歐尼克 (OKE) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to ONEOK's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加 ONEOK 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • With that, it is my pleasure to turn the program over to Megan Patterson, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may now begin.

    接下來,我很高興將節目交給投資者關係副總裁梅根·帕特森。現在你可以開始了。

  • Megan Patterson - Vice President, Investor relations

    Megan Patterson - Vice President, Investor relations

  • Thank you, Angela, and welcome to ONEOK's fourth quarter and year-end 2025 earnings call. We issued our earnings release and presentation after the markets closed yesterday, and those materials are available on our website. After our prepared remarks, management will be available to take your questions.

    謝謝Angela,歡迎參加ONEOK 2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我們在昨天市場收盤後發布了盈利報告和演示文稿,這些材料可以在我們的網站上找到。在我們發言結束後,管理階層將回答各位的問題。

  • Statements made during this call that might include one's expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the safe harbor provision of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings.

    本次電話會議中所做的可能包含個人預期或預測的陳述應被視為前瞻性陳述,並受 1933 年和 1934 年證券法安全港條款的保護。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素的討論,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Pierce Norton. President and Chief Executive Officer.

    接下來,我將把電話交給皮爾斯諾頓。總裁兼執行長。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Megan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Joining me on the call are Walt Hulse, our Chief Financial Officer; Randy Lentz, our Chief Operating Officer; and Sheridan Swords, our Chief Commercial Officer.

    謝謝你,梅根。各位早安,感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。與我一同參加電話會議的有:財務長沃爾特·赫爾斯;首席營運長蘭迪·倫茨;以及首席商務官謝裡丹·斯沃茲。

  • ONEOK has become a diversified, scaled, integrated energy infrastructure company delivering durable growth with a disciplined capital allocation strategy. 2025 was a defining year for ONEOK. We delivered double-digit earnings growth, expanded margins and materially strengthened our balance sheet, all while integrating major acquisitions and advancing long-cycle growth projects.

    ONEOK已發展成為一家多元化、規模化、一體化的能源基礎設施公司,憑藉嚴謹的資本配置策略實現了永續成長。 2025年是ONEOK發展歷程中的關鍵一年。我們實現了兩位數的獲利成長,擴大了利潤率,並大幅增強了資產負債表,同時也整合了重大收購項目,推進了長期成長項目。

  • On today's call, there are several key takeaways that I'd like to highlight. First, over the past 2.5 years, ONEOK has experienced an earnings power step change. In 2025, our net income attributable to ONEOK increased 12% to $3.39 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA is up 18% to $8.02 billion. 2025 marked 12 consecutive years of adjusted EBITDA growth, and we achieved a 17% average annual earnings growth rate over the same period. This significant earnings power has been sustained through various market conditions and commodity sites.

    在今天的電話會議上,我想重點介紹幾個關鍵要點。首先,在過去的2.5年裡,ONEOK的獲利能力發生了階躍式變化。2025年,歸屬於ONEOK的淨收入成長12%,達到33.9億美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長 18%,達到 80.2 億美元。 2025 年標誌著我們連續第 12 年實現調整後 EBITDA 成長,同期平均年獲利成長率達到 17%。這種顯著的獲利能力在各種市場狀況和商品交易場所都得以維持。

  • Second, we have created an integrated platform advantage. The Magellan, Easton, EnLink and Medallion acquisitions will be fully embedded in 2026 across our NGL, refined products, crude and natural gas systems, driving scale, connectivity and commercial optionality. We've realized nearly $500 million of total synergies since closing the Magellan acquisition in September 2023, far exceeding our original expectations.

    其次,我們打造了一體化的平台優勢。到 2026 年,Magellan、Easton、EnLink 和 Medallion 的收購將全面融入我們的 NGL、成品油、原油和天然氣系統中,從而擴大規模、增強連通性和提升商業選擇權。自 2023 年 9 月完成對 Magellan 的收購以來,我們已經實現了近 5 億美元的協同效應,遠遠超出了我們最初的預期。

  • We realized approximately $250 million of those synergies in 2025 alone. And through strategic organic expansions, we built in operating leverage for projects newly completed or nearing completion that will serve contracts in place and allow ONEOK to compete for volumes in the future.

    光是在 2025 年,我們就實現了約 2.5 億美元的綜效。透過策略性的有機擴張,我們為新完成或即將完成的項目建立了營運槓桿,這些項目將服務於現有合同,並使 ONEOK 能夠在未來爭奪銷量。

  • Third, our strategy has created a high-quality earnings mix, with approximately 90% fee-based earnings, limiting commodity exposure and supporting valuation durability. And finally, although lower crude oil prices are expected to slow the pace of drilling, we still have visibility to the growth in 2026 and beyond. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $8.1 billion is supported by growth completed or near completed projects and $150 million of incremental acquisition synergies.

    第三,我們的策略創造了高品質的收益組合,其中約 90% 的收益來自手續費收入,限制了商品敞口,並支持了估值的穩定性。最後,儘管原油價格走低預計會減緩鑽探速度,但我們仍然可以看到 2026 年及以後的成長。我們 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 中位數為 81 億美元,這得益於已完成或即將完成的成長項目以及 1.5 億美元的新增收購綜效。

  • Related to producer activity in the Bakken alone, there is currently 5,000 identified wells yet to be drilled on dedicated acreage and at current rig rates, that equates to approximately 15-plus years of inventory. ONEOK combines scale, integration and fee stability with long-life assets aligned to meet domestic and global energy demand. And management has proven they can integrate acquisitions and capture the expected synergies to generate additional cash flow.

    僅在巴肯地區的生產活動方面,目前在專用土地上還有 5000 口已確定的油井尚未鑽探,按照目前的鑽井速度,這相當於大約 15 年以上的庫存。ONEOK 結合了規模、一體化和費用穩定性,擁有可滿足國內和全球能源需求的長期資產。管理層已經證明,他們能夠整合收購專案並實現預期的協同效應,從而產生額外的現金流。

  • For 2026, we have good visibility into customer development plans across our operations with pace of growth being a key consideration for the year ahead. Our guidance reflects disciplined caution around commodity prices but also continued confidence in the durability of our integrated asset base and the ingenuity of our employees. Through significant growth and change, our employees continue to drive our strategy forward, prioritizing safe and reliable operations and executing on opportunities that enhance long-term value.

    對於 2026 年,我們對公司各業務部門的客戶發展計畫有清楚的了解,成長速度是未來一年的關鍵考量。我們的指導意見反映了對大宗商品價格的謹慎態度,同時也體現了對我們綜合資產基礎的持久性和員工創造力的持續信心。在經歷了顯著的成長和變革之後,我們的員工繼續推動我們的策略向前發展,優先考慮安全可靠的運營,並抓住能夠提升長期價值的機會。

  • I'll now turn it over to Walt, Randy and Sheridan to provide their financial operations, capital projects and commercial updates. Walt?

    現在我將把發言權交給沃爾特、蘭迪和謝裡丹,讓他們介紹他​​們的財務運營、資本項目和商業最新情況。沃特?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Pierce. I'll start with a brief overview of our fourth quarter and full year financial performance and then move on to our 2026 guidance. Fourth quarter net income attributable to ONEOK totaled $977 million or $1.55 per share and totaled $3.39 billion for the full year, representing a 12% increase compared with 2024 and resulting in earnings of $5.42 per share. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and more than $8 billion for the full year. Full year results included $65 million of transaction costs.

    謝謝你,皮爾斯。我將首先簡要概述我們第四季度和全年的財務業績,然後再談談我們對 2026 年的展望。ONEOK 第四季淨利潤總計 9.77 億美元,即每股 1.55 美元;全年淨利潤總計 33.9 億美元,比 2024 年增長 12%,每股收益為 5.42 美元。2025 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 總計 21.5 億美元,全年超過 80 億美元。全年業績包含6500萬美元的交易成本。

  • During the quarter, we retired more than $1.75 billion in senior notes through a combination of redemptions and repurchases. Fourth quarter activity brought our full year total to nearly $3.1 billion of long-term debt extinguished. In 2025, we returned nearly $2.7 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. We also recently increased our quarterly dividend by 4% and further reinforcing that commitment. As we progress towards our long-term leverage target of 3.5x or lower, we continue to gain flexibility in how we deploy capital.

    本季度,我們透過贖回和回購相結合的方式,註銷了超過 17.5 億美元的高級票據。第四季的各項活動使我們全年累積償還的長期債務總額接近 31 億美元。2025年,我們以分紅和股票回購的方式向股東返還了近27億美元。我們最近也將季度股息提高了 4%,進一步鞏固了這項承諾。隨著我們朝著 3.5 倍或更低的長期槓桿目標邁進,我們在資本部署方面也獲得了更大的靈活性。

  • Now moving on to guidance. For 2026, we expect net income at a midpoint of approximately $3.45 billion or $5.45 per diluted share and an adjusted EBITDA midpoint of approximately $8.1 billion. On page 7 of our investor deck, we have provided a bridge analysis from original 2025 guidance issued in February of 2025 to year-end 2025 and then a bridge to 2026 guidance. To preempt some of the questions we expect to get on this chart, I plan to walk through each column on the chart to give a brief explanation.

    接下來進入指導環節。我們預計 2026 年淨利潤中位數約為 34.5 億美元,即每股攤薄收益 5.45 美元;調整後 EBITDA 中位數約為 81 億美元。在我們的投資者簡報第 7 頁,我們提供了從 2025 年 2 月發布的原始 2025 年業績指引到 2025 年底的過渡分析,以及到 2026 年業績指引的過渡分析。為了預先解答大家可能對這張圖表提出的一些問題,我計劃逐列進行簡要解釋。

  • The 2025 guidance was first impacted by lower Bakken volume growth that resulted in gathered volumes being 100 million cubic feet per day lower than originally anticipated. This change in drilling phase began in the spring of 2025 when crude oil prices dropped from the $70s to the lower $60 range. We also experienced a reduction in anticipated NGL volumes with two third-party Permian NGL customer plants were delayed for the majority of 2025.

