Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the NOG's first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

各位好，歡迎參加 NOG 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位，本次電話會議將被錄音。現在很榮幸為各位介紹本次會議主持人：投資人關係副總裁 Evelyn Infurna。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Good morning. Welcome to NOG's first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Yesterday after the close, we released our financial results. You can access our earnings release and presentation in the Investor Relations section of our website at noginc.com. We will be filing our March 31, 2026, 10-Q with the SEC within the next few days.

早安。歡迎參加 NOG 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。昨日收盤後，我們已發布財務結果。您可至 noginc.com 我們網站的「投資人關係」專區取得財報新聞稿與簡報。我們將在未來幾天內向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日的 10-Q。

I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Nick O'Grady; our President, Adam Dirlam; our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen; and our Chief Technical Officer, Jim Evans. Our agenda for today's call is as follows: Nick will provide introductory remarks followed by Adam, who will share an overview of NOG's operations and business development activities, and Chad will review our financial results. After our prepared remarks, the team will be available to answer any questions.

今天早上與我一同出席的有：執行長 Nick O'Grady、總裁 Adam Dirlam、財務長 Chad Allen，以及技術長 Jim Evans。今日會議議程如下：Nick 將先做開場致詞，接著由 Adam 分享 NOG 營運與業務開發活動概況，然後由 Chad 回顧財務結果。在我們的預先準備發言結束後，團隊將開放回答各位的提問。

Before we begin, let me remind you of our safe harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

在開始之前，先提醒各位我們的「安全港」聲明。請注意，我們今天的發言（包含對各位問題的回答）可能包含《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings release as well as in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. During today's call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

這些前瞻性陳述受到各項風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所預期者有重大差異。這些風險包括但不限於我們在財報新聞稿以及向 SEC 提交之文件中所描述的事項，包括 Form 10-K 年報與 Form 10-Q 季報。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。在今天的電話會議中，我們可能討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標，包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後淨利與自由現金流。上述指標與最接近之 GAAP 指標的調節表可於我們的財報新聞稿中查閱。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick.

接下來把電話交給 Nick。

Thank you, Evelyn. Welcome, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in our company. I'll be very brief this quarter by highlighting nine key points. Number 1, business activity remains stable with few observable changes since we last reported. Number 2, potential changes to activity in 2026 remain a TBD for us as the effect of the Iran war is only now going to be potentially seen in AFE activity. We will update our investors accordingly throughout the year.

謝謝你，Evelyn。各位早安，歡迎各位，並感謝各位對本公司的關注。本季我會很簡短，重點說明九個關鍵事項。第一，業務活動維持穩定，自上次報告以來幾乎沒有可觀察到的變化。第二，2026 年活動可能出現的變化對我們而言仍待定（TBD），因為伊朗戰爭的影響現在才可能開始在 AFE 活動中顯現。我們將在全年持續向投資人更新相關情況。

Number 3, the higher long-dated pricing stays, the more likely we see a sustained change in activity, especially as we head into 2027. Number 4, in the meantime, we've seen a reversal of curtailments in the Williston, and this will drive better capital efficiency throughout 2026. Number 5, it was a banner first quarter for our ground game with an incredible 41 deals done, while overall capital remains controlled. Number 6, the current geopolitical storm is showing some key benefits and a few negatives to the business.

第三，長天期價格維持在較高水準的時間越久，我們越可能看到活動出現持續性的變化，尤其是邁向 2027 年之際。第四，同時，我們看到威利斯頓（Williston）的限產出現反轉，這將在 2026 年帶動更佳的資本效率。第五，就我們的「地面作戰」（ground game）而言，第一季表現亮眼，完成了驚人的 41 筆交易，同時整體資本仍維持受控。第六，當前的地緣政治風暴對業務帶來一些關鍵好處，也有少數負面影響。

We are seeing wide swings in oil differentials, which are likely benefiting our realizations materially, some in the Permian, but particularly in the Williston. On the gas front, Permian production remains hamstrung by limited takeaway for the time being, but we remain financially well insulated with significant basis hedges at less than $1 off Henry Hub.

我們看到原油價差（differentials）大幅波動，這很可能對我們的實現價格帶來顯著助益；部分發生在二疊紀（Permian），但尤其是在威利斯頓。在天然氣方面，二疊紀產量目前仍受限於外運能力不足，但我們在財務上仍有良好緩衝，因為我們有大量基差避險（basis hedges），相對亨利港（Henry Hub）的折價不到 1 美元。

Number 7, our leasing program remains materially underappreciated as through this effort, we've added over 70 net locations in the last year. Free cash flow yields aren't free when comparing us to peers that are just depleting away their inventory.

第七，我們的租賃（leasing）計畫仍被市場嚴重低估；透過這項努力，我們在過去一年新增了超過 70 個淨井位（net locations）。在與同業比較時，自由現金流殖利率並非「免費」得來，因為有些同業只是持續消耗其庫存（inventory）。

Number 8, while all eyes are on Iran and the wide swings in spot prices, it is the longer-dated strip that matters. The improvement in the 2027 and 2028 strip are what drive growth in undeveloped activity and in asset prices, and these improvements should help stabilize activity going forward, lubricate the M&A market, reduce bid-ask spreads and drive up our competitiveness. We have several exciting large-sized package prospects in evaluation and more coming as the M&A market heats up. The backlog has improved in both size and quality, which is highly encouraging for our business model.

第八，雖然所有目光都聚焦在伊朗以及現貨價格的大幅波動，但真正重要的是較長天期的期貨曲線（strip）。2027 與 2028 年期貨曲線的改善，才是推動未開發活動成長與資產價格上升的關鍵；這些改善應有助於穩定未來的活動、活絡併購（M&A）市場、縮小買賣價差（bid-ask spreads），並提升我們的競爭力。隨著併購市場升溫，我們正在評估數個令人振奮的大型資產包（package）機會，且還會有更多案源出現。案源儲備（backlog）在規模與品質上皆有所提升，這對我們的商業模式而言非常令人鼓舞。

Number 9, regardless of what happens in Iran, we believe things have been set in motion that will materially improve the long-term strip's outlook, absent significant economic turmoil. That bodes well for activity, acquisitions and for our investors.

