奧多明尼昂貨運 (ODFL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Old Dominion Freight Line Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Old Dominion Freight Line 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Drew Andersen. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給 Drew Andersen。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call for Old Dominion Freight Line. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning today and through February 8, 2023, by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529, access code 2673176. The replay of the webcast may also be accessed for 30 days at the company's website.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到 Old Dominion Freight Line 第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。今天的電話正在錄製中，從今天開始到 2023 年 2 月 8 日，可通過撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，訪問代碼 2673176 重播。也可以在公司網站上訪問網絡廣播的重播，為期 30 天.

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements, among others, regarding Old Dominion's expected financial and operating performance. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Without limiting the foregoing, the words believes, anticipates, plans, expects and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Old Dominion 預期財務和經營業績的陳述等。為此，本次電話會議期間作出的任何非歷史事實陳述均可被視為前瞻性陳述。在不限制前述規定的情況下，相信、預期、計劃、期望和類似表達的詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

You are hereby cautioned that these statements may be affected by the important factors, among others, set forth in Old Dominion's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in this morning's news release, and consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

特此提醒您，這些陳述可能會受到 Old Dominion 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天上午的新聞稿中規定的重要因素的影響，因此，實際運營和結果可能與結果存在重大差異在前瞻性陳述中討論。公司不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

As a final note, before we begin today, we welcome your questions, but we ask in fairness to all that you limit yourself to just one question at a time before returning to the queue. Thank you for your cooperation.

最後一點，在今天開始之前，我們歡迎您提出問題，但我們公平地要求您在返回隊列之前一次只回答一個問題。謝謝您的合作。

At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to the company's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Greg Gantt. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，為了開場白，我想將會議轉交給公司總裁兼首席執行官 Greg Gantt 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Marty Freeman, our COO; and Adam Satterfield, our CFO. After some brief remarks, we will be glad to take your questions.

早上好，歡迎來到我們的第四季度電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席運營官 Marty Freeman；和我們的首席財務官 Adam Satterfield。在簡短的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

The Old Dominion team produced fourth quarter financial results that allowed us to finish the year with company records for annual revenue and profitability. We extended our track record of success and delivered the 10th straight quarter with both an increase in revenue and improvement in our operating ratio. As a result, the fourth quarter of 2022 was also the 10th straight quarter where we produced double-digit growth in earnings per diluted share. Our team produced these results while facing many challenges during 2022, which were primarily related to the unexpected slowdown in the domestic economy.

Old Dominion 團隊產生了第四季度的財務結果，使我們能夠在年末創下公司年收入和盈利能力的記錄。我們延續了成功的記錄，並連續第 10 個季度實現了收入增長和運營比率的改善。因此，2022 年第四季度也是我們連續第 10 個季度實現攤薄後每股收益兩位數增長。我們的團隊在 2022 年面臨許多挑戰的同時取得了這些成果，這主要與國內經濟意外放緩有關。

We entered the year anticipating growth in our volumes that didn't ultimately meet our initial expectations, but we made the necessary adjustments throughout the year that, once again, showed the flexibility and resiliency of our long-term strategic plan. We also maintained a watchful eye on the efficiency of our operations and continued with our disciplined approach to managing discretionary spending.

進入這一年時，我們預計銷量會增長，但最終並未達到我們最初的預期，但我們在全年進行了必要的調整，這再次顯示了我們長期戰略計劃的靈活性和彈性。我們還密切關注我們的運營效率，並繼續採用嚴格的方法來管理可自由支配的支出。

Due to our confidence in our ability to win market share over the long term, the one thing that did not change in 2022 was our commitment to investing for the future. Capital expenditures totaling $775.1 million in 2022 were a new company record, and we invested $299.5 million in real estate projects that further expanded the capacity of our service center network.

由於我們對長期贏得市場份額的能力充滿信心，2022 年沒有改變的一件事是我們對未來投資的承諾。 2022 年的資本支出總額為 7.751 億美元，創下公司新紀錄，我們在房地產項目上投資了 2.995 億美元，進一步擴大了我們服務中心網絡的能力。

We also continued to invest heavily in our OD family of employees, with improvements in pay and benefits as well as a company record contribution to our 401(k) retirement plan for employees.

我們還繼續大力投資於我們的 OD 員工家庭，提高薪酬和福利，並為我們的員工 401(k) 退休計劃做出公司創紀錄的貢獻。

In dealing with the reality of slower-than-anticipated business volumes, we also worked diligently to protect the significant investment that we made over the past 2 years in our new employees. Speaking of new employees, I'm proud to share that there have been over 1,300 new drivers that graduated from our internal truck driving school over the past 2 years. In some cases, these driver school graduates, that now have their CDLs, are temporarily working in nondriving roles. While this comes at an increased cost to the company, we believe this bigger pool of licensed drivers will provide us with a strategic advantage once the freight cycle turns and additional volume opportunities become available to us.

在處理業務量低於預期的現實時，我們還努力工作以保護我們在過去 2 年中對新員工所做的重大投資。說到新員工，我很自豪地告訴大家，在過去 2 年裡，已有超過 1,300 名新司機從我們內部的卡車駕駛學校畢業。在某些情況下，這些現在擁有 CDL 的駕校畢業生暫時從事非駕駛工作。雖然這給公司帶來了更高的成本，但我們相信，一旦貨運週期轉變並且我們可以獲得更多的運輸機會，更多的持牌司機將為我們提供戰略優勢。

We said in our third quarter earnings call that we anticipated volumes could start increasing in the spring of this year, and we continue to remain cautiously optimistic that this will occur despite ongoing risk with the domestic economy.

我們在第三季度財報電話會議上表示，我們預計銷量可能會在今年春季開始增長，儘管國內經濟持續存在風險，但我們仍對這種情況的發生保持謹慎樂觀。

Regardless of the economic environment, I believe our 2022 results provide yet another example of why our long-term strategic plan will remain our focus for the foreseeable future. Consistent execution of this plan has helped us create an unmatched value proposition in our industry that led to over $1 billion of revenue growth for the second straight year in 2022.

無論經濟環境如何，我相信我們 2022 年的業績提供了另一個例子，說明為什麼我們的長期戰略計劃在可預見的未來仍將是我們的重點。這一計劃的持續執行幫助我們在行業中創造了無與倫比的價值主張，使我們在 2022 年連續第二年實現超過 10 億美元的收入增長。

I am confident that this commitment to our strategic plan will also continue after my retirement at the end of June this year. Our long-term success is the result of a strong team and their combined commitment to maintaining a strong company culture.

我相信，在我於今年 6 月底退休後，這種對我們戰略計劃的承諾也將繼續下去。我們的長期成功歸功於強大的團隊以及他們對維持強大的公司文化的共同承諾。

After working with Marty for most of my career, I can tell you that he lives and breathes the OD Family Spirit and will help take the company to new heights. I think the best is yet to come for Old Dominion, and I look forward to watching OD extend its long-term record of success. Thank you for joining us this morning.

在我職業生涯的大部分時間與 Marty 共事之後，我可以告訴你，他生活和呼吸著 OD 家族精神，並將幫助將公司推向新的高度。我認為 Old Dominion 最好的時刻還在後頭，我期待看到 OD 延續其長期的成功記錄。感謝您今天早上加入我們。

And now here is Marty Freeman to provide some more details on the fourth quarter.

現在，馬蒂·弗里曼 (Marty Freeman) 將提供有關第四季度的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning. I would like to start today by thanking Greg and our Board of Directors for providing me the opportunity to lead this great company. It will be an honor to lead our team, and I can assure you that we will work tirelessly to keep producing strong profitable growth. Along those lines, I was pleased with Old Dominion's revenue growth of 5.8%, and the improvement in our operating ratio to 71.2% during the fourth quarter. The combination of these items contributed to the 21.2% increase in earnings per diluted share. These financial results reflected the ongoing strength in demand for our services as we continue to deliver value to our customers by providing superior service at a fair price.

謝謝你，格雷格，早上好。今天開始，我要感謝 Greg 和我們的董事會為我提供領導這家偉大公司的機會。領導我們的團隊將是一種榮幸，我可以向您保證，我們將不懈努力，以保持強勁的盈利增長。按照這些思路，我對 Old Dominion 的收入增長 5.8% 以及第四季度我們的運營比率提高到 71.2% 感到滿意。這些項目的組合導致每股攤薄收益增長 21.2%。這些財務業績反映了對我們服務的持續強勁需求，因為我們繼續以合理的價格提供優質服務，為客戶創造價值。

While our long-term strategic plan is centered on our ability to provide this value proposition, the real key to our success is our strong family culture and our people. We will continue to invest in our OD family of employees as our employees are the foundation for building strong customer relationships. We are in a relationship business, and each employee plays a critical role to help deliver our industry-leading service. I am proud to report that our service metrics remained strong during the fourth quarter as we provided 99% on-time service with a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%.

雖然我們的長期戰略計劃以我們提供這一價值主張的能力為中心，但我們成功的真正關鍵是我們強大的家族文化和我們的員工。我們將繼續投資於我們的 OD 員工家庭，因為我們的員工是建立牢固客戶關係的基礎。我們從事關係業務，每位員工都在幫助提供我們行業領先的服務方面發揮著關鍵作用。我很自豪地報告，我們的服務指標在第四季度保持強勁，因為我們提供了 99% 的準時服務，貨物索賠率為 0.1%。

We believe executing our same long-term formula for success will allow us to win market share in the future, and as a result, will also allow us to constantly invest in new capacity ahead of anticipated growth. Our capital expenditures for 2023 are anticipated to be $800 million, which will improve the average age of our fleet and further expand the capacity of our real estate network.

我們相信，執行我們相同的長期成功公式將使我們能夠在未來贏得市場份額，因此，也將使我們能夠在預期增長之前不斷投資於新產能。我們 2023 年的資本支出預計為 8 億美元，這將提高我們機隊的平均年齡，並進一步擴大我們房地產網絡的容量。

We have invested approximately $2 billion in real estate expansion over the last 10 years and increased our door capacity by approximately 50% as a result. These investments supported our ability to double our market share over this time. The ever-increasing cost of both real estate and equipment, however, will require us to maintain our pricing discipline.

在過去 10 年中，我們在房地產擴張方面投資了約 20 億美元，結果我們的門容量增加了約 50%。這些投資支持我們在這段時間內將市場份額翻番的能力。然而，不斷增加的房地產和設備成本將要求我們保持我們的定價紀律。

Our long-term pricing philosophy is designed to evaluate the profitability of each customer account and then obtain the necessary increases to offset our cost inflation, while also supporting our ongoing investment in capacity and technology.

