New York Times Co (NYT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the New York Times Company's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加紐約時報公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Anthony DiClemente, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁安東尼·迪克萊門特 (Anthony DiClemente)。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to The New York Times Company's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today, we have Meredith Kopit Levien, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Will Bardeen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，歡迎參加紐約時報公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議有總裁兼執行長 Meredith Kopit Levien；執行副總裁兼財務長威爾‧巴丁 (Will Bardeen)。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management will make forward-looking statements during the course of this call. These statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may change over time. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties that are described in the company's 2022 10-K and subsequent SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，管理層將在本次電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的預期和假設，可能會隨著時間的推移而改變。由於公司 2022 年 10-K 和隨後的 SEC 文件中描述的許多風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

In addition, our presentation will include non-GAAP financial measures, and we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release, which is available on our website at investors.nytco.com.

此外，我們的簡報將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，並且我們在獲利新聞稿中提供了與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整表，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 Investors.nytco.com 上取得。

And finally, please note that a copy of the prepared remarks from this morning's call will be posted to our investor website shortly after we conclude. With that, I will turn the call over to Meredith.

最後，請注意，今天上午電話會議準備好的評論副本將在我們結束後不久發佈到我們的投資者網站上。這樣，我會將電話轉給梅雷迪絲。

Thanks, Anthony, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by noting this is deeply troubling and complex period for the world, with last month's horrific attack on Israel by Hamas, the ensuing war and devastation in Gaza, and the reverberating global consequences. In this difficult moment, The Times plays a vital role. With a century of expertise covering the region, our newsroom has dozens of journalists on the ground and many more around the globe, doing the essential work of original reporting and analysis to eliminate and contextualize these events, just as they've been doing for more than 1.5 years on the war in Ukraine.

謝謝安東尼，大家早安。首先，我要指出，對於世界來說，這是一個令人深感不安和複雜的時期，上個月哈馬斯對以色列進行了可怕的襲擊，隨後加薩發生了戰爭和破壞，並產生了波及全球的後果。在這個困難時刻，《泰晤士報》扮演至關重要的角色。我們的新聞編輯室擁有涵蓋該地區一個世紀的專業知識，在當地擁有數十名記者，在全球範圍內還有更多記者，他們從事原始報道和分析的基本工作，以消除這些事件並將其背景化，就像他們一直在做的那樣烏克蘭戰爭已經過去1.5年了。

Our mission, to seek the truth and help people understand the world, propels our business strategy. That strategy is to become the essential subscription for every curious English-speaking person seeking to understand and engage with the world. Our strong results in the third quarter underscore that our strategy is working as designed.

我們的使命是尋求真相並幫助人們了解世界，這推動了我們的業務策略。這項策略是成為每個尋求了解世界並與世界互動的好奇英語人士的必備訂閱。我們第三季的強勁業績凸顯了我們的策略正在按設計發揮作用。

Being essential means creating news coverage and lifestyle products that are sufficiently valuable, they drive audiences to seek us out directly and build enduring daily habits. We believe our best opportunity to build direct lifelong relationships is when people experience the full breadth and variety of our product portfolio packaged as a bundle. That bundle fuels our growth and our economic success in several ways.

重要意味著創造足夠有價值的新聞報導和生活方式產品，它們促使受眾直接尋找我們並養成持久的日常習慣。我們相信，建立直接的終生關係的最佳機會是當人們體驗到我們打包成的產品組合的全面性和多樣性時。該捆綁包以多種方式推動我們的成長和經濟成功。

First, our multiple products give us complementary audience funnel, each with the opportunity to meaningfully expand our reach. Second, we see better conversion of new users to paying subscribers as our varied product portfolio captures demand for a wide range of audience interest. Third, people who subscribe to our bundle engage and retain better as the bundle creates more opportunities for them to discover and enjoy our products. And fourth, we're achieving better monetization of our engaged audiences as the full bundle enhances value for subscribers, advertisers and licensees.

首先，我們的多種產品為我們提供了互補的受眾管道，每種產品都有機會有意義地擴大我們的影響力。其次，我們看到新用戶更好地轉換為付費訂戶，因為我們多樣化的產品組合滿足了廣泛受眾興趣的需求。第三，訂閱我們捆綁包的人可以更好地參與和保留，因為捆綁包為他們創造了更多發現和享受我們產品的機會。第四，我們正在為我們的參與受眾實現更好的貨幣化，因為整個捆綁包提高了訂閱者、廣告商和被授權人的價值。

For all these reasons, our essential subscription strategy continues to perform well, and we surpassed 10 million subscribers this quarter. That base of engaged subscribers gives us a large recurring revenue stream, powers our revenue streams beyond subscriptions, and enables continued investment into our competitive advantages, world-class journalism, premium lifestyle products, and the technology that underpins them. This, in turn, enables further growth and value creation.

基於所有這些原因，我們的基本訂閱策略繼續表現良好，本季訂閱人數超過 1000 萬。這些活躍的訂戶為我們帶來了巨大的經常性收入來源，推動了我們訂閱以外的收入來源，並使我們能夠持續投資於我們的競爭優勢、世界一流的新聞、優質的生活方式產品以及支撐它們的技術。反過來，這又可以實現進一步的成長和價值創造。

Indeed, we expect the quality and comprehensiveness of our news coverage and the scale and distinctiveness of our lifestyle products to fuel our progress toward our next milestone of 15 million subscribers. Importantly, we expect at least half of our subscribers over the next few years to be on the bundle. That matters because bundled subscribers engage more, stay longer and monetize better than subscribers to any individual product, thereby improving our unit economics and advancing our efforts to build a larger and more profitable company.

事實上，我們期望新聞報道的品質和全面性以及生活方式產品的規模和獨特性能夠推動我們邁向 1500 萬訂閱者的下一個里程碑。重要的是，我們預計未來幾年至少有一半的訂閱者將使用該捆綁包。這很重要，因為捆綁訂閱者比任何單一產品的訂閱者參與度更高、停留時間更長、盈利能力更好，從而提高了我們的單位經濟效益，並推動我們建立一家規模更大、盈利能力更強的公司。

I'll turn now to the major contributors to our third quarter results. This quarter, we met or beat quarterly guidance on subscription revenues, advertising revenues and adjusted operating costs. We added 210,000 net new digital subscribers in the quarter, and the bundle played an outsized role. It was the preferred choice for new subscribers by a wide margin and set another record in its share of overall starts. We achieved that strong net adds growth even as platforms sent fewer casual newsreaders to us and other publishers.