第九，不論伊朗局勢如何發展，我們相信在未出現重大經濟動盪的前提下，已經有一些因素被啟動，將實質改善長天期期貨曲線的展望。這對活動、收購以及我們的投資人而言都是利多。

Given our hefty free cash flow generation despite adding inventory, our improved balance sheet and our reputation in the marketplace, there is a huge opportunity for our business to find meaningful growth paths. Again, thank you for your interest in our company. We remain focused on growing our enterprise the right way, and as always, our company run by investors for investors.

鑑於我們在增加庫存的同時仍能產生可觀的自由現金流、資產負債表改善，以及我們在市場上的口碑，我們的業務存在巨大的機會去找到具意義的成長路徑。再次感謝各位對本公司的關注。我們將持續專注以正確的方式壯大企業；一如既往，我們的公司由投資人經營，為投資人服務。

With that, I'll turn it over to Adam.

接下來把電話交給 Adam。

Thank you, Nick. As a whole, Q1 activity was in line with expectations. Production was strong, particularly in Appalachia, where we continue to see promising results from our growing asset base and with our Q1 program right on plan, showing strong IPs. The Williston also outperformed as multiple operators contributed meaningful return to sales volumes from prior curtailments, along with performance gains from recent IPs. Uinta and Permian rounded out the quarter with performance in line with expectations.

謝謝你，Nick。整體而言，第一季（Q1）活動符合預期。產量表現強勁，尤其是在阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）；隨著我們資產基礎持續擴大，我們仍看到令人鼓舞的成果，而我們第一季計畫也完全按進度推進，初期產量（IP）表現強勁。威利斯頓同樣優於預期，多家營運商在先前限產後，為銷售量帶來顯著回升，同時近期 IP 的表現提升也帶來助益。尤因塔（Uinta）與二疊紀則使本季整體表現收尾，結果與預期一致。

We ended the quarter with 43.7 net wells in process and 9.2 net AFEs, with the Permian representing roughly a third of our wells in process and approximately 60% of AFE inventory. Well proposals have held steady at 216 consents, squarely in the 200 to 230 range we saw throughout 2025. And based on our conversations with operators, our forward activity view is unchanged from what we laid out on the fourth quarter call. However, the next few months will be instructive for activity changes as it pertains to the expectations for the remainder of the year and 2027.

本季結束時，我們有 43.7 口淨在建井（net wells in process）以及 9.2 個淨 AFE；其中二疊紀約占我們在建井的三分之一，並約占 AFE 庫存的 60%。井提案（well proposals）維持穩定，共有 216 件同意案（consents），正落在我們 2025 年全年所見的 200 至 230 區間內。並且根據我們與營運商的對話，我們對未來活動的看法與第四季電話會議所提出的觀點一致，沒有改變。不過，接下來幾個月將有助於觀察活動是否出現變化，並影響我們對今年剩餘期間及 2027 年的預期。

On the ground game, we set a new quarterly record with 41 transactions in Q1, adding over 5,100 net acres and 6 net wells. Our Appalachian leasing program continues to perform well, but we were also able to close deals across all of our respective basins. Most transactions occurred early in the quarter ahead of rising commodity prices, and our pipeline continues to deliver as we diligently evaluate opportunities.

在「地面作戰」方面，我們第一季以 41 筆交易創下單季新紀錄，新增超過 5,100 淨英畝（net acres）以及 6 口淨井（net wells）。我們在阿帕拉契亞的租賃計畫持續表現良好，同時也成功在各個盆地完成交易。多數交易發生在本季初、商品價格上漲之前；而我們的案源管線（pipeline）仍持續提供機會，因為我們正審慎評估各項機會。

Our ground game will stay central as we leverage NOG's proprietary infrastructure to grow our portfolio through smaller acquisitions and evaluate further joint development opportunities. Larger M&A opportunities have also picked up, and we are evaluating over $10 billion in assets across eight transactions that are currently in the market.

我們的地面作業將持續扮演核心角色；我們將運用 NOG 的專有基礎設施，透過較小型的收購來擴大我們的投資組合，並評估更多共同開發的機會。較大型的併購（M&A）機會也有所增加，我們正在評估目前在市場上的八筆交易、合計超過 100 億美元的資產。

As expected in this environment, there is a fair amount of variability in asset quality, but it has been encouraging to see higher quality assets coming to the forefront. Given the consistent number of opportunities afforded to us, we remain discerning and, as always, will prioritize packages that are resilient in any commodity environment and those that create long-term value.

如同在此環境下的預期，資產品質存在相當程度的差異，但令人鼓舞的是，我們看到較高品質的資產逐漸浮上檯面。鑑於我們持續獲得穩定數量的機會，我們仍會審慎挑選，並一如既往優先考量在任何商品價格環境下都具韌性的資產包，以及能創造長期價值的標的。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chad.

接下來，我把時間交給 Chad。

Thanks, Adam. In the interest of time and to avoid repeating standard financial metrics available in our release and presentation, I will focus my comments on the overall performance drivers and outlayers encountered in the quarter. Our first quarter financial results and production cadence were largely in line with internal expectations with no major disruptions.

謝謝，Adam。為了節省時間並避免重複我們新聞稿與簡報中已提供的標準財務指標，我將把重點放在本季整體績效的主要驅動因素，以及本季遇到的異常項目。我們第一季的財務結果與產量節奏大致符合內部預期，且沒有重大干擾。

And despite the persistent macro volatility faced by the industry, NOG's diversified and scaled platform continued to deliver, outperforming internal estimates on production and EBITDA for the quarter. First quarter total average daily production was over 148,000 BOE per day, up 6% sequentially, a record for our company.

