Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to NOG's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加 NOG 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。

  • It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人:投資人關係副總裁 Evelyn Infurna。謝謝。您可以開始了。

  • Evelyn Infurna - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Evelyn Infurna - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good morning. Welcome to NOG's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

    早安。歡迎參加 NOG 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • Yesterday after the close, we released our financial results. You can access our earnings release and presentation in the investor relations section of our website at noginc.com. We will be filing our June 30th, 2026 10-Q with the SEC within the next few days.

    昨天收盤後,我們發布了財務結果。您可至 noginc.com 網站的投資人關係專區取得我們的財報新聞稿與簡報。我們將在未來幾天內向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日的 10-Q。

  • I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Nick O'Grady, our President, Adam Dirlam, and our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen, as well as our Chief Technical Officer, Jim Evans.

    今天早上與會的有:執行長 Nick O'Grady、總裁 Adam Dirlam、財務長 Chad Allen,以及技術長 Jim Evans。

  • Our agenda for today's call will be as follows. Chad will provide an overview of our financial performance, followed by Adam, who will share an overview of NOG's operations and business development activities. Nick will close with remarks about NOG's positioning and value proposition. After our prepared remarks, the team will be available to answer any questions.

    今天會議議程如下。Chad 將先概述我們的財務表現,接著由 Adam 分享 NOG 的營運與業務開發活動概況。最後 Nick 將就 NOG 的定位與價值主張作結語。在我們的準備稿發言後,團隊將開放回答各位的提問。

  • Before we begin, let me remind you of our Safe Harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that we've described in our earnings release, as well as in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update those forward-looking statements.

    開始之前,先提醒各位我們的「安全港」聲明。請注意,我們今天的發言(包含對各位問題的回答)可能包含《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所預期者有重大差異。相關風險包括但不限於我們在財報新聞稿以及向 SEC 提交的文件中所描述的事項,包括 10-K 年報與 10-Q 季報。我們不承擔更新上述前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

  • During today's call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

    在今天的會議中,我們可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後淨利與自由現金流。這些指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標之調節表,可在我們的財報新聞稿中查閱。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Chad.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Chad。

  • Chad Allen - Chief Financial Officer

    Chad Allen - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Evelyn.

    謝謝你,Evelyn。

  • Q2 was a clear demonstration of our diversified portfolio business model. When one region hits turbulence, other aspects of our platform pick up the slack. In this quarter, that showed up directly in the numbers. Adjusted EBIT was up 17% sequentially, free cash flow was up over 400% from the first quarter. That's the model working as designed.

    第二季清楚展現了我們多元化投資組合的商業模式。當某一地區遭遇波動時,我們平台的其他面向會補上缺口。本季這點直接反映在數字上。調整後 EBIT 較前一季成長 17%,自由現金流較第一季成長超過 400%。這正是該模式按設計運作的結果。

  • Total production was up 9% year-over-year, with record natural gas volumes up 35% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. As previously disclosed, we saw significant curtailments in the second quarter as a result of challenging Waha economics. In a volatile environment, our operating partners in the Permian made prudent decisions to generate excess cash flows.

    總產量年增 9%,其中天然氣產量創新高,年增 35%,且較前一季成長 5%。如先前揭露,受 Waha 經濟性具挑戰影響,我們在第二季出現顯著限產。在波動的環境中,我們在二疊紀盆地(Permian)的營運合作夥伴做出審慎決策,以創造額外現金流。

  • With improving economic conditions, we've seen volumes come back online, including three net turning lines that will contribute to the third quarter. Outside of that Waha-driven curtailment, the underlying assets performed well. The Williston and Uinta both topped our internal expectations, our Appalachian volumes set another record with a full quarter of contribution of our Utica joint development, where early well results have been strong.

    隨著經濟條件改善,我們看到產量回到線上,包括三條淨轉線(net turning lines),將對第三季有所貢獻。除上述由 Waha 驅動的限產外,基礎資產表現良好。Williston 與 Uinta 皆優於我們內部預期;阿帕拉契亞(Appalachian)產量再創新高,主要來自我們 Utica 聯合開發案完整一季的貢獻,且早期井結果強勁。

  • On pricing, our unhedged net realized oil price improved 36% from the first quarter. Gas realizations were 90% of Henry Hub and with our hedges, Waha basis included, reached 123%. Strong NGL prices contributed as well. Waha pressures have receded, and we're seeing that trend continue thus far into Q3. On costs, production expenses per BOE were down 4% year-over-year. Budgeted capital expenditures were $196 million, comprised of $151 million of organic D&C and $45 million of ground game activity. Normalized well costs were $761 per lateral foot, essentially in line with the first quarter. Spending this quarter skewed more towards oil weighted.

    在價格方面,我們未避險的淨實現油價較第一季改善 36%。天然氣實現價格為 Henry Hub 的 90%;加計避險後(包含 Waha 基差),達到 123%。強勁的 NGL 價格也有所貢獻。Waha 的壓力已緩解,且我們看到此趨勢延續至第三季目前為止。在成本方面,每桶油當量(BOE)的生產費用年減 4%。本季資本支出預算為 1.96 億美元,其中 1.51 億美元為有機鑽完井(D&C),4,500 萬美元為地面作業(ground game)活動。常態化單井成本為每英尺水平段 761 美元,基本與第一季一致。本季支出配置較偏向含油比重較高的項目。

  • Permian at 37%, Williston at 33%. Appalachian, Uinta, each at 14%, our newly acquired Duvernay position beginning to contribute at 2%. We ended the quarter with over $1 billion of total liquidity. Our balance sheet remains well-positioned to fund our development program and continue executing on inorganic opportunities as they arise.

    二疊紀盆地占 37%,Williston 占 33%。阿帕拉契亞與 Uinta 各占 14%,我們新收購的 Duvernay 部位開始貢獻,占 2%。本季結束時,我們總流動性超過 10 億美元。我們的資產負債表仍具良好配置,可支應開發計畫,並在出現外生成長機會時持續執行。

  • Turning to capital allocation and shareholder returns. This is where the free cash flow generation translates directly into returns. We repurchased 2.95 million shares, roughly 3% of shares outstanding, at an average price of $20.37, with about 81% of that activity completed before the dividend record date in late June.

    接著談資本配置與股東回報。這正是自由現金流產生如何直接轉化為回報的地方。我們以平均每股 20.37 美元回購 295 萬股,約占流通在外股數的 3%;其中約 81% 的回購在 6 月下旬的股利除息基準日(record date)之前完成。

  • That repurchase largely offset the shares issued to the Duvernay seller, so we effectively funded a scaled acquisition while holding share count roughly flat. Subsequent to quarter end, the board increased our stock repurchase authorization, bringing total capacity to approximately $243 million, a clear signal of how we view the value in our stock at current levels.

    該回購在很大程度上抵銷了發行給 Duvernay 賣方的股份,因此我們在股數大致持平的情況下,等同於為一筆具規模的收購提供資金。在季末之後,董事會提高了股票回購授權,使總額度提升至約 2.43 億美元,清楚表明我們如何看待公司股票在目前價位的價值。

  • On the dividend, our board declared $0.45 per share for the quarter, or approximately $48 million paid on July 31. Against the $159 million of free cash flow this quarter alone, the dividend is covered several times over. We view the dividend as a floor, not a ceiling, on the capital we return to shareholders.

    在股利方面,董事會宣告本季每股 0.45 美元,約 4,800 萬美元,並於 7 月 31 日支付。相較於本季單季就有 1.59 億美元的自由現金流,股利覆蓋倍數相當充足。我們將股利視為回饋股東資本的下限,而非上限。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Adam.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Adam。

  • Adam Dirlam - President

    Adam Dirlam - President

  • Thank you, Chad.

    謝謝你,Chad。

  • We remain as confident as ever in the strength of our assets, confirmed through recent results and leading indicators. Looking ahead, we are seeing multiple positive catalysts as drilling activity materially outperformed internal expectations and the D&C list built to almost 52 net wells as operators modestly pull forward activity in the Permian and Williston.