我們的長期定價理念旨在評估每個客戶賬戶的盈利能力，然後獲得必要的增長以抵消我們的成本膨脹，同時也支持我們在產能和技術方面的持續投資。

As we have executed on this consistent strategy over the years, the resulting improvement in our cash flows have generally supported our ability to invest between 10% and 15% of our revenue into capital expenditures each year. Continuing with each of these priorities demonstrates our team's intention to remain focused on executing the same business strategies that we have created our unique position in this industry.

由於我們多年來一直執行這一一致的戰略，由此帶來的現金流改善通常支持我們每年將收入的 10% 至 15% 投資於資本支出的能力。繼續執行這些優先事項中的每一個都表明我們的團隊打算繼續專注於執行我們在該行業中創造獨特地位的相同業務戰略。

We will continue to focus on our people, servicing our customers and investing for the future. This commitment to the core principles have differentiated us in the marketplace, gives us confidence in our ability to further produce profitable growth while also increasing shareholder value.

我們將繼續關注我們的員工、服務我們的客戶並為未來投資。這種對核心原則的承諾使我們在市場上脫穎而出，使我們相信我們有能力進一步實現盈利增長，同時增加股東價值。

With that, I'll now turn things over to Adam, who will discuss our fourth quarter financial results in greater detail.

有了這個，我現在將事情交給亞當，他將更詳細地討論我們第四季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning. Old Dominium's revenue growth of 5.8% in the fourth quarter resulted from a 16.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, which more than offset the 9.1% decrease in LTL tons. LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, increased 8.7%, and reflects the continued execution of our long-term pricing initiatives.

謝謝你，馬蒂，早上好。 Old Dominium 第四季度收入增長 5.8%，這是由於每英擔零擔收入增長 16.7%，抵消了零擔噸數 9.1% 的下降。每英擔零擔收入（不包括燃油附加費）增長 8.7%，反映了我們繼續執行長期定價計劃。

Our consistent approach to pricing is supported by our ability to provide our customers with superior service and available capacity. We believe this value offering is becoming increasingly important to shippers, which is why we remain absolutely committed to executing on the fundamental elements of our long-term strategic plan.

我們一貫的定價方法得到了我們為客戶提供優質服務和可用容量的能力的支持。我們相信這種價值提供對托運人來說變得越來越重要，這就是為什麼我們仍然絕對致力於執行我們長期戰略計劃的基本要素。

On a sequential basis, revenue per day for the fourth quarter decreased 2.4% when compared to the third quarter of 2022, with LTL tons per day decreasing 4.4% and LTL shipments per day decreasing 4.6%. For comparison, the 10-year average sequential change for these metrics includes a decrease of 0.6% in revenue per day, a decrease of 1.3% in tons per day and a decrease of 3.3% in shipments per day.

與 2022 年第三季度相比，第四季度的每日收入環比下降 2.4%，其中零擔噸數每天下降 4.4%，零擔運輸量每天下降 4.6%。相比之下，這些指標的 10 年平均連續變化包括每天收入減少 0.6%，每天噸數減少 1.3%，每天出貨量減少 3.3%。

For January, our revenue per day increased approximately 4.2% as compared to January of 2022. This growth included a 13.1% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight that more than offset the 7.8% decrease in LTL tons per day. Our fourth quarter operating ratio improved to 71.2%, which is primarily due to an improvement in our direct operating cost as a percent of revenue. Within our direct operating costs, productive labor as a percent of revenue improved 170 basis points, while our purchase transportation costs improved 200 basis points. These changes more than offset the 260 basis point increase in operating supplies and expenses that primarily resulted from a significant increase in the cost of diesel fuel and other petroleum-based products during the quarter. Our overhead cost as a percent of revenue were consistent between the periods compared.

與 2022 年 1 月相比，1 月份我們每天的收入增長了約 4.2%。這一增長包括每英擔零擔收入增長 13.1%，這足以抵消每天零擔噸數減少 7.8% 的影響。我們第四季度的運營比率提高到 71.2%，這主要是由於我們的直接運營成本佔收入的百分比有所提高。在我們的直接運營成本中，生產性勞動力佔收入的百分比提高了 170 個基點，而我們的採購運輸成本提高了 200 個基點。這些變化大大抵消了本季度柴油和其他石油產品成本顯著增加導致的運營供應和費用增加 260 個基點。我們的間接費用佔收入的百分比在比較期間是一致的。

Old Dominion's cash flow from operations totaled $361.3 million and $1.7 billion for the fourth quarter and 2022, respectively, while capital expenditures were $270.4 million and $775.1 million for the same periods. As Marty mentioned, we currently expect capital expenditures of $800 million in 2023.

Old Dominion 第四季度和 2022 年的運營現金流分別為 3.613 億美元和 17 億美元，而同期的資本支出分別為 2.704 億美元和 7.751 億美元。正如馬蒂所說，我們目前預計 2023 年的資本支出為 8 億美元。

We utilized $199.9 million and $1.3 billion of cash for our share repurchase program during the fourth quarter and 2022, respectively, while cash dividends totaled $33.0 million and $134.5 million for the same periods.

我們在第四季度和 2022 年分別為我們的股票回購計劃使用了 1.999 億美元和 13 億美元的現金，而同期的現金股息總額為 3300 萬美元和 1.345 億美元。

We were pleased that our Board of Directors approved a 33.3% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share for the first quarter of 2023. Our effective tax rate for both the fourth quarter 2022 and 2021 was 25.0%. We currently anticipate our effective tax rate to be 25.8% for 2023.

我們很高興董事會批准將 2023 年第一季度的季度股息增加 33.3% 至每股 0.40 美元。我們 2022 年第四季度和 2021 年第四季度的有效稅率均為 25.0%。我們目前預計 2023 年的有效稅率為 25.8%。

This concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Operator, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions at this time.

今天上午我們準備好的發言到此結束。接線員，我們很樂意此時開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Question, so on the salary expense side of the equation for the fourth quarter, I think the dollar amount was actually down year-over-year. Can you maybe talk a little bit to your thoughts around the drivers of that? Is it just lower incentive comp? I think you had mentioned attrition. And then how do we think about the salary line going forward, whether it'd be on a wage inflation perspective or a growth perspective?

問題，所以在第四季度等式的工資支出方面，我認為美元金額實際上同比下降。你能談談你對驅動因素的看法嗎？這只是較低的激勵補償嗎？我想你已經提到了損耗。然後我們如何看待未來的工資線，是從工資通脹的角度還是從增長的角度？

Sure. The overall dollars, obviously, we've been making adjustments as we've gone through the year. And I would say, through the back half of the year, in particular, we've been letting attrition take place and just consistently adjusting our headcount and the hours worked by our people in relation to what the volume environment dictates to continue to give service, but continuing to operate efficiently. And so I think, overall, that helped drive the decrease in that quarter-over-quarter those expenses, if you will.

當然。顯然，我們在過去一年中一直在進行調整。我要說的是，尤其是在今年下半年，我們一直在讓人員流失發生，只是不斷調整我們的員工人數和我們員工的工作時間，以適應數量環境要求繼續提供服務的情況，但繼續有效運作。所以我認為，總的來說，如果你願意的話，這有助於推動這些支出的季度環比下降。

So we continue to be focused, obviously, on managing those costs. That's our biggest cost element of our business is in the salaries, wages and benefits. And so it's certainly the biggest area of focus as we try to continue to run our network as efficiently as possible without giving any sacrifice to service.

因此，顯然，我們繼續專注於管理這些成本。我們業務中最大的成本要素是薪水、工資和福利。因此，這無疑是最大的關注領域，因為我們試圖在不犧牲任何服務的情況下繼續盡可能高效地運行我們的網絡。

So I do think that given the environment in the fourth quarter, I think we had -- given the circumstances, pretty strong revenue performance, I was pleased with the way our revenue and volumes trended and that was probably one of the favorable line items, if you will, in comparison to the guidance that we had originally provided with respect to the operating ratio was how the salary, wages and benefits ended up coming in for us.

所以我確實認為，考慮到第四季度的環境，我認為我們有——在這種情況下，收入表現相當強勁，我對我們的收入和銷量趨勢的方式感到滿意，這可能是有利的項目之一，如果你願意，與我們最初提供的關於運營比率的指導相比，工資、工資和福利最終是如何為我們帶來的。

Just as a follow-up, is there a way to -- I mean, do you expect that type of control, at least for the first half until you get to that inflection in the spring in volumes? I mean could we continue to see that trend line stay the same for the time being?

作為後續行動，有沒有辦法——我的意思是，你是否期望這種類型的控制，至少在上半年，直到你在春季數量上達到這種拐點？我的意思是我們能否繼續看到趨勢線暫時保持不變？

Well, I think we're in a good spot right now with where our headcount is. And typically, we start seeing increases in volume. And certainly, we're not in a normal environment by any stretch. But our January volumes were slightly positive versus December, pretty flattish overall really when you look at it from a shipment perspective. But we continue to anticipate that we will see volumes return to us in the spring. And I think we want to make sure that we've got all elements of capacity in place to deal with that environment whenever it inevitably comes.

好吧，我認為我們現在處於一個很好的位置，我們的員工人數在哪裡。通常，我們開始看到交易量增加。當然，我們無論如何都不處於正常環境中。但我們 1 月份的銷量與 12 月份相比略有上升，從出貨量的角度來看，總體上非常平淡。但我們繼續預計，我們將在春季看到銷量回升。而且我認為我們希望確保我們擁有所有能力要素，以便在不可避免地出現時應對這種環境。

We're certainly very confident about what our future market share opportunities will be. And so we want to make sure that we're in a position with our people, our equipment and certainly our service center network to be able to effectively respond when that does happen.

我們當然對我們未來的市場份額機會非常有信心。因此，我們希望確保我們的人員、設備以及我們的服務中心網絡能夠在這種情況確實發生時做出有效響應。

Typically, the February volumes are a little bit higher than January, and it's March when we start seeing the increase coming. And so I think that what we're trying to do is just, again, measure and manage all elements of capacity to ensure that we're in a good spot when that happens.

通常情況下，2 月份的銷量略高於 1 月份，而到了 3 月份，我們才開始看到增長的到來。因此，我認為我們正在努力做的只是再次衡量和管理能力的所有要素，以確保我們在這種情況發生時處於有利位置。

So again, I think that certainly a lot in the first quarter and probably the first half of the year really depends on what the volume environment gives us, but we continue to believe that we are going to see some increase. We've certainly seen it in the past, even in down economic environment, whether you look at something as bad as the environment was in 2009. I think 2016 is another good example where our second quarter volumes were higher than the first. And so it'd be a little different situation, I think, playing out this year in comparison to 2022, when beginning with April, our volumes were either decreasing or flattish on a month-over-month basis as we work our way through the year.