現在我將談談對我們第三季業績的主要貢獻者。本季度，我們達到或超過了訂閱收入、廣告收入和調整後營運成本的季度指引。本季我們淨新增 21 萬名數位訂閱用戶，捆綁銷售發揮了巨大作用。它大幅成為新訂戶的首選，並在整體啟動份額上創下了新紀錄。儘管平台向我們和其他出版商發送的休閒新聞讀者較少，但我們還是實現了強勁的淨增加成長。

We see our continued subscription growth in this environment as evidence that our investments in news and our wider product portfolio are paying off and that our strategy is building resilience.

我們認為在這種環境下訂閱量的持續成長證明我們對新聞和更廣泛的產品組合的投資正在獲得回報，而我們的策略正在增強彈性。

We also saw clear evidence that our non-news funnels are increasingly effective as on-ramps to the bundle. In Games, our homegrown hit Connections is now played by over 10 million users a week, another proofpoint for the scale of our opportunity in that space. And we grew The Athletic audience again in the quarter, reinforcing our conviction in the very big potential we see in sports.

我們也看到明確的證據表明，我們的非新聞管道作為捆綁包的入口越來越有效。在遊戲領域，我們自主研發的熱門遊戲 Connections 現在每週都有超過 1000 萬用戶玩，這再次證明了我們在該領域的機會規模。本季度，我們再次增加了 The Athletic 受眾群體，這增強了我們對體育運動巨大潛力的信念。

New York Times subscriber engagement hit its highest level in the quarter in nearly 3 years as measured by the percent of subscribers on our sites or apps each week. This is a testament to the depth and breadth of our news coverage as well as the ability of our product portfolio to meet different complementary needs.

《紐約時報》的訂戶參與度達到本季近 3 年來的最高水準（以每週訂閱我們網站或應用程式的百分比衡量）。這證明了我們新聞報導的深度和廣度，以及我們的產品組合滿足不同互補需求的能力。

We are steadily improving the monetization of our products with consolidated digital subscriber ARPU growing year-on-year for the second quarter in a row as well as quarter-on-quarter. I'll note that in Q3, we saw the largest ever volume of bundled subscribers graduate from promotional to higher prices. We're encouraged by the retention and monetization signals we're seeing among those cohorts, though it is still early days.

我們正在穩步提高產品的貨幣化水平，綜合數位用戶 ARPU 連續第二季度和環比增長。我要指出的是，在第三季度，我們看到有史以來最大數量的捆綁訂戶從促銷轉向更高的價格。我們對這些群體中看到的保留和貨幣化訊號感到鼓舞，儘管現在還處於早期階段。

Total advertising revenue grew 6% in the quarter, anchored by 3 strengths that we believe give us long-term advantage, despite near-term ad market headwinds. Those strengths are: one, our high-performing premium display canvasses and first-party data products, both of which are unique to The Times and emanate from the quality of our environment and scale of user engagement. Two, the fact that we are now extending our ad products across the bundle to attract new advertisers and categories. We're just getting started here and seeing particular success with The Athletic, which grew ad revenue more than threefold in the quarter. And three, our brand's enduring appeal for the world's top marketers who can reach our big and influential audiences through multiple channels across our platforms.

本季廣告總收入成長了 6%，儘管近期廣告市場面臨阻力，但我們相信這三大優勢將為我們帶來長期優勢。這些優點是：第一，我們的高效能優質展示畫布和第一方資料產品，這兩者都是《紐約時報》獨有的，源自於我們的環境品質和使用者參與規模。第二，我們現在正在將我們的廣告產品擴展到整個捆綁包中，以吸引新的廣告商和類別。我們才剛開始，並看到 The Athletic 取得了特別成功，該季度的廣告收入增長了三倍多。第三，我們的品牌對世界頂級行銷人員具有持久的吸引力，他們可以透過我們平台上的多種管道接觸到我們龐大且有影響力的受眾。

The overall advertising results in the quarter also benefited from better-than-expected resiliency in print, which we nevertheless expect to decline over time.

本季的整體廣告業績也受惠於印刷品的彈性優於預期，但我們預期印刷品的彈性會隨著時間的推移而下降。

On the cost side, we continue to actively manage our expenses. This cost discipline supports our ability to keep growing ARP and free cash flow, which we did again in Q3 even as we continued investing into our strategy.

在成本方面，我們繼續積極管理我們的開支。這種成本紀律支持我們保持ARP和自由現金流成長的能力，即使我們繼續投資於我們的策略，我們在第三季度再次做到了這一點。

I'll wrap by noting that the successful execution of our strategy reinforces our confidence in the path ahead. Our journalism and lifestyle products have made us the category leader in subscription journalism by a wide margin. Our essential subscription strategy is delivering steadily improving unit economics. And with this foundation and against the backdrop of an ever-changing information ecosystem, we believe strongly in our ability to achieve our financial goals and build a larger and more profitable company.

最後我要指出的是，我們策略的成功執行增強了我們對未來道路的信心。我們的新聞和生活方式產品使我們成為訂閱新聞領域的領先者。我們的基本訂閱策略是穩步提高單位經濟效益。有了這個基礎，在不斷變化的資訊生態系統的背景下，我們堅信我們有能力實現我們的財務目標，並建立一家更大、利潤更高的公司。

Now let me turn it over to Will for more details on the quarter.

現在讓我將其轉交給威爾，以了解有關本季的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Meredith, and good morning, everyone. Our essential subscription strategy is designed to do more than increased customer value and fuel growth. As Meredith just described, our bundle of market-leading news and lifestyle products is also designed to improve our digital unit economics and company profitability in a few ways.

