Origin Bancorp Inc (OBK) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

My name is James, and I'll be your Evercall coordinator. The format of this call includes prepared remarks on the company, followed by a question-and-answer session. Please note that all participants will be in a listen-only mode until the Q&A portion of the call. At this time, I will turn the call over to Chris Reigelman with Origin Bancorp. You may now begin.

我叫詹姆斯，我將成為你們的 Evercall 協調員。這次電話會議的形式包括準備好的有關公司的評論，然後是問答環節。請注意，在通話的問答部分之前，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。此時，我會將電話轉給 Origin Bancorp 的 Chris Reigelman。您現在可以開始了。

(presentation)

（推介會）

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. We issued our earnings press release yesterday afternoon, a copy of which is available on our website along with the slide presentation, that we will refer to during this call. Please refer to Page 2 of our slide presentation, which includes our safe harbor statements regarding forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures. For those joining by phone, please note the slide presentation is available on our website at www.origin.bank. Please also note, our safe harbor statements are available on Page 7 of our earnings release filed with the SEC yesterday. All comments made during today's call are subject to the safe harbor statements in our slide presentation, and earnings release.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。我們昨天下午發布了收益新聞稿，該新聞稿的副本以及幻燈片演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到，我們將在本次電話會議中參考。請參閱我們幻燈片演示的第 2 頁，其中包括我們有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標使用的安全港聲明。對於通過電話加入的人士，請注意幻燈片演示文稿可在我們的網站 www.origin.bank 上獲取。另請注意，我們的安全港聲明可在我們昨天向 SEC 提交的收益報告的第 7 頁上找到。今天電話會議期間發表的所有評論均以我們幻燈片演示和收益發布中的安全港聲明為準。

I'm joined this morning by Origin Bancorp's Chairman, President and CEO, Drake Mills; President and CEO of Origin Bank, Lance Hall; our Chief Financial Officer, Wally Wallace; Chief Risk Officer, Jim Crotwell; our Chief Accounting Officer, Steve Brolly; and our Chief Credit and Banking Officer, Preston Moore. After this presentation, we'll be happy to address any questions you may have. Drake, the call is yours.

今天上午，Origin Bancorp 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Drake Mills 也加入了我的行列。 Origin銀行總裁兼首席執行官Lance Hall；我們的首席財務官沃利·華萊士；首席風險官 Jim Crotwell；我們的首席會計官 Steve Brolly；以及我們的首席信貸和銀行官普雷斯頓摩爾。演示結束後，我們將很樂意解答您可能提出的任何問題。德雷克，電話由你接聽。

Thanks, Chris. As we enter the second half of the year of uncertainty, I am very pleased with our overall performance to date. Economic activity remains robust throughout our footprint with strong credit conditions. As the deposit wars continue to rage, we are committed to our strategy of exiting the cycle in a position that allows us to take advantage of opportunities that fit our model. I am proud of the way our bankers remain laser-focused on relationship pricing, credit quality, and client acquisition, as we navigate our market opportunities. Our culture continues to be at the forefront of how we make our decisions in building our company moving forward. The success our bankers are enjoying with new relationship acquisitions has been impressive. As an example, net account openings are up 15% year-over-year. This is a testament to our lift-out strategy, as well as our focus to create deeper banking relationships with existing clients.

謝謝，克里斯。隨著我們進入充滿不確定性的下半年，我對我們迄今為止的整體表現感到非常滿意。我們的業務範圍內的經濟活動依然強勁，信用狀況良好。隨著存款大戰繼續激烈，我們致力於退出週期的戰略，以便我們能夠利用適合我們模式的機會。在我們把握市場機遇時，我們的銀行家始終專注於關係定價、信貸質量和客戶獲取，我對此感到自豪。我們的文化仍然是我們在公司發展過程中做出決策的最前沿。我們的銀行家在新關係收購方面所取得的成功令人印象深刻。例如，淨開戶數量同比增長 15%。這證明了我們的退出戰略，以及我們致力於與現有客戶建立更深層次的銀行關係的努力。

This quarter's results were in line with our expectations. We finished the quarter with total assets of $10.2 billion, though we still anticipate we will finish the year under the $10 billion mark. Tangible common equity ratio at the end of the quarter was 8.3%. Tangible book value grew again this quarter to $26.71, credit quality remains strong with annualized net charge-offs to loans for the quarter of just 10 basis points, and nonperforming loans of just 44 basis points.

本季度的業績符合我們的預期。本季度結束時，我們的總資產為 102 億美元，但我們仍預計今年結束時的總資產將低於 100 億美元大關。本季度末有形普通股比率為 8.3%。本季度有形賬面價值再次增長至 26.71 美元，信貸質量依然強勁，本季度貸款年化淨沖銷僅 10 個基點，不良貸款僅 44 個基點。

I've been with this company for 40-plus years and leading it for more than 2.5 decades. My confidence in this management team is strong as it's ever been. Yes, the stock will have a short-term impact. But as we have throughout our long history, we will come out stronger than before. We continue to invest in our employees, technology and infrastructure, while remaining diligent with expense management. We remain focused on executing our long-term strategy and continue to provide value to stakeholders. Now I'll turn it over to Lance.

我在這家公司工作了 40 多年，並領導該公司超過 2.5 年。我對這個管理團隊一如既往地充滿信心。是的，該股票會產生短期影響。但正如我們在漫長的歷史中所經歷的那樣，我們將比以前更加強大。我們繼續投資於我們的員工、技術和基礎設施，同時保持勤奮的費用管理。我們仍然專注於執行我們的長期戰略，並繼續為利益相關者提供價值。現在我會把它交給蘭斯。

Thanks, Drake. Our market presidents and bankers clearly understand that we have to be smart in these types of cycles, and then to drive sustainable value, we must stay focused on building long-term relationships that value a community banking model. I consistently reinforce our commitment to our vision, and to our trusted adviser philosophy. Strategically executing on this commitment remains at the center of what we do. In this period, where deposit costs are rising and margins compressing across our industry, we feel it is critical to continue to focus on technology as an essential tool to drive efficiencies, eliminate manual processes, improve the speed of delivery, as well as enhance the overall client experience.

謝謝，德雷克。我們的市場總裁和銀行家清楚地認識到，我們必須在這些類型的周期中保持聰明才智，然後為了推動可持續價值，我們必須專注於建立重視社區銀行模式的長期關係。我不斷強化我們對願景和值得信賴的顧問理念的承諾。從戰略上執行這一承諾仍然是我們工作的核心。在這個時期，整個行業的存款成本不斷上升，利潤率不斷壓縮，我們認為繼續關注技術至關重要，將其作為提高效率、消除手動流程、提高交付速度以及增強服務的重要工具。整體客戶體驗。

We continue to grow our robotics process automation, have recently partnered with a fintech to enhance our call center and chat experience, and have created real-time data dashboards for our exec and relationship bankers. This focus on data analytics has given us deeper insight into our deposit client trends and behaviors. From this data, we are clearly observing, hidden by industry deposit loss and the cyclicality of our public funds, that Origin is experiencing meaningful growth in new deposit clients and new deposit accounts in 2023. From the data and surveys, we can see that our teams understand and are executing on our process, and our strategy of lifting out strong banking teams has been very successful.

