New York Times Co (NYT) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the New York Times Company's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    大家早上好,歡迎參加紐約時報公司 2021 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

    今天的演講結束後,將有機會提問。 (操作員說明)另請注意,今天的活動正在錄製中。

  • And at this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Harlan Toplitzky, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    在這個時候,我想把電話會議轉給投資者關係副總裁 Harlan Toplitzky。請繼續。

  • Harlan Toplitzky - Executive Director of IR and Financial Planning & Analysis

    Harlan Toplitzky - Executive Director of IR and Financial Planning & Analysis

  • Thank you, and welcome to The New York Times Company's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today, we have Meredith Kopit Levien, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Roland Caputo, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝,歡迎參加《紐約時報》公司 2021 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。在今天的電話會議上,我們有總裁兼首席執行官 Meredith Kopit Levien;以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Roland Caputo。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management will make forward-looking statements during the course of this call. These statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may change over time. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties that are described in the company's 2020 10-K and subsequent SEC filings. Given the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on our business in 2020, we will also present certain comparisons of our operating results in 2021 to 2019, which we believe, in many cases, provides useful context for our current year results.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,管理層將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於我們當前的預期和假設,這些預期和假設可能會隨著時間而改變。由於公司 2020 年 10-K 和隨後提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的許多風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。鑑於 COVID-19 大流行對我們 2020 年的業務產生的影響,我們還將對 2021 年至 2019 年的經營業績進行某些比較,我們認為,在許多情況下,這些比較為我們今年的業績提供了有用的背景。

  • In addition, our presentation will include non-GAAP financial measures, and we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release, which is available on our website at investors.nytco.com. And finally, please note that a copy of the prepared remarks from this morning's call will be posted to our investor website shortly after we conclude.

    此外,我們的演示文稿將包括非 GAAP 財務指標,我們在收益新聞稿中提供了與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對賬,該新聞稿可在我們的網站 Investors.nytco.com 上找到。最後,請注意,今天上午電話會議準備好的講話副本將在我們結束後不久發佈到我們的投資者網站上。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Meredith Kopit Levien.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給 Meredith Kopit Levien。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Harlan, and good morning, everyone. 2021 was a terrific year for The New York Times Company. It was our second best year ever for net subscription additions despite changes in the new cycle following 2020's historic period, and it was also a strong year in advertising. With these results, we saw the attractiveness of our digital-first, subscription-first approach show through. The company achieved $2 billion in annual revenue for the first time since 2012, with revenue growing 16% compared with last year. Adjusted operating profit grew 34% and was our highest in many years, and we saw a 200 basis point improvement over 2020 margins, boosted by a recovering ad business.

    謝謝,哈蘭,大家早上好。 2021 年對《紐約時報》公司來說是豐收的一年。儘管在 2020 年的歷史時期之後新周期發生了變化,但這是我們有史以來淨訂閱增加量第二好的一年,這也是廣告業務強勁的一年。通過這些結果,我們看到了數字優先、訂閱優先方法的吸引力。該公司自 2012 年以來首次實現 20 億美元的年收入,收入與去年相比增長了 16%。調整後的營業利潤增長了 34%,是我們多年來的最高水平,在廣告業務復甦的推動下,我們的利潤率比 2020 年提高了 200 個基點。

  • Looking ahead, our priority is to continue this momentum by further penetrating our growing total addressable market and leveraging our unique platform and the deliberate investments we've made in our journalism, technology and adjacent products to build a larger and more profitable New York Times Company. Before I go into more detail about the future, let me put these plans in context of the incredible growth and successful execution of our strategy over the last few years, particularly in 2021.

    展望未來,我們的首要任務是通過進一步滲透我們不斷增長的總目標市場並利用我們獨特的平台以及我們在新聞、技術和相關產品方面進行的有意投資來建立更大、更有利可圖的紐約時報公司,從而繼續保持這一勢頭.在我詳細介紹未來之前,讓我將這些計劃放在過去幾年(尤其是 2021 年)令人難以置信的增長和我們戰略成功執行的背景下。

  • In early 2019, we established a goal of reaching 10 million subscriptions by 2025. With the acquisition of The Athletic, which closed yesterday, and the $8.8 million subscriptions we achieved on our own, we have now surpassed this target. Even without The Athletic, we believe we would have reached 10 million subscriptions far sooner than we originally anticipated.

    2019 年初,我們制定了到 2025 年達到 1000 萬訂閱量的目標。通過收購昨天結束的 The Athletic 以及我們自己實現的 880 萬美元訂閱量,我們現在已經超過了這個目標。即使沒有 The Athletic,我們相信我們的訂閱量也會比我們最初預期的要早得多。

  • Our 1.273 million total net additions in 2021 were 23% higher than 2019, the year before the pandemic. Our profit growth in 2021 meant another year of strong cash flow that added to an already robust balance sheet, which has improved meaningfully over the past decade. This strong balance sheet and our confidence in the continued cash-generative nature of our business model enabled our all-cash acquisition of The Athletic, a strategic move intended to further accelerate our growth.

    我們在 2021 年的淨新增總人數為 127.3 萬,比大流行前一年的 2019 年高出 23%。我們在 2021 年的利潤增長意味著又一年強勁的現金流增加了本已強勁的資產負債表,該資產負債表在過去十年中得到了顯著改善。強勁的資產負債表以及我們對業務模式持續產生現金性質的信心使我們能夠以全現金收購 The Athletic,這是一項旨在進一步加速我們增長的戰略舉措。

  • This morning, we also announced that our Board of Directors has authorized a $150 million share repurchase and a 29% increase in the quarterly dividend. As is always the case, the unmatched impact and breadth of our journalism is at the heart of our success. That was clear once again in 2021 from our reporting on the violent aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, to our consequential investigation into America's systematic mistakes in the use of air strikes, which prompted reform at the highest levels of the U.S. military, to our expansive work on the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, including our case-tracking database, which just a week ago, crossed 1 billion page views.

    今天上午,我們還宣布,我們的董事會已授權進行 1.5 億美元的股票回購,並將季度股息增加 29%。與往常一樣,我們新聞業無與倫比的影響力和廣度是我們成功的核心。 2021 年,從我們對美國總統大選的暴力後果的報導,到我們對美國在使用空襲方面的系統性錯誤(促使美軍最高層進行改革)的相應調查,再到我們廣泛的致力於持續的 COVID-19 大流行,包括我們的病例跟踪數據庫,就在一周前,該數據庫的頁面瀏覽量已超過 10 億。

  • Turning to the fourth quarter. We drove continued growth and progress against our strategy with 375,000 net digital-only additions, Q4 was our second best reporter subscription performance ever. Our subscription results in news reflected progress in key areas we've talked about all year, including bolstering engagement for our live news format and our growing suite of newsletters. We continue to evolve the customer journey, including improving how we use machine learning to determine the ideal moment to ask people to pay and better delineation of the experience between anonymous, registered and subscribed user state. That work has meant greater success converting users earlier in the customer journey.

    轉入第四節。我們以 375,000 的純數字淨增加量推動了我們的戰略的持續增長和進步,第四季度是我們有史以來第二好的記者訂閱表現。我們在新聞中的訂閱結果反映了我們全年討論的關鍵領域的進展,包括加強我們的實時新聞格式和不斷增長的新聞通訊套件的參與度。我們繼續改進客戶旅程,包括改進我們如何使用機器學習來確定要求人們付款的理想時刻,以及更好地描述匿名、註冊和訂閱用戶狀態之間的體驗。這項工作意味著在客戶旅程的早期轉化用戶取得更大成功。

  • It was a record quarter for net additions to our non-news products. Cooking and Games each crossed 1 million subscriptions just before year-end, the result of strong audience demand and product improvements, such as the addition of Spelling Bee to the Games app. It was an especially strong quarter in Cooking.

    這是我們非新聞產品淨增加量的創紀錄季度。烹飪和遊戲在年底前的訂閱量分別超過了 100 萬,這是強勁的受眾需求和產品改進的結果,例如在 Games 應用程序中添加了 Spelling Bee。這是烹飪領域特別強勁的季度。

  • We also had a record fourth quarter in advertising. It was our largest ever quarter for digital advertising, beating the record set in 2018 by 8%. This growth capped a year in which we were able to make the most of a recovering market with a suite of high-performing proprietary ad products grounded in first-party data, a strong audio offering and the ability to work with marketers on large multiplatform partnerships.

    我們第四季度的廣告業務也創歷史新高。這是我們有史以來最大的數字廣告季度,比 2018 年創下的紀錄高出 8%。這一增長結束了這一年,在這一年中,我們能夠充分利用複甦的市場,提供一套基於第一方數據的高性能專有廣告產品、強大的音頻產品以及與大型多平台合作夥伴關係的營銷人員的能力.

  • This strong performance in 2021 was a result of our consistent strategy and focus. Since we launched our current strategy in 2015, we've been investing steadily into a once-in-a-generation opportunity to pioneer the development of a large and growing news and information market at a time when habits are up for grabs. Over that time, we've seen our audience reach new heights with 100 million or more visiting each week during peak news periods and more than that number becoming registered users.

    2021 年的強勁表現是我們一貫的戰略和重點的結果。自從我們在 2015 年推出當前戰略以來,我們一直在穩步投資於千載難逢的機會,以在人們習慣被抓住的時候開拓一個龐大且不斷增長的新聞和信息市場的發展。在那段時間裡,我們看到我們的受眾達到了新的高度,在新聞高峰期每周訪問量達到 1 億或更多,並且超過這個數字成為註冊用戶。

  • At the same time, we've increased digital subscription sixfold. With this foundation, we believe we're in a strong position to drive greater subscriber growth. To penetrate the market more deeply, we now aim to be the essential subscription for every English-speaking person seeking to understand and engage with the world. That starts with building on our lead in news by continuing to provide the highest-quality expert journalism on the broadest range of subjects.

