Bank of NT Butterfield & Son Ltd (NTB) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Matt, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call for the Bank of NT Butterfield and Sun Ltd. (Operator Instructions)

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Noah Fields, Butterfield's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

Today, we will be reviewing Butterfield's fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results. On the call, I'm joined by Butterfield's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Collins; and Chief Financial Officer, Michael Schrum. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the call up for a question-and-answer session.

Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release announcing our fourth quarter and full year results. The press release and slide presentation that we will refer to during our remarks on this call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.butterfieldgroup.com.

Before I turn the call over to Michael Collins, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussions will refer to certain non-GAAP measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For a reconciliation of these measures to U.S. GAAP, please refer to the earnings press release and slide presentation. Today's call and associated materials may also contain certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these risks can be found in our SEC filings.

I will now turn the call over to Michael Collins.

Thank you, Noah, and thanks to everyone joining the call today. I am pleased with Butterfield's performance over the past year, both in terms of our strong financial results and our continued development as a leading offshore bank and trust company.

In Bermuda and the Cayman Islands, we benefited from our market-leading bank and trust businesses, while we continue to grow our product offerings in the Channel Islands specifically Guernsey and Jersey. These locations are complemented by our private trust platforms in the Bahamas, Switzerland, Singapore and in the United Kingdom, where we provide mortgage lending in the high-end Central London. The businesses are supported by our service centers in Canada and Mauritius, which have, once again, helped drive improvement in operating efficiency.

Along with the rest of the world, Butterfield's island jurisdictions faced health and safety challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Through various quarantines and work-from-home mandates, Butterfield continues to provide safe and uninterrupted services to our customers. Our Cayman Islands business had strong deposit and loan growth in 2021 and now represents our fastest growth sector. The resilience of our island jurisdictions was evident in our credit book, which had a net credit release of $3.1 million in 2021, reflecting lower levels of nonperforming loans and an improved economic outlook.

Turning now to Slide 4. I am pleased to report another year of excellent financial results with net income of $163 million and core net income of $164 million or $3.28 per diluted share. This translates to a return on common equity of 16.8% and core return on tangible common equity of 18.7%. Net income and core net income are up year-over-year, 10.5% and 5.9%, respectively. These results reflect the market-leading position in banking and wealth and the strength of our fee-based businesses, which helped offset some of the impact of continued low interest rates.

For the full year, Butterfield's net interest margin was $2.02 with our cost of deposits at 11 basis points. We remain committed to actively managing our capital. Our strong earnings and ROEs allowed us to pay out quarterly dividends totaling $1.76 per share or approximately 54% of net income for the year, and we continue to target a through-cycle dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%. In addition, we repurchased over 0.5 million shares at an average price of $36.93.

I am also pleased to announce that the Board has authorized a new share repurchase plan of up to 2 million shares for 2022.

I will now turn the call over to Michael Schrum to provide an overview of results for the fourth quarter.

Thank you, Michael. Again, with a quick summary of the quarter's performance. Butterfield reported net income and core net income for the quarter of $41.7 million or $0.84 per diluted common share. This represented a core return on average tangible common equity of 18.8%. NIM increased by 3 basis points to 2% compared to the prior quarter.

I'll discuss the fee performance and expenses in a few minutes, but I wanted to note here that during the fourth quarter, we did record a loss of $1.1 million in the Channel Islands relating to balance transfers out of a legacy defined benefit plan. This is included in other gains and losses line, and we do not expect this level of impact to repeat.

Turning now to Slide 7, which provides a summary of net interest income and margin. In the fourth quarter, we reported net interest income of $74.5 million, a decrease of $1.2 million due to lower volume of average interest-earning assets in the fourth quarter, partially offset by increased average yields which improved with asset mix and were 4 basis points higher than the prior quarter. NIM of 2% was 3 basis points higher than 1.97% in the prior quarter due to lower deposit balances and deployment of cash into higher-yielding instruments. Loan yields were down 4 basis points.

