Nucor Corp (NUE) 2012 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Nucor Corporation second quarter of 2012 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and the instructions will come at that time.

  • Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectation and information.

  • Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions. There can be no assurance future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risk and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10K and subsequently filed in 10-Q, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website.

  • The forward-looking statements may be -- I'm sorry, the forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Now, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan DiMicco, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please, go ahead, sir.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Toya. Good afternoon, this is Dan DiMicco, Nucor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's Senior Management Team.

  • Our President and Chief Operating Officer, John Ferriola, Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias, and our other Executive Vice Presidents, Jim Darsey, responsible for our Bar group, Keith Grass, responsible for our David J. Joseph material handling and scrap group, Ladd Hall, responsible for our flat-rolled products group, Ham Lott, heading up fabricated products group, and Joe Stratman, who is responsible for Business Development and our plate and beam businesses.

  • First, as always, and most importantly, we want to thank everyone on our Nucor, Harris Steel, David J. Joseph, Duferdofin, and NuMit steel technology teams for your excellent work in today's extremely challenging economic and steel market conditions. We are tremendously proud of your unrivaled commitment to working safely, taking care of all of our customers, building a stronger and more profitable Nucor.

  • You are, and always will be, Nucor's greatest asset and our true competitive advantage. Thank you all. We also want to extend a very warm welcome to the newest addition to our Nucor family. In late June, the 481 teammates of Skyline Steel joined the Nucor team.

  • As proven and valued partners for over two decades, we are extremely excited to welcome you into Nucor. Together, our combined team is uniquely positioned to grow in the steel piling business. Skyline gives Nucor another attractive growth platform.

  • We are bringing together a North American market leader in the production of steel piling products, Nucor, and a North American market leader in the distribution of steel piling products and some of its manufacture, Skyline. Skyline's product portfolio includes age piling, sheet piling, and pipe piling which it fabricates itself. And, it's a company and management team that we know very well.

  • They have been one of Nucor-Yamato's most valued growth partners in this business from day 1. They are a significant consumer of our H piling and sheet piling products. Again, welcome to all of our Nucor Skyline teammates. I'll now ask our CFO, Jim Frias, to discuss our second quarter results and financial position.

  • He will be followed by John Ferriola, who will report on Nucor's operations and growth initiatives. And, I will conclude our presentation with some general comments on the economy and Nucor's growth strategy. Jim?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Dan, and good afternoon. Second quarter 2012 earnings of $0.35 per diluted share were at the low end of our guidance range of $0.35 to $0.40 per diluted share. Our second quarter results were negatively impacted by a non-cash charge of $8.5 million or $0.02 per diluted share due to purchase accounting charges and inner company profit eliminations related to our Skyline acquisition.

  • These costs were not factored into our guidance which was issued several days prior to the closing of the acquisition. Second quarter results also included an impairment charge of $0.09 per diluted share related to our Duferdofin Nucor joint venture located in Italy. This impairment charge was factored into our mid-quarter quantitative guidance. Nucor acquired its 50% in Duferdofin, a producer of beams and bars in July of 2008 for a cash purchase price of approximately $667 million.

  • Our $30 million impairment charge resulted from Duferdofin's disappointing performance through the first half of 2012 combined with increasing economic turmoil in Europe. It incorporates the impact o our fair value model of both greater losses in the near term and a slower than previously expected recovery to historic profitability.

  • Although our timing on this acquisition has proven to be poor in the short run we continue to view Duferdofin as a very attractive asset offering solid long term value. Nucor's second quarter operating performance reflected mixed trends across our diverse product portfolio. Profitability at our steel making business has been severely impacted by an import surge across most products.

  • The sheet steel markets have also been challenged by new domestic supply that began production in 2011. Lower scrap pricing has depressed the profitability of our scrap processing business. On the positive side, our downstream products business reported its first profitable quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008.

  • Nucor's fabricated construction products, joists and decking, rebar fabrication, and pre-engineered metal buildings returned to profitability as a result of market share gains, improved pricing, and effective management of costs. While first half of 2012 earnings decreased by 44% from the year ago level, cash generated from operations actually increased by more than 50% to $446 million. Nucor benefits from a counter cyclical cushion provided to our cash flow as lower scrap and steel prices reduce our working capital investment during downturns.

  • Nucor's consistent cash flow performance is also helped by our highly variable cost structure. Balance sheet strength remains another competitive advantage for Nucor. Standard & Poor's, in its July 10 report entitled North American Metals and Mining Companies Strongest to Weakest, again ranked Nucor number one for credit rating and credit outlook, among a universe of 72 companies.

  • Nucor was also the only metals and mining company in the group that S&P awarded a strong business risk profile due to our competitive position and profit performance relative to our peers. We are the only steel producer in North America to enjoy the very important competitive advantage of an investment grade credit rating. Globally, our credit rating is matched by only one other steel producer, Nippon Steel.

  • The benefits of our credit rating include a lower cost of capital, financial flexibility, and our position as the lowest risk counter-party for both customers and suppliers. Cash, short-term investments, and restricted cash totaled $2.2 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2012. Further to Nucor's strong liquidity, our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility is undrawn.

  • It does not mature until December 2016. We have no commercial paper outstanding. At the end of the second quarter, long term debt totaled $4.3 billion. We expect our leverage to decline as a result of long term debt maturities of $650 million in the fourth quarter of this year and an additional $250 million in 2013. Our plan is to fund those maturities by drawing from a healthy liquidity position and continued strong operating cash flow.

  • Current economic conditions remain very difficult. However, the Nucor team is aggressively taking advantage of opportunities arising in this environment to grow our companies long term earnings power. As we often say, Nucor uses cyclical downturns as opportunities to grow stronger. We are able to do this because of our conservative balance sheet, our healthy cash flow generation throughout the economic cycle, and a long term approach to managing our business.

  • In 2012, we are continuing to invest in projects that will grow our long term earnings power and provide attractive returns to our shareholders. In June, we completed the acquisition of Skyline Steel, the North American market leader in the distribution of steel piling products. The cash purchase price was approximately $684 million. Over the five year period ending in 2011, Skyline's annual EBITDA averaged $90 million.

  • Additionally, we expect to realize meaningful synergies from this acquisition. It is expected to be accretive to cash flow immediately and to earnings by the fourth quarter of this year. Our projected 2012 capital spending of approximately $1 billion includes a number of growth investments. The largest project is our Louisiana direct reduced iron raw materials facility currently under construction.

  • A number of other projects are being implemented throughout our upstream, steel making, and downstream businesses to develop new products, increase quality, and reduce costs. John Ferriola will update you on our recent progress implementing our capital spending plan.

