nVent Electric PLC (NVT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the nVent Electric Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 nVent Electric 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在記錄中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Tony Riter, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Tony Riter。請繼續。

  • Tony Riter - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Tony Riter - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and welcome to nVent's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. On the call with me are Beth Wozniak, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Sara Zawoyski, Chief Financial Officer. Today, we'll provide details on our fourth quarter and full year performance and our outlook for 2025.

    謝謝,歡迎參加 nVent 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。與我一起通話的還有董事長兼執行長 Beth Wozniak;以及財務長 Sara Zawoyski。今天,我們將詳細介紹我們的第四季和全年業績以及 2025 年的展望。

  • As a reminder, starting in Q3 2024, the company began reporting the results of the Thermal Management business as discontinued operations. 2023 and 2024 results for all prior periods along with guidance are presented on a continuing operations basis. All results referenced throughout the presentation are on a continued operation basis, unless otherwise stated.

    提醒一下,從 2024 年第三季開始,該公司開始將熱管理業務的結果報告為已停止的業務。所有前期的 2023 年和 2024 年業績以及指引均以持續經營基礎呈現。除非另有說明,否則簡報中引用的所有結果均以持續營運為基礎。

  • Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in today's press release and nVent's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results.

    在我們開始之前,請允許我提醒您,有關公司預期財務表現的任何陳述均為前瞻性陳述,受未來風險和不確定性的影響,例如今天的新聞稿和 nVent 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中概述的風險。前瞻性陳述是截至今天做出的,本公司不承擔公開更新此類陳述以反映後續事件或情況的義務。實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。

  • Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which you can find in the Investors section of nVent's website. References to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will have time for questions after our prepared remarks.

    今天的網路廣播附有演示文稿,您可以在 nVent 網站的投資者部分找到。對非公認會計準則財務數據的引用已在簡報的附錄中進行了核對。在發表準備好的發言後,我們將有時間回答大家的問題。

  • With that, please turn to slide 3, and I will now turn the call over to Beth.

    說完這些,請翻到幻燈片 3,我現在將電話轉給 Beth。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be with you today to share our fourth quarter and full year results. 2024 marked a pivotal year for nVent with our strong performance and portfolio transformation. Q4 had 9% reported sales growth, margin expansion, and adjusted EPS growth of 7%. For the full year, we had 13% reported sales growth, continued margin expansion, strong earnings growth, and outstanding cash flow. I'm very proud of our nVent team and everything we have accomplished.

    謝謝你,托尼,大家早安。很高興今天能與大家分享我們第四季和全年的業績。 2024 年對 nVent 來說是關鍵的一年,我們實現了強勁的業績和投資組合轉型。第四季報告銷售額成長 9%,利潤率擴大,調整後每股收益成長 7%。全年來看,我們的銷售額成長了 13%,利潤率持續擴大,獲利成長強勁,現金流優異。我為我們的 nVent 團隊和我們所取得的一切成就感到非常自豪。

  • We have made great progress on transforming our portfolio. Last week, we closed on the sale of the Thermal Management business. We expect to have nearly $2 billion in capital available to deploy in 2025. I'm very excited with how we are repositioning the nVent portfolio to be more focused around the trends of electrification, sustainability, and digitalization.

    我們在轉型產品組合方面取得了巨大進展。上週,我們完成了熱管理業​​務的出售。我們預計 2025 年將有近 20 億美元的資本可供部署。我很高興看到我們重新定位 nVent 產品組合,使其更加關注電氣化、永續性和數位化趨勢。

  • Our 2025 guidance at the midpoint reflects approximately 9% sales growth and 22% adjusted earnings per share growth. We are well positioned for strong sales and earnings, driven by our focus on high-growth verticals, new products and acquisitions.

    我們對 2025 年的中點預期反映出約 9% 的銷售額成長和 22% 的調整後每股盈餘成長。由於我們專注於高成長垂直產業、新產品和收購,我們為實現強勁的銷售和獲利做好了準備。

  • Slide 4 summarizes our Q4 and full year performance. Fourth quarter sales were up 9%. Organic sales were slightly down. Sales to our key distribution partners were down more than expected as they manage their inventory positions. Importantly, sell-out remained positive. Segment income grew 12% year-over-year with return on sales up 50 basis points. Adjusted EPS grew 7%, and we generated $150 million of free cash flow.

    投影片 4 總結了我們第四季和全年的業績。第四季銷售額成長了 9%。有機銷售額略有下降。由於我們主要分銷合作夥伴管理庫存狀況,其銷售額下降幅度超出預期。重要的是,銷售情況依然良好。分部營收年增12%,銷售報酬率上升50個基點。調整後的每股盈餘成長了 7%,我們產生了 1.5 億美元的自由現金流。

  • Looking at sales performance across our key verticals. Infrastructure led, up low single digits organically. Industrial was flat. Commercial resi declined mid-single digits with continued softness. Finally, energy was up mid-10s.

    查看我們主要垂直行業的銷售業績。基礎設施引領,有機成長個位數低幅成長。工業表現持平。商業不動產持續疲軟,下跌個位數中段。最後,能量上升到了 10% 左右。

  • Turning to organic sales by geography. North America declined low single digits and Europe was up slightly. Asia Pacific grew in the mid-10s with solid growth in China.

    轉向按地域劃分的有機銷售。北美地區呈現個位數低下降,歐洲地區則略有上升。亞太地區在 15 年代中期實現了成長,其中中國實現了穩健的成長。

  • Lastly, organic orders were up low 10s in the quarter, including double-digit order growth in data solutions. For the full year, we had sales of $3 billion, an increase of 13% and 2% organically. Segment income grew 15% with margins expanding 50 basis points. Adjusted EPS was up 7%. For the full year, we had strong free cash flow of $427 million, growing 20%.

    最後,本季有機訂單成長了 10% 以下,其中數據解決方案的訂單實現了兩位數的成長。全年我們的銷售額為 30 億美元,成長 13%,有機成長 2%。分部營收成長 15%,利潤率擴大 50 個基點。調整後每股收益上漲 7%。全年來看,我們的自由現金流強勁,達到 4.27 億美元,成長 20%。

  • Let me share a few more highlights. First, we launched approximately 90 new products in 2024, contributing more than 2 points to our sales growth. We have great momentum in our innovation pipeline. Second, organic growth was led by the infrastructure vertical. Within infrastructure, data solutions now represents approximately $600 million in sales and grew approximately 30% in 2024.

    讓我再分享幾個亮點。首先,我們在2024年推出了約90款新產品,為我們的銷售成長貢獻了2個百分點以上。我們的創新管道發展勢頭強勁。其次,有機成長由基礎設施垂直領域推動。在基礎設施領域,數據解決方案目前的銷售額約為 6 億美元,到 2024 年將成長約 30%。

  • Overall, I'm proud of our nVent team and the strong results we delivered in 2024. We believe 2025 will be a year of strong growth and value creation.

    總的來說,我為我們的 nVent 團隊和我們在 2024 年取得的強勁業績感到自豪。我們相信,2025年將是強勁成長和價值創造的一年。

  • Moving to slide 5. We have been on a journey to transform our portfolio, and 2024 was a pivotal year. The divestiture of Thermal Management positions nVent as a more focused, higher-growth electrical connection and protection company. Approximately 70% of our portfolio is exposed to secular trends, and one-third of our sales are in the infrastructure vertical, up from low 10s when we spun as a company nearly seven years ago. We also have done seven acquisitions to date, adding significantly to the offerings of our business segments.

    移至投影片 5。我們一直在努力轉變我們的投資組合,而 2024 年是關鍵的一年。熱管理業務的剝離將使 nVent 成為一家更專注、成長更快的電氣連接和保護公司。我們的投資組合中約有 70% 受到長期趨勢的影響,三分之一的銷售額來自基礎設施垂直領域,而近七年前我們公司成立時這一數字僅為 10%。到目前為止,我們還完成了七次收購,大大增強了我們業務部門的供給能力。

  • Now is the right time to rename our segments to better reflect what they do for our customers. Beginning in Q1 2025, the Enclosure segment will be known as Systems Protection. This segment includes enclosures but is far beyond that with power distribution units, cooling solutions, both liquid and air, and control buildings.

    現在是重命名我們各個部門的最佳時機,以更好地反映它們為我們的客戶所做的事情。從 2025 年第一季開始,外殼部分將被稱為系統保護。該部分包括外殼,但遠不止於此,還涉及配電裝置、液體和空氣冷卻解決方案以及控制建築。

  • We provide our customers with products and solutions that protect electronics systems and data. In addition, the Electrical & Fastening segment will be known as Electrical Connections to represent the expansion of this portfolio to power connections along with Electrical & Fastening Solutions. This segment offers products and solutions that make electrical systems safe, efficient and resilient.