And during the fourth quarter, the blended rate for loan originations was 3.82% for $239 million of new loans, up from 3.42% for $278 million of originations in the third quarter of 2021 due to new Bermuda commercial loans. We continue to deploy excess cash into the securities portfolio with a net average balance increase of $480.4 million for the quarter as we invested in U.K. Gilts, U.S. Treasuries and agent securities. New money yields averaged 1.08% in the fourth quarter of 2021 or 5 basis points lower than the 1.13% in the prior quarter.

Consistent with the market view that longer-term rate outlook continues to improve, we temporarily invested in some shorter-term maturities to retain some flexibility and add some protection from unrealized marks in the available for sale portfolio.

Going forward, we look to revert to reinvestment in traditional agency securities.

Turning to Slide 8. Noninterest income was very strong in the fourth quarter of 2021, increasing 7.5% to $52.7 million compared to $49 million in the prior quarter. All business lines grew compared to the prior quarter with seasonally elevated credit and debit card transaction activity increasing banking fees and trust revenue benefiting from new business and increased activity-based fees.

The bank's higher noninterest income resulted in a fee income ratio of 41.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compares favorably to our peer group and continues to represent a stable and capital-efficient revenue stream for the bank.

Slide 9 provides a summary of core noninterest expense, which decreased to $83.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to $84.2 million in the prior quarter. As we had expected, expenses moderated due to redundancy costs in the comparative quarter as well as decreases in expenses for recruitment, technology and consulting services expenses compared to the third quarter of 2021. The core efficiency ratio improved slightly during the quarter as a result.

Slide 10 summarizes regulatory and leverage capital levels. Butterfield maintains conservative regulatory capital levels that continue to be strong and well above statutory requirements. The bank's elevated deposit levels maintained our TCE to TA ratio at 5.8%, which remains slightly below our targeted range of 6% to 6.5%. We do expect interest rate-driven OCI marks in the available-for-sale portfolio to continue to keep this ratio below the target range for a period as U.S. dollar interest rates are increasing.

Turning now to Slide 11. Butterfield's balance sheet continues to be strong and conservatively managed with a high degree of liquidity. Deposit levels have remained flat at $13.9 billion this quarter compared to the prior quarter and are above the $13.3 billion at year-end 2020.

In the fourth quarter, we were, once again, able to deploy excess liquidity into the investment and loan portfolios.

On Slide 12, we show Butterfield's asset quality remains exceptionally high with low credit risk and investment portfolio, which is 95% comprised of AAA-rated U.S. government-guaranteed agency securities. This is down from 99% in the prior quarter as we invested some sterling cash into AA rated U.K. gilts.

Consistent underwriting continues to result in 2/3 of loan assets in full recourse residential mortgages in Bermuda, Cayman and the Channel Islands and the U.K.

We continue to build out our residential mortgage offering in the Channel Islands and expect that book to build gradually to a target of $500 million over the next 4 to 5 years. Past due credit metrics improved during the quarter and nonaccrual loans have held steady from the prior quarter, representing 1.2% of gross loans. We remain vigilant and continue with our outbound calling programs and are actively working with any borrowers who may experience difficulty.

On Slide 13, we discuss the average cash and securities balance sheet with a summary interest rate sensitivity analysis. Butterfield's weighted average life in the AFS investment portfolio increased slightly to 5.4 years from 5.3 years last quarter due to slower prepayment speeds with maturities of $285 million this quarter, down from $310 million in the prior quarter. Butterfield continues to expect a potential increase to net interest income in both up and down rate scenarios.

I will now turn the call back to Michael Collins.

Thank you, Michael. During the first quarter of 2022, we have started to see a momentum shift towards the further opening of our island jurisdictions with improved airlift capacity and expect increased cruise ship visits in Bermuda and Cayman later in 2022.

Throughout the pandemic, I've been pleased with the strong performance of our retail and commercial banking operations in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. In the Channel Islands, we have increased our residential mortgage lending book, which has already grown to around $130 million. As the interest rate outlook is now more constructive, our rate-sensitive balance sheet and prior experience suggests that higher rates will provide a meaningful uplift to net interest income and profitability.

Since 2016, our ROEs have been in the range of approximately 15% to 25% during a full rate cycle. With our high-quality fees representing approximately 40% of revenues, we are able to generate high risk adjusted returns without taking significant credit or investment risk. The majority of our growth in the past few years has come from acquisitions, including the 2016 purchase of Private Banking, Investment Management and Trust business from HSBC Bermuda, Deutsche Bank's financial intermediary business in the Cayman Islands and Channel Islands as well as a foothold in Singapore for Trust. And most recently, the acquisition of ABN AMRO's Channel Islands business.

