 億美元中,約 5,000 萬美元反映我剛才所述的交易相關利益。

  • Approximately $75 million reflects the expected 2026 contribution from the Brazos assets, which is offset then by $25 million of transaction costs, and the remaining $100 million reflects stronger performance across our base businesses. This year, we've been somewhat conservative with guidance due to the geopolitical volatility.

    約 7,500 萬美元反映 Brazos 資產在 2026 年的預期貢獻,但其中會被 2,500 萬美元的交易成本所抵銷;其餘 1 億美元則反映我們基礎業務整體表現更強。今年由於地緣政治波動,我們在指引上採取了相對保守的態度。

  • If commodity conditions remain consistent with where they are today, we will have a very good tailwind in the fourth quarter and into 2027. That takes me to our hedging program. As the back end of the commodity forward curve has risen throughout the year, we've increased our hedging position into 2027 at a greater percentage and at higher prices than 2026. We continue to programmatically hedge commodity exposures.

    若商品市場條件維持在目前水準,我們在第四季以及進入 2027 年將會有非常有利的順風。接著談到我們的避險計畫。隨著今年商品遠期曲線後端走升,我們提高了延伸至 2027 年的避險比重,且避險價格也高於 2026 年。我們持續以制度化方式對商品曝險進行避險。

  • On capital expenditures, we stated on the second quarter earnings call, we expected to approach the high end of our guidance range or $3.2 billion. We now expect 2026 capital expenditures to total approximately $3.5 billion due primarily to $200 million of capital associated with the Brazos acquisition, along with added growth projects such as the Cutter 2 plant, our Delaware NGL expansion and compression pulled into '26 from '27 due to Bakken and Mid-Continent activity levels.

    在資本支出方面,我們在第二季財報電話會議中表示,預期將接近指引區間上緣,即 32 億美元。我們目前預期 2026 年資本支出總額約為 35 億美元,主要因 Brazos 收購相關的 2 億美元資本支出;此外也包含新增的成長專案,例如 Cutter 2 廠、我們在 Delaware 的 NGL 擴建,以及因 Bakken 與 Mid-Continent 活動水準而由 2027 年提前至 2026 年的壓縮設備投資。

  • From a balance sheet perspective, we extinguished nearly $5.5 billion of debt in September, following completion of the $9 billion Apollo minority equity investment. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings upgraded our credit ratings to BBB+ with a stable outlook following these transactions.

    就資產負債表而言,在完成 90 億美元 Apollo 少數股權投資後,我們於 9 月清償近 55 億美元的債務。在這些交易完成後,標普全球評等與惠譽評等均將我們的信用評等上調至 BBB+,展望穩定。

  • With these actions complete, we are operating with a stronger balance sheet. And now I want to spend a moment on our leverage framework because it's an area we've received a number of questions. Our debt-to-EBITDA target going forward is approximately 3.25 times or lower, and the lower matters. This is not guidance.

    在完成這些行動後,我們以更強健的資產負債表在營運。接下來我想花點時間談談我們的槓桿框架,因為這是我們收到不少問題的領域。我們未來的負債對 EBITDA 目標約為 3.25 倍或更低,而「更低」這點很重要。這不是指引。

  • It reflects a change in philosophy. We intend to operate the company with lower leverage than our previous target of approximately 3.5 times. As modeled today, we would expect to go below 3 times within the next few years. However, our commercial team continues to find highly attractive projects, which we expect will increase our capital expenditures over the next few years. We now have the financial flexibility to execute on those capital expenditures and still maintain a strong balance sheet.

    這反映的是理念上的改變。我們打算以較低槓桿來營運公司,低於先前約 3.5 倍的目標。以目前模型推估,我們預期在未來幾年內會降至 3 倍以下。然而,我們的商務團隊仍持續發掘極具吸引力的專案,我們預期這將在未來幾年提高資本支出。我們現在具備財務彈性,可執行這些資本支出,同時仍維持強健的資產負債表。

  • We now view 3.5 times as the upper end of our targeted leverage range. The gap between where we expect to operate and that ceiling is intentional. It gives us meaningful flexibility through business and commodity cycles and the capacity to act if a compelling opportunity comes along that clearly meets our return thresholds. That's optionality, not a plan.

    我們現在將 3.5 倍視為我們目標槓桿區間的上緣。我們預期的營運水準與該上限之間的差距是刻意保留的。這讓我們在景氣與商品循環中具備實質彈性,並在出現明確符合我們報酬門檻的具吸引力機會時,有能力採取行動。這是選擇權,而不是計畫。

  • Our base case remains disciplined deleveraging while we continue to fund attractive growth and return capital projects and capital return to shareholders. That includes our dividend and the capacity for share repurchases. From a cash tax perspective, the Brazos Midland acquisition is expected to extend our runway by another year, deferring meaningful cash tax payments until 2032 from previously 2031.

    我們的基本情境仍是有紀律地去槓桿,同時持續投入具吸引力的成長與資本回報專案,並向股東返還資本。其中包括我們的股利,以及進行庫藏股回購的能力。從現金稅負角度來看,預期 Brazos Midland 收購案將把我們的緩衝期再延長一年,將原先預計於 2031 年開始出現的重大現金稅款支付,延後至 2032 年。

  • I'll now turn it over to Randy for an operational and project update.

    接下來我把時間交給 Randy,請他提供營運與專案更新。

  • Randy Lentz - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Randy Lentz - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Walt. Our teams continue to execute safely and reliably during the third quarter while advancing growth projects across the system. During the quarter, we completed our Denver area refined products pipeline expansion, adding 35,000 barrels per day of capacity.

    謝謝你,Walt。我們的團隊在第三季持續以安全且可靠的方式執行,同時推進全系統的成長專案。本季我們完成了丹佛地區成品油管線擴建,新增每日 35,000 桶的運能。

  • Demand has been encouraging, and we're beginning to evaluate further expansion opportunities. We also completed 110 million cubic feet per day of processing expansions in the Delaware Basin and are already seeing incremental volume with a continued ramp-up to capacity in early 2027.

    需求表現令人鼓舞,我們也開始評估進一步擴建的機會。我們也在德拉瓦盆地完成每日 1.10 億立方英尺的處理擴建,且已看到增量量能,並預期在 2027 年初持續爬坡至滿載。

  • In the fourth quarter, Medford Phase 1, Cutter 1 and Cassidy 1 are all expected to enter service, providing additional fractionation and processing capacity across the Mid-Continent, Powder River and Permian. Then in 2027, Bighorn adds 400 million cubic feet per day of processing capacity in the Delaware.

    在第四季,Medford 第 1 期、Cutter 1 與 Cassidy 1 預計都將投入服務,為中部地區(Mid-Continent)、粉河盆地(Powder River)與二疊紀(Permian)提供額外的分餾與處理產能。接著在 2027 年,Bighorn 將在德拉瓦新增每日 4.00 億立方英尺的處理產能。

  • Cassidy 2 adds another approximately 330 million cubic feet per day of capacity in the Midland and our Delaware NGL expansion adds 245,000 barrels per day of takeaway capacity. That expansion added this year supports growing Delaware volumes and connectivity with our West Texas NGL pipeline.

    Cassidy 2 將在米德蘭(Midland)再新增約每日 3.30 億立方英尺的產能,而我們的德拉瓦 NGL 擴建將新增每日 245,000 桶的外運(takeaway)能力。今年新增的這項擴建可支援德拉瓦量能成長,並強化與我們西德州 NGL 管線的連通性。

  • The acquisition of Brazos Midland assets also expands our opportunity set considerably. We're already advancing connections between Brazos and our legacy ONEOK system, which we expect will improve capital efficiency and commercial flexibility as we continue Midland Basin growth. Beyond what we've announced, we continue to see a growing set of opportunities across multiple products and regions, providing several pathways for continued organic growth.

    收購 Brazos Midland 資產也大幅擴大了我們的機會集合。我們已在推進 Brazos 與我們既有 ONEOK 系統之間的連接,預期這將在我們持續推動米德蘭盆地成長的同時,提升資本效率與商業彈性。除已公告事項外,我們仍持續看到跨多種產品與區域的機會組合正在擴大,為持續的有機成長提供多條路徑。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Sheridan for a commercial update.

    接下來我把電話會議交給 Sheridan,請他提供商務更新。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Randy. Third quarter commercial activity was strong, driven by customer demand and volume growth across key portions of our system. Starting with the Natural Gas Liquids segment. Total raw feed throughput increased 6% year-over-year to nearly 1.7 million barrels per day.

    謝謝你,Randy。第三季商務活動強勁,主要受客戶需求與我們系統關鍵區段的量能成長所帶動。先從天然氣液(NGL)事業部開始。原料總處理量(raw feed throughput)年增 6%,接近每日 170 萬桶。

  • Our largest volume growth was in the Gulf Coast Permian region, where volumes increased 16% year-over-year and 9% compared with the second quarter, with nearly all of the increase from West Texas. Volumes continue to benefit from increasing producer activity, recently connected third-party plants and additional natural gas egress out of the basin.

    我們最大的量能成長來自墨西哥灣沿岸二疊紀區域(Gulf Coast Permian),該區量能年增 16%,較第二季增加 9%,且幾乎全部增量來自西德州。量能持續受益於生產商活動增加、近期連接的第三方工廠,以及盆地外運天然氣能力的提升。

  • Propane plus volumes increased both year-over-year and sequentially across all of our operating regions, driven by continued producer activity. Ethane recovery remained attractive across most of our system, supported by strong domestic and international petrochemical demand. We saw modestly higher rejection in the Rockies and Mid-Continent following strong recovery levels in the second quarter, while Permian economics continue to favor full recovery.

