奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Atkins, Director of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead. ****

    您好,歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,本活動將被錄音。現在我想將會議交給財務與投資人關係總監 Jack Atkins。請開始。****

  • Jack Atkins - Director - Investor Relations

    Jack Atkins - Director - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter 2026 conference call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today’s call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today through November 4, 2026 by dialing 1-855-669-9658, access code 1955363. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company’s website. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion’s expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

    謝謝你,Dave。各位早安,歡迎參加 Old Dominion Freight Line 2026 年第三季電話會議。今天的電話會議將被錄音,並可自今日起至 2026 年 11 月 4 日撥打 1-855-669-9658、輸入存取碼 1955363 收聽重播。網路直播的重播也可在公司網站上存取 30 天。本電話會議可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述,其中包括但不限於關於 Old Dominion 預期的財務與營運表現之陳述。就此而言,本次電話會議中任何非歷史事實的陳述,均可能被視為前瞻性陳述。在不限制前述內容的前提下,believes、anticipates、plans、expects 及類似用語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

  • You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning’s news release. Consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. As a final note, before we begin, we welcome your questions today, but ask that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue. At this time for opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Marty Freeman. Marty, please go ahead.

    特此提醒您,這些陳述可能會受到多項重要因素影響(其中包括但不限於)Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天早上的新聞稿中所列示的因素。因此,實際營運與結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果存在重大差異。公司不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務,無論係因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因所致。最後,在開始之前,我們歡迎各位今天提問,但請每次僅提出一個問題,之後再回到等候隊列。現在進入開場致詞,我想將會議交給我們的總裁兼執行長 Marty Freeman。Marty,請開始。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Adam Satterfield, our CFO, and after some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions. Old Dominion produced strong financial results in the third quarter that include a 13.1% increase in revenue and a 28.9% increase in earnings per diluted share. In addition, our operating ratio improved by 280 basis points to a 71.5%. While the underlying macroeconomic environment remained stable, demand for our service continued to improve during the quarter, and our LTL tons per day increased on a year-over-year basis in September. The strength of our third quarter results is due to hard work and dedication of our OD family of employees who continue to execute on the fundamental aspects of our long-term strategic plan.

    各位早安,歡迎參加我們的第三季電話會議。今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有我們的財務長 Adam Satterfield;在簡短致詞後,我們很樂意回答各位的問題。Old Dominion 在第三季繳出強勁的財務成果,營收成長 13.1%,稀釋後每股盈餘成長 28.9%。此外,我們的營業比率改善 280 個基點至 71.5%。雖然整體宏觀經濟環境仍保持穩定,但本季對我們服務的需求持續改善,且我們 9 月的 LTL 每日噸數較去年同期增加。我們第三季成果的強勁表現,歸功於 OD 大家庭員工的辛勤努力與投入,他們持續在我們長期策略計畫的基本面上確實執行。

  • I want to thank our outstanding team for their dedication and commitment to our customers and our company. Our ongoing focus on providing our customers with superior service at a fair price is the cornerstone of our long-term strategic plan. Our ability to consistently deliver the highest standard of service through the ups and downs of the economic cycle has created an unmatched value proposition in our industry, and this is something that we take tremendous pride in. As a result, in the third quarter, we were pleased to once again provide our customers with on-time service of 99% and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%. That said, we also know that there is much more to providing best-in-class service to our customers than simply picking up and delivering freight on time and without damages.

    我要感謝我們傑出的團隊,對客戶與公司展現的奉獻與承諾。我們持續專注於以合理價格為客戶提供卓越服務,這是我們長期策略計畫的基石。我們能在景氣循環的起伏中一貫提供最高標準的服務,已在本產業建立無可匹敵的價值主張,這也是我們引以為傲之處。因此,在第三季,我們很高興再次為客戶提供 99% 的準時服務,以及 0.1% 的貨損理賠比率。不過,我們也知道,為客戶提供同級最佳服務,遠不僅是準時且無損地提貨與交付貨物而已。

  • During its annual survey of shippers and logistic professionals, Mastio & Company measures 28 different service and value-oriented attributes. We were honored earlier this month to be named the number one national LTL provider for the 17th consecutive year. In addition, we finished first in 24 of the 28 categories that Mastio evaluates, and we increased our already sizable advantage against our competition. Our teams remain highly motivated to continue delivering superior customer service every single day. We know that the strength and consistency of our service drives value for our customers and differentiates us from our competitors. It also supports our long-term pricing initiatives. Our disciplined approach to yield management, which focuses on individual account level profitability, is designed to offset our cost inflation over the long term, while also supporting our ability to make strategic investments back into our business.

    在其對託運人與物流專業人士的年度調查中,Mastio & Company 衡量 28 項不同的服務與價值導向屬性。我們很榮幸在本月稍早被評選為全國第一的 LTL 承運商,且已連續第 17 年獲此殊榮。此外,在 Mastio 評估的 28 個類別中,我們有 24 個類別名列第一,並進一步擴大我們相對競爭對手原本就相當可觀的領先優勢。我們的團隊仍高度積極,致力於每天持續提供卓越的客戶服務。我們深知,服務的強度與一致性為客戶創造價值,並使我們有別於競爭對手。這也支持我們的長期定價策略。我們在收益管理上採取紀律嚴明的方法,聚焦於單一客戶層級的獲利能力,旨在長期抵銷成本通膨,同時也支持我們將策略性投資回饋至業務之中。

  • Our ability to take a long-term approach to the investments in our network, our people, and our technology provides us with significant flexibility to respond quickly to changes in the operating environment. This flexibility allows us to support our customers with the capacity that they require while also continuing to effectively manage our cost. As a result, we once again generated strong operating leverage on our incremental revenue this quarter. We produced strong third quarter results by remaining focused on executing our long-term strategic plan. Due to our disciplined execution and consistent investment, we have all the necessary elements of capacity in place to effectively handle incremental volume opportunities while also continuing to operate efficiently. In addition, our business model contains significant operating leverage, which will allow us to further improve our profits as we regain density in our network.

    我們能以長期視角投資於我們的網路、人才與科技,使我們具備顯著的彈性,得以迅速回應營運環境的變化。這種彈性讓我們在提供客戶所需運能的同時,也能持續有效管理成本。因此,本季我們再次在增量營收上產生強勁的營運槓桿。我們透過持續專注於執行長期策略計畫,取得第三季的強勁成果。由於我們紀律性的執行與持續投資,我們已具備所有必要的運能要素,能有效承接增量貨量機會,同時維持高效率營運。此外,我們的商業模式具備顯著的營運槓桿,當我們在網路中恢復密度時,將使我們能進一步提升獲利。

  • As a result, we continue to believe that we are uniquely positioned within our industry to win market share, generate profitable revenue growth, and increase shareholder value over the long term. Thank you for joining us this morning, and now I will turn it over to Adam Satterfield to discuss our third quarter in greater detail.

    因此,我們仍相信,在本產業中我們具備獨特優勢,能在長期內贏得市占、創造具獲利性的營收成長,並提升股東價值。感謝各位今早加入我們,接下來我將把時間交給 Adam Satterfield,請他更詳細說明我們的第三季表現。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominion’s revenue increased 13.1% to $1.59 billion for the third quarter of 2026, while our operating ratio improved to 71.5%. The combination of these factors resulted in a 28.9% increase in our earnings per diluted share to $1.65. The improvement in our revenue for the quarter was primarily due to a 13.3% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. While our LTL tons per day decreased 0.1% for the third quarter, we were pleased with the continued improvement in demand for our service that contributed to a 1.6% year-over-year increase in our LTL tons per day for the month of September. On a sequential basis, our revenue per day for the third quarter increased 2.4% when compared to the second quarter of 2026, with LTL tons per day increasing 1.2% and LTL shipments per day increasing 2.4%.

    謝謝你,Marty,各位早安。Old Dominion 2026 年第三季營收成長 13.1% 至 15.9 億美元,同時我們的營業比率改善至 71.5%。這些因素的組合使我們的稀釋後每股盈餘成長 28.9% 至 1.65 美元。本季營收改善主要來自 LTL 每百磅營收成長 13.3%。雖然第三季 LTL 每日噸數下滑 0.1%,但我們對服務需求持續改善感到滿意,這也促成 9 月 LTL 每日噸數較去年同期成長 1.6%。以季比(連續)來看,第三季每日營收較 2026 年第二季增加 2.4%,其中 LTL 每日噸數增加 1.2%,LTL 每日出貨件數增加 2.4%。

  • For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes an increase of 2.4% in revenue per day, a decrease of 0.2% in LTL tons per day, and an increase of 1.2% in LTL shipments per day. The monthly sequential changes in LTL tons per day during the third quarter were as follows. July decreased 0.5% as compared to June. August decreased 1.6% as compared to July. September increased 3.9% as compared to August. The comparative 10-year average change for these respective months is a decrease of 3.0% in July, flat in August, and an increase of 3.1% in September. While there are still a few workdays remaining in October, our month-to-date revenue per day has increased by approximately 22% when compared to October 2025. This includes an increase in our LTL revenue per hundredweight, as well as an increase in our LTL tons per day of 1.6%.