    我們對資產的強勁表現依然一如既往地有信心,近期成果與領先指標也再次驗證。展望未來,我們看到多項正向催化因素:鑽井活動明顯優於內部預期,且隨著營運商在二疊紀盆地與 Williston 小幅提前推進作業,鑽完井(D&C)清單已建立至接近 52 口淨井。

  • Additionally, we elected to do approximately 17 net wells, which is up almost 20% relative to the trailing 12-month run rate. 90% of those elections were weighted towards our oily basins with normalized AFE costs down 5% from our 2025 average.

    此外,我們選擇參與約 17 口淨井,較過去 12 個月的運行率提高近 20%。其中 90% 的參與決策集中在我們以含油為主的盆地,且常態化 AFE 成本較 2025 年平均下降 5%。

  • Moving to business development, our M&A engine has been firing on all cylinders. We continue to build on our track record of finding premier assets, including our latest with the Duvernay joint development deal that we closed in early June. The Parallax acquisition is a self-funding asset with 20 years' worth of inventory at an average breakeven below $50 and with a price tag of less than 600,000 per location, highly competitive with the basins in the Lower 48. With it, we have strategically and meaningfully expanded our addressable market into Canada. We will continue to screen for other complementary assets.

    轉到業務發展方面,我們的併購(M&A)引擎火力全開。我們持續延續在尋找頂級資產方面的良好紀錄,包括我們最新一筆在6月初完成交割的 Duvernay 聯合開發交易。Parallax 收購案是一項可自我資助的資產,擁有20年庫存,平均損益兩平點低於50美元,且每個井位的價格不到60萬美元,與美國本土48州的各盆地相比極具競爭力。藉由此案,我們在策略上且具實質意義地將可觸及市場擴展至加拿大。我們將持續篩選其他互補性資產。

  • Our ground game has maintained strong momentum and the barbell approach of sourcing near-term drilling opportunities as well as long-dated inventory continues to be underappreciated. Since we have made a concerted effort to build out our inventory in Appalachia, we've amassed roughly 80 locations through our leasing efforts, excluding the acreage that has already converted to development.

    我們的地面拓展(ground game)持續保持強勁動能,而同時取得短期鑽井機會與長期庫存的「槓鈴式」策略仍被市場低估。自從我們有意識地在阿帕拉契亞(Appalachia)擴充庫存以來,透過租賃作業我們已累積約80個井位(locations),不包含已轉入開發的土地。

  • We believe that NOG is one of the few companies, if not the only, that budgets for the acquisition of new locations on an annual basis, which allows us to build duration and optionality for the future with core locations that would compete in any portfolio. This overstates the reinvestment rate that is needed and also means NOG is one of the few who is actively replacing its inventory year after year.

    我們相信,NOG 是少數公司之一(若非唯一)會以年度預算編列方式收購新井位,這使我們能以可在任何投資組合中競爭的核心井位,為未來建立存續期(duration)與選擇權(optionality)。這會高估所需的再投資率,同時也意味著 NOG 是少數能年復一年主動補充其庫存的公司之一。

  • That said, we can and will adjust how capital is deployed based on dislocations in the market. Capital can be shifted to buybacks or other near-term drilling opportunities, or both, as you saw us do in Q2. In the second quarter, we pivoted to more drilling opportunities, acquiring over six net wells weighted to the Permian and Bakken that are currently in process.

    話雖如此,我們可以也將會依據市場失衡情況調整資本部署方式。資本可轉向庫藏股回購或其他短期鑽井機會,或兩者並行,正如你們在第二季看到我們所做的。在第二季,我們轉向更多鑽井機會,收購了超過6口淨井(net wells),以二疊紀(Permian)與巴肯(Bakken)為主,目前正在推進中。

  • To further put this into perspective, through the first half of 2026, our ground game has already capitalized on the same number of drilling opportunities than we did in all of 2025. NOG's opportunity set continues to expand and will remain dynamic capital allocators, directing capital to wherever it creates the most value as the market presents it.

    為了讓大家更有感,至2026年上半年為止,我們的地面拓展已把握到的鑽井機會數量,與我們在整個2025年把握到的相同。NOG 的機會集合持續擴大,我們也將維持動態的資本配置者角色,隨市場出現機會就把資本導向最能創造價值之處。

  • Nick?

    Nick?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Adam. Thanks for joining us this morning and your continued interest in our company.

    謝謝你,Adam。感謝各位今天早上加入我們,也感謝各位持續關注我們公司。

  • I'll cover three pillars that reinforce the strength of our business and build on Chad and Adam's comments. Number one, unrecognized value. We have created an incredible business. This has fostered a fantastic industry reputation as a partner, acquirer, and asset manager and owner. We've built state-of-the-art custom AI-powered management and evaluation tools that are light years ahead of the competition. Most importantly, we have built a high-quality platform with tremendous value that is not being recognized by the public market today.

    我將談三大支柱,以強化我們業務的實力,並延伸 Chad 與 Adam 的評論。第一,未被認可的價值。我們打造了一個令人驚豔的事業。這也讓我們在產業中建立了極佳的聲譽,作為合作夥伴、收購方,以及資產管理者與所有者。我們建立了最先進、客製化、由 AI 驅動的管理與評估工具,遠遠領先競爭對手。最重要的是,我們建立了一個高品質平台,擁有巨大的價值,但目前尚未被公開市場所認可。

  • By our conservative internal estimate, the assets we own are worth $7 billion plus, trapped in a $4.6 billion enterprise value. Fortunately, we have multiple avenues for this value to be recognized. In the meantime, we'll continue to generate significant free cash flow, pay our dividend, and allocate capital to strong forward returns. We will make decisions that allocate capital in a way that will maximize value for our investors long term, whether that's acquiring assets, selling assets, or returning cash to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchases, or a combination of these actions.

    依我們保守的內部估算,我們所擁有的資產價值在70億美元以上,卻被困在46億美元的企業價值(enterprise value)之中。所幸,我們有多條途徑讓這個價值被市場認可。在此期間,我們將持續產生可觀的自由現金流、支付股利,並將資本配置到具備強勁前瞻報酬的用途上。我們將做出能在長期為投資人最大化價值的資本配置決策,不論是收購資產、出售資產,或以股利或股票回購的形式把現金返還給股東,或採取上述行動的組合。

  • Number two, cash flow strength. Based on current strip pricing, our assets should generate $1.4 billion to over $1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA this year. We believe $850 million to $900 million of D&C capital will sustain these production volumes, generating approximately $375 million to over $500 million of free cash flow.

    第二,現金流強度。以目前的期貨曲線(strip pricing)計算,我們的資產今年應可產生14億美元至超過15億美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們認為8.5億至9億美元的鑽探與完井(D&C)資本支出即可維持這些產量水準,並產生約3.75億美元至超過5億美元的自由現金流。

  • Across that range, our dividend remains multiple times covered, leaving free cash flow available to reduce debt, acquire inventory and assets, or repurchase shares. A modest spending increase could also grow oil or total volumes, generating more cash flow while ultimately producing a similar free cash flow profile.

    在該區間內,我們的股利仍有數倍覆蓋(coverage),因此仍有自由現金流可用於降債、收購庫存與資產,或回購股票。適度提高支出也可能帶動原油或總產量成長,進而產生更多現金流,同時最終呈現相近的自由現金流輪廓。

  • Number three, acquisition track record. We are a proven disciplined acquirer. Using our advanced tracking systems, we consistently analyze successful acquisitions, opportunities we passed on. Bids we did not win. Our acquisitions have performed exceptionally well, with our systematic approach generating north of 20% annualized returns on a standard one times levered basis net of hedging. Monetizing selected assets could accelerate these returns further by bringing value forward.

    第三,收購績效紀錄。我們是經驗證、且具紀律的收購方。透過我們先進的追蹤系統,我們持續分析成功的收購案、我們放棄的機會,以及我們未能得標的出價案。我們的收購表現極為出色;以標準的一倍槓桿(1x levered)基礎、並扣除避險影響後,我們的系統化方法帶來超過20%的年化報酬。若將部分資產變現,透過把價值提前實現,還可進一步加速這些報酬。

  • As we remind investors quarter after quarter, our value creation is grounded in long-term strategic thinking. That will never change. A long-term focus did not prevent us from adapting or capitalizing on short-term opportunities, including the fundamental disconnect in our equity today. Our largest quarterly open market we purchased ever demonstrates that approach.