    丙烷加值(propane plus)量能在我們所有營運區域皆呈現年增與季增,主要由生產商活動持續推動。在強勁的國內與國際石化需求支撐下,我們系統多數區域的乙烷回收仍具吸引力。在第二季回收水準強勁之後,我們看到落磯山脈與中部地區的拒收(rejection)略有上升;而二疊紀的經濟性仍偏向全量回收。

  • Our fractionators are highly utilized as we work toward the completion of Medford Phase 1, which we expect in mid-December. Until then, we're continuing to build inventory of unfractionated NGLs, which defer the timing of the associated earnings from these NGLs. As Medford comes online, we will begin working through that inventory and recognize the associated earnings, primarily in the first quarter of 2027. We expect this to give us a built-in earnings benefit early next year.

    在我們朝 Medford 第 1 期完工推進之際(預期於 12 月中旬),我們的分餾設備維持高稼動率。在此之前,我們將持續建立未分餾 NGL 庫存,這會延後這些 NGL 所對應獲利的認列時點。隨著 Medford 上線,我們將開始消化該庫存並認列相關獲利,主要落在 2027 年第一季。我們預期這將在明年初帶來內建的獲利助益。

  • Turning to the Refined Products and Crude segment. Refined Products volumes increased 6% year-over-year, including 10% growth in gasoline and 2% in distillates, supported by solid demand and high refining utilization across our footprint. Based on our year-to-date performance, we expect refined products volumes to finish the year near the top end of our original guidance range.

    接著看成品油與原油事業部。成品油量能年增 6%,其中汽油成長 10%、中間餾分油(distillates)成長 2%,受我們營運版圖內穩健需求與高煉油稼動率支撐。基於今年迄今的表現,我們預期成品油量能全年將接近原先指引區間的上緣。

  • Our connectivity and marketing capabilities also let us capture regional opportunities as wide Mid-Continent to Gulf Coast basis differentials and low inventories created price volatility. Midyear tariff adjustments added a further benefit. Liquid blending also performed well. Increased gasoline throughput and the completion of synergy projects contributed to higher blending volumes during the quarter.

    我們的連通性與行銷能力也讓我們能掌握區域性機會;當中部地區到墨西哥灣沿岸的基差(basis)價差擴大且庫存偏低引發價格波動時,我們得以受益。年中運費(tariff)調整也帶來額外助益。液體調和(liquid blending)表現同樣良好。汽油處理量增加以及協同專案完成,帶動本季調和量提升。

  • We entered the fall season approximately 75% hedged and unhedged September spot margins provided additional upside. Historically, wide spreads have allowed us to lock in favorable blending margins throughout 2027 further out than we typically would. Export demand has also remained strong, with Refined Products volumes at Galena Park up approximately 15% year-over-year.

    我們在進入秋季時約有 75% 已進行避險,而 9 月未避險的現貨利差(spot margins)提供了額外上行空間。歷史上,價差擴大使我們能在 2027 年期間、以比我們通常更遠的期限鎖定有利的調和利差。出口需求也維持強勁,Galena Park 的成品油量能年增約 15%。

  • Crude oil exports at Seabrook remain fully contracted with third quarter throughput approximately doubling the prior year period. In our higher-margin crude gathering business, we expect full year volumes to increase approximately 7%, supported by Midland producer activity averaging nearly 40 rigs on our dedicated acreage.

    Seabrook 的原油出口仍維持全數簽約(fully contracted),第三季處理量約為去年同期的兩倍。在我們利潤率較高的原油集輸(gathering)業務中,我們預期全年量能將增加約 7%,主要受米德蘭生產商活動支撐;在我們專屬租地(dedicated acreage)上的平均鑽機數接近 40 座。

  • Moving to the Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment. Volumes increased all three regions compared with the second quarter, led by record volumes in the Permian Basin. Volumes are higher across both the Midland and Delaware Basins in the Permian, led by growth in the Delaware following completions of our processing expansions.

    再看天然氣集輸與處理事業部。三個區域的量能相較第二季皆增加,其中以二疊紀盆地創紀錄的量能領先。二疊紀的米德蘭與德拉瓦兩個盆地量能均上升;其中德拉瓦在我們處理擴建完工後帶動成長更為明顯。

  • Across our dedicated Permian acreage, we have approximately 21 rigs, including 17 in the Midland Basin and 4 in the Delaware. The addition of the Brazos asset substantially expands our Midland opportunity with a long runway of high-quality drilling inventory and greater connectivity across the combined system.

    在我們二疊紀的專屬租地上,目前約有 21 座鑽機,包括米德蘭盆地 17 座、德拉瓦 4 座。新增 Brazos 資產大幅擴大我們在米德蘭的機會,提供長期且高品質的鑽探庫存跑道,並提升合併後系統的整體連通性。

  • Importantly, what we've seen since announcing the transactions continue to support our acquisition assumptions. Based on current producer plans, we expect an average of approximately 14 rigs on the Brazos Midland dedicated acreage during 2027. Producers are also encouraged by early Barnett results, including well performance and drilling and completion efficiencies, which are supporting increased development activity and a higher volume outlook.

    重要的是,自我們宣布交易以來所見到的情況,持續支持我們對收購案的假設。根據目前生產商規劃,我們預期 2027 年在 Brazos Midland 專屬租地上的平均鑽機數約為 14 座。生產商也受到 Barnett 早期成果的鼓舞,包括井況表現以及鑽探與完井效率,這些因素正支撐更高的開發活動與更高的量能展望。

  • As we sit today, the current Brazos Sundance plants are full and volumes on the Brazos assets are above our expectations for this point in the year. We expect the continued volume ramp will be enough to fill Cassidy 1, which comes online at year-end. The larger combined system gives us flexibility to optimize the timing and location of that next expansion.

    就目前而言,現有的 Brazos Sundance 工廠已滿載,且 Brazos 資產的量能高於我們在今年此時點的預期。我們預期持續的量能爬坡將足以填滿年底上線的 Cassidy 1。更大的合併系統也讓我們能更有彈性地優化下一次擴建的時點與地點。

  • Outside the Permian, Rockies processing volumes increased 3% from the second quarter, and we're encouraged by activity in the area. Since March, Williston Basin rigs are up approximately 50% and rigs on our dedicated acreage have doubled to 16, approaching 2024 and early 2025 levels.

    在二疊紀以外,落磯山脈的處理量較第二季增加 3%,我們對該區活動感到鼓舞。自 3 月以來,威利斯頓盆地(Williston Basin)鑽機數約增加 50%,而我們專屬租地上的鑽機數已翻倍至 16 座,接近 2024 年及 2025 年初的水準。

  • The higher activity reinforces a stable, durable volume base and with our infrastructure already in place, incremental volumes translate directly into very attractive cash flow. In the Powder River Basin, initial well performance around the Cutter plant have exceeded producer expectations, and we expect volume to ramp with planned completions in the fourth quarter and throughout 2027.

    較高的活動度強化了穩定且具韌性的量能基礎;且由於我們的基礎設施已就位,增量量能可直接轉化為非常具吸引力的現金流。在粉河盆地(Powder River Basin),Cutter 工廠周邊的初期井況表現超出生產商預期,我們預期隨著第四季及 2027 年全年的計畫完井,量能將逐步爬升。

  • In the Mid-Continent, growth continues across our Oklahoma system, driven by activity in both the Cherokee and STACK formations and several gathering expansions are underway to support further growth into 2027. There are currently 17 rigs on our dedicated acreage. Overall, producers remain disciplined, but current 2027 plans reflect increased activity and our conversations remain constructive.

    在美國中部地區,我們奧克拉荷馬系統的成長仍在持續,主要由切羅基(Cherokee)與 STACK 地層的活動所帶動,且為支援至 2027 年的進一步成長,目前正進行多項集輸(gathering)擴建工程。目前在我們專屬租地上共有 17 座鑽機在運作。整體而言,生產商仍維持紀律,但目前的 2027 年計畫反映活動增加,我們的對話也持續正向建設性。

  • I'll close with the Natural Gas Pipelines, where third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $231 million, up from $200 million a year ago, benefiting from higher optimization and marketing activity and higher firm transportation revenues. As expected, the Waha to Katy opportunity moderated sequentially as additional Permian egress entered service and price differentials narrowed.

    最後我以天然氣管線業務作結:第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.31 億美元,高於去年同期的 2.00 億美元,主要受惠於更高的最佳化與行銷活動,以及更高的固定運輸(firm transportation)收入。如預期,Waha 至 Katy 的機會相較前一季有所降溫,因更多二疊紀外運管道投運,價差收斂。

  • We expect a further reduction in the fourth quarter, which is already reflected in our guidance. Longer-term natural gas demand continues to provide significant opportunities. Last quarter, we announced we had been awarded a supply agreement for 1 gigawatt of power plant demand. This project includes a 10-year firm transportation agreement for 250 million cubic feet per day of natural gas and is expected to be in service in late 2030.

    我們預期第四季將進一步下滑,而這已反映在我們的財測指引中。從長期來看,天然氣需求仍持續帶來顯著機會。上季我們宣布已獲得一項供應協議,對應 1 吉瓦的電廠用電需求。該專案包含一份為期 10 年、每日 2.5 億立方英尺天然氣的固定運輸合約,預計於 2030 年底投入服務。

  • Additionally, we've been awarded another agreement to supply 110 million cubic feet per day for a 500-megawatt power plant expansion, which will go into effect in May 2028. These attractive return projects are good examples of the opportunities we are pursuing across our pipeline network, and we expect to announce additional projects as discussions advance.