We continue to evaluate deals and believe acquiring appropriately priced offshore trust or banking businesses can be an accretive way to expand our footprint and continue Butterfield's growth story.

Beyond M&A, we estimate our long-term organic balance sheet growth rate to move more in line with the blended GDP rate for our local jurisdictions of around 2% to 4%, with additional potential earnings per share growth coming from share repurchases and strategic cost management. Butterfield's ability to create shareholder value continues to benefit from our strong balance sheet leading market positions, robust infrastructure, efficient operations and customer-centric culture.

I would like to thank our staff, clients, the Board of Directors and all of our stakeholders for their support and contributions that continue to drive Butterfield's success. Thank you.

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

(Operator Instructions)

Our first question will come from David Feaster with Raymond James.

Maybe just start on the fee income side. It's a great to see the strength in the quarter. And just looking at the trust fee specifically, could you maybe just talk a bit about what drove increase in AUM, whether you made any new hires to help facilitate the new business generation, whether you're just seeing more asset flows to Bermuda?

And or if there was a different geography to solid strength? And then just -- were there any other -- you talked about some transaction fees. Just curious maybe was there anything more onetime in nature that added to the strength in the quarter?

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. I'll start off. I think with 41% fee income ratio, the best part about that is it's actually really across the board. So it's really evenly distributed among banking fees, custody asset management and trust and FX. And one thing we've done recently, we've hired some people on the FX side to really focus on the reinsurance industry. And that paid dividends this quarter. So just a lot of outbound calling, International business is still holding up really well through the pandemic. Obviously, like the work at home. So we've done really well on the FX side, but I'll let Michael follow up.

Yes. Thanks, David, Michael Schrum. So just specifically on the trust fees, it's really a combination, I would say, of new client onboarding. So we've had a strong pipeline for a number of quarters, but it's been difficult to sort of convert the pipeline into new opening, onboarding of trust clients just because typically, these ultra-high net worth clients, they would like to have a meeting, obviously, before they sign up. But this is finally sort of seem to open up a little bit now and we landed some decent amount of pipeline in the quarter.

The other part of the fees, which were really more activity-based. So these are sort of special review fees for trust that are restructuring or want to be structured their assets, which is probably less repeatable. But it's just nice to see coming out of the pandemic a bit that there's some activity there as well.

Yes. That's terrific. And then just thinking about the increased business development and the improving economic activity, would you expect marketing expenses kind of return back towards more normalized levels this year? And just how do you think about inflationary pressure and overall expense growth looking forward?

So I think in terms of inflationary pressure, particularly on salaries, we are seeing what everyone else is seeing in terms of salaries and going up in our Halifax service center. So obviously, part of North America. So it's sort of what everything else has experienced. We haven't seen that as much in our island jurisdictions, so Bermuda, Cayman, Guernsey and Jersey, it's a bit of a different market here. We do think that will happen a little bit, but we're not going to see the double-digit kind of inflationary pressures on the seller side in the island jurisdictions, but we will have to pay up a little bit more in Halifax, which is really a hot market in terms of a lot of companies setting up there.

David, it's Michael Schrum. Just a little bit more broadly on marketing and business development. Obviously, that is starting to pick up, which is a net positive for us. I think we still are able to manage. We have some decent tailwinds on the expenses line as well. And we'll just monitor that pretty closely. I think what we're looking at sort of a little bit down the road, is there anything that we could forward that we sort of resequenced during the low rate environment such as branding that we could pull forward and maybe kind of rate accelerate a bit as we come out of the pandemic here. But generally speaking, I think we still would want to hold the line on expenses very much.

Okay. That makes sense. And then just touching on new loan yields. Nice to see the improvement quarter-on-quarter. It sounds like it was somewhat of a mix issue, but just curious what you're seeing on the new loan yield front. Do you think new loan yields have at least stabilized and you might be seeing some modest improvement, just given the movement in the curve and prospects of rising rates?