    正如我們一季又一季提醒投資人,我們的價值創造建立在長期策略思維之上。這點永遠不會改變。長期聚焦並不妨礙我們調整或把握短期機會,包括我們目前股價中的基本面脫節。我們史上最大單季公開市場買回量,正展現了這種作法。

  • Our dividend is solidly covered, our assets are materially undervalued, and we are capital allocators. When the market presents opportunities, we will act. Over the past seven years, we identified irreplaceable assets at compelling values, and the returns have validated that strategy, whether the market recognizes it today or not. Our job is to ensure those successes are recognized, and we will work around the clock and analyze every avenue to do so. That's what a company run by investors for investors does.

    我們的股利有穩健覆蓋,我們的資產被大幅低估,而我們是資本配置者。當市場出現機會時,我們就會行動。過去七年,我們以具吸引力的價值辨識出不可取代的資產,而報酬也驗證了這項策略,不論市場今天是否認可。我們的工作是確保這些成功被市場看見;我們將日以繼夜地努力,並分析每一條可行途徑來達成。這就是一家由投資人為投資人經營的公司所做的事。

  • With that, we can turn it over to questions.

    接下來,我們可以進入問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Neal Dingmann, William Blair.

    (接線員指示) Neal Dingmann,William Blair。

  • Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

    Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

  • Morning. I'll offer the remarks. Nick, my first question is on your capital efficiency. Specifically, it seems like most E&Ps, now that we're towards the end of the second quarter reporting, the trend I seem to see out there is many E&Ps, I should say, talked about higher expected 2026 CapEx. Yet, you all were able to reiterate your capital spend and your production, which we view should ramp up nicely going forward. My question is, could you discuss a bit your confidence in to be able to reiterate the CapEx and remind us what some of the primary drivers are there?

    早安。我先說幾點。Nick,我的第一個問題是關於你們的資本效率。具體而言,現在接近第二季財報季尾聲,看起來我在市場上看到的趨勢是,多數勘探與生產公司(E&P)——我應該說很多 E&P——都談到2026年資本支出(CapEx)預期會更高。然而,你們仍能重申資本支出與產量指引,而我們認為未來產量應可漂亮地爬升。我的問題是,你能否談談你們對於能夠重申 CapEx 的信心,並提醒我們其中一些主要驅動因素是什麼?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Neal. I'll talk about a couple things. One, recall that our guidance all along has sort of made the assumption that we would see a steady pickup in activity throughout the year. Obviously, it's probably happening a little bit faster, but the total quantum isn't changing.

    是的。謝謝你,Neal。我談幾點。第一,回想一下,我們一路以來的指引大致是假設全年活動量會穩步回升。顯然,這可能發生得稍微快一些,但總量(quantum)並沒有改變。

  • The second thing I'd point out is that if you look when we revised guidance when we announced the Duvernay acquisition, we had implicitly cut our capital by about $50 million. That's a combination of production efficiency, and just the fact that, we talked about this in the past, but when costs came down last year, you noticed that we said, look, we're an accrual shop, which means we accrue for the cost of those wells, and it takes 180 to 365 days for those reduction in costs to be realized.

    我想指出的第二點是,如果你回頭看我們在宣布收購 Duvernay 時修正指引的時候,我們其實隱含地把資本支出下調了大約 5,000 萬美元。這是生產效率提升的綜合結果,再加上我們過去也談過:當去年成本下降時,你會注意到我們說過,請看,我們是採權責發生制的公司,意思是我們會先按井的成本提列應計費用,而成本下降要在 180 到 365 天後才會真正反映出來。

  • If a well costs $10 million, we accrue the full amount at the AFE. If the actual comes in at $9 million, it can take 6 to 12 months before that money is credited back to us. We are seeing the benefits of that really starting this past quarter, even if costs do increase some, you'll probably see the tailwinds from that for us for some time.

    如果一口井成本是 1,000 萬美元,我們會在 AFE 上先提列全額。如果實際結算是 900 萬美元,可能需要 6 到 12 個月那筆錢才會回沖(credited back)給我們。我們從上一季開始真的看到這個效益;即使成本之後有些回升,你們大概仍會在一段時間內看到這股順風對我們的幫助。

  • Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

    Neal Dingmann - Equity Analyst

  • Great point. Nick, one more. I don't think I've ever asked you this on a call, but I'm going to ask. I'd just love to hear your thoughts on what I would call your value disconnect. It's certainly evident that, again, I think we all see Northern stock being relatively flat year-to-date versus some of the others have followed oil and now are up 40% to 50%. I'd just love to hear you or any of the team's thoughts on what you think has been the cause behind this.

    說得很好。Nick,再一個問題。我想我以前在電話會議上從沒問過你這個,但我今天想問。我很想聽聽你對我所稱的「價值落差」(value disconnect)的看法。很明顯地,再次強調,我想我們都看到 Northern 的股價今年以來相對持平,而其他一些公司跟著油價走,現在已經上漲 40% 到 50%。我很想聽聽你或團隊任何人的想法:你們認為造成這種情況的原因是什麼?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Now you're going to get me monologuing. I think, look, at the end of the day, our cash flows and profits are up several hundred million dollars since the beginning of the year. The stock obviously is not. I'll be candid about the perception challenge we face. We are a non-op, which means at the end of the day, we buy and invest in oil and gas properties.

    是的。你這樣問會讓我開始長篇大論。我想,說到底,我們的現金流與獲利自年初以來增加了好幾億美元。但股價顯然沒有反映。我坦白說,我們面臨一個市場認知上的挑戰。我們是非營運方(non-op),也就是說,最終我們是買進並投資油氣資產。

  • In the public markets, we are rightfully or wrongfully compared against E&P operators. Their job is to manage production and spending and are judged accordingly. We ultimately should be managed by the investments we make and their value over time. That's tough, admittedly, when we typically buy and hold assets to life, but managing guidance is not the same thing as creating value. I think there's a fundamental disconnect in the analyst community today.

    在公開市場上,我們不論合不合理,常被拿來和 E&P 營運商比較。他們的工作是管理產量與支出,市場也據此評價他們。而我們最終應該是以我們所做的投資,以及這些投資隨時間的價值來管理與衡量。坦白說,這很難,因為我們通常是買進並持有資產到其生命週期結束;但管理指引不等於創造價值。我認為目前分析師社群存在一個根本性的落差。

  • As many of you know, I spent 15 years on the buy side, and most of that time, the idea was to look at a company's asset value as a driver for ultimate equity value. This did get out of control during the pre-2014 oil Armageddon period when companies were valued for acreage without regard to the capital required to keep it, not to mention the fact that much of it wasn't worth what was assumed at the time.

    如同許多人知道的,我在買方做了 15 年;那段時間大多數時候的核心觀念,是把公司的資產價值視為最終股權價值的驅動因素。在 2014 年前那段「油市末日」(oil Armageddon)之前的時期,這件事確實一度失控:公司被用土地(acreage)來估值,卻不管為了保有那些土地需要投入多少資本,更別提其中很多土地其實並不如當時假設的那麼值錢。

  • Look, I have a ton of respect for the analyst community, and the market is at any moment what it is. Today, people, rightfully or wrongfully, are focused almost solely on quarterly guidance and free cash flow yield as they see them. Eight years ago on my first call as a CFO, I literally discussed as one of the first people in the space openly to move the company to a self-generating cash position and to pay shareholders a fair and reasonable return.

    你看,我非常尊重分析師社群,而市場在任何時點就是它所呈現的樣子。今天,人們不論合不合理,幾乎只聚焦在季度指引,以及他們所理解的自由現金流殖利率。八年前我第一次以 CFO 身分參加電話會議時,我幾乎是這個領域最早公開討論的人之一:要把公司轉型為能自我產生現金的狀態,並向股東支付公平且合理的回報。

  • Don't get me wrong, free cash flow is really important, but the definition of it is very tricky and often misrepresented in a depleting business. I'll add that even those that do still attempt at NAV may not understand the differences between how we book reserves and inventory as a non-op compared to an operator, which are inherently different in the sense that we can't simply book inventory that we don't control the timing of, and we can't count locations before operators ultimately decide where they're spacing it.

