輝達 (NVDA) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Christina, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to NVIDIA's financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I'll now turn the call over to Simona Jankowski, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin your conference.

    午安.我叫克里斯蒂娜,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。歡迎參加英偉達財務業績電話會議。(操作員指示)現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁西蒙娜·揚科夫斯基,由她開始您的會議。

  • Simona Jankowski - VP of IR

    Simona Jankowski - VP of IR

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to NVIDIA's conference call for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. With me on the call today from NVIDIA are Jensen Huang, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to remind you that our call is being webcast live on NVIDIA's Investor Relations website. The webcast will be available for replay until the conference call to discuss our financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2020. The content of today's call is NVIDIA's property. It can't be reproduced or transcribed without our prior written consent.

    謝謝。各位下午好,歡迎參加英偉達2019財年第四季業績電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的英偉達總裁兼執行長黃仁勳,以及執行副總裁兼財務長科萊特·克雷斯。我想提醒各位,我們的電話會議正在英偉達投資者關係網站上進行網路直播。網路直播將提供回放,直至召開電話會議討論我們 2020 財年第一季的財務業績。本次電話會議的內容歸英偉達所有。未經我們事先書面同意,不得複製或轉錄。

  • During this call, we may make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. For a discussion of factors that could affect our future financial results and business, please refer to the disclosure in today's earnings release, our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q and the reports that we may file on Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All our statements are made as of today, February 14, 2019, based on information currently available to us. Except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update any such statements.

    在本次電話會議中,我們可能會根據目前的預期發表一些前瞻性聲明。這些都存在著許多重大風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關可能影響我們未來財務表現和業務的因素的討論,請參閱今天發布的收益報告中的披露資訊、我們最新的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格以及我們可能向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格報告。我們所有聲明均截至2019年2月14日,並基於我們目前掌握的資訊。除法律另有規定外,我們不承擔更新任何此類聲明的義務。

  • During this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our CFO commentary, which is posted on our website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的財務長評論中找到這些非GAAP財務指標與GAAP財務指標的調節表,該評論已發佈在我們的網站上。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Colette.

    那麼,現在讓我把電話交給科萊特。

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Simona. As you know, we lowered our fourth quarter guidance on January 28, and our results are in line with our pre-announcement. Q4 revenue was $2.21 billion, down 24% from a year earlier, driven primarily by a 45% year-on-year decline in gaming. Full year revenue was $11.72 billion, up 21% from our previous year.

    謝謝你,西蒙娜。如您所知,我們在1月28日下調了第四季度業績預期,而我們的實際業績與先前的預期一致。第四季營收為 22.1 億美元,年減 24%,主要原因是遊戲業務年減 45%。全年營收達117.2億美元,較上年成長21%。

  • Starting with our gaming business. Revenue of $954 million was down 45% year-on-year and down 46% sequentially, weaker than our expectations heading into the quarter. Full year revenue was up 13% to $6.25 billion.

    首先從我們的遊戲業務說起。營收為 9.54 億美元,年減 45%,季減 46%,低於我們本季初的預期。全年營收成長13%,達62.5億美元。

  • Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, post-crypto inventory of GPUs in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventories to normalize in Q1, in line with 1- to 2-quarter time line we had outlined on our previous earnings call. Second, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, particularly in China, impacted consumer demand for our GPUs. And third, sales of certain high-end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070, were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture. These products deliver a revolutionary leap in performance and innovation with real-time ray tracing and AI, but some customers may have delayed their purchase while waiting for new -- for lower price points or further demonstration of the RTX technology in actual games. The significant volatility in our gaming business over the last few quarters has been challenging to model. Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line.

    導致第四季遊戲收入下降的因素有三點。首先,加密貨幣交易後渠道中 GPU 庫存增加,導致我們減少了出貨量,以便讓過剩的渠道庫存售出。我們預計通路庫存將在第一季恢復正常,這與我們先前在財報電話會議上概述的 1 至 2 個季度的時間表一致。其次,宏觀經濟狀況惡化,尤其是在中國,影響了消費者對我們GPU的需求。第三,採用我們全新 Turing 架構的某些高階 GPU(包括 GeForce RTX 2080 和 2070)的銷售量低於我們對新架構發佈時的預期。這些產品透過即時光線追蹤和人工智慧技術,在性能和創新方面實現了革命性的飛躍,但一些客戶可能因為等待價格更低的新產品或在實際遊戲中進一步展示 RTX 技術而推遲了購買。過去幾個季度,我們遊戲業務的波動性很大,這給建模帶來了挑戰。加密貨幣挖礦需求及其後續影響扭曲了遊戲產業的季度趨勢,並掩蓋了其潛在的趨勢線。

  • Let me try to give you some visibility into what we believe the normalized business looks like. As you know, our gaming business consists of desktop gaming, notebook gaming and gaming console products. To get a sense of the underlying run rate in our gaming business last year, it is helpful to look at desktop gaming revenue across a period that doesn't include crypto demand. Let's look at the 4 quarters starting from Q2 of last year to the current quarter or Q1 this year.

    讓我試著向你們展示我們認為正常的商業模式應該是什麼樣子。如您所知,我們的遊戲業務包括桌上型遊戲、筆記型電腦遊戲和遊戲主機產品。為了了解我們去年遊戲業務的基本運行速度,查看不包括加密貨幣需求的桌上遊戲收入時期是很有幫助的。讓我們來看看從去年第二季到今年第一季這四個季度的情況。

  • In Q2 and Q3 of last year, with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be. To allow the channel to work down that excess channel inventory, we shipped a lower amount relative to end demand in Q4, and will do so again in Q1. Therefore, exiting Q1, we expect channel inventories to be at normal levels. On average, our desktop gaming revenue across these 4 quarters is about $900 million. We believe this represents the normalized level of desktop gaming for this period. Notebook gaming and gaming consoles have averaged close to $500 million per quarter over the same 4 quarters. Thus, in total, we believe our normalized quarterly gaming business revenue run rate is approximately $1.4 billion.

    事後看來,去年第二季和第三季度,我們桌上遊戲產品的出貨量相對於最終市場需求而言要高。為了讓通路能夠消化過剩的通路庫存,我們在第四季度減少了相對於最終需求的出貨量,並且在第一季也將再次這樣做。因此,我們預計第一季末渠道庫存將處於正常水準。過去四個季度,我們的桌上遊戲收入平均約為 9 億美元。我們認為這代表了這段時期桌上遊戲的正常水準。在過去的四個季度裡,筆記型電腦遊戲和遊戲主機平均每季的收入接近 5 億美元。因此,我們認為,我們經調整後的季度遊戲業務收入運行率總計約為 14 億美元。

  • As we look past Q1, we expect the channel inventory correction to be behind us and our business to have bottomed. On a full year basis, we expect our gaming business to be down slightly, given the tough first half compares with growth in Turing and notebook gaming.

    展望第一季之後,我們預期通路庫存調整已經結束,我們的業務也將觸底。從全年來看,考慮到上半年圖靈架構和筆記型電腦遊戲業務的成長,以及與之相比的艱難局面,我們預計遊戲業務將略有下降。

  • At CES last month, we launched into the recovery of our gaming business. We announced the GeForce RTX 2060 at the midrange price point of $349. The 2060 delivers a 60% performance improvement over the GTX 1060 while also bringing Turing's real-time ray tracing and AI features to the mass market for the first time. The 2060 has received rave reviews and is off to a great start.

    上個月的CES展會上,我們啟動了遊戲業務的復甦計畫。我們發布了 GeForce RTX 2060,其中端價格為 349 美元。GTX 2060 的性能比 GTX 1060 提高了 60%,同時首次將 Turing 的即時光線追蹤和 AI 功能帶入大眾市場。2060 獲得了極高的評價,並且開局非常順利。

  • In addition, we announced a record of 40-plus new Turing-based gaming laptops, which became available on January 29. This is more than double the number of GeForce-powered notebooks in the market last year, featuring the energy efficiency of the Turing architecture and the light laptops are able to deliver the performance of desktop gaming PCs. We expect GeForce laptops to continue to be the fastest-growing segment of gaming.

    此外,我們還發布了創紀錄的 40 多款基於 Turing 架構的全新遊戲筆記型電腦,這些筆記型電腦已於 1 月 29 日上市。這比去年市場上搭載 GeForce 顯示卡的筆記型電腦數量增加了一倍多,這些筆記型電腦具有 Turing 架構的能源效率優勢,並且輕薄便攜,能夠提供媲美桌上型遊戲電腦的效能。我們預計 GeForce 筆記型電腦將繼續成為遊戲領域成長最快的細分市場。

  • We are also pleased to see growing momentum in the RTX ecosystem as more game developers are creating content to take advantage of the Turing architecture's amazing capabilities. Just this week, DLSS technology is becoming available in 2 blockbuster games, Battlefield V and Metro Exodus and Anthem coming soon. In addition, at CES, Justice and Atomic Heart showed demos featuring ray tracing and DLSS. And a large pipeline of games plan to integrate RTX technology. Pairing DLSS with ray tracing can provide comparable frame rates to traditional rasterization but also much more beautiful cinematic visuals, the best of both worlds. This is the next generation of gaming. While this was a challenging quarter in our gaming business, we look forward to putting the channel inventory correction behind us and building on a solid foundation of our Turing architecture.