    2025 年的業績預期首先受到巴肯頁岩氣產量成長放緩的影響,導致日產量比原先預期低 1 億立方英尺。鑽井階段的這項變化始於 2025 年春季,當時原油價格從 70 美元左右跌至 60 美元左右。我們也經歷了預期 NGL 產量的減少,因為兩家第三方二疊紀 NGL 客戶工廠的建設被推遲到 2025 年的大部分時間。

  • The second column in the chart reflects a $125 million reduction in lower upgrade margin in our NGL and refined products businesses. An example of this would be the narrowing of RBOB to butane spreads in our blending business.

    圖表中的第二列反映了我們的 NGL 和成品油業務的低升級利潤率減少了 1.25 億美元。例如,在我們的混合業務中,RBOB 的價格範圍縮小到丁烷價差。

  • On the positive side, we enjoyed strong location differentials such as the Waha-to-Katy spread and our Natural Gas Pipeline segment. These differentials added approximately $150 million to EBITDA in 2025. The majority of the $85 million of other income reflected on the chart is the gain realized on debt repurchases made throughout the year. On a comparative basis, excluding transaction costs, we ended 2025 with EBITDA of $8.085 billion compared to our original 2025 guidance of $8.225 billion.

    從積極的方面來看,我們享有強大的地域優勢,例如 Waha 到 Katy 的地段優勢以及我們的天然氣管道業務。這些差異在 2025 年為 EBITDA 增加了約 1.5 億美元。圖表中反映的 8500 萬美元其他收入的大部分是全年債務回購實現的收益。不計交易成本,以比較計算,我們 2025 年的 EBITDA 為 80.85 億美元,而我們最初 2025 年的預期為 82.25 億美元。

  • Looking forward to 2026. We see $100 million of EBITDA growth from increased volumes in the Permian and the full year of third-party Permian plant volumes that were delayed in 2025. This $100 million increase is net of other impacts such as contract rollovers and the 18,000 barrels per day of continental NGLs rolling off our Rocky Mountain region volumes this year, which we've previously discussed.

    期待2026年。預計二疊紀盆地產量增加,以及原定於 2025 年交付的第三方二疊紀盆地工廠全年產量,將帶來 1 億美元的 EBITDA 成長。這 1 億美元的成長已扣除其他影響,例如合約展期以及今年從我們落基山脈地區每天 18,000 桶的大陸天然氣凝液展期,我們之前已經討論過這些影響。

  • We expect asset optimization to add $150 million of EBITDA for batching and blending logistical benefits, allowing us to efficiently move NGLs and refined products through the Easton acquisition connections between Mont Belvieu and East Houston and other synergy projects completed throughout the Mid-Continent NGL and refined products businesses.

    我們預計資產優化將透過批量混合物流效益增加 1.5 億美元的 EBITDA,使我們能夠透過 Easton 收購的連接蒙特貝爾維尤和東休斯頓,以及在整個中大陸天然氣凝液和精煉產品業務中完成的其他協同項目,有效地運輸天然氣凝液和精煉產品。

  • The $150 million reduction in EBITDA shown on the chart stems from lower forecasted differentials from Waha to Katy and lower price realizations year-over-year in our G&P, NGL and refined products businesses. We have also not forecasted any gains on debt repurchases in 2026 representing the additional reduction of $85 million to get us to a forecasted 2026 EBITDA of $8.1 billion through 2026.

    圖表顯示 EBITDA 減少 1.5 億美元,因為 Waha 到 Katy 的預期價差降低,以及我們的 G&P、NGL 和成品油業務的實現價格同比下降。我們也未預測 2026 年債務回購將帶來任何收益,這意味著將額外減少 8,500 萬美元,從而實現 2026 年 EBITDA 預測價值 81 億美元。

  • Our expectations reflect an average WTI crude oil price range of $55 to $60 per barrel in 2026 and incorporate normal seasonal dynamics across the business, which influence how earnings are distributed throughout the year.

    我們的預期反映了 2026 年 WTI 原油平均價格區間為每桶 55 至 60 美元,並納入了業務中正常的季節性動態,這些動態會影響全年收益的分配方式。

  • To help illustrate this, we've added another new slide to our earnings material on page 8 that outlines the key factors driving results by quarter and directionally shows an earnings cadence that typically builds progressively over the course of the year.

    為了更好地說明這一點,我們在收益材料的第 8 頁添加了一張新幻燈片,概述了按季度推動業績的關鍵因素,並從方向上展示了通常在一年中逐步增長的收益節奏。

  • On average, we expect to make a little over $22 million of EBITDA each day in 2026. With the first quarter only having 90 days compared with 92 days third and fourth quarter, coupled with the impacts of weather, we expect the first quarter to be our lowest EBITDA quarter each year.

    我們預計到 2026 年,平均每天的 EBITDA 將略高於 2,200 萬美元。由於第一季只有 90 天,而第三季和第四季有 92 天,再加上天氣的影響,我們預計第一季將是我們每年 EBITDA 最低的季度。

  • We expect earnings growth across our natural gas liquids, refined products and crude and natural gas gathering and processing segments supported by continued contribution from recent acquisitions, fee-based growth from volumes and completed projects and the continued realization of synergies.

    我們預計,在近期收購帶來的持續貢獻、銷售和已完成項目帶來的費用增長以及協同效應的持續實現的支持下,我們的天然氣液體、成品油以及原油和天然氣收集和加工業務部門的盈利將實現增長。

  • As Pierce mentioned, we expect approximately $150 million of incremental commercial and cost synergies this year. In addition to the nearly $500 million we've captured since the closing of the Magellan transaction 2.5 years ago.

    正如皮爾斯所提到的,我們預計今年將實現約 1.5 億美元的額外商業和成本協同效應。除此之外,自 2.5 年前完成麥哲倫交易以來,我們已經獲得了近 5 億美元。

  • Our 2026 capital expenditure guidance assumes a range of $2.7 million to $3.2 billion, which includes both growth and maintenance. This reflects a portfolio of high-return projects to be completed in 2026 across our system, which Randy will review in a moment, as well as the Texas City export terminal and the Bighorn processing plant.

    我們 2026 年的資本支出指導方針預計在 270 萬美元至 32 億美元之間,其中包括成長和維護。這反映了我們系統內將於 2026 年完成的一系列高回報項目,蘭迪稍後將對此進行審查,此外還包括德克薩斯城出口碼頭和大角羊加工廠。

  • Capital for synergy-related projects, ongoing well connections and maintenance are also included. As we've discussed previously, we expect capital expenditures to continue to step down in the coming years as we complete current projects. And we do not expect to pay meaningful cash taxes until 2029, both of which continue to support our free cash flow capital allocation flexibility going forward.

    還包括用於協同效應相關項目、持續的油井連接和維護的資金。正如我們之前討論過的,隨著當前項目的完成,我們預計未來幾年資本支出將繼續減少。我們預計在 2029 年之前不會繳納任何實質的現金稅款,這兩點都將繼續支持我們未來自由現金流資本配置的彈性。

  • I'll turn it over to Randy for an operational and large capital projects update.

    我將把工作交給蘭迪,讓他報告營運和大型資本項目的最新情況。

  • Randy Lentz - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

    Randy Lentz - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Walt. I will begin with a comment about the impacts of weather in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Winter weather across our system in the fourth quarter of 2025 tempered volumes in the natural gas gathering and processing and natural gas liquids segments. But this was largely within our expectations for normal seasonality.

    謝謝你,沃特。我首先要談談 2025 年第四季和 2026 年第一季天氣的影響。2025 年第四季度,我們系統內的冬季天氣將抑制天然氣收集和加工以及天然氣液體的業務量。但這基本上符合我們對正常季節性現象的預期。

  • More recently, winter storm Fern caused temporary wellhead freeze-offs and challenging operating conditions, briefly impacting throughput in the first quarter of '26. We estimate January gathering and processing and NGL volumes were approximately 10% below our original expectations due to the weather. We experienced no material downtime in our own assets, and we have already incorporated the storm's impact into our 2026 guidance.

    最近,冬季風暴「費恩」導致井口暫時凍結,作業條件惡劣,在 2026 年第一季短暫影響了產量。由於天氣原因,我們估計 1 月的收集和加工以及 NGL 產量比我們最初的預期低了約 10%。我們自身的資產沒有實質停機時間,我們已經將風暴的影響納入了我們 2026 年的業績預期中。

  • Now turning to our capital update. Our large capital growth projects are progressing according to plan and are currently expected to enter service as anticipated. In the Gathering and Processing segment, our 150 million cubic feet per day Shadowfax plant, which is being relocated to the Midland Basin from North Texas is expected to be in service by the end of the first quarter. We expect volumes to ramp up in activity over time, providing flexibility for our customers in the area.

    現在來看我們的資本狀況更新。我們的大型資本增長項目正按計劃推進,目前預計將按預期投入使用。在收集和加工業務方面,我們日處理能力為 1.5 億立方英尺的 Shadowfax 工廠將從北德克薩斯州遷至米德蘭盆地,預計將於第一季末投入使用。我們預計業務量會隨著時間的推移而逐步增加,這將為該地區的客戶提供更大的靈活性。

  • Additionally, the expansions of our Delaware natural gas processing assets totaling 110 million cubic feet per day are expected to be completed early in the third quarter. We expect volumes to ramp up quickly as these expansions are aligned with specific producer projects. These expansions help to fill the gap in capacity before our Bighorn plant comes online in mid 2027.