    別誤會,自由現金流確實非常重要,但在一個會枯竭(depleting)的產業裡,它的定義非常棘手,而且常被誤用或誤述。我還要補充,即便有些人仍嘗試用 NAV(淨資產價值)來看,也未必理解:作為非營運方,我們在儲量與庫存(inventory)的入帳方式,與營運商不同;本質上的差異在於,我們無法把不由我們控制時程的庫存直接入帳,也不能在營運商最終決定井距(spacing)與佈井位置之前就把井位(locations)算進去。

  • We're one of, as Adam mentioned, we're one of the only E&P companies that actually budgets for acquisitions in our regular budget every year. Most public E&Ps are not replacing their inventory. What you call free cash flow is actually, in reality, a depleting annuity. I don't think that's a fair comparison, which is why NAV should be an important part of the equation in what is, in the end, effectively a depleting real estate business.

    如 Adam 提到的,我們是少數真正每年在例行年度預算中就編列併購預算的 E&P 公司之一。多數上市 E&P 並沒有在補充其庫存。你所稱的自由現金流,實際上是一種會逐步枯竭的年金(depleting annuity)。我認為這樣的比較並不公平;也因此,在一個說到底本質上像是會枯竭的不動產生意中,NAV 應該是評估方程式的重要一環。

  • If you look at our reinvestment rate, of course it's less immediately productive by design, but we continue to stack on assets. That's not capital efficiency as the market views it, for the record. Over the last year, we spent over $100 million acquiring potentially north of 80 locations in the Utica. This does nothing but make us screen worse in the capital efficiency and free cash flow metric, yet it's definitively adding asset value into the enterprise, albeit non-productive at the moment.

    如果你看我們的再投資率,當然它在短期內的產出較低,這是我們刻意的設計,但我們持續在累積資產。順帶一提,這並不是市場眼中所謂的資本效率。過去一年,我們花了超過 1 億美元,在 Utica 收購了可能超過 80 個井位(locations)。這除了讓我們在資本效率與自由現金流等指標上看起來更差之外,沒有別的效果;但它確實是在為企業增加資產價值,只是目前尚未產生產量。

  • I can tell you, the bonuses paid for that land are up, in some cases, 50-plus% since we began that campaign. No cash flow, just CapEx. Did we add value? Likely the answer is a resounding yes. As I stated in my prepared comments, screening leverage is another example. If we borrow money and buy an asset, the market has focused on the leverage as a negative when comping, but they don't recognize that now we have an asset that's worth a heck of a lot of money.

    我可以告訴你,為了那些土地支付的簽約金(bonuses)在我們啟動那項行動以來,有些案例已上漲超過 50%。沒有現金流,只有資本支出(CapEx)。我們有沒有創造價值?很可能答案是非常肯定的。如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的,用篩選指標看槓桿也是另一個例子。如果我們借錢去買資產,市場在同業比較時會把槓桿視為負面,但他們沒有認知到:我們現在擁有一項非常值錢的資產。

  • I can say with a lot of certainty that the current and future values of our Uinta and Utica assets, which were funded with leverage, are greater today than when we purchased them, and likely grow further over time as the operators improve and delineate. Again, this is a business model viewpoint we struggle to reconcile at times. We could be unlevered and screen better. We could only spend money on D&C capital and look better by these metrics. At the end of the day, now we have these assets.

    我可以相當確定地說,我們以槓桿資金取得的 Uinta 與 Utica 資產,其目前與未來的價值,今天都比我們買進時更高,而且隨著營運商持續改善與勘界(delineate),很可能還會隨時間進一步成長。再次強調,這是一種商業模式的觀點,而我們有時很難與市場的評價方式對齊。我們可以不使用槓桿,讓篩選指標看起來更好。我們也可以只把錢花在鑽井與完井(D&C)資本上,讓這些指標更漂亮。但說到底,現在我們擁有了這些資產。

  • In virtually all the cases, scarcity and quality has proven that the assets that we purchased are now appreciably more valuable. If we need to monetize them to prove to the market as a mechanism that the value, since only cash yields are being used, we're fine with that.

    幾乎在所有案例中,稀缺性與品質都證明:我們買進的資產如今明顯更有價值。如果我們需要把它們變現(monetize)來向市場證明其價值——因為市場目前只用現金殖利率來衡量——我們也完全可以這麼做。

  • At the end of the day, our job is to maximize value. It's a shame they're not analyzed for what they would be in virtually any private setting.

    歸根結底,我們的工作就是將價值最大化。很遺憾的是,在幾乎任何私人市場情境下,這些資產都會被拿來分析其應有價值,但在這裡卻沒有。

  • Put to you this way, if our assets were at the lowest end of our expectations and we sold half, we'd take in roughly half our float and have zero debt. That implies a stock value more than triple the current levels. If the market wants to be singularly focused on production volume cadence versus expectations, a leverage multiple, and a free cash flow yield where 75% of the competing stocks are not replacing any inventory, but just depleting away, that's incredibly shortsighted when in reality, we're about owning and harvesting assets at good values. At the same time, we need to ensure the market understands how valuable all the assets we've purchased have become.

    換個方式說,如果我們的資產落在我們預期區間的低端,而我們賣出一半,我們大約可以收回相當於我們流通股本一半的金額,且零負債。這意味著股價價值將是目前水準的三倍以上。如果市場只想單一聚焦在產量節奏相對於預期、槓桿倍數,以及自由現金流殖利率——而其中 75% 的同業股票並沒有補充任何庫存,只是在持續消耗——那就非常短視;因為實際上,我們的核心在於以合理價格擁有並收割資產。同時,我們也需要確保市場理解我們所購買的所有資產如今已變得多麼有價值。

  • You have an insane dichotomy going on at the moment where people are paying north of $330,000 per acre and assets have never been so sought after at significant premiums to even a few years ago, and yet a public market that wants to give it away. To be fair, when that happens, the onus is on us to prove it. Make no mistake, we will. Back to you.

    你現在看到的是一個極端的矛盾:人們願意為每英畝支付超過 33 萬美元,資產相較於幾年前從未如此搶手、且溢價顯著;但公開市場卻想把它白白送出去。公平地說,當這種情況發生時,責任在我們身上,要把它證明出來。毫無疑問,我們會做到。交還給你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

    Charles Meade,Johnson Rice。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • I appreciate you sharing that point of view. It's a fashion in the market right now to be lower leverage, and maybe you guys aren't there. The question I want to ask actually touches on this leverage point. When you talk about, you and Adam also talked about allocating capital and putting it at the best places, whether it's the ground game or D&C or things like that.

    感謝你分享這個觀點。目前市場上有一種風潮是偏好較低槓桿,而你們可能還沒到那個程度。我想問的問題其實也觸及這個槓桿點。當你談到——你和 Adam 也談到——資本配置,把資本放在最好的地方,不論是地面作業(ground game)或鑽完井(D&C)或諸如此類。

  • It's easy for me to imagine how you stack up, say, a ground game acquisition versus buying back your own shares. It's a little harder for me to imagine how you consider paying down debt. There seem to be more intangibles, benefits or maybe costs related to paying down debt versus looking at an acquisition or buying your own shares. Can you talk about how you view the desirability or the framework for debt reduction or debt additions?

    我很容易想像你們如何比較,例如收購一個地面作業機會與回購自家股票。但我比較難想像你們如何看待償還債務。相較於收購或回購股票,償債似乎有更多無形的因素、好處或也可能是成本。你能談談你們如何看待降低負債或增加負債的吸引力與評估框架嗎?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Look, I would say that number one, there are a couple ways to de-lever, right? Obviously, highly efficient capital, which grows your cash flow, can lower your leverage metrics, and that's important, and that's a big part of the capital allocation.