    我們也欣喜地看到,隨著越來越多的遊戲開發者利用圖靈架構的強大功能來創作內容,RTX 生態系統的發展勢頭日益強勁。就在本週,DLSS 技術將在兩款熱門遊戲《戰地5》和《地鐵:離鄉》中推出,《聖歌》也即將加入。此外,在 CES 上,Justice 和 Atomic Heart 展示了光線追蹤和 DLSS 的示範。而且,大量遊戲計劃整合 RTX 技術。將 DLSS 與光線追蹤結合使用,可提供與傳統光柵化相當的幀速率,但同時也能提供更美麗的電影級視覺效果,可謂兩全其美。這是下一代遊戲。雖然本季對我們的遊戲業務來說是一個充滿挑戰的季度,但我們期待將通路庫存調整拋諸腦後,並在我們 Turing 架構的堅實基礎上繼續發展。

  • Moving to datacenter. Revenue was $679 million, up 12% year-on-year and down 14% sequentially. Full year datacenter revenue was $2.93 billion, up a strong 52%. The Q4 sales decline was broad-based across vertical end markets and geographies. As the quarter progressed, customers around the world became increasingly cautious, due to rising economic uncertainty and a number of deals did not close in January. In addition, hyperscale and cloud purchases declined both sequentially and year-on-year as several customers paused at the end of the year. We believe the pause is temporary. The strength of NVIDIA's accelerated computing platform remains intact. We continue to lead the industry in performance for scientific computing and deep learning. And with CUDA's programmability, we can continue to expand the value of our platform. For example, we recently announced RAPIDS or CUDA acceleration stack for data analytics and machine learning.

    遷移至資料中心。營收為 6.79 億美元,年增 12%,季減 14%。全年資料中心營收為 29.3 億美元,大幅成長 52%。第四季銷售額下滑遍及各個垂直終端市場和地區。隨著季度的推進,由於經濟不確定性的增加,世界各地的客戶變得越來越謹慎,1 月許多交易未能完成。此外,由於一些客戶在年底暫停了採購,超大規模和雲端採購量較上季和年比均有所下降。我們認為這種暫停是暫時的。NVIDIA加速運算平台的強大實力仍不減。我們在科學計算和深度學習的性能方面繼續保持行業領先地位。借助 CUDA 的可程式性,我們可以不斷擴展我們平台的價值。例如,我們最近發布了用於資料分析和機器學習的 RAPIDS 或 CUDA 加速堆疊。

  • In December, the first objective third-party AI benchmark called MLPerf became available, and NVIDIA captured the top spot in the 6 test categories for training deep learning models that we competed in. And in January, Google Cloud announced that NVIDIA T4 Tensor Core GPUs are now available in beta in its datacenters in the U.S., Europe, Brazil, India, Singapore and Tokyo. The T4 is a universal cloud GPU that accelerates a variety of workloads, including high-performance computing, deep learning training and inference, broader machine learning, data analytics and graphics.

    12 月,首個客觀的第三方 AI 基準測試 MLPerf 上線,NVIDIA 在我們參與的 6 個深度學習模型訓練測試類別中均名列榜首。今年 1 月,Google雲端宣布 NVIDIA T4 Tensor Core GPU 現已在其位於美國、歐洲、巴西、印度、新加坡和東京的資料中心推出測試版。T4 是一款通用雲端 GPU,可加速各種工作負載,包括高效能運算、深度學習訓練和推理、更廣泛的機器學習、資料分析和圖形處理。

  • Our visibility remains low in the current cautious spending environment, and we don't forecast a meaningful recovery in the data center segment until later in the year. However, we are working closely with hyperscales around the world to integrate NVIDIA TensorRT software and Tensor Core GPUs into their inference production flow. Inference currently drives less than 10% of our data center business, but represents a significant expansion of our addressable market opportunity going forward.

    在當前謹慎的消費環境下,我們的市場前景依然黯淡,預計資料中心領域要到今年稍後才會出現實質復甦。但是,我們正在與世界各地的超大規模資料中心密切合作,將 NVIDIA TensorRT 軟體和 Tensor Core GPU 整合到他們的推理生產流程中。目前推理業務僅占我們資料中心業務的不到 10%,但代表著我們未來可觸及市場機會的顯著擴展。

  • We have also strengthened our product portfolio and go-to-market capabilities to address vertical industries that have an enormous data and analytics requirements, such as automotive, financial services, retail, health care and consumer Internet services. With our RAPIDS software stack, NVIDIA can accelerate data analytics and machine learning, and we have -- as we have done in deep learning. And we made it easier for customers to adopt our technology by partnering with Cisco, IBM, NetApp and Pure Storage to create pre-integrated systems that can be sold through their global IT channels.

    我們也加強了產品組合和市場推廣能力,以滿足汽車、金融服務、零售、醫療保健和消費者互聯網服務等對數據和分析有巨大需求的垂直行業的需求。借助我們的 RAPIDS 軟體堆疊,NVIDIA 可以加速資料分析和機器學習,而我們也確實做到了——就像我們在深度學習領域所做的那樣。我們與思科、IBM、NetApp 和 Pure Storage 合作,創建預先整合系統,並透過他們的全球 IT 管道進行銷售,讓客戶更容易採用我們的技術。

  • Moving to pro visualization. Revenue reached $293 million, up 15% from the prior year and down 4% sequentially. Full year revenue was $1.13 billion, up 21% year-on-year. New applications like data science, AI and VR as well as the need for thin and light mobile workstations remain key growth drivers for the business.

    邁向專業可視化。營收達 2.93 億美元,較上年成長 15%,季減 4%。全年營收為11.3億美元,年增21%。數據科學、人工智慧和虛擬實境等新興應用,以及對輕薄行動工作站的需求,仍是推動業務成長的關鍵因素。

  • We had key wins in the quarter, including Boeing, Google, LinkedIn and Toyota for applications including AI and robotics. This past week, with our partners, HP, Dell, Lenovo, we announced the availability of Quadro RTX workstations. Quadro RTX is the most significant workstation GPU upgrade in 10 years. It will enable millions of designers and creative architects for the first time to work interactively with super high resolution media and photorealistic 3D rendering, enabling them to be creative with dramatically improved productivity.

    本季我們取得了一些重要進展,包括與波音、Google、LinkedIn 和豐田等公司合作,應用領域涵蓋人工智慧和機器人技術。上週,我們與合作夥伴惠普、戴爾、聯想一起宣布推出 Quadro RTX 工作站。Quadro RTX 是近十年來工作站 GPU 最重大的升級。它將首次使數百萬設計師和創意建築師能夠以互動方式使用超高解析度媒體和照片級逼真的 3D 渲染,從而使他們能夠以顯著提高的生產力進行創作。

  • Finally, turning to automotive. Q4 revenue was $163 million, up 23% from a year ago and down 5% sequentially. Full year revenue reached $641 million, up 15%. The sequential decline was largely seasonal. The year-on-year growth was driven by the increasingly adoption of next-generation AI cockpit solutions and autonomous vehicle development deals, partially offset by declines in legacy infotainment.

    最後,我們來談談汽車產業。第四季營收為 1.63 億美元,年增 23%,季減 5%。全年營收達6.41億美元,成長15%。這種連續下降趨勢很大程度上是季節性的。年比成長主要得益於下一代人工智慧座艙解決方案和自動駕駛汽車開發協議的日益普及,但部分被傳統資訊娛樂系統的下滑所抵消。

  • Last month at CES, we announced DRIVE AutoPilot, the world's first commercially available Level 2+ self-driving car computer. The system offers sophisticated automated driving features that far surpass today's ADAS offerings, increasing the vehicle's performance, functionality and road safety while the driver remains in control. We delivered these capabilities. DRIVE AutoPilot uses multiple deep neural networks; surround camera perception, both in and outside of the car; and significant AI processing capability. Systems from our Tier 1 partners, including Bosch, Continental, Veoneer and ZF were all on display on at our booths.

    上個月在 CES 展會上,我們發布了 DRIVE AutoPilot,這是世界上第一款商用 2+ 級自動駕駛汽車電腦。該系統提供先進的自動駕駛功能,遠遠超越了當今的 ADAS 產品,並提高了車輛的性能、功能和道路安全性,同時駕駛員仍能保持控制。我們已交付這些能力。DRIVE AutoPilot 使用多個深度神經網路;車內和車外的環繞攝影機感知;以及強大的 AI 處理能力。我們的一級合作夥伴,包括博世、大陸集團、維能和採埃孚等公司的系統,都在我們的展位上展出。

  • Volvo, as announced back in October, was our first Level 2+ design win with cars slated for production in the early 2020s. Mercedes-Benz has also chosen NVIDIA for its next-generation autonomous vehicle and cockpit computer. This centralized AI computing system replaces dozens of smaller processors inside current cars. DRIVE AutoPilot is a major milestone for NVIDIA and takes our high-functioning, self-driving capabilities into the mass market. This will be an important year for robo-taxi pilots and initial Level 2 design wins.

    早在 10 月就宣布,沃爾沃是我們第一個獲得 2+ 級設計認證的客戶,其生產的汽車計劃於 2020 年代初投產。梅賽德斯-奔馳也選擇了英偉達為其下一代自動駕駛汽車和駕駛艙電腦提供技術支援。這種集中式人工智慧運算系統取代了目前汽車內部數十個小型處理器。DRIVE AutoPilot 是 NVIDIA 的一個重要里程碑,它將我們高性能的自動駕駛技術帶入了大眾市場。對於無人駕駛計程車飛行員和首批 L2 級設計方案的得標者來說,這將是重要的一年。

  • Moving to the rest of the P&L and balance sheet. Q4 GAAP gross margins was 54.7%. And non-GAAP was 56.0%, down sequentially and year-on-year, primarily due to a $128 million charge for DRAM, boards and other components associated with our lower-than-expected Q4 revenue and current market conditions.

    接下來來看損益表和資產負債表的其餘部分。第四季 GAAP 毛利率為 54.7%。非GAAP利潤率為56.0%,環比和同比均下降,主要原因是由於第四季度收入低於預期以及當前市場狀況,導致DRAM、電路板和其他組件的支出增加了1.28億美元。

  • GAAP operating expenses were $913 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses were $755 million, up 25% and 24% year-on-year, respectively. GAAP EPS was $0.92, down 48% from a year earlier. Full year GAAP EPS was $6.63, up 38% from the prior year. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.80, down 53% from a year ago. Full year non-GAAP EPS was $6.64, up 35% from the prior year.