    此外,我們也獲得另一項協議,為一座 500 兆瓦電廠擴建案供應每日 1.1 億立方英尺天然氣,並將於 2028 年 5 月生效。這些具吸引力報酬的專案,是我們在整體管線網路上所追求機會的良好例證;隨著討論推進,我們預期將宣布更多專案。

  • Pierce, that concludes my remarks.

    Pierce,我的發言到此結束。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Walt and Randy and Sheridan for that -- those updates. As I look back at the first nine months of this year, the progress that we have made is significant. We've increased guidance 3 times, significantly strengthened the balance sheet, expanded our position and scale in the Permian Basin, completed significant organic projects with additional projects approaching startup, and we're seeing constructive volume trends and producer activity across our footprint.

    謝謝你,Walt、Randy 和 Sheridan,提供這些更新。回顧今年前九個月,我們取得的進展相當顯著。我們已三度上調財測指引,大幅強化資產負債表,擴大我們在二疊紀盆地的布局與規模,完成多項重要的自建(organic)專案且另有專案即將啟動投運,同時我們也看到在我們營運版圖內,量能趨勢與生產商活動呈現正向發展。

  • Most importantly, though, those accomplishments, along with constructive producer plans and our hedging program, give us momentum and visibility as we enter 2027. At the same time, the broader need for reliable US energy infrastructure continues to grow. The energy landscape will remain dynamic. Our goal isn't to predict every geopolitical event or commodity price movement. It's to position ONEOK to perform through them.

    但最重要的是,這些成果,加上生產商具建設性的計畫以及我們的避險方案,使我們在邁入 2027 年時具備動能與能見度。同時,市場對可靠的美國能源基礎設施之整體需求仍在成長。能源版圖將持續動態變化。我們的目標不是去預測每一個地緣政治事件或商品價格波動。而是讓 ONEOK 能在各種情境下都能表現出色。

  • And we believe our scale, asset connectivity, financial flexibility and customer relationships give us the ability to do just that. We believe ONEOK will enter 2027 from a position of strength with a clear inventory of growth opportunities and the infrastructure required to help connect essential US energy resources with the growing demand. And as always, none of this happens without our employees. I want to thank them for their continued commitment to safety, reliability, innovation and to serve customers.

    我們相信,我們的規模、資產連結性、財務彈性與客戶關係,使我們具備做到這一點的能力。我們相信 ONEOK 將以強勢姿態邁入 2027 年,擁有清晰的成長機會庫存,以及能協助把美國關鍵能源資源與不斷成長的需求連結起來所需的基礎設施。一如既往,這一切都離不開我們的員工。我要感謝他們持續致力於安全、可靠、創新,以及服務客戶。

  • Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

    接線員,我們現在準備開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    Citi 的 Spiro Dounis。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • I want to start off with new projects. Walt, you mentioned commercial teams working on some new opportunities here. Curious if you can expand and maybe give us a sense of what regions or commodities you're seeing the most activity and where that capital is likely to get allocated?

    我想先從新專案談起。Walt,你提到商務團隊正在推進一些新的機會。想請你再多展開一些,能否讓我們了解你們在哪些區域或商品上看到最活躍的動能,以及資本最可能配置到哪些方向?

  • And just to add on, Pierce, I noticed you added some commentary on the natural gas side. Sheridan seemed to support that with some of these data center projects. So curious if we can expect gas to maybe get a higher allocation than has historically been the case and if $3 billion plus is a good run rate to use from here on CapEx.

    另外補充一下,Pierce,我注意到你在天然氣方面增加了一些評論。Sheridan 似乎也以一些資料中心專案來支持這點。因此想請教,我們是否可以預期天然氣的資本配置占比可能高於過往的歷史水準?以及未來資本支出(CapEx)以 30 億美元以上作為合理的常態水準是否合適?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. This is Sheridan. I would say as we start thinking about where we're going to see growth in CapEx and growth across our system is obviously we'll start in the Permian, where volumes are strong, growing strong.

    是的。我是 Sheridan。我會說,當我們開始思考資本支出成長以及整體系統的成長會出現在哪裡時,顯然會先從二疊紀開始,那裡的量能很強、成長也很強。

  • We already have quite a bit of processing capacity come online. We see the runway that we will be adding more processing capacity in the future. So that's going to create more opportunity for the NGL business as well. So we think we'll see a lot in the NGL in the Gathering and Processing segment in the Permian.

    我們已經有相當多的處理(processing)產能上線。我們也看到未來仍有空間持續新增更多處理產能。因此也會為 NGL 業務創造更多機會。所以我們認為,在二疊紀的集輸與處理(Gathering and Processing)部門,NGL 方面會看到很多機會。

  • We're also seeing some opportunities in the Mid-Continent. We continue to see that grow. Volumes are up strong. We could have some allocation of capital into the Mid-Continent area. As you start thinking about refined products, we've seen a big pull of volume -- export volume that's changing the dynamics on our system.

    我們在美國中部地區也看到一些機會。我們持續看到那裡成長。量能大幅上升。我們可能會在美國中部地區配置部分資本。當你開始思考成品油(refined products)時,我們看到大量量能被拉走——出口量的變化正在改變我們系統上的動態。

  • We could see some optimization opportunities or being able to increase our capacity between the Gulf Coast and the Mid-Continent be an opportunity. We're also looking to expand the Denver pipeline that came up this year, completely fully contracted. Commercial teams are working with other people to see about the opportunity to expand that system as we continue to go forward.

    我們可能會看到一些最佳化機會,或是提升我們在墨西哥灣沿岸與美國中部之間的運輸能力,這可能是一個機會。我們也在評估擴建今年投運的丹佛管線,該管線目前已完全簽約(fully contracted)。商務團隊正與其他方合作,評估在未來持續推進時擴建該系統的機會。

  • And then obviously, the data centers. We continue to be in discussions with a large number of data centers. A lot of them continue to advance. Last quarter, we announced one. This quarter, we're announcing another one. The teams are on the edge on a couple of other really nice projects as well.

    再來當然是資料中心。我們仍在與大量資料中心進行討論。其中許多仍在持續推進。上季我們宣布了一個。這一季我們再宣布另一個。團隊在另外幾個非常不錯的專案上也已接近臨門一腳。

  • So we will see some area from power demand going forward on the natural gas pipe. So really, when we think about capital and the capital we're looking about across our footprint, it's in all the segments as we go forward. It's not really concentrated in one area or the other.

    因此,未來在天然氣管線方面,我們會看到來自電力需求的一些機會。所以整體而言,當我們思考資本以及我們在整個營運版圖上所評估的資本配置時,會涵蓋所有業務部門。並不會特別集中在某一個領域。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Spiro, this is Pierce. The only thing I'd add to that is much of the gas that we move is going to be feeding LNG facilities as well as the electric generation, either for utilities or for AI data centers. It comes with liquids.

    Spiro,我是 Pierce。我唯一想補充的是,我們輸送的天然氣有很大一部分將供應 LNG 設施,以及電力發電端——不論是公用事業或 AI 資料中心。而且它會伴隨液體(liquids)。

  • And so the gas demand that we see also will increase the gathering and the processing opportunities that we have along with moving the liquids associated with those gathering and processing plants and the fractionation facilities, and it gives us more blending opportunities with those products into our RPC business. So it touches all phases of our business.

    因此,我們看到的天然氣需求也會帶動我們在集輸與處理方面的機會,同時也會增加我們對這些集輸與處理廠以及分餾(fractionation)設施所產生之伴生液體的輸送量,並為我們在 RPC 業務中把這些產品進行調和(blending)提供更多機會。所以它會觸及我們業務的各個環節。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful color. Second question, moving to NGL volumes, tracking to be above the high end of your guidance this year, but you did see some volumes come in quarter-over-quarter in the Rockies and Mid-Con, Sheridan, and I suspect that was really a function of ethane rejection, but maybe would appreciate more color there and how you're seeing the rest of the year shape up.

    了解。這些補充很有幫助。第二個問題轉到 NGL 量能:今年看起來會高於你們指引區間的上緣,但 Sheridan,你們確實看到洛磯山區與美國中部的量能季對季有所回落;我猜這主要是乙烷拒收(ethane rejection)的影響,但希望你能再多提供一些背景,以及你們如何看待今年剩餘時間的走勢。

  • And if you could maybe just talk through what changes when Medford comes online? Is there an easy way to sort of quantify the impact of storing all these NGLs and how quickly you'd expect Medford to fill up?

    另外,你能否也說明一下 Medford 上線後會有哪些變化?是否有比較簡單的方法可以量化儲存這些 NGL 的影響,以及你們預期 Medford 會以多快的速度被填滿?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I think -- Spiro, you're exactly right. The little bit of fall off we saw in the Rocky Mountains and Mid-Continent where the NGLs was all ethane. As I said in my remarks, the C3+ volume is actually up. So that the underlying growth is strong there. There's a little bit more ethane rejection. Some of that is on our own cost coming out of the Bakken that we dialed back our incentivized ethane a little bit just due to the market conditions we're seeing right now.

    是的。我認為——Spiro,你說得完全正確。我們在落磯山脈與中部大陸地區看到的些微下滑,NGL 主要都是乙烷。如我在發言中提到的,C3+ 的量其實是增加的。因此,那裡的基本面成長仍然強勁。乙烷回收(rejection)稍微多了一些。其中一部分是我們自有成本端的調整,來自巴肯(Bakken)的部分,我們因應目前看到的市場狀況,把激勵性乙烷(incentivized ethane)稍微下調了一點。

  • As we continue to move forward on NGLs, we continue to see growth. And a lot of that growth is going to come out of the Permian is where we'll see a significant amount of that growth going forward as we continue to ramp up our natural gas gathering and processing assets out there in the area. So we see going forward.