    我們為客戶提供保護電子系統和資料的產品和解決方案。此外,電氣和緊固件部門將被稱為電氣連接,以代表該產品組合向電源連接以及電氣和緊固件解決方案的擴展。該部門提供使電氣系統更安全、更有效率、更有彈性的產品和解決方案。

  • Turning to slide 6 and our outlook for the verticals in 2025. Infrastructure is expected to grow the fastest, up low double digits. Data center CapEx is expected to continue to increase. Also, electrical infrastructure is expected to continue to expand in power utilities, renewables and energy storage, given the increasing electrical demand. Industrial is expected to grow low to mid-single digits with improving CapEx investment in North America. Commercial resi is expected to be up low single digits as commercial improves with electrification demand for both new construction and existing buildings.

    前往投影片 6,我們對 2025 年垂直產業的展望。預計基礎設施將成長最快,達到低兩位數。數據中心資本支出預計將持續增加。此外,鑑於電力需求的不斷增長,預計電力基礎設施在電力公用事業、再生能源和能源儲存方面將繼續擴大。隨著北美資本支出的增加,工業預計將實現低至中等個位數成長。隨著新建築和現有建築的電氣化需求不斷增加,商業房地產預計將出現個位數成長。

  • Now on to slide 7. I would like to talk more about how we are growing in the infrastructure vertical. Overall, we have expanded our product portfolio both organically and inorganically in infrastructure. Data solutions is approximately 20% of our sales with products in liquid cooling, power distribution units, enclosures, and cable management.

    現在轉到投影片 7。我想進一步談談我們在基礎設施垂直領域的發展。總體而言,我們在基礎設施方面透過有機和無機的方式擴大了我們的產品組合。數據解決方案約占我們銷售額的 20%,產品包括液體冷卻、配電裝置、外殼和電纜管理。

  • We have seen strong growth across the portfolio and expect another year of double-digit growth in 2025, supported by a growing backlog. We are investing in new products and expanding our offerings in liquid cooling but also in cable management, with innovation in our wire basket trade, for example, and extending our power distribution offering.

    我們看到整個投資組合都實現了強勁成長,並預計在不斷增加的積壓訂單的支持下,2025 年將再次實現兩位數的成長。我們正在投資新產品並擴大我們在液體冷卻和電纜管理方面的產品範圍,例如,在我們的金屬絲籃貿易中進行創新,並擴展我們的配電產品範圍。

  • Also in infrastructure, power utilities now represent approximately 10% of our sales. The acquisition of Trachte last year more than doubled our exposure to power utilities and creates an entirely new growth platform of control buildings. The demand for control buildings is increasing with an aging electrical infrastructure that needs upgrading and need to expand the overall grid, the move to more renewable energy, and the increase in data centers. We continue to see the backlog grow in this business, supporting our forecast for double-digit growth in power utilities this year.

    此外,在基礎設施方面,電力公用事業目前約占我們銷售額的 10%。去年對 Trachte 的收購使我們在電力公用事業領域的業務增加了一倍多,並創造了一個全新的控制建築成長平台。隨著老化的電力基礎設施需要升級、需要擴大整體電網、轉向更多再生能源以及資料中心的增加,控制建築的需求正在增加。我們持續看到該業務的積壓訂單成長,支持了我們對今年電力公用事業實現兩位數成長的預測。

  • Moving to slide 8. New products and innovation are a core part of our strategy and a strong contributor to our sales growth. We are focused on six core technology platforms. These include cable management, control buildings, equipment protection, liquid cooling, power connections, and power management.

    移至幻燈片 8。新產品和創新是我們策略的核心部分,也是我們銷售成長的強大貢獻者。我們專注於六大核心技術平台。這些包括電纜管理、控制建築、設備保護、液體冷卻、電源連接和電源管理。

  • We are prioritizing innovation on these platforms to drive differentiation, modularity for flexibility and velocity, and are actively expanding our global certifications. Last year, we opened a new technology center in Bangalore to allow us to build more R&D capability from design, modeling, simulation, et cetera, expanding our technical capabilities.

    我們優先考慮這些平台的創新,以推動差異化、模組化以實現靈活性和速度,並積極擴大我們的全球認證。去年,我們在班加羅爾開設了一個新的技術中心,使我們能夠從設計、建模、模擬等方面建立更多的研發能力,擴展我們的技術能力。

  • Looking at 2025, we expect to launch over 75 new products, helping to drive over 2 points of sales growth in the year. In addition, we expect new product vitality to be above 22%. At our core, nVent is a products and solutions company, so our strong focus on products and innovation are key to our growth strategy and our customer experience.

    展望2025年,我們預計將推出超過75種新產品,協助推動當年超過2個百分點的銷售成長。此外,我們預期新產品活力將在22%以上。從本質上講,nVent 是一家產品和解決方案公司,因此我們對產品和創新的高度關注是我們成長策略和客戶體驗的關鍵。

  • This wraps up my remarks. I will now turn the call over to Sara for details on our results as well as our 2025 outlook. Sara, please go ahead.

    我的發言到此結束。現在,我將把電話轉給 Sara,以了解有關我們的業績以及 2025 年展望的詳細資訊。薩拉,請繼續。

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Beth. I am pleased to share another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth, margin expansion, and robust free cash flow.

    謝謝你,貝絲。我很高興與大家分享又一個季度的穩健銷售和獲利成長、利潤率擴大和強勁的自由現金流。

  • Let's begin on slide 9 with our fourth quarter results. Sales of $752 million were up 9% compared to last year. Organic sales were down 1%, with price and volume each slightly down. Acquisitions added a meaningful $66 million to sales or 10 points to growth.

    讓我們從第 9 張投影片開始介紹我們的第四季業績。銷售額達 7.52 億美元,較去年同期成長 9%。有機銷售額下降 1%,價格和銷量均小幅下降。收購為銷售額增加了 6,600 萬美元,或帶來了 10 個百分點的成長。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted operating income was $158 million, up 12%. Return on sales was 21%, up 50 basis points year-over-year. Our performance was driven by acquisitions and strong productivity, partially offset by higher investments and inflation of approximately $25 million. Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.59, up 7% and at the midpoint of our guidance range, and we generated robust free cash flow of $150 million.

    第四季調整後營業收入為 1.58 億美元,成長 12%。銷售回報率為21%,比去年同期上升50個基點。我們的業績主要得益於收購和強勁的生產效率,但較高的投資和約 2,500 萬美元的通貨膨脹部分抵消了這一影響。 Q4調整後的每股收益為 0.59 美元,成長 7%,處於我們指導範圍的中點,我們產生了 1.5 億美元的強勁自由現金流。

  • Now please turn to slide 10 for a discussion of our fourth quarter segment performance. Starting with Enclosures, now Systems Protection. Sales of $466 million increased 16% and down 1% on an organic basis. The Trachte acquisition contributed 16 points to sales and continues to perform very well, up strong double digits versus a year ago and backlog continues to grow.

    現在請翻到第 10 張投影片來討論我們第四季的分部表現。從外殼開始,現在是系統保護。銷售額為 4.66 億美元,成長 16%,有機成長下降 1%。Trachte 的收購為銷售額貢獻了 16 個百分點,並且繼續表現良好,與一年前相比增長了兩位數,積壓訂單繼續增加。

  • From a vertical perspective, infrastructure grew with continued strength in data solutions. Industrial and commercial resi each declined. Geographically, organic sales in Europe grew low single digits and Asia Pacific grew over 20% while North America declined low to mid-single digits.

    從垂直角度來看,隨著資料解決方案的持續增強,基礎架構也隨之成長。工業和商業地產均下降。從地理分佈來看,歐洲的有機銷售額成長了低個位數,亞太地區的有機銷售額成長了 20% 以上,而北美的有機銷售額則下降了低至中個位數。

  • Fourth quarter segment income was $100 million, up 18%. Return on sales of 21.5% increased 40 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong execution.

    第四季分部營收為 1 億美元,成長 18%。在強勁的執行力推動下,銷售回報率為 21.5%,比去年同期增加了 40 個基點。

  • Moving to Electrical & Fastening, now Electrical Connections, sales of $287 million were flat organically. Industrial and infrastructure each grew in the quarter. This was offset by a decline in commercial resi. Geographically, organic sales were flat in North America and Europe. Fourth quarter segment income was $84 million, down 1%. Return on sales was 29.4%, down 20 basis points, mainly due to mix.

    轉向電氣與緊固件(現為電氣連接),銷售額為 2.87 億美元,保持穩定。本季工業和基礎設施均實現成長。但商業不動產的下滑抵消了這一影響。從地理上看,北美和歐洲的有機銷售額持平。第四季分部營收為8,400萬美元,下降1%。銷售報酬率為 29.4%,下降 20 個基點,主要因為產品組合原因。

  • Now turn to slide 11 for a recap of our full year 2024 results. We ended the year with sales of $3 billion, up 13% or 2% organically. Acquisitions contributed 10 points to growth for the year. Adjusted operating income grew 15% to $652 million. Overall, return on sales expanded 50 basis points to 21.7%. Adjusted EPS for the full year was $2.49, up 7%. Free cash flow was $427 million, up 20% with 102% conversion of adjusted net income. This included higher CapEx investments for growth in capacity. In summary, 2024 was a year of strong performance and execution.