即便產業仍面臨持續的總體波動，NOG 多元且具規模的平台仍持續交出成果，本季在產量與 EBITDA 方面均優於內部估計。第一季總平均日產量超過 148,000 BOE/日，較前一季成長 6%，創下公司紀錄。

Our oil-to-gas ratio was an even 50-50 split as our Appalachian JV reached its peak in terms of well deliveries. GAAP net income was impacted by two non-cash items. The first was a non-cash mark-to-market loss on derivatives of approximately $521 million, which was the result of a huge run-up in oil prices during the quarter due to the war in Iran. Hedges settled in the quarter was only $17.6 million loss, comprised of an $11 million gain in natural gas hedges, offset by a $28 million loss on our oil hedges. The second item impacting net income was a non-cash impairment charge of $268 million.

我們的油氣比為 50/50，因為我們的阿帕拉契亞合資（JV）在井交付量方面達到高峰。GAAP 淨利受到兩項非現金項目影響。第一項是衍生性商品按市價評價（mark-to-market）的非現金損失，約 5.21 億美元，係因本季伊朗戰爭導致油價大幅飆升所致。本季已結算的避險損失僅 1,760 萬美元，其中天然氣避險獲利 1,100 萬美元，但被原油避險損失 2,800 萬美元所抵銷。第二項影響淨利的因素是 2.68 億美元的非現金減損費用。

As we have discussed on prior calls, NOG accounts for its assets under the full cost method as opposed to the successful efforts method, which does not perform historical price-based asset test. We are one of the only companies among our peers that utilize the full cost method. I should mention, given the recent change in oil prices, if they stay at current levels, this should be the last impairment charge for the year. We also continue to evaluate a potential shift to successful efforts longer term to avoid such optics.

如同我們在先前電話會議中討論過的，NOG 對其資產採用「全成本法」（full cost method）入帳，而非「成功努力法」（successful efforts method）；全成本法不會進行以歷史價格為基礎的資產測試。在同業之中，我們是少數採用全成本法的公司之一。我也要提到，鑑於近期油價變動，若油價維持在目前水準，這應該會是今年最後一次減損費用。我們也持續評估長期改採成功努力法的可能性，以避免此類觀感問題。

Moving on to pricing. Natural gas realizations have continued to be weak in the first quarter, coming in at 72% of benchmark prices, reflecting ongoing Waha market weakness due to constraints in the Permian. We expect gas realizations, specifically in the Permian to remain weak for at least the next couple of quarters until planned infrastructure projects come online in the back half of 2026.

接著談價格。第一季天然氣實現價格（realizations）仍偏弱，僅為基準價格的 72%，反映二疊紀（Permian）受限制造成 Waha 市場持續疲弱。我們預期天然氣實現價格，特別是在二疊紀，至少在未來幾季仍將偏弱，直到規劃中的基礎設施專案於 2026 年下半年陸續上線。

I do want to point out that inclusive of our Waha basis hedges, our gas realizations in the Permian were 53% or $1.86 per Mcf versus a negative 1% or negative $0.02 per Mcf that are included in our corporate gas realizations. So we are well insulated from a risk management perspective for the rest of the year. CapEx in the quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other was $270 million, which includes the success we had in our ground game.

我也想指出，若將我們的 Waha 基差避險納入，二疊紀的天然氣實現價格為 53%，或每 Mcf 1.86 美元；相較之下，我們公司整體天然氣實現價格中包含的是 -1%，或每 Mcf -0.02 美元。因此，從風險管理角度來看，我們在今年剩餘期間受到良好保護。本季資本支出（CapEx），扣除非預算內收購及其他項目後為 2.70 億美元，其中包含我們在地面作業方面取得的成果。

The $270 million of capital was very balanced with 31% to the Permian, 27% to Appalachia, 24% to the Williston and 17% in the Uinta Basin. Approximately $227 million of the total spend in the quarter was allocated to organic development capital. We still expect CapEx cadence to track at approximately 60-40 split between the first half and the second half of the year, subject to change with activity behavior from our operating partners.

這 2.70 億美元的資本配置相當均衡：31% 投向二疊紀、27% 投向阿帕拉契亞、24% 投向威利斯頓（Williston），以及 17% 投向尤因塔盆地（Uinta Basin）。本季總支出中約 2.27 億美元配置於有機開發資本。我們仍預期全年 CapEx 節奏約為上半年/下半年 60/40 的分配，但可能會隨營運合作夥伴的活動行為而調整。

After closing our joint Utica acquisition during the quarter, we exited the quarter with debt well within our comfort zone and our balance sheet remains in a healthy spot. Our leverage and liquidity were further enhanced by the nearly $230 million equity offering we completed late in the first quarter.

在本季完成我們的 Utica 合資收購交割後，我們在季末的負債水準仍遠在我們的舒適區間內，資產負債表維持健康。我們的槓桿與流動性也因第一季末完成的近 2.30 億美元股權發行而進一步提升。

We currently have over $1.2 billion of liquidity available to us with an additional $175 million of untapped liquidity. And given all the work we've done on the maturity wall last year, we have plenty of runway to execute for years to come. With respect to our 2026 guidance, we have not made any updates given the significant level of volatility in commodity prices, our industry and in the macro generally.

目前我們可動用的流動性超過 12 億美元，另有 1.75 億美元尚未動用的流動性。此外，鑑於我們去年在到期結構（maturity wall）方面所做的各項工作，我們有充足的時間與空間在未來多年持續推進執行。至於 2026 年指引，鑑於商品價格、產業以及整體總體環境的高度波動，我們尚未做任何更新。

Directionally, we are currently trending towards the higher end of the low activity scenario we laid out last quarter, but we still got a wide range of potential outcomes for the year. I'd anticipate that we'll be able to start tightening those ranges and narrowing our 2026 guidance by our second quarter call.

就方向性而言，我們目前的走勢偏向上季所提出的低活動情境之較高端，但今年仍存在很大的可能結果區間。我預期到第二季電話會議時，我們將能開始收斂這些區間，並縮小 2026 年指引範圍。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open up the line for Q&A.

以上是我們的事先準備發言。接線員，請開放電話線進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Neal Dingmann, William Blair.