    與此同時,我們將數字訂閱量增加了六倍。有了這個基礎,我們相信我們在推動用戶增長方面處於有利地位。為了更深入地滲透市場,我們現在的目標是成為每個尋求了解和參與世界的說英語的人的基本訂閱。首先是通過繼續提供最廣泛主題的最高質量專家新聞來鞏固我們在新聞領域的領先地位。

  • Dominant coverage of the biggest news stories has proven to be the largest single driver of our growth. At peak moments, we've reached as many as 1 in 2 adults in the U.S. and millions more internationally. News drives tens of millions of people a week into our subscription funnel, and 85% of our digital subscriber base pays for our news product today, either on its own or together with other products. We believe news will always be core to our growth story and the company's most important economic driver, and we remain confident that strong demand for news will continue.

    事實證明,對最大新聞報導的主要報導是我們增長的最大單一驅動力。在高峰時期,我們已經覆蓋了美國多達二分之一的成年人和數百萬的國際成年人。新聞每週吸引數以千萬計的人進入我們的訂閱渠道,今天我們 85% 的數字訂閱者為我們的新聞產品付費,無論是單獨付費還是與其他產品一起付費。我們相信新聞將永遠是我們增長故事的核心,也是公司最重要的經濟驅動力,我們仍然相信對新聞的強勁需求將持續下去。

  • Our ambition is to leverage the power of our brand and that news audience to also become a category leader in other areas that can occupy a big place in people's lives like games, cooking, shopping advice and sports. That's the reason we bought the wildly popular game, Wordle, earlier this week. It joins our portfolio of original, engaging puzzle games that delight and challenge solvers, and it gives them reasons to come to The Times every day. All of this means we are now pursuing an enormous opportunity through a broader portfolio of products to meet more needs for more people.

    我們的目標是利用我們的品牌和新聞受眾的力量,在遊戲、烹飪、購物建議和體育等其他領域成為可以在人們生活中佔據重要地位的領域的領導者。這就是我們本週早些時候購買廣受歡迎的遊戲 Wordle 的原因。它加入了我們原創的、引人入勝的益智遊戲組合,讓解決者感到高興和挑戰,它讓他們有理由每天來時報。所有這些意味著我們現在正在通過更廣泛的產品組合來尋求巨大的機會,以滿足更多人的更多需求。

  • Our latest audience research suggests that there are now at least 135 million adults worldwide who are paying or willing to pay for one or more subscriptions to English language news, sports coverage, puzzles, recipes or expert shopping advice. That compares to the 100 million we've previously estimated for English language news.

    我們最新的受眾研究表明,目前全球至少有 1.35 億成年人正在或願意為一項或多項英語新聞、體育報導、謎題、食譜或專家購物建議的訂閱付費。相比之下,我們之前估計的英語新聞為 1 億。

  • Sports, in particular, is a big category in its own right, which is what makes our acquisition of The Athletic so compelling. Our research indicates that about 25 million adults in the U.S. alone are either paying or willing to pay for sports information. The Athletic has also been demonstrating strong international potential, particularly in soccer. Today, our overlap with The Athletic subscriber base is modest, and we believe there is ample runway for growth. We're increasingly optimistic about The Athletic as we've solidified our integration plan. The exhaustive diligence and analysis we did before coming to an agreement supports our belief that this is the right time, the right category and the right model to add to our platform.

    特別是體育本身就是一個很大的類別,這就是我們對 The Athletic 的收購如此引人注目的原因。我們的研究表明,僅在美國就有大約 2500 萬成年人正在或願意為體育信息付費。競技也一直表現出強大的國際潛力,尤其是在足球方面。今天,我們與 The Athletic 用戶群的重疊程度不大,我們相信有充足的增長空間。隨著我們鞏固了我們的整合計劃,我們對 The Athletic 越來越樂觀。我們在達成協議之前所做的詳盡盡職調查和分析支持了我們的信念,即現在是添加到我們平台的正確時間、正確的類別和正確的模型。

  • As we said in January, the athletics business isn't profitable today, but as we apply many of the same insights that drive our subscription business to grow sixfold since 2015, including widening its audience, building a deliberate customer journey and driving repeat engagement, we believe that it will be a driver of The Times achieving a larger scale in subscribers and profits over time. We also believe there's a lucrative advertising business to be built and we have the capabilities and track record to build it.

    正如我們在 1 月份所說,體育業務今天沒有盈利,但是當我們應用許多相同的見解時,這些見解推動我們的訂閱業務自 2015 年以來增長了六倍,包括擴大受眾、建立深思熟慮的客戶旅程和推動重複參與,我們相信,隨著時間的推移,它將成為時代實現更大規模的訂閱者和利潤的驅動力。我們還相信有一個利潤豐厚的廣告業務需要建立,我們有能力和記錄來建立它。

  • Everything I've described, continuing to lead news, building our strength in other categories, adding sports is about unlocking our potential to become the essential subscription. In service of that vision, I'll note a key change in how we're measuring our progress and talking about our strategy. We're moving towards an emphasis on individual subscriber growth rather than growth of total subscriptions.

    我所描述的一切,繼續引領新聞,在其他類別中建立我們的實力,增加體育運動是為了釋放我們成為基本訂閱的潛力。為了實現這一願景,我將指出我們如何衡量我們的進步和談論我們的戰略的一個關鍵變化。我們正在轉向強調個人用戶的增長,而不是總訂閱量的增長。

  • A central part of this strategy will be offering a single high-value New York Times subscription or bundle of interconnected products. We believe this will create an even more compelling value proposition for the enormous audience of potential consumers of our non-news products, and this diversity of value will give people multiple reasons to engage with us every day, whatever the news cycle. To attract the widest audience, we'll continue to offer stand-alone subscriptions to each of our products. But by focusing on the bundle, we're providing the most value to our customers and, in turn, building the best opportunity to monetize the entirety of our platform.

    該戰略的核心部分將是提供單一的高價值紐約時報訂閱或互連產品捆綁。我們相信,這將為我們非新聞產品的大量潛在消費者創造一個更具吸引力的價值主張,而這種價值的多樣性將為人們提供每天與我們互動的多種理由,無論新聞周期如何。為了吸引最廣泛的受眾,我們將繼續為我們的每個產品提供獨立訂閱。但通過專注於捆綁,我們為客戶提供了最大的價值,反過來,我們也創造了將整個平台貨幣化的最佳機會。

  • While we're in the early days of a true multiproduct bundle playing a leading role in our strategy, the data so far are encouraging. Over 30% of our subscribers now pay to access more than one of our subscription products. Subscribers to our existing bundle have lower monthly churn rates than news-only subscribers and significantly higher ARPU. And with our research showing that most of our addressable market is interested in news and one or more other products, we believe moving toward a bundled offering will be an increasingly large profit driver.

    雖然我們正處於真正的多產品捆綁在我們的戰略中發揮主導作用的早期階段,但迄今為止的數據令人鼓舞。現在,超過 30% 的訂閱者付費訪問我們的一種以上訂閱產品。與僅新聞訂閱者相比,我們現有捆綁包的訂閱者每月流失率更低,ARPU 明顯更高。我們的研究表明,我們的大部分潛在市場都對新聞和一種或多種其他產品感興趣,我們相信轉向捆綁產品將成為越來越大的利潤驅動力。

  • Putting it all together, we still believe we're in the early days of an extraordinary opportunity to win a larger share of a still-growing market. Given our success to date and the platform we've built, we are now, for the third time in 6 years, setting a new, more ambitious target. This one is based not on total subscriptions, but on the number of unique subscribers.

    綜上所述,我們仍然相信我們正處於一個非凡機會的初期,可以在一個仍在增長的市場中贏得更大份額。鑑於我們迄今取得的成功和我們建立的平台,我們現在在 6 年內第三次設定一個新的、更雄心勃勃的目標。這個不是基於訂閱總數,而是基於唯一訂閱者的數量。

  • We ended 2021 with 7.6 million total subscribers to The Times. Beginning in 2022, we're now aiming for a new goal of at least 15 million total subscribers by year-end 2027, a number that would be larger if expressed in individual subscriptions and a number that represents roughly doubling the number of total subscribers The Times had at the end of last year. Roland will have more to say about our shift from subscriptions to subscribers in a few minutes. This new goal is meant as yet another mile marker, not an end state. And based upon our analysis of the opportunities ahead of us in the portfolio, products and platform we've built, we believe the journey to this new subscriber target will drive meaningful revenue and profit growth.

    到 2021 年底,《泰晤士報》的訂閱用戶總數達到 760 萬。從 2022 年開始,我們現在的目標是到 2027 年底總訂閱人數至少達到 1500 萬的新目標,如果以個人訂閱數來表示,這個數字會更大,並且這個數字大約代表總訂閱人數的兩倍。時代已經在去年底了。 Roland 將在幾分鐘後就我們從訂閱到訂閱的轉變有更多的發言權。這個新目標是另一個里程碑,而不是最終狀態。根據我們對我們所構建的產品組合、產品和平台的機遇的分析,我們相信實現這一新訂戶目標的旅程將推動有意義的收入和利潤增長。

  • In order to accomplish this, we'll continue to invest into the opportunity, and we won't sacrifice long-term growth in the name of short-term profits. But let me share a few top line thoughts about how we're thinking about costs in this next phase of our strategy. Given our investments in journalism, our digital product experience and tech continue to yield strong organic subscriber conversion, we expect that we'll be able to improve the overall efficiency of our marketing spend for our core product set. We intend to continue to invest in our digital product development and our underlying tech, but in doing so, we believe we will see further benefit from its capabilities as they improve.