謝謝梅雷迪思，大家早安。我們的基本訂閱策略不僅僅是為了增加客戶價值和促進成長。正如梅雷迪思剛才所描述的，我們市場領先的新聞和生活方式產品包還旨在透過多種方式提高我們的數位單位經濟效益和公司獲利能力。

First, we plan to increase our subscriber lifetime value over time because of the bundle strong engagement, retention and ARPU potential. Second, we expect to sustain attractive subscriber acquisition costs as the bundle converts organic demand for multiple areas of audience interest. And third, we expect strong engagement with our scaled subscriber base will fuel the growth of our additional advertising affiliate and licensing revenue streams.

首先，我們計劃隨著時間的推移增加我們的用戶生命週期價值，因為捆綁包具有強大的參與度、保留率和 ARPU 潛力。其次，隨著捆綁包將有機需求轉化為受眾感興趣的多個領域，我們預計將維持有吸引力的訂戶獲取成本。第三，我們預計與我們規模化的訂戶群的強有力的互動將推動我們額外的廣告附屬公司和授權收入流的成長。

We see these improving digital unit economics reflected in our financial results. Steady revenue growth and disciplined cost management have been driving continued AOP growth and margin expansion. Today, I'll discuss the quarter's key results, followed by our financial outlook for next quarter. Please note that all comparisons are to the prior year period unless otherwise specified. I'll start with a discussion of our subscription business.

我們看到這些不斷改善的數位單位經濟效益反映在我們的財務表現中。穩定的收入成長和嚴格的成本管理一直推動著 AOP 的持續成長和利潤率的擴大。今天，我將討論本季的主要業績，然後是我們對下個季度的財務展望。請注意，除非另有說明，所有比較均與去年同期進行。我將從討論我們的訂閱業務開始。

We added approximately 210,000 net new digital subscribers in the quarter, largely driven by strong performance in bundle and multiproduct subscriber additions. We added more than 3x as many bundle and multiproduct subscribers as we did in the same period last year. They now make up 38% of our total base, well along the path to exceeding 50% over the next few years.

本季我們淨新增約 21 萬名數位訂戶，主要是由於捆綁和多產品訂戶增加的強勁表現。我們增加的捆綁包和多產品訂閱者數量是去年同期的三倍多。他們現在占我們總基數的 38%，並且預計在未來幾年內將超過 50%。

Total digital-only ARPU grew steadily for another quarter to $9.28, up approximately 5% year-over-year and 1.4% quarter-over-quarter. Our continued sequential digital-only ARPU growth was driven by our success with graduating subscribers from promotional to higher prices, as well as the ongoing impact of our digital price increase on tenured non-bundled subscribers.

純數位 ARPU 總額在另一個季度穩定成長，達到 9.28 美元，年增約 5%，季增 1.4%。我們的純數位 ARPU 持續連續成長是由於我們成功地將訂閱者從促銷轉向更高的價格，以及我們的數位價格上漲對長期非捆綁訂閱者的持續影響。

We continue to be pleased with the results of the digital price increase rollout. And as Meredith noted, we transitioned to greater number of bundled subscribers from promotional to higher prices in Q3 than in prior quarters. While it is still relatively early, we are encouraged by the signals that bundle subscribers retain and monetize better than news-only subscribers as we step them up to higher prices.

我們仍然對數位提價的結果感到滿意。正如梅雷迪思指出的那樣，與前幾季相比，我們在第三季度從促銷轉向了更高的價格，從而獲得了更多的捆綁訂閱用戶。雖然現在還相對較早，但當我們提高價格時，捆綁訂閱用戶比純新聞訂閱用戶的保留率和盈利能力更好，這一信號令我們感到鼓舞。

As a result of the growth in both subscribers and digital-only ARPU in the third quarter, digital-only subscription revenues grew 16% to $282 million. Total subscription revenues grew approximately 9% to $419 million.

由於第三季訂閱用戶和純數位 ARPU 的成長，純數位訂閱收入成長了 16%，達到 2.82 億美元。訂閱總收入成長約 9%，達到 4.19 億美元。

Now turning to advertising. Total advertising revenues for the quarter were $117 million, coming in above expectations, with growth of 6% compared to our guidance of approximately flat. The outperformance was primarily driven by better-than-expected results from print advertising, which was up approximately 5%.

現在轉向廣告。本季廣告總收入為 1.17 億美元，超出預期，與我們大致持平的指引相比增長了 6%。表現出色的主要原因是印刷廣告業績優於預期，成長了約 5%。

Digital advertising came in towards the high end of our expectations in the quarter, growing approximately 7% to $75 million. This growth was driven by strong performance at both The New York Times Group and in the -- and at The Athletic for our core premium display and first-party data product offerings. The strength in these products helped more than offset softer results from podcast advertising, where we continue to see headwinds.

本季數位廣告收入接近我們預期的上限，成長約 7%，達到 7,500 萬美元。這一成長是由《紐約時報集團》和 The Athletic 的核心優質顯示器和第一方數據產品的強勁表現所推動的。這些產品的優勢不僅抵消了播客廣告的疲軟業績，我們在播客廣告方面仍然面臨阻力。

Other revenue grew in line with our guidance, increasing approximately 15% to $63 million. Wirecutter affiliate revenue and licensing continued to be strong contributors to year-over-year growth.

其他收入成長與我們的指導一致，成長約 15%，達到 6,300 萬美元。 Wirecutter 附屬公司收入和授權繼續為同比成長做出重要貢獻。

Moving now to costs and the progress we are making in driving AOP growth and free cash flow growth. We continued to demonstrate cost discipline this quarter, along with the strategic approach to areas of ongoing investments. Adjusted operating cost growth was in line with our expectations, increasing approximately 6%. Growth was driven in large part by our continued investments in journalism and product development. The strategic investments we've made in these areas have enabled us to improve our operating leverage by broadening our addressable market and fueling organic subscriber growth.