Neal Dingmann，William Blair。

Morning, guys. Thank you for all the details. Nick, my first question is just on incremental activity. Specifically, you all mentioned in your prepared remarks and release that you suggested operator activities remained flat. But I'm just wondering, based on your recent conversations and what you've seen sort of happened historically, both in this period and prior, what in addition to the 12 months now surpassing $80 do you think has to happen in order to see what I'd call more sustainable change in activity? And if -- when and if this happens, do you believe it occurs sort of equally in your Bakken, Permian and Uinta plays?

早安，各位。謝謝你們提供這麼多細節。Nick，我的第一個問題是關於增量活動。具體來說，你們在事先準備發言與新聞稿中提到，營運商的活動似乎維持持平。但我想請教，根據你們近期的對話以及你們觀察到的歷史情況（包含這段期間與之前），除了目前已連續 12 個月油價高於 80 美元之外，你認為還需要發生什麼，才能看到我所稱更具可持續性的活動變化？另外，如果——以及當這件事發生時，你認為在你們的巴肯（Bakken）、二疊紀（Permian）與尤因塔（Uinta）等區塊會以大致相同的程度出現嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Neal. Good morning. I'd say this, one, when you think about our original guidance, it didn't contemplate a war, right? And so it really -- it comes into the fact that we're seeing obviously a huge surge in short-term prices and a decent surge in the long-term strip.

是的。謝謝，Neal。早安。我會這麼說：第一，當你回頭看我們原先的指引時，並沒有把戰爭納入考量，對吧？因此，這其實回到一個事實：我們顯然看到短期價格大幅飆升，長期遠期曲線（strip）也有不錯的上升。

But because it's being driven by geopolitical things, I think you're seeing a little bit more caution than you normally would from operators. One of the reasons we haven't made any substantive changes to guidance just yet is just that there is a lag factor, which is that I do think, and as I mentioned in my prepared comments, it's likely that we will see an increase in activity over time.

但由於這是由地緣政治因素所驅動，我認為你會看到營運商比平常更為謹慎。我們之所以尚未對指引做出任何實質性調整，其中一個原因是存在時間落後效應；我確實認為——也如我在事先準備發言中提到的——隨著時間推移，我們很可能會看到活動增加。

And that's really going to be driven by the long-term strip. The average spud to sales time is -- it can be faster, but I'd say, on average, it's sometimes around 150, 160 days. And so when you're making that decision today to pick up a rig to drill an additional pad, you're not capturing $100 spot oil, right? You have to make those decisions based on the future. And I think nobody from our operators, they don't want to have egg on their face and commit to a bunch of new activity, sign up a bunch of stuff and then have some resolution in the Gulf and suddenly, they feel like they're falling on their face.

而這將主要由長期遠期曲線所驅動。從開鑽（spud）到銷售的平均時間——雖然可能更快——但我認為平均有時大約在 150 到 160 天左右。因此，當你今天決定增加一座鑽機去鑽更多井場（pad）時，你並不是在鎖定 100 美元的即期油價，對吧？你必須根據未來來做決策。而我認為我們的營運商沒有人想讓自己難堪，承諾一大堆新增活動、簽下一堆合約，結果海灣局勢出現某種解決，然後突然覺得自己摔了一跤。

That being said, as we continue to draw oil out of storage, I think what's inevitable is that the long-term strip is going to have to reflect that, right? And so it's around $70 on a two-year basis today. I think the reality is that's probably enough in order to certainly incentivize activity, M&A, all those sort of things.

話雖如此，隨著我們持續從庫存中提取原油，我認為不可避免的是，長期遠期曲線必須反映這一點，對吧？因此，以兩年期來看，今天大約在 70 美元左右。我認為現實是，這個水準大概已足以確實激勵活動、併購（M&A）以及各種相關事項。

But I think you may see it creep higher just to really give people a buffer to ensure they can feel good about making those investments because that's really what drives that. For us, I think, frankly, just right now, what happened in early March really only starts to affect us right now, and we're really just asking for some grace to really see over the next several months of how this plays out. I do -- but I do think -- look, I think we've talked about this from a guidance perspective. I think we're certainly confident in the high end of the low end. And then I think from there, I think we just want a little bit more time in order to narrow that band.

但我認為你可能會看到它逐步走高，真正給大家一個緩衝，確保他們在做出那些投資決策時能更有把握，因為那才是驅動因素。就我們而言，坦白說，現在三月初發生的事情其實才剛開始影響到我們，而我們只是希望大家給我們一些空間，讓我們在接下來幾個月看看事情會如何發展。我確實——但我也確實認為——你看，我想我們已經從指引的角度談過這件事。我想我們對於「低端區間的高端」當然是有信心的。然後我想從那裡開始，我們只是希望再多一點時間，好把那個區間收斂得更窄。

But I think we'll certainly get it done by, call it, the second quarter.

但我想我們肯定會在——就說——第二季之前把它完成。

That's more than fair. And then my second question, just on -- typical on capital allocation. Specifically, I know talking to some of the operators, they seem to simply look at oftentimes just sort of mid-cycle pricing assumptions as what I'd call a primary driver between deciding if you're just leaning into share buybacks or more, I guess, ground game and M&A.

這非常合理。那我的第二個問題，還是關於——典型的資本配置。具體來說，我知道我跟一些營運商聊過，他們似乎常常只是看所謂的中周期價格假設，作為我所稱的主要驅動因素，用來決定是更偏向股票回購，還是更多地投入我想是地面作業（ground game）與併購（M&A）。

But again, you all seem unique because you seem to have more ground game opportunities than most. So again, I'm just thinking, when it comes to capital allocation, is it simply looking at a mid-cycle price and how cheap your shares are or versus a ground game return? Or what's involved in that?

但你們看起來又很特別，因為你們似乎比大多數人有更多地面作業的機會。所以我在想，談到資本配置時，是否只是看中周期價格以及你們的股票有多便宜，對比地面作業的報酬？還是說，這裡面還包含哪些因素？

Yeah, that's right. I mean I think what I'd tell you is that we have to manage a bunch of things, right, which is that like, at the end of the day, a share buyback is a high return proposition, especially when prices were low, and we did do some buybacks at the end of last year. But I'd also tell you that one of our goals as a company, one of the long-term goals is you really have to -- you have to grow your business over time, and it's not what a share buyback does where you just now own more of the same thing.