    當然。你看,我會說第一,去槓桿有幾種方式,對吧?顯然,高效率的資本運用能夠提升你的現金流,進而降低你的槓桿指標,這很重要,也是資本配置很大的一部分。

  • To be candid, what I'd tell you about our shares as an example is that that's a clear and present opportunity, right? That may or may not be there tomorrow, and we're extremely focused on that, as you see. Leverage is the easy part, because ultimately, I'd tell you that, as I mentioned just before in my long-winded monologue, which is that we have incredibly desirable assets. If we want to solve for leverage, we can do that almost immediately, right?

    坦白說,以我們的股票為例,我會告訴你那是一個明確且迫切的機會,對吧?明天它可能還在,也可能不在,而我們對此非常專注,你也看到了。槓桿反而是比較容易的部分,因為最終我會告訴你——正如我剛才那段冗長的獨白提到的——我們擁有極具吸引力的資產。如果我們想解決槓桿問題,我們幾乎可以立刻做到,對吧?

  • I don't know, Chad, do you want to add to that?

    我不知道,Chad,你想補充一下嗎?

  • Chad Allen - Chief Financial Officer

    Chad Allen - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, I think you're right. Obviously our stock right now, where it's trading, it closed yesterday, it's up at 9% yield. It's certainly massively accretive for us to continue to attack that. We'll be prudent about it, and it's a fluid and dynamic situation for us.

    不,我覺得你說得對。顯然我們的股票目前的交易水準——昨天收盤——對應大約 9% 的殖利率。對我們而言,持續加大力道去做這件事(回購)肯定是大幅增厚的。我們會審慎行事,對我們來說這是一個流動且動態的情況。

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • I think you have to weigh in the fact that your asset value, your leverage is a function of the fact that we've acquired all these assets, right? We didn't have to do it the way we did it, but we did it because we knew that they would be more valuable. They are today. To the extent that the market wants to discount the value because the leverage you used to acquire them, that's an easy answer.

    我認為你必須把一個事實納入考量:你的資產價值、你的槓桿,某種程度上是我們收購了所有這些資產的函數,對吧?我們不一定非得用我們採取的方式去做,但我們之所以這麼做,是因為我們知道它們會更有價值。而它們今天確實更有價值。如果市場想因為你用槓桿去收購它們就折價其價值,那答案其實很簡單。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for that detail on your thinking. Adam, I want to go back to something you said in your prepared comments. I believe I heard you say that you have a lot of recent wells that are outperforming your internal expectations, your type curves, and I wonder if you could just give a little bit more detail on where that's happening across your asset base.

    好的。謝謝你詳細說明你們的思考。Adam,我想回到你在事先準備的發言中提到的一點。我相信我聽到你說,你們有很多近期的井表現優於你們內部預期、優於你們的型態曲線(type curves);我想請你再多提供一些細節,這主要發生在你們資產組合的哪些區域?

  • Adam Dirlam - President

    Adam Dirlam - President

  • Yeah, absolutely. We looked to Appalachia. We just finished up our West Virginia joint development agreement. We've seen significant outperformance relative to internal expectations there. That was a driver in the gas volumes that you saw this quarter. We're also seeing it in the Uinta, notably both on legacy production from the XCL assets as well as the 2026 campaign. Jim, I don't know if there's anything else that is notable that

    是的,當然。我們先看阿帕拉契亞(Appalachia)。我們剛完成西維吉尼亞的聯合開發協議。我們在那裡看到相對於內部預期的顯著超預期表現。這也是你本季看到天然氣產量的驅動因素之一。我們在尤因塔(Uinta)也看到了,特別是 XCL 資產的既有產量,以及 2026 年的開發計畫。Jim,我不確定是否還有其他值得注意的地方——

  • James Evans - Chief Technical Officer

    James Evans - Chief Technical Officer

  • Yeah, I think you can. We're really seeing it across all of our basins. Even in the Williston, we continue to see outperformance across operator units. They drill longer laterals, getting more efficient. We're not seeing the decline rates that you might expect as you go from a two to a three to a four-mile lateral. Really, it's across all of our basins that we're kind of outperforming internal expectations.

    是的,我想你可以這麼說。我們其實在所有盆地都看到了。即便在威利斯頓(Williston),我們也持續看到各營運商單元的超預期表現。他們鑽更長的水平段(laterals),效率也更高。當水平段從 2 英里到 3 英里再到 4 英里時,我們並沒有看到你可能預期的那種遞減率。真的,我們在所有盆地都算是超出內部預期。

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, and I'd say it's early, but even on our new Ohio program, where we've really started to just put on our first pads, we've seen really, really strong performance. Kudos to the Infinity guys.

    是的,我會說現在還算早,但即便在我們新的俄亥俄(Ohio)計畫上——我們才剛開始上第一批井場(pads)——我們也看到非常、非常強勁的表現。要稱讚一下 Infinity 團隊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Phillips Johnston, Capital One.

    Phillips Johnston,Capital One。

  • Phillips Johnston - Analyst

    Phillips Johnston - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the time, and happy Friday. I have to say that I'm also a fan of the monologue, so thanks for that, Nick. I'm actually going to be the guy that asks about the short-term production trends, so my apologies in advance. Your implied oil production guidance for the second half of the year is around 74,000 a day on average, I guess.

    嗨,謝謝你們撥冗,也祝週五愉快。我得說我也是那段獨白的粉絲,所以謝謝你,Nick。我其實要當那個問短期產量趨勢的人,所以先跟你們說聲抱歉。你們隱含的下半年原油產量指引,我想平均大約是每天 74,000 桶左右。

  • If we adjust your second quarter volumes upward to account for the shut ends, it sort of implies your second-half production is going to grow by a couple thousand barrels a day relative to Q2. Obviously, there's a lot of positive momentum given your strong wells in process figure at the end of June, and you talked about the accelerated AFE and election activity. I realize it's still a pretty uncertain operating environment, it seems like the guidance could be a little conservative with some upside potential. I just wanted to get your take on that.

    如果我們把你們第二季的產量上調以反映停產(shut-ins)的影響,這似乎意味著你們下半年的產量相較於 Q2 會增加每天幾千桶。顯然,考量到你們在 6 月底仍在流程中的強勁井數(wells in process)所帶來的正向動能,以及你們提到加速的 AFE 與選擇權(election)活動,整體動能很正面。我理解目前營運環境仍相當不確定,但看起來這個指引可能偏保守,且有一些上行空間。我只是想聽聽你們對此的看法。

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. It's definitely possible. I think, look, to your point, it's very fluid. Oil prices are all over the place, it's too early to declare victory, obviously you have really just the base assets returning to trend. You also have the addition of the Duvernay assets on top of that.

    是的。絕對有可能。我想,照你說的,情況非常多變。油價波動很大,現在就宣告勝利還太早;顯然你目前看到的其實只是基礎資產回到趨勢水準。另外,你還有在此之上新增的 Duvernay 資產。

  • I'd say as we stand today, one of the things that has been difficult for both you and investors in general, which is that we got a lot of questions when oil prices spiked, why weren't you seeing the reaction? The answer was really that one of our biggest growth engines is the Permian, and it's really been hampered by the logistical problems. We tried to be really forthright about that it was going to take a little bit of time.

    我會說,以我們今天所處的狀況來看,對你以及一般投資人而言一直比較困難的一點是:油價飆升時,我們收到很多問題,為什麼你們沒有看到相應的反應?答案其實是,我們最大的成長引擎之一是 Permian,但它確實一直受到物流問題的掣肘。我們也盡量坦率地說明,這需要一點時間。

  • Obviously, I think what I would tell you is, as it stands today, some of those challenges have resolved themselves faster than I would've thought. We had frankly had those conversations with the operators, there was good reason for it. We had really pushed a lot of that development that had been delayed, really starting in the end of the fourth quarter of last year. Even in the third quarter, we started seeing things being moved towards the end of this year. We're actually seeing that trend invert, and we're seeing a lot of that stuff being brought forward. It really bodes well for the remainder of this year. Again, I think it's too early to declare total victory, and we want to make sure we see it before we really come out and brag about it. I'd say your thoughts in general are correct.