  • In addition to allowing us to invest in attractive growth opportunities, Nucor's strong financial position and cash flow generation has enabled our company to reward our shareholders with impressive record on cash dividends. Nucor has increased its regular base dividend for 39 consecutive years. Our base quarterly dividend has increased by approximately 10 fold over the past 11 years reflecting the Nucor's team success in growing long-term earnings power.

  • For the third quarter of 2012 we expect to see a modest reduction in earnings from the second quarter level excluding the one-time charge of $0.09 per share and further purchase accounting and inner-company profit eliminations related to Skyline. Third quarter results should benefit from lower scrap costs and a likely improvement in customer buying patterns if scrap pricing stabilizes as we currently expect.

  • In addition, we're beginning to see the positive impacts of some reduction in sheet imports as well as recently shuttered capacity and reduced operating rates by newer domestic market entrants. Current efforts to raise sheet pricing above recent lows are meeting with some success.

  • However, global economic uncertainties -- uncertainty is a risk factor for the short-term outlook. Nucor will again follow our practice of providing quantitative guidance around the middle of the final month of the quarter. Nucor is in a position of strength to build on our companies long tradition of being effective stewards of our shareholders valuable capital.

  • We are excited by the opportunities we see ahead to reward our shareholders with very attractive long term returns. Our team will achieve this by growing Nucor's long term earnings power, rewarding Nucor shareholders with attractive dividends, and maintaining Nucor's strong balance sheet. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Dan?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Jim. I'll now ask John Ferriola to report our Nucor's operations and implementation of our growth initiatives. John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Thanks, Dan. Good afternoon. Let me begin by thanking all of our raw materials, steel making, and steel product teammates for your outstanding commitments to working safely and for taking care of Nucor's customers. Thank you, and please, keep it going.

  • We are very proud of the results our team is achieving in 2012's extremely challenging environment. And, we are extremely excited about the impressive work being done on our raw materials, steel making, and downstream product teams during these bad times to prepare Nucor for the good times ahead. Our team at Nucor Steel Louisiana made excellent progress during this year's first half on the construction of our new DRI plant in St. James Parish.

  • The heavy haul road from the Mississippi River to the facility is nearing completion. Piling and concrete work is complete in the core plant area. And, work has recently begun on the port which we expect to be completed by the end of this year.

  • Most importantly, we are on schedule for a mid-2013 start of DRI Production. Our construction team has done an outstanding job in overcoming the challenges that inevitably arise with an undertaking of this magnitude and scope. At the same time, this project is yet another great example of how our company succeeds by everyone working together.

  • And, a number of Nucor divisions have supported our Louisiana team with personnel and expertise to help in the areas of environmental, engineering, and hiring. And, of course, our divisions are major suppliers of material and equipment for the construction of the plant. Thank you to all of our teammates associated with this important project for working safely and working together towards an on time, on budget start.

  • Our Louisiana DRI project is a huge step forward implementing Nucor's raw material strategy. Combining Louisiana's annual capacity of over 2.5 million tons with our Trinidad plant's 2 million tons annual capacity brings us to about two-thirds of our goal to control from 6 to 7 million tons of annual capacity in high quality slap substitutes.

  • And, we expect our raw materials strategy to be a game changer in advancing Nucor's growth in the sheet and SBQ markets. Here is why. First, Nucor has already achieved world class performance in both quality and productivity in the DRI production at our Trinidad plant.

  • Second, our investments in natural gas assets have secured a long-term and low cost energy supply. Together, these provide us with an extremely attractive cost structure with the high quality iron units required to produce higher value-added, higher margin sheet and SBQ products.

  • I would like to highlight that Nucor sheet and SBQ mills are already growing their presence in one of the prime markets for high value-added steel, the automotive market. Through the first six months of 2012, our steel mill shipments into the automotive market increased approximately 20% over the prior year period.

  • And, more specifically, our direct shipments to our automotive OEM customers increased about 25% year-over-year. This is more evidence that we teach the claims by some financial market observers that Nucor is, quote, just a construction play.

  • Nucor's maintaining its leadership position in construction products while at the same time, expanding our participation in a number of other attractive value-added markets including automotive, energy, heavy equipment, consumer durables, agricultural, transportation, and industrial goods. The acquisition of Skyline Steel was another major second quarter 2012 development in the implementation of our growth strategy.

  • The opportunities it provides for profitable growth are numerous for both our steel making and our piling distribution businesses. Skyline will become a more valuable downstream consumer of Nucor's coil plate and sheet products. In addition, Skyline will develop synergies with our other downstream operations in providing value-added, one Nucor solutions to the construction industry.

  • Shortly after the acquisition of Skyline closed last month, Nucor-Yamato announced a $115 million project to add several new sheet piling sections. This announcement highlights the fact that Skyline provides Nucor-Yamato with excellent opportunities to expand its portfolio of sheet piling products. The Nucor-Yamato project will add several new sheet piling sections. These new offerings will increase the single sheet width by 22% and provide a lighter, stronger sheet covering more area at a lower installed cost.

  • This combined initiative is an excellent example of Nucor's time proven, highest return strategy for profitable growth, investments that optimize our existing operations. I also have good news to share about another investment that will increase Nucor's long-term earnings power. Our Hertford County, North Carolina plate mill team has begun hot commissioning on their new vacuum tank DS.

  • This new valuated capacity will build on the outstanding success of the heat treat line that began operations last year and continues to run at full capacity. Additionally, a normalizing line will be commissioned in 2013. These investments are expanding our plate mill groups value-added product mix into new applications including armor plate, aircraft quality alloys, offshore oil platforms, and petroleum refineries.

  • Two other major projects to increase our value-added portfolio, the vacuum tank degasser at our Hickman, Arkansas sheet mill and our wide light project at our Berkeley County, South Carolina sheet mill are continuing on time and on budget. In conclusion, our team's unrelenting focus remains on long-term, sustainable growth in Nucor's profitability. We are continuing Nucor's historical and highly successful strategy of preparing for the good times during the bad times.

  • Working together, our team is building an exciting and very rewarding future for all members of the Nucor family. Our teammates, our customers, and our shareholders. Thank you for your interest in our company. Dan?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, John. Day in and day out the news flow regarding our economy gives little reason for short-term optimism. The challenges are most definitely real and serious but the Nucor team firmly believes these problems, if defined and understood properly, all have solutions.

  • Our view of the situation is unchanged. The time is right, and long over due, to reinvigorate the American economy by seizing new opportunities in energy, infrastructure rebuilding, and growing a globally competitive US manufacturing sector that will prosper in an environment of rules-based free-trade and improved global competitiveness here at home.