對，沒錯。我的意思是，我想我會告訴你的是，我們必須管理很多事情，對吧？也就是說，歸根結底，股票回購是一個高報酬的選項，尤其是在價格偏低的時候，而我們也確實在去年年底做了一些回購。但我也會告訴你，作為公司我們的一個目標、其中一個長期目標是，你真的必須——你必須隨著時間推進去成長你的業務；而股票回購並不是在做這件事，它只是讓你擁有更多同樣的東西。

And so ultimately, the opportunity when prices are low countercyclically to acquire assets, which is why we were really so busy in January and February, ultimately can provide some of the best long-term value when you talk about that mid-cycle. You know what I mean, I think oil was $57 in January or February, right?

因此，最終而言，當價格偏低時逆周期去收購資產的機會——這也是為什麼我們在一月和二月非常忙——從中周期的角度來看，最終可能提供一些最好的長期價值。你懂我的意思吧？我想一月或二月油價是 57 美元左右，對吧？

That's certainly below what we would view as a mid-cycle oil price. And so anything you're acquiring during that period of time is likely to deliver a really high return, as do buybacks. And I think it can all be part of the mix, but it's really about that balance.

那當然低於我們所認為的中周期油價。因此，在那段期間你收購的任何資產，很可能都能帶來非常高的報酬，回購也是如此。我認為兩者都可以成為組合的一部分，但關鍵在於那個平衡。

You got it. Thanks so much.

了解。非常感謝。

John Davenport, Johnson Rice.

John Davenport，Johnson Rice。

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my question. So from the previous quarter, you guys kind of beat on natural gas pricing, specifically in Appalachia. I was just curious if that's going to be an ongoing trend both for next quarter and the second half of the year? I know the strip for natural gas hasn't looked all too strong in the past couple of months. So just curious what your thoughts are on that.

嗨，早安，謝謝讓我提問。所以相較於上一季，你們在天然氣定價上算是超出預期，特別是在阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）。我只是好奇，這會不會成為下一季以及下半年持續的趨勢？我知道過去幾個月天然氣的遠期曲線（strip）看起來並不算強。所以想請教你們對此的看法。

Yeah. Well, as a two-stream reporter, it's a little bit different, right, because our NGL yield is in there. So what I would tell you is that, as it pertains specifically to Appalachia, certainly -- and some of our Appalachian gas is getting kind of on-water NGL prices, right? So we're certainly getting a huge benefit there.

是的。嗯，作為雙產品（two-stream）申報者，情況會有點不同，對吧？因為我們的 NGL 產率（yield）也包含在裡面。所以我會告訴你的是，就阿帕拉契亞而言，當然——我們有一部分阿帕拉契亞的天然氣能拿到接近沿海（on-water）的 NGL 價格，對吧？所以我們確實在那裡獲得了很大的好處。

Appalachian differential is the bulk of our prices at M2 and M2 has certainly been better. I mean it's one of the few basis areas where we're actually losing money on our hedges. So M2 has been sort of tighter and it appears even it obviously tends to dip seasonally, but it's certainly been better than what the averages have been for the last several years. And so we're definitely seeing an improvement there.

阿帕拉契亞的價差（differential）構成了我們在 M2 的大部分價格，而 M2 的表現確實更好。我的意思是，這是少數幾個基差區域之一，我們在避險上實際上是虧錢的。所以 M2 一直相對偏緊，且看起來即便它顯然會有季節性下滑，但仍然比過去幾年的平均水準要好得多。因此我們確實看到那裡有所改善。

In terms of our overall differentials, I think Chad talked a little bit about this in guidance, but I would tell you that we're seeing likely significantly better-than-expected oil differentials, which is really the biggest driver to our revenue given it's about 80% of our revenue.

就我們整體的價差而言，我想 Chad 在指引中稍微談到一些，但我會告訴你，我們看到油品價差很可能顯著優於預期；而鑑於原油約占我們營收的 80%，這其實是我們營收最大的驅動因素。

And then we're seeing, in aggregate, worse gas differentials, and that's 100% driven by Waha pricing. At the financial level, it's not having as much of an effect at the bottom line because of our hedge position. But at the end of the day, at the actual spot realizations, I think there's probably downward pressure in the short term. Obviously, I'm not -- I think there's something like 4 Bcf a day of expansions going on in the Permian. So I think it certainly will improve from some of the doldrums we've seen in April, but that's going to take some time this year.

然後我們看到，整體而言，天然氣價差更差，而這 100% 是由 Waha 定價所驅動。在財務層面，因為我們的避險部位，對最終盈餘（bottom line）的影響沒有那麼大。但歸根結底，就實際的現貨實現價格（spot realizations）而言，我認為短期內可能會有下行壓力。顯然，我不是——我想二疊紀（Permian）那邊大概有每天 40 億立方英尺（Bcf/d）的擴建正在進行。所以我認為它肯定會從我們在四月看到的一些低迷中改善，但今年這需要一些時間。

Okay. Yeah. Perfect. And I was also curious, you mentioned you are evaluating, call it, $10 billion in potential large M&A transactions. Curious where -- what the locations of those might be along with -- just give us some characteristics that you guys are looking for on those opportunities.

好的。是的。很好。另外我也好奇，你提到你們正在評估大約 100 億美元的潛在大型併購交易。想請教那些可能位於哪些地區，以及——能否提供一些你們在這些機會上所尋找的特徵？

I'll set the table, I'll let Adam finish it, but I'd say this, one, it's been -- and consistent with the last several years, it's definitely more diversified. There's some stuff all over the place. And as our capabilities have expanded, obviously, we've seen more than we ever have from, call it, Canada to every single subbasin in the US.