因此，我再次認為，第一季度和上半年可能確實有很多，這實際上取決於數量環境給我們帶來的影響，但我們仍然相信我們會看到一些增長。我們過去肯定已經看到過它，即使是在經濟低迷的環境中，無論你是否看到像 2009 年那樣糟糕的環境。我認為 2016 年是另一個很好的例子，我們第二季度的銷量高於第一季度。因此，我認為，與 2022 年相比，今年的情況會有所不同，從 4 月開始，我們的銷量環比下降或持平，因為我們正在努力度過年。

Certainly, we'd like to see volumes flowing into us as we transition and make our way through 2023, and hopefully start getting a little help from the macroeconomic environment as well.

當然，我們希望看到隨著我們的轉型和 2023 年的發展，大量資金流入我們，並希望也開始從宏觀經濟環境中獲得一些幫助。

Our next question comes from Jack Atkins with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jack Atkins 和 Stephens。

Greg, congratulations on your retirement, and I think the $34 billion of shareholder value you created since you've been CEO, congrats on that. And Marty, you've got some big shoes to fill, but congratulations to you as well.

格雷格，祝賀你退休，我認為你自擔任首席執行官以來創造了 340 億美元的股東價值，對此表示祝賀。還有馬蒂，你有一些大鞋子要填補，但也祝賀你。

Thank you, Jack. He taught me well.

謝謝你，傑克。他教我很好。

Thanks, Jack. Appreciate the kind words. So it's been a good run.

謝謝，傑克。欣賞客氣話。所以這是一個很好的運行。

Absolutely it's been. So I guess, maybe if we could -- Adam, if we could maybe expand a bit on the January trends a bit more. You talked about January being up a bit or maybe even flattish versus December. Anything you feel comfortable sharing there in terms of January revenue trends and tonnage or shipment trends, that would be helpful. And then I guess as you think about the operating ratio first quarter versus fourth quarter, anything you can maybe share relative to the normal seasonality would be helpful there. So I'll turn it over to you, Adam.

絕對是。所以我想，也許我們可以——亞當，如果我們可以進一步擴展 1 月份的趨勢。您談到 1 月與 12 月相比略有上漲，甚至持平。就 1 月份的收入趨勢和噸位或出貨趨勢而言，您願意在那里分享的任何內容都會有所幫助。然後我想當你考慮第一季度與第四季度的運營比率時，任何你可以分享的與正常季節性相關的東西都會對那裡有所幫助。所以我會把它交給你，亞當。

Yes. I guess from a volume standpoint, on a year-over-year basis, January, our tons per day were down 7.8%. That compares to December, where we were down 12.3% overall. I would point out, and obviously, we'll continue to give our mid-quarter update. We had a little bit easier comparison with the January year-over-year comp. And we had very strong performance in February of last year. So that comp gets a little bit more difficult there and then they obviously start getting easier. So just I guess, be aware of that when we give that February update in a month or so. But nevertheless, I was pretty pleased with the way really going back through the fourth quarter, December came in a little bit stronger than what our normal sequential change is. And that's a month we kind of talked about, I think, on the last call, in the fourth quarter, in particular, in some slower economic environment is where we've seen a pretty hefty drop off in our business levels and the fact that we say -- stayed pretty steady rather, I think, was a positive takeaway for me.

是的。我想從數量的角度來看，與去年同期相比，一月份，我們每天的噸數下降了 7.8%。與 12 月相比，我們整體下降了 12.3%。我要指出的是，很明顯，我們將繼續提供季度中期更新。與 1 月份的同比比較相比，我們更容易一些。我們在去年 2 月的表現非常強勁。因此，那裡的比賽變得更加困難，然後他們顯然開始變得更容易。所以我想，當我們在一個月左右的時間內提供 2 月的更新時，請注意這一點。但是，儘管如此，我對真正回到第四季度的方式感到非常滿意，12 月的情況比我們正常的順序變化要強一些。那是我們討論過的一個月，我想，在最後一次電話會議上，特別是在第四季度，在一些放緩的經濟環境中，我們看到我們的業務水平大幅下降，事實上我們說——保持相當穩定，我認為，這對我來說是一個積極的收穫。

I was hoping that we would see our sequential performance from a volume standpoint be a little bit closer to our 10-year average trends and certainly it was. The fourth quarter volumes were down 4.4% sequentially. The normal change is a 1.3% decrease. But if we compare back to where we were in the second and third quarters relative to our 10-year average changes, I think we're starting to trend back in the right direction. Whether or not we get back to the full 10-year average at least in the first half of the year remains to be seen. I think we probably need a little bit stronger economy, but I do think that we're going to start seeing some increases, like we mentioned, and particularly starting in March and then continuing through the second quarter. And we'll see where things go from there. But I think that certainly, that volume environment really will dictate what the operating ratio does. Typically, just to give a little bit more color on the first quarter operating ratio, we typically have about 100 basis point increase there coming off the fourth quarter.

我希望從銷量的角度來看，我們的連續表現會更接近我們 10 年的平均趨勢，而且確實如此。第四季度銷量環比下降 4.4%。正常變化是減少 1.3%。但如果我們將第二季度和第三季度的情況與 10 年平均變化進行比較，我認為我們開始朝著正確的方向發展。我們能否至少在今年上半年回到完整的 10 年平均水平還有待觀察。我認為我們可能需要更強勁的經濟，但我確實認為我們將開始看到一些增長，就像我們提到的那樣，特別是從 3 月開始，然後持續到第二季度。我們將看看事情的發展方向。但我認為，體積環境確實會決定運營比率的作用。通常，為了給第一季度的運營比率提供更多的顏色，我們通常會在第四季度增加大約 100 個基點。

In this particular first quarter of 2023, we did have a favorable insurance adjustment. We talked on the -- and given the guidance for 4Q of assuming that line held steady. There was improvement there, and I think that, that will normalize back to around 1.2% of revenue in 1Q of '23. So that becomes a 70-basis-point-or-so headwind for us. I think that we're going to continue to see a little bit of a headwind from depreciation as well. We've talked about this as we worked our way through last year that our delivery cycle was a little different than prior years. And so we're probably going to see a little bit more headwind from there.

在這個特殊的 2023 年第一季度，我們確實進行了有利的保險調整。我們討論了 - 並給出了假設該線保持穩定的第四季度指導。那裡有所改善，我認為這將在 23 年第一季度恢復到收入的 1.2% 左右。所以這對我們來說是一個 70 個基點左右的逆風。我認為我們也將繼續看到貶值帶來的一些不利因素。我們在去年的工作中談到了這一點，我們的交付週期與往年略有不同。因此，我們可能會從那裡看到更多的逆風。

So on a normalized basis, that probably puts us at about a 200-basis-point increase over where we just finished the fourth quarter. But -- so that kind of puts us somewhat flattish, if you will, on a year-over-year basis if we were to hit that. Certainly, I think if we get better revenue performance, we've got the opportunity to be able to outperform that longer term normalized average, but I think the revenue environment will certainly control a lot of it for us.

因此，在標準化的基礎上，這可能使我們在第四季度結束時增加了約 200 個基點。但是 - 所以如果我們要達到這一目標，那麼這會讓我們有點持平，如果你願意的話。當然，我認為如果我們獲得更好的收入表現，我們就有機會超越長期標準化平均水平，但我認為收入環境肯定會為我們控制很多。

Our next question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bascome Majors 和 Susquehanna。

Following up on the labor piece, your headcount was down about 3% sequentially. I think that's the biggest decline besides the COVID 2Q '20 job that you had since you began reporting this on a quarterly basis. You talked a little bit earlier in one of the other questions about feeling like you're in a fairly good place. Can you elaborate a little more? Does that mean your headcount flat to up from here or flattish and then trend with volumes from here? And just to help put a finer point on that. Any commentary on productivity or the cost of heads, I don't know, labor cost per employee or any other guidance you can get to help us kind of frame the cost piece of that and the expectation.

跟進勞動力，您的員工人數連續下降了約 3%。我認為這是自您開始按季度報告以來，除了 COVID 2Q '20 工作之外最大的跌幅。您早些時候在其他問題之一中談到了感覺自己處在一個相當不錯的地方。你能詳細說明一下嗎？這是否意味著您的員工人數從這裡持平到上升或持平然後從這裡隨著數量趨勢？只是為了幫助更好地說明這一點。關於生產力或主管成本的任何評論，我不知道，每名員工的勞動力成本或您可以獲得的任何其他指導，以幫助我們構建其中的成本部分和期望。

Thanks, Bascome. This is Greg, but I'll take that and try to give you as much color on as possible. But obviously, we've made some adjustments where we felt like we needed to in headcount. And as Adam mentioned earlier, he talked about attrition, and we've kind of let attrition control some of these adjustments, but we've made some in other places where we needed to. Certainly, we haven't replaced openings like we typically would in a normal cycle where we're growing and whatnot, but -- and that will continue to be our efforts till things start to turn the other way. So we'll see.

謝謝，巴斯科姆。我是格雷格，但我會接受並嘗試為您提供盡可能多的顏色。但很明顯，我們在我們認為需要的地方對員工人數進行了一些調整。正如 Adam 之前提到的，他談到了損耗，我們讓損耗控制了其中的一些調整，但我們在其他需要的地方做了一些調整。當然，我們沒有像通常在我們正在成長的正常週期中那樣替換空缺，但是 - 這將繼續是我們的努力，直到事情開始轉向另一個方向。所以我們拭目以待。

Typically, we'll see a little uptick late February going into March, things really start to pick up. So is that going to be the trend this year? We hope so, but just not absolutely certain, but I think we are in a good spot because, as I mentioned in my comments earlier, we've got an awful lot of qualified drivers that we've got work in the platform and whatnot. They're not driving full time. So I think we'll certainly be ready when the increase does happen and hope it's sooner than later.

通常情況下，我們會看到 2 月下旬進入 3 月時出現小幅上升，情況真正開始好轉。那麼這會成為今年的趨勢嗎？我們希望如此，但不是絕對確定，但我認為我們處於有利位置，因為正如我之前在評論中提到的那樣，我們有很多合格的司機，我們在平台上工作等等.他們不是全職開車。所以我認為我們肯定會在增加確實發生時做好準備，並希望它能早點到晚點。

But definitely, we will continue to make adjustments as needed. We talked about this on some of our prior calls. We've been able to make these adjustments in downturns in the past. I think we've proved again we can make adjustments when we need to. We've done it again. Feel good about where we are. We just have to continue to stay on top of it and react as the business dictates. I hope that helps.

但可以肯定的是，我們會繼續根據需要進行調整。我們在之前的一些電話中談到了這一點。過去，我們已經能夠在經濟低迷時期做出這些調整。我認為我們再次證明了我們可以在需要時做出調整。我們又做了一次。對我們所處的位置感覺良好。我們只需要繼續掌握它並根據業務要求做出反應。我希望這有幫助。

No, it's very helpful. Just to maybe tap that off, any thoughts on items that could impact kind of the cost per head this year? I don't know if there's some variables on incentive comp or other things that might make that a little lumpy versus what we would deem a normal trend based on history?