    為了做到這一點,我們將繼續投資於機會,我們不會以短期利潤的名義犧牲長期增長。但是,讓我分享一些關於我們在下一階段戰略中如何考慮成本的重要想法。鑑於我們對新聞業的投資,我們的數字產品體驗和技術繼續產生強大的有機訂閱者轉換,我們預計我們將能夠提高我們核心產品集營銷支出的整體效率。我們打算繼續投資於我們的數字產品開發和我們的基礎技術,但這樣做,我們相信隨著它們的改進,我們將進一步受益於其能力。

  • As an example, we plan to apply some of the machine learning practices we've developed for our news product to Cooking, to identify the right moment to prompt the user to subscribe. We expect our people costs will rise in order for us to continue to attract and retain top talent. That reflects the state of the talent market generally. And we also expect that we'll continue to add people in journalism, other content areas and tech. However, the unique nature of our product means that every dollar we invest here goes a long way.

    例如,我們計劃將我們為新聞產品開發的一些機器學習實踐應用到烹飪中,以確定提示用戶訂閱的正確時機。我們預計我們的人力成本將會上升,以便我們繼續吸引和留住頂尖人才。這反映了人才市場的總體狀況。我們還期望我們將繼續增加新聞、其他內容領域和技術領域的人員。然而,我們產品的獨特性意味著我們在這裡投資的每一美元都有很長的路要走。

  • Turning to how we expect this to play out in 2022. We expect to grow adjusted operating profit dollars in our core business in 2022 before the previously disclosed impact from The Athletic, but we do not expect that growth to entirely offset the dilutive impact of The Athletic in our first year of ownership. While we understand there is a short-term impact on profitability, we're confident in the long-term opportunity that The Athletic represents.

    談到我們預計這將如何在 2022 年發揮作用。我們預計在先前披露的 The Athletic 影響之前,我們的核心業務的調整後營業利潤將在 2022 年增長,但我們預計這種增長不會完全抵消 The Athletic 的稀釋影響運動在我們擁有的第一年。雖然我們知道對盈利能力有短期影響,但我們對 The Athletic 所代表的長期機會充滿信心。

  • Given our progress in 2021, we are at a natural time to provide a strategic update to our investors. So we plan on hosting an Investor Day in the middle of this year, where we look forward to sharing more about our outlook for the company and the opportunities ahead of us.

    鑑於我們在 2021 年取得的進展,我們自然而然地可以向我們的投資者提供戰略更新。因此,我們計劃在今年年中舉辦投資者日,期待更多地分享我們對公司的展望以及我們面前的機遇。

  • Before I hand it over to Roland, I want to say just how proud I am of our team and for all they accomplished last year journalistically and commercially. And I want to express how optimistic I am about this next phase in our growth journey. I believe we are still in the early days of building our business. We have a leading but low penetration of a large market that we think will continue to grow for secular reasons, and we have a business model that can scale and deliver meaningful revenue and profit growth as it does. Our 15 million subscriber target represents what we're aiming for in this next phase of our strategy, but is by no means an endpoint. And I believe our journey to achieving it will yield an even more exciting, resilient and valuable New York Times company.

    在我把它交給羅蘭之前,我想說我為我們的團隊以及他們去年在新聞和商業方面所取得的成就感到多麼自豪。我想表達我對我們成長歷程的下一階段的樂觀態度。我相信我們仍處於建立業務的早期階段。我們在一個我們認為由於長期原因將繼續增長的大市場擁有領先但滲透率低的市場,並且我們擁有一個可以擴展並帶來有意義的收入和利潤增長的商業模式。我們的 1500 萬訂戶目標代表了我們下一階段戰略的目標,但絕不是終點。我相信我們實現這一目標的旅程將產生一個更加令人興奮、更有彈性和更有價值的紐約時報公司。

  • Over you, Roland.

    在你身上,羅蘭。

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Meredith, and good morning. Fundamental strength in the underlying business exemplified by strong digital subscription unit growth and healthy growth in both subscription and advertising revenues resulted in strong financial performance in the fourth quarter. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.43 in the quarter, $0.03 higher than the prior year. We reported adjusted operating profit of approximately $109 million, higher than the same period in 2020 by $12 million and higher than 2019 by $13 million, an important comparison point given the impact that the pandemic had on our 2020 results.

    謝謝你,梅雷迪思,早上好。基礎業務的基本實力,例如強勁的數字訂閱單位增長以及訂閱和廣告收入的健康增長,導致第四季度的財務表現強勁。本季度調整後的稀釋後每股收益為 0.43 美元,比去年同期高 0.03 美元。我們報告調整後的營業利潤約為 1.09 億美元,比 2020 年同期高出 1200 萬美元,比 2019 年高出 1300 萬美元,考慮到大流行對我們 2020 年業績的影響,這是一個重要的比較點。

  • We added 171,000 net new subscriptions to our core digital news product and 204,000 net new stand-alone subscriptions to our other digital products for a total of 375,000 net new digital-only subscriptions. The international share of total new subscriptions remained at 18% as of the end of the quarter. Total subscription revenues increased more than 11% in the quarter with digital-only subscription revenue growing 23% to approximately $205 million. Digital-only subscription revenue grew as a result of the large number of new subscriptions we have added in the past year and continued strength in retention of the dollar-per-week promotional subscriptions who have graduated to higher prices. It's worth noting that digital subscription revenue in the quarter was slightly lower as a result of the impact from a onetime adjustment made to reflect the change in the way we charge for subscriptions in a grace period.

    我們為我們的核心數字新聞產品增加了 171,000 次淨新訂閱,為我們的其他數字產品增加了 204,000 次淨新獨立訂閱,總計淨新增 375,000 次純數字訂閱。截至本季度末,新訂閱總數中的國際份額保持在 18%。本季度總訂閱收入增長超過 11%,僅數字訂閱收入增長 23%,達到約 2.05 億美元。由於我們在過去一年中增加了大量新訂閱,並且以每周美元為單位的促銷訂閱價格持續上漲,因此純數字訂閱收入有所增長。值得注意的是,由於我們為反映寬限期內訂閱收費方式的變化而進行的一次性調整的影響,本季度的數字訂閱收入略有下降。

  • Digital news subscription ARPU for the quarter increased 5.5 percentage points compared to the prior year and was slightly lower compared to the prior quarter. This improvement in the year-over-year rate was primarily due to subscriptions graduating from their introductory price to either full price or an intermediate step-up price in the quarter, while the sequential pressure is largely a result of higher subscription additions at introductory promotional pricing. ARPU related solely to domestic new subscriptions increased nearly 7 percentage points versus the prior year and was slightly lower versus the prior quarter.

    本季度數字新聞訂閱 ARPU 比上年增長 5.5 個百分點,比上一季度略有下降。同比增長率的這種改善主要是由於訂閱量從其介紹價逐步升級為全價或本季度的中間升價,而連續壓力主要是由於介紹性促銷增加訂閱量增加所致價錢。僅與國內新訂閱相關的 ARPU 較上年增長近 7 個百分點,較上一季度略有下降。

  • As we predicted what happened on our third quarter earnings call, churn rates increased in the fourth quarter within a range we had been expecting as a result of 3 factors: a onetime effect of a regulatory change in an international market; a tightening of the rules governing the overall payments environment; and the impact of optimizations we've made to intentionally convert users earlier in the customer journey, whereby we are accepting slightly higher churn rates in exchange for higher conversion rates, starts and cumulative lifetime value.

    正如我們在第三季度財報電話會議上預測的那樣,第四季度的客戶流失率在我們預期的範圍內上升,這是由於三個因素造成的:國際市場監管變化的一次性影響;收緊管理整體支付環境的規則;以及我們為在客戶旅程早期有意轉換用戶而進行的優化的影響,我們接受稍高的流失率以換取更高的轉換率、開始和累積生命週期價值。

  • Now I'd like to take a moment to expand upon our plan to begin disclosing the number of subscribers to our products, which Meredith mentioned a few moments ago. As we begin to more intentionally market a bundled subscription, the number of individual subscriptions becomes a less useful measure of our scale. For instance, an individual who separately subscribes to our news and Cooking products is currently counted as 2 subscriptions, while an individual subscribing to all of our products through a bundled offering, which includes news, Cooking and Games, among other items, is only counted as 1 new subscription.

    現在我想花一點時間來擴展我們的計劃,開始披露我們產品的訂戶數量,梅雷迪思剛才提到了這一點。隨著我們開始更有意識地推銷捆綁訂閱,個人訂閱的數量成為衡量我們規模的一個不太有用的衡量標準。例如,單獨訂閱我們的新聞和烹飪產品的個人目前計為 2 次訂閱,而通過捆綁產品(包括新聞、烹飪和遊戲等)訂閱我們所有產品的個人僅計為作為 1 個新訂閱。

  • To put this into the context of our current results, we reported 1.273 million total digital net subscription additions in 2021, bringing the end-of-period digital subscription number to 8 million. These subscription numbers equate to net digital subscriber addition of 936,000 and end-of-period digital subscribers of more than 6.8 million. Said differently, as of the end of Q4 2021, we had 6.8 million digital subscribers paying for more than 8 million digital subscriptions or an average of just under 1.2 subscriptions per subscriber. In addition, we have approximately 800,000 home delivery subscribers for a grand total of more than 7.6 million total subscribers.