    此外,我們位於德拉瓦州的天然氣加工資產擴建工程(日處理能力達 1.1 億立方英尺)預計將於第三季初完工。我們預計,隨著這些擴張與特定生產商的項目一致,產量將迅速成長。這些擴建有助於填補我們在 Bighorn 工廠於 2027 年年中投產之前出現的產能缺口。

  • In the Refined Products segment, the Denver area pipeline expansion remains on track for expected mid-third quarter 2026 startup. And lastly, Phase I of our Medford NGL fractionator rebuild is on track for a fourth quarter 2026 completion. This will add an initial 100,000 barrels per day of fractionation capacity with Phase II adding additional 110,000 barrels per day of capacity in the first quarter of 2027. These projects extend and expand our existing system, adding needed capacity to address future volumes.

    在成品油領域,丹佛地區的管道擴建工程仍按計劃進行,預計將於 2026 年第三季中期啟動。最後,我們梅德福 NGL 分餾裝置重建的第一階段預計將於 2026 年第四季完成。這將首先增加每天 10 萬桶的分餾產能,第二階段將於 2027 年第一季增加每天 11 萬桶的產能。這些項目擴展和增強了我們現有的系統,增加了應對未來業務量所需的容量。

  • I'll now turn it over to Sheridan for commercial update.

    現在我將把它交給謝裡丹進行商業更新。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Thank you, Randy. As we sit today, we continue to see opportunities for growth across our expansive portfolio. We expect our Rocky Mountain and Mid-Continent region NGL and G&P volumes to grow at a steady, low single-digit level in 2026. These assets continue to generate stable long-term cash flows that help fund high return growth across our entire platform.

    謝謝你,蘭迪。時至今日,我們仍然在我們龐大的業務組合中看到成長機會。我們預計到 2026 年,落基山脈和中大陸地區的 NGL 和 G&P 產量將以穩定的個位數低水準成長。這些資產持續產生穩定的長期現金流,有助於為我們整個平台的高回報成長提供資金。

  • In the Permian Basin, we continue to expect a sustained higher pace of growth. Through a combination of organic investments and strategic acquisitions, we've established an integrated Permian platform that spans all of our products and services. This integration creates multiple touch points with customers and allows us to capture value across the full midstream value chain.

    我們預期二疊紀盆地將繼續保持較高的成長速度。透過有機投資和策略性收購相結合的方式,我們建立了一個涵蓋我們所有產品和服務的一體化二疊紀平台。此次整合創造了與客戶的多個接觸點,使我們能夠在整個中游價值鏈中獲取價值。

  • We saw the benefit of our larger-scale asset portfolio in 2025 achieving record NGL and G&P volumes in the Rocky Mountain region and record liquid blending volumes in the Refined Products segment. Permian Basin processing and NGL volumes increased significantly over the course of 2025 as we continue to enhance our Permian system and add new volumes.

    2025 年,我們看到了更大規模資產組合帶來的好處,落基山脈地區的 NGL 和 G&P 產量創歷史新高,精煉產品領域的液體混合產量也創歷史新高。2025 年,隨著我們不斷改進二疊紀盆地系統並增加新的產量,二疊紀盆地的處理量和 NGL 產量顯著增加。

  • The Natural Gas Pipelines segment once again exceeded the high end of its guidance range in 2025, benefiting from the strategic location of pipeline systems, specifically in the Permian Basin and Louisiana. The segment’s outperformance continues to highlight the strong demand for natural gas transportation and storage and the strategic benefit of having assets in the Gulf Coast region near key demand and export hubs.

    天然氣管道業務板塊在 2025 年再次超過了其預期範圍的上限,這得益於管道系統的戰略位置,尤其是在二疊紀盆地和路易斯安那州。該板塊的優異表現持續凸顯了天然氣運輸和儲存的強勁需求,以及在靠近主要需求和出口樞紐的墨西哥灣沿岸地區擁有資產的戰略優勢。

  • Turning to full year 2026 expectations and starting with the natural gas liquids segment. We expect year-over-year volume growth across our operations. In the Permian, we expect to connect at least three natural gas processing plants to our system in 2026, including two third-party plants and the Shadow fax plant, which we are relocating from North Texas.

    接下來展望 2026 年全年預期,先來看看天然氣液體板塊。我們預計公司各項業務的銷售將較去年同期成長。在二疊紀盆地,我們預計到 2026 年將至少三座天然氣處理廠連接到我們的系統,其中包括兩座第三方工廠和我們正在從北德克薩斯州搬遷的 Shadow 傳真廠。

  • New contracts and increasing volume from our Permian plants will continue to contribute to higher volumes beating our West Texas NGL pipeline. This pipeline remains one of the most advantaged pipelines out of the Permian with competitive transportation rates and ample headroom to accommodate future growing volumes.

    來自二疊紀盆地工廠的新合約和不斷增長的產量將繼續推動產量成長,超過我們西德州天然氣凝液管道的產量。這條管道仍然是二疊紀盆地最具優勢的管道之一,運輸價格具有競爭力,並且有足夠的餘裕來滿足未來不斷增長的運輸量。

  • Moving on to the refined products and crude segment. We expect 2026 performance to be driven by steady based refined product demand, increased asset connectivity, continued strong liquids blending and incremental contribution from the fully contracted Denver pipeline project and other high-return routine growth projects. We are assuming a mid-year tariff increase in the low to mid-single-digit range, inclusive of both market-based adjustments and index-based tariffs with potential outcomes of the FERC rate index review incorporated into our guidance.

    接下來是成品油和原油部分。我們預計 2026 年的業績將受到穩定精煉產品需求、資產連通性增強、持續強勁的液體混合以及已全面簽約的丹佛管道項目和其他高回報常規增長項目的增量貢獻的推動。我們預計年中關稅將上調個位數百分比,其中包括基於市場的調整和基於指數的關稅,並將聯邦能源監管委員會 (FERC) 費率指數審查的潛在結果納入我們的指導方針中。

  • We continue to see increased throughput into our long-haul crude oil pipelines from our gathering systems and interconnectivity between these assets has been expanded. Several related synergy projects are underway to fully connect those systems, which we expect to come online this year and in 2027.

    我們看到,從集輸系統流入長途原油管道的吞吐量持續增加,而且這些資產之間的互聯互通也得到了擴展。目前正在進行幾個相關的協同項目,以全面連接這些系統,我們預計這些系統將於今年和 2027 年上線。

  • Moving on to the natural gas gathering and processing segment. We expect our multi-basin portfolio to continue to provide growth in 2026. Based on ongoing conversations with producers, we're seeing plans to hold drilling rigs and crews steady, while continuing to improve production efficiencies through technology and operational enhancements.

    接下來是天然氣收集和加工環節。我們預計我們的多盆地投資組合將在 2026 年繼續實現成長。根據與生產商的持續溝通,我們看到他們計劃保持鑽井平台和人員數量穩定,同時透過技術和營運改進不斷提高生產效率。

  • In the Permian Basin, our broad footprint across both the Delaware and Midland positions us to capture incremental throughput while continuing to drive efficiencies across our existing assets and deliver fully integrated services for our customers. With the Permian projected to grow by more than 1 Bcf per year, ONEOK is well positioned to capture our share of that growth. We continue to see attractive opportunities in the basin beyond those we've already announced.

    在二疊紀盆地,我們在特拉華盆地和米德蘭盆地的廣泛佈局使我們能夠獲得增量吞吐量,同時繼續提高現有資產的效率,並為客戶提供完全一體化的服務。預計二疊紀盆地的天然氣產量將每年增加超過 10 億立方英尺,ONEOK 已做好充分準備,從中分得一杯羹。除了我們已經公佈的機會之外,我們還在該盆地看到了更多有吸引力的機會。

  • In the Mid-Continent, we continue to expect growth from our strong mix of producers across the Cherokee, Cana/STACK and SCOOP areas. We have 13 rigs currently operating across more than 1 billion dedicated acres in the Mid-Con. This acreage spans high-producing gas-focused liquids-rich and crude plants. And we see opportunities under development in each of these areas.

    在中大陸地區,我們繼續期待憑藉 Cherokee、Cana/STACK 和 SCOOP 地區強大的生產商組合實現成長。我們目前在中部地區擁有 13 台鑽孔機,作業面積超過 10 億英畝。該區域涵蓋了高產量天然氣、富含液體的煉油廠和原油煉油廠。我們看到這些領域都存在著發展機會。

  • In the Rocky Mountain region, we saw record volumes again in 2025 and expect single-digit growth in 2026. There are currently 12 rigs on our dedicated acreage, but producers heavily focused on continued efficiency gains through improved completion techniques and longer laterals.

    在洛磯山脈地區,我們預計 2025 年銷售將再次創下紀錄,並預計 2026 年將實現個位數成長。目前我們專屬油田共有 12 台鑽機,但生產商主要致力於透過改進完井技術和延長水平井段來持續提高效率。

  • We expect approximately 50% of our well connects in 2026 to be 3 and 4-mile laterals. This is a significant increase in longer laterals compared with approximately 30% to 2025 and 20% in 2024. Gas to oil ratios at the basins also continued to naturally rise, supporting a stable long-term outlook for natural gas and NGLs across the basin.

    我們預計到 2026 年,我們約 50% 的油井連接將是 3 英里和 4 英里的水平井。與 2025 年約 30% 和 2024 年約 20% 相比,這是較長側向線顯著增加的趨勢。盆地內的天然氣與石油比例也持續自然上升,這支撐了整個盆地天然氣和凝析油的長期穩定前景。

  • I'll close with our Natural Gas Pipeline segment, which we expect will have another strong year of performance in 2026. Our natural gas pipelines and storage assets remain well positioned to support growing demand power generation, industrial customers and LNG exports.

    最後,我想談談我們的天然氣管道業務板塊,我們預計該板塊在 2026 年將再次取得強勁的業績。我們的天然氣管道和儲存資產仍然處於良好狀態,能夠滿足不斷增長的發電需求、工業客戶需求和液化天然氣出口需求。

  • On power demand, we are engaged in advanced discussions with multiple data center projects across our operations and are pleased with the momentum we're seeing. Additionally, recent commercial success on our Eiger Express joint venture pipeline illustrates how downstream demand is translating into new infrastructure. Strong customer commitments led to an announced expansion to 3.7 Bcf per day from an initial capacity of 2.5 Bcf per day.