我先鋪陳一下，然後讓 Adam 補充，但我會這麼說：第一，這一直——而且與過去幾年一致——確實更加多元分散。各地都有一些案子。而隨著我們的能力擴張，顯然，我們看到的機會比以往任何時候都多，從加拿大到美國每一個子盆地（subbasin）。

What I would tell you is that we are seeing -- typically, people are willing to sell PDP latent properties even in low price environments, especially in the days of ABS and things like that, where they view they're getting relatively good prices for them. When the long-dated strip was $57 coming into this year, people -- that -- if you think about a DCF exercise, that's what drives the value of undeveloped inventory.

我會告訴你的是，我們看到——通常即便在低價格環境下，人們也願意出售 PDP（已探明已開發生產）但具有潛在價值（latent）的資產，尤其是在 ABS 等工具盛行的時代，他們認為自己能為這些資產拿到相對不錯的價格。當今年初長天期遠期曲線是 57 美元時，人們——如果你想做一個 DCF（折現現金流）分析，那個價格就是驅動未開發庫存（undeveloped inventory）價值的因素。

And so assets with strong undeveloped inventory, which are the characteristics we're looking for, really, we're starting to dry up on the oil side. That has obviously inverted completely. We're seeing higher-quality Permian assets in particular, coming to market. And so I think, for us, you are right now at a little bit of a -- it might seem counterintuitive given how high spot prices are. But with the strip closer to what we would view as a mid-cycle price today, it really does help the long-dated M&A.

因此，具備強勁未開發庫存的資產——也就是我們在尋找的特徵——在原油端其實開始變得稀缺。而這顯然已經完全反轉了。我們看到更高品質的資產，特別是二疊紀（Permian）的資產，正在進入市場。所以我認為，對我們來說，你現在處在一個——考量到現貨價格這麼高，這看起來可能有點違反直覺。但由於遠期曲線如今更接近我們所認為的中周期價格，這確實有助於長天期的併購（M&A）。

And so my point would be, if oil prices went from $100 to $75 in the spot market today, it's not going to have as much of an impact on the value of those assets versus that long-dated stripping to here. Adam, I don't know if you want to add to that?

所以我的重點是，如果今天現貨市場的油價從 100 美元跌到 75 美元，相較於這裡那種長天期的期貨曲線（strip），它對那些資產價值的影響不會那麼大。Adam，我不知道你要不要補充？

That's right. I mean I think the biggest difference that we're seeing between kind of 2025 and where we stand today has been kind of a pivot from the gas-weighted quality assets that we were looking at last year to more of the oil weighted, which is obviously expected.

沒錯。我的意思是，我認為我們看到的 2025 年與我們今天所處位置之間最大的差異，是從去年我們在看的偏天然氣權重的優質資產，轉向更偏石油權重的資產，這顯然是符合預期的。

I think you've got a number of operators post consolidation now starting to kind of socialize their assets. You've got private equity groups that are obviously taking a look at the strip and coming to market. And so based on my prepared remarks, you're certainly seeing a fair amount of variability, but the quality is starting to improve, especially on the oil side.

我認為在整併之後，現在有不少營運商開始把他們的資產拿出來「對外溝通／推介」。也有私募股權團隊顯然在看期貨曲線並進入市場。所以根據我事先準備的發言，你確實會看到相當程度的差異性，但資產品質正在開始改善，尤其是在石油端。

All right, excellent. Thank you, guys for taking my questions. That's all from me.

好，非常好。謝謝各位回答我的問題。我這邊就到此為止。

Paul Diamond, Citi.

Paul Diamond，花旗（Citi）。

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the call. I just wanted to quickly touch on you guys hedge book. Looking forward to the curve and the big -- I guess, big bug of swaps you guys hold, how should we think about any strategic shifts for the rest of the year given the volatility, and as you said before, the war that no one expected?

謝謝。早安。謝謝讓我參與這通電話。我想快速提一下你們的避險部位（hedge book）。往前看期貨曲線，以及你們持有的那一大批——我想是很大一筆——換期（swap）部位，在目前波動之下、以及如你先前所說那場沒人預期的戰爭背景下，我們應該如何看待你們今年剩餘時間可能的策略調整？

Yeah. I don't think that you'll see much in terms of fireworks in terms of the swaptions. We don't really have that many swaptions remaining this year to be candid. And what few ones we have will either be exercised or roll forward. But I wouldn't expect any major shifts to our hedge book specifically for this year.

是的。我不認為你會看到在換期選擇權（swaptions）方面有什麼大動作。坦白說，我們今年剩下的換期選擇權其實不多。而我們僅有的那幾筆，不是會被行使，就是會往後展期。但我不預期今年我們的避險部位會有任何重大調整。

And then for next year, we've started hedging, Paul, but not in a significant action at this point. And I think it's just -- we're just trying to be patient as we go through the -- we really want to see the conclusion of what happens in the Middle East before we really make a call on 2027.

至於明年，我們已經開始做避險了，Paul，但目前還沒有採取很顯著的動作。我想這只是——我們只是想在這段期間保持耐心——我們真的想先看到中東局勢最後會如何收尾，才會真正對 2027 年做出判斷。

Got it. Makes perfect sense. And then as you guys talked about the net wells in process, the current split is I guess third Permian, third Williston and then split even otherwise. Any reason to think with what you see in [is down range] right now that, that shifts? Or is that kind of -- should we think about that as more locked in for the next year or so?

了解。非常合理。另外你們提到在建中的淨井數（net wells in process），目前的分布大概是三分之一在 Permian、三分之一在 Williston，其餘再平均分配。就你們現在看到的 [is down range] 情況，有沒有理由認為這個分布會改變？還是說——我們應該把它視為未來一年左右大致已經鎖定？

Being an expert, I'll leave it to you.

你是專家，這題我就交給你了。

Yeah. I mean, I guess what I would be looking towards is probably more like the election activity, right? And so if you look at that, you're seeing about two-thirds related to the Permian and you're starting to see a fair amount of Williston acceleration as well. And so I would expect kind of the Permian and the Williston to be the front runners.