    現在轉到第 11 張投影片來回顧我們 2024 年全年業績。我們今年的銷售額達到了 30 億美元,有機成長了 13% 或 2%。收購為全年成長貢獻了 10 個百分點。調整後營業收入成長 15% 至 6.52 億美元。整體而言,銷售回報率擴大了 50 個基點,達到 21.7%。全年調整後每股收益為 2.49 美元,成長 7%。自由現金流為 4.27 億美元,成長 20%,調整後淨收入轉換率為 102%。這包括為提高產能而增加的資本支出。總而言之,2024 年是表現和執行力強勁的一年。

  • Now turning to slide 12, titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. We exited the year with $190 million of cash on hand and $600 million available on our revolver, putting us in a very strong liquidity position, even prior to the proceeds from the Thermal sale. Our debt stands at just under $2.2 billion, and we paid down approximately $100 million in the fourth quarter.

    現在轉到第 12 張投影片,標題為「資產負債表和現金流量」。截至年底,我們手頭上有 1.9 億美元現金,還有 6 億美元的循環信貸可供使用,即使在獲得 Thermal 出售收益之前,我們的流動性狀況也非常強勁。我們的債務略低於 22 億美元,我們在第四季償還了約 1 億美元。

  • Our strong free cash flow was driven by improvements in working capital, particularly inventory. We believe our healthy balance sheet and strong cash position provides us with ample capacity to execute on our growth strategy and create shareholder value.

    我們強勁的自由現金流是由營運資本(特別是庫存)的改善所推動的。我們相信,健康的資產負債表和強勁的現金狀況為我們提供了充足的能力來執行我們的成長策略並創造股東價值。

  • Turning to slide 13 where we outline our capital allocation priorities. We continue to prioritize growth and execute a balanced disciplined approach to capital allocation to deliver strong returns. We invested $74 million in CapEx in 2024, up 13%. This included expanding our footprint to increase our liquid cooling capacity 4x and support our growing backlog.

    轉到第 13 張投影片,我們概述了我們的資本配置優先事項。我們繼續優先考慮成長,並執行平衡、嚴謹的資本配置方法,以實現強勁的回報。我們在 2024 年的資本支出為 7,400 萬美元,成長 13%。這包括擴大我們的足跡,將我們的液體冷卻能力提高 4 倍,並支持我們不斷增長的積壓訂單。

  • We returned $227 million to shareholders in 2024, including share repurchases of $100 million, and we increased our quarterly dividend 5%.

    我們在 2024 年向股東返還了 2.27 億美元,其中包括 1 億美元的股票回購,我們將季度股息提高了 5%。

  • Looking ahead, we have significant optionality for further capital deployment. This year, we expect to have nearly $2 billion in available capital to deploy, including the net cash proceeds from the Thermal sale and our strong cash flow.

    展望未來,我們在進一步資本部署方面擁有很大的選擇權。今年,我們預計將有近 20 億美元的可用資本可供部署,包括熱能銷售的淨現金收益和我們強勁的現金流。

  • Moving to slide 14 and our 2025 outlook. We forecast another year of strong sales and earnings growth. Reported sales are expected to grow 8% to 10% with organic growth in the range of 4% to 6%. Acquisitions are expected to contribute approximately 5 points to growth. Our outlook for full year adjusted EPS is $2.98 to $3.08, which represents growth of 20% to 24%. And we expect free cash flow conversion to be between 95% and 100%.

    前往第 14 張投影片,了解我們的 2025 年展望。我們預測今年的銷售和獲利仍將保持強勁成長。預計銷售額將成長 8% 至 10%,有機成長率在 4% 至 6% 之間。預計收購將為成長貢獻約5個百分點。我們對全年調整後每股收益的預期為 2.98 美元至 3.08 美元,代表著 20% 至 24% 的成長。我們預計自由現金流轉換率將在 95% 至 100% 之間。

  • A few other important items to note for the year. First, we are assuming shares of 166 million, which includes share buybacks beyond dilution. And second, for modeling purposes, for now, we are assuming net interest expense of approximately $60 million. This assumes the net cash proceeds from the Thermal Management sale earn interest, and we've paid down a portion of the Trachte acquisition debt. As we have said, we intend to use these proceeds for acquisitions and share repurchases. And third, we expect our adjusted tax rate to now be approximately 22% versus 23% in 2024. And lastly, we continue to evaluate impact of potential tariffs and have not yet reflected them in our guidance.

    今年還需注意其他一些重要事項。首先,我們假設股票數量為 1.66 億股,其中包括稀釋後的股票回購。其次,出於建模目的,目前我們假設淨利息支出約為 6,000 萬美元。假設熱管理銷售的淨現金收益產生利息,並且我們已經償還了部分 Trachte 收購債務。正如我們所說,我們打算將這些收益用於收購和股票回購。第三,我們預期調整後的稅率現在約為 22%,而 2024 年則為 23%。最後,我們將繼續評估潛在關稅的影響,但尚未反映在我們的指導中。

  • A couple of additional 2025 assumptions of note. Corporate costs are forecasted to be approximately $100 million. These costs include some indirect costs that didn't get allocated to the Thermal Management sale that we are actively working to reduce and expect to come down through the year. And finishing up, we expect CapEx of $75 million to $80 million.

    另外還有幾個值得注意的 2025 年假設。預計公司成本約 1 億美元。這些成本包括一些未分配給熱管理銷售的間接成本,我們正在積極努力降低這些成本,預計全年將會下降。最後,我們預計資本支出為 7,500 萬至 8,000 萬美元。

  • Moving to slide 15 and our first quarter outlook. We expect organic sales growth in the range of flat to 2%, and for earnings per share, we expect adjusted EPS in the range of $0.65 to $0.67, up 7% to 10% year-over-year. Wrapping up, our team delivered a strong year and I believe we are well positioned for a great 2025.

    轉到第 15 張投影片,介紹我們的第一季展望。我們預計有機銷售額成長率將在持平至 2% 之間,每股收益方面,我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 0.65 美元至 0.67 美元之間,年增 7% 至 10%。總而言之,我們的團隊度過了出色的一年,我相信我們已經為迎接偉大的 2025 年做好了準備。

  • With that, please turn to slide 16 and I will now turn the call back to Beth.

    說完這些,請翻到第 16 張投影片,我現在將電話轉回給 Beth。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Sara. Key to our success has been our people and our culture and making nVent a great place to work. We are focused on delivering for our customers and having a positive impact on our communities. On this slide, you can see numerous awards and recognition that we've received as we focus on our people and building a more sustainable and electrified world.

    謝謝你,薩拉。我們成功的關鍵是我們的員工和文化,這使 nVent 成為一個優秀的工作場所。我們專注於為客戶提供服務並對社區產生正面影響。在這張投影片上,您可以看到我們在關注員工和建立更永續和電氣化的世界過程中所獲得的無數獎項和認可。

  • For the first time last year, we were recognized as one of the world's most ethical companies by Ethisphere. We also earned a silver sustainability rating from EcoVadis, and we were certified as a Great Place to Work for the third consecutive year. These are just a few of the many awards and recognitions we have received. I'm extremely proud of our nVent team and everything we have accomplished. And there's always more that we can do.

    去年,我們首次被 Ethisphere 評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一。我們還獲得了 EcoVadis 的銀級永續發展評級,並連續第三年被認證為「最佳工作場所」。這些只是我們所獲得的眾多獎項和認可中的一部分。我對我們的 nVent 團隊和我們所取得的一切成就感到非常自豪。我們還能做更多的事情。

  • Wrapping up on slide 17. 2024 was another year of strong performance for nVent while transforming the portfolio. We are well positioned with the electrification of everything, sustainability and digitalization trends. And we expect 2025 to be another year of strong sales, earnings and cash flow. Our future is bright.

    總結投影片 17.2024 年是 nVent 在轉型投資組合的同時又一個表現強勁的一年。我們在萬物電氣化、永續發展和數位化趨勢方面佔據有利地位。我們預計 2025 年將是銷售、獲利和現金流強勁的一年。我們的未來是光明的。

  • With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to start Q&A.

    說完這些,我現在將電話轉給接線生開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員指示)高盛的喬·里奇。

  • Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

    Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

  • So maybe why don't we just start off with just the organic growth expectations? So a little bit of a slower start to the year on that 0% to 2% but then ultimately accelerating as the year progresses. I know the comps certainly get easier. But Beth, maybe you can just kind of walk us through your expectations? And I'm particularly interested in looking at slide 6 on the industrial and commercial businesses and what you're seeing in those businesses today that gives you confidence that you will see organic growth accelerate as the year progresses.