不，這很有幫助。只是為了解決這個問題，對可能影響今年人均成本的項目有什麼想法嗎？我不知道激勵補償或其他因素是否有一些變量可能會使它與我們認為基於歷史的正常趨勢相比有點不穩定？

Yes. I don't -- not as I know of, Bascome, I don't think so. I think it should be fairly normal from that standpoint. We've had -- we certainly had some good experiences in the recent past with our benefit cost and those kind of things. So you just hope that those things continue to be consistent and don't turn the other way for some unknown reason.

是的。我不——據我所知，巴斯科姆，我不這麼認為。我認為從這個角度來看應該是相當正常的。我們已經 - 我們在最近的過去肯定有一些很好的經驗，包括我們的福利成本和那些事情。所以你只希望這些事情繼續保持一致，不要因為某些未知原因而轉向另一條路。

Our next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

Yes. Congratulations also to both of you, Greg and Marty, and, Greg, yes, just a remarkable run. So congratulations to the great performance over time. Let's see. I think if -- I guess, just in terms of the view on tonnage, I know you have a large customer base, so maybe it's tough to parse it out. But what would you say about the, I guess, dynamic in terms of volume from retail customers and volume from industrial customers. It seems like probably there's been a lot of weakness and focus on inventory reduction with retail customers. Maybe a little less clear what's happened with industrial. So just trying to think about is there potentially some weakness yet to come with industrial? Have you seen a pretty big difference in the volumes from those 2 groups? So kind of any thoughts on that topic would be helpful.

是的。也祝賀你們倆，格雷格和馬蒂，還有格雷格，是的，這是一次非凡的比賽。因此，祝賀隨著時間的推移取得的出色表現。讓我們來看看。我想如果 - 我想，就噸位而言，我知道你有一個龐大的客戶群，所以可能很難分析出來。但我想，你會怎麼說零售客戶的數量和工業客戶的數量方面的動態。似乎可能存在很多弱點，並且專注於零售客戶的庫存減少。也許不太清楚工業發生了什麼。因此，只要想一想工業領域是否還存在一些潛在的弱點？您是否看到這兩組的體積有很大差異？因此，關於該主題的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes, I would say, during the fourth quarter, we saw pretty consistent revenue performance with both our industrial customer base and our retail customer base. I would say, earlier part of the year, we had seen a little bit stronger performance on the industrial side and those 2 kind of converged, if you will, in the fourth quarter. Obviously, our customer base is leaned more industrial than retail. We're still 55% to 60% industrial overall and 25% to 30% or so on the retail side. And longer term, that retail business has been growing faster than the industrial. And I think that reflects some of the e-commerce trends and the effect of those on our customer supply chains.

是的，我會說，在第四季度，我們的工業客戶群和零售客戶群的收入表現非常一致。我想說的是，今年早些時候，我們看到工業方面的表現略有增強，如果你願意的話，這兩種情況在第四季度趨於一致。顯然，我們的客戶群更傾向於工業而不是零售。我們仍然有 55% 到 60% 的工業整體和 25% 到 30% 左右的零售方面。從長遠來看，零售業務的增長速度一直快於工業。我認為這反映了一些電子商務趨勢以及這些趨勢對我們客戶供應鏈的影響。

And we certainly continue to believe that, that will be a longer-term tailwind for us. And I think that as we start working through 2023, we believe that we'll start seeing customers orders for their product picking up and some inventory rebalancing, if you will. And I think that's why we've seen in some of the prior slow periods that I spoke of earlier, why you start seeing the orders and freight flows kind of leading the other macroeconomic indicators.

我們當然繼續相信，這對我們來說將是一個長期的順風。而且我認為，當我們開始工作到 2023 年時，我們相信我們將開始看到客戶的產品提貨訂單和一些庫存重新平衡，如果你願意的話。我認為這就是為什麼我們在我之前提到的一些之前的緩慢時期看到，為什麼你開始看到訂單和貨運量領先於其他宏觀經濟指標。

So we believe that the freight cycle will start turning, and we'll start seeing some pickup. And it's through these customer interactions and conversations that support our belief that we're going to start seeing freight flowing again as we get into March and into the second quarter.

因此，我們相信貨運週期將開始轉變，我們將開始看到一些提貨。正是通過這些客戶互動和對話支持我們的信念，即我們將在進入 3 月和第二季度時再次開始看到貨運流動。

But it sounds like you haven't seen a big difference maybe over the past in 4Q or even 3Q in performance from industrial and retail. And I guess, looking forward, do you think maybe both of them kind of bottom and improve at the same time?

但聽起來您似乎沒有看到過去第四季度甚至第三季度工業和零售業的表現有很大差異。而且我想，展望未來，你認為他們兩個可能同時觸底並有所改善嗎？

And maybe we start seeing retail outperform again. While ISM and some of the industrial numbers look a little bit weaker, we start getting some of that retail performance as an offset leading us out. And eventually, we'll start seeing the industrial picking back up again.

也許我們開始再次看到零售業跑贏大盤。雖然 ISM 和一些工業數據看起來有點疲軟，但我們開始獲得一些零售業績作為抵消導致我們出局。最終，我們將開始看到工業再次復蘇。

Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Congrats absolutely to Greg and Marty. It's been a heck of a run, certainly, Greg. When -- I guess, I wanted to talk a little bit about how you guys are planning for the potential improvement in tons that you may see in the spring? You guys have always been very good at being out in front of potential opportunities, but do you think that there are incremental costs that need to come on the network before that happens? Are you fairly comfortable being able to sort of let tonnage lead you out of this to drive incremental margins, which obviously you guys have performed quite well with over time?

絕對祝賀格雷格和馬蒂。格雷格，當然，這真是一場奔跑。什麼時候——我想，我想談談你們是如何計劃在春季可能看到的噸數的潛在改善？你們一直非常擅長抓住潛在機會，但您認為在這種情況發生之前網絡需要增加成本嗎？您是否能夠讓噸位帶領您擺脫困境以推動增量利潤率，這顯然你們隨著時間的推移表現得相當不錯？

Yes. I think that -- Chris, that some of the conversation earlier about headcount, probably on paper, we may be a little bit heavy now, if you just look at things statistically, if you will. But that's kind of the point of what we've said is, I think that we're in a good spot with our headcount, with our fleet and certainly with the service center network to be able to let volume start flowing again. And when we talk about increases, just keep in mind that we're talking about sequential increases. And certainly, with the year-over-year comps, particularly in the first half of the year, we've got some tougher year-over-year comparisons there before we get back to just being able to show year-over-year growth.

是的。我認為 - 克里斯，之前關於員工人數的一些談話，可能在紙面上，我們現在可能有點沉重，如果你只是從統計學上看的話，如果你願意的話。但這就是我們所說的重點，我認為我們在員工人數、車隊以及服務中心網絡方面處於有利地位，能夠讓流量再次開始流動。當我們談論增長時，請記住我們談論的是連續增長。當然，通過同比比較，尤其是在今年上半年，在我們回到能夠顯示同比增長之前，我們在那裡進行了一些更嚴格的同比比較.

But I think that will be the important thing for us to continue to watch is, are we seeing those type of sequential increases? And certainly, we've got a lot of flexibility within our workforce. And I think that given the team that we have and the current levels, we should be able to respond to growth when it starts coming at us and get some good leverage as it does.

但我認為對我們來說繼續關注的重要事情是，我們是否看到了這種連續增長？當然，我們的員工隊伍具有很大的靈活性。而且我認為，鑑於我們擁有的團隊和目前的水平，我們應該能夠在增長開始向我們襲來時做出反應，並在增長時獲得一些良好的影響力。

But certainly, we're looking at right now in the first quarter. Like I mentioned, with the January tonnage levels, we've got probably the volumes that are going to be the toughest comp. And certainly, overall, in the fourth quarter, we were down 9.1%. Our yield performance is still looking good, and we certainly expect to continue to push for core yield increases this year to offset our cost inflation as well. But there could become some converging factors, if you will, that drive the top line depending on what the overall fuel environment looks like and so forth. But we're certainly going to continue to look and execute on the same pricing philosophy that we have in the past and look for cost plus increases to offset the cost inflation that we see in the business and to keep supporting these expensive investments that we're making in our real estate network and technologies that can both improved customer service, but also drive further operating efficiencies for us.

但可以肯定的是，我們現在正在看第一季度。就像我提到的那樣，根據 1 月份的噸位水平，我們可能獲得了最艱難的產量。當然，總體而言，在第四季度，我們下降了 9.1%。我們的收益率表現仍然不錯，我們當然希望今年繼續推動核心收益率增長，以抵消我們的成本通脹。但是，如果你願意的話，可能會出現一些融合因素，這些因素會推動收入增長，這取決於整體燃料環境的情況等等。但我們肯定會繼續尋找和執行我們過去採用的相同定價理念，並尋求成本加成來抵消我們在業務中看到的成本通脹，並繼續支持我們的這些昂貴投資。重新構建我們的房地產網絡和技術，既可以改善客戶服務，又可以進一步提高我們的運營效率。

So a lot of things to kind of manage through, in particular the first half of this year, but I think we're in a good spot to be able to handle the volumes that they do, in fact, flow our way.

所以有很多事情需要管理，特別是今年上半年，但我認為我們處於一個很好的位置，能夠處理他們所做的事情，事實上，我們的方式。

Yes. That's very helpful. I appreciate that color. On the point of pricing, just a follow-up. Ex fuel yield did accelerate the year-over-year growth that accelerated in the fourth quarter. And I guess you're guiding the first quarter OR roughly speaking to around flattish, which may coincide with the worst tonnage you're going to see from a year-over-year standpoint.

是的。這很有幫助。我很欣賞那種顏色。關於定價，只是跟進。除燃料產量確實加速了第四季度加速的同比增長。而且我猜你正在指導第一季度或者粗略地說是持平，這可能與你將看到的同比最差噸位相吻合。

So when you take a step back and think about 2023 more broadly, is OR expansion on the table given those circumstances? Is it pricing good enough to be able to offset inflation as we go and tonnage potentially gets less worse as the year progresses?

因此，當您退後一步並更廣泛地考慮 2023 年時，考慮到這些情況，是否可以考慮擴大 OR？隨著時間的推移，它的定價是否足以抵消通貨膨脹，並且隨著時間的推移，噸位可能會變得不那麼糟糕？

Well, I think that, again, the revenue environment, we'll have a lot to say about that. More broadly speaking, we've talked and kind of pointed everyone to our performance in 2016 and 2019, when we've been in a flatter revenue environment. Certainly, given the planned investment of about $800 million in capital expenditures this year and with some pressures that we'll see on depreciation starting earlier in the year than normal, we will have some pressures, if you will, in those overhead costs. And we saw a little bit of that in the fourth quarter already, where overhead costs as a percent of revenue were flat in 4Q '22 versus 4Q '21. But like we did in '16 and in '19, the focus, when we're in a flat to a down revenue environment, we'll be managing our variable costs flat and we'd love to see improvement, but trying to hold all those costs flat. And then any deterioration, if there is anything, would be in those overhead costs, in particular, on the depreciation side.