現在轉向成本以及我們在推動 AOP 成長和自由現金流成長方面取得的進展。本季我們持續展現成本紀律以及針對持續投資領域的策略方法。調整後的營運成本成長符合我們的預期，成長約 6%。成長在很大程度上得益於我們對新聞和產品開發的持續投資。我們在這些領域進行的策略性投資使我們能夠透過擴大我們的目標市場和推動有機用戶成長來提高我們的營運槓桿。

Sales and marketing costs were down approximately 3%, reflecting our ability to continue leveraging our journalism and product investments to acquire the majority of our new subscribers organically and improve the effectiveness of our overall sales and marketing spend. We saw improved marketing efficiencies in the quarter, in part due to a simplification of our media programs, which have consolidated much of our media spend to focus on the bundle.

銷售和行銷成本下降了約 3%，反映出我們有能力繼續利用我們的新聞和產品投資來有機地獲取大多數新訂閱者並提高整體銷售和行銷支出的有效性。本季我們的行銷效率有所提高，部分原因是我們的媒體計劃得到簡化，該計劃整合了我們的大部分媒體支出，以專注於捆綁銷售。

The increase in our general and administrative cost growth was due principally to higher compensation and severance expenses and certain onetime items. It's worth noting that we don't believe Q3's higher level of growth to be representative of future G&A growth.

我們的一般和管理成本成長主要是由於補償和遣散費以及某些一次性項目的增加。值得注意的是，我們認為第三季的較高成長水準並不能代表未來的一般管理費用成長。

As a result of strong revenue growth and disciplined cost management, adjusted operating profit grew 30% to $90 million. Adjusted operating profit margin was 15% in the quarter, an increase of approximately 240 basis points compared to the prior year. We view these results as a testament to our strategy's ability to drive AOP growth and margin expansion over time.

由於強勁的收入成長和嚴格的成本管理，調整後的營業利潤成長了 30%，達到 9,000 萬美元。本季調整後營業利益率為 15%，比上年增加約 240 個基點。我們認為這些結果證明了我們的策略有能力隨著時間的推移推動 AOP 成長和利潤率擴張。

This also translated into strong earnings growth as adjusted diluted earnings per share increased $0.13 to $0.37. EPS growth was also aided by higher interest income on our cash and marketable securities and a favorable effective tax rate. As of the third quarter end, the company has generated approximately $208 million of free cash flow year-to-date, demonstrating the strong cash generation of our model.

這也轉化為強勁的獲利成長，調整後的稀釋每股收益增加 0.13 美元至 0.37 美元。每股盈餘的成長也得益於現金和有價證券利息收入的增加以及有利的有效稅率。截至第三季末，該公司年初至今已產生約 2.08 億美元的自由現金流，證明了我們模型的強勁現金產生能力。

Turning to capital allocation. I want to take this opportunity in my first full quarter as CFO to restate our capital allocation priorities, which remain unchanged: first, to organically reinvest into the growth of our essential subscription strategy in ways that drive value creation and extend our long-term competitive advantage. Second, to return excess capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. And third, to maintain the flexibility to consider targeted strategic acquisitions that can accelerate our strategy should we see a high return opportunity.

轉向資本配置。我想利用擔任財務長的第一個完整季度的機會，重申我們的資本配置優先事項，這些優先事項保持不變：首先，以推動價值創造和擴展我們長期競爭力的方式，對我們基本訂閱策略的成長進行有機再投資。優勢。其次，以股利和股票回購的形式將多餘資本返還給股東。第三，保持彈性，考慮有針對性的策略收購，如果我們看到高回報機會，這些收購可以加速我們的策略。

We continue to have a balanced approach to capital returns with a target of returning at least 50% of free cash flow over the midterm. Year-to-date, as of November 3, we have returned approximately $114 million through a combination of $69 million in dividends and $45 million in stock repurchases.

我們繼續對資本回報採取平衡的方法，目標是在中期回報至少 50% 的自由現金流。年初至今，截至 11 月 3 日，我們已透過 6,900 萬美元的股息和 4,500 萬美元的股票回購返還了約 1.14 億美元。

I'll now look ahead to Q4 for the consolidated New York Times Company. Before I do, I would like to note that we have updated our presentation of total operating costs to include special items, which are items that are outside the ordinary course of our operations. As a result of this change, we will no longer provide quarterly guidance for total operating costs due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting these special items. We will continue to provide guidance for adjusted operating costs.

我現在將展望合併後的紐約時報公司的第四季。在此之前，我想指出的是，我們已經更新了總營運成本的表述，以包括特殊項目，這些項目是我們正常營運過程之外的項目。由於這項變化，我們將不再提供總營運成本的季度指導，因為預測這些特殊項目存在固有的困難。我們將繼續提供調整後的營運成本指引。

And as a reminder, due to a change in the company's fiscal calendar, the fourth quarter of 2022 included an additional 6 days of revenue and costs compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. In order to provide clarity around our outlook, we have provided fourth quarter 2023 revenue guidance on both a reported basis and an adjusted basis, which excludes the additional 6 days of revenue from 2022 in the year-over-year comparison. The full details of our fourth quarter guidance can be found on Page 9 of our earnings release.

提醒一下，由於公司財務日曆的變化，與 2023 年第四季相比，2022 年第四季的收入和成本增加了 6 天。為了明確我們的前景，我們提供了第四季度的收入和成本。基於報告基礎和調整基礎的2023 年季度收入指引，其中不包括2022 年同比增加的6 天收入。我們第四季度指導的完整詳細資訊可以在我們的收益發布的第 9 頁上找到。

On an adjusted basis, total subscription revenues are expected to increase 8% to 11% compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. And digital-only subscription revenues are expected to increase approximately 13% to 16%. Overall advertising revenues are expected to range from a decrease of low single digits to an increase of mid-single digits, while digital advertising revenues are expected to increase low- to high-single digits. These ranges reflect the ongoing low visibility we are seeing in the advertising market.

調整後的總訂閱收入預計將比 2022 年第四季成長 8% 至 11%。純數位訂閱收入預計將成長約 13% 至 16%。整體廣告收入預計將從低個位數下降到中個位數成長，而數位廣告收入預計將在低個位數到高個位數成長。這些範圍反映了我們在廣告市場中看到的持續的低可見度。

Other revenues are expected to increase low- to mid-single digits.