    那為什麼我們不直接從有機成長預期開始呢?因此,今年年初的成長速度會稍微慢一些,從 0% 到 2%,但隨著時間的推移,成長速度最終會加速。我知道比賽肯定會變得更容易。但是 Beth,也許您可以向我們介紹一下您的期望?我特別感興趣的是第 6 張幻燈片中關於工業和商業業務的內容,以及您今天在這些業務中看到的情況,這些情況讓您有信心隨著時間的推移,有機增長將加速。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thank you, Joe, for the question. So you are correct. Last year, our strongest quarter was Q1 so we're lapping some strong growth from a year ago. A couple of things when we think of our outlook is, first, we have growing backlogs in both our data solutions and power utilities verticals. And so we see that backlog growing and it is ramping, which we believe will also progress through our sales over the course of the year.

    好的。謝謝喬提出這個問題。所以你是對的。去年,我們表現最強勁的季度是第一季度,因此我們比去年同期實現了強勁成長。當我們考慮我們的前景時,有幾件事是:首先,我們在數據解決方案和電力公用事業垂直領域的積壓訂單不斷增加。因此,我們看到積壓訂單不斷增長,並且正在加速成長,我們相信這一增長也將透過全年的銷售實現。

  • The next thing I would point out is when we -- certainly, we ended the year with less organic growth than we were expecting, and as I commented, that is given the distribution effect of management of inventory through year-end. Now orders have continued to be positive, but we see things ramping as we go through the year.

    接下來我想指出的是,我們——當然,我們年底的有機成長低於預期,正如我所說,這是考慮到年底庫存管理的分配效應。目前訂單量持續保持正成長,但我們看到隨著時間的推移,訂單量將不斷增加。

  • And I will say, as we talk to our sales teams and our channel partners, one thing we are seeing is our funnels build and particularly with small CapEx type projects. And so we're seeing that pervasive across many different industrial applications and verticals.

    我想說的是,當我們與銷售團隊和通路合作夥伴交談時,我們看到的一件事就是我們的管道正在建立,特別是小型資本支出類型的項目。我們看到這種現象普遍存在於許多不同的工業應用和垂直領域。

  • So it's those areas that we look at infrastructure continuing to be the strongest for us and backlogs that have been growing, industrial improving, a funnel supporting that, mega projects, as we've always talked about. We're a little later in the cycle, but we believe those, we start to see momentum there. And we expect commercial resi to improve over the course of the year.

    因此,我們認為這些領域的基礎設施對我們來說仍然是最強大的,積壓訂單不斷增加,工業不斷改善,形成了一個支援管道,還有大型項目,就像我們一直在談論的那樣。我們處於週期的稍晚一些階段,但我們相信,我們開始看到動力。我們預計商業地產市場將在今年內改善。

  • Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

    Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

  • That's helpful. I should have clarified also, just in terms of pricing for the year as well, what's embedded in your assumption?

    這很有幫助。我還應該澄清一下,就年度定價而言,您的假設是什麼?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Joe, I would say, late last year, we continue to expect that organic growth of 4% to 6% to be more heavily weighted towards volume. But price does play an important factor in that overall equation of managing price plus productivity offsetting inflation, so we would expect that price to be positive in 2025.

    是的。喬,我想說,去年年底,我們繼續預計 4% 至 6% 的有機成長將更多地取決於銷量。但在管理價格加上生產力抵消通貨膨脹的總體方程式中,價格確實起著重要作用,因此我們預計 2025 年價格將為正值。

  • Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

    Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then just one last one. Slide 8, love the breakout of the core technology platforms. Also great that you're in a position now to be very front-footed with capital deployment. So as you're thinking about M&A, is it logical to think that these are kind of like the areas that you would potentially invest in? Or are you looking at potentially other platforms, other ways to maybe just increase the breadth of your portfolio?

    好的,太好了。還有最後一個。第 8 張投影片,喜歡核心技術平台的突破。同樣令人高興的是,您現在能夠在資本部署方面處於非常領先的地位。那麼,當您考慮併購時,您是否有理由認為這些就是您可能投資的領域?或者您正在考慮其他平台或其他方式來擴大您的投資組合的廣度?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So the slide 8 was meant to be a look at how we're investing organically in our new product areas to drive differentiation. But as we think about M&A, we always say we look at high-growth verticals and great products. So we could add to this product portfolio. We're very focused on growing in that infrastructure vertical. And so as you know, we have a flywheel that is great products that we can scale and invest in to grow pointed in that high-growth verticals. And so we're going to continue to be applying discipline within that framework.

    是的。因此,第 8 張投影片旨在展示我們如何在新產品領域進行有機投資以推動差異化。但當我們考慮併購時,我們總是說我們會專注於高成長的垂直產業和優秀的產品。因此我們可以補充這個產品組合。我們非常注重基礎設施垂直領域的發展。如您所知,我們擁有一個飛輪,它是優秀的產品,我們能夠擴大規模並進行投資,以在高成長垂直領域實現成長。因此,我們將繼續在該框架內執行紀律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Maybe just to start with the operating margin guidance. So it looks maybe as if operating margins are down in the first quarter and then sort of flattish for the year as a whole. Wanted to check if that was roughly correct. And any main divergences between the margin performance year-on-year of the two segments that we should be aware of?

    或許只是從營業利益率指引開始。因此看起來,第一季的營業利潤率可能有所下降,而全年的營業利潤率則可能持平。想檢查一下這是否大致正確。我們應該注意這兩個部門的利潤率與年比表現之間有哪些主要差異?

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So let me start maybe with Q1. So overall, from a Q1 perspective, you're right. Embedded in that overall Q1 guide, we do see return on sales down modestly.

    是的。那麼讓我從 Q1 開始。因此總的來說,從第一季的角度來看,你是對的。從第一季的整體指南來看,我們確實看到銷售回報率略有下降。

  • And a couple of things I would point out, Julian. One would just be our corporate costs do tend to be at our highest, if you will, in Q1. And as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we do have some indirect costs that didn't go with that Thermal sale, so that's just going to take us a little bit of time to work that down to the course of the year.

    朱利安,我想指出幾點。一是我們的經營成本在第一季往往達到最高。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,我們確實有一些間接成本沒有隨著 Thermal 銷售而產生,所以我們需要花一點時間才能在全年內完成這些成本。

  • I think the second thing I would say, we are and continue to invest in our infrastructure vertical, particularly data solutions and power utilities. And as Beth said, our backlog that is there and continues to build is giving us that confidence in that second half growth. And so we continue to invest here in Q1 in anticipation of that growth there in the second half.

    我想說的第二件事是,我們正在並將繼續投資於我們的垂直基礎設施,特別是數據解決方案和電力公用事業。正如貝絲所說,我們現有的和不斷增加的積壓訂單使我們對下半年的成長充滿信心。因此,我們繼續在第一季進行投資,以期在下半年實現成長。

  • And I think the only other thing I would say in Q1 here is price/cost, we do expect that to ramp in Q2 and more the back half so we're seeing a bit of impact there overall. But I would end by just saying, overall, we expect Q1 earnings per share at that midpoint to grow roughly 8%. For the full year, our guidance really implies in that kind of flat to up modestly.

    我認為在第一季我要說的另一件事是價格/成本,我們確實預計它會在第二季及下半年上升,因此我們總體上會看到一些影響。但最後我想說的是,總體而言,我們預計第一季每股收益中位數將成長約 8%。對於全年而言,我們的預期實際上是持平或小幅上漲。

  • And maybe one other thing to point out beyond just the investment profile would just be Trachte. We do expect with beginning to lap that in kind of mid-July. It's contributing nicely to the top and the bottom line. But from a return on sales perspective, that does have an impact on that overall return on sales. But embedded in the guidance is a good solid drop-through on that overall volume growth and top line growth expected for the year.

    除了投資概況之外,也許還有一點要指出,那就是 Trachte。我們確實預計在七月中旬開始實現這一目標。它對營收和淨利潤都有很大的貢獻。但從銷售報酬率的角度來看,這確實會對整體銷售報酬率產生影響。但該指引中包含了對今年預計整體銷售成長和營收成長的大幅下降。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe just one follow-up on the revenue side. You've given a lot of very good color on revenue. But just to understand what's embedded for the non-infrastructure pieces, I can see slide 6, the sort of full year laid out there. Just wondered, that improvement because it looks as if the non-infrastructure pieces are down year-on-year in Q1, partly comps and then they're expected to move higher through the year. Just wondered when you're thinking about that, how much of that improvement is comps year-on-year and normal seasonality versus some fundamental improvement? And tied to that, I guess, is whether any of that order strength in Q4 was in non-infrastructure verticals.

    這很有幫助。然後可能只需要在收入方面進行一次跟進。您對收入給了許多非常好的解釋。但只是為了了解非基礎設施部分的內容,我可以看到第 6 張投影片,上面列出了全年的情況。只是想知道,這種改善是因為看起來非基礎設施部分在第一季同比有所下降,部分同比有所下降,預計全年將會走高。只是想知道,當您考慮這個問題時,這種改善有多少是同比和正常季節性的改善,有多少是一些基本面的改善?我想,與此相關的是,第四季的訂單強度是否來自非基礎設施垂直領域。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So as we did see our orders improve in Q4, we did see positive orders in non-infrastructure. And so as I mentioned, like take industrial, for example, we're seeing smaller projects, CapEx across many different verticals in our funnel, which we believe over the -- will pick up momentum over the course of the year and translate to orders and sales.