  • Nucor's success over nearly five decades has always been driven by a long-term focus in running and growing our business. And, our team is bullish on the American people and their ability to do the right things over the long run. That is why we are busy building a stronger Nucor.

  • A stronger Nucor is one positioned to deliver the higher highs and higher lows in earnings power through success in economic cycles. In the last cyclical peak in the economy, 2008 to the end of 2012, Nucor will have invested more than $6.5 billion of capital by a disciplined execution of our multi-pronged long-term growth strategy.

  • That is why Nucor is primed and ready to generate higher highs in earnings once a sustainable and economic recovery inevitably arrives. That is why my confidence has never been greater that Nucor's best years are ahead of us. At this point in time, I'd be happy to take your questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

  • Kuni Chen.

  • Kuni Chen - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon, everybody.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Afternoon, Kuni.

  • Kuni Chen - Analyst

  • Hi. First off, there's been some controversy over the air permits down in Louisiana. Can you just give us an update there? What's the risk that that leads to some delays and what's your pathway to get this resolved in the timeline?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Rumors always abound, particularly on issues that concern how the environmental issues might be handled on a new project. The fact is we have zero concern. I repeat zero concern that the project will be delayed via permitting issues because our permits are in place, legal, and supported by the State.

  • And, actually, discussed openly by Lisa Jackson as being signs of a successful functioning of the EPA. Having said that, there are always nuisance suits that develop which are being dealt with and will in no way slowdown the project. Our biggest issue today on that project is the water level in the Mississippi River.

  • And, the good news lately is that the River Corps of Engineers is forecasting a nine inch rise because of rains in the Ohio Valley. So, keep your fingers crossed that the rain continues where it's needed both for the crops and for the Mississippi River. Anyone else like to make any comments on that? Ladd?

  • Ladd Hall - EVP

  • No, it's pretty valid.

  • Kuni Chen - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks, and -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • It might be worth noting, these permits have been thoroughly vetted, both in the public arena, as Dan mentioned, with the State agency and frankly, in the courts (inaudible). All of which gives us the confidence that Dan alluded to that construction will continue and we will complete this project on time.

  • Kuni Chen - Analyst

  • Okay, good to know. And, just as a follow-up on the automotive side, I know it's about 10% of your mix right now and as you know, other steel folks have a much higher proportional mix there.

  • Do you think we could see Nucor dedicating even more resources to growing your share in automotive and can you talk about how your strategy there may play out? Particularly from a sheet products perspective.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • The simple answer to that is yes. And, I'll ask John to elaborate on that.

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Yes, we've reported in the past that about 10% of our sheet shipments have gone into the automotive. And, frankly, those were numbers that we gave last year and it has increased since that time. It's higher today, it continues to grow. As we continue to develop more value-added products, we'll continue to grow in that market.

  • A good example of the investments that we're making to accomplish that is our project where we refer to as our wide, light project at Berkeley. The 72-inch wide sheet will give us more applications in the automotive arena as well as the vacuum tank degasser at our Hickman facility which will give us a better portfolio of what we call heat drawn steels and extreme heat drawn steels which are very, very commonly used in the automotive industry.

  • Today, on the sheet side, we're in the neighborhood of about 12% to 13% of our shipments going into automotive. And, I'll also point out that that's -- we've talked about sheet, but our participation in automotive through the SBQ product has also grown tremendously as Memphis continues to come on line with more and more qualifications going into automotive.

  • I guess my last comment that I'll make about our participation in automotive is this. We sell products today to virtually every domestic and new domestic automotive company in production. And, we're very proud of the fact that our team continues to grow in that very important market to us.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, John.

  • Kuni Chen - Analyst

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Michelle Applebaum, Steel Market.

  • Michelle Applebaum - Analyst

  • Hi, Steel Market Intelligence.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon.

  • Michelle Applebaum - Analyst

  • Hi, couple questions. I noticed that your reported price per ton dropped by 1.4% in the second quarter versus the first quarter but the market dropped about 6%. Was there a product mix shift in the quarter and how did that work?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • There was definitely some product mix shift during the quarter. Also, frankly, in the quarter, we were challenged with some imports that have continued to flood into the country. And, that was a challenge for us.

  • The fact that the overall pricing decreased is probably a function more of the overall economic conditions in the country. It's a challenge for us as it is for all of our -- for the industry. So, products, general economic conditions, imports, all are factors in the decrease.

  • Michelle Applebaum - Analyst

  • I guess I wasn't clear. I'm asking your prices went down very little relative to much less than the market. Was that about like more value-added or more higher price?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • It's a tribute to the great job that our commercial team does. So, I want to thank them all for that. It is definitely a function of the fact that we are moving higher into the value-added products.

  • And, our whole focus on a commercial effort by moving into more value-added products and through our commercial excellence program has been to make us more sticky to the customer. When you're more sticky to the customer it gives you greater pricing power. And, those are some of the reasons why we faired better than the industry as a whole in the quarter.

  • Michelle Applebaum - Analyst

  • Great, can I ask a second one?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Please.

  • Michelle Applebaum - Analyst

  • Okay, iron ore. When you -- I must have asked when you first started the iron I probably asked a bunch of times what are you going to do about iron? And, clearly waiting was validated. So, now what are you going to do about iron in Louisiana?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • The current strategy is to continue to feed the DRI plant in Trinidad and the new one will start up mid-'13 with supplies from our existing pellets suppliers for DRI pellets. And, as far as iron ore goes if there's something to talk about, if there's ever anything to talk about, we'll talk about it. But, thanks for the question.

  • Operator

  • Luke Folta, Jefferies.

  • Luke Folta - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon. First question I had was Jim, you threw out an average EBITDA for Skyline over the last five years, I think it was $90 million if I heard correctly.

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • That's correct.

  • Luke Folta - Analyst

  • Are you able to provide a trailing 12 month number? And, also can you give us the revenue over the five year time frame?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • No, we're not going to disclose either of those. I'd just say that over the five years there wasn't a lot of variation, it was pretty steady. There wasn't a peak or valley that was very pronounced, it was pretty steady.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • So, pleasingly so.

  • Luke Folta - Analyst

  • Okay. In regards to how much steel that you had sold them previously versus what you expect to do now, can you talk about that and maybe how much -- what those percentages were or just some rough sense?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • Joe, do you want to make any comments about that?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Joe Stratman. Joe?

  • Joe Stratman - EVP, Business Development

  • This is Joe Stratman. What I'll say is clearly on the H piling business and on the sheet piling business that Skyline does, Nucor-Yamato had been its major supplier for two decades as we said in our opening remarks. And, I would say in those two categories, the percentages that were supplied by Nucor were well over 75%, 80% in the business.