我們繼續發展機器人流程自動化，最近與金融科技公司合作，以增強我們的呼叫中心和聊天體驗，並為我們的高管和關係銀行家創建了實時數據儀表板。對數據分析的關注使我們能夠更深入地了解存款客戶的趨勢和行為。從這些數據中，我們清楚地觀察到，在行業存款損失和公募基金周期性的影響下，Origin 在2023 年的新存款客戶和新存款賬戶上將出現有意義的增長。從數據和調查中我們可以看到，我們的團隊了解並執行我們的流程，我們淘汰強大銀行團隊的策略非常成功。

As Drake mentioned in his opening, our net deposit account openings have increased 15% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. Also, new deposit customer accounts are up 26% in the second quarter of 2023, compared to the same period last year. We will continue to focus on adding new customers and growing deposits through the second half of the year.

正如德雷克在開場白中提到的，我們第二季度的淨存款賬戶開設量與去年同期相比增加了 15%。此外，與去年同期相比，2023 年第二季度新增存款客戶賬戶增長了 26%。下半年我們將繼續專注於增加新客戶和增加存款。

On top of our existing 2023 banker incentive plan, we recently launched the new deposit-specific initiative with our producers, and within our banking centers that will strongly [incent] new deposit growth. We continue to communicate how deposit growth will govern our loan growth, and that remains top of mind, as we strategically loan into this cycle. We remain focused on pricing discipline and strong credit quality, while never losing our relationship-based approach to growing our clients.

除了我們現有的 2023 年銀行家激勵計劃之外，我們最近還與我們的生產商以及我們的銀行中心推出了新的存款特定計劃，這將有力地[刺激]新的存款增長。我們繼續溝通存款增長將如何控制我們的貸款增長，當我們戰略性地向這個週期提供貸款時，這仍然是首要考慮因素。我們仍然專注於定價紀律和強大的信用質量，同時永遠不會失去基於關係的方法來發展我們的客戶。

Our bankers remain disciplined with client selection and growing loans, and our pipeline remains strong throughout 2023. Our commitment to our culture, delivering for our clients and executing on our long-term strategy guides us in all that we do. I continue to be confident in our bankers in delivering meaningful results, and providing value for all of our stakeholders. Now I'll turn it over to Jim.

我們的銀行家在客戶選擇和不斷增加的貸款方面保持嚴格的紀律，我們的渠道在 2023 年仍然強勁。我們對文化、為客戶提供服務和執行長期戰略的承諾指導著我們所做的一切。我仍然對我們的銀行家交付有意義的成果並為所有利益相關者提供價值充滿信心。現在我把它交給吉姆。

Thanks, Lance. Our constant focus on relationship banking continues to deliver a well-diversified loan portfolio, and is a driver for our continued sound credit profile. As reflected on Slide 12, past due loans held for investment increased to 0.26% as of June 30, from a level of 0.16% as of the prior quarter-end, and compares favorably to historical levels of 0.50% and 0.42% as of December 31, 2021 and March 31, 2022. Nonperforming loans as a percentage of loans held for investment continues to normalize, increasing to 0.44% as of June 30 from 0.23% as of March 31 of this year and compares to levels of 0.49% and 0.41% as of December 31, 2021 and March 31, 2022.

謝謝，蘭斯。我們對關係銀行業務的持續關注繼續提供多元化的貸款組合，並推動我們持續保持良好的信用狀況。如幻燈片 12 所示，截至 6 月 30 日，用於投資的逾期貸款從上一季度末的 0.16% 上升至 0.26%，與截至 12 月的 0.50% 和 0.42% 的歷史水平相比，表現良好截至2021年3月31日和2022年3月31日。不良貸款佔投資性貸款的比例繼續正常化，從今年3月31日的0.23%升至6月30日的0.44%，而同期水平為0.49%和0.41截至2021年12月31日和2022年3月31日的%。

As reflected in our earnings release, a significant contributor in the increase in nonperforming loans held for investment was a transfer of $7.1 million in nonperforming mortgage loans held from the held for sale to the held for investment, the vast majority of which carry government guarantees. We continue to diligently monitor our loan portfolio and proactively address any identified issues. These ongoing efforts resulted in the $1.9 million reduction in our overall level of classified loans held for investment, from 1.17% as of March 31 to 1.11% as of June 30. Annualized net charge-offs for the quarter came in at 0.10% and compares favorably to the 0.12% level for Q2 2022.

正如我們的財報所反映的，投資性不良貸款增加的一個重要原因是，將持有待售的710 萬美元不良抵押貸款從持有待售的貸款轉移至持有投資的不良貸款，其中絕大多數都有政府擔保。我們將繼續努力監控我們的貸款組合，並積極解決任何已發現的問題。這些持續的努力導致我們為投資而持有的分類貸款總體水平減少了190 萬美元，從3 月31 日的1.17% 降至6 月30 日的1.11%。本季度的年化淨沖銷率為0.10 %，相比之下，有利地達到 2022 年第二季度 0.12% 的水平。

For the quarter, our allowance for credit losses increased $2.3 million to $94.4 million, slightly decreasing from 1.25% to 1.24% as a percentage of total loans held for investments. This percentage reduction was primarily the result of mortgage warehouse loan growth for the quarter, which requires a nominal reserve due to the strong historical performance of this segment. Net of mortgage warehouse, we did build our reserve from 1.30%, as of March 31 to 1.32%, as of the quarter end.

本季度，我們的信貸損失準備金增加了 230 萬美元，達到 9,440 萬美元，佔投資貸款總額的比例從 1.25% 略有下降至 1.24%。這一百分比下降主要是由於本季度抵押倉庫貸款增長的結果，由於該部門的強勁歷史表現，需要名義準備金。扣除抵押倉庫後，我們的準備金率確實從截至 3 月 31 日的 1.30% 增至截至季度末的 1.32%。

As to reserve levels, we continue to balance our sound credit quality and the resiliency of our loan portfolio with continued economic headwinds. In the event we do experience an economic recession, we continue to believe that the markets we serve will also be more resilient to its impact than other areas of the country. On Slide 13, we have updated the additional information on our CRE office portfolio that we shared last quarter. As of June 30, this segment of our portfolio totaled $389 million with an average loan size of only $2.2 million. The credit profile of this segment remains sound, reflecting a weighted average loan-to-value of 53.8%, no past dues, only 0.22% in classifieds, no nonperforming and no charge-offs. This segment of our portfolio continues its sound performance, driven by our relationship focus.

就準備金水平而言，我們繼續在良好的信貸質量和貸款組合的彈性與持續的經濟逆風之間取得平衡。如果我們確實經歷了經濟衰退，我們仍然相信，我們所服務的市場也將比該國其他地區更能抵禦經濟衰退的影響。在幻燈片 13 中，我們更新了上季度分享的有關 CRE 辦公室組合的更多信息。截至 6 月 30 日，我們投資組合的這一部分總額為 3.89 億美元，平均貸款規模僅為 220 萬美元。該部門的信用狀況依然良好，加權平均貸款價值比為 53.8%，無逾期未付款，分類貸款僅 0.22%，無不良貸款，無沖銷。在我們對關係的關注的推動下，我們投資組合的這一部分繼續保持良好的表現。

In summary, we continue to be pleased with the performance and position of our loan portfolio. I'll now turn it over to Wally.

總而言之，我們仍然對貸款組合的表現和狀況感到滿意。我現在把它交給沃利。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Turning to the financial highlights. In Q2, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.70 On an adjusted basis, Q2 EPS were $0.69 after excluding a $471,000 gain on the retirement of $5 million of our sub-debt that we repurchased during the quarter. Starting with deposits. We continued to see a shift of noninterest-bearing deposits into interest-bearing accounts. As a result, noninterest-bearing deposits declined 5.5% this quarter, and the mix fell to 25% of total deposits in Q2 from 28% in Q1 and from the peak of 35% last Q2. Importantly, the pace of the decline in Q2 was a deceleration from the pace we saw in Q1, which we view positively. However, we do anticipate some additional pressures over the next couple of quarters to our noninterest-bearing deposit mix.