好吧，我認為，對於收入環境，我們會有很多話要說。更廣泛地說，我們已經討論過並向所有人指出了我們在 2016 年和 2019 年的表現，當時我們的收入環境較為平穩。當然，考慮到今年計劃投資約 8 億美元的資本支出，以及我們將在今年比正常情況下更早看到的折舊壓力，如果你願意的話，我們將在這些間接費用方面面臨一些壓力。我們已經在第四季度看到了一些這樣的情況，22 年第四季度的間接費用佔收入的百分比與 21 年第四季度持平。但就像我們在 16 年和 19 年所做的那樣，重點是，當我們處於收入持平或下降的環境中時，我們將管理我們的可變成本持平，我們希望看到改善，但試圖保持所有這些成本持平。然後任何惡化，如果有的話，都會在這些間接費用中，特別是在折舊方面。

And so I think that in '16, we certainly saw a little bit of a decrease in the operating ratio or an increase rather depending on how you look at it. But I think our operating ratio deteriorated 60 basis points that year and that was something that was right in line with the change in the depreciation line item. And then '19 was the same thing, where we had a 30-basis-point deterioration there.

所以我認為，在 16 年，我們肯定會看到運營比率略有下降或增加，這取決於你如何看待它。但我認為我們的運營比率在那一年惡化了 60 個基點，這與折舊項目的變化是一致的。然後 19 年也是一樣，我們在那裡有 30 個基點的惡化。

So we'll take it quarter-by-quarter, certainly, and we'll talk as we get to the end of next quarter's call about what we think we may be able to do in 2Q, but certainly feel like we're probably going to have a little bit more pressure on the overhead side this year if we are, in fact, in a flat to slightly down revenue environment. But there's still a lot up in the air when it comes to the top line for this year.

所以我們會一個季度一個季度地進行，當然，我們會在下個季度的電話會議結束時討論我們認為我們可以在第二季度做些什麼，但肯定感覺我們可能事實上，如果我們處於持平或略有下降的收入環境中，今年間接費用方面的壓力會更大一些。但就今年的收入而言，仍有很多懸而未決的問題。

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

And again, congrats, Greg and Marty. I was wondering, can you give us -- so the yields ex fuel accelerated in Q4. Is -- any color -- is underlying pricing accelerating here? And then, Adam, I think you talked about 13% total yield growth in January. Any way you can just help us on the gross -- on the net of fuel. I just want to understand if that net of fuel is continuing to accelerate.

再次恭喜 Greg 和 Marty。我想知道，你能不能給我們——所以第四季度燃料前的收益率加速了。是 - 任何顏色 - 基礎定價在這裡加速嗎？然後，亞當，我想你在 1 月份談到了 13% 的總收益率增長。任何方式你都可以幫助我們總的 - 在燃料淨值上。我只想了解燃料網是否繼續加速。

Yes. Net of fuel in January was about 8.5% so fairly consistent with what we just did in the fourth quarter overall. And we are starting to see a decrease in fuel, and we'll see how that continues to trend this year. And so perhaps the yield with and without the fuel, those 2 numbers will maybe be a little bit more consistent. I think that if fuel holds steady with where we are right now, it certainly becomes a headwind as we get into the later quarters of the year. But nonetheless, I think that certainly, there's always mix changes that can drive that number higher or lower, but I think it's pretty consistent with what our long-term philosophy has been.

是的。 1 月份的淨燃料約為 8.5%，與我們剛剛在第四季度所做的總體情況相當一致。我們開始看到燃料減少，我們將看到今年這種趨勢如何繼續。所以也許有和沒有燃料的產量，這兩個數字可能會更一致一點。我認為，如果燃料在我們現在的位置保持穩定，那麼隨著我們進入今年下半年，它肯定會成為不利因素。但是，儘管如此，我認為肯定的是，總會有混合變化可以推動這個數字更高或更低，但我認為這與我們的長期理念非常一致。

We certainly dealt with higher cost inflation on a per shipment basis in 2022 than what at least I initially expected. I thought we would see some cost moderation as we got into the back half of the year, which obviously did not happen. So we just continue to execute on that same consistent philosophy that we always have.

我們肯定會在 2022 年處理每批貨物的成本通脹，這至少比我最初預期的要高。我以為我們會在進入下半年時看到一些成本節制，這顯然沒有發生。因此，我們只是繼續執行我們一直擁有的相同的一貫理念。

And I think that's why we saw the yield performance that we did. But I believe that costs should be a little bit more favorable versus the last couple of years in 2023 or certainly, that's our hope. And we'll continue to build our cost model around what that cost inflation expectation is and then continue to try to achieve 100 to 150 basis points of positive spread above that inflation to again support the investments that we're going to make. So I think, overall, if you just sort of roll out typically the first quarter, our yield metrics are up about 0.5% over the fourth quarter. We'd expect to continue to see, if mix is constant, those numbers increase sequentially quarter after quarter. But certainly that some of that growth, if you will, may start to moderate a bit. But again, you're going to see that same type of moderation or should with the cost. But nonetheless, the overall philosophy stays the same, and we'll continue to look for cost plus pricing.

我認為這就是為什麼我們看到了我們所做的收益率表現。但我認為，與 2023 年的過去幾年相比，成本應該會更有利一些，或者當然，這是我們的希望。我們將繼續圍繞成本通脹預期建立我們的成本模型，然後繼續努力實現高於通脹的 100 到 150 個基點的正利差，以再次支持我們將要進行的投資。所以我認為，總的來說，如果你只是在第一季度推出，我們的收益率指標比第四季度增長了約 0.5%。我們希望繼續看到，如果混合不變，這些數字將逐季增加。但可以肯定的是，如果你願意的話，其中一些增長可能會開始放緩。但同樣，您將看到相同類型的節製或應該付出代價。但儘管如此，總體理念保持不變，我們將繼續尋找成本加成定價。

Very helpful. And just because you mentioned the fuel and maybe the surcharge revenue and flex negative, how does that impact your thoughts on the question earlier about operating ratio improvement this year?

很有幫助。僅僅因為您提到了燃料，也許還提到了附加費收入和彈性負值，這對您早些時候對今年運營比率改善問題的看法有何影響？

Well, again, it's just -- it's one of the drivers on the top line that is a change that we will deal with. And I think, overall, it would be a positive for the economy and something that would be good to see. I don't know anybody that would like showing up at the pump and seeing that bigger number. And certainly, that's been a big cost driver for what we've seen. I think it's better, too, for just cost inflation and other line items. I think the increased cost of fuel is driving inflation and about anything whether it's a product or a service that we're buying. So I think a decrease there certainly helps.

好吧，再一次，這只是 - 它是最重要的驅動因素之一，這是我們將要應對的變化。我認為，總的來說，這將對經濟產生積極影響，也是一件值得高興的事情。我不知道有谁愿意出現在加油站並看到更大的數字。當然，對於我們所看到的，這是一個很大的成本驅動因素。我認為這對成本通脹和其他項目也更好。我認為燃料成本的增加正在推動通貨膨脹以及我們購買的任何產品或服務。所以我認為那裡的減少肯定有幫助。

But as we look back, 2015, 2016 were the time frames that we last went through a bigger decrease in average fuel prices. And I think we continue to try to manage just like we did in those periods and continuing to manage the different components that go into building out our rates with customers, whether it's base rates, fuel surcharge or accessorials, managing all the revenue inputs with the cost inputs and trying to account for whether or not fuel goes up or down. So it's just something that our pricing and cost and teams and our sales teams have got to work through as we're working through renewals with our customers every day and just looking and seeing where we are and what we feel like we need to keep driving improvement in our customer-specific pricing and profitability.

但回顧過去，2015 年和 2016 年是我們上一次經歷平均燃油價格大幅下跌的時間段。而且我認為我們將繼續嘗試像那些時期那樣進行管理，並繼續管理與客戶建立費率的不同組成部分，無論是基本費率、燃油附加費還是附加費，管理所有收入投入成本投入，並試圖說明燃料是上漲還是下跌。因此，這只是我們的定價和成本以及我們的團隊和我們的銷售團隊必須解決的問題，因為我們每天都在與客戶進行續訂，只是看看我們所處的位置以及我們覺得我們需要繼續駕駛的東西改善我們針對特定客戶的定價和盈利能力。

Our next question comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

I just want to ask about potential customer attrition. Just given some of the freight challenges out there and certainly, your customer focus on costs. Are you seeing any sort of attrition as customers try to trade down, obviously, quality, but price as well? Or are the dynamics may be a little different this cycle? Just any thoughts there.

我只想問一下潛在的客戶流失。考慮到一些貨運挑戰，當然，您的客戶關注成本。當客戶試圖降低質量和價格時，您是否看到任何形式的流失？或者這個週期的動態可能有點不同？只是有任何想法。

Yes. This is Marty. I'll take that one. We aren't seeing anything like we saw back in '08 or '09. We have customers in here every week, and our larger customers, contract customers coming and it's business as usual. They're coming in and asking for contract renewals, additional services and so forth. So we're not seeing anything out of the ordinary for the economic circumstances, no major price cutting or anything like that. So I feel pretty confident that the end is probably near what we're going through.

是的。這是馬蒂。我會拿那個。我們沒有看到我們在 08 年或 09 年看到的任何東西。我們每週都有客戶來這裡，我們的大客戶、合同客戶都會來，一切照常。他們進來要求續簽合同、額外服務等等。因此，我們沒有看到經濟環境有任何異常，沒有大幅降價或類似的事情。所以我非常有信心結束可能接近我們正在經歷的事情。

Our next question comes from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Thank you. Good morning. Marty, since we have you, and you're entering or you're already there, but you're entering the head seat and the best mousetrap in the industry probably on the precipice of breaking the 70 OR basis. You've already laid out your CapEx for this year. But as you think strategically over the next few years, anything you're thinking about differently as it relates to growth, as it relates to the labor, et cetera? Or is it just kind of ride the cycles with what you've had and continue to get incremental productivity out of that mousetrap?