    是的。因此,我們確實看到第四季度的訂單有所改善,非基礎設施領域的訂單也出現了積極的增長。正如我所提到的,以工業為例,我們看到規模較小的項目,資本支出涵蓋我們管道中的許多不同垂直領域,我們相信這些項目將在今年內加速發展,並轉化為訂單和銷售。

  • When it comes to some of the other areas, we certainly do expect commercial to improve as a vertical over the course of the year. But as we've looked at this, we just think it's -- things start to progress. Some of it's a comp in Q1, but given backlogs and infrastructure and given momentum in projects that we're working on, we generally see things improving over the course of the year.

    至於其他一些領域,我們確實預計商業領域在今年會作為一個垂直領域得到改善。但當我們審視這一點時,我們只是認為──事情開始取得進展。其中一些是第一季的比較,但考慮到積壓和基礎設施以及我們正在進行的專案的勢頭,我們總體上認為情況會在一年內有所改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • I have a question broadly about potential implications from DeepSeek and just any feedback you've heard from your customers and partners. And really specifically, what might be the impact on liquid cooling if they can use older generation AI chips? Do the thermal loads and thermal load assumptions change? Or is it binary that once you're using AI chips, you just have to use liquid cooling and the differences in thermal loads don't really matter? But there's a lot to unpack there, but any color there would be helpful.

    我有一個廣泛的問題,關於 DeepSeek 的潛在影響以及您從客戶和合作夥伴那裡聽到的任何反饋。具體來說,如果他們可以使用老一代的 AI 晶片,會對液體冷卻產生什麼影響?熱負荷和熱負荷假設是否改變?或者說,一旦你使用 AI 晶片,你就必須使用液體冷卻,而熱負荷的差異並不重要?但那裡有很多東西需要解開,但任何顏色都會有幫助。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Deane, thank you for the question. I think maybe the first thing I'll start with is recall, we've been doing liquid cooling in data centers before all these GPU chips were even launched. And so therefore, we were finding applications in some of these other chips early on because depending on the hyperscaler and their system design and their heat loads, they were trying to get more efficient to be using liquid cooling.

    好的。迪恩,謝謝你的提問。我想也許我首先要回想一下,在所有這些 GPU 晶片推出之前,我們就已經在資料中心進行液體冷卻了。因此,我們很早就在其他一些晶片中找到了應用,因為根據超大規模器及其係統設計和熱負荷,他們試圖更有效地使用液體冷卻。

  • So now as we go forward, there's going to be different ways and more efficient ways around AI. But our view is liquid cooling is still very important. It also drives energy efficiency, and what we've heard from our customers is that the commitment to CapEx investments is there and not slowing down. So we feel that there is going to continue to be demand for liquid cooling solutions.

    因此,隨著我們不斷前進,將會有更多不同且更有效的方式來應對人工智慧。但我們認為液體冷卻仍然非常重要。它還可以提高能源效率,我們從客戶那裡聽說,對資本支出投資的承諾是存在的,而且不會放緩。因此我們認為液體冷卻解決方案的需求將持續存在。

  • As you know, the demand for power with these data centers is significant, and liquid cooling is one way to offer energy efficiency. So we believe there's continued strength and opportunity here as we go forward. And if anything, the innovation that we see with AI, I think, will drive further adoption and scale, which again, will imply that, that infrastructure is so important to be built out and liquid cooling plays a really key role.

    眾所周知,這些資料中心對電力的需求很大,而液體冷卻是提高能源效率的一種方法。因此,我們相信,隨著我們不斷前進,這裡仍將擁有持續的力量和機會。而且,我認為,人工智慧的創新將推動進一步的採用和規模化,這再次意味著,基礎設施的建設非常重要,而液體冷卻起著真正關鍵的作用。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • That's great to hear. That's exactly what I was looking for, especially the feedback from your customers and partners. And just a related follow-up question. So you've gone through this process to quadruple capacity in liquid cooling last year, finishing that. Do you still need to add test capacity? Because there was some question that you hadn't quadrupled it there. And could you give us any sense directionally what your utilization rates entering '25 are on your liquid cooling capacity?

    我很高興聽到這個消息。這正是我所尋找的,尤其是來自您的客戶和合作夥伴的回饋。這只是一個相關的後續問題。所以你們去年經歷了這個過程,將液體冷卻的容量提高了四倍,完成了。您還需要增加測試能力嗎?因為有人質疑你沒有增加四倍。您能否告訴我們進入25年後您的液體冷卻能力的使用率是多少?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So Deane, I would say this, we're continuing that expansion because remember, when we 4x'd the capacity, some of that was the space that we needed, and we're continuing to invest in the lines and building that out. Our lab and testing capability was progressing after that. And we're in that phase right now, building that out. So we're continuing to make investments in that capacity expansion, and we're continuing to make investments in innovation.

    所以 Deane,我想說的是,我們將繼續擴張,因為記得,當我們將容量增加 4 倍時,其中一些就是我們所需要的空間,我們將繼續投資於生產線並進行建造。此後,我們的實驗室和測試能力不斷進步。我們現在正處於這個階段,正在建設中。因此,我們將繼續對產能擴張進行投資,並將繼續對創新進行投資。

  • And this is going to be a very strong year of new product launches in that data solutions area. So a lot of investment going in here and we just see the opportunity and the growth in front of us, so we're very excited about it.

    今年將是數據解決方案領域新產品發布非常強勁的一年。這裡有大量投資,我們看到了眼前的機會和成長,所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Maybe just starting with a little bit more color around what you saw with respect to channel inventory. You mentioned that, that was a factor in 4Q relative to your initial expectations. How do you feel current channel inventory stands today relative to what's needed for next year?

    也許只是從對通路庫存的了解開始,稍微豐富一下內容。您提到,這是第四季度相對於您最初預期的一個因素。您認為目前的通路庫存與明年所需的庫存相比如何?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think as we progressed through Q4, we certainly saw the order patterns drop off in that third month of the quarter. And in a way, that was really the adjustments in inventory as everyone was managing working capital, et cetera. But our orders have picked up through January. And I think that we'll start to see things -- because our sell-out has been positive, I think we'll start to see improvements as we go through this year.

    嗯,我認為隨著第四季度的進展,我們確實看到訂單模式在該季度的第三個月下降。從某種程度上來說,這實際上是庫存的調整,因為每個人都在管理營運資金等等。但一月我們的訂單量有所回升。而且我認為我們會開始看到一些事情——因為我們的銷售情況一直很好,我認為隨著今年的到來,我們會開始看到一些進步。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. And then with respect to tariffs, I know a lot up in the air right now, but could you help us a little bit by maybe sizing your exposure from a COGS perspective to Mexico, Canada, and China?

    好的,明白了。關於關稅,我知道現在有很多問題尚待解決,但您能否幫我們一點忙,從銷貨成本的角度來評估您對墨西哥、加拿大和中國的風險敞口?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, let's first start with China. We have very little that we import from China. And so in our view, with the announced tariffs, it's really minimal impact and we have it covered. We have a plan when it comes to looking at Mexico and Canada. Certainly, we've got a good track record on how we've managed tariffs previously through supply chain management and through pricing actions. And I think all of those things are actions that we're currently working. And I'd like to say, really, with Canada, that's minimal, and for Mexico, that's in the low 10s when we look at our COGS structure.

    好吧,我們先從中國開始。我們從中國進口的商品非常少。因此,我們認為,宣布的關稅影響真的很小,而且我們已經採取措施了。在考慮墨西哥和加拿大時我們有一個計劃。當然,我們之前透過供應鏈管理和定價行動在關稅管理方面有著良好的記錄。我認為所有這些都是我們目前正在採取的行動。我想說,對於加拿大來說,這個比例真的很低,而對於墨西哥來說,當我們看我們的銷貨成本結構時,這個比例在 10% 以下。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

    傑夫‧斯普拉格 (Jeff Sprague),垂直研究公司。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • I was wondering if we could dig a little bit more into the order commentary up low 10s, I think, in Q4 is nothing to sneeze at. And then Beth, you said that this continued into January. I think the comps were relatively easy, but can you sort of unpack that a little bit what the comp was? And anything in particular in terms of the sub verticals that stand out driving that growth?

    我想知道我們是否可以更深入地研究訂單評論,我認為,在第四季度,訂單評論高出 10% 是件不容小覷的事情。然後貝絲,你說這種情況持續到了一月。我認為這些比較相對容易,但是你能稍微解釋一下這些比較是什麼嗎?在推動這一成長的子垂直產業方面,有哪些特別突出的因素?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, certainly, as we looked at Q4, we saw some good infrastructure orders but we also saw orders across the board, right? So it wasn't just all infrastructure, it was across the board. And I think as we get into Q1, again, we're seeing some good broad-based orders across the portfolio.