    作為比較,這些指標的 10 年平均季比變動包括:每日營收增加 2.4%、LTL 每日噸數減少 0.2%、以及 LTL 每日出貨件數增加 1.2%。第三季期間 LTL 每日噸數的月度連續變動如下:7 月較 6 月下降 0.5%。8 月較 7 月下降 1.6%。9 月較 8 月增加 3.9%。上述各月份相對應的 10 年平均變動為:7 月下降 3.0%、8 月持平、9 月增加 3.1%。雖然 10 月仍剩下幾個工作日,但截至目前為止,我們本月每日營收較 2025 年 10 月約增加 22%。其中包括 LTL 每百磅營收的增加,以及 LTL 每日噸數增加 1.6%。

  • Based on these results, I currently anticipate revenue of $1.54 billion-$1.58 billion for the fourth quarter, which would be above our normal seasonality. As usual, we will provide the actual revenue-related details for October in our third quarter Form 10-Q. Our operating ratio improved 280 basis points to 71.5% for the third quarter of 2026, with improvements in both our direct operating costs and our overhead expenses as a percent of revenue. Within our direct operating costs, improvement in our salaries, wages, and benefits as a percent of revenue more than offset an increase in our operating supplies and expenses. Our team has continued to leverage the quality of our revenue growth while also operating very efficiently to support this improvement.

    根據這些結果,我目前預期第四季營收為15.4億至15.8億美元,將高於我們正常的季節性水準。一如往常,我們將在第三季的Form 10-Q中提供10月份與實際營收相關的細節。我們2026年第三季的營業比率改善280個基點至71.5%,主要來自直接營運成本與管理費用(以營收百分比計)雙雙改善。在直接營運成本方面,薪資、工資與福利(以營收百分比計)的改善,已足以抵銷營運用品與費用增加所帶來的影響。我們的團隊持續善用高品質的營收成長,同時以非常高的效率營運,以支持這項改善。

  • The increase in our operating supplies and expenses as a percent of revenue was primarily due to the increase in the cost of diesel fuel and other petroleum-based products. The improvement in our overhead costs as a percent of revenue was primarily due to the overall decrease in our depreciation expense that is attributable to the decrease in the size of our fleet as compared to last year. With that said, we are confident that we continue to have plenty of service center and equipment capacity to accommodate additional growth opportunities. The improvement in our overhead costs also reflects the leverage gained from our revenue growth, as well as a continued focus on controlling our discretionary spending.

    營運用品與費用占營收比重的上升,主要是因柴油燃料及其他石油相關產品成本上升所致。管理費用占營收比重的改善,主要來自折舊費用整體下降;該下降可歸因於與去年相比我們車隊規模縮小。即便如此,我們有信心目前仍具備充足的服務中心與設備產能,以因應額外的成長機會。管理費用的改善也反映出營收成長帶來的槓桿效益,以及我們持續聚焦於控管可自由支配支出。

  • Old Dominion’s cash flow from operations totaled $469.5 million for the third quarter and $1.1 billion for the first nine months of 2026, respectively, while capital expenditures were $67.1 million and $206.7 million for those same periods. We utilized $160.9 million and $400.6 million of cash for our share repurchase program during the third quarter and the first nine months of 2026, respectively, while our cash dividends totaled $60.0 million and $180.7 million for those same periods. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was 24.5% as compared to 24.8% in the third quarter of 2025. We currently expect our effective tax rate to be 24.8% for the fourth quarter of 2026. This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we’ll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

    Old Dominion第三季營運活動現金流合計為4.695億美元,2026年前九個月合計為11億美元;同期資本支出分別為6,710萬美元與2.067億美元。我們在第三季與2026年前九個月分別動用1.609億美元與4.006億美元現金用於股票回購計畫;同期現金股利分別為6,000萬美元與1.807億美元。我們2026年第三季的有效稅率為24.5%,相較於2025年第三季的24.8%。我們目前預期2026年第四季的有效稅率為24.8%。以上為我們今天上午的準備發言。接線員,我們現在很樂意開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    (接線員指示) Chris Wetherbee,富國銀行。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah. Hey, thanks, and good morning, guys. I guess maybe we could start off with some thoughts around the maybe operating ratio progression as we think about the fourth quarter in the context of what sounds like is maybe a little bit better than normal seasonality from a revenue standpoint for the fourth quarter. Can maybe just help us sort of bridge that gap.

    是的。嗨,謝謝,大家早安。我想也許可以先談談,當我們在第四季的脈絡下思考營業比率的走勢;聽起來第四季在營收面可能會比正常季節性略好一些。能否協助我們把這之間的差距做個銜接說明。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah, sure. So normally the operating ratio, we have a sequential increase of about 200 to 250 basis points. At least that’s the 10-year average change. That excludes any impact from the annual actuarial analysis that we conduct in the fourth quarter of each year. Always look at that as just a reconciling item to whatever we give for our guidance there. Based on what we’ve seen in October so far, I’m anticipating a few cost headwinds. But I still think that the low end of that normal range is appropriate for a target if our revenue trends continue to hold steady and we continue to outperform seasonality there from a top-line standpoint. So, that would put us at around a 73.5 for the quarter overall. But I would add a plus or minus 20 basis points to maybe give us a little flexibility.

    好的,當然。一般而言,營業比率通常會季增約200到250個基點。至少這是10年平均的變動幅度。這不包含我們每年第四季進行的年度精算分析所帶來的任何影響。我們一向把那部分視為用來與我們所提供的指引進行調節的項目。根據我們目前在10月份看到的情況,我預期會有一些成本逆風。但我仍認為,如果營收趨勢持續穩定、且在營收端仍能優於季節性表現,那麼以正常區間的低端作為目標是合適的。因此,整體而言本季大約會落在73.5左右。不過我會再加上或減去20個基點,讓我們保有一些彈性。

  • Above seasonality top line and kind of at the low end of our seasonality from an operating ratio standpoint or maybe even slightly better.

    營收端高於季節性,而營業比率則落在我們季節性區間的低端,甚至可能略優一些。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That is helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.

    好的。這很有幫助。謝謝你。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Scott Group。請開始提問。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Adam, can you give us a little bit more color on some of the revenue trends? We got tonnage. Can you help us maybe break down the yield trend in October with fuel, without fuel and just the Sounds like revenue is better than normal seasonality. Just give us how is tonnage trending relative to normal as well, if you can.

    嗨,謝謝。Adam,你能否就一些營收趨勢提供更多細節?我們拿到了噸位數據。你能否協助我們拆解一下10月份的單位收益(yield)趨勢:含燃油、不含燃油;另外聽起來營收表現優於正常季節性。也請你談談噸位相對於正常水準的走勢,如果可以的話。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. Like I said, the tons are up at least month to date, 1.6%. That would imply that the revenue per hundredweight with fuel is right around 20%, without fuel is between 5.5%-6%. Some of that is, it’s still very strong. It’s a little bit below where we were in August, but I think that just slightly. What we’ve seen is a further acceleration in our weight per shipment. To keep that revenue per hundredweight ex fuel pretty steady there, I think shows the continued strength of our pricing philosophy and what we’ve been able to achieve. It also does reflect our general rate increase went into effect at the 1st of October this year versus the 1st of November last year. Continuation of good trends.

    好的。如我所說,至少就本月至今而言,噸位成長1.6%。這意味著含燃油的每百磅營收(revenue per hundredweight)大約在20%左右;不含燃油則介於5.5%到6%之間。其中一部分原因是——這仍然非常強勁。相較於8月略低一些,但我認為只是小幅。我們看到的是每票貨件的平均重量進一步加速上升。在不含燃油的情況下仍能讓每百磅營收維持相當穩定,我認為這顯示我們定價理念的持續力道,以及我們所能達成的成果。這也反映出我們今年的一般運價調整在10月1日生效,而去年是在11月1日生效。良好趨勢持續。

  • Like we said, demand continues to remain stable, and we’ll look for continued revenue growth and the quality revenue growth in the fourth quarter as a result.

    如我們所說,需求仍維持穩定,因此我們將在第四季尋求持續的營收成長,以及高品質的營收成長。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自UBS的Tom Wadewitz。請開始提問。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning. Wanted to get your thoughts on comp and benefits expense. I want to see you talk about, Adam, maybe group life and some, I guess, fringe type of pressures, but what did that look like in Q3? And is there an element that is incentive comp or just what are the big pieces that are driving that up? Then how do you look at that kind of Q4 or go forward? Thank you.

    是的,早安。想請教你們對薪酬與福利費用的看法。Adam,我想你提到團體壽險以及一些我猜是附加福利(fringe)類的壓力,但在第三季具體表現如何?其中是否包含激勵性薪酬(incentive comp)的因素?或是有哪些主要項目在推升這部分?另外,你們如何看待第四季或未來的走勢?謝謝。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. If you just look at the total compensation, salaries, wages, and benefits on a per employee basis, we continue to see that up on a year-over-year basis. The majority of that is related to the increase that we continue to see in our fringe benefit cost. We also have increased performance-based compensation. Obviously, we gave a wage increase that was between 3%-3.5%, and then just our people are working more hours. If you look overall, our average headcount in the third quarter was down 4%, comparing favorably to the 2% decrease in shipments per day. All those factors kind of contribute, but a lot of that increase in the per employee cost is really coming from the fringe benefits.