    當然,我想我會告訴你的是,就目前而言,其中一些挑戰解決得比我原本預期更快。坦白說,我們之前也和營運商談過這些,確實有其合理原因。我們把許多原本延後的開發大幅往前推,真正開始是在去年第四季末。甚至在第三季,我們就開始看到一些事情被往今年年底移動。但我們其實看到這個趨勢反轉,很多事情被提前。這對今年剩餘時間非常有利。再說一次,我認為現在就宣告全面勝利仍然太早,我們想先確定看到結果,再真正出來誇口。我會說,你整體的想法是對的。

  • Adam Dirlam - President

    Adam Dirlam - President

  • Yeah. I think Phillips, we've seen some operators jockeying, kind of figuring out 2027 plans as well. Maybe picking up a rig sooner than otherwise kind of expected, seeing some drilling efficiencies there. Depending on how that all kind of shakes out net to Northern, that would be another thing to kind of keep an eye on.

    是的。我想在 Phillips 那邊,我們也看到一些營運商在調整布局,某種程度上也在規劃 2027 年的計畫。可能比原先預期更早增加一座鑽機,也看到一些鑽井效率的提升。視這些因素最後對 Northern 的淨影響如何,這會是另一個值得關注的點。

  • Phillips Johnston - Analyst

    Phillips Johnston - Analyst

  • Okay. Sounds good. On the LOE guidance, you did reduce the full year guidance a little bit. As we look at slide four, which is a really great disclosure, by the way, there's a pretty wide range of operating costs across your basins. My question is, how will your evolving production mix and the addition of the Duvernay volumes, which obviously have the lowest LOE on the slide, influence, I guess, your LOE trajectory over the next four to six quarters or so?

    好的。聽起來不錯。關於 LOE 指引,你們確實把全年指引稍微下修了一點。我們看第四頁投影片(順帶一提,這個揭露做得很好),你們各盆地的營運成本區間差異很大。我的問題是,你們持續演變的產量組合,以及新增的 Duvernay 產量(顯然在投影片上 LOE 最低),將如何影響未來大約四到六個季度的 LOE 走勢?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Number one, I'm not trying to be pissy or make a pissy comment, but our LOE is not LOE, as you would say. It includes LOE, but we don't have a separate GP&T line, so it carries a bunch of gathering and transportation costs. Some other portion of the GP&T is in our differential, which we really look at as from wellhead to sales. We report a little bit different than other people. What I would tell you is that if your production remains flat. And this is for any company. Your LOE will rise over time. Right?

    是的。第一,我不是想故意嗆人或講難聽話,但我們的 LOE 並不是你所說的那種純 LOE。它包含 LOE,但我們沒有單獨列 GP&T(集輸與運輸)這一行,所以裡面包含了一堆集輸與運輸成本。GP&T 的另一部分則反映在我們的價差(differential)裡,我們其實是以從井口到銷售端的角度來看。我們的揭露方式和其他人有點不同。我會告訴你的是,如果你的產量維持持平,這對任何公司都一樣,你的 LOE 會隨時間上升。對吧?

  • To your point, our goal in general is as we add growth areas such as the Duvernay, and then I think potentially the Uinta over time, those areas should offset the fact that if you look at our Williston total production costs, and our Williston volumes have stayed relatively flat for the last four or five years. Those used to be $10, right?

    照你說的,我們整體目標是:當我們新增像 Duvernay 這樣的成長區域,然後我想未來可能還有 Uinta,這些區域應該能抵消一個事實:如果你看我們 Williston 的總生產成本,而我們 Williston 的產量在過去四、五年相對持平。那些以前是 10 美元,對吧?

  • Now some of that is just inflation, and work over costs have increased over time, but some of it's just the aging of the wells, right? Which is that you've got, call it in your LOE, I think about 60% of the costs generally are fixed. As the wells decline over time, that LOE naturally goes up, but obviously the maintenance capital associated with it goes down as well. While your operating costs go up, your capital costs go down.

    其中一部分只是通膨,修井(workover)成本也隨時間上升,但另一部分其實就是油井老化,對吧?也就是說,在你的 LOE 裡,大概有 60% 的成本通常是固定的。隨著油井產量隨時間遞減,LOE 自然會上升;但同時,與之相關的維持性資本支出也會下降。也就是營運成本上升,但資本成本下降。

  • A long-winded way of saying, I think our goal is to try to keep LOE flat to down. Obviously, as our gas volumes grow, that also helps lower that because they're an advantage. I'd say our joint development program, which was extremely liquid, which as that declines and you see an increase in our Ohio volumes over time, that should actually offset that trend a little bit and get LOE to go down some over time.

    用比較冗長的方式來說,我想我們的目標是盡量讓 LOE 持平到下降。顯然,隨著我們的天然氣產量增加,這也有助於降低 LOE,因為天然氣在這方面是有利的。我會說,我們的聯合開發計畫之前液體(油)占比非常高;隨著那部分下降、而你看到我們 Ohio 的產量隨時間增加,這其實應該能在一定程度上抵消那個趨勢,讓 LOE 隨時間略為下降。

  • In general, I think we feel very good that we can kind of maintain the current levels for some time. I do think you have to keep in mind fuel prices and other things that can flow through LOE, right? And work over expenses, which we really saw a huge increase on as the wells have aged in both the Permian and the Williston over the last few years. That's generally stabilized at this point.

    整體而言,我們很有信心可以在一段時間內大致維持目前水準。但我確實認為你必須記得燃料價格以及其他會反映到 LOE 的因素,對吧?還有修井費用,過去幾年隨著 Permian 與 Williston 的油井老化,我們確實看到這部分大幅增加。目前這大致已經穩定下來了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noel Parks, Tuohy Brothers.

    Noel Parks,Tuohy Brothers。

  • Noel Parks - Analyst

    Noel Parks - Analyst

  • I was wondering. Did appreciate your comments on valuation and in particular, I sort of keyed on your mention that what I think it's what others call a free cash flow is actually a depleting annuity. It sort of got me thinking, as you've expanded into different basins and with sort of the realities of valuation, what you do and don't get credit for, I'm just wondering, I think of the story as being one largely of basin arbitrage, you recognizing opportunities and from that perspective, being able to get them at a good price that other people would overlook. I mean, doesn't basin arbitrage alone, if you continue on that path, doesn't that sort of naturally kind of help you build value more or less regardless of kind of what the public markets are saying?

    我在想。我很感謝你對估值的評論,特別是我注意到你提到:我想你是說,別人所稱的自由現金流,其實是一個會耗竭的年金(depleting annuity)。這讓我想到,隨著你們擴張到不同盆地,以及在估值上的現實——市場會給你什麼、不會給你什麼樣的認可——我在想,我把這個故事看作很大程度上是「盆地套利」(basin arbitrage):你們辨識機會,並從這個角度,以其他人可能忽略的好價格取得資產。我的意思是,單靠盆地套利,如果你們持續走這條路,難道不會在某種程度上讓你們不論公開市場怎麼說,都能或多或少自然地累積價值嗎?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think there's a public and a private view, but I think we recognize our job is to make sure that that value is recognized, right? That is part of our job. That's one of the hardest things to do, to be candid, Noel. Slide four in our earnings deck, one of the comments we got was people wanted more visibility, and we're happy to provide it. We really show a basin by basin look at the company.

    是的。我想公開市場和私募市場的看法不同,但我認為我們也明白,我們的工作是要確保那個價值被市場認可,對吧?那是我們工作的一部分。坦白說,Noel,那也是最難做到的事情之一。我們財報簡報的第四頁投影片,有一個回饋是大家希望有更多能見度,而我們也很樂意提供。我們確實以逐一盆地的方式呈現公司狀況。

  • What I'd tell you about that is when we acquired the Uinta assets, we had spent a significant sum of time, a year plus prior evaluating and reviewing the Uinta. We understood that this was a basin that had economics that could compete or even exceed the Permian.