    將其納入我們當前結果的背景下,我們報告了 2021 年總數字淨訂閱增加 127.3 萬,使期末數字訂閱數量達到 800 萬。這些訂閱數量相當於 936,000 的淨數字訂戶增加和超過 680 萬的期末數字訂戶。換句話說,截至 2021 年第四季度末,我們有 680 萬數字訂閱者為超過 800 萬次數字訂閱付費,即平均每位訂閱者的訂閱量略低於 1.2 個。此外,我們擁有大約 800,000 名送貨上門訂戶,總訂戶總數超過 760 萬。

  • This would mean that the 15 million subscriber target we've set for year-end 2027 would be closer to 18 million subscriptions under our historical disclosure, assuming the current 1.2 to 1 subscription per subscriber relationship. As a result of this change to subscribers, beginning with our Q1 2022 reporting, we will supplement our quarterly reporting with the number of unique subscribers and unique digital-only subscribers as well as a number of other metrics, including average revenue per subscriber.

    這意味著根據我們的歷史披露,我們為 2027 年底設定的 1500 萬訂戶目標將接近 1800 萬訂戶,假設當前每個訂戶的訂閱比例為 1.2 比 1。由於訂閱者的這一變化,從我們的 2022 年第一季度報告開始,我們將用唯一訂閱者和唯一數字訂閱者的數量以及其他一些指標來補充我們的季度報告,包括每個訂閱者的平均收入。

  • We expect to continue to report on the numbers of subscriptions as we currently do for at least a full year, but with our first quarter earnings, plan to discontinue the breakout of digital subscription revenue between news and other since we believe it provides little insight as bundled subscriptions crossing these categories become more prevalent.

    我們預計將繼續報告訂閱數量,就像我們目前所做的那樣至少一整年,但根據我們第一季度的收益,計劃停止新聞和其他之間數字訂閱收入的突破,因為我們認為它提供的洞察力很少跨越這些類別的捆綁訂閱變得更加普遍。

  • I'll now return to my commentary about our fourth quarter results. Print subscription revenues declined approximately 2% as overall volume declines in both single copy and home delivery more than offset the benefits from the first quarter home delivery price increase. Total daily circulation declined approximately 9% in the quarter compared with prior year, while Sunday circulation declined 7.6%. Compared with 2019, print subscription revenues declined approximately 5% as single copy and international bulk sale copies declined, while revenue from domestic home delivery subscriptions grew 1.1% over this 2-year period.

    我現在將回到我對第四季度業績的評論。印刷訂閱收入下降了約 2%,因為單份和送貨上門的總銷量下降超過了第一季度送貨上門價格上漲帶來的好處。與去年同期相比,本季度每日總發行量下降了約 9%,而周日發行量下降了 7.6%。與 2019 年相比,印刷訂閱收入下降了約 5%,原因是單份和國際批量銷售量下降,而國內送貨訂閱收入在這 2 年期間增長了 1.1%。

  • Total advertising revenues increased approximately 27% in the quarter, with digital advertising growing more than 23%, largely as a result of our proprietary first-party targeted advertising products and expanded audio product portfolio. Compared with 2019, digital advertising grew 20.5% as a result of higher direct sold advertising, including traditional display and audio. Meanwhile, print advertising was higher by more than 33% compared with 2020, primarily driven by growth in the luxury and entertainment categories. However, print advertising remains below 2019 levels by 17%. Taken together, total advertising revenue exceeded 2019 by 3%.

    本季度總廣告收入增長約 27%,其中數字廣告增長超過 23%,這主要歸功於我們專有的第一方定向廣告產品和擴大的音頻產品組合。與 2019 年相比,數字廣告增長了 20.5%,這得益於更高的直銷廣告,包括傳統展示和音頻。與此同時,與 2020 年相比,平面廣告增長了 33% 以上,這主要是受奢侈品和娛樂類別增長的推動。然而,平面廣告仍低於 2019 年的水平 17%。兩者合計,總廣告收入超過 2019 年 3%。

  • Other revenues increased approximately 22% compared with the prior year to approximately $66 million, primarily as a result of revenue from live events, which were more severely impacted by the pandemic in the fourth quarter of 2020 as well as higher commercial printing and television series revenue.

    其他收入同比增長約 22%,達到約 6600 萬美元,這主要是由於現場活動的收入(受 2020 年第四季度大流行的影響更為嚴重)以及商業印刷和電視連續劇收入增加.

  • Adjusted operating costs were higher in the quarter by nearly 18% as compared with both 2020 and 2019. Cost of revenue increased 12% as a result of growth in the number of employees who work in the newsroom and on our Games, Cooking and Audio products as well as higher advertiser servicing costs, subscriber servicing costs, costs in connection with the production of Audio content and print production and distribution costs, largely as a result of growth in commercial printing. Sales and marketing costs increased 50%, driven primarily by higher media expenses. When compared to 2019, sales and marketing costs increased nearly 37%, while media expenses were more than 58% higher.

    與 2020 年和 2019 年相比,本季度調整後的運營成本增加了近 18%。由於在新聞編輯室和我們的遊戲、烹飪和音頻產品工作的員工人數增加,收入成本增加了 12%以及更高的廣告客戶服務成本、訂戶服務成本、與音頻內容製作相關的成本以及印刷製作和發行成本,這主要是由於商業印刷的增長。銷售和營銷成本增加了 50%,主要是由於媒體費用增加。與 2019 年相比,銷售和營銷成本增加了近 37%,而媒體費用則增加了 58% 以上。

  • We had 2 brand campaigns in market in the quarter, magnifying the year-over-year increases, including a campaign to highlight the breadth of our overall coverage and a large campaign in support of Cooking, designed to increase awareness of the product during the holiday cooking season.

    本季度我們在市場上進行了 2 次品牌宣傳活動,擴大了同比增長,其中包括突出我們整體覆蓋範圍的活動和支持烹飪的大型活動,旨在提高節日期間對產品的認識烹飪季節。

  • Product development costs increased by more than 12%, largely as a result of growth in the number of digital product development employees in connection with strategic initiatives related to growing digital subscriptions. General and administrative costs increased by 10%, largely due to a higher incentive compensation accrual, growth in the number of employees and higher consulting costs.

    產品開發成本增加了 12% 以上,這主要是由於數字產品開發員工數量的增長與與數字訂閱增長相關的戰略舉措有關。一般和行政成本增加了 10%,主要是由於更高的激勵薪酬應計、員工人數的增長和更高的諮詢成本。

  • Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was approximately 24%. As we've said previously, we expect our rate to be approximately 27% on every dollar of marginal income we record with the possibility of some variability around the quarterly effective rate. Our qualified pension plans ended the year 105% funded with an approximate $74 million surplus. This is an improvement from the 102% funded status we reported at year-end 2020.

    我們第四季度的有效稅率約為 24%。正如我們之前所說,我們預計我們記錄的每一美元邊際收入的利率約為 27%,並且季度有效利率可能存在一些變化。我們的合格養老金計劃在年底完成了 105% 的融資,盈餘約為 7400 萬美元。這比我們在 2020 年底報告的 102% 的資助狀態有所改善。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. Our cash and marketable securities balance ended the quarter at $1.074 billion, an increase of approximately $32 million compared with the third quarter of 2021. We announced this morning that we completed the acquisition of The Athletic for an all-cash purchase price of $550 million, subject to customary closing adjustments using cash on hand. The company remains debt-free with a $250 million revolving line of credit available.

    轉移到資產負債表。截至本季度末,我們的現金和有價證券餘額為 10.74 億美元,比 2021 年第三季度增加約 3200 萬美元。我們今天上午宣布,我們以 5.5 億美元的全現金收購價格完成了對 The Athletic 的收購,使用手頭現金進行慣常的結算調整。該公司仍然沒有債務,提供 2.5 億美元的循環信貸額度。

  • As you know, over the last several years, we have been investing into the drivers of digital subscription growth both organically and off the balance sheet. Over this time frame, we balance these uses of cash with a modest level of shareholder return by increasing the dividend each of the last 3 years. With our recent acquisition of The Athletic, we have also invested $550 million to further propel our digital subscription growth strategy.

    如您所知,在過去幾年中,我們一直在有機地和資產負債表外投資於數字訂閱增長的驅動因素。在此時間範圍內,我們通過增加過去 3 年每年的股息來平衡這些現金使用與適度水平的股東回報。隨著我們最近收購 The Athletic,我們還投資了 5.5 億美元來進一步推動我們的數字訂閱增長戰略。

  • Today, given the continued strength of our balance sheet and the confidence we have in the cash-generative nature of our business model, the Board of Directors has approved both a $0.02 increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.09 per quarter and a $150 million share repurchase authorization, a first since 2015. Share buybacks under this authorization are expected to be used primarily, but not exclusively, to offset dilution associated with stock-based compensation, which we expect will increase over the next several years.

    今天,鑑於我們資產負債表的持續強勁以及我們對業務模式的現金生成性質的信心,董事會已批准將我們的季度股息增加 0.02 美元至每季度 0.09 美元和 1.5 億美元的股票回購授權,這是自 2015 年以來的第一次。預計根據該授權進行的股票回購將主要但不限於用於抵消與基於股票的薪酬相關的稀釋,我們預計未來幾年這種稀釋將增加。

  • Let me conclude with our outlook for the first quarter of 2022 on the core business, which does not reflect our acquisition of The Athletic. The effect of The Athletic acquisition on our consolidated guidance has been included in the Outlook section of the earnings release that we published this morning. For the core New York Times, excluding the impact of The Athletic, total subscription revenues are expected to increase approximately 9% to 11% compared with the first quarter of 2021, with digital-only subscription revenue expected to increase approximately 18% to 21%. Overall advertising revenues are expected to increase 16% to 20% compared with the first quarter of 2021, with digital advertising revenues expected to increase approximately 18% to 22%. Other revenues are expected to increase approximately 15% to 20%.