謝謝。早上好。馬蒂，既然我們有你，你正在進入或你已經在那裡，但你正在進入頭座，並且業內最好的捕鼠器可能正處於打破 70 OR 基礎的懸崖邊上。您已經制定了今年的資本支出。但是，當你在未來幾年進行戰略性思考時，你有什麼不同的想法，因為它與增長有關，因為它與勞動力有關，等等？或者它只是利用你已經擁有的東西來駕馭週期，並繼續從那個捕鼠器中獲得更高的生產力？

Well, one of the reasons we've been able to grow like we have over the last years is because we continue to build capacity even during slow times, and I don't see us moving away from that focus. So we'll continue to do that. We'll continue to buy new equipment and hire employees as needed. So I don't see any change from what we've been doing that's made us successful in the past.

好吧，我們能夠像過去幾年那樣增長的原因之一是因為即使在經濟低迷時期我們也會繼續建設產能，而且我認為我們不會偏離這一重點。所以我們會繼續這樣做。我們將繼續購買新設備並根據需要雇用員工。因此，我認為過去使我們成功的做法與我們所做的相比沒有任何變化。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Congrats, Greg and Marty and Marty, yes, please don't change your thing, just do -- [just while you're in that seat and don't do] anything. A couple of follow-ups here. Do you feel like you have a better ability to capture that spring inflection in growth if it comes versus peers given how much free capacity you have? And do you have a sense of your ability to grow into that volume relative to peers?

恭喜，Greg 和 Marty 和 Marty，是的，請不要改變你的東西，只是做 - [就在你坐在那個座位上並且不要做]任何事情。這裡有幾個後續行動。鑑於您擁有多少可用容量，您是否覺得與同行相比，您是否有更好的能力捕捉增長的春季拐點？與同齡人相比，您是否意識到自己有能力成長為該數量？

I don't know about relative to peers, but certainly, we feel confident about our ability to grow. And I think you look at things in the past, we've certainly have been outgrowing the market relative over the last 10 years, in particular, year in and year out. When we're in up cycles, that's when our business shines the brightest. And certainly, our service is what wins us share and have an available capacity to respond to customers when they need us the most. That's kind of our hallmark. And so we're sitting in a very good spot right now to be able to respond to that growth. When the phone calls come, we're going to be picking them up.

我不知道相對於同行的情況，但可以肯定的是，我們對自己的成長能力充滿信心。而且我認為你看過去的事情，在過去的 10 年裡，我們肯定已經超越了市場，尤其是年復一年。當我們處於上升週期時，那是我們的業務最閃耀的時候。當然，我們的服務讓我們贏得了份額，並有能力在客戶最需要我們的時候響應客戶。那是我們的標誌。因此，我們現在處於一個非常好的位置，能夠應對這種增長。來電時，我們會接聽。

Got it. Sounds good. And maybe as a follow-up kind of on the fuel topic, I mean, there's been a lot of speculation in the investment community about like fuel and kind of how much is driven earnings. And I think a lot of you -- I mean, you and your lot of peers have been saying that, hey, there's a new algorithm when it comes to fuel pricing and it's stickier than you think, et cetera, et cetera. So how do we think about how fuel becomes a headwind in the back half of the year kind of there's any way to quantify that? And also kind of how much of that fuel can be sticky and kind of convert the base rate over time, do you think?

知道了。聽起來不錯。也許作為燃料話題的後續類型，我的意思是，投資界有很多關於燃料的猜測以及多少是驅動收益的猜測。我想你們很多人——我的意思是，你和你的很多同行一直在說，嘿，在燃油定價方面有一種新算法，它比你想像的更粘，等等，等等。那麼我們如何看待燃料如何在今年下半年成為逆風，有什麼方法可以量化嗎？還有多少這種燃料可以是粘性的，並且隨著時間的推移可以轉換基本利率，你認為嗎？

It's something that's -- we certainly faced this question before when fuel changes. I think that we got a pretty long period where we were at low fuel prices kind of going back to when that final decrease happened in 2016. And I'd say we had pretty good results between 2016 and 2020 when we were in a lower fuel environment. And again, I think that it's something that maybe people on the street, it's hard to understand if you're not negotiating with some of these types of contracts. But, for us, it's all about having a good cost model, understanding our cost and knowing what the revenue and the cost inputs are going to be weather fuels at $5 a gallon or $3 a gallon, it's just something that we've got to manage through. In some environments, some customers may want more or less an increase coming through a base rate type of change. Some may want more exposure to that variable component of pricing that would be the fuel surcharge.

這是 - 我們在燃料變化之前肯定遇到過這個問題。我認為我們有很長一段時間處於低油價狀態，可以追溯到 2016 年最終下降的時候。我想說我們在 2016 年到 2020 年期間取得了相當不錯的結果，當時我們的燃油價格較低環境。再一次，我認為這可能是街上的人，如果你不與這些類型的合同中的一些進行談判，就很難理解。但是，對我們來說，這一切都是關於擁有一個好的成本模型，了解我們的成本並知道收入和成本投入將成為每加侖 5 美元或每加侖 3 美元的天氣燃料，這只是我們必須要做的事情管理通過。在某些環境中，一些客戶可能希望通過基本費率類型的變化或多或少地增加費用。有些人可能希望更多地接觸定價的可變部分，即燃油附加費。

And there's ways to increase yields by driving productivity with customers as well, where we can obtain the same objective by just looking at the operational factors underneath. And having all of our systems tied into our cost model allows us to have those types of conversations with our customers as well.

還有一些方法可以通過提高客戶的生產力來提高產量，我們可以通過查看下面的運營因素來實現相同的目標。將我們所有的系統都綁定到我們的成本模型中，使我們也可以與客戶進行這些類型的對話。

Ultimately, it's just about driving customer-specific profitability improvement and work in our continuous improvement cycle so that we can continue to purchase real estate and expand our network. So customers have got that to leverage within their own supply chains. We're effectively buying capacity on behalf of our customers. So I think we got to just continue to execute on that front. And I think that we've shown in terms of going through prior cycles that we'll be able to do so.

最終，這只是為了推動特定於客戶的盈利能力提高，並在我們的持續改進週期中努力，以便我們可以繼續購買房地產並擴大我們的網絡。因此，客戶可以在自己的供應鏈中利用這一點。我們實際上是在代表我們的客戶購買容量。所以我認為我們必須繼續在這方面執行。而且我認為我們已經通過之前的周期表明我們能夠做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

And again, congrats, Greg, on your tenure, and, Marty, on the new role. Just a quick clarification, I guess, on that spring pickup you've talked a bit about. Is that just comp based? Or is there a commentary you're hearing from customer comments or just I guess on showing up inventories? I just want to understand why the -- I guess, the confidence in that given the market? And then my question is on depreciation. You know the depreciation is going to be higher. Last year, you targeted, I think it was $485 million on equipment at the beginning of this year -- at the beginning of the year. This year, you're doing $400 million on equipment. Is that because the delivery schedule was slower? Is -- what's your view on getting that equipment? And does that still allow you to stay at that 20%, 25% excess capacity that you typically target?

再次祝賀 Greg 就任，並祝賀 Marty 擔任新職務。我想，只是快速澄清一下您剛才談到的那個彈簧皮卡。那隻是基於補償的嗎？或者您是否從客戶評論中聽到了評論，或者我猜只是關於顯示庫存？我只是想了解為什麼 - 我想，鑑於市場對此的信心？然後我的問題是關於折舊。你知道折舊會更高。去年，你的目標是，我認為今年年初的設備是 4.85 億美元。今年，您在設備上投入了 4 億美元。那是因為交貨時間表較慢嗎？是——您對獲得該設備有何看法？這是否仍然允許您保持通常設定的 20%、25% 的過剩產能？

Yes. Ken, this is Greg. I think so on the -- I'll take your revenue question first, but we typically always pick up in the spring. So certainly, we're hopeful that we get back into a more normal cycle than what we've certainly been in really since COVID. We've kind of been off cycle, if you will, if that makes sense. And the normal numbers that sequentials that we compare with all over the years, they're just been different in the last couple of years. So certainly, getting back to a normal cycle would be one reason we are somewhat hopeful.

是的。肯，這是格雷格。我認為 - 我會先回答你的收入問題，但我們通常總是在春季回升。因此，當然，我們希望我們能回到一個比自 COVID 以來我們真正進入的周期更正常的周期。如果你願意的話，如果這有意義的話，我們有點不合時宜。我們多年來比較的正常連續數字，在過去幾年中有所不同。所以當然，回到正常週期將是我們有點希望的原因之一。

Some of the things that we've seen, heard and read, inventories are starting to get low compared to where they were back, say, a year or 6 months ago. So I think there are some things that lead us to believe that we could be coming out of this thing, plus we've been through many, many cycles over the years. And typically, they're a year, 16 months, so we kind of think that that's what we've been in this one.

我們所見、所聞和所讀的一些事情，與一年或 6 個月前相比，庫存開始下降。所以我認為有些事情讓我們相信我們可以擺脫這件事，而且這些年來我們經歷了很多很多周期。通常，它們是一年零 16 個月，所以我們有點認為這就是我們在這一次中所做的。

So yes, we're hopeful, got our fingers crossed that we will come out of this thing as we get into the spring and later on in the second quarter.

所以是的，我們滿懷希望，希望我們能在進入春季和第二季度晚些時候擺脫這件事。

As far as the equipment, yes, it's been kind of funky. The deliveries that we -- cycle that we've been on this time, we certainly didn't get everything back last year like we typically would. Typically, we would have all of our orders in the early fall. We had everything in place that wasn't the case this year. We're actually still taking some equipment that we should have gotten back last year. So it's been a little different. So we'll just have to see how the business develops. And I think that's going to determine where that $400 million that we talked about number, where that goes this year.

就設備而言，是的，它有點時髦。我們這次的交付——我們一直在進行的周期，我們去年當然沒有像往常那樣把所有東西都拿回來。通常，我們會在初秋收到所有訂單。我們已經準備好了今年沒有的一切。實際上，我們仍在拿走一些本應在去年取回的設備。所以它有點不同。所以我們只需要看看業務如何發展。我認為這將決定我們談到的 4 億美元的數字，以及今年的去向。

So we'll just have to see, and it will certainly be based on our business conditions and the numbers that we see as we get on into 2023 as to how that $400 million develops this year compared to last year.

所以我們只需要看看，這肯定會基於我們的業務狀況和我們在進入 2023 年時看到的數字，看看今年這 4 億美元與去年相比如何發展。

Next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Thanks, operator. Hi, everyone. Greg, hearty congratulations on the retirement. And Marty, looking forward to working with you as well. I guess I wanted to ask about pricing. I know pricing discipline is good, so it's not really about that. But I guess we've seen a lot of LTL companies in recent months announced general rate increases. I guess what's surprising to me is some of the ones that have even a little bit weaker service that may be more tempted to lean into price have also announced big price increases. And I wanted to understand like the reaction from the customers because in the typical cycle a customer would maybe trade down to regional lanes with high-quality carriers. Maybe you lose 20%, 30% of your lanes or 2 or 3 lanes or whatever it is, that doesn't seem to be occurring right now where shippers are not moving to other high-quality, but regional lanes.