是的。我的意思是，我想我會更關注的可能是選擇權到期／行使（election）活動，對吧？如果你看那個，你會看到大約三分之二與 Permian 相關，同時你也開始看到 Williston 有相當程度的加速。所以我會預期 Permian 和 Williston 會是領先者。

Obviously, we've got a fair amount of activity in Appalachia, and that will also be dependent on, obviously, the transaction that we just closed as well as the ground game leasing program that we've got in place. And then the Uinta is really just kind of steady as it goes. So Permian and Williston is probably where I'd be looking to.

當然，我們在 Appalachia 也有相當多的活動，而那也會取決於——顯然——我們剛完成交割的那筆交易，以及我們已經在執行的地面端租賃（leasing）計畫。至於 Uinta，基本上就是維持穩定、按部就班。所以我大概會把重點放在 Permian 和 Williston。

Yeah. And I'd say, I think my guess would be just given the gas situation in the Permian right now, that the acceleration you see there really is probably later in the year just as you get closer to a resolution there. And on the Uinta, I think there are some options for some acceleration, but we'll have to see.

是的。我會說，我的猜測是，考量 Permian 目前的天然氣狀況，你在那裡看到的加速，可能更會發生在今年稍晚、也就是更接近那邊問題解決的時點。至於 Uinta，我認為有一些加速的選項，但我們還得再觀察。

Got it. I appreciate the time. I'll leave it there.

了解。感謝撥冗。我就先到這裡。

Noel Parks, Tuohy Brothers.

Noel Parks，Tuohy Brothers。

Hi, good morning. I was wondering, and it's definitely interesting to hear about the different parties, the private side coming to the table and so forth and -- but I was wondering, for operators, where do you think things stand now around sort of basin rationalization in the wake of some of the big transactions of the last year or so now being fully digested? And I guess I'm just curious if you think overall across your basins, you're seeing operators more inclined to sort of expand their footprint or sort of core up and narrow them down right now?

嗨，早安。我在想，而且聽到不同參與方、私募端進場等等確實很有意思——但我想問的是，對於營運商而言，在過去一年左右一些大型交易已經被完全消化之後，你認為目前在所謂盆地版圖合理化（basin rationalization）方面進展到哪一步？我也好奇，整體來看在你們覆蓋的各個盆地中，你是否看到營運商更傾向於擴大版圖，還是更傾向於把資產「做核心化」、縮小並聚焦？

Yeah. No, I don't know if I want to speak for them completely. I would say this that we -- Adam had talked extensively last year about that he thought that post a lot of this consolidation, we would see rationalization. We are starting to see that. So we're seeing several large companies put packages of non-core assets sometimes in good basins to sell.

是的。不，我不確定我是否想完全替他們發言。但我會這麼說——Adam 去年已經很深入談過，他認為在這波整併之後，我們會看到合理化。我們確實開始看到這種情況。所以我們看到幾家大型公司把一些非核心資產打包出售——有時候甚至是在不錯的盆地裡。

And so I do think that we're seeing some rationalization. We're seeing that in the Permian, the Eagle Ford, I'm trying to think of where else. I think there's a large Williston package coming at some point this year. And so we're definitely seeing that to some degree. I think, look, consolidation is a trend that I think continues.

所以我確實認為我們正在看到一些合理化。我們在 Permian、Eagle Ford 都看到了，我在想還有哪些地方。我認為今年某個時點會有一個大型的 Williston 資產包推出。所以我們確實在某種程度上看到這個趨勢。我想，整併是一個我認為仍會持續的趨勢。

It both benefits and hurts us sometimes. Obviously, it tends to hurt us in the sense that you probably have less aggregate activity, but it helps us from a cost efficiency and from a returns perspective. And so I don't know if you want to add to that, Adam?

它有時對我們有利、有時也不利。顯然，不利之處在於整體活動量可能會變少，但它在成本效率與報酬率角度又對我們有幫助。所以 Adam，你要不要補充？

Yeah. I mean, going back to your initial question, I would just say that two things can be true at the same time. And ultimately, it's going to be dependent on the philosophical approach from the operator, right? And who did they consolidate with, where are those positions? And then ultimately, what does that integration difficulty look like?

是的。我的意思是，回到你一開始的問題，我會說兩件事可以同時成立。最終會取決於營運商的理念與策略取向，對吧？以及他們是跟誰整併、那些部位在哪裡。然後最終，整合的難度會是什麼樣子？

Because from our experience in talking with our operating partners who have gone through this, some can go very smoothly and others cannot. And so I think you're going to see some large asset packages, but then you're also going to see other operators that might take small pieces, non-op and kind of just kind of layer that out into the market kind of as they go. So I think you're going to see a little bit of everything.

因為以我們與經歷過這些的營運夥伴交流的經驗來看，有些整合可以非常順利，有些則不然。所以我認為你會看到一些大型資產包，但同時你也會看到其他營運商可能會拿出一些小塊、非營運（non-op）的部位，並在過程中逐步把它們分層釋出到市場。所以我認為你會看到各種情況都會發生。

Got it. And I'm just wondering, are you seeing anything happening kind of in the sort of off the beaten path gas plays? I'm thinking a little bit about Mid-Con, Rockies, just as people look ahead to longer-term supply and sort of thinking about underutilized infrastructure and so forth and maybe some capital finding its way there?

了解。我也想問，你們是否看到一些比較「非主流」的天然氣區塊有什麼動靜？我想到的是 Mid-Con、Rockies，因為大家在展望更長期的供給時，會去思考未充分利用的基礎設施等等，或許也會有一些資本流向那邊？

Yeah. I mean, look, there have been some major consolidations on the private side in like Rockies gas and some of the legacy assets, and there have been some companies that have put together some really good assets. And in some cases, some of the wild swings in differentials out there over the last couple of years have made those really, really sound investments. I'm not sure that's necessarily something for us per se. And I say I'm not sure we really haven't evaluated a ton of it.