    讓我總結一下我們對核心業務的 2022 年第一季度的展望,這並不反映我們對 The Athletic 的收購。 The Athletic 收購對我們綜合指導的影響已包含在我們今天上午發布的收益報告的展望部分。對於核心紐約時報,不包括 The Athletic 的影響,總訂閱收入預計將比 2021 年第一季度增長約 9% 至 11%,僅數字訂閱收入預計將增長約 18% 至 21% .與 2021 年第一季度相比,整體廣告收入預計將增長 16% 至 20%,其中數字廣告收入預計將增長約 18% 至 22%。其他收入預計將增長約 15% 至 20%。

  • Both operating costs and adjusted operating costs are expected to increase approximately 13% to 15% compared with the first quarter of 2021 as we continue investment into the drivers of digital subscription growth and compare against the quarter of relatively low spending growth last year. However, we expect cost growth on our core business to slow considerably, beginning in the second half of 2022. And on The Athletic, as we said on the deal call in early January, we continue to forecast a slight improvement in operating losses relative to its approximately $55 million loss in 2021 as the company plans to make additional investments that will mostly offset revenue growth.

    與 2021 年第一季度相比,運營成本和調整後的運營成本預計將增加約 13% 至 15%,因為我們將繼續投資於數字訂閱增長的驅動因素,並與去年支出增長相對較低的季度相比。但是,我們預計從 2022 年下半年開始,我們核心業務的成本增長將大幅放緩。正如我們在 1 月初的交易電話會議上所說,在 The Athletic 上,我們繼續預測相對於2021 年虧損約 5500 萬美元,因為該公司計劃進行額外投資,以抵消收入增長。

  • And with that, we'd be happy to open it up for questions.

    有了這個,我們很樂意提出問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Thomas Yeh from Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Thomas Yeh。

  • Thomas L. Yeh - Research Associate

    Thomas L. Yeh - Research Associate

  • Just a quick question on your shifting focus towards unique subscribers rather than individual subscriptions. Is there any change in your approach at the consumer level for those subscribers who are signing up for separate services currently? I mean you mentioned keeping stand-alone services in place. But do you anticipate any near-term ARPU headwinds if subscribers of multiple services shift towards the premium bundle?

    只是一個關於您將重點轉移到唯一訂閱者而不是個人訂閱的快速問題。對於目前正在註冊單獨服務的訂閱者,您在消費者層面的方法是否有任何變化?我的意思是你提到保持獨立服務到位。但是,如果多項服務的訂戶轉向高級捆綁服務,您是否預計近期 ARPU 會受到不利影響?

  • And then, Roland, last quarter, you spoke about expectations for core margins to remain similar in '22 versus '21 pre Athletic. Just given some of the advertising strength that we're seeing flowing into this year, should we anticipate some benefits there? Or do you see opportunities to reinvest that upside?

    然後,羅蘭,上個季度,你談到了對 22 年和 21 年運動前核心利潤率保持相似的預期。考慮到我們今年看到的一些廣告實力,我們是否應該預期會有一些好處?或者您是否看到了再投資這種上行空間的機會?

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Thomas, I think Roland wants to answer both of those. Go for it.

    托馬斯,我認為羅蘭想回答這兩個問題。去吧。

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Thomas. So let's talk about the ARPU first. The driving motivation behind moving to a more intentional marketing of the bundled offering, is that -- Meredith talked a little bit about there's higher retention, but there's also higher ARPU, right? So folks are willing to pay a higher price to be able to experience more of the breadth of the whole New York Times offering. So actually, over time, we expect this to be a tailwind to ARPU as more folks are subscribing to a higher-price bundle. We don't expect to offer the bundle to anyone, say, today who's got a multiproduct subscription. We wouldn't offer this bundle for less than they're already paying. So I think it's more of a tailwind on ARPU than a headwind.

    是的。謝謝,托馬斯。所以我們先來談談ARPU。轉向對捆綁產品進行更有意識的營銷背後的驅動力是——梅雷迪思談到了更高的留存率,但也有更高的 ARPU,對吧?因此,人們願意支付更高的價格來體驗整個《紐約時報》提供的更多內容。所以實際上,隨著時間的推移,隨著越來越多的人訂閱更高價格的捆綁包,我們預計這將成為 ARPU 的順風車。我們不希望將捆綁包提供給任何人,例如,今天訂閱了多產品的人。我們不會以低於他們已經支付的價格提供這個捆綁包。所以我認為這對 ARPU 來說更像是順風而不是逆風。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, and Roland, I'll just add that we're still experimenting with pricing, and you're going to see us do that for a while.

    是的,還有 Roland,我只想補充一點,我們仍在嘗試定價,你會看到我們這樣做一段時間。

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then you asked about -- I guess a little follow-up on the margin question. And you heard Meredith in her prepared remarks describe what we think the profit contour is going to be for 2022. And that is an increase in dollar profits this year ex The Athletic, probably not covering the full expected Athletic loss. But we will have growth in our absolute profits.

    然後你問了——我想是關於邊際問題的一些後續行動。你聽說梅雷迪思在她準備好的講話中描述了我們認為 2022 年的利潤曲線。這是今年前 The Athletic 美元利潤的增長,可能沒有涵蓋全部預期的 Athletic 損失。但我們的絕對利潤將會增長。

  • Thomas L. Yeh - Research Associate

    Thomas L. Yeh - Research Associate

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then just maybe a last one for me on the advertising strength. Can you revisit the plans to drive the ad opportunity at The Athletic and maybe some of the timing and operational goals that you're hoping to get to for the rest of the year?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後對我來說可能是關於廣告實力的最後一個。您能否重新審視在 The Athletic 推動廣告機會的計劃,以及您希望在今年餘下時間實現的一些時間和運營目標?

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Thomas. I'm happy to take that one. I would say we expect the business at The Athletic, character-wise, to look very much like the business we have at the time, which is an ad business to get its differential value from being a subscription-first, meaning premium ad products, first-party data, the opportunity to work with a select group of marketers on multi-platform partnerships and an audio opportunity.

    當然,托馬斯。我很高興接受那個。我想說的是,我們希望 The Athletic 的業務,就性格而言,看起來非常像我們當時的業務,這是一家廣告業務,從訂閱優先獲得不同的價值,意味著優質的廣告產品,第一方數據、與特定營銷人員就多平台合作夥伴關係和音頻機會進行合作的機會。

  • So I think it's -- our expectation is, character-wise, it will be quite similar. This is a playbook that we really understand and we've been running now for some time at The Times quite well. And we're really excited to get started now that we're closed on applying that to The Athletic. And we think it can be done in a way that is subscription-first and consistent with our subscription ambitions.

    所以我認為它是——我們的期望是,就角色而言,它會非常相似。這是一本我們非常了解的劇本,而且我們已經在《紐約時報》運行了一段時間。我們真的很高興能夠開始,因為我們已經關閉了將其應用於 The Athletic。我們認為這可以通過訂閱優先且符合我們訂閱目標的方式來完成。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kannan Venkateshwar from Barclays Capital.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊資本的 Kannan Venkateshwar。

  • Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • So maybe just for -- just to put a finer point on some of the guidance. If we just take your first quarter guidance on The Athletic -- on numbers with and without The Athletic and annualize that, it seems to imply roughly an annual loss of about $80 million for The Athletic. Is that roughly in the ballpark? And is it fair to just extrapolate the guidance from the first quarter to the rest of the year? I don't know if there's some front-ended costs because of the integration there. So that's one.

    所以也許只是為了——只是為了對一些指導進行更詳細的說明。如果我們僅根據您對 The Athletic 的第一季度指導——關於有和沒有 The Athletic 的數字並將其按年計算,這似乎意味著 The Athletic 每年大約損失約 8000 萬美元。這大致在球場上嗎?僅將第一季度的指導推斷到今年剩餘時間是否公平?我不知道那裡的集成是否會產生一些前端成本。所以這是一個。

  • And then when you think about the ARPU in the quarter, it was sequentially lower. But I think -- I mean, earlier in the year, when you had talked about ARPU, I think there was an expectation that it would actually accelerate through the year as we reach Q4. So if you could just help us understand what really changed with respect to the cadence there? And I have one last follow-up on costs. Maybe we can do that later.

    然後,當您考慮本季度的 ARPU 時,它依次降低。但我認為 - 我的意思是,今年早些時候,當你談到 ARPU 時,我認為隨著我們到達第四季度,它實際上會在全年加速。所以,如果你能幫助我們了解那裡的節奏真正發生了什麼變化?我對成本進行了最後一次跟進。也許我們以後可以這樣做。

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. Great. Those are 2 really good questions. I'm glad you asked The Athletic question in terms of the run rate. So the first quarter expectations are not representative of the run rate. We still believe that -- and I think I did have that in my prepared remarks, that we believe that the dilutive effect of The Athletic will be a bit below the $55 million that they lost in 2021. So you would not want to extrapolate the first quarter. I don't know quite how you get to $80 million, but there are some there are some increases in upfront costs that will not run through the year. So again, I think I'll turn everyone back to the prepared remarks where it should be something less than the $55 million.