    嗯,當然,當我們回顧第四季度時,我們看到了一些良好的基礎設施訂單,但我們也看到了全面的訂單,對嗎?所以這不僅涉及所有基礎設施,而是涉及各個方面。我認為,隨著我們進入第一季度,我們再次看到整個投資組合中出現了一些良好的廣泛訂單。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • And then just thinking about maybe a little bit of a follow-up to Nicole's question, is there a way to kind of quantify the top line headwind in Q4 by sizing the magnitude of the difference in the sell-in versus the sell-out?

    然後想想也許可以對妮可的問題進行一點跟進,有沒有辦法通過衡量賣出量與賣出量之間的差異幅度來量化第四季度的營收逆風?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, we don't normally comment on that but I would say this. What we saw in terms of the inventory reductions or just adjustments, I want to say, in our distribution channel was more than what we expected. Because as you know, we expect to see some positive growth and we're just slightly negative to flat. And so that really was the impact that we saw in the quarter.

    不,我們通常不會對此發表評論,但我要這麼說。我想說的是,我們在分銷管道中看到的庫存減少或調整超出了我們的預期。因為如你所知,我們預計會看到一些積極的成長,但結果只是略有下降到持平。這確實就是我們在本季看到的影響。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just maybe one last one for me on price. So a little bit negative again here in Q4 but you're expecting it to go positive. Just wondering if the Q4 weakness or I don't know if you call it weakness but slightly negative is still kind of in Enclosures. And what drives it positive in 2025? Is it just sort of blanket beginning of the year sort of price increases or how are you managing price in the current environment?

    好的。最後再問一下價格問題。因此,第四季的情況再次出現了一些負面情況,但你預計它會轉為正面。我只是想知道第四季度的疲軟或我不知道您是否稱之為疲軟但略微負面的狀況是否仍然有點隱晦。那麼,什麼因素會使其在 2025 年取得積極進展呢?這只是年初的一種全面價格上漲?

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So Joe, I would say in terms of Q4, we continue to see pricing slightly negative in Enclosures and slightly positive in an overall EFS standpoint, and that's for the year. But I would say that to point out, even as we saw modest price declines in Enclosures, we saw good ROS expansion. So the team has done a really nice job managing some of our product simplification programs and efforts and productivity to continue to show that nice ROS expansion overall.

    是的。因此喬,我想說,就第四季而言,我們繼續看到機櫃價格略有下跌,而從整體 EFS 角度來看則略有上漲,這是今年的情況。但我想指出的是,即使我們看到外殼價格小幅下跌,我們也看到了良好的 ROS 擴張。因此,團隊在管理我們的一些產品簡化程序和工作以及生產力方面做得非常出色,從而繼​​續整體上展現出良好的 ROS 擴展。

  • Clearly, as we walk into 2025, we do expect 2025 to be another inflationary year. Labor continues to be a big portion of that. But as Beth mentioned, we also are working through the China tariffs. It's minimal for us, but nonetheless, it's something that we've got to work to help offset here. And so with some of that inflation as a backdrop as we would customarily do, we continue to look for pricing actions to help to offset that.

    顯然,當我們邁入 2025 年時,我們確實預計 2025 年將是另一個通貨膨脹的一年。勞動力仍佔其中很大一部分。但正如貝絲所提到的,我們也在努力解決中國關稅問題。這對我們來說微不足道,但儘管如此,我們必須努力彌補。因此,正如我們慣常的做法,在通膨背景下,我們繼續尋求定價行動來幫助抵消通膨。

  • I'd probably end by saying, look, we continue to look at the price plus productivity to offset that inflation. And I think we've got a nice productivity funnel as we enter into the year that's broad-based, covers factories, DCs, transportation. We're putting an extra focus on indirect spend as well, and again, some of our continued simplification efforts around business transformation. So we're going to work the combination of that price plus productivity to offset that inflation as we have historically.

    我最後想說的是,看,我們繼續關注價格加上生產力來抵消通貨膨脹。我認為,隨著我們進入新的一年,我們已經有了一個很好的生產力漏斗,它範圍廣泛,涵蓋工廠、配送中心和運輸。我們也更加關注間接支出,並且再次繼續在業務轉型方面做出一些簡化努力。因此,我們將像歷史上所做的那樣,利用價格和生產力相結合的方式來抵消通貨膨脹。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    奈傑爾·科(Nigel Coe),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • I just want to go back to maybe a question that was asked earlier on and really just try and delineate between infrastructure and the rest of the portfolio because it feels like infrastructure is driving all the growth. And I just want to make sure that when we look at the industrial, residential, and commercial verticals, it feels like your plan is flat to maybe low single-digit growth. I just want to make sure that's how to think about it.

    我只是想回到之前提出的問題,並真正嘗試區分基礎設施和投資組合的其餘部分,因為感覺基礎設施正在推動所有的成長。我只是想確保,當我們審視工業、住宅和商業垂直領域時,感覺你的計劃是持平的,甚至可能是低個位數的成長。我只是想確保這是應該思考的方式。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, as you look at our Q4 performance, certainly, infrastructure was a big driver of our growth. So that -- if you look at the breakout by what we said on slide 10, right, however we did see industrial grow in the quarter for our Electrical & Fastening Solutions business. Now some of this is also what we're seeing that impact of orders coming through distribution.

    嗯,當你看看我們第四季的業績時,你會發現基礎設施確實是我們成長的一大動力。所以 - 如果您看一下我們在第 10 張投影片上所說的細分情況,那麼,我們確實看到本季我們的電氣和緊固解決方案業務實現了工業成長。現在,我們也看到了透過分銷產生的訂單帶來的影響。

  • But as we go forward and we look at our outlook, we expect low double-digit growth in infrastructure. So yes, infrastructure is certainly the strongest growth driver for us going forward. However, we do expect both industrial to grow low single digits to mid-single digits is the vertical outlook and commercial is low single digits. And so infrastructure for us and where our backlogs are will certainly contribute more strongly to growth than the other areas.

    但放眼未來,我們預期基礎設施的成長率將維持在低兩位數。所以是的,基礎設施無疑是我們未來最強勁的成長動力。然而,我們確實預計工業成長將達到低個位數到中等個位數(垂直前景)並且商業成長也將達到低個位數。因此,對我們來說,基礎設施和我們的積壓訂單肯定會比其他領域對成長做出更大的貢獻。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Okay. And I'm guessing residential, which is obviously very small for you guys, will be down probably mid-single digits, okay. That's really helpful.

    好的。而且我猜住宅銷量,對你們來說顯然很小,可能會下降個位數的中間值,好吧。這真的很有幫助。

  • And then maybe just double clicking to Trachte because it feels like -- well, certainly, the contribution to 4Q from acquisitions was a bit better. So I'm just wondering, I know Trachte isn't organic until the second half of the year, but maybe just double click into what you're seeing in Trachte in terms of growth for 2025, and perhaps just talk about some of the verticals where you're seeing that growth.

    然後可能只需雙擊 Trachte,因為感覺就像 - 嗯,當然,收購對第四季度的貢獻要好一些。所以我只是想知道,我知道 Trachte 直到今年下半年才會實現有機增長,但也許只需雙擊一下您對 2025 年 Trachte 增長的看法,然後談談您看到這種增長的一些垂直領域。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right. So as we often like to say, Trachte is a new growth platform for us with control buildings. And we've seen nice continued backlog growth and certainly the strength of sales there. And much like we've thought about Enclosures and you think about our ability to provide enclosures for various applications and specifications, this is how we think about control buildings. That it plays in utilities, it plays in data centers, it supports backup power, it supports energy storage. There's various opportunities for us to expand the control buildings platform. So we're seeing -- we see good momentum in this platform and think it will be a strong contributor and driver to us in that broader infrastructure vertical.

    好的。正如我們常說的那樣,Trachte 是我們擁有控制建築的一個新的成長平台。我們看到積壓訂單持續良好成長,且銷售勢頭強勁。就像我們考慮過外殼以及您考慮過我們為各種應用和規格提供外殼的能力一樣,這就是我們對控制建築的看法。它在公用事業中發揮作用,它在資料中心發揮作用,它支援備用電源,它支援能源儲存。我們有各種機會來擴展控制建築平台。所以我們看到—我們看到這個平台的良好發展勢頭,並認為它將為我們在更廣泛的基礎設施垂直領域做出強有力的貢獻並推動我們前進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc.

    傑夫·哈蒙德,KeyBanc。

  • Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

    Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

  • Just on the liquid cooling business, a lot of dynamic movement there and a lot of new entrants. So I'm just wondering, as you look near term, what are you seeing in terms of win rates, pricing in the backlog? And any kind of early traction from this NVIDIA collaboration you announced?

    就液體冷卻業務而言,有許多動態運動,也有很多新進者。所以我只是想知道,從短期來看,您在中標率、積壓定價方面看到了什麼?您所宣布的與 NVIDIA 的合作有何早期進展?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, maybe I would just speak more broadly to what we're seeing in liquid cooling. So we continue to build out our portfolio of solutions, including where we have offerings that we're working with NVIDIA. That has -- certainly for some customers, they want to have that NVIDIA partnership and so that's a positive to us. And I would just say that we're continuing to see the existing customer content grow as well as adding new customers.