  • In the pipe piling, as Dan mentioned, Skyline actually manufactures their own pipe piling out of flat-rolled coil but both of a plate nature and a sheet nature. And, that is where our opportunity for growth in internal from Nucor Mills is. And, to speculate as to yet where that business is going to grow to and how much of that is coming in, I really don't have numbers to throw at you today on a percentage basis.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • What we're talking about in terms of the opportunity to bring that additional flat-rolled sales in house to Nucor as opposed to the previous owners, we're talking about somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 tons of additional tonnage. And, of course, all that goes without discussing the fact that the opportunities to grow the overall footprint of the company now that they are part of Nucor whether it be in sheet piling, pipe piling, H piling will certainly be there for us as the market allows us to. But, you're looking at somewhere around a 20% improvement in opportunity.

  • Luke Folta - Analyst

  • Okay, can you talk about what your expectations are for D&A going forward there?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • No, we're not going to break that out specifically yet. We don't have that isolated. We're still working on the allocation of the purchase price to the assets.

  • Luke Folta - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • You're welcome.

  • Operator

  • Timna Tanners, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • Timna Tanners - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon.

  • Timna Tanners - Analyst

  • Wanted to ask just two questions, one about capital allocation considerations and the other just to clarify your outlook. So, with regard to how you're thinking about uses of cash, you, like you said, have one of the best balance sheets globally along with Nippon Steel. Can you give us any updates on how you're thinking about the opportunities of buying dislocated assets out there versus building or your own organic growth?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well our philosophy there really hasn't changed and the opportunities really haven't changed over the past several years that would cause us to do that. In general, the world today is suffering from massive over capacity because of the economic conditions that are out there both for the interstates and now certainly popped up in Europe and now popping up in Asia.

  • So, the idea of building new capacity for new capacity sake certainly throughout most of the world is not a good use of shareholders capital. Our interest at the current time primarily focused on shoring up our existing operations where we have $200 million being spent there as we've indicated in earlier calls.

  • And, also in strengthening our vertical integration both downstream with David Joseph, Harris Rebar, now Skyline. And, new product and process developments at our fabricated products divisions like our joists and deck operations and obviously our DRI operations that will be built in Louisiana.

  • That's where our allocation to capital is for the most part, whether they be to grow our existing operations vertically in both directions or to take advantage of acquisition opportunities as they come forward. As far as greenfield opportunities go, we have talked in the recent past about another plate mill. And, under the current conditions in the world that probably is something being put on the back burner as we speak.

  • And, it will depend on how things proceed within the global economies over the next couple years as to what gets done there. But, our overall strategy still focuses on number one, investing in our existing operations, number two, investing in the vertical integration both up and down the line as the opportunities present themselves.

  • Timna Tanners - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. And, just to clarify on your guidance, if I could. So, you talked about a cautious outlook but you also talk about opportunities with scrap falling and prices recovering which would imply some sort of margin expansion. So, is the risk you think into the third quarter more on the volume side, is that how we should interpret your comments?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • No, I think you should interpret them as being we're in a very variable state in the economy both here and around the world. There's a lot of instability, potential instability, a lot of concerns over risks in the global and domestic economies. There's some things that are moving in a direction that will be positive for us, some things moving in a direction that will be negative for us.

  • And, as we highlight those we like to highlight both the positive directions and the negative directions. So, I wouldn't focus so much on volumes per se but certainly, there will be things that will be impacting the margins. As you know, selling prices have come down, as scrap prices have come down. That's a two edge sword.

  • In the long run it benefits us. In the short run it can catch us in a negative way on the scrap side, in our scrap business and also as the lag exists out there for the lower scrap prices to make their way through the transportation system and into our actual usage in the mills. So, most of what you're seeing in our guidance is a recognition that we are still in a very unstable economic climate.

  • And, things are moving in both directions. And, how they break and what their impact is relative to one another is still an unknown. We just know that those directions are there. And, that the pluses or minuses we believe will take us to a point similar to where we've been so far in the first six months of the year.

  • They could bring more positive as we have mentioned already that there is a price realization improvement because of the last sheet price increase. And, the scrap has come down. Although how far that has fallen and whether it stays there or goes back up is something we should know much more better over the next 15 to 30 days.

  • Timna Tanners - Analyst

  • Okay, fair enough, thank you.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • You're welcome.

  • Operator

  • Arun Viswanathan, Longbow Research.

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Hi guys, thanks for taking my question.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon.

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Great. So, I just had a similar question, maybe you can talk to me a little bit about what you saw in the quarter. Sheet, I know was down but as an earlier question, you guys suffered less. And, was that because of you still had some orders that were booked at higher rates in the first quarter?

  • And then, similarly, structural was actually up. Is that still going up? So, how does that impact your third quarter outlook as far as the difference between sheet and a long products market?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • On the structural side, it's probably as much a function of mix. Where, depending upon what products are moving, shift more heavily whether it be piling products, H piling is probably the most competitive, sheet piling is a higher value-added. We've been exporting whenever possible which can have an influence on pricing in either direction depending on the strengths out there.

  • But, in all reality it's probably more a question of some higher value-added mixes on the structural side, but that also applies to the flat-rolled side. Our teams have been doing, as John has stated, an excellent job of moving up the value-added curve and up the pricing curve along with that in our flat-rolled. John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • You hit the major points, Dan. Maybe just to talk in general about some of the other products. On the bar side, business has been pretty stable. We're challenged, as always, by imports particular on the rebar side where imports during the last quarter, and frankly through the first half of this year, just surged up. But, even with that surge we've been holding our own and fairly stable. Same with merchants.

  • Plate, we're also seeing a surging of imports on the plate side, particularly the cut plate. But, again, because of the work of our commercial team and the investments we've made at Hertford both with the quench and temple line and the value-added products that are coming online through the pack and tank degasser, we've been able to hold our own there. And, have a stable order entry rate and stable backlog.

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. I guess what I was struggling with was last year in the second quarter you were at $894 per sheet by the fourth quarter you'd gone down to $747. And, that kind of fall off was I guess somewhat commencerit with what we saw in the market. However this year you're at $780 in the first quarter and you're only at $759 the second quarter.

  • And, that's really not close to what we saw in commodity hot rolled. So, I guess it has been mix in your own businesses. So, but that was nice to see. The other I guess part of my question -- or another question I had was on the scrap side. Can you talk to us about your book in the second quarter and do you expect to see much of the fall off as a benefit in your third quarter guidance?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Talking about scrap?

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • There's been over $100 a ton drop in scrap over the past couple of buys. And, some of that may be given back to the market. That remains to be seen how much of any. There seems to be some indication of stabilization of scrap after the last combined drops.