    好的。如果你看整體薪酬——也就是薪資、工資與福利——以每位員工計算,我們仍看到年增。其中大部分與我們持續看到的附加福利成本上升有關。我們也提高了以績效為基礎的薪酬。顯然,我們提供了約3%到3.5%的加薪幅度,另外員工的工時也增加。整體來看,我們第三季的平均員工人數年減4%,相較之下每日出貨量下降2%,表現相對有利。上述因素都有所貢獻,但每位員工成本上升的很大一部分,確實是來自附加福利。

  • That was something that we talked about at the end of the second quarter call that we anticipated that that would be further pressure on our cost in the third quarter. They were. They came in actually a little bit higher than what I’d originally anticipated. We generally talk about that fringe benefit as a percent of our salaries and wages. That came in in the third quarter at 42.8%. Third quarter last year was 39.7%. That’s about a full operating point headwind just based on those costs and based on it’s mainly been driven by our health and dental costs, and that’s just something that I think overall, not just us, but the entire medical inflation has been pretty significant the last couple of years.

    這是我們在第二季電話會議尾聲談到的事情;我們當時預期這會在第三季對我們的成本造成進一步壓力。確實如此。實際上,它們比我原先預期的還要高一些。我們通常會以薪資與工資的百分比來談論這項附加福利。第三季這個比例是 42.8%。去年第三季是 39.7%。僅就這些成本而言,這大約相當於一個完整的營運比率百分點的不利因素,而這主要是由我們的健康與牙科成本所驅動;我認為整體而言,不只是我們,而是整個醫療通膨在過去幾年都相當顯著。

  • Based on what I’m seeing in October, we’d expect that that’s going to be potentially a headwind in the fourth quarter as well. But that’s based in or baked into the operating ratio guidance that we gave.

    根據我在 10 月看到的情況,我們預期這在第四季也可能會是一個不利因素。不過,這已經反映在(納入並內含於)我們所提供的營運比率指引之中。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. But you think the type of pressure you’re seeing, I guess obviously wage is going to be impact, but the magnitude of pressure from fringe and from incentive comp, that’s probably similar in Q4 to what you saw Q3.

    了解。但你認為你們看到的這種壓力,顯然薪資會有影響,但來自附加福利以及獎勵性薪酬的壓力幅度,在第四季大概會和第三季看到的差不多。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • I think so. I think that that’s something that I don’t really see changing much, and especially with respect to the fringe cost. But obviously we continue to manage all of our costs really. But I think looking at the sequential change from Q3 to Q4, a lot of that normal 200 to 250 basis point progression is in salaries, wages, and benefits, and then op supplies and expenses. You may see a little bit of a variance. We’ve obviously got, it looks like based on October, some fuel cost pressure. So you might see that those two line items combined, I expect them to trend about an average, but probably what normally is more of an increase in salaries, wages, and benefits as a percent of revenue, you’re probably going to see that more of an increase in our op supplies and expenses and just the reverse.

    我想是的。我認為這件事不太會有太大變化,尤其是在附加福利成本方面。但顯然我們會持續管理我們所有的成本。不過我認為,從第三季到第四季的連續變動來看,那種正常的 200 到 250 個基點的推移,很多是在薪資、工資與福利,然後是營運用品與費用。你可能會看到一些差異。很明顯地,從 10 月來看,燃料成本似乎有一些壓力。所以你可能會看到這兩個科目合在一起,我預期它們大致會呈現平均的趨勢,但通常在「薪資、工資與福利」占營收比重上較多的上升,這次你可能會看到更多的上升出現在「營運用品與費用」上,剛好相反。

  • The salaries, wages, benefits as a percent of revenue will probably outperform on a similar basis relative to what our 10-year average change would be. That’s all as a percent of revenue.

    薪資、工資與福利占營收的百分比,可能會相對於我們 10 年平均的變動幅度表現得更好。這些都是以占營收百分比來看。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • Right. Okay, great. Thank you.

    好的。好,太好了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jason Seidl with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。請開始提問。

  • Jason Seidl - Analyst

    Jason Seidl - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks operator. Gentlemen, good morning. Adam, I just want a clarification question and then a question about drivers. You said you have basically plenty of capacity at your service centers. Can you put a number around the excess capacity to sort of give us a feel for the progression? Then two, when you look at the driver market, it’s clear that at least on the truckload side of things, it’s been tightening and tightening for terms of qualified drivers. Now, I know there’s not always a direct overlap, but there’s always an indirect impact on LTL drivers, especially as we think about wages going forward into 2027 and beyond. Maybe you could talk to expectations there.

    嗨,謝謝主持人。各位先生,早安。Adam,我先問一個釐清問題,然後再問一個關於驅動因素的問題。你說你們在服務中心基本上有充足的產能。你能不能用一個數字來量化多餘產能,讓我們對進展有個概念?第二,當你看司機市場時,很明顯至少在整車(truckload)那邊,合格司機的供給一直在收緊、越來越緊。我知道兩者不一定完全重疊,但對 LTL 司機總是會有間接影響,特別是我們在思考 2027 年及之後的薪資走勢時。也許你可以談談你們對那方面的預期。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. Well, first, the spare capacity number that we generally talk about is really just on the real estate side. That number continues to be north of 35%. So we’re in great shape when it comes to real estate capacity. We’re in great shape when it comes to equipment capacity as well. We’ve trimmed the fleet back a little bit, as mentioned earlier, and that’s helped us from an overall depreciation standpoint. The depreciation dollars were down actually on an absolute basis in the third quarter versus third quarter of last year. But we continue to have plenty of power and trailing equipment capacity. From a people capacity standpoint, I think we’re in great shape there as well. Our headcount’s been pretty flat all year, somewhere a little over 20,000 full-time employees.

    好的。首先,我們一般談到的備用產能數字,其實主要是指不動產端。那個數字仍然在 35% 以上。所以在不動產產能方面,我們狀況非常好。在設備產能方面,我們也狀況非常好。如先前提到的,我們已把車隊規模稍微縮減了一點,這也在整體折舊的角度上幫助了我們。第三季的折舊金額,實際上以絕對金額來看,比去年第三季還低。但我們仍然有充足的牽引車與拖車設備產能。在人力產能方面,我認為我們也處於非常好的狀態。我們的員工人數全年都相當持平,略高於 20,000 名全職員工。

  • If you think about where we are from a volume standpoint in the third quarter versus where we were in the first quarter, we’ve been able to keep our headcount steady, and our volumes are up 5%, 6%, if you compare just those two quarterly periods. So we’ve been kind of holding steady all year there. But that’s intentional, and that’s always part of our strategy is we try to keep our people employed and keep as many drivers as we can to make sure when we come out on the other side, we’ve got plenty of capacity there. So hours worked had been trending back a little bit on average, and now you’re starting to see some of those step up. Like I mentioned earlier, that’s why the average wage per employee is up a little bit as we’re just seeing more hours worked on average.

    如果你想想第三季的量相較於第一季,我們能夠讓人數維持穩定,而若只比較這兩個季度期間,我們的量增加了 5%、6%。所以我們今年大致上一直維持穩定。但這是刻意的,也一直是我們策略的一部分:我們會盡量讓員工有工作、盡可能留住更多司機,確保當景氣走出谷底、進入另一端時,我們那邊有充足的產能。因此,平均工時之前有稍微回落的趨勢,而現在你開始看到其中一些回升。如我先前提到的,這也是為什麼每位員工的平均薪資會上升一點,因為我們看到平均工時增加。

  • We’ve got plenty of capacity to be able to step up. We’ve got drivers in some cases that are trained to have their CDL, that they’re working on the platform, and we can put them right back in a truck when dictated. We continue to take advantage of our truck driving schools. We produce the majority of our own drivers internally. We train them internally. That’s a big benefit for us. When demand dictates, we can always go to the market. Where we’ve needed to hire, you may have some spotty issues here and there, but overall, given the culture that we have and the quality of wage, generally paying a wage at the top of the industry, we’ve not had any major issues attracting employees when drivers, when we’ve needed them.

    我們有足夠的產能可以拉升。在某些情況下,我們有些司機已受訓取得 CDL(商業駕照),目前在站台作業;一旦需要,我們可以立刻讓他們回到卡車上。我們持續善用我們的卡車駕駛學校。我們大多數的司機都是內部自行培養。我們在內部訓練他們。這對我們是很大的優勢。當需求需要時,我們也隨時可以到市場上招募。在我們需要招募的地方,可能偶爾會有零星的問題,但整體而言,考量我們的企業文化以及薪資水準(通常支付業界頂尖水準的薪資),當我們需要司機時,吸引員工方面並沒有遇到任何重大問題。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jason, also keep in mind that LTL versus truckload, our turnover ratio is less than 8%.

    Jason,也請記得,LTL 相較於整車(truckload),我們的離職率低於 8%。

  • Jason Seidl - Analyst

    Jason Seidl - Analyst

  • Way lower.

    低很多。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Full truckload, it’s probably in your high 90s to 100% turnover. We’re not having any issues hiring drivers when we need them.

    整車運輸(full truckload)可能是 90% 多到 100% 的離職率。我們在需要時招募司機完全沒有問題。

  • Jason Seidl - Analyst

    Jason Seidl - Analyst

  • That is good to hear. Adam, just to follow up on your comments there about the fleet. If we just have normalized growth into 2027, should we expect an increase in CapEx as we move throughout 2027 for purchases?