其他收入預計將成長低至中個位數。

On a reported basis, adjusted operating costs are expected to be in the range of flat to up 2%. With more than half of the year behind us, we believe we are on track for the modest margin expansion we've been aiming to deliver beginning this year.

根據報告，調整後的營運成本預計將持平至上漲 2%。今年已經過去一半多了，我們相信，我們正朝著今年年初實現的目標實現適度的利潤率擴張。

And with that, I'll send it back to Meredith to wrap up.

這樣，我會將其發送回梅雷迪思以進行總結。

Thanks, Will. In closing, this quarter's results are further proof that our essential subscription strategy is working. Our unrivaled journalism and market-leading lifestyle products give people many reasons to seek us out at different moments. We believe integrating these products into a single bundled offering increases the value we deliver to customers who deepen their engagement and willingness to pay more over time. And our multiproduct multi-revenue stream model makes us more resilient in the face of an uncertain economy and world and an ever-changing information ecosystem. All of which means that we're well positioned to continue creating value for our readers, for our colleagues and for our shareholders.

謝謝，威爾。最後，本季的業績進一步證明我們的基本訂閱策略正在發揮作用。我們無與倫比的新聞報導和市場領先的生活方式產品讓人們有很多理由在不同時刻尋找我們。我們相信，將這些產品整合到單一捆綁產品中可以增加我們為客戶提供的價值，隨著時間的推移，客戶的參與度會加深，並且願意支付更多費用。我們的多產品多收入流模式使我們在面對不確定的經濟和世界以及不斷變化的資訊生態系統時更具彈性。所有這些都意味著我們有能力繼續為我們的讀者、我們的同事和我們的股東創造價值。

And with that, we would be happy to take your questions.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Thomas Yeh from Morgan Stanley.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Thomas Yeh。

I noticed during the quarter that you reduced the promotional rate on the bundle to $1 a week, which is or was equivalent to what the news-only product was offered at before. Can you talk a little bit about just the role of news-only over time? Are you still seeing growth starts coming in through the news-only product at this point? Or hence, how you changed the selling strategy and the marketing of the bundle really shifted that?

我注意到，在本季度，你們將捆綁包的促銷費率降低到了每週 1 美元，這與之前提供的純新聞產品的價格相同或相當。您能談談純新聞隨著時間的推移所扮演的角色嗎？此時您是否仍看到純新聞產品開始帶來成長？或者因此，您如何改變銷售策略以及捆綁行銷確實改變了這一點？

Yes. Thomas, I'm happy to take that. Yes, as we talked about, we've been testing the $1-a-week promotion, which has been so successful on news, for the bundle. And we had as you know, our strategy is to maximize subscriber lifetime value. We like what we see there. And so that is the -- essentially bringing in the bundle starts on that.

是的。湯瑪斯，我很高興接受。是的，正如我們所說，我們一直在測試捆綁包每週 1 美元的促銷活動，該促銷活動在新聞上非常成功。如您所知，我們的策略是最大化訂戶終身價值。我們喜歡在那裡看到的一切。這就是——本質上引入捆綁包就是從這個開始的。

If we take a step back, I think I mapped out in the last call, the 3 things we want to look at are growth in total subscribers, that mix shift to the bundle because what Meredith discussed, retaining better, engaging more and paying more. And then lastly, sort of the overall growth in total digital-only ARPU. Those are the 3 signposts that we look to. And in this quarter, you can see that very much playing out the way our strategy is designed. So we like to see that bundle growth, and we are essentially no longer marketing news-only. We're marketing the bundle for that reason. And so I think you can expect to see the trends generally that you're seeing this quarter play out as our strategy is working as designed.

如果我們退一步，我想我在上次電話會議中列出了，我們想要關注的三件事是訂閱者總數的增長，混合轉向捆綁，因為梅雷迪思討論過，更好地保留、更多參與和支付更多。最後，純數位 ARPU 總額的整體成長。這些是我們關注的 3 個路標。在本季度，您可以看到我們的策略設計方式在很大程度上發揮了作用。因此，我們希望看到捆綁銷售的成長，而且我們基本上不再只行銷新聞。出於這個原因，我們正在行銷該捆綁包。因此，我認為隨著我們的策略按設計發揮作用，您可以預期看到本季的整體趨勢。

I'm going to add 1 beat to that, Thomas, which is that we have a long and good track record of being able to bring people into any of our products now at a promotional price, get them to engage, get them to engage more over time. And then step them up either in 1 or 2 or a few goes to higher prices. And you have to imagine in the background, we're just getting better and better at the execution of that, and we like the results we're seeing. And that's what gives us confidence to sort of be working at all ends of the demand curve here.

湯瑪斯，我要補充一點，那就是我們擁有長期良好的記錄，能夠以促銷價吸引人們使用我們的任何產品，讓他們參與，讓他們參與隨著時間的推移會更多。然後將其提高 1 或 2 級，或提高一些價格。你必須在後台想像，我們在執行方面做得越來越好，我們喜歡我們所看到的結果。這讓我們有信心在需求曲線的兩端開展工作。

Okay. Makes sense. And then, Meredith, you mentioned the news aggregator pressures, and you've been talking about that for probably the better part of the year now. Are we lapping some of that as we exit this year from a year-over-year perspective? Or do you see further changes developing? Maybe just an update on that would be helpful.

好的。說得通。然後，梅雷迪思，你提到了新聞聚合器的壓力，而且你可能今年大部分時間都在談論這個問題。從同比的角度來看，當我們今年退出時，我們是否會接受其中的一些？或者您看到進一步的變化正在發生？也許只是更新一下會有幫助。

Yes. That's a really good question, and it's probably been a year, might even be 5 quarters now that we've been talking about it. I would say our strategy is designed for us to be resilient to sort of however the ecosystem continues to evolve. The point here is to build products in news and beyond news that are so good, so necessary to people that however -- whatever the ways are to get to those products, people are going to find them. So that's the first thing to say.