謝謝吉姆，大家早上好。轉向財務亮點。第二季度，我們公佈的稀釋每股收益為 0.70 美元。經調整後，扣除本季度回購的 500 萬美元次級債務帶來的 471,000 美元收益後，第二季度每股收益為 0.69 美元。從存款開始。我們繼續看到無息存款轉向有息賬戶。結果，本季度無息存款下降了 5.5%，佔存款總額的比例從第一季度的 28% 和上季度峰值的 35% 降至第二季度的 25%。重要的是，第二季度的下降速度比我們積極看待的第一季度有所放緩。然而，我們確實預計未來幾個季度我們的無息存款組合將面臨一些額外的壓力。

Ultimately, combined with the continued need to price up interest-bearing deposits, our deposit betas continued to increase from 35% in Q1 to 42% in Q2, which is adding continued pressure to our net interest margin. We continue to expect our deposit beta will increase in the second half of the year. These deposit pressures continue to outstrip rising loan yields, and our net interest margin contracted 28 basis points during the quarter to 3.16% as a result. Excluding $530,000 in net accounting accretion, our adjusted NIM contracted 22 basis points to 3.14% from 3.36% in Q1. Notably, this rate of contraction was lower than the 37 basis points of contraction from Q4 to Q1.

最終，加上計息存款定價的持續需要，我們的存款貝塔係數從第一季度的 35% 持續上升至第二季度的 42%，這給我們的淨息差帶來了持續的壓力。我們繼續預計下半年存款貝塔值將會增加。這些存款壓力繼續超過不斷上升的貸款收益率，導致本季度我們的淨息差收縮 28 個基點至 3.16%。不包括 530,000 美元的淨會計增值，我們調整後的淨息差從第一季度的 3.36% 收縮了 22 個基點至 3.14%。值得注意的是，這一收縮率低於第四季度至第一季度的 37 個基點的收縮率。

Additionally, while we paid off our excess liquidity during the quarter, we still held portions of it throughout, which added 12 basis points of pressure to Q2 versus 6 basis points in Q1. Importantly, while down sequentially, our net interest margin and net interest income for Q2 were both generally in line with our expectations, giving us more confidence in our forward estimates. So while we expect rising deposit betas to continue to pressure net interest margin in Q3 and Q4, we see these pressures waning through each quarter.

此外，雖然我們在本季度償還了過剩的流動性，但我們仍然持有部分流動性，這給第二季度增加了 12 個基點的壓力，而第一季度為 6 個基點。重要的是，雖然環比下降，但我們第二季度的淨息差和淨利息收入總體上符合我們的預期，這讓我們對前瞻性預測更有信心。因此，雖然我們預計存款貝塔係數的上升將繼續對第三季度和第四季度的淨息差構成壓力，但我們認為這些壓力在每個季度都在減弱。

Shifting to fee income. We reported $15.6 million in Q2. Excluding the $471,000 gain on retirement of sub-debt mentioned previously, our adjusted fee income was $15.2 million, down from $16.2 million in Q1. The primary drivers of this decline were lapping the seasonal strength in our insurance business from Q1 and a decline in our mortgage banking segment revenue, as mortgage trends remain relatively weak in the current interest rate environment. Our noninterest expense increased to $58.9 million from $56.8 million in Q1. Growth in salaries and benefits, regulatory assessments and office and operations lines were the primary drivers of this increase. Notably, Q2 growth was actually slightly better than our expectations due to our renewed focus on expense management in the current environment, and we anticipate relatively stable expense levels in the second half of the year.

轉向手續費收入。我們報告第二季度收入為 1560 萬美元。排除前面提到的次級債務償還帶來的 471,000 美元收益，我們調整後的費用收入為 1520 萬美元，低於第一季度的 1620 萬美元。這一下降的主要驅動因素是我們的保險業務從第一季度開始的季節性強勢以及我們的抵押貸款銀行部門收入的下降，因為在當前的利率環境下抵押貸款趨勢仍然相對疲軟。我們的非利息支出從第一季度的 5680 萬美元增加到 5890 萬美元。薪資和福利、監管評估以及辦公室和運營部門的增長是這一增長的主要驅動力。值得注意的是，由於我們在當前環境下重新關注費用管理，第二季度的增長實際上略好於我們的預期，並且我們預計下半年費用水平相對穩定。

Turning to capital. Our TCE ratio remained above 8%, ending the quarter at 8.3%. Furthermore, as shown on Slide 21 of our investor presentation, all of our regulatory capital levels, at both the bank and holding company, remain above levels considered well capitalized, even if we were to include our AOCI losses in the calculations.

轉向資本。我們的 TCE 比率保持在 8% 以上，本季度末為 8.3%。此外，正如我們投資者演示文稿第 21 張幻燈片所示，即使我們將 AOCI 損失納入計算中，我們銀行和控股公司的所有監管資本水平仍高於資本充足水平。

To close, with an immaterial level of securities classified as held to maturity, we remain confident that we have the capital flexibility to take advantage of any potential future capital deployment opportunities to drive value for our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn it back to Drake.

最後，由於被歸類為持有至到期的證券數量並不重要，我們仍然相信我們擁有資本靈活性，可以利用任何潛在的未來資本部署機會，為股東創造價值。有了這個，我現在將其轉回德雷克。

Thanks, Wally. As I have traveled throughout the markets this past quarter, I'm reminded of how special Origin is. We have an incredible team of people who have a shared vision of who we are, and what we can accomplish. Our markets are diversified across our 3-state footprint, including a wealth of dynamic growth opportunities in our metropolitan larger markets, coupled with stable economies in our rural markets.

謝謝，沃利。當我上個季度走遍各個市場時，我想起了 Origin 的特別之處。我們擁有一支令人難以置信的團隊，他們對我們是誰以及我們能夠實現什麼有著共同的願景。我們的市場在三個州的足跡中實現多元化，包括大都市市場中豐富的動態增長機會，以及農村市場中穩定的經濟。

While we were not public at the time, I think back to how our bank was well positioned going into the '08-'09 downturn, and how we were able to capitalize on opportunities and build relationships that are still with us today. We are positioned to do the same in 2023, and I'm optimistic about what we will accomplish. Thanks to our employees who continue to do an incredible job of living out our culture and serving our customers and communities in a dynamic way. Thank you for being on the call today. We'll open up the call for questions.

雖然我們當時還沒有上市，但我回想起我們的銀行如何在 08-09 年的經濟低迷時期處於有利位置，以及我們如何能夠利用機會並建立至今仍然存在的關係。我們準備在 2023 年做同樣的事情，我對我們將取得的成就感到樂觀。感謝我們的員工，他們繼續出色地踐行我們的文化，以充滿活力的方式為我們的客戶和社區服務。感謝您今天接聽電話。我們將開放提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Matt at Stephens Inc.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Matt。

Great thanks, good morning everybody.

非常感謝，大家早上好。

Good morning, Matt.

早上好，馬特。

I want to start with loan growth. And if I take out the mortgage warehouse trends that were strong this quarter, it looks like the core loan growth trends slowed in 2Q from the pace that we saw in 1Q. And I guess if I just dig down and look by segment, it looks like the slowdown was mostly from the C&I category. Any general commentary on loan growth and C&I and C&I utilizations? And just more broadly, just love to hear a bit of thoughts on borrower appetite. Thanks.