    很高興聽到這點。Adam,我想就你剛才關於車隊的評論追問一下。如果到 2027 年呈現正常化成長,我們是否應該預期 2027 年期間用於採購的資本支出(CapEx)會增加?

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Well, we have not finalized that at this point yet. In a few weeks, we will be going through our annual strategic planning process to really fine-tune what our plan for next year will be. I would anticipate, just like we saw this year, that our total CapEx will likely be lower than the 10%-15% of revenue spend that we typically see, just based on the size of the fleet that we can grow into. Of course, we have a normal replacement cycle that we go through every year. Then we will continue to have and evaluate real estate opportunities that is on the scale that we look at what our growth potential look like, not just next year, but what does our market share look like over the next 10 years.

    嗯,我們目前還沒有在這個時間點定案。再過幾週,我們會進行年度策略規劃流程,來更精細地調整我們明年的計畫。我預期,就像今年看到的一樣,我們的總資本支出很可能會低於我們通常看到的、占營收 10%–15% 的支出水準,主要是基於我們可以在現有車隊規模內消化成長的程度。當然,我們每年都有一個正常的汰換週期。此外,我們也會持續評估不動產機會,其規模會取決於我們對成長潛力的評估,不只是明年,而是未來 10 年我們的市占率會是什麼樣子。

  • We have been the biggest market share winner over the past 10 years, and I am confident that we will be the biggest market share winner over the next 10. So it is always about where are the right places to add real estate capacity along that spectrum of growth that we would anticipate seeing. When does it make sense to add it? When do you get the opportunity in some high-demand markets? Evaluating all those things that will go into the real estate strategy when we think about 2027.

    過去10年我們一直是市占率提升最多的贏家,我也有信心未來10年我們仍會是市占率提升最多的贏家。因此,重點始終在於:在我們預期會看到的那條成長光譜上,哪些地方才是增加不動產產能的正確位置。什麼時候增加才合理?在某些高需求市場,什麼時候會出現機會?當我們思考2027年時,評估所有這些因素都會納入不動產策略之中。

  • Jason Seidl - Analyst

    Jason Seidl - Analyst

  • Gentlemen, that is great color. Appreciate it, and nice job on the quarter.

    各位先生,這些補充說明很有幫助。感謝分享,本季表現也很出色。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Thanks, Joe.

    謝謝,Joe。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自高盛(Goldman Sachs)的Jordan Alliger。請發問。

  • Jordan Alliger - Analyst

    Jordan Alliger - Analyst

  • Yeah. Hi, morning. I just wanted to come back. I know I think you mentioned demand seems fairly stable. It reflected positive, which is certainly good news. Maybe share some thoughts on the overall tenor of demand, other than maybe comping against easy comps. Is weight per shipment still being positive a couple percent for a few quarters? Are we indicative of that maybe a true firmer market is upon us? Thanks.

    是的,嗨,早安。我想再回到這個話題。我知道你們好像提到需求看起來相當穩定。而且呈現正向,這當然是好消息。除了可能是因為去年比較基期較容易(easy comps)之外,能否分享一下對整體需求氛圍的看法?每票貨運的重量是否仍在連續幾季維持正成長、約幾個百分點?這是否意味著更為堅挺的市場可能正在到來?謝謝。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. The weight per shipment, that’s continued to be positive. I don’t know if I gave the number, but in October, the weight per shipment is up about 3% compared to October of last year. So we continue to see that flexing up, and that generally is a positive indicator for demand. I think that just based on customer conversations that we’ve had throughout the year, but even recently, we just continue to see stable demand trends and feel like that potential is there. Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the world and with the broad economy that our customers are managing through when they think about inventory trends and whatnot. But that’s something that we just continue to stay in front of.

    是的。每票貨運重量確實持續為正成長。我不確定我是否有提到數字,但10月每票貨運重量較去年10月增加約3%。所以我們持續看到它往上走,而這通常是需求的正向指標。我認為,根據我們今年以來、甚至最近與客戶的對話,我們仍持續看到需求趨勢穩定,並覺得那個潛力仍在。當然,世界局勢與整體經濟有很多變化,客戶在思考庫存趨勢等議題時也在因應這些狀況。但這是我們持續密切掌握並走在前面的事情。

  • We feel like we’re seeing some good market share opportunities as we go through bids and seeing some wins, seeing customers asking about multi-year contracts, things that when you read the tea leaves are more indicative of an improving demand environment. Obviously, we continue to see the industrial economy with positive ISM through the year. It’s been in low to mid-50s, but it’s been in expansion territory, so that’s been good. Other macro figures that continue to be positive, but just balancing those with customer conversations. We’ve been above seasonality when you think broadly about it all year, and certainly we’ve seen some months that have, when you look more granular, some months have been above seasonality, some months below.

    我們覺得在投標過程中看到一些不錯的市占機會,也看到一些得標,並看到客戶詢問多年期合約等事項;從這些跡象來看,更像是需求環境正在改善。當然,我們也持續看到工業景氣今年以來的ISM維持正向。雖然大多落在50出頭到50中段,但仍在擴張區間,這是好事。其他持續偏正向的總體數據也是如此,但我們也會把這些與客戶對話所反映的情況一起平衡看待。若從整體來看,我們今年以來一直高於季節性水準;當然更細看也會發現,有些月份高於季節性,有些月份低於季節性。

  • October tonnage is below what the normal seasonality is, but I fully expect, just based on the broader trend, that we’ll continue to see that up, down, up, down trend that we’ve seen throughout the year and think that as we go through November and December, that we can see that trend being above seasonality.

    10月的噸位低於正常季節性水準,但根據整體趨勢,我完全預期我們會延續今年以來看到的那種上上下下、上上下下的走勢;而且我認為進入11月與12月後,我們有機會看到該趨勢高於季節性。

  • Jordan Alliger - Analyst

    Jordan Alliger - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通(JPMorgan)的Brian Ossenbeck。請發問。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. This is kind of a two-parter here. I wanted to hear a little bit more about the GRI stick rate. Obviously, another great year in Mastio with high value for high service. I wanted to see how that’s being accepted, I guess, in the current market. Are you seeing any benefit from truckload spillover? Obviously, rates have been up for a while now, so I would expect that there’s something in there that you might be seeing at this point. Then just to maybe to wrap it all up, just a broader commentary on density in the network, how to think about incremental margins as we start to see hopefully a more continued rate of volume and tonnage and shipment improvement. Thank you.

    嘿,早安。謝謝讓我提問。我這裡有兩個部分。我想再多聽一些關於GRI落實率(stick rate)。顯然,Mastio又是表現很棒的一年,以高服務提供高價值。我想了解在目前市場中,這樣的作法被接受的情況如何。你們是否看到來自整車(truckload)外溢的任何好處?顯然運價已經上升一段時間了,所以我預期你們此時可能會看到一些影響。另外,最後想請你們更廣泛地評論一下網路密度(density),以及當我們開始看到(希望)更持續的貨量、噸位與出貨改善時,該如何看待增量利潤率(incremental margins)。謝謝。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. There was a lot in there to try to unpack, but maybe I’ll leave the last one for someone else. I would say from a GRI standpoint, we have a pretty simple philosophy of being cost-based. When you think back over time, we generally target getting around a 5% increase, and our GRI has been 4.9%. That’s been pretty consistent year in and year out for about as long as I can remember. I think when you’ve got a simple strategy like that, it’s pretty effective to be able to go in and sit across the table and ask for an increase to help offset the cost inflation that we’re seeing in our business. Frankly, in the third quarter at least, cost inflation, when you look on a per shipment basis, has been trending higher than what we anticipated.

    是的,裡面內容很多需要拆解,不過最後一題我可能留給其他人回答。就GRI而言,我們有一個相當簡單的理念:以成本為基礎。回顧過去,我們一般目標是取得約5%的調升,而我們的GRI是4.9%。就我記憶所及,這多年來年復一年都相當一致。我認為當你有這樣簡單的策略時,坐到談判桌對面,要求調升以抵銷我們在業務中看到的成本通膨,會相當有效。坦白說,至少在第三季,若以每票出貨為基礎來看,成本通膨的走勢高於我們原先預期。

  • We thought core inflation would be 5%-5.5% this year, and we’ve seen that trending a bit higher. That’s been steady, and I think that supports when you look at our overall revenue for 100 weight, excluding fuel, and the full quarter was at 5.1%. Revenue per shipment, which is really how I think about revenue per shipment and cost per shipment, it’s been trending higher. Some of that reflects the fact that we’re seeing higher weight per shipment. Our length of haul was a little bit higher in the third quarter as well. All of those are favorable and lead ultimately to long-term operating ratio improvement. So those have been good trends to continue to see, and we’d expect to see that same type of consistency as we move forward.

    我們原本預期今年核心通膨為5%到5.5%,但我們看到的走勢略高一些。這一直很穩定;而且我認為,這也支持你看我們整體每百磅收入(不含燃油)在整個季度為5.1%。每票收入——我主要就是用每票收入與每票成本來思考——一直在走高。其中一部分反映我們看到每票重量更高。第三季我們的運距(length of haul)也略高。這些都屬於有利因素,最終會帶來長期營業比率(operating ratio)的改善。因此,這些都是持續看到的好趨勢,我們也預期未來會維持同樣的一致性。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Eric Morgan with Barclays. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊(Barclays)的Eric Morgan。請發問。

  • Eric Morgan - Equity Analyst

    Eric Morgan - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I guess I will just ask one on fuel. I was curious if there was a lag impact in the third quarter that maybe you could quantify. I do not know if that presents a tailwind sequentially in 4Q. I think the surcharge as a percent of base revenue moved down a little from 2Q, even though I think diesel prices were higher. Just curious how to think about any catch-up in 4Q and if that is baked into the margin guidance.