是的。這是一個非常好的問題，我們可能已經一年了，甚至可能已經五個季度了。我想說，我們的策略旨在讓我們能夠適應生態系統不斷發展的情況。這裡的重點是在新聞和新聞之外打造對人們來說非常好的、非常必要的產品——無論透過什麼方式獲得這些產品，人們都會找到它們。這是首先要說的。

That's what we're trying to do here. And I think our sort of continued strong results against a clearly stated strategy all year long with those headwinds is evidence of that.

這就是我們在這裡試圖做的事情。我認為，我們全年在這些不利因素的影響下，在明確制定的策略下取得了持續強勁的業績，就證明了這一點。

I think it's fair to assume that, who knows, but that the information ecosystem is going to keep evolving for any number of reasons and that so much of what we're doing is intended to be able to harness demand no matter what happens.

我認為可以公平地假設，誰知道呢，但是資訊生態系統將由於多種原因而不斷發展，而且我們正在做的很多事情都是為了無論發生什麼情況都能夠駕馭需求。

Our next question comes from David Karnovsky from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的大衛卡諾夫斯基。

Will, just maybe following up on your comments before on ARPU. We saw the sequential decline from bundle and multiproduct ARPU in the quarter, which makes sense given the net adds. But as you start to graduate early cohorts to interim or full prices, should we start to see some stabilization in this number eventually?

威爾，也許只是跟進您之前對 ARPU 的評論。我們看到本季捆綁包和多產品 ARPU 連續下降，考慮到淨增加量，這是有道理的。但是，當您開始將早期群體畢業到臨時價格或全價時，我們是否應該開始看到這個數字最終有所穩定？

And then just on the outlook for Q4, it's a bit wider range than normal on revenue. I think that's due to advertising. Meredith, can you speak to what you're seeing in the ad market? And how does the kind of elevated news cycle we're in play into that?

然後就第四季的前景而言，收入範圍比正常情況要寬一些。我認為這是由於廣告。梅雷迪思，您能談談您在廣告市場中看到的情況嗎？我們所處的新聞週期如何影響這一點？

Yes. Thanks, David. On advertising, I'll sort of give you the whole picture. Yes, it is a wide range. And as Will said in his prepared remarks, that sort of reflects just how much uncertainty there is. On the positive side, we feel very confident that our approach and our fundamental strategy in advertising is working. The core of the digital business, which is premium ad canvases and first-party data, both across The New York Times Group, the news and our other products, and in The Athletic, is really working. That's been really resilient even in a tough macro economy, and we expect that to continue to work, and there's a lot of demand for that.

是的。謝謝，大衛。關於廣告，我會給你全面的了解。是的，範圍很廣。正如威爾在準備好的演講中所說，這反映出存在多少不確定性。從積極的一面來看，我們非常有信心我們的廣告方法和基本策略正在發揮作用。數位業務的核心是優質廣告畫布和第一方數據，無論是在《紐約時報集團》、新聞和我們的其他產品中，還是在 The Athletic 中，都在真正發揮作用。即使在嚴峻的宏觀經濟情勢下，這種做法也確實具有彈性，我們預期這種做法將繼續發揮作用，而且對此有很大的需求。

Also, on the positive side, Athletic advertising is going really well. The idea here is bringing new advertisers and get different campaigns from existing advertisers. We work across a lot of categories. So we've got real optimism there. And we're more assertively extending the product -- the ad products to places like Games, which I think I talked about in the last quarter, and you'll see that kind of as we move across the portfolio.

此外，從正面的一面來看，體育廣告進展得非常順利。這裡的想法是引入新的廣告商並從現有廣告商那裡獲得不同的廣告活動。我們的工作涉及很多類別。所以我們對此非常樂觀。我們更加堅定地將產品——廣告產品擴展到遊戲等領域，我想我在上個季度談到這一點，當我們在整個產品組合中移動時，你會看到這種情況。

So I'd say that all feels good. At the same time, I think a lot of the kind of wide guide is being driven by -- there's a second war now being fought and that can create uncertainty in the broader market and, therefore, the ad market. And I would say macro economically, it remains a pretty uncertain time.

所以我想說，一切都感覺很好。同時，我認為許多此類廣泛指南的推動因素是——現在正在進行第二場戰爭，這可能會為更廣泛的市場甚至廣告市場帶來不確定性。我想說的是，從宏觀經濟角度來看，這仍然是一個相當不確定的時期。

And then there are 2 places where we've said we just expect some amount of continued headwinds. One is print. Print has been -- print is really hard to call. In my decade here, I would say it's always -- print advertising is always really hard to call. Did better than we expected in the last quarter. We'll see in the current quarter. And then podcasts, which really news podcasts, remain sort of under pressure for a number of reasons.

還有兩個地方我們說過我們預期會出現一些持續的阻力。一是印刷。印刷已經——印刷真的很難稱呼。在我在這裡的十年裡，我想說的是，平面廣告總是很難說。上個季度的表現好於我們的預期。我們將在本季度看到結果。然後，播客，真正的新聞播客，由於多種原因仍然面臨壓力。

So with -- for all those reasons, I'd say broadly, we feel very confident in our underlying ad approach and product set, and we think it's really working for marketers. But there's just a lot going on at a macro level that makes it hard to know.

因此，出於所有這些原因，我想說，我們對我們的基本廣告方法和產品集非常有信心，我們認為它確實對行銷人員有用。但宏觀層面上發生的很多事情讓人很難了解。

And then on the trajectory of bundle and multiproduct ARPU. As you note, that is our strategy working as designed as we bring on large cohorts of bundled subscribers at the promotional prices. Those of you who have been following, saw that in news only as well. And certainly, we expect over time for that to stabilize and eventually return back to growth.

然後是捆綁和多產品 ARPU 的軌跡。正如您所注意到的，這就是我們的策略，因為我們以促銷價吸引了大量捆綁訂戶。那些一直關注的人也只是在新聞中看到了這一點。當然，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這種情況會穩定下來並最終恢復成長。

We're not sort of calling that to some extent. This is a period of sort of a rapid shift to the bundle and a lot of effort going into that -- those bundled cohorts.