我想從貸款增長開始。如果我除去本季度強勁的抵押貸款倉庫趨勢，那麼第二季度的核心貸款增長趨勢似乎比第一季度的速度有所放緩。我想，如果我深入挖掘並按細分市場查看，看起來經濟放緩主要來自工商業類別。對貸款增長、C&I 和 C&I 利用率有何一般評論？更廣泛地說，我只是想听聽關於借款人胃口的一些想法。謝謝。

Hey Matt, good morning, it's Lance. Yes, you're exactly right. It's interesting when you dig into the numbers, our actual new loan production volumes were really in line with where we thought they were going to be. There's an interesting combination of timing around C&I. At the same time, we saw clients using cash, commercial clients using cash to pay down debt. So interestingly, our utilization on our C&I lines actually dropped from 51% to 48%. So that was a little over $100 million in that regard. But as we look at pipelines, pipelines remain strong.

嘿馬特，早上好，我是蘭斯。是的，你說得完全正確。有趣的是，當你深入研究這些數字時，我們的實際新貸款產量確實與我們的預期相符。 C&I 周圍有一個有趣的時間組合。與此同時，我們看到客戶使用現金，商業客戶使用現金來償還債務。有趣的是，我們工商業線路的利用率實際上從 51% 下降到 48%。因此，這方面的金額略高於 1 億美元。但當我們審視管道時，管道仍然強勁。

And so as we think about what the second half looks like, we're going to continue to harp on loan growth is going to be governed by our ability to grow core deposits. And we're going to stay with that. So we would think for low- to mid-single digits on loan growth. I feel like the C&I is definitely going to come as we've seen some really nice projects through the pipelines, and kind of what we're already seeing in the quarter.

因此，當我們思考下半年的情況時，我們將繼續強調貸款增長將取決於我們增加核心存款的能力。我們將堅持下去。因此，我們認為貸款增長將達到低至中個位數。我覺得 C&I 肯定會到來，因為我們已經看到了一些非常好的項目正在醞釀之中，就像我們在本季度已經看到的那樣。

Okay. I appreciate the commentary, Lance, on the loan side. On the credit side, in your presentation, you have a nice detail there on the office portfolio. I think on Slide 13. On the debt service coverage ratios, I appreciate the stress scenario there with the higher rates that you mentioned in there. Would love to appreciate any takeaways the team had once you guys go through the deep dive of office and the stress test. What were your general thoughts on the portfolio and how much stress are you anticipating in that portfolio? And then any other details you have on office loans with respect to the maturities? I think we've seen some of your peers detail that in recent weeks, did know if you have anything on office maturities. Thanks.

好的。蘭斯，我很欣賞關於貸款方面的評論。從信用方面來說，在您的演示中，您有關於辦公室組合的詳細信息。我想在幻燈片 13 上。關於償債覆蓋率，我很欣賞您提到的較高利率所帶來的壓力。當你們深入了解辦公室和壓力測試後，我很樂意感謝團隊的任何收穫。您對投資組合的總體想法是什麼？您預計該投資組合會承受多大壓力？那麼您對辦公室貸款的到期日還有其他詳細信息嗎？我想我們已經看到你們的一些同行詳細說明了最近幾週的情況，確實知道你們是否有任何關於辦公室到期的信息。謝謝。

Matt, good morning, this is Jim. As to the portfolio and how it's performing, we feel really, really good about it. I think it's a direct result of the relationship focus that we have. One of the things we've also talked about is the primary and secondary source of repayment. We have a total portfolio in our CRE office of $380 million. The liquidity of the guarantor supporting those credits of $352 million. So that speaks to the financial support from the secondary. We shared the debt service coverage. We're very pleased when we shocked those that they still performed well. When we look at the fixed rate only portion of that from a debt service standpoint and shock, it looked quite -- we felt really good about that as well, showing at 1.75, we shocked it at 1.52.

馬特，早上好，我是吉姆。至於投資組合及其表現，我們感覺非常非常好。我認為這是我們關注關係的直接結果。我們還討論過的一件事是還款的主要和次要來源。我們的 CRE 辦公室的投資組合總額為 3.8 億美元。支持這些信貸的擔保人的流動性為 3.52 億美元。這說明了中學的財政支持。我們分享了償債保險。當我們讓那些人感到震驚時，我們感到非常高興，因為他們仍然表現出色。當我們從償債和衝擊的角度來看其中的固定利率部分時，它看起來相當 - 我們對此也感覺很好，顯示為 1.75，我們對 1.52 感到震驚。

One of the other things that we did is as we looked at the secondary source repayment from an LTV perspective. The original weighted average LTV for the sector is 54%, which is very, very strong. Again, when we shocked that at a cap rate of 10%, that strength weighted average LTV, it's 79%. And lastly, as far as looking forward from any maturities, we only have $5.2 million of fixed-rate loans in this sector that will reprice this year. And then when you look to '24, we have about $32 million is all that will reprice. So all in all, feel really, really good about this portfolio. And again, it's driven by our relationship focus throughout our markets.

我們做的其他事情之一是從 LTV 的角度看待二級來源還款。該行業最初的加權平均 LTV 為 54%，非常非常強勁。同樣，當我們震驚地發現上限率為 10% 時，該強度加權平均 LTV 為 79%。最後，就任何到期日而言，我們在該行業只有 520 萬美元的固定利率貸款，今年將重新定價。然後當你展望 24 年時，我們只有大約 3200 萬美元才能重新定價。總而言之，我對這個投資組合感覺非常非常好。同樣，這是由我們對整個市場的關係關注所驅動的。

Perfect. Okay. Thanks for that, Jim. And then I guess, shifting over towards deposits, deposit growth. I think Wally mentioned expectations for deposit betas to increase in the back half of the year. Would love to get much more general thoughts around this, the back half of the year. And then as it relates to the margin, thoughts on the margin in the back half of the year. Thanks.

完美的。好的。謝謝你，吉姆。然後我想，轉向存款，存款增長。我認為沃利提到了對今年下半年存款貝塔值增加的預期。希望在今年下半年獲得更多有關此問題的一般性想法。然後，由於與利潤率相關，因此我們對下半年的利潤率進行了思考。謝謝。

Thanks, Matt, good morning. So I said in the prepared remarks that we expect a continued increase in deposit betas, which will drive some further pressure on margins. Maybe to provide some context to how we're thinking about our deposit mix and the impact to margin in the back half of the year, the key is trying to figure out where our noninterest-bearing deposits are going to end up as a percentage of total deposits. So we went back and looked at rather than the cycle right before COVID, we went and looked back to the cycle in 2004 to 2006. And that cycle, the Fed hiked more aggressively. And in this cycle, it's been even more aggressive. In that cycle, our noninterest-bearing deposits, they bottomed in the mid-teens as a percentage of total deposits. But in that point of time, we were only in Louisiana.

謝謝，馬特，早上好。因此，我在準備好的發言中表示，我們預計存款貝塔係數將持續增加，這將對利潤率帶來進一步的壓力。也許為了提供一些背景信息，讓我們了解今年下半年的存款組合以及對利潤率的影響，關鍵是要弄清楚我們的無息存款最終將佔總存款的百分比。存款總額。因此，我們回顧了 2004 年至 2006 年的周期，而不是新冠疫情之前的周期。在那個週期，美聯儲加息更加激進。在這個週期中，它變得更加激進。在那個週期中，我們的無息存款佔總存款的百分比降至十幾歲左右。但那時我們只在路易斯安那州。

So what we did is we said, all right, let's assume that our Louisiana noninterest-bearing deposits declined to the mid-teens. And then let's look at our Texas markets. Relative to Louisiana, Texas is more C&I heavy. And as a result, they have more noninterest-bearing deposits as a percentage of total. So when we took Louisiana down, we assumed that our Texas markets shift down but remain similar to where they are now on a relative basis. So they come down, but they don't come down to the mid-teens.