Yes. Sorry, it's Michael Schrum again. So I mean if you look across the loan book, this quarter was refreshing to see some new originations of Bermuda Commercial, which was at a high yield blended average. We -- if you look at the resi side, obviously, just as a reminder, we do have about GBP 1.4 billion sitting in sterling, which is tied to the Bank of England base rate. and then we have close to EUR 1 billion of resi mortgages in Cayman, which is tied to U.S. prime.

So again, that beta is going to be fairly high on the loan side. and then close to -- or just about EUR 1 billion in Bermuda, which is tied to the Bermuda base rate, which is a rate that sort of is a managed rate, if you will, but typically triggers around Fed funds change.

So I think going forward, we do have a good pipeline in all of our jurisdictions, actually, both on the resi and commercial side. So I think we feel fairly optimistic again, we're not a big loan growth story. We're pretty selective, particularly in the commercial space around -- return on risk-weighted assets. But it's good to see in all the jurisdictions that there's some demand in the market.

Our next question will come from Alex Twerdahl with Piper Sandler.

Just wanted to first drill in a little bit more on the rate sensitivity, which is certainly, I think, a big part of the story here. And I know there's a lot of moving parts in the loan portfolio. I guess my first question, as we think about the sort of the outlook for the yield curve going forward or for the forward curve, I guess, and the expectations for rates in the U.S. Do you think we're going to see similar symmetry in loan yields from kind of what we saw when rates were coming down in early 2020? I mean, can the loan yields get all the way back up to kind of the 5% range. If we do, in fact, get 6 rate hikes in the next 12 months or so?

Yes. I mean it's a great question on the loans. So maybe -- it's Michael Schrum, I'll start on the loan side. But there is a -- obviously, we've done a few acquisitions, Michael referred to, particularly in the Channel Islands with ABN, which really shifted quite a lot of the balance sheet around the group. So less of a tying to the U.S. rate environment and slightly more to the U.K. environment, both in terms of deposits and loans.

So there's kind of a mix shift a bit in terms of where this could peak out. But I certainly think if you think about the Cayman loans that are tied to U.S. prime, if you think about the Bermuda base rate and the Bermuda commercial base rate, those would certainly revert to historic levels. I think the slight nuance here is obviously the $1.5 billion sort of resi mortgages that are ultimately going to be originated at a lower margin. And so it's going to blend down the loan yield overall a little bit.

Okay. And can you just remind us from the $1.4 billion that's tied to the U.K. and tied to the Bank of England. If I'm not mistaken, a lot of those are sitting on floors. What do we need to see from Bank of England for those to start repricing higher?

Yes. So we're just at the floor right now and some of them were just starting to see a positive move on the yield side with the recent rate hike from the Bank of England.

Okay. So if we get another one, we'll get pretty much the whole portfolio repricing higher immediately. Is that how it works? .

Exactly.

And then in terms of the cash position, how much of that is tied to Fed funds versus other currencies?

So we had tactically FX neutral. So in a way, if you look at the deposit base, it's about 22% of sterling, and that is the equivalent of what's sitting in the cash balance effectively. And so -- and you saw that a bit coming through the reinvestment yield, which is obviously -- we purchased the 2 U.K. gilts, which are much, much lower absolute rate than the U.S. rates were at the moment.

So essentially, you've got 22% of cash balances sitting in Sterling, which is what's going to be tied to the short end of the curve. Just again, as a reminder, our cash position, we don't have a lender of last resort Center Bank, but the cash position we sort of managed on a 3-month latter basis. So there's a slight lag in terms of coming up, but I think we feel fairly positive in terms of the outlook.

Okay. So I guess another way, like if you took the lag out of it, as rates go higher, you might see something like a 75%. You might see your beta be around 75% which are Fed funds in that cash position, assuming the Bank of England does nothing?

Yes. That's probably a good estimate. I would say if you looked at the last cycle in terms of the beta assumptions for our demand deposits, there's typically sort of an early outperformance under betas because it takes a little while for the market sort of reprice the core deposits in particular, and we would expect that to be the case this time around as well.