  • That will benefit us in the second quarter. How much depends on exactly the timing of how the flows scrap moves to the transportation channels into our yards and from our yards into the melt mix. John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • That was the point that I was going to add. We will see more of that impact as we go into the third quarter because of our inventory levels in our existing mills. So, as it comes through the chain, as Dan pointed out, gets into the melt we'll see some of the benefit from that.

  • One thing that we do watch is we watch the flow of material across our scales at our yards to get some sense of what's happening going forward. And, we have seen that slowdown as a function of the peak recent pricing that Dan mentioned and also the extreme heat that we've gone through the last six weeks. So, all of that we see as bringing some stability going forward into the market.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • That together with some uptick in export activity that we've seen in the recent few weeks.

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Keith do you have anything you want to add to that?

  • Keith Grass - EVP

  • You guys covered it pretty well.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, next question.

  • Operator

  • Sal Tharani, Goldman Sachs.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon, Sal. Sal?

  • Sal Tharani - Analyst

  • I'm sorry, Good afternoon. I'm sorry, I was on mute. I have a couple housekeeping questions and just another question. On -- what was the export in the second quarter, what were the start up cost?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • Exports and start up costs?

  • Sal Tharani - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • I'll start with the start up costs. Per operating start up costs in the first quarter were just over $7 million. They were closer to $18 million, $19 million in the second quarter. And, they will be relatively flat going into the third quarter. John do you have some information export?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Yes, a couple comments on exports. We've had a lot of challenges in the export market as you know, the situation in Europe, the currency. But, despite that, our international team has done an outstanding job.

  • We exported about 11% of our product in the first quarter and we maintained that percentage through the second quarter. So, kudos to our international team. They've done a great job despite a very challenging environment. And, our export ratio has been stable.

  • Sal Tharani - Analyst

  • Thank you. And then, I have a question on the strategy going forward. You have always mentioned in Louisiana Phase II, Phase III where eventually you want to, as market conditions get better, build a mill, a blast furnace mill and so forth.

  • And, I was just wondering if the Thyssen asset fits in that portfolio or in that strategy if you can buy it at a very decent rate -- amount and have a very high quality rolling mill which you can attach to a DRI-based blast furnace or (inaudible) in the future?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • That was a pretty neat way of dragging and pushing up what we might be doing or not doing there conversation, Sal. No wonder it took you a second to push the mute button. I don't mean that in the negative way. I thought it was a good question.

  • As far as our strategy in Louisiana goes, it hasn't really changed from the standpoint of what the future holds down there. We are currently permitted for two DRI facilities and a blast furnace and coke oven operation. A lot will depend on how markets develop and how economic growth stabilizes and moves forward over the next 5 to 10 years as to exactly how much more we do down there.

  • Plans do also call for either steel making activities or downstream activities. An expansion of the raw material strategy could very well be in the cards for Louisiana. And now, as far as Thyssen Krupp goes that's one of those bridges that never should have been built. But, it's here, it's for sale. People will be looking at it.

  • How it would fit in with our strategy in Louisiana, certainly if we were interested in it it could have a place but the big issue there is the market doesn't need it. And, the big question is whose going to be interested and what's it going to cost. Certainly, there's very few steel companies that are in business today that aren't at least thinking about what's going to happen there and should we have an involvement. But, as far as what our involvement is or isn't I really can't get into that.

  • Sal Tharani - Analyst

  • Great, thank you anyway, Dan.

  • Operator

  • Evan Kurtz, Morgan Stanley.

  • Evan Kurtz - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon, gentlemen.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon, Evan.

  • Evan Kurtz - Analyst

  • Just a couple ones here for you. First on operating rates, it seems like we have various blast furnace producers taking some down time in the second half here. And, imports seem to be tapering off.

  • So, I was wondering if that's safe to say that you guys are expecting an uptick in operating rates in the third quarter? And, if so, is that factored into your rough guidance here for modestly lower earnings next quarter?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well certainly, on the plus side, as we mentioned in our Earnings Release and in our script, there are things like the shut down of the RG assets and the pull back of Thyssen Krupp on putting steel into the marketplace because they are up for sale. And, other things that had taken place at the integrated plants.

  • But, before I go any further on that I just want to make sure you understand that at the electric furnace shops we don't announce changes in production ahead of time. Because it can be made at basically a moments notice. As opposed to a blast furnace that has to be planned for and gets talked about. And then when it's shut down it's shut down for a period of time before they can look at bringing it back and market conditions improve.

  • We move in and out depending on our order entry, what it is, how strong it is. And, we're not unaffected by the slowdowns in demand or the oversupply in the marketplace. So, as you've seen, our operating rates in the second quarter had moderated. But, in terms of -- what was the rest of your question? I'm sorry.

  • Evan Kurtz - Analyst

  • Basically if you thought you were going to gain any share over the quarters? And, some of your competitors were taking down time was there enough demand to perhaps facilitate some more orders on your part?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I don't know -- what demands out there remains to be seen. There are a lot of moving parts with scrap coming down, maybe going up, maybe staying stable. Imports, what's going to happen there, they can change on a couple months notice.

  • And, how do domestic players actually continue to go forward on their capacity cutbacks if they do which can change as well. In general, the industry, the people who are operating their mills should benefit from the fact that some people have cut back or shut down completely, as in the case of RG.

  • Whether we actually pick up market share or not is tough to predict because the economy is still very weak overall. And, there still is, while imports have backed off there is still a significant amount of tonnage coming in from overseas across most products. So, in terms of how we look at the third quarter we're probably looking at similar levels of production to the second quarter.

  • Evan Kurtz - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful, thanks. And then, just one other question. Been hearing a lot about the severe weakness in the export plate market, particularly in Asia. Some of the latest numbers I've heard out of there were about $560 a metric ton FOB.

  • And, I was surprised to see in your guidance here that you mentioned plate as one of the better situated products going forward. I was wondering if you could elaborate on your view there? If you see any storm clouds on the horizon?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Well, certainly we keep an eye on the imports and we'll take the appropriate action both commercially and from a political perspective if we see a surge, if we see the surge continue unrestrained. In terms of why we feel fairly confident in our plate ability going forward, we talked about it several times, we have value-added products that we can introduce to the market.

  • We have a strong relationship with our customers. We have a great reputation for quality, service, and on time delivery. And, we keep them competitively priced. For those reasons, we feel that we will see stability it going forward in our plate business.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • There's no doubt that we will, and the industry is already making moves to deal with imports coming in. And, we start talking about the kind of prices you're talking about over in Asia to get them over here they clearly would be dumped. And, I think that will be dealt with if people are foolish enough to do that, which they historically seem to be.