所以我們所做的是我們說，好吧，讓我們假設我們路易斯安那州的無息存款下降到十幾歲左右。然後讓我們看看德克薩斯州的市場。相對於路易斯安那州，德克薩斯州的商業和工業更為密集。因此，他們的無息存款佔總存款的比例更高。因此，當我們拿下路易斯安那州時，我們假設德克薩斯州的市場會下降，但相對而言仍與現在相似。所以他們會下降，但不會下降到十幾歲。

If you put all that together, that would suggest that our noninterest-bearing deposits would get down into the low-20s percent. So we are now modeling a decline from 25%, where we ended the second quarter, down to about 20% - 21% by the end of the year. And what that has the effect of doing is increasing our deposit betas. We think we'll settle in around 50% on our total cumulative deposit beta. And that will drive net interest margin compression in the third quarter, and then again in the fourth quarter, but at lower rates than what we saw in the first and the second quarter. We anticipate that we'll end the year around 3% net interest margin, and we are targeting and trying to maintain that level moving forward and ultimately improve on it as we continue to see the impact of more disciplined loan pricing impact the loan side of the equation.

如果你把所有這些放在一起，那就意味著我們的無息存款將下降到百分之二十左右。因此，我們現在的模型是從第二季度末的 25% 下降到年底的 20% - 21% 左右。這樣做的效果是增加我們的存款貝塔值。我們認為我們的累積存款貝塔總額將穩定在 50% 左右。這將推動第三季度的淨息差壓縮，然後第四季度再次壓縮，但利率低於我們在第一季度和第二季度看到的水平。我們預計今年年底的淨息差將達到 3% 左右，我們的目標是並努力維持這一水平，並最終改善這一水平，因為我們繼續看到更嚴格的貸款定價對貸款方面的影響。方程。

Okay. That's helpful, Wally. Thanks for the commentary, and just following up on 1 of your points there on the noninterest-bearing deposit flows. Any commentary about what you're seeing more in recent months and weeks? Any kind of signs of stabilization there more recently?

好的。這很有幫助，沃利。感謝您的評論，並只是跟進您關於無息存款流動的觀點之一。對於您最近幾個月和幾週看到的更多情況有什麼評論嗎？最近有什麼穩定的跡象嗎？

Yes. If you look at what occurred in the first quarter, the shift in noninterest-bearing deposits was more than double what we saw in the second quarter. So we feel that that is suggesting that there is some stabilization in the trends. And we don't want to be too aggressive. We're trying to be conservative in our modeling. But we are modeling that that continues to stabilize through the course of the back half of the year.

是的。如果你看看第一季度發生的情況，就會發現無息存款的變化是第二季度的兩倍多。因此，我們認為這表明趨勢有所穩定。我們不想太激進。我們試圖在建模中保持保守。但我們的模型顯示，這一情況在今年下半年將繼續穩定。

Okay. Okay guys, good job on the commentary. I'll go back in the queue.

好的。好的，伙計們，評論做得很好。我會回到隊列中。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael at Raymond James.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的邁克爾。

Hey good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. Morning, maybe just to circle the loop on the margin. So you guys -- the wholesale or the excess funding that you guys paid off, that was a 12 basis point drag. I assume you'll get that back, but still, just given the increase in betas and NIB mix shift or the NIV mix shift, you're still -- with all that, you're still expecting the margin down around 3% by the end of the year. Did I understand that right?

嘿大家早上好。感謝您提出我的問題。早上好，也許只是為了在邊緣畫圈。所以你們——你們支付的批發或超額資金，拖累了 12 個基點。我認為你會得到回報，但是，考慮到 beta 和 NIB 混合變化或 NIV 混合變化的增加，你仍然 - 儘管如此，你仍然預計利潤率會下降 3% 左右年底。我理解對了嗎？

Yes, Michael, that's correct. If you -- if you adjust for the impact of the excess liquidity that we had in the first quarter and then that we carried in the second quarter, in the first quarter, you would have shown net interest margin compression of 31 basis points. In the second quarter, that was 16 basis points. And then in the third quarter, we would expect the rate of decline or compression to decline, say, maybe cut in half of what we saw in the second quarter, and then down maybe half again in the fourth quarter.

是的，邁克爾，這是正確的。如果你對第一季度和第二季度流動性過剩的影響進行調整，那麼第一季度的淨息差將壓縮 31 個基點。第二季度為 16 個基點。然後在第三季度，我們預計下降或壓縮率會下降，比如說，可能會減少第二季度的一半，然後在第四季度可能會再次下降一半。

Okay, thanks for that. And then I think I heard that you guys were targeting flatt-ish noninterest expenses for the next quarter or so. Can you just talk about -- just given the spread compression that you expected to have, just what more you can do to offset some of that? I understand that you're a growth franchise and trying to balance that with trying to preserve profitability, but what more can you guys do to offset some of those set-income pressures?

好的，謝謝。然後我想我聽說你們的目標是下個季度左右的非利息支出持平。您能否談談——考慮到您期望的價差壓縮，您還可以做些什麼來抵消其中的一些影響？我知道你們是一家增長型特許經營公司，並試圖在保持盈利能力的同時努力平衡這一點，但是你們還能做些什麼來抵消一些設定收入的壓力呢？

Hello, it's Drake. Yes, we have what I would call a laser focus on expense management and areas that aren't being productive for us at this point as we move into the second half of the year. So it's going to be the responsibility of this team to ensure that we continue the momentum we saw in the last couple of years of making progress even though we're going to take a step back in an efficiency standpoint. In ROA, we will continue to focus on areas that are not being productive to us, as I said just a few minutes ago. And I think we can provide some success there. We -- where I think with the footprint growth that we have, what we're focused on from an expense, management standpoint doesn't in any way impact the momentum we see from a profitable growth perspective, and that's going to be our focus.

你好，我是德雷克。是的，當我們進入下半年時，我們將重點放在費用管理和目前對我們來說沒有生產力的領域上。因此，這個團隊有責任確保我們繼續保持過去幾年取得進展的勢頭，儘管我們將在效率方面後退一步。在 ROA 中，我們將繼續關注那些對我們沒有生產力的領域，正如我幾分鐘前所說的那樣。我認為我們可以在那裡取得一些成功。我認為，隨著我們的足跡增長，我們從費用、管理角度關注的重點不會以任何方式影響我們從盈利增長角度看到的勢頭，這將是我們的重點。

Got it. You guys have pretty solid capital ratios. We've seen a few banks, I'd say an increasing number of banks do at least some partial bond portfolio restructuring to help offset some of the NIM pressure. Is that something that you guys have or would consider? And if so, I mean, what would be the kind of potential size that you could potentially look at? Thanks.