    GAAP 營運費用為 9.13 億美元,非 GAAP 營運費用為 7.55 億美元,分別年增 25% 和 24%。GAAP每股收益為0.92美元,較去年同期下降48%。全年GAAP每股收益為6.63美元,較上年成長38%。非GAAP每股收益為0.80美元,比去年同期下降53%。全年非GAAP每股收益為6.64美元,較上年成長35%。

  • We returned $1.95 billion to shareholders in the fiscal year through a combination of quarterly dividends and share repurchases. As we announced last quarter, we plan to return $3 billion to shareholders through the end of fiscal 2020 in the form of dividends and buybacks. We repurchased $700 million during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019.

    本財年,我們透過季度分紅和股票回購的方式向股東返還了 19.5 億美元。正如我們在上個季度宣布的那樣,我們計劃在 2020 財年結束前以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還 30 億美元。我們在 2019 財年第四季回購了 7 億美元。

  • With that, let me turn to the outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2020. We expect revenue to be $2.2 billion plus or minus 2%. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 58.8% and 59%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $930 million and $755 million, respectively. GAAP and non-GAAP OI&E are both expected to be an income of $20 million. GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are both expected to be 10% plus or minus 1%, excluding discrete items. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $150 million to $170 million.

    接下來,我將展望一下2020財年第一季的情況。我們預計營收為22億美元,上下浮動2%。GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率預計分別為 58.8% 和 59%,上下浮動 50 個基點。GAAP 和非 GAAP 營運費用預計分別約為 9.3 億美元和 7.55 億美元。GAAP 和非 GAAP 下的營業收入和支出預計均為 2,000 萬美元。GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率預計均為 10% 加減 1%,不包括特殊項目。預計資本支出約 1.5 億美元至 1.7 億美元。

  • For fiscal 2020, we expect Q1 to mark the bottom as we pass the inventory correction in gaming. We expect total revenue for the year to be flat to down slightly with growth in our 4 end markets, compensating for the absence of crypto revenue and the excess selling from last year. We plan to grow OpEx in the high single digits this year, and we continue to invest in our focused growth areas of graphics, AI and self-driving cars. Further financial details are included in the CFO commentary, and other information is available on our IR website.

    我們預計 2020 財年第一季將觸底,因為遊戲產業的庫存調整已經結束。我們預計今年的總收入將持平或略有下降,這得益於我們 4 個終端市場的成長,彌補了加密貨幣收入的缺失和去年的超額銷售。我們計劃今年實現營運支出接近兩位數的成長,並將繼續投資於我們重點成長的領域,例如圖形、人工智慧和自動駕駛汽車。更多財務細節請參閱財務長評論,其他資訊請造訪我們的投資者關係網站。

  • In closing, I'd like to highlight upcoming events for the financial community. We'll be presenting at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on February 26. And our next earnings call to discuss our financial results for the quarter of fiscal 2020 will take place on May 15.

    最後,我想重點介紹一下金融界即將發生的一些事件。我們將於2月26日在摩根士丹利科技、媒體和電信大會上進行演講。我們將於 5 月 15 日舉行下一次財報電話會議,討論 2020 財年第一季的財務表現。

  • We will now open the call for questions. Operator, would you please poll for questions? Thank you.

    現在開始接受提問。操作員,請問能否進行一次投票,看看大家有什麼問題?謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I had 2 questions. First, Colette, you talked about the weakness you saw in the 2070 and the 2080 in the quarter. I guess this question is more for Jensen. Are you concerned at all about your ability to convince and incentivize gamers to -- as Colette pointed out, it's more of a timing thing? And second question is inventory was up on the balance sheet. Colette, if you can just provide some color there and expectations going forward.

    我有兩個問題。首先,科萊特,你談到了你在本季看到的 2070 和 2080 的疲軟表現。我想這個問題更該問詹森。你是否擔心自己無法說服和激勵玩家——正如科萊特指出的那樣,這更多的是一個時機問題?第二個問題是資產負債表上的庫存增加了。科萊特,如果你能提供一些細節資訊以及對未來的期望就太好了。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Toshiya. When we launched the 2070 and 2080, it was the first time we've ever launched a new generation where the only available SKUs were very high end. And in addition to that, the early boards that came out into the marketplace were the special edition and the overclock versions, and the MSRP versions didn't show up for some short time after, couple of months after. And so the conditions weren't ideal, if you will. Now we weren't able to launch into the mainstream segment with 2060 for all the reasons that I think everybody understands now. And so I think that the situation wasn't ideal. When you take a look at our situation now, every single graphics card had the best performance at its price point, and it remain so today. And I think that right out of the box, it delivered excellent performance. It is true that everybody was hoping to see more games with RTX on day 1. But it's such a new technology with ray tracing and AI for image processing that it's only really possible to make available with new games, which is tied to the schedules of new games. And now they're starting to come out. Battlefield V, Metro Exodus, I think the reviews from this week are just spectacular. People are finally realizing what it is that we were talking about. And that it's possible with RTX technology, the combination of applying ray tracing and AI for us to deliver much more beautiful images without sacrificing performance. And so I think people are starting to understand now the benefits of the RTX technology. And we just needed some time to demonstrate it. And I think the takeaway is simply this. RTX is the best graphics card at every single price point without using ray tracing technology. And for new games that are coming out, each one of the new games that come out in the future will apply ray tracing, and work with developers to apply ray tracing technology. I think everybody agrees that it is surely the next generation. And then probably one of the biggest stories that came out just last week is Unreal Engine and Unity, both of the game engines are going to incorporate RTX and ray tracing technology in the engine itself. And so all future games in the future will be able to take advantage of that. So that's a really big news, and I'm excited about that.

    是的,俊也。當我們推出 2070 和 2080 時,這是我們首次推出新一代產品,而當時唯一可用的 SKU 都是非常高階的產品。此外,最早推出市場的主機板都是特別版和超頻版,而建議零售價版本在幾個月後才出現。所以,可以說當時的條件並不理想。由於種種原因,我們沒能以 2060 打入主流市場,我想現在大家都明白原因了。所以我認為情況並不理想。看看我們現在的狀況,每一張顯示卡在其價格範圍內都擁有最佳性能,而且直到今天仍然如此。我認為它開箱即用,性能非常出色。的確,大家都希望在發售當天就能看到更多支援 RTX 的遊戲。但 RTX 是一項非常新的技術,它結合了光線追蹤和人工智慧影像處理,因此只有新遊戲才能真正支援這項技術,而新遊戲的發布又與遊戲的進度息息相關。現在他們開始出來了。《戰地5》、《地鐵:離鄉》,我覺得這週的評測簡直精彩。人們終於意識到我們一直在談論的是什麼。而RTX技術,也就是光線追蹤和人工智慧的結合,使我們能夠在不犧牲效能的前提下,呈現更精美的影像。所以我覺得現在人們開始了解RTX技術的優點了。我們需要一些時間來證明這一點。我認為關鍵就在於此。RTX 是所有價位段最好的顯示卡,即使不使用光線追蹤技術。對於即將推出的新遊戲,未來推出的每一款新遊戲都將應用光線追蹤技術,並與開發者合作應用光線追蹤技術。我認為大家都認同,這肯定是下一代。上週最重磅的消息之一可能是虛幻引擎和Unity,這兩個遊戲引擎都將在引擎本身中整合RTX和光線追蹤技術。因此,未來所有的遊戲都將能夠利用這一點。這是個大新聞,我為此感到非常興奮。

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • So Toshiya, to answer your second question regarding our inventory balance. Our inventory balance at the end of Q4 rose just due to the weaker-than-expected finish to Q4. Inventory right now is primarily related to Turing, Volta and DGX. And we don't expect any further write-downs as we have incorporated approximately $128 million of write-downs within the current Q4.

    那麼,Toshiya,關於你提出的第二個問題,也就是我們的庫存餘額。由於第四季末業績低於預期,導致我們第四季末的庫存餘額上升。目前庫存主要與 Turing、Volta 和 DGX 相關。我們預計不會再有任何進一步的減值,因為我們已在目前的第四季提列了約 1.28 億美元的減損準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess on the commentary regarding a pause in spending in datacenter and a handful of deals that got delayed, can you give a little bit more color in terms of, I guess what you're seeing across enterprise, cloud, high-performance compute? And I guess within that, how you're seeing the ramp of T4? And I guess if you can kind of then speak to I'm sure embedded in the fiscal '20 guidance is a pretty nice ramp into the second half. What are the key drivers, key milestones that you're looking for to see that business reaccelerate higher as we go through the year?

    關於資料中心支出暫停和一些交易被推遲的評論,您能否更詳細地說明一下您在企業、雲端運算和高效能運算方面看到的情況?那麼,在這種背景下,您如何看待T4的坡道呢?我想,如果你能談談的話,我相信在 2020 財年的業績指引中,已經包含了一條相當不錯的下半年成長路線。您希望看到哪些關鍵驅動因素和關鍵里程碑,才能讓業務在今年繼續加速成長?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • The slowdown is broad-based. We saw it across every vertical, every geography. There was just a level of cautiousness across all of the enterprise customers in the cloud service providers that we've not experienced in a while. And so I think that it has to be temporary. The computing needs of Earth has not certainly been satisfied with what we shipped last quarter. And so I think that the demand will return and customers will return. Our situation in datacenters is dramatically better year-over-year. And if you take a look at where we are, our deep learning solution is unquestionably the best in the world. We introduced T4 with inference capability. It's the world's first universal cloud GPU, and it does everything that NVIDIA does all in one GPU in 75 watts. And so it fits into every hyperscale datacenter. We're engaged with Internet service providers all around the world, optimizing, importing their high-production models, networks, so that we could deploy it into production. So we now have 4 different new growth drivers for our data center in addition to deep learning and scientific computing. We have inference that we're actively working on. We have data analytics that's called RAPIDS. Some people call it big data, but data analytics and machine learning. The third is rendering. And because of the partnerships that we've developed and the excitement that people see around enterprises around the world, we've developed partnerships with large IT companies to pre-configure systems that make it easier for enterprises to be able to adopt our technology. So we have 4 new ways for us to grow our enterprise business. And so we're looking forward to when the pause releases, and now we'll get back to growing.