    在電力需求方面,我們正在與營運中的多個資料中心專案進行深入討論,並對目前的發展勢頭感到滿意。此外,我們與 Eiger Express 合資管道項目近期取得的商業成功表明,下游需求正在轉化為新的基礎設施。客戶的強烈承諾促使產能從最初的每天 25 億立方英尺擴大到每天 37 億立方英尺。

  • And today, we are pleased to announce that all 3.7 Bcf is 100% contracted for a minimum of 10 years. Eiger reflects both supply side momentum in the Permian and increasing demand pull from LNG exports industrial demand and other end-use markets along the Gulf comp.

    今天,我們很高興地宣布,所有 37 億立方英尺天然氣都已 100% 簽訂了合同,合約期限至少為 10 年。艾格火山反映了二疊紀盆地的供應勢頭,以及來自液化天然氣出口、工業需求和墨西哥灣沿岸其他終端用戶市場的需求成長。

  • Separately, we expect to continue to see favorable opportunities to optimize our system, particularly in the Permian base to capture natural gas price differentials. We expect those conditions to remain favorable until natural gas pipeline capacity is added later this year. Our natural gas pipeline assets remain well positioned in our key demand centers and high-growth areas to support long-term natural gas demand.

    此外,我們預計將繼續看到優化我們系統的有利機會,尤其是在二疊紀盆地,以抓住天然氣價格差異。我們預計這些有利條件將持續到今年稍後天然氣管道輸送能力增加為止。我們的天然氣管道資產仍位於我們的主要需求中心和高成長地區,能夠支援長期的天然氣需求。

  • Pierce, that concludes my remarks.

    皮爾斯,我的發言到此結束。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Sheridan and Randy and Walt. As we look ahead, we are confident in ONEOK's position and strategy. The work we've done to integrate assets, build operating leverage and further enhance our portfolio is translating into durable performance and resilient growth. Most importantly, this execution is driven by our employees. I want to thank our entire team for their continued focus on safety and operational excellence and collaboration.

    謝謝謝裡丹、蘭迪和沃爾特。展望未來,我們對 ONEOK 的地位和策略充滿信心。我們在整合資產、提高營運槓桿和進一步增強投資組合方面所做的工作,正在轉化為持久的績效和穩健的成長。最重要的是,這個執行過程是由我們的員工推動的。我要感謝我們整個團隊一直以來對安全、卓越營運和協作的重視。

  • In 2026, ONEOK will celebrate its 120th anniversary. I want to take a moment to recognize the contributions of those who came before us and allow us the opportunity to do what we do today. It is our responsibility to provide the next generation the same opportunity afforded to us. Thank you to our shareholders for your continued trust and support.

    2026年,ONEOK將迎來其成立120週年。我想藉此機會感謝那些前輩們的貢獻,而正是他們的付出才讓我們有機會從事今天所做的一切。我們有責任為下一代提供與我們一樣的機會。感謝各位股東一直以來的信任與支持。

  • With that, operator, we're ready to take questions.

    好了,接線員,我們準備開始回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    (操作說明)Spiro Dounis,花旗銀行。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • I wanted to start with the '26 outlook. Two-part question here. Walt, I was curious if you could talk about maybe where you've built in some conservatism around the guide. I know commodity assumptions maybe looks like one area that screens conservative.

    我想先展望一下2026年的前景。這是一個包含兩個部分的問題。沃爾特,我很好奇你是否可以談談你在指南中融入了一些保守主義元素。我知道大宗商品價格預期可能看起來像是較為保守的領域。

  • And Sheridan, in any given year, you seem to find opportunities to optimize and find margin. I know a lot of times, that's not baked into the guidance. I think Rockies ethane recovery maybe is one example. Just curious if you can walk through some optimization opportunities you've been able to realize in the past that you think are upside to the guide?

    謝裡丹,在任何一年裡,你似乎都能找到優化和提高利潤的機會。我知道很多時候,這一點並沒有體現在指導方針中。我認為洛磯山脈的乙烷回收或許就是一個例子。我很好奇您能否詳細介紹一下您過去發現的一些優化機會,您認為這些機會對本指南有益?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Sure, Spiro. Well, I think that we think that there's a meaningful potential that we're going to see crude prices in that $55 to $60 range to get some geopolitical influence on it now that's popped it up a little bit above $60. But we want to plan for that lower level as we look forward.

    當然,斯皮羅。我認為,原油價格很有可能在 55 美元到 60 美元之間波動,而地緣政治因素現在已經將其推高到 60 美元以上,這可能會導致油價進一步下跌。但展望未來,我們希望為較低層次的情況做好準備。

  • Clearly, if we get a little stronger pricing that could help our spread differentials that could also provide our producers with more cash flow to drill. So the higher prices are always a benefit to us. But we think we've been intentional and disciplined as we put these projections together and we want to move towards that $8.1 billion.

    顯然,如果我們能獲得更強勁的價格,這將有助於擴大我們的價差,從而為我們的生產商提供更多的現金流用於鑽井。所以,價格上漲對我們來說總是有利的。但我們認為,我們在製定這些預測時一直秉持著謹慎和嚴謹的態度,我們希望朝著 81 億美元的目標邁進。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Spiro, when I think about on commercially, where we have typically seen upside in the past, and you mentioned one of them is the discretionary ethane out of the Bakken, where our marketing team has been done a very good job of being able to lock those in at different periods when they see spreads being wider, not just the average what we see over a year. They've been very successful through that.

    Spiro,從商業角度來看,我們過去通常看到上漲空間的地方,你提到的其中之一就是巴肯頁岩油氣田的乙烷,我們的行銷團隊做得非常好,能夠在價差擴大的不同時期鎖定這些乙烷,而不僅僅是我們一年中看到的平均價差。他們在這方面取得了巨大的成功。

  • We've also had on the G&P side, especially the Permian, we have a little bit of open capacity. They've been able to have some offloads, some spot offloads as they get throughout the year as they continue to work with producers and leverage our customer relationships that have been developed over all our basins into that area, and it can grow volume on a spot basis.

    在天然氣和石油方面,特別是二疊紀盆地,我們也有一些剩餘產能。他們已經能夠進行一些卸貨,一些現貨卸貨,因為他們全年都在與生產商合作,並利用我們在所有盆地建立的客戶關係,將貨物運往該地區,這可以增加現貨交易量。

  • We've also seen that on the NGL as we look about between Conway and Belvieu, that spread at different times of Belvieu, and we're able to capture those or lock it going forward. And the same things that are our refined products with our normal butane to RBOB spreads that we look to lock them in when we see opportunities as we continue to go forward and then be able to sell those at different times of the year when the spreads are wider than we typically show in our forecast.

    我們也看到,在 NGL 上,當我們觀察 Conway 和 Belvieu 之間的區域時,Belvieu 在不同時間的擴散情況,我們能夠捕捉到這些擴散情況,或鎖定未來的擴散情況。我們精煉的產品,以及我們正常的丁烷與 RBOB 價差,都是我們在看到機會時鎖定的,我們將繼續前進,然後在一年中價差比我們通常在預測中顯示的更大的時期出售這些產品。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. Second question, maybe switching over to the power opportunity. The slides pointed out a step-up in the amount of customers you're engaging with and the potential gas opportunity for you. Curious when we can expect some of these deals to start to get announced and what they look like, I think you originally said that they were smaller kind of higher-return projects. So curious if these additional opportunities start to scale up a little bit.

    知道了。那很有幫助。第二個問題,或許可以轉到權力機會方面。幻燈片指出,您接觸的客戶數量增加,並且您可能迎來天然氣行業的潛在商機。我很想知道這些交易何時會開始公佈,以及它們的具體內容。我記得你之前說過,它們是一些規模較小但回報較高的項目。很好奇這些額外的機會是否會逐漸擴大規模。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Yeah, they are scaling up a little bit, and we are in some advanced negotiations with some hyperscalers out there that we feel really good about. We're hoping that we can announce something in the fairly near future, but we still need to go through the process and get those to bear. But it is looking very positive on that. And we probably have quite a few that we think are in that advanced stages.

    是的,他們正在逐步擴大規模,我們正在與一些我們感覺非常好的超大規模資料中心營運商進行深入談判。我們希望在不久的將來宣布一些消息,但我們仍然需要走完相關流程並使其奏效。但就目前來看,情況非常樂觀。我們可能還有不少病例認為已經處於後期階段。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

    麥可布魯姆,富國銀行。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a couple of more questions on the guidance. First, can you remind us how much open capacity you have to capture Waha basis spreads? And what Waha spread is assumed in the guidance? Or are you basically assuming there's no spread in '26.

    我想就指導意見再問幾個問題。首先,您能否提醒我們一下,您目前有多少可用容量來捕捉 Waha 基差?指導意見中假設的Waha價差是多少?還是你基本上是假設 2026 年不會出現價差?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Yeah, Michael, this is Sheridan. I don't know if I want to go out and tell you exactly what we have on open capacity, but we do have capacity that we have contracted on the Matterhorn Pipeline system that is above what we need right now for our volume coming up of our plants for netbacks to producers.

    是的,邁克爾,我是謝裡丹。我不知道是否應該告訴你們我們目前有多少可用產能,但我們確實在馬特洪峰管道系統上簽訂了合同,其產能超過了我們目前工廠向生產商輸送淨回流所需的產能。

  • We are seeing good spreads right now above what our forecast was as we continue to go forward, but as a forecast for the whole year. And we think that will go through the third quarter before the next pipelines come online, that will bring that spread back together. It is somewhat of a moving target. We do see upside and potential upside in that if we continue to spread than where they are now for the rest of the year, rest of the three quarters.