    我想跟你說的是,當我們收購 Uinta 資產時,在收購前一年以上,我們已投入相當多時間對 Uinta 進行評估與審查。我們了解這是一個在經濟性上能與 Permian 競爭、甚至可能超越 Permian 的盆地。

  • When we evaluated Canada, which we've been doing for several years, and we found the light oil part of the Duvernay, we were incredibly encouraged by both the length of inventory on it. I mean, you're talking about a 20-plus-a-year asset, as well as the incredible margins it generates. Slide 4 really underscores that.

    當我們評估加拿大(我們已經做了好幾年)並找到 Duvernay 的輕油區塊時,我們對其庫存年限之長感到非常振奮。我的意思是,你談的是一個 20 年以上的資產,同時它所產生的利潤率也非常驚人。第 4 張投影片確實強調了這一點。

  • When I say those things, I sometimes get blank stares. When your margin in Uinta is $20 higher than in the Permian, people ask you about differentials, you can sit there and say, I don't care. The proof is in the pudding. In the case of the Duvernay, similar, which is that we talked about it when we acquired it, which is it had very unique properties. We are truly seeking the best assets, and we'll allocate our capital accordingly.

    當我這麼說時,有時候會看到一片茫然的表情。當你在 Uinta 的利潤率比 Permian 高出 20 美元時,人們會問你價差(differentials),你可以坐在那裡說:我不在乎。結果最能說明一切。Duvernay 的情況也類似;我們在收購時就談過,它具有非常獨特的特性。我們確實是在尋找最好的資產,並會據此配置我們的資本。

  • We're not someone who just does one thing and does it well, and I think sometimes that does have value in a public market that wants surety and clarity, but I think we're trying to provide that here, and people should recognize it.

    我們不是那種只做一件事、而且把那件事做得很好的人;我認為在公開市場上,這種模式有時確實有價值,因為市場想要確定性與清晰度,但我想我們正在這裡提供那樣的確定性與清晰度,大家也應該看得出來。

  • I don't know, Adam or Chad, if you'd want to add to that.

    我不知道 Adam 或 Chad 你們是否想補充一下。

  • Noel Parks - Analyst

    Noel Parks - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thanks. I was just wondering thinking about the gas side of the equation. The move towards some of the larger players towards sort of an integrated gas model, bringing back in-house infrastructure or acquiring infrastructure that they had at one time spun out.

    好的。很好。謝謝。我只是想從天然氣這一端來思考這個問題。一些大型業者正朝向某種整合式天然氣模式發展,把基礎設施收回自營,或是收購他們過去曾經分拆出去的基礎設施。

  • I'm just wondering what your thoughts are. Does it have an effect on your model, or is it compatible, that trend sort of with your own model? I guess it just makes me think about those sorts of players as opposed to for gas exposure, the Permian, for example, there is a ton of associated gas, so you have plenty there. I just wondered what that sort of change in the landscape is telling you.

    我只是想知道你們的看法。這會影響你們的模式嗎?還是說這個趨勢與你們自己的模式是相容的?我想這也讓我想到,若要取得天然氣曝險,這些業者相較之下如何;例如 Permian 就有大量伴生氣,所以那邊的供給很充足。我只是想知道,這種產業版圖的變化對你們而言代表什麼。

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We own significant infrastructure in the Uinta, in the Permian, and in both the Duvernay and the Uinta. Sorry, the Utica, excuse me. What I would say about that is that obviously the most notable thing is that when we acquired the Utica, it implies a higher upfront multiple. You're talking about something that with the fully integrated model drops your break-even costs $1.20 versus the prior operator. You make a more resilient asset.

    是的。我們在 Uinta、Permian,以及 Duvernay 和 Uinta 都擁有相當多的基礎設施。抱歉,是 Utica,失禮了。我對此想說的是,顯而易見最值得注意的一點是,當我們收購 Utica 時,這意味著前期的倍數(multiple)會更高。你談的是在完全整合的模式下,相較於前一個營運商,你的損益兩平成本可以降低 1.20 美元。這會讓資產更具韌性。

  • Importantly as well, you also have control. Control is really important, which is look no further than the Permian where the bulk of it is through third-party gathering and processing systems. You run through periods of time in which, quite frankly, you just can't get your gas out. Right? Some of that stuff is not stuff that E&Ps would own, like long-haul pipes.

    同樣重要的是,你也能掌握控制權。控制權非常重要;看看 Permian 就知道,那裡大部分依賴第三方集輸與處理系統。你會遇到一些時期,坦白說,你就是無法把天然氣運出去。對吧?其中有些設施不是 E&P 會擁有的,例如長途管線。

  • At the end of the day, controlling the infrastructure is really critical. It also builds a moat in which once that system is built, the acreage and the surrounding acreage becomes by de facto really only valuable to you. That being said, people are knocking on our door every day trying to buy that infrastructure at significant values. It's always an option.

    歸根結底,掌控基礎設施非常關鍵。它也會形成一道護城河:一旦系統建好,該區塊的土地以及周邊土地,事實上就只對你有價值。話雖如此,每天都有人來敲我們的門,想以相當高的價值買下那套基礎設施。這永遠是一個選項。

  • I would tell you that there's extreme value to having that infrastructure and being integrated. I think you've seen one of our top operators is EQT. You've seen them do that in Appalachia. It's a great success. I think at first when people saw it, they might not have fully understood it, but a couple of years later, it proves its value.

    我會告訴你,擁有這些基礎設施並採取整合模式具有極高的價值。我想你們也看到,我們其中一個頂尖的營運商是 EQT。你們看到他們在 Appalachia 這麼做。那是非常成功的案例。我想一開始人們看到時,可能沒有完全理解,但幾年後,它的價值就被證明了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Diamond, Citi.

    花旗(Citi)的 Paul Diamond。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking the call. Morning. Just a quick one for you. Last quarter, we obviously saw some Permian curtailments and reactivity to invasive pricing. You guys diversification. As you see the winter approaching or any other operational efficiencies, do you see that occurring anywhere else across your basins, or is it any warning lights for you?

    謝謝接聽電話。早安。我這邊只有一個簡短問題。上一季,我們顯然看到 Permian 有一些限產(curtailments),以及對激進定價的反應。你們的多元化布局。當你們看到冬季將近,或是任何其他營運效率的因素時,你們是否看到在其他盆地也會發生類似情況?或是對你們而言有任何警訊?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Not at the moment. I think one of the interesting things about the gas market right now is there's been a lot of discussion and research around potential Super El Niño, the strip really reflects that. My experience over time has been most people are wrong about the weather all the time. I think that the fact that's sort of baked into the gas market today is pretty interesting to me, right?

    目前沒有。我認為目前天然氣市場一個有趣的點是,市場對可能出現「超級聖嬰」(Super El Niño)有很多討論與研究,而期貨曲線(strip)確實反映了這點。我長期的經驗是,大多數人對天氣的判斷幾乎一直都不準。所以我覺得,今天天然氣市場把這種預期「烘焙」進去,對我來說相當有意思,對吧?

  • Usually, they bake in a normal winter, or they think it's going to be a cold winter, then things wind up disappointing. I think frankly, the situation today is probably the opposite. Several years ago, as you remember, we had some significant storms in both the South and around the country, it caused huge disruptions in areas because of extreme weather.

    通常市場會把正常冬季的情境納入定價,或認為會是寒冬,結果最後往往令人失望。坦白說,我認為今天的情況可能正好相反。幾年前,如你所記得的,我們在南部以及全國各地遭遇一些重大風暴,極端天氣造成許多地區出現巨大干擾。

  • Over that time, you've seen a lot of investment in infrastructure to make it more resilient. I expect operational disruptions, similarly you saw in the Gulf of Mexico years ago where there were huge disruptions from Katrina and Rita, then people built the system stronger as it came back. I see the same scenario here. Quite frankly, as it pertains to winter and gas, we generally become a huge beneficiary should something happen.