在某種程度上，我們並沒有這麼稱呼它。這是一個快速轉向捆綁的時期，並且為此付出了大量的努力——那些捆綁的群體。

We have a lot of leverage at our disposal on ARPU, which the 2 big ones you've been seeing are the digital price increases, as well as over time we're going to see more impact from the transitioning of these cohorts to higher prices. So that will take more impact beginning next year. And as we've said, the overall expectation is for that total digital-only ARPU to continue to modestly expand, increase over time.

我們對 ARPU 有很大的影響力，你所看到的兩大因素是數位價格的上漲，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這些群體向更高價格的轉變帶來的更大影響。因此，從明年開始，這將產生更大的影響。正如我們所說，整體預期純數位 ARPU 總額將繼續小幅擴張，並隨著時間的推移而增加。

The next question comes from Ashton Welles from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Ashton Welles。

I know it's early to talk about 2024 at this point. But can you talk a bit about how you're thinking about puts and takes for expense growth next year is the low to mid-single-digit rate we've seen this year the right run rate to think about for the business going forward?

我知道現在談論 2024 年還為時過早。但是，您能否談談您如何看待明年費用增長的看漲期權和看跌期權，這是我們今年看到的低至中個位數的增長率，是考慮業務未來發展的正確運行率？

Ashton, I'm happy to take that. I mean we don't guide on 2024, but I think it's fair to say that we feel good about our cost performance, both our ability to continue to invest strategically in the key areas of our journalism and product development, while also being relentlessly focused on efficiency and making sure we're reallocating our resources to areas of highest impact.

阿什頓，我很高興接受。我的意思是，我們不會以2024 年為目標，但我認為可以公平地說，我們對我們的成本效益感到滿意，我們有能力繼續在新聞和產品開發的關鍵領域進行策略性投資，同時也堅持不懈地專注效率並確保我們將資源重新分配到影響最大的領域。

We feel like we're definitely on track to be doing what we telegraphed at the beginning of the year as to sort of see that cost growth moderate. And that's our general expectation as we head into next year -- into Q4 and into next year.

我們覺得我們肯定會按照年初的計劃行事，以實現成本增長適度。這是我們進入明年、第四季和明年的整體預期。

The next question comes from Doug Arthur from Huber Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Doug Arthur。

Meredith, you called out the strong advertising results at The Athletic, which was really quite a surprising number. I guess the flip side is digital advertising backing out The Athletic was kind of a push year-over-year. Was that a bit of a disappointment? Or is that the podcasting reference you made? And then I've got a follow-up.

梅雷迪思，你提到了 The Athletic 的強勁廣告效果，這確實是一個令人驚訝的數字。我想另一方面是數位廣告對 The Athletic 的支持是逐年推動的。是不是有點失望？或者這是您引用的播客內容？然後我有一個後續行動。

It's certainly more the second than the first in your -- in the way you're answering it. I'll say, again, remember, we sort of did better than our own guide there. And the thing that we pay closest attention to, even setting aside The Athletic, Doug, is how is core display on The New York Times and within the group doing, which is premium ad canvases plus first-party data. And I would say that remains resilient in the face of a really complicated market.

從你回答問題的方式來看，這肯定是第二個而不是第一個。我要再說一遍，記住，我們比我們自己的導遊做得更好。即使拋開The Athletic，Doug，我們最關注的事情是《紐約時報》和集團內部的核心展示如何，即優質廣告畫布加上第一方數據。我想說，面對一個非常複雜的市場，它仍然具有彈性。

So most of what -- where you're seeing the pressure is in podcasting, and then just broadly less money moving around in the market in the biggest categories that we play in.

所以，你所看到的壓力主要來自於播客，而在我們所從事的最大類別的市場上流動的資金則大幅減少。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, I mean it looked like the investment and expense growth at The Athletic was pretty robust in the quarter. Is that just investment in the marketing? Is it content? Are you hiring people? What's happening there?

好的。作為後續行動，我的意思是，本季 The Athletic 的投資和費用成長看起來相當強勁。這只是行銷方面的投資嗎？有內容嗎？你們在招人嗎？那裡發生了什麼事？

Let me give a kind of broad answer. Will, you should provide any more detail you think is appropriate. I would say, on The Athletic, things are going, broadly, kind of according to plan and as we suggested they would at the point of acquisition. And where you see us investing, it is in the 2 things that we think are going to drive the most value on The Athletic, which is ensuring that the coverage is widely appealing and widely seen. So that's a place of investment, and we've talked about that on prior calls.

讓我給出一個廣泛的答案。威爾，您應該提供您認為合適的更多詳細資訊。我想說的是，在 The Athletic 上，事情總體上正在按計劃進行，正如我們在收購時所建議的那樣。你看到我們投資的地方，我們認為這將為 The Athletic 帶來最大的價值，那就是確保報導具有廣泛的吸引力和廣泛的關注。所以這是一個投資的地方，我們在之前的電話會議中已經討論過這一點。

I think the biggest opportunity at The Athletic is to get many more people to know it exists and to read it and to engage with it. That's one, and that's the single biggest area of expense. And so anywhere you'd see sort of increased investment, it's going to play out there.

我認為 The Athletic 最大的機會是讓更多的人知道它的存在、閱讀它並參與其中。這就是其中之一，也是最大的單一支出領域。因此，只要你看到投資增加，它就會在那裡發揮作用。

And then in the digital product and making -- creating more opportunity technologically in the product experience to engage people. So I think that's where you're seeing it. But it's all -- and a little bit, I'll just add 1 more beat. The ad business is going very, very well. And there are some number of things you're doing there, less so, but some number of things you see us doing there to -- for a gas on that fire.

然後在數位產品和製造方面——在產品體驗中透過技術創造更多機會來吸引人們。所以我認為這就是你所看到的。但僅此而已——還有一點點，我只是再增加 1 個節拍。廣告業務進展得非常非常好。你們在那裡做了很多事情，雖然少一些，但你們看到我們在那裡做的一些事情——為了生火而生的氣體。

I might just add 1 more thing, which is that the success of the bundle and the growth of the bundle is in part also a sign of the success of The Athletic as part of the bundle. And one of the things we are doing is allocating the expenses from that growth back to The Athletic as well. So as The Athletic grows, you're going to see expense growth at The Athletic.