    隨著我們持續推進 NGL 業務,我們仍然看到成長。而這些成長有很大一部分將來自二疊紀(Permian);隨著我們在該區域持續擴建天然氣集輸與處理資產,未來我們會在那裡看到相當可觀的成長。所以我們對未來的走勢是這樣看。

  • Now when Medford comes up, the impact of Medford is because we do have raw feed that is in storage today, obviously, we have more raw feed coming to our system than our current fractionators can handle. Medford will come up completely full for a period of time as we work off that raw feed and inventory.

    現在,當 Medford 上線時,Medford 的影響在於:我們目前確實有原料(raw feed)存放在庫存中;顯然,我們進入系統的原料量多於現有分餾裝置(fractionators)所能處理的量。在我們消化這些原料與庫存的期間,Medford 會在一段時間內以滿載運行。

  • So both Phase 1 and Phase 2 will be full for a period of time going forward. But then we'll be able to leverage that into growth after that's worked down that growth coming out of the Permian that we see as we bring on the Brazos plants continue to fill our legacy ONEOK plants out there going forward.

    因此,第一期與第二期在未來一段時間內都會是滿載。但在把這些庫存消化下來之後,我們就能把它轉化為成長動能——也就是我們在二疊紀看到的那股成長;隨著 Brazos 的工廠投產,並持續把當地既有的 ONEOK 工廠填滿,未來就會帶動更多成長。

  • As Randy said, we've already -- we are in the process of tying Brazos and the legacy ONEOK Midland systems together, which we will be able to remove volume that we're doing on third parties today. We have offloads in our G&P Midland system today, third parties, we'll be able to bring that into our own plants and create more NGLs, which will be able to fractionate through Medford going forward.

    如 Randy 所說,我們已經——我們正在把 Brazos 與既有的 ONEOK Midland 系統連接起來,如此一來就能把我們目前交由第三方處理的量移回來。我們在 Midland 的集輸與處理(G&P)系統目前有一些外送(offloads)給第三方;未來我們能把這些量導入自家工廠、產出更多 NGL,並在未來透過 Medford 進行分餾。

  • When we put Medford -- when we actually came out with Medford, we had said that we had not subscribed 100% of that capacity because it was a lower cost fractionator. If it was a brownfield fractionator, we didn't need to subscribe all of the capacity. So that we had additional operating leverage that we could continue to contract. The commercial team has continued to contract as we've gone through this build phase.

    當我們提出 Medford——當我們實際公布 Medford 時,我們曾說過並未把該產能 100% 全部簽約,因為它是一座低成本的分餾裝置。如果是棕地(brownfield)分餾裝置,我們不需要把所有產能都先行簽約。因此我們保留了額外的營運槓桿,後續可以持續對外簽約。商務團隊在這段建設期也持續推進簽約。

  • We still have capacity that is uncontracted today, but that is a lot less than we had before. And we think that gives us a lot of leverage to be able to contract even more third-party volumes as we have done with our Delaware expansion.

    我們目前仍有部分產能尚未簽約,但比起之前已少很多。我們認為這讓我們有很大的槓桿,可以像我們在 Delaware 擴建案所做的一樣,去承接並簽下更多第三方量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Jeremy.

    早安,Jeremy。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Just want to touch on the guide for '26, if I could a bit. And if we're looking at it right, it seems like it implies 4Q doesn't really move up versus 3Q in any meaningful fashion. And that would even be with the Brazos contribution. So just wondering if you could talk a bit more gives and takes in the fourth quarter, think of it as maybe seasonally a bit stronger as well. Is that conservatism? Or are there other elements at play here?

    我想稍微談一下 2026 年的指引,如果可以的話。如果我們理解沒錯,看起來它暗示第四季相較第三季並沒有明顯上升。而這甚至是在納入 Brazos 貢獻的情況下。所以想請你多談談第四季的利多與利空;一般來說第四季也可能季節性稍強一些。這是保守估計嗎?還是還有其他因素在影響?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Jeremy, this is Walt. As I said in our remarks, we have remained cautious throughout the year, just given the whole geopolitical situation. If everything stays like we are today, we are probably on the conservative side, and you could expect a nice tailwind that will be in the fourth quarter and with the rig activity that we're seeing now really continue into 2027 pretty strong.

    Jeremy,我是 Walt。如我在發言中提到的,基於整體地緣政治情勢,我們今年一直維持審慎。如果一切都維持在我們今天看到的狀態,我們可能確實偏保守;你可以預期第四季會有不錯的順風,而且以我們目前看到的鑽機活動(rig activity)來看,這股動能很可能會延續到 2027 年,表現相當強勁。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe just moving over towards the fractionation side, picking up a bit more on the comments you said. It seems like Medford would bring a lot of optimization opportunities or flexibility to the system.

    了解。那接著轉到分餾端,延伸你剛才的評論。看起來 Medford 會為系統帶來很多最佳化機會或彈性。

  • But then even if I look at the NGL raw supply that you guys have versus fractionation capacity, it still seems maybe the system is a little bit short and could need some more fractionation build-out, particularly when you're thinking about all the processing plant additions and the dock and export coming up here. Just wondering how you think about that growth opportunity.

    但即便我看你們的 NGL 原料供給相對於分餾產能,系統似乎仍然有點偏緊,可能需要再擴建一些分餾能力,特別是考量到所有處理廠新增,以及碼頭與出口即將上線。想請問你們如何看待這個成長機會?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, remind -- yes, we watch that very closely, Jeremy, to understand where it is. Now remember, not all the volume you see that we report, we fractionate, some of that we just transport on that. But what I would say we do have a little bit extra capacity in Medford, and we do have MB-7 that's already permitted. And then we're just trying to understand when the right time is that we FID that to be able to make sure we have fractionation capacity for our growing gas processing plants.

    是的——提醒一下——是的,Jeremy,我們非常密切地關注這點,以了解目前的位置。另外要記得,我們所揭露的量並非全部都由我們分餾,其中有一部分我們只是做運輸。但我想說的是,Medford 的確還有一些額外產能,而且 MB-7 也已經取得許可。接下來我們要做的是判斷在什麼時點做出最終投資決策(FID),以確保我們成長中的天然氣處理廠有足夠的分餾產能。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. Understood. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

    了解。明白了。我就先到這裡。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    Manav Gupta,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning. I actually just wanted to go back to Brazos and ask you about now that you have had some look at these assets, are they actually meeting your expectations? Where are the areas where you think actually there could be some upside here? If you could give us an update on how you're thinking about the synergies now that you have had some chance to look at these assets at a closer look? That's my first question.

    早安。我其實想回到 Brazos,問一下:現在你們已經有機會看過這些資產,它們是否符合你們的預期?你們認為有哪些地方可能會有上行空間?另外,既然你們已經有機會更深入地檢視這些資產,可否更新一下你們目前對協同效益(synergies)的看法?這是我的第一個問題。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. What I would say is that we are very, very satisfied with what we've seen with Brazos. I mean, as I mentioned in my remarks, that volumes are above our expectations at this time of the year, at this time in the process, and we -- nothing tells us that they're not going to continue to be above our expectations as we move into 2027.

    是的。我想說的是,我們對 Brazos 目前看到的表現非常、非常滿意。我的意思是,如我在發言中提到的,以一年中的這個時間點、以整個整合流程的這個階段來看,量已經高於我們的預期;而且目前沒有任何跡象顯示,隨著我們邁入 2027 年,它們不會持續高於我們的預期。

  • The assets in general, we have found them -- we've been very pleased with the assets in general. They put some very big pipelines in their area. They didn't just build enough what they had. They do a lot of things like we did. They upsized their pipelines, and that's given us a lot of capital synergies immediately.

    整體而言,我們發現這些資產——我們對這些資產整體非常滿意。他們在其區域鋪設了一些非常大型的管線。他們並不是只建到剛好夠用。他們做了很多跟我們一樣的事情。他們把管線做了加大(upsized),這讓我們立刻獲得了大量的資本協同效益。

  • We actually were going to have to expand one of our main lines on our system on our legacy ONEOK gathering and processing system. But because Brazos overbuilt this system, we're immediately able to access that capacity and save that capital. And that continues to happen going forward as we look at it. As we get these plants up, we're very pleased at how well they built the plant, the redundancy they put in there. They built them like we would. They built them to last.

    我們原本其實需要在既有 ONEOK 集輸與處理系統中,擴建系統上的一條主要幹線。但因為 Brazos 在這個系統上做了超前建設(overbuilt),我們立刻就能使用那部分產能,並節省那筆資本支出。而且隨著我們持續檢視,未來也會持續出現類似情況。當我們把這些工廠拉起來時,我們對他們的建廠品質、以及他們設計的備援(redundancy)程度都非常滿意。他們是用我們會採用的方式來建。他們把它們建成耐用、可長期運行的資產。

  • As we continue, as I talked about on the volumes, we continue to talk to producers, producers get more and more excited about the Barnett and what it means, the efficiencies and as they get better at it, the volumes exceeding their expectations per well. So right now, Brazos is probably hitting on all cylinders of what we expected to. We're very pleased with what we've seen so far.