  • But, the big thing, as John mentioned, is we've been growing our percentage of value-added business at our plate mills and changing our product mix at our plate mill in Tuscaloosa to being more plate versus coil plate oriented. That the product mix is working in our favor at the same time as there is definitely some softness in pricing that's been created by the imports that have come in. And, if they get out of hand we'll have to maybe reevaluate where things are at.

  • But, right now, we're hopeful that we will be able to keep that from happening because of our proactive efforts in Washington and elsewhere. And, we do have a very strong commercial program for dealing with imports and pricing product to be competitive against imports as they rear their head. Of course, the other thing is we do have scrap working in our favor as well which benefits us in the plate area as well as in other areas.

  • Overall demand of plate is still good. That's the key thing. And, it's one of the stronger markets. So, it's a matter of the supply side and the product mix and how they move forward together.

  • Evan Kurtz - Analyst

  • That's helpful guys, thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Tony Rizzuto, Dahlman Rose.

  • Tony Rizzuto - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, hi, gentlemen.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Hi, Tony.

  • Tony Rizzuto - Analyst

  • Hi, Dan. Got a question about the end markets, just to pursue that a little bit. And, again, in the release you indicate the markets that remain improved. And, I'm wondering -- I've been hearing that some of the machinery and equipment manufactures talk to suppliers now about slowing trends in the second half.

  • And, I wonder, are you guys seeing impact of that? And, if you could describe in July how the order book has shaped up? Because I understand, obviously the 4th of July came in the middle of the week, people took off and maybe slowed that down. But, what are the trends you're seeing so far as we look into third quarter right now?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • When we look at across all of our products on the order entry rates, as you pointed out, it's a difficult month to use as a guide because of the holiday. And, the way that it fell right in the middle of the week really messed up the order entry to that week. That said, we have seen some slowing through the month pretty much across our product lines.

  • But, again as we said several time, we see in most of our products stability going forward in our backlog and our order entry rates. So, we're keeping an eye on it. Again, all the things we've talked about so far, we have to keep an eye on the imports, we have to keep an eye on what's happening in the marketplace with demand, and we'll react accordingly.

  • But, at this point we see stability in most of our products. Dan alluded to the situation in plates that we have to keep an eye on with the pricing in Asia, we will do that. But, right now, things look fairly stable.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • As I mentioned a few minutes ago, Tony, the volume side of the equation for the third quarter we believe will be similar to the second quarter overall. And, as John said, going on a holiday month like July, the way things worked out, it's tough to draw conclusions just from that. It's more a sense of what's happening in the marketplace with competition.

  • And, the overall order entry level is not out of balance one way or the other on average for our products. So, as you know, we don't like to give short-term emphasis on what's going on. But, we do have to talk about the quarter coming up and our general guidance is we see volumes holding their own.

  • Tony Rizzuto - Analyst

  • I appreciate that. Congrats on all the improvements you're making in your mix and evaluated product capabilities.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Michael Gambardella, JP Morgan.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon, Dan.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • I have two questions for you, one that you'll like and one that you probably won't like. Which one do you want first?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • You be the judge. Give me the one you like first, how's that?

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • That you'll like first. All right. So, you made some comments earlier in your comments about how much money you've invested in growing the earnings base of the company. And, obviously that's hard to see right now. But, if we were to take pricing back in the -- and volume levels back in the '06 to '08 period--.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Wait a minute, my heart is palpitating very fast here.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • What I'm trying to say is you did around $4.00 to $6.00 a share in those three years. How much earnings power on an EPS basis in that type of volume and pricing condition do you think you've added in the last five, seven years?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • Mike, this is Jim Frias. We can't give you a significant number.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • No, obviously.

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • But, it is significant. I don't know if it's -- it's probably not a doubling but it's a significant improvement.

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Let me just toss something out. One way you could potentially look at this is to look at how our company is doing today in a marketplace where construction is at its lowest level in 30 or 40 years, obviously very challenged.

  • And, for our company, which has historically had a strong participation in construction, for us to be doing, operating at the levels today, with construction being so weak it could give you some insight as to how things might look when construction inevitably returns.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • Okay, now the question you're probably not going to like.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Before you get to that, you're asking a good question. As Jim said, it's not going to be double where it was. But, it is going to be --.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • 50% higher EPS?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • It has the potential to be that, yes.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • Okay, so back in --.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Go easy here. Go easy, all right?

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • All right, I'll try to ease it down. In 1990 the electric arc percent of total production in the US was 37%. And, you had just introduced a new technology, thin slab casting, that basically got you into the flat-rolled markets which doubled the potential size of your market.

  • Today, Electric arc furnace is about 62% of total US production. So, the easy pickings and most of your competitors that were easy to pick off back in the '90s and early 2000s, have gone through bankruptcy, restructured their costs.

  • And, there's also -- to go from 62% electric furnace, you can go higher, obviously, in the industry, but you're getting to a point where you need to put higher iron units in the product to make it applicable to the end market. Say in automotive for exposed auto parts, yes, you can make exposed auto parts in a electric furnace. But, you probably are going to have to use pig iron or DRI up around 75% or 80%.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • No, it's not that high.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • Well, pretty high.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Take it in general you're correct. You'll be using a higher percentage of those types of product in your mix but nowhere near 70%. But, go ahead, keep going.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • So, I guess what I'm saying is with electric furnace already at 62% in the US of total production, and the other competitors on the integrated side that you had picked off pretty easily in the '90s, and they've gone through bankruptcy, they've restructured, certainly they don't have the cost structure you do. But, are you getting to a saturation point, is what I'm saying.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • In terms of our earnings capability?

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • No, obviously you've added a lot of earnings capability but in terms of just volume penetration.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well listen, there's two ways for Nucor to grow if I just take your overall supposition, okay? Number one, just because 62% of the electric furnace industry -- or the steel industry is dominated by 62% electric furnace doesn't mean our growth in electric furnaces can't take place. And, it doesn't have to take place just at the expense of the integrators.

  • Secondly, listen, there are electric furnace operations and integrator operations that still has serious competitive challenges in front of them. And so, the opportunity is for growth of Nucor into either one of those two categories. So, you shouldn't just look at it like the only way we grow, and hence we're being limited, is because so much of the issue is already EAF based.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • That's fair. So, let me ask you, in that regard --.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good supposition. We can grow into both as we've shown with the acquisitions that we made and the growth we've done between 2000 and 2010. All that took place on the EAF side.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • So, on the EAF side today your commentary about plate -- the plate business and going in the value-added plate, I guess you're targeting the old Lukens operations that's owned by Arcelor now?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well we're not targeting competitors per se, we're targeting markets. And, our job is to go out and to win the customers business because we're easier to do business with, we provide better quality product, and at a lower cost. And, they know we're going to be around for decades and decades to come, where some off our competition is not going to be.