    我們看到目前的價差高於我們的預期,而且我們將繼續向前發展,但就全年而言,我們預期價差會比較大。我們認為這種情況會持續到第三季度,直到下一批輸油管投入運營,屆時價差才會縮小。這在某種程度上是一個不斷變化的目標。我們看到,如果繼續維持目前的擴張勢頭,那麼今年剩餘時間、未來三個季度內,股價都有上漲空間和潛在的上漲空間。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then the Bakken, Rockies and Mid-Continent processing volume guidance on slide 16, the ranges are fairly wide. So I wonder if you could just speak to what you think will drive that towards the lower or higher end of those ranges.

    好的。知道了。然後是第 16 張幻燈片中關於巴肯、落基山脈和中大陸地區原油加工量的指導,範圍相當廣泛。所以我想知道,您能否談談您認為哪些因素會導致結果偏向這些範圍的較低端或較高端。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • When we think about ranges in there, we try to put it out there because we're dependent on a lot on as producers complete the wells and bring pads on a time and sometimes they will delay those pads coming on at times or they may speed them up at different times. So we try to give a range of where we think it's going to be, and that's what kind of drives it.

    當我們考慮其中的範圍時,我們會盡量把它公佈出來,因為我們很大程度上依賴於生產商完成油井和安裝井場的時間,有時他們會推遲這些井場的安裝,或者他們可能會在不同的時間加快安裝速度。所以我們試著給出一個我們認為它會達到的範圍,而這正是驅動它前進的動力。

  • And then if we see higher crude prices, you could see producers put another rig on or complete -- put more completion crews on that you could see those growth to more of the higher side of those ranges and beyond. So we're trying to give a range of what we think is reasonable from our experience of operating these assets for many years of producer activity and how just a simple delay for a month or two can swing your forecast, or improve it.

    如果原油價格上漲,生產商可能會增加鑽井平台或完成更多完井作業,導致油價上漲到更高區間甚至更高。因此,我們試圖根據我們多年運營這些資產的經驗,給出我們認為合理的範圍,以及僅僅一兩個月的簡單延遲如何改變或改進您的預測。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    特蕾莎·陳,巴克萊銀行。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Appreciate the granularity in the EBITDA bridge and the details related to the synergies. As we think about these building blocks for 2026, with respect to the $150 million of incremental synergies, underlying guidance. Can you help us risk weight that? I know Sheridan alluded to this in his prepared remarks, but can you speak specifically on how much visibility you have in capturing these opportunities at this point?

    欣賞 EBITDA 橋樑的細緻分析以及與協同效應相關的細節。當我們思考 2026 年的這些基石時,考慮到 1.5 億美元的增量協同效應和基本指導。你能幫我們評估一下風險嗎?我知道謝裡丹在他的準備好的演講稿中提到了這一點,但您能否具體談談目前您在把握這些機會方面有多大的把握?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Yeah. What I would tell you about that $150 million of synergies that was outlined by Walt is they are all identified, and they are in the plan, and they are underway as we continue to grow. So we have a very high confidence that we are going to be able to capture these synergies in 2026.

    是的。關於沃特提出的 1.5 億美元的協同效應,我想告訴大家的是,所有這些協同效應都已被確定,並已納入計劃,隨著我們不斷發展,這些協同效應正在逐步實現。因此,我們非常有信心在 2026 年實現這些協同效應。

  • What I would say, Theresa, is they will comment the same kind of buckets that you see on page 9, where we've outlined the different areas where we have been able to capture synergies, and we will continue -- that's where these are going to come from.

    特蕾莎,我想說的是,他們會像你在第 9 頁看到的那樣,對各種領域進行分類,我們在那裡概述了我們已經能夠獲得協同效應的不同領域,我們將繼續這樣做——這就是這些協同效應的來源。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • And as you prepare to bring online the first phase of the Denver refined products pipeline expansion in mid-2026. What is your outlook for the subsequent phases of this project? And have the expectations related to the Denver refined product system changed at all and parlaying this to another component of your potential pipeline portfolio? Can you provide some incremental color on the commercialization efforts related to Sunbelt?

    而你們正準備在 2026 年中啟動丹佛成品油管擴建計畫的第一階段。您對該專案的後續階段有何展望?丹佛成品油系統的預期是否有改變?這種改變是否會轉化為您潛在產品線組合中的其他組成部分?能否詳細介紹一下與 Sunbelt 相關的商業化工作進度?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • The first thing on the Denver expansion, yeah, it will come up, as we said, mid-third quarter -- it's fully contracted with take-or-pay volumes, so will come up right away during that period of time. As you can imagine, our commercial team is out there working diligently right now to bring the Phase II online as we continue to go forward. We have some momentum in that area, and we're hoping that we can commercialize that sooner rather than later as we go forward because, obviously, it's a very nice add-on project. We build operating leverage into that pipeline a bit out there.

    關於丹佛擴建項目,首先,正如我們所說,它將在第三季度中期提出——它已經完全簽訂了照付不議的合同,因此將在那段時間內立即提出。正如您所想,我們的商業團隊目前正在努力工作,以盡快將二期工程上線,我們將繼續向前推進。我們在該領域取得了一些進展,我們希望能夠盡快將其商業化,因為很明顯,這是一個非常好的附加項目。我們在這條產品線中融入了一些營運槓桿。

  • When we think about the Sunbelt Connector, I had said last time that we had -- we had an open season that had a lot of interest in it, but not enough to FID. And we still believe that the other project out there still does not have enough to FID as well. But we do think we bring in value to bringing volume into the Phoenix area by having access to the Gulf Coast. And our connectivity that we have extensive connectivity that we have through our system and tied into all those refiners down there that we believe that there is an opportunity to be able to work together to be able to bring this much needed project in FID.

    當我們考慮陽光地帶連接線時,我上次說過,我們有一個開放期,很多人對此感興趣,但還不足以做出最終投資決定。我們仍然認為,其他項目也還沒有足夠的證據做出最終投資決定。但我們認為,透過進入墨西哥灣沿岸地區,我們能夠為鳳凰城地區帶來業務量,從而創造價值。我們擁有廣泛的連接性,透過我們的系統與那裡的所有煉油廠都有聯繫,我們相信有機會共同努力,使這個急需的項目最終做出最終投資決定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Thank you for the helpful information with the bridge here. I was just wondering if we could bridge maybe just a little bit more. If we take a look back, there's been a number of acquisitions in the past several years here. And just wondering if you could expand a bit more on which ones are hitting expectations or really which ones might be coming in a little bit below such as EnLink, just trying to square acquisition expectations versus the outlook for '26 at this point?

    感謝您提供的關於這座橋樑的有用資訊。我只是想知道我們是否還能再多溝通一點。回顧過去,過去幾年這裡發生過不少收購案。我只是想問一下,您能否詳細說明哪些公司達到了預期,或者哪些公司可能略低於預期,例如 EnLink?目前我只是想了解一下收購預期與 2026 年的前景是否相符?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Well, Jeremy, clearly, the Magellan we've had the most time to play through the synergies there, spend a little capital where necessary to make the connections, get the logistical benefits. So we definitely have the most progress on the Magellan transaction. And the synergies to date have been weighted in that direction. Remember, it's just now been a year since we brought in and things are going according to plan. I think that they're at the pace. At the time we announced that transaction, we said that there were some contractual arrangements at EnLink that we're going to take a little bit of time to roll off and those volumes would come over to our pipes. So we're still expecting that.

    傑里米,很顯然,在麥哲倫號上,我們有最多的時間來研究協同效應,在必要時投入一些資金來建立聯繫,獲得後勤方面的優勢。因此,我們在麥哲倫交易方面無疑取得了最大進展。迄今為止,協同效應也主要朝著這個方向發展。記住,我們引進這項技術才一年,而且一切都在按計劃進行。我認為他們跟上了進度。當時我們宣布這筆交易時,我們說過 EnLink 有一些合約安排,我們需要一些時間來逐步取消,這些流量將會轉移到我們的管道上。所以我們仍然期待著這一點。

  • And Medallion, I think we've been able to jump into it pretty quickly by being able to bring our balance sheet to the full to bring volumes on to our long-haul crude pipes and really just to enhance the gathering system by providing the full integrated service. So I think they're all on base with Magellan clearly leading the way just because we've been at it a little bit longer. And it's opportunity that might be a little bit bigger given the overlap of our assets.

    而 Medallion,我認為我們已經能夠很快地進入這個領域,因為我們能夠充分發揮我們的資產負債表優勢,將原油輸送到我們的長途原油管道,並通過提供全面的綜合服務來真正增強集輸系統。所以我認為他們都各有千秋,麥哲倫號顯然遙遙領先,因為我們在這方面投入的時間更長一些。考慮到我們資產的重疊性,這或許是一個更大的機會。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. Understood. Maybe coming at a slightly different direction here. I think there was the expectation for the potential for EBITDA to approach $9 billion going into next year here. I'm just wondering I guess beyond lower commodity prices, are there any other kind of drivers to the delta with the current outlook?

    知道了。明白了。或許我們可以從稍微不同的方向著手。我認為,明年人們普遍預期 EBITDA 有望接近 90 億美元。我只是想知道,除了大宗商品價格下跌之外,在目前的市場前景下,還有其他因素會導致價格波動嗎?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • No, I think the difference in our outlook has been really more -- it's twofold. It's producer activity. We clearly saw 100 million a day of lower volume than we had expected in 2025. So we haven't caught up on that yet. And then with the lower prices, you do see a narrowing of spreads across the various businesses.

    不,我認為我們觀點上的差異其實更體現在兩個方面。這是生產者活動。我們清楚地看到,2025 年的交易量比我們預期的每天減少了 1 億。所以我們還來不及處理這件事。隨著價格走低,各行各業的價差也隨之縮小。

  • So I think it's pretty much as simple as that. Volumetrically, our expectations are down a little bit. We still see the building blocks that we have ready to come in here in 2026 that will drive us into 2027 like the Denver expansion that Sheridan was just talking about as well as Medford coming on and the Shadowfax plant. So we've got some nice adds throughout '26 that will give us some strength as we roll into 2027 regardless of what the commodity environment is.