    隨著我們持續推進——如我在談到量時所說——我們持續與生產商溝通;生產商對 Barnett 及其意涵愈來愈興奮,包括效率提升;而且隨著他們操作愈來愈熟練,每口井的產量也超出他們的預期。所以目前來看,Brazos 幾乎在我們原先期待的各方面都表現得非常到位。我們對目前看到的成果非常滿意。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And this is Pierce. I can't emphasize enough Sheridan's last comments about the quality of the way these assets have been built. Randy and I both background is in the construction of these kind of things. And I can walk around that plant and tell that they've addressed a lot of the things that I've seen as problems in the past with other companies and other assets. And I think they built them for reliability and resiliency. So I'm very, very pleased with the quality of the assets that we picked up.

    我是Pierce。我再怎麼強調都不為過,Sheridan剛才最後談到這些資產建造品質的評論非常到位。Randy和我兩人的背景都在這類設施的建造上。我走在那座工廠裡就能看得出來,他們已經處理了許多我過去在其他公司與其他資產上看過的問題。我認為他們是以可靠性與韌性為目標來建造的。所以我對我們收購到的資產品質非常、非常滿意。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Perfect. My very quick follow-up here is we noticed in the slide deck, the Delaware NGL expansion of 245,000. And we also know you have the processing plant at Bighorn coming around like 400,000 (sic -- 400 million) somewhere in 2Q, and this new expansion is 3Q. So can you talk a little bit about are these two projects in some form complementary to each other?

    很好。我這邊很快追問一下:我們注意到簡報裡提到Delaware的NGL擴建規模為245,000。我們也知道你們在Bighorn的處理廠大概在第二季某個時間點會上線,規模約400,000(原文誤述—應為4億),而這次新的擴建是在第三季。所以能否談談,這兩個專案在某種程度上是否互補?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • They are a little bit, but really this expansion that we're doing, we're really laying a pipeline from our Texas Delaware up to the Northern Delaware and New Mexico. So we're opening a new area. We did upsize this expansion more than we needed like we've done in other lands. We have a lot of growth there.

    有一點互補,但其實我們這次做的擴建,主要是在鋪設一條管線,從我們在德州的Delaware一路延伸到北部Delaware以及新墨西哥。所以我們是在開拓一個新的區域。我們也把這次擴建的規模加大到超過實際所需,就像我們在其他區域做過的一樣。那裡有很大的成長空間。

  • It's backed by third-party processors and producers that have contracted for this space. And with that extra capacity, we really are excited about being able to access a different part of the Delaware Basin, that Northern New Mexico Delaware, where there's a lot of opportunity for us to compete for third-party processing plants in that third-party NGL volume.

    而且這是由已簽約承租該容量的第三方處理商與生產商所支撐。有了這些額外的產能,我們非常期待能夠切入Delaware盆地的另一個區塊,也就是新墨西哥北部的Delaware,那裡有很多機會讓我們去競爭第三方處理廠的業務,以及那些第三方的NGL量。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的Jean Ann Salisbury。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Bakken rigs have gone up markedly in the last month or two. Have you heard from producers that they're adding activity in the Bakken at these oil prices?

    嗨,早安。Bakken的鑽機數在過去一兩個月明顯上升。在目前油價水準下,你們有沒有聽到生產商表示他們正在增加Bakken的活動?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, we have. They are. Obviously, they're adding activity. We have more rigs coming online. And what's interesting about that is we're seeing more rigs come in or rigs come back from producers that are multi-basin producers that have other opportunities across the whole North America, and they are bringing rigs back. So we are very -- we're excited about what we're seeing.

    有的,我們有聽到。他們確實在增加。很明顯,他們正在提高活動量。我們有更多鑽機開始上線。有趣的是,我們看到更多鑽機進來,或是一些鑽機回流,這些是來自跨盆地的生產商;他們在整個北美還有其他機會,但他們正在把鑽機帶回來。所以我們非常——我們對目前看到的情況感到很振奮。

  • And in some of these areas, they're drilling in the core of the core, which is great, great for us, and that volume is all coming to us as well. So yes, we are seeing more activity in the Bakken with this rig count and from a different type of producer that we haven't seen before, which is very encouraging.

    而且在其中一些區域,他們是在最核心的核心區進行鑽探,這非常好,對我們也非常有利,而那些產量也都會流向我們。所以是的,我們確實看到在Bakken的活動增加,不僅鑽機數上升,且來自我們以前沒看過的不同類型生產商,這非常令人鼓舞。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • And there's obviously been a lot of Permian M&A in recent months, specifically of G&P M&A. What do you attribute this uptick in activity to? A lot of these G&Ps had kind of been out there for a long time? And then I guess, relatedly, what are the key criteria when ONEOK assesses these for fit within your portfolio? Is the ability to direct NGLs a must-have component when you're screening these things?

    另外,近幾個月Permian地區的併購很多,特別是G&P(集輸與處理)領域的併購。你認為這波活動升溫的原因是什麼?其中很多G&P資產其實在市場上掛了很久。再延伸問一下,ONEOK在評估這些資產是否適合納入你們投資組合時,最關鍵的篩選標準是什麼?在你們篩選時,是否「具備將NGL導流/輸送的能力」是一個必備要件?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Jean, this is Walt. Yes. I think that you asked why there are so many of these transactions. Clearly, with commodity prices where they are, the private equity backers are looking at this as a window and opportunity to sell when the market is as strong as it has been. So they're all testing the market. Many of these assets have tested the market before. But at these levels, you're seeing some activity.

    Jean,我是Walt。是的。你問為什麼會有這麼多交易。很明顯,在目前商品價格的水準下,私募股權的出資方把這視為一個窗口期與出售機會,因為市場一直很強。所以大家都在測試市場。其中很多資產以前也曾經試過要出售。但在目前這些水準下,你就會看到一些交易活動。

  • And the other thing is that there are fewer and fewer of those opportunities out there. So as people look at trying to round out, they've decided to act. And many of them have derisked quite a bit. In previous years when they've tried to come to market, they had a lot of space, but maybe not a lot of volume. Many of them have been able to do a good job filling those up. So it -- I think it's just the maturity of the basin with the backdrop of a great commodity price that's bringing people to the market.

    另外一點是,這類機會在市場上越來越少。所以當大家想把版圖補齊、把拼圖拼完整時,就決定採取行動。而且很多資產的風險已經降低不少。過去幾年他們嘗試上市場時,雖然有很多空間(容量),但可能沒有太多量(volume)。其中很多已經把容量填得不錯。所以——我認為這就是盆地成熟度提升,再加上商品價格很好的背景,促使大家走向市場。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • And I guess what are the key criteria for ONEOK when you're screening them?

    那ONEOK在篩選這些標的時,關鍵的評估標準是什麼?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • I mean, the NGLs -- I apologize, I forgot that part of the question. NGLs is clearly something that would be important to us and something that we look at. It's one piece to the overall picture. But to the extent that we can use our integrated system and continue to touch that molecule throughout the chain, that is what our strategy is. So if we can capture those NGLs, that definitely would screen better on our radar for sure.

    我的意思是,NGL——抱歉,我剛剛漏掉了這部分問題。NGL顯然是對我們很重要、也是我們會看的項目。它是整體拼圖中的一部分。但只要我們能運用我們的一體化系統,並在整條鏈上持續接觸同一分子(molecule),這就是我們的策略。所以如果我們能掌握那些NGL,確實會讓它在我們的雷達上更符合篩選條件。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Walt mentioned that this was a part of the criteria. But the areas of dedication, the locations of those areas of dedication in and around the existing assets, both from a legacy standpoint and the new assets that you'd pick up, the quality of the producer that's drilling those areas. There's a multitude of things that we look at all to basically derisk what it is that we're looking at and where we spend our capital.

    Walt提到這是評估標準的一部分。但還有像是dedication的範圍、這些dedication區域相對於既有資產(包含既有資產與你可能收購的新資產)的地理位置,以及在那些區域鑽探的生產商品質。我們會看很多面向,目的基本上都是為了把我們評估的標的、以及我們投入資本的地方盡可能去風險化。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you for the answers.

    很好。我就先到這裡。謝謝你們的回答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的John Mackay。

  • John Mackay - Equity Analyst

    John Mackay - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, team. Thank you for the time. You touched on this a couple of times, I think, in the context of the incremental balance sheet capacity. But just as you guys are out there looking to add new organic growth projects, could you touch a little bit about where you think kind of run rate annual growth CapEx could get to? And maybe any sort of range you want to put around that, keeping the leverage target in mind?

    各位好。謝謝撥冗。我想你們在談到資產負債表新增承載能力(capacity)的脈絡下,已經提過幾次。但當你們在外面尋找要新增的有機成長專案時,能否談談你們認為常態(run rate)的年度成長資本支出(CapEx)可能會到什麼水準?也許可以給個區間,同時把槓桿目標納入考量?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Sure. Well, as we've said, '27 will look somewhat like '26. We expect a lower level than '26, but we still have some reasonably big projects finishing up with Medford wrapping up in 2027, process -- large processing plant, several plants actually and then the dock. So you should think around that $3 billion-ish, give or take, for '27. And then we would expect it to range between that $2.5 billion to $3 billion going forward, which will still leave us with quite a bit of free cash flow to return capital to shareholders.

    當然。就像我們說過的,2027年會在某種程度上類似2026年。我們預期會低於2026年的水準,但我們仍有一些相當大型的專案在收尾,包含Medford在2027年完工,還有處理——大型處理廠,實際上是好幾座廠,然後還有碼頭。所以2027年你可以用大約30億美元左右來思考,上下浮動一些。而往後我們預期會落在25億到30億美元之間,這仍會讓我們保有相當可觀的自由現金流,用來回饋股東、返還資本。

  • John Mackay - Equity Analyst

    John Mackay - Equity Analyst

  • I appreciate that. And just second one for me. On the Northern Delaware NGL expansion, anything you can comment in terms of mix of third-party counterparties there, either producers or is it all midstream? And then is that a -- would you expect that to be kind of like full chain margin, including frac all the way to Belvieu from the Northern Delaware? Or is it just a portion?