    好吧,也許我會更廣泛地談談我們在液體冷卻方面看到的情況。因此,我們繼續擴展我們的解決方案組合,其中包括我們與 NVIDIA 合作提供的產品。對於一些客戶來說,他們確實希望與 NVIDIA 建立合作夥伴關係,因此這對我們來說是有利的。我想說的是,我們看到現有客戶內容不斷成長,新客戶也不斷增加。

  • And a big focus for us in 2025 is the launch of several new product offerings, which I think we expand our solutions and application set. So not just hyperscalers but enterprise and colos and looking at some integrator type customers as well through distribution. So we're continuing to see the backlog build, and I think we have very strong momentum going into 2025.

    2025 年我們的一個重點是推出幾款新產品,我認為這將擴展我們的解決方案和應用範圍。因此,不僅是超大規模企業,還有企業和託管公司,還可以透過分銷來尋找一些整合商類型的客戶。因此,我們繼續看到積壓訂單的增加,我認為我們在 2025 年將擁有非常強勁的勢頭。

  • Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

    Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful, Beth. Just maybe back to capital allocation, just talk about actionability of the pipeline. And I don't know, what do you have baked in for buybacks? And what's kind of the thought of flexing that if deals don't come through?

    好的。這很有幫助,貝絲。也許回到資本配置,只談管道的可操作性。我不知道您為回購做了哪些準備?如果交易沒有達成,那麼會有什麼想法呢?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, let me first start on our acquisition pipeline. I've said this on previous calls. I think we have a very robust pipeline and opportunities. And I also have said, you never can control the timing of deals. But I do believe that our goal is always to do a couple of deals if we can over the course of the year. And I believe our pipeline is strong and healthy, and we have a very disciplined approach to what we go after and we also look at our ability to execute that well.

    好吧,首先讓我開始介紹我們的收購管道。我在之前的通話中已經說過這​​件事。我認為我們擁有非常強大的管道和機會。我也說過,你永遠無法控制交易的時機。但我確實相信,如果可以的話,我們的目標始終是在今年內達成幾筆交易。我相信我們的產品線是強大而健康的,我們對所追求的目標採取非常嚴謹的方法,同時也關注我們良好執行的能力。

  • So we believe, as a priority for capital allocation, the growth, including acquisitions, are a key priority for us. And we'd like to think we're able to execute on that over the course of the year. And I'll turn it over to Sara to talk about buybacks.

    因此,我們認為,作為資本配置的優先事項,包括收購在內的成長是我們的首要任務。我們希望能夠在今年內實現這一目標。接下來我將把話題交給薩拉討論回購事宜。

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I would just say our outlook that we provided this morning really as a baseline reflects two things: one, an expectation of share buybacks. Roughly $200 million, which aligns to that guidance of 166 million shares versus our 168 million in 2024. And then just for modeling purposes, the guidance reflects that lower interest related to the interest earned on the proceeds as well as the paydown of Trachte acquisition debt in part.

    是的。我只想說,我們今天早上提供的展望實際上作為基準反映了兩件事:第一,對股票回購的預期。約 2 億美元,與 1.66 億股的預期一致,而 2024 年則為 1.68 億股。然後,僅出於建模目的,該指南反映了與收益所賺取的利息以及部分 Trachte 收購債務的償還相關的較低利息。

  • So I think the important thing to point out is that if you just fold in the net proceeds of about $1.4 billion with our 2024 EBITDA and our net debt, we are sitting at less than 1 times in terms of our net debt to EBITDA leverage. So it just emphasizes the point that we have ample capacity to go and deploy capital in 2025 and create that shareholder return and that value creation.

    因此,我認為需要指出的重要一點是,如果將約 14 億美元的淨收益與我們的 2024 年 EBITDA 和淨債務相加,我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率還不到 1 倍。因此,這只是強調了一點,即我們有足夠的能力在 2025 年部署資本並創造股東回報和價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Drab, William Blair.

    布萊恩·德拉布,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Brian Drab - Analyst

    Brian Drab - Analyst

  • I think that you said for power solutions, the expectation is for double-digit growth in 2025. I wonder if you could be any more specific on that and remind us what was the growth for power solutions for the full year '24.

    我認為您說過,對於電源解決方案來說,預計到 2025 年將實現兩位數的成長。我想知道您是否可以更具體地說明這一點,並提醒我們 24 年全年電源解決方案的成長。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. On our -- I think on our chart where we talked about growing in infrastructure and just saying that now, power utilities is about 10% of our overall sales, double-digit growth is being driven by -- and certainly, the Trachte acquisition is a very strong contributor to that as we go forward. So we're looking at not only that acquisition but then some of our core products that are in that utilities segment growing as well supported by our backlog.

    是的。在我們的圖表上,我們談到了基礎設施的成長,現在電力公用事業約占我們整體銷售額的 10%,兩位數的成長是由——當然,Trachte 的收購對我們未來的發展貢獻巨大。因此,我們不僅關注此次收購,還關注公用事業領域的一些核心產品,這些產品也在我們積壓訂單的支持下不斷成長。

  • Brian Drab - Analyst

    Brian Drab - Analyst

  • Okay. I guess, for data -- I guess, I should call it data solutions, that 20% of sales was up how much in '24? And I'm just wondering, like can you say that double digit? Or I assume you're not thinking like 10% or 11% there. How will that proceed?

    好的。我想,對於數據——我想,我應該稱之為數據解決方案,2024 年 20% 的銷售額成長了多少?我只是好奇,你能說出兩位數嗎?或者我假設你沒有想到 10% 或 11%。事情將會如何進行?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. So we did say that for data solutions that we grew 30% last year and we're expecting double-digit growth again in 2025.

    好的。因此,我們確實說過,去年數據解決方案的成長率為 30%,預計 2025 年將再次實現兩位數的成長。

  • Brian Drab - Analyst

    Brian Drab - Analyst

  • Okay. I'm trying to get you -- get a sense of if we're going to continue better than 20% or not but I won't press you further, I guess, on that. And on Trachte, just to put a finer point on the contribution from growth and potential contribution. I mean, this is probably, what, about a $300 million revenue business now that's growing very strong double digits. It seems like this is a business that could contribute even, I don't know, 150 basis points or 2 points to the organic revenue growth in the second half of the year. Am I on the right track thinking of it that way?

    好的。我試著讓你了解我們是否會繼續保持 20% 以上的成長,但我想,在這一點上我不會再向你施壓了。關於 Trachte,只是想更詳細地闡述成長貢獻和潛在貢獻。我的意思是,這可能是一個大約 3 億美元的收入業務,並且目前正以非常強勁的兩位數成長。看起來這項業務甚至可以為今年下半年的有機收入成長貢獻 150 個基點或 2 個基點。我這樣想是對的嗎?

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, maybe just to frame it, we had said coming into 2024 there that it's roughly a $250 million business. So you can imply that when we say strong double digits, it's contributing nicely to the top line and really exceeded our guidance even in Q4. We expected it to contribute 9 points, it contributed 10 points to growth. So we do expect that power utilities and data centers as part of that Trachte business to continue to be part of that infrastructure vertical that Beth outlined and contribute nicely to that back half.

    好吧,也許只是為了說明一下,我們曾說過,到 2024 年,這將是一項價值約 2.5 億美元的業務。因此,你可以暗示,當我們說強勁的兩位數時,它對營收做出了很大的貢獻,甚至在第四季度也確實超出了我們的預期。我們預計它會貢獻 9 個百分點,但它為成長貢獻了 10 個百分點。因此,我們確實希望,作為 Trachte 業務的一部分,電力公用事業和資料中心將繼續成為 Beth 概述的基礎設施垂直領域的一部分,並為後半部分做出良好貢獻。

  • Maybe one other point if I just kind of zoom out for a moment and think about the data solutions and the power utilities piece. Our backlog will exit 2024 with a backlog of $750 million, which is up meaningfully from the prior year. Now some of that is the Trachte backlog folding in, but it's also that year-over-year Trachte backlog building as well as that data solutions building as well. So again, we have good visibility in that backlog as we look at that back half coupled with the demand that we're seeing increasing as well that's giving us confidence in that back half growth.

    如果我暫時放遠一點,思考一下數據解決方案和電力公用事業部分,也許還有另一點。到 2024 年,我們的積壓訂單將達到 7.5 億美元,比前一年大幅成長。現在其中一些是 Trachte 積壓訂單的增加,但這也是 Trachte 積壓訂單逐年增加以及數據解決方案增加的增加。因此,當我們展望下半年時,我們對積壓訂單有很好的了解,再加上我們看到的需求也在增長,這讓我們對下半年的成長充滿信心。

  • Brian Drab - Analyst

    Brian Drab - Analyst

  • Yes, this seems like a great -- I mean, obviously, it's a great acquisition that you made. And if it's 10% of revenue and growing even 15%, it's 150 bps of growth in the second half of the year. And it seems like it could be even more than that if that business is growing that quickly. So as people are just trying to reconcile the acceleration of organic revenue growth feels material. So I'll follow up more later though.