    好的。偉大的。這是 2 個非常好的問題。我很高興你就跑步率提出了 The Athletic 的問題。所以第一季度的預期並不代表運行率。我們仍然相信——而且我認為我在準備好的評論中確實有過這一點,我們相信 The Athletic 的稀釋效應將略低於他們在 2021 年損失的 5500 萬美元。所以你不會想推斷第一季度。我不太清楚你是如何達到 8000 萬美元的,但有些前期成本會增加一些,不會貫穿全年。再說一次,我想我會讓大家回到準備好的評論上,它應該少於 5500 萬美元。

  • On the ARPU question, I do recall in prior calls that we expected year-over-year ARPU continue to increase while sequentially, it wouldn't necessarily happen. Now specifically for the fourth quarter, a couple of things. The net adds that are really healthy net adds in Q3, and they were heavily weighted towards the last part of the quarter, so that effectively dilutes ARPU going into the next quarter. And we had a quarter where we had a good amount of net adds on promotion in Q4. So when you take those 2 effects together, that's affecting the sequential ARPU event.

    關於 ARPU 問題,我確實記得在之前的電話會議中,我們預計 ARPU 會繼續同比增長,但不一定會發生。現在專門針對第四季度,有幾件事。第三季度的淨增加量確實是健康的淨增加量,並且它們在本季度的最後部分佔很大比重,因此有效地稀釋了進入下一季度的 ARPU。我們有一個季度在第四季度的促銷活動中有大量淨增加。因此,當您將這兩種效果結合在一起時,就會影響連續的 ARPU 事件。

  • Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And on the cost side, I mean, you've come in ahead of the cost guidance or your costs have been lower than guidance, I think, for a couple of quarters or a few quarters now. But is that because of conservativeness? Or is that because something in your plan changed and costs got pushed out? So how should we think about that guidance?

    知道了。在成本方面,我的意思是,你的成本已經超過了成本指導,或者你的成本已經低於指導,我認為,現在已經有幾個季度或幾個季度了。但這是因為保守嗎?還是因為您的計劃中的某些內容髮生了變化並且成本被推遲了?那麼我們應該如何看待這種指導呢?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So in 2021, I think the market for talent was such that we didn't end up growing our net heads quite at the rate that we had expected. And that held back our cost growth a bit. Our guidance, we aim to be accurate, we don't aim to be too conservative. So I would not chalk it up to conservativeness. And we feel good about our guide of 13% to 15% in the core business for Q1.

    是的。所以在 2021 年,我認為人才市場如此之大,以至於我們最終沒有以我們預期的速度增長淨人數。這在一定程度上阻礙了我們的成本增長。我們的指導,我們的目標是準確,我們的目標不是過於保守。所以我不會把它歸結為保守。我們對第一季度核心業務中 13% 至 15% 的指導感到滿意。

  • Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • One last, if I may, in terms of a follow-up on the churn comment you made. Is it possible for us to get some context around the 3 components of churn and what the contribution was in the quarter?

    最後一個,如果可以的話,關於您對流失評論的跟進。我們是否有可能了解流失的 3 個組成部分以及該季度的貢獻是什麼?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • So the onetime event that I mentioned in the international market was pretty substantial. The card processes didn't have time to adjust to the announcement of the change in the regulation. So that was a pretty big chunk of it. But the other thing I'd point to is just overall, we did make this intentional change in the way we're working with the journey and trying to get folks to subscribe earlier in the journey than we previously had because we believe being a subscriber is the best way to actually engage and interact with the product.

    所以我在國際市場上提到的一次性事件非常重要。卡片流程沒有時間適應法規變更的公告。所以這是相當大的一部分。但我要指出的另一件事是總體而言,我們確實在我們處理旅程的方式上做出了這種有意的改變,並試圖讓人們在旅程中比以前更早訂閱,因為我們相信成為訂閱者是實際參與產品並與之互動的最佳方式。

  • So we did trade off a little bit of initial early-tenure churn for that. And as I mentioned, we think that's going to pay off in the long run in terms of cumulative lifetime value because the conversion rates are that much higher and net adds are that much higher. And that was also a fairly sizable chunk.

    因此,我們確實為此犧牲了一些最初的早期任期流失。正如我所提到的,我們認為從長期來看,這將在累積生命週期價值方面得到回報,因為轉換率要高得多,淨增加值也要高得多。這也是相當大的一塊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Vasily Karasyov from Cannonball Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Cannonball Research 的 Vasily Karasyov。

  • Vasily Karasyov - Founder

    Vasily Karasyov - Founder

  • Roland, I think my questions are for you. Can you please tell us how Q4 net adds actually came in relative to the expectations that you shared with us on the Q3 call? And then I wanted to ask you to talk about the LTV to CAC ratio that you saw in '21, how it compares to '20, what the drivers are. And then what does your change of focus towards unique subscribers mean for your LTV to CAC calculations?

    羅蘭,我想我的問題是給你的。您能否告訴我們,相對於您在第三季度電話會議上與我們分享的預期,第四季度的淨增加量實際上是如何產生的?然後我想請你談談你在 21 年看到的 LTV 與 CAC 的比率,它與 20 年相比如何,驅動因素是什麼。那麼,您將重點轉向獨特訂戶對您的 LTV 到 CAC 計算意味著什麼?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. So let's talk about net adds a bit. The first thing I want to say is we're really confident in our subscriber growth potential in all categories, in news, in our other products, in the bundle. And I think the real hard evidence for that confidence is we just shared a new target publicly. And with that target, you can track our progress. That said, the news cycle is going to ebb and flow, and we don't live and die on 1 quarter.

    好的。所以讓我們談談網絡添加。我想說的第一件事是,我們對我們在所有類別、新聞、我們的其他產品和捆綁包中的訂戶增長潛力非常有信心。我認為這種信心的真正確鑿證據是我們剛剛公開分享了一個新目標。有了這個目標,您就可以跟踪我們的進度。也就是說,新聞周期將起起落落,我們不會在第一季度生存和死亡。

  • Q4, I'd just emphasize that specifically in Q4, we pulled back on friction a bit, which is what we told you we would do on the Q3 call. I won't repeat myself on optimizing the journey in pay flow, which I just spoke to. And so that may churn a little worse, maybe net adds, a little lower. None of this was outside of our expectations. And I believe we did our best to signal that on the Q3 call.

    第四季度,我只想強調,特別是在第四季度,我們稍微減少了摩擦,這就是我們在第三季度電話會議上告訴你的事情。我不會重複我剛剛談到的優化薪酬流程的旅程。所以這可能會變得更糟,也許淨增加一點,更低。這一切都超出了我們的預期。我相信我們已盡最大努力在第三季度電話會議上表明這一點。

  • Vasily Karasyov - Founder

    Vasily Karasyov - Founder

  • Okay. And the LTV to CAC?

    好的。以及 LTV 到 CAC?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Let's start here. LTV to SAC, and you asked versus '20. And 2020 was an exceptional year, really a black swan year, and especially in terms of LTV to SAC because the organic demand was so strong, and we took advantage of that by pulling back on our marketing. So in 2021, a more normalized year, the LTV to SAC ratio obviously went down a bit. And as we've told you, we've had a little bit worse churn, which takes the LTV down a little bit. So the combination of those 2 things, the first being the most prevalent driver here, both led to LTV to SAC coming down. But we're really comfortable where the LTV to SAC ratio is right now. We think it's healthy.

    是的。讓我們從這裡開始。 LTV 到 SAC,你問的是 20 年。 2020 年是特殊的一年,真的是黑天鵝年,尤其是在 LTV 到 SAC 方面,因為有機需求非常強勁,我們通過縮減營銷來利用這一點。所以在 2021 年,一個更加正常化的年份,LTV 與 SAC 的比率顯然有所下降。正如我們告訴你的那樣,我們的客戶流失情況更糟,這使 LTV 下降了一點。所以這兩件事的結合,第一個是這裡最普遍的驅動因素,都導致 LTV 到 SAC 下降。但我們現在對 LTV 與 SAC 的比率非常滿意。我們認為它是健康的。

  • Vasily Karasyov - Founder

    Vasily Karasyov - Founder

  • And what do you think happens to it when you -- with your focus shifting towards unique subs as opposed to product-specific subs?

    當您將重點轉移到獨特的潛艇而不是特定於產品的潛艇時,您認為會發生什麼?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, it's a good question. I don't really see -- let's talk about the components a little bit. I don't really see the percent of organic starts to pay -- starts changing all that much. And as I mentioned in response to Kannan's question, we expect the change in mix, meaning mix of bundle versus individual products, as that becomes more weighted towards a bundled subscription, there's 2 effects that should help lifetime value: one is the ARPU and the others being better retention.

    是的,這是個好問題。我真的不明白——讓我們稍微談談組件。我並沒有真正看到有機開始支付的百分比 - 開始發生很大變化。正如我在回答 Kannan 的問題時提到的那樣,我們預計組合的變化,即捆綁產品與單個產品的組合,隨著捆綁訂閱的權重越來越大,有兩個影響應該有助於終身價值:一個是 ARPU 和其他人更好的保留。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Craig Huber from Huber Research Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • My first question, I guess, Meredith, obviously, your digital ad revenues doing quite well here, up about 20%, 21% over 2 years. Maybe you could just talk about the environment for digital advertising beyond maybe just the first quarter, if you could think out a little bit further. I'm also curious, the changes with Apple's iOS system with data privacy, et cetera, on there, is there any material impact to your growth rate there for digital advertising? And I have a follow-up.