    經濟放緩是普遍現象。我們在各個行業、各個地區都看到了這種情況。我們很久以來都沒有遇到過企業客戶對雲端服務供應商如此謹慎的情況。所以我認為這一定是暫時的。我們上個季度交付的產品顯然無法滿足地球的運算需求。所以我認為需求會恢復,顧客也會回來。我們的資料中心狀況比去年同期有了顯著改善。如果你看看我們目前所處的位置,你會發現我們的深度學習解決方案無疑是世界上最好的。我們推出了具備推理能力的T4。它是世界上首款通用雲端 GPU,它以 75 瓦的功耗,在一個 GPU 中實現了 NVIDIA 的所有功能。因此,它適用於所有超大規模資料中心。我們與世界各地的互聯網服務供應商合作,優化並導入他們的高產能模型和網絡,以便將其部署到生產環境中。所以,除了深度學習和科學運算之外,我們現在為資料中心帶來了 4 個不同的新成長動力。我們正在積極研究一些推論。我們有一個名為 RAPIDS 的資料分析工具。有些人稱之為大數據,但其實是數據分析和機器學習。第三點是渲染。由於我們建立了合作夥伴關係,並且世界各地的企業都對此表現出極大的熱情,我們與大型 IT 公司建立了合作夥伴關係,預先配置系統,使企業更容易採用我們的技術。因此,我們有 4 種新的方式來發展我們的企業業務。因此,我們期待暫停解除,然後我們將重新開始成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

  • Vivek Arya - Director

    Vivek Arya - Director

  • I just had a clarification and a question. On the clarification, gross margins, Colette, what is the normalized run rate for gross margin that as you get your sales back to normalized levels, how should we think about the trajectory of gross margins? And will there be any impact from the balance sheet inventory? And then on the question, Jensen, can you give us more reassurance that gaming is still a growth business? But I understand that over the last year, there's been a lot of confusion, there's been macro issues. But if you look at the number of gamers and the mix of product that they are buying, so essentially the sell-through to gamers, has that been on an upward trajectory? And as part of that, when do you think we could see Turing exceed the demand you saw for Pascal?

    我只是想澄清一下,並提出一個問題。關於毛利率的澄清,Colette,毛利率的正常運作率是多少?當銷售額恢復到正常水準時,我們該如何看待毛利率的走勢?資產負債表存貨會受到什麼影響?那麼,Jensen,關於這個問題,你能否進一步保證遊戲產業仍然是成長產業?但我了解到,過去一年來,出現了許多混亂和宏觀問題。但如果你觀察遊戲玩家的數量以及他們購買的產品組合,也就是面向遊戲玩家的銷售情況,你會發現它是否呈現上升趨勢?作為其中的一部分,您認為我們什麼時候才能看到圖靈的需求超過帕斯卡的需求?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I'll go first. Thanks for the question. On gross margin, our gross margin, the largest contributor to our absolute gross margin is really just the mix of our products. The mix of our products based on our market platforms but also the mix of our products within data center as well as within gaming. We provided guidance for Q1, which has a good level of confidence from us, and we'll see how it goes from there.

    那我先來。謝謝你的提問。就毛利率而言,我們毛利率的最大貢獻者其實就是我們產品的組合。我們的產品組合不僅基於我們的市場平台,還包括我們在資料中心和遊戲領域的產品組合。我們對第一季的業績給出了預期,我們對此很有信心,接下來我們將拭目以待。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Vivek, the fundamentals of gaming has not changed. There are more gamers than ever. Games are better than ever. There's been a recent shift in the popularity of multiplayer competitive eSports-like games. That's good for hardware. It lowers the barrier to entry because it's free to play with the exception of downloadable content. And so the barriers to entry is lower. But you could see that the excitement around Fortnite and recently with Apex Legend, PUBG is still popular, League of Legends is still popular. And so this genre of games, these genre of games is both competitive, requires great hardware. It attracts a lot more players because it's social, and you want to play with your friends. And it's much stickier because it happens to be social. It happens to be a game where you had to play with a whole bunch of other people. So I think that gaming is vibrant as ever before. If you take the methodology that Colette described earlier and you averaged out our underlying gaming business and you compare that to a year before, surely it grew. If you compare that -- if you compare also the rate of which our gaming notebook is growing, I think that's pretty exciting. I think last year, we had mentioned it before that our gaming notebook business grew 50% year-over-year. And just at CES, the number of new notebook designs that came out with Turing because of an invention that we created called Max-Q and because of the energy efficiency of the Turing architecture, you can now make notebooks that are really wonderful and also high performing at the same time. And so I think the dynamics are the same, and gaming is going to continue to be a growth business.

    維韋克,遊戲的基本原理並沒有改變。現在的遊戲玩家比以往任何時候都多。遊戲比以往任何時候都更好玩。近年來,多人競技類電競遊戲的受歡迎程度發生了變化。這對硬體來說是好事。除了可下載內容外,遊戲本身是免費的,這降低了遊戲的進入門檻。因此,進入門檻較低。但你可以看出,《要塞英雄》和最近的《Apex英雄》依然很受歡迎,《絕地求生》和《英雄聯盟》也依然很受歡迎。因此,這類遊戲既具有競爭性,又需要強大的硬體。它吸引了更多玩家,因為它具有社交性,而你想和朋友一起玩。而且它更難傳播,因為它恰好具有社交屬性。這恰好是一款需要和一大群人一起玩的遊戲。所以我認為遊戲產業依然充滿活力。如果你採用科萊特之前描述的方法,對我們基礎遊戲業務進行平均,並將其與前一年進行比較,那麼它肯定增長了。如果你把這一點和我們遊戲筆記型電腦的成長速度進行比較,我認為這非常令人興奮。我想去年我們曾經提到過,我們的遊戲筆記型電腦業務年增了 50%。僅在 CES 展會上,由於我們發明了 Max-Q 技術,以及 Turing 架構的能效,推出了大量採用 Turing 架構的新型筆記型電腦設計,現在您可以製造出既美觀又高效能的筆記型電腦。所以我認為發展趨勢是一樣的,遊戲產業將繼續保持成長勢頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Colette, I appreciate all the data you gave us on trying to size normalized demand for gaming. What I have to ask, though, is if you're still going through of the channel inventory worked out in fiscal first quarter, it seems like to hit your full year guide, the expectation is for gaming revenue to accelerate well above that normalized level you talked about. One, am I doing the math right? And if I am, kind of what gives you confidence throughout the year that you can see that kind of gaming growth off of these bottoms?

    科萊特,非常感謝你提供的所有關於如何衡量遊戲市場正常需求規模的數據。不過,我想問的是,如果您仍在按照第一財季制定的通路庫存進行計算,那麼為了實現全年目標,遊戲收入的預期增長速度似乎要遠高於您所說的正常水平。第一,我的計算方法對嗎?如果是這樣,是什麼讓你在這一年中始終保持信心,相信遊戲產業能夠從這些低谷期實現這樣的成長呢?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • I'll start, and I'll let Jensen finish that question. So along the lines of Jensen's response in terms of what we do believe are the key drivers of gaming and everything still intact in terms of gaming, both with our Turing architecture, the growth expected with our Turing architecture as well as the growth from the notebook, we do believe will be great drivers as we head into the rest of the year. We'll have to wait and see in terms of how that plays out, but that is really the underlying reason why we think the growth will continue.

    我先來,讓詹森把問題問完。因此,正如 Jensen 所回應的那樣,我們認為遊戲的關鍵驅動因素以及遊戲方面的一切仍然完好無損,無論是我們的 Turing 架構,還是 Turing 架構的預期增長,以及筆記型電腦的增長,我們都相信這些都將是我們今年剩餘時間裡的重要驅動力。至於最終結果如何,我們還需要拭目以待,但這正是我們認為成長將會持續的根本原因。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. I think your math isn't wrong. The part that you probably didn't consider is notebook. Our GeForce notebook business is quite large.

    是的。我認為你的計算沒有錯。你可能沒考慮到的是筆記本。我們的GeForce筆記型電腦業務規模相當大。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • That's helpful, Jensen. And then maybe just a follow-up, just on the data center side. Clearly, you've talked about new applications that should help grow your TAM inside of datacenter. I'm just kind of curious, the calendar fourth quarter of last year, I think marked the first time that a competitor had some meaningful volumes of GPU in the datacenter. There's always talk about the hyperscale guys are wanting to do their own ASICs. What kind of anecdotal evidence can you give us to help us get more comfortable of what's going on here is more macro and not share loss either to competition and/or architectural differences between GPUs and ASICs?