Okay. And then I know you guys shortened up a bit in the securities portfolio. Can you just let us know what could be maturing and sort of the next couple of quarters and then sort of what the plans are for the reinvestment. I know you said you're going to revert back to a normalized security strategy. And then -- and also kind of in terms of the cash deployment strategy with rates now, the 10-year above 2%, how does that change sort of the outlook for the laddering of any cash that you might want to ladder at some point?

Yes. I mean we're typically -- the way we sort of manage the balance sheet is we typically look at the deposit level and then you kind of need 20% of that between the 4 banking jurisdictions to kind of manage your flows between customer flows and treasury flows. So that's typically what we would look to target in terms of the cash balances. So that would be your cash and reverse repo short-term investments.

So looking at that, there's still about $400 million to $500 million of excess to deploy. We would look to deploy that into MBS, traditional MBS or agency securities, which is kind of sitting at a 3 handle or close to a 3 handle now. But again, it will be laddered out over time. We're not a mark-to-market shop. So we're just really using the securities book which is fixed rate assets to sort of offset some of the asset sensitivity that comes from the floating rate nature of the loan book in our markets and to behavioralized deposits.

So I think what we did over the last couple of quarters was do a little bit short of reinvestment in anticipation of rising rates, which will help us with the roll down, so to speak. So 2-year treasuries, et cetera, obviously had an impact on yield, but it will certainly help in terms of reladdering later on.

What we're seeing in terms of prepay speeds, I think I've referenced a little bit earlier that they're down about 25% on the MBS books. So were sort of peaking out in Q2 last year at about $330 million quarter maturities. And obviously, with the extensions risk now, we're down to about $75 million a month-ish.

Okay. that's all very good color. And then just final question for me, just going back to that fee question from earlier, just in terms of the trust, and I guess some of the other lines also, but is kind of what we saw for the core run rate in the fourth quarter. Is that the right place to start 2022? Or I know there's some seasonality in banking fee revenues, et cetera. But as I look at trust, for example, on the new revenue is that the right starting point? And then you kind of alluded to the pipeline having been growing for a couple of quarters. Is there still a decent pipeline for new business on the trust side?

Yes. I mean the trust side, we sort of separate the sort of annuity type fees that we get from the trust, which is sort of the management of the underlying trust and then we have the sort of activity-based fees, which can either come when the trust is restructuring the underlying assets or when there's traditional reporting, for example, to do on those trusts.

So I would say it's probably a little bit high for the fourth quarter, just because of the activity-based fees.

On the banking side, as you've seen in the prior years, I'd probably normalize that about $1.5 million of sort of seasonal adjustments in Q4, which are really related to Christmas shopping and credit card acquiring fees as we have started to see an opening, both the Cayman and Bermuda economies for tourism.

Our next question will come from Timur Braziler with Wells Fargo.

Maybe just following up on that last question. Looking at the banking revenue, and that's well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. I know you just said that about $1.5 million of that is a seasonal effect. I guess, what's driving such a strong level of banking revenue with the jurisdictions still not fully opened? And if we back out that $1.5 million of seasonality getting us right around $14 million. Is that the right run rate and that continues to grow as jurisdictions open up? Or is there something else there that kind of gets us back to a level more consistent with pre-pandemic levels?

Well, I think at a high level, actually, we continue to be pleasantly surprised in terms of how much domestic economic activity there is. So our credit and debit card volume has been really, really quite strong. And that's people, it's just like in New York or anywhere else where people are ordering food in and buying purchases online and that sort of thing.

So that combined with staycations, the hotels in -- particularly in Bermuda during the winter season are not particularly full, but there's a lot of staycations and Bermudian community staying in hotels. So it's just people aren't traveling as much, but they're doing -- spending just as much as they are used to spend basically domestically. So it's been consistent.

Yes. And Timur, it's Michael Schrum. I'd probably say there's a bit of put and take -- put and give, if you will, between the banking fee line and maybe the asset management fee starts to improve a little bit as we get off the bottom here as a reminder we do run our own money fund. And obviously, we're sort of forgiving the management fee on that. So historically, that's been higher. Banking fees, we did also do selective repricing on some of the periodic fees and banking so that we believe that is sustainable. And obviously, the balance sheet has just continued to be very -- the deposit levels have continued to be pretty high on the balance sheet and that just drives the periodic fees and transaction fees a little bit higher as well. But over time, we've probably a little bit more optimistic on the FX side, some of the seasonality in banking and then asset management should kind of revert in terms of the management fee there.