    所以我覺得事情大概就是這麼簡單。從銷量來看,我們的預期略有下降。我們仍然看到一些準備在 2026 年投入使用的基石,這些基石將推動我們進入 2027 年,例如 Sheridan 剛才提到的丹佛擴建項目,以及即將投產的梅德福工廠和 Shadowfax 工廠。因此,我們在 2026 年新增了一些不錯的項目,無論大宗商品市場環境如何,這些項目都將增強我們進入 2027 年的實力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    Jean Ann Salisbury,美國銀行。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Can you talk through the drivers of your NGL throughput volumes on slide 14? Your 2026 guidance is forecast basically flat versus 2025. To your point, given growing gas-to-oil ratio, we would expect growth in NGLs in all of your basins. So if you can kind of just walk through and talk about market share loss or ethane recovery changes, but why overall you kind of have that flat?

    您能否詳細解釋一下第 14 頁投影片中 NGL 吞吐量的驅動因素?你們對2026年的業績預期與2025年基本持平。正如您所說,鑑於天然氣與石油的比例不斷增長,我們預計您所有盆地的天然氣凝液產量都會增加。所以,如果你能簡單介紹一下市場佔有率損失或乙烷回收率變化,但為什麼整體上你們的業績卻停滯不前呢?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • I think when we think about on that, I'll just start with the pocket and walk through a little bit in there is obviously in the bucket we've talked about it for a period of time. We have a contract coming off this year. We're going to lose about 18,000 barrels a day going over to the Kinder Morgan system. So we're still going to see growth in that, but that's going to temper that down a little bit.

    我認為,當我們思考這個問題時,我就從口袋開始,稍微介紹一下,很明顯,在桶子裡,我們已經討論過一段時間了。我們今年有一份合約到期。轉到金德摩根系統後,我們每天將損失約 18,000 桶原油。所以我們也會看到這方面持續成長,但這會稍微抑制這種成長。

  • In the Mid-Continent, it is an ethane story, our C3+ is growing in the Mid-Continent, but we are predicting a little bit more ethane rejection in 2026 than we did in 2025. The Mid-Continent is also an area where we have been able to do some incentivized ethane or discretionary bringing some discretionary ethane on in that portion, and that's not predicted and these numbers continue to go forward.

    在中大陸地區,乙烷的故事仍在繼續,我們的 C3+ 在中大陸地區正在成長,但我們預測 2026 年乙烷的拒收率將比 2025 年略高。中大陸地區也是我們能夠進行一些激勵性乙烷生產或酌情引入一些酌情乙烷生產的地區,而且這種情況尚未得到預測,這些數字還在繼續增長。

  • And then the Permian, we are expecting some nice growth uptick on that, and we do expect that to be in full ethane recovery. So it's kind of a little bit of, let's say, in a nutshell, that's our ethane assumptions through our systems that we have in there and also the Bakken with that volume coming off. I would also say that we do not have -- we had a very good year last year on discretionary ethane out of the Bakken, and we have not predicted to be at that same level this year.

    至於二疊紀盆地,我們預計那裡會出現不錯的成長,而且我們預計乙烷將全面回收。所以,簡單來說,這就是我們透過現有的系統對乙烷的假設,以及巴肯頁岩油氣產量的下降。我還要說,我們去年從巴肯頁岩油田獲得的自由支配乙烷產量非常好,但我們預計今年不會達到相同的水平。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very clear. And then I kind of just wanted to follow up on Michael's question. So the Waha-Katy spread is still pretty wide for 2026. But it seems like maybe you didn't put all of that into the guidance. But I guess my question is just like in '27 when all those pipelines come on and that spread basically disappears, should we expect like basically a further material step down in that bucket in '27?

    好的。這一點很清楚。然後,我只是想就邁克爾的問題做個後續回答。所以,到 2026 年,Waha-Katy 之間的價差仍然相當大。但看起來你可能並沒有把所有這些都寫進指導文件中。但我猜我的問題是,就像 2027 年所有管道投入使用,價差基本上消失一樣,我們是否應該預期 2027 年該價差會進一步大幅下降?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Well, what I would say is we contracted for that space on Eiger and to be able to provide a service to our customers that we're bringing through our gas processing plants that give them and outlet for their gas to continue to go forward. And when we market that gas for them to make sure they have a good netback and that gives us advantages to attract more gas to our system.

    我想說的是,我們已經與艾格峰簽訂了場地租賃合同,以便能夠透過我們的天然氣處理廠為客戶提供服務,為他們提供天然氣出口,從而繼續推進業務發展。當我們為他們銷售天然氣時,確保他們獲得良好的淨收益,這給我們帶來了優勢,可以吸引更多的天然氣進入我們的系統。

  • But as we bring more volume onto our gas processing plants, that volume is all being used right now and the extra volume is what we are able to sell at the spread. So as we get into we are predicting that, that volume will be used for our G&P business and the natural gas that's coming off our plants to serve our customers.

    但是,隨著我們向天然氣加工廠輸送更多天然氣,這些天然氣目前全部都被利用,多餘的天然氣就是我們能夠以價差出售的天然氣。因此,我們預測,該產量將用於我們的天然氣和生產業務,以及從我們的工廠生產的天然氣,以服務我們的客戶。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin Smith, Jefferies.

    Julien Dumoulin Smith,傑富瑞集團。

  • Robert Mosca, CFA - Analyst

    Robert Mosca, CFA - Analyst

  • This is Rob Mosca on for Julien. So maybe related to that $55 to $60 per barrel assumption, do you think it would be fair to assume on a go-forward basis that at that level, you'd expect your Bakken G&P position to grow 1% and maybe if not, what other factors could alter that correlation?

    這裡是羅布莫斯卡,替朱利安報道。所以,假設油價為每桶 55 至 60 美元,您認為未來是否可以合理地假設,在該油價水平下,您預計您的 Bakken G&P 持倉將增長 1%?如果不是這樣,還有哪些因素可能會改變這種相關性?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Well, I think we've come out and said that it's $55 to $60 is what our prediction is going forward. And yeah, at that we -- at this crude level, we are seeing a low single mid to low single-digit growth rate for the Bakken volume, both on the NGLs and on the G&P side of it.

    嗯,我想我們已經公開表示過,我們預測未來的價格將在 55 美元到 60 美元之間。是的,就目前粗略的水平而言,我們看到巴肯頁岩油產量(包括天然氣凝析液和天然氣及石油產品)的增長率都處於個位數中低水平。

  • Obviously, in a higher crude environment as producers have more cash flows, they're operating within cash flow today as they have more cash flow, and they feel like they can deploy more rigs for that additional cash flow, we will see increased volumes coming out of the Bakken and be able to continue to grow our position. Obviously, we have a very large position in there right now. So it's really about growth across the whole basin continue to go forward.

    顯然,在原油價格上漲的環境下,生產商擁有更多現金流,他們目前在現金流範圍內運營,並且他們覺得可以利用這些額外的現金流部署更多鑽井平台,我們將看到巴肯地區的產量增加,並能夠繼續擴大我們的市場份額。顯然,我們目前在那裡持有非常大的股份。所以,關鍵在於整個流域的成長要繼續向前發展。

  • So we really see it as to get beyond that 1% is probably going to be driven by more commodity price increases. As we continue to look out forward, though, we are seeing that producers are continuing to work on efficiencies around longer laterals and efficiencies on completion techniques as well as starting to see the toy around with more refracking and reworking older wells that can bring more on as well. So we look into the future, we think there's some other factors that could tend to push the Tier 2 and Tier 3 acreage into more economical limit at a lower price environment.

    因此,我們認為,要突破1%的成長瓶頸,很可能需要更多大宗商品價格上漲的推動。不過,展望未來,我們看到生產商們正繼續致力於提高水平井段的效率和完井技術的效率,並且開始嘗試對老井進行更多重新壓裂和改造,這也能帶來更多收益。因此,展望未來,我們認為還有一些其他因素可能會促使二線和三線土地在更低的價格環境下達到更經濟的極限。

  • Robert Mosca, CFA - Analyst

    Robert Mosca, CFA - Analyst

  • Got it. That's really helpful, Sheridan. And for my follow-up, I'm wondering if you could provide an update on how you're angling to get more third-party volumes onto your Permian NGL system. And what are your plans if you need more capacity beyond nameplate given that the 4Q number was strong you're adding more plants and you have a pretty modest-sized NGL package rolling to you in 2027.

    知道了。謝裡丹,這真的很有幫助。另外,我想問一下,您能否提供您目前如何努力將更多第三方流量引入您的二疊紀 NGL 系統的最新進展?如果第四季業績強勁,而你們需要的產能超出額定產能,那麼你們有什麼計劃?你們正在增加更多工廠,而2027年你們還有一個規模相當適中的NGL計畫即將投產。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • I'll start with the capacity. We still have right now roughly around 300,000 barrels a day on our West Texas NGL pipeline. Remember, as we continue to look that system. We finally had to look the whole thing and now we're sitting at well over 740,000 barrels in one system.

    我先從容量說起。目前,我們西德州的天然氣凝液管每天仍有約 30 萬桶的輸送能力。記住,當我們繼續研究這個系統時。我們最終不得不對整個系統進行全面檢查,現在我們發現一個系統中的儲量已經超過 74 萬桶。

  • As we continue -- and the question about being able to track third-party volume to our system, there are still G&P operators out there that are not associated with the NGL pipeline that are looking to move on an NGL pipeline. There's out there today as well as there's a lot of producers out there that have taken time rights at existing plants that we were able to contract for that were already connected to or can be connected to. So even though those plants may be owned by somebody that is associated with the long-haul NGL pipeline.