    在那段時間,你看到大量基礎設施投資,讓系統更具韌性。我預期營運中斷的情況會類似你多年前在墨西哥灣看到的:卡崔娜(Katrina)與麗塔(Rita)造成巨大干擾,之後人們在恢復時把系統建得更強韌。我在這裡看到同樣的情境。坦白說,就冬季與天然氣而言,如果真的發生什麼事,我們通常會成為很大的受益者。

  • I think in general, even if it lasts as much as a month and a half or whatever. Using last winter as an example, that incredible strength happened right after we acquired our Ohio assets, we were able to actually take really advantage hedges, which are on the book today, take advantage of that scenario. I would hope we see similarly. Volatility can be bad, it can also be very good.

    我想整體而言,即便影響持續長達一個半月之類的。以去年冬天為例,那波驚人的強勢正好發生在我們收購俄亥俄資產之後,我們實際上得以充分利用避險;那些避險今天仍在帳上,並利用了那種情境。我希望我們也能看到類似情況。波動可能是壞事,也可能是非常好的事。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Got it. Makes perfect sense. One more, I guess larger strategic one quickly. You guys have worked pretty strongly to diversify across basins, splitting about 30, 30 across Williston, Permian, Appalachia, the Anadarko, Uinta, and Duvernay. I guess how do you see that on a long-term basis? Is the idea to be like split evenly amongst those five, or do you see any, I guess, more opportunity sets in one versus the other? I guess how should we think about those knobs turning over time?

    了解。非常合理。再一個更偏策略面的問題,快速問一下。你們一直很努力在各盆地之間做多元化,大致以 30、30 的方式分散在 Williston、Permian、Appalachia、Anadarko、Uinta 與 Duvernay。我想問你們長期來看怎麼看這件事?想法是要在那五個之間平均分配嗎?還是你們認為某些盆地相較其他盆地有更多機會?我們應該如何理解這些配置比例(knobs)隨時間調整的方向?

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think it's hard to say in some cases and easier in others. I think the Williston is very mature, and I think episodically we may see opportunities come up in the Williston, but in general, it is a very, very mature basin. The Permian comes and goes. Obviously, several years ago there were enormous numbers of assets coming to market. We took advantage of that.

    是的。我認為有些情況很難說,有些則比較容易。我認為 Williston 非常成熟,而且我認為我們可能會在 Williston 間歇性地看到一些機會出現,但總體而言,它是一個非常、非常成熟的盆地。Permian 的機會時有時無。顯然,幾年前有大量資產進入市場。我們把握了那個機會。

  • The last year or so, it's probably been less exciting to us, but that can invert on itself over time. I think what I would tell you is we are a management company at the end of the day, and we're really focused on economics. The diversity is certainly part of the business model, but it's also going where the opportunities are, and those can change and are very dynamic over time.

    過去一年左右,對我們來說可能沒那麼令人興奮,但隨著時間推移,情況也可能反轉。我想我會告訴你的是,我們說到底是一家管理公司,而我們真正專注的是經濟性。多元化當然是商業模式的一部分,但同時也是去到機會所在之處,而這些機會會隨時間改變,且非常動態。

  • I don't think there's a desire to be more diversified or less diversified. Similarly, when assets are sought after, it could be a scenario in which we take advantage of that and monetize a portion of it over time. I think everything's for sale every day. Everything is both for us to buy and for us to sell, and I think we'll do whatever makes the most economic sense. I don't know if you want to add to that.

    我不認為我們有想要更分散或更不分散的偏好。同樣地,當資產受到追捧時,可能會出現我們把握機會、並隨時間將其中一部分變現的情境。我認為每天所有東西都在出售。一切對我們而言既是可買的,也是可賣的,而我認為我們會做最符合經濟效益的事。我不知道你是否想補充。

  • Adam Dirlam - President

    Adam Dirlam - President

  • Yeah, I think that's the competitive advantage of the business model, right? We can expand in basins in a relatively cost-efficient way. You saw that with the entry into Canada. We've been looking at Canada for the last two years, both in the Montney as well as the Duvernay. This quarter we're fortunate to find an asset that checks the box.

    是的,我認為這就是商業模式的競爭優勢,對吧?我們可以用相對具成本效率的方式在各盆地擴張。你在我們進入加拿大時就看到了。過去兩年我們一直在看加拿大,包含 Montney 以及 Duvernay。本季我們很幸運找到一項符合條件的資產。

  • Even looking at our ground game, we had activity in every single basin, and the competition ebbs and flows depending on what you're looking at in what period of time. Our ability to move quickly and leverage the proprietary information that we have with the evergreen models That we have enables us to make those decisions on a real-time basis. We'll continue to look at the opportunities that are within the basins and in our own backyard and sandbox now.

    即便從我們的地面作戰來看,我們在每一個盆地都有活動,而競爭會隨著你在不同時間段看不同標的而起起落落。我們能夠快速行動,並運用我們掌握的專有資訊以及我們的常青模型(evergreen models),使我們能夠即時做出這些決策。我們將持續尋找盆地內的機會,以及現在在我們自家後院與沙盒中的機會。

  • That's not to say that we're not looking at a number of other different basins at any given moment in time. I think we've got 15 different large asset transactions that we're looking at right now. A lot of the stuff that was in market was formal auctions. A lot of the stuff that we're having conversations around in the third quarter has really been bilateral conversations. We'll continue to stay dynamic in terms of how we're sourcing and looking at opportunities.

    這並不是說我們在任何特定時點不會同時關注其他許多不同的盆地。我想我們目前正在看大約 15 筆不同的大型資產交易。市場上很多標的是正式拍賣。而我們在第三季所進行的許多討論,實際上更多是雙邊對談。我們會在取得案源與評估機會的方式上持續保持動態。

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I use the example, obviously, we've grown our Utica position probably in excess of what we would have thought the opportunity was when we entered the basin. We've made a significant investment in acreage, and our phone is ringing off the hook now of things to do with it, right? From operators all over the map.

    是的。我舉個例子,顯然,我們在 Utica 的部位成長,可能已經超過我們剛進入該盆地時所預期的機會規模。我們在土地(acreage)上做了重大投資,而現在我們的電話幾乎被打爆,都是關於要怎麼運用它的事情,對吧?來自各式各樣的營運商。

  • I do think it's a really important distinction about our business model versus, say, an operator, right? I think the market spoke long ago, which is that too much diversity as an operator can be challenging. There are some specific reasons for that, which is one, do one thing, do it well. Can you be really good at lots of different things?

    我確實認為,區分我們的商業模式與例如營運商(operator)的模式,是非常重要的一點,對吧?我認為市場很早就已經表態:作為營運商,過度多元化可能會很具挑戰。其中有一些具體原因:第一,做一件事,把它做好。你能同時把很多不同的事情都做得非常好嗎?

  • Secondly, allocation of capital for operators in which they have to maintain a team and rig activity and all these things can get a little bit squirrely. For a non-operator, it's very, very different, right? Which is that for us, it's truly just capital allocation. It's just dollars in and dollars out.

    第二,對營運商而言,資本配置上他們必須維持團隊、鑽機活動以及所有這些事情,可能會變得有點棘手。但對非營運商(non-operator)來說就非常、非常不同,對吧?因為對我們而言,這真的就只是資本配置。就是資金流入與資金流出。

  • The diversity, while it might be a little bit harder to model and annoying for you at times, at the end of the day, it doesn't have the same inherent challenges that it can be when you're trying to maintain multiple business lines for an operated business.

    多元化雖然可能會讓建模更困難一些、也可能有時讓你覺得煩,但歸根結底,當你試圖維持一個自營業務的多條業務線時,它並不會帶來同樣的內在挑戰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have no further questions. I would like to turn the call back to Nick O'Grady for closing remarks.

    我們沒有進一步的問題。我想把電話交回給 Nick O'Grady 作結語。

  • Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

    Nicholas O’Grady - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. We'd like to remind investors to view our new earnings presentation slide supplement, which contains new enhanced disclosures, which highlights our asset value and the incredible investment opportunity. As always, reach out to investor relations with questions, and we look forward to continuing the mission. Thanks again.

    感謝各位今天參加電話會議。我們想提醒投資人查看我們新的財報簡報投影片補充資料,其中包含新增且強化的揭露,並突顯我們的資產價值與極具吸引力的投資機會。一如既往,如有問題請聯繫投資人關係,我們也期待持續推進這項使命。再次感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。