Okay. And then maybe just circling back to the beta conversation starting on loan, I guess, historically, you guys have kind of gone every other rate hike or repricing of the resi portfolio. Is that still the expectation for the future rate increasing environment? And I guess, what's kind of the thoughts on when the first increase rate hike would go into effect and the plan to kind of every other one?

Yes. So that's exactly what we modeled on the loan betas. Obviously, we are sensitive to competitive pressures. And as you know, this is kind of a front book back book thing here as well. But we certainly modeled 50 loan beta on the Bermuda resi side with a 25 basis point lag obviously.

So that's what goes into the model. Then it will kind of depend on what everybody else is doing in the market a little bit as well and obviously, affordability for us. We have a pretty seasoned book and really coming out of the pandemic, we just need to keep an eye on, obviously loan performance, which continues to be very good, but I just want to keep that in mind as well.

Great. Okay. And last one for me, just sticking on the beta conversation. Last rising rate environment, and you guys pretty drastically out the published sensitivity given how strong the deposit base is. I guess, the mix shift into the Channel Islands, was that drastically change the equation? Maybe give us kind of expectations on Channel Islands deposit beta versus Bermuda and Cayman. And then as we look at that kind of interest rate sensitivity today, maybe just talk us through kind of blended beta assumptions there relative to what we saw in the prior rising rate environment?

Yes, sure. Yes. So we back tested on the last cycle of beta assumptions both for Bermuda and Cayman and the Channel Islands, obviously the ABN deposits are a little bit newer, and we're low market share in Channel Islands and the competition is a bit fiercer. So where we end up is sort of a 20%, 25% beta on core in Bermuda and Cayman and about 70% on term and about 50 to 70 beta across the deposit products in the Channel Islands.

And so if you think about the early -- as I think about the early part of the cycle, the disclosures are parallel 100 and 200. The early part of the cycle is probably not a need to move as quickly on the deposit cost side. We just -- as we talked about loans already. And then later on in the cycle, we peaked out in the last cycle in 3Q 2019 at about 50 basis points on cost of deposit.

So I would say it's still fairly low. But again, subject to the competitive pressures that we're seeing in the market, which we expect to be pretty lagging on the first 100 basis points, I would say there's still a lot of liquidity. Everyone sitting at surge deposits, et cetera. And that's obviously our funding base. But on the other hand, it also needs to make sense for our risk-weighted asset perspective for us.

So those -- that again, what goes into the model. I think the symmetry and the sensitivity is probably not quite reflecting how we expect that to happen in the early part of the cycle probably outperform and then later on, we'll have to wait and see what happens.

(Operator Instructions)

Our next question will come from Tim Switzer with KBW.

You guys mentioned with the deposits that a lot of customers are starting to deploy their savings a little bit. Do you have any kind of insight forward-looking on how deposits can trend this year? And like how elevated do you think these deposit levels are? And will that normalize at some point?

Yes. I mean -- sorry, it's Michael Schrum. I think we talked in couple of quarters -- well, certainly with the onset of the pandemic about pension withdrawals that were allowed in our -- some of our core markets, which was kind of a onetime election for folks to withdraw from there, otherwise locked in pensions up to 25% in Cayman, 10% with some means testing in Bermuda. And we saw certainly a lot of retail deposits come on to our balance sheet as a result of that. .

We believe, ultimately, those need to be redeployed into some form of pensionable asset costs for those folks. But I think a lot of people took the election because of their uncertainty around how their financial position was going to shape up during the pandemic, and it's obviously turned out probably better and so the deposits hung around for a bit. So we have some deposits in the retail side, it's probably $300 million to $400 million.

On the corporate side, on nonfinancial corporate side, we also saw an inflow in deposits, particularly in Cayman. So the overall inflow was probably about $1.2 billion in Q4 2020, and it's stuck around, I think trying to find a home. And we do expect sort of -- if I put it all together, we expect sort of $500 million to $600 million to still kind of leave the balance sheet over a period of time.