    隨著我們繼續討論——以及關於能否追蹤第三方輸送至我們系統的數量的問題,仍然有一些與 NGL 管道無關的 G&P 運營商正在尋求加入 NGL 管道。如今,市場上也有很多生產商已經獲得了現有工廠的時間使用權,我們能夠與這些工廠簽訂合同,這些工廠已經連接或可以連接。所以即使這些工廠的所有者可能與長途 NGL 管道有關聯。

  • And we've been able to execute on both of those at the time and we see opportunities going forward, not only in '26, '27 and beyond that we will have those opportunities to be able to tice that volume to come here. And with this very advantaged capacity we have on our NGL pipeline and advantaged frac capacity we'll have at Medford, we think we can speak for those very well.

    當時我們已經能夠執行這兩項任務,而且我們看到了未來的機會,不僅在 2026 年、2027 年以及更遠的未來,我們都將有機會吸引這些數量來到這裡。憑藉我們在天然氣凝液管道方面的巨大優勢以及我們在梅德福擁有的優勢壓裂能力,我們認為我們完全可以代表這些方面發言。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Your slide deck references natural gas storage opportunities. I was wondering if you could comment a little bit more about them. Which are the areas geographically where you're seeing most of these opportunities? And also, are these opportunities tied to data centers or it's a combination of data centers and LNG export projects? If you could talk a little bit about natural gas storage opportunities.

    您的幻燈片提到了天然氣儲存的機會。我想請您再多談談它們。從地理位置來看,您認為這些機會主要集中在哪些地區?此外,這些機會是與資料中心相關,還是資料中心和液化天然氣出口專案結合?如果您能談談天然氣儲存方面的機會就太好了。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Yeah. What I would say is I'll kind of break our natural gas storage opportunities into two areas. One -- first area is Texas and Oklahoma, more on the legacy ONEOK system. And that has mainly been driven by utilities going in there. We've expanded those a couple of different times. We see opportunities to be able to expand them more. We continue to see if there's opportunities for us to expand. Right now, those are fully contracted under long-term contracts.

    是的。我想說的是,我會把我們的天然氣儲存機會大致分為兩個面向。第一部分—第一個區域是德克薩斯州和俄克拉荷馬州,更多關於傳統的ONEOK系統的資訊。這主要是由於公用事業公司進駐該地區所致。我們已經多次擴建這些項目。我們看到了進一步拓展這些領域的機會。我們將繼續觀察是否有擴張的機會。目前,這些項目都已簽訂了長期合約。

  • When you get over to Louisiana, with the EnLink acquisition, we are putting out the JISH expansion that we will go from, I think it's 2 Bcf to about 10 Bcf as we go there. That will come on in 2028 that has been contracted as well. We do see some more opportunities out there to grow more storage. There's another opportunity to grow to expand just storage some more, and then there's the pull storage over there, and we think that there's an opportunity to grow as well. We have teams, engineering teams and geology teams looking at that see what can do go forward.

    當你來到路易斯安那州,隨著 EnLink 的收購,我們將推出 JISH 擴容計劃,我認為我們的天然氣儲量將從 20 億立方英尺增加到大約 100 億立方英尺。這項計劃也已簽訂合同,將於 2028 年啟動。我們看到未來還有一些機會可以增加儲存容量。還有進一步擴大存儲規模的機會,另外還有拉動式存儲,我們認為那裡也有發展的機會。我們有工程團隊和地質團隊正在研究下一步可以採取哪些措施。

  • Those are going to be more driven by industrial customers and LNG people that are going to want to need those systems and where, which we've had a lot of inquiry into that. So we do see a lot of upside on the storage and natural gas beyond 2026 and beyond.

    這些需求將更多地受到工業客戶和液化天然氣從業人員的驅動,他們需要這些系統以及需要在哪裡使用這些系統,我們已經收到了很多這方面的諮詢。因此,我們認為2026年及以後,天然氣和儲能市場都有很大的發展空間。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • My quick follow-up is what are you seeing in terms of refined product demand in your system, we are off to a very surprising year where you have seen massive goals, so probably higher on the diesel heating oil side, but maybe a little more on the gasoline. But in your system, how are you seeing the refined product demand rate? If you could talk a little bit about that.

    我的下一個問題是,你們系統中的成品油需求如何?今年開局非常出人意料,你們的目標非常高,所以柴油取暖油的需求可能會更高,汽油的需求可能會略高一些。但是,在您的系統中,您如何看待成品油的需求率?如果您能稍微談談這方面的話。

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • What I would say so far through the year. I mean, you got to be careful to be cycle a little bit through the year. But so far, as we come off in the first quarter, we are seeing good demand, especially on our West Texas system, out to El Paso, which is very, very encouraging.

    今年到目前為止,我想說的是:我的意思是,你得注意在一年中適當地循環一下。但就目前而言,第一季末,我們看到了良好的需求,尤其是在我們西德克薩斯州的線路,一直延伸到埃爾帕索,這非常令人鼓舞。

  • Now, we got to be careful a lot of times demand swings will change based on refinery turnarounds and what's going on in the system. But so far, we've been very good. The central system through the Mid-Continent is performing at or above our expectations for the first quarter going forward. So we are seeing some good demand pull across our system.

    現在,我們必須小心,很多時候需求波動會根據煉油廠的檢修和系統內的情況而改變。但到目前為止,我們做得非常好。透過中西部地區的中央系統,第一季的表現將達到或超越我們的預期。因此,我們看到整個系統的需求拉動良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    約翰麥凱,高盛集團。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • I wanted to touch on the '26 CapEx guidance. Can you tell us a little bit more of a breakdown of where those dollars are going in terms of kind of the bigger projects coming on maybe over the next two years? And then on a related note, how you're thinking about kind of all-in return profiles for that capital ledger?

    我想談談2026年的資本支出指引。您能否更詳細地介紹一下這些資金的用途,特別是未來兩年即將啟動的大型專案?另外,您是如何考慮該資本帳簿的整體回報情況的?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Sure. Well, the keys are the ones that Randy mentioned that we could come here in 2026, the Denver pipeline expansion and the refined products, the Shadowfax plant, the first phase of Medford coming on. Those are all right on target and will be additive as soon as they come on.

    當然。關鍵在於蘭迪提到的那些,我們可以在 2026 年來到這裡,丹佛管道擴建和精煉產品,Shadowfax 工廠,以及 Medford 第一階段的啟動。這些方法都非常有效,一旦生效就會產生疊加效應。

  • Then, we have a couple of rolling over into the first six months or so of '27. And then our larger projects really have been completed and we'll be on to the more ordinary course, what we call routine growth, expanding and extending our system. We've been out there and said that we spend about $600 million, give or take, on maintenance, kind of about $1 billion on routine growth every year. And then we managed to find $400 million, $500 million of other larger capital projects that our commercial team is always out looking for and that backlog is building.

    然後,有幾個數字會延續到 2027 年的前六個月左右。然後,我們的大型專案就真正完成了,我們將進入更常規的階段,也就是我們所說的常規成長,擴展和延伸我們的系統。我們已經說過,我們每年在維護方面花費約 6 億美元,在日常發展方面花費約 10 億美元。然後,我們又找到了價值 4 億美元、5 億美元的其他大型資本項目,我們的商業團隊一直在尋找這些項目,而且積壓訂單還在增加。

  • But we don't expect any -- we don't see any real large capital projects like 1,000 mile pipeline or something on the horizon at the moment. Clearly, the one we haven't mentioned there is our joint venture on the dock, which will wrap up as we go into 2028.

    但我們預計不會有任何——目前我們看不到任何真正的大型資本項目,例如1000英里長的管道之類的。顯然,我們還沒有提到的是我們在碼頭上的合資項目,該項目將在 2028 年結束。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • And then going back to, I think, maybe Rob's question. Capturing more Permian G&P volumes, also earlier in the prepared remarks, you kind of pointed to potential inorganic opportunities in the Permian. Can you talk about that a little bit more for us? And maybe potentially what your experience with synergy capture informs what you could be considering?

    然後,我想,或許可以回到羅布提出的問題。在先前的發言中,您也提到了二疊紀盆地潛在的非有機成長機會,即獲取更多的二疊紀盆地天然氣和石油產量。能再詳細談談這方面嗎?或許您在綜效取得方面的經驗可以提供您一些參考?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Well, we think about G&P growth in the Permian, with the growth that we're seeing now in 2026 is from mid to high single digits, and that's based on contracts that we have today coming on board. We're also seeing plenty of RFPs out there come forward that the volume, either coming off contract or new volume being drilled that we have a very good chance of being with a capture, especially when you think about a lot of these customers are -- customers for us in other basins as well. So we feel very good about capturing more volume on the G&P side going forward.

    我們認為,到 2026 年,二疊紀盆地的 G&P 成長將達到中高個位數,這是基於我們目前已簽訂的合約得出的結論。我們也看到許多招標書(RFP)顯示,無論是合約到期還是新鑽探的油氣量,我們都有很大的機會拿下這些項目,尤其是考慮到這些客戶許多也是我們在其他盆地的客戶。因此,我們對未來在 G&P 業務方面取得更大進展充滿信心。

  • The great customer feedback that we've had and what we've done so far. We have -- as I told you last time, we're at the Shadowfax plant and the plant in Delaware has given us a little bit of operating room to be able to grow with these producers, and that's what they really were missing when EnLink was operating these assets.

    我們收到的客戶回饋非常好,而且我們目前為止也取得了不錯的成績。正如我上次告訴你們的那樣,我們現在在 Shadowfax 工廠,而特拉華州的工廠給了我們一些運營空間,使我們能夠與這些生產商一起發展,而這正是 EnLink 運營這些資產時他們真正缺乏的。

  • As we think about inorganic growth, I think in the comments we were talking about was more about we built a platform with the inorganic growth that we've done so far. We're really concentrated at this time on the organic side of it and how do we connected up to the wellhead or to the CDPs that are out there and concentrating on these RFPs that are in front of us that will continue to fuel volume growth '27 and beyond.