知道了。你們的資本比率相當穩定。我們已經看到了一些銀行，我想說越來越多的銀行至少進行了部分債券投資組合重組，以幫助抵消一些淨息差壓力。這是你們已經或會考慮的事情嗎？如果是這樣，我的意思是，您可能會考慮的潛在規模是多少？謝謝。

Yes. We actually had a couple of projects that Wally was working before SVB that gave us some opportunities to take some gains in some areas that would have been beneficial to be able to offset the losses in that portfolio to better position us. And when I say better position, it's probably to pay down debt would be most efficient way for us to utilize those sales. The concern we had and the optics of that certainly put that on the back burner, and I think there's an opportunity for us to move forward with a couple of those projects. So we are going to be looking at every possible trigger we can pull to put ourselves in a better position from a portfolio perspective moving forward. And I just feel like that's going to be top of mind for us in the next 2 quarters.

是的。實際上，沃利在SVB 之前正在從事幾個項目，這給了我們一些機會，讓我們能夠在某些領域獲得一些收益，這將有利於抵消該投資組合中的損失，從而更好地定位我們。當我說更好的地位時，償還債務可能是我們利用這些銷售的最有效方式。我們所擔心的問題以及由此帶來的後果肯定會被擱置一旁，我認為我們有機會推進其中的幾個項目。因此，我們將尋找一切可能的觸發因素，從投資組合的角度來看，讓我們自己處於一個更好的位置。我只是覺得這將成為我們未來兩個季度的首要任務。

All right. Maybe finally for me, we've seen an interesting 2 deals here the past few days. Seems like the chatter is picking up. Again, I know your currency is probably not where you want it to be, but can you just talk about your expectations for the M&A environment and what you guys would, in theory, be looking for as we move into the next couple of years? Thanks.

好的。也許最後對我來說，過去幾天我們在這裡看到了兩筆有趣的交易。看來議論聲越來越大了。再說一次，我知道你的貨幣可能不是你想要的，但你能談談你對併購環境的期望嗎？理論上，當我們進入未來幾年時，你們會尋找什麼？謝謝。

And this is 1 of the, I would say, exciting aspects of this market. There's always opportunities when you look at challenges and the relationships that we've built in these markets, the opportunity we had with BTH to create a partnership, and also a reputation of how we're going to manage these opportunities have been highly beneficial to us. So I'm excited about what the outlook is. I know the currency is not where we want it to be. But when you build partnerships and you take opportunities, there are opportunities even where the market is today for an upside down the road. So we will -- I think that's partially job 1 for me is to continue to look through those opportunities and hopefully, something comes to the forefront that's meaningful. But if we do something, this is our best utilization of capital at this point. It will be meaningful, and it will be what I think our investors would expect in this type of market.

我想說，這是這個市場令人興奮的方面之一。當你審視挑戰時，總會有機會，我們在這些市場中建立的關係、我們與 BTH 建立合作夥伴關係的機會，以及我們將如何管理這些機會的聲譽，都對我們非常有利。我們。所以我對前景感到興奮。我知道貨幣並沒有達到我們想要的水平。但是，當您建立合作夥伴關係並抓住機會時，即使當今的市場出現逆轉，也存在機會。因此，我們將——我認為對我來說，部分工作就是繼續尋找這些機會，並希望能夠出現一些有意義的東西。但如果我們做點什麼，這就是我們目前對資本的最佳利用。這將是有意義的，我認為這將是我們的投資者對此類市場的期望。

Great, (inaudible) thanks for answering my question.

太好了，（聽不清）感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brady at Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods. Brady, your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods 的 Brady。布雷迪，您的線路已開通。

Okay, thank you. Good morning, guys.

好的謝謝。早上好傢伙。

Good morning, Brady. How are you today?

早上好，布雷迪。你今天怎麼樣？

Doing all right. I just wanted to clarify the expense guidance of stable in the back half of this year. If I look at the expenses in the first half, it was about $57 million and then about $59 million in 2Q. Is it based on the 2Q level or an average of the first half of the year?

做的一切都好。我只是想澄清今年下半年穩定的費用指導。如果我看一下上半年的支出，大約是 5700 萬美元，第二季度大約是 5900 萬美元。是按二季度水平還是上半年平均水平？

That's a good point. Our expectation is that it will be flatt-ish from the second quarter number.

那是個很好的觀點。我們的預期是與第二季度的數字持平。

Okay. All right. And then, so back under $10 billion by the end of this year. You'll most certainly probably cross next year. I think in the past, you guys have talked about a Durbin impact of about $5 million. Is that still the right way to think about it, and is there anything you can do to offset that revenue headwind?

好的。好的。然後，到今年年底，這一數字將回落到 100 億美元以下。明年你肯定會穿越。我想過去你們談論過杜賓的影響約為 500 萬美元。這仍然是正確的思考方式嗎？您可以採取什麼措施來抵消收入逆風嗎？

Yes, that Durbin impact is about $5 million, that will hit us midyear '25 if we're successful this year, which I think we will be. We have talked about noninterest income opportunities that we will continue to, I think, drive and be successful at from not only insurance, but some other opportunities that we have. Unfortunately, for us, multiples as we talked about in the past on these agencies have gotten a little bit out of hand in a market where I think is the top of the market from how hard the market is, even though we feel like that will be extended for a little bit longer period of time, just not a good time to be there. But I do think midyear next year, we should be able to see some opportunities up and hopefully get back in there. But we do feel that there is an opportunity to replace that revenue with noninterest income. It makes a tremendous amount of sense.

是的，杜賓的影響約為 500 萬美元，如果我們今年取得成功，這將在 25 年年中對我們產生影響，我認為我們會取得成功。我們已經討論了非利息收入機會，我認為，我們將繼續推動這些機會並取得成功，不僅來自保險，還來自我們擁有的其他一些機會。不幸的是，對我們來說，我們過去談到的這些機構的市盈率在市場上已經有點失控了，我認為從市場的艱難程度來看，市場已經達到了頂部，儘管我們覺得這會延長一段時間，只是不是在那裡的好時機。但我確實認為明年年中，我們應該能夠看到一些機會，並希望能重新回到那裡。但我們確實認為有機會用非利息收入取代該收入。這非常有意義。

Okay. And then finally for me is, so low- to mid-single-digit loan growth. I think in the past, you guys have talked about you're hoping that deposit growth would be even above loan growth. And so is that still the goal and the right way to think about it for the rest of the year?

好的。最後對我來說是低至中個位數的貸款增長。我想過去你們曾說過希望存款增長甚至高於貸款增長。那麼，這仍然是今年剩餘時間的目標和正確的思考方式嗎？

It is, and as we said in the opening remarks, it's interesting, as you know, this institution is always focused on core deposit growth. We've incented core deposit growth for years. But the -- some of the activities that we have going on and programs that have going on internally to incent significant deposit growth. And when I say deposit growth, I mean core deposit growth. I think we'll see some success there. And we're starting to see stabilization in a lot of areas.

確實如此，正如我們在開場白中所說，有趣的是，正如您所知，該機構始終專注於核心存款增長。多年來我們一直在刺激核心存款增長。但是，我們正在內部進行一些活動和計劃，以刺激存款的大幅增長。當我說存款增長時，我指的是核心存款增長。我想我們會在那裡看到一些成功。我們開始看到許多領域趨於穩定。

And historically, and I always want to make this point, you go back for the last several years, the second quarter for us has been a tough deposit quarter because of the outflows not on public funds, but the utilization of noninterest-bearing deposits through our companies. We typically see a strong move in the third and fourth quarters. So we're expecting that in the third quarter. We're expecting a lot of stabilization in the third quarter from a couple of areas.