Now, it's still here. So I'm not sure exactly when, but it doesn't fit with our historical CAGR growth profile given the underlying economies. And so that is still the expectation.

Yes. And also I think other than the surge deposits that are pandemic related. We have a lot more stability in the deposit base because the -- we had some very large concentrations in trust and family office deposits in Bermuda and hedge funds in Cayman over the years that have really dissipated somewhat. So that creates a lot more stability in terms of our remaining deposit base. But some of the pandemic stuff will come off over time.

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. And as we're looking for expenses for this year, you mentioned holding the line and that there were maybe some cost leverage you had to offset some of the inflation pressures. What can we expect for this year? And is there potential additional pressure on the expense line once we get some interest rate increases and NII starts improving?

Yes. So I think Michael talked a bit about the inflation pressures across the different markets. I think we're pretty much in tune and keeping on top of how that's playing out and pretty sensitive obviously to turnover, et cetera. I think the overall expenses, we've previously talked about 82 to 83 a quarter number. We're sort of almost there now, and I think we'll certainly be there very shortly.

And so that's kind of where we're thinking we're going to sort of end up this year as well. But I would say we're still monitoring, obviously, the inflationary pressures that we're seeing on wages. And then, as I said before, I think if there's an opportunity for us to pull forward some of these projects, which are kind of mostly new projects, whether it's the rebranding project, as you know, Butterfield rebranded about 1.5 years ago, and we sort of resequenced that -- spend really as a result of very low interest rates and maybe there's an opportunity to accelerate that now.

So we are looking for -- actively for those opportunities as well. And we'll obviously be happy to talk about those as they identified.

Yes. And even with Halifax, so that's obviously our sort of lower cost service center, even with sort of 10% to 15% inflationary wage increases, it's still a 40% less expensive than Bermuda and Cayman and a great quality workforce. So we'll continue to build out Halifax as we sort of get operations and call centers and things that we don't need in the various island jurisdictions, we'll continue to build out Halifax.

There won't be the cost differential that maybe we would have 10 years ago in Halifax, but the combination of the high quality workforce plus the fact that it's still always going to be a bit less expensive than Bermuda and Cayman will help over time.

But coming into this year, even though rent interest rates are rising, and that's obviously going to do very well for us. We are focused on expense and we will continue to see what we can do on the cost side in addition to rising rates. So we're not just going to sit on our hands and wait for rates to rise. I think there are some efficiencies that we're going to focus on this year.

Awesome. And with the M&A pipeline right now, how is that shaping up? And our discussions a bit more active than in the middle of the pandemic. And I guess, if you could differentiate that between the private trust businesses and the bank businesses?

Yes, sure. I think we talked about during the pandemic on Channel Islands in terms of banks because obviously, we've done some acquisitions there. We're pleased in the sense that ABN AMRO really diversified our balance sheet and revenue stream so that we're really -- our exposures are really 1/3, Bermuda; 1/3 Cayman; and 1/3, Channel Islands.

So strategically, we wanted that balance. So we've achieved that. We will continue to look, I would say, on the banking side that we were very hesitant during pandemic because you couldn't value loan books, I think that's obviously changed somewhat. But I wouldn't describe the banking side as being active. We continue to have constructive discussions on the trust side. And if you remember, we're sticking with our core ideas in terms of -- basically, it's got to be in our existing jurisdictions that we're not going to start a new trust jurisdiction. It had to be 2/3 private trust.

So a lot of these entities are sort of a mix of trust -- private trust income, plus corporate administrative income. We don't want that side of the business. We just went private trust. And basically, under $50 million. So these aren't huge acquisitions and basically looking for acquisitions that less than 8x EBITDA.

So we are still in constructive discussions. I'd say the reason it takes so long is that our risk appetite from an AML perspective given perceptions and being a bank outside of the U.S. or Europe, we have almost no tolerance on the AML KYC side. So when we get into these discussions and we started doing due diligence, typically, there will be a few clients that we wouldn't want to take on and maybe the vendor will take those back.

And other times, they won't or there will be some litigation. So we look at a lot of stuff and walk away. But I would say we are having some decent discussions and we'll just see where those go this year.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Noah Fields for any closing remarks.

Thank you, Matt, and thanks to everyone for dialing in today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day. Thanks.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.