謝謝，運營商。大家好。格雷格，衷心祝賀退休。 Marty，也期待與您合作。我想我想問一下定價。我知道定價紀律很好，所以這不是真的。但我想我們最近幾個月已經看到很多 LTL 公司宣布普遍加息。我想令我感到驚訝的是，一些服務甚至更弱、更傾向於靠價格的公司也宣布大幅提價。我想了解客戶的反應，因為在典型的周期中，客戶可能會選擇使用高質量運營商的區域航線。也許你失去了 20%、30% 的車道或 2 或 3 條車道或其他任何東西，這似乎並沒有發生，因為托運人沒有轉向其他高質量的區域車道。

And I want to understand, one, why you think that might be? Like what's the psychology of your customers in terms of how they think this cycle is going to play out? And then second, how does that impact your ability to bounce back? Because I would assume as there's a big seasonal pull in March and April, May. You don't have to win back lanes, you don't have to win back customers so you can kind of see it first in terms of that upswing. So sorry for the long-winded question, but hopefully that was clear.

我想明白，一，為什麼你認為那可能是？就客戶認為這個週期將如何結束而言，他們的心理是什麼？其次，這如何影響你反彈的能力？因為我假設 3 月和 4 月、5 月有很大的季節性拉動。你不必贏回車道，你不必贏回客戶，所以你可以先看到它的上升。很抱歉這個冗長的問題，但希望這是清楚的。

I don't know if I can explain the psychology of our customers. But I did take a psych class in college once, so I'll give it a shot. But I think that we've talked a lot about this that since going through COVID, there's been so much disruption to customer supply chains and missed revenue opportunities, incremental cost added to production lines just because of all the supply chain challenges that many of our customers have been dealing with over the last couple of years.

我不知道我是否可以解釋我們客戶的心理。但我確實在大學裡上過一次心理學課，所以我會試一試。但我認為我們已經討論了很多這個問題，自從經歷 COVID 以來，客戶供應鏈受到瞭如此多的干擾，錯失了收入機會，生產線增加了增量成本，這僅僅是因為我們許多人面臨的所有供應鏈挑戰在過去的幾年裡，客戶一直在處理。

So I think, for that reason, we've seen a little bit of change in customer behavior. I think customers have been sticking with us. And certainly, over the last year, as Marty mentioned earlier, despite the weakness that we've seen in the economy, we've seen good customer trends.

所以我認為，出於這個原因，我們已經看到客戶行為發生了一些變化。我認為客戶一直支持我們。當然，在過去的一年裡，正如馬蒂之前提到的，儘管我們在經濟中看到了疲軟，但我們看到了良好的客戶趨勢。

We get periodic reporting from our national account sales teams, and we just -- we've not been losing customer accounts. I think customers have been keeping us in place because they inevitably know that, one, many are still dealing with challenges. A lot of the conversations that we continue to have more around challenges within the supply chain. And I think, two, is that they know that we're probably closer to things turning and orders picking back up for our customers' products, and they want to make sure that they've got capacity that's available as needed.

我們從我們的全國客戶銷售團隊那裡得到定期報告，我們只是——我們並沒有失去客戶賬戶。我認為客戶一直在支持我們，因為他們不可避免地知道，很多人仍在應對挑戰。我們繼續圍繞供應鏈中的挑戰進行更多的對話。我認為，第二，他們知道我們可能更接近於為我們客戶的產品轉向和恢復訂單，他們希望確保他們擁有根據需要可用的能力。

There were a lot of competitors that had embargoes in places and communication to customers saying, I'm picking you up today, but I can't pick you up tomorrow, and we were able to respond, in particular in 2021 to a lot of those customers that called on us needing capacity.

有很多競爭對手在地點和與客戶的溝通方面存在禁運，他們說，我今天來接你，但明天我不能接你，我們能夠做出回應，特別是在 2021 年，很多那些要求我們需要容量的客戶。

And so I think that, that strengthened the relationships that we have with our customers, and we've got a lot of continuity within our customer base anyway. So I think those -- everything that's happened over the last couple of years has really strengthened those customer relationships.

所以我認為，這加強了我們與客戶的關係，無論如何，我們在客戶群中有很多連續性。所以我認為那些 - 過去幾年發生的一切確實加強了這些客戶關係。

So I think that one of the things you said, as part of your question, though, gives us a little confidence in terms of when those orders for our customer products starts picking up again in the sense that, in prior cycles, like 2016 or 2019, where we may have lost a few lanes or lost a customer account, and we were always confident that the business would return to us in many cases because the customer told us that they wanted to bring this back in when they could. But we had to wait until the next bid cycle before we got that opportunity.

所以我認為，作為你問題的一部分，你所說的其中一件事讓我們對我們客戶產品的訂單何時開始再次回升有了一點信心，從某種意義上說，在之前的周期中，比如 2016 年或2019 年，我們可能失去了幾條車道或失去了一個客戶帳戶，但我們始終相信在很多情況下業務會回到我們身邊，因為客戶告訴我們他們希望在可能的時候把它帶回來。但我們必須等到下一個投標週期才能獲得這個機會。

Customers are keeping us in place. They're keeping their contracts current, pricing terms updated. And so I feel like that whenever those orders start picking up, we may be getting 3 shipments instead of 2 at every pickup and volumes should return to us quicker than perhaps they have in prior down cycles.

客戶讓我們保持原狀。他們保持合同最新，定價條款更新。因此，我覺得每當這些訂單開始回升時，我們每次取貨時可能會收到 3 批貨，而不是 2 批，而且數量應該比之前的下降週期更快地返回給我們。

Next question comes from Ari Rosa with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Ari Rosa。

Congrats, Greg. It's certainly been an impressive run that you've had, and congrats also to Marty on some big shoes to fill here. So I wanted to ask about, you guys have talked about for some time the ability to get the OR into the 60s. I understand, obviously, there are different puts and takes on kind of economic uncertainty maybe some cost inflation, but also talking about this inflection that's expected for second quarter.

恭喜，格雷格。你的表現肯定令人印象深刻，也祝賀馬蒂穿上了一些大鞋子來填補這裡的空缺。所以我想問一下，你們已經討論了一段時間讓 OR 進入 60 年代的能力。我明白，顯然，有不同的看跌期權和承擔某種經濟不確定性，也許是一些成本通脹，但也在談論預計第二季度的這種拐點。

It seems like there's some optimism there around the ability to perhaps improve OR year-over-year, which would certainly suggest that you're kind of bumping up against that ability to get the OR into the 60s. I just wanted to get your updated thoughts on kind of given the progression of OR improvement that we've seen over the last couple of years, do you think that OR in the 60s is achievable, whether it's 2023 or into 2024?

似乎人們對年復一年提高 OR 的能力持樂觀態度，這肯定表明你有點反對將 OR 推向 60 年代的能力。鑑於我們在過去幾年中看到的 OR 改進的進展，我只是想了解您的最新想法，您認為 OR 在 60 年代是可以實現的，無論是 2023 年還是 2024 年？

Well, again, I think like we were saying earlier, certainly, 2023, just given the environment, it's certainly going to be a little bit more challenging. And we're continuing to keep our eye for the future. We're investing or plan to invest $800 million in capital expenditures this year when the economy is certainly soft right now and we may end up being in a flattish type of revenue environment. So revenue will certainly dictate a lot.

好吧，我想就像我們早些時候說的那樣，當然，2023 年，考慮到環境，它肯定會更具挑戰性。我們將繼續關注未來。今年我們正在或計劃投資 8 億美元的資本支出，當時經濟肯定疲軟，我們最終可能會處於一種平淡的收入環境中。因此，收入肯定會起很大作用。

But I think that just given the comparison to the 2 years that we've talked about, and you can make your own assessments as to what you think revenue may end up being for us for this year. But if we're in a flattish revenue environment, then certainly, we've seen the operating ratio increased slightly in those years, but the positioning that we're going through is to make sure that we're in a great position to be able to respond when that inflection does happen and we get back to a revenue growth environment.

但我認為，只要與我們討論過的 2 年進行比較，您就可以對您認為今年我們的收入最終可能達到多少做出自己的評估。但如果我們處於一個平穩的收入環境中，那麼當然，我們已經看到那些年的營業比率略有增加，但我們正在經歷的定位是確保我們處於有利地位當這種變化確實發生並且我們回到收入增長環境時能夠做出響應。

And we've averaged 11% to 12% revenue growth per year over the last 10 years, and we think of ourselves as a growth company, but we're certainly going to be disciplined in periods where the economy is softer, and we've seen flattish type of revenue in those environments in the past when the economy has been slower. So I think certainly, a lot depends on that. But if we had any type of OR degradation in the short run, meaning just for this year, the positioning and the recovery year is usually pretty doggone strong. And so we continue to stand behind our goal of wanting to get to a sub-70 operating ratio.

在過去 10 年裡，我們的收入平均每年增長 11% 到 12%，我們認為自己是一家成長型公司，但我們肯定會在經濟疲軟的時期受到紀律處分，而且我們'在過去經濟放緩的情況下，我曾在這些環境中看到過持平類型的收入。所以我認為當然，很大程度上取決於此。但如果我們在短期內出現任何類型的 OR 退化，這意味著僅就今年而言，定位和復蘇年通常非常強勁。因此，我們繼續支持我們希望達到低於 70 的運營比率的目標。

We didn't put a time frame behind that when we laid it out last year at this time for this whole reason. We don't want to be beholden to something that's -- in the short run that may jeopardize our opportunity for producing strong profitable growth in 2024, '25 and beyond. And I'm confident that we'll certainly be able to get the sub-70 for the year. We certainly did it for 2 quarters this year in the second and third quarters. And so I think we've shown that it can be done.

出於這個原因，我們在去年這個時候制定時並沒有給出時間框架。我們不想受制於某些東西——在短期內可能會危及我們在 2024 年、25 年及以後實現強勁盈利增長的機會。而且我相信我們一定能夠在今年獲得低於 70 的成績。我們今年在第二季度和第三季度肯定做了兩個季度。所以我認為我們已經證明這是可以做到的。

And just to be clear, we continue to say that, that is our next goal, but it will not be the final goal. We think that we can continue to go further from there. But we're going to keep that goal in sight for now. And once we achieve it, then we'll lay out where the next stop might be in this long-term OR journey.