  • So, targeting is a bad way to put that and that's not the way it should be looked at. We're targeting markets for sure, not necessarily producers. But, the markets, yes. And, you have to keep in mind that our strategy does not involve just moving into higher value-added products. It also involves improving our cost structures dramatically by moving it to vertical integration backwards into raw materials.

  • And, to increase our downstream business activities where profitability tends to be stronger with the acquisition we're making and the growth we're seeing in our downstream businesses. So, I'm a little bit at a loss to follow the logic that you start out with about 62% EAF, 38% integrated, you got no place to grow.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • It's not that you have no place to grow but the places to grow on volume are shrinking compared to where they were in '90.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well listen, we're a 25 million, 26 million-ton a year producer. That's what our -- low cost, high quality producer. Competitive, modern equipment. We went from -- we doubled to where we were back in 2000. To double it again you'd be going to 50 million tons if that's actually is theoretically possible.

  • But, certainly it gets tougher to do the bigger you get to grow by the same relative percentages. But, we're far from being limited into profitable growth of the company. And, there are still opportunities to grow our steel footprint significantly. John, you seem like you have a few things you want to add?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Well, I'm just chuckling a little bit because you used the term game changer when you spoke of what we did in 1990 with the thin strip casting technology. And, I would suggest to you I use the word game changer in reference to our raw material strategy. And, what we're doing on that front.

  • And, we believe that that's going to be the next step for us for DRI and our entire raw material strategy. What we've accomplished in Trinidad in increasing the quality and productivity of the DRI production in Trinidad we're confident we'll be able to duplicate in Louisiana.

  • That's going to give us an advantage in all of the products that you mentioned. That's going to allow us to continue to move further up the value-added chain, higher quality products, higher quality scrap substitutes, deal with the potential issues that you're alluding to on the scrap side because of the increase in the electric arc furnace capacity in a crunch.

  • So, that's one of the reasons you'll hear us focusing and we've been focusing now for over five years on a raw material strategy. We saw these issues you're bringing up today five, six, seven years ago and began preparing for them. And, we're well down that road in being ready for that situation you're alluding to. So, I recognize all of your points but I see then as positives for our company.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • The game changer on thin slab got you into a totally new market that was basically double the size of your market going from long products to long and flat. The DRI, I understand the logic. I wouldn't call it a game changer for DRI, because I'd call it more of a defensive strategy.

  • Because you're getting most of your pure scrap substitute pig iron from Brazil that was basically tearing down the rain forest to use charcoal and that's not a sustainable source. That's why you're putting the DRI in. So, that to me isn't a breakthrough. It helps you tremendously, but it's not as big of a breakthrough as thin slab was. In my opinion.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Michael, it is a bigger, it has a bigger potential impact than thin slab. Particularly with the way things went in thin slab, because it has an impact in every ton of steel we produce. From the standpoint of growing our volumes of steel production by another 100%, that's not the issue here in terms of John's comments are about a game changer. This is a game changer from the standpoint of the cost structure of the company which applies across all of our current 25 million tons.

  • More so for the flat-rolled and higher quality side, but the cost structures we're looking at for producing DRI would be natural gas game changing event on the energy side which is a separate issue. Allow us to be in a position to have very, very strong competitive position on cost relative to everybody else out there today. So, it's much more -- it has nothing to do with replacing charcoal in Brazil.

  • It has nothing to do, at this point in time now, with replacing pig iron because we certainly could build a blast furnace. We've got the permit for it, we have the money for it. And, the additional game changing event is the combination of natural gas which is going to be available for decades at very low pricing.

  • Both because of market conditions and because of what we've done on our own on the drilling side of things. And, the use of those raw materials in the environment of rising raw materials where we have more control of the process. It never was, didn't have anything to do with charcoal in Brazil.

  • I don't know where you are getting that from. So, this is -- you're looking at this whole DRI thing totally the wrong way. And, it is indeed a game changer because just by sake of argument if it saves us $50.00 a ton at 25 million tons, you can do the math. Jim, do you have something you want to say?

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • I wanted to note, Michael, that the DRI facilities are not cost centers, they are profit centers. And, they have the ability, and they are today, historically achieving profits per ton in the same ranges of what the steel mills can in a strong market that will be even more expanded.

  • In the Summer of 2008 our Trinidad DRI facility was making extremely strong margins because of how high the alternative prime scrap and pig iron purchase options were. So, they are the profit centers. They make a big return in strong markets.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • Well, that was my point that the traditional Brazilian sourced pig iron is going to get more and more expensive because it's not a sustainable supply. They ripped down the rain forest.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well listen, that point on its own, Michael, is you're absolutely right on. But, as it relates to what we're doing and why we're doing with the other sources of pig iron out there, we buy a lot of pig iron from all over the world not just from the rain forest of Brazil. And, our issue with respect to pig iron was not that it wasn't going to be available or be available at some globally competitive pricing.

  • It's that lead times required to buy pig iron from around the world stretch the supply chain out six months. And, we got caught in 2009 with a massive amount of pig iron purchased which would have been fine under normal operating conditions, but in a 30% to 50% operating environment was a three year supply or more. We wanted to shorten that supply chain up on the raw material side.

  • So, like we have for scrap, we have more control over it and we don't have to get into those extended inventories and supply chains and commitments. And, our original plan was to build a pig iron facility in Louisiana and that changed because of the natural gas situation and our experience at using high quality DRI we were able to produce in Trinidad. So, you really need to look at this whole integration back into the direct reduced iron business as a game changer for Nucor.

  • And, just -- I know we need to move on because there's other questions, but keep in mind that Nucor's success over the years been based on a number of things. One of them is the combination of low cost, totally available energy, low cost, totally available raw materials and a very unique culture and how that was applied to technologies that other people weren't in the position to take advantage of or weren't willing to take the risk on.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • True.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • And, over time, everything but the culture has lost some of its cost competitiveness. Now, we're in a situation where we have an opportunity to strengthen both the raw material side in terms of cost day in and day out, year after year and also on the energy side with the natural gas situation.

  • And, the direct reduced iron developments that we are putting forward here and moving forward with take advantage of both of those things. That help us to reestablish a stronger competitive position against most of our competitors, not just here in the United States, but globally.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • Okay, I told you you wouldn't like that second one.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • I liked it. You know how I get when I don't like something. I just cut it off. Appreciate the opportunity to elaborate.

  • Michael Gambardella - Analyst

  • All right, thanks.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Michael.

  • Operator

  • Mark Parr, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, Mark? I think Mark got tired and went home.

  • Operator

  • Please check your mute function.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Maybe try someone else?