    嘿,早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想問一個關於燃油的問題。我很好奇第三季是否有滯後影響(lag impact),你們或許可以量化一下。我不確定這是否會在第四季形成環比順風。我注意到附加費占基礎營收的比例相較第二季略有下降,儘管我認為柴油價格更高。想請教第四季是否會有任何追補(catch-up),以及這是否已反映在你們的利潤率指引中。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. Our surcharge program resets every week, so there is always a little bit of a lag effect there, if you will. Certainly that is baked into the guidance that we gave for the fourth quarter, both from a revenue standpoint and a margin standpoint. It looks like it continues to be a Fuel prices continue to be elevated. I think that is something that we need to see come down, and that is what we are hoping for. At some point, we have got to have some resolution on this to help the broad economy. I think that the way we talk about the surcharge is most of our large contractual customers, they give us the fuel scale that we have to build our rates around. The surcharge just becomes a variable component of pricing.

    是的。我們的附加費(surcharge)機制每週重設一次,所以確實總會有一點滯後效應。當然,這已納入我們給出的第四季指引中,無論是營收面或利潤率面。看起來燃油價格仍然偏高。我認為這是我們需要看到回落的部分,也是我們所希望的。在某個時間點,我們必須在這件事上看到一些解決方案,才能幫助整體經濟。我想我們談到附加費時的方式是:我們多數大型合約客戶會提供燃油費率表(fuel scale),我們必須依此來建立我們的運價。附加費就成為定價中的一個變動組成部分。

  • In a perfect world, whether it goes up or it goes down, we have got the same type of profit contribution regardless. I know there is some broad concern about the fuel, and I have given some of these examples before, but for example, from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of this year, fuel sequentially went up 10%. Our bill count, our shipments per day, those were consistent between those two quarterly periods, and our profitability was consistent. So it worked in that regard. But I think there is some broad concern that I have read out there about when fuel eventually unwinds. I guess I would point people back to 2015. That is at least in the past 15 years, the last period where we had the biggest change in fuel price per gallon that year was down 29%. We had good tonnage growth that year.

    在理想情況下,無論價格上漲或下跌,我們的獲利貢獻類型基本上都一樣。我知道市場對燃油有一些廣泛的擔憂,我之前也舉過一些例子;例如,從2025年第四季到今年第一季,燃油價格按季上漲了10%。我們的帳單件數、每日出貨量在這兩個季度期間都保持一致,而我們的獲利能力也保持一致。所以在那方面是奏效的。但我認為我在外界讀到的更廣泛擔憂,是當燃油最終回落時會怎麼樣。我想我會請大家回頭看2015年。至少在過去15年中,那是我們每加侖燃油價格變動最大的一段期間;那一年燃油價格下跌了29%。那一年我們的貨量成長表現良好。

  • We still produced about 6.5% revenue growth, and our earnings per share were up 15% that year. I think those are a couple of broader examples where the variability in fuel, if we’ve done our job appropriately in terms of how we’ve priced out and built our base rates, we can see that come down and be just fine from an overall profitability standpoint.

    我們當年仍然創造了約6.5%的營收成長,而每股盈餘(EPS)年增15%。我認為這些都是較宏觀的例子,說明燃油的波動性,只要我們在定價以及建立基礎運價方面把工作做好,我們就能看到燃油回落,而從整體獲利能力的角度來看仍然可以安然無恙。

  • Eric Morgan - Equity Analyst

    Eric Morgan - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自Evercore ISI的Jonathan Chappell。請發問。

  • Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

    Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

  • Hey, thank you. Adam, just want to go back on something you noted earlier. I know we’ve talked about salaries, wages, and benefits. I know you talked about operating supplies. We’ve even spoken about fuel. But if revenue is going to come in above normal seasonality, yield ex fuel up 5.5%-6%, which is a great number. Like you said, only maybe a smidge worse than August, but otherwise really strong. Why would the OR still be at the low end of the range? You’d mentioned a few cost headwinds you’re expecting in Q4. Is that just fuel, which conceivably should be offset with the fuel surcharge mechanism, or is there something else that’s kind of timing or more just kind of inflationary pressure where the OR shouldn’t also be following the revenue down a path of better than normal seasonality?

    嗨,謝謝。Adam,我想回到你先前提到的一點。我知道我們談過薪資、工資與福利。我知道你也談到營運用品。我們甚至也談過燃油。但如果營收將高於正常季節性水準,且不含燃油的單位收益(yield ex fuel)上升5.5%到6%,這是很好的數字。如你所說,可能只比8月略差一點點,但其他方面都非常強勁。那為什麼營業比率(OR)仍會落在區間的低端?你提到第四季你預期會有一些成本逆風。那只是燃油嗎?理論上應該會透過燃油附加費機制抵銷;還是還有其他因素,例如時點問題,或更偏向通膨壓力,使得OR不應該也隨著營收走向優於正常季節性的改善路徑?

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah, I mean, look, we’d love for it to come in better than seasonality. That is one thing. I mean, obviously, we’re going to have overall inflation that we’ll continue to see from fuel prices being higher. Some of that comes through in other things that you don’t just think about. We’ve seen increased prices in practically anything that’s petroleum-based. There are some other costs that are revenue driven more than anything that could be in G&A or miscellaneous expenses and so forth, that will also continue to be elevated because of the overall revenue level. Look, we’re going to continue to work hard and produce the best operating ratio and profits that we can. I think that we’re looking at, with the implied guidance that we gave, incremental margins in about the 45% range.

    是的,我的意思是,你看,我們當然希望它能優於季節性。這是一點。我的意思是,很明顯地,我們會持續看到整體通膨,其中一部分來自燃油價格較高。其中有些會反映在其他你不一定會立刻想到的項目上。我們幾乎看到所有以石油為基礎的產品價格都上升。還有一些成本更多是由營收水準所驅動,而不完全是其他因素;可能出現在G&A(一般及行政費用)或雜項費用等,因為整體營收水準較高,這些也會持續處於較高水準。你看,我們會繼續努力,盡可能做出最好的營業比率與利潤。我認為,依照我們給出的隱含指引,我們看到的增量利潤率大約在45%的區間。

  • We think about where our cost structure is. Our cost structure from an overall standpoint, if I look at the third quarter, our direct variable costs were about 51%. You go back to the third quarter of 2022, they were about 52.5% then. We’re about 150 basis points better from a direct variable cost standpoint than we were at a period where we had our best operating ratio ever at a 69.1. We’ve got tremendous leverage that we’ll continue to take advantage of from an overhead cost standpoint as we continue to grow our revenues. We’ve got continued opportunity from a direct variable cost standpoint as well when you think broadly. Just going quarter to quarter, typically, there’s 10-year averages for a reason.

    我們也會思考我們的成本結構處於什麼位置。從整體角度看,如果我看第三季,我們的直接變動成本約為51%。回到2022年第三季,當時約為52.5%。從直接變動成本的角度來看,我們比當時改善了約150個基點;而那段期間我們創下史上最佳營業比率69.1。我們在間接費用(overhead)成本方面有很大的槓桿,隨著營收持續成長,我們會繼續加以運用。同時,從直接變動成本的角度,放眼整體我們也仍有持續改善的機會。但若只看季度對季度的變化,通常「10年平均」之所以存在是有原因的。

  • It’s the average type of change, and we’ll see where the weight ultimately lands and the overall revenue and so forth, and how we continue to manage all of those direct costs as a percent of revenue. I can tell you, we’re working hard every day to manage every element of cost that we can to produce the best operating ratio that we can.

    那是平均型態的變動;我們會看看最終的權重落點、整體營收等情況,以及我們如何持續把所有這些直接成本控制在營收占比的合理水準。我可以告訴你,我們每天都在努力管理每一個我們能管理的成本要素,以做出我們能做到的最佳營業比率。

  • Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

    Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

  • Thanks, Adam.

    謝謝你,Adam。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Ravi Shanker。請發問。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, morning everyone. I just wanted to follow up on your commentary on the fleet and the excess door capacity. It is a little bit contradictory to reduce the size of your fleet when you are sitting on 35% excess doors here, especially when ISM is running in the mid-50s, which most people would say is like a decent, if not gangbusters type environment. Can you just help unpack that and distill the message on what you think happens to demand over the next two or three quarters? Because, if you have that much excess capacity and things are getting better, I am surprised that you are reducing the size of your fleet.

    很好。謝謝,各位早安。我想追問你們對車隊以及多餘碼頭門位(door capacity)的評論。在你們目前有35%的多餘門位產能的情況下,卻要縮減車隊規模,這看起來有點矛盾;尤其是ISM指數在50中段運行,多數人會說這是個不錯、即便稱不上火爆(gangbusters)但也算良好的環境。你能否協助拆解一下,並釐清你們對未來兩到三個季度需求走勢的看法?因為如果你們有那麼多多餘產能,而情況又在改善,我會驚訝你們還在縮減車隊規模。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Well, just going back to each of the elements of capacity, if you think about where we are from a shipments per day standpoint, the amount of door capacity that we have, I think we are in really great shape there. I mentioned we have north of 35%. So we can grow into the network that we have from a service center and a door capacity standpoint. That is not to say, and like I mentioned earlier, we are continuing to look at where we are and where we think we can get to when you look over the next five or 10 years and look through the current cycle. Just continue to think big picture where our industry is and where we are within it.