    我想我的第一個問題,Meredith,很明顯,你們的數字廣告收入在這裡做得很好,兩年內增長了大約 20% 和 21%。如果您可以進一步思考,也許您可以只談論第一季度之外的數字廣告環境。我也很好奇,Apple 的 iOS 系統在數據隱私等方面的變化,對你們在數字廣告方面的增長率有什麼實質性影響嗎?我有一個後續行動。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Craig, I'll take the second one first and just say no, not that we've seen, so in terms of impact from Apple. And I'll add that we think our own proprietary first-party data products make The Times a compelling place for marketers, particularly in an environment where people are more concerned, not less about privacy. So no particular impact and we think the winds are blowing in our direction in terms of what we've built with first-party data.

    是的。克雷格,我會先拿第二個,然後說不,不是我們見過的,所以就蘋果的影響而言。我還要補充一點,我們認為我們自己專有的第一方數據產品使《紐約時報》成為營銷人員的一個有吸引力的地方,特別是在人們更加關注隱私的環境中,而不是更少關注隱私。所以沒有特別的影響,我們認為就我們使用第一方數據構建的內容而言,風正朝著我們的方向吹來。

  • More broadly, I'll go back to something Roland and I have both been saying now for a few quarters, which is we like our ad business better today than we have in quite some time. We've worked really hard to have a business that sort of runs on the same high-octane gas as the subscription business, which is registered, logged in, deeply engaged users whose data we can use in privacy-forward ways to target ads. And we're optimistic that, that is a sustainable strategy. And you're hearing that optimism in our descriptions.

    更廣泛地說,我將回到 Roland 和我現在已經說了幾個季度的事情,那就是我們現在比過去很長一段時間更喜歡我們的廣告業務。我們非常努力地工作,以建立一個與訂閱業務一樣的高辛烷值氣體運行的業務,訂閱業務是註冊、登錄、深度參與的用戶,我們可以使用他們的數據以隱私轉發的方式來定位廣告。我們樂觀地認為,這是一個可持續的戰略。您在我們的描述中聽到了這種樂觀情緒。

  • I always give the caveat that digital advertising tends to be a demand-driven market, not a supply-driven market. We -- but we're -- we certainly feel good about where we are and good about the competitive nature and differential value of our product set. And as I've said, one of the things we're particularly excited about is pretty close to a greenfield opportunity with The Athletic to build a similar business in nature and character to what we have at The Times.

    我總是警告說,數字廣告往往是一個需求驅動的市場,而不是一個供應驅動的市場。我們 - 但我們 - 我們當然對我們所處的位置感到滿意,並且對我們產品集的競爭性質和差異價值感到滿意。正如我所說,我們特別興奮的一件事是非常接近與 The Athletic 的綠地機會,以建立與我們在《紐約時報》擁有的業務性質和性格相似的業務。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • Then also wanted to ask, given this environment of a much higher inflation numbers out there, roughly 7% year-over-year, how do you think that impacts your business here? Or is it immaterial in terms of how you think about your revenues? And obviously, the cost as well if you could touch on that.

    然後還想問一下,鑑於目前通脹數字高得多的環境,同比增長約 7%,您認為這對您的業務有何影響?還是就您對收入的看法而言無關緊要?顯然,如果你能談到這一點,成本也是如此。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • I'll just say -- Roland, you can add to this as well, but we've sort of broadly considered everything we understand today about the macroeconomic environment in what we've shared with you thus far.

    我只想說——羅蘭,你也可以補充一下,但我們已經廣泛考慮了我們今天與你分享的關於宏觀經濟環境的一切。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • And then my last question. I haven't heard you guys talk much lately about your various Audio products. Maybe if you could update us on that. And is there any chance down the road that you guys might start charging for any of that?

    然後我的最後一個問題。我最近沒有聽到你們談論你們的各種音頻產品。也許如果你能更新我們。你們有沒有可能開始為此收費?

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, I'm happy to take that. I'll say a few things about Audio. We had another strong year in engagement with our Audio products led by The Daily, which I think celebrated its fifth birthday yesterday. So we continue to be very, very happy to have one of the largest general interest news pods there is, and it continues to be a huge performer for us in every way, audience, advertising, directing attention to other podcasts.

    是的,我很樂意接受。我會說一些關於音頻的事情。我們在參與由 The Daily 領導的音頻產品方面又度過了強勁的一年,我認為昨天慶祝了它的五歲生日。因此,我們仍然非常非常高興擁有最大的大眾興趣新聞播客之一,並且它在各個方面對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的表演者,觀眾,廣告,將注意力引向其他播客。

  • So I'll say we continue to be excited about experimenting with what I would describe as the multiple different ways our differentiated audio offering can play a role in our subscription funnel. You're seeing us do that indirectly. We bring people into the funnel through The Daily and the other podcasts we have. The Ezra Klein Show has strong listenership and growing, and we're excited about all the podcasts we have with the potential to do that.

    所以我想說,我們對嘗試我所說的多種不同方式我們的差異化音頻產品可以在我們的訂閱渠道中發揮作用感到興奮。你看到我們間接地這樣做了。我們通過 The Daily 和我們擁有的其他播客將人們帶入漏斗。 Ezra Klein Show 擁有強大的聽眾和成長性,我們對我們擁有的所有有潛力的播客感到興奮。

  • And then you saw us make a move -- gosh, now I'm losing track of time, but a couple of years ago, a year ago, to acquire Audm, which is -- it was a small acquisition, but it's a really cool audio app for read-aloud audio, long-form narrative journalism. And that gives us a real Petri dish to experiment with a destination product where people come specifically to listen to read-aloud journalism.

    然後你看到我們採取了行動——天哪,現在我忘記了時間,但幾年前,一年前,收購 Audm,這是——這是一個小收購,但它真的是用於朗讀音頻、長篇敘事新聞的酷音頻應用程序。這給了我們一個真正的培養皿來試驗一種目標產品,人們專門來聽朗讀新聞。

  • And then I'll also say we have still a beta in the market around NYT Audio, which is really experimenting with the possibility of The Times having an audio destination. And I would say we've got lots of irons in the fire. In any scenario, we're optimistic that audio is going to play a big and important role in -- either directly or indirectly in our subscription business. And it's -- there's a ton of demand for it as an advertising business, and we're excited about the products that we have and expect to continue to add to it.

    然後我還要說,我們在 NYT Audio 的市場上仍然有一個測試版,它確實在試驗《紐約時報》擁有音頻目的地的可能性。我會說我們有很多鐵桿在火裡。在任何情況下,我們都樂觀地認為音頻將在我們的訂閱業務中直接或間接地發揮重要作用。而且它 - 作為廣告業務有大量需求,我們對我們擁有並期望繼續添加的產品感到興奮。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • That's great. Sorry, my last question on that. What is the number of unique listeners that you have either daily or monthly? And that's all I have.

    那太棒了。對不起,我的最後一個問題。您每天或每月擁有多少獨立聽眾?這就是我所擁有的。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • We -- I don't think we disclose that. I'll just say it continues to be strong. I think we've said stuff in the neighborhood of a couple of million people a day who to listen to The Daily. I don't think we've disclosed beyond that, but it's in the range of a couple of million or a few million for The Daily.

    我們——我認為我們不會透露這一點。我只想說它仍然很強大。我想我們已經在每天有幾百萬人聽 The Daily 的時候說了一些話。我不認為我們已經披露了更多信息,但對於《每日郵報》來說,它在幾百萬或幾百萬的範圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Vijay Jayant from Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Jayant。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • It's Davis on for Vijay. Just a few questions, if I could. Have all nonpromotion digital new subscribers received a price increase now? And how should we think about price increases for your digital and use product going forward? And how does bundling kind of affect how you think about price increases?

    維杰是戴維斯。有幾個問題,如果可以的話。現在所有非促銷數字新用戶都收到了價格上漲嗎?我們應該如何考慮未來數字和使用產品的價格上漲?捆綁銷售如何影響您對價格上漲的看法?

  • And then I just had a second question on a follow-up to the LTV to SAC question. I understand it's worse than 2020, but compared to 2019 levels, how does the LTV to SAC compare?

    然後我就 LTV 到 SAC 問題的後續問題提出了第二個問題。我知道它比 2020 年差,但與 2019 年的水平相比,LTV 與 SAC 的比較如何?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. So I'll take the pricing question. So let me be clear, are you asking about the price increase on the tenured subscribers or the step-up of the promotional? I think I heard the question -- I think the intent is about the price increase on the tenured subscribers.

    好的。所以我會回答定價問題。所以讓我澄清一下,你問的是終身訂閱者的價格上漲還是促銷的升級?我想我聽到了這個問題——我認為目的是關於終身訂戶的價格上漲。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Yes, correct.

    是,對的。

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. So yes, we are almost done with that program. There are not that many folks who fall into the category of getting moved from $15 to $17 a month left. So the effect of that, the little boost we get from that is pretty much exhausted. And at this point, we don't have any plans further on tenured price increases.

    好的。所以是的,我們幾乎完成了那個程序。沒有多少人屬於每月從 15 美元轉移到 17 美元的類別。因此,我們從中獲得的一點點提升幾乎已經耗盡。在這一點上,我們沒有任何進一步提高終身價格的計劃。

  • As far as -- I'm sorry, Davis , can you repeat the second part of your question?

    至於 - 對不起,戴維斯,你能重複你問題的第二部分嗎?

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Yes. And then how does kind of bundling affect how you think about price increases?