  • Operator

  • Brian Yu, Citigroup.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • Thanks, good afternoon.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon, Brian.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • Hi. Dan, when you look at the hot oil coal market where prices topped out at $740 back in February and $600 just a couple weeks back. Was there at some point in that slide where some of the marginal importers into the US drop off the picture and it was just more competition amongst the domestic mills so that's driving prices further down?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Oh, boy.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • And, I ask that because utilization rates have come off. Scrap prices are down and yet we're seeing rebound in hot band. And, I'm just wondering where could we see the market settle out, assuming where it doesn't start to track imports again?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, there were so many imports that came in that into people's inventories got into sitting in the warehouses and at the ports. There was a huge, huge influx imports including flat-rolled. It got to the point where people were working at selling flat-rolled into our market at $520 a ton for pete's sake, out of Russia. And, we've taken some actions to stop that and we have.

  • But, all of that was having an impact on moving pricing down. At the same time as the pricing started to go down, because of the flood of Enforce, and because of the situation with an oversupply from domestic producers here with new capacity that came on at the worst possible time, that pricing dropped down to the $600 level that you're referring to. It started to cause people to have second thoughts, not only about bringing steel in, but also about continuing to run their operations the way they were.

  • Obviously, RG shut down, obviously Thyssen Krupp proved their point that they could get the mill to produce. And then, they put it up for sale. And so, all those things have worked to modify the supply side in a fairly steady demand environment.

  • And, that's why you see the opportunity for some slight moves in pricing right now. Whether they hold or not remains to be seen, where they go to reattract imports. The imports got so low on pricing that they were way below where it makes any sense that they were selling stuff to make a profit and they were dumping the product. So, it's hard to tell exactly how they will behave going forward.

  • The fact that there's been some moderation on the domestic side is supporting and we'll just have to see what happens with the imports. No doubt the world has slowed down, China slowed down and they still added capacity, they're trying to export around the world. None of that bodes well for any really strong moves in pricing. But, hopefully we'll see some things that allow us to get off the bottoms.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • I didn't think there would be a simple answer to that. Next one is just a little background on the DRI project. Are there notable differences between the way you building in Louisiana versus what you operating now in Trinidad?

  • I'm just trying to get a sense as we get close to start up next year, are there certain aspects that you have your guys saying well, keep an eye on this particular part in the process because it could cause some issues that may need to debottleneck and work through?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Not really. The things that we're looking at with respect to this project versus Trinidad are all positives. The shorter supply chain, having it in the US and under our control here on the river systems gives us a lot of flexibility on how to move it, the technology that we're employing will allow us to operate at a much lower cost per ton of DRI produced.

  • And, with much less emissions. So, even though our plant in Trinidad is world class the opportunity here for the use of this technology that's not the same technology as in Trinidad to improve our operating costs are significant. John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • The only thing I would say is it is larger than our facility in Trinidad. So, I don't see that as a negative. But, it is something we will keep an eye on. And, you asked if there was anything we'll be focusing on, it will definitely be larger so we want to make sure that we understand the impact of the scale change.

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • Brian, one other point is the facility in Trinidad was used and a bit idle for a while and there were problems with it that we fixed initially and then we stumbled on new problems as we operated it. And so, there's going to be a lower risk of those kind of interruptions.

  • Remember, we had to do the reformer crude replacement I think a year or so ago. So, it's going to be better that we're operating it from day one and taking care of it day one versus buying something that was idled and operated probably not as well as we would take care of something.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • Right.

  • Ladd Hall - EVP

  • Maybe one other point Brian -- this is Ladd Hall. This is not new technology. This is a proven technology that's been used around the world. So, it's not like we are breaking in new technology. Something tried and true and we know that it will work.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • And what would be the expected ramp on that? How long would it take to get up to 2.5 million tons?

  • Ladd Hall - EVP

  • The ramp up time is that what you asked?

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Ladd Hall - EVP

  • Pretty quick.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Like months?

  • Ladd Hall - EVP

  • Like months.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Couple months.

  • Ladd Hall - EVP

  • And, that's what we experienced in Trinidad, quite honestly. It got to full capacity with all of the issues of having used equipment fairly quickly.

  • Brian Yu - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • You're welcome. Last question, please.

  • Operator

  • Richard Garchitorena.

  • Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for taking my question.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Hello, Rich.

  • Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

  • Hi. I just wanted to touch back on Skyline. I know it's a great opportunity given the relationship there. But, just wondering if there's anything we should read into your strategy going forward? Looking at the fact that you're continuing to build your downstream. Do you see distribution as a maybe a bigger piece of the business going forward longer term?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • This should not be construed at all as a indication of a hard movement to distribution to all steel products or flat-rolled products or what have you. This is a very unique company with a very unique product mix that lends itself to some market leadership positions that have been tied to us from day one. So, it's not -- nobody should take it as oh, this is another example about Nucor is going to end up buying service centers and things of that nature. That's not the game plan. John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • I think I would just add that you use the word service center and it's clearly not a service center. It's a distributer and that's the significant difference there.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • A very highly specialized products that aren't normally distributed around the country through the normal distribution chain.

  • Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

  • Great, that's what I thought. I just wanted to clarify. And, my last question, I just noticed that conversion costs in Q2 were slightly higher than Q1. Was there anything specific driving that and how should we think about it for Q3?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • John?

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • Repeat that question for me, please?

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • First off, utilization rate is lower. That always drives up costs. He's asking about why our conversion costs were higher in second quarter than first quarter.

  • John Ferriola - President & COO

  • The utilization was down. That was a factor. We saw -- as you know, we saw scraps start to move down towards the second part of the quarter. There's a lag time on that also.

  • Jim Frias - EVP, CFO, Treasurer

  • The other thing I would add is plate had the smallest reduction in sales tons shipped. And so, that's one of our more value-added products that we manufacture. So, that probably ends up weighting the average cost up somewhat as well.

  • Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Okay, I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. DiMicco for any closing remarks.

  • Dan DiMicco - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you. Again, I'd like to thank all our teammates around the company for your efforts in working safely and helping us continue to be profitable in a very, very difficult environment. There's things that we have that are in our control, our goal is to operate in those arenas efficiently and as effectively and as safely as possible.

  • There's some things that are outside our control. But, our areas that we can have an influence on. And, our goal there is to have the maximum influence possible. And, there are things that are outside of our control and our goal there is to live with that and focus on the other two. You've been doing a great job of that and I want to thank you.

  • And, also thanks to all the other parties listening. The questions were excellent and thank you to our shareholders for your continued support. And, we'll continue to reward you over time with the strong returns we've had throughout the history of the company. Thank you, very much.

  • Operator

  • This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect at this time.