需要明確的是，我們繼續說，這是我們的下一個目標，但不會是最終目標。我們認為我們可以從那裡繼續走得更遠。但我們現在將保持這個目標。一旦我們實現了它，那麼我們將在這個長期的 OR 旅程中規劃下一站的位置。

Got it. Understood. And then I wanted to ask also, as I think about the conditions that you've kind of been describing for 2022, where volumes have been a little bit softer than what you would have hoped for. Obviously, we've seen headcount come down, and yet your earnings growth was obviously very strong this year at 35% plus. To what extent -- when you're going out and talking to customers, who maybe were a little bit squeezed on capacity during COVID conditions as supply chains normalize, does that put a little bit of a headwind on your ability to go to customers and kind of ask for rate increases? Or conversely, do they kind of push back and say, look, we gave you rate increases when capacity was really tight, but now the supply chain has kind of normalized a little bit. Are they pushing back any more on some of the rate increases relative to what they were over the past kind of 12 to 18 months?

知道了。明白了。然後我還想問，當我想到你一直在描述的 2022 年的情況時，銷量比你希望的要軟一些。顯然，我們已經看到員工人數下降，但今年你們的收入增長顯然非常強勁，超過 35%。在多大程度上——當你出去與客戶交談時，隨著供應鏈正常化，在 COVID 條件下他們的產能可能會受到一些擠壓，這是否會對你接觸客戶和有點要求加息？或者相反，他們是否會反駁說，看，我們在產能非常緊張的時候給了你加息，但現在供應鏈有點正常化了。相對於過去 12 到 18 個月的情況，他們是否進一步推遲了一些加息？

I think the answer to that is yes. They push harder when they know they are in a position to do so. And certainly, with conditions being soft like they've been, yes, they're pushing us for not as big of an increase and that kind of thing. But you got to remember, we don't necessarily go into a customer and start talking about price. We talk about the value that we provide that customer and that's what we will continue to sell them. We sell them value. And many times, value and price are pretty darn close, if you know what I mean because if you're not getting value, what does the price matter. So that's what we'll continue to sell. And thankfully, I think our customers have seen that and what OD has delivered over the years, and that's a huge reason for the success that we've had. So we'll continue to focus on selling value and not price and honestly, try not to have those conversations.

我認為答案是肯定的。當他們知道自己有能力這樣做時，他們會更加努力。當然，隨著情況像過去一樣疲軟，是的，他們正在推動我們不要那麼大的增長和那種事情。但你必須記住，我們不一定要進入客戶並開始談論價格。我們談論我們為客戶提供的價值，這就是我們將繼續向他們出售的價值。我們賣給他們價值。很多時候，價值和價格非常接近，如果你明白我的意思，因為如果你沒有獲得價值，價格又有什麼關係。所以這就是我們將繼續銷售的東西。值得慶幸的是，我認為我們的客戶已經看到了這一點以及 OD 多年來交付的產品，這是我們取得成功的一個重要原因。因此，我們將繼續專注於銷售價值而不是價格，老實說，盡量不要進行這些對話。

One of the things our sales team does a fantastic job of is sharing our costing with our customers, especially our large customers. We're an open book. We actually show them what we're paying for equipment, how much it costs to cross-dock their freight, pick it up, sort and say, get whatever the cost may be. And once you explain to them what our costs are, it's a lot easier to swallow a general rate increase. So I think most of our customers understand what our costs are. And we try to explain that to the best of our ability.

我們的銷售團隊做得非常出色的一件事就是與我們的客戶，尤其是我們的大客戶分享我們的成本。我們是一本打開的書。我們實際上向他們展示了我們為設備支付的費用，他們的貨物越庫、提貨、分類和說，無論成本是多少，都要花多少錢。一旦你向他們解釋了我們的成本是多少，就更容易接受普遍的加息。所以我認為我們的大多數客戶都了解我們的成本是多少。我們會盡力解釋這一點。

Okay. Makes a lot of sense. Congrats again, Greg and Marty.

好的。很有道理。再次恭喜格雷格和馬蒂。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

And I'll also echo congratulations, Greg, and congratulations, Marty. A lot of my questions have been answered at this point. Just kind of a real quick one on fuel and the potential headwind that you're talking a little bit about for '23. If I just look at this quarter, fuel surcharge revenue up $97 million incrementally, fuel expense up $48 million incrementally. So -- or $49 million. So the net of that was a positive $48 million. Total operating income was a positive $58 million. So I guess Part one is, is the math that simple that of the $58 million operating income improvement, $48 million was the fuel differential?

我也要祝賀你，格雷格，祝賀你，馬蒂。至此，我的很多問題都得到了解答。只是一種真正快速的燃料和潛在的逆風，你正在談論 23 年的一點點。如果我只看本季度，燃油附加費收入遞增 9700 萬美元，燃油費用遞增 4800 萬美元。所以 - 或者 4900 萬美元。因此，淨額為 4800 萬美元。總營業收入為正 5800 萬美元。所以我想第一個部分是，5800 萬美元的營業收入增長和 4800 萬美元的燃料差額之間的數學運算是否簡單？

And then, I guess if so, as I look at '23, given where fuel is right now, can you put or quantify what the magnitude of that headwind would be, say, the fuel surcharge component coming down, which you alluded to in the January data versus fuel expense?

然後，我想如果是這樣的話，當我看 23 年時，考慮到現在的燃料位置，你能不能給出或量化逆風的大小，比如說，燃油附加費部分下降，你在一月份的數據與燃料費用？

Yes. The short answer is that the math is really not that simple. Going back to prior comments, fuel is just one of many elements that get negotiated as part of a customer's rate each year. So it could be that we get more fuel surcharge in one particular year, more base rate than another. And so trying to look out and measure what the surcharge revenue piece is versus what the potential expense might be, it's not really a one-for-one comparison in that regard.

是的。簡短的回答是數學真的沒那麼簡單。回到之前的評論，燃料只是每年作為客戶費率的一部分進行協商的眾多要素之一。因此，我們可能會在某一年獲得更多的燃油附加費，比另一年獲得更多的基本費率。因此，試圖找出並衡量附加費收入與潛在費用可能是多少，在這方面並不是真正的一對一比較。

The surcharge, if a customer has decided to take on more variable exposure to that fluctuation in fuel, is covering many more cost settlements than just the cost of fuel and other petroleum-based products. Certainly, that's what it's designed to cover, but that's not everything that is covered by that variable component of pricing.

如果客戶決定承擔更多可變的燃料波動風險，那麼附加費將涵蓋比燃料和其他石油產品成本更多的成本結算。當然，這就是它旨在涵蓋的內容，但這並不是定價的可變部分所涵蓋的所有內容。

So again, I think the -- if you want to look back into a declining fuel environment, I would point people to look at 2015 and 2016. In '15, the average price of fuel was down 30% that year. Of course, we had volume growth. It was a little different macro environment. And so as a result, we were able to improve the operating ratio that year. In '16, the average price of fuel decreased further. It decreased about 15% that year, and that was one of the years, as I mentioned earlier, that we had a 60-basis-point increase in the operating ratio. The overall macro was a little softer. Volumes were certainly flattish that year.

所以，我認為——如果你想回顧燃料環境的下降，我建議人們看看 2015 年和 2016 年。15 年，燃料的平均價格下降了 30%。當然，我們有銷量增長。這是一個有點不同的宏觀環境。因此，我們能夠提高當年的運營率。 16年，燃油平均價格進一步下降。那一年它下降了大約 15%，正如我之前提到的，那是我們的運營比率增加了 60 個基點的年份之一。整體宏觀偏軟。那一年的銷量肯定是持平的。

And so a little bit different top line makeup, if you will. But -- so that's probably a little bit more relative comparison is looking back at how some of those revenue changes quarter-to-quarter and cost changes progressed in that year. But we're certainly managing through it, and we're looking at.

如果你願意的話，還有一點不同的頂線妝容。但是 - 所以這可能是相對比較多一點的是回顧那些收入中的一些季度變化以及當年成本變化的進展情況。但我們肯定正在通過它進行管理，並且我們正在關注。

We've got contracts that turn over every day, and they progress through the year. So if fuel stays where it is today, then we're looking at a contract with a base rate of fuel at $4.58 a gallon versus last year, we were looking at it and it would have been $5-something per gallon. So you just always got to look at what the current environment looks like and then try to risk adjust for do you think fuel prices may go up, if they do, again, how does the top line for each individual customer account change? And what do the cost inputs change?

我們的合同每天都在周轉，而且他們在一年中都在進步。因此，如果燃料保持在今天的水平，那麼我們正在尋找一份基本燃料費率為每加侖 4.58 美元的合同，而去年我們正在研究它，它本來是每加侖 5 美元左右。所以你總是要看看當前的環境是什麼樣子，然後嘗試風險調整，因為你認為燃料價格可能會上漲，如果他們這樣做，那麼每個客戶賬戶的頂線如何變化？成本投入會發生什麼變化？

If fuel goes down, you do the same thing and try to make sure that those fuel scales, as they work on each customer account, that we're still effectively getting paid for the service that we're providing, and like Greg said, the value that we are offering. And so that's what we stay focused on, and it's why it's so important for us to look at the profitability of each customer account.

如果燃料下降，你做同樣的事情並嘗試確保這些燃料規模，因為它們在每個客戶賬戶上工作，我們仍然有效地從我們提供的服務中獲得報酬，就像格雷格說的那樣，我們提供的價值。因此，這就是我們一直關注的重點，這就是為什麼查看每個客戶賬戶的盈利能力對我們來說如此重要。

But the math for the fourth quarter would be fair at face value, but there's more uncertainty to your point, looking to '23. Is that the right way to think about it?

但第四季度的數學從表面上看是公平的，但你的觀點有更多的不確定性，展望 23 年。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Well, certainly, there's uncertainty with respect to what fuel may end up averaging. We have seen it declining a little bit more and then it kind of reverts back and had a little bit of an increase over the last couple of weeks as well. But certainly, if it holds steady from here, maybe we see fuel prices that are down 10% or so this year. But I think it's better for the U.S. economy if we get back to a lower fuel environment, and certainly, we will deal with that from a company standpoint. It's not going to change our long-term objectives, and we're not changing our operating ratio goals just because fuel may ultimately decline. Those are certainly built into what our longer-term forecasts are. We think that it should decline overall. And hopefully, we get back to a lower fuel environment.

好吧，當然，關於最終平均燃料的不確定性。我們已經看到它下降了一點點，然後在過去幾週又恢復了一點點。但可以肯定的是，如果它從這裡保持穩定，我們可能會看到今年燃油價格下跌 10% 左右。但我認為，如果我們回到低燃料環境，對美國經濟會更好，當然，我們會從公司的角度來處理這個問題。這不會改變我們的長期目標，我們也不會僅僅因為燃油最終可能會下降而改變我們的運營比率目標。這些肯定包含在我們的長期預測中。我們認為它應該整體下降。希望我們能回到低燃料環境。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Gantt for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Greg Gantt，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Well, thank you for all your participation today. We appreciate your questions, and please feel free to give us a call if you have anything further. Thanks, and have a great day.

好的，謝謝大家今天的參與。感謝您提出問題，如果您有任何疑問，請隨時致電我們。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。