    那很有幫助,詹森。然後或許可以再跟進一下,就資料中心方面而言。顯然,您已經談到了有助於擴大資料中心內潛在市場規模的新應用。我只是有點好奇,我認為去年第四季標誌著競爭對手首次在資料中心擁有相當數量的 GPU。一直以來都有傳言說,超大規模資料中心的企業想要自主研發ASIC晶片。您能提供哪些軼事證據來幫助我們更好地理解,這裡發生的事情更多的是宏觀層面的,而不是由於競爭和/或 GPU 和 ASIC 之間的架構差異造成的市場份額損失?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • We don't see them in high-performance computing. And so I haven't found where -- we haven't met them in high-performance computing and deep learning and in the areas that we serve. And so competitively, I can't -- I don't really -- we don't see it. But the bigger picture, I think is this, that the market segments that we serve, whether it's in deep learning, machine learning, data analytics, those segments are really quite large. And I think that it is, unquestionably, the future of high-performance computing is going to be highly data driven, both computational methods, algorithmic methods as well as data-driven methods. And so I think the fundamental trend has not changed. We have 4 new growth drivers, 4 new ways to grow in the datacenter. The first one, of course, is inference. We're making a lot of progress there. T4 is doing great. I think we're going to be quite successful with T4s. You just got to keep saying that. It has second-generation Tensor Core, 75 watts. And you can use that for training. You can use it for inference. You could use it for remote graphics. You could use it for high-performance computing. And it fits literally into any hyperscale data center. The second way is data analytics. This is a brand-new thing for us. You must know that big data and using data to predict dynamics in the marketplace is really important in retail, in e-tail, in health care, in financial services. And there's never been an accelerated approach to solve this problem for people. And because of the flexibility of CUDA and because of the performance of our architecture, over the course of last year, we reengineered the entire data analytics stack, so that we can accelerate it. It's called RAPIDS. That work is really, really important, and I hope to give you guys updates on that on a regular basis. Rendering is a brand-new market for us because of Turing. Finally, we can render photorealistic images in accelerated way. There are millions of servers in the world that are driving render farms, and they're getting upgraded on a regular basis. And then lastly, we've been successful with CSPs because they're easy for us to reach. But the world's enterprises are far and many and they're giant industries. And our companies' sales coverage doesn't allow us to reach every single health care company and every single insurance company and retail company. And that's where our network of partners really come in. We have great partnerships with HP. We have great partnerships with Dell and Cisco and IBM. And now we've developed relationships with the storage vendors, so that -- and the reason for that is because most of these big data problems require a great deal of storage. And they both -- they all see, they see the opportunities that we've created. And we came together to create pre-configured systems that are optimized and tuned, and these high-performance systems that you can just bring into the company, prop up and install. And we're seeing a lot of great success with that. And so we have 4 different ways to grow our datacenter business, and we're enthusiastic about it. I'm optimistic about it.

    我們在高效能運算領域看不到它們。因此,我還沒有找到——我們還沒有在高效能運算、深度學習以及我們所服務的領域遇到過他們。所以從競爭的角度來看,我無法——我真的看不到——我們看不到這一點。但我認為,更重要的是,我們所服務的市場區隔領域,無論是深度學習、機器學習或資料分析,這些細分領域都非常龐大。毫無疑問,我認為高效能運算的未來將是高度數據驅動的,無論是運算方法、演算法方法還是數據驅動方法。所以我認為基本趨勢並沒有改變。我們有 4 個新的成長動力,4 種新的資料中心成長方式。當然,第一種是推理。我們在那方面取得了很大進展。T4表現非常出色。我認為我們在T4方面會取得相當大的成功。你只需要一直這麼說。它採用第二代 Tensor Core,功耗為 75 瓦。你可以把它用於訓練。你可以用它來進行推理。你可以用它來進行遠端圖形處理。你可以把它用於高效能運算。它幾乎可以完美適應任何超大規模資料中心。第二種方法是資料分析。這對我們來說是全新的嘗試。你必須知道,大數據以及利用數據預測市場動態在零售、電子商務、醫​​療保健、金融服務等領域都非常重要。而且,一直以來都沒有採取快速有效的措施來解決人們的這個問題。由於 CUDA 的靈活性以及我們架構的效能,在去年,我們重新設計了整個資料分析堆疊,以便加速其運作。它叫做 RAPIDS。這份工作真的非常重要,我希望能夠定期向大家報告最新進展。由於圖靈的出現,渲染對我們來說是一個全新的市場。最後,我們可以加速渲染出逼真的影像。世界上有數百萬台伺服器驅動渲染農場,而且它們還在定期升級。最後,我們之所以能與 CSP 合作取得成功,是因為我們很容易聯繫他們。但世界上的企業數量眾多,分佈廣泛,而且都是規模龐大的產業。而且我們公司的銷售覆蓋範圍還不足以讓我們接觸到每家醫療保健公司、每一家保險公司和每家零售公司。而這正是我們合作夥伴網絡發揮作用的地方。我們與惠普公司建立了良好的合作關係。我們與戴爾、思科和IBM都建立了良好的合作關係。現在我們已經與儲存供應商建立了合作關係,原因在於大多數大數據問題都需要大量的儲存空間。他們倆——他們都看到了,他們都看到了我們創造的機會。我們齊心協力創建了預先配置的、經過最佳化和調整的系統,這些高性能係統可以直接帶入公司,架設並安裝。我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功。因此,我們有 4 種不同的方式來發展我們的資料中心業務,我們對此充滿熱情。我對此持樂觀態度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • First I had a clarification, Colette. I just wanted to clarify what the mix is assumed for the fiscal Q1 guidance? Are you kind of assuming that datacenter and gaming are both kind of flat sequentially? And then I guess my question was can you help us sort of shape the revenue through the year? To get to your full year guidance, you have to add roughly maybe $1.3 billion, $1.5 billion from where you are in fiscal Q1. How does that shape through the year?

    首先我需要澄清一下,科萊特。我只是想確認一下,第一財季的績效指引假設了哪些資產組合?你是不是覺得資料中心和遊戲產業的發展趨勢都比較平穩?然後我想問的是,您能否幫我們規劃全年的收入?要達到全年預期目標,大約需要在第一財季的基礎上增加 13 億到 15 億美元。這趨勢在一年中會如何發展?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Our guidance for the next quarter is a makeup of many different types of options across our market segment. We feel confident in terms of that roll-up, as we've provided the guidance today. And we'll just have to see how that ends out. With the expectation that we will be flat or slightly down for the full year, you are correct in some case that we're growing to have to build up to that over the course of the several next quarters. Likely, the second half of the year, we'll definitely be stronger than the first half of the year, and that is our expectation at this time.

    是的。我們對下一季的業績展望涵蓋了我們市場細分領域的多種不同類型選擇。我們對此次整合充滿信心,因為我們今天已經提供了相關指引。我們只能拭目以待了。預計全年業績將持平或略有下降,在某些情況下,你的說法是正確的,我們需要在接下來的幾個季度中逐步實現這一目標。下半年,我們很可能會比上半年表現得更好,這是我們目前的期望。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Tim, one of the things to keep in mind is that we have 4 growth drivers. We have 4 growth businesses. Our datacenter business is growing. It's unquestionably that our footprint is larger than ever. Our pro viz business is growing. Our workstation business now has 3 ways to grow. One is rendering. The second is data science -- data scientists are now a workstation customer. That has never happened before. And our software stack with Turing, turns a workstation into an ideal data science workstation. And the third is, finally, we're able to make workstations into notebooks. And they're delightfully thin, using all the same technologies that talked about for gaming notebooks. And so workstations is a growth business. And then lastly, our automotive is going to be a growth business. We've been investing, as you know, in self-driving cars. And this year, we announced entry into Level 2+, our first foot into the mainstream marketplace of autonomous vehicles. And the first design win is Volvo, and we have others to announce. And so I think this is going to be a good year for self-driving cars as well. So we have 4 growth businesses. Our 4 core businesses are all growing.

    是的,提姆,需要記住的一點是,我們有 4 個成長驅動因素。我們有4個成長型業務。我們的資料中心業務正在成長。毫無疑問,我們的影響力比以往任何時候都更大。我們的專業視覺化業務正在成長。我們的工作站業務現在有 3 種發展途徑。一是渲染。第二點是資料科學-資料科學家現在也是工作站使用者。這種情況以前從未發生過。我們的軟體堆疊結合 Turing,可以將工作站變成理想的資料科學工作站。第三,我們終於能夠將工作站變成筆記型電腦了。它們非常輕薄,採用了與遊戲筆記型電腦相同的技術。因此,工作站是一個成長型業務。最後,我們的汽車業務將會是成長型業務。如您所知,我們一直在投資自動駕駛汽車。今年,我們宣布進入 L2+ 級別,這是我們邁入自動駕駛汽車主流市場的第一步。第一個得標設計客戶是沃爾沃,我們還有其他客戶即將宣布。所以我認為今年對自動駕駛汽車來說也將會是美好的一年。所以我們目前有4個增長型業務。我們的四大核心業務都在成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • First, I wanted to get again at the mix. Colette, you -- this is a question for Colette. You have said that mix was going to be the primary driver of your gross margins. And I know that sequentially they're up, but if I correct for the inventory write-down in Q4, the normalized gross margin this quarter was 61.7%. And so you're guiding it to 59%, so it's down 270 basis points sequentially on flat revenues. So do I take from that guidance that that's an indicator of the mix between the businesses, it's the primary driver of that gross margin degradation? Is there something else going on that we should be aware of?

    首先,我想再次參與混音。科萊特,是你──這個問題要問科萊特。您曾說過,產品組合將是影響毛利率的主要因素。我知道按季度來看,它們的成長是正常的,但如果我修正第四季的庫存減值,那麼本季的正常毛利率為 61.7%。因此,你們將其預期定為 59%,季減 270 個基點,而營收保持不變。所以,我是否可以從該指導意見中得出結論:這表明各業務之間的組合存在問題,而這正是導致毛利率下降的主要驅動因素?還有其他我們應該注意的事情嗎?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Stacy, we'll start with that first question on gross margin. You're correct, mix is still the primary driver of our gross margin every single quarter. You have correctly reduced -- or excuse me, changed our Q4 numbers to remove the overall inventory write-down. So when you look at Q1, there is a mix around our products that we plan on shipping by platforms but also within our gaming business and within our data center business. We also have different gross margins that would influence. This is our best estimate that we have at this time, and we'll see as we move through the year.