    是的。那麼,捆綁銷售如何影響您對價格上漲的看法?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, very good. So a couple of things. One is we are still in a kind of a testing mode as to what the right price will be for that bundle, but you could expect it to take sort of the same approach. We would take a similar approach to what we've done, meaning there would be a promotional price and then a step up and then a full price and some folks would go to full right away and others would step up. So that's probably the model, but we're still testing what those right price points are, both in terms of the promotional rate and the full list rep rate.

    是的,很好。所以有幾件事。一個是對於該捆綁包的正確價格,我們仍處於一種測試模式,但您可以期望它採用相同的方法。我們將採取與我們所做的類似的方法,這意味著會有促銷價格,然後是加價,然後是全價,有些人會立即滿額,其他人會加價。所以這可能是模型,但我們仍在測試那些合適的價格點,無論是促銷率還是完整的列表重複率。

  • That said, ultimately, the play here is that ARPU will increase as folks are subscribing to the full breadth of The New York Times, which provides a lot of value on an everyday basis for a lot of needs beyond news. So longer term, ARPU should increase as that mix changes. And we're confident that, that mix will change in the right direction.

    也就是說,最終,隨著人們訂閱《紐約時報》的全部廣度,ARPU 將會增加,這在日常基礎上為滿足新聞以外的許多需求提供了很多價值。所以從長遠來看,ARPU 應該會隨著組合的變化而增加。我們相信,這種組合將朝著正確的方向改變。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • That's right. Roland, I'll just add 2 things to that. The bundle is a bet on both volume and ARPU. We're still in early days of penetration of the big and growing market, and we think it helps us get to more volume and also with a more valuable product that people engage with for more needs in their lives. So it is about both those things. And we think given where we are in the journey, it's still early. We can grow both -- we believe we can grow both volume and ARPU.

    這是正確的。羅蘭,我只補充兩點。該捆綁包是對交易量和 ARPU 的賭注。我們仍處於進入龐大且不斷增長的市場的早期階段,我們認為這有助於我們獲得更大的銷量,並為人們提供更有價值的產品,以滿足他們生活中的更多需求。所以這是關於這兩件事的。我們認為,考慮到我們在旅途中所處的位置,現在還為時過早。我們可以同時增長——我們相信我們可以同時增長銷量和 ARPU。

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then your question was, I guess, a follow-up on LTV to SAC. And I guess I'll just -- I'll add a little bit to what I said before, and that is we -- Meredith mentioned in the prepared remarks that we expect to get more efficient on the marketing side because of the improvements we're making in the product and the like. So that's going to actually help our LTV to SAC ratio because we don't expect to be marketing at the same -- necessarily at the same rate. So as that efficiency goes up, that should also be a tailwind to LTV to SAC. I don't have the 2019 figures in front of me. But again, the numbers are very healthy. We're happy where they are. And I suspect they are -- they would be higher.

    然後你的問題是,我猜是 LTV 到 SAC 的後續行動。我想我會——我會在我之前所說的基礎上添加一點,那就是我們——梅雷迪思在準備好的評論中提到,由於我們的改進,我們希望在營銷方面變得更有效率'正在製作產品等。所以這實際上將有助於我們的 LTV 與 SAC 的比率,因為我們不希望以相同的速度進行營銷 - 必須以相同的速度進行。因此,隨著效率的提高,這也應該是 LTV 到 SAC 的順風。我面前沒有 2019 年的數據。但同樣,這些數字非常健康。我們很高興他們在哪裡。我懷疑他們是——他們會更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Doug Arthur from Huber Research Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Doug Arthur。

  • Douglas Middleton Arthur - MD & Research Analyst

    Douglas Middleton Arthur - MD & Research Analyst

  • Yes. Can you hear me?

    是的。你能聽到我嗎?

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Douglas Middleton Arthur - MD & Research Analyst

    Douglas Middleton Arthur - MD & Research Analyst

  • Meredith, it's early days on The Athletic. Is it safe -- based on the numbers you threw out in the press release and what's been reported, there are around 1.2 million subscribers. Is there any way to sort of discuss longer-term kind of aspirations there? Is sort of the first line of offense to kind of protect the level it's at now given the change in ownership and kind of it's new for The Athletic being under your umbrella, and then grow it from there? Or -- I mean, anything you can add just sort of frame that over the next -- your aspirations over the next 3 to 5 years would be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.

    Meredith,現在是 The Athletic 的早期階段。安全嗎?根據您在新聞稿中提供的數字和報導的內容,大約有 120 萬訂閱者。有什麼方法可以在那裡討論長期的願望嗎?考慮到所有權的變化以及對 The Athletic 在你的保護傘下的新事物,然後從那裡發展它,這是第一道進攻線來保護它現在的水平嗎?或者——我的意思是,任何你可以在未來添加的框架——你在未來 3 到 5 年的願望都會有所幫助。然後我有一個跟進。

  • Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

    Meredith A. Kopit Levien - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Let me say a few things about it. Number one, we certainly acquired The Athletic because we believe there's real growth potential for subscribers, particularly in an Athletic that's owned by the New York Times. And we see that growth potential 3 ways. We think owning The Athletic and being able to meet daily needs in sports helps bring more people into the New York Times funnel. So we think it helps us sell more news and bundled subscriptions. We believe that the platform and the products that we've built will enable us to direct some of that funnel to grow subscriptions for The Athletic, which we've described.

    是的。讓我談談它。第一,我們當然收購了 The Athletic,因為我們相信訂閱者有真正的增長潛力,特別是在紐約時報旗下的 Athletic 中。我們從三個方面看到了增長潛力。我們認為擁有 The Athletic 並能夠滿足體育運動的日常需求有助於將更多人帶入紐約時報的漏斗。因此,我們認為這有助於我們銷售更多新聞和捆綁訂閱。我們相信,我們構建的平台和產品將使我們能夠引導其中一些渠道來增加我們已經描述的 The Athletic 的訂閱量。

  • We -- some of the first moves we'll make will be about distribution and audience development at The Athletic, applying the insights we've gained from our customer journey to The Athletic and also applying a lot of what we've learned about how to drive engagement and repeat engagement. So we see growth in both those places to The Athletic as a stand-alone subscription and also for the broader sort of potential of a Times bundle or The Times news product. And in addition to that, we see a real opportunity with the ad business, which I think I've described now in both of my prepared remarks in answer to your question.

    我們 - 我們將採取的一些初步舉措將是關於 The Athletic 的分銷和受眾發展,將我們從客戶旅程中獲得的洞察力應用到 The Athletic,並將我們學到的很多關於如何推動參與和重複參與。因此,我們看到 The Athletic 作為獨立訂閱在這兩個地方的增長以及時代捆綁包或時代新聞產品的更廣泛潛力。除此之外,我們看到了廣告業務的真正機會,我想我現在已經在我準備好的回答你的問題的兩個評論中描述了這一點。

  • As far as how to kind of characterize the ambition, what we've tried to do in this moment is to give you another mile marker of what we're aiming for on the journey. We've expressed it in subscribers versus subscriptions. So 15 million subscribers would translate to a larger number of subscriptions. And you can imagine that, that is a combination of more New York Times news subscribers and bundled subscribers and stand-alone subscribers, including The Athletic. So we've got a lot of confidence and optimism in what we've described to you so far. And I think that headline number, a rough doubling of where The Times was at the end of last year, is the best way we can describe it to you. And our ambitions for The Athletic are within that.

    至於如何描述雄心壯志,我們在這一刻試圖做的是給你另一個里程碑,說明我們在旅途中的目標。我們已經在訂閱者與訂閱中表達了這一點。因此,1500 萬訂閱者將轉化為更多訂閱。你可以想像,這是更多紐約時報新聞訂閱者、捆綁訂閱者和獨立訂閱者的組合,包括 The Athletic。因此,我們對迄今為止向您描述的內容充滿信心和樂觀。我認為這個標題數字是《紐約時報》去年年底的大約兩倍,是我們可以向您描述它的最佳方式。我們對 The Athletic 的抱負就在其中。

  • Douglas Middleton Arthur - MD & Research Analyst

    Douglas Middleton Arthur - MD & Research Analyst

  • Excellent. And then as a follow-up, Roland, in terms of the guidance, you do make the comment in the press release that you expect core business cost growth to slow considerably in the second half. Is some of that the marketing efficiency you talked about? Or is there more at work there?

    優秀。然後作為後續行動,羅蘭,就指導而言,您確實在新聞稿中發表評論,您預計核心業務成本增長將在下半年大幅放緩。你談到的營銷效率是其中的一部分嗎?還是那裡有更多的工作?

  • Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

    Roland A. Caputo - Executive VP & CFO

  • Some of that is, yes. Clearly, some of that is marketing efficiency, and if you look at the comps, specifically on sales and marketing. But the marketing component within that, we spent quite a bit in the back half of '21. We don't expect to do that in '22. So that is -- that plays a big role in the slowdown in cost growth in the back half of '22.

    其中一些是,是的。顯然,其中一些是營銷效率,如果你看一下組合,特別是關於銷售和營銷的。但是其中的營銷部分,我們在 21 年下半年花了很多錢。我們不希望在 22 年這樣做。這就是 - 這在 22 世紀後半期的成本增長放緩中發揮了重要作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Harlan Toplitzky for any closing remarks.

    女士們,先生們,今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權轉回給 Harlan Toplitzky 做任何結束語。

  • Harlan Toplitzky - Executive Director of IR and Financial Planning & Analysis

    Harlan Toplitzky - Executive Director of IR and Financial Planning & Analysis

  • Thank you very much for joining us this morning, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

    非常感謝您今天早上加入我們,我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們,先生們,至此,我們將結束今天的電話會議。我們非常感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。