    嗯,回到產能的各個要素來看,如果你從每日出貨量的角度思考,以及我們擁有的門位產能規模,我認為我們在那方面的狀態非常好。我提到我們有超過35%。所以從服務中心與門位產能的角度,我們可以在既有網路中承接成長。但這並不是說——就像我先前提到的——我們仍持續檢視我們目前的位置,以及當你放眼未來5到10年、穿越當前景氣循環時,我們認為自己可以達到什麼位置。我們會持續從大局角度思考產業的走向,以及我們在其中的位置。

  • Just looking broadly at the number of tractors that we have, we did not have a major decrease in the size of our fleet, but we have continued to spend pretty aggressively over the last three years that we have been in this freight recession and had built our fleet size up quite a bit, and we have just been selectively reducing it. That is one of the things you do not want to be short-sighted and try to match exactly your tractor count and your trailing equipment count on a pure per shipment handled basis or per service center kind of metric because you could end up over-reducing your fleet and then having to come right back in and purchase even more equipment. Every year we go through the cost of new power equipment, in particular, continues to accelerate pretty aggressively.

    若更廣泛地看我們的牽引車(tractors)數量,我們並沒有大幅縮減車隊規模;但在過去三年、也就是我們處於這波貨運衰退期間,我們持續相當積極地投入資本支出,使車隊規模增加了不少,而我們現在只是選擇性地把它降下來一些。其中一點是,你不希望短視近利,試圖用「每件處理貨量」或「每個服務中心」這類純粹指標,去精準匹配牽引車數與拖車等後端設備(trailing equipment)數量,因為你可能會把車隊縮得過頭,之後又得立刻回頭再買更多設備。每一年我們都會面對新動力設備(power equipment)的成本,尤其是牽引車,其成本持續相當快速地上升。

  • We’re not doing anything other than just strategically trimming around the edges, if you will, but making sure that we’ve got plenty of power equipment and trailing equipment in place to accommodate the needs of our customers. We’re not concerned in any way about overdoing it as we manage the fleet and manage the related expenses. Having an extra piece of power equipment is expensive to maintain. You’ve got maintenance on it, you’ve got taxes, efficiencies and so forth and so that’s something that we’re pretty strategic about.

    我們所做的只是策略性地在邊際做一些修剪(trimming around the edges),但同時確保我們有足夠的動力設備與拖車等後端設備,以滿足客戶需求。在管理車隊與相關費用時,我們完全不擔心會做過頭。多一台動力設備的維護成本很高。你有維修保養、稅負、效率等各方面的因素,所以這是我們相當策略性看待的一件事。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thanks, Adam.

    非常有幫助。謝謝你,Adam。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Richa Harnain with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的 Richa Harnain。請開始。

  • Richa Harnain - Analyst

    Richa Harnain - Analyst

  • Hey, gentlemen. Thanks for the time. I wanted to go back on the October tons being up 1.6%. I don’t think it was said, but it was up from a monthly sequential perspective, and if it did underperform, it seems like it might have. What do you think is the likely rationale? I know September was a solid month relative to normal seasonality. I guess, what’s it going to take, do you think, to get us out of this sort of uneven recovery we’ve had so far year-to-date despite ISM manufacturing continuing to be solidly over 50?

    嗨,各位先生。謝謝你們撥冗。我想回到 10 月的噸數年增 1.6% 這點。我不確定是否有提到,但從月度環比的角度看是上升的;而如果它確實表現不如預期,看起來可能是有的。你們認為可能的原因是什麼?我知道 9 月相對於正常季節性而言是個不錯的月份。我想問的是,你們覺得要具備什麼條件,才能讓我們走出今年以來這種不均衡的復甦?畢竟 ISM 製造業指數仍然穩定在 50 以上。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Well, I think that for us, the September change in tons per day was up 3.9%. The 10-year average is 3.1%. In October, the 10-year average is down about 3.5%. Right now we’re trending down about a little over between 5% and 5.5%. What I mentioned earlier in a previous question is month-over-month, we’ve had one month where we’ve outperformed and then the next month that we’ve underperformed. Broadly speaking, if you look for the quarters and even if you just go back to the first of the year, we’ve been exceeding overall seasonality all year. That’s something that I think demonstrates the success within our industrial book of business. Industrial is 55% to 60% of our revenue, so we’ve had good performance there.

    嗯,我想就我們而言,9 月每日噸數的變化是上升 3.9%。10 年平均是 3.1%。10 月的 10 年平均大約是下降 3.5%。而目前我們的趨勢是下降約略超過 5% 到 5.5% 之間。我先前在回答另一個問題時提到,從月比來看,我們有一個月表現優於預期,接著下一個月又表現不如預期。整體來看,如果你看季度,甚至只回到年初,我們全年一直都高於整體季節性。我認為這顯示了我們工業客戶業務組合的成功。工業客戶占我們營收的 55% 到 60%,所以我們在那一塊表現不錯。

  • We continue to have really strong performance with our retail-related customers as well, and that’s something that our retail has probably outperformed the company average. Some of that reflects some pretty unique market share gains that we’ve had. We’ve had some really significant growth with a few really large accounts as they’ve given us an increased share of their wallet spend on LTL. I think it’s a multitude of factors, and while it’s not come in completely in alignment with what the 10-year average change by month is, broadly speaking, we just continue to see things as positive and try not to get too hung up on what one month relative to the 10-year would be.

    我們在零售相關客戶方面也持續有非常強勁的表現,而我們的零售業務可能也優於公司平均。其中一部分反映了我們取得的一些相當獨特的市占率提升。我們在幾個非常大型的客戶上有相當顯著的成長,因為他們提高了在 LTL(零擔運輸)上的錢包份額分配給我們。我認為這是多重因素所致;雖然它並沒有完全與 10 年平均的月度變化一致,但整體而言,我們仍持續看到正向發展,也盡量不會過度糾結於單一月份相對於 10 年平均的差異。

  • The same type of thing happened in April, where we started out about 200 basis points under what seasonality for the month was, and we basically brought the full quarter back to what normal seasonality would be for tons. I think like I mentioned in a previous response is, we continue to get good feedback from customers. We’re seeing success in bids that we’re participating in. We also hear some feedback as well that there continues to be some broad concerns about inflation and the consumer that’s probably holding some things back from just completely taking off like I think they could be.

    同樣的情況也發生在 4 月:我們一開始大約比該月的季節性低 200 個基點,但我們基本上把整個季度拉回到噸數的正常季節性水準。我想如同我在先前回覆中提到的,我們持續收到客戶的良好回饋。我們在參與的投標案中也看到成功。同時我們也聽到一些回饋,認為通膨與消費者面仍存在一些廣泛的疑慮,這可能讓某些事情無法像我認為本來可能的那樣全面起飛。

  • That’s why we say we continue to think that there’s got to be some improvement in the overall fuel environment to take some of that concern that some shippers have about the consumer away and to where we can really see things take off and have gangbusters type of growth.

    這也是為什麼我們說,我們仍認為整體燃油環境需要有所改善,才能消除部分托運人對消費者的擔憂,進而讓整體真正起飛,出現那種爆發式的成長。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Bascome Majors with Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Bascome Majors。請開始。

  • Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst

  • Adam, you talked earlier about seeing some good results in some of your bids. I think you even mentioned multi-year contracts, which I don’t think we’ve heard much about in LTL before. Can you go into that a little more and maybe as part of that, the decision to add to net headcount sequentially after really managing the super seasonality with hours in the first half of the year. How much of that is protecting service in the network today, and how much of that is getting ahead of growth tomorrow? Thank you.

    Adam,你先前談到在一些投標案中看到不錯的結果。我想你甚至提到多年期合約,而我覺得我們以前在 LTL 領域很少聽到這種說法。你能再多談一點嗎?也許同時談談:在今年上半年你們透過工時管理來因應強烈季節性之後,為何決定在序列上增加淨人頭數。其中有多少是為了保護目前網路的服務水準,又有多少是為了提前布局明天的成長?謝謝。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • From a headcount standpoint, really it’s been pretty steady all year. From go back to January through September, you’ll have some months that our full-time headcount can be up or down slightly. But it’s been pretty steady as she goes all year. Some of that, though, could reflect, we’ve got some service centers that are seeing really strong growth. You’ve got to add in some places, and then you’ve always just got to balance the number of hours that are being worked on average for your people in one particular location and knowing and understanding what opportunities that are there at any one of our 261 service centers and to make sure that you’ve got the appropriate number of people to not only accommodate managing what we have today, but what we think may be coming to us tomorrow.