    謝謝,Stacy,我們就先從毛利率這個問題開始吧。沒錯,產品組合仍然是我們每季毛利率的主要驅動因素。您已正確地減少了——或者更準確地說,是修改了我們第四季度的數字,以消除整體庫存減值。因此,從第一季來看,我們計劃透過各種平台交付的產品種類繁多,包括我們的遊戲業務和資料中心業務。我們不同的毛利率也會產生影響。這是我們目前能做出的最佳估計,隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續觀察情況。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • So what do you think the bigger -- between those 2, whether it's intra-business mix or inter-business mix, between the businesses or within the businesses, which one of those is the biggest driver of the gross margin degradation sequentially into Q1?

    那麼,你認為在這兩方面中,無論是企業內部組合還是企業間組合,無論是企業之間還是企業內部,哪一個才是導致第一季毛利率環比下降的最大驅動因素?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think it's more on the inter business. Now keep in mind, our Q4 has a very low percentage of gaming as a total in terms of there and then a different mix within there as we move to the next quarter as well.

    我認為這比較是內部業務方面的問題。請注意,我們第四季度的遊戲業務佔比非常低,而且隨著我們進入下一個季度,遊戲業務的組成也會有所不同。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • So you think it's the mix between the businesses within, like you said inter, is that mix between the businesses that you think is the bigger driver then?

    所以你認為,就像你剛才說的,企業內部各業務之間的組合,是你認為這種企業之間的組合才是更大的驅動因素嗎?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • The mix of the intra, both within the segments as well as between the segments.

    內部成分的混合,既包括段內成分,也包括段間成分。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. For my follow-up, Jensen, you and Colette, I guess you mentioned the datacenter was growing. But if I got full year revenue sort of flat to down slightly, and I've got gaming revenues down a bit like you said and I have pro viz and auto growing, it's kind of really hard for me within the envelope of that guidance to get datacenter growing much if at all. I mean, it could even be down within that. I mean, how are you thinking about the idea of datacenter growing within the context of the full year guidance that you've given?

    好的。Jensen,我還有一個後續問題,你和Colette,我想你們都提到過資料中心正在發展壯大。但是,如果我全年的收入基本上持平或略有下降,而且正如你所說,遊戲收入也略有下降,再加上我有專業可視化和自動增長功能,那麼在目前的指導範圍內,我很難讓數據中心實現大幅增長,甚至根本無法增長。我的意思是,它甚至可能就在那裡面。我的意思是,在您給予的全年業績指引中,您如何看待資料中心的成長?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Well, in the short term, in near term, we have relatively limited visibility. We don't think it's going to remain this way. And with a little bit of tailwind, I think we could have a fairly good year. And so we'll just see how it turns out. This is our year guidance for now, and we'll update you as we go. The fundamental dynamics doesn't change. The fact of the matter is the world needs more computing. And a lot of that computing is related to machine learning, data analytics, deep learning. It's related to the things that we're working on. And we have 4 new ways to grow our datacenter business. I think our deep learning position is as good as ever. Our scientific computing position is as good as ever. And we have 4 new ways to grow. We have inference, we have data analytics and machine learning. We have rendering. And now we're taking that entire stack to the enterprise. And so I think we have the right strategy. We have the best platform. And the utilization -- the utility of it is really fantastic. And so with a little bit of a tailwind, I think we could have a fairly good year, and we'll just report it as we go.

    嗯,就短期而言,就近期而言,我們的能見度相對有限。我們認為這種情況不會一直持續下去。如果能稍微順風一點,我認為我們今年可能會有相當不錯的成績。所以,我們就拭目以待吧。這是我們目前的年度指導方針,我們會隨時更新進度。基本規律不會改變。事實是,世界需要更多的運算能力。而其中許多計算都與機器學習、數據分析、深度學習有關。這和我們正在做的事情有關。我們還有 4 種發展資料中心業務的新方法。我認為我們在深度學習領域的地位依然穩固。我們的科學計算實力依然強勁。我們有 4 種新的成長方式。我們擁有推理技術、數據分析技術和機器學習技術。我們有渲染圖。現在,我們將整個技術堆疊推廣到企業級應用。所以我認為我們的策略是正確的。我們擁有最好的平台。而它的利用率——它的實用性真的非常棒。所以,只要稍微有點順風,我認為我們今年可能會有相當不錯的成績,我們會隨時向大家報告情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wanted to ask about again, competition in datacenter. AMD on their call had talked about graphics in their datacenter business being as big as server, which is sort of north of $100 million a quarter, which surprised me. My sense is they're doing quite a bit different applications than you guys are. But maybe if you can just give us some context around what they're doing and how you see the competition coming up from within other graphics vendors.

    我想再次詢問資料中心領域的競爭情況。AMD 在電話會議上談到,其資料中心業務的圖形業務規模與伺服器業務規模相當,每季收入超過 1 億美元,這讓我感到驚訝。我的感覺是,他們使用的應用方式和你們的應用方式有很多不同。但或許您可以為我們介紹他們正在做的事情,以及您如何看待其他圖形供應商的競爭。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Our data center business is really focused on computing, and we just don't -- we don't see anybody. Our primary competitor is CPUs. That's really the starting of it and the ending of it. And it's very clear. The vast majority of the world's data center only runs on CPUs today. But the advance of technology has slowed. And it's creeping along at a few percent a year, and unfortunately, that's just not good enough. And so either datacenters are going to continue to increase in CapEx or they're going to have to find a new approach. And I think people are fairly enthusiastic about University, about accelerated computing. And I think our position is really quite good. And so I would say that those are largely the positions. If you think about competitively comparing our GPU to a competitor's latest GPU, I think the expectation was really high, and didn't turn out quite that way. I think our -- we've established that the Turing energy efficiency is much better. I think we've established that NVIDIA's Tensor Core architecture as a result allows our Volta to be 4x the performance of the highest end of the alternative. And the T4 is 1/4 the power at the same performance. And so the benefit of having great architectural advantage is a really rich software stack, and engineering that resulted in the energy efficiency that we've achieved, generation in, generation out, I think those are really great advantages. And then lastly, because of the broad reach of our architecture and OEM or a cloud service provider can adopt our architecture, and the utility of it is going to be greater because there's just a lot more applications. And the best way to reduce cost for any utility is to increase its utility. And I think that that's -- that our position there is really strong as you could imagine.

    我們的資料中心業務真正專注於計算,我們根本不會——我們看不到任何人。我們的主要競爭對手是CPU。這就是事情的開始,也是事情的結束。這一點非常清楚。目前,世界上絕大多數資料中心都只使用CPU運作。但科技進步的速度已經放緩。而且每年增速只有幾個百分點,很遺憾,這遠遠不夠。因此,資料中心要麼繼續增加資本支出,要麼就必須找到新的方法。我認為人們對大學、對加速運算都相當熱情。我認為我們的處境相當不錯。所以我認為,這些基本上就是我們目前的觀點。如果將我們的 GPU 與競爭對手的最新 GPU 進行直接比較,我認為人們的期望值非常高,但結果卻並非如此。我認為我們已經證實,圖靈架構的能源效率要好得多。我認為我們已經證實,NVIDIA 的 Tensor Core 架構使得我們的 Volta 處理器效能是同類產品最高階產品的 4 倍。T4 的功率只有原來的四分之一,但性能卻相同。因此,擁有強大的架構優勢帶來的好處是擁有非常豐富的軟體堆疊,以及工程技術,從而實現了我們所達到的代際能源效率,我認為這些都是非常大的優勢。最後,由於我們的架構覆蓋範圍廣,OEM 或雲端服務供應商可以採用我們的架構,其效用將會更大,因為應用程式場景會更多。降低任何公用事業成本的最佳方法是提高其效用。我認為,正如你所能想像的那樣,我們在那裡的地位非常穩固。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

    你的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 與 Cowen 的合作系列。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • I have just a couple of questions. The first one, Jensen, it seemed like the Turing platform is delivering some amazing results. But as you talked about relying on some new software features to do it. I wonder if you might talk about any steps you're taking in the road map to really upgrade performance for the installed base of games, given the time that it might take for some of those software features to roll out. And then secondly, you noted in the pre-announcement something about the write-down having to do with DRAM. I mean, obviously, that commodity pricing has been volatile. Colette, is there anything you can talk about, about how big of an effect that might have on the business and on pricing overall?

    我只有幾個問題。第一個是 Jensen,圖靈平台似乎取得了一些驚人的成果。但正如你所說,要依靠一些新的軟體功能來實現這一點。考慮到某些軟體功能的推出可能需要一些時間,我想知道您是否可以談談您在路線圖中正在採取哪些措施來真正提升已安裝遊戲的效能。其次,你在預告中提到,減記與 DRAM 有關。我的意思是,很顯然,大宗商品價格一直波動很大。科萊特,您能否談談這可能會對業務和整體定價產生多大的影響?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, thanks a lot, Matt. First of all, the Turing architecture is the highest-performing architecture at every single price point. And it's a big jump from our last generation in every single way. Without ray tracing, the Turing architecture is the first GPU to do concurrent floating point and integer operations at the same time. The instruction per clock of the Turing processor is so much better than our last generation, so much better than what's available in the marketplace. The cache architecture is a big improvement, and you can just see it in all of the existing games. If you just measure the existing games without touching anything, Turing gives you a big boost. And that's before we talked about ray tracing. And we've already spoken about ray tracing earlier, Matt. And we know that every single game that are coming out, we're working with the developers to incorporate RTX technology. And a very, very big deal, both Epic with Unreal engine and Unity engine are going to incorporate Ray tracing. It is very, very clear that the next generation of computer graphics is ray tracing. And all of the work that we've done with RTX to move the industry forward is well worth it. But remember, that's just the graphics part of Turing. Turing comes with it several new opportunities for growth for us. The first is, of course, advancing games. Advancing games for notebooks, advancing computer graphics, photorealistic rendering for film. All the work that we've done with Tensor Core that we just talked about. It's our second-generation Tensor Core, making it great for training as well as inference, a big leap for us for inference. And then lastly, all of the work that we're doing for data analytics and machine learning, we'll take advantage of all the capabilities of Turing. And so Turing is a big deal for us. And that's one of the reasons why last year was so busy for us as we put Turing into workstations, into data centers, into clouds, into rendering, into video games. And so Turing is really a gigantic leap for us architecturally. We're really excited by it. It's -- I think that the turbulent Q4 kind of overshadowed all of it. But in the final analysis, I think Turing was a home run for us.