    是的,這看起來很棒——我的意思是,顯然,這是你所做的一次偉大收購。如果營收為 10%,甚至成長 15%,那麼下半年的成長就是 150 個基點。如果該業務成長如此之快,那麼收入似乎可能會更多。因此,當人們試圖調和有機收入成長的加速時,感覺很重要。因此我稍後會進一步跟進。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, it's a great growth platform for us, and we're very excited about the broad applications and opportunities that we have there. So off to a great start.

    是的,這對我們來說是一個很好的成長平台,我們對那裡廣泛的應用和機會感到非常興奮。所以有一個很好的開始。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vlad Bystricky, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的 Vlad Bystricky。

  • Vladimir Bystricky - Analyst

    Vladimir Bystricky - Analyst

  • So maybe just a couple of quick questions from me, one on the capital deployment front. I think the slide you shared, slide 8, on the core technology platforms is helpful and very interesting. I guess as I think about incremental capital deployment versus those six core technology platforms, are there particular areas that stand out where you see more potential for M&A or more actionability to layer on to those core platforms through M&A?

    我只想問幾個快速問題,一個是關於資本部署的。我認為您分享的有關核心技術平台的第 8 張投影片很有幫助,而且非常有趣。我想,當我考慮增量資本部署與這六個核心技術平台時,是否存在特別突出的領域,您認為在這些領域中併購的潛力更大,或者透過併購在這些核心平台上分層的可行性更大?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think the answer to that is yes. And I think -- but it's a combination for us to look at these technologies and products as well as the high-growth vertical overlay because we want to ensure our flywheel is that we acquire companies with a great differentiated product portfolio in a high-growth vertical where we can invest and scale to grow. So we look at these platforms and we also look at infrastructure verticals. And when we can find the two overlay together, we think that there's a lot of momentum that we can get from that flywheel.

    嗯,我認為答案是肯定的。我認為 — — 但我們將這些技術和產品與高成長垂直覆蓋結合起來,因為我們希望確保我們的飛輪是我們收購高成長垂直領域中擁有出色差異化產品組合的公司,我們可以在這些公司進行投資和擴大規模以實現成長。因此,我們關注這些平台,也關注基礎設施垂直領域。當我們發現兩者重疊時,我們認為我們可以從飛輪中獲得很大的動力。

  • Vladimir Bystricky - Analyst

    Vladimir Bystricky - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful, Beth. And then I guess, just obviously, a lot of focus on liquid cooling and what you're seeing there. Can we just talk about your visibility to the timing of deliveries and whether you're seeing any material movements from customers in terms of when they want liquid cooling product as they continue to refine their designs and approaches to thermal management?

    知道了。這很有幫助,貝絲。然後我想,顯然,人們非常關注液體冷卻以及你所看到的情況。我們能否談談您對交貨時間的了解,以及隨著客戶不斷改進其設計和熱管理方法,您是否看到客戶在何時需要液體冷卻產品方面有任何實質性的動向?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, I think what we have seen is that the awareness and interest in liquid cooling in general has increased. And so with some of our customers that we've had for a long time, we continue to talk about adding capacity, increasing programs, scaling what we do. Then we attract new customers who are, in some cases, testing out new solutions, trying to understand their system architectures.

    不,我認為我們看到的是,人們對液體冷卻的認識和興趣總體上有所提高。因此,對於一些合作已久的客戶,我們一直在討論增加產能、增加專案、擴大我們的業務規模。然後,我們吸引新客戶,在某些情況下,他們會測試新的解決方案,試圖了解他們的系統架構。

  • In general, it's a lot of activity that we're seeing, both with existing and new and expanding from hyperscalers to enterprise and other types of customers. So it's very busy and active, I guess, I would say, and our backlog supports that and the continued growth that we're seeing here.

    總體而言,我們看到了很多活動,既有現有的,也有新的,並且從超大規模擴展到企業和其他類型的客戶。所以我想說,這是非常忙碌和活躍的,我們的積壓工作支持了這一點,也支持了我們在這裡看到的持續成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Graham, Seaport.

    斯科特·格雷厄姆,海港。

  • Scott Graham - Analyst

    Scott Graham - Analyst

  • I wanted to maybe understand sort of your calculation of the EPS impact from Trachte in the first quarter and maybe what's embedded in the '25 guide.

    我想了解您對 Trachte 第一季每股收益影響的計算,以及 25 指南中的內容。

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So we haven't gotten that specific, Scott, but I think we gave some guardrails, right, initially as we acquired Trachte, right? We said it's roughly a $250 million business and in that kind of 20% plus/minus return on sales. So I think you can do the math. It suggests we've got a bit of carryover here in the first half. And importantly, as we look at just the overall back half contribution from an organic standpoint and the drop-through on that, it plays a meaningful part in our overall growth and earnings contribution.

    所以,斯科特,我們還沒有得到具體信息,但我認為我們在收購 Trachte 時就給出了一些保護措施,對吧?我們說這是一筆約 2.5 億美元的業務,銷售回報率約為 20% 左右。所以我認為你可以算一下。這表明我們在上半年已經取得了一些進展。重要的是,當我們從有機角度來看後半部分的整體貢獻及其下降時,它對我們的整體成長和獲利貢獻起著重要作用。

  • Scott Graham - Analyst

    Scott Graham - Analyst

  • Okay. The second question I had for you was on inflation. Is the fourth quarter inflation number that you provided a decent run rate for '25 quarters?

    好的。我要問您的第二個問題是關於通貨膨脹。您提供的第四季通膨數字對於 25 個季度來說是一個合理的運行率嗎?

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I think it's a good baseline starting point, right, to take that Q4 and extend it. Another way you can look at it, too, is just look at that full year inflation but I think it's a good starting point. Again, similar to 2024, we expect it to be an inflationary environment with really labor being the biggest driver of that overall.

    我認為這是一個很好的基線起點,對吧,採用 Q4 並進行擴展。您也可以從另一個角度來看待這個問題,那就是只看全年通膨率,但我認為這是一個很好的起點。同樣,與 2024 年類似,我們預計這將是一個通膨環境,而勞動力實際上是整體上最大的驅動因素。

  • Scott Graham - Analyst

    Scott Graham - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. Last question. So you talked about the orders maybe starting to spread out vertical-wise in January. And I know that your organic projections, your ramp in organic is based on, you went through that, thank you. What I was wondering was, how much of that ramp includes some of these projects that you referred to, and whether you think there might be some timing risk around those projects?

    非常感謝。最後一個問題。所以您說訂單可能從一月就開始垂直展開。我知道您的有機預測、您的有機成長是基於這些的,您已經經歷過這些了,謝謝。我想知道的是,這個成長曲線中有多少包括您所提到的一些項目,以及您是否認為這些項目可能存在一些時間風險?

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So I think if you're referring to timing projects in data solutions or Trachte, I mean, we have a good sense of how those projects execute over the course of the year, and we think that's fairly stable. And I think what we're just seeing is other things ramp from Q1 to Q2. But we've said it's just a slower start to the year, one, because of that comp that we had in Q1 and just how we see these orders lay in.

    因此,我認為如果您指的是數據解決方案或 Trachte 中的計時項目,我的意思是,我們很清楚這些項目在一年中的執行情況,而且我們認為這是相當穩定的。我認為我們看到的是其他事情從第一季到第二季呈上升趨勢。但我們說過,今年的開局只是比較緩慢,一方面是因為第一季的業績表現不佳,另一方面是因為我們看到這些訂單的情況。

  • Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Sara Zawoyski - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, and maybe a point on the comp, too, Scott, and I know you guys see this, but it was meaningful, right, in Q1. I mean, our comp is overall, at an nVent level, organic growth of 6%, and we're lapping systems protection growth of 11% in the quarter. So some of it is just timing and comp.

    是的,斯科特,也許這也是比較中的一個觀點,我知道你們都看到了這一點,但這在第一季是有意義的。我的意思是,我們的公司總體而言,在 nVent 層面,有機成長率為 6%,而本季我們的系統保護成長率為 11%。因此其中一些只是時間和補償。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Beth Wozniak, CEO and Chair of the Board, for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給執行長兼董事會主席 Beth Wozniak,請她作最後發言。

  • Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Beth Wozniak - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you for joining us this morning. We are proud of our strong 2024 performance and believe the electrification of everything, sustainability, and digitalization trends are driving demand for our products and solutions. We are excited for 2025 with our portfolio transformation. I'm grateful for the outstanding work of our team to support our customers and execute on our growth strategy. Thanks again for joining us. This concludes the call.

    感謝您今天上午加入我們。我們為 2024 年的強勁表現感到自豪,並相信一切電氣化、永續性和數位化趨勢正在推動對我們的產品和解決方案的需求。我們對2025年的投資組合轉型充滿期待。我很感謝我們團隊的出色工作,為我們的客戶提供支援並執行我們的成長策略。再次感謝您的加入。通話到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。