    了解,謝謝。我第二個問題:關於北部Delaware的NGL擴建,你們能否評論一下那邊第三方對手方的組成,例如是生產商為主,還是全部都是中游公司?另外,這會是——你們是否預期它會像「全鏈條」的利潤貢獻,包含從北部Delaware一路到Belvieu的分餾(frac)等環節?還是只涵蓋其中一部分?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So the first thing, it is both. We have multiple third-party processors that have signed up for this capacity and producers on that. So it's a very nice mix between there. The -- it will be almost entirely is a full value chain transportation and fractionation. There is a little bit that will be just transport only, but it is highly all transportation down to Mont Belvieu and fractionation into Mont Belvieu. And we think that ramping will be -- what we -- the volume that has underwrote this will be coming up fairly quickly once it's put into service, and that will be into the third quarter of '27 when it comes up in service.

    是的。所以第一點,兩者都有。我們有多家第三方處理商已簽約使用這項產能,且也有生產商參與其中。所以在兩者之間形成非常好的組合。而且——幾乎全部都會是完整價值鏈的運輸與分餾。有一小部分會僅是運輸,但大多數都是一路運到 Mont Belvieu,並在 Mont Belvieu 進行分餾。我們認為爬坡(ramp-up)會——也就是說,為這項專案提供承諾支撐的量,在投運後會相當快地上來;投運時間會落在 2027 年第三季。

  • John Mackay - Equity Analyst

    John Mackay - Equity Analyst

  • Interesting. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.

    有意思。謝謝你補充說明。感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    Theresa Chen,巴克萊。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Walt, would you further elucidate the shift in your leverage philosophy operating with lower leverage on a run rate basis? Is this rating agency led? Is it that you're seeing more commodity volatility across your base business versus previously? Or is it more driven towards shoring up dry powder in the event of attractive inorganic opportunities complementing your organic ones?

    Walt,你能否進一步闡述你們在槓桿理念上的轉變,也就是在常態化(run rate)基礎上以較低槓桿運作?這是由信評機構主導的嗎?是因為你們看到核心業務的商品波動性比以前更大嗎?還是更多是為了在出現具吸引力、可補強你們內生成長的外延併購機會時,預先保留「乾火藥」(可動用資金)?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • I would say that it's no one particular thing. As we've gone through these transactions and lived through commodity cycles, we think maintaining the flexibility to look at opportunities and not stress the balance sheet is important. We have seen a lot of interest from large shareholders in seeing a lower leverage in the business. Yes. So we're in the view that we did not do it just to get a BBB+, that's for sure.

    我會說這不是單一因素所致。隨著我們走過這些交易並經歷商品循環,我們認為維持彈性、能夠評估機會且不讓資產負債表承壓,是很重要的。我們也看到許多大型股東希望公司以較低槓桿運作。是的。所以我們的看法是,我們絕對不是為了拿到 BBB+ 才這麼做。

  • But we're very pleased that the rating agencies have recognized that we intend to operate the business with a lower level of leverage. So it's a little bit more conservative. We've seen some pretty significant commodity cycles over the last 10 years, and there will be another one at some point.

    但我們很高興信評機構已認可我們打算以較低槓桿水準來經營公司。所以這會稍微更保守一些。過去 10 年我們見過一些相當劇烈的商品循環,未來某個時點也還會再出現一次。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • And as you evaluate further expansion of your Denver pipeline, how could the next phase differ from the initial project now that that's online, both in terms of scale and product capabilities? Would it be fair to assume that the next phase would handle products beyond jet fuel? What would you need to see to move forward towards an FID? And what are you seeing in terms of demand in that market as well?

    另外,在你們評估丹佛管線的進一步擴建時,既然第一期專案已上線,下一期在規模與產品能力上可能會有哪些不同?是否可以合理假設下一期會處理噴射燃料以外的產品?你們需要看到哪些條件才會推進到做出最終投資決策(FID)?你們也看到該市場的需求狀況如何?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I mean, really, we set this up very nicely that the next expansion of Denver is not going to be a huge capital expansion. And so really, what we're looking for is talking to the customers of them wanting to sign up for that capacity.

    是的。我的意思是,我們把架構設計得很好,讓丹佛的下一次擴建不會是一個資本支出很大的擴建。所以我們真正要找的是與客戶溝通,確認他們是否願意簽約使用那部分產能。

  • And they're looking at not only what's going on in the Front Range, but overall, what's going on in PADD 4, what they're looking at and how they continue to move that out or other inter movements within PADD or how that would affect the Front Range.

    而他們看的不只是 Front Range 的情況,也會看整體 PADD 4 的狀況、他們打算如何持續把量往外移動,或是在 PADD 內部的其他跨區調度,以及這些因素會如何影響 Front Range。

  • So really, to FID that project, we just need to get to the customers and have them ready to sign up for the space is really where we're at. And we're having those conversations today. But obviously, that plant -- that pipeline just came online. We're moving more volume. People want to see how the market is reacting to this additional volume.

    所以要對那個專案做出 FID,我們只需要走到客戶端,讓他們準備好簽約承租容量,這就是我們目前所處的位置。我們今天也正在進行這些對話。但很明顯,那座廠——那條管線才剛上線。我們正在輸送更多量。大家也想看看市場對這些新增量的反應如何。

  • We are seeing increased jet fuel demand across our whole system, and Denver is no exception. But obviously, this new capacity is meeting that demand today. But I will say we are having quite a few conversations with customers about the next expansion of Denver.

    我們看到整個系統的噴射燃料需求都在增加,丹佛也不例外。但顯然,這些新增產能目前正在滿足這些需求。不過我想說的是,我們確實正與不少客戶就丹佛下一次擴建進行相當多的討論。

  • And we -- the thing that is unique about it is if they come in and want a little bit, we can give it or they want a lot. We can scale our expansion to what the customers want to sign up for. That's the beauty of us putting this operating leverage in the pipeline we laid for the first time.

    而且——它的獨特之處在於,如果客戶進來只想要一點,我們可以提供;如果他們想要很多,我們也可以把擴建規模調整到客戶願意簽約的量。這就是我們第一次在所鋪設的管線中導入這種營運槓桿的好處。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

    Praneeth Satish,富國銀行。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Good morning. Just on Brazos, I was wondering if you could help bridge the -- so in Q4, looking at the contribution, I think if you annualize it, it's about $350 million of EBITDA. The 2027 target that you provided when you made the acquisition was $590 million.

    早安。關於 Brazos,我想請你們協助銜接一下——所以在第四季,看貢獻度,我想如果年化,大約是 3.5 億美元的 EBITDA。你們在收購時提供的 2027 年目標是 5.9 億美元。

  • I know you have Cassidy 1 and 2, so that's probably part of it. But maybe like what are the other key drivers? And then how much visibility is there into filling up those two plants and getting to that $590 million target for '27?

    我知道你們有 Cassidy 1 和 2,所以那可能是其中一部分。但除此之外,其他關鍵驅動因素是什麼?另外,對於把那兩座廠的產能填滿、並在 2027 年達到 5.9 億美元目標,你們的能見度有多高?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, this is Sheridan. What I would say is, obviously, Cassidy 1, as I said, is coming up here at the end of this year. It will fill relatively quickly on that. So you're going to get another 330 million a day of processing capacity we're processing. Right now, we have 550 million. So we're increasing by over 50%.

    嗯,我是 Sheridan。我會說,很明顯,正如我提到的,Cassidy 1 會在今年底前後投運。它的產能會相對快速地被填滿。因此你們會再增加每日 3.3 億立方英尺的處理產能投入處理。目前我們有 5.5 億立方英尺/日。所以我們的增幅超過 50%。

  • Then also as we tie that system into our system, we'll be able to access our processing capacity as well. And then you get the downstream effect of the NGLs that are coming off this increased processing capacity to us as well. So it's kind of a twofold that we're getting continue to go forward.

    另外,當我們把那套系統接入我們的系統後,我們也能夠使用我們自身的處理產能。接著,你還會看到下游效應:因為這些新增處理產能所產出的 NGL(天然氣液)也會流向我們。所以這有點像是雙重效益,推動我們持續往前。

  • So -- and then Cassidy 2, when it comes up, we will have to have used our legacy system when Cassidy 2 comes up. So everything is pointing to that Cassidy 2 will ramp up fairly quickly. As I said in my remarks that we are actually ahead -- volume is ahead of where we thought we would be at this time and projections are showing that, that's going to continue well into 2027, especially with our conversations with the producers out there that are getting excited about this Barnett and what they're seeing. They're seeing better results than they had anticipated from a volume standpoint on the gas. So we think it will -- that's how we're going to get to that higher number.

    所以——然後 Cassidy 2 投運時,我們將必須已經把我們既有系統的能力用起來,才能承接 Cassidy 2 上線。因此各項跡象都顯示 Cassidy 2 也會相當快地爬坡。正如我在發言中提到的,我們目前的量其實——已經超過我們原先預期在這個時間點應有的水準,而預測也顯示這種趨勢會一路延續到 2027 年,特別是我們與當地生產商的對話中,他們對 Barnett 的發展以及所看到的情況感到興奮。從天然氣產量的角度,他們看到的結果比原先預期更好。所以我們認為——這就是我們能達到更高數字的方式。

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • And Praneeth, this is Walt. I think the important part today is that the 550 million that is there is full, and we're doing offloads at this point. So if we had the capacity, we would be at a higher number. But until we bring in that Cassidy 1 plant, we will take a stair step up as we go into 2027.