    是的,非常感謝你,馬特。首先,圖靈架構是每個價位上效能最高的架構。與上一代相比,這在各方面都是一次巨大的飛躍。即使沒有光線追蹤技術,圖靈架構也是第一個能夠同時進行浮點運算和整數運算的GPU。圖靈處理器的每時脈週期指令數比上一代產品好得多,也比市面上現有的產品好得多。快取架構是一項重大改進,你可以在所有現有的遊戲中看到這一點。如果你只是測量現有遊戲而不做任何改動,圖靈演算法就能為你帶來很大的提升。那還是在我們討論光線追蹤之前。我們之前已經討論過光線追蹤了,馬特。我們知道,每一款即將推出的遊戲,我們都在與開發商合作,將 RTX 技術融入其中。還有一件非常非常重要的事情,Epic Games的虛幻引擎和Unity引擎都將加入光線追蹤技術。很明顯,下一代電腦圖形技術就是光線追蹤。我們為推動 RTX 產業發展所做的一切工作都是值得的。但請記住,這只是圖靈系統的圖形部分。圖靈為我們帶來了幾個新的發展機會。首先,當然是推動遊戲發展。推動筆記型電腦遊戲的發展,推動電腦繪圖技術的發展,實現電影的逼真渲染。我們剛才提到的所有關於 Tensor Core 的工作。這是我們的第二代 Tensor Core,它非常適合訓練和推理,這對我們的推理能力來說是一次巨大的飛躍。最後,我們所有在資料分析和機器學習方面所做的工作,都將充分利用 Turing 的所有功能。所以圖靈對我們來說意義重大。這也是為什麼去年我們如此忙碌的原因之一,因為我們將 Turing 架構應用到了工作站、資料中心、雲端、渲染和電玩遊戲中。因此,圖靈架構對我們來說確實是個巨大的架構飛躍。我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為——動蕩的第四季度掩蓋了所有其他因素。但歸根究底,我認為圖靈對我們來說是個巨大的成功。

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • And to also answer your question regarding DRAM prices. Yes, they have definitely been volatile over the historical period. It is great to see them coming down in price. Over the long term, yes, that is beneficial to us from a gross margin perspective. So if we look out to the horizon later, we will probably be able to incorporate that into our gross margins.

    另外,我也想回答您關於DRAM價格的問題。是的,從歷史角度來看,它們的價格確實波動很大。很高興看到它們的價格下降。從長遠來看,從毛利率的角度來看,這對我們來說是有利的。所以,如果我們展望未來,或許能夠將其納入我們的毛利率中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

  • Kind of building on the discussion around the Turing platform and particularly to the gaming market, I'm curious, you mentioned in your prepared comments pricing of these new solutions was a bit of an inhibitor. Has the company invoked any changes in their pricing strategy around Turing? And then also, I'd be interested at can you help us frame how important China is to the gaming segment? And whether or not you're assuming that the China market rebounds in your annual assumption?

    延續之前關於圖靈平台,特別是遊戲市場的討論,我很好奇,您在準備好的評論中提到,這些新解決方案的定價是一個阻礙因素。該公司是否針對 Turing 的定價策略做出了任何調整?另外,我還想請教您,您能否幫助我們闡述中國對遊戲產業的重要性?您在年度預測中是否假設中國市場會反彈?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • First of all, on the pricing part, the biggest inhibitor was that we didn't have -- we couldn't launch our midrange segment. The inability to launch 2060 was a big inhibitor for us. But we did so at CES. The launch is a great success. The reviews are fantastic. People loved 2060. The price point is great. And so now we have a great stack from the midrange all the way to enthusiasts. The other part which could have turned out better is at the time of the launch, there were so many special editions and there were so many overclocked versions that the price point appeared high. But now while we have MSRP pricing for all of our segments. And so that's terrific. China is an important market. China is an important market, and it's an important gaming market. And I have every confidence it's going to rebound.

    首先,在定價方面,最大的阻礙是我們沒有——我們無法推出我們的中階產品線。2060 計畫無法啟動對我們來說是一個很大的阻礙。但我們在CES上做到了。發表會非常成功。評論非常棒。人們喜歡2060。價格很划算。所以現在我們擁有了從中端到發燒友級別的豐富產品線。另一個本來可以做得更好的地方是,在發佈時,推出了太多特別版和超頻版,導致價格顯得偏高。但現在我們所有產品系列都有建議零售價。那真是太棒了。中國是一個重要的市場。中國是一個重要的市場,也是一個重要的遊戲市場。我完全相信它會反彈。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Mark Lipacis with Jefferies.

    你的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的馬克·利帕西斯。

  • Mark John Lipacis - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Mark John Lipacis - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Could you just -- a clarification, could you repeat what you said you thought the OpEx would grow in this fiscal year? And what is the -- where's the focus of that investment? To what extent is it R&D versus SG&A? And then maybe one layer deeper, where is the focus of the higher OpEx?

    您能否澄清一下,您能否重複一下您之前所說的您認為本財年營運支出會成長多少?那麼,這項投資的重點是什麼?研發費用與銷售、管理及行政費用之間,究竟有多少是研發支出?然後,或許可以進一步深入探討,更高營運成本的重點在哪裡?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure, I'll start off. To repeat what we indicated in our transcript, we plan to increase OpEx in the high single digits over where we finished in terms of fiscal year '19. That is related to our opportunities that we see in front of us, gaming, AI as well as self-driving cars. Our focus in terms of investment, we are a very R&D-heavy significant company. But there are investments across the board, both in R&D as well as what we need in terms of go-to-market strategies to obtain these higher markets in front of us.

    當然,我先來。正如我們在成績單中所述,我們計劃將營運支出提高到接近 2019 財年的水平。這與我們面前的機會有關,例如遊戲、人工智慧以及自動駕駛汽車。從投資角度來看,我們是一家研發投入非常大的重要公司。但是,我們在各方面都有投資,包括研發以及我們為獲得眼前這些更高層次的市場所需要採取的市場進入策略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

    你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • So I don't want to poke too many holes on the memory side and the downturn in gaming due to the crypto inventory. But if I think about kind of the gross margin profile, you guys almost reached 65%. So if I look out, let's call it a year or even call it 18 months and make it a -- more of a kind of a long-term target, is there any reason why you guys can't get back up to kind of the mid-60s level?

    所以我不想過多地批評內存方面的問題以及加密貨幣庫存導致的電子遊戲市場下滑。但如果我考慮一下毛利率狀況,你們的毛利率幾乎達到了 65%。所以,如果我展望未來,比如說一年,或者哪怕是 18 個月,把它設定為一個長期目標,你們有什麼理由不能回到 60 多歲的水平呢?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. On your gross margin question, yes, we still have drivers within the mix of our products that allow us to grow our gross margin over the long term. Absolutely. And there is definitely a goal for us to continue doing that. So the focus in terms of what the cost components of what we do but also moving the entire portfolio into the higher value-added platforms that we sell. So over the long term, absolutely, all of those things are still in place and intact that we can do. And we'll look quarter to quarter to give the best guidance that we can to help you see that.

    是的。關於您提出的毛利率問題,是的,我們的產品組合中仍然有一些因素可以推動我們實現毛利率的長期成長。絕對地。我們當然會繼續朝著這個目標努力。因此,我們的重點不僅在於我們所做事情的成本組成,還在於將整個產品組合轉移到我們銷售的更高附加價值的平台。所以從長遠來看,絕對如此,所有這些我們可以做的事情仍然有效且完好無損。我們會按季度進行分析,盡我們所能提供最佳指導,幫助您了解情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

    你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩‧柯蒂斯。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Obviously, a pause in datacenter, particularly the hyperscale, is pretty well documented. I'm just kind of curious to your perspective, particularly being AI still a growth area versus -- or run rate being memory and CPUs. Can you give any perspective as to how widespread it is? Maybe number of customers or geographic perspective. And just kind of curious how AI is affected with this greater slowdown.

    顯然,資料中心,特別是超大規模資料中心的停滯已經有很多文獻記載。我只是有點好奇你的看法,特別是人工智慧仍然是一個成長領域,而記憶體和 CPU 的成長速度則相對較慢。您能否就其普遍程度提供一些看法?或許是客戶數量或地理位置的問題。我只是有點好奇,這次經濟成長放緩會對人工智慧產生什麼影響。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Blayne, the hyperscalers, their pause is probably the most dramatic. We still see a lot of activity in enterprise. It's just a much smaller base for us, but we expect it to be a much larger base in the future. And the reason for that is because most of the enterprises today don't use deep learning, they use an approach called machine learning. They might use things like decision trees or graph analytics or regressions or clustering or things like that, algorithms like that. And they'll run data analytics applications for business intelligence on a large amount of data. And they might be running it on a -- on top of a Spark stack that was created out of Berkeley and open source from Databricks. And so there's a -- if you recognize some of these things, that's what health care companies do and financial services companies do and retail companies do. They use it for fraud detection, predicting inventory, trying to make the best matches between riders and drivers and trying to predict which route to take to deliver food, dinner to you. And so those kinds of applications, most of the developers today use machine learning in large -- and big data analytics. And so we invested in a stack called RAPIDS and built our architecture called T4. And we're in the process of partnering with large IT companies to take the stack and the solution out to the world's enterprise. And so I expect enterprise to be a fairly exciting growth opportunity for us. Meanwhile, the CSPs, their pause will end. The amount of computation they do is increasing. More and more of them are using deep learning. And we have inference opportunity with the work that we did with T4 and TensorRT. And so we've got a lot of exciting opportunities to go.