從歷史上看，我一直想指出這一點，回顧過去幾年，第二季度對我們來說是一個艱難的存款季度，因為資金外流不是公共資金，而是通過無息存款的利用我們的公司。我們通常會在第三和第四季度看到強勁的走勢。所以我們預計第三季度會出現這種情況。我們預計第三季度幾個領域將趨於穩定。

So I am hopeful. I do feel that we're in markets with inward migration that will give us the opportunity to see positive deposit growth. But that is a challenge for us at this point. We've been dedicated, committed to maintaining lower than traditional loan deposit ratios, and that's what's driving our loan growth at this point. But it's also given us an opportunity to focus on profitable pricing and to make sure that we're being highly selective in the credit and credit qualities. The client selection process we're going through right now, I couldn't be more pleased with. So relationship manager doing an awesome job, high focus on deposit growth, I think we'll see some success.

所以我充滿希望。我確實認為我們所處的市場有移民流入，這將使我們有機會看到存款的積極增長。但這對我們目前來說是一個挑戰。我們一直致力於維持低於傳統的貸款存款比率，這就是目前推動我們貸款增長的原因。但這也讓我們有機會專注於有利可圖的定價，並確保我們在信用和信用質量方面具有高度選擇性。我們現在正在經歷的客戶選擇過程，我非常滿意。因此，客戶關係經理做得非常出色，高度關注存款增長，我認為我們會看到一些成功。

All right, great. Thanks, guys.

好吧，太好了。多謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And next question comes from Kevin at D.A. Davidson. Kevin, your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kevin戴維森。凱文，你的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Drake, just a follow-up on M&A. I know this is a longer-term thing, but just giving the focus on deposits today, you've obviously built up the company mainly organically, and become a Texas growth story. But do you see your deals -- if there are deals, and I'm talking 2 or 3 years down the line, -- are they -- is it going to be more front of mind, loan growth opportunities deeper in Texas and maybe more opportunities in East Texas? Or will you be looking in more slower-growth states or good basis of core deposits, or is it both? I'm just trying to get a sense for where those rank in terms of opportunity.

嘿，大家早上好。 Drake，只是併購的後續行動。我知道這是一個長期的事情，但今天只要把重點放在存款上，顯然你已經主要有機地建立了公司，並成為德克薩斯州的增長故事。但是你看到你的交易了嗎？如果有交易，我說的是兩三年後，它們是否會更受關注，德克薩斯州更深層次的貸款增長機會，也許東德克薩斯州有更多機會嗎？或者您會尋找增長較慢的州或核心存款基礎良好的州，還是兩者兼而有之？我只是想了解一下這些人在機會方面的排名。

Our primary focus and we have at this point, I'd say, 2 to 3 relationships that we continue to build on that I think could be highly productive for this company. It would be great partnerships. Those are focused in geographies that we are currently in growth areas. The upside of these opportunities is they have strong rural deposit franchises, that are meaningful and always have been meaningful to us. We understand how to build those type of markets. And we do feel that there is a strong need for us to continue to focus on rural deposit franchises.

我想說，我們目前的主要關注點是我們繼續建立的 2 到 3 種關係，我認為這對這家公司來說是非常高效的。這將是很好的合作夥伴關係。這些主要集中在我們目前處於增長區域的地區。這些機會的好處是它們擁有強大的農村存款特許經營權，這對我們來說很有意義，而且一直很有意義。我們了解如何建立此類市場。我們確實認為我們非常需要繼續關注農村存款特許經營權。

So that's what we're looking at now. And I hope it's not 2 to 3 years. I hope that there's opportunities for these partnerships to form and work for the upside, and that's the approach we're taking. But it's currently focused in footprint. It's focused on continuing the Texas growth story. Core deposit, rural core deposit opportunities that makes sense for us. So that's the focus, and that's the opportunity we have at this point.

這就是我們現在正在研究的。我希望這不是兩三年。我希望這些合作夥伴關係有機會形成並發揮積極作用，這就是我們正在採取的方法。但目前它的重點是足跡。它的重點是延續德克薩斯州的增長故事。核心存款、農村核心存款機會對我們來說有意義。這就是重點，這就是我們目前擁有的機會。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Wait, Kevin I would say that for us to cover up some of this cycle's impact to earnings, those are highlighted more. And so earnings and their ability to earn, is going to be another driver for those decisions.

等等，凱文，我想說的是，為了掩蓋這個週期對盈利的一些影響，這些都更加突出。因此，收入和他們的賺錢能力將成為這些決定的另一個驅動因素。

Got it. Makes sense. One quick question. I know low- to mid-single-digit growth for loan, that outlook is most likely ex-warehouse. I'm just curious where you see warehouse going from here. I know it had a big bump this quarter, but where do you see those balances going?

知道了。說得通。一個簡單的問題。我知道貸款的增長率為低至中個位數，這種前景很可能是除倉庫外的。我只是好奇你會看到倉庫從這裡走向何方。我知道本季度有很大的增長，但您認為這些餘額去哪兒了？

Yes, I think we'll be down, let's say, $30 million to $40 million in the third quarter and probably finish up the end of the year around $300 million.

是的，我認為第三季度我們會減少 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元，到年底可能會減少 3 億美元左右。

Got it. Okay, thanks very much. That's (inaudible)

知道了。好的，非常感謝。這就是（聽不清）

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Stephen from Piper Sandler. Stephen, your line is open, you may proceed.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Stephen。斯蒂芬，您的線路已接通，您可以繼續。

Great. Thanks so much. Good morning, everyone. Drake, I just wanted to follow up. You said any potential M&A would be meaningful. I guess I'm just curious what you mean by that explicitly. Is that a -- is that a comment on what the size of a potential deal could be? And if so, do you have a size range that you think about what becomes meaningful or impactful for you guys at this point?

偉大的。非常感謝。大家，早安。德雷克，我只是想跟進。你說任何潛在的併購都是有意義的。我想我只是好奇你的明確意思是什麼。這是對潛在交易規模的評論嗎？如果是這樣，您認為目前對你們來說有意義或有影響力的尺寸範圍是什麼？

Yes. Meaningful to me is that it will be -- it will hit the metrics that I think investors and myself would like to see from the standpoint of earn back, and the accretive nature of the impact it has on the deposit franchise as a whole, the ability to grow that deposit franchise, the people that are behind those M&As and the relationships that are, I would say, partnerships and those relationships that we bring in, that's meaningful to me. But from a size perspective, it's just getting difficult with the expense and the stress it has in the organization and everything for us to look at a deal that's less than $1 billion. And I think that's where we try to focus that and above.

是的。對我來說有意義的是，它將達到我認為投資者和我自己希望從盈利角度看到的指標，以及它對整個存款業務的影響的增值性質，發展存款業務的能力、這些併購背後的人員以及我想說的合作夥伴關係以及我們引入的關係，這對我來說很有意義。但從規模角度來看，由於費用和組織所承受的壓力以及我們考慮一筆低於 10 億美元的交易的一切因素，這變得越來越困難。我認為這就是我們努力關注的重點。

Okay. Super. That's very helpful. I'm curious how you guys are thinking about balance sheet mix composition from this point forward, how you can make the balance sheet more efficient, I guess, maybe somebody said a little bit earlier. And within that, how you think about your securities balances, if we would expect those to continue to run down and repurpose those funds into loan growth or otherwise.