是的。我的意思是，你看，私募那邊在落磯山脈天然氣以及一些既有資產上，已經出現了一些重大的整併，也有一些公司把一些非常不錯的資產組合起來。而且在某些情況下，過去幾年各地價差（differentials）的劇烈波動，讓那些成為非常、非常穩健的投資。我不確定那是否必然是我們要做的事。我之所以說不確定，是因為我們其實沒有評估太多。

So we don't -- things like the San Juan Gas Basin or the Piceance, we just -- we've never really evaluated them at any extent. So I can't really speak to them. I'd say this in general, though, if you think about the life cycle of shale, and this is consistent with my public comments everywhere.

所以我們沒有——像聖胡安天然氣盆地（San Juan Gas Basin）或皮森斯（Piceance）這些，我們就是——從來沒有在任何程度上真正評估過。所以我沒辦法真的評論它們。不過一般來說，我會這麼說：如果你去想頁岩的生命週期，而這也和我在各處公開的評論一致。

In general, there is more life in the core basins of gas in the US than there is in the core basins in oil. And so I think the necessity to really step out isn't quite there. We have decades of gas inventory internally here alone. We don't really write in our core basins. I don't know if you'd want to add to that.

一般而言，美國天然氣的核心盆地比石油的核心盆地更有生命力。所以我認為，真的要大幅跨出去的必要性並沒有那麼強。光是我們內部就有數十年的天然氣庫存可供開發。我們在核心盆地其實不太需要去外擴。我不知道你是否想補充。

No. I think the only other thing I would add is, I mean, you obviously have seen kind of the ABS market come into play with maybe some more PDP-heavy type assets, Mid-Con, Eagle Ford, things like that. And typically, not the sandbox that we play in, but we're always having conversations about how we could potentially be helpful there. So we'll continue to explore it. So --

沒有。我想我唯一要補充的是，你顯然也看到ABS市場開始發揮作用，可能是一些更偏PDP（已開發生產中）比重較高的資產，例如Mid-Con、Eagle Ford之類。而通常那不是我們會玩的沙坑，但我們一直在討論我們是否可能在那裡提供協助。所以我們會持續探索。所以--

Yeah. I mean we've done a number of -- as you know, we don't have any assets in the Mid-Con. We've have done dozens of evaluations at this point. And it's just a more complex area. It's not really as uniform. And so it doesn't mean it's bad, but I think we'd have to be really highly selective if we ever enter that basin just -- with them, and most likely, we would do it with an operating partner.

是的。我的意思是，我們做過不少——如你所知，我們在Mid-Con沒有任何資產。到目前為止我們已經做了數十次評估。而那就是一個更複雜的區域。它並沒有那麼一致、那麼均質。所以這不代表它不好，但我認為如果我們要進入那個盆地，我們必須非常高度地挑選——而且多半會和一個營運夥伴一起做。

And then what are we looking at relative to what's in our own backyard.

然後再看相對於我們自家後院有哪些機會。

Correct. And so far, it has sort of lost in the tug of war from a return on capital perspective that is amenable forever. It's just we have yet to find an asset that really --

沒錯。而到目前為止，從資本報酬率的角度來看，它在拉鋸戰中有點落敗——也就是我們長期都能接受的那種報酬。只是我們至今仍未找到一個資產真的--

Compete.

能競爭。

Compete it, that's right.

能跟它競爭，沒錯。

Terrific. Thanks a lot.

太好了。非常感謝。

Phillips Johnston, Capital One.

Phillips Johnston，Capital One。

Hey. Thanks for the time. Just wanted to follow up on the earlier question about the oil swaptions and just ask about some of the accounting nuances for those swaptions. I think most of us understand that the vast majority of those swaptions that expire at the end of this year are required to be listed for 2026, even though the majority of them would actually turn into swaps for '27 or even beyond rather than this year if they're ultimately exercised. So I guess I understand that nuance, but I just kind of wanted to square that with the makeup of the hedge liability on the balance sheet where it looks like close to 65% of the hedge liability is classified as current.

嗨。謝謝你們撥時間。我想跟進先前關於原油swaption的問題，並請教這些swaption在會計處理上的一些細節。我想我們大多數人都理解：今年底到期的那一大部分swaption，雖然其中多數若最終被行使，實際上會在2027年甚至更晚才轉成swap，而不是今年，但仍必須列為2026年的項目。所以我大概理解那個細節，但我想把它和資產負債表上的避險負債結構對起來：看起來接近65%的避險負債被分類為流動。

Yeah. That's because of the expiry, right? Just as you stated, Phillips, right? We have to -- because of when that expiry is being, in some instances, or most instances 12/31/2026, it's got to sit into the current bucket there.

是的。那是因為到期日，對吧？就像你說的，Phillips，對吧？我們必須——因為到期日是在某些情況下、或多數情況下是2026/12/31，所以它必須放在流動項目那一欄。

Okay, yeah. So that makes sense. It's basically the same --

好的，對。那就說得通了。基本上是同一個--

Yeah. For accounting purposes, it's got to be treated for the bank's counterparty election date.

是的。就會計目的而言，必須依銀行對手方的選擇日期（counterparty election date）來處理。

But it's not really how it works.

但實務上不是那樣運作的。

That's not how it works. No. And you'll see in our 10-K -- or 10-Q, sorry, some updated disclosures with respect to kind of how the swaptions roll out. But again, like what we've mentioned before, Phillips, we certainly -- we actively manage this portfolio.

實務上不是那樣。不是。而你會在我們的10-K——或10-Q，抱歉——看到一些更新的揭露，說明swaption大致如何展期/滾動。但同樣地，就像我們之前提過的，Phillips，我們確實——會主動管理這個投資組合。

It's a nothing burger to be candid.

坦白說，這根本不算什麼事。

Yeah, it is.

對，確實。

Okay, cool. Just checking on that. Thanks very much, guys.

好的，很好。我只是確認一下。非常感謝，各位。

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Mr. Nick O'Grady for closing remarks.

我這邊顯示目前沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回給Nick O'Grady先生做結語。

Thanks very much for your time this morning. We look forward to talking to you in the coming weeks. Appreciate it.

非常感謝各位今天早上的時間。我們期待在接下來幾週再與各位交流。感謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。