    就人頭數而言,其實全年都相當穩定。從 1 月回溯到 9 月,你會看到有些月份我們的全職人數可能略增或略減。但整體而言全年都相當平穩。不過其中一部分也可能反映:我們有一些服務中心正看到非常強勁的成長。你必須在某些地方增員;同時你也必須持續平衡某個據點員工的平均工時,並了解與掌握我們 261 個服務中心在任何時間點的機會,確保人力配置適當,不僅能應付今天的營運,也能因應我們認為明天可能到來的需求。

  • Now, with all that said, I think where our headcount is, I don’t really see any type of material change as we go through the fourth quarter. Seasonally, fourth quarter and 1Q is a little bit slower. I’d expect that we’ll see consistency with our team and no major change there, unless we see a major change coming from an overall demand standpoint. I think we can accommodate what we would see from now through early spring and easily handle that with the number of people that we have in place across the U.S.

    不過話說回來,我認為以我們目前的人力水準來看,進入第四季後我不太預期會有任何實質性的變動。就季節性而言,第四季和第一季會稍微慢一些。我預期我們的團隊會維持一致性,不會有重大變化,除非整體需求面出現重大改變。我認為以我們在全美現有的人力配置,從現在到明年初春我們都能因應,並且很容易處理。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Bascom, multi-year contracts have been around for a long time. I think some of your larger customers that we see come in here for negotiations are seeing the future bright, so they want to go ahead and negotiate their rates up front so that when there is an inflection in the economy, you don’t take a 4% rate increase this year and a 10% next year. So they want to negotiate that now, foreseeing that that could happen, the inflection in the economy. It’s really nothing new. It’s been around for a while.

    Bascom,多年期合約其實已經存在很久了。我認為我們看到一些較大型客戶來這裡談判時,對未來相當看好,所以他們想先把費率談好,這樣當經濟出現拐點時,你就不會今年只漲 4%,明年卻要漲 10%。因此他們想現在就先談定,因為他們預見經濟可能會出現那個拐點。這真的不是什麼新鮮事。已經行之有年。

  • Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst

  • Just the terms of that typical contract, do they specify pricing and not volume? Is there some flexibility on both? Can you just give us a sense of what you’re committing to and what the customer’s committing to when you do sign up for 2, 3 years at a time?

    就一般合約條款而言,它們是規定價格而不是規定量嗎?兩者是否都有一些彈性?你能否讓我們了解一下,當你們一次簽 2、3 年時,你們承諾的是什麼、客戶承諾的又是什麼?

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. It’s prevalent for a 2-year contract. Not really beyond that. We don’t like to negotiate beyond a 2 year. It’s basically based on base rate increases, and not really volume increases.

    是的。兩年期合約相當常見。基本上不太會超過那個期限。我們不太喜歡談到超過兩年。它主要是以基本費率調升為基礎,而不太是以運量增加為基礎。

  • Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you, Marty.

    謝謝你,Marty。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Just the contracted terms, Bascom.

    我指的是合約條款,Bascom。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • There’s no volume commitments in there, but obviously it’s built around understanding what lanes we’d be awarded and whatnot. But that’s just another indicator point, like Marty said, that another point of positivity, if you want to call it, that people are trying to get ahead of some things that they foresee changing in the space overall and perhaps with competitor behavior and so forth. Thank you.

    裡面沒有運量承諾,但顯然它是建立在理解我們會被授予哪些運輸路線(lanes)等等之上。但這也只是另一個指標點,如同 Marty 說的,如果你要這麼稱呼的話,是另一個正向訊號:人們正試圖提前因應他們預見在整體市場環境中可能出現的變化,也可能包括競爭對手的行為等等。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Ari Rosa with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自花旗集團(Citigroup)的 Ari Rosa。請開始提問。

  • Ari Rosa - Analyst

    Ari Rosa - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. I wanted to continue on Bascom’s line of questioning, just on this subject of somewhat more constructive customer conversations. I was hoping you could speak to what might have changed in the environment that’s driving that. As we think about taking a step back, volumes have been under pressure now for several years at least. How should we think about the opportunity to get back to growth, get back to that trajectory that we’re used to seeing from OD of taking share. Adam, I think you spoke about a lot of confidence on continuing to win share over a 10-year period, but as we think about the next 1 to 2 years, how should we think about the opportunity to do that in a meaningful way, and what would drive that beyond just a macro inflection. Thanks.

    嗨,早安。我想延續 Bascom 的提問脈絡,聚焦在「與客戶的對話變得更具建設性」這個主題。我想請你談談,究竟是環境中哪些因素改變,促使出現這樣的情況。如果我們退一步來看,至少過去幾年出貨量一直承受壓力。我們應該如何看待重回成長、回到我們習慣看到 OD 透過搶占市占而走出的那條成長軌跡的機會?Adam,我記得你提到對於未來 10 年持續贏得市占很有信心;但若看未來 1 到 2 年,我們應該如何看待以有意義的方式做到這件事的機會?除了總體環境出現拐點之外,還會由什麼因素驅動?謝謝。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Well, at the end of the day, service is what wins share in our industry, and as indicated by the most recent Mastio analysis, it’s our 17th straight year of winning that award, being the number one national LTL carrier, and the gap is bigger than it’s ever been. I think that’s some of the feedback that we’ve heard this year is that some competitors increasingly have had some service issues. That’s something that I think continues to play in our favor. We’ve got a stronger value proposition than anyone in the space. I think that’s ultimately why we’re confident that we’ll continue to win more market share than anyone. The other piece of that, though, is having capacity.

    嗯,歸根結底,在我們這個產業,服務才是贏得市占的關鍵。而且如同最新的 Mastio 分析所顯示,這是我們連續第 17 年拿下該獎項,成為全國第一的 LTL 承運商,而且領先差距比以往任何時候都更大。我認為今年我們聽到的一些回饋是,部分競爭對手的服務問題愈來愈多。這點我認為會持續對我們有利。我們的價值主張比同業任何一家都更強。我想這也是我們最終有信心能持續贏得比任何人更多市占的原因。不過,另一個面向是產能。

  • While capacity is not really been at the forefront of many shippers’ minds perhaps the last couple of years that overall demand has been lackluster, that is something that we’re hearing come into play a little more, especially when it comes to equipment and driver availability. By trying to keep cost as low as they possibly can, I think that’s leading to some competitors that are struggling to make consistent pickups. When customers need to make sure their freight’s picked up and delivered when promised, they know who they can call on for that. Those are the factors that I think will continue to support our ability to win more market share than anyone else. I don’t really foresee that capacity piece when we look at some capacity metrics of shipments per day per service center.

    雖然在過去幾年整體需求疲弱的情況下,產能可能並不是許多託運人最優先考量的議題,但我們確實聽到它開始更常被提及,尤其是在設備與司機可用性方面。我認為,為了盡可能壓低成本,導致一些競爭對手在維持穩定提貨方面遇到困難。當客戶需要確保貨物能按承諾被提貨並準時送達時,他們知道該找誰。我認為這些因素將持續支撐我們比其他任何人更能贏得市占。就產能這一塊而言,當我們看一些產能指標(例如每個服務中心每日出貨量)時,我並不太預期會有太大變化。

  • There’s a lot of similarity for where some of our competitors are at the end of 2025, similar to where they were in 2022. We continue to see a capacity-constrained industry, but an industry overall that’s got favorable tailwinds for it. Sitting as the carrier that’s got better service and a tremendous amount of capacity, those are the main factors that support why we believe we’ll be the biggest market share winner over the next 10 years.

    我們看到不少競爭對手在 2025 年底的狀態,與他們在 2022 年時相當類似。我們仍然看到這是一個產能受限的產業,但整體而言也具備有利的順風因素。作為一家同時擁有更好服務與大量產能的承運商,這些就是支撐我們相信未來 10 年我們將成為最大市占贏家的主要因素。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Ari, as we said earlier, we’re also seeing an increase in our weight per shipment, and that basically means that customers are putting more widgets on a pallet. We think some of that’s coming from the full truckload industry that’s having capacity constraints at the moment. I think that’s where some of that’s coming from as well.

    Ari,如同我們先前提到的,我們也看到每票貨的重量在增加,這基本上代表客戶在同一個棧板上放了更多產品。我們認為其中一部分是因為整車運輸(Full Truckload)產業目前正面臨產能限制。我想這也是部分原因。

  • Ari Rosa - Analyst

    Ari Rosa - Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thank you.

    非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。請開始提問。

  • Stephanie Moore - Analyst

    Stephanie Moore - Analyst

  • Great. Good morning. Thank you so much. Maybe if I think about just long term, your strategy as it relates to the 3PL channel, I just think given the capacity you have in the network today, is there an opportunity to maybe be a bit more flexible in using 3PLs? I would love just to get some updated thoughts there. Thank you.

    好的。早安。非常感謝。如果我從長期角度來看,你們在 3PL 通路相關的策略——考量到你們目前網路中的產能,我想問是否有機會在使用 3PL 上更具彈性一些?我很希望聽到你們最新的想法。謝謝。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Stephanie, if you are talking about dynamic or transactional type pricing, the answer to that is no. 95% of what we do with 3PLs is basically contract a business per customer so we can look at their handling characteristics and so forth. But yeah, as I said earlier on earlier calls, we have 3PLs in here every week. So far this week, we have had two large ones, and they are in here discussing long-term contractual business, which we like better. It operates better for us as well.

    Stephanie,如果你指的是動態或交易型的定價,那答案是否定的。我們與 3PL 合作的 95% 基本上是以客戶為單位簽訂合約型業務,這樣我們就能評估他們的操作/處理特性等等。不過,是的,正如我在先前的電話會議中提到的,我們每週都有 3PL 來訪。就本週而言,我們已經接待了兩家大型 3PL,他們來這裡討論我們偏好的長期合約型業務。這樣的模式對我們的營運也更好。

  • Stephanie Moore - Analyst

    Stephanie Moore - Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. Thank you so much.