    Praneeth,我是 Walt。我認為今天重要的一點是,目前那 5.5 億立方英尺/日的產能已經滿載,我們此刻正在做分流/卸載(offloads)。所以如果我們有更多產能,數字會更高。但在 Cassidy 1 廠投運之前,隨著我們邁向 2027 年,我們會呈現階梯式上升。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just staying on Brazos. So Sheridan, I think you noted that you expect 14 rigs on the Brazos acreage in 2027. I guess with commodity prices moving higher and some of these results here that the producers are seeing from the Barnett, like is there any interest from producers on the Brazos system to add rigs? Do you think there's a possibility that, that rig count moves above 14 rigs in 2027 based on the discussions you're having with your customers?

    了解。這很有幫助。那我再延伸問一下 Brazos。Sheridan,我想你提到你預期 2027 年在 Brazos 的區塊(acreage)上會有 14 座鑽機。我想在商品價格走高、以及生產商在 Barnett 看到的一些成果之下,生產商對於在 Brazos 系統上增加鑽機是否有興趣?根據你們與客戶的討論,你認為 2027 年鑽機數有可能高於 14 座嗎?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I do think there's an opportunity for it to move up. We do have some customers that are continuing to look at that, continue to see where they want to deploy those rigs. As they get more and more comfortable with the Barnett, what's going on, they're probably going to be moving more into that area.

    是的。我確實認為它有機會往上走。我們確實有一些客戶仍在持續關注這件事,並持續觀察他們想把那些鑽機部署到哪裡。隨著他們對 Barnett 的情況、正在發生的事情越來越有信心,他們很可能會把更多活動移到那個區域。

  • So yes, we think it could definitely move up. We're just seeing our discussions right now as they're saying this is where it is. But right now, they know they're going to have this many rigs on there and there could be more coming. We just need to see how we get into -- a little bit more into '27.

    所以是的,我們認為它絕對可能上升。只是就目前的討論來看,他們的說法是目前就是這樣的狀態。但眼下,他們知道會在那裡維持這麼多鑽機,而且可能還會有更多進來。我們只需要看看我們如何——再更深入一點地進入到 27 年。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank.

    Brandon Bingham,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to maybe get a little more clarity around the crude volumes during the quarter, looked a little bit light. Just what can you say about some of the dynamics around the crude piece? And then maybe how should we think about the forward trajectory of Permian crude, especially in light of all of the gas that is forecasted to come online through the end of the decade?

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想更釐清一下本季的原油量,看起來有點偏低。關於原油這一塊的一些動態,你能說明一下嗎?另外,尤其考量到預計到本十年末會有大量天然氣上線,你們認為二疊紀原油未來的走勢應該怎麼看?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So -- this is Sheridan. What I would tell you is, is that the crude number we give you is a total system number. That includes both the gathering volumes, volumes that travel down our long-haul pipelines and also volumes that we move through our Houston distribution system.

    所以——我是 Sheridan。我想告訴你的是,我們提供的原油數字是全系統的總量。這包含集輸量、在我們長途管線上運輸的量,以及我們透過休士頓配送系統移動的量。

  • Each one of those have very different rates on there. And Houston distribution system, which is where a lot of the volume moves is at the lowest rate. That's why in our remarks, we talked about the high-margin volumes are our gathering system out there in the Permian, and that is up 7%. And that's why we're trying to give you that number because we know there's other pieces and parts that move around in there because we've only given you one number.

    這三者各自的費率差異很大。而休士頓配送系統——很多量是在那裡移動——其費率是最低的。因此我們在談話中提到,高毛利的量來自我們在二疊紀的集輸系統,而那部分成長了 7%。這也是為什麼我們試著把這個數字提供給你,因為我們知道在你只看到一個總數的情況下,裡面還有其他部分會在不同系統間移動、造成變動。

  • And there's another effect of how we kind of account for numbers depending on where they go and what systems they go through, how many times they get counted. So overall, we are -- we like where our volumes are. They're growing. They're growing where they need to grow. That means they're growing in the gathering system. We continue to see that grow as we have 40 rigs on our acreage right now drilling.

    另外還有一個影響因素,是我們在不同去向、不同系統之間,對數字的認列方式——它們會被計算幾次。所以整體而言,我們——我們對目前的量感到滿意。它們在成長。而且是在該成長的地方成長。也就是說,它們是在集輸系統成長。我們持續看到這部分成長,因為目前在我們的區塊上有 40 部鑽機正在鑽井。

  • We continue to expand our acreage dedication that we're getting from people and continue to grow that volumes, continue to make connectivity between our systems, continue to make connectivity between our gathering systems and our long-haul pipelines.

    我們也持續擴大從客戶那裡取得的專屬供應(acreage dedication),並持續帶動量的成長;同時持續強化系統之間的連通性,持續強化我們集輸系統與長途管線之間的連通性。

  • Our long-haul pipelines are predominantly full right now at this time. They're moving at rates. So I know it's a little bit hard because we show a little bit of drop in volumes. That is around our Houston distribution system, where that is, which is by far the lowest margin, but our gathering volumes are up nicely at 7%.

    我們的長途管線目前大多接近滿載。它們是以費率在運行。所以我知道這有點難解讀,因為我們顯示總量有些下滑。那主要是休士頓配送系統那一塊,而那一塊的毛利遠遠最低;但我們的集輸量漂亮地成長了 7%。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Brandon, if you're going to continue to see the LNG growth in the Gulf Coast there, another 12 Bcf a day, it's our belief that a lot of that gas is going to come out of the Permian Basin. So there's two things that's got to move there, either the volume of crude has to go up, therefore, lifting the gas or the GOR has to go up if the volume of crude stays flat. Our opinion is they probably both will move up. So there's going to be more crude, I think, to move out there in the future.

    Brandon,如果你看到墨西哥灣沿岸 LNG 的成長還會持續——再增加每天 120 億立方英尺(Bcf/d)——我們相信其中很大一部分天然氣會來自二疊紀盆地。因此那裡有兩件事必須發生:要嘛原油量必須上升,進而帶動伴生氣;要嘛如果原油量持平,氣油比(GOR)就必須上升。我們的看法是,兩者可能都會上升。所以我認為未來會有更多原油需要從那裡外運。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • I agree. Very helpful. And then maybe one quick follow-up. I know you said you were going to wait for 4Q to kind of get into specifics, but is there anything maybe more qualitative or high level you could discuss maybe for the non-Brazos piece of the business as Brazos feels kind of pretty well understood at this point?

    我同意。非常有幫助。再追問一個很快的問題。我知道你說會等到第四季再談更具體的內容,但就非 Brazos 的業務部分,有沒有什麼更偏質性或更高層次的看法可以分享?因為 Brazos 這部分目前看起來大家已經相當理解了。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think you're getting on what's the guidance for '27. I do want to reemphasize that we're not going to give guidance today for 2027. But I can tell you from where I sit, I really like where 2027 is setting up for us.

    我想你問的是 27 年的指引是什麼。我想再次強調,我們今天不會提供 2027 年的指引。但我可以告訴你,就我所見,我非常喜歡我們 2027 年的布局與態勢。

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • I do think it's important -- to add to that is you really have to -- see, we've talked a lot about the Permian today and probably haven't given the Mid-Continent its due because the Mid-Continent activity has picked up significantly.

    我認為很重要——補充一點——你真的必須——你看,我們今天談了很多二疊紀,可能沒有給中部大陸(Mid-Continent)足夠的篇幅,因為中部大陸的活動已經明顯回升。

  • And we're not only seeing it on the western side of the state, we're now starting to see the STACK come back a little bit, too. So we're excited about the Mid-Continent. The Powder has been doing great. So across each of the basins, we've talked about the rigs in the Bakken. So we're seeing that across all the basins.

    而且我們不只在該州西部看到這個趨勢,現在也開始看到 STACK 也有些回來了。所以我們對中部大陸感到興奮。Powder 的表現一直很出色。因此在各個盆地,我們也談到巴肯(Bakken)的鑽機數。所以我們看到這種情況遍及所有盆地。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Very helpful. Appreciate it.

    非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith,Jefferies。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • You've actually got Patrick this morning. On the first one, I was wondering if you could add a bit more color around the hedging. I know you said you don't want to do '27 guidance, but how does this fit into your high -- mid- to high single digits long-term growth trajectory?

    今天早上其實是 Patrick。第一個問題,我想請你再多補充一些關於避險的細節。我知道你說不想提供 27 年指引,但這如何融入你們長期中到高個位數成長的軌跡?

  • I mean, if you -- I think you said 75% hedged into 2027 at these prices. Can you just add some color about how that relates to your longer-term earnings guidance, if you expect that to be kind of sustained or if that would drop off pretty sharply, assuming geopolitical normalization?

    我的意思是,如果你——我想你說在這些價格水準下,避險已做到 2027 年的 75%。你能不能再補充一下,這與你們更長期的獲利指引之間的關聯?你是否預期這種狀態能維持,或是假設地緣政治回歸常態後,會相當快速地回落?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. This is Sheridan. First thing is, yes, we did not say we're 75% through 2027. We were 75% coming into the fourth quarter of into the third quarter of 2026, and that other 25% gave us quite a bit of uplift. But as we talked about as hedging going into 2027, with these wide margins, we are seeing an opportunity to hedge more than we typically do. We have a very programmatic hedging that we are on a cadence when we hedge. We're not really trying to call the market. But when we see times like this, we do have the ability to accelerate that hedging.