好的。極好的。這非常有幫助。我很好奇你們從現在開始如何考慮資產負債表的組合構成，如何使資產負債表更加高效，我想，也許有人早些時候說過。其中，您如何看待您的證券餘額，如果我們預計這些餘額會繼續減少並將這些資金重新用於貸款增長或其他用途。

Yes, Stephen. So we definitely anticipate that we will continue to let the securities portfolio pay off and be replaced with either funding loan growth, or paying down borrowings. That comment is outside of any potential opportunity we have to accelerate that mix. I think that our ideal balance sheet securities mix from an optimization standpoint would be in the 12% to 15% range. And I think we think that gives us the proper mix of liquidity to fund loan growth, and the ability to provide some yield on the liquidity, on the liquidity that we're holding.

是的，斯蒂芬。因此，我們肯定預計我們將繼續讓證券投資組合獲得回報，並被融資貸款增長或償還借款所取代。這一評論不屬於我們必須加速這種混合的任何潛在機會。我認為，從優化的角度來看，我們理想的資產負債表證券組合應在 12% 至 15% 的範圍內。我認為，這為我們提供了適當的流動性組合，為貸款增長提供資金，並能夠根據我們持有的流動性提供一定的流動性收益。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, Wally. And then maybe just a last thing for me. I'm really interested in the digital initiatives and the strength of the new customer acquisition that seems to be coming out of that. Is there any kind of specific wins or specific benefits that you could reference that's really driving that, or is it more just an increased focus blocking and tackling? I'm just curious if you can dig down into those digital initiatives at all to speak to the benefit.

好的。完美的。謝謝，沃利。然後也許對我來說是最後一件事。我對數字化舉措以及由此產生的新客戶獲取的力量非常感興趣。是否有任何具體的勝利或具體的好處可供您參考，這真正推動了這一點，或者只是增加了焦點阻擋和應對？我只是好奇你是否可以深入研究這些數字計劃來談論其好處。

Yes. Hey, so this is Lance. Good question. A couple of things there. Maybe I'll start with -- really for us, we went through a big data cleanse last year that was really helpful. So we talked about better insights into trends and behaviors. And I think what that showed us this year, that maybe we didn't have the ability to see clearly before was the new client acquisition that we've obtained this year. So that's not a because of the digital, but it's what the data has been able to and our ability to call in a more meaningful way and understand why clients are moving to us.

是的。嘿，這是蘭斯。好問題。有幾件事。也許我會從——對我們來說，去年我們進行了一次大數據清理，這確實很有幫助。因此，我們討論了對趨勢和行為的更好見解。我認為今年向我們展示的，也許我們以前沒有能力清楚地看到的是我們今年獲得的新客戶。所以這不是因為數字化，而是因為數據能夠做到這一點，以及我們以更有意義的方式進行呼叫並理解客戶為何轉向我們的能力。

So we had significant new client acquisition through the first half of the year, dramatically more than we did in the first half of last year. And it's really a function of really good job from our bankers, from calling efforts. But also, we've talked a lot historically, about our incentive plans. Our incentive plans have always been deposit-centric and driven. Historically, for us, $1 in deposits has been equal to $1 in loans. And so you create a mentality of not having lenders but having true relationship bankers. In 2023, $1 of deposits is more incentive than $1 of loans. And so our bankers understand what we're trying to accomplish.

因此，我們在今年上半年獲得了大量新客戶，遠遠多於去年上半年。這確實是我們銀行家的出色工作和呼籲努力的結果。而且，我們已經就我們的激勵計劃進行了很多歷史性的討論。我們的激勵計劃始終以存款為中心和驅動。從歷史上看，對我們來說，1 美元的存款等於 1 美元的貸款。因此，你會產生一種心態：沒有貸款人，但有真正的關係銀行家。到 2023 年，1 美元的存款比 1 美元的貸款更具激勵性。因此，我們的銀行家了解我們想要實現的目標。

At the same time, we are doing a lot on the digital and technology side, as we talked about. We continue to enhance our robot process automation. We have a goal of 8,000 manual hours this year to reduce what are being burdened on our people, so that we can create and drive more efficiency. We're excited to partner with a firm called Glia, which is going to be coming in the second half of this year, which is going to be a much more robust and dynamic experience for our clients when it comes to chat and call services. And we continue to try to find best-in-class when it comes to mobile and a lot of other areas. I mean, we feel, for us, the technology needs to be a dramatic driver as we -- as an industry, I think, ultimately, we need to get our efficiency ratio down in the 40's. I think technology is the way to do it.

與此同時，正如我們所說，我們在數字和技術方面做了很多工作。我們不斷增強機器人流程自動化。我們今年的目標是 8,000 個人工小時，以減少員工的負擔，從而提高效率。我們很高興與一家名為 Glia 的公司合作，該公司將於今年下半年推出，在聊天和呼叫服務方面，這將為我們的客戶提供更加強大和動態的體驗。我們繼續努力在移動和許多其他領域尋找一流的產品。我的意思是，我們認為，對於我們來說，技術需要成為一個巨大的驅動力，因為我認為，作為一個行業，最終我們需要將效率比降低到 40 多歲。我認為技術是實現這一目標的方法。

Yes, hard to disagree with that. Appreciate all the color, and thanks for the time today.

是的，很難不同意這一點。欣賞所有的顏色，感謝今天的時間。

Stephen, thank you.

斯蒂芬，謝謝你。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) It appears there are currently no further questions. Handing it back to Drake Mills with Origin Bancorp for any final remarks.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）目前似乎沒有其他問題。將其交還給 Origin Bancorp 的 Drake Mills 以徵求最終意見。

Thank you for everyone for being on the call today. And I will close with saying that, certainly, there are opportunities for us to look at the challenges in the markets we're in, but I cannot be more proud of this organization from the standpoint of the positives that we're dealing with every day. Our geography, we have a strong economy, attractive demographics. Inward migration, our teams are experienced and cohesive. Our credit profile is stronger than it's ever been. Our client selection process through our relationship managers have never been better and stronger, and we're talking to the right type of clients.

感謝大家今天接聽電話。最後我要說的是，當然，我們有機會審視我們所處市場的挑戰，但從我們正在應對的每一個積極因素的角度來看，我為這個組織感到無比自豪。天。我們的地理位置、我們擁有強大的經濟和有吸引力的人口結構。向內移民，我們的團隊經驗豐富，富有凝聚力。我們的信用狀況比以往任何時候都更強。我們通過客戶經理進行的客戶選擇流程從未如此完善和強大，而且我們正在與正確類型的客戶交談。

Our deposit base, deep relationships rule backgrounds in a lot of areas. We continue to see growth, new account openings, new clients and the type of accounts we're bringing over in line with our C&I profiles. And last thing, the opportunities in our geography as we go through the next 2 years, are strong. We are building relationships that are meaningful, that will be impactful and they will change the outlook of this organization moving forward. So very proud of our banker activity, the client relationships we have, the position we're in. Very proud to be a part of this organization. I appreciate each of you being on the call, and I appreciate your support. So we'll see you next time. Thank you.

我們的存款基礎和深厚的關係決定了許多領域的背景。我們繼續看到增長、新賬戶開設、新客戶以及我們根據我們的 C&I 概況引進的賬戶類型。最後一件事是，在接下來的兩年裡，我們的地理位置存在很大的機會。我們正在建立有意義、有影響力的關係，它們將改變這個組織前進的前景。我們對我們的銀行家活動、我們擁有的客戶關係以及我們所處的地位感到非常自豪。非常自豪能夠成為這個組織的一員。我感謝你們每一位來電，也感謝你們的支持。那麼我們下次再見。謝謝。

This concludes today's Evercall. A replay will be made available shortly. Thank you, and have a great day.

今天的 Evercall 就到此結束。很快就會提供重播。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。