    當我們思考非內生成長時,我認為我們在評論中討論的更多的是,我們透過迄今為止所實現的非內生成長建立了一個平台。目前我們真正關注的是有機成長方面,以及我們如何與井口或現有的 CDP 連接起來,並專注於擺在我們面前的這些 RFP,這些 RFP 將繼續推動 2027 年及以後的產量成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank.

    Brandon Bingham,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Just looking at the $150 million headwind bar on realized pricing impacts for the guide. I was just wondering what you guys are assuming price-wise within each of those buckets and how that might compare to current strip prices and then what the potential uplift could be if you sort of mark-to-market those assumptions?

    僅從指南中實際定價影響的 1.5 億美元逆風指標來看。我只是想知道你們對每個價格區間內的價格假設是多少,以及這些假設與當前現貨價格相比如何,如果按照這些假設進行市值調整,潛在的價格上漲幅度會是多少?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • What I would tell you about is those -- when we put that together, we were at a $55 to $60 or we're going on based on a $55 to $60 price environment. What we typically see, as we think about those headwinds is that is on the spread business, as crude prices are higher, we typically are wider. On our commodity exposure, that's mainly in the G&P business. And we have a systematic program of hedging, and we only -- we try to leave only about 25% open on our commodity exposures as we continue to go forward. So as we think about going forward, that's more like a -- we would see some improvement in crude prices from the $55 to $60 range, we'll see upside into our spread part of the business.

    我想告訴你們的是——當我們把這些因素綜合起來,我們當時的價格是 55 到 60 美元,或者說我們是基於 55 到 60 美元的價格環境來製定的。我們通常看到的是,當我們考慮這些不利因素時,在價差業務方面,隨著原油價格上漲,價差通常會擴大。我們在大宗商品方面的投資主要集中在 G&P 業務領域。我們有一套系統化的對沖方案,而且我們只會——我們努力將商品敞口保持在 25% 左右,並繼續向前發展。所以展望未來,我們更傾向於——如果原油價格從每桶 55 美元到 60 美元區間有所改善,我們的價差業務部分將會受益。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just one quick follow-up. Just haven't heard much on the Texas JV with MPLX. Just curious if you have anything to share, we're kind of the latest and greatest there. I know you mentioned as part of the budget for this year, but just kind of any update you can provide.

    好的。然後或許只需要一個簡短的後續問題。關於與MPLX在德克薩斯州成立的合資企業,我還沒有聽到太多消息。只是好奇你有沒有什麼想分享的,我們那邊算是最新最好的了。我知道您在今年的預算中提到過,但您能否提供一些最新進展?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • I mean, it's progressing. The build side of that is resin is progressing as planned, very satisfied as we're going on that. On the commercial side, is there -- we are continuing to advance the commercialization of that dock. We like where we are today. The momentum is strong where we are today, continue to have a lot of customer interaction with that, a lot of interest moving forward with quite a few people on that going forward. So we like where we're at, and we're excited about that.

    我的意思是,它正在取得進展。樹脂部分的建造工作進展順利,我們對此非常滿意。在商業方面,我們正在繼續推進碼頭的商業化。我們很滿意現在的狀態。目前的發展勢頭強勁,我們將繼續與客戶進行大量互動,許多人對此表現出濃厚的興趣,並期待未來的發展。所以我們對現狀很滿意,也為此感到興奮。

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • One thing I'd add to that is that we have multiple touch points at different levels of MPLX in here. And I'm very, very pleased with the communication that's going back and forth between the two companies, excellent collaboration.

    我還要補充一點,我們在 MPLX 的不同層級有多個接觸點。我對兩家公司之間的溝通非常滿意,合作非常出色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    Keith Stanley,Wolfe Research。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on capital allocation. Would you expect excess free cash flow this year to go to debt repayment where do you see leverage ending the year? And when would you expect to get to that 3.5 times target roughly?

    我想諮詢一下資本配置方面的問題。您預計今年多餘的自由現金流會用於償還債務嗎?您認為年底的槓桿率會是多少?那麼,您預計大約什麼時候能達到3.5倍的目標呢?

  • Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

    Walter Hulse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Treasurer

  • Well, I think it's important to recognize that our 3.5 times target is a self-imposed target. The agencies for our current credit rating provide us a little bit more flexibility at a higher debt-to-EBITDA than that 3.5 times target. So we believe we have flexibility from a capital allocation standpoint as we look forward and have clear visibility down to the 3.5 times. So we may or may not be a little bit opportunistic if we see opportunities in the capital allocation side.

    我認為重要的是要認識到,我們設定的 3.5 倍目標是我們自己設定的。我們目前的信用評等機構允許我們在債務與 EBITDA 比率高於 3.5 倍的目標時,擁有更大的靈活性。因此,我們相信,從資本配置的角度來看,我們具有靈活性,展望未來,並且對3.5倍的本益比有清晰的可見度。所以,如果我們在資本配置方面看到機會,我們可能會也可能不會採取一些投機取巧的做法。

  • But we're still on target clearly with EBITDA expectations lower than they were in 2025 guidance. Our denominator has not been as strong as we thought it would. So it's going to take a little bit longer than we originally expected. But we're on track and we're aggressively reducing debt through 2025. And we still have a pretty strong CapEx project this year, backlog this year. We won't be able to lean in too much into the debt reduction until we start to complete those in the second half of '27, you see that incremental free cash flow really kick off.

    但我們仍有望實現目標,只是 EBITDA 預期低於 2025 年的預期。我們的分母沒有我們預想的那麼強。所以所需時間會比我們原先預期的要長一些。但我們正按計劃推進,並將在 2025 年前積極減少債務。我們今年仍然有相當強勁的資本支出項目,今年的積壓訂單也很多。直到 2027 年下半年債務償還完成,我們才能真正開始大幅削減債務,屆時自由現金流才會真正開始成長。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Second one on the bundled NGL rate in the Bakken, it slipped a little to $0.27 in Q4. Was that increased ethane recovery and what would your expectation be for 2026 on your rate there?

    巴肯油田天然氣液化物捆綁價格的第二個問題是,第四季價格略微下滑至 0.27 美元。乙烷回收率提高了嗎?您預計到 2026 年該產業的回收率會是多少?

  • Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

    Sheridan Swords - Executive Vice President - Commercial Liquids and Gathering and Processing

  • Yeah. That's increased ethane recovery of what you're saying is we had a pretty good fourth quarter with ethane recovering in there. We're still run that trains going over. A lot of it is driven by how much ethane we bring on what different contracts come on going forward. There is a little bit of difference between some of the contracts out there. But yeah, it's going to be in that in that [$0.30-ish] range.

    是的。也就是說,乙烷回收率提高了,也就是說,我們第四季乙烷回收率表現相當不錯。我們仍然有火車經過。很大程度上取決於我們未來會引進多少乙烷,以及會簽訂哪些不同的合約。市面上的一些合約之間存在一些差異。是的,價格應該在那個區間(0.30美元左右)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

    Jason Gabelman,TD Cowen。

  • Jason Gabelman - Analyst

    Jason Gabelman - Analyst

  • Most of my questions have been answered, but maybe I'll just ask one more on the M&A front and more related to the RP and C segment given the success in the Magellan business and kind of your unique footprint there. You've been growing in a segment that most peers have a small or nonexistent footprint. So perhaps you're better positioned to consolidate that part of the value chain. Is there a desire to further grow the P&C business inorganically?

    我的大部分問題都得到了解答,但鑑於麥哲倫業務的成功以及你們在該領域的獨特影響力,我可能還會再問一個關於併購方面以及與RP和C領域相關的問題。你在一個大多數同行涉足甚少甚至根本不存在的領域中取得了成長。所以,或許你更有能力整合價值鏈的這一部分。是否有意願透過非內生性手段進一步拓展財產及意外保險業務?

  • Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Pierce Norton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Jason, this is Pierce. I was wondering when the M&A question would come up. Our focus continues to be on executing for 2026 plan and beyond. And we don't see any really glaring holes in our portfolio right now. So we're really pleased with what we got. We're going to continue to look at things that fit our strategic objectives and especially as our criteria and the questions around that. And we're going to continue to be intentional discipline in our approach to M&A. So that's adding RPC or adding different things, then we're going to look at those. But we're going to be really intentional about what we're doing.

    傑森,這位是皮爾斯。我一直在想,什麼時候會提到併購問題。我們將繼續專注於執行2026年及以後的計劃。目前我們並未發現投資組合中有任何明顯的漏洞。所以我們對得到的結果非常滿意。我們將繼續專注於符合我們策略目標的事物,特別是符合我們評判標準和相關問題的事物。我們將繼續在併購方面保持嚴謹自律的態度。所以,如果要加入 RPC 或其他功能,接下來我們將逐一探討。但我們會非常認真地對待我們正在做的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, we've reached our allotted time for questions. I'll now turn the call back to Megan Patterson.

    謝謝。至此,我們的提問時間已到。現在我將把電話轉回給梅根·帕特森。

  • Megan Patterson - Vice President, Investor relations

    Megan Patterson - Vice President, Investor relations

  • Thank you, Angela. Our quiet period for the first quarter starts when we close our books in early April and extends until we release earnings in late April. We'll provide details for that conference call at a later date. Our IR team will be available throughout the day for any follow-ups.

    謝謝你,安吉拉。第一季的靜默期從四月初我們完成帳目結算開始,一直持續到四月下旬我們發布收益報告為止。我們將在稍後提供該次電話會議的詳細資訊。我們的投資者關係團隊將在全天隨時為您提供後續服務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining us today, and have a great day. Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您今天加入我們,祝您有美好的一天。謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您抽空參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。