    是的。布萊恩,超大規模資料中心營運商的停頓可能是最引人注目的。企業領域依然非常活躍。對我們來說,這只是一個很小的基地,但我們預計未來它將成為一個更大的基地。原因在於,如今大多數企業不使用深度學習,而是使用一種稱為機器學習的方法。他們可能會使用決策樹、圖分析、迴歸分析、聚類分析或類似的演算法。他們將運行數據分析應用程序,用於對大量數據進行商業智慧分析。他們可能正在運行它——運行在由伯克利大學創建、Databricks 開源的 Spark 堆疊之上。所以,如果你認出其中的一些事情,你會發現醫療保健公司、金融服務公司和零售公司都在做同樣的事情。他們利用它進行欺詐檢測、預測庫存、努力實現騎手和司機之間的最佳匹配,以及努力預測將食物或晚餐送到您手中的最佳路線。因此,如今大多數開發者都在這類應用中使用機器學習進行大型——以及大數據分析。因此,我們投資了一個名為 RAPIDS 的技術棧,並建立了我們自己的架構,名為 T4。我們正在與大型 IT 公司合作,將該技術堆疊和解決方案推廣到全球企業。因此,我認為企業對我們來說將是一個相當令人興奮的成長機會。同時,CSP的暫停期將結束。他們的計算量正在增加。越來越多的人開始使用深度學習。我們利用 T4 和 TensorRT 所做的工作,獲得了推斷的機會。所以,我們有很多令人興奮的機會可以實現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

    你的下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮耶·費拉古。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • A question for Colette. I'm trying to figure out how your position with cloud data centers evolved last year in financial year 2019. So if I look at the cloud CapEx, they were up about 70%. If I look at the CPU going into the cloud, according to Intel, it was up about 60%. So I was wondering how much you guys have been increasing revenues within your cloud business? Did you grow faster than CPUs? Did you grow faster than the overall CapEx? And then I have a follow-up in 2020.

    問科萊特一個問題。我想了解您在 2019 財年(上個財年)在雲端資料中心領域的業務發展。所以,如果我看一下雲端運算資本支出,它們增加了約 70%。如果我看一下進入雲端的 CPU 使用量,根據英特爾的數據,成長了約 60%。所以我想知道你們的雲端業務收入成長了多少?你的成長速度比CPU還快嗎?你的成長速度是否超過了整體資本支出?然後我在 2020 年還有後續報導。

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. Let me start on that piece. As we talked about earlier on the call, our hyperscale and our hyperscales, many of them are also cloud providers, did start to slow down in terms of their purchasing in the latter half of the year. But the overall growth rate, as you can see from our data center business, grew more than 50% for the full year. Now even with that strong growth, we are still a very small percentage of overall CapEx that we see in cloud providers or the overall hyperscales. We are likely one of their top priorities of areas where they need to grow in terms of in their data center as they focus on AI, as they focus on the cloud businesses and the importance of that compute is necessary. But we are still a very, very small percentage of it. So slow down in the second half of the year, full year growth, phenomenal growth of 50%. And we track with the (inaudible).

    當然。讓我先從這部分開始。正如我們之前在電話會議中討論的那樣,我們的超大規模資料中心以及我們的許多超大規模資料中心(其中許多也是雲端服務供應商)在今年下半年的採購速度確實開始放緩。但從我們的資料中心業務可以看出,全年整體成長率超過 50%。即使實現瞭如此強勁的成長,我們在雲端服務供應商或整個超大規模資料中心的總資本支出中所佔的比例仍然非常小。我們很可能是他們在資料中心發展方面的首要重點領域之一,因為他們專注於人工智慧和雲端運算業務,而運算能力的重要性不容忽視。但我們仍然只佔其中非常非常小的一部分。所以下半年成長放緩,全年成長,實現驚人的 50% 成長。我們追蹤(聽不清楚)。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • But this 50% growth, is that for your overall datacenter business? Is that what like specifically your cloud hyperscale business grew as well? Or did that grow even faster with that?

    但這個 50% 的成長是指你們整個資料中心業務的成長嗎?您的雲端超大規模業務成長情況也類似嗎?或者說,這種情況發展得更快了?

  • Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

    Colette M. Kress - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, depending on the quarter, we will have a mix of what is hyperscale growth or what is cloud. And again, in the core -- in the fourth quarter, that was not a growth opportunity for us. But earlier in the year, definitely it was.

    是的,根據季度不同,我們會兼顧超大規模成長和雲端運算兩種業務模式。再次強調,在核心業務方面—第四季度,這對我們來說並不是成長機會。但今年早些時候,情況確實如此。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Great. And then quickly maybe, Jensen, on 2020, so you seem to be very cautious on the datacenter outlook. When we listen to players like Google and Facebook and others, they all seem to be seem like very keen to grow their overall spending this year. And when we listen to other providers around you, they all seem to be -- I mean they all demonstrate a bit of a confidence that in the second half, spending should resume. Is that just because they are being more optimistic than you? Do they see something you don't see? What do you hear from your clients about the second half?

    偉大的。然後,Jensen,或許很快就能談到 2020 年了,所以你似乎對資料中心的前景非常謹慎。當我們聽到Google、Facebook 等公司的說法時,他們似乎都非常熱衷於今年增加整體支出。當我們聽取周圍其他供應商的意見時,他們似乎都——我的意思是,他們都表現出一定的信心,認為下半年消費應該會恢復。是因為他們比你樂觀嗎?他們看到你沒看到的東西了嗎?你的客戶對下半年的情況有什麼回饋?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • Well, we're enthusiastic about the second half. We're enthusiastic about our position, and we're enthusiastic about the solution we offer. And Pierre, as you know, we've also expanded our application and our market reach. We guided -- I think probably the biggest takeaway is we guided flight to slightly down for the whole year for the whole number. We do have 4 growth drivers. And maybe the best way to think about it is we should just wait and see how it goes. I think we've -- considering where we are, I feel pretty good about our guidance, and -- but I feel even better about our strategic position. And so I look forward to working through the year with you guys.

    我們對下半場充滿期待。我們對自己的地位充滿信心,也對我們提供的解決方案充滿信心。皮埃爾,你也知道,我們也擴大了應用範圍和市場覆蓋率。我們引導—我認為最大的收穫可能是我們引導航班數量全年略有下降。我們有 4 個成長驅動因素。或許最好的方法就是靜觀其變。我認為,考慮到我們目前的處境,我對我們的指導方針感覺相當不錯,而且,我對我們的戰略地位感覺更好。因此,我期待著與大家一起度過這一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your last question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JP Morgan.

    你的最後一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾與摩根大通的合作系列。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • On the China gaming weakness, is it the slower economic environment? Or is it sort of government policy related? Because we know that the China government has had a freeze on new gaming approvals, although they've recently started to approve new games. This ban is in place, I think since the first half of last year. So given what you know of the business, how much of the China weakness is coming from the China gaming bans? Or is this just overall slower economic environment?

    中國遊戲市場疲軟,是否與經濟環境放緩有關?還是這與政府政策有關?因為我們知道中國政府曾經一度凍結新遊戲的審批,儘管他們最近已經開始批准新遊戲。我認為這項禁令從去年上半年就開始實施了。鑑於你對這個行業的了解,中國市場的疲軟有多少是因為中國的遊戲禁令造成的?還是這只是整體經濟環境放緩所致?

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • I don't know that we could tear that apart, tease that apart, Harlan. We just know that China, the consumer market is relatively slow towards the end of the year. But the China economy is in the final analysis of growth economy, and so we're looking forward to it recovering. And gaming is one of the most important pastimes of that culture, and so I'm excited about our prospects there. All of the things that we're seeing in the near term, Colette, has done a really good job describing. And as we leave the bottom and leave this inventory issue behind us, we're super well positioned. We have a full stack of RTX, the Turing architecture is fantastic. It is unquestionably the best in the world. We have the best performance at every single price point. And we have great notebooks that the market can now buy. And so I'm looking forward to reporting our status with you guys as the year goes on. This should be a good year.

    哈蘭,我不知道我們能否把它拆解開來,把它剖析開來。我們只知道,中國消費市場在年底相對放緩。但從本質上講,中國經濟是成長型經濟,因此我們期待它能夠復甦。遊戲是該文化中最重要的消遣方式之一,所以我對我們在該領域的前景感到興奮。科萊特對我們近期將會看到的所有事情都做了非常精彩的描述。隨著我們走出低谷,擺脫庫存問題,我們處於非常有利的地位。我們擁有全套RTX產品線,圖靈架構非常出色。毫無疑問,它是世界上最好的。我們在每個價位上都擁有最佳性能。我們現在有很棒的筆記型電腦,市場上可以買到。因此,我期待著在今年餘下的時間裡向大家報告我們的最新進展。今年應該會是個好年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back over to Jensen for any closing remarks.

    現在我將把電話轉回給詹森,請他作總結發言。

  • Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

    Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Director

  • 2018 was a record year, but it was a disappointing finish. This quarter, we expect to put the channel inventory issue behind us and get back on track. As the pioneer of accelerated computing, our position is unique and strong. And the opportunities ahead in graphics, high-performance computing, AI and autonomous machines remain enormous. We are as enthusiastic about these growth opportunities as ever. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today.

    2018 年是創紀錄的一年,但結局令人失望。本季度,我們預計將解決渠道庫存問題,重回正軌。作為加速運算領域的先驅,我們擁有獨特而強大的地位。圖形學、高效能運算、人工智慧和自主機器等領域的未來機會依然龐大。我們對這些成長機會的熱情一如既往。感謝各位今天蒞臨。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。