    好的,了解。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Ken Hoexter。請開始提問。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • Hey, great. Good morning. Adam, just to follow up on your last answer to Ari, you gave a balanced econ view, yet you are guiding unseasonable revenue jump, and improving weight per shipment as Marty just mentioned. But hearing that regional capacity pressures, is that popping up as for why the unseasonable revenue jump? Then you mentioned data centers as a driver. Obviously, we hear about that as for ISM. What participation does the sector, the LTL sector play, in terms of data centers? Or is there not much, and given that is really been a big driver, that is why you are not seeing much of the growth flow down to the sector?

    嗨,很好。早安。Adam,我想追問你剛才對 Ari 的最後一個回答:你對經濟的看法相對均衡,但你們卻在指引中提到非季節性的營收跳升,以及如 Marty 剛提到的每票貨重量改善。但同時又聽到區域性產能壓力,這是否正是造成非季節性營收跳升的原因?另外你提到資料中心是驅動因素。我們當然也在 ISM 的脈絡下聽到這點。就資料中心而言,LTL 產業在其中扮演什麼角色、參與度如何?還是其實不多;而且既然那一直是很大的驅動因素,是否因此你沒有看到太多成長傳導到這個產業?

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Yeah. Well, a couple things. All year we’ve seen, as we’ve talked about, our volumes be above seasonality, so we want to see continued strong Volume performance as we go through Q4 and October benefits a little bit, that 22% revenue growth that we’re seeing benefits a little bit by having the GRI in there one month earlier than last year. I think just overall reflects the consistency and strength that we’ve continued to see with our pricing this year and continuing to win business. So all of that goes into the revenue guide being above seasonal and from an overall data center and AI infrastructure build-out. It’s hard to put a number on it, but the size and scale of many of those facilities, I think a lot of that freight is maybe ending up on flatbeds and some other sectors.

    是的。嗯,有幾點。今年以來我們一直看到——如同我們討論過的——我們的量一直高於季節性,因此我們希望在第四季持續看到強勁的量能表現;而 10 月也有一些助益。我們看到的 22% 營收成長,也部分受惠於一般運價調升(GRI)比去年提早一個月反映。我認為整體上這反映了我們今年持續看到的定價一致性與強度,以及持續贏得新業務。因此,這些因素共同使得營收指引高於季節性;至於整體資料中心與 AI 基礎設施建置方面,很難量化成一個數字,但由於許多此類設施的規模與體量,我認為其中不少貨量可能會走平板車(flatbed)以及其他一些運輸領域。

  • But a lot of that freight is very high value and it’s something that we can serve and, in some cases, we are serving and being able to handle. Based on the quality of our service and these very high-value goods, that’s something where shippers can trust that we’ll deliver that freight, get it in there. I think a lot of that is very time sensitive as well, not just the security based on the value of the product. That is some incremental opportunity, I think, for us in particular.

    但其中也有很多貨物屬於高價值品項,是我們能夠服務的,而且在某些情況下我們確實正在承運並具備處理能力。基於我們的服務品質,以及這些非常高價值的貨物,託運人可以信任我們能把貨送達並順利送進場。我認為其中很多也非常講求時效,不只是因為產品價值而需要安全性。我想這對我們而言,尤其是我們,會是一些增量機會。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from David Vernon with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

    下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。請開始。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys. Long time listener, first time caller. I appreciate you taking the question here. As you think about the capacity for the industry in itself, you mentioned earlier, some competitors having trouble making pickups, maybe some volume bleeding in, share take opportunities, things like that. If you just step back and think about the constraints the industry might have dealing with more volume if and when it shows up, does it come down to drivers? Does it come down to dock labor? Does it come down to real estate? Where do you think the real advantage you have in terms of being able to spool up the network is relative to the rest of the LTL industry?

    嘿,各位早安。長期聽眾,第一次來電。感謝你們在這裡讓我提問。談到整個產業本身的運能,你們先前提到有些競爭對手在提貨方面遇到困難,可能有一些貨量外溢、搶占市占的機會之類的。如果你退一步思考,當貨量在未來某個時點出現或回升時,產業在承接更多貨量方面可能面臨的限制,是出在司機嗎?是出在碼頭勞工嗎?是出在不動產嗎?相較於其他 LTL 產業同業,你認為你們在能夠快速擴張網路(spool up the network)方面真正的優勢在哪裡?

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Really, it is all of the above. I think that service center capacity generally for the industry is tight. It was before Yellow closed their doors in 2023, and I think it remains tight to this day. When you think about the number of service centers that have left the market overall and the overall volume environment, net-net has been down since 2022. But I think that when looking at the allocation of a real estate capacity, I do not see that that would be something that is going to materially change from now going forward. Because I do not know that adding new service centers is incredibly expensive, and we have got returns on invested capital of 25%-30%. So we have done our due diligence from a capital allocation standpoint, where we have added capacity and making sure that we get an appropriate return.

    其實,以上皆是。我認為就整個產業而言,服務中心的產能普遍偏緊。在 Yellow 於 2023 年關門之前就是如此,而我認為直到今天仍然偏緊。當你想到整體市場退出的服務中心數量,以及整體貨量環境,總體而言,自 2022 年以來是下滑的。但我認為,從不動產產能配置的角度來看,我不認為這會是從現在往後會出現實質性改變的事情。因為我不確定新增服務中心是否真的非常昂貴,而且我們的投入資本報酬率(ROIC)有 25%–30%。因此,從資本配置的角度,我們已做過盡職調查:在哪裡增加產能,並確保能取得適當的報酬。

  • I think the lack of return for some of the other carriers in the industry was probably part of the reason why practically every other carrier had shrunk their service center network overall, in the 10 years leading up to that event in 2023. So I think that will be something that will continue to be more of a longer term advantage for us. But I think the other challenge in the short run is generally more confined by labor capacity. And we are fortunate that we are operating where we are, that we can maintain excess labor capacity, as we discussed earlier. But I think that for some of our competitors, at least the publicly traded competitor group on average, operated in the second quarter at about a 90.

    我認為,產業內部分其他承運商缺乏報酬,可能是為什麼在 2023 年那個事件之前的 10 年裡,幾乎所有其他承運商都縮減了其整體服務中心網路的一部分原因。所以我認為,這將會持續成為我們較長期的一項優勢。但我認為短期內的另一個挑戰,通常更多是受限於勞動力產能。我們很幸運,因為我們的營運所在區域使我們能維持多餘的勞動力產能,如同我們先前討論的。但我認為對於我們的一些競爭對手而言,至少就公開上市的同業群體平均來看,第二季的營運比率大約在 90 左右。

  • If you are operating at a 90, even with tonnage growth, probably got some other issues, and you are probably trying to manage cost in a little different way. And most carriers, or at least for us, 65% of our total costs are salaries, wages, and benefits. So that becomes the element that you try to trim back as tightly as you can. And so I think that is the reason why you hear of the service disruptions and missed pickups. It is generally a lack of labor capacity in the short run.

    如果你是在 90 的水準運作,即使貨運噸數成長,可能也還有其他問題,而且你可能會用稍微不同的方式來管理成本。而對大多數承運商而言,或至少對我們來說,我們總成本的 65% 是薪資、工資與福利。因此,這就成為你會盡可能緊縮的那個要素。所以我認為,這就是為什麼你會聽到服務中斷與錯過提貨的情況。短期來看,通常就是勞動力產能不足。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • Has the frequency of those comments from customers changed since the second quarter, or has it just been consistent? You mentioned that you would expect it to pick up a lot if volumes got a little stronger. I am just wondering if that has followed through.

    自第二季以來,客戶這類評論的頻率有改變嗎?還是一直都差不多?你提到如果貨量稍微轉強,你預期這種情況會明顯增加。我只是想知道這是否有延續發生。

  • Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

    Adam Satterfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Assistant Secretary

  • Well, I think it has been pretty steady all year, but I think that is something that as generally the industry was busier in the third quarter than the second, any incremental shipment is probably putting more pressure on some of those that maybe have labor or equipment constraints. It probably picked up a little bit, and it is probably evidenced, too, in the Mastio results. I think a few of the carriers went backwards, if you will. Some of that all comes into play, the feedback that we might hear through our sales team and from customers directly manifests itself and what those results often look like.

    我認為今年以來一直相當穩定,但我認為,隨著整體產業在第三季比第二季更忙,任何新增的出貨量都可能會對那些可能有人力或設備限制的業者造成更大壓力。這種情況可能稍微增加了一些,而這也可能在 Mastio 的結果中有所反映。我想有幾家承運商的表現如果你要這麼說的話,是往後退的。這些因素都會交互影響;我們透過業務團隊以及客戶直接聽到的回饋,往往也會反映在那些結果通常呈現的樣貌上。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty Freeman for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Marty Freeman,請他做任何結語。

  • Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kevin Freeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you all today for your participation. We appreciate your questions, and please feel free to give us a call if you have anything further. Thanks, and I hope you have a great day.

    感謝各位今天的參與。我們很感謝你們的提問,如有任何進一步問題,歡迎隨時致電給我們。謝謝,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

    本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。