我可能還要補充一件事，即捆綁包的成功和捆綁包的增長在一定程度上也是 The Athletic 作為捆綁包的一部分取得成功的標誌。我們正在做的事情之一就是將成長的費用也分配給The Athletic。因此，隨著 The Athletic 的發展，您將看到 The Athletic 的費用增長。

The next question comes from Vasily Karasyov from Cannonball Research.

下一個問題來自 Cannonball Research 的 Vasily Karasyov。

Just wanted to follow up with a bigger picture question on, Meredith, your comments about ARPU growth and your confidence in how that will continue. So you did provide longer-term goal of 15 million subscribers, and I'm sure that internally you also have estimates of what ARPU would look like. Now of course, I don't expect you to share that estimate with us. But maybe you can help us think how to -- where is the right sort of directions along which to think what that ARPU could be? Can it be teens -- in teens, can it be in double digits? And what sort of puts and takes we should be thinking about when estimating what kind of ARPU the 15 million subscribers New York Times would have?

只是想跟進一個更大的問題，梅雷迪思，您對 ARPU 增長的評論以及您對這種增長將如何持續的信心。因此，您確實提供了 1500 萬訂戶的長期目標，我確信您在內部也對 ARPU 的情況有所估計。當然，現在我不希望您與我們分享這個估計。但也許你可以幫助我們思考如何——思考 ARPU 的正確方向在哪裡？可以是十幾歲嗎──在十幾歲的時候，可以是兩位數嗎？在估算《紐約時報》1,500 萬訂戶的 ARPU 值時，我們應該考慮什麼樣的投入和支出？

Yes. Great. Let me just make a couple of broad comments, and Will, I suspect you'll have a more satisfyingly detailed answer on ARPU. On the path to 15 million, you should expect us to really be aiming for more than half over the next few years of the total subscriber base to be on the bundle, and that has economic benefit in myriad ways to the whole business, not just subs, but you're asking about subs.

是的。偉大的。讓我發表一些廣泛的評論，威爾，我想您會得到關於 ARPU 的更令人滿意的詳細答案。在達到 1500 萬的道路上，您應該期望我們的目標是在未來幾年內將超過一半的總訂戶基數納入捆綁服務，這會以多種方式為整個業務帶來經濟效益，而不僅僅是潛艇，但你問的是潛水艇。

So continuing the push to more bundled penetration both for starts and also for existing stand-alone subscribers to news or any of our other products. So that's going to play a big role in the ARPU trajectory.

因此，繼續推動更多的捆綁滲透，無論是對於新創公司還是現有的新聞或任何其他產品的獨立訂閱者。因此，這將在 ARPU 軌跡中發揮重要作用。

And then I'll just make sort of 1 more broad comment, which is you have a number of, Will, I think, referenced this earlier, you have a number of things going on around price rises, that so far, I'd say, we are executing well on: one is bring people in at promotional prices, step them up over time, either in a year or across a multiyear period as they engage more, as they realize more value. And as I said earlier, our ability to execute against that, our tech is getting better and better, the AI we use to power that is getting better and better. So that's one.

然後我會發表更廣泛的評論，即您有很多，我想，之前提到過這一點，您在價格上漲方面發生了很多事情，到目前為止，我認為比如說，我們在以下方面執行得很好：一是以促銷價格吸引人們，隨著時間的推移，無論是在一年內還是在多年的時間內，隨著他們參與得更多，他們意識到更多的價值，他們會逐步提高他們的水平。正如我之前所說，我們的執行能力、我們的技術越來越好、我們用來支援的人工智慧也越來越好。這就是其中之一。

Two, as we get more people to understand The Times isn't just the product they came for, and that presents most in news, but we've got Cooking subscribers and Games subscribers and Athletic subscribers, getting people to take the whole gives them more of a reason to pay us -- engage more and then pay us more over time. We really like what we see there so far.

第二，隨著我們讓更多的人了解《泰晤士報》不僅僅是他們想要的產品，而且在新聞中出現最多，而且我們還有烹飪訂閱者、遊戲訂閱者和體育訂閱者，讓人們接受整體為他們帶來了好處更多的是付錢給我們的理由——更多地參與，然後隨著時間的推移付給我們更多的錢。我們真的很喜歡到目前為止所看到的。

And then three, and this has played a big role this year and I think will continue to over time. We now have a good history of -- at the point of tenure in news and executed in Games for the first time, and we talked about doing it in Cooking as well and are beginning to do that, at a certain point of tenure for certain subscribers, based on engagement level, we can do a price increase and exercise our pricing power.

然後是三個，這在今年發揮了重要作用，我認為隨著時間的推移，這種作用將會繼續下去。我們現在擁有良好的歷史——在新聞領域的任期內首次在遊戲中執行，我們也討論過在烹飪領域這樣做，並且正在開始這樣做，在特定的任期內訂閱者，根據參與程度，我們可以提高價格並行使我們的定價權。

So all of those things, successful execution on all of those things would point toward how we expect ARPU to go up over time as we're growing volume and bearing down path to 15 million. Will, what did I miss there?

因此，所有這些事情，所有這些事情的成功執行將表明我們預計 ARPU 將如何隨著時間的推移而上升，因為我們的銷量不斷增長，並有望達到 1500 萬。威爾，我在那裡錯過了什麼？

I think what all I'd say, obviously, is over the midterm, the way we are thinking about it is still the way we articulated it, which is essentially modest year-over-year ARPU growth is essentially our expectation with -- they won't be totally linear and there are lots of puts and takes and levers, as Meredith described, but that's generally still how we are thinking about it ourselves.

我認為我想說的是，顯然，是在中期，我們思考它的方式仍然是我們表達它的方式，這基本上是溫和的逐年 ARPU 增長基本上是我們的預期 - 他們正如梅雷迪思所描述的，不會是完全線性的，並且有很多看跌期權和槓桿，但這通常仍然是我們自己思考的方式。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Anthony DiClemente for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回安東尼·迪克萊門特 (Anthony DiClemente) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you all for joining us this morning, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。