    是的。我是 Sheridan。第一點,是的,我們並沒有說我們一路到 2027 年都避險了 75%。我們是說,在進入 2026 年第三季時,我們已避險 75%(涵蓋到第四季),而剩下的 25%帶來了相當可觀的上行空間。但如同我們談到的,對於進入 2027 年的避險,在目前這種寬利差環境下,我們看到比平常做更多避險的機會。我們的避險是非常制度化、按既定節奏進行。我們並不是想去押注市場走勢。但當我們看到像現在這樣的時點,我們確實有能力加快避險的進度。

  • And we've done that into 2027, more so in the first part of the year because of the backwardation in the market. And obviously, that backwardation is a sign of strength. So we really think the market will kind of come up as we get out in '27. But we are more hedged now than we typically are at this time of the year at these wide margins.

    而我們也確實把避險延伸到 2027 年,且更多集中在上半年,因為市場存在期貨逆價差(backwardation)。而顯然,逆價差是市場強勢的訊號。所以我們真的認為,當我們走到 27 年時,市場可能會逐步走高。但在這個時間點、在這樣的寬利差下,我們目前的避險比往年同一時期通常會做得更多。

  • Obviously, that has just come of late. And when I really think about this medium to high single-digit growth rate. That's really going off the base business and more of what we typically see in our margins going forward. So commodity price could be a nice little tailwind.

    顯然,這是最近才出現的情況。而當我真正思考這個中到高個位數的成長率時,那主要是以基礎業務為出發點,並以我們對未來通常可見的利差水準作為假設。因此,商品價格可能會成為一個不錯的順風因素。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And I think a second bit, maybe a minor question was, do you tell us how much inventory is building for NGLs that Medford would need to process?

    好的。我想第二點,可能是個小問題,你們能否告訴我們,為了讓 Medford 處理,NGL 的庫存正在累積多少?

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Could you say that again?

    你可以再說一次嗎?

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Do you tell us how much inventory is building up for Medford to process?

    你們能否告訴我們,為了讓 Medford 處理,正在累積多少庫存?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • It is -- sorry, I apologize. We haven't come out and said exactly how much inventory we have, but we have quite a bit of inventory right now that we've been building since the second quarter, anticipating of Medford coming on as we've been successful in being able to contract more volume and growth across our system. So Medford is going to run full for definitely the first quarter and probably into the part of the second quarter when it comes up.

    這個——抱歉,我道歉。我們還沒有對外明確說我們到底有多少庫存,但我們目前確實有相當多的庫存,自第二季以來一直在累積,因為我們預期 Medford 將投運,同時我們也成功簽下更多合約量,並在整個系統中實現成長。因此,Medford 在投運後,第一季肯定會滿載運行,可能還會延續到第二季的一部分。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • And that will earn the product prices at that point in time where you've hedged the prices that it will get as it processes all that inventory back?

    而到那個時間點,當你們把所有庫存回頭處理時,產品價格將按你們已對沖的價格來實現嗎?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • So there's two things that happened is because of the way of accounting, we could not -- we cannot account for our fee-based earnings that we received from those -- that volume that we put into the well. So when we fractionate that volume, we will get the fee-based earnings associated with those volumes in the well.

    所以有兩件事發生:由於會計處理方式,我們不能——我們無法把我們從那些——我們注入儲槽(well)中的那部分量所收到的費基(fee-based)收益入帳。因此,當我們把那部分量進行分餾(fractionate)時,我們就會取得與儲槽中那些量相關的費基收益。

  • Our marketing team has already hedged those out into the future to take out the commodity price on it. So the earnings you'll see next year coming from this will be from the fee-based portion that is we cannot record until we fractionate the barrel.

    我們的行銷團隊已經把這些在未來做了對沖,以消除其中的商品價格風險。所以你們明年看到的相關收益,將來自費基部分;這部分在我們把每桶進行分餾之前,是無法入帳的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    Wolfe Research 的 Keith Stanley。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I wanted to follow up on the Delaware NGL expansion pipe. Should we think of the 245,000 barrels a day as mostly spoken for with new long-term contracts? Or is this creating a lot of white space for you in New Mexico? And then related to that, any update on how full you are now on the -- I think it's 750,000 barrels a day of West Texas LPG capacity all the way to the Gulf Coast?

    嗨,早安。我想追問一下 Delaware 的 NGL 擴建管線。我們是否應該把每日 245,000 桶視為主要已由新的長期合約預訂?還是說這會在新墨西哥為你們創造很大的「空白空間」(white space)?另外相關地,能否更新一下你們目前在——我想是每日 750,000 桶的西德州 LPG 輸送到墨西哥灣沿岸的產能——現在大概滿載到什麼程度?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So on the Delaware expansion, we did -- we think it's a very strategic pipeline. We think it goes to an area that there's a lot of opportunity to pick up third-party NGL volume. And so we did go in there and upsize that pipeline for that. So there is quite a bit of white space that we have there to be able to leverage and to be able to increase the volume on that system.

    是的。關於 Delaware 的擴建,我們確實——我們認為這是一條非常具策略性的管線。我們認為它通往一個有很多機會承接第三方 NGL 量的區域。因此我們確實進入那裡,並為此把那條管線擴大規模。所以我們在那裡有相當多的「空白空間」,可以用來槓桿運用,並提高該系統的輸送量。

  • And then overall, we still have around a little over between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels a day of space on the West Texas NGL pipeline going forward. Obviously, with our expectation with Brazos, Brazos is going to fill up quite a bit of that. And then our growth across our other base business will help us give a substantial amount of that pool.

    然後整體而言,往後在西德州 NGL 管線上,我們仍大約有略高於每日 200,000 到 300,000 桶的剩餘空間。當然,依照我們對 Brazos 的預期,Brazos 會填滿其中相當一部分。此外,我們其他基礎業務的成長也會幫助我們消化那個容量池中的相當一部分。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Quick one second question on the refined products optimization. So you were up Q-over-Q in the third quarter on higher blending results. The slides often talk about Q2 and Q4 as the big blending quarters. Should we assume some of the blending sales were pulled forward from Q4 into Q3? Or is there anything else you'd point to on Q3 being very strong?

    很好。第二個快問:關於成品油優化(refined products optimization)。你們第三季因為更高的調和(blending)成果而較前一季成長。投影片常提到第二季和第四季是調和的大季。我們是否應該假設部分調和銷售從第四季提前到第三季?或者第三季表現很強,還有其他你們會指出的原因?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Q2 was strong. Obviously, we had some very wide margins in there that made it really good. Volumes were good, which was kind of a culmination of a lot of our synergy projects that we've been being able to put into place. We've actually -- we talked about this. Magellan, when we bought it, they were spending around about $0.20 per gallon for their normal butane to get to the right place and to be able to blend because they are moving a good portion on trucks.

    是的。第二季很強。很明顯,我們當時有一些非常寬的利差,使得表現非常好。量也不錯,這某種程度上是我們許多協同(synergy)專案逐步落地的綜合成果。其實——我們談過這點。我們收購 Magellan 時,他們為了把一般丁烷(normal butane)運到正確地點並進行調和,成本大約是每加侖 0.20 美元,因為他們有相當一部分是用卡車運輸。

  • The synergy projects that we've been able to put together have moved almost all that on to pipeline, and we've been able to cut $0.10 a gallon out of that. So what we're blending now, even though we had wide margins and then we had lower logistics cost to get there. And those logistic costs will be there every year. I mean, that's permanent, continue to go forward.

    我們整合出的協同專案,已把幾乎所有那部分改為管線運輸,並且把成本降低了每加侖 0.10 美元。所以我們現在的調和,即便利差很寬,同時我們把運到那裡的物流成本也降低了。而且那些物流成本的改善每年都會存在。我的意思是,那是永久性的,會持續往後。

  • So that -- and then a little -- we had some -- there was a little bit of waiver help. In September, they moved from September 15 to the first of September that you can -- the RVP change that gave us some more volume to be able to blend into. And frankly, we're just getting better and better at it.

    所以——另外還有一點——我們也得到了一些豁免(waiver)的幫助。在 9 月,他們把日期從 9 月 15 日提前到 9 月 1 日,也就是 RVP(雷德蒸氣壓)變更的時間點,這讓我們有更多量可以用來調和。坦白說,我們在這方面也越做越好。

  • And you're right, the other thing was good is we are seeing increased gasoline volume across our system. The more gasoline volume across our systems, the more opportunity we have to blend. So there's three or four things that have really contributed to that. And as we go into the fourth quarter, we're still seeing good margins. Obviously, logistic costs are still there and volumes across our system are strong compared to where they are historically.

    而且你說得對,另一個有利因素是,我們看到整個系統的汽油量在增加。系統內汽油量越多,我們就有越多機會進行調和。所以大概有三、四個因素共同促成了這點。而進入第四季,我們仍看到不錯的利差。很明顯,物流成本仍然存在,而我們系統內的量相較於歷史水準也依然強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I would now like to turn the call back over to Megan Patterson for closing remarks.

    以上是我們今天的問答環節。現在我想把電話會議交回給 Megan Patterson 作結語。

  • Megan Patterson - Investor Relations

    Megan Patterson - Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Anna. Our quiet period for the fourth period begins when we close our books early next year and extends until we release earnings in late February. Our IR team is available throughout the day for any follow-ups. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.

    謝謝你,Anna。我們第四季的靜默期(quiet period)將在明年年初我們提前結帳時開始,並持續到我們在 2 月下旬發布財報為止。我們的投資人關係(IR)團隊全天都可提供後續追問的協助。感謝各位參與,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。各位現在可以掛線,祝各位有美好的一天。